smalltrader的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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11-06

必须做空啊，现在老川上台，基本是打明牌了，该摁住的摁住，该大杀的打杀

10-09

$Joby Aviation, Inc.(JOBY)$

2021-10-29

$滴滴(DIDI)$“说实话，我个人认为滴滴做了那么多年，下架个半年也不至于倒掉”，实际上APP全面下架主要切断了新用户与滴滴的关联，对老用户的影响主要是卸载之后装不上。竞争对手抢到了多少司机与用户不得而知，但至少存量的滴滴司机活得还算滋润。据龙琦估算，在滴滴下架后的7、8、9月间，月收入大概提升了20%左右，不仅一些停掉的奖励回归，而且额度也比之前高。另一位成都滴滴专车司机跑得不那么努力，他的月收入除开气费大约增加了15%左右。

2021-04-06

干你妹的，转移资金让你看出来？又是打压吸货！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-08-25

$拼多多(PDD)$没有平仓啊

2020-07-30

$拼多多(PDD)$只要多头干不死，就往死里干！

2020-07-24

$拼多多(PDD)$66见[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]

2020-07-20

$拼多多(PDD)$喊什么喊，一个没底线的公司有脸说别人底线，不要碧莲。空就对了！

2020-07-14

$拼多多(PDD)$终于要完了，趋势形成中......

2020-07-10

$拼多多(PDD)$空龙初成！等待苍龙吸水

2020-07-07

$拼多多(PDD)$进攻！总攻！

2020-07-06

$拼多多(PDD)$启动！

2020-07-03

$拼多多(PDD)$真的搞不懂了，难道要把我们空军击落倒底？ 100继续🈳️！看你涨哪里去？哎，阿🐱，京🐶 你们在干嘛啊，出手打他呀，都快把你们的地盘强光了！！！！！兄弟党，老师团搞个200亿补贴冲啊！$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$京东(JD)$

