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铁甲钢拳
10-18
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来不只换电还自研智能芯片,并定人大涨
铁甲钢拳
06-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来汽车准确定位是能源科技公司,这两项是社会发展的根本驱动力。未来潜力无限
铁甲钢拳
05-02
没错,有空单再说话
@OtisBen:
$蔚来(NIO)$
你这个交付量是作假吧
铁甲钢拳
2022-08-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来Neo Park,180秒太牛了[强]
铁甲钢拳
2022-06-30
上次做空后蔚来涨到60,这次做空蔚来估计奔100去了,股票上涨中就怕一致看多,有分歧说明没到顶
蔚来潜藏的危机:过去、现在到未来
铁甲钢拳
2022-03-09
$蔚来(NIO)$
20厘米
铁甲钢拳
2022-02-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来均价在那摆着,正应了一句老话一分钱一分货。
铁甲钢拳
2022-01-05
$蔚来(NIO)$
人民日报点赞蔚来
铁甲钢拳
2021-12-29
$蔚来(NIO)$
ET5工业美学的最佳诠释。
铁甲钢拳
2021-12-24
$蔚来(NIO)$
来张内饰
铁甲钢拳
2021-12-24
$蔚来(NIO)$
这才是像样的车
铁甲钢拳
2021-12-23
$蔚来(NIO)$
同时持有三家公司,黑石持有蔚来6000万股,持有小鹏2000万股,持有理想2600万股,外国大牌机构更看好哪家一目了然。
铁甲钢拳
2021-12-21
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来在美受欢迎。
铁甲钢拳
2021-12-21
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来股票今年成交量活跃度全美第三,第一苹果,第二AMD。可见老美股民多喜欢蔚来
铁甲钢拳
2021-12-19
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来小黄龙就是这么帅!
铁甲钢拳
2021-12-17
可预见蔚来近期利好,1.蔚来日下沉走量新车发布2.12月销量新高3,春运长假长途换电模式优势尽显4,ET7交付5,挪威销量稳步上升6,2022第一季度扭亏为盈
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来Neo Park,180秒太牛了[强] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来Neo Park,180秒太牛了[强] ","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来Neo Park,180秒太牛了[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682778695","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":681034037,"gmtCreate":1656558348632,"gmtModify":1704865196011,"author":{"id":"98680021099732","authorId":"98680021099732","name":"铁甲钢拳","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7540e02bb8029faa13235ec6ff128ab0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"98680021099732","authorIdStr":"98680021099732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上次做空后蔚来涨到60,这次做空蔚来估计奔100去了,股票上涨中就怕一致看多,有分歧说明没到顶","listText":"上次做空后蔚来涨到60,这次做空蔚来估计奔100去了,股票上涨中就怕一致看多,有分歧说明没到顶","text":"上次做空后蔚来涨到60,这次做空蔚来估计奔100去了,股票上涨中就怕一致看多,有分歧说明没到顶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681034037","repostId":"2246724008","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2246724008","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656384037,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2246724008?