lyzc的个人主页 - 老虎社区

lyzc

lyzc

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IP属地：北京

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0勋章

07-19

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 做空永远赚钱

06-13

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 看多看多，涨起来了

05-31

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 虽然你高开了，但是我依然做空

05-30

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 让他们看看散户的力量[开心] [开心] [开心]

05-29

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 做空永远赚钱

05-28

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 开砸开砸，下午砸盘

05-27

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 做空你，开始暴跌

05-24

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 今天预估跌四个点

05-24

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 坚决做空

05-23

$网易-S(09999)$ 今天季报肯定很垃圾，老互联网都得死

05-23

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 砸，使劲砸，跌幅2个点

05-22

$(00700)$ 坚决看多腾讯，最后潜力的公司之一

05-22

$(HSTECH)$ 做空做空，今天跌一个点

05-21

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 砸，今天跌4个点

05-18

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 注定要绿

05-16

$(02015)$ 做空，会跌倒90的

05-14

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 下来吧孩子

05-10

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 高位做空，让你闪崩

05-09

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 要开始跌了，尿性如此

05-07

说完立马跑

洪灏最新谈港股：本身基本面在修复，这一波行情应该还没走完

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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16:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"洪灏最新谈港股：本身基本面在修复，这一波行情应该还没走完","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115386758","media":"聪明投资者","summary":"洪灏表示其根本原因在于港股基本面出现边际改善。所以，我反而认为，港股这一轮上涨本身是自己的基本面发生了一些变化，吸引了资金进来。港股基本面边际修复，一些资金就进入了港股，我觉得顺序可能是这样。由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>“由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。”</strong></p><p>思睿集团首席经济学家洪灏5月2日的对话中就推动港股最近走牛的因素，港股牛市是否会继续等话题分享了自己的观点。</p><p>过去三周，港股恒指涨了20%，恒生科技涨了30%，从今年以来表现全球最差到领跑全球市场。</p><p>洪灏表示其根本原因在于港股基本面出现边际改善。</p><p>而港股过去三四年的调整，未必是其中的资产有问题，是跟港股投资者结构优化有一定关系。</p><p>以下是本次交流的重点内容，分享给大家。</p><p><strong>港股这一波行情应该还没有走完</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>近期，海外基金适量减持了科技股为首的美股，以及部分日股，把钱投往中国市场，这个情况能持续多久我们暂时不知，有哪些因素能够判断中国市场的表现？在资产配置的过程有什么需要注意？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>资金的流向是瞬息万变的，且资金往往是逐利的。