lyzc的个人主页 - 老虎社区

lyzc

lyzc

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IP属地：北京

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05-18 00:01

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 注定要绿

05-16

$(02015)$ 做空，会跌倒90的

05-14

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 下来吧孩子

05-10

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 高位做空，让你闪崩

05-09

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 要开始跌了，尿性如此

05-07

说完立马跑

洪灏最新谈港股：本身基本面在修复，这一波行情应该还没走完

05-07

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 今天肯定跌，因为昨天我跑了

04-30

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 有人故意做空，能看得出来拉上去就砸

04-22

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 冲高回落就会跌的很惨

04-16

$恒生科技指数主连 2404(HTImain)$ 请叫你跳水冠军

04-16

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 看到3200了

04-16

所以今天大跌了

汇丰：六大理由看多港股！AI、价值股、出海企业、国企将表现出众

04-16

$纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$ 美股跌你跌，美股涨你跌

04-12

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 每次做空我就加仓，刺激吗

04-11

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 是不是不敢相信能拉红啊，他还就真的拉红给你看

04-11

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 恒生科技应该是在3700点，很快就拉升

04-09

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 收盘了，开砸

03-25

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 等着看多慢慢起飞

03-22

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 每一次下跌都是加仓的机会，看4000点

03-20

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 看多，今天肯定会拉高

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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高位做空，让你闪崩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304272855085336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303923809038624,"gmtCreate":1715220404118,"gmtModify":1715223555016,"author":{"id":"4112536429420100","authorId":"4112536429420100","name":"lyzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742d358c4a66f380ee5dfa57b83e8d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 要开始跌了，尿性如此","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 要开始跌了，尿性如此","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 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16:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"洪灏最新谈港股：本身基本面在修复，这一波行情应该还没走完","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115386758","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"洪灏表示其根本原因在于港股基本面出现边际改善。所以，我反而认为，港股这一轮上涨本身是自己的基本面发生了一些变化，吸引了资金进来。港股基本面边际修复，一些资金就进入了港股，我觉得顺序可能是这样。由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>“由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。”</strong></p><p>思睿集团首席经济学家洪灏5月2日的对话中就推动港股最近走牛的因素，港股牛市是否会继续等话题分享了自己的观点。</p><p>过去三周，港股恒指涨了20%，恒生科技涨了30%，从今年以来表现全球最差到领跑全球市场。</p><p>洪灏表示其根本原因在于港股基本面出现边际改善。</p><p>而港股过去三四年的调整，未必是其中的资产有问题，是跟港股投资者结构优化有一定关系。</p><p>以下是本次交流的重点内容，分享给大家。</p><p><strong>港股这一波行情应该还没有走完</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>近期，海外基金适量减持了科技股为首的美股，以及部分日股，把钱投往中国市场，这个情况能持续多久我们暂时不知，有哪些因素能够判断中国市场的表现？