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-28 10:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"蔚来潜藏的危机:过去、现在到未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2246724008","media":"创事记","summary":"危机公关,蔚来是如何翻车的?6月22日傍晚,一辆蔚来测试车辆从上海创新港停车楼三层坠落,致使两名试车员受伤,抢救无效身亡。此前的6月10日,有蔚来车主公开发文表示,自己提车13天的ET7在行驶中“趴窝”。这两起攸关蔚来质量与安全的舆论一时间沸沸扬扬,让夹在其中的ES7新车发布会显得尴尬。对蔚来而言,处理好当下的危机最为紧要。","content":"<html><body><p>\n<span>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/front20220625ac/400/w1280h720/20220625/bb09-9bdffbda00f2e369f061d16ffd14ae1c.jpg\"/>\n<em><span></span></em>\n</span>\n<font>危机公关,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>是如何翻车的?</font>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"416\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/166/w550h416/20220628/3e1d-381c366ef03f45d2aa618fb6f2e6e157.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n</p><p><span>欢迎关注“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>科技”的微信订阅号:techsina </span></p>\n<p>文/乔雪</p>\n<p>来源:Tech星球(ID:tech618)</p>\n<p>48岁的李斌不寻常,民间常讲,本命年容易犯太岁,而今年的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>或许让李斌的白发又多了一些。</p>\n<p>6月22日傍晚,一辆蔚来测试车辆从上海创新港停车楼三层坠落,致使两名试车员受伤,抢救无效身亡。此前的6月10日,有蔚来车主公开发文表示,自己提车13天的ET7在行驶中“趴窝”。</p>\n<p>这两起攸关蔚来质量与安全的舆论一时间沸沸扬扬,让夹在其中的ES7新车发布会显得尴尬。</p>\n<p>对蔚来而言,处理好当下的危机最为紧要。实际上,蔚来走过7年,趟过新造车大大小小的坑。有人认为从2019年最严重的危机中活下来,蔚来的前途本该一路向好,但渡劫的意味是,一个危机过去了,前路可能还要面临更多的危机,甚至从过去的危机中,还能隐约看到未来潜藏的危机。</p>\n<p><strong>眼前的危机,持续发酵</strong></p>\n<p>在蔚来的用户社区,“坠车”这件事平静地像是没发生过。</p>\n<p>大家依然岁月静好地展示着蔚来引以为傲的用户服务:晒出周一签到的免费美式咖啡,展示刚收到的蔚来联名银行卡,晒着周末在“牛屋”的手工课成果,一切都像是蔚来营造出的老样子。</p>\n<p>而以“坠车”为关键词的搜索结果,只有4条相关帖子,其中一条,还在表达着对蔚来舆论处理的不满。</p>\n<p>坠楼27个小时后,蔚来的声明姗姗来迟,急切地撇清“与蔚来车辆无关”,这样的声明令人寒心,很快就被打上了“资本冷血”的标签,舆论一时间沸沸扬扬。</p>\n<p>其中有传言说,坠车是由于挂错档位导致。在蔚来社区内,有不少车主在反映,换挡问题已经是一个很严重的安全隐患。“之前也因为换挡问题误撞了同事的车”,“很多次以为档位切换完了,哪知道根本没成功”,“多次反映问题,但蔚来都不改进,蔚来的初心变了。”</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"741\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/491/w550h741/20220628/26e3-7a72f1e2deea833ea6dd38e30379b6af.