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03-07

$WTI原油2404(CL2404)$ 现在预期太一致了，还要折腾一阵子了

2023-09-25

$WTI原油主连 2311(CLmain)$ 今晚看91美金

2023-08-04

$WTI原油2309(CL2309)$ 本轮上涨的上限是85美金，如果突破下来下破85，即可中线空

2023-06-16

$SP500指数主连 2309(ESmain)$ 看最大泡沫如何破裂

2023-03-22

$SP500指数主连 2306(ESmain)$ 晚上先跌为敬

2023-03-22

$WTI原油主连 2305(CLmain)$ 今天先跌下去，看看能不能拉回来，回不来就算了短期就要去破60了

2023-03-13

$WTI原油主连 2304(CLmain)$ 事件导致的下跌，好的买入点

2023-02-13

$WTI原油主连 2303(CLmain)$ 不会大跌，空头在下周正式发力

2023-02-10

$WTI原油主连 2303(CLmain)$ 原油这么拉，资金方真强

2023-01-20

$SP500指数2303(ES2303)$ a股修大假，美股可以上天了

2023-01-19

短期看跌，长期看震荡

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-11-11

$WTI原油2212(CL2212)$ 现在这走势，判断不准了，先撤出来了

2022-11-02

$恒生指数主连 2211(HSImain)$台风来的是时候

2022-08-26

$WTI原油2210(CL2210)$现在就是休市就跌，开盘就涨，你看明白了么？

2022-08-23

$WTI原油2210(CL2210)$别问，一问就是开盘就涨

2022-08-12

美联储想把油价控制在90以内，可惜资本不同意，那就继续加息呗，看谁刚

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-11

$WTI原油2209(CL2209)$我觉得外盘原油走势特别针对中国市场，开盘一个样，收盘后立马就反向，韭菜这么割真牛逼

2022-08-08

最后摩根士丹利这个预测简直扯淡，经济不可能复苏了，至少到2024再说

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-06-24

$A50指数2206(CN2206)$下周一看跌，后面不好说了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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本轮上涨的上限是85美金，如果突破下来下破85，即可中线空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/205424177999960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187978278690944,"gmtCreate":1686918532931,"gmtModify":1686918533946,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连 2309(ESmain)$&nbsp;</a>看最大泡沫如何破裂","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连 2309(ESmain)$&nbsp;</a>看最大泡沫如何破裂","text":"$SP500指数主连 2309(ESmain)$ 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晚上先跌为敬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650472974","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650470067,"gmtCreate":1679474154560,"gmtModify":1679474156265,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2305(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a>今天先跌下去，看看能不能拉回来，回不来就算了短期就要去破60了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2305(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a>今天先跌下去，看看能不能拉回来，回不来就算了短期就要去破60了","text":"$WTI原油主连 2305(CLmain)$ 今天先跌下去，看看能不能拉回来，回不来就算了短期就要去破60了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650470067","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627729955,"gmtCreate":1678702117577,"gmtModify":1678702118712,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2304(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>事件导致的下跌，好的买入点","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2304(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>事件导致的下跌，好的买入点","text":"$WTI原油主连 2304(CLmain)$ 