在资产配置的过程有什么需要注意？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>资金的流向是瞬息万变的，且资金往往是逐利的。</p><p>当某个市场有所表现，它就会快速地把钱挪到那个市场，所以<strong>我并不觉得资金是市场涨的原因，它可能是市场涨的动力。</strong></p><p>否则，对港股投资者来说，它永远在被外资牵着鼻子走。</p><p>至于低估值的说法，港股的估值四年以来一直在下降，为什么低估值到了这时产生了一定的效应，这更值得商榷。</p><p>而且，今年开年的时候大家对港股非常悲观。</p><p>春节前，港股到了16,000点左右，回到了2022年10月份开始反弹的低点。</p><p>现在是18,000多点，涨了2000多点。</p><p>由于美股和日股最近都在回调，所以很多人又说港股今年领跑全球市场。</p><p>但情绪、资金面都是捉摸不定的，不要把交易和投资建立在这些面上，否则会非常被动。</p><p>其实，港股除了估值够低，情绪压抑之外，边际也发生了一些变化。</p><p>尤其是房地产板块，房地产板块一季度数据还是非常差。</p><p>但不同的是，在有关部门的帮助下，陆陆续续有一些城市进一步放开了限购，也有传闻政府在用资金买二手房、商品房作为储备，做经济适用房和廉租房等等。</p><p>所以，我反而认为，港股这一轮上涨本身是自己的基本面发生了一些变化，吸引了资金进来。</p><p>（再加上）日元的贬值，让日本金融系统产生了一些不确定性不稳定性。</p><p>美国由于通胀继续高于预期，因此美联储无法马上降息。</p><p>港股基本面边际修复，一些资金就进入了港股，我觉得顺序可能是这样。</p><p><strong>由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。</strong></p><p><strong>过去几年还留在港股的投资者都是很强的</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>近期有很多支持性政策密集出台，其中备受关注的就是新的“国九条”，以及证监会发布的5项资本市场对港合作措施，你认为实际的作用有多大？后续还可以期待哪些的政策对市场会有支持作用？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>我认为这些政策对香港市场来说属于长期利好，但长期利好对短期（走势的）效应没有市场想象得那么大。</p><p>毕竟港股（这一波）动作很大，现在已经领跑全球了，从今年最差的跑成了今年最好的。</p><p>美股经过这一轮调整后，基本上回吐了年初资金的涨幅。</p><p>所以，用长期利好的消息去解释短期的波动，是说不过去的。</p><p>过去几年我们经常用几个因子去讨论（港股市场）；</p><p>第一，中美息差，比如美联储今年开始降息，打开了中国的降息空间，对港股是一个利好等等。</p><p>第二，中美关系，基本上每一次的对话里都会提到中美关系如何发展。</p><p>第三，港股本身的一些结构性，比如新股、投资结构的变化等等。</p><p>这三个因子是互相关联的，我们一个一个来讨论。</p><p>首先是中美息差，去年年底大家就在用中美息差说事，像是，如果中美息差能够缩减，港股压力就会缩小等等。</p><p>但这没法解释从去年年底到今年春节前港股走势的逻辑，显然<strong>中美息差并不是影响港股前期熊市最主要的矛盾。</strong></p><p>其次是中美关系，美国今年是大选年，但俄乌冲突和巴以冲突已经让美国忙得手忙脚乱，且给美国的财政烧了一个巨大的赤字。</p><p>因此，我们在想美国是否有能力应对中美贸易战？我相信是没有的。继续下去，美国的通胀压力将会不堪设想。</p><p>所以，这个时候中美关系反而会比大家想象得要好。</p><p>也就是说，中美关系今年存在边际修复的可能，或者说市场对于中美关系的预期已经非常低。</p><p>最近我们看到了美国的领导、官员陆续访华，马斯克作为美国非常有代表性的一个发明家和商人，来了中国之后受到了非常高级别的接见。</p><p>同时，特斯拉的两款车型通过了国家汽车数据安全合规要求，意味着马斯克可以在中国进行自动驾驶的推广。</p><p>这都是显示了在这关键的一年，中美关系在边际的修复。</p><p>所以，中美息差、中美关系都比大家想象要好的。</p><p>最后是投资者结构的问题。</p><p>其实，由于合规要求一些美国投资者是没有办法配置中国，甚至还要减持。</p><p>对于很多投资者来说，在港股跌了三年，进入第四年熊市的时候，顶着合规压力，以及地缘政治的风险（进行配置），其实是在拿自己的职业生涯下一场赌注。</p><p>这也是基金经理低配香港市场的一个最重要原因，但请注意，这是一个行为缺陷。</p><p>换句话说，<strong>并不是说我们资产有什么大的问题，而是别人不能买。</strong></p><p>到了现在，该跑已经都跑了，外资的基金经理没有办法买香港，甚至要减持，经过了三四年的熊市，也跑了七七八八。</p><p>所以，从股权结构来看，发生了一次清洗，不能买的人、不该买的人都跑了，剩下的就是最强的。</p><p>这轮涨势其实就是从中字头、国字头开始蔓延，不少股票今年创了新高，但从股息、分红率来看，还是非常便宜。</p><p><strong>GDP今年达到5%没有问题</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>你怎么看待未来几个季度中国经济的增长？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>我觉得今年达到5%没有问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我知道很多人觉得房地产还是一个拖累，其实每次我们都聊到解决房地产是一个长期议题，并不是一朝一夕能够解决的事情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在的房地产开发投资，每年跌很多。数据也非常糟糕，百强房企4月销售额同比下降了接近一半，商品房的销售比较难看。