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偏爱新经济的价值投资
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且听风吟云起
2021-06-30
达里奥的6个股市系统性泡沫指标,将泡沫定义为不可持续的价格
达里奥最新演讲:股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中
且听风吟云起
2021-06-30
MMT科普
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且听风吟云起
2021-06-29
关注瓶颈效应,可关注零售商库销比,生产商库销比,批发商库销比的对比
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且听风吟云起
2021-06-28
可见机锋
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且听风吟云起
2021-06-10
冲浪和滑雪都是需要非常集中注意力的
高瓴资本张磊:人生经历四次转折,最佩服两个人
且听风吟云起
2021-05-28
$新氧(SY)$
医美行业
直播:“颜值经济”迎风口,千亿医美市场的投资机会
且听风吟云起
2021-03-10
About what would be really bad about innovation-based strategies
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且听风吟云起
2021-03-02
FCF现金流折现法
Is There An Opportunity With NEXT plc's (LON:NXT) 31% Undervaluation?
且听风吟云起
2021-02-23
高屋建瓴的见解,如火花闪过灵感
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且听风吟云起
2021-02-20
在牛市中,市场的反应功能(价格对新闻和事件的反应方式)完全不同。熊市不会考虑经济影响。约翰邓普顿说:“牛市生于极度悲观,成长于怀疑论,死于狂热。”由经济复苏带动的牛市通常不会很快结束。
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且听风吟云起
2021-02-19
宏观科技属性的成长不一定涨幅落后于价值
科技股近日回落 华尔街女股神仍看好特斯拉 称“更有信心”
且听风吟云起
2021-02-19
破坏式创新,关于创业的心法
特斯拉与五菱宏光:“破坏式创新”的叛将与门徒
且听风吟云起
2021-02-03
发现需求,解决方案,单元模型,Benchmark,迭代优化——创业最初的样子。这篇文章回答了(不一定好),Clubhouse 究竟满足了什么需求?与替代品相比如何?未来的商业模式可能是什么?竞争优势又是什么?
$Clubhouse Media Group Inc(CMGR)$
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且听风吟云起
2021-01-21
作为科普看看
@小虎老师:【前方高能】史上最全的期权学习视频,让你欲罢不能!
且听风吟云起
2020-12-29
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
对于业务护城河提供了一个侧面
@YOLO道:PLTR前途可期
且听风吟云起
2020-12-21
李录《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》
“中国版巴菲特”李录:谈危机、创新、个人与世界
且听风吟云起
2020-12-12
TwillioCPaaS领袖,API的鼻祖,大体量之下收入扩张速度不减,CAGR保持40%以上,DBNER保持130%+,值得关注。
Twilio or Bandwidth: Which Cloud Stock Is Poised For Better Growth?
且听风吟云起
2020-12-06
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
The Play On Axsome Therapeutics
且听风吟云起
2020-12-06
关于AXSM公司财务情况和主要pipeline研发情况。以及AXS-05的估值
抱歉,原内容已删除
且听风吟云起
2020-12-05
从S-1文件中的解析。初学者教科书一般的详细,值得品味。Palantir在商业很多领域的拓展刚刚开始,鉴于其技术深度领先地位和行业需求深度非“即插即用”可满足,有持续领跑的潜力,需求持续增长刚刚开始,未来收入增长率,利润率有进一步扩展可能。风险之一:无法产生规模经济。如果Gotham和Foundry向新客户的部署证明比预期的更耗费劳力,那么Palantir将开始作为一个IT咨询/系统集成商而不是一个软件公司而受到重视。即Scaling的风险,scaling决定了估值的定义和价值乘数
Bullish On Palantir As It Is Just Beginning To Monetize Its Platforms
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19:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"达里奥最新演讲:股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186578125","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文,介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标,并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中,达里奥表示,","content":"<p>全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文,介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标,并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。</p>\n<p>在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中,达里奥表示,虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”,但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed46d81d71867f2d1eb8b3b9ad012779\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>达里奥在推文中写道,“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价,我用六项指标来衡量它”,并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。</p>\n<p>事实上,早在5月中旬时,达里奥就曾在公众号分享了他对股市泡沫的研究,详述了这六种系统性“泡沫指标”,包括价格、看涨情绪、杠杆高低等:</p>\n<p>1. 相对传统的衡量标准,价格有多高?</p>\n<p>2. 价格是否反映了不可持续的状况?</p>\n<p>3. 有多少新买家(即之前不在市场里的人)进入了市场?</p>\n<p>4. 看涨情绪有多普遍?</p>\n<p>5. 交易是否依赖高杠杆的支撑?</p>\n<p>6. 买家是否过度进行远期交易(如建立库存、签订远期协议等)来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89447f632ae50e578dd9ebcd007795e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以下是这个名为《股市目前是否处于泡沫中?》的视频演讲全文:</p>\n<p>大家好,很高兴能代表所有被罗宾汉(基金会)帮助过的人来到这里。</p>\n<p>你们知道,知道罗宾汉,是因为我认识保罗·都铎·琼斯,当时罗宾汉是他眼里的一抹微光,他会在贝德福德-斯图文森特街区(Bed Stuy)和孩子们一起打篮球,我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员,以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困,并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒,所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切,并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力,我有多么高兴。</p>\n<p>我被要求谈论泡沫,市场、股市是否处于泡沫中,以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法,我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点,几年前,我开始思考:什么是泡沫?当我们身处泡沫中时,我所说的泡沫是指什么?因为在我50年的投资生涯中,我看到了很多泡沫。</p>\n<p>在我脑海中,有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的,我将他们一一列举出来。现在,看着它们,以便您知道我在说什么。</p>\n<p>首先,您知道,我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如,你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西,这是一个考虑因素,但这不是我所说的泡沫。</p>\n<p>比方说,可能出现价格高回报低的现象,而且这种情况可以持续很长时间,但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭,只是其中一个组成因素。</p>\n<p>第二,价格是反映不可持续的条件,这里指的是买方的性质,谁在买入和如何买入,不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌,然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。</p>\n<p>您知道,这就像鸡尾酒会,有些从不参加的人出现了,也就是投资了某些资产,可能是科技股,也可能是房地产,但无论如何,每个人都想,没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢,诸如此类。</p>\n<p>第五项是大额购买远期“合约”,比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓,因为他们认为公寓会上涨,或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人,他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说,购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。</p>\n<p>所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时,价格持续下跌,他们会说“我也不想要它”。</p>\n<p>而当价格上涨时,他们会说我们要进行溢价保护,对冲价格上涨。所以,延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个(泡沫)指标。</p>\n<p>我用这张表显示整个股市,我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上,并且使用一种系统化的方法,试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来,在各种各样的股票中,有些存在泡沫,有些则没有,而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。</p>\n<p>这张图表可以追溯到1910年,它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的,但没有2000年和1929年那么高,不过高于2007年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4f2ff86c22e19d1a051e96d120c0fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>让我们看看存在泡沫的股票,根据这些标准,很多股票没有泡沫。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebf9f9bfdd5c982106b5c4f97acf635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张图表追溯到1995年,与2000年相比,前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%,整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%,虽然不如2000年高,但比2007年高。</p>\n<p>现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15720e9f5f0240be2ddeda3d14230eaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离,可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降,我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去,但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是,泡沫可以扩张和收缩,时机是个大问题。</p>\n<p>下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年,上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比,下图中蓝线显示的是利率,红线显示印钞规模,也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时,就像现在的情况,并且实施近零利率,这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3d3c839ca42009c377a3eed7c9c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这是泡沫的一个关键因素,因为有大量的流动性进入市场,然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格,所以你可以看到,当蓝线触及零时,红线大幅上行。大量流动性,大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。</p>\n<p>其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市,特别是如果它们没有盈利,或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。</p>\n<p>这些也是泡沫的考虑因素,所以我想说,你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫,你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中;哪些股票没有,实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。</p>\n<p>所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>达里奥最新演讲:股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n达里奥最新演讲:股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 19:25 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w><strong>人民币交易与研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文,介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标,并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中,达里奥表示,虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”,但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。\n\n达里奥在推文中写道,“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价,我用六项指标来衡量它”,并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186578125","content_text":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文,介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标,并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中,达里奥表示,虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”,但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。\n\n达里奥在推文中写道,“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价,我用六项指标来衡量它”,并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。\n事实上,早在5月中旬时,达里奥就曾在公众号分享了他对股市泡沫的研究,详述了这六种系统性“泡沫指标”,包括价格、看涨情绪、杠杆高低等:\n1. 相对传统的衡量标准,价格有多高?\n2. 价格是否反映了不可持续的状况?\n3. 有多少新买家(即之前不在市场里的人)进入了市场?\n4. 看涨情绪有多普遍?\n5. 交易是否依赖高杠杆的支撑?\n6. 买家是否过度进行远期交易(如建立库存、签订远期协议等)来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响?\n\n以下是这个名为《股市目前是否处于泡沫中?》的视频演讲全文:\n大家好,很高兴能代表所有被罗宾汉(基金会)帮助过的人来到这里。\n你们知道,知道罗宾汉,是因为我认识保罗·都铎·琼斯,当时罗宾汉是他眼里的一抹微光,他会在贝德福德-斯图文森特街区(Bed Stuy)和孩子们一起打篮球,我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员,以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困,并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒,所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切,并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力,我有多么高兴。\n我被要求谈论泡沫,市场、股市是否处于泡沫中,以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法,我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点,几年前,我开始思考:什么是泡沫?当我们身处泡沫中时,我所说的泡沫是指什么?因为在我50年的投资生涯中,我看到了很多泡沫。\n在我脑海中,有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的,我将他们一一列举出来。现在,看着它们,以便您知道我在说什么。\n首先,您知道,我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如,你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西,这是一个考虑因素,但这不是我所说的泡沫。\n比方说,可能出现价格高回报低的现象,而且这种情况可以持续很长时间,但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭,只是其中一个组成因素。\n第二,价格是反映不可持续的条件,这里指的是买方的性质,谁在买入和如何买入,不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌,然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。\n您知道,这就像鸡尾酒会,有些从不参加的人出现了,也就是投资了某些资产,可能是科技股,也可能是房地产,但无论如何,每个人都想,没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢,诸如此类。\n第五项是大额购买远期“合约”,比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓,因为他们认为公寓会上涨,或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人,他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说,购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。\n所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时,价格持续下跌,他们会说“我也不想要它”。\n而当价格上涨时,他们会说我们要进行溢价保护,对冲价格上涨。所以,延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个(泡沫)指标。\n我用这张表显示整个股市,我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上,并且使用一种系统化的方法,试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来,在各种各样的股票中,有些存在泡沫,有些则没有,而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。\n这张图表可以追溯到1910年,它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的,但没有2000年和1929年那么高,不过高于2007年。\n\n让我们看看存在泡沫的股票,根据这些标准,很多股票没有泡沫。\n\n这张图表追溯到1995年,与2000年相比,前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%,整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%,虽然不如2000年高,但比2007年高。\n现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。\n\n我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离,可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降,我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去,但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是,泡沫可以扩张和收缩,时机是个大问题。\n下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年,上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比,下图中蓝线显示的是利率,红线显示印钞规模,也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时,就像现在的情况,并且实施近零利率,这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。\n\n这是泡沫的一个关键因素,因为有大量的流动性进入市场,然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格,所以你可以看到,当蓝线触及零时,红线大幅上行。大量流动性,大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。\n其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市,特别是如果它们没有盈利,或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。\n这些也是泡沫的考虑因素,所以我想说,你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫,你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中;哪些股票没有,实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。\n所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153106295,"gmtCreate":1625012189617,"gmtModify":1625012189617,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MMT科普","listText":"MMT科普","text":"MMT科普","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153106295","repostId":"1172774847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":150689107,"gmtCreate":1624896246409,"gmtModify":1624931491308,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"关注瓶颈效应,可关注零售商库销比,生产商库销比,批发商库销比的对比","listText":"关注瓶颈效应,可关注零售商库销比,生产商库销比,批发商库销比的对比","text":"关注瓶颈效应,可关注零售商库销比,生产商库销比,批发商库销比的对比","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150689107","repostId":"2145086880","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":150824012,"gmtCreate":1624893542636,"gmtModify":1624893542636,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可见机锋","listText":"可见机锋","text":"可见机锋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150824012","repostId":"1169261469","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183672937,"gmtCreate":1623331305329,"gmtModify":1623331305329,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲浪和滑雪都是需要非常集中注意力的","listText":"冲浪和滑雪都是需要非常集中注意力的","text":"冲浪和滑雪都是需要非常集中注意力的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183672937","repostId":"1155033069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155033069","pubTimestamp":1623306885,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155033069?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 14:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高瓴资本张磊:人生经历四次转折,最佩服两个人","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155033069","media":"投资人","summary":"01 人生四次转折\n成为投资人我经历了四个转折点。\n第一,小学考初中,差点没考上。因为我当时学习成绩比较差,小学考初中的最低录取分是140分,我考了141分,刚好多1分。我大概从高中二年级才开始努力;","content":"<p><b>01 人生四次转折</b></p>\n<p>成为投资人我经历了四个转折点。</p>\n<p>第一,小学考初中,差点没考上。因为我当时学习成绩比较差,小学考初中的最低录取分是140分,我考了141分,刚好多1分。我大概从高中二年级才开始努力;这是我第一次开始感觉要努力,印象特别深。</p>\n<p>第二,我觉得是在人民大学读书。现在我交的很多很好的朋友还都是当年在人大读书的时候认识的,他们当中,现在有的是朋友,有的是关系很深的合作伙伴,有的还一起从事一些公益性事业。</p>\n<p>第三,我在耶鲁大学捐赠基金工作。在找工作这个煎熬的过程使自己重新发现了自己,再加上第一份工作中跟什么样的人工作,我觉得这两件事对我影响比较大,其实刚进耶鲁基金实习工作是不得已而为之。找了好几个别的工作机会,都被拒绝了。</p>\n<p>第四,就是创业。在为公司打工还是创业两者之间,我选择创业。当时我的工作比较不错,而且和当时的纽约证券交易所CEO,John Thain, 关系很好,所以他委派我担任中国地区第一任NYSE的代表。这是非常好的发展机会,我完全可以继续做下去,但后来我还是决定创业,在2005年我创建了高瓴资本。</p>\n<p><b>02 做事就要做好</b></p>\n<p>现在我经常会反复考虑,我发现自己最大特点就是爱折腾,不满足现状,爱挑战自己。今天公司规模已经这么大了,但是我总在公司内部说二次创业,永远创业。这就像我喜欢具有冒险精神的运动一样,在事业方面我也是爱折腾。此外,我从来不满足于现状,可能有些人会觉得你有几百亿美元基金,收管理费就够了,不用那么折腾。但我不愿意这样,要做就要做到最好,要么就不做。</p>\n<p>我觉得自己思考问题还算比较彻底全面,喜欢把很多事情反复地去推敲和琢磨。我很喜欢提早计划,其实创业之前我很早就开始计划,先到基金工作,然后到别的机构,这些机构经常派我回中国,给了我一个时间过渡区来考虑和安排我的事情,每一步走得比较扎实。</p>\n<p>其实,选择和什么样的人一起做事情非常重要。我对这一点非常挑剔,我喜欢找基于长期信任的、熟悉的人一起工作。我身边的核心同事,要么是当年人大的同学,要么就是以前的同事。我的事业最早就是这么一小撮朋友一起做起来的。</p>\n<p><b>03 最佩服两个人</b></p>\n<p>我最佩服的人有两个,一个是巴菲特,一个是史文森。这两个人我都有机会比较近距离的接触,我最佩服巴菲特是他的投资能力,另外我也十分佩服他是一个具有强烈同理心的人,英文就是empathy。我很喜欢这种有同理心的人;同理心能使他更好地去了解年轻人,了解和他不一样的人,了解管理层。所以今天我经常和我的管理人员说需要有同理心,这点我从他身上学到的。</p>\n<p>巴菲特总是能站在别人的角度想问题。打个比方,假设从严格的角度来讲,有个管理层不是做到最优秀的,但他总能站在别人的角度,假设自己处在那个环境下,分析这个情况是由于这些或者那些原因造成的。他不是只站在自己的角度,只站在投资者的角度。我觉得站在别人的角度想很不容易,因为每个人都习惯从自己的角度思考问题。</p>\n<p>我觉得这个同理心对于投资,人生,甚至家庭、人际关系,都是一个非常好的品质。我也经常和小孩子交流,让他们想想,如果你站在别人的角度上想,是什么样的?同理心非常重要,可以帮助更好地与人产生共鸣。</p>\n<p>说到史文森,我最佩服他的一点就是,他有非常强烈的道德感、责任感。可以这么说,他是我见过的把fiduciary duty和intellectual honesty结合得最好的一个人。这两个人永远都是是我的楷模,是我最佩服的人。</p>\n<p>史文森还教会了我很多东西,比如长期价值投资,机构投资,资产配置,对风险的理解等等。中国很多公司,比如社保、中投都把他的书当做必读物。我认为这些方法能推动投资在中国的机构化;对机构化的思考问题,体系搭建都是有帮助的。但比如说有效边界,怎么把它运用过来,在中国是有很多限制条件的,所以若要更好地跟中国状况相结合,还需要做好很多事情。</p>\n<p><b>04 未来的3个机遇</b></p>\n<p>对于互联网/移动互联网来说,我觉得机遇很多,把整个产业链整合是很重要的一块。但我更看好互联网金融,利用互联网把整个金融产业链、金融的产品,从保险、抵押贷款、到消费金融都结合在一起。很多结合的东西现在只是刚刚开始,还有很多机会在后面。</p>\n<p>我们旗下的清流资本已经投资了好几个这方面的公司。比如像51信用卡,这是像美国的Mint,把大家的理财、信用卡都管理起来。我们才刚刚开始这方面的投资,我相信下面还有很多。</p>\n<p>未来5年的投资机遇,我第一是看好创新,第二是看好中产阶级带来的巨大消费机会,第三是看好金融和资产管理行业,现在的需求远远没有被满足,尤其是资产管理,我觉得会有很多好的商业模式出来。</p>\n<p><b>05 每个人都能战斗</b></p>\n<p>有人说我不但是成功的投资者,也是优秀的领导者。但我觉得这两个角色是不一样的,经常有矛盾。一个好的投资者要有强烈的质疑能力,一个好的管理者要有更强大的亲和力与管理能力。</p>\n<p>我的领导风格受两个方面的影响,一是中国古代文化,尤其是老庄哲学;二是互联网思维、互联网精神。</p>\n<p>从中国哲学的角度来讲,比较像是老子的“无为而治”。而从真正的组织行为学来讲,我相信的是互联网模式带来的一种颠覆,我称之为去中心化的管理模式。像在前线打仗,我觉得像任正非而言,应该是听到炮声的人去做决策,而不是听到炮声的人要打电话给连长、再打给营长、营长再打给团长再做决策。去中心化决策模式能大幅度地提升在前线的班长和战士的作战能力。</p>\n<p>第二是大幅度减少公司的层级。我们公司的层级非常少,我是一层,六个合伙人是一层,所有的员工是一层。每个员工和我之间只有合伙人一层。这样的话就大幅度地消减层级。同时,精挑细选每一个员工。“去中心化”加“消减层级”,争取让每一个人都能够战斗。</p>\n<p>但是在管理过程中我也会遇到很多挑战。第一,诱惑。中国有很多事情可以做,我们怎么在诱惑中选取适合自己的,“弱水三千,但取一瓢”;第二,挑战是人才的培养。这个过程比我想象的要漫长,但我们现在摸到了好途径。人要花精力挑选,挑进来之后也要花很多时间按照高瓴文化和价值观来雕琢。好奇、诚实、独立是高瓴资本的企业文化。</p>\n<p>一有时间我还要去运动一下,像冲浪、单板滑雪,都是比较能够充分张扬个性,并且要求在运动中全神贯注。就像你在雪山上,能想什么别的?我夏天经常去冲浪,一周三四次,八点钟出去、九点钟回来洗个澡、九点半去上班,夏天很容易,冬天就去滑雪。</p>\n<p><b>06 张磊的投资哲学</b></p>\n<p>高瓴资本代表了一个非常不一样的投资机构,涵盖了最早期风险投资到私募股权投资再到上市公司投资以及上市以后的兼并投资。我们是全中国唯一在做全产业链事情的机构,这实际上在世界上也是不常见的。</p>\n<p>因为在美国完全不分私募股权和上市公司股权,股权全产业链做得最好最成功最大的实际上在美国,像Buffett既买可口可乐(45.430,+0.80%)股票,买上市公司股票,又自己去做风险投资甚至去做私募股权投资。本质上,投资就应该是这么做的,不要框定是做风险投资还是做上市股权投资。</p>\n<p>实际上,在风云变幻的中国,一年相当于西方的十年二十年,其中最重要的不是股权的format,最重要的是一种什么样的商业模式,有什么样的人。在高瓴资本内部培训中,第一讲就是人与生意,我们要投资什么样的人,要投资什么样的生意模式,人与生意的组合是我们选公司的第一个标准。</p>\n<p>为什么这种标准中大部分的人不能做到?有人说我要么做风险投资,要么做上市股权投资。我觉得有唯一一个belief,就是我们投资的第一原则,是什么呢?是We don‘t have to do anything.你不需要做任何事情,这是我们投资的第一个哲学思想,当你说自己不需要做任何事情时,就有机会做自己认为最重要的事情,我们在投资的过程中都在实践这一原则。</p>\n<p>我们在全球投资的规模和回报也是很靠前的,很多人知道我是耶鲁流派的,很多人知道耶鲁投资基金给了我怎么投资的想法。在翻译《机构投资者的创新之路》时,我对投资有了很深的理解。其实之前我做过很多行业,直到后期才找到我想干的事。</p>\n<p>在中国做投资最难的一点就是市场很浮躁,每天都有人告诉你市场上又发生了什么事情。我如何在浮躁的市场上保持冷静?就是我的第一个投资哲学,“以正治国,以奇用兵,守正用奇。”当你能够做到“正”你就能经得起各种各样的诱惑与挑战。</p>\n<p>为什么要用奇呢?一个人宁愿很conventional failure,也不愿unconventional success,为什么呢?不愿意打破常规去犯错误,这时候各种各样的人,在“守正”之后不能突破各种各样的限制去“用奇”,你的想法如果和别人不一样就可以走出一条自己的道路。</p>\n<p>在中国做投资,知道自己碗里能装多少东西更重要。所以我要讲的第二点就是,“弱水三千,但取一瓢”。你每天的功夫就是要把你的这一瓢做得更大更结实更深,而不是整天壶里的和桌上的菜都要喝掉吃掉。投资里面有这样一个定理,中西文化是相同的,跟老外讲就是a piece of mine,看到别人投了很好的东西你投不到你是不是会着急。你有这个哲学支撑就会找到the piece of mine,something you think make sense。</p>\n<p>当你只有低调的时候才能专心致志地把自己的东西做好。你在早年时就非常高调,拿上帝的话说就是“欲先使其灭亡,必先使其疯狂”。要低调,踏踏实实的做好投资,真正好的资源,真正好的投资人,好的投资项目会逐渐找到你的。</p>\n<p>在这个行业里最危险的事情就是,你是被钱驱动的。要么你很快就挣了很多钱,你不知道干什么,要么你一直没挣到钱很着急,你也不知道要干什么,所以为钱驱动是一个最最dangerous的想法。钱并不重要,是最后的一个nature income,不能成为一个目标,你肯定是为了一个passion,带着你走下来。</p>\n<p>我们是一个“异类”,有独立的思考,不在乎市场,不在乎别的投资机构。</p>","source":"lsy1585022731199","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高瓴资本张磊:人生经历四次转折,最佩服两个人</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高瓴资本张磊:人生经历四次转折,最佩服两个人\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 14:34 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7BrGRylc59CUAS9DqPG17Q><strong>投资人</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>01 人生四次转折\n成为投资人我经历了四个转折点。\n第一,小学考初中,差点没考上。因为我当时学习成绩比较差,小学考初中的最低录取分是140分,我考了141分,刚好多1分。我大概从高中二年级才开始努力;这是我第一次开始感觉要努力,印象特别深。\n第二,我觉得是在人民大学读书。现在我交的很多很好的朋友还都是当年在人大读书的时候认识的,他们当中,现在有的是朋友,有的是关系很深的合作伙伴,有的还一起从事一些...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7BrGRylc59CUAS9DqPG17Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890dd2dfb205aa8aa1d140672304b3c8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7BrGRylc59CUAS9DqPG17Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155033069","content_text":"01 人生四次转折\n成为投资人我经历了四个转折点。\n第一,小学考初中,差点没考上。因为我当时学习成绩比较差,小学考初中的最低录取分是140分,我考了141分,刚好多1分。我大概从高中二年级才开始努力;这是我第一次开始感觉要努力,印象特别深。\n第二,我觉得是在人民大学读书。现在我交的很多很好的朋友还都是当年在人大读书的时候认识的,他们当中,现在有的是朋友,有的是关系很深的合作伙伴,有的还一起从事一些公益性事业。\n第三,我在耶鲁大学捐赠基金工作。在找工作这个煎熬的过程使自己重新发现了自己,再加上第一份工作中跟什么样的人工作,我觉得这两件事对我影响比较大,其实刚进耶鲁基金实习工作是不得已而为之。找了好几个别的工作机会,都被拒绝了。\n第四,就是创业。在为公司打工还是创业两者之间,我选择创业。当时我的工作比较不错,而且和当时的纽约证券交易所CEO,John Thain, 关系很好,所以他委派我担任中国地区第一任NYSE的代表。这是非常好的发展机会,我完全可以继续做下去,但后来我还是决定创业,在2005年我创建了高瓴资本。\n02 做事就要做好\n现在我经常会反复考虑,我发现自己最大特点就是爱折腾,不满足现状,爱挑战自己。今天公司规模已经这么大了,但是我总在公司内部说二次创业,永远创业。这就像我喜欢具有冒险精神的运动一样,在事业方面我也是爱折腾。此外,我从来不满足于现状,可能有些人会觉得你有几百亿美元基金,收管理费就够了,不用那么折腾。但我不愿意这样,要做就要做到最好,要么就不做。\n我觉得自己思考问题还算比较彻底全面,喜欢把很多事情反复地去推敲和琢磨。我很喜欢提早计划,其实创业之前我很早就开始计划,先到基金工作,然后到别的机构,这些机构经常派我回中国,给了我一个时间过渡区来考虑和安排我的事情,每一步走得比较扎实。\n其实,选择和什么样的人一起做事情非常重要。我对这一点非常挑剔,我喜欢找基于长期信任的、熟悉的人一起工作。我身边的核心同事,要么是当年人大的同学,要么就是以前的同事。我的事业最早就是这么一小撮朋友一起做起来的。\n03 最佩服两个人\n我最佩服的人有两个,一个是巴菲特,一个是史文森。这两个人我都有机会比较近距离的接触,我最佩服巴菲特是他的投资能力,另外我也十分佩服他是一个具有强烈同理心的人,英文就是empathy。我很喜欢这种有同理心的人;同理心能使他更好地去了解年轻人,了解和他不一样的人,了解管理层。所以今天我经常和我的管理人员说需要有同理心,这点我从他身上学到的。\n巴菲特总是能站在别人的角度想问题。打个比方,假设从严格的角度来讲,有个管理层不是做到最优秀的,但他总能站在别人的角度,假设自己处在那个环境下,分析这个情况是由于这些或者那些原因造成的。他不是只站在自己的角度,只站在投资者的角度。我觉得站在别人的角度想很不容易,因为每个人都习惯从自己的角度思考问题。\n我觉得这个同理心对于投资,人生,甚至家庭、人际关系,都是一个非常好的品质。我也经常和小孩子交流,让他们想想,如果你站在别人的角度上想,是什么样的?同理心非常重要,可以帮助更好地与人产生共鸣。\n说到史文森,我最佩服他的一点就是,他有非常强烈的道德感、责任感。可以这么说,他是我见过的把fiduciary duty和intellectual honesty结合得最好的一个人。这两个人永远都是是我的楷模,是我最佩服的人。\n史文森还教会了我很多东西,比如长期价值投资,机构投资,资产配置,对风险的理解等等。中国很多公司,比如社保、中投都把他的书当做必读物。我认为这些方法能推动投资在中国的机构化;对机构化的思考问题,体系搭建都是有帮助的。但比如说有效边界,怎么把它运用过来,在中国是有很多限制条件的,所以若要更好地跟中国状况相结合,还需要做好很多事情。\n04 未来的3个机遇\n对于互联网/移动互联网来说,我觉得机遇很多,把整个产业链整合是很重要的一块。但我更看好互联网金融,利用互联网把整个金融产业链、金融的产品,从保险、抵押贷款、到消费金融都结合在一起。很多结合的东西现在只是刚刚开始,还有很多机会在后面。\n我们旗下的清流资本已经投资了好几个这方面的公司。比如像51信用卡,这是像美国的Mint,把大家的理财、信用卡都管理起来。我们才刚刚开始这方面的投资,我相信下面还有很多。\n未来5年的投资机遇,我第一是看好创新,第二是看好中产阶级带来的巨大消费机会,第三是看好金融和资产管理行业,现在的需求远远没有被满足,尤其是资产管理,我觉得会有很多好的商业模式出来。\n05 每个人都能战斗\n有人说我不但是成功的投资者,也是优秀的领导者。但我觉得这两个角色是不一样的,经常有矛盾。一个好的投资者要有强烈的质疑能力,一个好的管理者要有更强大的亲和力与管理能力。\n我的领导风格受两个方面的影响,一是中国古代文化,尤其是老庄哲学;二是互联网思维、互联网精神。\n从中国哲学的角度来讲,比较像是老子的“无为而治”。而从真正的组织行为学来讲,我相信的是互联网模式带来的一种颠覆,我称之为去中心化的管理模式。像在前线打仗,我觉得像任正非而言,应该是听到炮声的人去做决策,而不是听到炮声的人要打电话给连长、再打给营长、营长再打给团长再做决策。去中心化决策模式能大幅度地提升在前线的班长和战士的作战能力。\n第二是大幅度减少公司的层级。我们公司的层级非常少,我是一层,六个合伙人是一层,所有的员工是一层。每个员工和我之间只有合伙人一层。这样的话就大幅度地消减层级。同时,精挑细选每一个员工。“去中心化”加“消减层级”,争取让每一个人都能够战斗。\n但是在管理过程中我也会遇到很多挑战。第一,诱惑。中国有很多事情可以做,我们怎么在诱惑中选取适合自己的,“弱水三千,但取一瓢”;第二,挑战是人才的培养。这个过程比我想象的要漫长,但我们现在摸到了好途径。人要花精力挑选,挑进来之后也要花很多时间按照高瓴文化和价值观来雕琢。好奇、诚实、独立是高瓴资本的企业文化。\n一有时间我还要去运动一下,像冲浪、单板滑雪,都是比较能够充分张扬个性,并且要求在运动中全神贯注。就像你在雪山上,能想什么别的?我夏天经常去冲浪,一周三四次,八点钟出去、九点钟回来洗个澡、九点半去上班,夏天很容易,冬天就去滑雪。\n06 张磊的投资哲学\n高瓴资本代表了一个非常不一样的投资机构,涵盖了最早期风险投资到私募股权投资再到上市公司投资以及上市以后的兼并投资。我们是全中国唯一在做全产业链事情的机构,这实际上在世界上也是不常见的。\n因为在美国完全不分私募股权和上市公司股权,股权全产业链做得最好最成功最大的实际上在美国,像Buffett既买可口可乐(45.430,+0.80%)股票,买上市公司股票,又自己去做风险投资甚至去做私募股权投资。本质上,投资就应该是这么做的,不要框定是做风险投资还是做上市股权投资。\n实际上,在风云变幻的中国,一年相当于西方的十年二十年,其中最重要的不是股权的format,最重要的是一种什么样的商业模式,有什么样的人。在高瓴资本内部培训中,第一讲就是人与生意,我们要投资什么样的人,要投资什么样的生意模式,人与生意的组合是我们选公司的第一个标准。\n为什么这种标准中大部分的人不能做到?有人说我要么做风险投资,要么做上市股权投资。我觉得有唯一一个belief,就是我们投资的第一原则,是什么呢?是We don‘t have to do anything.你不需要做任何事情,这是我们投资的第一个哲学思想,当你说自己不需要做任何事情时,就有机会做自己认为最重要的事情,我们在投资的过程中都在实践这一原则。\n我们在全球投资的规模和回报也是很靠前的,很多人知道我是耶鲁流派的,很多人知道耶鲁投资基金给了我怎么投资的想法。在翻译《机构投资者的创新之路》时,我对投资有了很深的理解。其实之前我做过很多行业,直到后期才找到我想干的事。\n在中国做投资最难的一点就是市场很浮躁,每天都有人告诉你市场上又发生了什么事情。我如何在浮躁的市场上保持冷静?就是我的第一个投资哲学,“以正治国,以奇用兵,守正用奇。”当你能够做到“正”你就能经得起各种各样的诱惑与挑战。\n为什么要用奇呢?一个人宁愿很conventional failure,也不愿unconventional success,为什么呢?不愿意打破常规去犯错误,这时候各种各样的人,在“守正”之后不能突破各种各样的限制去“用奇”,你的想法如果和别人不一样就可以走出一条自己的道路。\n在中国做投资,知道自己碗里能装多少东西更重要。所以我要讲的第二点就是,“弱水三千,但取一瓢”。你每天的功夫就是要把你的这一瓢做得更大更结实更深,而不是整天壶里的和桌上的菜都要喝掉吃掉。投资里面有这样一个定理,中西文化是相同的,跟老外讲就是a piece of mine,看到别人投了很好的东西你投不到你是不是会着急。你有这个哲学支撑就会找到the piece of mine,something you think make sense。\n当你只有低调的时候才能专心致志地把自己的东西做好。你在早年时就非常高调,拿上帝的话说就是“欲先使其灭亡,必先使其疯狂”。要低调,踏踏实实的做好投资,真正好的资源,真正好的投资人,好的投资项目会逐渐找到你的。\n在这个行业里最危险的事情就是,你是被钱驱动的。要么你很快就挣了很多钱,你不知道干什么,要么你一直没挣到钱很着急,你也不知道要干什么,所以为钱驱动是一个最最dangerous的想法。钱并不重要,是最后的一个nature income,不能成为一个目标,你肯定是为了一个passion,带着你走下来。\n我们是一个“异类”,有独立的思考,不在乎市场,不在乎别的投资机构。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135362546,"gmtCreate":1622132352885,"gmtModify":1622132352885,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a>医美行业","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a>医美行业","text":"$新氧(SY)$医美行业","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135362546","repostId":"16213958203564","repostType":17,"repost":{"id":629,"live_id":"16213958203564","type":0,"live_form":0,"category_id":2,"category_name":"老虎公开课","material_type":0,"regions":[1,7,2],"title":"“颜值经济”迎风口,千亿医美市场的投资机会","title_en":"","status":3,"abstract_en":[],"description_html":"","description_html_en":"","source_url":"https://lpl27170.laohu8.com/live/yimei.m3u8","video_url":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/83576bbd5285890818970647854/9797a8fd4754b80005e689d5.mp4","live_img_url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6793884150b1398667db2880b22b0c9b","live_img_url_en":"","activate_content":true,"expected_time":1622030400671,"time_remain":-110275983023,"start_time":0,"end_time":0,"user_counter":"92867","symbols":[],"speaker_info":[],"abstract":["在颜值经济时代,医美意识崛起、消费者年轻化、轻医美快速普及和互联网平台崛起,推动医美行业快速发展。医美行业的产品竞争格局和投资逻辑是怎样的?如何捕捉千亿医美市场的投资机会和布局医美概念呢?","【讲师介绍】\n纪慧诚:《甄选研报》专栏主笔人\nCFA、FRM、RFP,独立投资人,资深财经讲师,国内多家金融机构特聘讲师,曾就职于某大型券商、某金融财经培训公司高级合伙人。","【内容要点】\n医美行业及相关产业链分析\n医美行业产品竞争格局\n医美行业的投资逻辑\n医美行业重点公司点评\n"]},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323187732,"gmtCreate":1615310772326,"gmtModify":1703487250167,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"About what would be really bad about innovation-based strategies ","listText":"About what would be really bad about innovation-based strategies ","text":"About what would be really bad about innovation-based strategies","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323187732","repostId":"2117653720","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362686711,"gmtCreate":1614623034833,"gmtModify":1703479054196,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FCF现金流折现法","listText":"FCF现金流折现法","text":"FCF现金流折现法","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362686711","repostId":"2113528368","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2113528368","pubTimestamp":1614131801,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2113528368?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 09:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is There An Opportunity With NEXT plc's (LON:NXT) 31% Undervaluation?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2113528368","media":"Simply Wall St.","summary":"Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of NEX","content":"<html><body><p>Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of NEXT plc (LON:NXT) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. </p>\n<p> We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. </p>\n<p><span> View our latest analysis for NEXT </span></p>\n<h3> Crunching the numbers </h3>\n<p> We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. </p>\n<p> Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: </p>\n<h4> 10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate </h4>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td></td>\n<td><strong>2021</strong></td>\n<td><strong>2022</strong></td>\n<td><strong>2023</strong></td>\n<td><strong>2024</strong></td>\n<td><strong>2025</strong></td>\n<td><strong>2026</strong></td>\n<td><strong>2027</strong></td>\n<td><strong>2028</strong></td>\n<td><strong>2029</strong></td>\n<td><strong>2030</strong></td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong> Levered FCF (£, Millions) </strong></td>\n<td>UK£466.5m</td>\n<td>UK£443.9m</td>\n<td>UK£595.7m</td>\n<td>UK£613.3m</td>\n<td>UK£728.0m</td>\n<td>UK£804.7m</td>\n<td>UK£866.4m</td>\n<td>UK£915.5m</td>\n<td>UK£954.6m</td>\n<td>UK£986.0m</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Growth Rate Estimate Source</strong></td>\n<td>Analyst x12</td>\n<td>Analyst x12</td>\n<td>Analyst x11</td>\n<td>Analyst x3</td>\n<td>Analyst x1</td>\n<td>Est @ 10.53%</td>\n<td>Est @ 7.67%</td>\n<td>Est @ 5.67%</td>\n<td>Est @ 4.27%</td>\n<td>Est @ 3.29%</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong> Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7% </strong></td>\n<td>UK£437</td>\n<td>UK£390</td>\n<td>UK£490</td>\n<td>UK£472</td>\n<td>UK£525</td>\n<td>UK£544</td>\n<td>UK£549</td>\n<td>UK£543</td>\n<td>UK£531</td>\n<td>UK£513</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)</i><br/><strong>Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)</strong> = UK£5.0b</p>\n<p> We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.7%. </p>\n<p><strong>Terminal Value (TV)</strong>= FCF<sub>2030</sub> × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£986m× (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (6.7%– 1.0%) = UK£17b</p>\n<p><strong>Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)</strong>= TV / (1 + r)<sup>10</sup>= UK£17b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)<sup>10</sup>= UK£9.0b</p>\n<p> The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£14b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£76.1, the company appears quite undervalued at a 31% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. </p>\n<figure>\n<img src=\"https://s1.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/X7v8fluHrNZWNzsMqVPESQ--/cT03NTthcHBpZD15dmlkZW9mZWVkczs-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/simply_wall_st__316/bc0b0271fff09ac6734f62a372fd092e\"/>\n<figcaption>\n LSE:NXT Discounted Cash Flow February 24th 2021\n </figcaption>\n</figure>\n<h3> Important assumptions </h3>\n<p> The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at NEXT as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.964. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. </p>\n<h3> Next Steps: </h3>\n<p> Valuation is only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to \"what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?\" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For NEXT, we've compiled three fundamental items you should assess: </p>\n<ol>\n<li> <strong>Risks</strong>: For example, we've discovered <strong>3 warning signs for NEXT</strong> that you should be aware of before investing here. </li>\n<li> <strong>Management</strong>:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for NXT's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. </li>\n<li> <strong>Other Solid Businesses</strong>: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! </li>\n</ol>\n<p> PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.</p>\n<p><i>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</i><br/><br/><strong>Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?</strong> <strong>Get in touch</strong><strong> with us directly.</strong><i> Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.</i></p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is There An Opportunity With NEXT plc's (LON:NXT) 31% Undervaluation?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs There An Opportunity With NEXT plc's (LON:NXT) 31% Undervaluation?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-24 09:56 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opportunity-next-plcs-lon-nxt-015641973.html><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of NEXT plc (LON:NXT) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opportunity-next-plcs-lon-nxt-015641973.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/6hy.RUtXd9Fh1btqVePIXg--~B/aD00MzI7dz0xMTk0O2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/8TbV6wt98k2uNVVz1zBXug--~B/aD00MzI7dz0xMTk0O2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/simply_wall_st__316/d72a9b1a079e0dab51654ccf2e73ceec","relate_stocks":{"NXT.UK":"NEXT PLC","NVTA":"Invitae Corporation"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opportunity-next-plcs-lon-nxt-015641973.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2113528368","content_text":"Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of NEXT plc (LON:NXT) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. \n We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you. \n View our latest analysis for NEXT \n Crunching the numbers \n We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years. \n Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate: \n 10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate \n\n\n\n\n2021\n2022\n2023\n2024\n2025\n2026\n2027\n2028\n2029\n2030\n\n\n Levered FCF (£, Millions) \nUK£466.5m\nUK£443.9m\nUK£595.7m\nUK£613.3m\nUK£728.0m\nUK£804.7m\nUK£866.4m\nUK£915.5m\nUK£954.6m\nUK£986.0m\n\n\nGrowth Rate Estimate Source\nAnalyst x12\nAnalyst x12\nAnalyst x11\nAnalyst x3\nAnalyst x1\nEst @ 10.53%\nEst @ 7.67%\nEst @ 5.67%\nEst @ 4.27%\nEst @ 3.29%\n\n\n Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7% \nUK£437\nUK£390\nUK£490\nUK£472\nUK£525\nUK£544\nUK£549\nUK£543\nUK£531\nUK£513\n\n\n\n(\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£5.0b\n We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.7%. \nTerminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£986m× (1 + 1.0%) ÷ (6.7%– 1.0%) = UK£17b\nPresent Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£17b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= UK£9.0b\n The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£14b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£76.1, the company appears quite undervalued at a 31% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent. \n\n\n\n LSE:NXT Discounted Cash Flow February 24th 2021\n \n\n Important assumptions \n The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at NEXT as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.964. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business. \n Next Steps: \n Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to \"what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?\" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For NEXT, we've compiled three fundamental items you should assess: \n\n Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for NEXT that you should be aware of before investing here. \n Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for NXT's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors. \n Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered! \n\n PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.\nThis article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363390314,"gmtCreate":1614092820738,"gmtModify":1614092820738,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高屋建瓴的见解,如火花闪过灵感","listText":"高屋建瓴的见解,如火花闪过灵感","text":"高屋建瓴的见解,如火花闪过灵感","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363390314","repostId":"1131272818","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387516474,"gmtCreate":1613754156698,"gmtModify":1613754156698,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在牛市中,市场的反应功能(价格对新闻和事件的反应方式)完全不同。熊市不会考虑经济影响。约翰邓普顿说:“牛市生于极度悲观,成长于怀疑论,死于狂热。”由经济复苏带动的牛市通常不会很快结束。","listText":"在牛市中,市场的反应功能(价格对新闻和事件的反应方式)完全不同。熊市不会考虑经济影响。约翰邓普顿说:“牛市生于极度悲观,成长于怀疑论,死于狂热。”由经济复苏带动的牛市通常不会很快结束。","text":"在牛市中,市场的反应功能(价格对新闻和事件的反应方式)完全不同。熊市不会考虑经济影响。约翰邓普顿说:“牛市生于极度悲观,成长于怀疑论,死于狂热。”由经济复苏带动的牛市通常不会很快结束。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387516474","repostId":"1156000449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"content":"Lazlo Birinyi把牛市分为四个阶段,勉强,巩固,接受和繁荣。其中,第一阶段勉强(从熊市低点反转)和最后阶段繁荣(狂热开始)提供最佳回报。","text":"Lazlo Birinyi把牛市分为四个阶段,勉强,巩固,接受和繁荣。其中,第一阶段勉强(从熊市低点反转)和最后阶段繁荣(狂热开始)提供最佳回报。","html":"Lazlo Birinyi把牛市分为四个阶段,勉强,巩固,接受和繁荣。其中,第一阶段勉强(从熊市低点反转)和最后阶段繁荣(狂热开始)提供最佳回报。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384443778,"gmtCreate":1613673692094,"gmtModify":1613673692094,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"宏观科技属性的成长不一定涨幅落后于价值","listText":"宏观科技属性的成长不一定涨幅落后于价值","text":"宏观科技属性的成长不一定涨幅落后于价值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384443778","repostId":"2112386761","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2112386761","pubTimestamp":1613647954,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2112386761?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-18 19:32","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"科技股近日回落 华尔街女股神仍看好特斯拉 称“更有信心”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112386761","media":"腾讯自选股","summary":"科技股近日回落 华尔街女股神仍看好特斯拉 称“更有信心” 来源:美港电讯收益率迎来近三年内最快速的一次上涨,这开始令一些股市宠儿的吸引力下降。罕见暴跌 ARK仍看好特斯拉在牛年新春之际,特斯拉近日的走势却称得上是一路熊途。桥水基金四季度清仓74只股票,包括卖出特斯拉3.565万股。过去一个月,特斯拉股价下跌5%,但过去12个月其表现仍然可观,上涨了386%。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:科技股近日回落 华尔街女股神仍看好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a> 称“更有信心” 来源:美港电讯</p><p>收益率迎来近三年内最快速的一次上涨,这开始令一些股市宠儿的吸引力下降。</p><p>随着经济前景的好转、新增病例的减少以及更多财政刺激措施的即将出台,2月份以来,基准10年期美国国债收益率已上涨23个基点,这将是自2018年初以来的最高月度涨幅。大部分的变动都发生在过去几天。因此,要去说服自己,相信股市中高价领域的天价估值越来越难。</p><p>以为例,该公司股价在10天内下跌逾10%。这给“木头姐”Cathie Wood颇受投资者欢迎的价值280亿美元的方舟创新带来了压力,因该<font>ETF</font>将特斯拉与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku Inc</a>。和Teladoc Health Inc。等其他公司一同视作持仓中权重最大的个股。一篮子昂贵的软件股周三下跌2%。在成长型股票表现超过大盘两个月后,价值股似乎再次占据了上风。</p><p>投资公司Marketcipher Partners首席投资官Abdel Missa表示,低主要是由经济放缓所导致的,这增加了仍表现良好的成长型股票的吸引力,吸引投资者为它们支付过高的价格。</p><p>“因此,如果开始迅速上升,就会发生相反的情况,”Missa说。“成长型股票的<font>溢价</font>开始消失,其涨幅也将放缓。”</p><p><font>10年期国债收益率迎来2018年以来最快的月度涨幅</font></p><p>基准10年期美国国债收益率本周自2月份以来首次突破1.3%,而10年期盈亏平衡通胀预期攀升至7年来最高水平。这使得价值股重新受到了青睐,能源和金融股是同期表现最好的股票。尽管周三好于预期的零售销售数据未能推高收益率,但股市中价格较低的周期性领域的表现继续强于预期。</p><p>标普500价值股指数近来表现亦好于标普500成长股指数。截至纽约时间2月17日下午3点15分,特斯拉股价下跌约0.5%,跌幅一度达4.3%,而ARKK下跌近3%。与此同时,<font>标准普尔500指数</font>下跌0.1%。</p><p><font><font>利率</font></font>上升成长股<价值股?并非如此</p><p>电子商务公司Etsy Inc。的股价在2020年飙升逾300%,如今也面临压力,两天的跌幅已超过5%。</p><p>牛津经济(Oxford Economics)的策略师在周三的一份报告中写道:“市场上不断扩大的通胀趋势,可能会为轮调提供额外动力。”“由于预期增长率较高,新零售概念股的存续期相对较长,这意味着,如果债券收益率像我们预期的那样继续走高,它们的估值相对于整体市场可能会面临压力。”</p><p>可以肯定的是,即便在利率上升时期,成长股的增长的确滞后于价值股的增长,历史表明,两者之间的关系并不总是如此明确。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc。)最近的一份报告显示,“利率变化不太可能成为科技公司这类公司股价的主要驱动因素”,因为“它们的长期表现和特殊的增长模式更加关键”。</p><p>所谓的“科技巨头”也和特斯拉或Etsy等公司有所不同。包括David Kostin在内的高盛策略估计,在FAAMG这五只股票中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a> Inc。、、、和Alphabet Inc。自去年2月以来的回报率中,70%以上是由利润增长推动而非由估值的提升推动的。他们写道:“FAAMG既得益于低利率,这使其高增长的现金流更有价值,也得益于在经济衰退期间仍有旺盛需求的商业模式。”</p><p>投资公司Marketcipher的首席投资官Missa也对此表示赞同。</p><p>他说:“如果你对科技行业有所研究,你会发现这是一个长期增长的行业。”“世界正在走向数字化,世界正在走向人工智能,这样的势头并不会在短期内停止。”</p><p><font>罕见暴跌 ARK仍看好特斯拉</font></p><p>在牛年新春之际,特斯拉近日的走势却称得上是一路熊途。</p><p>先是2月12日,全球最大的对冲桥水基金向美国证监会提交的13F报告显示,去年四季度清仓特斯拉,建仓做多,减持SPDR Gold Shares,SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust为其第一大持仓股;在十大重仓标的中,获增持,持仓规模环比增长19%,排名第6位,此前排名第4位。</p><p>桥水基金四季度清仓74只股票,包括卖出特斯拉3.565万股。建仓做多169只股票,其中,买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>41.2775万股,买入140万股,买入36.9670万股,买入71.4665万股,并买入和高盛等机构,买入,买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>14.9263万股。</p><p>而不久前出台的数据显示,特斯拉1月在国内市场共交付15484辆新车,实现同比1.5万辆增长,但相较于去年12月份的23804辆减少了8320辆,环比下降35%。其中,明星车型Mdoel 3在1月交付了13843辆,环比大跌42%。</p><p>虽说1月份的国内交付量不如预期,国内媒体对此也是众说纷纭,更有将特斯拉1月交付量的下降和此前频发的质量问题联系起来的。</p><p>但是综合受到春节假期,受到元旦等法定假期影响,营业额、利润等数据震荡微调,恐怕是行业的普遍现象,再者,特斯拉在一月份还出口欧洲、澳洲等地区一万多辆Model 3新车,有媒体在今年1.19日发布消息称,特斯拉上海超级工厂所生产的首批7000辆国产Model 3已在上海装船,准备运往欧洲市场。</p><p>木头姐Cathie Wood也就此表示,Ark investment仍看好特斯拉,并将继续买入这家电动汽车制造商的股票。</p><p>木头姐周三在ETF Edge上对CNBC的Bob Pisani表示:“我们研究了拼车可能带来的潜在影响后,对特斯拉的信心增强了。拼车可以显著降低风险,这是一项比电动汽车更有利可图的业务。”“尽管对于是否应该推出一个由人类驱动的远程援助网络,特斯拉内部存在争议,但我们认为,这仍将是通向他们的自动驾驶战略的一个极好的桥梁,我们认为他们会决定这么做。”</p><p>FactSet的数据显示,Ark investment的旗舰基金Ark Innovation仅今年一年就获得了53亿美元的入。这只交易型开放式<font>指数基金</font>的交易代码为ark,今年以来已经上涨了近20%,而在2020年,该基金的涨幅高达150%。特斯拉是方舟创新持仓最大的股票,占该ETF总权重的8.5%以上。</p><p>Wood表示,Ark每天都会报告其交易情况,这样的每日更新反映了特斯拉的购买情况。周三,特斯拉的股价下跌了2%以上,不过在Wood发表上述言论后,股价又迎来了小幅上涨。过去一个月,特斯拉股价下跌5%,但过去12个月其表现仍然可观,上涨了386%。</p><p>“随着时间的推移,我们肯定他们在人工智能方面的专业知识,他们收集了300亿英里的真实驾驶数据,这一点无人能及,我认为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>收集的数据可能有3000万,但是特斯拉是整整300亿,我们都知道在全球AI(人工智能)和自动驾驶领域,有着最多数据和最高质量数据的公司会笑到最后。”Wood补充道。</p><p>Cathie Wood表示,自动驾驶汽车成功入市的可能性越来越大,因此Ark的目标价也将在未来某个时间点出台。</p><p>特斯拉对于比特币一向青睐有加,其购买了价值15亿美元的比特币,大约是这家电动汽车制造商资金的8%。该公司表示,购买比特币是为了“提高灵活性,进一步多元化并实现现金回报的最大化”,并表示将接受通过比特币进行购车。</p><p>对此,Wood表示,“我认为我们从未想过会在企业的<font>资产负债表</font>上普遍用比特币替代现金。”“但是Square和特斯拉等公司选择了配置,这让我们非常放心。在创新方面,他们站在了变革的正确一边,所以我们认为,他们让自己的现金流保持多样化是个明智的选择。”</p><p>Ark Invest旗下的7只ETF基金都专注于“颠覆性创新”,投资了诸如Roku、CRISPR Therapeutics和Square这样的创新型公司。</p><p>Ark Invest如今管理的<font>资产</font>超过580亿美元。</p><p>(文章来源:美港电讯)</p>只需一个账户,玩转场内场外,更有三重好礼等你来!3分钟极速开户,上车牛年行情 >></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技股近日回落 华尔街女股神仍看好特斯拉 称“更有信心”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技股近日回落 华尔街女股神仍看好特斯拉 称“更有信心”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-18 19:32 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-02-18/doc-ikftpnny7467493.shtml><strong>腾讯自选股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:科技股近日回落 华尔街女股神仍看好特斯拉 称“更有信心” 来源:美港电讯收益率迎来近三年内最快速的一次上涨,这开始令一些股市宠儿的吸引力下降。随着经济前景的好转、新增病例的减少以及更多财政刺激措施的即将出台,2月份以来,基准10年期美国国债收益率已上涨23个基点,这将是自2018年初以来的最高月度涨幅。大部分的变动都发生在过去几天。因此,要去说服自己,相信股市中高价领域的天价估值越来越难。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-02-18/doc-ikftpnny7467493.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1626eb8fbfda09384173ea058b0eb875","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","TSLA":"特斯拉","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2021-02-18/doc-ikftpnny7467493.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112386761","content_text":"原标题:科技股近日回落 华尔街女股神仍看好特斯拉 称“更有信心” 来源:美港电讯收益率迎来近三年内最快速的一次上涨,这开始令一些股市宠儿的吸引力下降。随着经济前景的好转、新增病例的减少以及更多财政刺激措施的即将出台,2月份以来,基准10年期美国国债收益率已上涨23个基点,这将是自2018年初以来的最高月度涨幅。大部分的变动都发生在过去几天。因此,要去说服自己,相信股市中高价领域的天价估值越来越难。以为例,该公司股价在10天内下跌逾10%。这给“木头姐”Cathie Wood颇受投资者欢迎的价值280亿美元的方舟创新带来了压力,因该ETF将特斯拉与Roku Inc。和Teladoc Health Inc。等其他公司一同视作持仓中权重最大的个股。一篮子昂贵的软件股周三下跌2%。在成长型股票表现超过大盘两个月后,价值股似乎再次占据了上风。投资公司Marketcipher Partners首席投资官Abdel Missa表示,低主要是由经济放缓所导致的,这增加了仍表现良好的成长型股票的吸引力,吸引投资者为它们支付过高的价格。“因此,如果开始迅速上升,就会发生相反的情况,”Missa说。“成长型股票的溢价开始消失,其涨幅也将放缓。”10年期国债收益率迎来2018年以来最快的月度涨幅基准10年期美国国债收益率本周自2月份以来首次突破1.3%,而10年期盈亏平衡通胀预期攀升至7年来最高水平。这使得价值股重新受到了青睐,能源和金融股是同期表现最好的股票。尽管周三好于预期的零售销售数据未能推高收益率,但股市中价格较低的周期性领域的表现继续强于预期。标普500价值股指数近来表现亦好于标普500成长股指数。截至纽约时间2月17日下午3点15分,特斯拉股价下跌约0.5%,跌幅一度达4.3%,而ARKK下跌近3%。与此同时,标准普尔500指数下跌0.1%。利率上升成长股<价值股?并非如此电子商务公司Etsy Inc。的股价在2020年飙升逾300%,如今也面临压力,两天的跌幅已超过5%。牛津经济(Oxford Economics)的策略师在周三的一份报告中写道:“市场上不断扩大的通胀趋势,可能会为轮调提供额外动力。”“由于预期增长率较高,新零售概念股的存续期相对较长,这意味着,如果债券收益率像我们预期的那样继续走高,它们的估值相对于整体市场可能会面临压力。”可以肯定的是,即便在利率上升时期,成长股的增长的确滞后于价值股的增长,历史表明,两者之间的关系并不总是如此明确。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc。)最近的一份报告显示,“利率变化不太可能成为科技公司这类公司股价的主要驱动因素”,因为“它们的长期表现和特殊的增长模式更加关键”。所谓的“科技巨头”也和特斯拉或Etsy等公司有所不同。包括David Kostin在内的高盛策略估计,在FAAMG这五只股票中,Facebook Inc。、、、和Alphabet Inc。自去年2月以来的回报率中,70%以上是由利润增长推动而非由估值的提升推动的。他们写道:“FAAMG既得益于低利率,这使其高增长的现金流更有价值,也得益于在经济衰退期间仍有旺盛需求的商业模式。”投资公司Marketcipher的首席投资官Missa也对此表示赞同。他说:“如果你对科技行业有所研究,你会发现这是一个长期增长的行业。”“世界正在走向数字化,世界正在走向人工智能,这样的势头并不会在短期内停止。”罕见暴跌 ARK仍看好特斯拉在牛年新春之际,特斯拉近日的走势却称得上是一路熊途。先是2月12日,全球最大的对冲桥水基金向美国证监会提交的13F报告显示,去年四季度清仓特斯拉,建仓做多,减持SPDR Gold Shares,SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust为其第一大持仓股;在十大重仓标的中,获增持,持仓规模环比增长19%,排名第6位,此前排名第4位。桥水基金四季度清仓74只股票,包括卖出特斯拉3.565万股。建仓做多169只股票,其中,买入摩根大通41.2775万股,买入140万股,买入36.9670万股,买入71.4665万股,并买入和高盛等机构,买入,买入微软14.9263万股。而不久前出台的数据显示,特斯拉1月在国内市场共交付15484辆新车,实现同比1.5万辆增长,但相较于去年12月份的23804辆减少了8320辆,环比下降35%。其中,明星车型Mdoel 3在1月交付了13843辆,环比大跌42%。虽说1月份的国内交付量不如预期,国内媒体对此也是众说纷纭,更有将特斯拉1月交付量的下降和此前频发的质量问题联系起来的。但是综合受到春节假期,受到元旦等法定假期影响,营业额、利润等数据震荡微调,恐怕是行业的普遍现象,再者,特斯拉在一月份还出口欧洲、澳洲等地区一万多辆Model 3新车,有媒体在今年1.19日发布消息称,特斯拉上海超级工厂所生产的首批7000辆国产Model 3已在上海装船,准备运往欧洲市场。木头姐Cathie Wood也就此表示,Ark investment仍看好特斯拉,并将继续买入这家电动汽车制造商的股票。木头姐周三在ETF Edge上对CNBC的Bob Pisani表示:“我们研究了拼车可能带来的潜在影响后,对特斯拉的信心增强了。拼车可以显著降低风险,这是一项比电动汽车更有利可图的业务。”“尽管对于是否应该推出一个由人类驱动的远程援助网络,特斯拉内部存在争议,但我们认为,这仍将是通向他们的自动驾驶战略的一个极好的桥梁,我们认为他们会决定这么做。”FactSet的数据显示,Ark investment的旗舰基金Ark Innovation仅今年一年就获得了53亿美元的入。这只交易型开放式指数基金的交易代码为ark,今年以来已经上涨了近20%,而在2020年,该基金的涨幅高达150%。特斯拉是方舟创新持仓最大的股票,占该ETF总权重的8.5%以上。Wood表示,Ark每天都会报告其交易情况,这样的每日更新反映了特斯拉的购买情况。周三,特斯拉的股价下跌了2%以上,不过在Wood发表上述言论后,股价又迎来了小幅上涨。过去一个月,特斯拉股价下跌5%,但过去12个月其表现仍然可观,上涨了386%。“随着时间的推移,我们肯定他们在人工智能方面的专业知识,他们收集了300亿英里的真实驾驶数据,这一点无人能及,我认为谷歌收集的数据可能有3000万,但是特斯拉是整整300亿,我们都知道在全球AI(人工智能)和自动驾驶领域,有着最多数据和最高质量数据的公司会笑到最后。”Wood补充道。Cathie Wood表示,自动驾驶汽车成功入市的可能性越来越大,因此Ark的目标价也将在未来某个时间点出台。特斯拉对于比特币一向青睐有加,其购买了价值15亿美元的比特币,大约是这家电动汽车制造商资金的8%。该公司表示,购买比特币是为了“提高灵活性,进一步多元化并实现现金回报的最大化”,并表示将接受通过比特币进行购车。对此,Wood表示,“我认为我们从未想过会在企业的资产负债表上普遍用比特币替代现金。”“但是Square和特斯拉等公司选择了配置,这让我们非常放心。在创新方面,他们站在了变革的正确一边,所以我们认为,他们让自己的现金流保持多样化是个明智的选择。”Ark Invest旗下的7只ETF基金都专注于“颠覆性创新”,投资了诸如Roku、CRISPR Therapeutics和Square这样的创新型公司。Ark Invest如今管理的资产超过580亿美元。(文章来源:美港电讯)只需一个账户,玩转场内场外,更有三重好礼等你来!3分钟极速开户,上车牛年行情 >>","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384457464,"gmtCreate":1613672735458,"gmtModify":1613672735458,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"破坏式创新,关于创业的心法","listText":"破坏式创新,关于创业的心法","text":"破坏式创新,关于创业的心法","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384457464","repostId":"2112865188","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2112865188","pubTimestamp":1613630826,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2112865188?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-18 14:47","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉与五菱宏光:“破坏式创新”的叛将与门徒","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2112865188","media":"虎嗅","summary":"克里斯藤森生前有过一个困扰,那就是关于他的“破坏式创新”理论随着信息产业的加速进步,在被更广泛认知的同时,也在被曲解和滥用。对此,克氏曾经在《哈佛商业评论》上发表过一篇为亦是倡导亦是正名的文章,希望大","content":"<p>克里斯藤森生前有过一个困扰,那就是关于他的“破坏式创新”理论随着信息产业的加速进步,在被更广泛认知的同时,也在被曲解和滥用。对此,克氏曾经在《哈佛商业评论》上发表过一篇为亦是倡导亦是正名的文章,希望大家不要去过度看待“破坏式创新”。</p>\n<p>克里斯藤森提出“破坏式创新”理论是在《创新者的窘境》一书中,国内有过两个译本,最早是江苏人民出版在2001年出版的,这个版本的翻译非常生硬。后来是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300788\">中信出版</a>社又出了一版,翻译质量略有提高。第二个版本出的时候,正是国内的互联网创业高潮期,加之国内有一个叫李善友的培训师用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>去硬套克氏经典,并在文字上玩起了游戏,用更有蛊惑意味的“颠覆式创新”去替代“破化式创新”的说法。</p>\n<p>这属于国内以讹传讹的商业文化现象,咱们按下不表。克里斯藤森曾经说,很多人并没有读过《创新者的窘境》,并认为这是误读的根源之一。我相信他的判断是对的。至于为什么很多人没有读过,我想原因有二:</p>\n<p>首先,克氏并不是一个擅于文笔的学者,或者说他不是一个鼓动型作家。美国学者虽然大都有不错的文字表达素养,但有些大师确实就在追求理论表达的一板一眼,有些表达哪怕冗长繁琐,也不能失去精确度。这也给翻译带来了难度。</p>\n<p>其次,《创新者的窘境》这本书所依赖的案例距离我们的时代有些遥远,比如磁盘这个东西,我们1980年初的人倒是亲身经历了磁盘在PC时代的变化直到消亡,但对于85后90后,可能真没啥机会见识磁盘的存在。更别提大型商用机时代的超大磁盘了。书里还有小型钢铁厂逐步抗衡大型钢铁厂,如果你不去商学院专门学习这些案例,可能这辈子都不会了解。</p>\n<p>换言之,这本书的内容并不精彩,也难说吸引人。但话又说回来了,那些吸引人的管理类流行读物又有几本有生命力呢?</p>\n<p>在《创新者的窘境》中,和这个时代最友好的内容应该是第九章(江苏人民出版社版本)的内容,即克氏为电动汽车的破坏式发展布置了一个路线图。<b>检验“破坏式创新”路线图最好的办法莫如特斯拉。</b>这本书写于1997年,特斯拉的诞生是2003年,2013年进入商业化阶段,目前的市值是8078.29亿美元,大于所有传统汽车厂商的市值之和。</p>\n<p>克氏早早预判出了电动车会成为一项破坏式技术(克氏的“技术”是指产品或者服务)。而特斯拉是否真的构成“破坏式创新”直接决定了其未来的命运走向,起码克里斯藤森是这么看的。</p>\n<p>首先要判断,电动车是否可以构成“破坏式创新”技术?这就要看技术改善的趋势和市场需求变化的趋势是否有重叠?并且在重叠之后,技术改善的速度是否能够快于市场需求变化的速度?如果是的话,那么电动车就可以构成“破坏式创新”了。如下图<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c242b0bb9880a9d22a909c0b6669c7d9\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">按照当时的电动车研发状况,续航里程、零百加速和最高时速这三大性能指标,电动车都远逊于汽油车。但如果去除掉当地针对性法规政策的限制,三大指标的改善速度会越来越快。</p>\n<p>其次,电动车的发展不构成对主流车商的威胁,换言之,主流车商没有动力去推电动车,因为这不在他们的价值网里面。</p>\n<p>第三,当时的专家认为电动车性能永远无法超越汽油车,克里斯藤森认为专家是错的,理由是一旦电动车自己的价值网确立起来之后,技术发展就会进行延续性发展的轨道,技术只能是越来越超越市场需求。</p>\n<p>千万别听专家的,这是克氏幽默且犀利的地方。</p>\n<p>在确认了电动车可以构成“破坏式创新”之后,就要制定发展策略。</p>\n<p><b>克氏按照自己理论的思路,认为电动车的市场一定是主流车商的盲区或者是看到了也不愿意去做的那个市场,也就是我们说的“非用户市场”。</b>这个市场对电动车的性能要求低于主流车商提供的市场性能,而对便利性和性价比更在意。</p>\n<p>一旦这个市场找到,并确立了相关的价值网,电动车就开始延续性创新,不断在技术性能上实现飞跃,进而去实现对主流市场的攻击。克氏的这个思路是贯穿了他整个理论体系的,也是他基于挖掘机、复印机、钢铁公司的研究得出的。</p>\n<p>第二步是找到这些对汽车需求在10公里以内的人群,比如接送孩子上下学的家长,比如摩托车市场的天堂东南亚。在这里,克里斯藤森提醒了大家,这是一个创业过程,第一要有不断迭代的意识,第二要有试错心态,第三不要把战略资源放进同一个篮子。</p>\n<p>在产品层面,克里斯藤森也给出了三个原则:</p>\n<p>第一,简单、便捷、可靠。</p>\n<p>第二,没有人知道产品的最终市场在哪里,也就是它的市场未来要有意外的效果。</p>\n<p>第三,一定要足够低价,只有低价才能吸引用户支付溢价。</p>\n<p>“破坏式创新”可以被认为是竞争战略,重要的就是它选择的破坏据点具有足够的隐蔽性,而这个隐蔽性又要和技术改善能力结合到一起。比如电动车从10公里需求以内作为破坏据点,然后慢慢搭建自己的价值网,再利用这个稳固的网络让技术不断进化,最后和主流市场的技术需求产生交叉。</p>\n<p>克里斯藤森也是深谙兵法的人。</p>\n<p>至此,我们了解了克里斯藤森对于电动车作为破坏式创新的蓝图,下面就看看被国内商学院吹爆天的特斯拉到底符不符合克氏的这个图景。</p>\n<p>首先,特斯拉完全违背了低价和低端的破坏据点原则,而是直接选择了高端市场。从早期和莲花生产的Roadster到Model S。动辄7万美元的售价指向的是对传统汽车消费群体中,对性能有更高需求的那部分人。换句话说,特斯拉最开始的主打人群是在延续性创新这条线上的尖端客户。</p>\n<p>其次,一开始就着力于电池技术是克里斯滕森极力反对的,因为他认为这是针对主流市场的延续性创新。因为破坏式创新的消费群体并不存在,所以电池技术首先能满足最低需求即可,同时这也是一种反向策略,看看到底谁更愿意使用低性能电池车,这样的人群或许就是破坏式创新要面对的市场。</p>\n<p>但特斯拉为什么今天可以成功?起码在市值表现上独领风骚,绝处逢生之后创造了一个又一个奇迹。</p>\n<p>显然,特斯拉不符合克里斯藤森关于“破坏式创新”的设想。当然克里斯藤森本人也反对把这个理论作为放之四海而皆准的真理,他认为成功或者失败是无法靠单一理论来解释的。</p>\n<p>我们可以以“破坏式创新”为立足点,用超越这个理论的视角去看:</p>\n<p>首先,我们把特斯拉的发展分为两个阶段,以Model S为界限,分为前特斯拉和后特斯拉。前特斯拉时期,在马斯克入住之后,主要是游说政府拿补贴和引入奔驰、丰田、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">松下</a>这样的股东提供零部件和提升自己拿政府低息贷款的筹码。这个时期的特斯拉经营并不算好,马斯克一方面要保证产品能做出来,一边在制造明星效应。</p>\n<p>我们可以认为这是特斯拉在选择破坏式据点后应该承受的代价。如果马斯克真的选择了克里斯藤森的路线图,马斯克的英雄色彩会黯淡很多。也可以从另一方面想,克里斯藤森忽略了资本市场的力量。</p>\n<p>Model S横空出世之后,马斯克突然宣布开放全部专利,在现金流紧张的情况下收购太阳城,进而完成了特斯拉、SpacX、太阳城三位一体的生态帝国。这就是马斯克伟大的地方,利用个人超强的vison突破理论格局,画出了新的商业版图。</p>\n<p>理论和实践的一个区别是,理论是结构思维,行动是非结构化行为。特斯拉不符合严格意义上的“破坏式创新”,但马斯克这个人却可以靠理念和行动改变战略节奏。比如,克里斯藤森说你先用低性能技术找到非用户市场,再去利用价值网络进行完善和延续。但马斯克破坏了第一步,他先用技术找到主流高端市场,然后马不停蹄地搭建起了自己的价值网。</p>\n<p>克里斯藤森是研究产业经济的,他的理论带有浓厚的产业色彩,相对静态化。而马斯克作为企业家,他是从资本和品牌切入的,更具有实操性,毕竟资本不会给你流出大把时间。</p>\n<p>特斯拉在逐步完善价值网之后,才推出了真正的杀器Model 3。<b>这可以看作是马斯克向破坏式创新的回归,用持续降低的电池成本和逐渐强大的电动车性能去挤压传统车商的市场。</b></p>\n<p>我们回过头来看,特斯拉这条路是一条风险巨大的道路。马斯克的伟大不在于火箭上天,而是他身上的企业家精神打破了经典理论的约束。至于国内的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、理想、小鹏之流,不过是在一条马斯克已经开辟的新道路中,做一些完善市场需求的事情,有的可能连延续性创新都称不上。</p>\n<p>聊完特斯拉,咱们再看一个现象级产品,如图所示:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14b1f03283b201744f1ec7b5f7e60974\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这是一张2020年的中国电动车市场销量图,第一名特斯拉Model 3,第二名是国民神车五菱宏光Mini EV,而第三名和第二名之间的差距就有点天壤之别了。可以说这么说特斯拉和上汽通用五菱几乎主导了整个国内电动车市场,如果说特斯拉是靠长久的市场积累才有了这样的神迹,那么五菱宏光从货运神车到凭借一款超低价电动车再次创造销售奇迹,就问你怕不怕?</p>\n<p>在媒体上,这款Mini EV的声量别说和特斯拉相比,即使跟国内三大新势力都没得比。没有人会去在意这样一款低端到极致的产品,但数字说明了一切。</p>\n<p>我是很偶然关注到这款车的,一次是在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>,一次是在我们小区里看到了实车。最近几天在路面上看到的更多了一些。带着好奇心去查了五菱宏光Mini EV的一些资料,发现了一个特别有趣的现象,——<b>这个产品走的是一条和特斯拉完完全全相反的路线,也就是一条标准的克里斯藤森式的路线。