</p><p>当某个市场有所表现，它就会快速地把钱挪到那个市场，所以<strong>我并不觉得资金是市场涨的原因，它可能是市场涨的动力。</strong></p><p>否则，对港股投资者来说，它永远在被外资牵着鼻子走。</p><p>至于低估值的说法，港股的估值四年以来一直在下降，为什么低估值到了这时产生了一定的效应，这更值得商榷。</p><p>而且，今年开年的时候大家对港股非常悲观。</p><p>春节前，港股到了16,000点左右，回到了2022年10月份开始反弹的低点。</p><p>现在是18,000多点，涨了2000多点。</p><p>由于美股和日股最近都在回调，所以很多人又说港股今年领跑全球市场。</p><p>但情绪、资金面都是捉摸不定的，不要把交易和投资建立在这些面上，否则会非常被动。</p><p>其实，港股除了估值够低，情绪压抑之外，边际也发生了一些变化。</p><p>尤其是房地产板块，房地产板块一季度数据还是非常差。</p><p>但不同的是，在有关部门的帮助下，陆陆续续有一些城市进一步放开了限购，也有传闻政府在用资金买二手房、商品房作为储备，做经济适用房和廉租房等等。</p><p>所以，我反而认为，港股这一轮上涨本身是自己的基本面发生了一些变化，吸引了资金进来。</p><p>（再加上）日元的贬值，让日本金融系统产生了一些不确定性不稳定性。</p><p>美国由于通胀继续高于预期，因此美联储无法马上降息。</p><p>港股基本面边际修复，一些资金就进入了港股，我觉得顺序可能是这样。</p><p><strong>由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。</strong></p><p><strong>过去几年还留在港股的投资者都是很强的</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>近期有很多支持性政策密集出台，其中备受关注的就是新的“国九条”，以及证监会发布的5项资本市场对港合作措施，你认为实际的作用有多大？后续还可以期待哪些的政策对市场会有支持作用？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>我认为这些政策对香港市场来说属于长期利好，但长期利好对短期（走势的）效应没有市场想象得那么大。</p><p>毕竟港股（这一波）动作很大，现在已经领跑全球了，从今年最差的跑成了今年最好的。</p><p>美股经过这一轮调整后，基本上回吐了年初资金的涨幅。</p><p>所以，用长期利好的消息去解释短期的波动，是说不过去的。</p><p>过去几年我们经常用几个因子去讨论（港股市场）；</p><p>第一，中美息差，比如美联储今年开始降息，打开了中国的降息空间，对港股是一个利好等等。</p><p>第二，中美关系，基本上每一次的对话里都会提到中美关系如何发展。</p><p>第三，港股本身的一些结构性，比如新股、投资结构的变化等等。</p><p>这三个因子是互相关联的，我们一个一个来讨论。</p><p>首先是中美息差，去年年底大家就在用中美息差说事，像是，如果中美息差能够缩减，港股压力就会缩小等等。</p><p>但这没法解释从去年年底到今年春节前港股走势的逻辑，显然<strong>中美息差并不是影响港股前期熊市最主要的矛盾。</strong></p><p>其次是中美关系，美国今年是大选年，但俄乌冲突和巴以冲突已经让美国忙得手忙脚乱，且给美国的财政烧了一个巨大的赤字。</p><p>因此，我们在想美国是否有能力应对中美贸易战？我相信是没有的。继续下去，美国的通胀压力将会不堪设想。</p><p>所以，这个时候中美关系反而会比大家想象得要好。</p><p>也就是说，中美关系今年存在边际修复的可能，或者说市场对于中美关系的预期已经非常低。</p><p>最近我们看到了美国的领导、官员陆续访华，马斯克作为美国非常有代表性的一个发明家和商人，来了中国之后受到了非常高级别的接见。</p><p>同时，特斯拉的两款车型通过了国家汽车数据安全合规要求，意味着马斯克可以在中国进行自动驾驶的推广。</p><p>这都是显示了在这关键的一年，中美关系在边际的修复。</p><p>所以，中美息差、中美关系都比大家想象要好的。</p><p>最后是投资者结构的问题。</p><p>其实，由于合规要求一些美国投资者是没有办法配置中国，甚至还要减持。</p><p>对于很多投资者来说，在港股跌了三年，进入第四年熊市的时候，顶着合规压力，以及地缘政治的风险（进行配置），其实是在拿自己的职业生涯下一场赌注。</p><p>这也是基金经理低配香港市场的一个最重要原因，但请注意，这是一个行为缺陷。</p><p>换句话说，<strong>并不是说我们资产有什么大的问题，而是别人不能买。</strong></p><p>到了现在，该跑已经都跑了，外资的基金经理没有办法买香港，甚至要减持，经过了三四年的熊市，也跑了七七八八。</p><p>所以，从股权结构来看，发生了一次清洗，不能买的人、不该买的人都跑了，剩下的就是最强的。</p><p>这轮涨势其实就是从中字头、国字头开始蔓延，不少股票今年创了新高，但从股息、分红率来看，还是非常便宜。</p><p><strong>GDP今年达到5%没有问题</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>你怎么看待未来几个季度中国经济的增长？