股圈赌圣的个人主页 - 老虎社区

股圈赌圣

股圈赌圣

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2022-05-04

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 今晚缩表正式开始会不会飞流直下三千尺

2022-05-03

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 今天赌涨还是赌跌啊

2022-05-06

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 我爆仓了应该要涨了吧[难过]

2022-05-05

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 梭哈抄底，赌就对了看什么盘子了止损今日目前最低位，止盈13150

2022-05-03

$Twitter(TWTR)$是不是马斯克收购之后我在推特喷人就不被封了

2022-06-16

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$市场没有大家想的那么糟糕

2022-05-04

最后宣布加25点就打脸了

美联储利率决议前瞻：加息的终点是重大焦点

2022-05-16

$Twitter(TWTR)$马斯克就是来收割散户的醒醒吧，他早就在币圈收割不知道多少次了，推特他肯定不会买的！

2022-05-10

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 这不就股灾么……

2022-05-05

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$现在就不要盼着能涨回去了，就盼着反弹大一点在往下跌的时候慢一点就不错了

2022-06-15

跌跌跌见识一下熔断

2022-07-15

$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$波动太大了，心脏受不了

2022-05-04

$NQ100指数2206(NQ2206)$ 亏光为止啊哈哈😄

2022-05-05

$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 最后又给大家打了一阵防疫针，不会加息75基点，我们经济不是大家想的那么糟糕！放心搞吧

