危机来了该怎么办？经历过2008年的老司机告诉你_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

危机来了该怎么办？经历过2008年的老司机告诉你

付鹏的财经世界2020-03-18

12年前，我经历人生中第一场金融危机的时候，曾经的Boss教会了我一句重要的话：应对流动性风险要选择和央行站一起，应对衰退风险要选择和财政部站一起。中央银行在应对危机的时候有着两个重要的职能：其中一个最重要的是在金融市场上提供最后的借款人角色，在这方面你可以质疑很多EM国家的中央银行这个最后借款人的角色，他们需要考虑资金流动，需要考虑资金清算，需要考虑储备资产等等许多的因素，但是美联储在美元货币...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

中国好韭菜哟
·2020-03-19
美国顺势挤泡沫，全世界帮忙买单而已。真当美联储没办法吗？
回复
点赞
举报
Serena23
·2020-03-19
应对流动性风险要选择和央行站一起，应对衰退风险要选择和财政部站一起。
回复
点赞
举报
收起
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-03-19
  回复
  举报
张西存
·2020-03-19
有经验有头脑👍
回复
点赞
举报
OUYANG768
·2020-03-18
恐慌会一直飚上去吗？
回复
点赞
举报
天天天天涨停板
·2020-03-18
没明确的观点，不晓得想表达啥，谁不知道现在是危机啊，不需要谁站出来专门强调下吧
回复
2
举报
大宝_b_
·2020-03-18
我想说美联储再借债不怕美国忽然失去every thing吗？！
回复
2
举报
jjx1208
·2020-03-18
说得好
回复
点赞
举报
收起
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-03-18
  回复
  举报
天罡金斗
·2020-03-18
当前的危机忽视了病毒单纯的说央行财政部没意义，卫生部才是解决危机的关键！
回复
1
举报
食西北风咯
·2020-03-18
危机就危机呗，危机我的钱才能借出去，才能收利息
回复
2
举报
闪电云游
·2020-03-18
观点不明确，两边都说。只是明确了一点长期是衰退，这个观点一般人都能想明白，末了，老司机自己买了对冲工具，这难道是建议大家试试的节奏
回复
3
举报
Tailei
·2020-03-18
有病啊，这次根本不是基本面问题，是病毒病毒啊！
回复
点赞
举报
老魏88
·2020-03-18
但是现在的流动性问题得不到解决，资产端的奔溃会引起大规模的赎回潮，这不解决根本没办法缓解银行钱到市场的问题。
回复
1
举报
恒跌
·2020-03-18
中国集资诈骗风险，已经是道德沦丧地步！前五年的事情了，，，该传染了！全国连锁加盟集资诈骗跑路，被坑过的懂
回复
2
举报
锅盖面_6464
·2020-03-18
不做空美国股市就更多跳楼的了
回复
1
举报
收起
- Mr_李_0424回复锅盖面_6464:
  看好机会。挣只是多少问题
  2020-03-19
  回复
  举报
- 锅盖面_6464:
  你做多试试，挣钱不
  2020-03-19
  回复
  举报
- Mr_李_0424:
  你厉害你去做空美国股市吧加油。
  2020-03-18
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