事件导致的下跌，好的买入点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627729955","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625115318,"gmtCreate":1676283251134,"gmtModify":1676283252488,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2303(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>不会大跌，空头在下周正式发力","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2303(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>不会大跌，空头在下周正式发力","text":"$WTI原油主连 2303(CLmain)$ 不会大跌，空头在下周正式发力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625115318","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625961252,"gmtCreate":1676021532377,"gmtModify":1676021533459,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2303(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>原油这么拉，资金方真强","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2303(CLmain)$ &nbsp;</a>原油这么拉，资金方真强","text":"$WTI原油主连 2303(CLmain)$ 原油这么拉，资金方真强","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625961252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626235862,"gmtCreate":1674201576657,"gmtModify":1674201577732,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ES2303\">$SP500指数2303(ES2303)$ &nbsp;</a>a股修大假，美股可以上天了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ES2303\">$SP500指数2303(ES2303)$ &nbsp;</a>a股修大假，美股可以上天了","text":"$SP500指数2303(ES2303)$ a股修大假，美股可以上天了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626235862","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626653504,"gmtCreate":1674132019509,"gmtModify":1674132021452,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"短期看跌，长期看震荡","listText":"短期看跌，长期看震荡","text":"短期看跌，长期看震荡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626653504","repostId":"2304691585","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664400266,"gmtCreate":1668156208056,"gmtModify":1668156209463,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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a股修大假，美股可以上天了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626235862","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626653504,"gmtCreate":1674132019509,"gmtModify":1674132021452,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"短期看跌，长期看震荡","listText":"短期看跌，长期看震荡","text":"短期看跌，长期看震荡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626653504","repostId":"2304691585","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2304691585","pubTimestamp":1674106620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2304691585?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-19 13:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"油价挑战100日均线失败，未来仍有上行潜力！主要经济有望避免衰退，助力市场信心升温","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2304691585","media":"梦中有蝶","summary":" OPEC和世界经济峰会的预测显示，主要经济体可能避免经济衰退，石油市场的看涨情绪正在升温。OPEC秘书长称，石油需求复苏的谨慎乐观迹象已经开始出现。荷兰国际认为，若OPEC的产量政策保持不变，2023年下半年市场将更加紧张。 ","content":"<html><body><div>\n<b>汇通财经APP讯——</b>1月18日，市场分析师Tsvetana Paraskova撰文称，OPEC和世界经济峰会的预测显示，主要经济体可能避免经济衰退，石油市场的看涨情绪正在升温。<br/><br/><img src=\"https://upload.fx678img.com/upload/ht/20230119/sy_2023011911081829.jpg\"/><br/><br/>因亚洲经济重新开放将提振需求增长，加上主要发达经济体可能避免衰退，布油周二一度升至88.07美元，为2022年12月以来的追高水平。