牛市里，如何成为少数赚到钱的人？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

牛市里，如何成为少数赚到钱的人？

苏宁金融研究院2020-07-14

作者｜苏宁金融研究院副院长薛洪言让基金经理为你赶车艾·里斯在《人生定位》中提出了赛马理论：如果人生是一场赛马，赢得比赛的，未必是最好的骑手，那些拥有最好赛马的骑手，更容易笑到最后。什么是赛马呢？以人生的不同阶段为例，求学时期，学校就是你的赛马，重点中学胜率大于普通中学，清北复交胜过一般本科；工作阶段，行业和公司就是你的赛马，IT互联网的胜率大于建筑设计，BAT相比小公司更容易让你成才。推而广之，...

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天涯_5825
·2020-07-15
别整的那么复杂，只要低买高卖就赚钱，坚决不追高韭菜变镰刀！现在就买中石油，历史最低价，放个三五年再看！
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熹熹姐
·2020-07-15
买个保险理财也是复利
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-07-15
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小虎变大虎
·2020-07-15
6
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上帝不是王小丫
·2020-07-15
牛市熊市中，唯一稳准不赔的就是你们这帮割韭菜的帮凶。全片都是凯上帝视角的废话，你买股票时间能知道现在是牛市还是熊市？我问你现在算不算？狗屁
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张江表哥
·2020-07-15
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-07-15
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贝哥_6707
·2020-07-15
又想骗我去当韭菜。
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model3周产过万了吗
·2020-07-15
如何才能买指数基金啦？有哪位大神能告诉我方法吗
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LittleLinda
·2020-07-15
说的挺有道理的指数基金定投适合懒人赚钱。
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吾知
·2020-07-15
总之，来了赌场，不买点，你好意思出去吗？
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Sunny001
·2020-07-15
有道理，关键问题是如何判断牛熊市。熊市加仓，牛市减仓
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- 不靠谱的包子:
  [强] [强] [强]价格和价值的相符性，在美股的判断中更具有逻辑推理的价值
  2020-07-15
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- fy123:
  仔细看，关键在于价格
  2020-07-15
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bleey
·2020-07-15
或者这本来就只一个大反弹，那现在建仓除了定投其他也得站岗了
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bleey
·2020-07-15
如果现在是牛市下半场，那建仓的又要站在山顶上了😂
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麦香鸡
·2020-07-15
这说的很中肯了，不过对于所谓专业人士的能力和其作为委托人因激励机制所带来的道德因素表示怀疑。
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獨夢
·2020-07-15
专业的事交给专业人去做，有道理
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风筝叔叔
·2020-07-15
有没大神推荐本书看看，我就是跟风的那群小白，迫切需要补充知识
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-07-15
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郝医生
·2020-07-14
如何游最快的一百米，最快的办法是顺着潮水，最慢的办法是自己游。这是老虎送的日历里面写的一句话。借牛市之力，挣钱走起。
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核动力印钞机
·2020-07-14
[微笑]