2022-08-03

$WTI原油主连 2209(CLmain)$中国的期货是真有钱开盘就抢拉

2022-08-01

$WTI原油主连 2209(CLmain)$求国外的大佬快来中国做局！来收割哪群一点底线没有的机构

2022-08-01

$WTI原油主连 2209(CLmain)$国内大佬们，不让原油跌，有波动就往上拉，想割国内期货的韭菜

2022-08-01

$WTI原油主连 2209(CLmain)$国内期货又要开盘了，那群机构又要来原油搞破坏了

2022-07-29

$WTI原油主连 2209(CLmain)$你给点鲍威尔面子行不它在加息

2022-07-28

$WTI原油主连 2209(CLmain)$炼油厂缺少现在又没库存了，以后开车都不敢地板油了……

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2209(CLmain)$炼油厂缺少现在又没库存了，以后开车都不敢地板油了……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682204430","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682678440,"gmtCreate":1658992729481,"gmtModify":1658992729481,"author":{"id":"4114616701705550","authorId":"4114616701705550","name":"股圈赌圣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa683d2b8d846cf7c7f1b6fab758b8ae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2209(CLmain)$</a>不用看了，下一次数据又吊着你胃口了不上不下的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2209(CLmain)$</a>不用看了，下一次数据又吊着你胃口了不上不下的","text":"$WTI原油主连 2209(CLmain)$不用看了，下一次数据又吊着你胃口了不上不下的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682678440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686063281,"gmtCreate":1657893789546,"gmtModify":1704868661172,"author":{"id":"4114616701705550","authorId":"4114616701705550","name":"股圈赌圣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa683d2b8d846cf7c7f1b6fab758b8ae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$</a>波动太大了，心脏受不了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$</a>波动太大了，心脏受不了","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2209(NQmain)$波动太大了，心脏受不了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686063281","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":689990048,"gmtCreate":1655317025389,"gmtModify":1704861908613,"author":{"id":"4114616701705550","authorId":"4114616701705550","name":"股圈赌圣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa683d2b8d846cf7c7f1b6fab758b8ae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>市场没有大家想的那么糟糕","listText":"<a 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14:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储利率决议前瞻：加息的终点是重大焦点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161787838","media":"金十数据","summary":"鲍威尔关于一些话题的表态值得品......周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布利率决议，随后美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会。市场普遍预期FOMC将把联邦基金利率的目标区间上调50个基点至0.75%-1.","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>鲍威尔关于一些话题的表态值得品......</blockquote><p>周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布利率决议，随后美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会。市场普遍预期FOMC将把联邦基金利率的目标区间上调50个基点至0.75%-1.0%，这是自2000年5月以来的首次大幅加息，当时美联储以此明确戳破了互联网泡沫。与此同时，量化紧缩的进程也有望从本月开启。</p><p><b>关于加息路径的三大拷问</b></p><p>素有“美联储官媒”之称的华尔街日报刊文称，投资者将关注鲍威尔关于今年以后利率可能会上升到多高以对抗通胀的评论。加息路径将成为倍受市场关注的焦点之一。具体问题可能涉及到：<b>会有多少次50个基点的加息？75个基点的加息是可能的吗？加息的终点在哪？</b></p><p>此前，美联储官员们已多次暗示，将在5月会议上加息50个基点，6月会议预计也有同样幅度的加息，年内可能继续采取激进加息行动。从债券市场来看，<b>市场预计5、6、7月都有50个基点的加息。