</b></p>\n<p>上汽通用五菱在开发Mini EV的时候,首先明确了三点:</p>\n<p>第一,不依赖于补贴模式。他们认为补贴推动的技术路线恰恰与我们潜在的用</p>\n<p>户需求相反。目前的补贴政策实际上是鼓励长续驶里程的,而长续驶里程的电动车很难把成本降下来,在整车能耗上也存在很大的浪费,这反而对电动车的推广不利。这个意思就是说,低价是打开非用户市场的钥匙,而不是在电池技术上做延续性创新。</p>\n<p>第二,不把<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>需求作为配置,而是当作汽车整体架构。现在电动汽车的一个大买点就是智能化,每一代新车型都伴随着智能化的提升,就像每一代PC都会伴随着CPU的更新,这往往带来技术需求大于市场需求的情况。在前智能手机时代,RIM可以独领风骚三五年,恰恰就是因为其利用独特的产品架构实现了超长的电池续航能力。从结构而不是配置上去思考问题,一个是可以降低成本,一个是可以提升用户使用的便捷度。</p>\n<p>第三,全新的商业模式,小额高频,比如用泊车APP取代需要花费更多资金安装的泊车辅助系统。当然了,我看资料里这一块还属于设想阶段,还要看未来执行的情况。</p>\n<p>五菱宏光走的是一条严格意义上的以低成本、短里程为破坏据点的破坏式创新之路,它的用户构想和克里斯藤森的构想非常接近,而且严格限制了对电池技术的开发和使用,仅仅满足国家指定的上路历程标准(80公里)即可。</p>\n<p>我在懂车帝上查了一下,MiniEV并没有走高性价比路线,而是提供了一个用户可以承受的最低售价,然后用户可以根据自己的需求进行选装,比如安全气囊、手动空调、遮阳板。这还是一个基于用户成本考虑的销售策略。</p>\n<p>还有一个关键点,那就是充电桩。克里斯藤森曾经说电池的性能在破坏式创新时,并不是首要考虑的问题,原因就在于短途电池会强迫企业去想方设法搭建更有利用户使用的充电桩。而一旦把电池性能放在首位,充电桩问题就不会显得那么挤迫,那你面对的市场很可能又回到了主流用户市场。</p>\n<p>先满足短途用户用车需求,再搭建大家充电桩,再依赖这个网络去实现电池性能的延续创新,这就是克里斯藤森的路径。再看五菱宏光,用慢充取代快充,一个是可以大幅降低用户的费用(慢充的售价连快充的零头都不到),一个是可以继续稳固被发掘出来的新市场,进一步拉开和主流市场的距离。</p>\n<p>当然,这样一来五菱宏光的新价值网络中还有一个重要环节需要被补齐,那就是如何去实现慢充的落地和小范围人群的试用与迭代。五菱宏光搞了一个“柳州模式”,其实就是把当地政府拉进这个价值网,从上至下来推。</p>\n<p>政府力量在充电网络中始终都扮演强角色,早期的Better Place在全球范围内的失败在很大程度上就是因为遭遇了过大的行政阻力。</p>\n<p>至此,我们可以清晰看到一个破坏式创新的图景出现了,在一个此前并不存在的用户市场中,形成了一张独特的价值网。当这个网络运行足够成熟的时候,产品就在破坏式创新的据点慢慢占牢,然后像更大更主流的市场逆袭。</p>\n<p>克里斯藤森生前念念不忘的那个低成本、短里程的电动车市场空间,看来的确是存在的。</p>\n<p>大概在20年前,克里斯藤森在另一本书里写过,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>一直在中国想要寻找一个合作伙伴,打造一个3000美元的产品平台,然后把这个平台再推向自己的高端产品上。事实上,我们从五菱宏光EV上看到了一些这个理念的影子。</p>\n<p>我用“破坏式创新”去解构特斯拉和五菱宏光,意义在哪里?很多人都会问,是不是破坏式创新又有什么用呢?我赢了就可以啊。</p>\n<p>我承认,理论是死的,人是活的。<b>但理论的作用不在于告诉你怎么做,而是要给你一个思考路径,知道你是怎么赢的,又可能将来是怎么输的。</b>理论有局限性,人也有局限性。理论有创造性,人也有创造性。我们需要看到事物和自己的两面。</p>\n<p>克里斯滕森生前说,破坏式创新是个过程,需要时间来证明。而且,有的企业现在不是破坏式创新,不代表将来不会,他对Uber给予了厚望,同样我们也可以对滴滴寄予厚望,比如他们是否可以真的找到现有细分市场中持续降低成本、扩大价格优势的路径。</p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉与五菱宏光:“破坏式创新”的叛将与门徒\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-18 14:47 北京时间 <a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/410003.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>克里斯藤森生前有过一个困扰,那就是关于他的“破坏式创新”理论随着信息产业的加速进步,在被更广泛认知的同时,也在被曲解和滥用。对此,克氏曾经在《哈佛商业评论》上发表过一篇为亦是倡导亦是正名的文章,希望大家不要去过度看待“破坏式创新”。\n克里斯藤森提出“破坏式创新”理论是在《创新者的窘境》一书中,国内有过两个译本,最早是江苏人民出版在2001年出版的,这个版本的翻译非常生硬。后来是中信出版社又出了一版...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/410003.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577e499e898d722a6d935282f36956a3","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","00305":"五菱汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/410003.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2112865188","content_text":"克里斯藤森生前有过一个困扰,那就是关于他的“破坏式创新”理论随着信息产业的加速进步,在被更广泛认知的同时,也在被曲解和滥用。对此,克氏曾经在《哈佛商业评论》上发表过一篇为亦是倡导亦是正名的文章,希望大家不要去过度看待“破坏式创新”。\n克里斯藤森提出“破坏式创新”理论是在《创新者的窘境》一书中,国内有过两个译本,最早是江苏人民出版在2001年出版的,这个版本的翻译非常生硬。后来是中信出版社又出了一版,翻译质量略有提高。第二个版本出的时候,正是国内的互联网创业高潮期,加之国内有一个叫李善友的培训师用特斯拉去硬套克氏经典,并在文字上玩起了游戏,用更有蛊惑意味的“颠覆式创新”去替代“破化式创新”的说法。\n这属于国内以讹传讹的商业文化现象,咱们按下不表。克里斯藤森曾经说,很多人并没有读过《创新者的窘境》,并认为这是误读的根源之一。我相信他的判断是对的。至于为什么很多人没有读过,我想原因有二:\n首先,克氏并不是一个擅于文笔的学者,或者说他不是一个鼓动型作家。美国学者虽然大都有不错的文字表达素养,但有些大师确实就在追求理论表达的一板一眼,有些表达哪怕冗长繁琐,也不能失去精确度。这也给翻译带来了难度。\n其次,《创新者的窘境》这本书所依赖的案例距离我们的时代有些遥远,比如磁盘这个东西,我们1980年初的人倒是亲身经历了磁盘在PC时代的变化直到消亡,但对于85后90后,可能真没啥机会见识磁盘的存在。更别提大型商用机时代的超大磁盘了。书里还有小型钢铁厂逐步抗衡大型钢铁厂,如果你不去商学院专门学习这些案例,可能这辈子都不会了解。\n换言之,这本书的内容并不精彩,也难说吸引人。但话又说回来了,那些吸引人的管理类流行读物又有几本有生命力呢?\n在《创新者的窘境》中,和这个时代最友好的内容应该是第九章(江苏人民出版社版本)的内容,即克氏为电动汽车的破坏式发展布置了一个路线图。检验“破坏式创新”路线图最好的办法莫如特斯拉。这本书写于1997年,特斯拉的诞生是2003年,2013年进入商业化阶段,目前的市值是8078.29亿美元,大于所有传统汽车厂商的市值之和。\n克氏早早预判出了电动车会成为一项破坏式技术(克氏的“技术”是指产品或者服务)。而特斯拉是否真的构成“破坏式创新”直接决定了其未来的命运走向,起码克里斯藤森是这么看的。\n首先要判断,电动车是否可以构成“破坏式创新”技术?这就要看技术改善的趋势和市场需求变化的趋势是否有重叠?并且在重叠之后,技术改善的速度是否能够快于市场需求变化的速度?如果是的话,那么电动车就可以构成“破坏式创新”了。如下图按照当时的电动车研发状况,续航里程、零百加速和最高时速这三大性能指标,电动车都远逊于汽油车。但如果去除掉当地针对性法规政策的限制,三大指标的改善速度会越来越快。\n其次,电动车的发展不构成对主流车商的威胁,换言之,主流车商没有动力去推电动车,因为这不在他们的价值网里面。\n第三,当时的专家认为电动车性能永远无法超越汽油车,克里斯藤森认为专家是错的,理由是一旦电动车自己的价值网确立起来之后,技术发展就会进行延续性发展的轨道,技术只能是越来越超越市场需求。\n千万别听专家的,这是克氏幽默且犀利的地方。\n在确认了电动车可以构成“破坏式创新”之后,就要制定发展策略。\n克氏按照自己理论的思路,认为电动车的市场一定是主流车商的盲区或者是看到了也不愿意去做的那个市场,也就是我们说的“非用户市场”。这个市场对电动车的性能要求低于主流车商提供的市场性能,而对便利性和性价比更在意。\n一旦这个市场找到,并确立了相关的价值网,电动车就开始延续性创新,不断在技术性能上实现飞跃,进而去实现对主流市场的攻击。克氏的这个思路是贯穿了他整个理论体系的,也是他基于挖掘机、复印机、钢铁公司的研究得出的。\n第二步是找到这些对汽车需求在10公里以内的人群,比如接送孩子上下学的家长,比如摩托车市场的天堂东南亚。在这里,克里斯藤森提醒了大家,这是一个创业过程,第一要有不断迭代的意识,第二要有试错心态,第三不要把战略资源放进同一个篮子。\n在产品层面,克里斯藤森也给出了三个原则:\n第一,简单、便捷、可靠。\n第二,没有人知道产品的最终市场在哪里,也就是它的市场未来要有意外的效果。\n第三,一定要足够低价,只有低价才能吸引用户支付溢价。\n“破坏式创新”可以被认为是竞争战略,重要的就是它选择的破坏据点具有足够的隐蔽性,而这个隐蔽性又要和技术改善能力结合到一起。比如电动车从10公里需求以内作为破坏据点,然后慢慢搭建自己的价值网,再利用这个稳固的网络让技术不断进化,最后和主流市场的技术需求产生交叉。\n克里斯藤森也是深谙兵法的人。\n至此,我们了解了克里斯藤森对于电动车作为破坏式创新的蓝图,下面就看看被国内商学院吹爆天的特斯拉到底符不符合克氏的这个图景。\n首先,特斯拉完全违背了低价和低端的破坏据点原则,而是直接选择了高端市场。从早期和莲花生产的Roadster到Model S。动辄7万美元的售价指向的是对传统汽车消费群体中,对性能有更高需求的那部分人。换句话说,特斯拉最开始的主打人群是在延续性创新这条线上的尖端客户。\n其次,一开始就着力于电池技术是克里斯滕森极力反对的,因为他认为这是针对主流市场的延续性创新。因为破坏式创新的消费群体并不存在,所以电池技术首先能满足最低需求即可,同时这也是一种反向策略,看看到底谁更愿意使用低性能电池车,这样的人群或许就是破坏式创新要面对的市场。\n但特斯拉为什么今天可以成功?起码在市值表现上独领风骚,绝处逢生之后创造了一个又一个奇迹。\n显然,特斯拉不符合克里斯藤森关于“破坏式创新”的设想。当然克里斯藤森本人也反对把这个理论作为放之四海而皆准的真理,他认为成功或者失败是无法靠单一理论来解释的。\n我们可以以“破坏式创新”为立足点,用超越这个理论的视角去看:\n首先,我们把特斯拉的发展分为两个阶段,以Model S为界限,分为前特斯拉和后特斯拉。前特斯拉时期,在马斯克入住之后,主要是游说政府拿补贴和引入奔驰、丰田、松下这样的股东提供零部件和提升自己拿政府低息贷款的筹码。这个时期的特斯拉经营并不算好,马斯克一方面要保证产品能做出来,一边在制造明星效应。\n我们可以认为这是特斯拉在选择破坏式据点后应该承受的代价。如果马斯克真的选择了克里斯藤森的路线图,马斯克的英雄色彩会黯淡很多。也可以从另一方面想,克里斯藤森忽略了资本市场的力量。\nModel S横空出世之后,马斯克突然宣布开放全部专利,在现金流紧张的情况下收购太阳城,进而完成了特斯拉、SpacX、太阳城三位一体的生态帝国。这就是马斯克伟大的地方,利用个人超强的vison突破理论格局,画出了新的商业版图。\n理论和实践的一个区别是,理论是结构思维,行动是非结构化行为。特斯拉不符合严格意义上的“破坏式创新”,但马斯克这个人却可以靠理念和行动改变战略节奏。比如,克里斯藤森说你先用低性能技术找到非用户市场,再去利用价值网络进行完善和延续。但马斯克破坏了第一步,他先用技术找到主流高端市场,然后马不停蹄地搭建起了自己的价值网。\n克里斯藤森是研究产业经济的,他的理论带有浓厚的产业色彩,相对静态化。而马斯克作为企业家,他是从资本和品牌切入的,更具有实操性,毕竟资本不会给你流出大把时间。\n特斯拉在逐步完善价值网之后,才推出了真正的杀器Model 3。这可以看作是马斯克向破坏式创新的回归,用持续降低的电池成本和逐渐强大的电动车性能去挤压传统车商的市场。\n我们回过头来看,特斯拉这条路是一条风险巨大的道路。马斯克的伟大不在于火箭上天,而是他身上的企业家精神打破了经典理论的约束。至于国内的蔚来、理想、小鹏之流,不过是在一条马斯克已经开辟的新道路中,做一些完善市场需求的事情,有的可能连延续性创新都称不上。\n聊完特斯拉,咱们再看一个现象级产品,如图所示:\n\n这是一张2020年的中国电动车市场销量图,第一名特斯拉Model 3,第二名是国民神车五菱宏光Mini EV,而第三名和第二名之间的差距就有点天壤之别了。可以说这么说特斯拉和上汽通用五菱几乎主导了整个国内电动车市场,如果说特斯拉是靠长久的市场积累才有了这样的神迹,那么五菱宏光从货运神车到凭借一款超低价电动车再次创造销售奇迹,就问你怕不怕?\n在媒体上,这款Mini EV的声量别说和特斯拉相比,即使跟国内三大新势力都没得比。没有人会去在意这样一款低端到极致的产品,但数字说明了一切。\n我是很偶然关注到这款车的,一次是在抖音,一次是在我们小区里看到了实车。最近几天在路面上看到的更多了一些。带着好奇心去查了五菱宏光Mini EV的一些资料,发现了一个特别有趣的现象,——这个产品走的是一条和特斯拉完完全全相反的路线,也就是一条标准的克里斯藤森式的路线。\n上汽通用五菱在开发Mini EV的时候,首先明确了三点:\n第一,不依赖于补贴模式。他们认为补贴推动的技术路线恰恰与我们潜在的用\n户需求相反。目前的补贴政策实际上是鼓励长续驶里程的,而长续驶里程的电动车很难把成本降下来,在整车能耗上也存在很大的浪费,这反而对电动车的推广不利。这个意思就是说,低价是打开非用户市场的钥匙,而不是在电池技术上做延续性创新。\n第二,不把智能需求作为配置,而是当作汽车整体架构。现在电动汽车的一个大买点就是智能化,每一代新车型都伴随着智能化的提升,就像每一代PC都会伴随着CPU的更新,这往往带来技术需求大于市场需求的情况。在前智能手机时代,RIM可以独领风骚三五年,恰恰就是因为其利用独特的产品架构实现了超长的电池续航能力。从结构而不是配置上去思考问题,一个是可以降低成本,一个是可以提升用户使用的便捷度。\n第三,全新的商业模式,小额高频,比如用泊车APP取代需要花费更多资金安装的泊车辅助系统。当然了,我看资料里这一块还属于设想阶段,还要看未来执行的情况。\n五菱宏光走的是一条严格意义上的以低成本、短里程为破坏据点的破坏式创新之路,它的用户构想和克里斯藤森的构想非常接近,而且严格限制了对电池技术的开发和使用,仅仅满足国家指定的上路历程标准(80公里)即可。\n我在懂车帝上查了一下,MiniEV并没有走高性价比路线,而是提供了一个用户可以承受的最低售价,然后用户可以根据自己的需求进行选装,比如安全气囊、手动空调、遮阳板。这还是一个基于用户成本考虑的销售策略。\n还有一个关键点,那就是充电桩。克里斯藤森曾经说电池的性能在破坏式创新时,并不是首要考虑的问题,原因就在于短途电池会强迫企业去想方设法搭建更有利用户使用的充电桩。而一旦把电池性能放在首位,充电桩问题就不会显得那么挤迫,那你面对的市场很可能又回到了主流用户市场。\n先满足短途用户用车需求,再搭建大家充电桩,再依赖这个网络去实现电池性能的延续创新,这就是克里斯藤森的路径。再看五菱宏光,用慢充取代快充,一个是可以大幅降低用户的费用(慢充的售价连快充的零头都不到),一个是可以继续稳固被发掘出来的新市场,进一步拉开和主流市场的距离。\n当然,这样一来五菱宏光的新价值网络中还有一个重要环节需要被补齐,那就是如何去实现慢充的落地和小范围人群的试用与迭代。五菱宏光搞了一个“柳州模式”,其实就是把当地政府拉进这个价值网,从上至下来推。\n政府力量在充电网络中始终都扮演强角色,早期的Better Place在全球范围内的失败在很大程度上就是因为遭遇了过大的行政阻力。\n至此,我们可以清晰看到一个破坏式创新的图景出现了,在一个此前并不存在的用户市场中,形成了一张独特的价值网。当这个网络运行足够成熟的时候,产品就在破坏式创新的据点慢慢占牢,然后像更大更主流的市场逆袭。\n克里斯藤森生前念念不忘的那个低成本、短里程的电动车市场空间,看来的确是存在的。\n大概在20年前,克里斯藤森在另一本书里写过,通用汽车一直在中国想要寻找一个合作伙伴,打造一个3000美元的产品平台,然后把这个平台再推向自己的高端产品上。事实上,我们从五菱宏光EV上看到了一些这个理念的影子。\n我用“破坏式创新”去解构特斯拉和五菱宏光,意义在哪里?很多人都会问,是不是破坏式创新又有什么用呢?我赢了就可以啊。\n我承认,理论是死的,人是活的。但理论的作用不在于告诉你怎么做,而是要给你一个思考路径,知道你是怎么赢的,又可能将来是怎么输的。理论有局限性,人也有局限性。理论有创造性,人也有创造性。我们需要看到事物和自己的两面。\n克里斯滕森生前说,破坏式创新是个过程,需要时间来证明。而且,有的企业现在不是破坏式创新,不代表将来不会,他对Uber给予了厚望,同样我们也可以对滴滴寄予厚望,比如他们是否可以真的找到现有细分市场中持续降低成本、扩大价格优势的路径。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314936291,"gmtCreate":1612283868413,"gmtModify":1703760012677,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"发现需求,解决方案,单元模型,Benchmark,迭代优化——创业最初的样子。这篇文章回答了(不一定好),Clubhouse 究竟满足了什么需求?与替代品相比如何?未来的商业模式可能是什么?竞争优势又是什么?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMGR\">$Clubhouse Media Group Inc(CMGR)$</a>","listText":"发现需求,解决方案,单元模型,Benchmark,迭代优化——创业最初的样子。这篇文章回答了(不一定好),Clubhouse 究竟满足了什么需求?与替代品相比如何?未来的商业模式可能是什么?竞争优势又是什么?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMGR\">$Clubhouse Media Group Inc(CMGR)$</a>","text":"发现需求,解决方案,单元模型,Benchmark,迭代优化——创业最初的样子。这篇文章回答了(不一定好),Clubhouse 究竟满足了什么需求?与替代品相比如何?未来的商业模式可能是什么?竞争优势又是什么?$Clubhouse Media Group Inc(CMGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314936291","repostId":"1187446815","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310059360,"gmtCreate":1611232386250,"gmtModify":1703749039297,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作为科普看看","listText":"作为科普看看","text":"作为科普看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310059360","repostId":"330206470","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":330206470,"gmtCreate":1608622195984,"gmtModify":1703735776277,"author":{"id":"36989258284800","authorId":"36989258284800","name":"小虎老师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/6e9d88ae16a2b401169a727cf1457404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36989258284800","authorIdStr":"36989258284800"},"themes":[],"title":"【前方高能】史上最全的期权学习视频,让你欲罢不能!","htmlText":"期权被誉为金融衍生品皇冠上的明珠,普通投资者学习起来有一定的难度。但期权可以穿越牛熊市,还能穿越震荡市,可谓什么行情都有盈利的策略。 为此,小虎老师呕心沥血整理了如下期权学习视频,希望对虎友们有帮助哟~ (一)基础入门课: 适合人群:期权小白 【4节课带你入门期权交易】<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&page=/college/course&rndata=%7B%22gid%22%3A%20%22C20201113082648013%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\">点击查看>></a> 课程难度:★★ 主讲人:Micheal,PPT金融创始人。一位专业的全职交易员,前自营交易员,期权做市方向,曾培训过上千位交易新人,力争把交易简单化,给你直截了当的价值分享。 【从零开始学期权】<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&page=/college/course&rndata=%7B%22gid%22%3A%20%22C20201214085647105%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\">点击查看>></a> 课程难度:★★ 主讲人:陈竑廷,毕业于清华大学物理系、台湾大学应用物理所,艾扬软件期权总监、营销总监;多年美股期权交易经验,著书有《期权新世界》。 (二)基础进阶课: 适合人群:有一定期权基础知识,想要进一步提升的用户 【4节课带你进阶期权实战】","listText":"期权被誉为金融衍生品皇冠上的明珠,普通投资者学习起来有一定的难度。但期权可以穿越牛熊市,还能穿越震荡市,可谓什么行情都有盈利的策略。 为此,小虎老师呕心沥血整理了如下期权学习视频,希望对虎友们有帮助哟~ (一)基础入门课: 适合人群:期权小白 【4节课带你入门期权交易】<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&page=/college/course&rndata=%7B%22gid%22%3A%20%22C20201113082648013%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\">点击查看>></a> 课程难度:★★ 主讲人:Micheal,PPT金融创始人。一位专业的全职交易员,前自营交易员,期权做市方向,曾培训过上千位交易新人,力争把交易简单化,给你直截了当的价值分享。 【从零开始学期权】<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&page=/college/course&rndata=%7B%22gid%22%3A%20%22C20201214085647105%22%7D\" target=\"_blank\">点击查看>></a> 课程难度:★★ 主讲人:陈竑廷,毕业于清华大学物理系、台湾大学应用物理所,艾扬软件期权总监、营销总监;多年美股期权交易经验,著书有《期权新世界》。 (二)基础进阶课: 适合人群:有一定期权基础知识,想要进一步提升的用户 【4节课带你进阶期权实战】","text":"期权被誉为金融衍生品皇冠上的明珠,普通投资者学习起来有一定的难度。但期权可以穿越牛熊市,还能穿越震荡市,可谓什么行情都有盈利的策略。 为此,小虎老师呕心沥血整理了如下期权学习视频,希望对虎友们有帮助哟~ (一)基础入门课: 适合人群:期权小白 【4节课带你入门期权交易】点击查看>> 课程难度:★★ 主讲人:Micheal,PPT金融创始人。一位专业的全职交易员,前自营交易员,期权做市方向,曾培训过上千位交易新人,力争把交易简单化,给你直截了当的价值分享。 【从零开始学期权】点击查看>> 课程难度:★★ 主讲人:陈竑廷,毕业于清华大学物理系、台湾大学应用物理所,艾扬软件期权总监、营销总监;多年美股期权交易经验,著书有《期权新世界》。 (二)基础进阶课: 适合人群:有一定期权基础知识,想要进一步提升的用户 【4节课带你进阶期权实战】","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39ad192af1b8585c8a24b1971fb9312a","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330206470","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333893339,"gmtCreate":1609228749121,"gmtModify":1703738285190,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>对于业务护城河提供了一个侧面","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>对于业务护城河提供了一个侧面","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$对于业务护城河提供了一个侧面","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333893339","repostId":"339708070","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":339708070,"gmtCreate":1609065839590,"gmtModify":1703737579577,"author":{"id":"3528067440798020","authorId":"3528067440798020","name":"YOLO道","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9ffc9ce8bdc6bbdf0601cfe562d658","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528067440798020","authorIdStr":"3528067440798020"},"themes":[],"title":"PLTR前途可期","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> 业务内容Palantir Technologies公司开发信息分析的软件,为美国情报部门构建和部署软件平台,协助反恐调查和行动。公司提供的平台包括国防和情报部门的政府特工使用的Palantir Gotham软件平台,该平台使用户能够识别深藏在数据的模型,数据来源包括信号情报来源到机密线人的报告,该平台可以促进分析师和操作用户之间的交接,帮助操作人员计划和执行真实世界的应对措施,以应对平台内已识别的威胁。此外公司还提供Palantir Foundry平台,该平台通过为组织创建一个中央操作系统来改变组织数据的运作方式;并允许个人用户在一个地方整合和分析他们需要的数据。护城河Palantir拥有狭窄的护城河,这主要是基于客户转换成本,其次是通过网络效应和无形资产来加强。尽管Palantir目前缺乏盈利能力,但从长远来看,它将依靠这些护城河资源产生强大的经营杠杆和超额回报。随着企业在内部、私有云、公有云、边缘位置以及人员和设备之间进一步实现不同系统的互连,已经迅速扩散的数据只会加速。数据的爆炸性增长和各种格式的数据管理给组织带来了一个令人困惑的问题。机构在传统数据存储的基础上,产生了大量的数据,但无法从数据中获得意义或洞察力。由于组织通常在各部门之间孤立部署系统的方法,或者各种数据格式和安全协议排除了统一的数据平台,因此可能没有将数据碎片适当地拼接在一起以实现整体视图。企业历史上一直依赖内部开发和咨询支持来解决数据集成的挑战,绝大多数企业都被不成功的结果、超额预算和延迟所困扰。在解决了这些根本问题之后,企业可以寻找隐藏在遗留数据中的观点,以及不断涌入的新数据来获得竞争优势。Palantir销售","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a> 业务内容Palantir Technologies公司开发信息分析的软件,为美国情报部门构建和部署软件平台,协助反恐调查和行动。公司提供的平台包括国防和情报部门的政府特工使用的Palantir Gotham软件平台,该平台使用户能够识别深藏在数据的模型,数据来源包括信号情报来源到机密线人的报告,该平台可以促进分析师和操作用户之间的交接,帮助操作人员计划和执行真实世界的应对措施,以应对平台内已识别的威胁。此外公司还提供Palantir Foundry平台,该平台通过为组织创建一个中央操作系统来改变组织数据的运作方式;并允许个人用户在一个地方整合和分析他们需要的数据。护城河Palantir拥有狭窄的护城河,这主要是基于客户转换成本,其次是通过网络效应和无形资产来加强。尽管Palantir目前缺乏盈利能力,但从长远来看,它将依靠这些护城河资源产生强大的经营杠杆和超额回报。随着企业在内部、私有云、公有云、边缘位置以及人员和设备之间进一步实现不同系统的互连,已经迅速扩散的数据只会加速。数据的爆炸性增长和各种格式的数据管理给组织带来了一个令人困惑的问题。机构在传统数据存储的基础上,产生了大量的数据,但无法从数据中获得意义或洞察力。由于组织通常在各部门之间孤立部署系统的方法,或者各种数据格式和安全协议排除了统一的数据平台,因此可能没有将数据碎片适当地拼接在一起以实现整体视图。企业历史上一直依赖内部开发和咨询支持来解决数据集成的挑战,绝大多数企业都被不成功的结果、超额预算和延迟所困扰。在解决了这些根本问题之后,企业可以寻找隐藏在遗留数据中的观点,以及不断涌入的新数据来获得竞争优势。Palantir销售","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 业务内容Palantir Technologies公司开发信息分析的软件,为美国情报部门构建和部署软件平台,协助反恐调查和行动。公司提供的平台包括国防和情报部门的政府特工使用的Palantir Gotham软件平台,该平台使用户能够识别深藏在数据的模型,数据来源包括信号情报来源到机密线人的报告,该平台可以促进分析师和操作用户之间的交接,帮助操作人员计划和执行真实世界的应对措施,以应对平台内已识别的威胁。此外公司还提供Palantir Foundry平台,该平台通过为组织创建一个中央操作系统来改变组织数据的运作方式;并允许个人用户在一个地方整合和分析他们需要的数据。护城河Palantir拥有狭窄的护城河,这主要是基于客户转换成本,其次是通过网络效应和无形资产来加强。尽管Palantir目前缺乏盈利能力,但从长远来看,它将依靠这些护城河资源产生强大的经营杠杆和超额回报。随着企业在内部、私有云、公有云、边缘位置以及人员和设备之间进一步实现不同系统的互连,已经迅速扩散的数据只会加速。数据的爆炸性增长和各种格式的数据管理给组织带来了一个令人困惑的问题。机构在传统数据存储的基础上,产生了大量的数据,但无法从数据中获得意义或洞察力。由于组织通常在各部门之间孤立部署系统的方法,或者各种数据格式和安全协议排除了统一的数据平台,因此可能没有将数据碎片适当地拼接在一起以实现整体视图。企业历史上一直依赖内部开发和咨询支持来解决数据集成的挑战,绝大多数企业都被不成功的结果、超额预算和延迟所困扰。在解决了这些根本问题之后,企业可以寻找隐藏在遗留数据中的观点,以及不断涌入的新数据来获得竞争优势。Palantir销售","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a6f099cdfe06297189f6ca24334cd9","width":"317","height":"418"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339708070","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330903529,"gmtCreate":1608485510261,"gmtModify":1703735056798,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"李录《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》","listText":"李录《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》","text":"李录《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330903529","repostId":"1114843217","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114843217","pubTimestamp":1608295417,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114843217?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-18 20:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“中国版巴菲特”李录:谈危机、创新、个人与世界","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114843217","media":"经济观察报","summary":"李录和他的这本《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》,是一份有滋有味的营养剂。","content":"<div>\n<p>作者丨程明霞李录的《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》是一本难以归类的书。作为一家书店老板,我可以把这本书和尤瓦尔的《人类简史》放在一起,他们都回顾了人类文明走到今天的历程;也可以把这本书放在中国研究的系列里,比如和金耀基、金观涛的著作放在一起,他们都如此专注、深刻地思考了中国如何融入现代化的问题;或者把这本书放在巴菲特传记、《穷查理宝典》、高瓴资本创始人张磊的《价值》旁边,毕竟作者详尽讲述了他的投资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.eeo.com.cn/2020/1217/446747.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1571105321979","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“中国版巴菲特”李录:谈危机、创新、个人与世界</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“中国版巴菲特”李录:谈危机、创新、个人与世界\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-18 20:43 北京时间 <a href=http://www.eeo.com.cn/2020/1217/446747.shtml><strong>经济观察报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者丨程明霞李录的《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》是一本难以归类的书。作为一家书店老板,我可以把这本书和尤瓦尔的《人类简史》放在一起,他们都回顾了人类文明走到今天的历程;也可以把这本书放在中国研究的系列里,比如和金耀基、金观涛的著作放在一起,他们都如此专注、深刻地思考了中国如何融入现代化的问题;或者把这本书放在巴菲特传记、《穷查理宝典》、高瓴资本创始人张磊的《价值》旁边,毕竟作者详尽讲述了他的投资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.eeo.com.cn/2020/1217/446747.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92bd234fee78d18afa6b1c3d08e80b57","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.eeo.com.cn/2020/1217/446747.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114843217","content_text":"作者丨程明霞李录的《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》是一本难以归类的书。作为一家书店老板,我可以把这本书和尤瓦尔的《人类简史》放在一起,他们都回顾了人类文明走到今天的历程;也可以把这本书放在中国研究的系列里,比如和金耀基、金观涛的著作放在一起,他们都如此专注、深刻地思考了中国如何融入现代化的问题;或者把这本书放在巴菲特传记、《穷查理宝典》、高瓴资本创始人张磊的《价值》旁边,毕竟作者详尽讲述了他的投资理念和投资策略,而且他本人就是中国版的巴菲特或者芒格;把这本书放在我们书店的“创新书籍专架”也很合适,书中对于“创新”的定义十分精彩。但是,我发现把这本书放在以上任何一个地方都有点别扭,因为以上任何一个类别都只能覆盖这本书的一部分内容。还好,归类并不重要。无论是关于人类文明的跃升、中国现代化进程的过往与未来,或者关于复利的含义与真正的长期主义,作者在这本书中谈论的问题、思考的过程、给出的结论,都给了我很大的惊喜和满足。最后,我把这本书放在书店进门处最显耀的书架上,它值得拥有更广泛的读者。与李录先生交谈,和读他的书一样让人觉得舒畅并且解渴。李录拥有一种迅速圈定每一个问题所在坐标系的能力,然后展开开阔、纵深、透彻的阐述,伴随着他对待所有问题的诚实与洞见,还有他轻松、宜人的态度。无论谈到危机与挑战、历史与现实,还是一些分歧与争议,一个多小时的视频访谈中,李录先生爽朗、温暖的笑声贯穿全程。他本人和他的书,都浸透着一种令人放松与信服的乐观主义。2020年让很多人感觉焦虑与挫败。李录和他的这本《文明、现代化、价值投资与中国》,对于眼前这个黑天鹅时代,既是一份有滋有味的营养剂,也是一份抚慰人心的安慰剂。|访谈|问=程明霞(北京由新书店主理人)答=李录(著名投资人,喜马拉雅资本管理公司创始人及董事长)“无人区”的危机与挑战问:让我们从2020年这一年谈起吧。距离今年结束只剩三周了(采访时间为2020年12月11日)。您这一年过得如何?疫情对您的工作和生活有影响吗?有过焦虑的情绪吗?答:总的来说变化不大,还跟之前差不多。(笑)我们办公室也没关,所以我还是每天都在公司。生活和工作都没什么变化。没有疫情的时候,大部分时间我也是在自己的办公室和书房阅读。疫情对我的影响可能只是减少了一两次旅行,仅此而已吧。我之前旅行也不算多,大部分时间都是在办公室和书房,阅读、思考、电话上和人交流。问:2020年毕竟是太特殊、太魔幻了,很多黑天鹅突如其来。中国现在可以说是在“后疫情时代”,美国和欧洲还在应对疫情。您这本书中的文章都是写在2020年之前的,2020年这一年下来,是否让您之前一直思考的问题有所变化?如果思考的问题没有变,答案有变化吗?答:这个倒是没有。(笑)我在书中谈论的问题是以万年为单位的,是关于现代性的。这些问题我已经思考了三四十年,时间跨度非常长,所以我的问题和答案都没有变化。当然当下很多具体的经济问题会跟疫情有关系,但是我书中思考的问题基本上是万年才有的变化。问:对,您的书在一个特别长的历史尺度中,对人类文明包括中国的发展前景给出了非常乐观的判断,也很有说服力。可今年以来,除了疫情,还有中美脱钩、中国开始强调“内循环”以及美股几次熔断等,各种前所未有的事情发生,包括刚刚尘埃落定的,拜登将是下一任美国总统,后续的发展会如何?答:这方面的变化相对比较大。在特朗普任内后期,双方的冲突已经到了冷战甚至于热战的前沿,再发展下去确实有可能让冲突进一步升级。“拜登时代”我的总体预测是,双方会在比较理性的范围之内管控分歧。当然,双方的分歧和矛盾在这个阶段一直会比较尖锐,双方之间的关系确实是越来越复杂,越来越危险,这个大的情况不会改变。但是,“拜登时代”和“特朗普时代”最大的不同,就是引发极端情况或者冷战的可能性,我觉得在拜登时代会小很多。而特朗普因为他本人的原因,确实管控不良的话,双方交流和理解如果不够充分,矛盾就可能会激化。历史有些时候就是由偶然因素引起的,连带导致一系列的连锁反应。这常常并不是由个人或是一方意志来决定的。其实一战就是这样的情况。问:经济层面呢?答:经济层面确实和之前不太一样。目前经济面临的情况是,供给端和需求端同时剧烈地下降,各个国家的应对之策都是同时大量地印钞。但是实体经济的有效需求非常的低,多印出来的钞票很多进入资本市场,造成股市上涨。股市上涨,并不是因为公司的利润在增加,最主要的原因是钱的成本在急速下降。这种情况实际上也是一种通货膨胀,是金融资产的通货膨胀,不是实体经济的通货膨胀。货币成本的下降,也不是因为经济在持续向好,而是在经济持续向坏的基础上发生的。这些情况,确实是前所未有的状态。当经济开始回升,通货膨胀自然开始回来的时候,我们的利率是随着通货膨胀往上走的,但人为地把它控制在很低的水平,形成了实质上的“负利率”。这个情况没有人预料到,各个国家的中央银行也没有成型的一致的共识和看法,大家都在看对方的政策。所以我们确实处在一个前人没有到过的地方,驶入了“无人区”。宏观层面怎么做,现在确实很难说。另一方面,目前各国的经济确实已经牢牢绑在一起。中国虽然强调“内循环”,但是并不否认“外循环”,两个系统都在。其实所有大的经济体都是这两个系统同时存在的。过去很多年,中国对“外循环”的依赖度比较高,最高的时候经济对外依存度一度达到2/3左右,今天大概处在1/3,已经少了很多,但在所有大的经济体中,仍然是比较高的一个。美国经济的对外依存度大概在1/5左右。中国的经济发展现在已经开始进入到了内驱的、自然增长驱动的阶段。所谓的“内循环”,实际上就是内需驱动的经济增长时代,这是一个很自然的事情,和过去的“闭关锁国”是不一样的。大家没有必要过度解读,也没必要过度担心。“外循环”意味着中国经济是在全球经济的整体发展之下发展自己的特色,这就使得我们的科技水平和全世界的前沿科技水平一直保持着一个动态的关系,这个非常重要。我在书里面也强调,新的3.0文明体系一个很重要的特点,就是最大的市场最终会变成唯一的市场。这个唯一的市场中演化出来的科技水平是效率最高的,一旦脱离开这个最大的市场,时间足够长以后,你的科技水平就会慢慢地往下降。所以说,中国保持内外两个循环系统同时存在是至关重要的。但是从重要性、比重上讲,中国的“内循环”经济会越来越大。今天中国的对外依存度仍然很高,但对于像这样一个大的经济体来说,随着它自然发展,对外依存度就会逐渐降低。目前我们正是处在这样一个过程中。问:刚才我们谈到,全球经济都处于一个实质上的“负利率时代”,大家对此都没有经验,全球经济又是紧密依存的,会有金融危机的风险吗?答:当然会有。全球都处在这样一个“无人区”,因为历史上从来没有出现过大规模的负利率,历史上也没有过一国的纸币能被全球都接受,全球的经济在同一个市场运行,这些情况在历史上都从未出现过。所以我们今天确实遇到了很多历史上从没有遇到过的境况,这样的境况下,出现危机、出现难以预料的事情,这是题中之义,完全可以预见到一定会发生的。但这并不等于我们毫无办法,还是有办法应对的。其实,每一个国家单独的货币和财政行为、企业家的个人行为,都会影响到其他的国家,尤其是前沿国家,所以说“外循环”很重要。我们必须要考虑国际市场的金融动向和潜在的危机,因为这些会高度影响到中国,中国所有的政策也会高度影响到全球各国的经济体系、金融体系。我们今天实际是处在一个经济上大体完成了贸易的全球化,金融上部分的全球化,技术上部分的全球化,但是在治理体系上,各国几乎都还停留在过去的民族国家的时代,这导致全球的金融政策、财政政策只有沟通,没有协同。这是一个非常不稳定、天然不稳定的状态。对待这种状态,可以有不同的态度。比如说我们撤回到原来去,我们闭关,这是一种态度;我们建一堵墙,然后就不联系了。但是这种做法肯定行不通,时间一长,我们在各个方面都会落后下去。另一种态度,我们也可以全方位地去拥抱某一个领袖,带领大家一起走。确实有过这样的岁月。但是今天的美国无论是体量,还是在重要问题上的领导地位,基本上都已经不再具备这样的条件,所以这个方法也不太行。所以现在大家不仅要保持沟通,而且沟通要更加紧密。关于一些政策的推行,要更加清楚地理解彼此政策对于别人的影响,也就是所谓的“外部性”,在制定自己的政策时,要相对比较审慎。问:如果金融危机的风险要靠全球政府的宏观经济部门的协同和审慎决策的话,听起来还挺让人绝望的。这种情况对商业世界的影响呢?答:宏观层面确实比较复杂,但微观层面的局面刚好相反。微观层面,目前在前沿国家,创新的速度和创新的范围,都处在一个极端繁荣的状态,非常繁荣。彼此的交流如果没有政治因素,也是非常通畅。我们在贸易上已经形成了全球市场;在金融上已经大部分形成了全球市场;在科技上,尤其在科学领域本来就是一个比较完整的全球市场;而在技术上,在中美这一段冲突之前,其实也是一个全球市场。所以微观层面的景象和宏观刚好相反,我们看到各国的创新都是方兴未艾。但是创新对于不同阶层、不同国家、不同人群造成了非常不同的结果。对各国的科技和金融精英而言,成倍的利益都堆在了他们头上,但是对于成熟国家的中产阶级、发展中国家的底层而言,就没有得到应得的利益,有些人原本的利益还受到了极大的伤害和冲击。如果我们有一个“全球政府”,这些就可以在政治层面解决,通过二次分配等。因为世界的发展是通过熊彼特所说的“破坏性创新”来实现的,必然既有创造,也有破坏,相加得到净创造。政治的存在就在于应该让那些成为社会进步成本的人们,得到一定的支持,获得足够强的社会保险体系、安全网络。同时,那些社会进步中的弄潮儿,也不要得到的过多,不要过于失衡。政治上可以用各种方式,比如二次分配等,让社会变得更加和谐。因为驱动人类社会的仍然是“自由”“平等”这两个基本的本能,这是永远都不变的。当这种平衡发生变化,“创造性破坏”的进程就会受到极大的冲击,到最后所有人都会受损。目前我们并没有一个“全球政府”,也就没有全球的治理体系,所以我们无法把创造和破坏带来的不均衡的后果,做相对均衡地分配。这就造成我们在微观层面看到,一方面是持续的繁荣、持续的创新;另一方面是社会极度的动荡,而且越来越动荡。对于政治层面原来已经不完善的全球治理体系,也造成了巨大的冲击。特朗普之所以存在,不全是代表他个人,作为一个现象,他背后有7300多万的人在支持他,这是很说明问题的。(笑)问:您看我们已经聊到了两个巨大的危机:一个是经济层面的全球性金融风险的危机;另一个就是社会层面的,财富失衡导致的巨大的社会不平等。最后的解决方案,好像都要寄望于宏观层面、全球政府的治理能力?这会让人有无力感。答:人类的进步总是在克服困难、克服挑战的过程中发生的,有挑战并不等于这个世界未来不会变得更好。(笑)这些问题其实也不是不可以解决的。尤其是如果大国之间能够有更多的谅解、更多的合作,这些问题就会解决得更好一些。各个国家其实都在用自己的方式,在部分地尝试去解决这些问题,这些问题会逐渐得到一些缓解。这个过程当中,危机注定会不断地发生。就是因为我们今天的这种治理挑战在历史上从来没有过,遇到的问题以前也从来没有过,所以出现危机是一个必然的现象。文明与文化:方向一致,步调不同问:听起来目前整个世界的状况是,微观层面的创新热气腾腾,宏观层面的治理乏善可陈。这让我想起您在书中说,市场经济和科举制,是人类历史上最伟大的发明,帮助人类文明实现跃升的是一些伟大的制度创新。那么应对目前这么多挑战,是不是制度、治理层面的创新,要比其他类型的创新更迫切、更高级一些?答:还不能这么说。这是两个不同层次的问题。如果说我在这本书里有一个洞见的话,那就是我回答了,在过去300年,到底整个人类发生了什么变化?这个变化对人类未来几千年意味着什么?我认为,这300年的变化完全可以和人类在过去几万年间发生的两次真正大的变化相比。人类大概也就20万年左右的历史,其实只发生了三次真正的大变化。第一次大变化是人类祖先五六万年前离开赤道附近,花了大概3万年左右的时间,基本上遍布了全球。在那一次的跃升之后,人类从狭小的地区性的物种变成一个全球物种。第二次巨大的变化就是约1万年前,在某些地区发现了可以被种植的植物和被驯养的动物,出现了农业。这一次跃升让人类变成了一个可以利用自然、改变自然,来谋取生存的这样一个物种。这一次的变化又给人类文明创造了一次巨大的跃升。第三次就是过去300年发生的变化,使得人类发生了又一次万年级别的文明跃升。我在这里把文明和文化分开来定义,文明指的是像人和动物之间那么大的区别,而文化是人和人之间以及不同的种族、族群和不同民族之间的差别。这一次最大的变化是什么?我们发现了科学,发明了技术,发现了整个地球的自然体系是如何构造的,然后用这些知识加上一种新的制度安排,让我们获取能量的能力一年一年累进式地进步。如此的复利性增长,结果就是让人类成为了一个拥有无限可能性的物种。对于这次开始于300年前的跃升期而言,我们现在刚刚处在早期,后面可能甚至还有几千年。但具有里程碑意义的是,从这次跃升之初开始,人类就变成了一个具备无限可能性的物种。在这个情况下,我们才可以谈文明的跃升和文化有什么关系。我觉得人身上大概有三种东西,动物性、人性和神性。这是我个人的观察,未必准确。(笑)我觉得人大约有六七成的动物性,三分人性,半分神性。动物性指的是什么?比如说我们每天都吃饭,这肯定是动物性。但是当我们吃饭的时候开始讲究不同的做法,讲究美食,也讲究色香味俱全,这就是文化,也就是人性的部分。而当我们把食物拿去祭祀,就是神性的部分。再比如说我们的先天智力,这是我们的动物性,动物就会聪明地顺应自然做一些基本调整。但是我们发明的教育制度、学习的方法,就是人性的部分。当我们受过教育以后,去祈祷、去思考上帝,这就是我们神性的部分。文明的跃升主要是谈论人类和我们动物祖先之间的差距。而谈到文化,是我们人性的部分,我们怎么组织在一起,把个人的创造力和集体的创造力结合在一起,让我们和其他动物的距离越来越远,文明程度越来越高。在这个层面上我们谈的是文化,谈的是人的本性中动物性、人性、神性之间如何相互作用,形成我们独特的生活方式、价值观念、信仰及社会组织形式。但是我们也要应对六七分的动物性。应对动物性的时候,我们因为散居在世界不同的地方,用不同的方式组织,有不同的历史,有不同的大人物出现,先后顺序也不一样,就造成了不同的文化。人们用不同的方式组织在一起,有不同的约定,就形成了不同的制度。这和我们刚才谈的文明的三次大的跃升是不同层面的问题。但是在文化层面的创新也非常非常的重要,文化基本上决定了当新的文明方式出现的时候,这一群人进入和适应一种新文明的速度和方式,和他们的文化习惯高度相关,所以文化很重要。不同的文化会用不同的方式去适应新的文明。将来非洲也会进入现代化,这完全没有疑问。今天看非洲很多地区会很绝望,其实没必要,他们也会用自己的方式实现现代化,会有自己的节奏。100多年前,大家都认为中国的文化无法融入现代化,除非基因改造,否则肯定不行的。今天再看就不是这样了。不同的文化只是用不同的节奏、不同的方式进入现代化。所谓制度的差别,就是有些制度更适合新的生产方式,核心动力还是新的文明出现之后如何去适应,不同的文化会用不同的制度、不同的节奏、不同的时间段去适应。所以我们其实用了150多年用各种各样的方式去反复试错。40年前,终于真正发现了这次文明跃升的本质是现代科技加上市场经济。这个配方找到了之后,我们的发展速度就变得空前的快。今天虽然还没有完成,但是中国完成现代化,进入到科技文明状态,几乎是肯定的事情,不是if而是when,不过是什么时间完成而已。问:如果创新的类型没有高低,回到微观层面,可以对比一下中美创新的特点吗?这方面讨论也挺多的,主流观点是说中国公司更偏向商业模式和服务层面的创新,硅谷更多地贡献了硬核技术的创新。答:技术的创新其实是在科学发展的前沿开创的,科学发展的方向、基础和水平决定了技术创新的方向。因为美国在基础科学方面全方位地领先全世界,使得它的创新的方向也是全方位的。我们在基础科学方面处于全方位落后的状态,但在应用方面有市场优势。所以我们的创新集中在那些在技术上不算落后,同时市场上有巨大优势的地方,结果看起来就是我们在消费互联网等方面学得很快、创新也很快。但是当我们的基础科学在前面铺垫好以后,其他方面自然而然会跟上。比如说生物研究,如果有足够的技术,新药也自然而然就会出现。对航天、物理学的研究有重大的突破,这个方面的技术也会出现。这是很自然的。如果说,中美创新有差异,那就是我们积累的时间不够长,基础科学确实是比较薄弱,在短时间难以迅速弥补。还是需要下定决心,比较有耐心地慢慢地去补上短板。慢富与暴富问:说到硅谷,我们看到硅谷不仅创造了新的技术和产品,也创造了新的财富观。您和巴菲特、芒格,都在说复利,你们的财富增长是一个“慢富”的过程,清教徒式的财富观。但是硅谷这些年创造了高中生都可以通过一款软件一夜暴富的故事。您如何看待这种新的创造财富的方式?跟您的财富观冲突吗?答:这和这一阶段的科技的本质有关系,和其他的都没有什么关系。因为这一阶段互联网科技的底层逻辑,让一款产品可以在非常短的时间内迅速获得天文数字的增长。这在以前从来没有过,但是它依托的其实是整个社会的基础设施。互联网的出现需要很多基础科学,在美国出现也是它的自然。互联网最开始是被当作社会的公用事业(publicutility)的,是不收费的(nocharge)。后来的很多应用其实都属于搭便车。所以其中相当一部分财富本来就应该回馈给社会。但是现阶段还是会不断出现暴富的现象,以后会回归到更合理的状态。因为造就这种财富其实是所有人共同的参与,比如说我们把自己的数据都给了平台公司,平台公司用属于个人权利的数据发财,所以当然应该回馈给更多人。他们的税率不仅不应该低,而且应该高出其他公司很多倍。而现在的情况正好是这样的公司反而税率最低。这是暂时的现象,不会是长期的现象,是这个阶段的技术特性决定的。问:这种暴富方式造成的矛盾已经开始浮现了,但是处理的方式看起来又比较粗暴,比如拆分互联网巨头的呼声很高。答:税收的方式可能更好一些。但这也只是一种思路,可以有很多种思路。我并不是这方面专家,我也并不想在这方面说更多。但是,这个问题早晚还是可以解决的,不是不可解决的问题。问:这个问题似乎也是更需要治理层面的智慧去解决。答:最终还是要回归到可持续,所谓可持续就是每个人得到的应该是他应得的,这才是可持续的。凡是得到的不是应得的,或者大家都觉得不太公平的,最终还是会改变的。如何改变、怎么改变,这不是我个人研究的范围,我就不去多发言了。问:说到这里,想起前段时间马斯克说,巴菲特并没有为社会创造新东西,只是用钱赚钱而已。他把企业家和金融家分成了两类人,您怎么看?答:巴菲特和芒格在1965年接手伯克希尔的时候,市值不到2000万美金,在此后的50多年里面,他们没有通过增发在公开市场上筹一分钱。今天公司的市值是5000亿至6000亿美金,而公司总部包括巴菲特、芒格在内,只有不过20多个人。在这些年里面,尽管为股东创造了如此巨大的价值,他们两个人每年的工资就是10万美金,50多年没变过。马斯克也为他的公司创造了价值,他的股权薪酬是500亿美金,公司也不断在资本市场筹资。伯克希尔50多年的时间,从2000万美金增值到五六千亿美金,没有在资本市场筹一分钱,这些价值是从什么地方来的?当然是他们创造出来的。所以这样的争论没什么太大的意义。(笑)问:人们对于企业家和创业者的社会角色确实是比较清晰和认同的,比如创新、提供好产品和服务、增加就业等。您对于投资家的社会角色怎么看?我们都知道,巴菲特是大投资家也是大慈善家。投资家跟企业家的社会角色有区别吗?答:我觉得不能泛泛而谈。从我个人来讲,我不想买的东西我肯定不会去卖,所以我总是从共赢的角度思考所有问题,绝对不会用屁股决定脑袋这样的思考方式进行商业决策。如果我要去和别人达成一项生意,只有当我们买方和卖方互换位置,可以欣然接受相同的条件,这样的生意我们才会去做。如果大家都持着这种共赢的方式来做事情,社会就会更加和谐。深度思考是一种科学思考的方式问:您在这本书中展现出的思考的深度和广度,让人印象很深。具备独立思考、深度思考的能力并不容易,您觉得这种能力是怎么“炼”成的?通过自我阅读与思考,还是通过良好的、正确的教育?答:其实最主要的还是思维方法。人类新一次文明的跃升出现了大概300年,但是人类的进步大概已经持续了500年左右。我们在学习能力上最重大的发现,就是发现了科学学习知识的方法,这是一个重大的突破。现代科学给我们最大的启示,就是可以通过假设、实验、证实和证否,不断创建、不断修正原有的理论,然后建立新的假设、重新实验……这是一套累进式学习、持续进步的体系,是一种让人类不断接近真知的方法,这就属于科学学习的方法。马斯克说的有一点我是很认同的,就是他强调“第一性原理”,实际上就是科学思维的方法。跟我的看法差不多,就是用发现科学的方法来积累知识。我的思维跟别人的思维没有区别,唯一的区别就是我把科学思维的方法用在所有方面。我们不难发现,很多在专业范围内用科学思维思考的科学家,一旦离开了专业范围,就开始用另一套方式来思考问题,所以形不成真知的积累。(笑)如果你坚持用科学的思维方法来思考生活中所有的问题,你会惊讶地发现自己的知识在持续、累进地进步。这是我个人最大的乐趣。问:如果如您所说,独立思考和深度思考的本质是一种持续的科学思维的方式,是不是意味着这种能力可以教、可以学?答:当然是可以的。其实教育是能实现这些的。教育最重要的使命是让人们能够学到正确学习的方法,也就是科学思考的方法。如果用科学的思考方法,你会发现自己实际上是在正确的道路上用正确的方法在持续地进步,最后做到知识的累进进步。这种乐趣就是求真的乐趣。问:但是无论中国还是美国,各自的教育体系都被批判,尤瓦尔也说,面对人类未来的智能社会,现在的学校教育基本毫无用处。按照您的观点,只要坚持科学思考的方式,就不用太过于担心人类未来的挑战?答:我个人经历过中国的教育制度,也经历过美国的教育制度,两方各有所长。中国的教育对绝大多数人仍然是非常有用的,会让你以比较确定的方式获得最基础的知识,尤其是专业知识。美国的教育是会让那些真正的精英能够在已经取得的成就下,持续不断地去创造新的事物,推动人类前沿的发展。但是在基础教育上,尤其是在让绝大部分普通人获得最基础的知识和技能方面,美国的教育体系不如中国。并不是所有人都可以在科技前沿去推动人类发展,但是所有的人都应该获得基本的技能和知识,这两者并不矛盾,应该因材施教。问:从您书里对1.0文明到3.0文明的梳理,到对于中国未来30年发展的判断,我们能看到您在一个非常大的时空尺度里做思考和推理。我想知道您是否也跟进当下的一些热点问题,身在美国,您观察中国的方式主要靠什么?比如,2亿老年人不会刷二维码、快递小哥困在系统里,这些话题您会关注吗?答:会关注。(笑)问:比特币呢?弗格森说,疫情之后,比特币是最好的避险资产。答:我都有兴趣,但并不是我对所有的问题都有真正的洞见。至少我可以足够明白地说,你说的这些我不懂。我知道自己可以懂到说不懂。(笑)其实明白自己不懂,也要懂到一定程度。最坏就是不懂装懂。(笑)问:我印象很深,芒格讲过一个故事,有位女士请他用一个词形容自己,他想了半天说,理性。我也能从您身上看到很多标签。但是如果让您定义自己,一到三个词的话,会是什么?答:其实从年轻到现在,一直有两件东西是我内在最大的动力:一个是持续地进步,一个是对世界有所帮助。这两件事对我来说最重要。持续地进步,就是在大体正确的方向上,用大体正确的方法,持续不断地努力,最后获得累进进步的成果。这个进步是全方位的,无论是知识、能力,也包括对世界的认识、对真知的追求,对公司的打造。这种态度一直是我基本的信仰。问:方式是什么?怎么做到?答:各种方式吧。你总是希望能够在晚上睡觉的时候想一想,是不是比早晨醒来的时候更好了一点点。(笑)第二个,我希望我无论做什么事情,都能够对别人、对世界有所帮助。无论做什么事,我都希望它不仅仅只为自己好,而是对别人也有所帮助。能做到这一点,就会给我带来很多很多的喜悦和幸福。问:书里那篇《五十述怀》的文章,您说后半生特别希望多致力于中美之间交流。目前看来这个必要性越来越大了。我想知道,您具体会做些什么样的事情去实现这点呢?答:其实我做很多的事情,但是还不能说已经找到了最好的方法。我还是用同样的办法,就是持续性地改进、持续地进步,慢慢就会有结果吧。只要有心思、愿意去做,那就持续地去努力,总会找到更有效的方法。我确实希望在这个方向能做一些事情。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395419535,"gmtCreate":1607705402727,"gmtModify":1703849656432,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TwillioCPaaS领袖,API的鼻祖,大体量之下收入扩张速度不减,CAGR保持40%以上,DBNER保持130%+,值得关注。","listText":"TwillioCPaaS领袖,API的鼻祖,大体量之下收入扩张速度不减,CAGR保持40%以上,DBNER保持130%+,值得关注。","text":"TwillioCPaaS领袖,API的鼻祖,大体量之下收入扩张速度不减,CAGR保持40%以上,DBNER保持130%+,值得关注。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395419535","repostId":"2080954463","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2080954463","pubTimestamp":1604388259,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2080954463?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-03 15:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Twilio or Bandwidth: Which Cloud Stock Is Poised For Better Growth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2080954463","media":"SmarterAnalyst","summary":"Accelerated digitization due to the pandemic has boosted the prospects of cloud companies. As per ID","content":"<html><body>\n<p>Accelerated digitization due to the pandemic has boosted the prospects of cloud companies. As per IDC, global spending on cloud services, the hardware and software components supporting cloud services, and the professional and managed services opportunities related to cloud services will cross $1.0 trillion in 2024, while sustaining a double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.7%.</p>\n\n\n<p>CPaaS or Communications Platform as a Service providers like Twilio and Bandwidth are also experiencing higher demand for their services amid COVID-19. Developers and companies use the APIs (application programming interface) of Twilio and Bandwidth to embed communication features such as voice, video and message in their apps to engage with their customers.</p>\n\n\n<p>We will discuss the recent performance of Twilio and Bandwidth and use the TipRanks Stock Comparison tool to place these CPaaS providers alongside each other and see which stock offers a more compelling investment opportunity.</p>\n\n\n<figure>\n<img src=\"https://s1.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/w7XsxoTjYG8CKKnl_cK6AQ--/cT03NTthcHBpZD15dmlkZW9mZWVkczs-/https://media.zenfs.com/en-US/smarteranalyst_347/aa8ae055eeb35112fd498fe03e3c5791\"/>\n</figure>\n\n\n<p><strong>Twilio (</strong><strong>TWLO</strong><strong>)</strong></p>\n\n\n<p>Twilio is considered a pioneer in the CPaaS market and is a leader in the cloud-based communications services space. The company has been strengthening its position over the years by expanding its portfolio of innovative solutions organically as well as through strategic acquisitions. It’s 2019 acquisition of e-mail API platform SendGrid considerably boosted its revenue.</p>\n\n\n<p>On Nov. 2, Twilio completed the acquisition of Segment, a customer data platform. The company believes that the addition of Segment to its platform will provide businesses actionable insights that will help enhance customer engagement.</p>\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the pandemic has accelerated Twilio’s growth. Recently, the company reported strong 3Q results with its revenue increasing 52% Y/Y to $448 million. Robust demand for its platform drove a 33.3% rise in adjusted EPS to $0.04, crushing analysts’ estimate of a loss per share of $0.03. The company ended the quarter with over 208,000 active customer accounts, reflecting a 21% Y/Y growth. Also, Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate, a key metric that indicates revenue from existing customers, surged 137%.</p>\n\n\n<p>Coming to 4Q guidance, Twilio expects revenue to grow in the range of 36%-37% to $450 million-$455 million. It predicts 4Q adjusted loss per share between $0.08 and $0.11 compared to EPS of $0.04 in 4Q19. The company’s 4Q revenue guidance exceeded analysts’ expectations but the earnings outlook lagged analysts' forecast of an EPS of $0.01. (See TWLO stock analysis on TipRanks)</p>\n\n\n<p>Nonetheless, Twilio sees significant growth opportunities and estimates that its addressable market could grow from $62 billion in 2020 to $87 billion in 2023. The company expects a 30% organic revenue growth for the next four years.</p>\n\n\n<p>Recently, the company launched the Twilio Flex ecosystem, which allows customers to access over 30 validated solutions from partners like Google, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>, Zendesk, and Calabrio to accelerate their contact center projects. It also launched Twilio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRO\">Frontline</a> — a mobile application that allows field workers to seamlessly engage directly with customers from their personal devices. And, keeping in mind the spike in demand for Twilio Video and to reach more developers, the company introduced Twilio Video WebRTC Go, a free version of Twilio Video for peer to peer use.</p>\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, in reaction to the 3Q earnings release, Rosenblatt Securities analyst Ryan Koontz reiterated a Buy rating for Twilio with a $375 price target, saying “TWLO is a terrific story as the global leading supplier of CpaaS with the most advanced products and channels in its segment.”</p>\n\n\n<p>“Consistent strong sales execution supports our confidence in near-term revenue estimates but increasing competitive threats could limit expected gross margin expansion.”</p>\n\n\n<p>The Street echoes Koontz’s bullish stance with a Strong Buy analyst consensus based on 19 Buys versus 3 Holds. With shares already advancing by an impressive 178% so far in 2020, the $355 average analyst price target reflects an upside potential of about 30% in the coming months.</p>\n\n\n<figure>\n<img src=\"https://s1.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/_k9uUwv17TNWEICGVqdB3w--/cT03NTthcHBpZD15dmlkZW9mZWVkczs-/https://media.zenfs.com/en-US/smarteranalyst_347/fdca8c45711efeda010910a46af59acc\"/>\n</figure>\n\n\n<p><strong>Bandwidth (</strong><strong>BAND</strong><strong>)</strong></p>\n\n\n<p>Bandwidth is experiencing robust demand for its cloud-based communications platform amid the pandemic. The company’s revenue grew 35% in the first nine months of 2020 compared to a 14% growth in the entire 2019. Bandwidth has its own nationwide IP voice network, which it believes gives it a significant competitive advantage in the control, quality, pricing and scalability of its offerings compared to its peers.</p>\n\n\n<p>On Nov. 2, Bandwidth acquired Voxbone, an international enterprise cloud communications provider, for €446 million (about $519.4 million). The company believes that this acquisition will accelerate its international expansion by several years and will combine its extensive US presence with Voxbone’s world-wide platform across more than 60 countries.</p>\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Bandwidth’s 3Q revenue grew 40% to $84.8 million with CPaaS revenue rising 43% to $73.8 million. The company attributed 7% of CPaaS revenue growth to elevated messaging volumes due to the US elections and 5% growth to COVID-related dynamics especially the favorable impact of remote working. The company delivered an adjusted EPS of $0.24 in 3Q20 compared to an adjusted loss per share of $0.06 in 3Q19.</p>\n\n\n<p>It ended 3Q with 2,015 active CPaaS customers, implying a 25% Y/Y growth. Also, the dollar-based net retention rate was 131% in 3Q reflecting the expansion of the company's existing customer relationships.</p>\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, the company expects 2020 revenue (including the impact of Voxbone acquisition) between $326.6 million to $327.1 million compared to $232.6 million in 2019. It predicts adjusted EPS between $0.44 and $0.46 in 2020 compared to an adjusted loss per share of $0.23 in 2019.</p>\n\n\n<p>Following the earnings release, Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley reiterated a Buy rating and a $225 price target, saying “We believe revenue growth should remain strong given our expectations for some permanent long-term changes with an increased remote work environment driving both increasing usage from existing customers and layering in the potential for stronger new customer growth.”</p>\n\n\n<p>“Add to this increasing traffic in international markets, an accretive Voxbone acquisition to drive international growth, a small but fast-growing messaging business, and a large new cohort of customers onboarded with strong trends in 2020, and there are several reasons we are optimistic about growth and believe our updated estimates could prove conservative.” (See BAND stock analysis on TipRanks)</p>\n\n\n<p>The Street is cautiously optimistic about Bandwidth stock. A Moderate Buy consensus is based on 4 Buys versus 1 Sell. Shares have risen a whopping 146.8% year-to-date and the average analyst price target of $192.20 implies further upside potential of 21.8% lies ahead.</p>\n\n\n<figure>\n<img src=\"https://s1.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/AdLxnW7qMfG4NBf.UoVNGw--/cT03NTthcHBpZD15dmlkZW9mZWVkczs-/https://media.zenfs.com/en-US/smarteranalyst_347/f27b4530c3c84dbfb4375d7750784c62\"/>\n</figure>\n\n\n<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>\n\n\n<p>Both Twilio and Bandwidth are well-positioned to benefit from the rapid transition of businesses to Cloud. However, Twilio currently appears to be a better investment as reflected in the Street’s more bullish stance and higher upside potential compared to Bandwidth.</p>\n\n\n<p>To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.</p>\n\n\n<p><em>Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment</em></p>\n\n<h4>More recent articles from Smarter Analyst:</h4>\n<ul>\n<li> TFF Teams Up With Augmenta For Covid-19 Antibody Therapies; Shares Pop 7% </li>\n<li> Cirrus Jumps 8.4% On 2Q Profit Win, New CEO Appointment </li>\n<li> AMC Sinks 8.5% On $47.7M Equity Offering; Street Sees 80% Upside </li>\n<li> Nutrien Sinking 4% Despite Earnings Beat On Strong Potash Sales </li>\n</ul></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twilio or Bandwidth: Which Cloud Stock Is Poised For Better Growth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwilio or Bandwidth: Which Cloud Stock Is Poised For Better Growth?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-03 15:24 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twilio-bandwidth-cloud-stock-poised-072419017.html><strong>SmarterAnalyst</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Accelerated digitization due to the pandemic has boosted the prospects of cloud companies. As per IDC, global spending on cloud services, the hardware and software components supporting cloud services...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twilio-bandwidth-cloud-stock-poised-072419017.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/yUtlLhSRDmYuS3dfIbXEiQ--~B/aD00OTQ7dz05NDg7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/vXMLHp5oFFZ5EZJcYH7ImQ--~B/aD00OTQ7dz05NDg7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://media.zenfs.com/en-US/smarteranalyst_347/aa8ae055eeb35112fd498fe03e3c5791","relate_stocks":{"BAND":"Bandwidth Inc.","TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twilio-bandwidth-cloud-stock-poised-072419017.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2080954463","content_text":"Accelerated digitization due to the pandemic has boosted the prospects of cloud companies. As per IDC, global spending on cloud services, the hardware and software components supporting cloud services, and the professional and managed services opportunities related to cloud services will cross $1.0 trillion in 2024, while sustaining a double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.7%.\nCPaaS or Communications Platform as a Service providers like Twilio and Bandwidth are also experiencing higher demand for their services amid COVID-19. Developers and companies use the APIs (application programming interface) of Twilio and Bandwidth to embed communication features such as voice, video and message in their apps to engage with their customers.\nWe will discuss the recent performance of Twilio and Bandwidth and use the TipRanks Stock Comparison tool to place these CPaaS providers alongside each other and see which stock offers a more compelling investment opportunity.\n\n\n\nTwilio (TWLO)\nTwilio is considered a pioneer in the CPaaS market and is a leader in the cloud-based communications services space. The company has been strengthening its position over the years by expanding its portfolio of innovative solutions organically as well as through strategic acquisitions. It’s 2019 acquisition of e-mail API platform SendGrid considerably boosted its revenue.\nOn Nov. 2, Twilio completed the acquisition of Segment, a customer data platform. The company believes that the addition of Segment to its platform will provide businesses actionable insights that will help enhance customer engagement.\nMeanwhile, the pandemic has accelerated Twilio’s growth. Recently, the company reported strong 3Q results with its revenue increasing 52% Y/Y to $448 million. Robust demand for its platform drove a 33.3% rise in adjusted EPS to $0.04, crushing analysts’ estimate of a loss per share of $0.03. The company ended the quarter with over 208,000 active customer accounts, reflecting a 21% Y/Y growth. Also, Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate, a key metric that indicates revenue from existing customers, surged 137%.\nComing to 4Q guidance, Twilio expects revenue to grow in the range of 36%-37% to $450 million-$455 million. It predicts 4Q adjusted loss per share between $0.08 and $0.11 compared to EPS of $0.04 in 4Q19. The company’s 4Q revenue guidance exceeded analysts’ expectations but the earnings outlook lagged analysts' forecast of an EPS of $0.01. (See TWLO stock analysis on TipRanks)\nNonetheless, Twilio sees significant growth opportunities and estimates that its addressable market could grow from $62 billion in 2020 to $87 billion in 2023. The company expects a 30% organic revenue growth for the next four years.\nRecently, the company launched the Twilio Flex ecosystem, which allows customers to access over 30 validated solutions from partners like Google, Salesforce, Zendesk, and Calabrio to accelerate their contact center projects. It also launched Twilio Frontline — a mobile application that allows field workers to seamlessly engage directly with customers from their personal devices. And, keeping in mind the spike in demand for Twilio Video and to reach more developers, the company introduced Twilio Video WebRTC Go, a free version of Twilio Video for peer to peer use.\nMeanwhile, in reaction to the 3Q earnings release, Rosenblatt Securities analyst Ryan Koontz reiterated a Buy rating for Twilio with a $375 price target, saying “TWLO is a terrific story as the global leading supplier of CpaaS with the most advanced products and channels in its segment.”\n“Consistent strong sales execution supports our confidence in near-term revenue estimates but increasing competitive threats could limit expected gross margin expansion.”\nThe Street echoes Koontz’s bullish stance with a Strong Buy analyst consensus based on 19 Buys versus 3 Holds. With shares already advancing by an impressive 178% so far in 2020, the $355 average analyst price target reflects an upside potential of about 30% in the coming months.\n\n\n\nBandwidth (BAND)\nBandwidth is experiencing robust demand for its cloud-based communications platform amid the pandemic. The company’s revenue grew 35% in the first nine months of 2020 compared to a 14% growth in the entire 2019. Bandwidth has its own nationwide IP voice network, which it believes gives it a significant competitive advantage in the control, quality, pricing and scalability of its offerings compared to its peers.\nOn Nov. 2, Bandwidth acquired Voxbone, an international enterprise cloud communications provider, for €446 million (about $519.4 million). The company believes that this acquisition will accelerate its international expansion by several years and will combine its extensive US presence with Voxbone’s world-wide platform across more than 60 countries.\nMeanwhile, Bandwidth’s 3Q revenue grew 40% to $84.8 million with CPaaS revenue rising 43% to $73.8 million. The company attributed 7% of CPaaS revenue growth to elevated messaging volumes due to the US elections and 5% growth to COVID-related dynamics especially the favorable impact of remote working. The company delivered an adjusted EPS of $0.24 in 3Q20 compared to an adjusted loss per share of $0.06 in 3Q19.\nIt ended 3Q with 2,015 active CPaaS customers, implying a 25% Y/Y growth. Also, the dollar-based net retention rate was 131% in 3Q reflecting the expansion of the company's existing customer relationships.\nLooking ahead, the company expects 2020 revenue (including the impact of Voxbone acquisition) between $326.6 million to $327.1 million compared to $232.6 million in 2019. It predicts adjusted EPS between $0.44 and $0.46 in 2020 compared to an adjusted loss per share of $0.23 in 2019.\nFollowing the earnings release, Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley reiterated a Buy rating and a $225 price target, saying “We believe revenue growth should remain strong given our expectations for some permanent long-term changes with an increased remote work environment driving both increasing usage from existing customers and layering in the potential for stronger new customer growth.”\n“Add to this increasing traffic in international markets, an accretive Voxbone acquisition to drive international growth, a small but fast-growing messaging business, and a large new cohort of customers onboarded with strong trends in 2020, and there are several reasons we are optimistic about growth and believe our updated estimates could prove conservative.” (See BAND stock analysis on TipRanks)\nThe Street is cautiously optimistic about Bandwidth stock. A Moderate Buy consensus is based on 4 Buys versus 1 Sell. Shares have risen a whopping 146.8% year-to-date and the average analyst price target of $192.20 implies further upside potential of 21.8% lies ahead.\n\n\n\nConclusion\nBoth Twilio and Bandwidth are well-positioned to benefit from the rapid transition of businesses to Cloud. However, Twilio currently appears to be a better investment as reflected in the Street’s more bullish stance and higher upside potential compared to Bandwidth.\nTo find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.\nDisclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment\nMore recent articles from Smarter Analyst:\n\n TFF Teams Up With Augmenta For Covid-19 Antibody Therapies; Shares Pop 7% \n Cirrus Jumps 8.4% On 2Q Profit Win, New CEO Appointment \n AMC Sinks 8.5% On $47.7M Equity Offering; Street Sees 80% Upside \n Nutrien Sinking 4% Despite Earnings Beat On Strong Potash Sales","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396438517,"gmtCreate":1607249904339,"gmtModify":1703846879045,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396438517","repostId":"2072783033","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2072783033","pubTimestamp":1601670974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2072783033?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-03 04:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Play On Axsome Therapeutics","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2072783033","media":"Bret Jensen","summary":"Today, we revisit Axsome Therapeutics for an in-depth analysis.Axsome was an original member of the Busted IPO Forum model portfolio and the best performing biotech stock of 2019.However, the shares are down 30% in 2020. A quick investment case for Axsome is presented in the paragraphs below.","content":"<html><body><div><div><div><div>Summary</div><div><p>Today, we revisit Axsome Therapeutics for an in-depth analysis.</p><p>Axsome was an original member of the Busted IPO Forum model portfolio and the best performing biotech stock of 2019.</p><p>However, the shares are down 30% in 2020. A quick investment case for Axsome is presented in the paragraphs below.</p></div></div></div><div><blockquote><p><em>Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it</em>.\"― Laurence J. Peter, The Peter Principle</p></blockquote> <p>Today, we revisit <strong>Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM).</strong> This name was an original member of the Busted IPO Forum model portfolio and the best performing biotech stock in the market in 2019 with better than a 3,000% return. It has been a much tougher slog for the shares in 2020. A full investment analysis follows below.</p> <h2>Company Overview</h2> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/1/saupload_Sev54KCf.png\"/></p> <p>Axsome Therapeutics is a late stage developmental company based in New York City that is focused on developmental numerous compounds to treat various Central Nervous System {CNS) conditions. The stock has declined some 30% so far in 2020, and now has an approximate market capitalization of $2.7 billion</p> <p><strong>Pipeline</strong></p> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/347/55347/slides/6.jpg?1588939524\"/></p> <p><em>Source: Company Presentation</em></p> <p>The company has multiple 'shots on goal' and upcoming potential catalysts on the horizon. Axsome should file a new drug application in the fourth quarter of this year for its lead drug candidate AXS-05, for the treatment of major depressive disorder, after several successful trial studies. The latest <strong>data</strong> was posted in September. This should be the first of many potentially lucrative FDA approvals (see above) for this compound, as well as others Axsome has in its late stage pipeline.