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但话说回来，房地产已经不再是中国GDP增长最重要的驱动因素了，它已经让位给了制造业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而制造业的强势大家都感觉到了，中国的汽车、新能源、半导体、集成电路等等，这些行业的出口增加值已经远远超过了房地产的增加值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，这就是一个盲人摸象的问题，几个盲人摸着大象的不同部分得到了不同的结论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当你摸到制造业，你会觉得中国经济非常红火，摸到节假日出行的数据，会觉得中国经济红红火火，就像现在我们在这里聊天，而广大人民群众都堵在了五一出行的路上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，主要取决于你看的是哪个部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们看到，三中全会已设立了几个中心议题，房地产在这样重要的会议里被列入议题之一，就显示了解决房地产问题的重要性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们中国人都说“办法总比问题多”，相信经过四年的剧烈下行，房地产已经跌到了一个比较低的位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这个时候如果能够得到一些额外的帮助，比如说帮助开发商信用展期、再融资、用公有资金去消化一些房地产库存。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我相信，会给饱经风霜的房地产行业带来边际上的利好。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>洪灏最新谈港股：本身基本面在修复，这一波行情应该还没走完</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n洪灏最新谈港股：本身基本面在修复，这一波行情应该还没走完\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">聪明投资者 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-05-06 16:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>“由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。”</strong></p><p>思睿集团首席经济学家洪灏5月2日的对话中就推动港股最近走牛的因素，港股牛市是否会继续等话题分享了自己的观点。</p><p>过去三周，港股恒指涨了20%，恒生科技涨了30%，从今年以来表现全球最差到领跑全球市场。</p><p>洪灏表示其根本原因在于港股基本面出现边际改善。</p><p>而港股过去三四年的调整，未必是其中的资产有问题，是跟港股投资者结构优化有一定关系。</p><p>以下是本次交流的重点内容，分享给大家。</p><p><strong>港股这一波行情应该还没有走完</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>近期，海外基金适量减持了科技股为首的美股，以及部分日股，把钱投往中国市场，这个情况能持续多久我们暂时不知，有哪些因素能够判断中国市场的表现？在资产配置的过程有什么需要注意？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>资金的流向是瞬息万变的，且资金往往是逐利的。</p><p>当某个市场有所表现，它就会快速地把钱挪到那个市场，所以<strong>我并不觉得资金是市场涨的原因，它可能是市场涨的动力。</strong></p><p>否则，对港股投资者来说，它永远在被外资牵着鼻子走。</p><p>至于低估值的说法，港股的估值四年以来一直在下降，为什么低估值到了这时产生了一定的效应，这更值得商榷。</p><p>而且，今年开年的时候大家对港股非常悲观。</p><p>春节前，港股到了16,000点左右，回到了2022年10月份开始反弹的低点。</p><p>现在是18,000多点，涨了2000多点。</p><p>由于美股和日股最近都在回调，所以很多人又说港股今年领跑全球市场。</p><p>但情绪、资金面都是捉摸不定的，不要把交易和投资建立在这些面上，否则会非常被动。</p><p>其实，港股除了估值够低，情绪压抑之外，边际也发生了一些变化。</p><p>尤其是房地产板块，房地产板块一季度数据还是非常差。</p><p>但不同的是，在有关部门的帮助下，陆陆续续有一些城市进一步放开了限购，也有传闻政府在用资金买二手房、商品房作为储备，做经济适用房和廉租房等等。</p><p>所以，我反而认为，港股这一轮上涨本身是自己的基本面发生了一些变化，吸引了资金进来。</p><p>（再加上）日元的贬值，让日本金融系统产生了一些不确定性不稳定性。</p><p>美国由于通胀继续高于预期，因此美联储无法马上降息。</p><p>港股基本面边际修复，一些资金就进入了港股，我觉得顺序可能是这样。</p><p><strong>由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。</strong></p><p><strong>过去几年还留在港股的投资者都是很强的</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>近期有很多支持性政策密集出台，其中备受关注的就是新的“国九条”，以及证监会发布的5项资本市场对港合作措施，你认为实际的作用有多大？后续还可以期待哪些的政策对市场会有支持作用？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>我认为这些政策对香港市场来说属于长期利好，但长期利好对短期（走势的）效应没有市场想象得那么大。</p><p>毕竟港股（这一波）动作很大，现在已经领跑全球了，从今年最差的跑成了今年最好的。</p><p>美股经过这一轮调整后，基本上回吐了年初资金的涨幅。</p><p>所以，用长期利好的消息去解释短期的波动，是说不过去的。</p><p>过去几年我们经常用几个因子去讨论（港股市场）；</p><p>第一，中美息差，比如美联储今年开始降息，打开了中国的降息空间，对港股是一个利好等等。</p><p>第二，中美关系，基本上每一次的对话里都会提到中美关系如何发展。</p><p>第三，港股本身的一些结构性，比如新股、投资结构的变化等等。</p><p>这三个因子是互相关联的，我们一个一个来讨论。</p><p>首先是中美息差，去年年底大家就在用中美息差说事，像是，如果中美息差能够缩减，港股压力就会缩小等等。</p><p>但这没法解释从去年年底到今年春节前港股走势的逻辑，显然<strong>中美息差并不是影响港股前期熊市最主要的矛盾。</strong></p><p>其次是中美关系，美国今年是大选年，但俄乌冲突和巴以冲突已经让美国忙得手忙脚乱，且给美国的财政烧了一个巨大的赤字。</p><p>因此，我们在想美国是否有能力应对中美贸易战？我相信是没有的。