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>我觉得今年达到5%没有问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我知道很多人觉得房地产还是一个拖累，其实每次我们都聊到解决房地产是一个长期议题，并不是一朝一夕能够解决的事情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在的房地产开发投资，每年跌很多。数据也非常糟糕，百强房企4月销售额同比下降了接近一半，商品房的销售比较难看。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但话说回来，房地产已经不再是中国GDP增长最重要的驱动因素了，它已经让位给了制造业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而制造业的强势大家都感觉到了，中国的汽车、新能源、半导体、集成电路等等，这些行业的出口增加值已经远远超过了房地产的增加值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，这就是一个盲人摸象的问题，几个盲人摸着大象的不同部分得到了不同的结论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当你摸到制造业，你会觉得中国经济非常红火，摸到节假日出行的数据，会觉得中国经济红红火火，就像现在我们在这里聊天，而广大人民群众都堵在了五一出行的路上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，主要取决于你看的是哪个部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们看到，三中全会已设立了几个中心议题，房地产在这样重要的会议里被列入议题之一，就显示了解决房地产问题的重要性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们中国人都说“办法总比问题多”，相信经过四年的剧烈下行，房地产已经跌到了一个比较低的位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这个时候如果能够得到一些额外的帮助，比如说帮助开发商信用展期、再融资、用公有资金去消化一些房地产库存。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我相信，会给饱经风霜的房地产行业带来边际上的利好。</strong></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>洪灏最新谈港股：本身基本面在修复，这一波行情应该还没走完</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n洪灏最新谈港股：本身基本面在修复，这一波行情应该还没走完\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072656223\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb7d47b7d71e40bb922cfa2979932b7f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">聪明投资者 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-05-06 16:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>“由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。”</strong></p><p>思睿集团首席经济学家洪灏5月2日的对话中就推动港股最近走牛的因素，港股牛市是否会继续等话题分享了自己的观点。</p><p>过去三周，港股恒指涨了20%，恒生科技涨了30%，从今年以来表现全球最差到领跑全球市场。</p><p>洪灏表示其根本原因在于港股基本面出现边际改善。</p><p>而港股过去三四年的调整，未必是其中的资产有问题，是跟港股投资者结构优化有一定关系。</p><p>以下是本次交流的重点内容，分享给大家。</p><p><strong>港股这一波行情应该还没有走完</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>近期，海外基金适量减持了科技股为首的美股，以及部分日股，把钱投往中国市场，这个情况能持续多久我们暂时不知，有哪些因素能够判断中国市场的表现？在资产配置的过程有什么需要注意？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>资金的流向是瞬息万变的，且资金往往是逐利的。</p><p>当某个市场有所表现，它就会快速地把钱挪到那个市场，所以<strong>我并不觉得资金是市场涨的原因，它可能是市场涨的动力。</strong></p><p>否则，对港股投资者来说，它永远在被外资牵着鼻子走。</p><p>至于低估值的说法，港股的估值四年以来一直在下降，为什么低估值到了这时产生了一定的效应，这更值得商榷。</p><p>而且，今年开年的时候大家对港股非常悲观。</p><p>春节前，港股到了16,000点左右，回到了2022年10月份开始反弹的低点。</p><p>现在是18,000多点，涨了2000多点。