</b></p><p>当前，美联储5月加息50个基点的预期已被完全消化。事实上，市场对加息75个基点的可能性也进行了定价，<b>利率交易员预计6月会议上加息75个基点的可能性约为35%。</b>总体而言，市场预计美联储到年底将加息超过10次，但到2023年2月加息不到11次，届时美联储预计将停止紧缩周期并开始宽松政策。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b930349cfb677797d17dd8e3b3632712\" tg-width=\"1244\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>华尔街投行对5月加息75个基点的可能性也进行了讨论。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>的基本预测是美联储5月将加息50个基点，但其也指出，<b>加息75个基点的可能性在20%左右。</b>如果美联储对抗通胀的可信度遭到质疑，不排除更大幅度加息的可能性。布拉德曾建议一次性75个基点的加息，但并未得到其他官员的支持。</p><p>该行预计FOMC的利率前瞻性指导将表明，<b>联邦基金利率的“持续上升”将是适当的，预计鲍威尔传达尽快让基金利率回归中性的需要，以及基金利率进入“限制性”区间（通常被认为高于2.5%）的可能性很高。</b></p><p><b>与往常一样，问题在于，美联储的会议结果与这些预期相比，是偏鹰派还是鸽派，哪一方更有可能？</b></p><p>在渣打银行看来，最近几周对鹰派态度增强的大部分看法来自于美联储的语言转变，从需要将政策利率上调至中性水平，到可能需要进一步收紧至超过中性利率（尽管收紧幅度为多少以及如何收紧尚未确定）。</p><p>渣打银行全球G10外汇研究和北美宏观策略主管Steve Englande指出，迄今为止，FOMC的声明既没有说明中性水平是多少，也没有说明政策利率可能超过中性的风险和程度。<b>如果鲍威尔在新闻发布会上，提及中性利率水平预计正在上升或政策利率可能在很长一段时间内或大量超过中性的风险，那么这被视为强化鹰派立场。</b></p><p><b>缩表是金融市场的致命杀手?</b></p><p>谈到量化紧缩，美联储几乎肯定将在5月宣布缩减资产负债表的开始（QT），细节将与3月FOMC会议纪要中的计划密切相关：<b>每月缩表规模或达950亿美元，其中包括600亿美元的美国国债和350亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，可能会在三个月内分阶段实施。</b></p><p>毋庸置疑，缩表对金融市场来说意义重大。跨境资本（CrossBorder Capital）总经理Michael Howell发布的图表显示，标准普尔500指数的走势几乎与资产负债表的扩大和缩减一一对应。自今年年初以来，美联储已经进行了几次收回流动性的动作，而这些行动或多或少与股市陷入困境的开端相吻合：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e3aaea0fcc81d7113672d79d78c461\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>注意：推动华尔街的不是美联储资产负债表的规模，而是美联储净流动性的规模</p><p>另外，美联储缩表引起的风险还包括对抵押品的影响，或者对投资展期或再融资能力的影响。美联储在市场上留下的现金更少，抵押品就越稀缺。</p><p>激进的缩表意味着金融条件将急剧收紧，并且可能引发金融危机。分析师Authers 写道：</p><blockquote>“记住次贷崩溃。在更高利率到来之前，人们选择低利率的可调利率抵押贷款以迅速再融资。当借款人发现他们无法再融资，违约就开始了，危机随之而来。”</blockquote><p>通胀猛于虎，美联储还得再激进？</p><p>还有一件事值得关注，那就是<b>鲍威尔对通胀驱动因素的解释是否有转变的迹象，即他是否还认为通胀是持久的驱动因素。</b>若通胀压力的风险方向仍偏向上行，这可能导致鲍威尔坚守鹰派立场。</p><p>工资增长成为推升通胀的重要力量。华尔街日报指出，自美联储3月会议以来，经济数据表明，随着雇主继续推高工资和物价，通胀压力可能会更加持久。</p><p>资管公司Invesco首席全球市场策略师Kristina Hooper表示，通胀率大幅下降的情况不太可能发生。该行预计<b>到年底美国整体CPI仍将小幅高于5%</b>，美联储将在未来4-6个月内不顾一切地追赶收益率曲线。</p><p>在许多分析师看来，<b>美联储的加息幅度不足以抑制通胀。</b>贵金属经销商金拓Gary Wagner表示，将利率提高3%似乎极不可能大幅降低通胀压力并将通胀预期带回可接受的目标水平。<b>从历史数据上看，通货膨胀率过高的年份，也伴随着利率远远高于美联储3%至3.5%的目标利率。</b></p><p>桥水首席策略师Rebecca Patterson也表示，<b>要想压制如此顽固的通胀，美联储要更激进加息。</b>市场当前的估值，是基于未来三年通胀率回落到3%左右，这需要美联储大规模收紧货币政策。在美联储当前的货币政策下，是否能让通胀回到市场预计的这个水平是值得质疑的。</p><p><b>由于预计美联储激进加息将是“无用功”，对经济滞涨的担忧也随之而生。</b>尽管FOMC仍认为美国经济“炙手可热”，但增长放缓的迹象已经有所显露，这被视为美联储继续维持鹰派立场的阻碍。</p><p>眼下美联储无法控制的因素存在太多不确定性，包括新冠疫情和俄乌战争带来的经济溢出效应。FOMC可能会因此转向谨慎，放慢进一步的紧缩步伐。但更有可能的是，<b>FOMC希望在退缩之前看到更多证据。</b>渣打银行指出，如果FOMC坚持提高50个基点并宣布QT，但仅此而已，这可能会使市场出现短暂的缓解反弹。然而，要让反弹持续下去，美国经济数据需要出现明显转变，而这种转变尚未发生。</p><p>不过，如果鲍威尔表示，<b>市场正在充分定价美联储可能的政策，那么这将被市场参与者视为美联储无意进一步推高利率的信号。</b>但总的来说，美联储继续拓宽鹰派的边界似乎比转鸽更有可能。</p><p><b>各类资产将作何反应？</b></p><p>在俄乌危机和新冠疫情复苏对经济构成挑战的情况下，<b>对美联储将避免进一步突破鹰派界限的广泛预期似乎让</b><b>黄金</b><b>买家对守住数月来的支撑线抱有希望。</b>值得注意的是，美元指数保持在20年高点附近，维持在103.50不变，而标准普尔500指数期货从年度低点反弹了三天。</p><p>FXSTREET分析师指出，如果美联储的表现与市场普遍的预期相符，<b>金价可能会回升，并可能直接突破1880美元的心理关口，进而可能确认短期看涨轨迹。不过，任何反弹都有可能是暂时的，因此仍需要保持谨慎。