</p>\n<div></div> <p>In early August, another compound 'AXS-12' was Axsome's third drug candidate to receive a Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA. This <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> for the treatment of cataplexy in patients with narcolepsy. After meeting with the government agency, Axsome <strong>stated</strong> it was pursuing an accelerated development plan for AXS-12 ten days ago.</p> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static2.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/347/55347/slides/5.jpg?1588939524\"/></p> <p><em>Source: Company Presentation</em></p> <p>In mid-August, the company <strong>completed</strong> a successful pre-New Drug Application [NDA] meeting with the FDA for AXS-07 for the acute treatment of migraine. Axsome has <strong>confirmed</strong> pivotal development status and plan for AXS-05 in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease [AD] agitation following a successful Breakthrough Therapy meeting with the FDA. The company posted positive late stage <strong>trial results</strong> for this indication last week.</p> <h2>Analyst Commentary & Balance Sheet</h2> <p>Since late last year, 10 analyst firms, including Cowen & Co. and Piper Sandler, have assigned or reissued Buy ratings on the stock. Price targets proffered have ranged from $115 to $210. Over the past month, Morgan Stanley ($102 price target), H.C. Wainwright ($210 price target) and William Blair have reissued Buy ratings on Axsome. BAML seems to be the lone holdout in the analyst community on the stock, <strong>initiating</strong> the stock as a Sell earlier in the week.</p> <p>Axsome ended its latest quarter with just under $200 million in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet. The company is burning approximately $20 million to $25 million of cash per quarter and is well funded into 2022. At end of September, the company entered into a $225 million <strong>debt facility</strong> with Hercules Capital. The agreement calls for '<em>$60 million that may be drawn at closing; $115 million at the company's option, in three separate tranches; additional $50 million is subject to Hercules's approval, to support future strategic initiatives</em>'. The company is now beyond well-funded for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<div></div> <h2>Verdict</h2> <p>The company has several potentially lucrative compounds in late stage development. The stock enjoys strong analyst support and should be bolstered by upcoming potential catalysts. Axsome has the necessary cash runway to get to commercial launch but probably will raise some additional funding after getting through key milestones like FDA approval.</p> <p>The stock looks undervalued compared to the potential peak sales of its late-stage assets after its recent pullback. The options on the equity are both lucrative and liquid, making it a good <strong>covered call candidate</strong> and that is the way I am playing this name within my own portfolio, utilizing just out of the money long dated option strikes.</p> <blockquote><p><em>Stupidity isn't punishable by death. If it was, there would be a heck of a population drop</em>.\"― Laurell K. Hamilton, The Laughing Corpse</p></blockquote> <p><em>Bret Jensen is the Founder of and authors articles for the Biotech Forum, Busted IPO Forum, and Insiders Forum</em></p>\n<span></span><span marketing_unit=\"LiveChatCoveredCalls\"><p>Live Chat on <strong>The Biotech Forum</strong> has been dominated by discussion of lucrative buy-write or covered call opportunities on selected biotech stocks over the past several months. To see what I and the other season biotech investors are targeting as trading ideas real-time, just join our community at <strong>The Biotech Forum</strong> by clicking <strong>HERE</strong>. </p></span><p><b>Disclosure:</b> <span>I am/we are long AXSM.</span> <span>I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.</span></p></div><div><div></div><span><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"5.799999713897705 7.799999237060547 20.30000114440918 16.39999771118164\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M26.1 9.7c-.7.3-1.5.6-2.4.7.9-.5 1.5-1.3 1.8-2.3-.8.5-1.7.8-2.6 1-.8-.8-1.8-1.3-3-1.3-2.3 0-4.1 1.9-4.1 4.1 0 .3 0 .6.1.9-3.4-.2-6.5-1.8-8.5-4.3-.4.7-.7 1.4-.7 2.1 0 1.4.7 2.7 1.8 3.4-.7 0-1.3-.2-1.9-.5v.1c0 2 1.4 3.7 3.3 4.1-.3.1-.7.1-1.1.1-.3 0-.5 0-.8-.1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.9 2.9-1.4 1.1-3.2 1.8-5.1 1.8-.3 0-.7 0-1-.1 1.8 1.2 4 1.9 6.4 1.9 7.6 0 11.8-6.3 11.8-11.8v-.5c.8-.6 1.5-1.3 2.1-2.2zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"18\" viewbox=\"11.000001907348633 6.799999713897705 9.999998092651367 18.600000381469727\" width=\"10\"><path d=\"M20.6 6.8h-2.4c-2.7 0-4.4 1.8-4.4 4.6v2.1h-2.4c-.2 0-.4.2-.4.4v3c0 .2.2.4.4.4h2.4V25c0 .2.2.4.4.4h3.1c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-7.7h2.8c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-3c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1-.2-.1-.3-.1h-2.8v-1.8c0-.9.2-1.3 1.3-1.3h1.6c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4V7.1c0-.2-.2-.3-.4-.3zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"6.200000286102295 6.699999809265137 19.5 18.700000762939453\" width=\"14\"><path d=\"M25.7 18.2v7.2h-4.2v-6.7c0-1.7-.6-2.8-2.1-2.8-1.2 0-1.8.8-2.1 1.5-.1.3-.1.6-.1 1v7H13s.1-11.4 0-12.6h4.2v1.8c.6-.9 1.5-2.1 3.8-2.1 2.7 0 4.7 1.8 4.7 5.7zM8.6 6.7c-1.4 0-2.4.9-2.4 2.2 0 1.2.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.5 0 2.4-1 2.4-2.2 0-1.2-.8-2.2-2.3-2.2zM6.5 25.4h4.2V12.8H6.5v12.6zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"4.5 6.499999523162842 22.900001525878906 18.999998092651367\" width=\"18\"><path d=\"M20.9 16.9c.1.2.1.3.1.5 0 .3-.1.6-.3.9-.2.2-.4.4-.7.5-.1 0-.3.1-.4.1-.3 0-.7-.1-.9-.3-.3-.2-.5-.5-.5-.8v-.3c0-.3.1-.6.3-.8.2-.2.4-.4.7-.5.2-.1.3-.1.5-.1.3 0 .6.1.8.3.1 0 .3.2.4.5zm-.9 3.7c-.1-.1-.3-.1-.4-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-1 .6-2.2.9-3.4.9-.9 0-1.8-.2-2.6-.6-.1 0-.3-.2-.4-.3-.1 0-.2-.1-.2-.1-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-.1.1-.2.1-.3.3-.1.1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .1 0 .2.1.4.1.1.1.2.3.3 1.1.8 2.5 1.1 3.8 1.1 1.2 0 2.4-.3 3.5-.8.1-.1.3-.2.5-.3.1-.1.2-.1.3-.2.1-.1.1-.2.2-.3v-.2c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3l-.3-.3zm-8-1.9c.2.1.3.1.5.1.4 0 .7-.2 1-.4.3-.2.5-.6.5-1v-.1c0-.4-.2-.7-.5-1-.3-.2-.6-.4-1-.4h-.3c-.5.1-.9.5-1.1 1 0 .1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .3.1.6.3.9.2.3.4.4.7.5zm15.4-3.6v.2c0 .6-.2 1.1-.5 1.5-.3.4-.7.8-1.1 1v.7c0 1.2-.4 2.4-1.1 3.3-1.3 1.8-3.4 2.8-5.4 3.3-1.1.3-2.2.4-3.4.4-1.7 0-3.4-.3-4.9-.9-1.6-.7-3.2-1.7-4.1-3.3-.5-.8-.8-1.8-.8-2.8v-.7c-.4-.2-.8-.6-1.1-1-.3-.4-.5-1-.5-1.5 0-.8.3-1.5.8-2s1.2-.9 2-.9h.2c.4 0 .8.1 1.1.2.3.1.6.3.9.5.1 0 .2-.1.3-.1 1.7-1 3.6-1.4 5.4-1.5 0-.9.1-1.9.6-2.7.4-.7 1-1.3 1.8-1.4.3-.1.6-.1.9-.1.8 0 1.6.2 2.3.5.3-.5.8-.9 1.3-1.1.3-.1.7-.2 1-.2.4 0 .7.1 1.1.2.5.2.9.5 1.2 1 .4.4.6.9.6 1.5v.3c-.1.7-.4 1.3-.9 1.7-.5.4-1.1.7-1.8.7H23c-.6 0-1.3-.4-1.7-.8-.4-.5-.7-1.1-.7-1.8v-.1c-.6-.3-1.3-.5-1.9-.5h-.3c-.5 0-.9.4-1.1.8-.3.6-.4 1.4-.4 2.1 1.8.1 3.7.6 5.3 1.5 0 0 .1 0 .1.1.1-.1.2-.2.4-.3.5-.3 1.1-.5 1.7-.5.3 0 .5 0 .8.1.6.2 1.1.5 1.5 1 .4.4.7 1 .7 1.6zm-5.4-6s0 .1 0 0c0 .4.2.7.4.9.2.2.5.4.8.4h.1c.3 0 .6-.1.9-.4.2-.2.4-.5.4-.8v-.1c0-.3-.2-.6-.4-.9-.2-.2-.6-.4-.9-.4H23c-.3.1-.5.2-.7.4-.2.4-.3.6-.3.9zm-13.6 5c-.2-.1-.5-.2-.8-.2h-.1c-.4 0-.7.2-1 .4-.3.3-.5.6-.5 1v.1c0 .2.1.5.2.7.1.2.2.3.3.4.5-1 1.2-1.8 1.9-2.4zm16.1 4.5c0-.8-.3-1.7-.8-2.3-1-1.3-2.4-2.2-4-2.7-.3-.1-.6-.2-.9-.2-.9-.3-1.9-.4-2.8-.4-1.2 0-2.5.2-3.7.6-1.5.5-3 1.4-4 2.7-.5.7-.8 1.5-.8 2.3 0 .3 0 .6.1.9.2.7.5 1.3 1 1.8.4.5 1 1 1.6 1.3.1.1.3.2.4.2 1.7.9 3.6 1.3 5.4 1.3h1c1.9-.2 3.8-.7 5.4-1.9.5-.4.9-.8 1.3-1.3s.6-1.1.7-1.7c0-.2.1-.4.1-.6zm1.5-3.3c0-.2 0-.4-.1-.6-.1-.3-.3-.5-.6-.6-.3-.1-.6-.2-.8-.2-.3 0-.5.1-.8.2.8.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.4.1-.1.3-.3.3-.4.1-.3.2-.6.2-.8zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"10\" viewbox=\"4.699999809265137 8.300000190734863 22.599998474121094 15.40000057220459\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M4.7 8.3v2.5L16 17l11.3-6.1V8.3H4.7zm0 3.7v11.7h22.6V12L16 18.1 4.7 12z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"87.43199920654297 227.56399536132812 422.6809997558594 382.7259826660156\" width=\"20\"><g><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><path d=\"M87.432,332.244v193.283h85.424v84.763h251.855v-84.763h85.402V332.244H87.432z M383.309,568.021H214.237 v-105.67h169.072V568.021z M464.543,418.101h-42.929v-42.929h42.929V418.101z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></g></g><rect fill=\"#FFFFFF\" height=\"84.536\" width=\"253.609\" x=\"175.93\" y=\"227.564\"></rect></g></svg></span></div></div></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Play On Axsome Therapeutics</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Play On Axsome Therapeutics\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-03 04:36 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377404-play-on-axsome-therapeutics><strong>Bret Jensen</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryToday, we revisit Axsome Therapeutics for an in-depth analysis.Axsome was an original member of the Busted IPO Forum model portfolio and the best performing biotech stock of 2019.However, the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377404-play-on-axsome-therapeutics\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AXSM":"Axsome Therapeutics, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377404-play-on-axsome-therapeutics","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2072783033","content_text":"SummaryToday, we revisit Axsome Therapeutics for an in-depth analysis.Axsome was an original member of the Busted IPO Forum model portfolio and the best performing biotech stock of 2019.However, the shares are down 30% in 2020. A quick investment case for Axsome is presented in the paragraphs below.Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.\"― Laurence J. Peter, The Peter Principle Today, we revisit Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM). This name was an original member of the Busted IPO Forum model portfolio and the best performing biotech stock in the market in 2019 with better than a 3,000% return. It has been a much tougher slog for the shares in 2020. A full investment analysis follows below. Company Overview Axsome Therapeutics is a late stage developmental company based in New York City that is focused on developmental numerous compounds to treat various Central Nervous System {CNS) conditions. The stock has declined some 30% so far in 2020, and now has an approximate market capitalization of $2.7 billion Pipeline Source: Company Presentation The company has multiple 'shots on goal' and upcoming potential catalysts on the horizon. Axsome should file a new drug application in the fourth quarter of this year for its lead drug candidate AXS-05, for the treatment of major depressive disorder, after several successful trial studies. The latest data was posted in September. This should be the first of many potentially lucrative FDA approvals (see above) for this compound, as well as others Axsome has in its late stage pipeline.\n In early August, another compound 'AXS-12' was Axsome's third drug candidate to receive a Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA. This one for the treatment of cataplexy in patients with narcolepsy. After meeting with the government agency, Axsome stated it was pursuing an accelerated development plan for AXS-12 ten days ago. Source: Company Presentation In mid-August, the company completed a successful pre-New Drug Application [NDA] meeting with the FDA for AXS-07 for the acute treatment of migraine. Axsome has confirmed pivotal development status and plan for AXS-05 in the treatment of Alzheimer's disease [AD] agitation following a successful Breakthrough Therapy meeting with the FDA. The company posted positive late stage trial results for this indication last week. Analyst Commentary & Balance Sheet Since late last year, 10 analyst firms, including Cowen & Co. and Piper Sandler, have assigned or reissued Buy ratings on the stock. Price targets proffered have ranged from $115 to $210. Over the past month, Morgan Stanley ($102 price target), H.C. Wainwright ($210 price target) and William Blair have reissued Buy ratings on Axsome. BAML seems to be the lone holdout in the analyst community on the stock, initiating the stock as a Sell earlier in the week. Axsome ended its latest quarter with just under $200 million in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet. The company is burning approximately $20 million to $25 million of cash per quarter and is well funded into 2022. At end of September, the company entered into a $225 million debt facility with Hercules Capital. The agreement calls for '$60 million that may be drawn at closing; $115 million at the company's option, in three separate tranches; additional $50 million is subject to Hercules's approval, to support future strategic initiatives'. The company is now beyond well-funded for the foreseeable future.\n Verdict The company has several potentially lucrative compounds in late stage development. The stock enjoys strong analyst support and should be bolstered by upcoming potential catalysts. Axsome has the necessary cash runway to get to commercial launch but probably will raise some additional funding after getting through key milestones like FDA approval. The stock looks undervalued compared to the potential peak sales of its late-stage assets after its recent pullback. The options on the equity are both lucrative and liquid, making it a good covered call candidate and that is the way I am playing this name within my own portfolio, utilizing just out of the money long dated option strikes. Stupidity isn't punishable by death. If it was, there would be a heck of a population drop.\"― Laurell K. Hamilton, The Laughing Corpse Bret Jensen is the Founder of and authors articles for the Biotech Forum, Busted IPO Forum, and Insiders Forum\nLive Chat on The Biotech Forum has been dominated by discussion of lucrative buy-write or covered call opportunities on selected biotech stocks over the past several months. To see what I and the other season biotech investors are targeting as trading ideas real-time, just join our community at The Biotech Forum by clicking HERE. Disclosure: I am/we are long AXSM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396431588,"gmtCreate":1607249227944,"gmtModify":1703846877663,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"关于AXSM公司财务情况和主要pipeline研发情况。以及AXS-05的估值","listText":"关于AXSM公司财务情况和主要pipeline研发情况。以及AXS-05的估值","text":"关于AXSM公司财务情况和主要pipeline研发情况。以及AXS-05的估值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396431588","repostId":"2072085648","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"content":"AXS-05针对症:major depressive disorder and Alzheimer's disease agitation","text":"AXS-05针对症:major depressive disorder and Alzheimer's disease agitation","html":"AXS-05针对症:major depressive disorder and Alzheimer's disease agitation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396560372,"gmtCreate":1607179836796,"gmtModify":1703846778514,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"从S-1文件中的解析。初学者教科书一般的详细,值得品味。Palantir在商业很多领域的拓展刚刚开始,鉴于其技术深度领先地位和行业需求深度非“即插即用”可满足,有持续领跑的潜力,需求持续增长刚刚开始,未来收入增长率,利润率有进一步扩展可能。风险之一:无法产生规模经济。如果Gotham和Foundry向新客户的部署证明比预期的更耗费劳力,那么Palantir将开始作为一个IT咨询/系统集成商而不是一个软件公司而受到重视。即Scaling的风险,scaling决定了估值的定义和价值乘数","listText":"从S-1文件中的解析。初学者教科书一般的详细,值得品味。Palantir在商业很多领域的拓展刚刚开始,鉴于其技术深度领先地位和行业需求深度非“即插即用”可满足,有持续领跑的潜力,需求持续增长刚刚开始,未来收入增长率,利润率有进一步扩展可能。风险之一:无法产生规模经济。如果Gotham和Foundry向新客户的部署证明比预期的更耗费劳力,那么Palantir将开始作为一个IT咨询/系统集成商而不是一个软件公司而受到重视。即Scaling的风险,scaling决定了估值的定义和价值乘数","text":"从S-1文件中的解析。初学者教科书一般的详细,值得品味。Palantir在商业很多领域的拓展刚刚开始,鉴于其技术深度领先地位和行业需求深度非“即插即用”可满足,有持续领跑的潜力,需求持续增长刚刚开始,未来收入增长率,利润率有进一步扩展可能。风险之一:无法产生规模经济。如果Gotham和Foundry向新客户的部署证明比预期的更耗费劳力,那么Palantir将开始作为一个IT咨询/系统集成商而不是一个软件公司而受到重视。即Scaling的风险,scaling决定了估值的定义和价值乘数","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396560372","repostId":"2069189701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2069189701","pubTimestamp":1600798641,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2069189701?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-23 02:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bullish On Palantir As It Is Just Beginning To Monetize Its Platforms","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2069189701","media":"Invest To Retire","summary":"Palantir is a play on big data integration and analysis with a long growth runway ahead as multiple new industries and government agencies are just beginning to use its platforms.More advanced capabilities (at the expense of not being a ‘plug-and-play’ platform) should drive market share gains in the long-run, as data becomes larger and more complex.Revenue growth is accelerating as customers enter the monetization phase of a long sales cycle, and contribution margins have shown exponential improvement in recent quarters.US$1.2bn net cash balance sheet should be able to fund operations internally until EBIT break-even in 2023.Target price of US$12 per share based on a 15x 2021 Price-to-Sales (P/S) multiple. Discounted Cash Flow model indicates US$19 per share possible if Palantir executes well.","content":"<html><body><div><div><div><div>Summary</div><div><p>Palantir is a play on big data integration and analysis with a long growth runway ahead as multiple new industries and government agencies are just beginning to use its platforms.</p><p>More advanced capabilities (at the expense of not being a ‘plug-and-play’ platform) should drive market share gains in the long-run, as data becomes larger and more complex.</p><p>Revenue growth is accelerating as customers enter the monetization phase of a long sales cycle, and contribution margins have shown exponential improvement in recent quarters.</p><p>US$1.2bn net cash balance sheet should be able to fund operations internally until EBIT break-even in 2023.</p><p>Target price of US$12 per share based on a 15x 2021 Price-to-Sales (P/S) multiple. Discounted Cash Flow model indicates US$19 per share possible if Palantir executes well.</p></div></div></div><div><h2><strong>The Offering</strong></h2> <p>Palantir (PLTR) is undertaking a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange, and is expected to trade on 29 September 2020. Hence, this is not a traditional IPO with a primary share offering or an offering price. We will only get a sense of market value on the 29th of September. Palantir will have three share classes - Class A, Class B and Class F (for Founder) - and the Class A shares are the ones that will be traded in the secondary market. The difference in share classes relates only to a difference in voting power, with Class A being given <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> vote per share; Class B given ten votes per share; and the unique Class F having a variable voting power that ensures founders retain up to 49.999999% of voting power. In other words, this ensures founders retain major voting power over the company. Roughly 80.5% of shares, options, and restricted stock will be bound by lock-up agreements, which mostly expire on the third trading day after the release of the FY2020 full-year results (so probably some time in Feb 2021). The remaining 19.5% will be freely tradable on listing day.</p> <h2><strong>What does Palantir do, and how does it stack up against the competition?</strong></h2> <p>In layman's terms, Palantir creates big data solutions for companies and governments by combining existing internal and external sources of data and merging them into a more intuitive platform that helps i) users visualize this data better; ii) discover links between information that were previously not obvious (sometimes using AI to help with this); and iii) keep the database up to date across the organization as the data evolves. Palatir has two core products - Gotham and Foundry - which are broadly similar in purpose but used primarily by the Government and Commercial sectors respectively. In the company's earlier years they were a hybrid IT consulting/Software company, where their IT engineers spent a lot of time 'on the ground' with companies in order to figure out what was really needed and how to build this into the products being offered. But the IPO filing makes it clear that they are now positioning themselves more as a Software company (given higher valuations in the Software sector of course), and the early days of IT engineers spending a lot of time 'on the ground' is now paying off in terms of the R&D knowledge garnered from that, which enables the products to be launched at scale now.</p>\n<div></div> <p>To be honest, I found trying to understand what Palantir really does and how it stands out against competing products quite perplexing. In Palantir's S-1 filing, they took great care to quote a myriad of case studies in which Palantir was deployed effectively (mapping 5 million Airbus A350 parts; analyzing genomic data; consolidating and connecting the relationships within information relating to terrorists or insurgents). They also give examples of the functionality of various applications within the Gotham and Foundry products (e.g. Gotham's Graph; Gaia; Dossier; Table…), which initially struck me as just being Microsoft Office on steroids. But what is the real value add here, given the wide availability of analytics platforms out there? Is it Palantir's cutting-edge AI system that parses through big data to generate insights that is the value-add? (It supposedly aided in tracking down Bin Laden) Is it simply a better version of Microsoft Office that will gain market share?</p> <p>After combing through the S-1 filing and watching the investor day presentation, the conclusion I have come to is that the real value add Palantir is bringing to the table is Data Integration ability. They have created a product that is somehow able to take all the legacy datasets and systems that government agencies and companies use, and merge them onto a single platform that combines them into a unified source of truth for users. This is the real value-add: the breaking up of legacy information silos, and Palantir claims to be able to do this better than competitors.</p> <p>I think the paragraph below best summarizes the value-add that Palantir brings to the table:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>\"We believe that the integration and joining of different datasets is what matters most. Data integration also happens to be among the hardest problems to solve.</em></p> <p><em>We spent years investing in the development of a platform that makes the task of integrating new datasets routine so that users can focus on taking action on information.\"</em></p> </blockquote> <p>Having said that, I do feel that the products being offered by competitors like Alteryx and Tableau are very similar. They all have the same functions: data ingestion, data visualization, data exploration… and so on. The goal of these products is also the same: to make data user-friendly and to extract maximum insight from available data. As I read through the websites and filings of some of these companies, I tried to understand if there was something that made Palantir stand out as a disruptor in the space. I couldn't find an obvious answer. And to me, if it is so difficult to find the answer to the question 'why is Palantir a disruptive technology?' then the likely answer is that it simply isn't.</p>\n<div></div> <p>Of course, there are product-specific pros and cons, but my sense is Palantir is not a game-changer that is going to make all these other companies go bankrupt. What Palantir is, is a top-tier competitor with a solid product that will compete with other data science platforms out there. Palantir seems to a more heavy-duty type of platform; they refer to themselves as an 'Operating System' rather than a software or application in their S-1 filing. The platform is not as simple as plug-and-play, which results in a longer sales cycle than what you may see with other software, but it also seems to have greater functionality and ability to manipulate data than competitors. Customers who choose Palantir must commit time and effort to integrate the platform into their organization to the point it becomes like an 'Operating System', and so the adoption of Palantir will likely face internal inertia, but the rewards can be great. I think this is one reason why Palantir's customer concentration is on the high side, with three unnamed customers accounting for >10% of revenue each within some annual or semi-annual time periods over the last 2.5years, and Palantir having only 125 customers in total as of 1H20.</p> <p>Overall, I feel that Palantir being a heavy-duty 'Operating System' rather than a plug-and-play software will work in its favor in the longer-run, as we are only just on the cusp of the explosion in data globally. As data becomes more complex, a more advanced platform like Palantir could just be what the world needs.</p> <h2><strong>Total Addressable Market</strong></h2> <p>That the key nature of Palantir's value-add (data integration) is broad-based is important because this opens up a sizeable Total Addressable Market (or TAM) for Palantir. According to their S-1 filing, Palantir estimates their TAM to be US$119bn across the government and commercial sectors (this number includes the TAM from the governments of US allies). This is compared to US$742.6m in revenue in 2019, representing just 0.6% of the annual TAM. These TAMs should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but the rationale behind the derivation of it (talked about in the investor day video) seems reasonable, so I'll run with this for now.</p>\n<div></div> <h2><strong>Still in early stages of growth</strong></h2> <p>Palantir was founded in 2003 and started off as a company focused on building intelligence software for the US Government to aid their counterterrorism efforts. Only later did it begin expanding into other government organizations and commercial organizations. You can see from the timeline below that Palantir's cross-industry expansion has only really taken off in the last 5 years or so, as they realized that the nature of data problems faced by governments and commercial companies across various industries were very similar, which the Gotham and Foundry platforms were equipped to address. There is a long growth runway ahead, as Palantir makes inroads into various new industries.</p> <p><img height=\"539\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/9/21/51650284-16007422738146596.jpg\" width=\"417\"/></p> <p>Source: Palantir S-1 filing</p> <h2><strong>A dive into Palantir's Financials: operating leverage shines through</strong></h2> <p>The first thing to point out is that Palantir's revenue growth is actually accelerating, not decelerating (unlike most growth companies). Total revenues in 2019 were up 24.7% y-o-y but in 1H20 revenues were up 49.1% y-o-y. And this is despite COVID-19, which has reduced face-time between Palantir's software engineers and its customers. In my view this is not a one-off window-dressing event, but rather it is the nature of Palantir's business model wherein customer spending rises exponentially as they mature in terms of time spent integrating Palantir into the organization (explained more in a subsequent paragraph). Given that Palantir is still in the early stages of breaking into multiple industries in the Commercial sector, I think this dynamic will continue to drive acceleration in revenues in the near-to-medium term.</p> <p>We have also seen operating and net margins improve significantly as revenues grow, reflecting the operating leverage inherent in the business of selling software. Diving a bit deeper into the details, while the reported 1H20 costs are a bit understated as there were significant travel cost savings totaling c.US$31.6m (according to the S-1 filing) in 1H20, even adjusting for this, Palantir's operating margin has improved to -41.8% in 1H20, compared to -88.3% in 1H19 and -69.4% in 2H19. If this trend continues, I think it's possible that we see positive operating margins by late-2022.</p>\n<div></div> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/9/21/51650284-16007425717719421.png\"/></p> <p>Source: Palantir S-1 filing</p> <p>Palantir also reports what it calls Contribution Margin, which is defined as \"revenue less our cost of revenue and sales and marketing expenses, excluding stock-based compensation, divided by revenue\". I don't find this metric particularly meaningful, given that it excludes important and significant expenses namely Research & Development, General & Administrative, and Stock-Based Compensation costs which were 32%/34%/33% as a percentage of revenues in 2019 respectively. On stock-based compensation, many companies choose non-GAAP measures that exclude this expense as it is non-cash, but given the dilution to shareholders down the road from exercise of stock warrants, this is a very real expense in my view, and excluding it makes little sense.</p> <p>Nonetheless, despite the flaws of the metric, because Palantir has disclosed its Contribution Margin in terms of quarters since 1Q19 (whereas for other financial metrics only Annual/Semi-Annuals are disclosed), it is useful in getting an even better sense of the trends in margins. In this respect, the numbers tell a positive story, with contribution margins rising sharply and consistently every quarter, from 15% in 3Q19 to 55% in 2Q20 as customers reach a more mature stage.</p> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/9/21/51650284-16007426423605702.png\"/></p> <p>Source: Palantir S-1 filing</p> <p>Indeed, we can derive more color on this from Palantir's S-1 filing where they detail their 'land and expand' strategy. Basically, customers are classified into three buckets called 'Acquire', 'Expand' and 'Scale'. Customers in the Acquire and Expand buckets are loss-making because Palantir spends on pilot projects with them and deploys personnel to educate the customers on how to use the platform, as well as figure out customer needs, with little revenue in return; these stages are essentially where profitability is sacrificed in order to drive customer acquisition.</p>\n<div></div> <p>In the Acquire stage for example, only US$0.6m of revenue was earned from these customers in 2019 vs. a contribution loss of US$65.4m. In the Expand stage, in 2019 customers spent c.US$176m with a contribution margin of -43% (or a contribution loss of about US$76m). In comparison, customers in the 'Scale' stage generated US$565.7m in revenue in 2019 at a contribution margin of +55%. On top of this, Palantir also compares how the same customer cohort in 2019 has done in 2020 as projects move further along the curve, and the numbers are very encouraging. Across all three buckets, the same customer cohorts showed large increases in revenues and sharp improvements in contribution margins.</p> <p>This is summarized in the table below:</p> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/9/21/51650284-16007436003517597.png\"/></p> <p>Source: Palantir S-1 filing</p> <p>So we can see that getting customers to the Scale stage is the key here, and once Palantir is able to do that, we see margins improve exponentially. Has it been able to do that? Well, the numbers don't lie - as we saw in the quarterly contribution margin chart, over the last year or so margins have more than tripled, which speaks to the maturing of Palantir's customer profile. And in the longer-term, I believe there is much more room for contribution margins to rise. If you look at the top 25% of Palantir's customers in the Scale phase by contribution margin, they had a contribution margin of 87%/89% in 2019/1H20, and I see no reason that other customers cannot achieve similar margins over time.</p> <p>In terms of the balance sheet, Palantir had US$1.497bn in unrestricted cash vs. US$297m in debt as of 30 June 2020 - or a net cash balance of US$1.2bn. Looking at the statement of cash flows, one key point to note (this was mentioned in the investor day presentation) is that prior to 2020, Palantir often billed customers upfront for multi-year contracts, resulting in lumpy cash inflows into customer deposits/deferred revenue accounts and that cash would be gradually drawn down over the life of the contract. But since 2020, as customers have matured, Palantir is looking to shorten this billing cycle and cash flows should match the income statement more closely. Hence, in 1H20 although we see a pretty large quantum of operating cash outflows, this is likely due to the transition phase between billing cycles. Meanwhile, capex on property, plant and equipment is low and non-significant, so Free Cash Flow largely mirrors Operating Cash Flow. From the start of 2018-1H20 (2.5 year period), Palantir had a cumulative negative Free Cash Flow of US$463m. Doing the math, at this run-rate, Palantir's cash balance would last about 6.5 years. That is a pretty decent cash burn runway for a fast growing company in my view. At worst, any worries about cash balances won't really surface in a big way until 2-3 years later. At best - and this in my view is more likely - given the operating leverage highlighted earlier, we should see Free Cash Flow improve significantly over the next few years, and my bet is Palantir's balance sheet will be able to last it until the company turns Free Cash Flow positive.</p>\n<div></div> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/9/21/51650284-16007427656294167.png\"/></p> <p>Source: Palantir S-1 filing</p> <h2><strong>Valuation</strong></h2> <p>As with other loss making but fast-growing tech companies, I prefer to include a Discounted Cash Flow model in the analysis, as this accounts for the level of profitability expected to be achieved in the longer-term. I also use a peer multiples comparison as a second method of valuation.</p> <p><strong>Discounted Cash Flow</strong></p> <p>First, let me talk about the Discounted Cash Flow model. I have done a 20-year Discounted Cash Flow model for Palantir, and the key assumptions behind it are as follows:</p> <ol> <li>Over the 20 year forecast, revenue grows from US$742m in 2019 to US$33.5bn in 2039, representing a 45x growth. While that seems quite optimistic at first glance, consider that the TAM for Palantir is estimated at US$119bn currently; if I assume that the TAM doubles in 10 years and triples in 20 years (i.e. hitting almost US$360bn in 2039), then under my assumptions Palantir would have about a 9.4% market share of the market by 2039 vs. less than 1% at the moment. I think this is a reasonable assumption especially since demand for Palantir's product over the competition should grow as data becomes more complex. In the nearer-term, for the 2019-2027 period, I am modelling revenue growth of c.40% CAGR. This compares against a projection by Verified Market Research for the Global Data Prep market to grow at a CAGR of 25.65% from 2020-2027. Again, I feel this is defensible given that Palantir is in the expansion/grabbing of market share stage.</li> <li>On margins, I assume contribution margins gradually trend upwards (from 55% as of 2Q2020), and mange to reach 70% in steady state. Remember, this is compared to Palantir's top 25% of customers in the Scale phase who have contribution margins in the high 80%s.</li> <li>This flows down to operating (EBIT) margins, which improve with greater economies of scale, from an adjusted -41.8% in 1H20 to -0.8% in 2022 before breaking even in 2023. They then improve gradually before hitting a steady-state margin of ~30% in 2030. A 30% margin is comparable to best-in-class software peers like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>.</li> <li>I am using the fully diluted share count of c.2.17bn shares, which includes all the RSUs, options, warrants, growth units and stock appreciation rights regardless of whether they have vested or not. My sense from reading the S-1 filing is that the vast majority of these will vest or be exercised given that the listing itself is an important criteria for vesting while the weighted average option exercise price is pretty low at about $3.55. Hence, it is probably prudent to assume all of these are converted to common equity over the next few years.</li> <li>I use a WACC of 10% to discount future cash flows. I find this is a good rule of thumb to use as a discount rate for riskier companies from my experience. Oil & Gas companies use a 10% discount rate on their future production and that level of risk seems somewhat commensurate with the level of risk we are looking at with regard to the limited visibility on Palantir's revenue and margin outlook. In any case, better to be conservative than not.</li> </ol>\n<div></div> <p>Here is a snapshot of the model:</p> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/9/21/51650284-16007428453047426.png\"/></p> <p>Source: author's calculations and estimates</p> <p>The discounted cash flow model derives a US$19 per share target price, or an equity value of US$41bn for Palantir. This seems high versus where Palantir's shares had traded in the private market, but I am baking in reasonably aggressive revenue and margin assumptions.</p> <p><strong>Peer Comparison</strong></p> <p>Next, looking at peer valuations, while the average Price-to-Sales multiple for my comparison set is only at 6x, this is because the average is dragged down by companies who either i) don't have as great an ability to scale, such as Booz Allen and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLOB\">Globant</a> due to their consulting-type business model or ii) have lower sales growth such as Altair or MicroStrategy. In my opinion, Alteryx is the most relevant peer here and Alteryx is being valued at 14x P/S. Interestingly, Alteryx shares have sold off in recent weeks because of disappointing numbers through 1H20 as COVID-19 has impacted their sales cycle. On the other hand, we saw Palantir record a stellar 1H20 with revenue accelerating to 49% y-o-y (vs. 24.7% in 2019). Some of the strength in Palantir's numbers is probably due to the lagged effect from a longer sales cycle, but nonetheless seeing customers willing to ramp up spend significantly during a period of stress shows that Palantir's platform is a 'must have', whereas competitors like Alteryx may be more of a 'good to have'. Having said that, Alteryx is already profitable on an EBIT level and should be awarded a valuation premium for that whereas Palantir is still not profitable. On a net basis, I am pegging Palantir at 15x 2021 P/S, which is just slightly above Alteryx. This yields a US$12 per share target price.</p> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/9/21/51650284-16007432675583198.png\"/></p>\n<div></div> <p>Source: Palantir S-1 filing, company filings, author's calculations</p> <p>The final piece of information we have with regard to valuation is Palantir's privately traded share prices. From the S-1 filing, we can see that from Jan 2019-July 2020, Palantir's common shares traded at a pretty tight range around US$5 per share. However in August, the weighted average share price shot up to US$7.31, but the range of trade prices was very wide, at US$4.17-11.50 per share. I would ignore the September number given that it only represents one day in September.</p> <p>Putting all these valuation insights together:</p> <p><img loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/9/21/51650284-16007433417443702.png\"/></p> <p>Source: Palantir S-1 filing, author's calculations</p> <p><strong>The verdict: Target price of US$12 per share.</strong> I am basing my target price for Palantir on the 15x 2021 P/S valuation, which represents a middle ground between the various valuation data points. I would view the DCF-derived target price of US$19 per share as the potential for Palantir's shares if they execute well.</p> <h2><strong>Key Risks</strong></h2> <p><strong>Geopolitical risk - could Palantir become the Huawei of the West?</strong> The US has sanctioned Huawei, a privately owned company, on the basis of national security concerns. Many US allies have followed suit (e.g. not using Huawei components in their 5G network buildouts). The US has also disallowed any company using US manufacturing equipment to supply Huawei's subsidiary HiSilicon with components for its semiconductors. These unilateral moves show that there are many creative ways in which the US and China can make 'economic attacks' on each other. Is it possible that China makes a tit-for-tat move, and declines to do business with companies using Palantir? The answer is yes, this is a real possibility in my view - in fact, just as I was done writing this, it was reported in the news that China is debating adding US Tech companies to its 'unreliable entity list', which is the blacklist that was initially announced in May 2019 in retaliation to the Huawei sanctions. While I think it is likely that higher-profile names will be added to China's blacklist first, this is something that bears watching over time, as Palantir might fit the bill of a 'foreign entity' with great access to corporate data. The risk here is not that of Palantir not being able to sell to Chinese firms - we already know Palantir has chosen sides and is not selling to non-US allies. The risk here would be the Chinese refusing to do business with, or reducing business with, firms that use Palantir, as these firms might input data on the Chinese into Palantir and, justifiably or unjustifiably, result in 'national security concerns'.</p>\n<div></div> <p><strong>Revenue concentration.</strong> Palantir's top 20 customers accounted for 67% of total revenue in 2019, at an average of US$15m per top 20 customer in 2019. While customers historically have signed on to longer-term contracts, with Palantir's existing contracts lasting another 3.5 years on average as of 30 June 2020, these contracts usually contain a termination for convenience clause, which basically means that customers can cancel or walk away at any time. Palantir losing some of its top 20 customers would be negative for growth and the share price.</p> <p><strong>Inability to generate economies of scale.</strong> If the deployment of Gotham and Foundry to new customers proves to be more labor-intensive than anticipated, then Palantir would start to be valued as an IT consulting/systems integrator rather than a software company.</p>\n<span></span><p><b>Disclosure:</b> <span>I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.</span> <span>I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.</span></p></div><div><div></div><span><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"5.799999713897705 7.799999237060547 20.30000114440918 16.39999771118164\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M26.1 9.7c-.7.3-1.5.6-2.4.7.9-.5 1.5-1.3 1.8-2.3-.8.5-1.7.8-2.6 1-.8-.8-1.8-1.3-3-1.3-2.3 0-4.1 1.9-4.1 4.1 0 .3 0 .6.1.9-3.4-.2-6.5-1.8-8.5-4.3-.4.7-.7 1.4-.7 2.1 0 1.4.7 2.7 1.8 3.4-.7 0-1.3-.2-1.9-.5v.1c0 2 1.4 3.7 3.3 4.1-.3.1-.7.1-1.1.1-.3 0-.5 0-.8-.1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.9 2.9-1.4 1.1-3.2 1.8-5.1 1.8-.3 0-.7 0-1-.1 1.8 1.2 4 1.9 6.4 1.9 7.6 0 11.8-6.3 11.8-11.8v-.5c.8-.6 1.5-1.3 2.1-2.2zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"18\" viewbox=\"11.000001907348633 6.799999713897705 9.999998092651367 18.600000381469727\" width=\"10\"><path d=\"M20.6 6.8h-2.4c-2.7 0-4.4 1.8-4.4 4.6v2.1h-2.4c-.2 0-.4.2-.4.4v3c0 .2.2.4.4.4h2.4V25c0 .2.2.4.4.4h3.1c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-7.7h2.8c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-3c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1-.2-.1-.3-.1h-2.8v-1.8c0-.9.2-1.3 1.3-1.3h1.6c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4V7.1c0-.2-.2-.3-.4-.3zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"6.200000286102295 6.699999809265137 19.5 18.700000762939453\" width=\"14\"><path d=\"M25.7 18.2v7.2h-4.2v-6.7c0-1.7-.6-2.8-2.1-2.8-1.2 0-1.8.8-2.1 1.5-.1.3-.1.6-.1 1v7H13s.1-11.4 0-12.6h4.2v1.8c.6-.9 1.5-2.1 3.8-2.1 2.7 0 4.7 1.8 4.7 5.7zM8.6 6.7c-1.4 0-2.4.9-2.4 2.2 0 1.2.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.5 0 2.4-1 2.4-2.2 0-1.2-.8-2.2-2.3-2.2zM6.5 25.4h4.2V12.8H6.5v12.6zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"4.5 6.499999523162842 22.900001525878906 18.999998092651367\" width=\"18\"><path d=\"M20.9 16.9c.1.2.1.3.1.5 0 .3-.1.6-.3.9-.2.2-.4.4-.7.5-.1 0-.3.1-.4.1-.3 0-.7-.1-.9-.3-.3-.2-.5-.5-.5-.8v-.3c0-.3.1-.6.3-.8.2-.2.4-.4.7-.5.2-.1.3-.1.5-.1.3 0 .6.1.8.3.1 0 .3.2.4.5zm-.9 3.7c-.1-.1-.3-.1-.4-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-1 .6-2.2.9-3.4.9-.9 0-1.8-.2-2.6-.6-.1 0-.3-.2-.4-.3-.1 0-.2-.1-.2-.1-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-.1.1-.2.1-.3.3-.1.1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .1 0 .2.1.4.1.1.1.2.3.3 1.1.8 2.5 1.1 3.8 1.1 1.2 0 2.4-.3 3.5-.8.1-.1.3-.2.5-.3.1-.1.2-.1.3-.2.1-.1.1-.2.2-.3v-.2c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3l-.3-.3zm-8-1.9c.2.1.3.1.5.1.4 0 .7-.2 1-.4.3-.2.5-.6.5-1v-.1c0-.4-.2-.7-.5-1-.3-.2-.6-.4-1-.4h-.3c-.5.1-.9.5-1.1 1 0 .1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .3.1.6.3.9.2.3.4.4.7.5zm15.4-3.6v.2c0 .6-.2 1.1-.5 1.5-.3.4-.7.8-1.1 1v.7c0 1.2-.4 2.4-1.1 3.3-1.3 1.8-3.4 2.8-5.4 3.3-1.1.3-2.2.4-3.4.4-1.7 0-3.4-.3-4.9-.9-1.6-.7-3.2-1.7-4.1-3.3-.5-.8-.8-1.8-.8-2.8v-.7c-.4-.2-.8-.6-1.1-1-.3-.4-.5-1-.5-1.5 0-.8.3-1.5.8-2s1.2-.9 2-.9h.2c.4 0 .8.1 1.1.2.3.1.6.3.9.5.1 0 .2-.1.3-.1 1.7-1 3.6-1.4 5.4-1.5 0-.9.1-1.9.6-2.7.4-.7 1-1.3 1.8-1.4.3-.1.6-.1.9-.1.8 0 1.6.2 2.3.5.3-.5.8-.9 1.3-1.1.3-.1.7-.2 1-.2.4 0 .7.1 1.1.2.5.2.9.5 1.2 1 .4.4.6.9.6 1.5v.3c-.1.7-.4 1.3-.9 1.7-.5.4-1.1.7-1.8.7H23c-.6 0-1.3-.4-1.7-.8-.4-.5-.7-1.1-.7-1.8v-.1c-.6-.3-1.3-.5-1.9-.5h-.3c-.5 0-.9.4-1.1.8-.3.6-.4 1.4-.4 2.1 1.8.1 3.7.6 5.3 1.5 0 0 .1 0 .1.1.1-.1.2-.2.4-.3.5-.3 1.1-.5 1.7-.5.3 0 .5 0 .8.1.6.2 1.1.5 1.5 1 .4.4.7 1 .7 1.6zm-5.4-6s0 .1 0 0c0 .4.2.7.4.9.2.2.5.4.8.4h.1c.3 0 .6-.1.9-.4.2-.2.4-.5.4-.8v-.1c0-.3-.2-.6-.4-.9-.2-.2-.6-.4-.9-.4H23c-.3.1-.5.2-.7.4-.2.4-.3.6-.3.9zm-13.6 5c-.2-.1-.5-.2-.8-.2h-.1c-.4 0-.7.2-1 .4-.3.3-.5.6-.5 1v.1c0 .2.1.5.2.7.1.2.2.3.3.4.5-1 1.2-1.8 1.9-2.4zm16.1 4.5c0-.8-.3-1.7-.8-2.3-1-1.3-2.4-2.2-4-2.7-.3-.1-.6-.2-.9-.2-.9-.3-1.9-.4-2.8-.4-1.2 0-2.5.2-3.7.6-1.5.5-3 1.4-4 2.7-.5.7-.8 1.5-.8 2.3 0 .3 0 .6.1.9.2.7.5 1.3 1 1.8.4.5 1 1 1.6 1.3.1.1.3.2.4.2 1.7.9 3.6 1.3 5.4 1.3h1c1.9-.2 3.8-.7 5.4-1.9.5-.4.9-.8 1.3-1.3s.6-1.1.7-1.7c0-.2.1-.4.1-.6zm1.5-3.3c0-.2 0-.4-.1-.6-.1-.3-.3-.5-.6-.6-.3-.1-.6-.2-.8-.2-.3 0-.5.1-.8.2.8.