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Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold

Seeking Alpha2021-12-14

Summary Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets. Microsoft enjoys incredibly...

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Sew
·2021-12-14
Lovely
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TSY123
·2021-12-14
Excellent
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- BerryNat:
  [Happy]
  2021-12-15
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HermioneG
·2021-12-14
Awesome!
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Muppy
·2021-12-14
I love microsoft
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- Dogecake:
  Ok
  2021-12-15
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TeslaLegend
·2021-12-14
Please like and comment. Thanks!
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- JeremyKok:
  hi. please help like and comment back. thank you.
  2021-12-14
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- Muppy:
  thanks
  2021-12-14
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lrjk1985
·2021-12-14
I’ve never doubted MSFT
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- TeslaLegend:
  Nice
  2021-12-14
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xvin23
·2021-12-14
Pls like comment
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- JeremyKok:
  hi. please help like and comment back. thank you.
  2021-12-14
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- TeslaLegend:
  Nice
  2021-12-14
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GANCL
·2021-12-14
For long term investment
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FIRE Trader
·2021-12-14
Like
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AllFathers
·2021-12-14
Pls like...
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- JeremyKok:
  hi. please help like and comment back. thank you.
  2021-12-14
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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"MSFT","symbol_name":"微软","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","article_id":"1101780765","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"translate_title":"为什么微软股票是最终的买入和持有","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":607349686,"gmtCreate":1639493227965,"gmtModify":1639493228313,"author":{"id":"3584610636880639","authorId":"3584610636880639","name":"Sew","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c8b2d3d13fc62e657695ed1e8b5e8a","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Lovely","listText":"Lovely","text":"Lovely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607349686","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607312995,"gmtCreate":1639488821220,"gmtModify":1639488821449,"author":{"id":"3583665662213187","authorId":"3583665662213187","name":"TSY123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af38fbc4f07efb7ae9b5ebd03aa4b79b","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Excellent&nbsp;","listText":"Excellent&nbsp;","text":"Excellent","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607312995","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6989069,"gmtCreate":1639547852992,"gmtModify":1639547853094,"authorId":4087986020499840,"author":{"id":4087986020499840,"authorId":4087986020499840,"name":"BerryNat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27333e490249edd9b1054f0311c8584c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607312995,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[Happy]","text":"[Happy]","html":"[Happy]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607935873,"gmtCreate":1639471844938,"gmtModify":1639471845921,"author":{"id":"3581581151725380","authorId":"3581581151725380","name":"HermioneG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/449ae31dcb8cfcd4dcedab9bc5dec8aa","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Awesome!","listText":"Awesome!","text":"Awesome!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607935873","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607936132,"gmtCreate":1639471469465,"gmtModify":1639473017737,"author":{"id":"3578278614559162","authorId":"3578278614559162","name":"Muppy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd92f5e7a1327b1a0a9b7333dafa96","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I love microsoft","listText":"I love microsoft","text":"I love microsoft","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607936132","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6984564,"gmtCreate":1639527304597,"gmtModify":1639527304693,"authorId":3581557180344145,"author":{"id":3581557180344145,"authorId":3581557180344145,"name":"Dogecake","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d76d36c16d4030fabec7511a03e9c987","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607936132,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":" Ok","text":" Ok","html":" Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607996353,"gmtCreate":1639469212820,"gmtModify":1639469213401,"author":{"id":"3572489627147183","authorId":"3572489627147183","name":"TeslaLegend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180ad6f06095bcbf2b6594d26c494752","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks!","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks!","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607996353","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6977324,"gmtCreate":1639474762898,"gmtModify":1639474763024,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607996353,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please help like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please help like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please help like and comment back. thank you."