继续下去，美国的通胀压力将会不堪设想。</p><p>所以，这个时候中美关系反而会比大家想象得要好。</p><p>也就是说，中美关系今年存在边际修复的可能，或者说市场对于中美关系的预期已经非常低。</p><p>最近我们看到了美国的领导、官员陆续访华，马斯克作为美国非常有代表性的一个发明家和商人，来了中国之后受到了非常高级别的接见。</p><p>同时，特斯拉的两款车型通过了国家汽车数据安全合规要求，意味着马斯克可以在中国进行自动驾驶的推广。</p><p>这都是显示了在这关键的一年，中美关系在边际的修复。</p><p>所以，中美息差、中美关系都比大家想象要好的。</p><p>最后是投资者结构的问题。</p><p>其实，由于合规要求一些美国投资者是没有办法配置中国，甚至还要减持。</p><p>对于很多投资者来说，在港股跌了三年，进入第四年熊市的时候，顶着合规压力，以及地缘政治的风险（进行配置），其实是在拿自己的职业生涯下一场赌注。</p><p>这也是基金经理低配香港市场的一个最重要原因，但请注意，这是一个行为缺陷。</p><p>换句话说，<strong>并不是说我们资产有什么大的问题，而是别人不能买。</strong></p><p>到了现在，该跑已经都跑了，外资的基金经理没有办法买香港，甚至要减持，经过了三四年的熊市，也跑了七七八八。</p><p>所以，从股权结构来看，发生了一次清洗，不能买的人、不该买的人都跑了，剩下的就是最强的。</p><p>这轮涨势其实就是从中字头、国字头开始蔓延，不少股票今年创了新高，但从股息、分红率来看，还是非常便宜。</p><p><strong>GDP今年达到5%没有问题</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>你怎么看待未来几个季度中国经济的增长？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>我觉得今年达到5%没有问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我知道很多人觉得房地产还是一个拖累，其实每次我们都聊到解决房地产是一个长期议题，并不是一朝一夕能够解决的事情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在的房地产开发投资，每年跌很多。数据也非常糟糕，百强房企4月销售额同比下降了接近一半，商品房的销售比较难看。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但话说回来，房地产已经不再是中国GDP增长最重要的驱动因素了，它已经让位给了制造业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而制造业的强势大家都感觉到了，中国的汽车、新能源、半导体、集成电路等等，这些行业的出口增加值已经远远超过了房地产的增加值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，这就是一个盲人摸象的问题，几个盲人摸着大象的不同部分得到了不同的结论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当你摸到制造业，你会觉得中国经济非常红火，摸到节假日出行的数据，会觉得中国经济红红火火，就像现在我们在这里聊天，而广大人民群众都堵在了五一出行的路上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，主要取决于你看的是哪个部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们看到，三中全会已设立了几个中心议题，房地产在这样重要的会议里被列入议题之一，就显示了解决房地产问题的重要性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们中国人都说“办法总比问题多”，相信经过四年的剧烈下行，房地产已经跌到了一个比较低的位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这个时候如果能够得到一些额外的帮助，比如说帮助开发商信用展期、再融资、用公有资金去消化一些房地产库存。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我相信，会给饱经风霜的房地产行业带来边际上的利好。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115386758","content_text":"“由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。”思睿集团首席经济学家洪灏5月2日的对话中就推动港股最近走牛的因素，港股牛市是否会继续等话题分享了自己的观点。过去三周，港股恒指涨了20%，恒生科技涨了30%，从今年以来表现全球最差到领跑全球市场。洪灏表示其根本原因在于港股基本面出现边际改善。而港股过去三四年的调整，未必是其中的资产有问题，是跟港股投资者结构优化有一定关系。以下是本次交流的重点内容，分享给大家。港股这一波行情应该还没有走完问：近期，海外基金适量减持了科技股为首的美股，以及部分日股，把钱投往中国市场，这个情况能持续多久我们暂时不知，有哪些因素能够判断中国市场的表现？在资产配置的过程有什么需要注意？洪灏：资金的流向是瞬息万变的，且资金往往是逐利的。当某个市场有所表现，它就会快速地把钱挪到那个市场，所以我并不觉得资金是市场涨的原因，它可能是市场涨的动力。否则，对港股投资者来说，它永远在被外资牵着鼻子走。至于低估值的说法，港股的估值四年以来一直在下降，为什么低估值到了这时产生了一定的效应，这更值得商榷。而且，今年开年的时候大家对港股非常悲观。春节前，港股到了16,000点左右，回到了2022年10月份开始反弹的低点。现在是18,000多点，涨了2000多点。由于美股和日股最近都在回调，所以很多人又说港股今年领跑全球市场。但情绪、资金面都是捉摸不定的，不要把交易和投资建立在这些面上，否则会非常被动。其实，港股除了估值够低，情绪压抑之外，边际也发生了一些变化。尤其是房地产板块，房地产板块一季度数据还是非常差。但不同的是，在有关部门的帮助下，陆陆续续有一些城市进一步放开了限购，也有传闻政府在用资金买二手房、商品房作为储备，做经济适用房和廉租房等等。所以，我反而认为，港股这一轮上涨本身是自己的基本面发生了一些变化，吸引了资金进来。（再加上）日元的贬值，让日本金融系统产生了一些不确定性不稳定性。美国由于通胀继续高于预期，因此美联储无法马上降息。港股基本面边际修复，一些资金就进入了港股，我觉得顺序可能是这样。由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。