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.4.1-.1.3-.3.3-.4.1-.3.2-.6.2-.8zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"10\" viewbox=\"4.699999809265137 8.300000190734863 22.599998474121094 15.40000057220459\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M4.7 8.3v2.5L16 17l11.3-6.1V8.3H4.7zm0 3.7v11.7h22.6V12L16 18.1 4.7 12z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"87.43199920654297 227.56399536132812 422.6809997558594 382.7259826660156\" width=\"20\"><g><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><path d=\"M87.432,332.244v193.283h85.424v84.763h251.855v-84.763h85.402V332.244H87.432z M383.309,568.021H214.237 v-105.67h169.072V568.021z M464.543,418.101h-42.929v-42.929h42.929V418.101z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></g></g><rect fill=\"#FFFFFF\" height=\"84.536\" width=\"253.609\" x=\"175.93\" y=\"227.564\"></rect></g></svg></span></div></div></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBullish On Palantir As It Is Just Beginning To Monetize Its Platforms\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-23 02:17 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4375753-bullish-on-palantir-is-just-beginning-to-monetize-platforms><strong>Invest To Retire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir is a play on big data integration and analysis with a long growth runway ahead as multiple new industries and government agencies are just beginning to use its platforms.More advanced ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4375753-bullish-on-palantir-is-just-beginning-to-monetize-platforms\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4375753-bullish-on-palantir-is-just-beginning-to-monetize-platforms","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2069189701","content_text":"SummaryPalantir is a play on big data integration and analysis with a long growth runway ahead as multiple new industries and government agencies are just beginning to use its platforms.More advanced capabilities (at the expense of not being a ‘plug-and-play’ platform) should drive market share gains in the long-run, as data becomes larger and more complex.Revenue growth is accelerating as customers enter the monetization phase of a long sales cycle, and contribution margins have shown exponential improvement in recent quarters.US$1.2bn net cash balance sheet should be able to fund operations internally until EBIT break-even in 2023.Target price of US$12 per share based on a 15x 2021 Price-to-Sales (P/S) multiple. Discounted Cash Flow model indicates US$19 per share possible if Palantir executes well.The Offering Palantir (PLTR) is undertaking a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange, and is expected to trade on 29 September 2020. Hence, this is not a traditional IPO with a primary share offering or an offering price. We will only get a sense of market value on the 29th of September. Palantir will have three share classes - Class A, Class B and Class F (for Founder) - and the Class A shares are the ones that will be traded in the secondary market. The difference in share classes relates only to a difference in voting power, with Class A being given one vote per share; Class B given ten votes per share; and the unique Class F having a variable voting power that ensures founders retain up to 49.999999% of voting power. In other words, this ensures founders retain major voting power over the company. Roughly 80.5% of shares, options, and restricted stock will be bound by lock-up agreements, which mostly expire on the third trading day after the release of the FY2020 full-year results (so probably some time in Feb 2021). The remaining 19.5% will be freely tradable on listing day. What does Palantir do, and how does it stack up against the competition? In layman's terms, Palantir creates big data solutions for companies and governments by combining existing internal and external sources of data and merging them into a more intuitive platform that helps i) users visualize this data better; ii) discover links between information that were previously not obvious (sometimes using AI to help with this); and iii) keep the database up to date across the organization as the data evolves. Palatir has two core products - Gotham and Foundry - which are broadly similar in purpose but used primarily by the Government and Commercial sectors respectively. In the company's earlier years they were a hybrid IT consulting/Software company, where their IT engineers spent a lot of time 'on the ground' with companies in order to figure out what was really needed and how to build this into the products being offered. But the IPO filing makes it clear that they are now positioning themselves more as a Software company (given higher valuations in the Software sector of course), and the early days of IT engineers spending a lot of time 'on the ground' is now paying off in terms of the R&D knowledge garnered from that, which enables the products to be launched at scale now.\n To be honest, I found trying to understand what Palantir really does and how it stands out against competing products quite perplexing. In Palantir's S-1 filing, they took great care to quote a myriad of case studies in which Palantir was deployed effectively (mapping 5 million Airbus A350 parts; analyzing genomic data; consolidating and connecting the relationships within information relating to terrorists or insurgents). They also give examples of the functionality of various applications within the Gotham and Foundry products (e.g. Gotham's Graph; Gaia; Dossier; Table…), which initially struck me as just being Microsoft Office on steroids. But what is the real value add here, given the wide availability of analytics platforms out there? Is it Palantir's cutting-edge AI system that parses through big data to generate insights that is the value-add? (It supposedly aided in tracking down Bin Laden) Is it simply a better version of Microsoft Office that will gain market share? After combing through the S-1 filing and watching the investor day presentation, the conclusion I have come to is that the real value add Palantir is bringing to the table is Data Integration ability. They have created a product that is somehow able to take all the legacy datasets and systems that government agencies and companies use, and merge them onto a single platform that combines them into a unified source of truth for users. This is the real value-add: the breaking up of legacy information silos, and Palantir claims to be able to do this better than competitors. I think the paragraph below best summarizes the value-add that Palantir brings to the table: \"We believe that the integration and joining of different datasets is what matters most. Data integration also happens to be among the hardest problems to solve. We spent years investing in the development of a platform that makes the task of integrating new datasets routine so that users can focus on taking action on information.\" Having said that, I do feel that the products being offered by competitors like Alteryx and Tableau are very similar. They all have the same functions: data ingestion, data visualization, data exploration… and so on. The goal of these products is also the same: to make data user-friendly and to extract maximum insight from available data. As I read through the websites and filings of some of these companies, I tried to understand if there was something that made Palantir stand out as a disruptor in the space. I couldn't find an obvious answer. And to me, if it is so difficult to find the answer to the question 'why is Palantir a disruptive technology?' then the likely answer is that it simply isn't.\n Of course, there are product-specific pros and cons, but my sense is Palantir is not a game-changer that is going to make all these other companies go bankrupt. What Palantir is, is a top-tier competitor with a solid product that will compete with other data science platforms out there. Palantir seems to a more heavy-duty type of platform; they refer to themselves as an 'Operating System' rather than a software or application in their S-1 filing. The platform is not as simple as plug-and-play, which results in a longer sales cycle than what you may see with other software, but it also seems to have greater functionality and ability to manipulate data than competitors. Customers who choose Palantir must commit time and effort to integrate the platform into their organization to the point it becomes like an 'Operating System', and so the adoption of Palantir will likely face internal inertia, but the rewards can be great. I think this is one reason why Palantir's customer concentration is on the high side, with three unnamed customers accounting for >10% of revenue each within some annual or semi-annual time periods over the last 2.5years, and Palantir having only 125 customers in total as of 1H20. Overall, I feel that Palantir being a heavy-duty 'Operating System' rather than a plug-and-play software will work in its favor in the longer-run, as we are only just on the cusp of the explosion in data globally. As data becomes more complex, a more advanced platform like Palantir could just be what the world needs. Total Addressable Market That the key nature of Palantir's value-add (data integration) is broad-based is important because this opens up a sizeable Total Addressable Market (or TAM) for Palantir. According to their S-1 filing, Palantir estimates their TAM to be US$119bn across the government and commercial sectors (this number includes the TAM from the governments of US allies). This is compared to US$742.6m in revenue in 2019, representing just 0.6% of the annual TAM. These TAMs should always be taken with a pinch of salt, but the rationale behind the derivation of it (talked about in the investor day video) seems reasonable, so I'll run with this for now.\n Still in early stages of growth Palantir was founded in 2003 and started off as a company focused on building intelligence software for the US Government to aid their counterterrorism efforts. Only later did it begin expanding into other government organizations and commercial organizations. You can see from the timeline below that Palantir's cross-industry expansion has only really taken off in the last 5 years or so, as they realized that the nature of data problems faced by governments and commercial companies across various industries were very similar, which the Gotham and Foundry platforms were equipped to address. There is a long growth runway ahead, as Palantir makes inroads into various new industries. Source: Palantir S-1 filing A dive into Palantir's Financials: operating leverage shines through The first thing to point out is that Palantir's revenue growth is actually accelerating, not decelerating (unlike most growth companies). Total revenues in 2019 were up 24.7% y-o-y but in 1H20 revenues were up 49.1% y-o-y. And this is despite COVID-19, which has reduced face-time between Palantir's software engineers and its customers. In my view this is not a one-off window-dressing event, but rather it is the nature of Palantir's business model wherein customer spending rises exponentially as they mature in terms of time spent integrating Palantir into the organization (explained more in a subsequent paragraph). Given that Palantir is still in the early stages of breaking into multiple industries in the Commercial sector, I think this dynamic will continue to drive acceleration in revenues in the near-to-medium term. We have also seen operating and net margins improve significantly as revenues grow, reflecting the operating leverage inherent in the business of selling software. Diving a bit deeper into the details, while the reported 1H20 costs are a bit understated as there were significant travel cost savings totaling c.US$31.6m (according to the S-1 filing) in 1H20, even adjusting for this, Palantir's operating margin has improved to -41.8% in 1H20, compared to -88.3% in 1H19 and -69.4% in 2H19. If this trend continues, I think it's possible that we see positive operating margins by late-2022.\n Source: Palantir S-1 filing Palantir also reports what it calls Contribution Margin, which is defined as \"revenue less our cost of revenue and sales and marketing expenses, excluding stock-based compensation, divided by revenue\". I don't find this metric particularly meaningful, given that it excludes important and significant expenses namely Research & Development, General & Administrative, and Stock-Based Compensation costs which were 32%/34%/33% as a percentage of revenues in 2019 respectively. On stock-based compensation, many companies choose non-GAAP measures that exclude this expense as it is non-cash, but given the dilution to shareholders down the road from exercise of stock warrants, this is a very real expense in my view, and excluding it makes little sense. Nonetheless, despite the flaws of the metric, because Palantir has disclosed its Contribution Margin in terms of quarters since 1Q19 (whereas for other financial metrics only Annual/Semi-Annuals are disclosed), it is useful in getting an even better sense of the trends in margins. In this respect, the numbers tell a positive story, with contribution margins rising sharply and consistently every quarter, from 15% in 3Q19 to 55% in 2Q20 as customers reach a more mature stage. Source: Palantir S-1 filing Indeed, we can derive more color on this from Palantir's S-1 filing where they detail their 'land and expand' strategy. Basically, customers are classified into three buckets called 'Acquire', 'Expand' and 'Scale'. Customers in the Acquire and Expand buckets are loss-making because Palantir spends on pilot projects with them and deploys personnel to educate the customers on how to use the platform, as well as figure out customer needs, with little revenue in return; these stages are essentially where profitability is sacrificed in order to drive customer acquisition.\n In the Acquire stage for example, only US$0.6m of revenue was earned from these customers in 2019 vs. a contribution loss of US$65.4m. In the Expand stage, in 2019 customers spent c.US$176m with a contribution margin of -43% (or a contribution loss of about US$76m). In comparison, customers in the 'Scale' stage generated US$565.7m in revenue in 2019 at a contribution margin of +55%. On top of this, Palantir also compares how the same customer cohort in 2019 has done in 2020 as projects move further along the curve, and the numbers are very encouraging. Across all three buckets, the same customer cohorts showed large increases in revenues and sharp improvements in contribution margins. This is summarized in the table below: Source: Palantir S-1 filing So we can see that getting customers to the Scale stage is the key here, and once Palantir is able to do that, we see margins improve exponentially. Has it been able to do that? Well, the numbers don't lie - as we saw in the quarterly contribution margin chart, over the last year or so margins have more than tripled, which speaks to the maturing of Palantir's customer profile. And in the longer-term, I believe there is much more room for contribution margins to rise. If you look at the top 25% of Palantir's customers in the Scale phase by contribution margin, they had a contribution margin of 87%/89% in 2019/1H20, and I see no reason that other customers cannot achieve similar margins over time. In terms of the balance sheet, Palantir had US$1.497bn in unrestricted cash vs. US$297m in debt as of 30 June 2020 - or a net cash balance of US$1.2bn. Looking at the statement of cash flows, one key point to note (this was mentioned in the investor day presentation) is that prior to 2020, Palantir often billed customers upfront for multi-year contracts, resulting in lumpy cash inflows into customer deposits/deferred revenue accounts and that cash would be gradually drawn down over the life of the contract. But since 2020, as customers have matured, Palantir is looking to shorten this billing cycle and cash flows should match the income statement more closely. Hence, in 1H20 although we see a pretty large quantum of operating cash outflows, this is likely due to the transition phase between billing cycles. Meanwhile, capex on property, plant and equipment is low and non-significant, so Free Cash Flow largely mirrors Operating Cash Flow. From the start of 2018-1H20 (2.5 year period), Palantir had a cumulative negative Free Cash Flow of US$463m. Doing the math, at this run-rate, Palantir's cash balance would last about 6.5 years. That is a pretty decent cash burn runway for a fast growing company in my view. At worst, any worries about cash balances won't really surface in a big way until 2-3 years later. At best - and this in my view is more likely - given the operating leverage highlighted earlier, we should see Free Cash Flow improve significantly over the next few years, and my bet is Palantir's balance sheet will be able to last it until the company turns Free Cash Flow positive.\n Source: Palantir S-1 filing Valuation As with other loss making but fast-growing tech companies, I prefer to include a Discounted Cash Flow model in the analysis, as this accounts for the level of profitability expected to be achieved in the longer-term. I also use a peer multiples comparison as a second method of valuation. Discounted Cash Flow First, let me talk about the Discounted Cash Flow model. I have done a 20-year Discounted Cash Flow model for Palantir, and the key assumptions behind it are as follows: Over the 20 year forecast, revenue grows from US$742m in 2019 to US$33.5bn in 2039, representing a 45x growth. While that seems quite optimistic at first glance, consider that the TAM for Palantir is estimated at US$119bn currently; if I assume that the TAM doubles in 10 years and triples in 20 years (i.e. hitting almost US$360bn in 2039), then under my assumptions Palantir would have about a 9.4% market share of the market by 2039 vs. less than 1% at the moment. I think this is a reasonable assumption especially since demand for Palantir's product over the competition should grow as data becomes more complex. In the nearer-term, for the 2019-2027 period, I am modelling revenue growth of c.40% CAGR. This compares against a projection by Verified Market Research for the Global Data Prep market to grow at a CAGR of 25.65% from 2020-2027. Again, I feel this is defensible given that Palantir is in the expansion/grabbing of market share stage. On margins, I assume contribution margins gradually trend upwards (from 55% as of 2Q2020), and mange to reach 70% in steady state. Remember, this is compared to Palantir's top 25% of customers in the Scale phase who have contribution margins in the high 80%s. This flows down to operating (EBIT) margins, which improve with greater economies of scale, from an adjusted -41.8% in 1H20 to -0.8% in 2022 before breaking even in 2023. They then improve gradually before hitting a steady-state margin of ~30% in 2030. A 30% margin is comparable to best-in-class software peers like Adobe. I am using the fully diluted share count of c.2.17bn shares, which includes all the RSUs, options, warrants, growth units and stock appreciation rights regardless of whether they have vested or not. My sense from reading the S-1 filing is that the vast majority of these will vest or be exercised given that the listing itself is an important criteria for vesting while the weighted average option exercise price is pretty low at about $3.55. Hence, it is probably prudent to assume all of these are converted to common equity over the next few years. I use a WACC of 10% to discount future cash flows. I find this is a good rule of thumb to use as a discount rate for riskier companies from my experience. Oil & Gas companies use a 10% discount rate on their future production and that level of risk seems somewhat commensurate with the level of risk we are looking at with regard to the limited visibility on Palantir's revenue and margin outlook. In any case, better to be conservative than not. \n Here is a snapshot of the model: Source: author's calculations and estimates The discounted cash flow model derives a US$19 per share target price, or an equity value of US$41bn for Palantir. This seems high versus where Palantir's shares had traded in the private market, but I am baking in reasonably aggressive revenue and margin assumptions. Peer Comparison Next, looking at peer valuations, while the average Price-to-Sales multiple for my comparison set is only at 6x, this is because the average is dragged down by companies who either i) don't have as great an ability to scale, such as Booz Allen and Globant due to their consulting-type business model or ii) have lower sales growth such as Altair or MicroStrategy. In my opinion, Alteryx is the most relevant peer here and Alteryx is being valued at 14x P/S. Interestingly, Alteryx shares have sold off in recent weeks because of disappointing numbers through 1H20 as COVID-19 has impacted their sales cycle. On the other hand, we saw Palantir record a stellar 1H20 with revenue accelerating to 49% y-o-y (vs. 24.7% in 2019). Some of the strength in Palantir's numbers is probably due to the lagged effect from a longer sales cycle, but nonetheless seeing customers willing to ramp up spend significantly during a period of stress shows that Palantir's platform is a 'must have', whereas competitors like Alteryx may be more of a 'good to have'. Having said that, Alteryx is already profitable on an EBIT level and should be awarded a valuation premium for that whereas Palantir is still not profitable. On a net basis, I am pegging Palantir at 15x 2021 P/S, which is just slightly above Alteryx. This yields a US$12 per share target price. \n Source: Palantir S-1 filing, company filings, author's calculations The final piece of information we have with regard to valuation is Palantir's privately traded share prices. From the S-1 filing, we can see that from Jan 2019-July 2020, Palantir's common shares traded at a pretty tight range around US$5 per share. However in August, the weighted average share price shot up to US$7.31, but the range of trade prices was very wide, at US$4.17-11.50 per share. I would ignore the September number given that it only represents one day in September. Putting all these valuation insights together: Source: Palantir S-1 filing, author's calculations The verdict: Target price of US$12 per share. I am basing my target price for Palantir on the 15x 2021 P/S valuation, which represents a middle ground between the various valuation data points. I would view the DCF-derived target price of US$19 per share as the potential for Palantir's shares if they execute well. Key Risks Geopolitical risk - could Palantir become the Huawei of the West? The US has sanctioned Huawei, a privately owned company, on the basis of national security concerns. Many US allies have followed suit (e.g. not using Huawei components in their 5G network buildouts). The US has also disallowed any company using US manufacturing equipment to supply Huawei's subsidiary HiSilicon with components for its semiconductors. These unilateral moves show that there are many creative ways in which the US and China can make 'economic attacks' on each other. Is it possible that China makes a tit-for-tat move, and declines to do business with companies using Palantir? The answer is yes, this is a real possibility in my view - in fact, just as I was done writing this, it was reported in the news that China is debating adding US Tech companies to its 'unreliable entity list', which is the blacklist that was initially announced in May 2019 in retaliation to the Huawei sanctions. While I think it is likely that higher-profile names will be added to China's blacklist first, this is something that bears watching over time, as Palantir might fit the bill of a 'foreign entity' with great access to corporate data. The risk here is not that of Palantir not being able to sell to Chinese firms - we already know Palantir has chosen sides and is not selling to non-US allies. The risk here would be the Chinese refusing to do business with, or reducing business with, firms that use Palantir, as these firms might input data on the Chinese into Palantir and, justifiably or unjustifiably, result in 'national security concerns'.\n Revenue concentration. Palantir's top 20 customers accounted for 67% of total revenue in 2019, at an average of US$15m per top 20 customer in 2019. While customers historically have signed on to longer-term contracts, with Palantir's existing contracts lasting another 3.5 years on average as of 30 June 2020, these contracts usually contain a termination for convenience clause, which basically means that customers can cancel or walk away at any time. Palantir losing some of its top 20 customers would be negative for growth and the share price. Inability to generate economies of scale. If the deployment of Gotham and Foundry to new customers proves to be more labor-intensive than anticipated, then Palantir would start to be valued as an IT consulting/systems integrator rather than a software company.\nDisclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":976175465,"gmtCreate":1599651085957,"gmtModify":1703819204719,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大国博弈,逆水行舟,不进则退,中国距离真正站在世界之颠还有不小的距离。清醒的认识中国的地位才能成长。《大国的兴衰》告诉我们,决定大国的国际地位的决定性因素是经济实力。继续埋头苦干,壮大实力,耐心发展,长期主义,才能成就真正的大。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>","listText":"大国博弈,逆水行舟,不进则退,中国距离真正站在世界之颠还有不小的距离。清醒的认识中国的地位才能成长。《大国的兴衰》告诉我们,决定大国的国际地位的决定性因素是经济实力。继续埋头苦干,壮大实力,耐心发展,长期主义,才能成就真正的大。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>","text":"大国博弈,逆水行舟,不进则退,中国距离真正站在世界之颠还有不小的距离。清醒的认识中国的地位才能成长。《大国的兴衰》告诉我们,决定大国的国际地位的决定性因素是经济实力。继续埋头苦干,壮大实力,耐心发展,长期主义,才能成就真正的大。$特斯拉(TSLA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$谷歌(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976175465","repostId":"2065213201","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557309049228305","authorId":"3557309049228305","name":"瞎猫碰死耗子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557309049228305","authorIdStr":"3557309049228305"},"content":"很多人都跟打了鸡血似的嗨,自以为其实也不是自以为是被以为很强大,其实从去年的贸易战开始我们就一直处于下风被动状态。批评不自由,赞美有何意义","text":"很多人都跟打了鸡血似的嗨,自以为其实也不是自以为是被以为很强大,其实从去年的贸易战开始我们就一直处于下风被动状态。批评不自由,赞美有何意义","html":"很多人都跟打了鸡血似的嗨,自以为其实也不是自以为是被以为很强大,其实从去年的贸易战开始我们就一直处于下风被动状态。批评不自由,赞美有何意义"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":988094437,"gmtCreate":1583846982629,"gmtModify":1704351217122,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$</a>路透伦敦3月10日电- - - CEPI全球疫情应对联盟周二表示,将再向生物科技公司Novavax和英国牛津大学注资440万美元,以迅速开发针对covid19的潜在疫苗。 为抗击新出现的流行病而成立的流行病防备创新联盟(CEPI)表示,额外的资金使其在开发新冠状病毒疫苗上的总投资达到2,370万美元。 据路透社(Reuters)统计,截至周二,全球共有超过11.43万例19型冠状病毒感染病例,至少4,026人死亡。 CEPI的首席执行官理查德·哈切特说,该组织正在加速开发一种疫苗,他说,这种疫苗将“对全世界应对这种病毒的努力至关重要”。 到目前为止,CEPI已经投资开发了6种针对**的候选疫苗,包括与美国公司CureVac、Inovio Pharmaceuticals、Moderna和澳大利亚昆士兰大学的项目。新基金将用于Novavax的初期资金,为第一阶段的安全试验铺平道路,而牛津大学(Oxford University)将利用这些资金支持用于动物试验和早期人类安全试验所需的疫苗材料的生产。 CEPI说,它将向一系列研究项目投入总计1亿美元的资金,目的是在几个月内使潜在的候选疫苗进入早期临床试验阶段。现在它已经投资了2370万美元。“没有成功的保证,但我们正以最快的速度和最大的努力工作,希望在未来12到18个月内提供安全有效的疫苗,可能用于更广泛的用途。”哈契说。 CEPI成立于2017年,最初获得了德国、日本和挪威政府、比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会(Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)和惠康信托基金会(Wellcome Trust)全球健康慈善机构4.6亿美元的资助。它的目的是加速开发针对新疾病和未知疾病的疫苗。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$</a>路透伦敦3月10日电- - - CEPI全球疫情应对联盟周二表示,将再向生物科技公司Novavax和英国牛津大学注资440万美元,以迅速开发针对covid19的潜在疫苗。 为抗击新出现的流行病而成立的流行病防备创新联盟(CEPI)表示,额外的资金使其在开发新冠状病毒疫苗上的总投资达到2,370万美元。 据路透社(Reuters)统计,截至周二,全球共有超过11.43万例19型冠状病毒感染病例,至少4,026人死亡。 CEPI的首席执行官理查德·哈切特说,该组织正在加速开发一种疫苗,他说,这种疫苗将“对全世界应对这种病毒的努力至关重要”。 到目前为止,CEPI已经投资开发了6种针对**的候选疫苗,包括与美国公司CureVac、Inovio Pharmaceuticals、Moderna和澳大利亚昆士兰大学的项目。新基金将用于Novavax的初期资金,为第一阶段的安全试验铺平道路,而牛津大学(Oxford University)将利用这些资金支持用于动物试验和早期人类安全试验所需的疫苗材料的生产。 CEPI说,它将向一系列研究项目投入总计1亿美元的资金,目的是在几个月内使潜在的候选疫苗进入早期临床试验阶段。现在它已经投资了2370万美元。“没有成功的保证,但我们正以最快的速度和最大的努力工作,希望在未来12到18个月内提供安全有效的疫苗,可能用于更广泛的用途。”哈契说。 CEPI成立于2017年,最初获得了德国、日本和挪威政府、比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会(Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)和惠康信托基金会(Wellcome Trust)全球健康慈善机构4.6亿美元的资助。它的目的是加速开发针对新疾病和未知疾病的疫苗。","text":"$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$路透伦敦3月10日电- - - CEPI全球疫情应对联盟周二表示,将再向生物科技公司Novavax和英国牛津大学注资440万美元,以迅速开发针对covid19的潜在疫苗。 为抗击新出现的流行病而成立的流行病防备创新联盟(CEPI)表示,额外的资金使其在开发新冠状病毒疫苗上的总投资达到2,370万美元。 据路透社(Reuters)统计,截至周二,全球共有超过11.43万例19型冠状病毒感染病例,至少4,026人死亡。 CEPI的首席执行官理查德·哈切特说,该组织正在加速开发一种疫苗,他说,这种疫苗将“对全世界应对这种病毒的努力至关重要”。 到目前为止,CEPI已经投资开发了6种针对**的候选疫苗,包括与美国公司CureVac、Inovio Pharmaceuticals、Moderna和澳大利亚昆士兰大学的项目。新基金将用于Novavax的初期资金,为第一阶段的安全试验铺平道路,而牛津大学(Oxford University)将利用这些资金支持用于动物试验和早期人类安全试验所需的疫苗材料的生产。 CEPI说,它将向一系列研究项目投入总计1亿美元的资金,目的是在几个月内使潜在的候选疫苗进入早期临床试验阶段。现在它已经投资了2370万美元。“没有成功的保证,但我们正以最快的速度和最大的努力工作,希望在未来12到18个月内提供安全有效的疫苗,可能用于更广泛的用途。”哈契说。 CEPI成立于2017年,最初获得了德国、日本和挪威政府、比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会(Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)和惠康信托基金会(Wellcome Trust)全球健康慈善机构4.6亿美元的资助。它的目的是加速开发针对新疾病和未知疾病的疫苗。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/988094437","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974645968,"gmtCreate":1601046054354,"gmtModify":1703823483413,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"电池与电芯,从行业说起,技术,趋势,领先度,可量产性,未来体量与现在","listText":"电池与电芯,从行业说起,技术,趋势,领先度,可量产性,未来体量与现在","text":"电池与电芯,从行业说起,技术,趋势,领先度,可量产性,未来体量与现在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974645968","repostId":"2070657900","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2070657900","pubTimestamp":1601013660,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2070657900?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-25 14:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"解读特斯拉电池日核心技术,是创新者还是追随者?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2070657900","media":"界面新闻","summary":"原标题:解读特斯拉电池日核心技术,是创新者还是追随者?特斯拉昨日发布了新一代的4680电池,在续航和成本上都有明显进步,引起汽车和科技圈的热烈讨论,甚至还有特斯拉掀起了新一轮电池技术革命,要抢电芯企业","content":"<div>\n<p>原标题:解读特斯拉电池日核心技术,是创新者还是追随者?特斯拉昨日发布了新一代的4680电池,在续航和成本上都有明显进步,引起汽车和科技圈的热烈讨论,甚至还有特斯拉掀起了新一轮电池技术革命,要抢电芯企业饭碗的声音。但事情并没有这么简单。特斯拉电池日活动现场特斯拉虽然凭借在自动驾驶和智能座舱领域的强劲技术实力和先发优势,在电动车领域战无不胜,获得冠军位置。但在动力电池领域,其还是一个后来者和追随者的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-09-25/doc-iivhuipp6395425.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-09-25/doc-iivhuipp6395425.shtml><strong>界面新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:解读特斯拉电池日核心技术,是创新者还是追随者?特斯拉昨日发布了新一代的4680电池,在续航和成本上都有明显进步,引起汽车和科技圈的热烈讨论,甚至还有特斯拉掀起了新一轮电池技术革命,要抢电芯企业饭碗的声音。但事情并没有这么简单。特斯拉电池日活动现场特斯拉虽然凭借在自动驾驶和智能座舱领域的强劲技术实力和先发优势,在电动车领域战无不胜,获得冠军位置。但在动力电池领域,其还是一个后来者和追随者的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-09-25/doc-iivhuipp6395425.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c7f56416ea450ba452ed25e324d2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-09-25/doc-iivhuipp6395425.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2070657900","content_text":"原标题:解读特斯拉电池日核心技术,是创新者还是追随者?特斯拉昨日发布了新一代的4680电池,在续航和成本上都有明显进步,引起汽车和科技圈的热烈讨论,甚至还有特斯拉掀起了新一轮电池技术革命,要抢电芯企业饭碗的声音。但事情并没有这么简单。特斯拉电池日活动现场特斯拉虽然凭借在自动驾驶和智能座舱领域的强劲技术实力和先发优势,在电动车领域战无不胜,获得冠军位置。但在动力电池领域,其还是一个后来者和追随者的角色。不管是大号电芯的结构设计,高镍低钴、硅基等材料革新,还是CTC的装配工艺,在动力电池产业并不是新鲜,都是中日韩企业已经量产,或者正在研发中的技术。与此同时,发布一项技术跟量产一项技术完全不是一个概念。马斯克自己在发布会上就明确表示,量产比研发要难上超过百倍。特斯拉虽然秀出了一些技术概念,但在可量产性和领先性上,其实并没有超过专业的电芯企业。动力电池领域的主角,一定时间内仍然将是宁德时代、松下、LG等龙头企业。一、 高镍低钴大电池已成共识 电芯企业早已显出身手特斯拉昨天推出的新电池,第一个变化是尺寸升级,从2170变为了4680,几乎粗了一圈,电池容量和输出功率都有数倍的提升。这种不断将电池做大的玩法,在电池行业已多次上演。松下最开始给特斯拉提供的是1865电芯,随后升级至了2170规格;国内的宁德时代在2016年起也开始走大电芯路线,单个电芯容量从50Ah升级到150Ah又到了300Ah,容量也是不断翻倍。特斯拉展示的新款电芯一位动力电池技术专家告诉车东西,电池做大确实提升容量和功率,但也会有一系列难题,比如发热量加大、卷绕层增加影响电芯一致性、电流提升影响快充性能和寿命等问题。特斯拉给出的一个解法是取消极耳降低内阻。这一做法看似新鲜,但其实电池企业里已经普遍在用,核心原理是尽可能多的增加极耳(将极耳放在圆柱体的边缘而非中间),当极耳数量多到一定程度,就相当于是没有极耳了。特斯拉新款电芯内部无极耳只不过特斯拉将其称为无极耳技术,而电芯企业将其叫做了全极耳技术(事实也确实如此)。材料上,特斯拉展示出的正极高镍低钴(无钴)和硅基负极技术不仅是业内共识,甚至已经早已投入量产。比如特斯拉Model 3搭载的松下2170电芯、宁德时代2019年量产的NCM811电芯,镍与钴的比例均是八比一,是标准的高镍低钴产品。硅基负极材料上,中科院欧阳明高院士2019年底就透露,宁德时代的高镍三元正极和硅碳负极电池(第二代NCM811电芯)的能量密度已经达到304Wh/kg,并将在今年投产。相比之下,特斯拉的新电池目前还仅仅是处于研发阶段,真正量产至少要等到2022年左右,技术领先性高下立断。二、CTP技术国内已经量产 宁德时代CTC也在路上特斯拉新电池的第二个重点是要跟车身结构进行匹配——即直接将电芯装入车辆底盘的CTC技术,从而进一步降低电池组的重量(也就是降低整车重量),提升车辆续航表现,同时还能节约成本。特斯拉新电芯可直接装入底盘从发布时间上来说,特斯拉这项技术其实是追随了电池企业的脚步。比如宁德时代在2017年就已经实现了CTC技术的前身——CTP无模组技术的量产,基于CTP技术的磷酸铁电池已经大量装车。2019年,其又在三元锂电池上实现了CTP技术,并率先在北汽的乘用车上实现量产搭载。今年上半年很火的比亚迪刀片电池,也采用的是CTP技术。基于这些技术积累,电芯企业又率先迈入了CTC时代。在今年8月份的一场行业论坛上,宁德时代董事长曾毓群透露正在与客户联合研发CTC技术,其目标不仅仅是将电芯集成到底盘,还会将三电系统,以及DC/DC、OBC等高压部件纳入进来,并通过动力域控制器优化动力分配降低能耗。基于这种设计,电动车的续航预计可以达到800~1000公里,并且性能和成本都可以直接和燃油车叫板。很明显,特斯拉的CTC技术不仅比宁德时代公布的更晚,其在集成度上其实也并不领先。电池和装配工艺之外,特斯拉还规划了一个磷酸铁、镍锰、高镍电池同步走的发展路线,分别对应入门的乘用车型/储能设备、长续航乘用车、商用车/皮卡。这种多路线发展的模式,其实也正是国内外车企和电芯企业正在践行的做法。比如宁德时代就规划有磷酸铁、NCM523、NCM523高压和NCM811等产品线,其中磷酸铁供给成本敏感的入门车型,比如北汽的EU5;811电芯供给宝马iX3等高端车型;523电芯则给中端车型使用,满足不同车企的需求。三、电池需求将暴增 电芯产能仍在龙头企业手中电动汽车已是未来趋势,中国、美国、欧洲地区电动车销量不断增长,这意味着对动力电池的需求也将迅速爆发。按照特斯拉的预估,2030年全球电动汽车需要的动力电池数量高达10TWh(10000GWh)——现有的电池产能完全是杯水车薪。因此特斯拉也将加大电池产量来满足需求,同时也开始涉足上游的锂矿开采、下游的动力电池回收业务。特斯拉的目标是2022年电池工厂产能要达到100GWh,2030年达到3TWh。且不说2030年的恐怖数字,仅100GWh的目标就相当夸张。2019年全国动力电池装机量总计也就刚超过60GWh,特斯拉现在只有一座电池工厂,年产能15GWh,满足特斯拉自己的需求都捉襟见肘。2年内再新增85GWh,实现起来非常有难度。特斯拉的电池工厂事实上,面对未来庞大的动力电池需求,现在也只有一线电芯企业才有实力进行布局。LG电池目前在韩国梧仓、中国南京、美国霍兰德和波兰弗罗茨瓦夫共有四个工厂,总产能70GWh。其最近两年也不断对这些工厂进行扩建,提升产能。同时还与吉利、通用在合资建厂,规划了40GWh的产能,预计最近一两年能达到110GWh的规模。宁德时代财报信息显示,2019年总计拥有58GWh的产能,同时还花费数百亿元在车里湾、湖西、江苏、四川同时开建四个生产基地,总计将新增97GWh的产能。同时,其还在欧洲规划了工厂,几处加起来总产能超过160GWh。宁德时代产能扩建项目宁德时代和LG是全球最大的两家动力电池供应商,仅这两家的产能加起来就超过200GWh,毫无疑问未来几年内仍将是全球动力电池市场的主要供应商。保证产能不仅仅是建厂,还需要在上游的矿物开采、下游的电池回收领域进行布局。这方面,龙头电芯企业显然走得更快更远。宁德时代去年斥资5500万澳元获得了澳洲锂矿公司Pilbara Minerals 8.5%的股份,同时还是北美锂业、北美镍业公司的股东。2013年宁德时代就已收购广东邦普开始从事电池正极材料回收业务,并与上汽等多个车企展开合作。相比之下,特斯拉在今年才进入锂矿开采领域并提出了材料回收技术,节奏明显落后与电芯企业。结语:中国新能源产业不能起大早赶晚集虽然特斯拉这次没有发布特别开创性的技术,但它的入局还是传递了一个清晰的信号,就是以特斯拉正在宁德时代、松下、LG等头部电池企业开辟的长续航+长寿命+降成本+高安全综合技术路线上快速追赶。而国内此前还在讨论究竟要不要放弃三元高镍路线,回归磷酸铁锂的老路。如果夜郎自大、固步自封,就会放弃中国发展新能源产业10多年来积累的先发优势。特斯拉虽说是电池领域的后来者,追随者。但如果它在未来将新一代电池、超大规模产能还有储能领域的目标全部实现,它就真正实现了新能源领域的完整闭环。这样一来,凭借特斯拉的领先位置,又将让新能源产业的话语权和标准制定权回到美国手中。正如宁德时代董事长曾毓群此前演讲中所言,“中国的新能源产业,不能起个大早却赶个晚集。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"content":"要看最专业最接近真相的信息,避免信息的无质叠加和情绪偏好性信息,既看褒面也看贬面,避免被蒙蔽(人性最深刻一点就是盲从、轻信,普通人和很多看起来不普通的领导者都会犯)。从中筛选出真正有价值的,形成观点,或许并不完全全面,但至少接近真相,拉开和舆论以及公众情绪的底层差距","text":"要看最专业最接近真相的信息,避免信息的无质叠加和情绪偏好性信息,既看褒面也看贬面,避免被蒙蔽(人性最深刻一点就是盲从、轻信,普通人和很多看起来不普通的领导者都会犯)。从中筛选出真正有价值的,形成观点,或许并不完全全面,但至少接近真相,拉开和舆论以及公众情绪的底层差距","html":"要看最专业最接近真相的信息,避免信息的无质叠加和情绪偏好性信息,既看褒面也看贬面,避免被蒙蔽(人性最深刻一点就是盲从、轻信,普通人和很多看起来不普通的领导者都会犯)。从中筛选出真正有价值的,形成观点,或许并不完全全面,但至少接近真相,拉开和舆论以及公众情绪的底层差距"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965737901,"gmtCreate":1584070342203,"gmtModify":1704352891103,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXX\">$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>巴菲特说89年了我也第一次见这种市场,所以跌了就变价值投资吧[笑哭][笑哭]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXX\">$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>巴菲特说89年了我也第一次见这种市场,所以跌了就变价值投资吧[笑哭][笑哭]","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$巴菲特说89年了我也第一次见这种市场,所以跌了就变价值投资吧[笑哭][笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965737901","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3444985493924489","authorId":"3444985493924489","name":"百乐事","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3444985493924489","authorIdStr":"3444985493924489"},"content":"然后他还是没有准备抄底","text":"然后他还是没有准备抄底","html":"然后他还是没有准备抄底"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387516474,"gmtCreate":1613754156698,"gmtModify":1613754156698,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在牛市中,市场的反应功能(价格对新闻和事件的反应方式)完全不同。熊市不会考虑经济影响。约翰邓普顿说:“牛市生于极度悲观,成长于怀疑论,死于狂热。”由经济复苏带动的牛市通常不会很快结束。","listText":"在牛市中,市场的反应功能(价格对新闻和事件的反应方式)完全不同。熊市不会考虑经济影响。约翰邓普顿说:“牛市生于极度悲观,成长于怀疑论,死于狂热。”由经济复苏带动的牛市通常不会很快结束。","text":"在牛市中,市场的反应功能(价格对新闻和事件的反应方式)完全不同。熊市不会考虑经济影响。约翰邓普顿说:“牛市生于极度悲观,成长于怀疑论,死于狂热。”由经济复苏带动的牛市通常不会很快结束。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387516474","repostId":"1156000449","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"content":"Lazlo Birinyi把牛市分为四个阶段,勉强,巩固,接受和繁荣。其中,第一阶段勉强(从熊市低点反转)和最后阶段繁荣(狂热开始)提供最佳回报。","text":"Lazlo Birinyi把牛市分为四个阶段,勉强,巩固,接受和繁荣。其中,第一阶段勉强(从熊市低点反转)和最后阶段繁荣(狂热开始)提供最佳回报。","html":"Lazlo Birinyi把牛市分为四个阶段,勉强,巩固,接受和繁荣。其中,第一阶段勉强(从熊市低点反转)和最后阶段繁荣(狂热开始)提供最佳回报。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972527736,"gmtCreate":1600277587525,"gmtModify":1703821053146,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"观察公司的维度:业务情况:profile,画面感直观感受基本面:营收,毛利,用户增速,用户留存率,财务指标,SAAS和IAAS估值差异的原因管理团队:创始人,CEO,CFO和其他类似赛道公司的经营财务指标横向比较:Zoom,Docusign,Crowdstrike各因素权重排序<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">$Docusign(DOCU)$</a>","listText":"观察公司的维度:业务情况:profile,画面感直观感受基本面:营收,毛利,用户增速,用户留存率,财务指标,SAAS和IAAS估值差异的原因管理团队:创始人,CEO,CFO和其他类似赛道公司的经营财务指标横向比较:Zoom,Docusign,Crowdstrike各因素权重排序<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOCU\">$Docusign(DOCU)$</a>","text":"观察公司的维度:业务情况:profile,画面感直观感受基本面:营收,毛利,用户增速,用户留存率,财务指标,SAAS和IAAS估值差异的原因管理团队:创始人,CEO,CFO和其他类似赛道公司的经营财务指标横向比较:Zoom,Docusign,Crowdstrike各因素权重排序$Zoom(ZM)$$Snowflake(SNOW)$$Docusign(DOCU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972527736","repostId":"972585688","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":972585688,"gmtCreate":1600271870635,"gmtModify":1703821022390,"author":{"id":"3497328009582754","authorId":"3497328009582754","name":"桃李春风益点财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8827e0d2ccb8087a4e15cbe447ad5c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497328009582754","authorIdStr":"3497328009582754"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n 【直播回放】专业解读来了!老虎特邀贝瑞直播,为大家深度解读Snowflake。内容要点:1. 巴菲特在科技股,尤其是云计算行业上投资态度的变化?2. 为什么Snowflake能吸引巴菲特第一次打新?3. Snowflake上市对其他云计算公司以及整体科技股会带来什么影响? <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>\n \n","listText":"【直播回放】专业解读来了!老虎特邀贝瑞直播,为大家深度解读Snowflake。内容要点:1. 巴菲特在科技股,尤其是云计算行业上投资态度的变化?2. 为什么Snowflake能吸引巴菲特第一次打新?3. Snowflake上市对其他云计算公司以及整体科技股会带来什么影响? <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>","text":"【直播回放】专业解读来了!老虎特邀贝瑞直播,为大家深度解读Snowflake。内容要点:1. 巴菲特在科技股,尤其是云计算行业上投资态度的变化?2. 为什么Snowflake能吸引巴菲特第一次打新?3. Snowflake上市对其他云计算公司以及整体科技股会带来什么影响? $Snowflake(SNOW)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972585688","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"c616a32e9dd64059a21b354b527bcb00","tweetId":"972585688","title":"3分钟了解上市公司:连巴菲特都打新的 Snowflake 会不会是第二个Zoom?--更多内容访问老虎股票学院","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/27e1f7ecvodtransgzp1254107296/a27fad6d5285890807660082824/v.f100030.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14486c27b41b069c1d257d9914d0feae","shareLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&page=%2Fcollege%2Fprograma%2Fdetail&rndata=%7B%22gid%22%3A%20%22P20200629100843424%22%2C%20%22videoId%22%3A%20%2220200916133922536%22%7D"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965783218,"gmtCreate":1584075278134,"gmtModify":1704352909194,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXX\">$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVXY\">$0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF(SVXY)$</a> 做任何财务决策之前,先把情绪剥离开,并留足安全储备。享受痛苦,方能见到曙光","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXX\">$短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVXY\">$0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF(SVXY)$</a> 做任何财务决策之前,先把情绪剥离开,并留足安全储备。享受痛苦,方能见到曙光","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $蔚来(NIO)$ $二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ $短期VIX期货ETN(VXX)$ $0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF(SVXY)$ 做任何财务决策之前,先把情绪剥离开,并留足安全储备。享受痛苦,方能见到曙光","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965783218","repostId":"2019574704","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2019574704","pubTimestamp":1584065400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2019574704?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-13 10:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"暴跌中有人大赚:5天之内将5000美元变成超12.3万美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2019574704","media":"新浪财经综合","summary":"原标题:暴跌中有人大赚:5天之内将5000美元变成超123000美元 来源:金十数据\n Robinhood上一位用户名为SpeaksInBoolean的交易员说,他在5天之内将5000美元变成了超1","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 原标题:暴跌中有人大赚:5天之内将5000美元变成超123000美元 来源:金十数据</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify subpect-abstract\"> Robinhood上一位用户名为SpeaksInBoolean的交易员说,他在5天之内将5000美元变成了超123000美元。他通过购买VIX看涨期权获得了2400%的回报,本周一,在疫情海外影响蔓延叠加周末沙特发起石油价格战的情况下,市场恐慌抛售,恐慌指数VIX一度飙升至超60点。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 在获利之后,SpeaksInBooleans将部分利润投入到追踪标普500指数的ETF(SPY)中。标普500指数周二上涨4.94%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 这位业余交易员于周二在WallStreetBets subreddit上发布了他意外收获的屏幕截图。美国商业网站Business Insider通过采访向他了解了更多信息,并通过查看他Robinhood帐户的屏幕快照确认了他的交易。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 以下为采访内容:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 主持人:您能简单介绍下自己吗?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> SpeaksInBooleans:我是男性,我20多岁,住在科罗拉多州。我是技术领域的顾问。我已经投资十多年了。但是,我过去一周所做的其实不是投资。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 主持人:可以跟我们说说您过去一周做的交易吗?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> SpeaksInBooleans:3月5日,我在VXX上购买了价值5000美元的40美元VIX看涨期权,到期日为3月20日。3月9日我卖掉了它们。9日晚些时候,我购买了3万美元的SPY看涨合约,到期日为3月13日,并在3月10日卖掉了它们。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 主持人:关于这两笔交易您的思路是什么?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> SpeaksInBooleans:我买VXX看涨期权,是因为当时VXX接近52周低点,且我预判疫情影响会造成市场波动。我运气很好,石油战导致的油价暴跌引发了整个市场的动荡,虽然我的判断理由没有对,但结果却跟我预想的一样了。我买入SPY看涨合约的初衷是,周一暴跌之后,标普500指数周二通常至少会反弹2%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 主持人:您在购买SPY看涨合约时是否有担心过把您之前的收益亏掉吗?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> SpeaksInBooleans:我预留了大部分利润,在我10万美元的利润中,我只拿出3000美元去购买SPY看涨合约。我对自己之前的回报感到非常满意,并希望及时锁定收益。这样做永远都不会错。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 主持人:这次赚到的钱您准备如何处理呢?您有想买什么有趣的东西吗?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> SpeaksInBooleans:首先,我会在高收益的储蓄账户中留出税款。其次,我会继续投资标普500指数的长期头寸,以补充我的退休账户。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 至于有趣的东西,其实很简单。也许一瓶100美元的苏格兰威士忌和一双漂亮的牛仔靴,但其实相比之下,我更愿意把它用于投资,看着它在接下来几十年中增值。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 主持人:您觉得您能抵制住继续买入的诱惑吗?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> SpeaksInBooleans:我其实很想说,我可能会继续冒险把10万甚至更多钱投入交易,但我现在没看到特别感兴趣的交易机会。我这一次真的是因为走运,我自己知道,这将近3000%的回报率并不是可持续的。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 主持人:您一直说这次是运气,且不把这个叫做投资,为什么呢?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> SpeaksInBooleans:我觉得这次真的不是投资,基本类似赌博了,就是100%的运气。我讨厌听到别人说“我也想像你这样,可以教我吗?”这样的话。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify strong-Bold\"> 我的建议一直都是:把债务还清,拥有应急基金,最大程度地扩充自己的退休资金,在这些前提下,你就可以随意决定自己如何花钱了。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 比如我选择拿它去股市中赌博。我以为疫情会让处于52周低位的VXX上涨,虽然我没有全错,但其实让VXX上涨的主要因素其实是油价的暴动,我当时并没有看到这一点。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 老实说,我没想到会在这周就卖掉我的VXX看涨期权,但我知道见好就收。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 主持人:在这个动荡的时刻,您对投资者有什么建议吗?他们在接下来的几周内应该严格遵守安全原则,还是像您一样寻找机会从波动中获利呢?</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> SpeaksInBooleans:在做涉及财务的决策时一定要把情绪剥离开,我觉得市场还没有到底。我个人在等,等到标普500指数跌到我心目中能够入场的那个水平,我会买入并长期持有,股市可能下跌更多。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> 冲动做决策很可能会导致快速亏钱,我相信还有很多机会和时间可以赚钱,将来我可能会小仓位进场。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> Business Insider 更新:</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-Justify\"> SpeaksInBooleans周三发布了一个截图,显示他的Robinhood帐户中有25万美元。他告诉Business Insider,他通过投资SPY看跌期权提高了之前的回报。周三标普500指数收跌4.89%。</p>\n<p>责任编辑:孟然 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>暴跌中有人大赚:5天之内将5000美元变成超12.3万美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n暴跌中有人大赚:5天之内将5000美元变成超12.3万美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-13 10:10 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-03-13/doc-iimxxstf8648381.shtml><strong>新浪财经综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:暴跌中有人大赚:5天之内将5000美元变成超123000美元 来源:金十数据\n Robinhood上一位用户名为SpeaksInBoolean的交易员说,他在5天之内将5000美元变成了超123000美元。他通过购买VIX看涨期权获得了2400%的回报,本周一,在疫情海外影响蔓延叠加周末沙特发起石油价格战的情况下,市场恐慌抛售,恐慌指数VIX一度飙升至超60点。\n 在获利之后,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-03-13/doc-iimxxstf8648381.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f3d0c168656a3e6eb4245c3c31ff40","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","UVXY":"1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","TVIX":"二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-03-13/doc-iimxxstf8648381.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2019574704","content_text":"原标题:暴跌中有人大赚:5天之内将5000美元变成超123000美元 来源:金十数据\n Robinhood上一位用户名为SpeaksInBoolean的交易员说,他在5天之内将5000美元变成了超123000美元。他通过购买VIX看涨期权获得了2400%的回报,本周一,在疫情海外影响蔓延叠加周末沙特发起石油价格战的情况下,市场恐慌抛售,恐慌指数VIX一度飙升至超60点。\n 在获利之后,SpeaksInBooleans将部分利润投入到追踪标普500指数的ETF(SPY)中。标普500指数周二上涨4.94%。\n 这位业余交易员于周二在WallStreetBets subreddit上发布了他意外收获的屏幕截图。美国商业网站Business Insider通过采访向他了解了更多信息,并通过查看他Robinhood帐户的屏幕快照确认了他的交易。\n 以下为采访内容:\n 主持人:您能简单介绍下自己吗?\n SpeaksInBooleans:我是男性,我20多岁,住在科罗拉多州。我是技术领域的顾问。我已经投资十多年了。但是,我过去一周所做的其实不是投资。\n 主持人:可以跟我们说说您过去一周做的交易吗?\n SpeaksInBooleans:3月5日,我在VXX上购买了价值5000美元的40美元VIX看涨期权,到期日为3月20日。3月9日我卖掉了它们。9日晚些时候,我购买了3万美元的SPY看涨合约,到期日为3月13日,并在3月10日卖掉了它们。\n 主持人:关于这两笔交易您的思路是什么?\n SpeaksInBooleans:我买VXX看涨期权,是因为当时VXX接近52周低点,且我预判疫情影响会造成市场波动。我运气很好,石油战导致的油价暴跌引发了整个市场的动荡,虽然我的判断理由没有对,但结果却跟我预想的一样了。我买入SPY看涨合约的初衷是,周一暴跌之后,标普500指数周二通常至少会反弹2%。\n 主持人:您在购买SPY看涨合约时是否有担心过把您之前的收益亏掉吗?\n SpeaksInBooleans:我预留了大部分利润,在我10万美元的利润中,我只拿出3000美元去购买SPY看涨合约。我对自己之前的回报感到非常满意,并希望及时锁定收益。这样做永远都不会错。\n 主持人:这次赚到的钱您准备如何处理呢?您有想买什么有趣的东西吗?\n SpeaksInBooleans:首先,我会在高收益的储蓄账户中留出税款。其次,我会继续投资标普500指数的长期头寸,以补充我的退休账户。\n 至于有趣的东西,其实很简单。也许一瓶100美元的苏格兰威士忌和一双漂亮的牛仔靴,但其实相比之下,我更愿意把它用于投资,看着它在接下来几十年中增值。\n 主持人:您觉得您能抵制住继续买入的诱惑吗?\n SpeaksInBooleans:我其实很想说,我可能会继续冒险把10万甚至更多钱投入交易,但我现在没看到特别感兴趣的交易机会。我这一次真的是因为走运,我自己知道,这将近3000%的回报率并不是可持续的。\n 主持人:您一直说这次是运气,且不把这个叫做投资,为什么呢?\n SpeaksInBooleans:我觉得这次真的不是投资,基本类似赌博了,就是100%的运气。我讨厌听到别人说“我也想像你这样,可以教我吗?”这样的话。\n 我的建议一直都是:把债务还清,拥有应急基金,最大程度地扩充自己的退休资金,在这些前提下,你就可以随意决定自己如何花钱了。\n 比如我选择拿它去股市中赌博。我以为疫情会让处于52周低位的VXX上涨,虽然我没有全错,但其实让VXX上涨的主要因素其实是油价的暴动,我当时并没有看到这一点。\n 老实说,我没想到会在这周就卖掉我的VXX看涨期权,但我知道见好就收。\n 主持人:在这个动荡的时刻,您对投资者有什么建议吗?他们在接下来的几周内应该严格遵守安全原则,还是像您一样寻找机会从波动中获利呢?\n SpeaksInBooleans:在做涉及财务的决策时一定要把情绪剥离开,我觉得市场还没有到底。我个人在等,等到标普500指数跌到我心目中能够入场的那个水平,我会买入并长期持有,股市可能下跌更多。\n 冲动做决策很可能会导致快速亏钱,我相信还有很多机会和时间可以赚钱,将来我可能会小仓位进场。\n Business Insider 更新:\n SpeaksInBooleans周三发布了一个截图,显示他的Robinhood帐户中有25万美元。他告诉Business Insider,他通过投资SPY看跌期权提高了之前的回报。周三标普500指数收跌4.89%。\n责任编辑:孟然","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396431588,"gmtCreate":1607249227944,"gmtModify":1703846877663,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"关于AXSM公司财务情况和主要pipeline研发情况。以及AXS-05的估值","listText":"关于AXSM公司财务情况和主要pipeline研发情况。以及AXS-05的估值","text":"关于AXSM公司财务情况和主要pipeline研发情况。以及AXS-05的估值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396431588","repostId":"2072085648","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2072085648","pubTimestamp":1601816448,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2072085648?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-04 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Recent Sell-Off In Axsome Creates A Good Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2072085648","media":"Andy Jones","summary":"Axsome already has positive Phase 3 data on its first therapy and should be submitting the NDA later this quarter.The company already had a cash runway through 2022 and now has put in place a credit facility that extends that out for the foreseeable future.Despite this progress, shares have dropped meaningfully, creating opportunity for the long-term investor.","content":"<html><body><div><div><div><div>Summary</div><div><p>Axsome already has positive Phase 3 data on its first therapy and should be submitting the NDA later this quarter.</p><p>The company already had a cash runway through 2022 and now has put in place a credit facility that extends that out for the foreseeable future.</p><p>Despite this progress, shares have dropped meaningfully, creating opportunity for the long-term investor.</p></div></div></div><div><p>Axsome Therapeutics <span>(NASDAQ:AXSM)</span> was a huge gainer in 2019, but has struggled for much of 2020. I first purchased the stock at about $78 back in June around the time I first covered the company on Seeking Alpha. Since then, the company traded up into the mid-$80's before now ending up around $70.</p> <p><img height=\"241\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/3/4562691-16017657305009604.png\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><strong>Figure 1:</strong> Axsome Stock Chart (<em>Source: Finviz</em>)</p> <p>This volatile ride might make <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> think that Axsome's performance has been uneven or had setbacks during the intervening months, but that isn't true at all. In fact, Axsome has continued to march towards its first product approvals while taking a mostly non-dilutive step to shore up its balance sheet for several years to come. Much of the negative sentiment of late seems to stem from a Bank of America analyst initiating coverage on Axsome as a sell, stating that its two likely 2021 launches will disappoint because the products are \"undifferentiated\" and in highly competitive markets. In this article, I discuss the biggest reason why I disagree and still view Axsome as a strong value play here.</p> <h3><strong>Axsome's AXS-05 Opportunity is Substantially Differentiated from Competitors</strong></h3> <p>I don't intend to completely re-review Axsome's pipeline in this article because I don't view anything beyond AXS-05 necessary for the specific thesis I'm presenting, but my prior article contains a more thorough summary if you want to refer back. The strength of the AXS-05 opportunity is the biggest reason why I view Axsome as a good opportunity at present.</p>\n<div></div> <p>AXS-05 is a combination of dextromethorphan (DM) and bupropion that brings something to the table that no current therapy does. DM is an NMDA receptor antagonist, a class of drugs that is fairly well-understood at this point. NMDA receptors have been investigated for their role in CNS disorders since at least the '80s. The difference here though is that the bupropion increases the bioavailability of the DM and thus enhances its potential treatment effects while the bupropion itself also inhibits reuptake of norepinephrine and dopamine. In fact, bupropion was originally marketed as an antidepressant by itself as Wellbutrin. Traditionally, DM has been used more as a cough suppressant than an anti-depressant due to the low bioavailability that Axsome aims to fix.