<br/><br/><b>周二，OPEC秘书长Haitham Al-Ghais说，由于亚洲经济重新开放，对经济和石油需求复苏的谨慎乐观迹象已经开始出现。</b><br/><br/>OANDA美洲高级市场分析师Ed Moya周二暗示，中国经济的未来前景相对较最新的一系列经济数据提供了极大的乐观情绪，重启经济将在2023年给油市留下深刻印象。 <br/><br/>然而，Moya警告说，亚洲经济重启经济虽然引发油价上涨，但涨势应该很快就会停止，因面临100日均线的技术阻力。<br/><br/>布油未能突破100日均线的技术阻力，随后出现下滑，目前交投于84美元附近。 <br/> <br/>Vanda Insights周三评论道，最近油市的乐观情绪大多是“由达沃斯世界经济论坛的头条新闻所推动的。OPEC周二发布的月度石油市场展望报告为2023年全球需求增长预测保持不变提供了支持。”<br/><br/>IMF第一副总裁Gita Gopinath暗示，IMF可能很快上调其经济增长预测。他在达沃斯发表讲话时表示，<b>全球经济增长将在2023年下半年和2024年有所改善</b>。<br/><br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ING\">荷兰国际</a>集团（ING）表示，OPEC周二最新月度报告中的数据显示，假设OPEC+的产量保持在2022年12月类似的水平，全球市场在2023年上半年出现小幅过剩。<br/><br/>ING策略师Warren Patterson和Ewa Manthey周三表示：“然而，如果OPEC的产量政策保持不变，该组织确实认为2023年下半年市场将更加紧张。”<br/><br/><img src=\"https://upload.fx678img.com/upload/ht/20230119/sy_2023011911102231.jpg\"/><br/><br/><span>布伦特原油</span>连续日线图<br/>北京时间1月19日13:36，<span>布伦特原油</span>连续报84.11美元/桶<br/>\n</div></body></html>","source":"fx678_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油价挑战100日均线失败，未来仍有上行潜力！主要经济有望避免衰退，助力市场信心升温</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://news.fx678.com//202301191113281713.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://upload.fx678img.com/upload/ht/20230119/sy_2023011911081829.jpg","relate_stocks":{"SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://news.fx678.com//202301191113281713.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2304691585","content_text":"汇通财经APP讯——1月18日，市场分析师Tsvetana Paraskova撰文称，OPEC和世界经济峰会的预测显示，主要经济体可能避免经济衰退，石油市场的看涨情绪正在升温。因亚洲经济重新开放将提振需求增长，加上主要发达经济体可能避免衰退，布油周二一度升至88.07美元，为2022年12月以来的追高水平。周二，OPEC秘书长Haitham Al-Ghais说，由于亚洲经济重新开放，对经济和石油需求复苏的谨慎乐观迹象已经开始出现。OANDA美洲高级市场分析师Ed Moya周二暗示，中国经济的未来前景相对较最新的一系列经济数据提供了极大的乐观情绪，重启经济将在2023年给油市留下深刻印象。 然而，Moya警告说，亚洲经济重启经济虽然引发油价上涨，但涨势应该很快就会停止，因面临100日均线的技术阻力。布油未能突破100日均线的技术阻力，随后出现下滑，目前交投于84美元附近。  Vanda Insights周三评论道，最近油市的乐观情绪大多是“由达沃斯世界经济论坛的头条新闻所推动的。OPEC周二发布的月度石油市场展望报告为2023年全球需求增长预测保持不变提供了支持。”IMF第一副总裁Gita Gopinath暗示，IMF可能很快上调其经济增长预测。他在达沃斯发表讲话时表示，全球经济增长将在2023年下半年和2024年有所改善。荷兰国际集团（ING）表示，OPEC周二最新月度报告中的数据显示，假设OPEC+的产量保持在2022年12月类似的水平，全球市场在2023年上半年出现小幅过剩。ING策略师Warren Patterson和Ewa Manthey周三表示：“然而，如果OPEC的产量政策保持不变，该组织确实认为2023年下半年市场将更加紧张。”布伦特原油连续日线图北京时间1月19日13:36，布伦特原油连续报84.11美元/桶","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665547202,"gmtCreate":1667398037206,"gmtModify":1667398038296,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恒生指数主连 2211(HSImain)$</a>台风来的是时候","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恒生指数主连 2211(HSImain)$</a>台风来的是时候","text":"$恒生指数主连 