关于我们·老虎社区守则·老虎社区账号管理规范·老虎社区服务协议·老虎社区隐私政策

公司名称：北京至简风宜信息技术有限公司

违法和不良信息投诉：010-5681-3562（工作时间9:30-18:30）

邮箱：service@laohu8.com

营业执照：91110105MA01A4U55R

ICP备：京ICP备18016422号

网安备：京公网安备11010502036490

关注我们

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105271914?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42ad05de22d96b714ae597f00bdbeaa5","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2020-03-18 21:47","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1105271914","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"危机来了该怎么办？经历过2008年的老司机告诉你","media":"付鹏的财经世界","content":"<div>\n<p>12年前，我经历人生中第一场金融危机的时候，曾经的Boss教会了我一句重要的话：应对流动性风险要选择和央行站一起，应对衰退风险要选择和财政部站一起。中央银行在应对危机的时候有着两个重要的职能：其中一个最重要的是在金融市场上提供最后的借款人角色，在这方面你可以质疑很多EM国家的中央银行这个最后借款人的角色，他们需要考虑资金流动，需要考虑资金清算，需要考虑储备资产等等许多的因素，但是美联储在美元货币...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-KQoQI1Gol5aUO_gGuvlJw\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fpdcjsj","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>危机来了该怎么办？经历过2008年的老司机告诉你</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n危机来了该怎么办？经历过2008年的老司机告诉你\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-18 21:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-KQoQI1Gol5aUO_gGuvlJw><strong>付鹏的财经世界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12年前，我经历人生中第一场金融危机的时候，曾经的Boss教会了我一句重要的话：应对流动性风险要选择和央行站一起，应对衰退风险要选择和财政部站一起。中央银行在应对危机的时候有着两个重要的职能：其中一个最重要的是在金融市场上提供最后的借款人角色，在这方面你可以质疑很多EM国家的中央银行这个最后借款人的角色，他们需要考虑资金流动，需要考虑资金清算，需要考虑储备资产等等许多的因素，但是美联储在美元货币...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-KQoQI1Gol5aUO_gGuvlJw\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-KQoQI1Gol5aUO_gGuvlJw","article_id":"1105271914","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/42ad05de22d96b714ae597f00bdbeaa5"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105271914","pubTimestamp":1584539228,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fpdcjsj","name":"付鹏的财经世界"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"应对流动性风险选择和央行站一起；应对衰退风险选择和财政部站一起。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"What should I do when the crisis comes? The old driver who experienced 2008 told you","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17b373909f452cf593ea38277d48051b","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"12年前，我经历人生中第一场金融危机的时候，曾经的Boss教会了我一句重要的话：应对流动性风险要选择和央行站一起，应对衰退风险要选择和财政部站一起。中央银行在应对危机的时候有着两个重要的职能：其中一个最重要的是在金融市场上提供最后的借款人角色，在这方面你可以质疑很多EM国家的中央银行这个最后借款人的角色，他们需要考虑资金流动，需要考虑资金清算，需要考虑储备资产等等许多的因素，但是美联储在美元货币体系中的角色是毋庸置疑的，面对着FED的时候你需要考虑的是中央银行想不想做，什么时候想做，而不是他能不能做的到的问题。另一个是中央银行货币政策针对经济层面的反馈，这个反馈你就需要考虑是否货币政策一定对经济有作用，简单说就是货币政策的有效性的质疑。先考虑第一件事情，2008年那样的流动性断裂的情况会重演么，美联储和美国财政部这帮政治经济的精英们真的无能为力了么？2008年的经验告诉我们，对于美联储而言，市场的流动性永远不是问题，工具箱里面工具不够了也不用担心，FED是整个美元货币体系的创造者，各种工具可以随时创造出来，唯一要考虑的是此时要不要救助，怎么救助，救助是否及时的问题。2008年，当时的保尔森团队在道德风险，政治风险，救助手段时机上面都有所犹豫，整个事件发生迅速，滞后的选择导致了市场风险的急增，但最终还是选择力挽狂澜，在最后的行动中似乎也有着一种政治考量，倒逼政客们面对巨大危机时不得不站在一起，这段内容在电影《大而不倒》中有着详细的描述：一个2008年经历过来的老兵能够分享的就是，我认为目前不会任其恶行发展失控的可能，也不会像当年那样有点犹豫不决，现在的FED在这两个方面都有着2008年的经验，也有着运用娴熟的各种工具，资产负债表可以随时的向你敞开，我们需要等待的只是时间点，也就是什么时候他看到并且意识到问题的严重，并且开始立刻做出干预的决定。左侧提前发现问题，埋伏进去，守到波动率的崛起，风险的释放，这是电影《大空头》里面三位主人公的做法，当然关于如何全身而退这件事，电影中Mark的做法是最津津乐道的，其实也是大Boss们当年的做法，当风险已经开始的时候，他们在盯着的是央行政府们的行动。图：2008年美国财政部和美联储的救助 数据：Extra3000在2008年底流动性风险蔓延席卷着整个华尔街的时候，当Mark的对冲基金赚的盆满钵满的时候，他却在天台上喝着咖啡，紧紧的盯着对面的白宫（场景设定）在做出下一步如何决策的时候，Mark有了这么一段内容：「保尔森和伯南克刚刚离开了白宫，政府会有救市措施的，全卖了吧」，在看到财政部，美联储，白宫完成沟通之后，他选择落袋为安。放到目前我们面临的情况，你需要分清楚我们究竟是面临着金融危机还是面临着经济危机，因为从交易层面这是包含着两个交易：一个是交易流动危机反馈（波动率），一个是交易经济危机（长期衰退）。疫情的触发对于经济长期衰退的影响，金融市场波动率开始上升（VIX近端从15-30），直到此时即便美股下跌，但仍然是一个正常的经济恶化导致的市场修正的过程，美联储常规紧急降息操作应对。在这之后也就是过去上周五个交易日里面发生的事情：从疫情+油价，长期衰退和通缩预期推动长期债券下行，长期债券引发配置问题，进而导致股债双杀的局面，引发了流动性的收紧。这五天市场的波动率明显的开始异常，也就是很多人看段子一样五天经历了一辈子难得的各种熔断，VIX波动率近端快速的从40冲击历史性新高70+，这种对于流动性收紧甚至是进一步演变为断裂的恐慌蔓延。市场本身就有着非常强的自我实现和强化功能，这和任何历次风险波动加大的时候都会出现一样的情况，这时候及时的关键的降低波动水平的手段就需要央行和财政等做出迅速的响应。