</p><p>由于美股和日股最近都在回调，所以很多人又说港股今年领跑全球市场。</p><p>但情绪、资金面都是捉摸不定的，不要把交易和投资建立在这些面上，否则会非常被动。</p><p>其实，港股除了估值够低，情绪压抑之外，边际也发生了一些变化。</p><p>尤其是房地产板块，房地产板块一季度数据还是非常差。</p><p>但不同的是，在有关部门的帮助下，陆陆续续有一些城市进一步放开了限购，也有传闻政府在用资金买二手房、商品房作为储备，做经济适用房和廉租房等等。</p><p>所以，我反而认为，港股这一轮上涨本身是自己的基本面发生了一些变化，吸引了资金进来。</p><p>（再加上）日元的贬值，让日本金融系统产生了一些不确定性不稳定性。</p><p>美国由于通胀继续高于预期，因此美联储无法马上降息。</p><p>港股基本面边际修复，一些资金就进入了港股，我觉得顺序可能是这样。</p><p><strong>由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。</strong></p><p><strong>过去几年还留在港股的投资者都是很强的</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>近期有很多支持性政策密集出台，其中备受关注的就是新的“国九条”，以及证监会发布的5项资本市场对港合作措施，你认为实际的作用有多大？后续还可以期待哪些的政策对市场会有支持作用？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>我认为这些政策对香港市场来说属于长期利好，但长期利好对短期（走势的）效应没有市场想象得那么大。</p><p>毕竟港股（这一波）动作很大，现在已经领跑全球了，从今年最差的跑成了今年最好的。</p><p>美股经过这一轮调整后，基本上回吐了年初资金的涨幅。</p><p>所以，用长期利好的消息去解释短期的波动，是说不过去的。</p><p>过去几年我们经常用几个因子去讨论（港股市场）；</p><p>第一，中美息差，比如美联储今年开始降息，打开了中国的降息空间，对港股是一个利好等等。</p><p>第二，中美关系，基本上每一次的对话里都会提到中美关系如何发展。</p><p>第三，港股本身的一些结构性，比如新股、投资结构的变化等等。</p><p>这三个因子是互相关联的，我们一个一个来讨论。</p><p>首先是中美息差，去年年底大家就在用中美息差说事，像是，如果中美息差能够缩减，港股压力就会缩小等等。</p><p>但这没法解释从去年年底到今年春节前港股走势的逻辑，显然<strong>中美息差并不是影响港股前期熊市最主要的矛盾。</strong></p><p>其次是中美关系，美国今年是大选年，但俄乌冲突和巴以冲突已经让美国忙得手忙脚乱，且给美国的财政烧了一个巨大的赤字。</p><p>因此，我们在想美国是否有能力应对中美贸易战？我相信是没有的。继续下去，美国的通胀压力将会不堪设想。</p><p>所以，这个时候中美关系反而会比大家想象得要好。</p><p>也就是说，中美关系今年存在边际修复的可能，或者说市场对于中美关系的预期已经非常低。</p><p>最近我们看到了美国的领导、官员陆续访华，马斯克作为美国非常有代表性的一个发明家和商人，来了中国之后受到了非常高级别的接见。</p><p>同时，特斯拉的两款车型通过了国家汽车数据安全合规要求，意味着马斯克可以在中国进行自动驾驶的推广。</p><p>这都是显示了在这关键的一年，中美关系在边际的修复。</p><p>所以，中美息差、中美关系都比大家想象要好的。</p><p>最后是投资者结构的问题。</p><p>其实，由于合规要求一些美国投资者是没有办法配置中国，甚至还要减持。</p><p>对于很多投资者来说，在港股跌了三年，进入第四年熊市的时候，顶着合规压力，以及地缘政治的风险（进行配置），其实是在拿自己的职业生涯下一场赌注。</p><p>这也是基金经理低配香港市场的一个最重要原因，但请注意，这是一个行为缺陷。</p><p>换句话说，<strong>并不是说我们资产有什么大的问题，而是别人不能买。</strong></p><p>到了现在，该跑已经都跑了，外资的基金经理没有办法买香港，甚至要减持，经过了三四年的熊市，也跑了七七八八。</p><p>所以，从股权结构来看，发生了一次清洗，不能买的人、不该买的人都跑了，剩下的就是最强的。</p><p>这轮涨势其实就是从中字头、国字头开始蔓延，不少股票今年创了新高，但从股息、分红率来看，还是非常便宜。</p><p><strong>GDP今年达到5%没有问题</strong></p><p><strong>问：</strong>你怎么看待未来几个季度中国经济的增长？</p><p><strong>洪灏：</strong>我觉得今年达到5%没有问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我知道很多人觉得房地产还是一个拖累，其实每次我们都聊到解决房地产是一个长期议题，并不是一朝一夕能够解决的事情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在的房地产开发投资，每年跌很多。数据也非常糟糕，百强房企4月销售额同比下降了接近一半，商品房的销售比较难看。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但话说回来，房地产已经不再是中国GDP增长最重要的驱动因素了，它已经让位给了制造业。