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ronghao
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IP属地:江苏
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ronghao
10-31
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
ronghao
10-30
$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$
ronghao
10-28
$特朗普媒体科技集团 VERTICAL 241101 CALL 41.5/CALL 42.5$
ronghao
10-21
$新思科技(SNPS)$
加油
ronghao
10-19
$新思科技(SNPS)$
ronghao
09-30
$日月光半导体(ASX)$
亏的不多
ronghao
09-25
$日月光半导体(ASX)$
希望看到解套的那一天
ronghao
09-23
$洛克希德马丁(LMT)$
不知道这次 中东会发生什么战争 ,但是基础的防卫经费肯定要打到美国了
ronghao
09-18
$英特尔(INTC)$
对于英特尔 我觉得未来的ultra9 200v芯片还是很好的,这一次积极对公司的战略做了改变,停止扩展,积极赔付客户,都为投资者指明了方向
ronghao
09-17
我觉得大概率是缓慢降息,25个基点
ronghao
09-17
我觉得稳健起,美联储应该是会先25个基点
ronghao
09-17
$日月光半导体(ASX)$
主要是看好封装技术 未来还是很有前途的
ronghao
09-12
从历史的角度看 政治必然和金钱挂钩
ronghao
09-12
对于 博通的问题,我一直认为是之前涨的太好,现在必然回调,我们从博通的盈收和数据上看 都是十分优秀,而市场不认可博通就是因为没有确定未来盈利的模式
ronghao
09-11
$洛克希德马丁(LMT)$
还行 今天跌的不多 九月一直如此
ronghao
09-08
好股票,就是有业绩和有影响力,贾老板的汽车公司,没有业绩只有影响力,就是宣传的影响力,我之前在这个股票上面 栽了一次,基本再也不敢动.。 觉得 芒格老爷子曾经说的 如果你知道在哪里会死,就永远不要去那个地方,要敬畏自己的盲区,如果赚钱了,那当然好,但是假如你这次失败了,可能大量本金就套在里面,所以我的看法是先深入了解这家公司的情况,再做出判断
ronghao
09-07
$日月光半导体(ASX)$
有时间就是生命 但有时候也得等待 大家帮我看看 有没有意义,一直持有
ronghao
09-07
也可能是 周末 觉得未来不确定
非农失业率没惊吓,美联储重要高官鸽声嘹亮,为何美股周五大跌?
ronghao
09-06
其实怎么支付 就是钱如何分配的方式,对于阿里和腾讯都对于 自己的护城河精心保护,我认为两家公司的和解,会继续扩大产业发展和共生,对于消费者是非常好 我们在未来的投资中也要看好国家对于公司的需求,这两家公司都承接着大量公共服务行业,已经成为老百姓离不开的工具,所以如果有足够的闲钱,可以坚定持有
ronghao
09-06
作为一名优秀的投资者要知道 节奏,逢高减仓,封底缓慢买入,其实这种超级大公司,股票已经不是普通机构可以左右的,而是世界对于这些行业的需求产生的买卖关系,短期的下跌可能是投资者急于确定收益,那么这个时候 如果有急用钱的情况,就赶紧清仓,毕竟较大波动会影响人们的判断。。 所以对于未来我们要以开放的角度分析问题
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亏的不多","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8928dc016e14a48b833c25b3d517bd14","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354891957137520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353159856455704,"gmtCreate":1727229503308,"gmtModify":1727229507239,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASX\">$日月光半导体(ASX)$ </a> 希望看到解套的那一天","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASX\">$日月光半导体(ASX)$ </a> 希望看到解套的那一天","text":"$日月光半导体(ASX)$ 希望看到解套的那一天","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a582142919735f0daf6ff6089d828971","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353159856455704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352300958982472,"gmtCreate":1727053893480,"gmtModify":1727053896320,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">$洛克希德马丁(LMT)$ </a> 不知道这次 中东会发生什么战争 ,但是基础的防卫经费肯定要打到美国了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">$洛克希德马丁(LMT)$ </a> 不知道这次 中东会发生什么战争 ,但是基础的防卫经费肯定要打到美国了","text":"$洛克希德马丁(LMT)$ 不知道这次 中东会发生什么战争 ,但是基础的防卫经费肯定要打到美国了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/260ffead2ad949e65f456148fe6bbda5","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352300958982472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350595089584400,"gmtCreate":1726622516772,"gmtModify":1726622880185,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 对于英特尔 我觉得未来的ultra9 200v芯片还是很好的,这一次积极对公司的战略做了改变,停止扩展,积极赔付客户,都为投资者指明了方向","listText":"<a 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200v芯片还是很好的,这一次积极对公司的战略做了改变,停止扩展,积极赔付客户,都为投资者指明了方向","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350595089584400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4137805785318060","authorId":"4137805785318060","name":"mai0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8ecb129eafe5f5d2a070130124900ec","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4137805785318060","idStr":"4137805785318060"},"content":"等200v系列看看实力吧,Intel再不重视服务器市场和ai市场才是真的怪","text":"等200v系列看看实力吧,Intel再不重视服务器市场和ai市场才是真的怪","html":"等200v系列看看实力吧,Intel再不重视服务器市场和ai市场才是真的怪"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350332681810048,"gmtCreate":1726558412921,"gmtModify":1726558414848,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我觉得大概率是缓慢降息,25个基点","listText":"我觉得大概率是缓慢降息,25个基点","text":"我觉得大概率是缓慢降息,25个基点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350332681810048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350332887552328,"gmtCreate":1726558387590,"gmtModify":1726558954344,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我觉得稳健起,美联储应该是会先25个基点","listText":"我觉得稳健起,美联储应该是会先25个基点","text":"我觉得稳健起,美联储应该是会先25个基点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350332887552328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350332684255512,"gmtCreate":1726558335781,"gmtModify":1726558340609,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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政治必然和金钱挂钩","listText":"从历史的角度看 政治必然和金钱挂钩","text":"从历史的角度看 政治必然和金钱挂钩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348587015209288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348586746904856,"gmtCreate":1726122789241,"gmtModify":1726122792403,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对于 博通的问题,我一直认为是之前涨的太好,现在必然回调,我们从博通的盈收和数据上看 都是十分优秀,而市场不认可博通就是因为没有确定未来盈利的模式","listText":"对于 博通的问题,我一直认为是之前涨的太好,现在必然回调,我们从博通的盈收和数据上看 都是十分优秀,而市场不认可博通就是因为没有确定未来盈利的模式","text":"对于 博通的问题,我一直认为是之前涨的太好,现在必然回调,我们从博通的盈收和数据上看 都是十分优秀,而市场不认可博通就是因为没有确定未来盈利的模式","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348586746904856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348278139105312,"gmtCreate":1726069802357,"gmtModify":1726069805368,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">$洛克希德马丁(LMT)$ </a> 还行 今天跌的不多 九月一直如此","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMT\">$洛克希德马丁(LMT)$ </a> 还行 今天跌的不多 