},{"id":6976925,"gmtCreate":1639471461005,"gmtModify":1639471461102,"authorId":3578278614559162,"author":{"id":3578278614559162,"authorId":3578278614559162,"name":"Muppy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bd92f5e7a1327b1a0a9b7333dafa96","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607996353,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"thanks","text":"thanks","html":"thanks"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607998533,"gmtCreate":1639469189321,"gmtModify":1639469189440,"author":{"id":"3582784322184490","authorId":"3582784322184490","name":"lrjk1985","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fefb89309f2792d9fd2433431d3e68c2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"I’ve never doubted MSFT","listText":"I’ve never doubted MSFT","text":"I’ve never doubted MSFT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607998533","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6976695,"gmtCreate":1639469236550,"gmtModify":1639469236583,"authorId":3572489627147183,"author":{"id":3572489627147183,"authorId":3572489627147183,"name":"TeslaLegend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180ad6f06095bcbf2b6594d26c494752","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607998533,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607991807,"gmtCreate":1639469030711,"gmtModify":1639469031128,"author":{"id":"3577242908888293","authorId":"3577242908888293","name":"xvin23","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/284ea65037fdd70740d1782f2b4e7dc7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Pls like comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607991807","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6977326,"gmtCreate":1639474771454,"gmtModify":1639474771547,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607991807,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please help like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please help like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please help like and comment back. thank you."},{"id":6976692,"gmtCreate":1639469220237,"gmtModify":1639469220275,"authorId":3572489627147183,"author":{"id":3572489627147183,"authorId":3572489627147183,"name":"TeslaLegend","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180ad6f06095bcbf2b6594d26c494752","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607991807,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice","text":"Nice","html":"Nice"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607999840,"gmtCreate":1639468712327,"gmtModify":1639468723361,"author":{"id":"3566524239552357","authorId":"3566524239552357","name":"GANCL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02bdb0309baf16b47e74509dc75824e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"For long term investment&nbsp;","listText":"For long term investment&nbsp;","text":"For long term investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607999840","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607905585,"gmtCreate":1639468024548,"gmtModify":1639468024876,"author":{"id":"3578877444948553","authorId":"3578877444948553","name":"FIRE Trader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c30b3322520635b1f24c04407d5574c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607905585","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":607902339,"gmtCreate":1639467848136,"gmtModify":1639467848313,"author":{"id":"4089502927615680","authorId":"4089502927615680","name":"AllFathers","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/919bc5fbaa10bcac5c605f3188081ff1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Pls like...","listText":"Pls like...","text":"Pls like...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607902339","repostId":1101780765,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101780765","pubTimestamp":1639467407,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101780765?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 15:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101780765","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit inc","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Microsoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.</li>\n <li>Microsoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.</li>\n <li>Microsoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard &amp; Poor’s.</li>\n <li>Microsoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world&nbsp;by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating&nbsp;74.27%&nbsp;of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within&nbsp;Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only&nbsp;86 million active users&nbsp;behind&nbsp;Twitter's 396 million active users&nbsp;even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of&nbsp;the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division&nbsp;has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market&nbsp;is expected&nbsp;to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6%&nbsp;of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps&nbsp;the recent AWS outage&nbsp;could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing&nbsp;is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division&nbsp;by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by&nbsp;the rather successful launch&nbsp;of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates&nbsp;the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that&nbsp;71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a&nbsp;3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates&nbsp;the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates&nbsp;the search engine field&nbsp;even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as&nbsp;FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b11977a676b14d557dd3f28130d8cc6a\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's&nbsp;$3.716 billion&nbsp;versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in&nbsp;sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af52c96587103f7ac9b6cb9f8f820c2a\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3a59c6bf53d0d99d7abbe13e66c009\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"289\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds&nbsp;a AAA rating from Standard &amp; Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec9d1087f0b8b7f2aa308ae9b718dba\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"295\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board&nbsp;has approved&nbsp;a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle&nbsp;a suit&nbsp;with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being&nbsp;largely inconsequential.