也是对应着周五，周末开始美联储连续的行动释放大招，从除了市场都看到了的降息和量宽资产负债表扩张平稳长端债券市场风险，discount window直接降到0.25%，intra-day credit和RRR的安排，这些工具的敞开使用其实核心的目的就是是的债券市场问题得到兜底，五天时间，fed和全球央行已经看到且释放出明确的行动，央行提供最后的借款人角色，进而也可以使得流动性问题可控。图：VIX波动率的super back曲线，三个月合约对应波动率 数据：路浮特EIKON市场层面和经济层面这两个问题一定要有所区分，很多担心的人会说，疫情还在恶化，美国还在继续经济层面恶化，没错，这都是正确的，简单说暴跌和阴跌的区别是一个是流动性问题，一个是经济层面的问题，虽然彼此交错，但又有所区分。美联储的出手主要目的是防御是流动性问题，解决债券市场结构性问题导致的连锁反应，其次才是说货币政策能否对经济有所帮助（当然这一点基本上边际效应已经很弱了），这种及时出手的方法，应该能够缓解全球金融市场层面的风险，这并不是说会导致美股大幅度暴涨，准确的说是将高波动率的恐慌和担忧拉回来，用波动率去描述市场层面则对于管理者来说则是更为准确的形容，比如当年股灾时候的救市机制等，其本身目的并不是直接的去影响市场的涨跌，而是压低市场的波动率水平，让市场能够在合理的风险偏好水平下重新的去寻找均衡关系。无论是疫情的冲击，还是长期经济结构中的矛盾关系，在经济层面引发的长期衰退如果发生，那将是数月甚至是数年的持续情景，但金融市场这样的波动率水平则不可能持续维持如此之高的水平。图：VIX波动率的super back曲线，三个月合约对应波动率 数据：路浮特EIKON从2008年得到的经验来看，在金融市场层面紧急（VIX近端已经接近历史性记录）的时候，看到美联储，美国财政部，美国白宫共同开始在这周末行动，我倒愿意在这个水平上考虑平掉之前对冲SPXETF的作多波动率的组合，尝试一些期权或者结构short的组合，从用波动率对冲金融市场风险，转向在政府央行的安抚下市场会平复一下，然后在合理的波动率水平下真正的去评估经济的实质性冲击和衰退的力度，而交易长期衰退的方向。不担心流动性危机，真正要面对的是经济危机2008年的债券定价，经济长期和通胀长期的根基没有太多的伤害，更多的是流动性危机，现在我们面临的我认为不担心流动性危机，真正要面对的是未来数月甚至是数年的经济危机。美联储可以解决市场流动性带来的波动率问题，但是货币政策对于经济层面可能的作用将会相对有限，波动率降下来一些后，在这之后的数月里，将坐好的是真正经济层面钝刀子割的准备，此时财政手段才是唯一能够应对长期经济的衰退冲击的方法，当然类似新西兰这样财政赤字率不高的国家当然可以率先行动，而对于美国而言，我觉得虽然庞大的财政赤字压力是个问题，但是只要美元债务的信仰还能维持，财政政策将会是后面对于经济冲击应对的关键观察点所在。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":967683385,"gmtCreate":1584590837547,"gmtModify":1704355156683,"author":{"id":"3527643661135966","authorId":"3527643661135966","name":"中国好韭菜哟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527643661135966","authorIdStr":"3527643661135966"},"htmlText":"美国顺势挤泡沫，全世界帮忙买单而已。真当美联储没办法吗？","listText":"美国顺势挤泡沫，全世界帮忙买单而已。真当美联储没办法吗？","text":"美国顺势挤泡沫，全世界帮忙买单而已。真当美联储没办法吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967683385","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967851172,"gmtCreate":1584575974396,"gmtModify":1704355057660,"author":{"id":"3546508685548910","authorId":"3546508685548910","name":"Serena23","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/126e0b71980a6068e3894b1a06199c62","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3546508685548910","authorIdStr":"3546508685548910"},"htmlText":"应对流动性风险要选择和央行站一起，应对衰退风险要选择和财政部站一起。","listText":"应对流动性风险要选择和央行站一起，应对衰退风险要选择和财政部站一起。","text":"应对流动性风险要选择和央行站一起，应对衰退风险要选择和财政部站一起。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967851172","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2252058,"gmtCreate":1584581791611,"gmtModify":1584581791611,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":967851172,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967829456,"gmtCreate":1584570324775,"gmtModify":1704355041486,"author":{"id":"3547332089840549","authorId":"3547332089840549","name":"张西存","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547332089840549","authorIdStr":"3547332089840549"},"htmlText":"有经验有头脑👍","listText":"有经验有头脑👍","text":"有经验有头脑👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967829456","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967183828,"gmtCreate":1584545857064,"gmtModify":1704354877144,"author":{"id":"3433322462741405","authorId":"3433322462741405","name":"OUYANG768","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9b18e7b2f3ba7b9be8892ea56378dc9","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3433322462741405","authorIdStr":"3433322462741405"},"htmlText":"恐慌会一直飚上去吗？","listText":"恐慌会一直飚上去吗？","text":"恐慌会一直飚上去吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967183828","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967189205,"gmtCreate":1584545812807,"gmtModify":1704354876278,"author":{"id":"3513743822381928","authorId":"3513743822381928","name":"天天天天涨停板","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d3bcdd2c49a8ec314d84d8d0f1b24e","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3513743822381928","authorIdStr":"3513743822381928"},"htmlText":"没明确的观点，不晓得想表达啥，谁不知道现在是危机啊，不需要谁站出来专门强调下吧","listText":"没明确的观点，不晓得想表达啥，谁不知道现在是危机啊，不需要谁站出来专门强调下吧","text":"没明确的观点，不晓得想表达啥，谁不知道现在是危机啊，不需要谁站出来专门强调下吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967189205","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967116201,"gmtCreate":1584545332403,"gmtModify":1704354866596,"author":{"id":"3545621684885120","authorId":"3545621684885120","name":"大宝_b_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51e09c93b4b8c2bf062b64ba2ae1eb2d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3545621684885120","authorIdStr":"3545621684885120"},"htmlText":"我想说美联储再借债不怕美国忽然失去every thing吗？！","listText":"我想说美联储再借债不怕美国忽然失去every thing吗？！","text":"我想说美联储再借债不怕美国忽然失去every thing吗？！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967116201","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967104284,"gmtCreate":1584543170248,"gmtModify":1704354827683,"author":{"id":"3543378781230913","authorId":"3543378781230913","name":"jjx1208","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7d275ddd6eaa951e9e7ea9bff0314b4","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3543378781230913","authorIdStr":"3543378781230913"},"htmlText":"说得好","listText":"说得好","text":"说得好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967104284","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2249551,"gmtCreate":1584544133932,"gmtModify":1584544133932,"authorId":3527667803686145,"author":{"id":3527667803686145,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorId":3527667803686145,"name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":967104284,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/934879903\">老虎社区创作指引</a>"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967375569,"gmtCreate":1584542139051,"gmtModify":1704354813570,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"天罡金斗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4524b08c65a05c8fcd92c2e46a702f51","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a877921e5ed88700305c37737450d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3531263342349168","authorIdStr":"3531263342349168"},"htmlText":"当前的危机忽视了病毒单纯的说央行财政部没意义，卫生部才是解决危机的关键！","listText":"当前的危机忽视了病毒单纯的说央行财政部没意义，卫生部才是解决危机的关键！","text":"当前的危机忽视了病毒单纯的说央行财政部没意义，卫生部才是解决危机的关键！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967375569","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967375043,"gmtCreate":1584542077682,"gmtModify":1704354812195,"author":{"id":"3505531086811883","authorId":"3505531086811883","name":"食西北风咯","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3505531086811883","authorIdStr":"3505531086811883"},"htmlText":"危机就危机呗，危机我的钱才能借出去，才能收利息","listText":"危机就危机呗，危机我的钱才能借出去，才能收利息","text":"危机就危机呗，危机我的钱才能借出去，才能收利息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967375043","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967347522,"gmtCreate":1584541205466,"gmtModify":1704354803211,"author":{"id":"3506756308799324","authorId":"3506756308799324","name":"闪电云游","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3506756308799324","authorIdStr":"3506756308799324"},"htmlText":"观点不明确，两边都说。只是明确了一点长期是衰退，这个观点一般人都能想明白，末了，老司机自己买了对冲工具，这难道是建议大家试试的节奏","listText":"观点不明确，两边都说。只是明确了一点长期是衰退，这个观点一般人都能想明白，末了，老司机自己买了对冲工具，这难道是建议大家试试的节奏","text":"观点不明确，两边都说。只是明确了一点长期是衰退，这个观点一般人都能想明白，末了，老司机自己买了对冲工具，这难道是建议大家试试的节奏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967347522","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967347267,"gmtCreate":1584541201859,"gmtModify":1704354803039,"author":{"id":"124716528334016","authorId":"124716528334016","name":"Tailei","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"124716528334016","authorIdStr":"124716528334016"},"htmlText":"有病啊，这次根本不是基本面问题，是病毒病毒啊！","listText":"有病啊，这次根本不是基本面问题，是病毒病毒啊！","text":"有病啊，这次根本不是基本面问题，是病毒病毒啊！