进强VVvv的个人主页 - 老虎社区

进强VVvv

进强VVvv

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IP属地：广东

20关注

2粉丝

3主题

0勋章

11-08

能挣钱的时候努力挣钱，能吃的时候遇到美食想吃就吃，能动的时候，去想去的地方看风景

11-05

即便是可能与之战斗，也希望对手是一个正常人。希望特朗普当选！

10-05

中概股选啥？谁选谁知道，为啥不选美股？

10-05

1-8 ，5-7小脑斧虎瞎了我的眼睛 [流泪] [流泪]

07-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 因为小马哥，所以爱永久

07-18

真爱不怕爹（跌）

06-28

长虹

06-20

波段痛失英伟达，跳脚啊

06-12

不是资深虎友，但愿以后的日子相伴永久！

06-01

科学家

03-06

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 月满则亏，木秀于林风必摧之

02-15

新年快乐

@Yonny:2024/02/15 复盘笔记 by Yonny

02-15

龙年吉祥如意

01-26

涨高了，必然会回调，没有例外

01-09

阅

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-09-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 无脑挺小马哥！因为爱所以爱！

2023-09-05

节日又回来了，快乐也回来了，快乐的日子怎可缺了甜蜜的点缀？继续看好好时！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-08-29

稀巴烂公司，就是拉肚子也有止泻的时候啊

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-07-03

小试牛刀

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-06-21

该

抱歉，原内容已删除

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但只敢停留在假设阶段。。。毕竟我现在6位数的资金也有好一部分是杠杆资金。。。万一出现什么黑天鹅，后果很严重。。。对于币圈来说，假如又出了一份类似游戏禁令的征求稿，《全面禁止我国一切涉及虚拟货币相关业务的私营企业运营》呢 。。。那会算一个黑天鹅吧😑 害，宁可赚少一点。。也要先走得稳一些。。 只能这么告诫自己管住手了。。[流泪] [流泪] 【今年目标】 争取卖掉多余的房子，换成可流动的证券。。。再争取拿到更廉价的融资。。。 先把手头证券资产上到7位数！[正经] 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23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"数十亿美元一触即发！比特币即将面临“生死局”？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2401295279","media":"金十数据","summary":"加密货币领域的“分水岭时刻”将至！","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>加密货币领域的“分水岭时刻”将至！</p></blockquote><p>周一，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>、方舟（ARK）和其他几家在美国直接投资比特币的交易所交易基金（ETF）潜在发行人向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了修改后的申请表格。</strong></p><p>富达、景顺、Galaxy Digital和WisdomTree等公司也向SEC会提交了修改后的S-1文件。<strong>监管机构必须在当地时间1月10日之前对其中至少一项申请采取行动，加密货币业内人士猜测，监管机构将利用这一日期立即宣布一系列决定。</strong></p><p>在各资管提交修订文件的消息传出后，比特币扭转了早些时候的跌势，并重回45000美元上方。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0a97d53526aad51299de4d131b28bf6\" tg-width=\"1839\" tg-height=\"814\"/></p><p>在比特币现货ETF开始交易之前，必须满足两个技术要求。首先，SEC必须在ETF上市交易所提交的所谓19b-4文件上签字，其次，监管机构必须批准相关的S-1表格，这是潜在发行人的注册申请。</p><p>据外媒报道，<strong>SEC计划在未来几天对两家交易所提交的19b-4文件进行投票表决</strong>。监管机构可能会，也可能不会在大约同一时间对发行人的S-1申请采取行动。如果SEC批准了这两项要求，比特币现货ETF最早可能在下一个交易日开始交易。</p><p>SEC的一名代表早些时候拒绝就申请的状况置评。</p><h2 id=\"id_3180194002\">加密货币的“分水岭时刻”！</h2><p>比特币的支持者表示，<strong>由最大的加密代币支持的ETF将代表数字货币资产的“分水岭时刻”。数十亿美元的市场资金正“蠢蠢欲动”。</strong></p><p>消息人士透露称，若成功上市，贝莱德现货ETF上市首周或将有超过20亿美元的资金流入。</p><p>加密风险投资公司Framework Ventures的联合创始Michael Anderson表示，“市场仍然严重低估了比特币ETF获批的潜在影响。”</p><p>现SEC主席、民主党人根斯勒（Gary Gensler）及其前任杰伊·克莱顿（Jay Clayton）因担心投资者保护问题和市场操纵的可能性一直拒绝推出此类产品。</p><p>然而，<strong>自去年8月份SEC在与加密资产管理公司灰度投资</strong>（Grayscale Investments）<strong>的一场关键法律诉讼中失利以来，人们一直在猜测，该监管机构将不得不默许这些产品的推出。</strong></p><p>市场对监管机构即将批准比特币交易的押注，推动比特币价格去年飙升了约160%，但其仍未回到2021年11月创下的历史新高，当时比特币达到近6.9万美元。</p><p>目前，<strong>市场对于比特币现货ETF即将获批的预期相当高，资产管理公司之间更是提前爆发了一场“费用战”</strong>。</p><p>贝莱德周一在一份监管申报文件中表示，其收取的费用仅为净资产的0.3%，第一年收取0.2%，直至其ETF规模达到50亿美元。</p><p>作为回应，ARK将计划中的费用从0.8%降至0.25%，并表示将在前6个月或达成10亿美元规模期间完全免除费用。Grayscale计划将其费率从2%降至1.5%。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>数十亿美元一触即发！