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>而目前,除了两条版本均表示这是一起“非车辆原因导致的”意外事故的公告外,还不清楚事件更近一步的真相。</p>\n<p>事件已经过去5天,目前来看,蔚来希望靠冷却下来的舆论热度,再次度过眼前的危机,但从过去的危机来看,并不能判断,这是不是更大危机的征兆。</p>\n<p>大大小小的危机,贯穿了蔚来的整个6月份。</p>\n<p>6月10日,有蔚来车主公开发文表示,自己提车13天的ET7行驶中“趴窝”,正常行驶过程中突然整车断电,刹车失灵,只能依靠惯性缓慢停下,全部电气设备失灵,双闪没法打开。</p>\n<p>根据公开报道,蔚来ET7“趴窝”问题已经在短时间内出现过4例。面对质疑,蔚来给出了“低压蓄电池充电模块失效问题目前看是小概率情况,车机端可识别,售后可修复”的解决方法。这则危机就算是暂时平复下来了。</p>\n<p>或许对蔚来来说,两次意外发生的节点来得不是时候。全新ES7刚刚发布,新车ET7在3月开始陆续交付,ET5也将在9月正式交付,2022款ES8、ES6、EC6也相继发售,频发的安全质量事件,对于重产品的蔚来不是个好兆头。</p>\n<p>一位刚付定金的用户就在社区表示自己的不安和担忧,这会不会成为更多潜在购买者的隐忧还不得知,但眼前的销量问题已经成为一大难题。</p>\n<figure>\n<img h=\"649\" src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/crawl/399/w550h649/20220628/fabd-2c352df02b8b0f55ef1a42eac4e0ba1d.png\" w=\"550\"/>\n</figure>\n<p>在逐渐成为红海市场的智能汽车赛道里,不仅要跑赢自己,更要跑赢行业。</p>\n<p>而从去年7月开始,蔚来的交付量就开始显示出不稳定的因子,当月首次被小鹏和理想反超,10月,蔚来因为产线改造只交付了3667辆。此前,蔚来在造车新势力中销量霸榜长达21个月。综合来看,2021全年销售9.14万辆,被小鹏反超7000辆。</p>\n<p>今年以来,蔚来销量仍不乐观。今年前5个月,小鹏以5.3万辆领跑新能源造车新势力,哪吒、理想紧随其后,甚至零跑汽车也以4万辆的销售规模,排在蔚来的3.7万辆前面。价格和品牌双重竞争加剧,蔚来的先发优势正在被弱化。</p>\n<p>在真枪实弹的销量比拼上,蔚来败下阵来,不是一个好兆头,而坠车事件,只是揭开了一道口子。</p>\n<p><strong>过去的危机,并未远去</strong></p>\n<p>蔚来的危机,似乎从未真正远去。向前追溯,危机来得最密集的关键时刻发生在2019年,开年就给了蔚来当头一棒。</p>\n<p>在北京长安街上,一位蔚来车主按下系统升级后,整辆车不能按动任何一个按键,开始了漫长的1个小时的升级,于是,整辆车就在长安街上大摇大摆地停着,一动不动,交警来了一波又一波,但这辆车连车窗都摇不下来。</p>\n<div sax-type=\"proxy\"></div><p>这是蔚来到现在都无法抹去的一次质量事件,用户端最先显示出不信任,销量节节败退。</p>\n<p>之后,就迎来了蔚来的裁员。</p>\n<p>颠峰时期,蔚来全球员工超过万人,2019年3月,意识到“金融危机”,蔚来最先只想优化3%的人员,几个月后,优化范围变成至少裁掉1200个岗位;5月份,蔚来关闭了旧<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">金山办公</a>室,9月份,又解雇了62名北美员工;12月份,美国圣何塞地区又裁员141人。调整后,蔚来的员工在7500人左右,这意味着蔚来裁掉了超过了四分之一的员工。</p>\n<p>裁员成为蔚来精简规模的一面,而另一方面则是要收缩战线、省着花钱。</p>\n<p>2017年已与上海签署合作协议,计划将蔚来工厂落户嘉定。而彼时,蔚来已经没有勇气再去啃一块如此巨大的骨头,上海工厂计划暂停。而故事的后来,我们都知道了,2019年1月,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>上海超级工厂正式开工,也宣告着蔚来将此机会拱手让人,在全球汽车供应链最繁华的上海建厂的梦碎了。此后,蔚来还相继砍掉了此前一直进行中的ET7项目。</p>\n<p>其实,2019年显示出的危机端倪,本可以在2018年就发现。</p>\n<p>危机发生的前一年5月,蔚来在上海举行ES8试驾活动,选在寸土寸金的外滩。场地租金是每天60万,连续八天,给试驾者提供往返机票,五星级江景酒店,顶级餐饮,而用户只要缴纳5000元意向金就可以参加,很多试驾者在一番奢侈享受后,就直接退了意向金。