九月一直如此","text":"$洛克希德马丁(LMT)$ 还行 今天跌的不多 九月一直如此","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec12a3422d56f2a360c2bb9d74a53b9","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348278139105312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347166622441688,"gmtCreate":1725786926388,"gmtModify":1725786930733,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好股票,就是有业绩和有影响力,贾老板的汽车公司,没有业绩只有影响力,就是宣传的影响力,我之前在这个股票上面 栽了一次,基本再也不敢动.。 觉得 芒格老爷子曾经说的 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有没有意义,一直持有","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056accff3fa060db441e7bdd3169f726","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346797375369616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346708695708024,"gmtCreate":1725674999536,"gmtModify":1725675001930,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"也可能是 周末 觉得未来不确定","listText":"也可能是 周末 觉得未来不确定","text":"也可能是 周末 觉得未来不确定","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346708695708024","repostId":"2465641167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2465641167","pubTimestamp":1725660180,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2465641167?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-07 06:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"非农失业率没惊吓,美联储重要高官鸽声嘹亮,为何美股周五大跌?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2465641167","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“新美联储通讯社”称非农无法指明9月降息幅度,美联储票委没有明确松口9月一定降息50个基点,或令市场有些失望。还有分析称,市场进入新范式,聚焦点从通胀转到增长,经济坏消息现在对股市不利。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>8月非农新增就业不及预期,前两个月数据下修,经历了近期股市巨震,市场如惊弓之鸟,任何缺点都会放大。此外,“新美联储通讯社”称非农无法指明9月降息幅度,美联储票委没有明确松口9月一定降息50个基点,或令市场有些失望。还有分析称,市场进入新范式,聚焦点从通胀转到增长,经济坏消息现在对股市不利。</p></blockquote><p>9月6日周五,在美债收益率因8月美国非农就业不佳而“符合预期地”持续下挫之际,美股市场再度展现了“难以捉摸”的一面,本来由于降息预期提升而高开,随后马上大幅走低。</p><p><strong>午盘后,美股主要指数仍不断刷新日低</strong>,与AI风潮紧密相连的科技与芯片股领跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数大盘跌近百点或跌1.8%,蓝筹股汇聚的道指跌超430点或跌1%,科技股居多的纳指也跌450点或跌2.6%,对经济周期高度敏感的罗素2000小盘股指数跌2%,“恐慌指数”VIX涨超17%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/158d9763848d6ac270dc2568fb6300ff\" tg-width=\"311\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p>本周美国发布了多份不如人意、显示劳动力市场持续降温的经济数据,以及仍深陷萎缩的制造业和“仅”温和扩张的服务业数据,这令投资者在增长担忧加剧时抛售风险资产并买入避险美债。标普大盘本周累跌超4%,道指跌近3%,迈向2023年3月来的一年半最糟,纳指累跌近6%,美债收益率齐创一年多新低。</p><p>目前,美股主要指数均位于8月份上中旬以来的约四周低位,标普大盘和罗素小盘股指本周连跌四日,也就是说,自周二长周末归来开启9月份首个交易周内每天都在下挫。分析普遍认为,最新的非农就业报告让人疑虑重重,对AI需求的担忧也打击科技行业,令股市周五进一步恶化。</p><h2 id=\"id_4119847216\">市场聚焦8月非农就业“不好”的成分,加剧经济放缓担忧,打压风险偏好</h2><p>周五美国股跌债涨的主要原因便是美国8月非农就业不佳。虽然这份数据整体来看可谓“好坏参半”,没有释放完全悲观的信号,但也确凿地透露出劳动力市场降温快于预期的趋势,加剧经济放缓担忧,进而打压投资者的风险情绪。</p><p>具体来说,虽然8月份新增就业14.2万与最近几个月的平均就业增长速度一致,但与过去12个月平均增超20万人相比显著放缓,而且6月和7月前值合计下修8.6万,不仅营造出劳动力市场比预想更早失去动力的紧张氛围,也令过去三个月新增就业均值跌至2020年中旬以来最低。