2020-06-30

当然高估了！

千亿美元市值的拼多多，真被高估了吗？

2020-06-29

$拼多多(PDD)$PDD严重的高估，哪里有一家假货公司=淘宝+京东+美团的。太不合理了吧！必须继续空它。

2020-06-24

$拼多多(PDD)$保持不动，看你落幕！

2020-06-22

$拼多多(PDD)$加速了，继续上车 ✈️ 俯冲！

2020-06-19

$拼多多(PDD)$空军集结完毕，85已经入场。坐等砸单，航空母舰！

2020-06-18

$拼多多(PDD)$拼多多已经聚集了大量的空军，多空搏杀就在一瞬间。看看谁死，😂

2019-09-06

$老虎证券(TIGR)$🐯[开心][财迷]缺一个点火的理由！就一根火柴就行！不用多。

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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你的历史里下载就好了","text":"删了 也能下载 在app store 你的历史里下载就好了","html":"删了 也能下载 在app store 你的历史里下载就好了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343232418,"gmtCreate":1617717924434,"gmtModify":1617717924434,"author":{"id":"7438237523759456","authorId":"7438237523759456","name":"smalltrader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"7438237523759456","authorIdStr":"7438237523759456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"干你妹的，转移资金让你看出来？ 又是打压吸货！","listText":"干你妹的，转移资金让你看出来？ 又是打压吸货！","text":"干你妹的，转移资金让你看出来？ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>空龙初成！等待苍龙吸水","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$空龙初成！等待苍龙吸水","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943388102","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":949963203,"gmtCreate":1594129629502,"gmtModify":1704204041435,"author":{"id":"7438237523759456","authorId":"7438237523759456","name":"smalltrader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"7438237523759456","authorIdStr":"7438237523759456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>进攻！总攻！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>进攻！总攻！","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$进攻！总攻！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949963203","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940796650,"gmtCreate":1594047216170,"gmtModify":1704203723478,"author":{"id":"7438237523759456","authorId":"7438237523759456","name":"smalltrader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"7438237523759456","authorIdStr":"7438237523759456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>启动！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>启动！","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$启动！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940796650","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940697685,"gmtCreate":1593772179247,"gmtModify":1704203193971,"author":{"id":"7438237523759456","authorId":"7438237523759456","name":"smalltrader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"7438237523759456","authorIdStr":"7438237523759456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>真的搞不懂了，难道要把我们空军击落倒底？ 100继续🈳️！看你涨哪里去？ 哎，阿🐱，京🐶 你们在干嘛啊，出手打他呀，都快把你们的地盘强光了！！！！！ 兄弟党，老师团 搞个200亿补贴冲啊！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>真的搞不懂了，难道要把我们空军击落倒底？ 100继续🈳️！看你涨哪里去？ 哎，阿🐱，京🐶 你们在干嘛啊，出手打他呀，都快把你们的地盘强光了！！！！！ 兄弟党，老师团 搞个200亿补贴冲啊！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$真的搞不懂了，难道要把我们空军击落倒底？ 100继续🈳️！看你涨哪里去？ 哎，阿🐱，京🐶 你们在干嘛啊，出手打他呀，都快把你们的地盘强光了！！！！！ 兄弟党，老师团 搞个200亿补贴冲啊！