</p>\n<p>当然,这和2017年第一届NIO Day,花1000万请来梦龙乐队,包下五棵松体育馆、8架飞机,并请来了5000名蔚来车主共襄盛举相比,还是小巫见大巫。</p>\n<p>2018年上半年,蔚来开始研究ES8的中期改款方案。据《稜镜》报道,“在一个房间里,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VP..UK\">VP</a>和总监们觉得哪里可以改,就在车上贴纸条,最后收集了100多个点,内部存在一种氛围,觉得the more, the better,改的地方越多,用户体验越好。”以汽车车尾的刻字为例,ABB这些品牌用的是塑料,成本是5毛钱左右,特斯拉用的是立体贴纸,成本可以忽略不计,蔚来ES8创始版坚持用铝合金,成本是500元。</p>\n<p>根据2018年财报,蔚来的研发费用达到39.98亿元,同比暴涨近65%,而对比特斯拉同期,只有14.6亿美元,成立以来,蔚来累计研发费用已远远超过100亿元。</p>\n<p>但如此高昂的研发费用并没有换回更安全,在2019年的4、5、6月,分别发生蔚来ES8自燃事件,蔚来又不得不向国家市场监管总局备案并召回了4803辆车。</p>\n<p>创业至2019年10月份,蔚来累计亏损高达259亿元,这一年的重重危机,让这艘大船上的船长李斌,只能不断修修补补。</p>\n<p>最为关键的还是资金压力,李斌在不停地找钱,每隔一段时间就传出蔚来的下一任金主:北京亦庄国投的100亿人民币,浙江湖州市吴兴区一笔超50亿元的融资,广汽投资10亿美元,传闻都未成真,最后是合肥的入主才补上了资金的窟窿。</p>\n<p>虽然当时的危机因为输入新鲜血液而暂时解除,内部人认为取消建厂和搁置ET7,是2019年蔚来做出的最正确决定,但向更长远的未来看,这造成了本该在2021年面世的ET7等到今年才上市,蔚来在2021年出现长达1年无新品可售的空档期,ET7错过了最佳贩售期;蔚来失去了自建工厂的机会,在2020年、2021年还要支付给江淮数亿元做为订单不达标的补偿款;而另一边,特斯拉用9个月迅速建好了自己的超级工厂,开始了一骑绝尘的“鲶鱼游戏”,改变了新能源汽车市场的格局。</p>\n<p><strong>未来的危机,仍不乐观</strong></p>\n<p>一路走来,蔚来可以说几乎是趟过了新造车所有的大难题,但实际上是,看似更大的危机还远未到来。</p>\n<p>首先,一大隐忧是,在2019年找到了合肥这一大金主后,合肥在注入资金的同时,对蔚来汽车的发展也提出了明确要求,双方签下了“对赌协议”:要求蔚来2020年营收达到148亿元,2024年营收1200亿元(上市6-8款车型),2020年至2025年总营收4200亿元,总税收78亿元,2025年前在科创板上市。以上条件若无法达成,合肥市有权要求蔚来以8.5%的年利率回购股份。</p>\n<p>现实情况是,2020年,蔚来营收163亿,完成营收目标;2021年,蔚来汽车的营业收入为361.1亿元,增速也在预期范围内,但危机也在不断袭来,以目前逐渐衰落的销量,若想实现上述协议中4200亿元的收入目标,2022-2025年蔚来累计营收需要达到约3687亿元,而对比去年361亿元的营收有10倍的差距,巨大的缺口等着蔚来去填平。</p>\n<p>另一面是,曾经的高端化也在反噬着未来。</p>\n<p>蔚来一直认为自己已经构筑起了用户服务的护城河,极致的服务堪当汽车界的“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>”。但是对汽车消费者而言,细致入微服务固然重要,更重要的还是汽车的质量,尤为重要的还是安全,所有的一切都是建立在安全的基础上。</p>\n<p>曾经,独具特色的Bass换电模式为蔚来带来全新的市场新价值,但同时,也让蔚来背负了过重的商业模式, “换电模式”带来了巨大运营费用。据统计,一个换电站的成本高达200万元左右,换电站蔚来一年的投入就高达12亿元。</p>\n<p>一座换电站能服务到300-400辆车,每辆车每周换1-2次电,换电站想要盈亏平衡需要一天至少达到50 次换电单。但是目前,根据有关报道,北京核心地段的蔚来换电站一天30单左右。换电站想要盈利,要建立在一个庞大的用户基础上,如果不能把用户消费频次拉到一个更高的水平,蔚来可能将陷入换电站的泥潭。</p>\n<p>2020年初,李斌曾透露,不算人力成本、移动服务车的投入,单“服务无忧”这一个项目,蔚来每年在每位车主身上便要亏损4000多元。蔚来一季度销售和管理费用在20亿元以上,亏损17.8亿元,和去年同期相比增长了295%。</p>\n<p>而前车之鉴是,蔚来曾在2019年一度走到破产边缘,就是因为烧钱速度过快导致现金流濒临断裂,持续亏损背后,曾一度标榜的用户服务政策给其带来巨大财务压力。</p>\n<p>就像在危机来袭的2019年,放弃自建工厂、推迟新车研发、接纳有对赌条件的资金,都是被迫在断臂求生。而在持续亏损和眼前的危机面前,蔚来会不会仍然做出短视的决定,这还将是另一重隐忧。