PIBCBM的个人主页 - 老虎社区

PIBCBM

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：北京

19关注

1粉丝

0主题

0勋章

07-12

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 再跌狠点，速度速度速度，跌跌跌

06-16

拉倒吧。。。。不信华为

抱歉，原内容已删除

10-29

脑子不用可以火化了，**东西

10-29

笑死我了😆你是真的无知

07-16

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

$TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT$ 看空做空

06-21

$NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT$ 真不容易

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4177723904051032","uuid":"4177723904051032","gmtCreate":1714649870612,"gmtModify":1714745072796,"name":"PIBCBM","pinyin":"pibcbm","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":19,"tweetSize":6,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":22,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.26","exceedPercentage":"93.61%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.19","exceedPercentage":"80.86%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.05.10","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.05.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":"北京","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":9,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":365184578191464,"gmtCreate":1730166409650,"gmtModify":1730166411548,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4177723904051032","idStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"脑子不用可以火化了，**东西","listText":"脑子不用可以火化了，**东西","text":"脑子不用可以火化了，**东西","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365184578191464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365047088324736,"gmtCreate":1730166366351,"gmtModify":1730166452459,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4177723904051032","idStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"笑死我了😆你是真的无知","listText":"笑死我了😆你是真的无知","text":"笑死我了😆你是真的无知","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365047088324736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328126326231144,"gmtCreate":1721138949456,"gmtModify":1721139775776,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4177723904051032","idStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp; 看空做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp; 看空做空","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ $TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT$ 看空做空","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b8fb24431888027e40328e964bcb370","width":"364","height":"572"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328126326231144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326516562071672,"gmtCreate":1720717491355,"gmtModify":1720717535738,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4177723904051032","idStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp; 再跌狠点，速度速度速度，跌跌跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp; 再跌狠点，速度速度速度，跌跌跌","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 再跌狠点，速度速度速度，跌跌跌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0f40103dc51f647cff232de2a1527c","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326516562071672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319029044482144,"gmtCreate":1718901567181,"gmtModify":1718902009337,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4177723904051032","idStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT$</a> 