\nYet, after&nbsp;Google,Facebook, and&nbsp;Amazon&nbsp;all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple&nbsp;lost some control over the App Store&nbsp;over monopolistic practices and&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said&nbsp;\"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said&nbsp;of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of&nbsp;disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft&nbsp;a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab8a591c6c50358e5dc010e6bfdad74\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry&nbsp;is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio&nbsp;of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used&nbsp;this list&nbsp;of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has&nbsp;a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at&nbsp;a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata&nbsp; P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&amp;P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738ac5e9cda36a37c60861ae77d8ede4\" tg-width=\"696\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored&nbsp;that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from&nbsp;18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus&nbsp;long term growth rate of 16.1%&nbsp;among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software &amp; programming industry has an average&nbsp;P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above&nbsp;Microsoft's P/E ratio&nbsp;of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of&nbsp;the top firms&nbsp;in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2599f36cbc08b34eb02261dfb9367a5c\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"392\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&amp;P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Microsoft Stock Is The Ultimate Buy And Hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-14 15:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474761-why-microsoft-stock-ultimate-buy-hold","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101780765","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft offers various products over three different divisions, many of which exhibit incredibly strong moats and subsequently dominate their respective markets.\nMicrosoft enjoys incredibly strong operating efficiencies and is able to monetize its products at a level far above its peers.\nMicrosoft has an incredibly strong capital position, with top bond ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.\nMicrosoft maintains low risk, outperformed during the recent COVID crash, and has consequently outperformed the broader market by a wide margin over the last two years.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIn an era where tech stocks have dominated the public markets, Microsoft's (MSFT) success has been nothing short of extraordinary. The two and a half trillion dollar company falls second only to Apple (AAPL) in outright value. Yet, for as long as there are successful companies, there will be doubters warning of certain demise. The constant cries, \"It's here! Get out while you can!\" ring out until, eventually, the nihilistic army is right. The tech giants are often a focus of much of the skeptics' ire, as it can be pretty hard to justify that a company, such as Microsoft, can truly be worth more than 96.4% of countries in the world by GDP. This article will offer a logical breakdown of how Microsoft has earned its valuation and why there may even still be some room to go.\nCorporate Summary\nMicrosoft, founded in 1975, was created to provide operating solutions for some of the world's first commercial microcomputers and, specifically, for the Altair 8800. Currently, Microsoft has its software operating 74.27% of all laptops and desktop computers in the world. Unquestionably, this is far beyond any ambitions that Bill Gates and Paul Allen held when the company was first created. A portmanteau of microcomputer software, Microsoft is still heavily grounded in its roots in software engineering, though it's now grown to become so much more.\nMicrosoft breaks its operations down into three segments, Productivity and Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. All three of these segments rely on Microsoft's industry-leading software, though all three also contain far more. Within Productivity and Business Processes, Microsoft operates its Office 365 suite of products, which include Word, PowerPoint, Excel, etc., and is geared towards both commercial and consumer markets. Microsoft also includes LinkedIn, the popular networking social media site, and Dynamics 365, a customer relationship management (\"CRM\") service, in this division.\nThis sector contains the products with perhaps the widest competitive moats of any in the company's arsenal. Sure, LinkedIn doesn't exactly have as many users as Facebook (FB) or Twitter (TWTR), but it exists in a completely different space. There's no other online platform in which people can congregate in a professional setting. The niche in which LinkedIn occupies allows it to be the default service for its specific application, and is still only 86 million active users behind Twitter's 396 million active users even though the latter's platform is far more open-ended.