</p><p>而在此之前,本周发布的“小非农”ADP私营领域就业和JOLTS职位空缺数已经双双降至三年半新低,Challenger裁员统计更差,对经济的担忧持续撼动市场、打压人气。再添加一份疲软的劳动力数据只会引发人们对美国经济健康状况的更深度担忧,足以引发股市恐慌抛售。</p><p>因此,尽管8月非农失业率符合预期小幅降至4.2%,打破了连升四个月的走势,薪资同比增长3.8%脱离前值的两年多低位,都属于“好消息”,<strong>但市场参与者更多聚焦在数据不好的一面。</strong></p><p>例如:反映“就业不足率”的U6失业率升至7.9%创2021年10月来最高;8月就业增长支柱教育和医疗保健业的增幅创2022年以来最小;25至54岁黄金年龄劳动者的就业参与率自3月份以来首次下降;过去三个月私营部门就业平均增加9.6万人,是新冠疫情爆发以来首次跌破10万等<strong>。</strong></p><p>美国劳工部前任首席经济学家Betsey Stevenson在接受媒体采访时表示:“目前美国的非农就业增长实际上只来自于三个领域:休闲和酒店业、医疗和教育服务业以及政府。我们没有看到商业和专业服务业出现太多增长,我认为这表明经济正在放缓。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1155000067\">有分析称,市场进入新范式,聚焦点从通胀转到增长,经济坏消息现在对股市不利</h2><p>还有分析称,<strong>周五市场紧张的背后原因是,股票和债券对经济指标的敏感度远高于过去</strong>——因为投资者知道“软着陆”前景对美国经济有多么重要的意义,所以市场情绪才会波动如此剧烈,经济数据中的任何微小变化都会被放大成为对衰退的担忧,或者担忧暂时缓解后的股市急速反弹。</p><p>上述分析认为,这表明我们正在进入一个新的市场范式,其中两大主题浮现,一是聚焦点转到经济增长而不是通胀,同时,在美联储即将降息的预期推动下,之前不受欢迎的股票击败市场明星。</p><p>正如施罗德首席投资官Johanna Kyrklund所言,六个月前美国经济衰退的风险为零,但现在的风险是,低收入家庭的疲软开始影响整个经济领域。而即使美联储开始降息,市场仍将对经济疲软的迹象保持高度敏感,因为衰退的风险仍将持续相当长一段时间:</p><blockquote><p>对经济疲软的关注也体现在股票和债券之间的联系发生变化上。当市场关注通胀时,经济方面的好消息通常对股市来说是坏消息,因为这意味着物价上涨的压力和美联储加息。</p><p>现在,经济方面的好消息对股市有利,因为它缓解了人们对经济增长的担忧,而且无论如何都预计会降息。反之亦然:经济方面的坏消息现在对股市不利。</p><p>因此,标普 500 指数与 10 年期美债收益率之间保持了一年的联系现在已发生逆转。股票和债券收益率隐约呈现出同涨同跌的趋势,而不是像以前那样朝相反的方向移动。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_696388401\">“新美联储通讯社”称非农无法指明9月降息幅度,美联储票委没有明确松口大幅降息</h2><p>此外,周五美股大跌的第二个原因,恐怕就在于最新非农就业数据和随后的多位美联储官员讲话,仍无法明确美联储9月降息的具体幅度,而仅仅能确保“降息一定会发生、为降息扫清了道路”。</p><p><strong>就连被誉为“新美联储通讯社”的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos都称,非农报告不明朗</strong>,美联储9月降息25个还是50个基点仍是未知数:</p><blockquote><p>“总体非农数据还没有坏到足以使市场基准预期变为降息50个基点,但考虑到修订后的数据,它还不足以令人信服地彻底打消对更大幅度降息的猜测。</p><p>最近几周,最大的疑问是数据体现的夏季冲击是暂时的(也许是飓风贝里尔抑制了招聘活动),还是经济整体放缓的证据。</p><p>(只能说,)今年夏季招聘活动放缓,美联储降息势在必行。”</p></blockquote><p>纵观多位美联储票委在非农就业发布后的言论,他们确实只透露9月肯定会降息,但对经济健康程度的肯定和多人提到的“谨慎行事”,似乎都与非农之后蹿升的市场对降息50个基点押注背道而驰,美联储“三把手”、纽约联储主席<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>暗示降息从传统的25个基点开始。</p><p>不少分析发现,作为鲍威尔坚定盟友的威廉姆斯强调美国经济仍然基础稳固,今年失业率可能稳定在4.25%左右,没有透露出更大幅度降息的紧迫感。</p><p><strong>就算提到“若合适将提倡前置化降息”的美联储理事沃勒也没有为9月便大幅降息50个基点松口</strong>,而是称经济“表现稳健”、持续增长的前景“良好”、劳动力市场“继续疲软但非恶化”,并预计降息将“谨慎进行”。</p><h2 id=\"id_2030083112\">交易员对9月降息规模的押注摇摆不定,华尔街也展开激烈辩论,或令股市缺乏方向</h2><p>所谓“前置化降息”(front load)指的是在预判经济形势恶化基础上,抢跑性质地率先激进降息,例如在降息初期先大幅降息,把经济稳定下来再改为更传统的每次25个基点降息。</p><p>非农就业发布后,市场确实提升了对今年美联储降息幅度的整体押注,但对9月份到底是降息25还是50个基点摇摆不定、莫衷一是,最终还是更传统的加息步伐战胜了更激进的预期,不过,市场认为11月份可能会降息50个基点,年底前共有约4.5次的“每次降息25个基点”。</p><p>有分析称,许多投资者原本认为8月非农将预示本月降息的幅度,结果数据既不好也不坏,显示就业增长明显放缓,但失业率几乎没有变化,这让交易员目前继续处于不确定状态,因此无法对股市提供助力,反而可能隐隐对不能降息50个基点感到失望。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>投资研究所的Scott Wren称,金融市场已将注意力转向美联储将放松多少政策以及经济放缓的速度,预计短期波动将继续。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>E*Trade部门的Chris Larkin也称,美国8月非农就业人口逊于预期,可能会提振投资者对美联储9月降息50个基点的预期,但距离FOMC政策会议还有一段时间、目前可能仍然没有定论。