过去几年还留在港股的投资者都是很强的问：近期有很多支持性政策密集出台，其中备受关注的就是新的“国九条”，以及证监会发布的5项资本市场对港合作措施，你认为实际的作用有多大？后续还可以期待哪些的政策对市场会有支持作用？洪灏：我认为这些政策对香港市场来说属于长期利好，但长期利好对短期（走势的）效应没有市场想象得那么大。毕竟港股（这一波）动作很大，现在已经领跑全球了，从今年最差的跑成了今年最好的。美股经过这一轮调整后，基本上回吐了年初资金的涨幅。所以，用长期利好的消息去解释短期的波动，是说不过去的。过去几年我们经常用几个因子去讨论（港股市场）；第一，中美息差，比如美联储今年开始降息，打开了中国的降息空间，对港股是一个利好等等。第二，中美关系，基本上每一次的对话里都会提到中美关系如何发展。第三，港股本身的一些结构性，比如新股、投资结构的变化等等。这三个因子是互相关联的，我们一个一个来讨论。首先是中美息差，去年年底大家就在用中美息差说事，像是，如果中美息差能够缩减，港股压力就会缩小等等。但这没法解释从去年年底到今年春节前港股走势的逻辑，显然中美息差并不是影响港股前期熊市最主要的矛盾。其次是中美关系，美国今年是大选年，但俄乌冲突和巴以冲突已经让美国忙得手忙脚乱，且给美国的财政烧了一个巨大的赤字。因此，我们在想美国是否有能力应对中美贸易战？我相信是没有的。继续下去，美国的通胀压力将会不堪设想。所以，这个时候中美关系反而会比大家想象得要好。也就是说，中美关系今年存在边际修复的可能，或者说市场对于中美关系的预期已经非常低。最近我们看到了美国的领导、官员陆续访华，马斯克作为美国非常有代表性的一个发明家和商人，来了中国之后受到了非常高级别的接见。同时，特斯拉的两款车型通过了国家汽车数据安全合规要求，意味着马斯克可以在中国进行自动驾驶的推广。这都是显示了在这关键的一年，中美关系在边际的修复。所以，中美息差、中美关系都比大家想象要好的。最后是投资者结构的问题。其实，由于合规要求一些美国投资者是没有办法配置中国，甚至还要减持。对于很多投资者来说，在港股跌了三年，进入第四年熊市的时候，顶着合规压力，以及地缘政治的风险（进行配置），其实是在拿自己的职业生涯下一场赌注。这也是基金经理低配香港市场的一个最重要原因，但请注意，这是一个行为缺陷。换句话说，并不是说我们资产有什么大的问题，而是别人不能买。到了现在，该跑已经都跑了，外资的基金经理没有办法买香港，甚至要减持，经过了三四年的熊市，也跑了七七八八。所以，从股权结构来看，发生了一次清洗，不能买的人、不该买的人都跑了，剩下的就是最强的。这轮涨势其实就是从中字头、国字头开始蔓延，不少股票今年创了新高，但从股息、分红率来看，还是非常便宜。GDP今年达到5%没有问题问：你怎么看待未来几个季度中国经济的增长？洪灏：我觉得今年达到5%没有问题。我知道很多人觉得房地产还是一个拖累，其实每次我们都聊到解决房地产是一个长期议题，并不是一朝一夕能够解决的事情。现在的房地产开发投资，每年跌很多。数据也非常糟糕，百强房企4月销售额同比下降了接近一半，商品房的销售比较难看。但话说回来，房地产已经不再是中国GDP增长最重要的驱动因素了，它已经让位给了制造业。而制造业的强势大家都感觉到了，中国的汽车、新能源、半导体、集成电路等等，这些行业的出口增加值已经远远超过了房地产的增加值。所以，这就是一个盲人摸象的问题，几个盲人摸着大象的不同部分得到了不同的结论。当你摸到制造业，你会觉得中国经济非常红火，摸到节假日出行的数据，会觉得中国经济红红火火，就像现在我们在这里聊天，而广大人民群众都堵在了五一出行的路上。所以，主要取决于你看的是哪个部分。我们看到，三中全会已设立了几个中心议题，房地产在这样重要的会议里被列入议题之一，就显示了解决房地产问题的重要性。我们中国人都说“办法总比问题多”，相信经过四年的剧烈下行，房地产已经跌到了一个比较低的位置。这个时候如果能够得到一些额外的帮助，比如说帮助开发商信用展期、再融资、用公有资金去消化一些房地产库存。我相信，会给饱经风霜的房地产行业带来边际上的利好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303170304717120,"gmtCreate":1715051613220,"gmtModify":1715053031318,"author":{"id":"4112536429420100","authorId":"4112536429420100","name":"lyzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742d358c4a66f380ee5dfa57b83e8d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 今天肯定跌，因为昨天我跑了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 今天肯定跌，因为昨天我跑了","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 今天肯定跌，因为昨天我跑了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303170304717120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300849770033424,"gmtCreate":1714455870693,"gmtModify":1714455872079,"author":{"id":"4112536429420100","authorId":"4112536429420100","name":"lyzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742d358c4a66f380ee5dfa57b83e8d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 有人故意做空，能看得出来拉上去就砸","listText":"<a 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冲高回落就会跌的很惨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297894141079712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":295916872294744,"gmtCreate":1713275372693,"gmtModify":1713275373751,"author":{"id":"4112536429420100","authorId":"4112536429420100","name":"lyzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742d358c4a66f380ee5dfa57b83e8d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HTImain\">$恒生科技指数主连 