\nOffice 365 offers some of the most iconic computer programs in the world. Especially in the business field, the Office 365 suite isthestandard for spreadsheets, presentations, and word documents. Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)Cloud, formerly the G Suite, has made significant headroom in recent years but, when it comes to paid users,Office still dominates. While Google had about six million paying users last year, Microsoft had about 258 million. Dynamics 365 is the clear outlier here, as it's not exactly at the top of its field. No, that title belongs to Salesforce (CRM), which controls 19.5% of the CRM market. Dynamics 365 has a far more modest 4%, just .8% behind second-place SAP (SAP).\nMicrosoft's Intelligent Cloud division has been its fastest-growing sector over the last few years, led by its cloud computing service, Azure. Azure's revenue grew by 50% over last year, and is grouped into the subcategory of 'server products and cloud services.' Server product revenue grew by just 6%, while enterprise services revenue grew by 8% since last year. Thus, the Intelligent Cloud division's 24% growth in revenue is driven almost entirely from Azure, which looks poised to continue its rapid expansion.\nMost of this growth comes naturally, as the cloud computing market experiences some fairly intense growth. Currently valued at $445.3 billion, the market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% through 2026, reaching a value of $947.3 billion by 2026. Though Amazon Web Services (\"AWS\") (AMZN) continues to lead the sector, Azure is starting to draw nearer. In 2019,AWS held 44.6% of the cloud computing market. As of the first quarter of this year,it held 32%. This is still 12% ahead of second-place Azure, which itself is 11% ahead of the next closest competitor. The cloud computing market seems to be mostly a two-horse race, with Microsoft fighting to claw back Amazon's early lead. Perhaps the recent AWS outage could help Microsoft gain further momentum in this fight.\nMore Personal Computing is the division where the vast majority of Microsoft's direct relationship with consumers is built. Of course, the products themselves are important in the sense that they generate sales for the company, but this is also where Microsoft grows its brand. Azure is an incredibly important component of Microsoft's future, but when people boot up their computer to watch Netflix (NFLX), they're not exactly thinking about AWS.\nWithin this division, Microsoft breaks down its operations into four subcategories. Windows is the descendant of that first system developed for the Altair 8800 and is the largest component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division by sales. As far as the public's perception of Microsoft is concerned, the Windows operating system (\"OS\") is perhaps the most important component of Microsoft's business. Gaming is another strong component of Microsoft's Personal Computing division. Strong growth for the sector was driven by the rather successful launch of new gaming hardware in the Xbox Series X|S. The other two categories within this sector are search advertising, primarily from search engine Bing and web browser Microsoft Edge, and Surface devices.\nWindows OS dominates the global computing market, as the operating system for 87.56% of laptops and desktops in the world. Apple's (AAPL) Mac OS comes up second, with 9.54% of the global market share. When it comes to moats and absolute market domination, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better example than Windows. Gaming is a bit of a different story.\nSony's (SONY) PlayStation 5 (\"PS5\") is the direct competitor to Microsoft's Xbox. While the Nintendo (OTCPK:NTDOY) Switch is another popular gaming console, it doesn't really compete against Xbox or PlayStation. The Switch offers a unique experience, exemplified by the fact that 71% of Switch owners also own another console. Despite the launch of new generation Xbox consoles being the \"most successful in [Microsoft's] history,\"PS5 sales have yet again toppled Xbox sales, outselling Microsoft by 67.5%. Though, even as the runner up, as a leader in a rapidly growing gaming industry, there's plenty for Microsoft to look forward to.\nThe Surface lineup is still fairly young, though it seems to have settled into a 3% market share. While the company continues to try to improve the lineup with more diverse offerings and improved hardware, the Surface lineup likely won't become a major component of Microsoft's business in the near future. Bing and Microsoft Edge are clear losers to Google Chrome and Google. Unlike the gaming industry, there isn't really much to be had as one of the leaders. Google Chrome dominates the web browser field, with 65.27% of all internet traffic. Microsoft Edge has just 3.4%, in third place behind Safari's 18.34%. Google dominates the search engine field even more, with 92.6% of all traffic. Bing is second, with just 2.3%. Really, Microsoft is just left picking up the scraps of Google and these two services aren't really some of Microsoft's finest.\nFinancials Analysis\nIt is important to note Microsoft's financial reporting schedule here. Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30th, meaning that the discussion of 'past year' financials will refer to the period starting July 1st, 2020 to June 30th, 2021, otherwise known as FY2021, unless specifically noted. Examining the company's segment information provides the most intimate understanding of Microsoft's operations. This breakdown demonstrates that server products and cloud services is Microsoft's largest subsector, by revenue, followed by Office products and Windows.