比特币即将面临“生死局”？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n数十亿美元一触即发！比特币即将面临“生死局”？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-08 23:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=130148&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>加密货币领域的“分水岭时刻”将至！周一，贝莱德、方舟（ARK）和其他几家在美国直接投资比特币的交易所交易基金（ETF）潜在发行人向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了修改后的申请表格。富达、景顺、Galaxy Digital和WisdomTree等公司也向SEC会提交了修改后的S-1文件。监管机构必须在当地时间1月10日之前对其中至少一项申请采取行动，加密货币业内人士猜测，监管机构将利用这一日期立即...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=130148&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c8ca0a895613684fb4139698cc112a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=130148&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2401295279","content_text":"加密货币领域的“分水岭时刻”将至！周一，贝莱德、方舟（ARK）和其他几家在美国直接投资比特币的交易所交易基金（ETF）潜在发行人向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了修改后的申请表格。富达、景顺、Galaxy Digital和WisdomTree等公司也向SEC会提交了修改后的S-1文件。监管机构必须在当地时间1月10日之前对其中至少一项申请采取行动，加密货币业内人士猜测，监管机构将利用这一日期立即宣布一系列决定。在各资管提交修订文件的消息传出后，比特币扭转了早些时候的跌势，并重回45000美元上方。在比特币现货ETF开始交易之前，必须满足两个技术要求。首先，SEC必须在ETF上市交易所提交的所谓19b-4文件上签字，其次，监管机构必须批准相关的S-1表格，这是潜在发行人的注册申请。据外媒报道，SEC计划在未来几天对两家交易所提交的19b-4文件进行投票表决。监管机构可能会，也可能不会在大约同一时间对发行人的S-1申请采取行动。如果SEC批准了这两项要求，比特币现货ETF最早可能在下一个交易日开始交易。SEC的一名代表早些时候拒绝就申请的状况置评。加密货币的“分水岭时刻”！比特币的支持者表示，由最大的加密代币支持的ETF将代表数字货币资产的“分水岭时刻”。数十亿美元的市场资金正“蠢蠢欲动”。消息人士透露称，若成功上市，贝莱德现货ETF上市首周或将有超过20亿美元的资金流入。加密风险投资公司Framework Ventures的联合创始Michael Anderson表示，“市场仍然严重低估了比特币ETF获批的潜在影响。”现SEC主席、民主党人根斯勒（Gary Gensler）及其前任杰伊·克莱顿（Jay Clayton）因担心投资者保护问题和市场操纵的可能性一直拒绝推出此类产品。然而，自去年8月份SEC在与加密资产管理公司灰度投资（Grayscale Investments）的一场关键法律诉讼中失利以来，人们一直在猜测，该监管机构将不得不默许这些产品的推出。市场对监管机构即将批准比特币交易的押注，推动比特币价格去年飙升了约160%，但其仍未回到2021年11月创下的历史新高，当时比特币达到近6.9万美元。目前，市场对于比特币现货ETF即将获批的预期相当高，资产管理公司之间更是提前爆发了一场“费用战”。贝莱德周一在一份监管申报文件中表示，其收取的费用仅为净资产的0.3%，第一年收取0.2%，直至其ETF规模达到50亿美元。作为回应，ARK将计划中的费用从0.8%降至0.25%，并表示将在前6个月或达成10亿美元规模期间完全免除费用。Grayscale计划将其费率从2%降至1.5%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":216640502132976,"gmtCreate":1693924110008,"gmtModify":1693924111785,"author":{"id":"4100146025993970","authorId":"4100146025993970","name":"进强VVvv","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8904ac11360c90c6203d0e97d460a8df","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100146025993970","authorIdStr":"4100146025993970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"节日又回来了，快乐也回来了，快乐的日子怎可缺了甜蜜的点缀？继续看好好时！","listText":"节日又回来了，快乐也回来了，快乐的日子怎可缺了甜蜜的点缀？继续看好好时！","text":"节日又回来了，快乐也回来了，快乐的日子怎可缺了甜蜜的点缀？继续看好好时！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/216640502132976","repostId":"2363859202","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2363859202","pubTimestamp":1693413342,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2363859202?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-31 00:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Hershey Company: This Iconic Stock Looks Overvalued","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2363859202","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Hershey's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last year and is struggling.I believe the company relies on unsustainable price increases and has likely reached a saturation point in North Ame","content":"<html><body><ul><li>Hershey's stock has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 over the last year and is struggling.