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967347267","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967345789,"gmtCreate":1584541052541,"gmtModify":1704354800269,"author":{"id":"3493268498458973","authorId":"3493268498458973","name":"老魏88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6295840391b9cdc17115677ba51429c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493268498458973","authorIdStr":"3493268498458973"},"htmlText":"但是现在的流动性问题得不到解决，资产端的奔溃会引起大规模的赎回潮，这不解决根本没办法缓解银行钱到市场的问题。","listText":"但是现在的流动性问题得不到解决，资产端的奔溃会引起大规模的赎回潮，这不解决根本没办法缓解银行钱到市场的问题。","text":"但是现在的流动性问题得不到解决，资产端的奔溃会引起大规模的赎回潮，这不解决根本没办法缓解银行钱到市场的问题。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967345789","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967354573,"gmtCreate":1584540264192,"gmtModify":1704354787795,"author":{"id":"3464587978783849","authorId":"3464587978783849","name":"恒跌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1979ed439107058a8ba67c3a90477ff6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464587978783849","authorIdStr":"3464587978783849"},"htmlText":"中国集资诈骗风险，已经是道德沦丧地步！前五年的事情了，，，该传染了！全国连锁加盟集资诈骗跑路，被坑过的懂","listText":"中国集资诈骗风险，已经是道德沦丧地步！前五年的事情了，，，该传染了！全国连锁加盟集资诈骗跑路，被坑过的懂","text":"中国集资诈骗风险，已经是道德沦丧地步！前五年的事情了，，，该传染了！全国连锁加盟集资诈骗跑路，被坑过的懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967354573","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":967355640,"gmtCreate":1584540220280,"gmtModify":1704354786047,"author":{"id":"3481498182733167","authorId":"3481498182733167","name":"锅盖面_6464","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04b2cfe3895d4e880d09935fba09f66","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3481498182733167","authorIdStr":"3481498182733167"},"htmlText":"不做空美国股市就更多跳楼的了","listText":"不做空美国股市就更多跳楼的了","text":"不做空美国股市就更多跳楼的了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967355640","repostId":1105271914,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":2252517,"gmtCreate":1584589985516,"gmtModify":1584589985516,"authorId":3529153622062542,"author":{"id":3529153622062542,"idStr":"3529153622062542","authorId":3529153622062542,"name":"Mr_李_0424","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188b97fc55a95013ded41cc920072b6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3481498182733167,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3481498182733167,"idStr":"3481498182733167","authorId":3481498182733167,"name":"锅盖面_6464","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04b2cfe3895d4e880d09935fba09f66","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":967355640,"type":1,"supId":2249430,"prevId":2251625,"content":"看好机会。挣只是多少问题","text":"看好机会。挣只是多少问题","html":"看好机会。挣只是多少问题"},{"id":2251625,"gmtCreate":1584572662182,"gmtModify":1584572662182,"authorId":3481498182733167,"author":{"id":3481498182733167,"idStr":"3481498182733167","authorId":3481498182733167,"name":"锅盖面_6464","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c04b2cfe3895d4e880d09935fba09f66","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":967355640,"type":1,"supId":2249430,"prevId":0,"content":"你做多试试，挣钱不","text":"你做多试试，挣钱不","html":"你做多试试，挣钱不"},{"id":2249430,"gmtCreate":1584543110295,"gmtModify":1584543110295,"authorId":3529153622062542,"author":{"id":3529153622062542,"idStr":"3529153622062542","authorId":3529153622062542,"name":"Mr_李_0424","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/188b97fc55a95013ded41cc920072b6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":967355640,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"你厉害你去做空美国股市吧加油。","text":"你厉害你去做空美国股市吧加油。","html":"你厉害你去做空美国股市吧加油。"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":90,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":16,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}