</b>下行方面，黄金或重新测试9个月以来的支撑线，约为1855美元/盎司。若黄金空头成功攻克该点位，将进一步挑战1834美元附近。</p><p>周一10年美债收益率一度飙升至3%上方，随后有所回落，但当前债市看空情绪似乎已有所缓和。摩根大通美国国债客户调查显示，空头比例减少8个百分点，多头比例减少4个百分点，中性比例增加12个百分点。<b>净多头比例为2021年4月以来最高。</b>在活跃客户中，中性增加11个百分点、多头减少11个百分点，空头持平。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>首席跨资产策略师Andrew Sheets认为，在今年前三个月美国国债创下纪录最大跌幅后，<b>债券市场已经消化了美联储未来加息的大部分影响。</b>这使得债市估值变得更具吸引力，随着消费者逐步适应金融环境收紧，摩根士丹利对美国经济增长前景的乐观情绪减弱。</p><p>而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>投资管理公司（Pimco）在5月份的资产配置展望中却表示，债券市场将继续面临通货膨胀和各国央行收紧货币政策的压力，所以在经济周期当前阶段，股票是更好的押注对象。</p><p>美股继上周大跌后已连续两日反弹。根据Strategas Research Partners的技术和宏观研究团队，在标普500指数2022年已经走低13%之后，未来几个月有进一步下跌的危险。该机构以Chris Verrone为首的团队正在密切关注向3500-3700区域下跌的风险。该区间包含了标普500指数的200周移动均线，以及从2020年大流行病期间市场底部开始的整个涨幅的中点。</p><p>摩根士丹利的知名空头Mike Wilson呼应了这种悲观情绪，他预计标普500指数将至少跌至3800点，最低有可能跌至3460点，比周一收盘低接近700点。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储利率决议前瞻：加息的终点是重大焦点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-04 14:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93534><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>鲍威尔关于一些话题的表态值得品......周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布利率决议，随后美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会。市场普遍预期FOMC将把联邦基金利率的目标区间上调50个基点至0.75%-1.0%，这是自2000年5月以来的首次大幅加息，当时美联储以此明确戳破了互联网泡沫。与此同时，量化紧缩的进程也有望从本月开启。关于加息路径的三大拷问素有“美联储官媒”之称的华尔街日报刊文称，投资者将关注...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93534\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/93534","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161787838","content_text":"鲍威尔关于一些话题的表态值得品......周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布利率决议，随后美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会。市场普遍预期FOMC将把联邦基金利率的目标区间上调50个基点至0.75%-1.0%，这是自2000年5月以来的首次大幅加息，当时美联储以此明确戳破了互联网泡沫。与此同时，量化紧缩的进程也有望从本月开启。关于加息路径的三大拷问素有“美联储官媒”之称的华尔街日报刊文称，投资者将关注鲍威尔关于今年以后利率可能会上升到多高以对抗通胀的评论。加息路径将成为倍受市场关注的焦点之一。具体问题可能涉及到：会有多少次50个基点的加息？75个基点的加息是可能的吗？加息的终点在哪？此前，美联储官员们已多次暗示，将在5月会议上加息50个基点，6月会议预计也有同样幅度的加息，年内可能继续采取激进加息行动。从债券市场来看，市场预计5、6、7月都有50个基点的加息。当前，美联储5月加息50个基点的预期已被完全消化。事实上，市场对加息75个基点的可能性也进行了定价，利率交易员预计6月会议上加息75个基点的可能性约为35%。总体而言，市场预计美联储到年底将加息超过10次，但到2023年2月加息不到11次，届时美联储预计将停止紧缩周期并开始宽松政策。华尔街投行对5月加息75个基点的可能性也进行了讨论。摩根大通的基本预测是美联储5月将加息50个基点，但其也指出，加息75个基点的可能性在20%左右。如果美联储对抗通胀的可信度遭到质疑，不排除更大幅度加息的可能性。布拉德曾建议一次性75个基点的加息，但并未得到其他官员的支持。该行预计FOMC的利率前瞻性指导将表明，联邦基金利率的“持续上升”将是适当的，预计鲍威尔传达尽快让基金利率回归中性的需要，以及基金利率进入“限制性”区间（通常被认为高于2.5%）的可能性很高。与往常一样，问题在于，美联储的会议结果与这些预期相比，是偏鹰派还是鸽派，哪一方更有可能？在渣打银行看来，最近几周对鹰派态度增强的大部分看法来自于美联储的语言转变，从需要将政策利率上调至中性水平，到可能需要进一步收紧至超过中性利率（尽管收紧幅度为多少以及如何收紧尚未确定）。渣打银行全球G10外汇研究和北美宏观策略主管Steve Englande指出，迄今为止，FOMC的声明既没有说明中性水平是多少，也没有说明政策利率可能超过中性的风险和程度。如果鲍威尔在新闻发布会上，提及中性利率水平预计正在上升或政策利率可能在很长一段时间内或大量超过中性的风险，那么这被视为强化鹰派立场。缩表是金融市场的致命杀手?谈到量化紧缩，美联储几乎肯定将在5月宣布缩减资产负债表的开始（QT），细节将与3月FOMC会议纪要中的计划密切相关：每月缩表规模或达950亿美元，其中包括600亿美元的美国国债和350亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券，可能会在三个月内分阶段实施。毋庸置疑，缩表对金融市场来说意义重大。跨境资本（CrossBorder Capital）总经理Michael Howell发布的图表显示，标准普尔500指数的走势几乎与资产负债表的扩大和缩减一一对应。