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真的英雄
·2020-07-14
不买股票，存定期，跑赢绝大多数散户
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教子教孙别玩A股
·2020-07-14
上证指数每年百分之十的收益。。。。。。为何十几年还是3000。。。。。
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- 郝医生:
  十年前的3000点是高估，现在的3000点是低估。
  2020-07-14
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- 冷读术:
  从100点开始算不懂吗，平均年化，长期投资
  2020-07-14
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- 颜承悦:
  癌股是特例
  2020-07-14
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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2650994633&idx=1&sn=5402dd2aa94798304b28833d05fc3c60&chksm=80aceee8b7db67fef3dfe5144571e6da1fb84c47b5a270bf62a85e3af19d92ea80ab8070acb5&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0714Gp52ktc01XPzuRdCWMwX&sharer_sharetime=1594736233196&sharer_shareid=715eb1d78c44c5260fabf65e8728db40&key=b5fefcfa89041be7c4333bced61100d98723009bcb3dcfb84ce3d26c00ddc284b04deb2703625cdb1e2eb001463cea21c40e2c856b7e50610d6487e9364dc7e992458504d4982c07ea93cd3d7afb336d&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=AVKYGRHpBzNF1S5zMJzBuGs%3D&pass_ticket=2kye8RshFSlqZXJRWvqPZeBrDaCZizfierIIsq1WdSjdtrpQXYsK6ZOUlpYnXcig><strong>苏宁金融研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者｜苏宁金融研究院副院长 薛洪言让基金经理为你赶车艾·里斯在《人生定位》中提出了赛马理论：如果人生是一场赛马，赢得比赛的，未必是最好的骑手，那些拥有最好赛马的骑手，更容易笑到最后。什么是赛马呢？以人生的不同阶段为例，求学时期，学校就是你的赛马，重点中学胜率大于普通中学，清北复交胜过一般本科；工作阶段，行业和公司就是你的赛马，IT互联网的胜率大于建筑设计，BAT相比小公司更容易让你成才。推而广之，...</p>\n\n<a 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money?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d520f1e32c232a8a49f72592b0e5713","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"HSI":0.9},"content_text":"作者｜苏宁金融研究院副院长 薛洪言让基金经理为你赶车艾·里斯在《人生定位》中提出了赛马理论：如果人生是一场赛马，赢得比赛的，未必是最好的骑手，那些拥有最好赛马的骑手，更容易笑到最后。什么是赛马呢？以人生的不同阶段为例，求学时期，学校就是你的赛马，重点中学胜率大于普通中学，清北复交胜过一般本科；工作阶段，行业和公司就是你的赛马，IT互联网的胜率大于建筑设计，BAT相比小公司更容易让你成才。推而广之，相同的毕业学校，专业就是你的赛马，金融这匹马更容易让你赚到钱；在同一家公司，岗位就是你的赛马，营销岗位更容易让你赚到钱。所以，在人生这条路上，每个人都骑着很多匹马。很多时候，个人的聪明才智所发挥的作用，远远比不上他骑着一匹怎样的马。不管你多么聪慧敏锐，把注压在一个输家身上是永远得不到回报的。泰坦尼克上最优秀的官员到最后也要与最没用的人待在同一条救生艇里，前提还是他要足够幸运，没有掉进水里。在股市里炒股，也是同样的道理。很多散户所凭借的，不过是自身的经验、知识和小道消息，他们总是单打独斗，所以绝大多数都做了分母。自始至终，他们骑着的是他们自己，他们以自己为马。在股市这个赛道中，散户自己显然不是跑得最快的马，他们没有受过专业训练，缺乏专业的后勤补给，情绪波动大，缺乏纪律约束，甚至也没有专业的装备。他们和机构同台竞技，通常是被碾压的一方，被割了韭菜，正如股市中那句俗语：当有钱人遇到有经验的人，有经验的人最终会变得有钱，而有钱人最终会得到经验。眼馋牛市的收益，何必亲自下场呢？把钱交给有经验的人替你管理，不要以自己为马，挑一匹跑得更快的马，才是更好的选择。基金，就是这样一匹马。