</p>\n<p>即便是眼前的危机可以度过,还有更远的挑战仍在等待蔚来。</p>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/default/2fb77759/20151125/320X320.png\"/>\n</div>\n</body></html>","source":"sina_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来潜藏的危机:过去、现在到未来</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来潜藏的危机:过去、现在到未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-28 10:40 北京时间 <a href=http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2022-06-28/doc-imizirav0919208.d.html?vt=4><strong>创事记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>危机公关,蔚来是如何翻车的?\n\n\n\n欢迎关注“新浪科技”的微信订阅号:techsina \n文/乔雪\n来源:Tech星球(ID:tech618)\n48岁的李斌不寻常,民间常讲,本命年容易犯太岁,而今年的蔚来或许让李斌的白发又多了一些。\n6月22日傍晚,一辆蔚来测试车辆从上海创新港停车楼三层坠落,致使两名试车员受伤,抢救无效身亡。此前的6月10日,有蔚来车主公开发文表示,自己提车13天的ET7在行驶中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2022-06-28/doc-imizirav0919208.d.html?vt=4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://n.sinaimg.cn/tech/transform/140/w630h310/20220628/f1a0-b2fbfe096438104d994cf18ea65b1bde.png","relate_stocks":{"BK1588":"回港中概股","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","NIO":"蔚来","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"source_url":"http://tech.sina.cn/csj/2022-06-28/doc-imizirav0919208.d.html?vt=4","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2246724008","content_text":"危机公关,蔚来是如何翻车的?\n\n\n\n欢迎关注“新浪科技”的微信订阅号:techsina \n文/乔雪\n来源:Tech星球(ID:tech618)\n48岁的李斌不寻常,民间常讲,本命年容易犯太岁,而今年的蔚来或许让李斌的白发又多了一些。\n6月22日傍晚,一辆蔚来测试车辆从上海创新港停车楼三层坠落,致使两名试车员受伤,抢救无效身亡。此前的6月10日,有蔚来车主公开发文表示,自己提车13天的ET7在行驶中“趴窝”。\n这两起攸关蔚来质量与安全的舆论一时间沸沸扬扬,让夹在其中的ES7新车发布会显得尴尬。\n对蔚来而言,处理好当下的危机最为紧要。实际上,蔚来走过7年,趟过新造车大大小小的坑。有人认为从2019年最严重的危机中活下来,蔚来的前途本该一路向好,但渡劫的意味是,一个危机过去了,前路可能还要面临更多的危机,甚至从过去的危机中,还能隐约看到未来潜藏的危机。\n眼前的危机,持续发酵\n在蔚来的用户社区,“坠车”这件事平静地像是没发生过。\n大家依然岁月静好地展示着蔚来引以为傲的用户服务:晒出周一签到的免费美式咖啡,展示刚收到的蔚来联名银行卡,晒着周末在“牛屋”的手工课成果,一切都像是蔚来营造出的老样子。\n而以“坠车”为关键词的搜索结果,只有4条相关帖子,其中一条,还在表达着对蔚来舆论处理的不满。\n坠楼27个小时后,蔚来的声明姗姗来迟,急切地撇清“与蔚来车辆无关”,这样的声明令人寒心,很快就被打上了“资本冷血”的标签,舆论一时间沸沸扬扬。\n其中有传言说,坠车是由于挂错档位导致。在蔚来社区内,有不少车主在反映,换挡问题已经是一个很严重的安全隐患。“之前也因为换挡问题误撞了同事的车”,“很多次以为档位切换完了,哪知道根本没成功”,“多次反映问题,但蔚来都不改进,蔚来的初心变了。”\n\n\n\n而目前,除了两条版本均表示这是一起“非车辆原因导致的”意外事故的公告外,还不清楚事件更近一步的真相。