真不容易","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT$</a> 真不容易","text":"$NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT$ 真不容易","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f922bbf21bf60fe2f281a13d46ad85f9","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319029044482144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317399844864304,"gmtCreate":1718529248397,"gmtModify":1718529346725,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4177723904051032","idStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拉倒吧。。。。不信华为","listText":"拉倒吧。。。。不信华为","text":"拉倒吧。。。。不信华为","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317399844864304","repostId":"2443291496","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2443291496","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1718497818,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2443291496?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-16 08:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"别只盯苹果，这个也是大机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2443291496","media":"格隆汇","summary":"重点关注下周五揭幕","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>重点关注下周五揭幕</p></blockquote><p>一个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>WWDC，让整个手机产业火爆了。</p><p>不仅苹果自己的股价连续大涨并创出新高，把全球市值第一个宝座重新拿了回来，还不出意外地带火了国内的苹果产业链。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13c362aa132a31d40a74a32d1866637c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>尽管市场对于苹果AI手机的各种争议不断，但毫无疑问的是AI手机已经呼啸而来。加上前不久<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>Build大会上的AI PC，甚至可以说，新的消费电子周期大幕正式开启。</p><p>这其中，充满着很多新的机会。</p><p>微软、苹果两家全球市值最大的公司已经向我们展示了其中巨大的商业机会，那属于我们中国自己的机会呢？</p><p><strong>01 路径复制</strong></p><p>在PC和智能手机时代，中国都遵循着映射美丽国的路径。</p><p>简单地说，<strong>那边负责研发和创新，我们负责生产和供应链，最后在强大的成本优势下，把价格打到平民化，使得一项技术或产品能够迅速普及。</strong></p><p>这是“Made in China”最大的价值所在。</p><p>虽然这个模式在最近几年发生了一些变化，但总体上并没有太大变化。因为中国的消费电子供应链依然是全球最大的，产能、完善度都是全球第一。西方简单地说避开中国，并不可行。</p><p>所以在AI时代，中国也会在AI终端上有自己的作为。但是，如果只是简单地做生产，价值量始终有限。</p><p>在新一轮的AI终端上，哪些公司可以最大限度地吃到发展红利？</p><p>还是以苹果为例，芯片自己设计，操作系统自己开发，两大最核心的科技都掌握在自己手里，完全不担心什么被卡脖子的问题，也完全有足够的能力提供好的产品和用户体验。</p><p>有了这些杀手锏，商业上的成功就是水到渠成，信手拈来。</p><p>在过去40年，IT硬件行业一直强调分工、组装、产业链共赢，但是这种分工的结果有点尴尬。熟悉PC历史的人应该知道，40多年，价值量最高的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>，但因为分工，价值量从整机厂让渡到芯片厂和软件厂，即IBM的价值量，最终严重不敌Intel和微软。</p><p>但现在似乎正在扭转，<strong>谁拥抱核心技术闭环，谁就更有竞争力，</strong>即使不是全包，核心的零部件和技术都应该在自己手里。尤其是对于硬件厂商来说，价值不想被边缘化，不想沦为低价值的组装厂，大概也就只剩下效仿苹果这条路了。</p><p>而国内最有能力做到这些的，会是谁？</p><p>其实答案有且仅有一个，那就是华为。因为华为的产业链最为完善，从操作系统（鸿蒙、盘古LLM）、整机（华为PC、平板、手机、手表等）、算力（麒麟芯片），都有。其他的厂商，联想、小米、OV，都只是组装厂。</p><p>实际上，我们已经看到像微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>这些拥有全球最好AI技术的公司，是如何撬动资本神经的，也可以看到苹果即使AI技术有点落后，但鉴于它在智能手机的完整生态护城河，以及强劲的盈利能力、现金流能力，依然能够获得资本的追捧。</p><p>一个开发者大会，便可以点燃资本的火焰。</p><p>幸运的是，这个火焰可能很快会发生在中国。</p><p><strong>6月21日-23日，华为将在东莞松山湖举办开发者大会，</strong>这可能是今天国内最值得期待的科技大会。据悉，盘古大模型5.0与HarmonyOS NEXT鸿蒙星河版将首次同台亮相。</p><p>不过市场最为关注的，是华为在AI终端产品上会拿出什么超预期的东西，其中AI PC和AI手机将会成为重磅戏。</p><p><strong>02 投资机会在哪里？</strong></p><p>相关的资本炒作逻辑，其实微软大会和苹果大会已经演绎过一次，主要是换机潮的加快和单机ASP的提升，市场也已经认可这个逻辑。剩下的工作，就只是找到对应标的。</p><p>如果省事，直接投资对应的公司即可，比如微软和苹果，这些都是具备良好基本面和长期增长价值的公司。如果继续深挖，对应的产业链公司，尤其是估值尚未被疯炒过的公司，也是很好的选项。</p><p>回归到国内，华为并非上市公司，所以不能像微软或者苹果那样直接买，但对应的华为产业链还是有许多选择的。</p><p>这里简单总结一下几个比较好的产业链方向：</p><p>第一，<strong>是散热。</strong>因为AI手机算力提升，对散热的要求会比传统的智能手机高很多，所以散热器件，且已经进入大型手机厂供应链的公司，特别是进入华为供应链的公司，是非常值得关注的公司。