\nSource: Microsoft\nLinkedIn is another valuable component to the Microsoft story. Because of its professional focus, it is far more monetizable than most social media platforms. Let's go back to the earlier comparison with Twitter to highlight this. Despite having 22% less active users than Twitter, LinkedIn generates 177% more revenue (Twitter's $3.716 billion versus LinkedIn's $10.289 billion). Another way to view this, is that Twitter makes about $9.38 per user while LinkedIn makes $33.19 per user. This is a staggering difference, though I suppose it's fitting that the social media site centered around business is the best at conducting it.\nLinkedIn isn't the only operation where Microsoft seems to have mastered the art of monetization. Microsoft's Office suite brought in about $39.872 billion over FY2021. While Microsoft doesn't disclose the product's operating margin, Productivity and Business Processes operates at a 45.17% margin and Office represents 73.95% of the division's sales, so it's safe to assume that it's around there. Google's G suite brought in $13.059 billion in sales during FY2020, though operated at an overall loss of $5.607 billion.\nMicrosoft's recent growth has been rather impressive. The company took revenue from $143.051 billion in 2020 up to $168.088 billion in 2021, or +17.5%, while the cost of revenue only increased 13.36% in the same period. Net Income rose from $44.281 billion in 2019 to $61.271 billion in 2020, or 38.37%, far outpacing the rate of growth of revenues. This healthy growth, seeing revenue outpace expenses, means that Microsoft is not only increasing its sales but also its operating efficiency. The graph below demonstrates Microsoft's strong operating margin growth, especially since 2015, and operating margin now the highest it's been in those ten years.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nMicrosoft has also experienced a period of fairly strong liquidity, as seen by the figure below. Inventories are fairly low for the company, representing only $2.636 billion of Microsoft's $1084.406 billion in current assets, as its Surface laptops and Xbox gaming consoles are really the only physical products that Microsoft sells. This helps keep the company's quick ratio high, which hasn't dipped below 1.9 in the past ten years. Thus, despite holding $191.791 billion in total liabilities, Microsoft is highly capable of fulfilling any debt obligations.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nSpeaking of its ability to fulfill its debt obligations,Microsoft currently holds a AAA rating from Standard & Poor's and an Aaa rating from Moody's. Both of these are the top of the respective firms' grading scale and reflect the company's incredible debt management. Beginning with Microsoft's ability to make good on its interest payments, the company's current interest coverage ratio of 29.8 is the highest it's been since 2014. With the company's operations able to generate enough money to cover interest payments almost 30 times over, there is incredibly little risk of Microsoft defaulting on interest payments. What's really rather astounding, is the company's market debt ratio. Debt makes up just 4% of the company's total market value, meaning Microsoft could easily cover all liabilities by raising new equity without significant dilution to shareholders. Though, as the company's financial health continues to simply improve, the only criticism here is that perhaps Microsoft could take on some more leverage to increase its return to shareholders. Though, it's not as if the company is really in a position where it needs to raise capital.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nLooking towards Microsoft's retained earnings, the company bought back $21.879 billion worth of shares last year. The company also paid out $16.871 billion in its quarterly dividend of $.56 per share. Even still, Microsoft saw its retained earnings increase from $34.566 billion in FY2020 to $57.055 billion this past year on account of its $61.271 billion in net income. In response, the Board has approved a $60 billion share buyback program and increased its quarterly dividend payout by 11%. While debt might be able to increase shareholder rewards even more, it isn't something that is necessarily advisable.\nIn Microsoft's cash flows, investing activities contributed to a $27.577 billion loss, a $125.62% increase over last year. This primarily came from larger investments in property and equipment, as well as the acquisition of companies, net of cash acquired, and purchase of intangible assets. This use of capital is good to see, as Microsoft has plenty of it to spend and, while buybacks and dividends are nice, growing the business is always the top priority.\nThesis Risks\nWhen examining the greatest macro threats to Microsoft's operations, antitrust suits are always a potential danger. Back in 2001, Microsoft had to settle a suit with the Department of Justice (\"DOJ\") after it was sued for allegedly violating the Sherman Antitrust Act with its acquisition and integration of Internet Explorer into Windows. While the initial verdict would have seen Microsoft split its business into two separate units, Windows and other software components, the settlement ended up being largely inconsequential.\nYet, after Google,Facebook, and Amazon all faced new antitrust cases in 2021, and Apple lost some control over the App Store over monopolistic practices and reportedly has an antitrust suit from the DOJ looming, Microsoft remains untouched. The reason for this may be rather simple. While the company didn't exactly go through a period of extreme reformation after its high-profile antitrust case some 20 years ago, it hasn't gotten any more abusive. Perhaps they even learned from it, as Brad Smith, President of Microsoft,said \"When I look back at it from Microsoft's perspective, it did mean many things, but I also think when I try to prioritize it in my own mind, it meant one thing more than any other: It was a part of the maturing of Microsoft.