\n事件已经过去5天,目前来看,蔚来希望靠冷却下来的舆论热度,再次度过眼前的危机,但从过去的危机来看,并不能判断,这是不是更大危机的征兆。\n大大小小的危机,贯穿了蔚来的整个6月份。\n6月10日,有蔚来车主公开发文表示,自己提车13天的ET7行驶中“趴窝”,正常行驶过程中突然整车断电,刹车失灵,只能依靠惯性缓慢停下,全部电气设备失灵,双闪没法打开。\n根据公开报道,蔚来ET7“趴窝”问题已经在短时间内出现过4例。面对质疑,蔚来给出了“低压蓄电池充电模块失效问题目前看是小概率情况,车机端可识别,售后可修复”的解决方法。这则危机就算是暂时平复下来了。\n或许对蔚来来说,两次意外发生的节点来得不是时候。全新ES7刚刚发布,新车ET7在3月开始陆续交付,ET5也将在9月正式交付,2022款ES8、ES6、EC6也相继发售,频发的安全质量事件,对于重产品的蔚来不是个好兆头。\n一位刚付定金的用户就在社区表示自己的不安和担忧,这会不会成为更多潜在购买者的隐忧还不得知,但眼前的销量问题已经成为一大难题。\n\n\n\n在逐渐成为红海市场的智能汽车赛道里,不仅要跑赢自己,更要跑赢行业。\n而从去年7月开始,蔚来的交付量就开始显示出不稳定的因子,当月首次被小鹏和理想反超,10月,蔚来因为产线改造只交付了3667辆。此前,蔚来在造车新势力中销量霸榜长达21个月。综合来看,2021全年销售9.14万辆,被小鹏反超7000辆。\n今年以来,蔚来销量仍不乐观。今年前5个月,小鹏以5.3万辆领跑新能源造车新势力,哪吒、理想紧随其后,甚至零跑汽车也以4万辆的销售规模,排在蔚来的3.7万辆前面。价格和品牌双重竞争加剧,蔚来的先发优势正在被弱化。\n在真枪实弹的销量比拼上,蔚来败下阵来,不是一个好兆头,而坠车事件,只是揭开了一道口子。\n过去的危机,并未远去\n蔚来的危机,似乎从未真正远去。向前追溯,危机来得最密集的关键时刻发生在2019年,开年就给了蔚来当头一棒。\n在北京长安街上,一位蔚来车主按下系统升级后,整辆车不能按动任何一个按键,开始了漫长的1个小时的升级,于是,整辆车就在长安街上大摇大摆地停着,一动不动,交警来了一波又一波,但这辆车连车窗都摇不下来。\n这是蔚来到现在都无法抹去的一次质量事件,用户端最先显示出不信任,销量节节败退。\n之后,就迎来了蔚来的裁员。\n颠峰时期,蔚来全球员工超过万人,2019年3月,意识到“金融危机”,蔚来最先只想优化3%的人员,几个月后,优化范围变成至少裁掉1200个岗位;5月份,蔚来关闭了旧金山办公室,9月份,又解雇了62名北美员工;12月份,美国圣何塞地区又裁员141人。调整后,蔚来的员工在7500人左右,这意味着蔚来裁掉了超过了四分之一的员工。\n裁员成为蔚来精简规模的一面,而另一方面则是要收缩战线、省着花钱。\n2017年已与上海签署合作协议,计划将蔚来工厂落户嘉定。而彼时,蔚来已经没有勇气再去啃一块如此巨大的骨头,上海工厂计划暂停。而故事的后来,我们都知道了,2019年1月,特斯拉上海超级工厂正式开工,也宣告着蔚来将此机会拱手让人,在全球汽车供应链最繁华的上海建厂的梦碎了。此后,蔚来还相继砍掉了此前一直进行中的ET7项目。\n其实,2019年显示出的危机端倪,本可以在2018年就发现。\n危机发生的前一年5月,蔚来在上海举行ES8试驾活动,选在寸土寸金的外滩。场地租金是每天60万,连续八天,给试驾者提供往返机票,五星级江景酒店,顶级餐饮,而用户只要缴纳5000元意向金就可以参加,很多试驾者在一番奢侈享受后,就直接退了意向金。\n当然,这和2017年第一届NIO Day,花1000万请来梦龙乐队,包下五棵松体育馆、8架飞机,并请来了5000名蔚来车主共襄盛举相比,还是小巫见大巫。\n2018年上半年,蔚来开始研究ES8的中期改款方案。据《稜镜》报道,“在一个房间里,VP和总监们觉得哪里可以改,就在车上贴纸条,最后收集了100多个点,内部存在一种氛围,觉得the more, the better,改的地方越多,用户体验越好。”以汽车车尾的刻字为例,ABB这些品牌用的是塑料,成本是5毛钱左右,特斯拉用的是立体贴纸,成本可以忽略不计,蔚来ES8创始版坚持用铝合金,成本是500元。\n根据2018年财报,蔚来的研发费用达到39.98亿元,同比暴涨近65%,而对比特斯拉同期,只有14.6亿美元,成立以来,蔚来累计研发费用已远远超过100亿元。\n但如此高昂的研发费用并没有换回更安全,在2019年的4、5、6月,分别发生蔚来ES8自燃事件,蔚来又不得不向国家市场监管总局备案并召回了4803辆车。\n创业至2019年10月份,蔚来累计亏损高达259亿元,这一年的重重危机,让这艘大船上的船长李斌,只能不断修修补补。\n最为关键的还是资金压力,李斌在不停地找钱,每隔一段时间就传出蔚来的下一任金主:北京亦庄国投的100亿人民币,浙江湖州市吴兴区一笔超50亿元的融资,广汽投资10亿美元,传闻都未成真,最后是合肥的入主才补上了资金的窟窿。