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而制造业的强势大家都感觉到了，中国的汽车、新能源、半导体、集成电路等等，这些行业的出口增加值已经远远超过了房地产的增加值。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，这就是一个盲人摸象的问题，几个盲人摸着大象的不同部分得到了不同的结论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当你摸到制造业，你会觉得中国经济非常红火，摸到节假日出行的数据，会觉得中国经济红红火火，就像现在我们在这里聊天，而广大人民群众都堵在了五一出行的路上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，主要取决于你看的是哪个部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们看到，三中全会已设立了几个中心议题，房地产在这样重要的会议里被列入议题之一，就显示了解决房地产问题的重要性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们中国人都说“办法总比问题多”，相信经过四年的剧烈下行，房地产已经跌到了一个比较低的位置。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这个时候如果能够得到一些额外的帮助，比如说帮助开发商信用展期、再融资、用公有资金去消化一些房地产库存。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>我相信，会给饱经风霜的房地产行业带来边际上的利好。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115386758","content_text":"“由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。”思睿集团首席经济学家洪灏5月2日的对话中就推动港股最近走牛的因素，港股牛市是否会继续等话题分享了自己的观点。过去三周，港股恒指涨了20%，恒生科技涨了30%，从今年以来表现全球最差到领跑全球市场。洪灏表示其根本原因在于港股基本面出现边际改善。而港股过去三四年的调整，未必是其中的资产有问题，是跟港股投资者结构优化有一定关系。以下是本次交流的重点内容，分享给大家。港股这一波行情应该还没有走完问：近期，海外基金适量减持了科技股为首的美股，以及部分日股，把钱投往中国市场，这个情况能持续多久我们暂时不知，有哪些因素能够判断中国市场的表现？在资产配置的过程有什么需要注意？洪灏：资金的流向是瞬息万变的，且资金往往是逐利的。当某个市场有所表现，它就会快速地把钱挪到那个市场，所以我并不觉得资金是市场涨的原因，它可能是市场涨的动力。否则，对港股投资者来说，它永远在被外资牵着鼻子走。至于低估值的说法，港股的估值四年以来一直在下降，为什么低估值到了这时产生了一定的效应，这更值得商榷。而且，今年开年的时候大家对港股非常悲观。春节前，港股到了16,000点左右，回到了2022年10月份开始反弹的低点。现在是18,000多点，涨了2000多点。由于美股和日股最近都在回调，所以很多人又说港股今年领跑全球市场。但情绪、资金面都是捉摸不定的，不要把交易和投资建立在这些面上，否则会非常被动。其实，港股除了估值够低，情绪压抑之外，边际也发生了一些变化。尤其是房地产板块，房地产板块一季度数据还是非常差。但不同的是，在有关部门的帮助下，陆陆续续有一些城市进一步放开了限购，也有传闻政府在用资金买二手房、商品房作为储备，做经济适用房和廉租房等等。所以，我反而认为，港股这一轮上涨本身是自己的基本面发生了一些变化，吸引了资金进来。（再加上）日元的贬值，让日本金融系统产生了一些不确定性不稳定性。美国由于通胀继续高于预期，因此美联储无法马上降息。港股基本面边际修复，一些资金就进入了港股，我觉得顺序可能是这样。由于港股本身基本面在改变、在修复，所以这一波行情应该还没有走完。过去几年还留在港股的投资者都是很强的问：近期有很多支持性政策密集出台，其中备受关注的就是新的“国九条”，以及证监会发布的5项资本市场对港合作措施，你认为实际的作用有多大？后续还可以期待哪些的政策对市场会有支持作用？洪灏：我认为这些政策对香港市场来说属于长期利好，但长期利好对短期（走势的）效应没有市场想象得那么大。毕竟港股（这一波）动作很大，现在已经领跑全球了，从今年最差的跑成了今年最好的。美股经过这一轮调整后，基本上回吐了年初资金的涨幅。所以，用长期利好的消息去解释短期的波动，是说不过去的。过去几年我们经常用几个因子去讨论（港股市场）；第一，中美息差，比如美联储今年开始降息，打开了中国的降息空间，对港股是一个利好等等。第二，中美关系，基本上每一次的对话里都会提到中美关系如何发展。第三，港股本身的一些结构性，比如新股、投资结构的变化等等。这三个因子是互相关联的，我们一个一个来讨论。首先是中美息差，去年年底大家就在用中美息差说事，像是，如果中美息差能够缩减，港股压力就会缩小等等。但这没法解释从去年年底到今年春节前港股走势的逻辑，显然中美息差并不是影响港股前期熊市最主要的矛盾。其次是中美关系，美国今年是大选年，但俄乌冲突和巴以冲突已经让美国忙得手忙脚乱，且给美国的财政烧了一个巨大的赤字。因此，我们在想美国是否有能力应对中美贸易战？我相信是没有的。