2211(HSImain)$台风来的是时候","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665547202","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":660159617,"gmtCreate":1661497462541,"gmtModify":1661497462541,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2210\">$WTI原油2210(CL2210)$</a>现在就是休市就跌，开盘就涨，你看明白了么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CL2210\">$WTI原油2210(CL2210)$</a>现在就是休市就跌，开盘就涨，你看明白了么？","text":"$WTI原油2210(CL2210)$现在就是休市就跌，开盘就涨，你看明白了么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/660159617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684670570,"gmtCreate":1660288183994,"gmtModify":1660288260556,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美联储想把油价控制在90以内，可惜资本不同意，那就继续加息呗，看谁刚","listText":"美联储想把油价控制在90以内，可惜资本不同意，那就继续加息呗，看谁刚","text":"美联储想把油价控制在90以内，可惜资本不同意，那就继续加息呗，看谁刚","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684670570","repostId":"2258761191","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2258761191","pubTimestamp":1660275149,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2258761191?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-12 11:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"经济衰退担忧或被夸大，警惕油价反弹！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2258761191","media":"梦中有蝶","summary":" 对经济衰退的担忧已将原油价格推至最近的低点88美元。看空因素主导了市场情绪，但一些人说，对经济衰退的担忧被夸大了。高盛等大型投资银行仍高度看好原油。 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近几周，随着市场对经济衰退的担忧加剧，油价已完全丧失了自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的所有涨幅。</p><p>有迹象表明，经济增长正在放缓，这可能会削弱石油需求。但石油市场参与者和分析师难以估计，在这场与2008/2009年信贷崩溃和危机截然不同的衰退中，需求会受到多大影响。</p><p>看空因素主导着当前的市场情绪，但一些分析师表示，纸面交易商可能已经反映了对衰退的过度担忧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e76afb4470018b18d5730d364c2c2a6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>与此同时，美国劳动力市场的表现好于预期，无视其他显示美国经济正在放缓的悲观信号。另外，由于汽油价格下降，美国7月份的年化通胀率比前一个月有所下降。</p><p>尽管如此，看空情绪目前在石油市场上盛行，因为参与者更关注衰退担忧，俄罗斯石油出口稳定，而不是早先预计的300万桶/天的大规模损失，以及中国工厂活动减弱和疫情封锁打压了燃料需求。</p><p><b>即将到来的看涨信号包括美国本月和下个月的飓风季节</b>，届时严重的风暴和飓风可能迫使墨西哥湾的生产平台停产，或墨西哥湾岸区炼油厂抢先停产。<b>美国释放SPR预计将于10月份结束</b>，这可能会在年底前形成另一个看涨因素。与此同时，由于持续的资本约束、供应链限制和成本通胀，<b>美国石油生产商并没有大幅提高产量</b>——即使油价在100美元时也是如此。<b>欧盟禁止进口俄罗斯海运石油的禁令预计将于今年年底生效</b>，其全面影响也难以估计，对俄罗斯石油可能设置的价格上限的影响也难以估计。如果买家承诺以某个价格或低于某个价格购买俄罗斯原油，该上限将允许为俄罗斯原油提供保险和其他服务。</p><p>然而，石油市场目前正受制于对全球经济衰退和需求破坏的担忧。由于能源价格飙升和俄罗斯管道天然气供应不足，迫使一些能源密集型行业的公司减产，欧洲对经济衰退的担忧加剧。在英国，英格兰银行上周警告称，该国预计将从今年第四季度开始进入衰退，持续至2023年底。</p><p>SEB银行在本周早些时候的一份研究报告中说，由于对经济衰退和全球经济增长放缓的担忧，布伦特原油和WTI原油的投机净多头头寸（看多和看空头寸之间的差异）在8月初已降至非常低的水平。</p><p>交易商本周表示，原油现货市场也因担心经济放缓或衰退而失去动力。新加坡一名交易商表示：“目前市场非常悲观，没有人急于买入。”</p><p>然而，美国的劳动力市场仍然强劲，最新的就业数据远远超过了分析师的估计。美国劳工统计局上周说，7月份非农就业人数增加了52.8万人，失业率小幅降至3.5%。这一数字打破了道琼斯估计的增加25.8万个工作岗位和3.6%的失业率。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>经济学家Michael Gapen在一份报告中称：&#34;该报告给就业需求大幅降温泼了一盆冷水，但对美国整体经济和工人而言是一个好迹象。&#34;</p><p>一些分析师说，WTI原油期货上周下跌9%的情况被夸大了，对经济的担忧可能被过分渲染了。Capital Economics驻伦敦首席大宗商品经济学家Caroline Bain表示：“总体情况是，市场对衰退的担忧可能太多了。”</p><p>近期油价走势将受到经济形势、通胀和加息的影响，<b>但一些看涨因素可能会推动油价回升。这些因素包括非常低的全球闲置产能，OPEC+无法生产比现在更多的石油，以及俄罗斯与西方对峙的不确定性</b>。未来几个月，俄罗斯对市场的供应会受到怎样的影响，以及普京是否会简单地停止向那些加入对俄罗斯石油实施潜在价格上限的国家出售石油，这些都将变得更加清晰。拟议的价格上限包括允许为俄罗斯的石油运输提供保险和其他服务，但莫斯科已经表示，如果价格上限低于生产成本，它将不会出口石油。</p><p>虽然一些分析人士说，随着经济衰退的临近，油价会进一步下跌，<b>但也有人说，这次的衰退可能会有所不同，不会导致石油需求同比实际下降</b>。</p><p>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>将本季度布伦特原油价格预测下调至每桶110美元，低于此前预测的每桶140美元，但<b>高盛仍认为，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分</b>。