</p> <p><img height=\"345\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/3/4562691-16017657321542857.png\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><strong>Figure 2:</strong> AXS-05 Combination Potential (<em>S</em><em>ource: Axsome's website</em>)</p> <p>As you can see in Figure 2, this unique combination of drugs has an impressive pharmacodynamic profile as compared to either alone. There is strong scientific rationale based on prior approved versions of these compounds or similar ones for AXS-05's three targeted indications and much more.</p> <p>The differentiation here is not just my opinion though. AXS-05 has received the FDA's breakthrough therapy designation for both major depressive disorder and Alzheimer's disease agitation. The FDA gives out such a designation only when \"preliminary clinical evidence that demonstrates the drug may have substantial improvement on at least one clinically significant endpoint over available therapy.\" This means that the FDA views AXS-05 as a large enough step forward in these two indications that the FDA is willing to give the company \"all of the fast track program…, more intensive FDA guidance on an efficient drug development program, an organizational commitment involving senior managers, and eligibility for rolling review and priority review.\"</p>\n<div></div> <p><img height=\"250\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/3/4562691-16017657337250683.png\" width=\"301\"/><img height=\"253\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/3/4562691-160176573493596.png\" width=\"321\"/></p> <p><strong>Figure 3:</strong> AXS-05 Late-Stage Trial Results for MDD (<em>Source: Axsome's 10-K for 2019</em>)</p> <p>Axsome has reported strong data in both indications to date. Figure 3 shows Phase 2 and 3 trial data in the MDD indication in which the company plans to file an NDA later this year. A Phase 3 will also likely be getting underway in relation to Alzheimer's disease agitation later this year after a successful meeting with FDA recently. Based on the clear differentiation and Axsome's positive clinical trial data, there is little reason to think AXS-05 will not get approved in the MDD indication, setting the company up to transition to commercial stage within the next 12 months.</p> <h3><strong>Axsome's Efficient Development and Spending Have Led to an <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDR.SI\">Incredible</a> Balance Sheet for a Clinical-Stage Company</strong></h3> <p>At the end of Q2, Axsome reported having $190.7 million in cash on hand which management viewed as lasting for another two years. With a cash burn rate of about $18 million in the quarter, this would imply about a 10-quarter runway, although cash burn will likely increase temporarily while the company starts to market its therapies. Axsome also only had $20 million in long-term debt. This burn rate is quite impressive given the number of late-stage therapies Axsome has and is far below what I have seen in analyzing many other similarly staged companies.</p> <p>Since the end of Q2, Axsome took another major step to ensure it has access to the capital it needs to finish developing and commercializing these late-stage therapies. On September 29, the company announced it had entered into an agreement with Hercules Capital for a $225 million term loan facility. $60 million of this was available at closing, and Axsome went ahead and drew $50 million of that, of which about $21.5 million went to repay the company's prior debt. $115 million of the total can be drawn in three tranches, contingent on the approvals of AXS-05 and AXS-07 and other sales related milestones. The last $50 million is subject to Hercules approval.</p>\n<div></div> <p>Axsome has to start repaying the loan in May 2023 with the full maturity date not coming until October 2025. The loan facility part of the deal is non-dilutive, but Axsome also issued a warrant for about 15k shares at an exercise price of $80.43. This will be dilutive to current shareholders if Hercules chooses to exercise it, but for a company with 37 million shares outstanding, a 15k share warrant is trivial.</p> <p>A lot of people view Hercules as a lender of last resort for the biotech sector, meaning that a company must not have been able to get funding from anywhere else if they take out a loan with Hercules. I'm not going to get into that in-depth here, but I will say that I don't see how that could be possible in Axsome's case given how well the company's management has handled its finances over the last few years. Because of this good stewardship of the company's funds, Axsome now has a cash runway into at least 2024 which is plenty of time for the company to build up a substantial amount of cash flow.</p> <p>This good cash management decreases, but does not entirely remove, the risk of dilution which is typically one of the biggest long-term risks to a biotech investor's capital. Although I do not view it as likely, if Axsome is unsuccessful in getting many of its therapies to market or if sales are far slower than expected, then even a large cash reserve like Axsome's could prove insufficient, leading the company to raise more dilutive funds that could substantially wipe out current shareholders.</p> <h3><strong>AXS-05 Alone More Than Supports the Company's Current Market Cap</strong></h3> <p>Axsome is drawing near to the point where it will transition from a clinical-stage to a commercial-stage company with two indications that will hopefully garner approval within the next year. The most important of these in my mind is AXS-05 for MDD.</p> <p><img height=\"145\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/3/4562691-16017657361307316.png\" width=\"624\"/></p>\n<div></div> <p><strong>Figure 4:</strong> AXS-05 Opportunity (<em>source: Axsome's September 2020 Corporate Presentation</em>)</p> <p>The current market cap after the recent sell-off is only about $2.63 billion. That's barely more than the combined low-end estimates for AXS-05 in MDD and Alzheimer's disease agitation alone and less than half of the combined high-end estimates. Given that a 5 P/S is about average for a commercial-stage biopharma, a strong argument could be made that AXS-05 in these two indications alone more than justify Axsome's current market cap. These estimates seem pretty reasonable for a major new therapy given that the overall market for depression therapies was over $15 billion in 2018 and that there are no currently approved therapies for Alzheimer's disease agitation. That's why the current market cap offers such a wide margin of safety.</p> <p><img height=\"168\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/3/4562691-16017657373468015.png\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><strong>Figure 5:</strong> Market Opportunities for AXS-07, AXS-12, and AXS-14 (<em>source: Axsome's September 2020 Corporate Presentation</em>)</p> <p>If you consider AXS-05 to justify at least the current market cap, then there is definitely substantial upside potential for Axsome in the rest of the pipeline. As you can see from Figure 5, Axsome views the rest of the pipeline as being a $1.5 billion to $3 billion opportunity. I agree with the Bank of America analyst that migraine treatment is an increasingly competitive market, but any niche that AXS-07 can carve out is ok by me given how wide a margin of safety I see for the company currently.</p> <p><img height=\"380\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/10/3/4562691-16017657384936738.png\" width=\"624\"/></p>\n<div></div> <p><strong>Figure 6:</strong> Axsome Upcoming Milestones (<em>Source: Axsome's September 2020 Corporate Presentation</em>)</p> <p>Also, although my focus is certainly much more on the long term, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see a resurgence in Axsome shares given the substantial amount of upcoming potential catalysts within the next few months as shown in Figure 6. All the way around, Axsome continues to execute and show progress in its pipeline development, yet the market has majorly backtracked on the value assigned to the company.</p>\n<span></span><span><p><span>The mismatch of a decreased price versus strengthened fundamentals that Axsome shows right now is perfectly in line with the type of opportunities that I cover in my newly launched Marketplace Service, <strong>Biotech Value Investing</strong>. This service provides in-depth coverage of my approach to finding high-quality, value-oriented companies in the biotech sector. Subscribers get my bi-weekly newsletter on value opportunities in the sector, my model portfolio, weekly deep-dive articles on portfolio companies and targets, and a much greater level of detail about my strategies for companies like Axsome. <em><strong>Check us out today with a free trial.</strong></em></span></p>\n</span><p><b>Disclosure:</b> <span>I am/we are long AXSM.</span> <span>I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.</span></p>\n<p><strong>Additional disclosure: </strong>I’m not a registered investment adviser. Please do not mistake this article, or anything else that I write or publish online, as any type of investment advice. This article and anything else that I post online are for entertainment purposes only and are solely designed to facilitate a discussion about investment strategy. I reserve the right to make any investment decision for myself without notification except where required by law. The thesis that I presented may change anytime due to the changing nature of information itself. Despite the fact that I strive to provide only accurate information, I neither guarantee the accuracy nor the timeliness of anything that I post. Past performance does NOT guarantee future results. Investment in stocks and options can result in a loss of capital. The information presented should NOT be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any form of security. Any buy or sell price that I may present is intended for educational and discussion purposes only. Please think of my articles as learning and thinking frameworks--they are not intended as investment advice. My articles should only be utilized as educational and informational materials to assist investors in your own due diligence process. You are expected to perform your own due diligence and take responsibility for your actions. You should consult with your own financial adviser for any financial or investment guidance, as again my writing is not investment advice and financial circumstances are individualized.</p>\n<div></div></div><div><div></div><span><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"5.799999713897705 7.799999237060547 20.30000114440918 16.39999771118164\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M26.1 9.7c-.7.3-1.5.6-2.4.7.9-.5 1.5-1.3 1.8-2.3-.8.5-1.7.8-2.6 1-.8-.8-1.8-1.3-3-1.3-2.3 0-4.1 1.9-4.1 4.1 0 .3 0 .6.1.9-3.4-.2-6.5-1.8-8.5-4.3-.4.7-.7 1.4-.7 2.1 0 1.4.7 2.7 1.8 3.4-.7 0-1.3-.2-1.9-.5v.1c0 2 1.4 3.7 3.3 4.1-.3.1-.7.1-1.1.1-.3 0-.5 0-.8-.1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.9 2.9-1.4 1.1-3.2 1.8-5.1 1.8-.3 0-.7 0-1-.1 1.8 1.2 4 1.9 6.4 1.9 7.6 0 11.8-6.3 11.8-11.8v-.5c.8-.6 1.5-1.3 2.1-2.2zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"18\" viewbox=\"11.000001907348633 6.799999713897705 9.999998092651367 18.600000381469727\" width=\"10\"><path d=\"M20.6 6.8h-2.4c-2.7 0-4.4 1.8-4.4 4.6v2.1h-2.4c-.2 0-.4.2-.4.4v3c0 .2.2.4.4.4h2.4V25c0 .2.2.4.4.4h3.1c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-7.7h2.8c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-3c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1-.2-.1-.3-.1h-2.8v-1.8c0-.9.2-1.3 1.3-1.3h1.6c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4V7.1c0-.2-.2-.3-.4-.3zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"6.200000286102295 6.699999809265137 19.5 18.700000762939453\" width=\"14\"><path d=\"M25.7 18.2v7.2h-4.2v-6.7c0-1.7-.6-2.8-2.1-2.8-1.2 0-1.8.8-2.1 1.5-.1.3-.1.6-.1 1v7H13s.1-11.4 0-12.6h4.2v1.8c.6-.9 1.5-2.1 3.8-2.1 2.7 0 4.7 1.8 4.7 5.7zM8.6 6.7c-1.4 0-2.4.9-2.4 2.2 0 1.2.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.5 0 2.4-1 2.4-2.2 0-1.2-.8-2.2-2.3-2.2zM6.5 25.4h4.2V12.8H6.5v12.6zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"4.5 6.499999523162842 22.900001525878906 18.999998092651367\" width=\"18\"><path d=\"M20.9 16.9c.1.2.1.3.1.5 0 .3-.1.6-.3.9-.2.2-.4.4-.7.5-.1 0-.3.1-.4.1-.3 0-.7-.1-.9-.3-.3-.2-.5-.5-.5-.8v-.3c0-.3.1-.6.3-.8.2-.2.4-.4.7-.5.2-.1.3-.1.5-.1.3 0 .6.1.8.3.1 0 .3.2.4.5zm-.9 3.7c-.1-.1-.3-.1-.4-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-1 .6-2.2.9-3.4.9-.9 0-1.8-.2-2.6-.6-.1 0-.3-.2-.4-.3-.1 0-.2-.1-.2-.1-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-.1.1-.2.1-.3.3-.1.1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .1 0 .2.1.4.1.1.1.2.3.3 1.1.8 2.5 1.1 3.8 1.1 1.2 0 2.4-.3 3.5-.8.1-.1.3-.2.5-.3.1-.1.2-.1.3-.2.1-.1.1-.2.2-.3v-.2c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3l-.3-.3zm-8-1.9c.2.1.3.1.5.1.4 0 .7-.2 1-.4.3-.2.5-.6.5-1v-.1c0-.4-.2-.7-.5-1-.3-.2-.6-.4-1-.4h-.3c-.5.1-.9.5-1.1 1 0 .1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .3.1.6.3.9.2.3.4.4.7.5zm15.4-3.6v.2c0 .6-.2 1.1-.5 1.5-.3.4-.7.8-1.1 1v.7c0 1.2-.4 2.4-1.1 3.3-1.3 1.8-3.4 2.8-5.4 3.3-1.1.3-2.2.4-3.4.4-1.7 0-3.4-.3-4.9-.9-1.6-.7-3.2-1.7-4.1-3.3-.5-.8-.8-1.8-.8-2.8v-.7c-.4-.2-.8-.6-1.1-1-.3-.4-.5-1-.5-1.5 0-.8.3-1.5.8-2s1.2-.9 2-.9h.2c.4 0 .8.1 1.1.2.3.1.6.3.9.5.1 0 .2-.1.3-.1 1.7-1 3.6-1.4 5.4-1.5 0-.9.1-1.9.6-2.7.4-.7 1-1.3 1.8-1.4.3-.1.6-.1.9-.1.8 0 1.6.2 2.3.5.3-.5.8-.9 1.3-1.1.3-.1.7-.2 1-.2.4 0 .7.1 1.1.2.5.2.9.5 1.2 1 .4.4.6.9.6 1.5v.3c-.1.7-.4 1.3-.9 1.7-.5.4-1.1.7-1.8.7H23c-.6 0-1.3-.4-1.7-.8-.4-.5-.7-1.1-.7-1.8v-.1c-.6-.3-1.3-.5-1.9-.5h-.3c-.5 0-.9.4-1.1.8-.3.6-.4 1.4-.4 2.1 1.8.1 3.7.6 5.3 1.5 0 0 .1 0 .1.1.1-.1.2-.2.4-.3.5-.3 1.1-.5 1.7-.5.3 0 .5 0 .8.1.6.2 1.1.5 1.5 1 .4.4.7 1 .7 1.6zm-5.4-6s0 .1 0 0c0 .4.2.7.4.9.2.2.5.4.8.4h.1c.3 0 .6-.1.9-.4.2-.2.4-.5.4-.8v-.1c0-.3-.2-.6-.4-.9-.2-.2-.6-.4-.9-.4H23c-.3.1-.5.2-.7.4-.2.4-.3.6-.3.9zm-13.6 5c-.2-.1-.5-.2-.8-.2h-.1c-.4 0-.7.2-1 .4-.3.3-.5.6-.5 1v.1c0 .2.1.5.2.7.1.2.2.3.3.4.5-1 1.2-1.8 1.9-2.4zm16.1 4.5c0-.8-.3-1.7-.8-2.3-1-1.3-2.4-2.2-4-2.7-.3-.1-.6-.2-.9-.2-.9-.3-1.9-.4-2.8-.4-1.2 0-2.5.2-3.7.6-1.5.5-3 1.4-4 2.7-.5.7-.8 1.5-.8 2.3 0 .3 0 .6.1.9.2.7.5 1.3 1 1.8.4.5 1 1 1.6 1.3.1.1.3.2.4.2 1.7.9 3.6 1.3 5.4 1.3h1c1.9-.2 3.8-.7 5.4-1.9.5-.4.9-.8 1.3-1.3s.6-1.1.7-1.7c0-.2.1-.4.1-.6zm1.5-3.3c0-.2 0-.4-.1-.6-.1-.3-.3-.5-.6-.6-.3-.1-.6-.2-.8-.2-.3 0-.5.1-.8.2.8.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.4.1-.1.3-.3.3-.4.1-.3.2-.6.2-.8zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"10\" viewbox=\"4.699999809265137 8.300000190734863 22.599998474121094 15.40000057220459\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M4.7 8.3v2.5L16 17l11.3-6.1V8.3H4.7zm0 3.7v11.7h22.6V12L16 18.1 4.7 12z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"87.43199920654297 227.56399536132812 422.6809997558594 382.7259826660156\" width=\"20\"><g><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><path d=\"M87.432,332.244v193.283h85.424v84.763h251.855v-84.763h85.402V332.244H87.432z M383.309,568.021H214.237 v-105.67h169.072V568.021z M464.543,418.101h-42.929v-42.929h42.929V418.101z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></g></g><rect fill=\"#FFFFFF\" height=\"84.536\" width=\"253.609\" x=\"175.93\" y=\"227.564\"></rect></g></svg></span></div></div></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Recent Sell-Off In Axsome Creates A Good Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Recent Sell-Off In Axsome Creates A Good Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-04 21:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377481-recent-sell-off-in-axsome-creates-good-opportunity><strong>Andy Jones</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAxsome already has positive Phase 3 data on its first therapy and should be submitting the NDA later this quarter.The company already had a cash runway through 2022 and now has put in place a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377481-recent-sell-off-in-axsome-creates-good-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AXSM":"Axsome Therapeutics, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4377481-recent-sell-off-in-axsome-creates-good-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2072085648","content_text":"SummaryAxsome already has positive Phase 3 data on its first therapy and should be submitting the NDA later this quarter.The company already had a cash runway through 2022 and now has put in place a credit facility that extends that out for the foreseeable future.Despite this progress, shares have dropped meaningfully, creating opportunity for the long-term investor.Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AXSM) was a huge gainer in 2019, but has struggled for much of 2020. I first purchased the stock at about $78 back in June around the time I first covered the company on Seeking Alpha. Since then, the company traded up into the mid-$80's before now ending up around $70. Figure 1: Axsome Stock Chart (Source: Finviz) This volatile ride might make one think that Axsome's performance has been uneven or had setbacks during the intervening months, but that isn't true at all. In fact, Axsome has continued to march towards its first product approvals while taking a mostly non-dilutive step to shore up its balance sheet for several years to come. Much of the negative sentiment of late seems to stem from a Bank of America analyst initiating coverage on Axsome as a sell, stating that its two likely 2021 launches will disappoint because the products are \"undifferentiated\" and in highly competitive markets. In this article, I discuss the biggest reason why I disagree and still view Axsome as a strong value play here. Axsome's AXS-05 Opportunity is Substantially Differentiated from Competitors I don't intend to completely re-review Axsome's pipeline in this article because I don't view anything beyond AXS-05 necessary for the specific thesis I'm presenting, but my prior article contains a more thorough summary if you want to refer back. The strength of the AXS-05 opportunity is the biggest reason why I view Axsome as a good opportunity at present.\n AXS-05 is a combination of dextromethorphan (DM) and bupropion that brings something to the table that no current therapy does. DM is an NMDA receptor antagonist, a class of drugs that is fairly well-understood at this point. NMDA receptors have been investigated for their role in CNS disorders since at least the '80s. The difference here though is that the bupropion increases the bioavailability of the DM and thus enhances its potential treatment effects while the bupropion itself also inhibits reuptake of norepinephrine and dopamine. In fact, bupropion was originally marketed as an antidepressant by itself as Wellbutrin. Traditionally, DM has been used more as a cough suppressant than an anti-depressant due to the low bioavailability that Axsome aims to fix. Figure 2: AXS-05 Combination Potential (Source: Axsome's website) As you can see in Figure 2, this unique combination of drugs has an impressive pharmacodynamic profile as compared to either alone. There is strong scientific rationale based on prior approved versions of these compounds or similar ones for AXS-05's three targeted indications and much more. The differentiation here is not just my opinion though. AXS-05 has received the FDA's breakthrough therapy designation for both major depressive disorder and Alzheimer's disease agitation. The FDA gives out such a designation only when \"preliminary clinical evidence that demonstrates the drug may have substantial improvement on at least one clinically significant endpoint over available therapy.\" This means that the FDA views AXS-05 as a large enough step forward in these two indications that the FDA is willing to give the company \"all of the fast track program…, more intensive FDA guidance on an efficient drug development program, an organizational commitment involving senior managers, and eligibility for rolling review and priority review.\"\n Figure 3: AXS-05 Late-Stage Trial Results for MDD (Source: Axsome's 10-K for 2019) Axsome has reported strong data in both indications to date. Figure 3 shows Phase 2 and 3 trial data in the MDD indication in which the company plans to file an NDA later this year. A Phase 3 will also likely be getting underway in relation to Alzheimer's disease agitation later this year after a successful meeting with FDA recently. Based on the clear differentiation and Axsome's positive clinical trial data, there is little reason to think AXS-05 will not get approved in the MDD indication, setting the company up to transition to commercial stage within the next 12 months. Axsome's Efficient Development and Spending Have Led to an Incredible Balance Sheet for a Clinical-Stage Company At the end of Q2, Axsome reported having $190.7 million in cash on hand which management viewed as lasting for another two years. With a cash burn rate of about $18 million in the quarter, this would imply about a 10-quarter runway, although cash burn will likely increase temporarily while the company starts to market its therapies. Axsome also only had $20 million in long-term debt. This burn rate is quite impressive given the number of late-stage therapies Axsome has and is far below what I have seen in analyzing many other similarly staged companies. Since the end of Q2, Axsome took another major step to ensure it has access to the capital it needs to finish developing and commercializing these late-stage therapies. On September 29, the company announced it had entered into an agreement with Hercules Capital for a $225 million term loan facility. $60 million of this was available at closing, and Axsome went ahead and drew $50 million of that, of which about $21.5 million went to repay the company's prior debt. $115 million of the total can be drawn in three tranches, contingent on the approvals of AXS-05 and AXS-07 and other sales related milestones. The last $50 million is subject to Hercules approval.\n Axsome has to start repaying the loan in May 2023 with the full maturity date not coming until October 2025. The loan facility part of the deal is non-dilutive, but Axsome also issued a warrant for about 15k shares at an exercise price of $80.43. This will be dilutive to current shareholders if Hercules chooses to exercise it, but for a company with 37 million shares outstanding, a 15k share warrant is trivial. A lot of people view Hercules as a lender of last resort for the biotech sector, meaning that a company must not have been able to get funding from anywhere else if they take out a loan with Hercules. I'm not going to get into that in-depth here, but I will say that I don't see how that could be possible in Axsome's case given how well the company's management has handled its finances over the last few years. Because of this good stewardship of the company's funds, Axsome now has a cash runway into at least 2024 which is plenty of time for the company to build up a substantial amount of cash flow. This good cash management decreases, but does not entirely remove, the risk of dilution which is typically one of the biggest long-term risks to a biotech investor's capital. Although I do not view it as likely, if Axsome is unsuccessful in getting many of its therapies to market or if sales are far slower than expected, then even a large cash reserve like Axsome's could prove insufficient, leading the company to raise more dilutive funds that could substantially wipe out current shareholders. AXS-05 Alone More Than Supports the Company's Current Market Cap Axsome is drawing near to the point where it will transition from a clinical-stage to a commercial-stage company with two indications that will hopefully garner approval within the next year. The most important of these in my mind is AXS-05 for MDD. \n Figure 4: AXS-05 Opportunity (source: Axsome's September 2020 Corporate Presentation) The current market cap after the recent sell-off is only about $2.63 billion. That's barely more than the combined low-end estimates for AXS-05 in MDD and Alzheimer's disease agitation alone and less than half of the combined high-end estimates. Given that a 5 P/S is about average for a commercial-stage biopharma, a strong argument could be made that AXS-05 in these two indications alone more than justify Axsome's current market cap. These estimates seem pretty reasonable for a major new therapy given that the overall market for depression therapies was over $15 billion in 2018 and that there are no currently approved therapies for Alzheimer's disease agitation. That's why the current market cap offers such a wide margin of safety. Figure 5: Market Opportunities for AXS-07, AXS-12, and AXS-14 (source: Axsome's September 2020 Corporate Presentation) If you consider AXS-05 to justify at least the current market cap, then there is definitely substantial upside potential for Axsome in the rest of the pipeline. As you can see from Figure 5, Axsome views the rest of the pipeline as being a $1.5 billion to $3 billion opportunity. I agree with the Bank of America analyst that migraine treatment is an increasingly competitive market, but any niche that AXS-07 can carve out is ok by me given how wide a margin of safety I see for the company currently. \n Figure 6: Axsome Upcoming Milestones (Source: Axsome's September 2020 Corporate Presentation) Also, although my focus is certainly much more on the long term, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see a resurgence in Axsome shares given the substantial amount of upcoming potential catalysts within the next few months as shown in Figure 6. All the way around, Axsome continues to execute and show progress in its pipeline development, yet the market has majorly backtracked on the value assigned to the company.\nThe mismatch of a decreased price versus strengthened fundamentals that Axsome shows right now is perfectly in line with the type of opportunities that I cover in my newly launched Marketplace Service, Biotech Value Investing. This service provides in-depth coverage of my approach to finding high-quality, value-oriented companies in the biotech sector. Subscribers get my bi-weekly newsletter on value opportunities in the sector, my model portfolio, weekly deep-dive articles on portfolio companies and targets, and a much greater level of detail about my strategies for companies like Axsome. Check us out today with a free trial.\nDisclosure: I am/we are long AXSM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.\nAdditional disclosure: I’m not a registered investment adviser. Please do not mistake this article, or anything else that I write or publish online, as any type of investment advice. This article and anything else that I post online are for entertainment purposes only and are solely designed to facilitate a discussion about investment strategy. I reserve the right to make any investment decision for myself without notification except where required by law. The thesis that I presented may change anytime due to the changing nature of information itself. Despite the fact that I strive to provide only accurate information, I neither guarantee the accuracy nor the timeliness of anything that I post. Past performance does NOT guarantee future results. Investment in stocks and options can result in a loss of capital. The information presented should NOT be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any form of security. Any buy or sell price that I may present is intended for educational and discussion purposes only. Please think of my articles as learning and thinking frameworks--they are not intended as investment advice. My articles should only be utilized as educational and informational materials to assist investors in your own due diligence process. You are expected to perform your own due diligence and take responsibility for your actions. You should consult with your own financial adviser for any financial or investment guidance, as again my writing is not investment advice and financial circumstances are individualized.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"content":"AXS-05针对症:major depressive disorder and Alzheimer's disease agitation","text":"AXS-05针对症:major depressive disorder and Alzheimer's disease agitation","html":"AXS-05针对症:major depressive disorder and Alzheimer's disease agitation"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973934906,"gmtCreate":1598420953505,"gmtModify":1704218759092,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>音乐消费意愿不断提高的长趋势下,从音乐厂牌的全包围式合作到音乐人的社区互动,从已占据占据数字专辑的绝大部分市场与建立厂牌花大价钱培养发掘新音乐人,包揽了最广泛音乐人,同时进行用户端体验创新形成TME live 现金牛,上下游融合的生态已初步显现。具有行业中最深刻优势且不断进行超前的优势构建,不断推动行业发生实际的改变,超高流量的降维打击,叠加用户增长的付费习惯的长期效应,TME基本已可成为称为区域王者。目前低估值尚未全面被认知","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>音乐消费意愿不断提高的长趋势下,从音乐厂牌的全包围式合作到音乐人的社区互动,从已占据占据数字专辑的绝大部分市场与建立厂牌花大价钱培养发掘新音乐人,包揽了最广泛音乐人,同时进行用户端体验创新形成TME live 现金牛,上下游融合的生态已初步显现。具有行业中最深刻优势且不断进行超前的优势构建,不断推动行业发生实际的改变,超高流量的降维打击,叠加用户增长的付费习惯的长期效应,TME基本已可成为称为区域王者。目前低估值尚未全面被认知","text":"$腾讯音乐(TME)$音乐消费意愿不断提高的长趋势下,从音乐厂牌的全包围式合作到音乐人的社区互动,从已占据占据数字专辑的绝大部分市场与建立厂牌花大价钱培养发掘新音乐人,包揽了最广泛音乐人,同时进行用户端体验创新形成TME live 现金牛,上下游融合的生态已初步显现。具有行业中最深刻优势且不断进行超前的优势构建,不断推动行业发生实际的改变,超高流量的降维打击,叠加用户增长的付费习惯的长期效应,TME基本已可成为称为区域王者。目前低估值尚未全面被认知","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973934906","repostId":"1143500663","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143500663","pubTimestamp":1597244472,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143500663?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-12 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"腾讯音乐难撼","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143500663","media":"数娱梦工厂","summary":"在内容优势上无法撼动的腾讯音乐,已将目标投向了全新的维度。\n8月11日,腾讯音乐娱乐集团宣布与环球音乐集团续签数年期版权授权战略合作协议。这样一来,环球曲库的内容将继续可全面应用于QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、","content":"<p>在内容优势上无法撼动的腾讯音乐,已将目标投向了全新的维度。</p>\n<p>8月11日,腾讯音乐娱乐集团宣布与环球音乐集团续签数年期版权授权战略合作协议。这样一来,环球曲库的内容将继续可全面应用于QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、酷我音乐以及全民K歌等腾讯音乐旗下平台。</p>\n<p>尽管同天其他平台也宣布了与环球音乐版权合作,但明眼人都能看出来,腾讯音乐和环球的这份合作显然更具有标杆意义——双方不只是版权授权,还宣布将合资成立音乐厂牌,共同挖掘和培养新兴音乐人,携手打造“潮流音乐新物种”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/732ed8ac9f31259666ef1d27d1e8be2b\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"568\"></p>\n<p>尽管受到疫情影响,腾讯音乐上半年业绩却逆势创下了新高。根据8月11日收盘后发布的Q2财报数据,腾讯音乐二季度总营收增长至69.3亿元,超出华尔街的预期。</p>\n<p>尤其值得注意的是,其Q2在线音乐订阅收入和付费用户数量双双同比大涨,在线音乐付费用户再次创创新高。付费率更是首次破7,7.2%的在线音乐服务付费率,比去年Q2的4.8%同比大幅提升。</p>\n<p>一个是国内在线音乐市场举足轻重的玩家,一个是坐拥Taylor Swift、Ariana Grande、张学友、陈奕迅、张惠妹等中外巨星歌曲版权的全球最大唱片公司,此次新合作的意义显然超出一个合作厂牌本身。</p>\n<p><b>进入新阶段,再单纯强调版权数量多少已经是过去时,新的时代需要新的内容,这需要平台积极探索出全新的增长空间。在这一点上,领先者腾讯音乐再一次看向了未来。</b></p>\n<p>在线下演出停摆的这大半年,腾讯音乐围绕数字音乐、粉丝社区做出了新花样,还推出了将线下演出与线上观看互动体验结合的超现场品牌TME live,刘若英、《想见你》OST、五月天、陈奕迅等大咖的音乐会在朋友圈频频刷屏,可以说是短短三四个月的时间内创造了一个全新的品牌。</p>\n<p>TME live从无到有、拓展长音频、深耕独立音乐人,与丰华、摩登天空、果然、新海诚动画音乐版权方CoMix Wave Films等多元音乐内容的补充……随着中国在线音乐平台竞争进入新阶段,腾讯音乐内容积累的广度和厚度已经进入到更全面的维度。</p>\n<p><b>国民平台联手国际巨头合资音乐厂牌</b></p>\n<p><b>内容格局再次升维</b></p>\n<p>如果此前有所关注都会注意到,与环球音乐合资音乐厂牌,其实是腾讯音乐前瞻性布局后的自然结果,并非一蹴而就。</p>\n<p>早在2017年,腾讯音乐就与环球音乐签订了中国大陆数字版权分销的战略性合作协议。此次续签的版权合作,正是对上一轮版权协定到期的延续。</p>\n<p>面对手握大量热门歌曲的唱片巨头,平台间的争抢不可避免。因此腾讯音乐早已经在思索如何能站在更高维度进行建设,力图创造“增量”,而不是停留在争抢已有盘子的层面。</p>\n<p>2020年Q2,腾讯音乐战略投资了环球音乐集团和华纳音乐,从版权授权深入到业务协同和内容价值的共创层面,实现了与内容方的强强联合。</p>\n<p>很显然,能够接连入股两大国际顶尖唱片公司,这样的合作深度是国内其他平台所不具备的。</p>\n<p>如今双方的关系还将继续深入。根据8月11日的官宣,腾讯音乐与环球音乐将成立合资音乐厂牌融合国际唱片公司的全球化资源与互联网音乐生态的独特优势,共同挖掘和培养新兴音乐人,携手创造更多经典流行音乐内容。</p>\n<p>腾讯音乐娱乐集团首席执行官彭迦信认为,此次与环球音乐的合作会成为“多赢合作的范本”。因为他相信,双方在挖掘音乐内容价值和构建音乐生态等方面的目标是高度一致的。</p>\n<p>这一厂牌能够问世,给腾讯音乐旗下几大国民平台带来了极具想象力的增长空间。</p>\n<p>腾讯音乐将继续利用自身在中国市场的全面优势,在QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、酷我音乐三大平台发行UMG全球优质曲库内容,环球音乐在腾讯音乐的授权还包括腾讯音乐旗下的在线K歌平台——全民K歌,以及在线音乐直播平台等更丰富的应用场景,这将为TME全平台用户提供更完善、多元的音乐娱乐体验。</p>\n<p>此次合资建立厂牌,也正是腾讯音乐与环球音乐为行业探路的又一次尝试。</p>\n<p>随着在线音乐行业用户规模稳定下来,各大音乐平台的版权内容也已经从前几年的无序走向了相对稳定的格局。拼抢版权最好的窗口期已经过去,音乐行业的竞争上升到新的维度,这就要求平台更积极深入地参与到音乐市场新增长空间的开拓中去。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16247f55fe27c8a72fde6f587bb0d05f\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"796\"></p>\n<p>腾讯音乐此前与索尼音乐合资创立的电音厂牌Liquid State,证明了这一探索方向的可行性。</p>\n<p>该厂牌发掘的首位华语艺人CORSAK胡梦周,签约短短两年时间已经成为国内年轻电子音乐人的代表人物,热门单曲《溯 Reverse》更是实现了10亿流媒体播放认证的成绩。</p>\n<p>而面对已出道的顶尖艺人,这一合资厂牌背靠腾讯音乐的海量用户和充沛资源也能提供更多支持。包括Alan Walker、The Chainsmokers等国际知名电子音乐人此前都先后入驻Liquid State,为其提升人气的同时还给音乐人带来更多机遇。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7cff90f1cd923a6545b4a18e783976c\" tg-width=\"372\" tg-height=\"259\"></p>\n<p>目前还不确定腾讯音乐与环球音乐的合资厂牌会瞄准什么领域。但可以确定的是,拥有更多大牌歌手资源的环球音乐,与已经探索出一定门道的腾讯音乐,将给行业带来更有启发性的新玩法。</p>\n<p>腾讯音乐娱乐集团副总裁、内容合作部负责人潘才俊就表示,希望能与环球音乐共同开创具有标杆性、范本式的战略合作新模式。</p>\n<p>凭借腾讯音乐最广泛的用户群体和最具创新力的产品矩阵、特别是在年轻用户市场中的优势,腾讯音乐将与环球在内容制作能力和全球资源方面进行优势互补,打造深受年轻用户喜爱并具有全球引领性的潮流音乐作品。</p>\n<p><b>付费率破7!</b></p>\n<p><b>用户攀升的付费意愿是中国音乐增长的底气</b></p>\n<p>腾讯音乐能够大胆尝试更深入的合作方式,是建立在中国在线音乐用户付费意愿持续向好的基础上的。</p>\n<p>根据国际唱片协会(IFPI) 今年5月发布的2020全球音乐报告,2019年中国市场年增幅高达16%,增幅在整个亚洲名列前茅。</p>\n<p>目前中国市场全球排名第七,与排名第六的韩国市场差距已经非常小。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daf1ff04cb6d5fde386aaf4ea28c6fae\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"354\"></p>\n<p>而根据IFPI报告,中国音乐市场规模提升,很大程度上是依靠近两年的订阅付费和数字音乐销售的增长实现的,这当中腾讯音乐对于用户付费习惯的建立可以说是功不可没。</p>\n<p>自2014年,腾讯音乐与周杰伦推出第一张数字专辑以来,6年过去,数字专辑已经成为乐迷支持偶像的方式,也成为众多歌手发行新歌新专辑的标配。最早周杰伦《哎呦不错哦》20元的定价实现17万张的销量,而今年上半年,国内共计已经发售数字专辑62张,总体销售额突破3亿元。而腾讯音乐占了大多数,旗下三大音乐平台(QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、酷我音乐)销售额占比78%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f321b420103c5304f6fd3b2ba5067819\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"690\"></p>\n<p>上述惊人成绩,是靠腾讯音乐三大平台的用户实现的。</p>\n<p><b>而在订阅付费方面,腾讯音乐也已经培育出了国内最成熟的音乐付费用户群体。</b></p>\n<p>根据8月11日公布的Q2财报数据,腾讯音乐二季度在线音乐付费用户达到4170万,同比增长51.9%,在线音乐订阅收入13.1亿元,同比增长64.7%。付费用户在今年Q1同比增长50.4%的基础上再度创下增幅新纪录。在线音乐服务付费率更是从去年同期的4.8%大幅提高到7.2%,首度破7。</p>\n<p>这样的成绩足以说明,尽管目前中国音乐市场整体的付费水平相比欧美市场还有提升空间,但用户的付费意愿其实是积极的。</p>\n<p>要提升用户的付费意愿,前提是建立了完备的付费音乐生态基础。</p>\n<p>这方面正是腾讯音乐的优势:目前腾讯音乐月活用户稳定在超8亿的水平上,用户能够享受超过4000万的正版曲库,覆盖了国内外大部分知名音乐厂牌。而全民K歌这一在线唱歌应用的巨大成功,也给用户在腾讯音乐体系增加付费意愿带来了更多理由,更是成为竞争对手的模仿对象。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5e5f09b650ece1f7ec2c799173c08d4\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"596\">腾讯音乐2019年Q2至今在线音乐付费用户数据</p>\n<p>这样的优势地位,决定了腾讯音乐有能力、有资格来引导中国在线音乐市场脱离单纯的版权抬价竞争,进入到更为良性的运营环境中。</p>\n<p>如何在进一步引导国内用户提升付费意愿的同时,探索全新的合作模式、构建新的付费增长点,这才是新一阶段最考验平台能力的地方。腾讯音乐与环球音乐此次合作引发的想象空间就在于此。</p>\n<p><b>模式创新</b></p>\n<p><b>成为乐迷与音乐人的心头好</b></p>\n<p>事实上,即便是在疫情期间,腾讯音乐也并没有坐等市场回暖,而是主动出击开拓新模式玩法,以满足歌迷和音乐人两端的需求。</p>\n<p>一方面,腾讯音乐在疫情期间积极尝试开拓多种全新的运营方式。</p>\n<p>当中最成功的莫过于备受各方好评的TME live。从今年3月杨丞琳的《删·拾以后》线上音乐会开始,TME live接连吸引了刘若英、徐佳莹、伍佰、五月天、陈奕迅、张杰、周深、张韶涵、陈立农等一大批华语音乐人开唱,此外还吸引了花泽香菜、Tomorrowland等海外艺人和音乐品牌方合作。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0d758e07c6127f3812fed5f0329e45\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"533\"></p>\n<p>不同于普通的在家手机录播线上音乐会,TME live拿出了可售票演唱会级别的线下演出水准,将其与平台擅长的在线互动体验相结合,在短短几个月的时间内就成长为一个成熟的品牌。从刘若英的剧场独唱,到《想见你》剧组与伍佰齐上阵,从空荡体育馆包场万人体育场的五月天,到面朝日出日落而歌的陈奕迅,几乎每个月都有一场TME live的线上音乐会在朋友圈里刷屏。</p>\n<p>对于既有服务,腾讯音乐也进行了产品升级,通过强化社区化运营等方式强化歌迷的互动体验。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc80038576f5897509f66b7b1870595\" tg-width=\"452\" tg-height=\"313\"></p>\n<p>这当中大牌明星空降评论区的玩法QQ音乐已经玩得越来越娴熟。今年5月关晓彤被JustinBieber翻牌的消息更是登上了热搜。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b230731f8bd93de9e764ac750cb449f9\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"472\"></p>\n<p>用彭迦信的话来说,<b>“对于顶尖艺人而言,我们的平台不仅是发行数字专辑的首选,也是与乐迷实时互动的独特渠道。”</b></p>\n<p>前不久,腾讯音乐旗下的QQ音乐宣布推出扑通社区,将明星空降的玩法常态化固定下来,同时为粉丝提供更多与偶像连接的机会。按照Q2财报的说法,这一社区启动以来DAU渗透率已经呈现出稳定增长态势。</p>\n<p>除此之外,腾讯音乐也强化了长音频内容的探索,上半年长音频内容授权作品数量同比增长了近300%,二季度长音频MAU渗透率因此提高到了9.4%,远高于去年同期的4.6%。</p>\n<p>具有诚意的产品运营,对用户和音乐人两端都形成了巨大吸引力。</p>\n<p>面对用户、歌迷,腾讯音乐拿出了更多元的产品形态、更丰富的互动体验,为用户增加使用时间、提升付费意愿都做出了铺垫。</p>\n<p>而面对音乐人和唱片公司一方,腾讯音乐则展现了大平台的积极姿态:并不依靠版权坐等用户上门,而是不断先行于市场一步,探索音乐市场更多商业化运营的可能性。</p>\n<p>这当中一些尝试已经显现出商业价值。今年4月徐佳莹的TME live音乐会,就吸引了Bose的独家冠名,腾讯音乐为品牌提供了预约入口、宣传片、口播、定制礼物、歌手使用产品等一系列场景化营销的资源。而到了张韶涵的TME live线上音乐会,腾讯音乐更是开展了电影院包场乐迷观演活动,为品牌宣传活动提供了更多的空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79a4ab88dd4bbae125e0c8729a19f97\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"596\"></p>\n<p>R1SE在6月举行的2020周年庆生会上,TME live还首次面向VIP会员尝试了专场。可以说,TME live商业化运营的潜力已经得到了品牌方以及付费用户的初步认可。</p>\n<p>此外在长音频方面,腾讯音乐推出了付费订阅服务,开始探索其商业化空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826f26905432ce788b59ae361171712f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<p>在用户付费意愿继续攀升的大背景下,升级内容格局,配合不断探索的创新模式,决定了腾讯音乐在中国音乐市场的领先地位依然难以撼动。</p>","source":"lsy1568773178773","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>腾讯音乐难撼</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n腾讯音乐难撼\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-12 23:01 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yAopzdRDAEqSbbS07uaQKw><strong>数娱梦工厂</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在内容优势上无法撼动的腾讯音乐,已将目标投向了全新的维度。\n8月11日,腾讯音乐娱乐集团宣布与环球音乐集团续签数年期版权授权战略合作协议。这样一来,环球曲库的内容将继续可全面应用于QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、酷我音乐以及全民K歌等腾讯音乐旗下平台。\n尽管同天其他平台也宣布了与环球音乐版权合作,但明眼人都能看出来,腾讯音乐和环球的这份合作显然更具有标杆意义——双方不只是版权授权,还宣布将合资成立音乐厂牌,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yAopzdRDAEqSbbS07uaQKw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06c120bbb961941a6910f63352c38f2b","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yAopzdRDAEqSbbS07uaQKw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143500663","content_text":"在内容优势上无法撼动的腾讯音乐,已将目标投向了全新的维度。\n8月11日,腾讯音乐娱乐集团宣布与环球音乐集团续签数年期版权授权战略合作协议。这样一来,环球曲库的内容将继续可全面应用于QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、酷我音乐以及全民K歌等腾讯音乐旗下平台。\n尽管同天其他平台也宣布了与环球音乐版权合作,但明眼人都能看出来,腾讯音乐和环球的这份合作显然更具有标杆意义——双方不只是版权授权,还宣布将合资成立音乐厂牌,共同挖掘和培养新兴音乐人,携手打造“潮流音乐新物种”。\n\n尽管受到疫情影响,腾讯音乐上半年业绩却逆势创下了新高。根据8月11日收盘后发布的Q2财报数据,腾讯音乐二季度总营收增长至69.3亿元,超出华尔街的预期。\n尤其值得注意的是,其Q2在线音乐订阅收入和付费用户数量双双同比大涨,在线音乐付费用户再次创创新高。付费率更是首次破7,7.2%的在线音乐服务付费率,比去年Q2的4.8%同比大幅提升。\n一个是国内在线音乐市场举足轻重的玩家,一个是坐拥Taylor Swift、Ariana Grande、张学友、陈奕迅、张惠妹等中外巨星歌曲版权的全球最大唱片公司,此次新合作的意义显然超出一个合作厂牌本身。\n进入新阶段,再单纯强调版权数量多少已经是过去时,新的时代需要新的内容,这需要平台积极探索出全新的增长空间。在这一点上,领先者腾讯音乐再一次看向了未来。\n在线下演出停摆的这大半年,腾讯音乐围绕数字音乐、粉丝社区做出了新花样,还推出了将线下演出与线上观看互动体验结合的超现场品牌TME live,刘若英、《想见你》OST、五月天、陈奕迅等大咖的音乐会在朋友圈频频刷屏,可以说是短短三四个月的时间内创造了一个全新的品牌。\nTME live从无到有、拓展长音频、深耕独立音乐人,与丰华、摩登天空、果然、新海诚动画音乐版权方CoMix Wave Films等多元音乐内容的补充……随着中国在线音乐平台竞争进入新阶段,腾讯音乐内容积累的广度和厚度已经进入到更全面的维度。\n国民平台联手国际巨头合资音乐厂牌\n内容格局再次升维\n如果此前有所关注都会注意到,与环球音乐合资音乐厂牌,其实是腾讯音乐前瞻性布局后的自然结果,并非一蹴而就。\n早在2017年,腾讯音乐就与环球音乐签订了中国大陆数字版权分销的战略性合作协议。此次续签的版权合作,正是对上一轮版权协定到期的延续。\n面对手握大量热门歌曲的唱片巨头,平台间的争抢不可避免。因此腾讯音乐早已经在思索如何能站在更高维度进行建设,力图创造“增量”,而不是停留在争抢已有盘子的层面。\n2020年Q2,腾讯音乐战略投资了环球音乐集团和华纳音乐,从版权授权深入到业务协同和内容价值的共创层面,实现了与内容方的强强联合。\n很显然,能够接连入股两大国际顶尖唱片公司,这样的合作深度是国内其他平台所不具备的。\n如今双方的关系还将继续深入。根据8月11日的官宣,腾讯音乐与环球音乐将成立合资音乐厂牌融合国际唱片公司的全球化资源与互联网音乐生态的独特优势,共同挖掘和培养新兴音乐人,携手创造更多经典流行音乐内容。\n腾讯音乐娱乐集团首席执行官彭迦信认为,此次与环球音乐的合作会成为“多赢合作的范本”。因为他相信,双方在挖掘音乐内容价值和构建音乐生态等方面的目标是高度一致的。\n这一厂牌能够问世,给腾讯音乐旗下几大国民平台带来了极具想象力的增长空间。\n腾讯音乐将继续利用自身在中国市场的全面优势,在QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、酷我音乐三大平台发行UMG全球优质曲库内容,环球音乐在腾讯音乐的授权还包括腾讯音乐旗下的在线K歌平台——全民K歌,以及在线音乐直播平台等更丰富的应用场景,这将为TME全平台用户提供更完善、多元的音乐娱乐体验。\n此次合资建立厂牌,也正是腾讯音乐与环球音乐为行业探路的又一次尝试。\n随着在线音乐行业用户规模稳定下来,各大音乐平台的版权内容也已经从前几年的无序走向了相对稳定的格局。拼抢版权最好的窗口期已经过去,音乐行业的竞争上升到新的维度,这就要求平台更积极深入地参与到音乐市场新增长空间的开拓中去。\n\n腾讯音乐此前与索尼音乐合资创立的电音厂牌Liquid State,证明了这一探索方向的可行性。\n该厂牌发掘的首位华语艺人CORSAK胡梦周,签约短短两年时间已经成为国内年轻电子音乐人的代表人物,热门单曲《溯 Reverse》更是实现了10亿流媒体播放认证的成绩。\n而面对已出道的顶尖艺人,这一合资厂牌背靠腾讯音乐的海量用户和充沛资源也能提供更多支持。包括Alan Walker、The Chainsmokers等国际知名电子音乐人此前都先后入驻Liquid State,为其提升人气的同时还给音乐人带来更多机遇。\n\n目前还不确定腾讯音乐与环球音乐的合资厂牌会瞄准什么领域。但可以确定的是,拥有更多大牌歌手资源的环球音乐,与已经探索出一定门道的腾讯音乐,将给行业带来更有启发性的新玩法。\n腾讯音乐娱乐集团副总裁、内容合作部负责人潘才俊就表示,希望能与环球音乐共同开创具有标杆性、范本式的战略合作新模式。\n凭借腾讯音乐最广泛的用户群体和最具创新力的产品矩阵、特别是在年轻用户市场中的优势,腾讯音乐将与环球在内容制作能力和全球资源方面进行优势互补,打造深受年轻用户喜爱并具有全球引领性的潮流音乐作品。\n付费率破7!\n用户攀升的付费意愿是中国音乐增长的底气\n腾讯音乐能够大胆尝试更深入的合作方式,是建立在中国在线音乐用户付费意愿持续向好的基础上的。\n根据国际唱片协会(IFPI) 今年5月发布的2020全球音乐报告,2019年中国市场年增幅高达16%,增幅在整个亚洲名列前茅。\n目前中国市场全球排名第七,与排名第六的韩国市场差距已经非常小。\n\n而根据IFPI报告,中国音乐市场规模提升,很大程度上是依靠近两年的订阅付费和数字音乐销售的增长实现的,这当中腾讯音乐对于用户付费习惯的建立可以说是功不可没。\n自2014年,腾讯音乐与周杰伦推出第一张数字专辑以来,6年过去,数字专辑已经成为乐迷支持偶像的方式,也成为众多歌手发行新歌新专辑的标配。最早周杰伦《哎呦不错哦》20元的定价实现17万张的销量,而今年上半年,国内共计已经发售数字专辑62张,总体销售额突破3亿元。而腾讯音乐占了大多数,旗下三大音乐平台(QQ音乐、酷狗音乐、酷我音乐)销售额占比78%。\n\n上述惊人成绩,是靠腾讯音乐三大平台的用户实现的。\n而在订阅付费方面,腾讯音乐也已经培育出了国内最成熟的音乐付费用户群体。\n根据8月11日公布的Q2财报数据,腾讯音乐二季度在线音乐付费用户达到4170万,同比增长51.9%,在线音乐订阅收入13.1亿元,同比增长64.7%。付费用户在今年Q1同比增长50.4%的基础上再度创下增幅新纪录。在线音乐服务付费率更是从去年同期的4.8%大幅提高到7.2%,首度破7。\n这样的成绩足以说明,尽管目前中国音乐市场整体的付费水平相比欧美市场还有提升空间,但用户的付费意愿其实是积极的。\n要提升用户的付费意愿,前提是建立了完备的付费音乐生态基础。\n这方面正是腾讯音乐的优势:目前腾讯音乐月活用户稳定在超8亿的水平上,用户能够享受超过4000万的正版曲库,覆盖了国内外大部分知名音乐厂牌。而全民K歌这一在线唱歌应用的巨大成功,也给用户在腾讯音乐体系增加付费意愿带来了更多理由,更是成为竞争对手的模仿对象。\n腾讯音乐2019年Q2至今在线音乐付费用户数据\n这样的优势地位,决定了腾讯音乐有能力、有资格来引导中国在线音乐市场脱离单纯的版权抬价竞争,进入到更为良性的运营环境中。\n如何在进一步引导国内用户提升付费意愿的同时,探索全新的合作模式、构建新的付费增长点,这才是新一阶段最考验平台能力的地方。腾讯音乐与环球音乐此次合作引发的想象空间就在于此。\n模式创新\n成为乐迷与音乐人的心头好\n事实上,即便是在疫情期间,腾讯音乐也并没有坐等市场回暖,而是主动出击开拓新模式玩法,以满足歌迷和音乐人两端的需求。\n一方面,腾讯音乐在疫情期间积极尝试开拓多种全新的运营方式。\n当中最成功的莫过于备受各方好评的TME live。从今年3月杨丞琳的《删·拾以后》线上音乐会开始,TME live接连吸引了刘若英、徐佳莹、伍佰、五月天、陈奕迅、张杰、周深、张韶涵、陈立农等一大批华语音乐人开唱,此外还吸引了花泽香菜、Tomorrowland等海外艺人和音乐品牌方合作。\n\n不同于普通的在家手机录播线上音乐会,TME live拿出了可售票演唱会级别的线下演出水准,将其与平台擅长的在线互动体验相结合,在短短几个月的时间内就成长为一个成熟的品牌。从刘若英的剧场独唱,到《想见你》剧组与伍佰齐上阵,从空荡体育馆包场万人体育场的五月天,到面朝日出日落而歌的陈奕迅,几乎每个月都有一场TME live的线上音乐会在朋友圈里刷屏。\n对于既有服务,腾讯音乐也进行了产品升级,通过强化社区化运营等方式强化歌迷的互动体验。\n\n这当中大牌明星空降评论区的玩法QQ音乐已经玩得越来越娴熟。今年5月关晓彤被JustinBieber翻牌的消息更是登上了热搜。\n\n用彭迦信的话来说,“对于顶尖艺人而言,我们的平台不仅是发行数字专辑的首选,也是与乐迷实时互动的独特渠道。”\n前不久,腾讯音乐旗下的QQ音乐宣布推出扑通社区,将明星空降的玩法常态化固定下来,同时为粉丝提供更多与偶像连接的机会。按照Q2财报的说法,这一社区启动以来DAU渗透率已经呈现出稳定增长态势。\n除此之外,腾讯音乐也强化了长音频内容的探索,上半年长音频内容授权作品数量同比增长了近300%,二季度长音频MAU渗透率因此提高到了9.4%,远高于去年同期的4.6%。\n具有诚意的产品运营,对用户和音乐人两端都形成了巨大吸引力。\n面对用户、歌迷,腾讯音乐拿出了更多元的产品形态、更丰富的互动体验,为用户增加使用时间、提升付费意愿都做出了铺垫。\n而面对音乐人和唱片公司一方,腾讯音乐则展现了大平台的积极姿态:并不依靠版权坐等用户上门,而是不断先行于市场一步,探索音乐市场更多商业化运营的可能性。\n这当中一些尝试已经显现出商业价值。今年4月徐佳莹的TME live音乐会,就吸引了Bose的独家冠名,腾讯音乐为品牌提供了预约入口、宣传片、口播、定制礼物、歌手使用产品等一系列场景化营销的资源。而到了张韶涵的TME live线上音乐会,腾讯音乐更是开展了电影院包场乐迷观演活动,为品牌宣传活动提供了更多的空间。\n\nR1SE在6月举行的2020周年庆生会上,TME live还首次面向VIP会员尝试了专场。可以说,TME live商业化运营的潜力已经得到了品牌方以及付费用户的初步认可。\n此外在长音频方面,腾讯音乐推出了付费订阅服务,开始探索其商业化空间。\n\n在用户付费意愿继续攀升的大背景下,升级内容格局,配合不断探索的创新模式,决定了腾讯音乐在中国音乐市场的领先地位依然难以撼动。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":948340155,"gmtCreate":1595257326277,"gmtModify":1704208289232,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"从产品角度的理解和对疫苗研发技术的熟悉,对生物技术行业的研究和筛选,至关重要","listText":"从产品角度的理解和对疫苗研发技术的熟悉,对生物技术行业的研究和筛选,至关重要","text":"从产品角度的理解和对疫苗研发技术的熟悉,对生物技术行业的研究和筛选,至关重要","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/948340155","repostId":"2051293196","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2051293196","pubTimestamp":1594906918,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2051293196?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-16 21:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"My COVID-19 Vaccine Report Card","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2051293196","media":"Biologics","summary":"The COVID-19 pandemic has created a gold-rush on vaccine stocks. Many of the small-cap biotech and pharmaceutical companies have experienced 1000%+ gains as investors speculative who will be first.I have been lucky to have several of these tickers in my speculative portfolio. I take a look at Novavax, Altimmune, NantKwest, VBI Vaccines, and Dynavax.I review these companies' vaccine candidates and discuss why I am still bullish on these names.I grade these investments and provide my views about the COVID-19 vaccine race.","content":"<html><body><div><div><div><div>Summary</div><div><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has created a gold-rush on vaccine stocks. Many of the small-cap biotech and pharmaceutical companies have experienced 1000%+ gains as investors speculative who will be first.</p><p>I have been lucky to have several of these tickers in my speculative portfolio. I take a look at Novavax, Altimmune, NantKwest, VBI Vaccines, and Dynavax.</p><p>I review these companies' vaccine candidates and discuss why I am still bullish on these names.</p><p>I grade these investments and provide my views about the COVID-19 vaccine race.</p></div></div></div><div><p>The healthcare sector has benefited from the biotech and pharmaceutical industry's efforts to develop COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines. Most of the big pharma companies have stepped up and led the way with antivirals, antibodies, and are committed to producing millions of doses of their vaccine. As a result, some of these companies have had their tickers see a bump in their share price. However, it has been the smaller biotech and pharmaceutical companies that have seen huge gains in their share price as investors speculate on their COVID-19 programs and candidates. As a speculative biotech investor, I have been fortunate to have some of these big winners such as Novavax (NVAX), Altimmune (ALT), VBI Vaccines (VBIV), NantKwest (NK), and Dynavax (DVAX) in a speculative portfolio. I believe all of these tickers still have significant upside potential as we move deeper into the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for multiple vaccines increases.</p> <p>I intend to review these companies and discuss their COVID-19 efforts thus far. In addition, I examine the market's reaction to their COVID-19 programs and why certain tickers are leaders or laggards. Finally, I grade these COVID-19 vaccine tickers and provide my final thoughts about how investors should monitor these vaccine programs.</p> <h2><strong>Novavax</strong></h2> <p>Novavax is perhaps the best example of a \"COVID-19 play\" due to the stock rising up over 2500% since my last NVAX article. There have been numerous vaccine companies going after a COVID-19 vaccine, but Novavax was one the first publicly traded companies to announce an initiation of a program and moved quickly to get their pre-clinical work completed. The company's efforts produced, NVX‑CoV2373, Novavax's lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate which revealed \"high immunogenicity and high levels of neutralizing antibodies\" in pre-clinical testing. As a result, the company initiated a Phase I/II clinical trial to evaluate NVX‑CoV2373's immunogenicity and safety in both an adjuvanted with Matrix‑M and unadjuvanted versions. If the trial is successful, the company expects to quickly move the vaccine into a Phase III trial.</p>\n<div></div> <p>I decided to accumulate a sizable position in anticipation of a successful Phase III NanoFlu study in Q1, but the reaction from the COVID-19 vaccine program has far exceeded my expectations for NVAX. Admittedly, I took off the majority of that position once I was up 1000% to ensure a profit and allow me to sleep at night, but now I am watching the stock more than double in the past few weeks as the company signs agreements and secures up to $1.6B in funding from Operation Warp Speed. In addition, the company has already signed a deal with the Department of <span>Defense. Despite my long-term bullish outlook for NVAX, I am stunned to see the stock run from roughly $4 per share to over $100 per share (Figure 1). The bulls keep on trampling over the bears as the company continues to move closer to a data readout for the COVID-19 vaccine candidate in July and a NanoFlu BLA submission later this year.</span></p> <p><img height=\"368\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-1594873023045969.jpg\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 1: NVAX Daily (</em><em>Source: Trendspider</em><em>)</em></p> <p>If the data is good we could see a new 52-week high and another bear massacre, however, we might see an equivalent reaction in the other direction if the data is lackluster. Consequently, I am going to wait and see what the Phase I/II data shows before making any other moves.</p> <p>Long-term, Novavax investors should remain focused on NanoFlu's potential FDA approval and what the company is going to do with their maternal RSV vaccine, ResVax. I'm not downplaying the importance of the COVID-19 vaccine, but the company's other vaccine candidates should be factored into your investment thesis.</p> <h2><strong>Altimmune</strong></h2> <p>Altimmune has been one of my love/hate speculative biotech plays over the past couple of years for a number of reasons. Altimmune's nasal vaccine technology has created some impressive vaccine product candidates for the flu (NasoVax) and anthrax (NasoShield) that have posted superior results to contemporary vaccines. However, the company has had some unclear data in their NasoShield and they have also failed to find a partner for NasoVax to help finish out the regulatory pathway. In addition, the company was slowly moving away from vaccine development and focusing on their hepatology and oncology candidates. My ALT thesis was based around their vaccine technology and I had accumulated a large position in anticipation NasoVax would become a leading flu vaccine. So, when the company started the transition away from vaccines I started to debate on whether to stay on board or jump ship. At first, Altimmune was sitting on the sidelines for the COVID-19 pandemic, and I was frustrated because I knew Altimmune's vaccine technology would produce a viable candidate with some superior abilities over the traditional vaccines. First and foremost, is the nasal administration, which allows for the potential for self-administration and increased mucosal immunity. In addition, the company's rAd vector technology will allow the vaccine to be a single-dose vaccine that could be stored at room temperature. Thankfully, they eventually decided to join the battle with their nasal vaccine candidate AdCOVID and even added their T-COVID therapeutic for early treatment of COVID-19.