继续下去，美国的通胀压力将会不堪设想。所以，这个时候中美关系反而会比大家想象得要好。也就是说，中美关系今年存在边际修复的可能，或者说市场对于中美关系的预期已经非常低。最近我们看到了美国的领导、官员陆续访华，马斯克作为美国非常有代表性的一个发明家和商人，来了中国之后受到了非常高级别的接见。同时，特斯拉的两款车型通过了国家汽车数据安全合规要求，意味着马斯克可以在中国进行自动驾驶的推广。这都是显示了在这关键的一年，中美关系在边际的修复。所以，中美息差、中美关系都比大家想象要好的。最后是投资者结构的问题。其实，由于合规要求一些美国投资者是没有办法配置中国，甚至还要减持。对于很多投资者来说，在港股跌了三年，进入第四年熊市的时候，顶着合规压力，以及地缘政治的风险（进行配置），其实是在拿自己的职业生涯下一场赌注。这也是基金经理低配香港市场的一个最重要原因，但请注意，这是一个行为缺陷。换句话说，并不是说我们资产有什么大的问题，而是别人不能买。到了现在，该跑已经都跑了，外资的基金经理没有办法买香港，甚至要减持，经过了三四年的熊市，也跑了七七八八。所以，从股权结构来看，发生了一次清洗，不能买的人、不该买的人都跑了，剩下的就是最强的。这轮涨势其实就是从中字头、国字头开始蔓延，不少股票今年创了新高，但从股息、分红率来看，还是非常便宜。GDP今年达到5%没有问题问：你怎么看待未来几个季度中国经济的增长？洪灏：我觉得今年达到5%没有问题。我知道很多人觉得房地产还是一个拖累，其实每次我们都聊到解决房地产是一个长期议题，并不是一朝一夕能够解决的事情。现在的房地产开发投资，每年跌很多。数据也非常糟糕，百强房企4月销售额同比下降了接近一半，商品房的销售比较难看。但话说回来，房地产已经不再是中国GDP增长最重要的驱动因素了，它已经让位给了制造业。而制造业的强势大家都感觉到了，中国的汽车、新能源、半导体、集成电路等等，这些行业的出口增加值已经远远超过了房地产的增加值。所以，这就是一个盲人摸象的问题，几个盲人摸着大象的不同部分得到了不同的结论。当你摸到制造业，你会觉得中国经济非常红火，摸到节假日出行的数据，会觉得中国经济红红火火，就像现在我们在这里聊天，而广大人民群众都堵在了五一出行的路上。所以，主要取决于你看的是哪个部分。我们看到，三中全会已设立了几个中心议题，房地产在这样重要的会议里被列入议题之一，就显示了解决房地产问题的重要性。我们中国人都说“办法总比问题多”，相信经过四年的剧烈下行，房地产已经跌到了一个比较低的位置。这个时候如果能够得到一些额外的帮助，比如说帮助开发商信用展期、再融资、用公有资金去消化一些房地产库存。我相信，会给饱经风霜的房地产行业带来边际上的利好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":263538967486784,"gmtCreate":1705374657292,"gmtModify":1705387355104,"author":{"id":"4112536429420100","authorId":"4112536429420100","name":"lyzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742d358c4a66f380ee5dfa57b83e8d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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最近坚决看多，没有谁是能靠做空自己的国家赚钱","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 最近坚决看多，没有谁是能靠做空自己的国家赚钱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271319520591976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"21871903735000","authorId":"21871903735000","name":"虎虎生威x","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8288f5ed674f785235a29b4b00d4443a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"那也不代表别人要做多","text":"那也不代表别人要做多","html":"那也不代表别人要做多"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":221117404446824,"gmtCreate":1695004997808,"gmtModify":1695004998697,"author":{"id":"4112536429420100","authorId":"4112536429420100","name":"lyzc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3742d358c4a66f380ee5dfa57b83e8d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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