2404(HTImain)$ </a> 请叫你跳水冠军","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HTImain\">$恒生科技指数主连 2404(HTImain)$ </a> 请叫你跳水冠军","text":"$恒生科技指数主连 2404(HTImain)$ 请叫你跳水冠军","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/295916872294744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":295914887180544,"gmtCreate":1713274828030,"gmtModify":1713274831663,"author":{"id":"4112536429420100","authorId":"4112536429420100","name":"lyzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742d358c4a66f380ee5dfa57b83e8d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 看到3200了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 看到3200了","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 看到3200了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/295914887180544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":295837525213376,"gmtCreate":1713234843932,"gmtModify":1713234845818,"author":{"id":"4112536429420100","authorId":"4112536429420100","name":"lyzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742d358c4a66f380ee5dfa57b83e8d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"所以今天大跌了","listText":"所以今天大跌了","text":"所以今天大跌了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/295837525213376","repostId":"2427885150","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2427885150","pubTimestamp":1713198711,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2427885150?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-16 00:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"汇丰：六大理由看多港股！AI、价值股、出海企业、国企将表现出众","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2427885150","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰认为，投资者对港股的信心正在增强，港股的基本面正在改善。汇丰将2024年底的恒生指数目标点位设为19,230点，预示着从当前水平上看约有15%的上升空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，投资者对港股的信心正在增强，港股的基本面正在改善。汇丰将2024年底的恒生指数目标点位设为19,230点，预示着从当前水平上看约有15%的上升空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰银行近日发布研报称，越来越多的证据显示，投资者对A股的悲观情绪正在好转，预计港股也将受到提振。汇丰表示，从经济数据和政策支持的角度看，港股的基本面正在改善。汇丰将2024年底的恒生指数目标点位设为19,230点，预示着从当前水平上看约有15%的上升空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_2634048040\">信心好转的六大迹象</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者信心是关键问题。研报表示，港股过去四年的表现不佳，投资者想知道最近的反弹是否可持续，以及投资者信心是否真的开始恢复。对这两个问题，汇丰给出了肯定的回答，并列出信心改善的六大迹象。</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>盈利预期下调减少。</strong>汇丰表示，在最近一个财报季中，分析师共识每股收益的下调次数减少。这应该会给投资者带来一些安慰，如果未来几个月盈利预期上调的情况增多，将会支持投资者情绪。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a15bc1f04e326011554eda000ed7862\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"/></p></li><li><p><strong>盈利增长前景有亮点。</strong>研报表示，港股整体的共识盈利增长预期将从2023年的5.3%上升至2024年的8.8%，其中主要将是金融、非必需消费品和通讯服务行业的贡献。而且，多个不同行业可能会带来两位数的盈利增长，其中领头的是医疗保健、非必需消费品和日常消费品。在2024年，预计市值超过10亿美元的公司中有49%将实现超过10%的盈利增长，而市值超过10亿美元的公司中有37%的盈利增长将超过15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee9005310e675dcc34e91b3316858ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad46d67ff1c39a81c901d1b5ebaeefa3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\"/></p><p><strong>3. 