</p>\n<div></div> <p><img height=\"268\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-1594873025031807.jpg\" width=\"623\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 2: AdCOVID vs Other Vaccines (Source: ALT)</em></p> <p>Now, that the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading the need for both mass vaccinations and mass treatments, I believe Altimmune's product candidates could be a superior vaccine. I instantly envisioned AdCOVID being shipped directly to the population which will eliminate the need for people to be exposed to a doctor's offices and also eliminate the expenses of recruiting medical professionals to administer a vaccine.</p> <p>Altimmune recently reported pre-clinical AdCOVID data that revealed \"showed strong serum neutralizing activity and potent mucosal immunity in the respiratory tract. The induction of IgA antibody in the respiratory tract may be necessary to block both infection and transmission of the virus to prevent further spread of COVID-19.\" AdCOVID's single-dose stimulated a robust systemic antibody reaction, reaching serum IgG antibody concentrations in excess of 800 μg/mL at 14 days from the administration. Furthermore, AdCOVID developed 1:320 serum viral neutralization titers by Day 28, which is 2x greater than the FDA's marks for COVID-19 convalescent plasma. What is more, a single intranasal dose of AdCOVID stimulated a 29-fold induction of mucosal IgA in the bronchoalveolar fluid of vaccinated mice, which is superior to other known mucosal vaccines.</p> <p>So, it appears the preclinical data supports the potential for AdCOVID to be a top-tier vaccine that is essentially perfect for a mass vaccination campaign in a pandemic. Unfortunately, the company won't be starting a human trial until later this year, which puts them well behind the big players. In addition, the company has not received a large amount of government funding, so the company had to execute a secondary offering.</p>\n<div></div> <p>However, the company teamed up with DynPort Vaccine Company \"DVC\", which a General Dynamics (GD) company, to provide program management and help secure government funding. It appears DVC is the perfect company to work with and has the right connections to help AdCOVID get across the finish line (Figure 3)</p> <p><img height=\"256\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-15948730255192907.jpg\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 3: DVC Abilities (Source: DVC)</em></p> <p>The stock has been surging after every news update and hit $33.30 for a fresh 52-week high despite the secondary offering (Figure 4). Perhaps ALT is finally getting some respect and is finally moving away from penny stock status?</p> <p><img height=\"343\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-1594873026072387.jpg\" width=\"623\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 4: ALT Daily (Source: Trendspider)</em></p> <p>The upside from the COVID-19 programs could be immense and the company's impressive pipeline holds some intriguing product candidates (Figure 5).</p> <p><img height=\"254\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-1594873026633302.jpg\" width=\"623\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 5: ALT Pipeline (Source: ALT)</em></p> <p>To sum it up, this is Altimmune's moment…and the management appears to be making the right moves and is working hard to execute on their initiatives to get both AdCOVID and T-COVID to the masses. Furthermore, I hope to see the company find a partner for NasoVax, which is the Influenza version of AdCOVID. The company hasn't signed a partnership to finish NasoVax's regulatory path but I am eager to see if the increased attention from their COVID-19 efforts has some parties interested in helping Altimmune out. Long-term, I believe Altimmune's vaccine technology and pipeline potential allows for continued upside.</p>\n<div></div> <h2><strong>NantKwest</strong></h2> <p>NantKwest was flying under the radar for a couple of months, but a recent oncology readout and COVID-19 program announcements have delivered new 52-week highs for the stock (Figure 6).</p> <p><img height=\"369\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-15948730277160487.jpg\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 6: NK Daily (</em><em>Source: Trendspider</em><em>)</em></p> <p>NantKwest's natural killer \"NK\" cell therapies is being tested in a broad array of diseases, including COVID-19. Recently, the company announced a collaboration with a fellow NantWorks company, ImmunityBio, where ImmunityBio will center on the progress of a vaccine and natural killer cell activation, with their immunomodulators. At the same time, NantKwest will be developing their off-the-shelf, cell-based therapeutics for COVID-19. The NantWorks collaboration has yielded \"immunomodulator regimens\" for COVID-19 for mild, moderate, severe, and critically ill state (Figure 7).</p> <p><img height=\"324\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-1594873024561867.jpg\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 7: NantWorks COVID-19 Programs (</em><em>Source: NantKwest</em><em>)</em></p> <p>ImmunityBio's COVID-19 vaccine candidate uses a next-gen Ad5 platform that will yield a vector that is immunologically \"quiet\" and will target both the spike \"S\" protein and the nucleocapsid \"N\" protein that should encourage antigen-specific T-cell immunity. This is the only recognized COVID-19 vaccine candidate that is pursuing both proteins and could deliver an extended immunity to the virus when matched against other vaccines.</p> <p>I believe NantKwest's NK cell technology and collaboration will produce impressive COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines. The company's CEO, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, has a strong history of discovering and developing exceptional therapeutics, so I am banking on NantKwest yielding superior COVID-19 products. The government hasn't stepped up to NantKwest and provided the company with significant financial support, which has kept the stock under the radar…however, I am expecting the government to start spreading the wealth in the coming weeks and months as the pressure rises due to the number of cases increases in the United States. However, I wouldn't bet against, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, so I expect the company to move ahead with or without Warp Speed.</p>\n<div></div> <h2><strong>VBI Vaccines</strong></h2> <p>VBI Vaccines is finally starting to get some attention from the market and the stock is gaining some traction. My original investment thesis was valued based on when the stock was trading around $0.50 per share and the company was preparing to release fresh data on their hepatitis B vaccine, Sci-B-Vac. The company did report impressive data that showed that Sci-B-Vac hit all primary and secondary endpoints and no safety signals were observed. In addition, the Sci-B-Vac outperformed GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) Engerix in several categories including Seroprotection (Figure 8).</p> <p><img height=\"317\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-15948730283036234.jpg\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 8: Sci-B-Vac vs. Engerix (Source: VBIV)</em></p> <p>This data will allow the company to start submitting their applications for approval towards the end of 2020, with a potential approval in 2021. So, my thesis worked out and I was willing to wait for an approval. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and VBI jumped into the mix when they announced their pan-coronavirus vaccine candidate, VBI-2901. VBI's coronavirus vaccine is a multivalent vaccine that includes spike proteins from SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV (Figure 9), which could generate a broad array of reactive antibodies, which may deliver protection from mutated strains of the coronavirus.</p> <p><img height=\"359\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-15948730245096273.jpg\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 9: Pan-Coronavirus Structure. Source: VBIV</em></p> <p>Out of all of the known COVID-19 vaccines in development right now, I believe VBI is the only one working on a pan-coronavirus multivalent vaccine. This makes VBI-2901 a potential game-changer because of the possibility that COVID-19 might become endemic and find ways to mutate into seasonal strains that will make the current vaccines obsolete. The other vaccines in could make it all the way through the regulatory process to find out that COVID-19 is now COVID-20. VBI-2901 might be the only vaccine that could be effective against a drifted COVID-19. It is possible that COVID-19 becomes endemic, which will force health organizations to look for an annual multivalent vaccine, which will most likely favor VBI-2901's design.</p>\n<div></div> <p>So far, the company has already partnered with the National Research Council of Canada, \"NRC,\" to bring a candidate to the clinic in Q4 2020. Unfortunately, we haven't seen any pre-clinical data for VBI-2901, so we can't get too excited. However, the market has been infusing money into the ticker which is up about 1000% from my VBIV article (Figure 10).</p> <p><img height=\"344\" 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width=\"624\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 10: VBIV Daily (Source: Trendspider)</em></p> <p>It will be interesting to see if VBIV can keep up the momentum but investors need to remain vigilant for updates on VBI-2901, Sci-B-Vac, and the company's pipeline programs (Figure 11).</p> <p><img height=\"362\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-15948730292973123.jpg\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 11: VBIV Pipeline (Source: VBIV)</em></p> <h2><strong>Dynavax</strong></h2> <p>Despite having several COVID-19 collaborations, Dynavax Technologies has been one of the laggards of the COVID-19 plays. Indeed, the stock has seen a strong from its 52-week lows (Figure 12) but the stock is not experiencing the same hype as other vaccine companies. I have to assume the lack of respect is due to the company not having their own COVID-19 vaccine but has signed collaborations for use of their TLR9 CpG 1018 adjuvant that they used in their hepatitis B vaccine, HEPLISAV-B. The addition of CpG 1018 in vaccines is expected to increase antibodies, CD4+, and CD8+ T cell populations and produces vigorous T and B cell memory reactions. This T cell response makes CpG 1018 one of the adjuvant's of choice because it could be a single-dose vaccine. As a result, CpG 1018 is being used in several COVID-19 vaccines candidates from all over the world, including,</p>\n<div></div> <ul> <li> University of Queensland in Australia</li> <li> Clover Biopharmaceuticals in China</li> <li> Sinovac Pharmaceuticals in China</li> <li> Medicago in Canada</li> </ul> <p>Yet, DVAX is struggling to hit $10 per share? Dynavax's adjuvant might be used in millions of vaccines around the world but the market either isn't aware, or it doesn't care.</p> <p><img height=\"368\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/7/16/48523746-15948730297233698.jpg\" width=\"624\"/></p> <p><em>Figure 12: DVAX Daily (</em><em>Source: Trendspider</em><em>)</em></p> <p>I have to assume the Street believes that the financials of providing an adjuvant is not the same as developing the vaccine. However, the number of deals could provide Dynavax with several revenue sources, while limiting the downside risk of regulatory failure and expenses.</p> <p>Long-term DVAX investors should focus on the company's HEPLISAV-B numbers and what the company intends to do with their mothballed oncology candidates, including SD-101.</p> <h2><strong>Grading These Tickers</strong></h2> <p><strong>Novavax:</strong> Overall, NVAX has been a home run of an investment and I still see NVAX to be bullish simply on momentum and its ability to close deals with the Department of Defense and Operation Warp Speed. However, investors need to keep a close eye on the clinical data for NVX‑CoV2373 and how it stacks up against other early vaccine players.</p> <p><strong>Altimmune:</strong> Altimmune was slow out of the gates but the company has worked hard to formulate a COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic. Their recent collaboration with DVC has provided me with some confidence that they will get some government funding and will quickly get AdCOVID in the clinic. I was very close to ditching my ALT position but the COVID-19 pandemic has showcased the company's vaccine technology that could produce a vaccine that is perfect for a mass vaccination campaign. My original investment thesis has been revitalized and the stock is up over 1000% since my last addition, so I have to say ALT has been another home run investment.</p>\n<div></div> <p><strong>NantKwest:</strong> Once again, NantKwest has developed a potentially leading therapeutic by employing their NK cells but instead of cancer, the company is taking on COVID-19. NantKwest is collaborating with a fellow NantWorks company, ImmunityBio, to produce a potentially superior COVID-19 vaccine that targets both the S and N proteins of the virus. Sadly, the government and health agencies haven't recognized or respected NantKwest's efforts and the stock hasn't experienced the same level of hype as other COVID-19 plays. Indeed, the stock is up nearly 900% from my first NK article, so I have to be happy with the results, still, I am disappointed that the market is still not giving it the admiration it deserves. However, if the company reports preclinical data that reveals their vaccine and therapeutic is superior to the competition, we could witness a rotation into NK.</p> <p><strong>VBI Vaccines:</strong> VBI's vaccine offers a multivalent vaccine that includes the spike proteins from SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV, which generate a broad defense from mutated strains of COVID-19. If there is data that shows that COVID-19 is turning into a COVID-20 or COVID-21, there will be doubts that the current lot of vaccines will not be as effective against the mutated strain. If this occurs I suspect the market will be on the lookout for a vaccine that is capable of dealing with a new endemic virus and VBI-2901 might be the answer. Admittedly, I didn't expect VBIV to be up over 800% since my first article, but I am glad to see VBIV getting some love from the market and could be a big winner if we a mutation in the virus.</p> <p><strong>Dynavax:</strong> Has been one of my worst investments for number of reasons. Primarily, the company essentially destroyed my investment thesis focused on SD-101 and I was left with HEPLISAV-B, a pertussis pre-clinical candidate, and an adjuvant. Luckily, multiple pharmaceutical companies have tapped Dynavax to use their adjuvant for their COVID-19 vaccines, so the ticker has received some attention from the market to get me back above water…but I am not seeing the surge we are witnessing in the other names. However, I suspect <span>one of the company's partnerships will get their vaccine approved to market and DVAX will finally start gathering some steam.</span></p>\n<div></div> <h2><strong>Final Thoughts On COVID-19 Vaccine</strong></h2> <p>The COVID-19 vaccine \"race\" is a dynamic event that has numerous classes, lanes, and heats to run before we have a winner. Consequently, I suggest vaccine investors to sit down and determine where their investment is in this race. Were they an early player like NVAX? Are they part of Operation Warp Speed like NVAX? Is their vaccine unique like ALT, NK, or VBIV? Do they have partners to help them get across the finish line like NVAX, ALT, and DVAX have? If you can answer yes to these types of questions, the company could endure the increased volatility in the coming months as some companies report initial trial results and move closer to being approved. I believe the first vaccine to be approved is not going to offer the best efficacy or safety profile, or be able to manufacture in mass quantity, or will require multiple doses; or a variety of other characteristics. This leaves the door open to other vaccines to fill in the gaps or perhaps overtake the first-to-market vaccine as the standard-of-care vaccine. These opportunities will only multiply if COVID-19 becomes COVID-20 and this type of coronavirus becomes endemic to the human species. At that point, you will need a variety of different vaccines and companies to address the issues that will arise with dealing with a mutating virus that is spreading to all corners of the globe because no one will have an immunity. Therefore, the COVID-19 vaccine race is not over until the virus has been eradicated and the threat of a resurgence has been eliminated. Obviously, that is not going to happen anytime soon, so I expect these tickers to remain \"in-play\" for at least the remainder of 2020.</p>\n<span></span><p><b>Disclosure:</b> <span>I am/we are long NVAX, ALT, NK, VBIV, DVAX.</span> <span>I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.</span></p></div><div><div></div><span><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"5.799999713897705 7.799999237060547 20.30000114440918 16.39999771118164\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M26.1 9.7c-.7.3-1.5.6-2.4.7.9-.5 1.5-1.3 1.8-2.3-.8.5-1.7.8-2.6 1-.8-.8-1.8-1.3-3-1.3-2.3 0-4.1 1.9-4.1 4.1 0 .3 0 .6.1.9-3.4-.2-6.5-1.8-8.5-4.3-.4.7-.7 1.4-.7 2.1 0 1.4.7 2.7 1.8 3.4-.7 0-1.3-.2-1.9-.5v.1c0 2 1.4 3.7 3.3 4.1-.3.1-.7.1-1.1.1-.3 0-.5 0-.8-.1.5 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.9 2.9-1.4 1.1-3.2 1.8-5.1 1.8-.3 0-.7 0-1-.1 1.8 1.2 4 1.9 6.4 1.9 7.6 0 11.8-6.3 11.8-11.8v-.5c.8-.6 1.5-1.3 2.1-2.2zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"18\" viewbox=\"11.000001907348633 6.799999713897705 9.999998092651367 18.600000381469727\" width=\"10\"><path d=\"M20.6 6.8h-2.4c-2.7 0-4.4 1.8-4.4 4.6v2.1h-2.4c-.2 0-.4.2-.4.4v3c0 .2.2.4.4.4h2.4V25c0 .2.2.4.4.4h3.1c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-7.7h2.8c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4v-3c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1-.2-.1-.3-.1h-2.8v-1.8c0-.9.2-1.3 1.3-1.3h1.6c.2 0 .4-.2.4-.4V7.1c0-.2-.2-.3-.4-.3zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"16\" viewbox=\"6.200000286102295 6.699999809265137 19.5 18.700000762939453\" width=\"14\"><path d=\"M25.7 18.2v7.2h-4.2v-6.7c0-1.7-.6-2.8-2.1-2.8-1.2 0-1.8.8-2.1 1.5-.1.3-.1.6-.1 1v7H13s.1-11.4 0-12.6h4.2v1.8c.6-.9 1.5-2.1 3.8-2.1 2.7 0 4.7 1.8 4.7 5.7zM8.6 6.7c-1.4 0-2.4.9-2.4 2.2 0 1.2.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.5 0 2.4-1 2.4-2.2 0-1.2-.8-2.2-2.3-2.2zM6.5 25.4h4.2V12.8H6.5v12.6zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"4.5 6.499999523162842 22.900001525878906 18.999998092651367\" width=\"18\"><path d=\"M20.9 16.9c.1.2.1.3.1.5 0 .3-.1.6-.3.9-.2.2-.4.4-.7.5-.1 0-.3.1-.4.1-.3 0-.7-.1-.9-.3-.3-.2-.5-.5-.5-.8v-.3c0-.3.1-.6.3-.8.2-.2.4-.4.7-.5.2-.1.3-.1.5-.1.3 0 .6.1.8.3.1 0 .3.2.4.5zm-.9 3.7c-.1-.1-.3-.1-.4-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-1 .6-2.2.9-3.4.9-.9 0-1.8-.2-2.6-.6-.1 0-.3-.2-.4-.3-.1 0-.2-.1-.2-.1-.1 0-.2-.1-.3-.1-.1 0-.2 0-.3.1-.1.1-.2.1-.3.3-.1.1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .1 0 .2.1.4.1.1.1.2.3.3 1.1.8 2.5 1.1 3.8 1.1 1.2 0 2.4-.3 3.5-.8.1-.1.3-.2.5-.3.1-.1.2-.1.3-.2.1-.1.1-.2.2-.3v-.2c0-.1 0-.2-.1-.3l-.3-.3zm-8-1.9c.2.1.3.1.5.1.4 0 .7-.2 1-.4.3-.2.5-.6.5-1v-.1c0-.4-.2-.7-.5-1-.3-.2-.6-.4-1-.4h-.3c-.5.1-.9.5-1.1 1 0 .1-.1.3-.1.4 0 .3.1.6.3.9.2.3.4.4.7.5zm15.4-3.6v.2c0 .6-.2 1.1-.5 1.5-.3.4-.7.8-1.1 1v.7c0 1.2-.4 2.4-1.1 3.3-1.3 1.8-3.4 2.8-5.4 3.3-1.1.3-2.2.4-3.4.4-1.7 0-3.4-.3-4.9-.9-1.6-.7-3.2-1.7-4.1-3.3-.5-.8-.8-1.8-.8-2.8v-.7c-.4-.2-.8-.6-1.1-1-.3-.4-.5-1-.5-1.5 0-.8.3-1.5.8-2s1.2-.9 2-.9h.2c.4 0 .8.1 1.1.2.3.1.6.3.9.5.1 0 .2-.1.3-.1 1.7-1 3.6-1.4 5.4-1.5 0-.9.1-1.9.6-2.7.4-.7 1-1.3 1.8-1.4.3-.1.6-.1.9-.1.8 0 1.6.2 2.3.5.3-.5.8-.9 1.3-1.1.3-.1.7-.2 1-.2.4 0 .7.1 1.1.2.5.2.9.5 1.2 1 .4.4.6.9.6 1.5v.3c-.1.7-.4 1.3-.9 1.7-.5.4-1.1.7-1.8.7H23c-.6 0-1.3-.4-1.7-.8-.4-.5-.7-1.1-.7-1.8v-.1c-.6-.3-1.3-.5-1.9-.5h-.3c-.5 0-.9.4-1.1.8-.3.6-.4 1.4-.4 2.1 1.8.1 3.7.6 5.3 1.5 0 0 .1 0 .1.1.1-.1.2-.2.4-.3.5-.3 1.1-.5 1.7-.5.3 0 .5 0 .8.1.6.2 1.1.5 1.5 1 .4.4.7 1 .7 1.6zm-5.4-6s0 .1 0 0c0 .4.2.7.4.9.2.2.5.4.8.4h.1c.3 0 .6-.1.9-.4.2-.2.4-.5.4-.8v-.1c0-.3-.2-.6-.4-.9-.2-.2-.6-.4-.9-.4H23c-.3.1-.5.2-.7.4-.2.4-.3.6-.3.9zm-13.6 5c-.2-.1-.5-.2-.8-.2h-.1c-.4 0-.7.2-1 .4-.3.3-.5.6-.5 1v.1c0 .2.1.5.2.7.1.2.2.3.3.4.5-1 1.2-1.8 1.9-2.4zm16.1 4.5c0-.8-.3-1.7-.8-2.3-1-1.3-2.4-2.2-4-2.7-.3-.1-.6-.2-.9-.2-.9-.3-1.9-.4-2.8-.4-1.2 0-2.5.2-3.7.6-1.5.5-3 1.4-4 2.7-.5.7-.8 1.5-.8 2.3 0 .3 0 .6.1.9.2.7.5 1.3 1 1.8.4.5 1 1 1.6 1.3.1.1.3.2.4.2 1.7.9 3.6 1.3 5.4 1.3h1c1.9-.2 3.8-.7 5.4-1.9.5-.4.9-.8 1.3-1.3s.6-1.1.7-1.7c0-.2.1-.4.1-.6zm1.5-3.3c0-.2 0-.4-.1-.6-.1-.3-.3-.5-.6-.6-.3-.1-.6-.2-.8-.2-.3 0-.5.1-.8.2.8.7 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.4.1-.1.3-.3.3-.4.1-.3.2-.6.2-.8zm0 0\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"10\" viewbox=\"4.699999809265137 8.300000190734863 22.599998474121094 15.40000057220459\" width=\"16\"><path d=\"M4.7 8.3v2.5L16 17l11.3-6.1V8.3H4.7zm0 3.7v11.7h22.6V12L16 18.1 4.7 12z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></svg><svg height=\"14\" viewbox=\"87.43199920654297 227.56399536132812 422.6809997558594 382.7259826660156\" width=\"20\"><g><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><g><rect fill=\"none\" height=\"42.929\" width=\"42.929\" x=\"421.615\" y=\"375.172\"></rect><path d=\"M87.432,332.244v193.283h85.424v84.763h251.855v-84.763h85.402V332.244H87.432z M383.309,568.021H214.237 v-105.67h169.072V568.021z M464.543,418.101h-42.929v-42.929h42.929V418.101z\" fill=\"#FFFFFF\"></path></g></g><rect fill=\"#FFFFFF\" height=\"84.536\" width=\"253.609\" x=\"175.93\" y=\"227.564\"></rect></g></svg></span></div></div></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>My COVID-19 Vaccine Report Card</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMy COVID-19 Vaccine Report Card\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-16 21:41 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4358803-covidminus-19-vaccine-report-card><strong>Biologics</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe COVID-19 pandemic has created a gold-rush on vaccine stocks. Many of the small-cap biotech and pharmaceutical companies have experienced 1000%+ gains as investors speculative who will be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4358803-covidminus-19-vaccine-report-card\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DVAX":"德纳维制药","ALT":"Altimmune, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4358803-covidminus-19-vaccine-report-card","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2051293196","content_text":"SummaryThe COVID-19 pandemic has created a gold-rush on vaccine stocks. Many of the small-cap biotech and pharmaceutical companies have experienced 1000%+ gains as investors speculative who will be first.I have been lucky to have several of these tickers in my speculative portfolio. I take a look at Novavax, Altimmune, NantKwest, VBI Vaccines, and Dynavax.I review these companies' vaccine candidates and discuss why I am still bullish on these names.I grade these investments and provide my views about the COVID-19 vaccine race.The healthcare sector has benefited from the biotech and pharmaceutical industry's efforts to develop COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines. Most of the big pharma companies have stepped up and led the way with antivirals, antibodies, and are committed to producing millions of doses of their vaccine. As a result, some of these companies have had their tickers see a bump in their share price. However, it has been the smaller biotech and pharmaceutical companies that have seen huge gains in their share price as investors speculate on their COVID-19 programs and candidates. As a speculative biotech investor, I have been fortunate to have some of these big winners such as Novavax (NVAX), Altimmune (ALT), VBI Vaccines (VBIV), NantKwest (NK), and Dynavax (DVAX) in a speculative portfolio. I believe all of these tickers still have significant upside potential as we move deeper into the COVID-19 pandemic and the need for multiple vaccines increases. I intend to review these companies and discuss their COVID-19 efforts thus far. In addition, I examine the market's reaction to their COVID-19 programs and why certain tickers are leaders or laggards. Finally, I grade these COVID-19 vaccine tickers and provide my final thoughts about how investors should monitor these vaccine programs. Novavax Novavax is perhaps the best example of a \"COVID-19 play\" due to the stock rising up over 2500% since my last NVAX article. There have been numerous vaccine companies going after a COVID-19 vaccine, but Novavax was one the first publicly traded companies to announce an initiation of a program and moved quickly to get their pre-clinical work completed. The company's efforts produced, NVX‑CoV2373, Novavax's lead COVID-19 vaccine candidate which revealed \"high immunogenicity and high levels of neutralizing antibodies\" in pre-clinical testing. As a result, the company initiated a Phase I/II clinical trial to evaluate NVX‑CoV2373's immunogenicity and safety in both an adjuvanted with Matrix‑M and unadjuvanted versions. If the trial is successful, the company expects to quickly move the vaccine into a Phase III trial.\n I decided to accumulate a sizable position in anticipation of a successful Phase III NanoFlu study in Q1, but the reaction from the COVID-19 vaccine program has far exceeded my expectations for NVAX. Admittedly, I took off the majority of that position once I was up 1000% to ensure a profit and allow me to sleep at night, but now I am watching the stock more than double in the past few weeks as the company signs agreements and secures up to $1.6B in funding from Operation Warp Speed. In addition, the company has already signed a deal with the Department of Defense. Despite my long-term bullish outlook for NVAX, I am stunned to see the stock run from roughly $4 per share to over $100 per share (Figure 1). The bulls keep on trampling over the bears as the company continues to move closer to a data readout for the COVID-19 vaccine candidate in July and a NanoFlu BLA submission later this year. Figure 1: NVAX Daily (Source: Trendspider) If the data is good we could see a new 52-week high and another bear massacre, however, we might see an equivalent reaction in the other direction if the data is lackluster. Consequently, I am going to wait and see what the Phase I/II data shows before making any other moves. Long-term, Novavax investors should remain focused on NanoFlu's potential FDA approval and what the company is going to do with their maternal RSV vaccine, ResVax. I'm not downplaying the importance of the COVID-19 vaccine, but the company's other vaccine candidates should be factored into your investment thesis. Altimmune Altimmune has been one of my love/hate speculative biotech plays over the past couple of years for a number of reasons. Altimmune's nasal vaccine technology has created some impressive vaccine product candidates for the flu (NasoVax) and anthrax (NasoShield) that have posted superior results to contemporary vaccines. However, the company has had some unclear data in their NasoShield and they have also failed to find a partner for NasoVax to help finish out the regulatory pathway. In addition, the company was slowly moving away from vaccine development and focusing on their hepatology and oncology candidates. My ALT thesis was based around their vaccine technology and I had accumulated a large position in anticipation NasoVax would become a leading flu vaccine. So, when the company started the transition away from vaccines I started to debate on whether to stay on board or jump ship. At first, Altimmune was sitting on the sidelines for the COVID-19 pandemic, and I was frustrated because I knew Altimmune's vaccine technology would produce a viable candidate with some superior abilities over the traditional vaccines. First and foremost, is the nasal administration, which allows for the potential for self-administration and increased mucosal immunity. In addition, the company's rAd vector technology will allow the vaccine to be a single-dose vaccine that could be stored at room temperature. Thankfully, they eventually decided to join the battle with their nasal vaccine candidate AdCOVID and even added their T-COVID therapeutic for early treatment of COVID-19.\n Figure 2: AdCOVID vs Other Vaccines (Source: ALT) Now, that the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading the need for both mass vaccinations and mass treatments, I believe Altimmune's product candidates could be a superior vaccine. I instantly envisioned AdCOVID being shipped directly to the population which will eliminate the need for people to be exposed to a doctor's offices and also eliminate the expenses of recruiting medical professionals to administer a vaccine. Altimmune recently reported pre-clinical AdCOVID data that revealed \"showed strong serum neutralizing activity and potent mucosal immunity in the respiratory tract. The induction of IgA antibody in the respiratory tract may be necessary to block both infection and transmission of the virus to prevent further spread of COVID-19.\" AdCOVID's single-dose stimulated a robust systemic antibody reaction, reaching serum IgG antibody concentrations in excess of 800 μg/mL at 14 days from the administration. Furthermore, AdCOVID developed 1:320 serum viral neutralization titers by Day 28, which is 2x greater than the FDA's marks for COVID-19 convalescent plasma. What is more, a single intranasal dose of AdCOVID stimulated a 29-fold induction of mucosal IgA in the bronchoalveolar fluid of vaccinated mice, which is superior to other known mucosal vaccines. So, it appears the preclinical data supports the potential for AdCOVID to be a top-tier vaccine that is essentially perfect for a mass vaccination campaign in a pandemic. Unfortunately, the company won't be starting a human trial until later this year, which puts them well behind the big players. In addition, the company has not received a large amount of government funding, so the company had to execute a secondary offering.\n However, the company teamed up with DynPort Vaccine Company \"DVC\", which a General Dynamics (GD) company, to provide program management and help secure government funding. It appears DVC is the perfect company to work with and has the right connections to help AdCOVID get across the finish line (Figure 3) Figure 3: DVC Abilities (Source: DVC) The stock has been surging after every news update and hit $33.30 for a fresh 52-week high despite the secondary offering (Figure 4). Perhaps ALT is finally getting some respect and is finally moving away from penny stock status? Figure 4: ALT Daily (Source: Trendspider) The upside from the COVID-19 programs could be immense and the company's impressive pipeline holds some intriguing product candidates (Figure 5). Figure 5: ALT Pipeline (Source: ALT) To sum it up, this is Altimmune's moment…and the management appears to be making the right moves and is working hard to execute on their initiatives to get both AdCOVID and T-COVID to the masses. Furthermore, I hope to see the company find a partner for NasoVax, which is the Influenza version of AdCOVID. The company hasn't signed a partnership to finish NasoVax's regulatory path but I am eager to see if the increased attention from their COVID-19 efforts has some parties interested in helping Altimmune out. Long-term, I believe Altimmune's vaccine technology and pipeline potential allows for continued upside.\n NantKwest NantKwest was flying under the radar for a couple of months, but a recent oncology readout and COVID-19 program announcements have delivered new 52-week highs for the stock (Figure 6). Figure 6: NK Daily (Source: Trendspider) NantKwest's natural killer \"NK\" cell therapies is being tested in a broad array of diseases, including COVID-19. Recently, the company announced a collaboration with a fellow NantWorks company, ImmunityBio, where ImmunityBio will center on the progress of a vaccine and natural killer cell activation, with their immunomodulators. At the same time, NantKwest will be developing their off-the-shelf, cell-based therapeutics for COVID-19. The NantWorks collaboration has yielded \"immunomodulator regimens\" for COVID-19 for mild, moderate, severe, and critically ill state (Figure 7). Figure 7: NantWorks COVID-19 Programs (Source: NantKwest) ImmunityBio's COVID-19 vaccine candidate uses a next-gen Ad5 platform that will yield a vector that is immunologically \"quiet\" and will target both the spike \"S\" protein and the nucleocapsid \"N\" protein that should encourage antigen-specific T-cell immunity. This is the only recognized COVID-19 vaccine candidate that is pursuing both proteins and could deliver an extended immunity to the virus when matched against other vaccines. I believe NantKwest's NK cell technology and collaboration will produce impressive COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines. The company's CEO, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, has a strong history of discovering and developing exceptional therapeutics, so I am banking on NantKwest yielding superior COVID-19 products. The government hasn't stepped up to NantKwest and provided the company with significant financial support, which has kept the stock under the radar…however, I am expecting the government to start spreading the wealth in the coming weeks and months as the pressure rises due to the number of cases increases in the United States. However, I wouldn't bet against, Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, so I expect the company to move ahead with or without Warp Speed.\n VBI Vaccines VBI Vaccines is finally starting to get some attention from the market and the stock is gaining some traction. My original investment thesis was valued based on when the stock was trading around $0.50 per share and the company was preparing to release fresh data on their hepatitis B vaccine, Sci-B-Vac. The company did report impressive data that showed that Sci-B-Vac hit all primary and secondary endpoints and no safety signals were observed. In addition, the Sci-B-Vac outperformed GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK) Engerix in several categories including Seroprotection (Figure 8). Figure 8: Sci-B-Vac vs. Engerix (Source: VBIV) This data will allow the company to start submitting their applications for approval towards the end of 2020, with a potential approval in 2021. So, my thesis worked out and I was willing to wait for an approval. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and VBI jumped into the mix when they announced their pan-coronavirus vaccine candidate, VBI-2901. VBI's coronavirus vaccine is a multivalent vaccine that includes spike proteins from SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV (Figure 9), which could generate a broad array of reactive antibodies, which may deliver protection from mutated strains of the coronavirus. Figure 9: Pan-Coronavirus Structure. Source: VBIV Out of all of the known COVID-19 vaccines in development right now, I believe VBI is the only one working on a pan-coronavirus multivalent vaccine. This makes VBI-2901 a potential game-changer because of the possibility that COVID-19 might become endemic and find ways to mutate into seasonal strains that will make the current vaccines obsolete. The other vaccines in could make it all the way through the regulatory process to find out that COVID-19 is now COVID-20. VBI-2901 might be the only vaccine that could be effective against a drifted COVID-19. It is possible that COVID-19 becomes endemic, which will force health organizations to look for an annual multivalent vaccine, which will most likely favor VBI-2901's design.\n So far, the company has already partnered with the National Research Council of Canada, \"NRC,\" to bring a candidate to the clinic in Q4 2020. Unfortunately, we haven't seen any pre-clinical data for VBI-2901, so we can't get too excited. However, the market has been infusing money into the ticker which is up about 1000% from my VBIV article (Figure 10). Figure 10: VBIV Daily (Source: Trendspider) It will be interesting to see if VBIV can keep up the momentum but investors need to remain vigilant for updates on VBI-2901, Sci-B-Vac, and the company's pipeline programs (Figure 11). Figure 11: VBIV Pipeline (Source: VBIV) Dynavax Despite having several COVID-19 collaborations, Dynavax Technologies has been one of the laggards of the COVID-19 plays. Indeed, the stock has seen a strong from its 52-week lows (Figure 12) but the stock is not experiencing the same hype as other vaccine companies. I have to assume the lack of respect is due to the company not having their own COVID-19 vaccine but has signed collaborations for use of their TLR9 CpG 1018 adjuvant that they used in their hepatitis B vaccine, HEPLISAV-B. The addition of CpG 1018 in vaccines is expected to increase antibodies, CD4+, and CD8+ T cell populations and produces vigorous T and B cell memory reactions. This T cell response makes CpG 1018 one of the adjuvant's of choice because it could be a single-dose vaccine. As a result, CpG 1018 is being used in several COVID-19 vaccines candidates from all over the world, including,\n University of Queensland in Australia Clover Biopharmaceuticals in China Sinovac Pharmaceuticals in China Medicago in Canada Yet, DVAX is struggling to hit $10 per share? Dynavax's adjuvant might be used in millions of vaccines around the world but the market either isn't aware, or it doesn't care. Figure 12: DVAX Daily (Source: Trendspider) I have to assume the Street believes that the financials of providing an adjuvant is not the same as developing the vaccine. However, the number of deals could provide Dynavax with several revenue sources, while limiting the downside risk of regulatory failure and expenses. Long-term DVAX investors should focus on the company's HEPLISAV-B numbers and what the company intends to do with their mothballed oncology candidates, including SD-101. Grading These Tickers Novavax: Overall, NVAX has been a home run of an investment and I still see NVAX to be bullish simply on momentum and its ability to close deals with the Department of Defense and Operation Warp Speed. However, investors need to keep a close eye on the clinical data for NVX‑CoV2373 and how it stacks up against other early vaccine players. Altimmune: Altimmune was slow out of the gates but the company has worked hard to formulate a COVID-19 vaccine and therapeutic. Their recent collaboration with DVC has provided me with some confidence that they will get some government funding and will quickly get AdCOVID in the clinic. I was very close to ditching my ALT position but the COVID-19 pandemic has showcased the company's vaccine technology that could produce a vaccine that is perfect for a mass vaccination campaign. My original investment thesis has been revitalized and the stock is up over 1000% since my last addition, so I have to say ALT has been another home run investment.\n NantKwest: Once again, NantKwest has developed a potentially leading therapeutic by employing their NK cells but instead of cancer, the company is taking on COVID-19. NantKwest is collaborating with a fellow NantWorks company, ImmunityBio, to produce a potentially superior COVID-19 vaccine that targets both the S and N proteins of the virus. Sadly, the government and health agencies haven't recognized or respected NantKwest's efforts and the stock hasn't experienced the same level of hype as other COVID-19 plays. Indeed, the stock is up nearly 900% from my first NK article, so I have to be happy with the results, still, I am disappointed that the market is still not giving it the admiration it deserves. However, if the company reports preclinical data that reveals their vaccine and therapeutic is superior to the competition, we could witness a rotation into NK. VBI Vaccines: VBI's vaccine offers a multivalent vaccine that includes the spike proteins from SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV, which generate a broad defense from mutated strains of COVID-19. If there is data that shows that COVID-19 is turning into a COVID-20 or COVID-21, there will be doubts that the current lot of vaccines will not be as effective against the mutated strain. If this occurs I suspect the market will be on the lookout for a vaccine that is capable of dealing with a new endemic virus and VBI-2901 might be the answer. Admittedly, I didn't expect VBIV to be up over 800% since my first article, but I am glad to see VBIV getting some love from the market and could be a big winner if we a mutation in the virus. Dynavax: Has been one of my worst investments for number of reasons. Primarily, the company essentially destroyed my investment thesis focused on SD-101 and I was left with HEPLISAV-B, a pertussis pre-clinical candidate, and an adjuvant. Luckily, multiple pharmaceutical companies have tapped Dynavax to use their adjuvant for their COVID-19 vaccines, so the ticker has received some attention from the market to get me back above water…but I am not seeing the surge we are witnessing in the other names. However, I suspect one of the company's partnerships will get their vaccine approved to market and DVAX will finally start gathering some steam.\n Final Thoughts On COVID-19 Vaccine The COVID-19 vaccine \"race\" is a dynamic event that has numerous classes, lanes, and heats to run before we have a winner. Consequently, I suggest vaccine investors to sit down and determine where their investment is in this race. Were they an early player like NVAX? Are they part of Operation Warp Speed like NVAX? Is their vaccine unique like ALT, NK, or VBIV? Do they have partners to help them get across the finish line like NVAX, ALT, and DVAX have? If you can answer yes to these types of questions, the company could endure the increased volatility in the coming months as some companies report initial trial results and move closer to being approved. I believe the first vaccine to be approved is not going to offer the best efficacy or safety profile, or be able to manufacture in mass quantity, or will require multiple doses; or a variety of other characteristics. This leaves the door open to other vaccines to fill in the gaps or perhaps overtake the first-to-market vaccine as the standard-of-care vaccine. These opportunities will only multiply if COVID-19 becomes COVID-20 and this type of coronavirus becomes endemic to the human species. At that point, you will need a variety of different vaccines and companies to address the issues that will arise with dealing with a mutating virus that is spreading to all corners of the globe because no one will have an immunity. Therefore, the COVID-19 vaccine race is not over until the virus has been eradicated and the threat of a resurgence has been eliminated. Obviously, that is not going to happen anytime soon, so I expect these tickers to remain \"in-play\" for at least the remainder of 2020.\nDisclosure: I am/we are long NVAX, ALT, NK, VBIV, DVAX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":193,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"content":"几个重要的点 首先对于研发产品的可行性,独特性(如非医自助接种,多价疫苗),安全及有效性(有效性的显著程度),进展情况(如缺乏最后监管的审核)的理解 其次对于公司实力和技术平台(如技术层面能否推出针对性产品,独特的技术平台),资金支持(如权威机构或者资助计划),合作伙伴的合作情况(如在推动监管审批,产品量产等的助力),推论出产品能否落地及商业化能否开展","text":"几个重要的点 首先对于研发产品的可行性,独特性(如非医自助接种,多价疫苗),安全及有效性(有效性的显著程度),进展情况(如缺乏最后监管的审核)的理解 其次对于公司实力和技术平台(如技术层面能否推出针对性产品,独特的技术平台),资金支持(如权威机构或者资助计划),合作伙伴的合作情况(如在推动监管审批,产品量产等的助力),推论出产品能否落地及商业化能否开展","html":"几个重要的点 首先对于研发产品的可行性,独特性(如非医自助接种,多价疫苗),安全及有效性(有效性的显著程度),进展情况(如缺乏最后监管的审核)的理解 其次对于公司实力和技术平台(如技术层面能否推出针对性产品,独特的技术平台),资金支持(如权威机构或者资助计划),合作伙伴的合作情况(如在推动监管审批,产品量产等的助力),推论出产品能否落地及商业化能否开展"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":988013156,"gmtCreate":1583848208175,"gmtModify":1704351235323,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a>开盘20分钟内第三次停牌,厉害厉害。。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a>开盘20分钟内第三次停牌,厉害厉害。。。","text":"$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$开盘20分钟内第三次停牌,厉害厉害。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/988013156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544438052908875","authorId":"3544438052908875","name":"gildDafalias","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86d3d52a20d64c1c29399dbed577bc51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544438052908875","authorIdStr":"3544438052908875"},"content":"还会一直跌吗","text":"还会一直跌吗","html":"还会一直跌吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":988096152,"gmtCreate":1583845791676,"gmtModify":1704351212491,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$</a>Novavax Awarded Funding from CEPI for ** Vaccine DevelopmentThat’s why arising","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$</a>Novavax Awarded Funding from CEPI for ** Vaccine DevelopmentThat’s why arising","text":"$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$Novavax Awarded Funding from CEPI for ** Vaccine DevelopmentThat’s why arising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/988096152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心!如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":976518701,"gmtCreate":1599754027303,"gmtModify":1703819660695,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>观察那些稳定在较短时期内获得超常收益的人,其共性有一个特点,不单单只是价值投资或者技术分析等等一家之言的追随者,而是综合多家的优势,形成唤起自己内在深深共鸣的方法。这和一些成功的人的成功基本原理相同:不拘一格,在各种可能的方式中寻求最优策略,或者说,做策略思考者。技术分析,趋势分析,加上价值分析中投资自己了解的股票的根本原则,或许能更容易达到高胜率同时高回报的效果","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVGO\">$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$</a>观察那些稳定在较短时期内获得超常收益的人,其共性有一个特点,不单单只是价值投资或者技术分析等等一家之言的追随者,而是综合多家的优势,形成唤起自己内在深深共鸣的方法。这和一些成功的人的成功基本原理相同:不拘一格,在各种可能的方式中寻求最优策略,或者说,做策略思考者。技术分析,趋势分析,加上价值分析中投资自己了解的股票的根本原则,或许能更容易达到高胜率同时高回报的效果","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$Livongo Health, Inc.(LVGO)$观察那些稳定在较短时期内获得超常收益的人,其共性有一个特点,不单单只是价值投资或者技术分析等等一家之言的追随者,而是综合多家的优势,形成唤起自己内在深深共鸣的方法。这和一些成功的人的成功基本原理相同:不拘一格,在各种可能的方式中寻求最优策略,或者说,做策略思考者。技术分析,趋势分析,加上价值分析中投资自己了解的股票的根本原则,或许能更容易达到高胜率同时高回报的效果","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976518701","repostId":"1137186621","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137186621","pubTimestamp":1599745067,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137186621?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-10 21:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"今年回报达359.4%的投资大神三大重仓股曝光","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137186621","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"截至到2020年7月底为止,回报率高达359.4%的凯尔无疑是美国投资冠军赛最有力的冠军竞争者之一。正是靠着严格的资产管理,靠着追随趋势、技术分析,以及寻找“故事股票”,凯尔获得了今年迄今为止的表现。目前,他的三只重仓股是特斯拉、Livongo和Fastly。最终,凯尔如愿以偿地成为了市场上的一名专业人士。之后不久,他承担起了操盘的任务,深入了解了大机构是如何执行他们的买单和卖单的。出于风险管控的考虑,凯尔将止损上限设定在大约3%附近。","content":"<p><i>截至到2020年7月底为止,回报率高达359.4%的凯尔(Oliver Kell)无疑是美国投资冠军赛最有力的冠军竞争者之一。正是靠着严格的资产管理,靠着追随趋势、技术分析,以及寻找“故事股票”,凯尔获得了今年迄今为止的表现。目前,他的三只重仓股是特斯拉、Livongo和Fastly。</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e446f7b0e3a978fb9ada8c02314f19ef\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\">在2020年度美国投资冠军赛(US Investing Championship)的角逐当中,年度迄今为止回报率高达359.4%的凯尔(Oliver Kell)无疑是最有力的冠军竞争者之一,而他似乎生下来就是为了驰骋金融市场的。</p><p>“我似乎生来就知道市场是怎么回事,这或许是因为我父亲是一位做市商的缘故。”他表示,“后来长大了一点,我经常是每天用半天来上课和学习,用半天去交易大厅看收盘。”</p><p>最终,凯尔如愿以偿地成为了市场上的一名专业人士。入行后,他用了整整十年来学习,在一系列岗位上学习到了大量市场相关的知识。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd7d76bade75187e8c3446a1e573f88\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\">在生涯早期,凯尔学会了看盘,即通过解读磁带机上的记录来分析股票的价格和成交情况,后来又去了一家对冲基金研究国际套利交易。</p><p>之后不久,他承担起了操盘的任务,深入了解了大机构是如何执行他们的买单和卖单的。