高盛策略师本周在彭博刊发的一份报告中写道：“我们认为，即使假设所有这些负面冲击都结束了，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分，近几个月来，市场赤字仍高于我们的预期。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60dc0e900feb24efcce346f347fafdeb\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>布伦特原油连续日线图</p><p>北京时间8月12日10：42 布伦特原油连续 报 99.19美元/桶</p></body></html>","source":"fx678_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>经济衰退担忧或被夸大，警惕油价反弹！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n经济衰退担忧或被夸大，警惕油价反弹！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-12 11:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.fx678.com//202208121045211711.shtml><strong>梦中有蝶</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近几周，随着市场对经济衰退的担忧加剧，油价已完全丧失了自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的所有涨幅。有迹象表明，经济增长正在放缓，这可能会削弱石油需求。但石油市场参与者和分析师难以估计，在这场与2008/2009年信贷崩溃和危机截然不同的衰退中，需求会受到多大影响。看空因素主导着当前的市场情绪，但一些分析师表示，纸面交易商可能已经反映了对衰退的过度担忧。与此同时，美国劳动力市场的表现好于预期，无视其他显示...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.fx678.com//202208121045211711.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e76afb4470018b18d5730d364c2c2a6","relate_stocks":{"DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN"},"source_url":"https://news.fx678.com//202208121045211711.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2258761191","content_text":"最近几周，随着市场对经济衰退的担忧加剧，油价已完全丧失了自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的所有涨幅。有迹象表明，经济增长正在放缓，这可能会削弱石油需求。但石油市场参与者和分析师难以估计，在这场与2008/2009年信贷崩溃和危机截然不同的衰退中，需求会受到多大影响。看空因素主导着当前的市场情绪，但一些分析师表示，纸面交易商可能已经反映了对衰退的过度担忧。与此同时，美国劳动力市场的表现好于预期，无视其他显示美国经济正在放缓的悲观信号。另外，由于汽油价格下降，美国7月份的年化通胀率比前一个月有所下降。尽管如此，看空情绪目前在石油市场上盛行，因为参与者更关注衰退担忧，俄罗斯石油出口稳定，而不是早先预计的300万桶/天的大规模损失，以及中国工厂活动减弱和疫情封锁打压了燃料需求。即将到来的看涨信号包括美国本月和下个月的飓风季节，届时严重的风暴和飓风可能迫使墨西哥湾的生产平台停产，或墨西哥湾岸区炼油厂抢先停产。美国释放SPR预计将于10月份结束，这可能会在年底前形成另一个看涨因素。与此同时，由于持续的资本约束、供应链限制和成本通胀，美国石油生产商并没有大幅提高产量——即使油价在100美元时也是如此。欧盟禁止进口俄罗斯海运石油的禁令预计将于今年年底生效，其全面影响也难以估计，对俄罗斯石油可能设置的价格上限的影响也难以估计。如果买家承诺以某个价格或低于某个价格购买俄罗斯原油，该上限将允许为俄罗斯原油提供保险和其他服务。然而，石油市场目前正受制于对全球经济衰退和需求破坏的担忧。由于能源价格飙升和俄罗斯管道天然气供应不足，迫使一些能源密集型行业的公司减产，欧洲对经济衰退的担忧加剧。在英国，英格兰银行上周警告称，该国预计将从今年第四季度开始进入衰退，持续至2023年底。SEB银行在本周早些时候的一份研究报告中说，由于对经济衰退和全球经济增长放缓的担忧，布伦特原油和WTI原油的投机净多头头寸（看多和看空头寸之间的差异）在8月初已降至非常低的水平。交易商本周表示，原油现货市场也因担心经济放缓或衰退而失去动力。新加坡一名交易商表示：“目前市场非常悲观，没有人急于买入。”然而，美国的劳动力市场仍然强劲，最新的就业数据远远超过了分析师的估计。美国劳工统计局上周说，7月份非农就业人数增加了52.8万人，失业率小幅降至3.5%。这一数字打破了道琼斯估计的增加25.8万个工作岗位和3.6%的失业率。美国银行经济学家Michael Gapen在一份报告中称：\"该报告给就业需求大幅降温泼了一盆冷水，但对美国整体经济和工人而言是一个好迹象。\"一些分析师说，WTI原油期货上周下跌9%的情况被夸大了，对经济的担忧可能被过分渲染了。Capital Economics驻伦敦首席大宗商品经济学家Caroline Bain表示：“总体情况是，市场对衰退的担忧可能太多了。”近期油价走势将受到经济形势、通胀和加息的影响，但一些看涨因素可能会推动油价回升。这些因素包括非常低的全球闲置产能，OPEC+无法生产比现在更多的石油，以及俄罗斯与西方对峙的不确定性。未来几个月，俄罗斯对市场的供应会受到怎样的影响，以及普京是否会简单地停止向那些加入对俄罗斯石油实施潜在价格上限的国家出售石油，这些都将变得更加清晰。拟议的价格上限包括允许为俄罗斯的石油运输提供保险和其他服务，但莫斯科已经表示，如果价格上限低于生产成本，它将不会出口石油。虽然一些分析人士说，随着经济衰退的临近，油价会进一步下跌，但也有人说，这次的衰退可能会有所不同，不会导致石油需求同比实际下降。例如，高盛将本季度布伦特原油价格预测下调至每桶110美元，低于此前预测的每桶140美元，但高盛仍认为，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分。