股价开始对积极消息做出反应。</strong>研报指出，与去年不同，投资者对盈利公告的反应变得更加积极。特别是市场开始慷慨奖励好消息。在2023年，即使公司交出了一份强劲的业绩，也未能获得奖励。同时，盈利超预期的企业比例开始增加。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a3d8589019708f75c0eb6c8c3cd2df7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\"/></p><p><strong> 4. 更多的分红。</strong>分红更多表明公司现金流充足，以及管理层对业务持续性的信心。在最近的财报季中，约35%的公司提高了每股分红（DPS）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaba67ad62eca624b88da77e9d0758be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\"/></p><p><strong>5. 股票回购。</strong>研报表示，股票回购能传递出公司的前景信号，以及潜在的价值低估，也可以通过提供额外的回报来帮助恢复投资者信心。目前，港股中回购正在增加，规模从2022年的约1100亿港元增加到2023年的预计1310亿港元。基于过去三个月的平均回购速度，2024年的回购额可能达到新高的1780亿港元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b3ee2129cb3924c643232a3591ce3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"324\"/></p><p><strong>6. 内地投资者正在增加对港股的投资。</strong>研报表示，资金流是另一个投资者信心的良好指标，而数据显示，2024年第一季度通过南向沪深港通的净流入总计为1330亿港元，同比增长76%，环比增长169%；其中3月份流入最多，达到860亿港元。这些资金流入主要集中在金融、能源和通信服务等价值领域，而在互联网等增长领域的净流出最高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8e7b6c7b7568e26dbe78dfa04a2533\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab7f2f977a8d0ebc4e73684cd06778f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b260055d9948f781dc30b19bd18b8c1e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\"/></p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_2307107229\">2024年四大投资主题</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在信心改善的基础上，汇丰列出了今年较为看好的四个投资主题。</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>AI变现与成本优化。</strong>研报表示，港股的生成式人工智能叙事主要集中在互联网和电信领域，变现的改善可以惠及在线广告、电子商务、云计算和内容平台。同时，AI可以给多个行业带来成本优化，包括帮助降低游戏、视频和网络漫画平台等领域的成本；汇丰分析师估计，游戏公司的研发费用（约占收入的20%）在五年内可以削减约40%。</p></li><li><p><strong>价值股重新估值。</strong>根据研报，鉴于互联网和非必需消费品股票占有相当比重，这些股票对利率变动较为敏感，全球债券收益率对港股尤为重要。目前，汇丰仍然预计美联储将在6月首次降息，2024年累计降息75个基点。许多价值股今年迄今表现良好，鉴于紧缩周期结束，那些收益率具有吸引力的股票可能会进一步重新评级。汇丰认为，市值高于2亿美元、3个月平均日交易量（ADTV）500万美元或以上、12个月前瞻性股息率7%或以上、2024年每股分红（DPS）预计将高于去年、2024年每股收益（EPS）预计将稳定或高于去年的股票，将会是受益者。</p></li><li><p><strong>企业出海。</strong>研报表示，越来越多的中国内地公司正在寻求全球扩张，以实现收入来源多元化并扩展业务。汇丰认为，那些能够渗透外国市场并获得显著市场份额的公司，将在收入增长和利润率方面超越同行。</p></li><li><p><strong>政策支持有望助国企表现超预期。</strong>研报认为，国企迄今为止的表现已超过私企，汇丰认为国企可能会在良好的盈利增长和更高的股东回报方面给市场带来惊喜。今年1月，国资委修订了央企业绩指标要求，其中一个最重要的进展是在评估高级管理层时将资本市场表现纳入KPI之一。结合通过支持额外的股票回购和分红付款来改善投资者回报的举措，汇丰认为国企的表现将会改善。而在港股，能源和电信等价值股中受益最为明显，表现为分红和股票回购。此外，这些改革可能会推动具有良好盈利能力和强大现金流的国企重新评级。例如，电信和石油巨头带头增强市场价值并启动了“中国特色的估值体系”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1ab48c30e99807497aeb684709c1b0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\"/></p></li></ol></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>汇丰：六大理由看多港股！AI、价值股、出海企业、国企将表现出众</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n汇丰：六大理由看多港股！AI、价值股、出海企业、国企将表现出众\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-16 00:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3712798><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>汇丰认为，投资者对港股的信心正在增强，港股的基本面正在改善。