再之后,效力某一共同基金期间,他又了解了理财顾问们是如何鉴别和挑选股票基金的。</p><p>只是,到那时,他还没有发现一套能够唤起自己深深共鸣的投资策略,或者说方法。虽然他现在也常说,自己这一路以来积累的知识是“无价之宝”,但是他当初就认识到,找到一种合适自己的方法是至关重要的。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b42d3b4d8c5d3458a65dd9a0007401\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"400\">幸运的是,他读到了奥尼尔(William O'Neil)的经典之作《笑傲股市》(How to Make Money in Stocks)。</p><p>“我翻开这套书,感觉自己就像是当场被击中了。”他回忆道,“我开始学习图表、价格走势、成交量相关的各种知识。我必须说,在我离开那只对冲基金的前夕,我才真正开始学习赚钱之道。”</p><p>转眼到了今天,显然,凯尔在学以致用这方面表现相当不俗。截至7月底,他今年迄今为止的投资回报率达到了令人瞠目的359.4%,在2020年美国投资冠军赛(US Investing Championship)当中名列第三。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f0acdff27952c381c0f71cbfaf71e00\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"545\">凯尔的长处就在于,他能够将来自不同投资大师的不同方法都有效地与自己的经验整合到一起。不管是前面提到的奥尼尔,还是李佛摩尔(Jesse Livermore)和林奇(Peter Lynch),这些传奇人物都对他产生了重大的影响。</p><p>从奥尼尔那里,凯尔学到了著名的CANSLIM选股法则。从林奇那里,凯尔学到了投资自己了解事物的根本原则。从李佛摩尔那里,凯尔更学到了金字塔投资法等众多交易手段。</p><p>“在我看来,自己应该属于以技术面为根基的趋势追随者。”他表示,“奥尼尔的CANSLIM法则形成了骨骼,而在选择要交易的股票时,则要依靠林奇的投资观。”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78877967b6aad0a76c73e79bd9150274\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"876\">“我通常都只注意那些我了解他们的业务,或者是使用他们的产品的企业的股票,他们还必须有可观的盈利和销售额。”凯尔表示,“我也会愿意去留意一些我认为有故事的股票。”</p><p>在绝大多数时间里,凯尔都是同时持有六到十二只自己有透彻认识的股票,而其中三到五只构成投资组合的绝对主体。为了把握住个股的趋势,他会依靠十天和二十天指数移动平均线,以此为基准不断买进卖出,来控制风险。</p><p>凯尔在进行交易之后,观察该股的价格与移动平均线的相对关系,就能够知道自己判断的对与错。如果股价涨破或者跌破平均线,凯尔就会重新评估自己的头寸。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c633fe48594d8e90aae5791061606f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\">“我总是寻找有望实现一系列重大突破的股票。”凯尔表示,“我希望自己投资的股票可以改变我们生活,或者是做事情的方式。”</p><p>出于风险管控的考虑,凯尔将止损上限设定在大约3%附近。不过,如果他尚未最终完成建仓,有时也会适当放宽标准。当一只股票涨破了十天移动平均线,凯尔一般都会兑现一部分利润。</p><p>“我当然希望能够发现那种能够上涨100%、200%,乃至300%的股票,而不是只是去买进那只天然具有周期性,或者是在我看来有望上涨20%的股票。”</p><p>总之,正是靠着严格的资产管理,靠着追随趋势、技术分析,以及寻找“故事股票”,凯尔获得了今年迄今为止的表现。目前,他的三只重仓股是特斯拉、Livongo和Fastly,但是只要这些股票达到了他预设的各种标准,他也会毫不犹豫地调整其头寸。</p><p>“我为各家大对冲基金效力过很多年,实话说,我觉得有太多手握成吨重金的人根本就不知道自己在做什么。”他坦言,“加入这样一个竞争,能够让你更容易看清楚自己相对于别人所处的地位。”</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>今年回报达359.4%的投资大神三大重仓股曝光</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n今年回报达359.4%的投资大神三大重仓股曝光\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-10 21:37 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/91WVQbE4-JJe2heRwSmLXw><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>截至到2020年7月底为止,回报率高达359.4%的凯尔(Oliver Kell)无疑是美国投资冠军赛最有力的冠军竞争者之一。正是靠着严格的资产管理,靠着追随趋势、技术分析,以及寻找“故事股票”,凯尔获得了今年迄今为止的表现。目前,他的三只重仓股是特斯拉、Livongo和Fastly。在2020年度美国投资冠军赛(US Investing Championship)的角逐当中,年度迄今为止回报率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/91WVQbE4-JJe2heRwSmLXw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e446f7b0e3a978fb9ada8c02314f19ef","relate_stocks":{"FSLY":"Fastly, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉","LVGO":"Livongo Health, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/91WVQbE4-JJe2heRwSmLXw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137186621","content_text":"截至到2020年7月底为止,回报率高达359.4%的凯尔(Oliver Kell)无疑是美国投资冠军赛最有力的冠军竞争者之一。正是靠着严格的资产管理,靠着追随趋势、技术分析,以及寻找“故事股票”,凯尔获得了今年迄今为止的表现。目前,他的三只重仓股是特斯拉、Livongo和Fastly。在2020年度美国投资冠军赛(US Investing Championship)的角逐当中,年度迄今为止回报率高达359.4%的凯尔(Oliver Kell)无疑是最有力的冠军竞争者之一,而他似乎生下来就是为了驰骋金融市场的。“我似乎生来就知道市场是怎么回事,这或许是因为我父亲是一位做市商的缘故。”他表示,“后来长大了一点,我经常是每天用半天来上课和学习,用半天去交易大厅看收盘。”最终,凯尔如愿以偿地成为了市场上的一名专业人士。入行后,他用了整整十年来学习,在一系列岗位上学习到了大量市场相关的知识。在生涯早期,凯尔学会了看盘,即通过解读磁带机上的记录来分析股票的价格和成交情况,后来又去了一家对冲基金研究国际套利交易。之后不久,他承担起了操盘的任务,深入了解了大机构是如何执行他们的买单和卖单的。再之后,效力某一共同基金期间,他又了解了理财顾问们是如何鉴别和挑选股票基金的。只是,到那时,他还没有发现一套能够唤起自己深深共鸣的投资策略,或者说方法。虽然他现在也常说,自己这一路以来积累的知识是“无价之宝”,但是他当初就认识到,找到一种合适自己的方法是至关重要的。幸运的是,他读到了奥尼尔(William O'Neil)的经典之作《笑傲股市》(How to Make Money in Stocks)。“我翻开这套书,感觉自己就像是当场被击中了。”他回忆道,“我开始学习图表、价格走势、成交量相关的各种知识。我必须说,在我离开那只对冲基金的前夕,我才真正开始学习赚钱之道。”转眼到了今天,显然,凯尔在学以致用这方面表现相当不俗。截至7月底,他今年迄今为止的投资回报率达到了令人瞠目的359.4%,在2020年美国投资冠军赛(US Investing Championship)当中名列第三。凯尔的长处就在于,他能够将来自不同投资大师的不同方法都有效地与自己的经验整合到一起。不管是前面提到的奥尼尔,还是李佛摩尔(Jesse Livermore)和林奇(Peter Lynch),这些传奇人物都对他产生了重大的影响。从奥尼尔那里,凯尔学到了著名的CANSLIM选股法则。从林奇那里,凯尔学到了投资自己了解事物的根本原则。从李佛摩尔那里,凯尔更学到了金字塔投资法等众多交易手段。“在我看来,自己应该属于以技术面为根基的趋势追随者。”他表示,“奥尼尔的CANSLIM法则形成了骨骼,而在选择要交易的股票时,则要依靠林奇的投资观。”“我通常都只注意那些我了解他们的业务,或者是使用他们的产品的企业的股票,他们还必须有可观的盈利和销售额。”凯尔表示,“我也会愿意去留意一些我认为有故事的股票。”在绝大多数时间里,凯尔都是同时持有六到十二只自己有透彻认识的股票,而其中三到五只构成投资组合的绝对主体。为了把握住个股的趋势,他会依靠十天和二十天指数移动平均线,以此为基准不断买进卖出,来控制风险。凯尔在进行交易之后,观察该股的价格与移动平均线的相对关系,就能够知道自己判断的对与错。如果股价涨破或者跌破平均线,凯尔就会重新评估自己的头寸。“我总是寻找有望实现一系列重大突破的股票。”凯尔表示,“我希望自己投资的股票可以改变我们生活,或者是做事情的方式。”出于风险管控的考虑,凯尔将止损上限设定在大约3%附近。不过,如果他尚未最终完成建仓,有时也会适当放宽标准。当一只股票涨破了十天移动平均线,凯尔一般都会兑现一部分利润。“我当然希望能够发现那种能够上涨100%、200%,乃至300%的股票,而不是只是去买进那只天然具有周期性,或者是在我看来有望上涨20%的股票。”总之,正是靠着严格的资产管理,靠着追随趋势、技术分析,以及寻找“故事股票”,凯尔获得了今年迄今为止的表现。目前,他的三只重仓股是特斯拉、Livongo和Fastly,但是只要这些股票达到了他预设的各种标准,他也会毫不犹豫地调整其头寸。“我为各家大对冲基金效力过很多年,实话说,我觉得有太多手握成吨重金的人根本就不知道自己在做什么。”他坦言,“加入这样一个竞争,能够让你更容易看清楚自己相对于别人所处的地位。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"content":"问题的本质还是回到了为什么买这个不买那个,为什么在这个时点买,选择买期权还是正股为什么,这几个问题对应的是:选择对了股票,进入时间错误,不会取胜;选择不了解的股票,即使时间正确,由于形成了错误的观念最终还是会失败;选择错误的期权,即使正股方向正确,仍然可能大败。在标的之间多做比较,在交易前把这几个问题一步步想清楚,久而久之,看问题自然就高了一个层次","text":"问题的本质还是回到了为什么买这个不买那个,为什么在这个时点买,选择买期权还是正股为什么,这几个问题对应的是:选择对了股票,进入时间错误,不会取胜;选择不了解的股票,即使时间正确,由于形成了错误的观念最终还是会失败;选择错误的期权,即使正股方向正确,仍然可能大败。在标的之间多做比较,在交易前把这几个问题一步步想清楚,久而久之,看问题自然就高了一个层次","html":"问题的本质还是回到了为什么买这个不买那个,为什么在这个时点买,选择买期权还是正股为什么,这几个问题对应的是:选择对了股票,进入时间错误,不会取胜;选择不了解的股票,即使时间正确,由于形成了错误的观念最终还是会失败;选择错误的期权,即使正股方向正确,仍然可能大败。在标的之间多做比较,在交易前把这几个问题一步步想清楚,久而久之,看问题自然就高了一个层次"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973939457,"gmtCreate":1598417403579,"gmtModify":1704218749370,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>付费习惯培养长路漫漫,效应初显,音乐领域确实是最有实力最具竞争力的企业,引领的行业态势变革最终能带来多快的增长速度?天花板在哪里?桥水看中的是什么?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>付费习惯培养长路漫漫,效应初显,音乐领域确实是最有实力最具竞争力的企业,引领的行业态势变革最终能带来多快的增长速度?天花板在哪里?桥水看中的是什么?","text":"$腾讯音乐(TME)$付费习惯培养长路漫漫,效应初显,音乐领域确实是最有实力最具竞争力的企业,引领的行业态势变革最终能带来多快的增长速度?天花板在哪里?桥水看中的是什么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973939457","repostId":"2059684281","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2059684281","pubTimestamp":1597306560,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2059684281?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-13 16:16","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"为什么现在是重估腾讯音乐的关键节点?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2059684281","media":"界面新闻","summary":"原标题:为什么现在是重估腾讯音乐的关键节点?对腾讯音乐这家公司有所了解的投资人,或多或少,对其可能都有一些刻板成见。2018年上市那会,公司招股书显示其为中国最大的在线音乐流媒体公司,令投资者有不少疑","content":"<div>\n<p>原标题:为什么现在是重估腾讯音乐的关键节点?对腾讯音乐这家公司有所了解的投资人,或多或少,对其可能都有一些刻板成见。2018年上市那会,公司招股书显示其为中国最大的在线音乐流媒体公司,令投资者有不少疑虑:毕竟收入构成在那放着——超过70%收入,来自社交娱乐业务板块——在线直播、在线K歌。随后几个季度,投资者发现公司的在线音乐收入的增长情况也不如预期,有些“名不副实”。明明绝大收入和增长,都来自社交...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-08-13/doc-iivhuipn8470362.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么现在是重估腾讯音乐的关键节点?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-13 16:16 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-08-13/doc-iivhuipn8470362.shtml><strong>界面新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:为什么现在是重估腾讯音乐的关键节点?对腾讯音乐这家公司有所了解的投资人,或多或少,对其可能都有一些刻板成见。2018年上市那会,公司招股书显示其为中国最大的在线音乐流媒体公司,令投资者有不少疑虑:毕竟收入构成在那放着——超过70%收入,来自社交娱乐业务板块——在线直播、在线K歌。随后几个季度,投资者发现公司的在线音乐收入的增长情况也不如预期,有些“名不副实”。明明绝大收入和增长,都来自社交...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-08-13/doc-iivhuipn8470362.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4cfb506ffb58f1fc2c6e75a4e50dab8","relate_stocks":{"TME":"腾讯音乐"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-08-13/doc-iivhuipn8470362.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2059684281","content_text":"原标题:为什么现在是重估腾讯音乐的关键节点?对腾讯音乐这家公司有所了解的投资人,或多或少,对其可能都有一些刻板成见。2018年上市那会,公司招股书显示其为中国最大的在线音乐流媒体公司,令投资者有不少疑虑:毕竟收入构成在那放着——超过70%收入,来自社交娱乐业务板块——在线直播、在线K歌。随后几个季度,投资者发现公司的在线音乐收入的增长情况也不如预期,有些“名不副实”。明明绝大收入和增长,都来自社交娱乐,TME这种复合的模式。在市场上也没有能够直接进行对标的对象。你说你想有一个音乐流媒体估值倍数,投资者会买单吗?显而易见,这种看法导致其估值始终停留在一个让人看不透的模样。不过,这个情况在2020Q2的财报里,出现了一些新迹象。2020Q2,TME在线音乐付费人数与付费渗透率均创下新高,在线音乐付费人数由2019Q2季度的3100万人增至本季度的4710万人;其付费渗透率由2019Q2季度的4.8%增至本季度的7.2%,都是历史新高。简单说,这家公司增长引擎发生了变化,在线音乐付费的驱动力呈现出加速提升的状态。财务数据也验证了这一点。如果这一结论成立且继续延续下去,毫无疑问,对于腾讯音乐的定价,将从“直播概念股”切换成“音乐流媒体股/综合音乐娱乐股”,这里面存在一个资产重新定价的机会,也即存在估值切换的可能。这无疑引起了投资者的注意,毕竟对资产重新定价的α收益,是极为诱人的。如同闻到血腥的鲨鱼,极为兴奋的同时,我们也对这一次的增长展开了深度研究,尽可能了解腾讯音乐的实际情况。本文分为三部分,将逐一分析这背后的原因。1、在线音乐付费收入增长背后的原因是什么?2、增长的质量如何,结构又是什么样的,是否为疫情后的泡沫?3、这样的增长能否有一定持续性,未来趋势如何?一、复盘在线付费音乐创新高背后原因业务和财务数据创新高是“花果”,前面一定是公司在具体经营上的“播种浇水”。TME在线音乐业务层面表现十分靓丽,作为投资者需要知晓公司具体做了哪些“播种”。这里面有些是公司长期努力的结果,有些是公司短期的一些刺激行为,甚至有时候是来自外部环境的影响。爆款综艺带来的流量、转化付费双提升短期来说,从复盘过去公司经营上的一些行为,我们发现直接的刺激因子是爆款综艺产生的流量。毫无疑问,这些综艺上产生的音乐版权,会直接促进粉丝的购买行为。据悉,腾讯音乐在2020上半年年,一共拿下超30档综艺原声版权,几乎覆盖了所有爆款现象级综艺节目,甚至芒果台的《乘风破浪的姐姐》等选秀综艺也在榜单。在公司Q2财报披露中看到:公司从潮流热门的综艺节目中引入了更多优质内容。在2020年上半年,公司曲库涵盖了超过80%的中国音乐综艺节目内容版权,进一步获得了更多年轻用户的青睐。爆款综艺节目,往往给视频流媒体带来的流量效应。这在音乐行业也毫不例外。仅以《青春有你2》为例,随着该综艺热播,主题曲《YES!OK!》于3月18日在TME旗下各平台上线,3月19日便以140%的增长率登上QQ音乐飙升榜首位。截至目前,《YES!OK!》在QQ音乐上评论已过六万,在全民K歌更是被演唱了348.6万余次。而在这样的流量刺激下,平台就顺利转换成付费曲库策略。就《青春有你2》的音乐版权来看,除了主题曲免费收听以外,用户在收听选手的比赛曲目时,大多都需要购买音乐会员。这对短期提升在线音乐收入,显然是一剂强心针。《青2》不是孤立的,腾讯视频旗下的爆款综艺《创造营2020》、《明日之子4》,在QQ音乐上收听相关曲目也是如此。这些付费曲库内的歌曲,都需要通过购买会员后才能收听。除此之外,平台更是有其他的变现策略——购买平台会员,来获得更多的给自己idol打call的机会,最大程度地调动了粉丝付费的积极性。看似一波又一波的综艺热潮,实质都成了腾讯音乐商业变现契机,转化成在线音乐付费收入。这或许是最近一年,在腾讯音乐收入中,付费音乐能加速跑起来的核心要素之一。疫情后的音乐消费复苏当然,在这个季度创新高,也离不开疫情后,音乐消费复苏的因素。三月以后的Q2,随着疫情在国内得到了良好的控制,人们的生活工作逐渐开始恢复正常。人们居家时间减少,在健身、上下班通勤、等待朋友等场景下,音乐消费再次被激活,自然Q2季度音乐消费出现“恢复性反弹”。超级促销:联合会员购买,让你觉得值此外,这些音乐消费能否转化成收入,很重要的因子是公司适时推出的一些促销活动。TME在近一年内,推出了诸多联合会员的促销活动,最大程度地激起消费者当即购买的欲望。无论是综艺刺激,还是外部突发疫情环境,甚至促销会员,这些毕竟都是短期因素。消费者短期可能是傻子,但长期一定是聪明的。能让消费者为音乐买单的驱动力源自哪里?毫无疑问是其音乐本身。“加固加厚”付费曲库音乐平台上的歌曲,一种是免费的,另一种是需要付费的。基于此,平台建立起更具针对性的付费曲库。如果用户想听的歌曲,刚好在付费曲库里,那么一部分用户就转化成付费用户。要想这个付费意愿能提升,那么公司必须“加固加厚”付费曲库。而付费曲库的“加固加厚”,一直都在TME的长期战略计划中。在今年1Q20电话会议中,TME首席战略官叶卓东也曾专门提到过,集团下阶段将逐步提高付费内容占比。回顾TME这次在线音乐表现靓丽,实际上是必然多于偶然。付费音乐增长引擎的转化是必然。二、增长质量如何,是否为疫情后的“泡沫”上一部分,拆解了短期业绩靓丽背后,公司经营层面的一些动向。这些行为或多或少帮助我们理解公司的实质情况。但另一个维度,了解完基础的信息后,我们需要做一些判断——这次增长质量是怎么样的,是不是疫情后“消费泡沫”。下面我们将从在线音乐收入构成、获得这样收入的代价进行分析。收入结构调整:音乐会员是真香单独看TME的在线音乐收入构成,主要分为两个部分,一是订阅收入,一是非订阅收入,而非订阅收入主要就是广告收入与专辑分销收入。从2020年Q1季度开始,TME在线音乐收入的内部结构,出现转折。其订阅收入从2019年Q4季度的52%猛增到2020年Q1季度的59%,在刚刚公布的2020年Q2季度,这个趋势也得到了延续。连续多个季度的音乐会员产生的收入比例增加,其实意味着在线音乐收入质量在提高。这很好理解,毕竟非订阅收入,一次性购买行为居多,买专辑不会重复购买同一专辑,而购买会员是一个付费粘性高的行为,会重复购买。换句话说,TME的在线音乐收入里面的三种收入:1、买音乐会员产生的在线音乐订阅收入2、买专辑产生的一次性居多的在线音乐非订阅收入3、腾讯音乐里面,因为流量产生的广告收入发生了结构性变化,也就是第一种粘性高的音乐会员,卖得更多,增长更快。这种增长无疑是让人期待,毕竟一次性卖专辑的生意或者卖广告生意,没有提供“高续费高粘性”的音乐C端SaaS的生意香。因而,表现在财务数据中,可以看到订阅收入占整个在线音乐收入的比例从2019年Q1开始呈现出强有力的上升态势。这样的增长,是补贴出来的吗?当然,这种音乐C端SaaS生意的高增长,到底是怎么来的呢,是不是短期刺激性促销的呢?对此我们展开了分析。我们在这个通过ARPPU和获客成本之间的差值(gap),来探究其营销费用和收入之间的平衡状况。也就是下图中的黄线部分。可以明显的看出,2019Q2以来,其ARPPU总是高于获客成本,相对是一个健康的状态。2020Q1由于疫情影响,虽然出现短暂的波谷,但是随着疫情的恢复,在2020年Q2开始转正。三、音乐付费增长可以持续吗?从目前的数据来看,综艺爆款、疫情好转、会员促销等一系列短期因子,辅以付费习惯养成等长期因素,使得TME会员付费率的增速,在这一季度踩上了一脚油门。并且经过分析,我们认为其会员付费增长相对健康。然而,资本市场更看重的是预期,投资人买的也正是企业的未来。对TME来说,更重要的问题是:这一波付费的增长可持续吗?催化因子:“姐姐”带来的“繁荣”可复制吗?我们在前面提到,TME与众多爆款网综的合作是其付费增长的一个重要催化因子。然而“爆款”这个词背后的代价是:稀有,也就意味着很难大规模复制。如果下个季度“饭圈女孩”们不用在QQ音乐打投送爱豆们出道,其付费率在本季的高涨就属于爆款加持下的“短暂繁荣”。而解决这一顾虑的办法无非是:与大量综艺合作,总能出现爆款。而TME也恰恰是这样做的,我们在第一部分中提到,其在2020H1合作的综艺就多达18款,内容优势稳固。通过不断积累优质的热门综艺,形成一个全方位的供给,其中部分用户自然会转化为消费者。更重要的是,除了短期爆款对会员付费产生催化作用外,长期付费市场、付费意愿能否增长才是更值得关注的因素。增量市场:音乐付费的“雪坡有多长”?虽然TME这一季度的付费率增长到了7.2%的新高,但相比音乐流媒体标杆企业Spotify,其付费渗透程度仍比较低。根据财报,截止2020Q1,Spotify的付费率为45.5%,主打免费牌的Pandora也有10.3%的会员付费。(当然,国内外生态音乐服务生态不一样,国内特色的音乐直播和在线K歌毕竟赚钱,Spotify等也在学习)由此看来,TME目前付费渗透还不算高,未来空间巨大。从理论上讲,整个音乐付费市场有着很大的增长空间。但在这个空间之内,国内市场究竟能够增长到什么程度,还取决于一些重要因子,用户的付费习惯是其中之一。从2015年开始,秀场、游戏直播的风起云涌,掀起了国内线上付费的潮流。人们从单纯的秀场付费,到越来越能接受知识付费、服务付费,越来越多的人愿意为了更好的用户体验,加入到付费的行列,其中就包括音乐付费。根据iResearch数据,2016年,中国数字音乐用户每月愿意付费金额为16.3元,而2019年,这一金额已经上涨到了31.7元,这说明用户的付费意愿有了大幅度的提振。从与Spotify的对比来看,整个音乐付费的盘子还有很大的增量空间,而从付费意愿看,这个盘子的增长也很迅速。那么这个巨大的蛋糕,TME能吃到多少?其份额会被人抢走吗?行业竞争:蛋糕会被别人抢走吗?众所周知,国内流媒体行业体量最大的是TME,其在音乐生态的渗透上,相较于市场其他玩家有较大领先优势。尽管公认的最强行业竞争者网易云音乐在用户体量和布局上有所逊色,但是行业竞争仍然是我们整个分析中需要考虑的重要一环。音乐付费的盘子眼看着就要变得肥美,会不会因为竞争格局的改变,本属于竞争对手的增量空间,被竞争对手侵占?2018年2月9日,国家版权局正式对外透露,在其推动下,腾讯音乐与网易云音乐就网络音乐版权合作事宜达成一致,相互授权音乐作品,达到99%以上。这意味着,任何一家公司都不会对音乐市场产生真正意义上的垄断。而除了相互授权外的99%外,余下1%“独家版权”音乐作品中,包含了大量具有流量号召力的头部作品,也正是各平台变相博弈的筹码。2020年初,市场上大量声音担心TME与各大音乐公司的合约即将到期,其竞争优势即将被抹平。然而最近,这个有关版权的疑虑逐渐被打消。TME在不断的加深与各大音乐唱片公司的合作,就在昨日,TME又最新发布消息称,公司将与环球音乐达成长期合作,在此基础之上,双方还宣布共同成立音乐厂牌。在1%的竞争博弈中,TME似乎没有竞争优势被弱化的苗头。除此之外,我们发现,其实基于复合业态的TME在具体打法上,和其他数字音乐平台也大有不同,甚至是错位竞争的。就拿TME旗下QQ音乐来说,QQ音乐的产品定位是以版权和用户为主打造娱乐音乐生态圈,强调产业链,通过深度参与、增值产业链的策略,获取更多的商业价值;而市面上其他如网易云音乐等主打以优质原创音乐内容为主的音乐社交平台,始终围绕社区、流量做运营。当然,这些商业化路径还有待市场验证。打法不一样,也就意味着长短板不同,中短期来看,两家在补足自己的短板,真正大规模同质化以前,或许竞争不会过于激烈。那么双方其实都有着充足的增长空间,大概率不会出现过分侵蚀对方盘子的现象。中腰部生态:能否被补齐?对于常规流媒体音乐平台来讲,由于其收入主要来源于用户对音乐的购买,所以平台资源会向那些知名度更大、能卖出更多专辑的歌手倾斜,中腰部艺人的收入往往不如意。但音乐流媒体平台们也恰恰受制于头部艺人,头部艺人的议价权过高,收入分成比例也更高。并且,这些头部艺人的引流能力强大,如果终止合作,很可能将很大一部分用户带走。所以,2016年以来,各音乐平台都推出各自的音乐人扶持计划,想要参与产业链,打造生态闭环。对于用户来说,众多腰部艺人意味着曲库的丰富,其留存率也会提升。而腰部艺人养成后,一方面其作品可以纳入付费曲库,提升付费率,进而提振收入;另一方面,相比头部艺人也可以节约分成成本,增加平台利润。从2017年开始,TME推出了原创音乐平台“腾讯音乐人”,帮助音乐人宣发、管理数据、支持演出。在2019年,也有类似活动并加大力度。根据统计,10万元年收益以下,签约独家歌曲的音乐人获得的分成比例将提高至100%,TME不参与分成;而10万元以上收益,TME只从会员、广告、乐币抽成,不抽成单曲订购收入。在TME的音乐人扶持策略下,据我们观察,其实大部分腰部艺人们还没有被纳入付费曲库内,也就意味着从目前来看,还没有产生大规模的收益。但我们从长远的角度来看,将议价权过高的劳动要素纳入生态环内,不管从成本端还是收入端来看,都是一项值得尝试的行为。小结近几年来,资本市场上存在类似于“实则为直播股”的看低声音围绕在TME周围,然而从2020Q2财报来看,TME似乎开始扭转这一观点。在社交娱乐业务支持下,逐渐朝着在线音乐甚至线上线下联动演出、长音频等创新业务的生意走去。市场上,资本定价总是紧紧跟随公司的各种战略行为、业绩状况。投资人们察觉到TME“标签转换”苗头后,就迅速表现在了股价上。随着疫情的好转,TME股价一路上涨,7月9日飙升至17.97的最高值,相比疫情期间“至暗时刻”增长幅度达到89%。但从目前的市值来看,TME市净率为3.73倍,相比Spotify的19.53倍市净率,更接近2.23倍的陌陌。此后,TME的探路之旅,如果能够持续下去,并且在行业内能够保持并强化其竞争优势,我们是不是可以大胆预测,其估值转换的征途才刚刚开始?数据支持 | 洞见数据研究院","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945243899,"gmtCreate":1596594863411,"gmtModify":1704212809816,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"翻出一篇旧文年底前获得授权的疫苗将仅用于紧急情况,其功效性将远低于一般标准,在疫情将持续数年的情况下,疗效和安全性高的公司将最终获得大众市场并胜出。被提前授权的疫苗将有助于提升市场的整体情绪,群体聚集型服务的公司和旅游消费公司将受到提振和估值修复<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRNE\">$Sorrento Therapeutics Inc.(SRNE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXRT\">$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">$挪威邮轮(NCLH)$</a>","listText":"翻出一篇旧文年底前获得授权的疫苗将仅用于紧急情况,其功效性将远低于一般标准,在疫情将持续数年的情况下,疗效和安全性高的公司将最终获得大众市场并胜出。被提前授权的疫苗将有助于提升市场的整体情绪,群体聚集型服务的公司和旅游消费公司将受到提振和估值修复<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRNE\">$Sorrento Therapeutics Inc.(SRNE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VXRT\">$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCLH\">$挪威邮轮(NCLH)$</a>","text":"翻出一篇旧文年底前获得授权的疫苗将仅用于紧急情况,其功效性将远低于一般标准,在疫情将持续数年的情况下,疗效和安全性高的公司将最终获得大众市场并胜出。被提前授权的疫苗将有助于提升市场的整体情绪,群体聚集型服务的公司和旅游消费公司将受到提振和估值修复$Sorrento Therapeutics Inc.(SRNE)$$Vaxart, Inc(VXRT)$$Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc(INO)$$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$$挪威邮轮(NCLH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945243899","repostId":"2044553590","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2044553590","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1592561340,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2044553590?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-19 18:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's why the FDA may approve a Covid-19 vaccine before the November elections, according to Jefferies' biotech-research team","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2044553590","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW UPDATE: Here's why the FDA may approve a Covid-19 vaccine before the November elections, accordin","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW UPDATE: Here's why the FDA may approve a Covid-19 vaccine before the November elections, according to Jefferies' biotech-research team\n</p>\n<p>\n By Michael Brush, MarketWatch \n</p>\n<p>\n If true, any approval may not actually benefit a vaccine company, but instead other parts of the stock market \n</p>\n<p>\n As fears of a second wave of Covid-19 weigh on stocks, here's some potentially good news: A vaccine may be approved before the November election, according to a major biotechnology investing research firm. \n</p>\n<p>\n The prediction is a big deal for investors for three reasons. \n</p>\n<p>\n 1. It's credible because it comes from Jefferies, a high-profile brokerage in biotech and pharma that's wired in to literally hundreds of companies in the group, including the major vaccine developers. Jefferies has nine analysts covering the industry. \n</p>\n<p>\n 2. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of a vaccine ahead of voting could have an impact on the elections, possibly swaying the outcome in favor of President Trump. \n</p>\n<p>\n 3. For investors, early vaccine approval would be bullish for biotech stocks, cyclical stocks, travel stocks, the economy and the market overall. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have recovered most of their March losses, and the Nasdaq Composite Index recently hit new highs. They'll need some good news to support further advances. \n</p>\n<p>\n Ironically, early vaccine approvals probably won't mean much for investors who have already enjoyed good runs in vaccine developers. It might not mean much for most people worried about contracting the virus, either. Weird, right? We'll get to that later in this column. \n</p>\n<p>\n Bold prediction \n</p>\n<p>\n We hear time and again that vaccines take 10 to 15 years to research and bring to market. So given the limited timeline of Covid-19 vaccine safety and efficacy studies to date, the following is a bold projection. \n</p>\n<p>\n \"We believe the FDA will likely approve at least one vaccine prior to the November election,\" Jefferies health-care strategist Jared Holz said in an interview. \"Perhaps multiple vaccines could get the go-ahead at some point early in the fourth quarter and quell fears of a second wave of Covid-19.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n But this isn't too off the wall, even if Covid-19 vaccines have only been investigated for under a year. That's because Holz is basing his prediction, in part, on signals from vaccine-development companies. \n</p>\n<p>\n He says New York-based Jefferies has heard from several vaccine developers -- including Moderna <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$(MRNA)$</a> and AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) -- that an emergency authorization may happen before the elections. And just as important, they'll be close to having the capacity to produce millions of doses. \n</p>\n<p>\n \"That sets a very high bar, which no one is asking them to set,\" says Holz. \n</p>\n<p>\n Efficacy studies will continue. Moderna is moving into Phase II Covid-19 vaccine trials now, and it will start a larger Phase III clinical study at the beginning of July, the company has said. Both trials look at efficacy, and they will continue to examine safety. Many other vaccine companies are on a similar timeline. \n</p>\n<p>\n Machiavellian maneuver \n</p>\n<p>\n Here are three other reasons we may well see Covid-19 vaccine approval before early November. \n</p>\n<p>\n 1. President Trump has a penchant for timing policy decisions (such as China trade negotiation breakthroughs) to influence the markets and the electorate at key tactical turning points. So it won't be surprising if he exerts behind-the-scenes pressure to get vaccine approval to boost ratings and his odds against the Democrats, says Holz. Sounds Machiavellian. But welcome to politics. \n</p>\n<p>\n 2. The federal government is directly funding many of the vaccine-development programs. This \"raises the odds of near-term approval, given the inherent bias,\" says Holz. \n</p>\n<p>\n 3. Initial approval would be for emergency use only, which lowers the research hurdles for efficacy. \"The efficacy bar will be fairly low considering the toll Covid-19 has taken on the world over the past four to six months from a health and an economic standpoint,\" says Holz. \n</p>\n<p>\n Emergency-use approval seems like a letdown because it would take a lot of potential beneficiaries, including you and me, out of the equation. Health-care workers would be first in line. But limited-use approval would still be important for investors and the economy. \n</p>\n<p>\n Here's why. \n</p>\n<p>\n It would help the health-care system. Our leaders shut down much of the economy when Covid-19 struck because they had failed to prepare the health-care system for a pandemic. Having vaccines that might keep more front-line health care workers on the job and healthy -- boosting their morale and numbers -- would take some of the pressure off politicians to reimpose fresh lockdowns to \"flatten the curve\" in a resurgence. \n</p>\n<p>\n Will we get a resurgence? Probably, but not right now. I think the current resurgence data are just noise. The case-count data are based on non-random samples, which renders them meaningless, statistically. Florida tested more and found more, in lockstep. Exactly what you would expect. The Florida data do not show a resurgence in Covid-19, only more testing. \n</p>\n<p>\n But I do expect a meaningful resurgence starting in early October when the flu season begins. This is what happened with the swine flu in 2010 and the Spanish flu a century ago. However, the October resurgence won't be as scary as round one, because a lot of people will already have been exposed, and we will have better testing and tracking capabilities to support selective rather than blanket lockdowns. And we might even have a vaccine. \n</p>\n<p>\n Vaccine investors, hold the Champagne \n</p>\n<p>\n Early approval of vaccines before the elections probably wouldn't help investors in the companies developing them, including Moderna, AstraZeneca, Pfizer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$(PFE)$</a>, Johnson & Johnson <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">$(JNJ)$</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCVRZ\">Sanofi</a> (SAN.FR), Inovio Pharmaceuticals <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$(INO)$</a>, Novavax <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$(NVAX)$</a> and Arcturus Therapeutics <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARCT\">$(ARCT)$</a>, among others. \n</p>\n<p>\n That's because many of the stocks have already risen a lot, especially those closer to being pure plays because they are smaller. \n</p>\n<p>\n Next, it would be bad PR for vaccine producers to be seen making a lot of profits off a global pandemic health crisis. (The same goes for Covid-19 therapy developers including Gilead <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">$(GILD)$</a>, which is researching remdesivir as a treatment.) Given the government's role in funding research, it would likewise also pressure vaccine makers to cap pricing. \n</p>\n<p>\n Winners \n</p>\n<p>\n But many other investors would benefit from vaccine approvals. Biotech and pharma investors would get a boost if the public and politicians view them as having \"saved the day\" in the Covid-19 crisis. That would mean there would be less pressure for them to rein in drug pricing. \n</p>\n<p>\n That would support biotech and pharma companies and exchange traded funds including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> NASDAQ Biotechnology Index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBB\">$(IBB)$</a> and SPDR S&P Biotech <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XBI\">$(XBI)$</a>. They have been plagued for years by worries the government will regulate drug prices. \n</p>\n<p>\n \"In the end, a vaccine likely does more for the sector as whole from a sentiment standpoint,\" says Jefferies' Holz. \n</p>\n<p>\n Vaccine approval would also help cyclical and travel stocks because it would lower the odds of another full lockdown. It would also benefit a group I call \"public-gathering-place\" stocks. \n</p>\n<p>\n A portfolio of eight public gathering place stocks I suggested in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks about this topic in MarketWatch last month. \n</p>\n<p>\n I expect further gains from those stocks when vaccines are approved. My portfolio includes <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHDN\">Churchill Downs</a> (CHDN), Royal Caribbean Cruises <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">$(RCL)$</a>, Carnival <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL.UK\">$(CCL.UK)$</a>, Planet Fitness <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLNT\">$(PLNT)$</a> and Cedar Fair <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUN\">$(FUN)$</a> in amusement parks. \n</p>\n<p>\n At the time of publication, Michael Brush owned CHDN and CCL. Brush has suggested PFE, JNJ, SNY, INO, NVAX, IBB, XBI, CHDN, RCL, CCL, PLNT and FUN in his stock newsletter, Brush Up on Stocks . Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist Group, and he attended Columbia Business School. Follow Brush on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>: @mbrushstocks. \n</p>\n<p>\n -Michael Brush; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n June 19, 2020 06:09 ET (10:09 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's why the FDA may approve a Covid-19 vaccine before the November elections, according to Jefferies' biotech-research team</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's why the FDA may approve a Covid-19 vaccine before the November elections, according to Jefferies' biotech-research team\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-06-19 18:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW UPDATE: Here's why the FDA may approve a Covid-19 vaccine before the November elections, according to Jefferies' biotech-research team\n</p>\n<p>\n By Michael Brush, MarketWatch \n</p>\n<p>\n If true, any approval may not actually benefit a vaccine company, but instead other parts of the stock market \n</p>\n<p>\n As fears of a second wave of Covid-19 weigh on stocks, here's some potentially good news: A vaccine may be approved before the November election, according to a major biotechnology investing research firm. \n</p>\n<p>\n The prediction is a big deal for investors for three reasons. \n</p>\n<p>\n 1. It's credible because it comes from Jefferies, a high-profile brokerage in biotech and pharma that's wired in to literally hundreds of companies in the group, including the major vaccine developers. Jefferies has nine analysts covering the industry. \n</p>\n<p>\n 2. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of a vaccine ahead of voting could have an impact on the elections, possibly swaying the outcome in favor of President Trump. \n</p>\n<p>\n 3. For investors, early vaccine approval would be bullish for biotech stocks, cyclical stocks, travel stocks, the economy and the market overall. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have recovered most of their March losses, and the Nasdaq Composite Index recently hit new highs. They'll need some good news to support further advances. \n</p>\n<p>\n Ironically, early vaccine approvals probably won't mean much for investors who have already enjoyed good runs in vaccine developers. It might not mean much for most people worried about contracting the virus, either. Weird, right? We'll get to that later in this column. \n</p>\n<p>\n Bold prediction \n</p>\n<p>\n We hear time and again that vaccines take 10 to 15 years to research and bring to market. So given the limited timeline of Covid-19 vaccine safety and efficacy studies to date, the following is a bold projection. \n</p>\n<p>\n \"We believe the FDA will likely approve at least one vaccine prior to the November election,\" Jefferies health-care strategist Jared Holz said in an interview. \"Perhaps multiple vaccines could get the go-ahead at some point early in the fourth quarter and quell fears of a second wave of Covid-19.\" \n</p>\n<p>\n But this isn't too off the wall, even if Covid-19 vaccines have only been investigated for under a year. That's because Holz is basing his prediction, in part, on signals from vaccine-development companies. \n</p>\n<p>\n He says New York-based Jefferies has heard from several vaccine developers -- including Moderna <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$(MRNA)$</a> and AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) -- that an emergency authorization may happen before the elections. And just as important, they'll be close to having the capacity to produce millions of doses. \n</p>\n<p>\n \"That sets a very high bar, which no one is asking them to set,\" says Holz. \n</p>\n<p>\n Efficacy studies will continue. Moderna is moving into Phase II Covid-19 vaccine trials now, and it will start a larger Phase III clinical study at the beginning of July, the company has said. Both trials look at efficacy, and they will continue to examine safety. Many other vaccine companies are on a similar timeline. \n</p>\n<p>\n Machiavellian maneuver \n</p>\n<p>\n Here are three other reasons we may well see Covid-19 vaccine approval before early November. \n</p>\n<p>\n 1. President Trump has a penchant for timing policy decisions (such as China trade negotiation breakthroughs) to influence the markets and the electorate at key tactical turning points. So it won't be surprising if he exerts behind-the-scenes pressure to get vaccine approval to boost ratings and his odds against the Democrats, says Holz. Sounds Machiavellian. But welcome to politics. \n</p>\n<p>\n 2. The federal government is directly funding many of the vaccine-development programs. This \"raises the odds of near-term approval, given the inherent bias,\" says Holz. \n</p>\n<p>\n 3. Initial approval would be for emergency use only, which lowers the research hurdles for efficacy. \"The efficacy bar will be fairly low considering the toll Covid-19 has taken on the world over the past four to six months from a health and an economic standpoint,\" says Holz. \n</p>\n<p>\n Emergency-use approval seems like a letdown because it would take a lot of potential beneficiaries, including you and me, out of the equation. Health-care workers would be first in line. But limited-use approval would still be important for investors and the economy. \n</p>\n<p>\n Here's why. \n</p>\n<p>\n It would help the health-care system. Our leaders shut down much of the economy when Covid-19 struck because they had failed to prepare the health-care system for a pandemic. Having vaccines that might keep more front-line health care workers on the job and healthy -- boosting their morale and numbers -- would take some of the pressure off politicians to reimpose fresh lockdowns to \"flatten the curve\" in a resurgence. \n</p>\n<p>\n Will we get a resurgence? Probably, but not right now. I think the current resurgence data are just noise. The case-count data are based on non-random samples, which renders them meaningless, statistically. Florida tested more and found more, in lockstep. Exactly what you would expect. The Florida data do not show a resurgence in Covid-19, only more testing. \n</p>\n<p>\n But I do expect a meaningful resurgence starting in early October when the flu season begins. This is what happened with the swine flu in 2010 and the Spanish flu a century ago. However, the October resurgence won't be as scary as round one, because a lot of people will already have been exposed, and we will have better testing and tracking capabilities to support selective rather than blanket lockdowns. And we might even have a vaccine. \n</p>\n<p>\n Vaccine investors, hold the Champagne \n</p>\n<p>\n Early approval of vaccines before the elections probably wouldn't help investors in the companies developing them, including Moderna, AstraZeneca, Pfizer <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">$(PFE)$</a>, Johnson & Johnson <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">$(JNJ)$</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCVRZ\">Sanofi</a> (SAN.FR), Inovio Pharmaceuticals <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INO\">$(INO)$</a>, Novavax <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">$(NVAX)$</a> and Arcturus Therapeutics <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARCT\">$(ARCT)$</a>, among others. \n</p>\n<p>\n That's because many of the stocks have already risen a lot, especially those closer to being pure plays because they are smaller. \n</p>\n<p>\n Next, it would be bad PR for vaccine producers to be seen making a lot of profits off a global pandemic health crisis. (The same goes for Covid-19 therapy developers including Gilead <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">$(GILD)$</a>, which is researching remdesivir as a treatment.) Given the government's role in funding research, it would likewise also pressure vaccine makers to cap pricing. \n</p>\n<p>\n Winners \n</p>\n<p>\n But many other investors would benefit from vaccine approvals. Biotech and pharma investors would get a boost if the public and politicians view them as having \"saved the day\" in the Covid-19 crisis. That would mean there would be less pressure for them to rein in drug pricing. \n</p>\n<p>\n That would support biotech and pharma companies and exchange traded funds including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> NASDAQ Biotechnology Index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBB\">$(IBB)$</a> and SPDR S&P Biotech <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XBI\">$(XBI)$</a>. They have been plagued for years by worries the government will regulate drug prices. \n</p>\n<p>\n \"In the end, a vaccine likely does more for the sector as whole from a sentiment standpoint,\" says Jefferies' Holz. \n</p>\n<p>\n Vaccine approval would also help cyclical and travel stocks because it would lower the odds of another full lockdown. It would also benefit a group I call \"public-gathering-place\" stocks. \n</p>\n<p>\n A portfolio of eight public gathering place stocks I suggested in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks about this topic in MarketWatch last month. \n</p>\n<p>\n I expect further gains from those stocks when vaccines are approved. My portfolio includes <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHDN\">Churchill Downs</a> (CHDN), Royal Caribbean Cruises <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">$(RCL)$</a>, Carnival <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL.UK\">$(CCL.UK)$</a>, Planet Fitness <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLNT\">$(PLNT)$</a> and Cedar Fair <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUN\">$(FUN)$</a> in amusement parks. \n</p>\n<p>\n At the time of publication, Michael Brush owned CHDN and CCL. Brush has suggested PFE, JNJ, SNY, INO, NVAX, IBB, XBI, CHDN, RCL, CCL, PLNT and FUN in his stock newsletter, Brush Up on Stocks . Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist Group, and he attended Columbia Business School. Follow Brush on <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>: @mbrushstocks. \n</p>\n<p>\n -Michael Brush; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n June 19, 2020 06:09 ET (10:09 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GILD":"吉利德科学","XBI":"SPDR S&P Biotech ETF","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","IBB":"生物科技指数ETF-iShares Nasdaq","INO":"伊诺维奥制药","AZN":"阿斯利康","ARCT":"Arcturus Therapeutics Ltd.","SNY":"赛诺菲安万特","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","JNJ":"强生","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2044553590","content_text":"MW UPDATE: Here's why the FDA may approve a Covid-19 vaccine before the November elections, according to Jefferies' biotech-research team\n\n\n By Michael Brush, MarketWatch \n\n\n If true, any approval may not actually benefit a vaccine company, but instead other parts of the stock market \n\n\n As fears of a second wave of Covid-19 weigh on stocks, here's some potentially good news: A vaccine may be approved before the November election, according to a major biotechnology investing research firm. \n\n\n The prediction is a big deal for investors for three reasons. \n\n\n 1. It's credible because it comes from Jefferies, a high-profile brokerage in biotech and pharma that's wired in to literally hundreds of companies in the group, including the major vaccine developers. Jefferies has nine analysts covering the industry. \n\n\n 2. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of a vaccine ahead of voting could have an impact on the elections, possibly swaying the outcome in favor of President Trump. \n\n\n 3. For investors, early vaccine approval would be bullish for biotech stocks, cyclical stocks, travel stocks, the economy and the market overall. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have recovered most of their March losses, and the Nasdaq Composite Index recently hit new highs. They'll need some good news to support further advances. \n\n\n Ironically, early vaccine approvals probably won't mean much for investors who have already enjoyed good runs in vaccine developers. It might not mean much for most people worried about contracting the virus, either. Weird, right? We'll get to that later in this column. \n\n\n Bold prediction \n\n\n We hear time and again that vaccines take 10 to 15 years to research and bring to market. So given the limited timeline of Covid-19 vaccine safety and efficacy studies to date, the following is a bold projection. \n\n\n \"We believe the FDA will likely approve at least one vaccine prior to the November election,\" Jefferies health-care strategist Jared Holz said in an interview. \"Perhaps multiple vaccines could get the go-ahead at some point early in the fourth quarter and quell fears of a second wave of Covid-19.\" \n\n\n But this isn't too off the wall, even if Covid-19 vaccines have only been investigated for under a year. That's because Holz is basing his prediction, in part, on signals from vaccine-development companies. \n\n\n He says New York-based Jefferies has heard from several vaccine developers -- including Moderna $(MRNA)$ and AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) -- that an emergency authorization may happen before the elections. And just as important, they'll be close to having the capacity to produce millions of doses. \n\n\n \"That sets a very high bar, which no one is asking them to set,\" says Holz. \n\n\n Efficacy studies will continue. Moderna is moving into Phase II Covid-19 vaccine trials now, and it will start a larger Phase III clinical study at the beginning of July, the company has said. Both trials look at efficacy, and they will continue to examine safety. Many other vaccine companies are on a similar timeline. \n\n\n Machiavellian maneuver \n\n\n Here are three other reasons we may well see Covid-19 vaccine approval before early November. \n\n\n 1. President Trump has a penchant for timing policy decisions (such as China trade negotiation breakthroughs) to influence the markets and the electorate at key tactical turning points. So it won't be surprising if he exerts behind-the-scenes pressure to get vaccine approval to boost ratings and his odds against the Democrats, says Holz. Sounds Machiavellian. But welcome to politics. \n\n\n 2. The federal government is directly funding many of the vaccine-development programs. This \"raises the odds of near-term approval, given the inherent bias,\" says Holz. \n\n\n 3. Initial approval would be for emergency use only, which lowers the research hurdles for efficacy. \"The efficacy bar will be fairly low considering the toll Covid-19 has taken on the world over the past four to six months from a health and an economic standpoint,\" says Holz. \n\n\n Emergency-use approval seems like a letdown because it would take a lot of potential beneficiaries, including you and me, out of the equation. Health-care workers would be first in line. But limited-use approval would still be important for investors and the economy. \n\n\n Here's why. \n\n\n It would help the health-care system. Our leaders shut down much of the economy when Covid-19 struck because they had failed to prepare the health-care system for a pandemic. Having vaccines that might keep more front-line health care workers on the job and healthy -- boosting their morale and numbers -- would take some of the pressure off politicians to reimpose fresh lockdowns to \"flatten the curve\" in a resurgence. \n\n\n Will we get a resurgence? Probably, but not right now. I think the current resurgence data are just noise. The case-count data are based on non-random samples, which renders them meaningless, statistically. Florida tested more and found more, in lockstep. Exactly what you would expect. The Florida data do not show a resurgence in Covid-19, only more testing. \n\n\n But I do expect a meaningful resurgence starting in early October when the flu season begins. This is what happened with the swine flu in 2010 and the Spanish flu a century ago. However, the October resurgence won't be as scary as round one, because a lot of people will already have been exposed, and we will have better testing and tracking capabilities to support selective rather than blanket lockdowns. And we might even have a vaccine. \n\n\n Vaccine investors, hold the Champagne \n\n\n Early approval of vaccines before the elections probably wouldn't help investors in the companies developing them, including Moderna, AstraZeneca, Pfizer $(PFE)$, Johnson & Johnson $(JNJ)$, Sanofi (SAN.FR), Inovio Pharmaceuticals $(INO)$, Novavax $(NVAX)$ and Arcturus Therapeutics $(ARCT)$, among others. \n\n\n That's because many of the stocks have already risen a lot, especially those closer to being pure plays because they are smaller. \n\n\n Next, it would be bad PR for vaccine producers to be seen making a lot of profits off a global pandemic health crisis. (The same goes for Covid-19 therapy developers including Gilead $(GILD)$, which is researching remdesivir as a treatment.) Given the government's role in funding research, it would likewise also pressure vaccine makers to cap pricing. \n\n\n Winners \n\n\n But many other investors would benefit from vaccine approvals. Biotech and pharma investors would get a boost if the public and politicians view them as having \"saved the day\" in the Covid-19 crisis. That would mean there would be less pressure for them to rein in drug pricing. \n\n\n That would support biotech and pharma companies and exchange traded funds including iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index $(IBB)$ and SPDR S&P Biotech $(XBI)$. They have been plagued for years by worries the government will regulate drug prices. \n\n\n \"In the end, a vaccine likely does more for the sector as whole from a sentiment standpoint,\" says Jefferies' Holz. \n\n\n Vaccine approval would also help cyclical and travel stocks because it would lower the odds of another full lockdown. It would also benefit a group I call \"public-gathering-place\" stocks. \n\n\n A portfolio of eight public gathering place stocks I suggested in my stock letter, Brush Up on Stocks about this topic in MarketWatch last month. \n\n\n I expect further gains from those stocks when vaccines are approved. My portfolio includes Churchill Downs (CHDN), Royal Caribbean Cruises $(RCL)$, Carnival $(CCL.UK)$, Planet Fitness $(PLNT)$ and Cedar Fair $(FUN)$ in amusement parks. \n\n\n At the time of publication, Michael Brush owned CHDN and CCL. Brush has suggested PFE, JNJ, SNY, INO, NVAX, IBB, XBI, CHDN, RCL, CCL, PLNT and FUN in his stock newsletter, Brush Up on Stocks . Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist Group, and he attended Columbia Business School. Follow Brush on Twitter: @mbrushstocks. \n\n\n -Michael Brush; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n\n\n \n\n\n (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n June 19, 2020 06:09 ET (10:09 GMT)\n\n\n Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":957773049,"gmtCreate":1593595712481,"gmtModify":1704202476623,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来的自述,商业逻辑,客户痛点,破局方式","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来的自述,商业逻辑,客户痛点,破局方式","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来的自述,商业逻辑,客户痛点,破局方式","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/957773049","repostId":"2047617389","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2047617389","pubTimestamp":1593389219,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2047617389?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-29 08:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来秦力洪:到底谁在失血?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2047617389","media":"汽车产经网","summary":"但在6月底汽车产经专访蔚来总裁秦力洪时,我们感受到的却是整个车市中一份罕见的淡定和冲劲。而秦力洪认为,现在的成绩这还不足以给蔚来定性。2防止用户体验滑落日前,作为蔚来的第三款车,中型纯电SUV EC6已在2020年粤港澳大湾区车展中亮相,预计7月上市、9月开始交付。3到底是谁在失血?","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>秦力洪:到底谁在失血? 来源:汽车产经网</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020629/200/w1080h720/20200629/be48-ivrxcex1324274.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>“蔚来很好,但我建议大家认真研究下是谁快死了。你真的没有看到中国车市的什么地方在失血。”</p><p>文 | 白朝阳、赵玲伟</p><p>“前年捷豹I-Pace上市的时候,就有人警告我说蔚来可以关门了,但整个2019年上半年I-Pace在中国只卖了40多台,而蔚来重庆分公司每月可以卖80台;</p><p>去年,我又被警告说,奔驰EQC、奥迪e-tron都要上市,蔚来可以关门了,上个月前两者销量之和不到200台,蔚来ES6和ES8总销量3400多台,是它们的17倍。”</p><p>刚刚走过自己的“最惨之年”,蔚来又恰逢全球的“最惨之年”。但在6月底汽车产经专访蔚来总裁秦力洪时,我们感受到的却是整个车市中一份罕见的淡定和冲劲。</p><p>今年1-5月,国内新能源汽车销量,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>北汽等本土传统车企降幅高达60%,国际传统车企巨头下降了4%。</p><p>而蔚来的成绩呢,其2020年1-5月的销量同比去年增长超过68%。2020年第一季度,纯电SUV销量冠军车型被ES6收入囊中。在5月份的车辆上险数据中,40万元以上的中大型SUV领域,蔚来ES8排名第八。值得注意的是,该统计涉及的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>中大型SUV车型包括燃油车、进口车等所有品牌,蔚来是TOP 10榜单中唯一的中国品牌。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020629/33/w1080h553/20200629/9e2f-ivrxcex1324272.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>截至目前,蔚来累计交付超4万辆车,拥有120万APP注册用户且日活12万+,直营渠道今年扩充至200家左右,更重要的是,蔚来拿到合肥政府70亿资金及资源支持……</p><p>而秦力洪认为,现在的成绩这还不足以给蔚来定性。“要完成整个创业周期,可能需要1~2代产品的转通。对于蔚来,可能要到第10年来评价才比较合理。”</p><p>“大家天天都觉得我们要完蛋,但我们一直在增长,这才是值得大家仔细看一看的。”</p><p>那么,该如何看待蔚来的增长?</p><p><font>1</font></p><p><font>直营模式不是坑,是制度优势</font></p><p>距离奔驰关闭位于北京三里屯的Mercedes me体验店的日期越来越近了。6月30日,奔驰将彻底放弃这家展示其高端品牌格调的“吞金兽”。</p><p>疫情来袭加之市场遇冷,全球性的车市寒冬让各大车企不得不紧衣缩食开始御寒。在歌舞升平时建起的一些地标性品牌殿堂首当其冲,为企业的生存献了身。</p><p>除了Mercedes me体验店,北京另一家高逼格车企体验店要数矗立在东方广场的Nio House(蔚来中心)。老牌车企巨头的体验店败走三里屯,而常常站在舆论潮头的新势力蔚来,其Nio House倒是站稳了寸土寸金的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600859\">王府井</a>。</p><p>相比Mercedes me于奔驰只在品牌层面意义,Nio House于蔚来的意义更加深远,它所代表的直营模式和用户思维是蔚来的根基。</p><p>而这,也恰恰是外界质疑蔚来的关键点之一。很多评论认为,蔚来最终会被其引以为豪的用户运营拖垮。</p><p>但在秦力洪看来,事情可能恰恰相反,传统的4S经销商模式,正在拖垮传统主机厂。</p><p>秦力洪向汽车产经讲述了这样一个经历,“我的一位朋友碰到过这样的情况:一台很新的车被4S店要求换发动机。我对他说,不做道德判断,这只是因为4S店到了月底,还有两个发动机更换的指标没有完成而已。这种过度诊断、过度维修,都是4S体制的副产品。”</p><p>“经销商是一个盈利主体,主机厂没有权利去要求经销商每项服务的细致程度,他们也不会为此牺牲利益。”秦力洪对汽车产经表示,经销商模式首先要确保自己的盈利情况,无法保障用户的权益,在市场不景气的时候,伤害用户补救自己的事情就更多了。</p><p>秦力洪解释,所谓的经销商网络就是拿社会的钱去投资渠道,但是要通过几年的时间把本金和利息还给经销商。而直营模式并不等于更贵,只是初期投入比较多。从5~10年的周期来看,直营会更便宜。“这个道理非常简单,没有中间商赚差价,用户能得到更好的服务,蔚来也能获得相对低的成本。”</p><p>直营模式“费钱”,蔚来也在学着省钱。据介绍,接下来,蔚来不再以NIO House般高调的方式铺设开来,而是以更轻投入的NIO Space(蔚来空间)为主战场,NIO Space在建设、租金以及营销费用相对于NIO House都会大幅降低,其平均成本在100万元左右。</p><p>“但是,每个独立的地理中心还都应该有一个NIO House,因为品牌是需要殿堂的。”</p><p><font>2</font></p><p><font>防止用户体验滑落</font></p><p>日前,作为蔚来的第三款车,中型纯电SUV EC6已在2020年粤港澳大湾区车展中亮相,预计7月上市、9月开始交付。EC6的上市势必将为蔚来带来新一波的销量增长。</p><p>外界担心,随着用户越来越多,蔚来对每一位用户的关怀是否会被稀释。</p><p>秦力洪认为,规模与用户体验并不成反比,而是一个正向的循环,“我们的保有量如果够大,就说明销量够好,进而说明公司有足够的营收。这就会让我们铺设服务设施和团队更有手段,而且在局部能够形成规模效应。”</p><p>“过去用户少,服务用户是更贵的,因为规模效益没有形成。比如当时移动充电的换电站资产利用效率很低,那么摊到每一次服务其实成本更高。”</p><p>但他也承认,最近蔚来的用户增长比较快,用户运营团队也正在调整战术,局部可能有跟不上的地方,但这是暂时的。“虽然我们的总体用户满意度还维持在很高的位置,但服务不满意的案例确实在增加。2020年的下半年到2021年,蔚来团队的主要工作除了卖车以外,是防止服务体验的滑落。”</p><p>巩固用户体验不意味着无止境的投入,而是要考虑在经济和高效的前提下,回收一部分精力,“整个需求和服务能力是一个交替上升的过程,总是被需求引领去响应式地打补丁,用户满意度就会下降。所以如何平衡对管理团队来说是一件非常艺术的事情。蔚来的服务设施是比较领先的,只是可能过去领先两步,现在团队在考虑回到领先半步。通过不断预测服务中的供需关系,把张力控制在可以承受的范围里,并且能够及时补足。”</p><p>除了在服务能力上的张弛有度,蔚来的营销策略也是车企中比较前瞻的理念。</p><p>在江湖中,关于蔚来的传说毁誉参半,“蔚来黑”和“蔚来吹”代表了南辕北辙的两种极端评价。</p><p>所以,蔚来目前的营销的核心是让更多人通过亲身体验了解和认知蔚来。蔚来推出了送车上门的服务,用户还可以享受48/72小时的换车计划,通过三天的深度体验,了解电动车的优劣。“这种广泛的体验式营销是有收获的,我们的试驾量能够做到去年的三倍以上。”</p><p>销量与试驾量的上升,说明蔚来的产品正在走出争议,受到越来越多用户的认可。内有产品和口碑的积累,外有资本资源助力,蔚来的未来正在逐渐明朗起来。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020629/331/w732h399/20200629/67b9-ivrxcex1324338.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>3</font></p><p><font>到底是谁在失血?</font></p><p>”一个时代结束了。从工业视角看待汽车产业的年代可能已经过了,现在要带着科技的、时尚和零售的视角来看待这个产业,才有可能把住脉搏。”</p><p>秦力洪的判断是,中国汽车行业下一个十年的主旋律是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电动汽车,传统燃油车领域,中高端产品将不断抢占入门级产品的市场,以及那些因政策而生的不合市场规律的产品的份额。</p><p>但显然,这条路也并不好走。</p><p>目前,纯电动车目前只占整体汽车市场4%左右的市场份额,距离成为主流还有相当大的进步空间,而高端纯电动车就是一个更小的市场了。</p><p>并且,看到中高端品牌份额的提升后,自主品牌向上的冲劲更足,合资品牌的电动化产品也逐个推出。新造车势力提早起跑的优势将逐渐褪去,接下来就是真刀真枪的比拼。</p><p>此外,“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>危机”早已快速笼罩在全球所有车企的头上。尽管在新能源汽车“拓荒”阶段,特斯拉抢夺燃油车市场的贡献掩盖了其在细分领域中竞争的事实,但所有人都在担心它终将在屠龙之后,变成一条更加强势的龙。</p><p>市场现状艰难,未来的路也艰难。难怪最近李斌、何小鹏和李想挤在一张照片里,自嘲“三个苦逼,在忆苦思变”了。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020629/314/w1080h834/20200629/b0e6-ivrxcex1324336.