高盛策略师本周在彭博刊发的一份报告中写道：“我们认为，即使假设所有这些负面冲击都结束了，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分，近几个月来，市场赤字仍高于我们的预期。”布伦特原油连续日线图北京时间8月12日10：42 布伦特原油连续 报 99.19美元/桶","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685428980,"gmtCreate":1659915474645,"gmtModify":1659922624029,"author":{"id":"4106140573610350","authorId":"4106140573610350","name":"大石投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f4d6dac6bccd53237fb1687972aa96","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最后摩根士丹利这个预测简直扯淡，经济不可能复苏了，至少到2024再说","listText":"最后摩根士丹利这个预测简直扯淡，经济不可能复苏了，至少到2024再说","text":"最后摩根士丹利这个预测简直扯淡，经济不可能复苏了，至少到2024再说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685428980","repostId":"2257198756","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2257198756","pubTimestamp":1659702076,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2257198756?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-05 20:21","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"国际油价失守90美元关口，是否会持续大跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2257198756","media":"同花顺财经期货","summary":"21世纪经济报道记者 吴斌 上海报道随着市场对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧，布伦特原油、WTI原油已经双双跌回俄乌冲突前的水平，美国WTI原油更是已经失守90美元关口。美东时间8月4日，美国原油期 ...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　<img src=\"http://comment.10jqka.com.cn/sourcepic/12/MjHKwLzNvq28w7GotcAtsay.png\"/>记者 吴斌 上海报道</p><p>　　随着市场对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧，布伦特原油、WTI原油已经双双跌回俄乌冲突前的水平，美国WTI原油更是已经失守90美元关口。</p><p>　　美东时间8月4日，美国原油期货结算价下跌2.34%，报88.54美元/桶，创下2月2日以来最低收盘水平。布伦特原油期货结算价下跌2.75%，报94.12美元/桶，创下2月18日以来最低收盘水平。</p><p>　　对比来看，在俄乌冲突暴发前一天，2月23日布伦特原油收于96.84美元/桶，WTI原油收于92.10美元/桶。</p><p>　　对于国际原油价格跌回俄乌冲突前的原因，石油行业高级经济师朱润民对<img src=\"http://comment.10jqka.com.cn/sourcepic/12/MjHKwLzNvq28w7GotcAtsay.png\"/>记者表示，市场已经基本消化俄乌冲突造成的石油供给影响，再叠加全球性的高通胀，以美联储为代表的欧美央行希望通过加息来控制通胀，诱发市场对世界经济衰退的担忧。其次，美元在升值，对以美元计量的国际原油价格也有明显的抑制作用，2022年2月24日至8月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>上升了近10%。第三，随着煤炭、天然气价格的持续高涨，连创历史新高，对国际原油价格也有一定的抑制作用，煤炭和天然气发电更加侧重于基本需求，相对更加刚性，在民众收入相对稳定的情况下，保基本需求的支出大幅上升，必然对非基本需求的支出产生挤压。</p><p>　　资金面因素也影响了油价。中国银行研究院高级研究员王有鑫对<img src=\"http://comment.10jqka.com.cn/sourcepic/12/MjHKwLzNvq28w7GotcAtsay.png\"/>记者表示，最近油价大跌其实既有经济基本面的影响，也有金融投机资本回撤的影响。其中，金融投机因素的存在放大了原油价格的波动，而经济基本面的变化成为市场情绪变化的重要驱动因素。</p><p>　　对于未来，王有鑫预测，随着流动性退潮和金融投资资本回撤，原油走势将更多由经济基本面决定，未来波幅可能将收窄，下半年油价走势将与经济走势密切相关，如果欧美等经济体增长持续回落，货币政策进一步收紧，原油需求将进一步减少，油价依然存在回落可能。</p><p>　　另一方面，虽然衰退担忧打击了能源需求，但供应端的紧张态势仍有望给油价提供支撑，国际油价仍远高于过去多年来的低位。</p><p>　　<strong>国际油价跌回俄乌冲突前</strong></p><p>　　今年3月，俄乌冲突一度助推布伦特原油和WTI原油双双突破每桶130美元的高位，均创下2008年以来新高。</p><p>　　但随着欧美央行持续大力加息抗通胀，经济衰退风险也在日益升温，国际油价已跌回俄乌冲突前的水平。例如，英国央行8月4日坦言，预计英国经济将从今年第四季度开始进入衰退，经济衰退将持续五个季度，为金融危机以来持续最长的衰退期，预计GDP将总共萎缩约2.1%。</p><p>　　此外，美国经济已经连续两个季度萎缩，进入“技术性衰退”。展望三季度，业内人士眼下也已对美国经济前景充满担忧。</p><p>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>美国首席经济学家Michael Gapen预计，三季度美国GDP将再度下降0.5%，然后保持萎缩势头直到2023年初。