当前基本假设仍然是,偏谨慎的美联储9月将降息25个基点,市场可能会对“表明美国经济过度降温的后续数据”保持敏感。</p><p>华尔街正就8月非农和近期疲软数据能否有效支撑美联储决定9月降息50个基点展开激烈辩论。</p><p>美国高通胀吹哨人、前财长萨默斯称,非农就业疲软,让美联储更加接近在9月降息50个基点。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>资管的首席全球策略师David Kelly不赞成以更大幅度的降息来启动货币政策宽松周期:</p><blockquote><p>“我强烈认为首次降息应该只降息25个基点。如果美联储降息50个基点,会让每个人都(对经济的恶化程度)感到不安……出于心理原因,我认为他们慢慢降息要好得多。”</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">阿波罗全球管理</a>公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok认为,市场对9月份降息50个基点的预期反应过度,体现了对经济衰退的过度担忧,而8月非农报告表明衰退迹象并不明显,“失业率正在下降,没有必要大幅降息50个基点。”</p><p>Principal Asset Management 首席全球策略师 Seema Shah则称,对美联储来说,决策关键在于决定哪个风险更大:是降息50个基点会重新引发通胀压力,还是降息25个基点会带来衰退风险,但“总的来说,在通胀压力低迷的情况下,美联储没有理由不谨慎行事、前置化(大幅)降息。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1933553223\">“衰退论者”占上风,强化秋季经典股市走软,美债收益率曲线结束倒挂或暗示衰退</h2><p>至于周五或者本周美股大跌的其他原因,还有媒体的观点文章指出,9月份空头们似乎渴望在尚未出现的经济衰退之前抢跑,尽管多方数据仍支持软着陆的论调,但“衰退论者”的声音目前更为响亮、占据言论上风,反而会加剧过去四年来9月份和10月份“经典的股市疲软走势”。</p><p>唱衰者们的理由是,一方面,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>称9月不仅是一年中表现最弱的月份,而且9月下半月通常是标普500指数年内表现最差的两周交易期。同时,今年异常强劲的企业股票回购势头可能很快就会放缓,因为企业在下份财报发布前将进入数周的回购静默期,“缺乏活水”会拖累股市。</p><p>此外,美股指数,特别是过去一年的资本宠儿、热门科技股的估值依旧较高,“最大的问题是市场价格仍然昂贵”,本周的价格下跌并未对整体估值造成很大影响,让所有人都感到不舒服的“痛苦交易” 会导致市场进一步下跌,“这就是高估值和经济放缓带来的自然结果。”</p><p><strong>值得注意的是,周五两年期美债收益率一直低于10年期基债收益率,</strong>即关键的收益率曲线结束倒挂。</p><p>华尔街见闻曾提到,道琼斯市场数据显示,<strong>自2022年7月1日以来,还没出现过长期美债收益率在收盘时也高于短债收益率,</strong>一旦出现将结束有记录以来最长的收益率曲线倒挂期,截至本周四,该曲线已连续倒挂了545个交易日。</p><p>而分析也已指出,疲软的劳动力数据助长美联储降息押注,令美债收益率曲线短暂结束倒挂。但历史中,收益率曲线结束倒挂时经济开始出现问题,对股市也许不是全面利好:</p><blockquote><p>“有不少分析指出,虽然美债收益率曲线结束长期倒挂通常发生在美联储开始降息之际,由于美联储往往在经济遇到困难时才放松政策,因此,收益率曲线结束倒挂反而会加剧投资者对经济衰退的担忧,对股市来说也是个负面信号。”</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>非农失业率没惊吓,美联储重要高官鸽声嘹亮,为何美股周五大跌?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n非农失业率没惊吓,美联储重要高官鸽声嘹亮,为何美股周五大跌?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-07 06:03 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3727310><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>8月非农新增就业不及预期,前两个月数据下修,经历了近期股市巨震,市场如惊弓之鸟,任何缺点都会放大。此外,“新美联储通讯社”称非农无法指明9月降息幅度,美联储票委没有明确松口9月一定降息50个基点,或令市场有些失望。还有分析称,市场进入新范式,聚焦点从通胀转到增长,经济坏消息现在对股市不利。9月6日周五,在美债收益率因8月美国非农就业不佳而“符合预期地”持续下挫之际,美股市场再度展现了“难以捉摸”的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3727310\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3727310","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2465641167","content_text":"8月非农新增就业不及预期,前两个月数据下修,经历了近期股市巨震,市场如惊弓之鸟,任何缺点都会放大。此外,“新美联储通讯社”称非农无法指明9月降息幅度,美联储票委没有明确松口9月一定降息50个基点,或令市场有些失望。还有分析称,市场进入新范式,聚焦点从通胀转到增长,经济坏消息现在对股市不利。9月6日周五,在美债收益率因8月美国非农就业不佳而“符合预期地”持续下挫之际,美股市场再度展现了“难以捉摸”的一面,本来由于降息预期提升而高开,随后马上大幅走低。午盘后,美股主要指数仍不断刷新日低,与AI风潮紧密相连的科技与芯片股领跌。