\" Perhaps this maturity has allowed Microsoft to play nice from then on, succeeding and succeeding fairly.\nSize alone is not cause for an antitrust suit, as people aren't exactly clamoring to bring down Walmart (WMT). For antitrust suits to be launched, competitors must be disgruntled. Microsoft hasn't really had any,except Slack, which means that there isn't really anything to launch an antitrust case on. The case with Slack is reminiscent of the 2001 case, as they argue against the integration of Microsoft Teams in Windows OS as an unfair advantage.\nRegardless, it doesn't seem that Microsoft carries the same ire as its tech peers. John Lopatka, an antitrust expert and professor at Penn State,said of the matter \"Microsoft simply may be maintaining its market share by being a good competitor.\" Herbert Hovenkamp, a professor at the University of the Pennsylvania Law School and antitrust expert, added to this idea, saying \"You have got to identify some product where there is both dominance and an exclusionary practice and it's kind of hard to find one [with Microsoft]. That's, I think, the bottom line.\" With this in mind, I'm not sure that investors have too much to worry on the legal front.\nOther risks that Microsoft faces include increasing competitive threats and lackluster returns from new investments. One example of such a failure may be the Surface lineup. While it may be a bit harsh to call the product a failure, the device has been a source of disappointmentsince its release in 2013. Though the company can't grow without taking some risks and Azure represents a highly successful implementation of a newer sector.\nBeyond the greater macro threats to Microsoft's valuation, it is also important to consider the general market riskiness of Microsoft's stock. With a beta of .98 for the past 52 weeks,according to FactSet, Microsoft trades incredibly closely to the broader market and does not exhibit abnormally high volatility. For risk-averse traders, this is a rather comforting sign. Even during the COVID pandemic, shares of Microsoft slipped by only around 25%, again demonstrating the ability for the company to mitigate periods of extreme volatility. Such outperformance during otherwise bleak periods is part of what makes Microsoft a favorite among hedge funds.\nMicrosoft's beta of .98 also makes the current cost of raising funds via equity 5.8%, again using data from FactSet. The cost of financing via debt is just 1.63%, though only 2.05% of Microsoft's capital is raised from debt. Keeping in mind the earlier discussion regarding the company's debt management, it does seem a bit strange that the company doesn't utilize debt a bit more given how strong its cash position is. Though, 5.8% still isn't terribly extreme.\nValuation Discussion\nWhen looking at how to value the company, with its hands in so many different pockets, examining a relative P/S ratio is a good place to start. Because Microsoft doesn't disclose the income of its various products, price to sales is the only way to provide an accurate comparison of Microsoft and its peers. To create a fair benchmark, Microsoft first must be broken down into its revenue by sector, or product. The figure below does exactly that.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Data From Microsoft\nGoing by category, the current P/S ratio of the computer processing and cloud services industry is currently 5.11. Office products and cloud services doesn't exactly have a distinct industry to be lumped into, as it dominates its own sector, so I combined it with Windows in the software and programming industry, which currently has a P/S ratio of 10.82. Gaming doesn't seem to have a publicly-available P/S ratio, so I used this list of the top 25 gaming companies by revenue to find it myself, discounting companies that don't conduct the vast majority of their business in gaming. I found the average P/S ratio to be 4.41.\nThe internet services and social media industry currently has a P/S ratio of 8.37, which I also included Search Advertising in for a similar reason to office products and cloud services - Google dominates the market. Professional services companies currently trade at a P/S of 4.99, which I ascribed to enterprise services. I categorized devices as consumer electronics, which currently trades ata  P/S of 5.29. For other, I simply used the P/S of the average S&P 500 company,which is 3.12. Microsoft's P/S ratio, for the trailing twelve months,is 14.3. Compared to the sector weighted average P/S ratio of 7.5, Microsoft appears to be a bit overvalued.\nSource: Author's Creation Using Above Information\nEven before calculating the weighted average P/S, it's pretty clear that Microsoft's is going to be higher. After all, not a single sector has a higher average P/S than Microsoft. Though, revenue doesn't really tell the full story of the company. P/S fails to take into account operating efficiencies, which is one of Microsoft's greatest strengths.\nThis idea of Microsoft's superior monetization strategies was discussed earlier, as was the company's steadily increasing operating margin. The company's strong performance on these two key metrics means that it is more effective with its sales than its peers, thus justifying a higher P/S ratio. As such, I look at this high P/S more as a testament to the company's incredible operating efficiencies, rather than the company, perhaps, being overvalued.