自今年年初以来，美联储已经进行了几次收回流动性的动作，而这些行动或多或少与股市陷入困境的开端相吻合：注意：推动华尔街的不是美联储资产负债表的规模，而是美联储净流动性的规模另外，美联储缩表引起的风险还包括对抵押品的影响，或者对投资展期或再融资能力的影响。美联储在市场上留下的现金更少，抵押品就越稀缺。激进的缩表意味着金融条件将急剧收紧，并且可能引发金融危机。分析师Authers 写道：“记住次贷崩溃。在更高利率到来之前，人们选择低利率的可调利率抵押贷款以迅速再融资。当借款人发现他们无法再融资，违约就开始了，危机随之而来。”通胀猛于虎，美联储还得再激进？还有一件事值得关注，那就是鲍威尔对通胀驱动因素的解释是否有转变的迹象，即他是否还认为通胀是持久的驱动因素。若通胀压力的风险方向仍偏向上行，这可能导致鲍威尔坚守鹰派立场。工资增长成为推升通胀的重要力量。华尔街日报指出，自美联储3月会议以来，经济数据表明，随着雇主继续推高工资和物价，通胀压力可能会更加持久。资管公司Invesco首席全球市场策略师Kristina Hooper表示，通胀率大幅下降的情况不太可能发生。该行预计到年底美国整体CPI仍将小幅高于5%，美联储将在未来4-6个月内不顾一切地追赶收益率曲线。在许多分析师看来，美联储的加息幅度不足以抑制通胀。贵金属经销商金拓Gary Wagner表示，将利率提高3%似乎极不可能大幅降低通胀压力并将通胀预期带回可接受的目标水平。从历史数据上看，通货膨胀率过高的年份，也伴随着利率远远高于美联储3%至3.5%的目标利率。桥水首席策略师Rebecca Patterson也表示，要想压制如此顽固的通胀，美联储要更激进加息。市场当前的估值，是基于未来三年通胀率回落到3%左右，这需要美联储大规模收紧货币政策。在美联储当前的货币政策下，是否能让通胀回到市场预计的这个水平是值得质疑的。由于预计美联储激进加息将是“无用功”，对经济滞涨的担忧也随之而生。尽管FOMC仍认为美国经济“炙手可热”，但增长放缓的迹象已经有所显露，这被视为美联储继续维持鹰派立场的阻碍。眼下美联储无法控制的因素存在太多不确定性，包括新冠疫情和俄乌战争带来的经济溢出效应。FOMC可能会因此转向谨慎，放慢进一步的紧缩步伐。但更有可能的是，FOMC希望在退缩之前看到更多证据。渣打银行指出，如果FOMC坚持提高50个基点并宣布QT，但仅此而已，这可能会使市场出现短暂的缓解反弹。然而，要让反弹持续下去，美国经济数据需要出现明显转变，而这种转变尚未发生。不过，如果鲍威尔表示，市场正在充分定价美联储可能的政策，那么这将被市场参与者视为美联储无意进一步推高利率的信号。但总的来说，美联储继续拓宽鹰派的边界似乎比转鸽更有可能。各类资产将作何反应？在俄乌危机和新冠疫情复苏对经济构成挑战的情况下，对美联储将避免进一步突破鹰派界限的广泛预期似乎让黄金买家对守住数月来的支撑线抱有希望。值得注意的是，美元指数保持在20年高点附近，维持在103.50不变，而标准普尔500指数期货从年度低点反弹了三天。FXSTREET分析师指出，如果美联储的表现与市场普遍的预期相符，金价可能会回升，并可能直接突破1880美元的心理关口，进而可能确认短期看涨轨迹。不过，任何反弹都有可能是暂时的，因此仍需要保持谨慎。下行方面，黄金或重新测试9个月以来的支撑线，约为1855美元/盎司。若黄金空头成功攻克该点位，将进一步挑战1834美元附近。周一10年美债收益率一度飙升至3%上方，随后有所回落，但当前债市看空情绪似乎已有所缓和。摩根大通美国国债客户调查显示，空头比例减少8个百分点，多头比例减少4个百分点，中性比例增加12个百分点。净多头比例为2021年4月以来最高。在活跃客户中，中性增加11个百分点、多头减少11个百分点，空头持平。摩根士丹利首席跨资产策略师Andrew Sheets认为，在今年前三个月美国国债创下纪录最大跌幅后，债券市场已经消化了美联储未来加息的大部分影响。这使得债市估值变得更具吸引力，随着消费者逐步适应金融环境收紧，摩根士丹利对美国经济增长前景的乐观情绪减弱。而太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）在5月份的资产配置展望中却表示，债券市场将继续面临通货膨胀和各国央行收紧货币政策的压力，所以在经济周期当前阶段，股票是更好的押注对象。美股继上周大跌后已连续两日反弹。根据Strategas Research Partners的技术和宏观研究团队，在标普500指数2022年已经走低13%之后，未来几个月有进一步下跌的危险。该机构以Chris Verrone为首的团队正在密切关注向3500-3700区域下跌的风险。该区间包含了标普500指数的200周移动均线，以及从2020年大流行病期间市场底部开始的整个涨幅的中点。摩根士丹利的知名空头Mike Wilson呼应了这种悲观情绪，他预计标普500指数将至少跌至3800点，最低有可能跌至3460点，比周一收盘低接近700点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615905130,"gmtCreate":1652709504721,"gmtModify":1652709504721,"author":{"id":"4114616701705550","authorId":"4114616701705550","name":"股圈赌圣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa683d2b8d846cf7c7f1b6fab758b8ae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a>这不就股灾么……","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 这不就股灾么……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612984639","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616864696,"gmtCreate":1651683262226,"gmtModify":1651683262226,"author":{"id":"4114616701705550","authorId":"4114616701705550","name":"股圈赌圣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa683d2b8d846cf7c7f1b6fab758b8ae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a>现在就不要盼着能涨回去了，就盼着反弹大一点在往下跌的时候慢一点就不错了","listText":"<a 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