标普500指数大盘跌近百点或跌1.8%,蓝筹股汇聚的道指跌超430点或跌1%,科技股居多的纳指也跌450点或跌2.6%,对经济周期高度敏感的罗素2000小盘股指数跌2%,“恐慌指数”VIX涨超17%。本周美国发布了多份不如人意、显示劳动力市场持续降温的经济数据,以及仍深陷萎缩的制造业和“仅”温和扩张的服务业数据,这令投资者在增长担忧加剧时抛售风险资产并买入避险美债。标普大盘本周累跌超4%,道指跌近3%,迈向2023年3月来的一年半最糟,纳指累跌近6%,美债收益率齐创一年多新低。目前,美股主要指数均位于8月份上中旬以来的约四周低位,标普大盘和罗素小盘股指本周连跌四日,也就是说,自周二长周末归来开启9月份首个交易周内每天都在下挫。分析普遍认为,最新的非农就业报告让人疑虑重重,对AI需求的担忧也打击科技行业,令股市周五进一步恶化。市场聚焦8月非农就业“不好”的成分,加剧经济放缓担忧,打压风险偏好周五美国股跌债涨的主要原因便是美国8月非农就业不佳。虽然这份数据整体来看可谓“好坏参半”,没有释放完全悲观的信号,但也确凿地透露出劳动力市场降温快于预期的趋势,加剧经济放缓担忧,进而打压投资者的风险情绪。具体来说,虽然8月份新增就业14.2万与最近几个月的平均就业增长速度一致,但与过去12个月平均增超20万人相比显著放缓,而且6月和7月前值合计下修8.6万,不仅营造出劳动力市场比预想更早失去动力的紧张氛围,也令过去三个月新增就业均值跌至2020年中旬以来最低。而在此之前,本周发布的“小非农”ADP私营领域就业和JOLTS职位空缺数已经双双降至三年半新低,Challenger裁员统计更差,对经济的担忧持续撼动市场、打压人气。再添加一份疲软的劳动力数据只会引发人们对美国经济健康状况的更深度担忧,足以引发股市恐慌抛售。因此,尽管8月非农失业率符合预期小幅降至4.2%,打破了连升四个月的走势,薪资同比增长3.8%脱离前值的两年多低位,都属于“好消息”,但市场参与者更多聚焦在数据不好的一面。例如:反映“就业不足率”的U6失业率升至7.9%创2021年10月来最高;8月就业增长支柱教育和医疗保健业的增幅创2022年以来最小;25至54岁黄金年龄劳动者的就业参与率自3月份以来首次下降;过去三个月私营部门就业平均增加9.6万人,是新冠疫情爆发以来首次跌破10万等。美国劳工部前任首席经济学家Betsey Stevenson在接受媒体采访时表示:“目前美国的非农就业增长实际上只来自于三个领域:休闲和酒店业、医疗和教育服务业以及政府。我们没有看到商业和专业服务业出现太多增长,我认为这表明经济正在放缓。”有分析称,市场进入新范式,聚焦点从通胀转到增长,经济坏消息现在对股市不利还有分析称,周五市场紧张的背后原因是,股票和债券对经济指标的敏感度远高于过去——因为投资者知道“软着陆”前景对美国经济有多么重要的意义,所以市场情绪才会波动如此剧烈,经济数据中的任何微小变化都会被放大成为对衰退的担忧,或者担忧暂时缓解后的股市急速反弹。上述分析认为,这表明我们正在进入一个新的市场范式,其中两大主题浮现,一是聚焦点转到经济增长而不是通胀,同时,在美联储即将降息的预期推动下,之前不受欢迎的股票击败市场明星。正如施罗德首席投资官Johanna Kyrklund所言,六个月前美国经济衰退的风险为零,但现在的风险是,低收入家庭的疲软开始影响整个经济领域。而即使美联储开始降息,市场仍将对经济疲软的迹象保持高度敏感,因为衰退的风险仍将持续相当长一段时间:对经济疲软的关注也体现在股票和债券之间的联系发生变化上。当市场关注通胀时,经济方面的好消息通常对股市来说是坏消息,因为这意味着物价上涨的压力和美联储加息。现在,经济方面的好消息对股市有利,因为它缓解了人们对经济增长的担忧,而且无论如何都预计会降息。反之亦然:经济方面的坏消息现在对股市不利。因此,标普 500 指数与 10 年期美债收益率之间保持了一年的联系现在已发生逆转。股票和债券收益率隐约呈现出同涨同跌的趋势,而不是像以前那样朝相反的方向移动。“新美联储通讯社”称非农无法指明9月降息幅度,美联储票委没有明确松口大幅降息此外,周五美股大跌的第二个原因,恐怕就在于最新非农就业数据和随后的多位美联储官员讲话,仍无法明确美联储9月降息的具体幅度,而仅仅能确保“降息一定会发生、为降息扫清了道路”。就连被誉为“新美联储通讯社”的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos都称,非农报告不明朗,美联储9月降息25个还是50个基点仍是未知数:“总体非农数据还没有坏到足以使市场基准预期变为降息50个基点,但考虑到修订后的数据,它还不足以令人信服地彻底打消对更大幅度降息的猜测。最近几周,最大的疑问是数据体现的夏季冲击是暂时的(也许是飓风贝里尔抑制了招聘活动),还是经济整体放缓的证据。(只能说,)今年夏季招聘活动放缓,美联储降息势在必行。”纵观多位美联储票委在非农就业发布后的言论,他们确实只透露9月肯定会降息,但对经济健康程度的肯定和多人提到的“谨慎行事”,似乎都与非农之后蹿升的市场对降息50个基点押注背道而驰,美联储“三把手”、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯暗示降息从传统的25个基点开始。不少分析发现,作为鲍威尔坚定盟友的威廉姆斯强调美国经济仍然基础稳固,今年失业率可能稳定在4.25%左右,没有透露出更大幅度降息的紧迫感。就算提到“若合适将提倡前置化降息”的美联储理事沃勒也没有为9月便大幅降息50个基点松口,而是称经济“表现稳健”、持续增长的前景“良好”、劳动力市场“继续疲软但非恶化”,并预计降息将“谨慎进行”。交易员对9月降息规模的押注摇摆不定,华尔街也展开激烈辩论,或令股市缺乏方向所谓“前置化降息”(front load)指的是在预判经济形势恶化基础上,抢跑性质地率先激进降息,例如在降息初期先大幅降息,把经济稳定下来再改为更传统的每次25个基点降息。非农就业发布后,市场确实提升了对今年美联储降息幅度的整体押注,但对9月份到底是降息25还是50个基点摇摆不定、莫衷一是,最终还是更传统的加息步伐战胜了更激进的预期,不过,市场认为11月份可能会降息50个基点,年底前共有约4.5次的“每次降息25个基点”。有分析称,许多投资者原本认为8月非农将预示本月降息的幅度,结果数据既不好也不坏,显示就业增长明显放缓,但失业率几乎没有变化,这让交易员目前继续处于不确定状态,因此无法对股市提供助力,反而可能隐隐对不能降息50个基点感到失望。