$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$京东(JD)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940697685","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":957576335,"gmtCreate":1593521645527,"gmtModify":1704202214820,"author":{"id":"7438237523759456","authorId":"7438237523759456","name":"smalltrader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"7438237523759456","authorIdStr":"7438237523759456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当然高估了！","listText":"当然高估了！","text":"当然高估了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/957576335","repostId":"1183486719","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1183486719","pubTimestamp":1593139575,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183486719?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-26 10:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"千亿美元市值的拼多多，真被高估了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183486719","media":"对撞派","summary":"进入2020年以来，拼多多股价气势如虹，“疯”了般的往上涨。\n从38美元涨到84美元（截止6月23日收盘，下同），上涨了122%。\n与此对应的是，拼多多市值一路高歌，突破千亿美元大关（1002亿美元）","content":"<p>进入2020年以来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>股价气势如虹，“疯”了般的往上涨。</p>\n<p>从38美元涨到84美元（截止6月23日收盘，下同），上涨了122%。</p>\n<p>与此对应的是，拼多多市值一路高歌，突破千亿美元大关（1002亿美元），不仅超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>（886亿美元），还比京东高了116亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acb5bf3f68e7f1a10027ae07bacf32a1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>同时，持有拼多多43.4%股权的<b>黄峥</b>，身家也一路水涨船高。</p>\n<p>根据福布斯实时富豪排行榜数据，到了6月21日下午4点，他的身家达到了<b>454亿美金（约合人民币3210亿）</b>，一举超过55岁的马云，成为了中国第二大富豪，仅次于48岁的马化腾。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ba9d2d9a6ccf20116ecf75f991940ef\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>而黄峥，今年才<b>40岁</b>。一股后浪扑面而来的气息，不知道羡煞了多少人。</p>\n<p>但随之而来的还有铺天盖地的质疑。不少人认为，“依靠补贴驱动”的拼多多能有这么高的市值，泡沫肯定不会少。</p>\n<p>更有甚者，早已开始做空拼多多了，但在拼多多一路向上的股价面前，下场可想而知。</p>\n<p>那么，千亿美元市值，拼多多被高估还是低估了呢？</p>\n<p>今天，我们就来聊下这个话题。先来说个结论——拼多多千亿美元市值，放在今年算高估，但到了明年，就不一定了。</p>\n<p>在开始回答上述问题之前，我们先来看一组数据：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 截止到2020年6月23日，拼多多流通股票的持仓成本平均为60.87美元，获利筹码比例为90.40%。\n <span>（数据来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">老虎证券</a>）</span>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1476684e28169903036abb65165f6e4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\"></p>\n<p>这意味着，持有拼多多流通股票的投资者，目前有<b>90%都是盈利的</b>。结合当天的收盘股价（83.64美元）来看，他们<b>平均收益率为37%。</b></p>\n<p>从这个角度来看，拼多多的确为大多数投资者带来了收益。</p>\n<p>如果你身边有早早买了拼多多股票的朋友，可以找他们请吃饭了。</p>\n<p>同时，这个也透露出了另外一重信息：<span>有近10%的筹码，是在拼多多股价高点的时候进场的。</span></p>\n<p>也就是说，拼多多股价涨到了如此程度，还有人愿意上车。<span>他们显然很看好拼多多未来的发展。</span></p>\n<p>对于他们来说，拼多多将来的走势至关重要，直接决定了他们是被套牢在山顶成为接盘侠，还是吃到拼多多快速发展的红利。</p>\n<p>他们能如愿以偿吗？答案恐怕没有那么乐观。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b8b84333fbdebd7ed12e288351812f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>通常情况下，成熟且盈利的公司一般可以采用<b>P/E</b>（市盈率=股价/每股盈余）、P/B（平均市盈率）的方法进行估值，即通过公司的盈利能力，来看其股价是否合理。</p>\n<p>但尚未实现盈利的公司，显然不适用这种方法，因此基于收入的<b>P/S</b>（市销率=股价/每股营收），通常被用来作为相对估值的依据。