\n虽然当时的危机因为输入新鲜血液而暂时解除,内部人认为取消建厂和搁置ET7,是2019年蔚来做出的最正确决定,但向更长远的未来看,这造成了本该在2021年面世的ET7等到今年才上市,蔚来在2021年出现长达1年无新品可售的空档期,ET7错过了最佳贩售期;蔚来失去了自建工厂的机会,在2020年、2021年还要支付给江淮数亿元做为订单不达标的补偿款;而另一边,特斯拉用9个月迅速建好了自己的超级工厂,开始了一骑绝尘的“鲶鱼游戏”,改变了新能源汽车市场的格局。\n未来的危机,仍不乐观\n一路走来,蔚来可以说几乎是趟过了新造车所有的大难题,但实际上是,看似更大的危机还远未到来。\n首先,一大隐忧是,在2019年找到了合肥这一大金主后,合肥在注入资金的同时,对蔚来汽车的发展也提出了明确要求,双方签下了“对赌协议”:要求蔚来2020年营收达到148亿元,2024年营收1200亿元(上市6-8款车型),2020年至2025年总营收4200亿元,总税收78亿元,2025年前在科创板上市。以上条件若无法达成,合肥市有权要求蔚来以8.5%的年利率回购股份。\n现实情况是,2020年,蔚来营收163亿,完成营收目标;2021年,蔚来汽车的营业收入为361.1亿元,增速也在预期范围内,但危机也在不断袭来,以目前逐渐衰落的销量,若想实现上述协议中4200亿元的收入目标,2022-2025年蔚来累计营收需要达到约3687亿元,而对比去年361亿元的营收有10倍的差距,巨大的缺口等着蔚来去填平。\n另一面是,曾经的高端化也在反噬着未来。\n蔚来一直认为自己已经构筑起了用户服务的护城河,极致的服务堪当汽车界的“海底捞”。但是对汽车消费者而言,细致入微服务固然重要,更重要的还是汽车的质量,尤为重要的还是安全,所有的一切都是建立在安全的基础上。\n曾经,独具特色的Bass换电模式为蔚来带来全新的市场新价值,但同时,也让蔚来背负了过重的商业模式, “换电模式”带来了巨大运营费用。据统计,一个换电站的成本高达200万元左右,换电站蔚来一年的投入就高达12亿元。\n一座换电站能服务到300-400辆车,每辆车每周换1-2次电,换电站想要盈亏平衡需要一天至少达到50 次换电单。但是目前,根据有关报道,北京核心地段的蔚来换电站一天30单左右。换电站想要盈利,要建立在一个庞大的用户基础上,如果不能把用户消费频次拉到一个更高的水平,蔚来可能将陷入换电站的泥潭。\n2020年初,李斌曾透露,不算人力成本、移动服务车的投入,单“服务无忧”这一个项目,蔚来每年在每位车主身上便要亏损4000多元。蔚来一季度销售和管理费用在20亿元以上,亏损17.8亿元,和去年同期相比增长了295%。\n而前车之鉴是,蔚来曾在2019年一度走到破产边缘,就是因为烧钱速度过快导致现金流濒临断裂,持续亏损背后,曾一度标榜的用户服务政策给其带来巨大财务压力。\n就像在危机来袭的2019年,放弃自建工厂、推迟新车研发、接纳有对赌条件的资金,都是被迫在断臂求生。而在持续亏损和眼前的危机面前,蔚来会不会仍然做出短视的决定,这还将是另一重隐忧。\n即便是眼前的危机可以度过,还有更远的挑战仍在等待蔚来。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3538182554979547","authorId":"3538182554979547","name":"如下","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace8da452b181e90404b43523c6aa0ca","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3538182554979547","authorIdStr":"3538182554979547"},"content":"强拉100;拉死这机构,别让坏人得逞……[笑哭]","text":"强拉100;拉死这机构,别让坏人得逞……[笑哭]","html":"强拉100;拉死这机构,别让坏人得逞……[笑哭]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635977874,"gmtCreate":1646819166403,"gmtModify":1646819166403,"author":{"id":"98680021099732","authorId":"98680021099732","name":"铁甲钢拳","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7540e02bb8029faa13235ec6ff128ab0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"98680021099732","authorIdStr":"98680021099732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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