富国银行投资研究所的Scott Wren称,金融市场已将注意力转向美联储将放松多少政策以及经济放缓的速度,预计短期波动将继续。摩根士丹利E*Trade部门的Chris Larkin也称,美国8月非农就业人口逊于预期,可能会提振投资者对美联储9月降息50个基点的预期,但距离FOMC政策会议还有一段时间、目前可能仍然没有定论。当前基本假设仍然是,偏谨慎的美联储9月将降息25个基点,市场可能会对“表明美国经济过度降温的后续数据”保持敏感。华尔街正就8月非农和近期疲软数据能否有效支撑美联储决定9月降息50个基点展开激烈辩论。美国高通胀吹哨人、前财长萨默斯称,非农就业疲软,让美联储更加接近在9月降息50个基点。但摩根大通资管的首席全球策略师David Kelly不赞成以更大幅度的降息来启动货币政策宽松周期:“我强烈认为首次降息应该只降息25个基点。如果美联储降息50个基点,会让每个人都(对经济的恶化程度)感到不安……出于心理原因,我认为他们慢慢降息要好得多。”阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok认为,市场对9月份降息50个基点的预期反应过度,体现了对经济衰退的过度担忧,而8月非农报告表明衰退迹象并不明显,“失业率正在下降,没有必要大幅降息50个基点。”Principal Asset Management 首席全球策略师 Seema Shah则称,对美联储来说,决策关键在于决定哪个风险更大:是降息50个基点会重新引发通胀压力,还是降息25个基点会带来衰退风险,但“总的来说,在通胀压力低迷的情况下,美联储没有理由不谨慎行事、前置化(大幅)降息。”“衰退论者”占上风,强化秋季经典股市走软,美债收益率曲线结束倒挂或暗示衰退至于周五或者本周美股大跌的其他原因,还有媒体的观点文章指出,9月份空头们似乎渴望在尚未出现的经济衰退之前抢跑,尽管多方数据仍支持软着陆的论调,但“衰退论者”的声音目前更为响亮、占据言论上风,反而会加剧过去四年来9月份和10月份“经典的股市疲软走势”。唱衰者们的理由是,一方面,高盛称9月不仅是一年中表现最弱的月份,而且9月下半月通常是标普500指数年内表现最差的两周交易期。同时,今年异常强劲的企业股票回购势头可能很快就会放缓,因为企业在下份财报发布前将进入数周的回购静默期,“缺乏活水”会拖累股市。此外,美股指数,特别是过去一年的资本宠儿、热门科技股的估值依旧较高,“最大的问题是市场价格仍然昂贵”,本周的价格下跌并未对整体估值造成很大影响,让所有人都感到不舒服的“痛苦交易” 会导致市场进一步下跌,“这就是高估值和经济放缓带来的自然结果。”值得注意的是,周五两年期美债收益率一直低于10年期基债收益率,即关键的收益率曲线结束倒挂。华尔街见闻曾提到,道琼斯市场数据显示,自2022年7月1日以来,还没出现过长期美债收益率在收盘时也高于短债收益率,一旦出现将结束有记录以来最长的收益率曲线倒挂期,截至本周四,该曲线已连续倒挂了545个交易日。而分析也已指出,疲软的劳动力数据助长美联储降息押注,令美债收益率曲线短暂结束倒挂。但历史中,收益率曲线结束倒挂时经济开始出现问题,对股市也许不是全面利好:“有不少分析指出,虽然美债收益率曲线结束长期倒挂通常发生在美联储开始降息之际,由于美联储往往在经济遇到困难时才放松政策,因此,收益率曲线结束倒挂反而会加剧投资者对经济衰退的担忧,对股市来说也是个负面信号。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346417329344784,"gmtCreate":1725611818844,"gmtModify":1725611822112,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"其实怎么支付 就是钱如何分配的方式,对于阿里和腾讯都对于 自己的护城河精心保护,我认为两家公司的和解,会继续扩大产业发展和共生,对于消费者是非常好 我们在未来的投资中也要看好国家对于公司的需求,这两家公司都承接着大量公共服务行业,已经成为老百姓离不开的工具,所以如果有足够的闲钱,可以坚定持有","listText":"其实怎么支付 就是钱如何分配的方式,对于阿里和腾讯都对于 自己的护城河精心保护,我认为两家公司的和解,会继续扩大产业发展和共生,对于消费者是非常好 我们在未来的投资中也要看好国家对于公司的需求,这两家公司都承接着大量公共服务行业,已经成为老百姓离不开的工具,所以如果有足够的闲钱,可以坚定持有","text":"其实怎么支付 就是钱如何分配的方式,对于阿里和腾讯都对于 自己的护城河精心保护,我认为两家公司的和解,会继续扩大产业发展和共生,对于消费者是非常好 我们在未来的投资中也要看好国家对于公司的需求,这两家公司都承接着大量公共服务行业,已经成为老百姓离不开的工具,所以如果有足够的闲钱,可以坚定持有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346417329344784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346417020895552,"gmtCreate":1725611632507,"gmtModify":1725611635762,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作为一名优秀的投资者要知道 节奏,逢高减仓,封底缓慢买入,其实这种超级大公司,股票已经不是普通机构可以左右的,而是世界对于这些行业的需求产生的买卖关系,短期的下跌可能是投资者急于确定收益,那么这个时候 如果有急用钱的情况,就赶紧清仓,毕竟较大波动会影响人们的判断。。 