</p>\n<p>相比于直接销售产品的公司，电商行业主要的业务模式是提供服务，因此衍生出了<b>P/GMV</b>的模型，来作为估值的方法。</p>\n<p>GMV是商品交易总额（Gross Merchandise Volume）的首字母缩写，一般被记为“销售额+取消订单金额+拒收订单金额+退货订单金额。”</p>\n<p>虽然这种方法容易受到刷单和虚假交易影响，但它胜在适用性强，能够用到电商行业中的各家公司中，方便比较各家公司的情况，也成了投资者使用较多的估值方法。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d9fa0876dbd2dc686fb2cc90a75d2c6\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"381\"></p>\n<p>对于拼多多来说，2019年的GMV为10066亿人民币，当前的市值为1002亿美元，由此得出P/GMV=<b>0.70</b>（汇率按7.06计算，下同）。</p>\n<p>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>和京东相比，这个数字明显高出了不少。</p>\n<p>先看阿里巴巴的情况，它的业务比较多元化，市场对其的估值不仅仅只有电商业务，还有阿里云、蚂蚁集团、大文娱等业务，所以需要先将它们拆开。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc459108c3eaa81e1a446f58ef9eb81\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>阿里云方面，2020财年收入为400亿元人民币，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>给出的估值为770亿美元。</p></li>\n <li><p>2020年1月，路透社报道称，蚂蚁集团的估值达2000亿美元，阿里持股33%对应为660亿美元估值。</p></li>\n <li><p>大文娱方面，2020财年营收为269.48亿元，对比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>4.24的市销率，估值为1144亿元人民币。</p></li>\n <li><p>菜鸟网络方面，阿里巴巴持股63%，2019年11月的估值为2000亿人民币，这部分估值为1260亿人民币。</p></li>\n <li><p>新零售（本地生活）业务方面，2018年11月份成立时的估值为300亿美元，这两年的发展势头不算乐观，暂时按照300亿美元来计算。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>其他方面，还有阿里对投资公司的持股，比如滴滴（450亿美元估值）的5%的股权，22.5亿美元，以及海外零售的布局等等，在阿里整体市值的比重不高，这里不再单独计算。</p>\n<p>排除这些核心业务之后，阿里电商的业务市值规模，大致在4066亿美元左右。2020年财年，阿里巴巴的GMV突破万亿美元，整体的P/GMV=<b>0.41。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b300a78b7938f2ce758fd19158bf8d2d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\"></p>\n<p>而京东，2019年的GMV为20854亿元人民币（约2996亿美元），目前市值为886亿美元，P/GMV=<b>0.30</b>。</p>\n<p>再回过头来看拼多多的0.7，相当于京东的2倍还要多，比阿里高出70%，属于行业非常高的水平了，处于非常优待的状态。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">国泰君安</a>团队分析认为，阿里赴美上市之初的P/GMV为<b>0.59</b>；京东上市之初的P/GMV为<b>0.62</b>，属于较高水平。</p>\n<p>结合这个数据来看，拼多多的合理市值区间应该在<b>840亿美元~880亿美元</b>之间，目前的1000亿美元被高估了<b>14~20%</b>。</p>\n<p>反向来看，拼多多想要维持住当前的估值水平，GMV至少要达到1.16万亿人民币。</p>\n<p>但估值并不仅仅只关乎单一指标，还需要考虑公司的未来发展潜力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6854700937e24db01b5c699187560139\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"408\"></p>\n<p>就GMV单一指标看，拼多多2019年增长速度为113%，阿里巴巴2020财年为23%，京东2019年为22%左右。</p>\n<p>如果拼多多能够保持2019年的GMV增速（113%），这个目标显然不在话下，而且市值会达到1900亿美元左右。</p>\n<p>与现在相比，<b>还有86%的增长空间</b>。</p>\n<p>当然，这只是一个相当初步的分析，不构成投资建议，仅供大家参考。</p>\n<p>最后，再给大家看一组数据：</p>\n<p>目前共有29家机构对拼多多的目标价作出预测，平均价为70.21美元，最低位24.99元，最高为89.96元。</p>\n<p>拼多多股价，已经比平均预期高出20%，逼近最高目标价了。</p>","source":"lsy1590545613001","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n千亿美元市值的拼多多，真被高估了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-26 10:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hJn7s042FXeb34b3k_eECA><strong>对撞派</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>进入2020年以来，拼多多股价气势如虹，“疯”了般的往上涨。\n从38美元涨到84美元（截止6月23日收盘，下同），上涨了122%。\n与此对应的是，拼多多市值一路高歌，突破千亿美元大关（1002亿美元），不仅超过了京东（886亿美元），还比京东高了116亿美元。\n\n同时，持有拼多多43.4%股权的黄峥，身家也一路水涨船高。\n根据福布斯实时富豪排行榜数据，到了6月21日下午4点，他的身家达到了454...