汇丰将2024年底的恒生指数目标点位设为19,230点，预示着从当前水平上看约有15%的上升空间。汇丰银行近日发布研报称，越来越多的证据显示，投资者对A股的悲观情绪正在好转，预计港股也将受到提振。汇丰表示，从经济数据和政策支持的角度看，港股的基本面正在改善。汇丰将2024年底的恒生指数目标点位设为19,230点，预示着从当前水平上看约有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3712798\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5908def89999d7e4187018f57efd4b64","relate_stocks":{"BK4521":"英国银行股","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","BK4207":"综合性银行","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3712798","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2427885150","content_text":"汇丰认为，投资者对港股的信心正在增强，港股的基本面正在改善。汇丰将2024年底的恒生指数目标点位设为19,230点，预示着从当前水平上看约有15%的上升空间。汇丰银行近日发布研报称，越来越多的证据显示，投资者对A股的悲观情绪正在好转，预计港股也将受到提振。汇丰表示，从经济数据和政策支持的角度看，港股的基本面正在改善。汇丰将2024年底的恒生指数目标点位设为19,230点，预示着从当前水平上看约有15%的上升空间。信心好转的六大迹象投资者信心是关键问题。研报表示，港股过去四年的表现不佳，投资者想知道最近的反弹是否可持续，以及投资者信心是否真的开始恢复。对这两个问题，汇丰给出了肯定的回答，并列出信心改善的六大迹象。盈利预期下调减少。汇丰表示，在最近一个财报季中，分析师共识每股收益的下调次数减少。这应该会给投资者带来一些安慰，如果未来几个月盈利预期上调的情况增多，将会支持投资者情绪。盈利增长前景有亮点。研报表示，港股整体的共识盈利增长预期将从2023年的5.3%上升至2024年的8.8%，其中主要将是金融、非必需消费品和通讯服务行业的贡献。而且，多个不同行业可能会带来两位数的盈利增长，其中领头的是医疗保健、非必需消费品和日常消费品。在2024年，预计市值超过10亿美元的公司中有49%将实现超过10%的盈利增长，而市值超过10亿美元的公司中有37%的盈利增长将超过15%。3. 股价开始对积极消息做出反应。研报指出，与去年不同，投资者对盈利公告的反应变得更加积极。特别是市场开始慷慨奖励好消息。在2023年，即使公司交出了一份强劲的业绩，也未能获得奖励。同时，盈利超预期的企业比例开始增加。 4. 更多的分红。分红更多表明公司现金流充足，以及管理层对业务持续性的信心。在最近的财报季中，约35%的公司提高了每股分红（DPS）。5. 股票回购。研报表示，股票回购能传递出公司的前景信号，以及潜在的价值低估，也可以通过提供额外的回报来帮助恢复投资者信心。目前，港股中回购正在增加，规模从2022年的约1100亿港元增加到2023年的预计1310亿港元。基于过去三个月的平均回购速度，2024年的回购额可能达到新高的1780亿港元。6. 内地投资者正在增加对港股的投资。研报表示，资金流是另一个投资者信心的良好指标，而数据显示，2024年第一季度通过南向沪深港通的净流入总计为1330亿港元，同比增长76%，环比增长169%；其中3月份流入最多，达到860亿港元。这些资金流入主要集中在金融、能源和通信服务等价值领域，而在互联网等增长领域的净流出最高。2024年四大投资主题在信心改善的基础上，汇丰列出了今年较为看好的四个投资主题。AI变现与成本优化。研报表示，港股的生成式人工智能叙事主要集中在互联网和电信领域，变现的改善可以惠及在线广告、电子商务、云计算和内容平台。同时，AI可以给多个行业带来成本优化，包括帮助降低游戏、视频和网络漫画平台等领域的成本；汇丰分析师估计，游戏公司的研发费用（约占收入的20%）在五年内可以削减约40%。价值股重新估值。根据研报，鉴于互联网和非必需消费品股票占有相当比重，这些股票对利率变动较为敏感，全球债券收益率对港股尤为重要。目前，汇丰仍然预计美联储将在6月首次降息，2024年累计降息75个基点。许多价值股今年迄今表现良好，鉴于紧缩周期结束，那些收益率具有吸引力的股票可能会进一步重新评级。汇丰认为，市值高于2亿美元、3个月平均日交易量（ADTV）500万美元或以上、12个月前瞻性股息率7%或以上、2024年每股分红（DPS）预计将高于去年、2024年每股收益（EPS）预计将稳定或高于去年的股票，将会是受益者。企业出海。研报表示，越来越多的中国内地公司正在寻求全球扩张，以实现收入来源多元化并扩展业务。汇丰认为，那些能够渗透外国市场并获得显著市场份额的公司，将在收入增长和利润率方面超越同行。政策支持有望助国企表现超预期。研报认为，国企迄今为止的表现已超过私企，汇丰认为国企可能会在良好的盈利增长和更高的股东回报方面给市场带来惊喜。今年1月，国资委修订了央企业绩指标要求，其中一个最重要的进展是在评估高级管理层时将资本市场表现纳入KPI之一。结合通过支持额外的股票回购和分红付款来改善投资者回报的举措，汇丰认为国企的表现将会改善。而在港股，能源和电信等价值股中受益最为明显，表现为分红和股票回购。此外，这些改革可能会推动具有良好盈利能力和强大现金流的国企重新评级。例如，电信和石油巨头带头增强市场价值并启动了“中国特色的估值体系”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":267,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":295691332948144,"gmtCreate":1713199148086,"gmtModify":1713199908875,"author":{"id":"4112536429420100","authorId":"4112536429420100","name":"lyzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742d358c4a66f380ee5dfa57b83e8d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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