</p><p>第二，是华为手机的<strong>代工厂商</strong>，如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300735\">光弘科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">立讯精密</a>。</p><p>第三，是其他的<strong>配件厂商</strong>，如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002241\">歌尔股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002456\">欧菲光</a>。</p><p>这些公司在去年华为手机回归的时候，股价的上涨幅度非常不错，对华为手机的反弹非常高，证明逻辑是走得通的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5d80e44ca6f33971974d661a3438a6\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbf90d0f5823976495860bcd7beffdd\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"556\"/></p><p>而且，经过一段时间的调整，目前股价也没有回到去年的高位，只要这一次的华为开发者大会有利好消息刺激，大概率是可以再炒一轮。</p><p>不过，需要指出的是，在去年华为手机回归疯涨之后，又有过一轮非常大的跌幅，说明短线的资金炒作非常大，这是目前A股调性决定的，所以这一次如果大涨，短线获利资金依然有机会重复这种走势。</p><p><strong>对于投资者而言，如果获利，需要考虑是否有必要及时了结，锁定利润。</strong></p><p>这样说，并非鼓励大家追涨杀跌，因为这样做想长期获利，难度是很大的，只不过目前国内的炒作风格如此，投资者需要考虑去适应。</p><h3 id=\"id_104379275\">03 隐藏的风险</h3><p>关于华为消费电子产业链，有一个隐藏的风险需要重点提及一下。</p><p>这个风险就是<strong>算力</strong>。</p><p>自从被美国制裁之后，算力一直都是困扰国内科技大行的核心问题，华为也不例外。虽然华为在这方面算是国内最好的公司，但依然面临很大的压力。</p><p>去年华为手机王者归来的时候，曾经引发过一次<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>大兴奋，大家都觉得华为要重新崛起了。但实事求是地说，华为手机芯片的算力应该还是落后于苹果的，而且这种差距有可能还会进一步拉大。尤其是在AI大模型方面，算力是非常重要的一环，算力的缺乏，会影响模型以及后续的AI应用能力。</p><p><strong>不过，国情有别，且国内已经形成了比较完善的产业链，有能力自成一派。更重要的是，在国内的资本市场上，也只有华为概念可以炒了。</strong>所以，国外可以炒苹果、炒微软、炒<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，但国内最好的映射，依然是华为，资金也会去追逐这个概念。</p><p>在这个问题没有得到根本解决之前，华为产业链的股价走势，会呈现高低震荡的格局，上涨的时候很急，回调的时候也可以很剧烈。如果美国那边再出什么制裁，股价的跌幅同样会很剧烈。</p><p>最近一段时间，传出苹果手机的国内销量又可以了，原因也在于此。</p><p>从世界范围内说，这是华为手机竞争力最大的隐忧，在国内大可以说没有对手，但全球范围内呢？华为手机能够敌得过搭载了GPT-4O、谷歌Gemini的苹果手机，以及其他像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>手机吗？</p><p>我想很多人都没有答案。</p><p><strong>因此，在计算华为手机的销量，以及产业链的财务模型时，需要更多地考虑国内市场，全球市场则应该谨慎而保守地做估算。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_2314540661\">04 结语</h3><p>作为消费电子最新也可能是最大的换机潮，AI加持的硬件前景无限，会催生一轮又一轮的投资热潮。</p><p>这是已经低迷多时的消费电子产业，是大利好，市场也已经摩拳擦掌。更重要的是，我们正处在这个换机潮的早期，机会无限。</p><p>可以预见的是，<strong>只要有利好的消息出现，不管是发布新机，还是销量增长的高频数据，都可以刺激一波股价上涨，</strong>投资者只要好好跟踪和享受这个趋势就可以。</p><p>不过，需要提示的一点，那就是前文提及的隐藏风险，以及A股目前的快进快出的大A风格。而且，资金很可能提前布局，真的等到大会开的时候，反而有可能趁利好出逃。</p><p>在美股，事前可以预热，出来之后如果不错，还可以再炒一波。但在大A，事前照样可以预热，但事后未必跟美股风格。</p><p>因此，还是那句话，如果事前布局，真的大涨之后，需要考虑及时获利。</p><p><strong>不贪心，方得始终。</strong></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>别只盯苹果，这个也是大机会</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n别只盯苹果，这个也是大机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-16 08:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/793200><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>重点关注下周五揭幕一个苹果WWDC，让整个手机产业火爆了。不仅苹果自己的股价连续大涨并创出新高，把全球市值第一个宝座重新拿了回来，还不出意外地带火了国内的苹果产业链。尽管市场对于苹果AI手机的各种争议不断，但毫无疑问的是AI手机已经呼啸而来。加上前不久微软Build大会上的AI PC，甚至可以说，新的消费电子周期大幕正式开启。这其中，充满着很多新的机会。微软、苹果两家全球市值最大的公司已经向我们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/793200\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effca5146b27af57491296f3297b5a22","relate_stocks":{"300735":"光弘科技","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU1328615791.