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hJn7s042FXeb34b3k_eECA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2db5797ca32628002f32e69d5dea58b","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hJn7s042FXeb34b3k_eECA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183486719","content_text":"进入2020年以来，拼多多股价气势如虹，“疯”了般的往上涨。\n从38美元涨到84美元（截止6月23日收盘，下同），上涨了122%。\n与此对应的是，拼多多市值一路高歌，突破千亿美元大关（1002亿美元），不仅超过了京东（886亿美元），还比京东高了116亿美元。\n\n同时，持有拼多多43.4%股权的黄峥，身家也一路水涨船高。\n根据福布斯实时富豪排行榜数据，到了6月21日下午4点，他的身家达到了454亿美金（约合人民币3210亿），一举超过55岁的马云，成为了中国第二大富豪，仅次于48岁的马化腾。\n\n而黄峥，今年才40岁。一股后浪扑面而来的气息，不知道羡煞了多少人。\n但随之而来的还有铺天盖地的质疑。不少人认为，“依靠补贴驱动”的拼多多能有这么高的市值，泡沫肯定不会少。\n更有甚者，早已开始做空拼多多了，但在拼多多一路向上的股价面前，下场可想而知。\n那么，千亿美元市值，拼多多被高估还是低估了呢？\n今天，我们就来聊下这个话题。先来说个结论——拼多多千亿美元市值，放在今年算高估，但到了明年，就不一定了。\n在开始回答上述问题之前，我们先来看一组数据：\n\n 截止到2020年6月23日，拼多多流通股票的持仓成本平均为60.87美元，获利筹码比例为90.40%。\n （数据来自老虎证券）\n\n\n这意味着，持有拼多多流通股票的投资者，目前有90%都是盈利的。结合当天的收盘股价（83.64美元）来看，他们平均收益率为37%。\n从这个角度来看，拼多多的确为大多数投资者带来了收益。\n如果你身边有早早买了拼多多股票的朋友，可以找他们请吃饭了。\n同时，这个也透露出了另外一重信息：有近10%的筹码，是在拼多多股价高点的时候进场的。\n也就是说，拼多多股价涨到了如此程度，还有人愿意上车。他们显然很看好拼多多未来的发展。\n对于他们来说，拼多多将来的走势至关重要，直接决定了他们是被套牢在山顶成为接盘侠，还是吃到拼多多快速发展的红利。\n他们能如愿以偿吗？答案恐怕没有那么乐观。\n\n通常情况下，成熟且盈利的公司一般可以采用P/E（市盈率=股价/每股盈余）、P/B（平均市盈率）的方法进行估值，即通过公司的盈利能力，来看其股价是否合理。\n但尚未实现盈利的公司，显然不适用这种方法，因此基于收入的P/S（市销率=股价/每股营收），通常被用来作为相对估值的依据。\n相比于直接销售产品的公司，电商行业主要的业务模式是提供服务，因此衍生出了P/GMV的模型，来作为估值的方法。\nGMV是商品交易总额（Gross Merchandise Volume）的首字母缩写，一般被记为“销售额+取消订单金额+拒收订单金额+退货订单金额。”\n虽然这种方法容易受到刷单和虚假交易影响，但它胜在适用性强，能够用到电商行业中的各家公司中，方便比较各家公司的情况，也成了投资者使用较多的估值方法。\n\n对于拼多多来说，2019年的GMV为10066亿人民币，当前的市值为1002亿美元，由此得出P/GMV=0.70（汇率按7.06计算，下同）。\n与阿里巴巴和京东相比，这个数字明显高出了不少。\n先看阿里巴巴的情况，它的业务比较多元化，市场对其的估值不仅仅只有电商业务，还有阿里云、蚂蚁集团、大文娱等业务，所以需要先将它们拆开。\n\n\n阿里云方面，2020财年收入为400亿元人民币，摩根士丹利给出的估值为770亿美元。\n2020年1月，路透社报道称，蚂蚁集团的估值达2000亿美元，阿里持股33%对应为660亿美元估值。\n大文娱方面，2020财年营收为269.48亿元，对比爱奇艺4.24的市销率，估值为1144亿元人民币。\n菜鸟网络方面，阿里巴巴持股63%，2019年11月的估值为2000亿人民币，这部分估值为1260亿人民币。\n新零售（本地生活）业务方面，2018年11月份成立时的估值为300亿美元，这两年的发展势头不算乐观，暂时按照300亿美元来计算。\n\n其他方面，还有阿里对投资公司的持股，比如滴滴（450亿美元估值）的5%的股权，22.5亿美元，以及海外零售的布局等等，在阿里整体市值的比重不高，这里不再单独计算。\n排除这些核心业务之后，阿里电商的业务市值规模，大致在4066亿美元左右。2020年财年，阿里巴巴的GMV突破万亿美元，整体的P/GMV=0.41。\n\n而京东，2019年的GMV为20854亿元人民币（约2996亿美元），目前市值为886亿美元，P/GMV=0.30。\n再回过头来看拼多多的0.7，相当于京东的2倍还要多，比阿里高出70%，属于行业非常高的水平了，处于非常优待的状态。\n国泰君安团队分析认为，阿里赴美上市之初的P/GMV为0.59；京东上市之初的P/GMV为0.62，属于较高水平。\n结合这个数据来看，拼多多的合理市值区间应该在840亿美元~880亿美元之间，目前的1000亿美元被高估了14~20%。\n反向来看，拼多多想要维持住当前的估值水平，GMV至少要达到1.16万亿人民币。\n但估值并不仅仅只关乎单一指标，还需要考虑公司的未来发展潜力。\n\n就GMV单一指标看，拼多多2019年增长速度为113%，阿里巴巴2020财年为23%，京东2019年为22%左右。\n如果拼多多能够保持2019年的GMV增速（113%），这个目标显然不在话下，而且市值会达到1900亿美元左右。\n与现在相比，还有86%的增长空间。\n当然，这只是一个相当初步的分析，不构成投资建议，仅供大家参考。\n最后，再给大家看一组数据：\n目前共有29家机构对拼多多的目标价作出预测，平均价为70.21美元，最低位24.99元，最高为89.96元。\n拼多多股价，已经比平均预期高出20%，逼近最高目标价了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":957235061,"gmtCreate":1593442932553,"gmtModify":1704201988027,"author":{"id":"7438237523759456","authorId":"7438237523759456","name":"smalltrader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"7438237523759456","authorIdStr":"7438237523759456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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