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>更为无奈的是,质疑还在继续。秦力洪说,即使蔚来销量一路上扬,股价也从一年前的1.32美元低谷涨回6.9美元,还有朋友问我,特斯拉卖得那么好,你们是不是要关门了?</p><p>“我建议大家认真研究下是谁快死了。你真的没有看到中国车市的什么地方在失血。”</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020629/200/w1080h720/20200629/4f5d-ivrxcex1324393.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>右:蔚来总裁 秦力洪</p><p>左:汽车产经副主编 白朝阳</p><div></div><p>【易境思营销学院】</p><p>【昊昊下午茶】</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来秦力洪:到底谁在失血?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来秦力洪:到底谁在失血?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-29 08:06 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-29/doc-iirczymk9454870.shtml><strong>汽车产经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:蔚来秦力洪:到底谁在失血? 来源:汽车产经网“蔚来很好,但我建议大家认真研究下是谁快死了。你真的没有看到中国车市的什么地方在失血。”文 | 白朝阳、赵玲伟“前年捷豹I-Pace上市的时候,就有人警告我说蔚来可以关门了,但整个2019年上半年I-Pace在中国只卖了40多台,而蔚来重庆分公司每月可以卖80台;去年,我又被警告说,奔驰EQC、奥迪e-tron都要上市,蔚来可以关门了,上个月前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-29/doc-iirczymk9454870.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-29/doc-iirczymk9454870.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2047617389","content_text":"原标题:蔚来秦力洪:到底谁在失血? 来源:汽车产经网“蔚来很好,但我建议大家认真研究下是谁快死了。你真的没有看到中国车市的什么地方在失血。”文 | 白朝阳、赵玲伟“前年捷豹I-Pace上市的时候,就有人警告我说蔚来可以关门了,但整个2019年上半年I-Pace在中国只卖了40多台,而蔚来重庆分公司每月可以卖80台;去年,我又被警告说,奔驰EQC、奥迪e-tron都要上市,蔚来可以关门了,上个月前两者销量之和不到200台,蔚来ES6和ES8总销量3400多台,是它们的17倍。”刚刚走过自己的“最惨之年”,蔚来又恰逢全球的“最惨之年”。但在6月底汽车产经专访蔚来总裁秦力洪时,我们感受到的却是整个车市中一份罕见的淡定和冲劲。今年1-5月,国内新能源汽车销量,比亚迪北汽等本土传统车企降幅高达60%,国际传统车企巨头下降了4%。而蔚来的成绩呢,其2020年1-5月的销量同比去年增长超过68%。2020年第一季度,纯电SUV销量冠军车型被ES6收入囊中。在5月份的车辆上险数据中,40万元以上的中大型SUV领域,蔚来ES8排名第八。值得注意的是,该统计涉及的豪华中大型SUV车型包括燃油车、进口车等所有品牌,蔚来是TOP 10榜单中唯一的中国品牌。截至目前,蔚来累计交付超4万辆车,拥有120万APP注册用户且日活12万+,直营渠道今年扩充至200家左右,更重要的是,蔚来拿到合肥政府70亿资金及资源支持……而秦力洪认为,现在的成绩这还不足以给蔚来定性。“要完成整个创业周期,可能需要1~2代产品的转通。对于蔚来,可能要到第10年来评价才比较合理。”“大家天天都觉得我们要完蛋,但我们一直在增长,这才是值得大家仔细看一看的。”那么,该如何看待蔚来的增长?1直营模式不是坑,是制度优势距离奔驰关闭位于北京三里屯的Mercedes me体验店的日期越来越近了。6月30日,奔驰将彻底放弃这家展示其高端品牌格调的“吞金兽”。疫情来袭加之市场遇冷,全球性的车市寒冬让各大车企不得不紧衣缩食开始御寒。在歌舞升平时建起的一些地标性品牌殿堂首当其冲,为企业的生存献了身。除了Mercedes me体验店,北京另一家高逼格车企体验店要数矗立在东方广场的Nio House(蔚来中心)。老牌车企巨头的体验店败走三里屯,而常常站在舆论潮头的新势力蔚来,其Nio House倒是站稳了寸土寸金的王府井。相比Mercedes me于奔驰只在品牌层面意义,Nio House于蔚来的意义更加深远,它所代表的直营模式和用户思维是蔚来的根基。而这,也恰恰是外界质疑蔚来的关键点之一。很多评论认为,蔚来最终会被其引以为豪的用户运营拖垮。但在秦力洪看来,事情可能恰恰相反,传统的4S经销商模式,正在拖垮传统主机厂。秦力洪向汽车产经讲述了这样一个经历,“我的一位朋友碰到过这样的情况:一台很新的车被4S店要求换发动机。我对他说,不做道德判断,这只是因为4S店到了月底,还有两个发动机更换的指标没有完成而已。这种过度诊断、过度维修,都是4S体制的副产品。”“经销商是一个盈利主体,主机厂没有权利去要求经销商每项服务的细致程度,他们也不会为此牺牲利益。”秦力洪对汽车产经表示,经销商模式首先要确保自己的盈利情况,无法保障用户的权益,在市场不景气的时候,伤害用户补救自己的事情就更多了。秦力洪解释,所谓的经销商网络就是拿社会的钱去投资渠道,但是要通过几年的时间把本金和利息还给经销商。而直营模式并不等于更贵,只是初期投入比较多。从5~10年的周期来看,直营会更便宜。“这个道理非常简单,没有中间商赚差价,用户能得到更好的服务,蔚来也能获得相对低的成本。”直营模式“费钱”,蔚来也在学着省钱。据介绍,接下来,蔚来不再以NIO House般高调的方式铺设开来,而是以更轻投入的NIO Space(蔚来空间)为主战场,NIO Space在建设、租金以及营销费用相对于NIO House都会大幅降低,其平均成本在100万元左右。“但是,每个独立的地理中心还都应该有一个NIO House,因为品牌是需要殿堂的。”2防止用户体验滑落日前,作为蔚来的第三款车,中型纯电SUV EC6已在2020年粤港澳大湾区车展中亮相,预计7月上市、9月开始交付。EC6的上市势必将为蔚来带来新一波的销量增长。外界担心,随着用户越来越多,蔚来对每一位用户的关怀是否会被稀释。秦力洪认为,规模与用户体验并不成反比,而是一个正向的循环,“我们的保有量如果够大,就说明销量够好,进而说明公司有足够的营收。这就会让我们铺设服务设施和团队更有手段,而且在局部能够形成规模效应。”“过去用户少,服务用户是更贵的,因为规模效益没有形成。比如当时移动充电的换电站资产利用效率很低,那么摊到每一次服务其实成本更高。”但他也承认,最近蔚来的用户增长比较快,用户运营团队也正在调整战术,局部可能有跟不上的地方,但这是暂时的。“虽然我们的总体用户满意度还维持在很高的位置,但服务不满意的案例确实在增加。2020年的下半年到2021年,蔚来团队的主要工作除了卖车以外,是防止服务体验的滑落。”巩固用户体验不意味着无止境的投入,而是要考虑在经济和高效的前提下,回收一部分精力,“整个需求和服务能力是一个交替上升的过程,总是被需求引领去响应式地打补丁,用户满意度就会下降。所以如何平衡对管理团队来说是一件非常艺术的事情。蔚来的服务设施是比较领先的,只是可能过去领先两步,现在团队在考虑回到领先半步。通过不断预测服务中的供需关系,把张力控制在可以承受的范围里,并且能够及时补足。”除了在服务能力上的张弛有度,蔚来的营销策略也是车企中比较前瞻的理念。在江湖中,关于蔚来的传说毁誉参半,“蔚来黑”和“蔚来吹”代表了南辕北辙的两种极端评价。所以,蔚来目前的营销的核心是让更多人通过亲身体验了解和认知蔚来。蔚来推出了送车上门的服务,用户还可以享受48/72小时的换车计划,通过三天的深度体验,了解电动车的优劣。“这种广泛的体验式营销是有收获的,我们的试驾量能够做到去年的三倍以上。”销量与试驾量的上升,说明蔚来的产品正在走出争议,受到越来越多用户的认可。内有产品和口碑的积累,外有资本资源助力,蔚来的未来正在逐渐明朗起来。3到底是谁在失血?”一个时代结束了。从工业视角看待汽车产业的年代可能已经过了,现在要带着科技的、时尚和零售的视角来看待这个产业,才有可能把住脉搏。”秦力洪的判断是,中国汽车行业下一个十年的主旋律是智能电动汽车,传统燃油车领域,中高端产品将不断抢占入门级产品的市场,以及那些因政策而生的不合市场规律的产品的份额。但显然,这条路也并不好走。目前,纯电动车目前只占整体汽车市场4%左右的市场份额,距离成为主流还有相当大的进步空间,而高端纯电动车就是一个更小的市场了。并且,看到中高端品牌份额的提升后,自主品牌向上的冲劲更足,合资品牌的电动化产品也逐个推出。新造车势力提早起跑的优势将逐渐褪去,接下来就是真刀真枪的比拼。此外,“特斯拉危机”早已快速笼罩在全球所有车企的头上。尽管在新能源汽车“拓荒”阶段,特斯拉抢夺燃油车市场的贡献掩盖了其在细分领域中竞争的事实,但所有人都在担心它终将在屠龙之后,变成一条更加强势的龙。市场现状艰难,未来的路也艰难。难怪最近李斌、何小鹏和李想挤在一张照片里,自嘲“三个苦逼,在忆苦思变”了。更为无奈的是,质疑还在继续。秦力洪说,即使蔚来销量一路上扬,股价也从一年前的1.32美元低谷涨回6.9美元,还有朋友问我,特斯拉卖得那么好,你们是不是要关门了?“我建议大家认真研究下是谁快死了。你真的没有看到中国车市的什么地方在失血。”右:蔚来总裁 秦力洪左:汽车产经副主编 白朝阳【易境思营销学院】【昊昊下午茶】","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976399181,"gmtCreate":1599578202143,"gmtModify":1703818955022,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>持续追踪并综合最新信息,是股票长拿的必要动作","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>持续追踪并综合最新信息,是股票长拿的必要动作","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$持续追踪并综合最新信息,是股票长拿的必要动作","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976399181","repostId":"1134332137","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134332137","pubTimestamp":1599477529,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134332137?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-07 19:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉八折甩卖,梭哈不?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134332137","media":" 美港电讯","summary":"没有一直涨的股票,即便它是特斯拉!谁能想到,特斯拉如日中天的股价都敌不过英国资产管理公司Baillie Gifford减持。坚持持仓已七年之久的“死多头”Baillie Gifford突然高位减持,震惊了华尔街,特斯拉股价随即暴跌,触发环球科技股跌势,并间接引发了美股小股灾。而引发科技股滑铁卢的元凶之一,就是今年美股中最牛、截至8月底已上涨近500%的特斯拉。周五凌晨盘后交易中,特斯拉一度再跌超4%至390美元,以此计算市值大减1040亿美元。","content":"<p>没有一直涨的股票,即便它是特斯拉!</p><p>本周我们就见识了一场看似由机构减持引发的多空大博弈。</p><p><b>谁能想到,特斯拉如日中天的股价都敌不过英国资产管理公司Baillie Gifford减持。</b></p><p><b>坚持持仓已七年之久的“死多头”Baillie Gifford突然高位减持,震惊了华尔街,特斯拉股价随即暴跌,触发环球科技股跌势,并间接引发了美股小股灾。</b></p><p>问题是,经历本周的大战过后,哪一方依然实力在线?</p><p><b>01特斯拉突然“倒车”</b></p><p>先来看看战况有多激烈!</p><p><b>从周四(9月3日)晚间说起,科技股可谓引爆了美股小股灾,三大股指全线收跌,</b>道指收跌超800点,跌幅2.78%;标普500指数收跌3.51%,纳指收跌4.96%,均创6月11日以来最大单日跌幅。</p><p>到了周五,美股延续跌势,三大指数全线收跌,纳指依然跌得最惨,本周累跌超3%,创三月美股闪崩以来最大单周跌幅。</p><p><b>而引发科技股滑铁卢的元凶之一,就是今年美股中最牛、截至8月底已上涨近500%的特斯拉。</b></p><p>周四特斯拉迅速暴挫逾10%,11:40左右跌幅甚至一度超过15%,创下5个月内最大跌幅的记录。近三日的累计最大跌幅近20%,一度从502.49美元的最高价大跌超100美元,市值缩水超930亿美元。</p><p>周五凌晨盘后交易中,特斯拉一度再跌超4%至390美元,以此计算市值大减1040亿美元。若从周二的高位算起(盘中创出502.49美元的历史新高),已经跌了25%进入技术熊市。</p><p>但多头继续发力之下,特斯拉周五盘中强势反弹,一度涨超5%,最终收盘上涨2.78%,报418.32美元。之后,未被纳入标普500指数的消息又令其盘后一度大跌7%,较历史高位已经累计下跌超20%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f074991dcff77b4b7f6685a431bbf19\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"534\"></p><p>一直以来科技板块在疫情期间受资金吹捧,不少股份更屡创新高,特斯拉更是最耀眼的明星。</p><p><b>此前为了鼓励新的散户入场,特斯拉在8月11日还刚刚搞完了“高送转”,进行了历史上首次拆股。</b>每拥有1股特斯拉股票的投资者都将额外获得4股股票(相当于A股10送转40),此后股价一路飙升了50%,8月的累计涨幅超过了80%,市值一度突破4400亿美元。</p><p>零对冲评论称,特斯拉24小时内就跌去了半个埃克森美孚,如果不是进行了拆股操作,特斯拉就“全完了”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a06d463d0bee48cdfa51c4ea684610b\" tg-width=\"702\" tg-height=\"231\"></p><p><b>所以说,这种突如其来的暴跌显得十分可疑,确切原因也难以描述。</b></p><p>数据确实显示,苹果和特斯拉相继拆股以来,它们的交易量暴增,这几天还导致多家券商服务器宕机。</p><p>据彭博,特斯拉在8月31日的成交量接近1.2亿股,相比之下,8月27日和8月28日只有约2000万股。</p><p><b>9月1日上午,Robinhood的用户收到了下图中的通知,称由于交易活动增多,该应用程序的运行受到影响被延误,引发大量用户在社交媒体上投诉抱怨。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c0d0dbc2d6f5bb7dcac8793f5d768e\" tg-width=\"1195\" tg-height=\"375\"></p><p>除Robinhood外,据Fox Business 8月31日报道,宏达理财(TD Ameritrade)和嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)服务也出现中断。</p><p><b>除交易活动暴增外,期权数据还显示,这几天特斯拉的看空情绪增强,9月2日特斯拉的认沽比率为40%,认购比率为60%,3日两者分别为45.2%和54.8%,但4日认沽比率又有所回落至44.8%。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ddc01a8eff5ee865dc013e85b3ca9cd\" tg-width=\"1608\" tg-height=\"542\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e668d0b8737337f36f7fc4d6b0a8dd\" tg-width=\"1597\" tg-height=\"237\"></p><p><b>02外部最大股东砍仓惹祸</b></p><p>我们猜测导火索是一些神秘减持导致散户信念突然动摇,从而引起恐慌,造成了踩踏。</p><p><b>1、最直接的原因是,就在周四特斯拉股价暴跌的前一天,其最大机构股东Baillie Gifford刚刚报告了大幅减持信息。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f008024c3197a1b575ad6497aad311d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"></p><p>特斯拉的最大机构股东、英国基金公司Baillie Gifford在周三向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的13G报表中,报告了减持行为。</p><p><b>报表显示,截至2020年8月31日,其特斯拉持股由2月时占7.67%,减至8月的4.25%,涉及减持1928.4万股(按拆股后计算)。如果按照特斯拉8月31日的收盘价每股498.32美元计算,总套现金额为96.1亿美元。</b></p><p>虽然减持后Baillie Gifford仍持有特斯拉普通股3107.47万股,同时解释减持完全是因为其股价大升,触发了基金持有个别股票的比例限制(不超过10%),也同时表明大跌后会再吸纳,但时机实在可疑。</p><p>所以,消息还是大幅拖累了特斯拉的股价,连带美股一众科技股下跌,并触发了全球科技股的跌势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7274484200cead00bacd0233b57bd758\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"480\"></p><p>“死多头”Baillie Gifford高位减持特斯拉可谓震惊了华尔街,这其中也与它在投资界德高望重的地位有关。</p><p>Baillie Gifford总部位于英国爱丁堡,是一家有着超过100多年历史的老牌投资机构,但它依然能紧贴潮流,参与投资大量新世代的科技独角兽企业。</p><p>官网显示Baillie Gifford为全球客户管理和咨询的专业股权、固定收益和多资产投资组合规模达到2620亿英镑(3237.5亿美元)。</p><p>据此前英国媒体报道,Baillie Gifford多年前透过Scottish Mortgage Trust投资了的阿里巴巴,并且已获得最少10倍以上的回报。它也是腾讯大股东Naspers的投资者之一。</p><p>根据PitchBook的数据,Baillie Gifford在2018年作为牵头人或参与者,共参与了约20笔投资,总交易规模超过210亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b78efbed2cfb4361fa355e55cc4b87\" tg-width=\"558\" tg-height=\"456\"></p><p><b>更重要的是,它与特斯拉渊源特别深,对特斯拉的投资已经长达7年之久。</b></p><p>2013年初,Baillie Gifford耗资8900万美元买进特斯拉230万股,当时的平均持股成本是38.7美元。随后几年,Baillie Gifford一直在美股市场积极买入特斯拉股票,到了2017年大概持有特斯拉1400万股,成为马斯克之后的特斯拉第二大股东。</p><p>这些年来,尽管特斯拉股价出现波动,但它一直坚持持股。Baillie Gifford曾阐述过投资特斯拉的逻辑:</p><ul><li><b>特斯拉拥有更好的产品和微小的市场占有率,而传统车企尽管是坐拥巨大份额却仍在沉睡,给予其巨大的颠覆空间;</b></li><li><b>特斯拉的投资机会超越汽车本身,还覆盖了清洁能源和公共事业;</b></li><li><b>特斯拉作为垂直一体化企业,通过硬科技解决行业核心痛点;</b></li></ul><p>第四,特斯拉是行业领导者,能够引领新能源汽车的风潮。</p><p>但就在散户大规模涌入、特斯拉冲向历史新高之际,<b>原来忠诚的第二大股东突然减持,这难免让散户联想到机构是否在开始转移仓位,这对于特斯拉是一大利空。</b></p><p>2、<b>同时,特斯拉股票拆分之后再启动增发融资的做法,也令散户们怀疑自己开始被“割韭菜”。</b></p><p>在暴跌开始前,特斯拉周二公布了其有史以来最大的增发计划,旨在筹集最多50亿美元资金。受此影响,特斯拉股价就开始由涨转跌,当天收盘时下跌了4.67%。</p><p>这些做法让人质疑,机构投资者对特斯拉股票的需求是否开始枯竭,所以特斯拉要将融资重心转移到散户身上了?</p><p>在此之前,<b>桥水基金也在今年第二季度大幅减持了特斯拉仓位比例达44%</b>,更早之前的2019年第四季度,沙特主权财富基金“公共投资基金”(PIF)更是几乎全部抛售了特斯拉持仓,从Q3所持的约830万股减持99.5%至约3.9万股。</p><p><b>3、不仅如此,我们发现,早在本周特斯拉暴跌之前,就有特斯拉内部的重要人物执行了一套神操作,大赚一笔并成功逃顶。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac4e2eaac206df1f5c15b5f904ba073\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"346\"></p><p>Kathleen Wilson-Thompson</p><p>监管文件披露,特斯拉的董事会成员Kathleen Wilson-Thompson,周一(8月31日)行使期权以每股44.95美元的价格买入12500股股票,然后在当日美股开盘不到一个小时内以超过10倍的价格(451.48)卖出,获利508万美元,并且成功躲过了之后的三连跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c30e14d3400783cf0a4b7dab60b451a\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"619\"></p><p>零对冲还发现,Kathleen Wilson-Thompson和Baillie Gifford抛售是在同一天,虽然后者周三才提交减持报表,两者的时机都相当完美。</p><p>如此完美的操作,难道有人获得了什么内部消息?他们抛售之后,特斯拉的市值蒸发了超过1000亿美元。</p><p>重重疑云之下,本以为特斯拉拆股会涨得更高的散户们,开始形成“我在加仓、机构却在逃离”之类的幻想破灭的想法,从而引起恐惧,跟风抛售。</p><p><b>03太早看空是死罪</b></p><p><b>但除了美股大盘的氛围改变和以上因素之外,我们并没有发现一直支撑特斯拉股价上涨的基本面有什么恶化。</b>连涨几个月之后,如今整个美股市场都出现了估值过高的担忧,更何况是特斯拉。</p><p>从感性的角度讲,它的创始人马斯克还是那么善于制造“科技梦”,他有源源不断的梦想故事可以输送,可以给市场投喂炒作题材,特斯拉品牌也还是如此充满“科技感”和“高级感”的魅力,还是投资者最喜爱的股票之一。只要马斯克能保持住这样的形象,就是保住了特斯拉股价的核心关键。</p><p>从现实的角度讲,<b>估值过高确实一直是特斯拉身上最让人担忧的地方,但8个月狂涨500%可谓“教科书式”示范了逆势沽空有多危险。</b></p><p>特斯拉汽车的未来交付量被认为才是维持股价上涨的关键因素,但这是一个很长远的问题,也并非不可实现。</p><p>按照《财富》的分析,要想证明自己的高估值合理,特斯拉就需要在2030年之前实现2040亿美元的年收入,也就是卖出350万辆电动汽车,每辆售价5.8万美元。</p><p>今年一季度的情况是:特斯拉在全球总共卖出17.9万辆,营收为120.21亿美元,已经完成营收任务的5. 89%。对比来看,特斯拉的销量也算是鹤立鸡群了。今年一季度全球汽车销量同比下降逾20%至5960多万辆。</p><p>同时,马斯克还正通过拆股和发售新股的做法推高股价,因为股价越高,就能筹集越多的资金来建更多的厂和造更多的车,令特斯拉的估值与股价更加匹配,继而又会令特斯拉的股票更具价值。过去十年中,特斯拉曾通过高位增发新股募集了140亿美元资金。</p><p>美银计算得出,以每股700美元的价格计算,特斯拉可以通过发行10%的未偿股票来筹集近700亿美元,这就能建设24家新工厂,造出600万辆新能源汽车。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5960ac639fb1f2cae23e465711c486ba\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"357\"></p><p>以不同价位发行10%的已发行股票VS特斯拉可以建设多少工厂</p><p>由此看来,在2020-2030这漫长的十年里,实现2040亿美元的年收入也并非那么遥不可及。</p><p><b>所以说,此时就喊出空军已至、空头觉醒这种口号显得过于浮夸和危言耸听。</b></p><p>事实上,截至8月31日,特斯拉仍有约53%的股份由机构持有。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c00a0bf8e23119d8ee08297c922796\" tg-width=\"1131\" tg-height=\"533\"></p><p>其中五大机构股东都极具公信力,包括Ballie Gifford、先锋(Vanguard)和贝莱德(BlackRock)。<b>此外,诸如方舟资管(ARK investment Management)、Legal & General Group和北方信托(Northern Trust)等规模较小的机构也增持了特斯拉股票。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b33e1507ab25e3c1c4b3a730364d8bd\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"442\"></p><p><b>可见,多头实力没那么容易撼动,几天之内的股价波动也并不能说明什么。有人反而认为这波下跌是一个很好的逢跌买入时机,因为9月份特斯拉的催化剂十分丰富。这可能就是我们看到多头频频绝地反击的原因。</b></p><p><b>04九月“电池日”另一爆点?</b></p><p>特斯拉9月面临“电池日”和“入标判决”这两大公开的事件型风险,此时股价波动加剧应该是情理之中。</p><p>周五特斯拉已经被确认未能加入标普500指数成分股。此前分析师认为这一事件可能吸引被动投资者入场,从而加剧股价波动。如今被拒绝加入,也是多头周五反击遇阻的原因。</p><p><b>不过,特斯拉还有一个大日子——定于9月22日举行的2020年年度股东大会和“电池日”,预计到时候马斯克会放大招。</b></p><p>他可能会发布关于Maxwell干电极技术和Roadrunner“百万英里”电池的细节,还可能发布关于硅纳米线电池产品的信息。这些都是能让特斯拉再甩开对手几条街的重磅技术杀器。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96bb6ff99795c5d63a33e1bcefd1d3d2\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"338\">“电池日”的注册页面</p><p>其中,硅纳米线可能是特斯拉的秘密武器。</p><p>最新的“电池日”注册页面被指是硅纳米线这种新电池材料的结构图。注册页面发布的同一天,马斯特还在推特上表示特斯拉会在3-4年之内大规模生产寿命更长,而且能量密度提高50%,也就是达到400瓦时/千克的电池。</p><p><b>有心人士还发现,硅纳米线的使用公司是电池制造公司Amprius,而这次的特斯拉“电池日”活动地址,就选在了Amprius附近的特斯拉Tera电池制造工厂。</b></p><p>所以这个9月,马斯克很可能会给投资者带来更大的惊喜,况且拆股已经可让更多人更容易加入进来为市场的非理性情绪添油加醋。</p><p><b>可以肯定的一点是,特斯拉的每一次利好,都会实实在在地反应在股价上。一旦马斯克的9月惊喜扭转当前的担忧情绪,特斯拉就很容易让更多散户加入这场吹泡泡游戏,应该还会有更大的上涨空间。</b></p><p>我们确实需要提醒自己不要在泡沫中过度疯狂,但也别忘了有时需要利用泡沫去壮大自己。</p>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉八折甩卖,梭哈不?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉八折甩卖,梭哈不?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-07 19:18 北京时间 <a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1000793&type=news><strong> 美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>没有一直涨的股票,即便它是特斯拉!本周我们就见识了一场看似由机构减持引发的多空大博弈。谁能想到,特斯拉如日中天的股价都敌不过英国资产管理公司Baillie Gifford减持。坚持持仓已七年之久的“死多头”Baillie Gifford突然高位减持,震惊了华尔街,特斯拉股价随即暴跌,触发环球科技股跌势,并间接引发了美股小股灾。问题是,经历本周的大战过后,哪一方依然实力在线?01特斯拉突然“倒车”先...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1000793&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/894b094eb32ac5072648613b2fa7f36e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1000793&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134332137","content_text":"没有一直涨的股票,即便它是特斯拉!本周我们就见识了一场看似由机构减持引发的多空大博弈。谁能想到,特斯拉如日中天的股价都敌不过英国资产管理公司Baillie Gifford减持。坚持持仓已七年之久的“死多头”Baillie Gifford突然高位减持,震惊了华尔街,特斯拉股价随即暴跌,触发环球科技股跌势,并间接引发了美股小股灾。问题是,经历本周的大战过后,哪一方依然实力在线?01特斯拉突然“倒车”先来看看战况有多激烈!从周四(9月3日)晚间说起,科技股可谓引爆了美股小股灾,三大股指全线收跌,道指收跌超800点,跌幅2.78%;标普500指数收跌3.51%,纳指收跌4.96%,均创6月11日以来最大单日跌幅。到了周五,美股延续跌势,三大指数全线收跌,纳指依然跌得最惨,本周累跌超3%,创三月美股闪崩以来最大单周跌幅。而引发科技股滑铁卢的元凶之一,就是今年美股中最牛、截至8月底已上涨近500%的特斯拉。周四特斯拉迅速暴挫逾10%,11:40左右跌幅甚至一度超过15%,创下5个月内最大跌幅的记录。近三日的累计最大跌幅近20%,一度从502.49美元的最高价大跌超100美元,市值缩水超930亿美元。周五凌晨盘后交易中,特斯拉一度再跌超4%至390美元,以此计算市值大减1040亿美元。若从周二的高位算起(盘中创出502.49美元的历史新高),已经跌了25%进入技术熊市。但多头继续发力之下,特斯拉周五盘中强势反弹,一度涨超5%,最终收盘上涨2.78%,报418.32美元。之后,未被纳入标普500指数的消息又令其盘后一度大跌7%,较历史高位已经累计下跌超20%。一直以来科技板块在疫情期间受资金吹捧,不少股份更屡创新高,特斯拉更是最耀眼的明星。此前为了鼓励新的散户入场,特斯拉在8月11日还刚刚搞完了“高送转”,进行了历史上首次拆股。每拥有1股特斯拉股票的投资者都将额外获得4股股票(相当于A股10送转40),此后股价一路飙升了50%,8月的累计涨幅超过了80%,市值一度突破4400亿美元。零对冲评论称,特斯拉24小时内就跌去了半个埃克森美孚,如果不是进行了拆股操作,特斯拉就“全完了”。所以说,这种突如其来的暴跌显得十分可疑,确切原因也难以描述。数据确实显示,苹果和特斯拉相继拆股以来,它们的交易量暴增,这几天还导致多家券商服务器宕机。据彭博,特斯拉在8月31日的成交量接近1.2亿股,相比之下,8月27日和8月28日只有约2000万股。9月1日上午,Robinhood的用户收到了下图中的通知,称由于交易活动增多,该应用程序的运行受到影响被延误,引发大量用户在社交媒体上投诉抱怨。除Robinhood外,据Fox Business 8月31日报道,宏达理财(TD Ameritrade)和嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)服务也出现中断。除交易活动暴增外,期权数据还显示,这几天特斯拉的看空情绪增强,9月2日特斯拉的认沽比率为40%,认购比率为60%,3日两者分别为45.2%和54.8%,但4日认沽比率又有所回落至44.8%。02外部最大股东砍仓惹祸我们猜测导火索是一些神秘减持导致散户信念突然动摇,从而引起恐慌,造成了踩踏。1、最直接的原因是,就在周四特斯拉股价暴跌的前一天,其最大机构股东Baillie Gifford刚刚报告了大幅减持信息。特斯拉的最大机构股东、英国基金公司Baillie Gifford在周三向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的13G报表中,报告了减持行为。报表显示,截至2020年8月31日,其特斯拉持股由2月时占7.67%,减至8月的4.25%,涉及减持1928.4万股(按拆股后计算)。如果按照特斯拉8月31日的收盘价每股498.32美元计算,总套现金额为96.1亿美元。虽然减持后Baillie Gifford仍持有特斯拉普通股3107.47万股,同时解释减持完全是因为其股价大升,触发了基金持有个别股票的比例限制(不超过10%),也同时表明大跌后会再吸纳,但时机实在可疑。所以,消息还是大幅拖累了特斯拉的股价,连带美股一众科技股下跌,并触发了全球科技股的跌势。“死多头”Baillie Gifford高位减持特斯拉可谓震惊了华尔街,这其中也与它在投资界德高望重的地位有关。Baillie Gifford总部位于英国爱丁堡,是一家有着超过100多年历史的老牌投资机构,但它依然能紧贴潮流,参与投资大量新世代的科技独角兽企业。官网显示Baillie Gifford为全球客户管理和咨询的专业股权、固定收益和多资产投资组合规模达到2620亿英镑(3237.5亿美元)。据此前英国媒体报道,Baillie Gifford多年前透过Scottish Mortgage Trust投资了的阿里巴巴,并且已获得最少10倍以上的回报。它也是腾讯大股东Naspers的投资者之一。根据PitchBook的数据,Baillie Gifford在2018年作为牵头人或参与者,共参与了约20笔投资,总交易规模超过210亿美元。更重要的是,它与特斯拉渊源特别深,对特斯拉的投资已经长达7年之久。2013年初,Baillie Gifford耗资8900万美元买进特斯拉230万股,当时的平均持股成本是38.7美元。随后几年,Baillie Gifford一直在美股市场积极买入特斯拉股票,到了2017年大概持有特斯拉1400万股,成为马斯克之后的特斯拉第二大股东。这些年来,尽管特斯拉股价出现波动,但它一直坚持持股。Baillie Gifford曾阐述过投资特斯拉的逻辑:特斯拉拥有更好的产品和微小的市场占有率,而传统车企尽管是坐拥巨大份额却仍在沉睡,给予其巨大的颠覆空间;特斯拉的投资机会超越汽车本身,还覆盖了清洁能源和公共事业;特斯拉作为垂直一体化企业,通过硬科技解决行业核心痛点;第四,特斯拉是行业领导者,能够引领新能源汽车的风潮。但就在散户大规模涌入、特斯拉冲向历史新高之际,原来忠诚的第二大股东突然减持,这难免让散户联想到机构是否在开始转移仓位,这对于特斯拉是一大利空。2、同时,特斯拉股票拆分之后再启动增发融资的做法,也令散户们怀疑自己开始被“割韭菜”。在暴跌开始前,特斯拉周二公布了其有史以来最大的增发计划,旨在筹集最多50亿美元资金。受此影响,特斯拉股价就开始由涨转跌,当天收盘时下跌了4.67%。这些做法让人质疑,机构投资者对特斯拉股票的需求是否开始枯竭,所以特斯拉要将融资重心转移到散户身上了?在此之前,桥水基金也在今年第二季度大幅减持了特斯拉仓位比例达44%,更早之前的2019年第四季度,沙特主权财富基金“公共投资基金”(PIF)更是几乎全部抛售了特斯拉持仓,从Q3所持的约830万股减持99.5%至约3.9万股。3、不仅如此,我们发现,早在本周特斯拉暴跌之前,就有特斯拉内部的重要人物执行了一套神操作,大赚一笔并成功逃顶。Kathleen Wilson-Thompson监管文件披露,特斯拉的董事会成员Kathleen Wilson-Thompson,周一(8月31日)行使期权以每股44.95美元的价格买入12500股股票,然后在当日美股开盘不到一个小时内以超过10倍的价格(451.48)卖出,获利508万美元,并且成功躲过了之后的三连跌。零对冲还发现,Kathleen Wilson-Thompson和Baillie Gifford抛售是在同一天,虽然后者周三才提交减持报表,两者的时机都相当完美。如此完美的操作,难道有人获得了什么内部消息?他们抛售之后,特斯拉的市值蒸发了超过1000亿美元。重重疑云之下,本以为特斯拉拆股会涨得更高的散户们,开始形成“我在加仓、机构却在逃离”之类的幻想破灭的想法,从而引起恐惧,跟风抛售。03太早看空是死罪但除了美股大盘的氛围改变和以上因素之外,我们并没有发现一直支撑特斯拉股价上涨的基本面有什么恶化。连涨几个月之后,如今整个美股市场都出现了估值过高的担忧,更何况是特斯拉。从感性的角度讲,它的创始人马斯克还是那么善于制造“科技梦”,他有源源不断的梦想故事可以输送,可以给市场投喂炒作题材,特斯拉品牌也还是如此充满“科技感”和“高级感”的魅力,还是投资者最喜爱的股票之一。只要马斯克能保持住这样的形象,就是保住了特斯拉股价的核心关键。从现实的角度讲,估值过高确实一直是特斯拉身上最让人担忧的地方,但8个月狂涨500%可谓“教科书式”示范了逆势沽空有多危险。特斯拉汽车的未来交付量被认为才是维持股价上涨的关键因素,但这是一个很长远的问题,也并非不可实现。按照《财富》的分析,要想证明自己的高估值合理,特斯拉就需要在2030年之前实现2040亿美元的年收入,也就是卖出350万辆电动汽车,每辆售价5.8万美元。今年一季度的情况是:特斯拉在全球总共卖出17.9万辆,营收为120.21亿美元,已经完成营收任务的5. 89%。对比来看,特斯拉的销量也算是鹤立鸡群了。今年一季度全球汽车销量同比下降逾20%至5960多万辆。同时,马斯克还正通过拆股和发售新股的做法推高股价,因为股价越高,就能筹集越多的资金来建更多的厂和造更多的车,令特斯拉的估值与股价更加匹配,继而又会令特斯拉的股票更具价值。过去十年中,特斯拉曾通过高位增发新股募集了140亿美元资金。美银计算得出,以每股700美元的价格计算,特斯拉可以通过发行10%的未偿股票来筹集近700亿美元,这就能建设24家新工厂,造出600万辆新能源汽车。以不同价位发行10%的已发行股票VS特斯拉可以建设多少工厂由此看来,在2020-2030这漫长的十年里,实现2040亿美元的年收入也并非那么遥不可及。所以说,此时就喊出空军已至、空头觉醒这种口号显得过于浮夸和危言耸听。事实上,截至8月31日,特斯拉仍有约53%的股份由机构持有。其中五大机构股东都极具公信力,包括Ballie Gifford、先锋(Vanguard)和贝莱德(BlackRock)。此外,诸如方舟资管(ARK investment Management)、Legal & General Group和北方信托(Northern Trust)等规模较小的机构也增持了特斯拉股票。可见,多头实力没那么容易撼动,几天之内的股价波动也并不能说明什么。有人反而认为这波下跌是一个很好的逢跌买入时机,因为9月份特斯拉的催化剂十分丰富。这可能就是我们看到多头频频绝地反击的原因。04九月“电池日”另一爆点?特斯拉9月面临“电池日”和“入标判决”这两大公开的事件型风险,此时股价波动加剧应该是情理之中。周五特斯拉已经被确认未能加入标普500指数成分股。此前分析师认为这一事件可能吸引被动投资者入场,从而加剧股价波动。如今被拒绝加入,也是多头周五反击遇阻的原因。不过,特斯拉还有一个大日子——定于9月22日举行的2020年年度股东大会和“电池日”,预计到时候马斯克会放大招。他可能会发布关于Maxwell干电极技术和Roadrunner“百万英里”电池的细节,还可能发布关于硅纳米线电池产品的信息。这些都是能让特斯拉再甩开对手几条街的重磅技术杀器。“电池日”的注册页面其中,硅纳米线可能是特斯拉的秘密武器。最新的“电池日”注册页面被指是硅纳米线这种新电池材料的结构图。注册页面发布的同一天,马斯特还在推特上表示特斯拉会在3-4年之内大规模生产寿命更长,而且能量密度提高50%,也就是达到400瓦时/千克的电池。有心人士还发现,硅纳米线的使用公司是电池制造公司Amprius,而这次的特斯拉“电池日”活动地址,就选在了Amprius附近的特斯拉Tera电池制造工厂。所以这个9月,马斯克很可能会给投资者带来更大的惊喜,况且拆股已经可让更多人更容易加入进来为市场的非理性情绪添油加醋。可以肯定的一点是,特斯拉的每一次利好,都会实实在在地反应在股价上。一旦马斯克的9月惊喜扭转当前的担忧情绪,特斯拉就很容易让更多散户加入这场吹泡泡游戏,应该还会有更大的上涨空间。我们确实需要提醒自己不要在泡沫中过度疯狂,但也别忘了有时需要利用泡沫去壮大自己。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941500930,"gmtCreate":1594944452920,"gmtModify":1704207502827,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">$百济神州(BGNE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600380\">$健康元(600380)$</a>高瓴如其名","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGNE\">$百济神州(BGNE)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600380\">$健康元(600380)$</a>高瓴如其名","text":"$百济神州(BGNE)$$健康元(600380)$高瓴如其名","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941500930","repostId":"2051277954","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2051277954","pubTimestamp":1594730219,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2051277954?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-14 20:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"逆势暴涨近13%!高瓴又放大招:狂砸70亿加仓,竟创了全球纪录!为何6年8次猛追一只股?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2051277954","media":"中国基金报","summary":"中国基金报记者 吴羽高瓴资本在医药行业的脚步停不下来!今天,高瓴资本又出手,股价又狂飙超12%!7月13日,百济神州宣布向特定现有投资者以每股以14.2308美元的价格配售1.46亿股新股,集资额为2","content":"<div>\n<p>中国基金报记者 吴羽高瓴资本在医药行业的脚步停不下来!今天,高瓴资本又出手,股价又狂飙超12%!7月13日,百济神州宣布向特定现有投资者以每股以14.2308美元的价格配售1.46亿股新股,集资额为20.8亿美元。作为百济神州唯一的全程投资机构,高瓴认购了其中不低于10亿美元(约合人民币70亿元)的份额。这也是全球生物医药历史上最大的一笔股权投资!消息出来后,“高瓴效应”再现:百济神州在美股大涨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202007142042067951adb4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>逆势暴涨近13%!高瓴又放大招:狂砸70亿加仓,竟创了全球纪录!为何6年8次猛追一只股?</title>\n<style 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吴羽高瓴资本在医药行业的脚步停不下来!今天,高瓴资本又出手,股价又狂飙超12%!7月13日,百济神州宣布向特定现有投资者以每股以14.2308美元的价格配售1.46亿股新股,集资额为20.8亿美元。作为百济神州唯一的全程投资机构,高瓴认购了其中不低于10亿美元(约合人民币70亿元)的份额。这也是全球生物医药历史上最大的一笔股权投资!消息出来后,“高瓴效应”再现:百济神州在美股大涨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202007142042067951adb4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8593d7bafc6da002b2ab4975d4711a90","relate_stocks":{"BGNE":"百济神州","06160":"百济神州"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202007142042067951adb4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2051277954","content_text":"中国基金报记者 吴羽高瓴资本在医药行业的脚步停不下来!今天,高瓴资本又出手,股价又狂飙超12%!7月13日,百济神州宣布向特定现有投资者以每股以14.2308美元的价格配售1.46亿股新股,集资额为20.8亿美元。作为百济神州唯一的全程投资机构,高瓴认购了其中不低于10亿美元(约合人民币70亿元)的份额。这也是全球生物医药历史上最大的一笔股权投资!消息出来后,“高瓴效应”再现:百济神州在美股大涨8.66%后,今天在港股更是逆势大涨超12%。而前一天,高瓴资本刚全额认购了健康元的定增,随后健康元的股价连续两天涨停,市值大增近40亿,高瓴浮盈超57%。高瓴至少70亿认购百济神州7月13日,百济神州宣布向特定现有投资者以注册直接发行的方式发行145,838,979股每股面值0.0001美元普通股的定价,每股普通股以14.2308美元的购买价出售,相当于每股美国存托股份(ADS)185美元,发行总收入约为20.8亿美元,扣除发行费用后的净收入为20.7亿美元。作为百济神州唯一的全程投资机构,高瓴认购了其中不低于10亿美元(约合人民币70亿元)的份额。此外,全球市值第六大的医药企业:安进公司以及Baker Brothers也参与认购。这不仅仅是高瓴资本底8次投百济神州,更是全球生物医药历史上最大的一笔股权投资!美股涨完港股涨高瓴浮盈超15%虽然上述配股价185美元,较上周五在每股美国存托股份196.03美元折让约5.6%;亦较香港周五收盘价的119.3港元折让7.6%;但消息传出后,美股、港股的百济神州依旧双双大涨。昨晚,美股虽然崩了,但百济神州逆势大涨8.66%至213.01美元每股。而今天港股更是逆势大涨超12%。即这波操作,高瓴至少浮盈超15%。为何连续6年8次投百济神州?其实,这不是高瓴资本首次投资百济神州,而是参与和支持了百济神州公司从成立以来的每一轮融资,在百济神州创立至今的9年期间,高瓴资本从2014年的A轮开始,到2015年的起步期(B轮),从2016年纳斯达克上市,到上市后的定向增发,再到去年香港上市,高瓴是百济神州在中国唯一的全程投资人。而这次,则是高瓴资本第8次投百济神州了。百济神州的股价也从2016年上市以来涨了近10倍。“高瓴投资百济神州,首先源于双方理念的契合。高瓴价值投资的基因决定了它骨子里不求短期回报,可以放眼十年二十年,做时间的朋友。”高瓴资本合伙人、百济神州董事易诺青表示,“这样的精神气质,与百济神州的‘强烈的好奇心、真正的诚实’的企业文化,以及追求‘同类最佳’(best–in-class)的信念可谓不谋而合。”对于此次战略合作,易诺青表示,“我们坚信,对科研的不懈投入和对创新的追求将创造长期价值。我们期待,百济与安进的这一合作,能够助力中国创新药企业的高质量发展,登上世界一流制药舞台。”多年来,高瓴资本帮助百济神州创新和业务突破不断迈上新台阶,甚至还以公司薪酬委员会成员的身份,推动公司治理结构不断优化,并为百济神州设计了市场化、具有竞争力的股权激励体系,帮助其吸引和招揽全球最优秀的人才。在百济神州即将迎来商业化里程碑的关键阶段,高瓴并不着急退出,仍然选择了继续支持。2017年7月,百济神州和全球制药巨头新基公司达成合作。百济神州以近14亿美元的交易总额将PD-1抗体BGB-A317亚洲地区以外(除日本)的实体瘤开发权益转让给对方,创下了国内药企单品种权益转让新纪录,而且百济神州全面接手新基公司在中国的运营团队,并获得新基三款产品的国内销售权。这项交易背后的穿针引线者,亦是高瓴资本。该合作虽于今年年初BMS宣布收购新基时中止,但百济神州收回了它在研的PD-1抑制剂替雷利珠单抗全球授权并获得了新基支付的1.5亿美元,而且百济神州也利用此次合作一举升级为从研发到销售的一体化生物医药公司,为长远发展打下坚实的基础。在高瓴看来,投资医药创新行业,不能仅仅依靠“确认过眼神”的理念契合,更为关键的是能够对像百济这样有潜力的企业持续、专注下注,并尽可能提供不限于资金方面的帮助,譬如商业项目的引进,人才团队的补充,企业运营管理等多方面的帮助。高瓴资本很早就成立了专业的生物医药行业投资团队,重点关注革命性生物技术,因此在资源的整合方面具有显著优势。“资本对生物医药创新的支持,不仅仅是资金上的,对很多人来说,最好的投资可能就是那种只管投钱,投完之后投资者就什么也不管了,就等有一天摘取丰收果实,赚个盆满钵满。”易诺青表示,“这显然不是我们的风格。我们从来不做甩手掌柜,而是积极穿针引线整合资源。撮合百济神州与新基的合作,是我们依靠深厚行业积累推动被投企业商业化进程的典型案例。”“做创新药离不开资本投入。高瓴资本对于百济神州持续不断的支持,早已超越了单纯资金投资范畴。“百济神州董事长、共同创始人兼首席执行官欧雷强也曾在接受采访时对外坦言,“高瓴资本通过多方面、及时有效支持,帮助百济神州从一家创新药研发公司,转变为集研发、生产、销售一体化的综合型企业。”百济神州或成为国内研发一哥资料显示,在短短9年间,百济神州在全球打造了一支超过1000人的临床开发团队,造就了全球范围内最大的专注于肿瘤创新药物开发的团队之一,同时在全世界27个国家开展临床研究。另一方面,百济神州已成功将多款管线药物推进至临床阶段,包括3款进入临床后期的自主研发管线药物。特别是百济神州自主研发的泽布替尼获得了美国药监局的突破性疗法认定,更有望成为我国真正意义上的首个被美国药监局批准的原创新药,实现中国新药研发的新高度。从2018年上半年的研发支出来看,百济神州已经超过了恒瑞2017年全年的研发投入。近期与安进的战略合作,更是将把百济神州的全球战略推向新的高度。根据合作协议,百济神州将在中国负责安进公司的三款肿瘤产品的商业化。此外,双方将共同开发20款安进的处于临床早期阶段的肿瘤领域管线药物,并带入中国市场。同时,安进将购入价值27亿美元的百济神州股份,因此,百济神州也将具备更加雄厚的公司财务基础,更好地支持后续的产品研究与临床开发。近几年,生物医药已成为中国的重要战略行业。在国家政策支持、共享园区建立、资本市场助力加之人才红利爆发的基础上,中国生物创新药蓬勃发展:麦肯锡报告显示,中国对全球医药研发的贡献率于2018年上升至4-8%,已跨入第二梯队。而可持续创新,既取决于企业等创新主体的实力打造,也离不开在全球化大势下,秉持开放态度的国际合作。刚22亿定增买入的健康元已浮盈超57%值得注意的是,前一天消息,高瓴资本刚刚全额认购了健康元的定增。根据公告,本次非公开发行的发行价格为人民币12.83元/股,募集资金总额预计不超过21.73亿元。而健康元的股价在昨天直接涨停后,今天再次涨停,股价涨至20.21元每股,也就是说,高瓴资本这波操作浮盈超57%。高瓴资本狂扫医药股不仅仅百济神州,近年来,高瓴连续投了一大批本土优质医药公司,像药明康德、甘李药业、君实生物、信达生物、瀚晖制药等。今年高瓴资本更是围绕生物医药在二级市场动作频频。2月16日,凯莱英发布2020年度非公开发行股票预案,拟非公开发行股票募集资金总额不超过约23.11亿元,发行价为123.56元/股,全部由高瓴资本以现金认购。5月13日,凯利泰披露非公开发行股票预案,确认向淡马锡富敦投资有限公司、高瓴资本管理有限公司非公开发行不超5850万股,其中高瓴资本拟认购2100万股,发行价格为18.73元/股,耗资约3.93亿元。3月,高瓴以12.42亿元成为华兰生物(002007.SZ)子公司华兰生物疫苗有限公司战略投资者,入股估值138亿元。对此,华兰生物董事长安康表示,引入强有力的战略投资者,能够实现资源有效整合。同在3月,高瓴资本旗下基金以大宗交易的方式,出资13.2亿港元增持微创医疗(00853.HK),后者以心血管介入产品、大动脉及外周血管介入产品等为主。3月16日,泰格医药(300347.SZ)宣布拟发行H股并申请在港交所主板挂牌,5月22日,泰格医药旗下控股企业在韩国证券期货交易所上市。这家公司为高瓴资本在2018年携手淡马锡进行投资,多次加仓后,到2020年一季度,高瓴位列泰格医药第九大股东席位。6月29日,海吉亚正式在香港联交所挂牌上市,股票代码为6078。发行价18.50港元。高瓴资本是在海吉亚上市前引入的9名机构基石投资者,合共认购1.43亿美元(约11.08亿港元)股份,由高瓴资本领衔,还浮现奥博资本、Tiger Pacific、南方基金、清池资本、锐智资本、HBC、正心谷创新资本、东方资产多家机构的身影。还是同一天,中国微创外科手术器械及配件(MISIA)平台康基医疗于港交所成功挂牌上市。此次新股发行引入高瓴资本、贝莱德、橡树资本、OrbiMed等7家基石投资者,合计认购1.65亿美元(12.87亿港元)。6月29日上市的沪市主板甘李药业,目前已经取得了12个一字连板,且仍未开板。甘李药业是国内重组胰岛素类似物生产领军企业,其发行价为63.32元/股,是今年以来发行价第三高的非科创板新股。高瓴持有甘李药业1815万股,占总股本的5.03%,为公司第5大股东。据不完全统计,迄今为止,高瓴在生物医药、医疗器械、医疗服务、医药零售等领域累计投资了160多家企业,其中中国企业超过100家。总投资金额超过1200亿元人民币,投资企业总市值超过2.5万亿元。据《2020胡润中国百强大健康民营企业》统计,目前国内市值排名前十的民营医药公司,高瓴投资了七家。“中国基金报:报道基金关注的一切Chinafundnews长按识别二维码,关注中国基金报万水千山总是情,点个 “在看” 行不行!!!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":941046836,"gmtCreate":1594738541425,"gmtModify":1704206667343,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不可撼动的财务自由-复利效应优质标的-指数基金带来的低损耗,高持续性收益平滑风险-定投牛市快速建仓,熊市握有现金赚的是什么钱-经济持续发展的钱,货币超发带来的资产升值的钱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团点评-W(03690)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">$贵州茅台(600519)$</a>","listText":"不可撼动的财务自由-复利效应优质标的-指数基金带来的低损耗,高持续性收益平滑风险-定投牛市快速建仓,熊市握有现金赚的是什么钱-经济持续发展的钱,货币超发带来的资产升值的钱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团点评-W(03690)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">$贵州茅台(600519)$</a>","text":"不可撼动的财务自由-复利效应优质标的-指数基金带来的低损耗,高持续性收益平滑风险-定投牛市快速建仓,熊市握有现金赚的是什么钱-经济持续发展的钱,货币超发带来的资产升值的钱$特斯拉(TSLA)$$蔚来(NIO)$$跟谁学(GSX)$$美团点评-W(03690)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$贵州茅台(600519)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/941046836","repostId":"1102340935","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1102340935","pubTimestamp":1594732562,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102340935?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-14 21:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"牛市里,如何成为少数赚到钱的人?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102340935","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"无论如何,建仓。","content":"<p>作者|苏宁金融研究院副院长 薛洪言</p><p><b>让基金经理为你赶车</b></p><p>艾·里斯在《人生定位》中提出了赛马理论:如果人生是一场赛马,赢得比赛的,未必是最好的骑手,那些拥有最好赛马的骑手,更容易笑到最后。</p><p>什么是赛马呢?以人生的不同阶段为例,求学时期,学校就是你的赛马,重点中学胜率大于普通中学,清北复交胜过一般本科;工作阶段,行业和公司就是你的赛马,IT互联网的胜率大于建筑设计,BAT相比小公司更容易让你成才。</p><p>推而广之,相同的毕业学校,专业就是你的赛马,金融这匹马更容易让你赚到钱;在同一家公司,岗位就是你的赛马,营销岗位更容易让你赚到钱。</p><p>所以,在人生这条路上,每个人都骑着很多匹马。<b>很多时候,个人的聪明才智所发挥的作用,远远比不上他骑着一匹怎样的马。</b></p><blockquote>不管你多么聪慧敏锐,把注压在一个输家身上是永远得不到回报的。泰坦尼克上最优秀的官员到最后也要与最没用的人待在同一条救生艇里,前提还是他要足够幸运,没有掉进水里。</blockquote><p>在股市里炒股,也是同样的道理。</p><p>很多散户所凭借的,不过是自身的经验、知识和小道消息,他们总是单打独斗,所以绝大多数都做了分母。自始至终,他们骑着的是他们自己,他们以自己为马。</p><p>在股市这个赛道中,散户自己显然不是跑得最快的马,他们没有受过专业训练,缺乏专业的后勤补给,情绪波动大,缺乏纪律约束,甚至也没有专业的装备。他们和机构同台竞技,通常是被碾压的一方,被割了韭菜,正如股市中那句俗语:</p><blockquote>当有钱人遇到有经验的人,有经验的人最终会变得有钱,而有钱人最终会得到经验。</blockquote><p><b>眼馋牛市的收益,何必亲自下场呢?把钱交给有经验的人替你管理,不要以自己为马,挑一匹跑得更快的马,才是更好的选择。</b></p><p>基金,就是这样一匹马。买一只基金,基金经理会为你赶车,你在车上只要呼呼睡觉就好了。</p><p><b>买什么最好?</b></p><p>截止2020年一季度末,国内基金总数超过6800只,其中股票型基金1188只。面对1188只由专业人士打理的基金,普通投资者该如何挑选呢?</p><p><b>对小白投资者而言,最佳选择就是指数基金。</b></p><p>这个结论不是我下的,巴菲特、达利欧、约翰•博格等全球知名投资人都表达过类似的观点。如巴菲特就曾留下遗嘱,他去世之后,托管给妻子的资金必须投资于指数基金。巴菲特解释道:</p><blockquote>我相信根据现行政策,该信托基金的长期业绩将优于大多数投资者的业绩——无论他们投资的是养老基金、机构基金还是个人基金,因为它们雇用的都是费用昂贵的基金经理。</blockquote><p>巴菲特所谓「昂贵的基金经理」,是指相比低费率的指数型基金,非指数型股票基金的管理费用太高,在时间的复利效应下会极大地侵蚀利润。况且,有研究表明,长期来看,95%以上的主动管理型基金都跑不赢指数基金。</p><p>巴菲特老爷子还用真金白银表达过自己对指数基金的支持。</p><p>2008年,巴菲特同某对冲基金公司打赌,赌该公司旗下5只最顶尖的对冲基金在10年内跑不赢标准普尔500指数,赌注100万美元。最后,巴菲特赢了赌注。</p><p>长期来看,指数基金之所以表现更好,除了较低的费率外,更重要的是指数基金属于被动管理,买入并持有构成指数的成分股,与「市场先生」保持一致。</p><p>而非指数基金强调跑赢市场、跑赢指数,需要基金经理主动操作。但问题恰恰在于,基金经理也是普通人,他们也会受情绪控制,犯各种散户会犯的错误。</p><p>从结果上看,他们也许比散户更专业,但通常打不赢「市场先生」。</p><p><b>与时间做朋友</b></p><p>很多老股民,都不愿意买指数,觉得不刺激。</p><p>市场中每天都有涨停的股票,少则几十只,多则几百只;而指数(如上证指数)涨个2%就算不错了,赚钱效应弱爆了。</p><p>但从结果上看,绝大多数股民,牛市中盈利跑不赢指数,熊市里亏损远远高于指数。</p><p>指数盈利的奥秘,藏在时间的长河中,藏在复利效应里。10万元本金,哪怕每年涨幅只有10%,只要拿的住,30年之后就能增值17.5倍,变成175万元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1d3fac7cfedbf97a20a1e2d117eed46\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"130\"></p><p>你可能会说,到哪里去找年均收益10%的投资呢?上证指数就是。</p><p>都说A股牛短熊长,但上证指数从上市100点到现在3345点(2020年7月7日),30年涨了33.45倍,年均涨幅12.4%。</p><p>所以,看似不起眼的指数,在时间的长河里,跑赢了通胀,跑赢了存款,跑赢了银行理财。</p><p>话虽如此,买入时点也很重要。如果是2015年6月12日在5166点买入,现在还深套其中。<b>对于普通投资者,很难去选择买入时点,可行的办法就是分散买入时点,即基金定投。</b></p><p>只需要每周或每月投入一定金额的资金,就能把买入时点的影响抹平,在时间的长河中尽情享受复利效应。</p><p>嘉信理财金融研究中心曾做过一个研究,假定5位投资者每年拿出2000美元购买指数,其中,有位投资者每年都选择了最佳买入点(最低点买入),有位投资者每次都是最糟糕买入点(最高点买入),20年之后,二者的盈利差距不到1.5万美元。见下图。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b29028d63d5d1e2782f32d2f86a0697\" tg-width=\"591\" tg-height=\"280\">资料来源:[美] 托尼·罗宾斯 、[美]彼得·莫劳克,《不可撼动的财务自由》,中信出版社,2020.</p><p>就普通投资者而言,不必追求最佳买点,也不可能总是最差买点,只要定期买入、长期持有,做时间的朋友就够了。</p><p><b>关键是仓位</b></p><p>这几天,股市大涨,很多发誓不再炒股的股民陆续回来了。</p><p>我有一个朋友,周一(7月6日)跑步入市,买入指数基金。周一股市涨得好,他很沮丧,因为拉高了他的成本;周二(7月7日)股市也还行,但他认为太疲软了,似乎指数不涨5个点,对不住他的热情支持。我评论说疲软正好加仓,他又不敢,说等周一这笔赚到钱再说。</p><p>这是很多股民的典型思维模式:着眼于一日两日的涨跌,不能站在牛熊大势的层面布局,捡了芝麻,丢了西瓜。</p><p><b>牛市初期,观望大概是所有错误中代价最大的一个。</b></p><p>很多投资者,在牛市初期不敢投资,看到身边人赚了钱才慢慢买入,越是谨慎的投资者越是如此。结果就是,他们总是在牛市的后半段大举加仓,把成本做得很高,然后在牛市接近尾声时走向另一个极端,变得无比激进,不惜贷款炒股,甚至卖房炒股。</p><p>结果,整个牛市里,轻仓介入,只赚到零花钱,却满仓迎接熊市,被熊市的第一个跌停焖在里面,跌幅20%时被套住了,跌幅30%时,割肉离场,然后发誓这辈子再也不碰股票。</p><p>等下一个牛市来临时,他们忍不住又来了,但谨慎依旧,还是在牛市的后半程进来,重复过去的故事,再次割肉离场,屡战屡败、屡败屡战。</p><p>正确的做法是反其道行之。</p><p>最好在熊市中坚持定投。如果三年前定投指数,现在的账面盈利至少在30%-40%了。如果不是,应该在牛市初期快速建仓,把仓位抬高。</p><p>之后,守住仓位,不因短期的调整离场;待牛市进入后半场,再逐步降低仓位。<b>重仓参与牛市,轻仓迎接熊市,如此周而复始,自然对股市由恨生爱。</b></p><p>当然,没有人能够预判股市走势,也没人说得清何为前半场,何为后半程,何为牛熊转换的临界点。但只要保持定力,低点介入、高点离场,大方向上的仓位布局,还是可以做到的。</p><p><b>长期资金、长期投资</b></p><p>股市变幻莫测,以至于很多人把股市比作「赌场」。短期来看,的确与赌场无疑,因为谁也无法预知第二天的涨跌,买入卖出都像在下注。</p><p>但长期来看,股市却是能赚钱的,赚的是经济持续增长的钱,赚的是货币超发下资产升值的钱。</p><p>2008年10月,金融危机后市场最恐慌的时候,巴菲特在《纽约时报》发表一篇文章,题目为《买入美国,正当时》,里面有一段话,讲的就是长期投资的价值:</p><blockquote><b>从长期来看,股市给投资者带来的一定是好消息。</b>20 世纪,美国经历了两次世界大战,还在许多其他军事冲突中付出了沉重的代价。美国经历了大萧条,还经历了其他十几次小小的经济衰退和金融危机。美国经历过石油危机、经历过流感疫情、经历过总统因丑闻而辞职。然而,道指还是从 66 点上涨到 11,497 点。</blockquote><p>所以,只要对国家经济发展的长期前景有信心,对股市就可以有信心。站在长期投资的视角,买入中国。</p><p>既然是长期投资,自然要长期持有;既然是长期持有,自然要求长期资金。</p><p>所以,<b>最好用三五年内都用不到的闲钱来投资,或者从工资里每月拿出一定的比例来投资,切忌使用有压力的资金。</b></p><p>之后,保持耐心即可,毕竟,「股市是一种将财富从没有耐心的人手中转移到有耐心的人手中的工具。」</p><p><b>无论如何,建仓</b></p><p>写到这里。很多读者可能会问,最根本的前提没有解决啊,现在究竟算不算牛市?</p><p>其实,写了这么多,就是想告诉你,<b>无论是不是牛市,都不影响你当下的投资:如果还在熊市,正好建仓;如果是牛市初显,更要加快建仓。</b></p><p>无论如何都要建仓,不是吗?</p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>牛市里,如何成为少数赚到钱的人?</title>\n<style 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href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2650994633&idx=1&sn=5402dd2aa94798304b28833d05fc3c60&chksm=80aceee8b7db67fef3dfe5144571e6da1fb84c47b5a270bf62a85e3af19d92ea80ab8070acb5&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0714Gp52ktc01XPzuRdCWMwX&sharer_sharetime=1594736233196&sharer_shareid=715eb1d78c44c5260fabf65e8728db40&key=b5fefcfa89041be7c4333bced61100d98723009bcb3dcfb84ce3d26c00ddc284b04deb2703625cdb1e2eb001463cea21c40e2c856b7e50610d6487e9364dc7e992458504d4982c07ea93cd3d7afb336d&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=AVKYGRHpBzNF1S5zMJzBuGs%3D&pass_ticket=2kye8RshFSlqZXJRWvqPZeBrDaCZizfierIIsq1WdSjdtrpQXYsK6ZOUlpYnXcig><strong>苏宁金融研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者|苏宁金融研究院副院长 薛洪言让基金经理为你赶车艾·里斯在《人生定位》中提出了赛马理论:如果人生是一场赛马,赢得比赛的,未必是最好的骑手,那些拥有最好赛马的骑手,更容易笑到最后。什么是赛马呢?以人生的不同阶段为例,求学时期,学校就是你的赛马,重点中学胜率大于普通中学,清北复交胜过一般本科;工作阶段,行业和公司就是你的赛马,IT互联网的胜率大于建筑设计,BAT相比小公司更容易让你成才。推而广之,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2650994633&idx=1&sn=5402dd2aa94798304b28833d05fc3c60&chksm=80aceee8b7db67fef3dfe5144571e6da1fb84c47b5a270bf62a85e3af19d92ea80ab8070acb5&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0714Gp52ktc01XPzuRdCWMwX&sharer_sharetime=1594736233196&sharer_shareid=715eb1d78c44c5260fabf65e8728db40&key=b5fefcfa89041be7c4333bced61100d98723009bcb3dcfb84ce3d26c00ddc284b04deb2703625cdb1e2eb001463cea21c40e2c856b7e50610d6487e9364dc7e992458504d4982c07ea93cd3d7afb336d&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=AVKYGRHpBzNF1S5zMJzBuGs%3D&pass_ticket=2kye8RshFSlqZXJRWvqPZeBrDaCZizfierIIsq1WdSjdtrpQXYsK6ZOUlpYnXcig\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3253accc7322a3db322a8557ee9834","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzAwOTc2MDg0Ng==&mid=2650994633&idx=1&sn=5402dd2aa94798304b28833d05fc3c60&chksm=80aceee8b7db67fef3dfe5144571e6da1fb84c47b5a270bf62a85e3af19d92ea80ab8070acb5&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=0714Gp52ktc01XPzuRdCWMwX&sharer_sharetime=1594736233196&sharer_shareid=715eb1d78c44c5260fabf65e8728db40&key=b5fefcfa89041be7c4333bced61100d98723009bcb3dcfb84ce3d26c00ddc284b04deb2703625cdb1e2eb001463cea21c40e2c856b7e50610d6487e9364dc7e992458504d4982c07ea93cd3d7afb336d&ascene=1&uin=MjIyNzA3NjE3Ng%3D%3D&devicetype=Windows+10+x64&version=62090529&lang=zh_CN&exportkey=AVKYGRHpBzNF1S5zMJzBuGs%3D&pass_ticket=2kye8RshFSlqZXJRWvqPZeBrDaCZizfierIIsq1WdSjdtrpQXYsK6ZOUlpYnXcig","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102340935","content_text":"作者|苏宁金融研究院副院长 薛洪言让基金经理为你赶车艾·里斯在《人生定位》中提出了赛马理论:如果人生是一场赛马,赢得比赛的,未必是最好的骑手,那些拥有最好赛马的骑手,更容易笑到最后。什么是赛马呢?以人生的不同阶段为例,求学时期,学校就是你的赛马,重点中学胜率大于普通中学,清北复交胜过一般本科;工作阶段,行业和公司就是你的赛马,IT互联网的胜率大于建筑设计,BAT相比小公司更容易让你成才。推而广之,相同的毕业学校,专业就是你的赛马,金融这匹马更容易让你赚到钱;在同一家公司,岗位就是你的赛马,营销岗位更容易让你赚到钱。所以,在人生这条路上,每个人都骑着很多匹马。很多时候,个人的聪明才智所发挥的作用,远远比不上他骑着一匹怎样的马。不管你多么聪慧敏锐,把注压在一个输家身上是永远得不到回报的。泰坦尼克上最优秀的官员到最后也要与最没用的人待在同一条救生艇里,前提还是他要足够幸运,没有掉进水里。在股市里炒股,也是同样的道理。很多散户所凭借的,不过是自身的经验、知识和小道消息,他们总是单打独斗,所以绝大多数都做了分母。自始至终,他们骑着的是他们自己,他们以自己为马。在股市这个赛道中,散户自己显然不是跑得最快的马,他们没有受过专业训练,缺乏专业的后勤补给,情绪波动大,缺乏纪律约束,甚至也没有专业的装备。他们和机构同台竞技,通常是被碾压的一方,被割了韭菜,正如股市中那句俗语:当有钱人遇到有经验的人,有经验的人最终会变得有钱,而有钱人最终会得到经验。眼馋牛市的收益,何必亲自下场呢?把钱交给有经验的人替你管理,不要以自己为马,挑一匹跑得更快的马,才是更好的选择。基金,就是这样一匹马。买一只基金,基金经理会为你赶车,你在车上只要呼呼睡觉就好了。买什么最好?截止2020年一季度末,国内基金总数超过6800只,其中股票型基金1188只。面对1188只由专业人士打理的基金,普通投资者该如何挑选呢?对小白投资者而言,最佳选择就是指数基金。这个结论不是我下的,巴菲特、达利欧、约翰•博格等全球知名投资人都表达过类似的观点。如巴菲特就曾留下遗嘱,他去世之后,托管给妻子的资金必须投资于指数基金。巴菲特解释道:我相信根据现行政策,该信托基金的长期业绩将优于大多数投资者的业绩——无论他们投资的是养老基金、机构基金还是个人基金,因为它们雇用的都是费用昂贵的基金经理。巴菲特所谓「昂贵的基金经理」,是指相比低费率的指数型基金,非指数型股票基金的管理费用太高,在时间的复利效应下会极大地侵蚀利润。况且,有研究表明,长期来看,95%以上的主动管理型基金都跑不赢指数基金。巴菲特老爷子还用真金白银表达过自己对指数基金的支持。2008年,巴菲特同某对冲基金公司打赌,赌该公司旗下5只最顶尖的对冲基金在10年内跑不赢标准普尔500指数,赌注100万美元。最后,巴菲特赢了赌注。长期来看,指数基金之所以表现更好,除了较低的费率外,更重要的是指数基金属于被动管理,买入并持有构成指数的成分股,与「市场先生」保持一致。而非指数基金强调跑赢市场、跑赢指数,需要基金经理主动操作。但问题恰恰在于,基金经理也是普通人,他们也会受情绪控制,犯各种散户会犯的错误。从结果上看,他们也许比散户更专业,但通常打不赢「市场先生」。与时间做朋友很多老股民,都不愿意买指数,觉得不刺激。市场中每天都有涨停的股票,少则几十只,多则几百只;而指数(如上证指数)涨个2%就算不错了,赚钱效应弱爆了。但从结果上看,绝大多数股民,牛市中盈利跑不赢指数,熊市里亏损远远高于指数。指数盈利的奥秘,藏在时间的长河中,藏在复利效应里。10万元本金,哪怕每年涨幅只有10%,只要拿的住,30年之后就能增值17.5倍,变成175万元。你可能会说,到哪里去找年均收益10%的投资呢?上证指数就是。都说A股牛短熊长,但上证指数从上市100点到现在3345点(2020年7月7日),30年涨了33.45倍,年均涨幅12.4%。所以,看似不起眼的指数,在时间的长河里,跑赢了通胀,跑赢了存款,跑赢了银行理财。话虽如此,买入时点也很重要。如果是2015年6月12日在5166点买入,现在还深套其中。对于普通投资者,很难去选择买入时点,可行的办法就是分散买入时点,即基金定投。只需要每周或每月投入一定金额的资金,就能把买入时点的影响抹平,在时间的长河中尽情享受复利效应。嘉信理财金融研究中心曾做过一个研究,假定5位投资者每年拿出2000美元购买指数,其中,有位投资者每年都选择了最佳买入点(最低点买入),有位投资者每次都是最糟糕买入点(最高点买入),20年之后,二者的盈利差距不到1.5万美元。见下图。资料来源:[美] 托尼·罗宾斯 、[美]彼得·莫劳克,《不可撼动的财务自由》,中信出版社,2020.就普通投资者而言,不必追求最佳买点,也不可能总是最差买点,只要定期买入、长期持有,做时间的朋友就够了。关键是仓位这几天,股市大涨,很多发誓不再炒股的股民陆续回来了。我有一个朋友,周一(7月6日)跑步入市,买入指数基金。周一股市涨得好,他很沮丧,因为拉高了他的成本;周二(7月7日)股市也还行,但他认为太疲软了,似乎指数不涨5个点,对不住他的热情支持。我评论说疲软正好加仓,他又不敢,说等周一这笔赚到钱再说。这是很多股民的典型思维模式:着眼于一日两日的涨跌,不能站在牛熊大势的层面布局,捡了芝麻,丢了西瓜。牛市初期,观望大概是所有错误中代价最大的一个。很多投资者,在牛市初期不敢投资,看到身边人赚了钱才慢慢买入,越是谨慎的投资者越是如此。结果就是,他们总是在牛市的后半段大举加仓,把成本做得很高,然后在牛市接近尾声时走向另一个极端,变得无比激进,不惜贷款炒股,甚至卖房炒股。结果,整个牛市里,轻仓介入,只赚到零花钱,却满仓迎接熊市,被熊市的第一个跌停焖在里面,跌幅20%时被套住了,跌幅30%时,割肉离场,然后发誓这辈子再也不碰股票。等下一个牛市来临时,他们忍不住又来了,但谨慎依旧,还是在牛市的后半程进来,重复过去的故事,再次割肉离场,屡战屡败、屡败屡战。正确的做法是反其道行之。最好在熊市中坚持定投。如果三年前定投指数,现在的账面盈利至少在30%-40%了。如果不是,应该在牛市初期快速建仓,把仓位抬高。之后,守住仓位,不因短期的调整离场;待牛市进入后半场,再逐步降低仓位。重仓参与牛市,轻仓迎接熊市,如此周而复始,自然对股市由恨生爱。当然,没有人能够预判股市走势,也没人说得清何为前半场,何为后半程,何为牛熊转换的临界点。但只要保持定力,低点介入、高点离场,大方向上的仓位布局,还是可以做到的。长期资金、长期投资股市变幻莫测,以至于很多人把股市比作「赌场」。短期来看,的确与赌场无疑,因为谁也无法预知第二天的涨跌,买入卖出都像在下注。但长期来看,股市却是能赚钱的,赚的是经济持续增长的钱,赚的是货币超发下资产升值的钱。2008年10月,金融危机后市场最恐慌的时候,巴菲特在《纽约时报》发表一篇文章,题目为《买入美国,正当时》,里面有一段话,讲的就是长期投资的价值:从长期来看,股市给投资者带来的一定是好消息。20 世纪,美国经历了两次世界大战,还在许多其他军事冲突中付出了沉重的代价。美国经历了大萧条,还经历了其他十几次小小的经济衰退和金融危机。美国经历过石油危机、经历过流感疫情、经历过总统因丑闻而辞职。然而,道指还是从 66 点上涨到 11,497 点。所以,只要对国家经济发展的长期前景有信心,对股市就可以有信心。站在长期投资的视角,买入中国。既然是长期投资,自然要长期持有;既然是长期持有,自然要求长期资金。所以,最好用三五年内都用不到的闲钱来投资,或者从工资里每月拿出一定的比例来投资,切忌使用有压力的资金。之后,保持耐心即可,毕竟,「股市是一种将财富从没有耐心的人手中转移到有耐心的人手中的工具。」无论如何,建仓写到这里。很多读者可能会问,最根本的前提没有解决啊,现在究竟算不算牛市?其实,写了这么多,就是想告诉你,无论是不是牛市,都不影响你当下的投资:如果还在熊市,正好建仓;如果是牛市初显,更要加快建仓。无论如何都要建仓,不是吗?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314936291,"gmtCreate":1612283868413,"gmtModify":1703760012677,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535919852177389","authorIdStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"发现需求,解决方案,单元模型,Benchmark,迭代优化——创业最初的样子。这篇文章回答了(不一定好),Clubhouse 究竟满足了什么需求?与替代品相比如何?未来的商业模式可能是什么?竞争优势又是什么?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMGR\">$Clubhouse Media Group Inc(CMGR)$</a>","listText":"发现需求,解决方案,单元模型,Benchmark,迭代优化——创业最初的样子。这篇文章回答了(不一定好),Clubhouse 究竟满足了什么需求?与替代品相比如何?未来的商业模式可能是什么?竞争优势又是什么?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMGR\">$Clubhouse Media Group Inc(CMGR)$</a>","text":"发现需求,解决方案,单元模型,Benchmark,迭代优化——创业最初的样子。这篇文章回答了(不一定好),Clubhouse 究竟满足了什么需求?与替代品相比如何?未来的商业模式可能是什么?竞争优势又是什么?$Clubhouse Media Group Inc(CMGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314936291","repostId":"1187446815","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187446815","pubTimestamp":1612194236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187446815?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-01 23:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"用户五千、估值过亿,社交新贵Clubhouse席卷硅谷","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187446815","media":"Yourseeker","summary":"近一个月,一款流行于美国 VC、名人圈层的新兴社交产品一直热度不减。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/510a64ff59f5f649e0ae2697516e3f78\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>近一个月,一款流行于美国 VC、名人圈层的新兴社交产品一直热度不减。它叫 Clubhouse,誉为“音频 Twitter”,还没正式上架,内测用户才五千,估值已达 1 亿美元。</p>\n<p>简言之这是个实时语音聊天室。打开 App,你可以查看房间里都有谁,在聊什么,决定是否继续听或直接加入群聊。</p>\n<p>它之所以持续引发热议,原因包括但不限于:</p>\n<p>1)<b>风评两极分化严重。</b>用过的人里,极度看好的表示,这是他们自 Instagram 之后首次看到让人如此兴奋的社交产品,体验新奇,且充满可能性;极度看衰的人则认为,这完全就是硅谷精英的自嗨。</p>\n<p>而这些评价完全不影响它在 Twitter 上继续疯狂刷屏。用上的人自然要点评一番,好让大家知道自己用过;还没用上的众多蝗虫用户,又都在求内测资格,以便成为前一种人。场面堪称火爆。</p>\n<p>2)<b>极度奉行快速迭代策略。</b>核心团队只有两个人,每天都会发布新版本、加入新功能。</p>\n<p>这俩都是连续创业者,一个曾在 Google 工作,在 Benchmark 担任驻地企业家一年多,出来创业做了个产品名为 Highlight,被 A16Z 投资并于 2016 年被 Pinterest 收购。</p>\n<p>3)<b>母公司投资阵容豪华。</b>Clubhouse 母公司 Alpha Exploration 在今年 2 月完成种子轮融资。投资者包括 Houseparty 联合创始人,知名天使投资人 Todd Goldberg,Superhuman 联合创始人,AngelList 联合创始人等。</p>\n<p>4)<b>Clubhouse 最新一轮融资引发美国两大重量级 VC 争相竞购。</b>Benchmark 报价 8000 万美元,A16Z 开出更好的价格并成功投了 A 轮——以 1 亿美元估值投资 1000 万。</p>\n<p>5)<b>用户行为和特征均十分特殊。</b>据说它的一些早期用户平均每天使用时长 8 到 12 个小时。而相较正常社交产品 1 个用户大概值 100 美元的价格,Clubhouse 单用户价值 20000 美元,足足是前者的 200 倍。</p>\n<p>这么神奇,它凭什么?</p>\n<p>这篇本文试图回答:<b>Clubhouse 究竟满足了什么需求?与替代品相比如何?未来的商业模式可能是什么?竞争优势又是什么?</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7426f00394a48d4726fd7b0331f920c1\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"970\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Clubhouse 之所以迅速引发讨论,其实是占了播客和社交这两个时下很火热、且所有人都难以抗拒的话题的便宜。</p>\n<p><b>播客的妙处在于,它可以是一种有效拉近用户和“名人”距离的社交方式</b>(尽管这种“社交”并不对等)。大多数人第一次选择去听其他人在聊什么,这里的“其他人”很大概率不会是他们之前不熟悉、没听过的人。而借由播客来了解你所关注的人的思考方式和说话方式,带来的直接结果就是,你听的越多,越喜欢他们。</p>\n<p><b>播客还可以是一种学习方式。</b>不要认为大多数人对“学习”不感兴趣:生活方式、游戏、体育这些都可以被学习。很多人花了大量时间在视频(快手、抖音、B站、TikTok、Twitch、YouTube)、图文(微博、Twitter、小红书)上,起因可能也只是因为他们想学习。</p>\n<p>只不过,他们并不是学习如何工作,而是学习如何生活。很多实践和社会性技能是学校不可能教的,但又必定贯穿正常人的一生。</p>\n<p>当然,播客并不是社交+学习的唯一途径,图文和视频也可以。但是 Clubhouse 又把社交元素加入进来,这种不需要脚本的实时对话,使得它相较其他社交产品又具有独特的优势。</p>\n<p>首先,声音的产生和消费不需要眼睛的参与,这使得音频比文字和视频的适用场景更广泛、适应性更强。</p>\n<p>音频的另一个好处是,当你进入一小撮人的实时交流时,它能产生一定的流动性。</p>\n<p>你如何在 Clubhouse 上认识人?进入一个关注者的房间,举手说话或单纯聆听。这个简单的机制解决了播客作为社交方式最大的问题之一:破冰。</p>\n<p>当然,此前并非没有产品尝试过把播客扩展为一种社交方式,但它们基本都没成功。</p>\n<p>Clubhouse 目前的氛围和用户群都表明它有望进一步实现这个梦想。而在此之前,我们可以看看过去的类似产品都是如何失败的。</p>\n<p>美国此前陆续出现一系列音频社交 App,<b>我们以 Anchor,Bumpers,TTYL,Talk Show 为例来具体分析。</b></p>\n<p>首先,Anchor 和 Bumpers都是 2015 年左右在纽约成立的,二者思路相似:带你认识“音频发烧友”。</p>\n<p>登录之后,你可以听到自己所关注的人的简短录音提要,然后决定是否评论、回复,或是发布自己的音频内容。不少人在这两个平台上都收获了相当多的粉丝。</p>\n<p>但最终,Anchor 成为播客工具,并于 2018 年被 Spotify 收购;Bumpers 成为视频工具,最终被 Coinbase 收购。</p>\n<p>什么地方出了错?录音提要。用户自发上传的简短音频不足以像真正的播客那样吸引人,同时又不足以像 Twitter、Instagram、Facebook 的 feed 流那样给人持续高频的刺激。</p>\n<p>如今所有亿级用户产品(微信朋友圈、抖音、快手、微博、小红书、Twitter、Instagram、Facebook、TikTok 等),都可以让你很快地发现一条有趣的推文/视频,因为浏览和消费内容的速度快、效率高。</p>\n<p>但是音频不行,即使每一分钟中有 3 个片段很有料,你依然很难快速找到。</p>\n<p>这就是我之前所说的播客固有的缺陷之一:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73239228942b39a5710a24a9b1d663e6\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>或者这样理解,<b>同样是异步“对话”(图文、音频、视频),只要人们还足够喜欢、习惯 Feed 流的体验,那么他们就永远难以喜欢、习惯、尝试去探索一段“对话”。</b></p>\n<p>TTYL(Talk With Friends)跳出了播客固有的玩法,它允许朋友之间通过音频对话。但没有全局视图可供加入,也没有演讲者/听众的区别。这就带来了严重的社交流动性挑战。为了真正把这个产品用起来,你必须认识 50 个人才有可能。</p>\n<p>为什么?当你打开它时,它会向你的朋友发送通知,他们中的某些人可以选择加入。但问题是,比例会有多少?通常不超过 5%。如果你有 50 个朋友,会有 2 或 3 个加入,这远远不够。</p>\n<p>另外,由于他们都是你现有的朋友,所以你始终可以通过其他产品和他们交流,留在 TTYL 就变得没有必要,而这显然会限制产品的自发增长和进一步使用。</p>\n<p>Talk Show 曾经尝试把播客“实时化”。你可以通过它向朋友发送邀请,一起录制一段音频节目,他们可以通过 App 或电话加入。一旦你开始录制,就可以在 Twitter 或其他社交平台同步一个链接,这样其他人也能看到、可以同步收听。</p>\n<p>这个想法最初是为了减少录制音频的摩擦,因为对于创作者而言,生产一段高质量播客的成本是不低的。但它后来也没成功,虽然在创作者一侧有所改进,但对于听众来说,体验几乎没差别。</p>\n<p>Clubhouse 的诞生可能算是集合了以上所有产品的优点:</p>\n<p>1)你无需事先安排一场对话,这就要比录播客轻松很多。</p>\n<p>2)它保留了 TTYL 的交互式体验。</p>\n<p>3)由于对话是公开的,社交流动性得以解决。任何人都可以加入,主动发言或是单纯聆听,你完全可以在不想讲话时正常使用。</p>\n<p>4)它解决了困扰 Anchor 和 Bumpers 的“提要”问题,因为听有趣的人实时进行 40 分钟的交谈是一种更特殊的体验,它和 feed 流并不在同一维度竞争。</p>\n<p>倒数第二个问题,Clubhouse 存在什么缺陷?</p>\n<p>Clubhouse 的主要功能是提高对话的流动性、帮助人们更好地用音频沟通。这意味着,理想情况下,你可以随时加入,并进入一个你认为的最酷的人的房间,他们在谈论你真正感兴趣的内容。而当你加入时,他们会注意到你、甚至可能邀请你发言,然后大家聊得很愉快,听众也收获颇丰。</p>\n<p>但是,这种高质量的聊天永远是稀缺的,如何让它们更多、更快产生?</p>\n<p>不如这样思考,什么情况下这种高质量的聊天极难获得?如果消除了障碍,就可以达成目的。</p>\n<p>一个比较明显的障碍是,你如何判断哪个房间“最好”。如果同时看到二十个可供加入,你怎么知道加入哪个最不容易后悔?</p>\n<p>最直接的解决办法是:可以在每个房间的人物界面处添加更多的个人说明。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/378950b15c6ab0d2424c3ec64f1b7ff4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"740\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">此外,这种实时音频社交还可能需要一些功能:比如在冷场时抛出某个可供讨论的话题,内置一些可以共同参与的社交游戏,内嵌 1v1 私聊的功能(就像小组讨论时你和别人私下耳语),甚至是允许用户在想要发言时输入一些简短的文字,以便大家知道他们想说什么。</p>\n<p>最后一个问题,Clubhouse 未来如何赚钱。</p>\n<p>2C 社交产品一般都很晚才考虑商业化。而且过去的默认假设是,先做到一定规模,然后在信息流投广告。但在国外 Facebook、Google 统治线上广告的世界,小产品想杀出重围太难了。</p>\n<p>更何况,人们现在对隐私相当敏感。不掌握隐私没法精准投放,不精准就没人愿意投钱。</p>\n<p>Clubhouse 创始人目前的想法是,他希望专注于通过这个产品的用户本身获利。可能的途径包括:打赏小费,高级创作者的订阅费,房间和用户头像皮肤,需要付费解锁的社交游戏等等。</p>\n<p>最终选择哪些途径,显然还要参考核心用户的体验,从他们使用过程去考虑。广告太死板,也太粗暴了。</p>\n<p>此外,一定的商业化收入还可以带来一个好处:与潜在收购方进行谈判。</p>\n<p>Periscope 和 Vine 被收购是一场悲剧。如果他们有机会作为独立平台进行更多玩法的尝试,结局可能会不一样。而 Instagram 和 Snapchat 到今天依然强大,也许是有原因的。如果收购的太早,可能会无意中破坏很多价值。</p>\n<p>谁会是正确的收购方?</p>\n<p>Twitter 显然是一个。他们已经买了一家直播视频公司,再买一个音频公司应该也不排斥。他们的核心业务是最大限度地延长用户时长,以便展示更多广告。Clubhouse 符合需求。</p>\n<p>另外,如果 Clubhouse 基于用户的 Twitter 个人资料和关注者列表来拓展,可能会走得更快些。</p>\n<p>Spotify 是另一个潜在收购方。他们一直在避免将所有收入都支付给唱片公司,主要策略就是让用户在产品中消费其他类型的音频内容,即播客。Clubhouse 在一定程度上有潜力取代播客。因此,收购 Clubhouse 对 Spotify 而言,不仅是进攻方式,也是防御手段。</p>\n<p>对于 Spotify 来说,Clubhouse 还可能代表一种独特的内容形式,这是你在其他任何地方都无法获得的。如果还能发挥音乐版权效果,在房间中加入背景音乐,可以使 Clubhouse 体验变得更好。</p>\n<p><b>最后需要指出,社交是条极残酷的赛道,Clubhouse 的未来,要么化为乌有,要么举足轻重。</b></p>\n<p>国外 Facebook + Instagram + WhatsApp + Messenger 的局面几乎锁死了一众社交新品的天花板。但正如 Ben Evans 所言,硅谷是个运行各项实验的系统,既然是实验总归会失败,the key is for the ones that work to really really work。</p>\n<p>不管小环境还是大环境,有活力,有犯错的可能,才有希望。</p>","source":"lsy1571639847900","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>用户五千、估值过亿,社交新贵Clubhouse席卷硅谷</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n用户五千、估值过亿,社交新贵Clubhouse席卷硅谷\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-01 23:43 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ehw3kbw7ut1vHJmUbB7lYQ><strong>Yourseeker</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近一个月,一款流行于美国 VC、名人圈层的新兴社交产品一直热度不减。它叫 Clubhouse,誉为“音频 Twitter”,还没正式上架,内测用户才五千,估值已达 1 亿美元。\n简言之这是个实时语音聊天室。打开 App,你可以查看房间里都有谁,在聊什么,决定是否继续听或直接加入群聊。\n它之所以持续引发热议,原因包括但不限于:\n1)风评两极分化严重。用过的人里,极度看好的表示,这是他们自 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ehw3kbw7ut1vHJmUbB7lYQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/902e24405e6f8469b5585563679a82b4","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ehw3kbw7ut1vHJmUbB7lYQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187446815","content_text":"近一个月,一款流行于美国 VC、名人圈层的新兴社交产品一直热度不减。它叫 Clubhouse,誉为“音频 Twitter”,还没正式上架,内测用户才五千,估值已达 1 亿美元。\n简言之这是个实时语音聊天室。打开 App,你可以查看房间里都有谁,在聊什么,决定是否继续听或直接加入群聊。\n它之所以持续引发热议,原因包括但不限于:\n1)风评两极分化严重。用过的人里,极度看好的表示,这是他们自 Instagram 之后首次看到让人如此兴奋的社交产品,体验新奇,且充满可能性;极度看衰的人则认为,这完全就是硅谷精英的自嗨。\n而这些评价完全不影响它在 Twitter 上继续疯狂刷屏。用上的人自然要点评一番,好让大家知道自己用过;还没用上的众多蝗虫用户,又都在求内测资格,以便成为前一种人。场面堪称火爆。\n2)极度奉行快速迭代策略。核心团队只有两个人,每天都会发布新版本、加入新功能。\n这俩都是连续创业者,一个曾在 Google 工作,在 Benchmark 担任驻地企业家一年多,出来创业做了个产品名为 Highlight,被 A16Z 投资并于 2016 年被 Pinterest 收购。\n3)母公司投资阵容豪华。Clubhouse 母公司 Alpha Exploration 在今年 2 月完成种子轮融资。投资者包括 Houseparty 联合创始人,知名天使投资人 Todd Goldberg,Superhuman 联合创始人,AngelList 联合创始人等。\n4)Clubhouse 最新一轮融资引发美国两大重量级 VC 争相竞购。Benchmark 报价 8000 万美元,A16Z 开出更好的价格并成功投了 A 轮——以 1 亿美元估值投资 1000 万。\n5)用户行为和特征均十分特殊。据说它的一些早期用户平均每天使用时长 8 到 12 个小时。而相较正常社交产品 1 个用户大概值 100 美元的价格,Clubhouse 单用户价值 20000 美元,足足是前者的 200 倍。\n这么神奇,它凭什么?\n这篇本文试图回答:Clubhouse 究竟满足了什么需求?与替代品相比如何?未来的商业模式可能是什么?竞争优势又是什么?\n\nClubhouse 之所以迅速引发讨论,其实是占了播客和社交这两个时下很火热、且所有人都难以抗拒的话题的便宜。\n播客的妙处在于,它可以是一种有效拉近用户和“名人”距离的社交方式(尽管这种“社交”并不对等)。大多数人第一次选择去听其他人在聊什么,这里的“其他人”很大概率不会是他们之前不熟悉、没听过的人。而借由播客来了解你所关注的人的思考方式和说话方式,带来的直接结果就是,你听的越多,越喜欢他们。\n播客还可以是一种学习方式。不要认为大多数人对“学习”不感兴趣:生活方式、游戏、体育这些都可以被学习。很多人花了大量时间在视频(快手、抖音、B站、TikTok、Twitch、YouTube)、图文(微博、Twitter、小红书)上,起因可能也只是因为他们想学习。\n只不过,他们并不是学习如何工作,而是学习如何生活。很多实践和社会性技能是学校不可能教的,但又必定贯穿正常人的一生。\n当然,播客并不是社交+学习的唯一途径,图文和视频也可以。但是 Clubhouse 又把社交元素加入进来,这种不需要脚本的实时对话,使得它相较其他社交产品又具有独特的优势。\n首先,声音的产生和消费不需要眼睛的参与,这使得音频比文字和视频的适用场景更广泛、适应性更强。\n音频的另一个好处是,当你进入一小撮人的实时交流时,它能产生一定的流动性。\n你如何在 Clubhouse 上认识人?进入一个关注者的房间,举手说话或单纯聆听。这个简单的机制解决了播客作为社交方式最大的问题之一:破冰。\n当然,此前并非没有产品尝试过把播客扩展为一种社交方式,但它们基本都没成功。\nClubhouse 目前的氛围和用户群都表明它有望进一步实现这个梦想。而在此之前,我们可以看看过去的类似产品都是如何失败的。\n美国此前陆续出现一系列音频社交 App,我们以 Anchor,Bumpers,TTYL,Talk Show 为例来具体分析。\n首先,Anchor 和 Bumpers都是 2015 年左右在纽约成立的,二者思路相似:带你认识“音频发烧友”。\n登录之后,你可以听到自己所关注的人的简短录音提要,然后决定是否评论、回复,或是发布自己的音频内容。不少人在这两个平台上都收获了相当多的粉丝。\n但最终,Anchor 成为播客工具,并于 2018 年被 Spotify 收购;Bumpers 成为视频工具,最终被 Coinbase 收购。\n什么地方出了错?录音提要。用户自发上传的简短音频不足以像真正的播客那样吸引人,同时又不足以像 Twitter、Instagram、Facebook 的 feed 流那样给人持续高频的刺激。\n如今所有亿级用户产品(微信朋友圈、抖音、快手、微博、小红书、Twitter、Instagram、Facebook、TikTok 等),都可以让你很快地发现一条有趣的推文/视频,因为浏览和消费内容的速度快、效率高。\n但是音频不行,即使每一分钟中有 3 个片段很有料,你依然很难快速找到。\n这就是我之前所说的播客固有的缺陷之一:\n\n或者这样理解,同样是异步“对话”(图文、音频、视频),只要人们还足够喜欢、习惯 Feed 流的体验,那么他们就永远难以喜欢、习惯、尝试去探索一段“对话”。\nTTYL(Talk With Friends)跳出了播客固有的玩法,它允许朋友之间通过音频对话。但没有全局视图可供加入,也没有演讲者/听众的区别。这就带来了严重的社交流动性挑战。为了真正把这个产品用起来,你必须认识 50 个人才有可能。\n为什么?当你打开它时,它会向你的朋友发送通知,他们中的某些人可以选择加入。但问题是,比例会有多少?通常不超过 5%。如果你有 50 个朋友,会有 2 或 3 个加入,这远远不够。\n另外,由于他们都是你现有的朋友,所以你始终可以通过其他产品和他们交流,留在 TTYL 就变得没有必要,而这显然会限制产品的自发增长和进一步使用。\nTalk Show 曾经尝试把播客“实时化”。你可以通过它向朋友发送邀请,一起录制一段音频节目,他们可以通过 App 或电话加入。一旦你开始录制,就可以在 Twitter 或其他社交平台同步一个链接,这样其他人也能看到、可以同步收听。\n这个想法最初是为了减少录制音频的摩擦,因为对于创作者而言,生产一段高质量播客的成本是不低的。但它后来也没成功,虽然在创作者一侧有所改进,但对于听众来说,体验几乎没差别。\nClubhouse 的诞生可能算是集合了以上所有产品的优点:\n1)你无需事先安排一场对话,这就要比录播客轻松很多。\n2)它保留了 TTYL 的交互式体验。\n3)由于对话是公开的,社交流动性得以解决。任何人都可以加入,主动发言或是单纯聆听,你完全可以在不想讲话时正常使用。\n4)它解决了困扰 Anchor 和 Bumpers 的“提要”问题,因为听有趣的人实时进行 40 分钟的交谈是一种更特殊的体验,它和 feed 流并不在同一维度竞争。\n倒数第二个问题,Clubhouse 存在什么缺陷?\nClubhouse 的主要功能是提高对话的流动性、帮助人们更好地用音频沟通。这意味着,理想情况下,你可以随时加入,并进入一个你认为的最酷的人的房间,他们在谈论你真正感兴趣的内容。而当你加入时,他们会注意到你、甚至可能邀请你发言,然后大家聊得很愉快,听众也收获颇丰。\n但是,这种高质量的聊天永远是稀缺的,如何让它们更多、更快产生?\n不如这样思考,什么情况下这种高质量的聊天极难获得?如果消除了障碍,就可以达成目的。\n一个比较明显的障碍是,你如何判断哪个房间“最好”。如果同时看到二十个可供加入,你怎么知道加入哪个最不容易后悔?\n最直接的解决办法是:可以在每个房间的人物界面处添加更多的个人说明。\n此外,这种实时音频社交还可能需要一些功能:比如在冷场时抛出某个可供讨论的话题,内置一些可以共同参与的社交游戏,内嵌 1v1 私聊的功能(就像小组讨论时你和别人私下耳语),甚至是允许用户在想要发言时输入一些简短的文字,以便大家知道他们想说什么。\n最后一个问题,Clubhouse 未来如何赚钱。\n2C 社交产品一般都很晚才考虑商业化。而且过去的默认假设是,先做到一定规模,然后在信息流投广告。但在国外 Facebook、Google 统治线上广告的世界,小产品想杀出重围太难了。\n更何况,人们现在对隐私相当敏感。不掌握隐私没法精准投放,不精准就没人愿意投钱。\nClubhouse 创始人目前的想法是,他希望专注于通过这个产品的用户本身获利。可能的途径包括:打赏小费,高级创作者的订阅费,房间和用户头像皮肤,需要付费解锁的社交游戏等等。\n最终选择哪些途径,显然还要参考核心用户的体验,从他们使用过程去考虑。广告太死板,也太粗暴了。\n此外,一定的商业化收入还可以带来一个好处:与潜在收购方进行谈判。\nPeriscope 和 Vine 被收购是一场悲剧。如果他们有机会作为独立平台进行更多玩法的尝试,结局可能会不一样。而 Instagram 和 Snapchat 到今天依然强大,也许是有原因的。如果收购的太早,可能会无意中破坏很多价值。\n谁会是正确的收购方?\nTwitter 显然是一个。他们已经买了一家直播视频公司,再买一个音频公司应该也不排斥。他们的核心业务是最大限度地延长用户时长,以便展示更多广告。Clubhouse 符合需求。\n另外,如果 Clubhouse 基于用户的 Twitter 个人资料和关注者列表来拓展,可能会走得更快些。\nSpotify 是另一个潜在收购方。他们一直在避免将所有收入都支付给唱片公司,主要策略就是让用户在产品中消费其他类型的音频内容,即播客。Clubhouse 在一定程度上有潜力取代播客。因此,收购 Clubhouse 对 Spotify 而言,不仅是进攻方式,也是防御手段。\n对于 Spotify 来说,Clubhouse 还可能代表一种独特的内容形式,这是你在其他任何地方都无法获得的。如果还能发挥音乐版权效果,在房间中加入背景音乐,可以使 Clubhouse 体验变得更好。\n最后需要指出,社交是条极残酷的赛道,Clubhouse 的未来,要么化为乌有,要么举足轻重。\n国外 Facebook + Instagram + WhatsApp + Messenger 的局面几乎锁死了一众社交新品的天花板。但正如 Ben Evans 所言,硅谷是个运行各项实验的系统,既然是实验总归会失败,the key is for the ones that work to really really work。\n不管小环境还是大环境,有活力,有犯错的可能,才有希望。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}