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ALL CHINA EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00B5MMRT66.SGD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK0121":"传感器","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","BK0072":"苹果","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4576":"AR","BK0028":"国家队","BK0109":"智能穿戴","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK0108":"虚拟现实","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0456855351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Global Equity A (acc) SGD","BK0026":"智能家居","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","002456":"欧菲光","AAPL":"苹果","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","002241":"歌尔股份","BK4581":"高盛持仓","002475":"立讯精密","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","SGXZ81163826.USD":"UNITED CHINA A-SHARES INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0196":"行业龙头","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/793200","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2443291496","content_text":"重点关注下周五揭幕一个苹果WWDC，让整个手机产业火爆了。不仅苹果自己的股价连续大涨并创出新高，把全球市值第一个宝座重新拿了回来，还不出意外地带火了国内的苹果产业链。尽管市场对于苹果AI手机的各种争议不断，但毫无疑问的是AI手机已经呼啸而来。加上前不久微软Build大会上的AI PC，甚至可以说，新的消费电子周期大幕正式开启。这其中，充满着很多新的机会。微软、苹果两家全球市值最大的公司已经向我们展示了其中巨大的商业机会，那属于我们中国自己的机会呢？01 路径复制在PC和智能手机时代，中国都遵循着映射美丽国的路径。简单地说，那边负责研发和创新，我们负责生产和供应链，最后在强大的成本优势下，把价格打到平民化，使得一项技术或产品能够迅速普及。这是“Made in China”最大的价值所在。虽然这个模式在最近几年发生了一些变化，但总体上并没有太大变化。因为中国的消费电子供应链依然是全球最大的，产能、完善度都是全球第一。西方简单地说避开中国，并不可行。所以在AI时代，中国也会在AI终端上有自己的作为。但是，如果只是简单地做生产，价值量始终有限。在新一轮的AI终端上，哪些公司可以最大限度地吃到发展红利？还是以苹果为例，芯片自己设计，操作系统自己开发，两大最核心的科技都掌握在自己手里，完全不担心什么被卡脖子的问题，也完全有足够的能力提供好的产品和用户体验。有了这些杀手锏，商业上的成功就是水到渠成，信手拈来。在过去40年，IT硬件行业一直强调分工、组装、产业链共赢，但是这种分工的结果有点尴尬。熟悉PC历史的人应该知道，40多年，价值量最高的是IBM，但因为分工，价值量从整机厂让渡到芯片厂和软件厂，即IBM的价值量，最终严重不敌Intel和微软。但现在似乎正在扭转，谁拥抱核心技术闭环，谁就更有竞争力，即使不是全包，核心的零部件和技术都应该在自己手里。尤其是对于硬件厂商来说，价值不想被边缘化，不想沦为低价值的组装厂，大概也就只剩下效仿苹果这条路了。而国内最有能力做到这些的，会是谁？其实答案有且仅有一个，那就是华为。因为华为的产业链最为完善，从操作系统（鸿蒙、盘古LLM）、整机（华为PC、平板、手机、手表等）、算力（麒麟芯片），都有。其他的厂商，联想、小米、OV，都只是组装厂。实际上，我们已经看到像微软、谷歌这些拥有全球最好AI技术的公司，是如何撬动资本神经的，也可以看到苹果即使AI技术有点落后，但鉴于它在智能手机的完整生态护城河，以及强劲的盈利能力、现金流能力，依然能够获得资本的追捧。一个开发者大会，便可以点燃资本的火焰。幸运的是，这个火焰可能很快会发生在中国。6月21日-23日，华为将在东莞松山湖举办开发者大会，这可能是今天国内最值得期待的科技大会。据悉，盘古大模型5.0与HarmonyOS NEXT鸿蒙星河版将首次同台亮相。不过市场最为关注的，是华为在AI终端产品上会拿出什么超预期的东西，其中AI PC和AI手机将会成为重磅戏。02 投资机会在哪里？相关的资本炒作逻辑，其实微软大会和苹果大会已经演绎过一次，主要是换机潮的加快和单机ASP的提升，市场也已经认可这个逻辑。剩下的工作，就只是找到对应标的。如果省事，直接投资对应的公司即可，比如微软和苹果，这些都是具备良好基本面和长期增长价值的公司。如果继续深挖，对应的产业链公司，尤其是估值尚未被疯炒过的公司，也是很好的选项。回归到国内，华为并非上市公司，所以不能像微软或者苹果那样直接买，但对应的华为产业链还是有许多选择的。这里简单总结一下几个比较好的产业链方向：第一，是散热。因为AI手机算力提升，对散热的要求会比传统的智能手机高很多，所以散热器件，且已经进入大型手机厂供应链的公司，特别是进入华为供应链的公司，是非常值得关注的公司。第二，是华为手机的代工厂商，如光弘科技、立讯精密。第三，是其他的配件厂商，如歌尔股份、欧菲光。这些公司在去年华为手机回归的时候，股价的上涨幅度非常不错，对华为手机的反弹非常高，证明逻辑是走得通的。而且，经过一段时间的调整，目前股价也没有回到去年的高位，只要这一次的华为开发者大会有利好消息刺激，大概率是可以再炒一轮。不过，需要指出的是，在去年华为手机回归疯涨之后，又有过一轮非常大的跌幅，说明短线的资金炒作非常大，这是目前A股调性决定的，所以这一次如果大涨，短线获利资金依然有机会重复这种走势。对于投资者而言，如果获利，需要考虑是否有必要及时了结，锁定利润。这样说，并非鼓励大家追涨杀跌，因为这样做想长期获利，难度是很大的，只不过目前国内的炒作风格如此，投资者需要考虑去适应。03 隐藏的风险关于华为消费电子产业链，有一个隐藏的风险需要重点提及一下。这个风险就是算力。自从被美国制裁之后，算力一直都是困扰国内科技大行的核心问题，华为也不例外。虽然华为在这方面算是国内最好的公司，但依然面临很大的压力。去年华为手机王者归来的时候，曾经引发过一次全民大兴奋，大家都觉得华为要重新崛起了。但实事求是地说，华为手机芯片的算力应该还是落后于苹果的，而且这种差距有可能还会进一步拉大。尤其是在AI大模型方面，算力是非常重要的一环，算力的缺乏，会影响模型以及后续的AI应用能力。不过，国情有别，且国内已经形成了比较完善的产业链，有能力自成一派。更重要的是，在国内的资本市场上，也只有华为概念可以炒了。所以，国外可以炒苹果、炒微软、炒英伟达，但国内最好的映射，依然是华为，资金也会去追逐这个概念。在这个问题没有得到根本解决之前，华为产业链的股价走势，会呈现高低震荡的格局，上涨的时候很急，回调的时候也可以很剧烈。如果美国那边再出什么制裁，股价的跌幅同样会很剧烈。最近一段时间，传出苹果手机的国内销量又可以了，原因也在于此。从世界范围内说，这是华为手机竞争力最大的隐忧，在国内大可以说没有对手，但全球范围内呢？华为手机能够敌得过搭载了GPT-4O、谷歌Gemini的苹果手机，以及其他像三星手机吗？我想很多人都没有答案。因此，在计算华为手机的销量，以及产业链的财务模型时，需要更多地考虑国内市场，全球市场则应该谨慎而保守地做估算。