\nAs Microsoft continues to extend its operating efficiencies, especially as lower-margin products like the Surface lineup represent a smaller portion of the company's overall sales due to growth in other areas, its lead over peers will only grow. Gaming is a prime example of this. In the new digital era, subscriptions have emerged as the superior form of monetization, hence Microsoft released the Xbox game pass in 2017. Currently,it is rumored that Microsoft now has between 25 million and 30 million game pass subscribers, up from 18 million as of January. Examples such as this demonstrate the firm's ability to continue to improve its efficiencies, even as it outperforms peers.\nThe other component to consider, when looking at price multiples, is that a high multiple also may simply indicate that the market is expecting high growth. With Microsoft, this is undoubtedly the case. With a consensus long term growth rate of 16.1% among the 38 analysts that cover Microsoft, the expectations have been set.\nFinally, while I do still believe it's a bit inappropriate to simply categorize Microsoft as a software company, it is still the most accurate single label for the tech giant. The software & programming industry has an average P/E ratio of 40.9, which is above Microsoft's P/E ratio of 37.2 for the trailing twelve months. Interestingly, most of the top firms in the sector have a higher P/E than overall the sector average. This seems to indicate that the market views the software industry as an area of significant growth and, given Microsoft's beta of .98, it makes sense that Microsoft is viewed similarly to the rest of the sector. Though, bringing back the discussion of efficiency, remember that the software and programming industry has a P/S ratio of 10.82, below Microsoft's P/S of 14.3. Yet, Microsoft has a lower P/E than the rest of the sector due to its significantly greater efficiency.\nFactoring in Microsoft's growth, the company also maintains a lower PEG than the rest of the sector.According to FactSet, the company has a PEG of 2.1. Compared to the average of 2.56 for its peers, it again seems that Microsoft may actually be a bit undervalued relative to its peers. PEG takes the P/E ratio and divides it by its expected earnings growth rate, allowing growth to be clearly included in this common valuation metric. Because Microsoft also has a lower PEG than its industry peers, it stands to reason that the company's lower P/E isn't simply a result of lower growth expectations.\nAs seen below, Microsoft's return on equity (\"ROE\") is above the vast majority of its peers, with Citrix (CTXS) included as an outlier. Because ROE is a measure of net income divided by shareholder's equity, it is effectively a measure of asset efficiency, or how much profit a company's assets are able to produce. The most important thing is that ROE surpasses the cost of raising capital which, even if done completely through equity, is more than accomplished. Microsoft's peers tend to outperform the general market in ROE, indicating a greater sector efficiency overall, though Microsoft clearly takes this efficiency beyond what is typical even for this highly-efficient sector, backing up the above theorizing regarding discrepancies between P/S and P/E. So, with a higher efficiency than the vast majority of its peers by a significant margin and an incredibly healthy capital system, there the only logical conclusion to draw from the company's relatively low P/E and PEG seems to be that it is undervalued.\nSource: Author's Calculations Using Data from Bloomberg Terminal\nInvestor Takeaway\nIt feels a bit strange to say that a company valued as highly as Microsoft is still undervalued, yet that seems to be the reality. Just a few years ago, the idea of a multi-trillion dollar company seemed even a bit fanciful. Yet, here lies Microsoft. A testament to the power of efficiency and responsible growth, Microsoft has earned this value by learning from past mistakes and consistently adapting to new market demands. Though, perhaps it's the company's tremendous size that makes some balk at purchasing the company, thus creating the mispricing. After all, the market will always be an emotional one.\nAs this disclosure below notes, I'm long Microsoft. As you might be able to tell from my name, I tend to like investments with a long horizon. Microsoft is, at the moment, the company in my portfolio that I plan to hold the longest. From a long-term perspective, I struggle to see another company that offers a superior investment profile. While the company's recent beta of .98 may suggest that it doesn't outperform the market, and turn away some prospective investors that are \"seeking alpha,\" keep in mind that this is a recovering market. Since January 31, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned ~45%. Over the same period, Microsoft has returned ~99%. This goes back to how well Microsoft performed during the COVID downturn relative to the rest of the market. While the rest of the market was recovering, Microsoft was just performing and, consequently, has dramatically outperformed over this longer horizon. So, the company's ability to generate consistently high returns and mitigate losses during economic hardship makes it the ultimate buy and hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6977329,"gmtCreate":1639474780360,"gmtModify":1639474780393,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607902339,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please help like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please help like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please help like and comment back. thank you."},{"id":6976543,"gmtCreate":1639468030831,"gmtModify":1639468030921,"authorId":3578877444948553,"author":{"id":3578877444948553,"authorId":3578877444948553,"name":"FIRE Trader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c30b3322520635b1f24c04407d5574c","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":607902339,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":68,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}