所以对于未来我们要以开放的角度分析问题","listText":"作为一名优秀的投资者要知道 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 对于英特尔 我觉得未来的ultra9 200v芯片还是很好的,这一次积极对公司的战略做了改变,停止扩展,积极赔付客户,都为投资者指明了方向","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 对于英特尔 我觉得未来的ultra9 200v芯片还是很好的,这一次积极对公司的战略做了改变,停止扩展,积极赔付客户,都为投资者指明了方向","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 对于英特尔 我觉得未来的ultra9 200v芯片还是很好的,这一次积极对公司的战略做了改变,停止扩展,积极赔付客户,都为投资者指明了方向","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350595089584400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4137805785318060","authorId":"4137805785318060","name":"mai0123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8ecb129eafe5f5d2a070130124900ec","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4137805785318060","idStr":"4137805785318060"},"content":"等200v系列看看实力吧,Intel再不重视服务器市场和ai市场才是真的怪","text":"等200v系列看看实力吧,Intel再不重视服务器市场和ai市场才是真的怪","html":"等200v系列看看实力吧,Intel再不重视服务器市场和ai市场才是真的怪"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331887860002904,"gmtCreate":1722034202746,"gmtModify":1722043396772,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对于英伟达 我的看法是 等待,毕竟CEO都在减持 说明这个阶段 股价太高了","listText":"对于英伟达 我的看法是 等待,毕竟CEO都在减持 说明这个阶段 股价太高了","text":"对于英伟达 我的看法是 等待,毕竟CEO都在减持 说明这个阶段 股价太高了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331887860002904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513134411622159","authorId":"3513134411622159","name":"财运小七","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91e1cb8e5ff26ee04fa9a9ae5f1314c5","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3513134411622159","idStr":"3513134411622159"},"content":"9月初再来看你这条评论","text":"9月初再来看你这条评论","html":"9月初再来看你这条评论"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346417020895552,"gmtCreate":1725611632507,"gmtModify":1725611635762,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作为一名优秀的投资者要知道 节奏,逢高减仓,封底缓慢买入,其实这种超级大公司,股票已经不是普通机构可以左右的,而是世界对于这些行业的需求产生的买卖关系,短期的下跌可能是投资者急于确定收益,那么这个时候 如果有急用钱的情况,就赶紧清仓,毕竟较大波动会影响人们的判断。。 所以对于未来我们要以开放的角度分析问题","listText":"作为一名优秀的投资者要知道 节奏,逢高减仓,封底缓慢买入,其实这种超级大公司,股票已经不是普通机构可以左右的,而是世界对于这些行业的需求产生的买卖关系,短期的下跌可能是投资者急于确定收益,那么这个时候 如果有急用钱的情况,就赶紧清仓,毕竟较大波动会影响人们的判断。。 所以对于未来我们要以开放的角度分析问题","text":"作为一名优秀的投资者要知道 节奏,逢高减仓,封底缓慢买入,其实这种超级大公司,股票已经不是普通机构可以左右的,而是世界对于这些行业的需求产生的买卖关系,短期的下跌可能是投资者急于确定收益,那么这个时候 如果有急用钱的情况,就赶紧清仓,毕竟较大波动会影响人们的判断。。 所以对于未来我们要以开放的角度分析问题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346417020895552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347166622441688,"gmtCreate":1725786926388,"gmtModify":1725786930733,"author":{"id":"4184240728605922","authorId":"4184240728605922","name":"ronghao","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4184240728605922","idStr":"4184240728605922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好股票,就是有业绩和有影响力,贾老板的汽车公司,没有业绩只有影响力,就是宣传的影响力,我之前在这个股票上面 栽了一次,基本再也不敢动.。 觉得 芒格老爷子曾经说的 如果你知道在哪里会死,就永远不要去那个地方,要敬畏自己的盲区,如果赚钱了,那当然好,但是假如你这次失败了,可能大量本金就套在里面,所以我的看法是先深入了解这家公司的情况,再做出判断","listText":"好股票,就是有业绩和有影响力,贾老板的汽车公司,没有业绩只有影响力,就是宣传的影响力,我之前在这个股票上面 栽了一次,基本再也不敢动.。 觉得 芒格老爷子曾经说的 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