04 结语作为消费电子最新也可能是最大的换机潮，AI加持的硬件前景无限，会催生一轮又一轮的投资热潮。这是已经低迷多时的消费电子产业，是大利好，市场也已经摩拳擦掌。更重要的是，我们正处在这个换机潮的早期，机会无限。可以预见的是，只要有利好的消息出现，不管是发布新机，还是销量增长的高频数据，都可以刺激一波股价上涨，投资者只要好好跟踪和享受这个趋势就可以。不过，需要提示的一点，那就是前文提及的隐藏风险，以及A股目前的快进快出的大A风格。而且，资金很可能提前布局，真的等到大会开的时候，反而有可能趁利好出逃。在美股，事前可以预热，出来之后如果不错，还可以再炒一波。但在大A，事前照样可以预热，但事后未必跟美股风格。因此，还是那句话，如果事前布局，真的大涨之后，需要考虑及时获利。不贪心，方得始终。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":326516562071672,"gmtCreate":1720717491355,"gmtModify":1720717535738,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4177723904051032","authorIdStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp; 再跌狠点，速度速度速度，跌跌跌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp; 再跌狠点，速度速度速度，跌跌跌","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 再跌狠点，速度速度速度，跌跌跌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c0f40103dc51f647cff232de2a1527c","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326516562071672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317399844864304,"gmtCreate":1718529248397,"gmtModify":1718529346725,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4177723904051032","authorIdStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拉倒吧。。。。不信华为","listText":"拉倒吧。。。。不信华为","text":"拉倒吧。。。。不信华为","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317399844864304","repostId":"2443291496","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365184578191464,"gmtCreate":1730166409650,"gmtModify":1730166411548,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4177723904051032","authorIdStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"脑子不用可以火化了，**东西","listText":"脑子不用可以火化了，**东西","text":"脑子不用可以火化了，**东西","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365184578191464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365047088324736,"gmtCreate":1730166366351,"gmtModify":1730166452459,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4177723904051032","authorIdStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"笑死我了😆你是真的无知","listText":"笑死我了😆你是真的无知","text":"笑死我了😆你是真的无知","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365047088324736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328126326231144,"gmtCreate":1721138949456,"gmtModify":1721139775776,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4177723904051032","authorIdStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp; 看空做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp; 看空做空","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ $TSLA 20240719 240.0 PUT$ 看空做空","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b8fb24431888027e40328e964bcb370","width":"364","height":"572"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328126326231144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319029044482144,"gmtCreate":1718901567181,"gmtModify":1718902009337,"author":{"id":"4177723904051032","authorId":"4177723904051032","name":"PIBCBM","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4177723904051032","authorIdStr":"4177723904051032"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT$</a> 真不容易","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT$</a> 真不容易","text":"$NVDA 20240628 134.0 PUT$ 真不容易","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f922bbf21bf60fe2f281a13d46ad85f9","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319029044482144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}