买一只基金，基金经理会为你赶车，你在车上只要呼呼睡觉就好了。买什么最好？截止2020年一季度末，国内基金总数超过6800只，其中股票型基金1188只。面对1188只由专业人士打理的基金，普通投资者该如何挑选呢？对小白投资者而言，最佳选择就是指数基金。这个结论不是我下的，巴菲特、达利欧、约翰•博格等全球知名投资人都表达过类似的观点。如巴菲特就曾留下遗嘱，他去世之后，托管给妻子的资金必须投资于指数基金。巴菲特解释道：我相信根据现行政策，该信托基金的长期业绩将优于大多数投资者的业绩——无论他们投资的是养老基金、机构基金还是个人基金，因为它们雇用的都是费用昂贵的基金经理。巴菲特所谓「昂贵的基金经理」，是指相比低费率的指数型基金，非指数型股票基金的管理费用太高，在时间的复利效应下会极大地侵蚀利润。况且，有研究表明，长期来看，95%以上的主动管理型基金都跑不赢指数基金。巴菲特老爷子还用真金白银表达过自己对指数基金的支持。2008年，巴菲特同某对冲基金公司打赌，赌该公司旗下5只最顶尖的对冲基金在10年内跑不赢标准普尔500指数，赌注100万美元。最后，巴菲特赢了赌注。长期来看，指数基金之所以表现更好，除了较低的费率外，更重要的是指数基金属于被动管理，买入并持有构成指数的成分股，与「市场先生」保持一致。而非指数基金强调跑赢市场、跑赢指数，需要基金经理主动操作。但问题恰恰在于，基金经理也是普通人，他们也会受情绪控制，犯各种散户会犯的错误。从结果上看，他们也许比散户更专业，但通常打不赢「市场先生」。与时间做朋友很多老股民，都不愿意买指数，觉得不刺激。市场中每天都有涨停的股票，少则几十只，多则几百只；而指数（如上证指数）涨个2%就算不错了，赚钱效应弱爆了。但从结果上看，绝大多数股民，牛市中盈利跑不赢指数，熊市里亏损远远高于指数。指数盈利的奥秘，藏在时间的长河中，藏在复利效应里。10万元本金，哪怕每年涨幅只有10%，只要拿的住，30年之后就能增值17.5倍，变成175万元。你可能会说，到哪里去找年均收益10%的投资呢？上证指数就是。都说A股牛短熊长，但上证指数从上市100点到现在3345点（2020年7月7日），30年涨了33.45倍，年均涨幅12.4%。所以，看似不起眼的指数，在时间的长河里，跑赢了通胀，跑赢了存款，跑赢了银行理财。话虽如此，买入时点也很重要。如果是2015年6月12日在5166点买入，现在还深套其中。对于普通投资者，很难去选择买入时点，可行的办法就是分散买入时点，即基金定投。只需要每周或每月投入一定金额的资金，就能把买入时点的影响抹平，在时间的长河中尽情享受复利效应。嘉信理财金融研究中心曾做过一个研究，假定5位投资者每年拿出2000美元购买指数，其中，有位投资者每年都选择了最佳买入点（最低点买入），有位投资者每次都是最糟糕买入点（最高点买入），20年之后，二者的盈利差距不到1.5万美元。见下图。资料来源：[美] 托尼·罗宾斯 、[美]彼得·莫劳克，《不可撼动的财务自由》，中信出版社，2020.就普通投资者而言，不必追求最佳买点，也不可能总是最差买点，只要定期买入、长期持有，做时间的朋友就够了。关键是仓位这几天，股市大涨，很多发誓不再炒股的股民陆续回来了。我有一个朋友，周一（7月6日）跑步入市，买入指数基金。周一股市涨得好，他很沮丧，因为拉高了他的成本；周二（7月7日）股市也还行，但他认为太疲软了，似乎指数不涨5个点，对不住他的热情支持。我评论说疲软正好加仓，他又不敢，说等周一这笔赚到钱再说。这是很多股民的典型思维模式：着眼于一日两日的涨跌，不能站在牛熊大势的层面布局，捡了芝麻，丢了西瓜。牛市初期，观望大概是所有错误中代价最大的一个。很多投资者，在牛市初期不敢投资，看到身边人赚了钱才慢慢买入，越是谨慎的投资者越是如此。结果就是，他们总是在牛市的后半段大举加仓，把成本做得很高，然后在牛市接近尾声时走向另一个极端，变得无比激进，不惜贷款炒股，甚至卖房炒股。结果，整个牛市里，轻仓介入，只赚到零花钱，却满仓迎接熊市，被熊市的第一个跌停焖在里面，跌幅20%时被套住了，跌幅30%时，割肉离场，然后发誓这辈子再也不碰股票。等下一个牛市来临时，他们忍不住又来了，但谨慎依旧，还是在牛市的后半程进来，重复过去的故事，再次割肉离场，屡战屡败、屡败屡战。正确的做法是反其道行之。最好在熊市中坚持定投。如果三年前定投指数，现在的账面盈利至少在30%-40%了。如果不是，应该在牛市初期快速建仓，把仓位抬高。之后，守住仓位，不因短期的调整离场；待牛市进入后半场，再逐步降低仓位。重仓参与牛市，轻仓迎接熊市，如此周而复始，自然对股市由恨生爱。当然，没有人能够预判股市走势，也没人说得清何为前半场，何为后半程，何为牛熊转换的临界点。但只要保持定力，低点介入、高点离场，大方向上的仓位布局，还是可以做到的。长期资金、长期投资股市变幻莫测，以至于很多人把股市比作「赌场」。短期来看，的确与赌场无疑，因为谁也无法预知第二天的涨跌，买入卖出都像在下注。但长期来看，股市却是能赚钱的，赚的是经济持续增长的钱，赚的是货币超发下资产升值的钱。2008年10月，金融危机后市场最恐慌的时候，巴菲特在《纽约时报》发表一篇文章，题目为《买入美国，正当时》，里面有一段话，讲的就是长期投资的价值：从长期来看，股市给投资者带来的一定是好消息。20 世纪，美国经历了两次世界大战，还在许多其他军事冲突中付出了沉重的代价。美国经历了大萧条，还经历了其他十几次小小的经济衰退和金融危机。美国经历过石油危机、经历过流感疫情、经历过总统因丑闻而辞职。然而，道指还是从 66 点上涨到 11,497 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