Gapen指出，随着通胀提高了食品、能源等必需品的成本，消费者感受到实际收入的冲击，这将进一步打击消费信心。</p><p>　　王有鑫对记者分析称，近期油价大幅下跌主要反映了全球经济下行压力和流动性紧缩现实。一方面，虽然供给端仍然存在瓶颈，但需求端增速回落逐渐推动原油供需回归平衡。根据国际能源署7月最新预测，预计今年全球石油日需求将增加170万桶，较6月预测下降10万桶，欧美等经济体经济增速下行对需求的影响逐渐显现。从供给端看，欧佩克+同意9月份每天增加10万桶原油产量，预计到年底原油产量将增长180万桶/日，原油供需失衡情况或将逐渐得到缓解，推动原油价格回落。此外，俄乌冲突后原油价格一度快速上行，这部分是缘于投机资本的推动，而随着全球流动性的收紧和原油供需的改善，投机资金逐渐回撤，原油价格逐渐回归基本面主导。</p><p>　　整体而言，最近几个月石油市场极端吃紧的局面也有所缓解。近月合约溢价下降，到目前为止没有太多迹象显示国际制裁对俄罗斯原油出口造成实质性打击。</p><p>　　<strong>基本面不支持油价持续大跌</strong></p><p>　　尽管近期油价有所回落，但更多反映的是对未来经济衰退的担忧，其实全球市场仍供应紧张，油市基本面依旧良好，不太可能持续大跌。</p><p>　　例如，沙特阿美将9月运往亚洲炼油厂的阿拉伯轻质原油的价格较8月份上涨了50美分，使得整体价格较阿曼-迪拜基准原油高出9.8美元/桶，创下有史以来的最高溢价。</p><p>　　由于沙特是世界上最大的石油出口国，大部分原油销往亚洲，沙特阿美的月度定价决策也被视为石油市场的风向标。</p><p>　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>首席大宗商品分析师Jeff Currie认为，尽管需求增长放缓，但由于多年投资不足，供应仍然严重受限，市场需求仍高于供应，目前保持着100万桶/日的供需赤字。关于经济放缓的影响，深度衰退的明显特点是期货升水，目前尚没有看到这一点，原油期货价格仍低于现货价格。</p><p>　　尽管需求逐渐减弱，但供给不足仍是支撑油价的关键力量。当地时间8月3日，欧佩克+同意9月份日产量增加10万桶，创下史上最小增产幅度，这一结果远低于此前市场普遍预计的30万桶/天-40万桶/天，欧佩克+实际产量更是远低于目标产量。</p><p>　　而这背后的原因是，欧佩克各成员国的闲置产能普遍已经很低，由于多年来对新产能投资不足，大多数成员国已经在增产问题上有心无力。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，中东的闲置产能已降至“极微”的水平，约为每天200万桶，仅占全球需求的2%。</p><p>　　美国银行认为，即使欧佩克+实现了最新的增产目标，也可能不足以平息高油价，因为欧美拟议中的对俄油设定价格上限，恐怕会招致俄罗斯的反击：减产减供。“尽管人们开始担心衰退并推低油价，但燃料替代效应和对俄罗斯制裁可能会给油价带来上行风险。欧盟/美国对俄罗斯油价设定上限，可能引发俄罗斯减产，将布伦特原油价格推升至每桶130美元以上。”</p><p>　　总体而言，尽管近期油价下跌，但鉴于供应问题仍未解决，分析师普遍认为油市基本面良好，未来下跌空间有限。</p><p>　　朱润民展望道，如果不出现严重的经济衰退，油市供需状况相对偏紧的概率更大。如果世界经济出现严重的衰退，需求大幅滑坡，供需状况将会相对宽松，但不管怎么样，未来不会出现需要欧佩克+每天减产上千万桶原油的情况，甚至不会出现需要削减产量的情况。</p><p>　　即使在最糟糕的情况下，国际油价也很难回到过去的低位。朱润民预计，国际原油价格回落的空间、低位运行的时间预计非常有限。不能排除WTI原油进一步回落到80美元/桶、甚至70美元/桶之下，但60美元/桶应该是一个非常低且不可持续的水平，几乎不可能重新回到2020年低于40美元/桶的水平。</p><p>　　华尔街投行也对油价持相对积极的态度。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>指出，一方面原油市场供应依旧紧张，另一方面高油价开始破坏需求，加上加息和衰退等因素，供需将逐步趋于平衡，油价将开始回落。之后随着经济从衰退中复苏，油价将再度回升。摩根士丹利将今年三季度的油价预测值下调20美元至110美元/桶，2023年一季度油价下调至最低点95美元/桶，随后在明年下半年再度回升至110美元/桶。</p><p>　　(作者：吴斌 编辑：张星）</p>\n<p><strong>关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">同花顺</a>财经（ths518），获取更多机会</strong></p>\n<span></span>\n</div></body></html>","source":"ths_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国际油价失守90美元关口，是否会持续大跌</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国际油价失守90美元关口，是否会持续大跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-05 20:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20220805/c640948233.shtml><strong>同花顺财经期货</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>记者 吴斌 上海报道　　随着市场对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧，布伦特原油、WTI原油已经双双跌回俄乌冲突前的水平，美国WTI原油更是已经失守90美元关口。　　美东时间8月4日，美国原油期货结算价下跌2.34%，报88.54美元/桶，创下2月2日以来最低收盘水平。布伦特原油期货结算价下跌2.75%，报94.12美元/桶，创下2月18日以来最低收盘水平。　　对比来看，在俄乌冲突暴发前一天，2月23日...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20220805/c640948233.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)"},"source_url":"http://goodsfu.10jqka.com.cn/20220805/c640948233.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2257198756","content_text":"记者 吴斌 上海报道　　随着市场对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧，布伦特原油、WTI原油已经双双跌回俄乌冲突前的水平，美国WTI原油更是已经失守90美元关口。　　美东时间8月4日，美国原油期货结算价下跌2.34%，报88.54美元/桶，创下2月2日以来最低收盘水平。布伦特原油期货结算价下跌2.75%，报94.12美元/桶，创下2月18日以来最低收盘水平。　　对比来看，在俄乌冲突暴发前一天，2月23日布伦特原油收于96.84美元/桶，WTI原油收于92.10美元/桶。　　对于国际原油价格跌回俄乌冲突前的原因，石油行业高级经济师朱润民对记者表示，市场已经基本消化俄乌冲突造成的石油供给影响，再叠加全球性的高通胀，以美联储为代表的欧美央行希望通过加息来控制通胀，诱发市场对世界经济衰退的担忧。其次，美元在升值，对以美元计量的国际原油价格也有明显的抑制作用，2022年2月24日至8月4日，美元指数上升了近10%。第三，随着煤炭、天然气价格的持续高涨，连创历史新高，对国际原油价格也有一定的抑制作用，煤炭和天然气发电更加侧重于基本需求，相对更加刚性，在民众收入相对稳定的情况下，保基本需求的支出大幅上升，必然对非基本需求的支出产生挤压。　　资金面因素也影响了油价。中国银行研究院高级研究员王有鑫对记者表示，最近油价大跌其实既有经济基本面的影响，也有金融投机资本回撤的影响。其中，金融投机因素的存在放大了原油价格的波动，而经济基本面的变化成为市场情绪变化的重要驱动因素。　　对于未来，王有鑫预测，随着流动性退潮和金融投资资本回撤，原油走势将更多由经济基本面决定，未来波幅可能将收窄，下半年油价走势将与经济走势密切相关，如果欧美等经济体增长持续回落，货币政策进一步收紧，原油需求将进一步减少，油价依然存在回落可能。　　另一方面，虽然衰退担忧打击了能源需求，但供应端的紧张态势仍有望给油价提供支撑，国际油价仍远高于过去多年来的低位。　　国际油价跌回俄乌冲突前　　今年3月，俄乌冲突一度助推布伦特原油和WTI原油双双突破每桶130美元的高位，均创下2008年以来新高。　　但随着欧美央行持续大力加息抗通胀，经济衰退风险也在日益升温，国际油价已跌回俄乌冲突前的水平。例如，英国央行8月4日坦言，预计英国经济将从今年第四季度开始进入衰退，经济衰退将持续五个季度，为金融危机以来持续最长的衰退期，预计GDP将总共萎缩约2.1%。　　此外，美国经济已经连续两个季度萎缩，进入“技术性衰退”。展望三季度，业内人士眼下也已对美国经济前景充满担忧。　　美国银行美国首席经济学家Michael Gapen预计，三季度美国GDP将再度下降0.5%，然后保持萎缩势头直到2023年初。Gapen指出，随着通胀提高了食品、能源等必需品的成本，消费者感受到实际收入的冲击，这将进一步打击消费信心。　　王有鑫对记者分析称，近期油价大幅下跌主要反映了全球经济下行压力和流动性紧缩现实。一方面，虽然供给端仍然存在瓶颈，但需求端增速回落逐渐推动原油供需回归平衡。根据国际能源署7月最新预测，预计今年全球石油日需求将增加170万桶，较6月预测下降10万桶，欧美等经济体经济增速下行对需求的影响逐渐显现。从供给端看，欧佩克+同意9月份每天增加10万桶原油产量，预计到年底原油产量将增长180万桶/日，原油供需失衡情况或将逐渐得到缓解，推动原油价格回落。此外，俄乌冲突后原油价格一度快速上行，这部分是缘于投机资本的推动，而随着全球流动性的收紧和原油供需的改善，投机资金逐渐回撤，原油价格逐渐回归基本面主导。　　整体而言，最近几个月石油市场极端吃紧的局面也有所缓解。近月合约溢价下降，到目前为止没有太多迹象显示国际制裁对俄罗斯原油出口造成实质性打击。　　基本面不支持油价持续大跌　　尽管近期油价有所回落，但更多反映的是对未来经济衰退的担忧，其实全球市场仍供应紧张，油市基本面依旧良好，不太可能持续大跌。　　例如，沙特阿美将9月运往亚洲炼油厂的阿拉伯轻质原油的价格较8月份上涨了50美分，使得整体价格较阿曼-迪拜基准原油高出9.8美元/桶，创下有史以来的最高溢价。　　由于沙特是世界上最大的石油出口国，大部分原油销往亚洲，沙特阿美的月度定价决策也被视为石油市场的风向标。　　高盛首席大宗商品分析师Jeff Currie认为，尽管需求增长放缓，但由于多年投资不足，供应仍然严重受限，市场需求仍高于供应，目前保持着100万桶/日的供需赤字。关于经济放缓的影响，深度衰退的明显特点是期货升水，目前尚没有看到这一点，原油期货价格仍低于现货价格。　　尽管需求逐渐减弱，但供给不足仍是支撑油价的关键力量。当地时间8月3日，欧佩克+同意9月份日产量增加10万桶，创下史上最小增产幅度，这一结果远低于此前市场普遍预计的30万桶/天-40万桶/天，欧佩克+实际产量更是远低于目标产量。　　而这背后的原因是，欧佩克各成员国的闲置产能普遍已经很低，由于多年来对新产能投资不足，大多数成员国已经在增产问题上有心无力。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，中东的闲置产能已降至“极微”的水平，约为每天200万桶，仅占全球需求的2%。　　美国银行认为，即使欧佩克+实现了最新的增产目标，也可能不足以平息高油价，因为欧美拟议中的对俄油设定价格上限，恐怕会招致俄罗斯的反击：减产减供。“尽管人们开始担心衰退并推低油价，但燃料替代效应和对俄罗斯制裁可能会给油价带来上行风险。欧盟/美国对俄罗斯油价设定上限，可能引发俄罗斯减产，将布伦特原油价格推升至每桶130美元以上。”　　总体而言，尽管近期油价下跌，但鉴于供应问题仍未解决，分析师普遍认为油市基本面良好，未来下跌空间有限。　　朱润民展望道，如果不出现严重的经济衰退，油市供需状况相对偏紧的概率更大。如果世界经济出现严重的衰退，需求大幅滑坡，供需状况将会相对宽松，但不管怎么样，未来不会出现需要欧佩克+每天减产上千万桶原油的情况，甚至不会出现需要削减产量的情况。　　即使在最糟糕的情况下，国际油价也很难回到过去的低位。朱润民预计，国际原油价格回落的空间、低位运行的时间预计非常有限。不能排除WTI原油进一步回落到80美元/桶、甚至70美元/桶之下，但60美元/桶应该是一个非常低且不可持续的水平，几乎不可能重新回到2020年低于40美元/桶的水平。　　华尔街投行也对油价持相对积极的态度。摩根士丹利指出，一方面原油市场供应依旧紧张，另一方面高油价开始破坏需求，加上加息和衰退等因素，供需将逐步趋于平衡，油价将开始回落。之后随着经济从衰退中复苏，油价将再度回升。摩根士丹利将今年三季度的油价预测值下调20美元至110美元/桶，2023年一季度油价下调至最低点95美元/桶，随后在明年下半年再度回升至110美元/桶。　　(作者：吴斌 编辑：张星）\n关注同花顺财经（ths518），获取更多机会","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}