</li><li>I believe the company relies on unsustainable price increases and has likely reached a saturation point in North American markets.</li><li>Hershey's is significantly overvalued and expected to have slow earnings growth in the coming years.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img height=\"2000px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"3000px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Scott Olson</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Iconic corporations don't always make good investments. Markets usually require investors to pay up for premium companies, and many well-known brands eventually reach a point of saturation. Often times, the valuation of some of even the best companies is too high to<span> justify investing in these stocks.</span></p> <p>One of the most well-known brands in the United States is the Hershey (<span>NYSE:HSY</span>) company. This company owns the Hershey's brand, Reese's, Kit-Kat, Twizzlers, Milk Duds, York Peppermint Patties, Whoppers, Rolos, Lilly's low-sugar chocolates, and IceBreakers brands.</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/29/saupload_8b38b515b50669ac40ebe7cdb54e5aa7.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>Hershey's stock has offered investor total returns of 199.73% over the last decade. The S&amp;P 500 has offered investors total returns of 220% during the same time period.</p> <p>Still, this iconic company has struggled over the last year.</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/29/saupload_f8db53d2c8edc94573126d30c1d1a64a.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>Hershey's is down 4.34% over the last year, while the S&amp;P 500<span> is up 9.97% during this same time period.</span></p> <p>Today, I am initiating a rating of sell for Hershey's stock. I think the company is relying on unsustainable price increases even while sales volume is slowing. Hershey's is also heavily reliant on North American markets where the company's brands have likely reached a saturation point, and the company's margins look unsustainable at current levels. The stock also looks overvalued using several metrics.</p> <p>Hershey's recent second quarter earnings reports showed how reliant the company is on what likely have been unsustainable price increases to drive earnings per share growth. The company recently reported earnings per share using GAAP of $1.98, and revenues of $2.49 billion. The chocolate maker beat earnings per share estimates by $.10, and missed on revenues by $9.68 million. Management reported that organic constant currency net sales increased by 5% year-over-year, and earnings per share rose by 11.7%. The company also raised guidance by saying the chocolate maker expects earnings to grow by 13-15% in 2023.</p> <p>The company's earnings report looked solid at face value, but there were several warning signs that should be concerning to investors.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/29/4963331-16933342958511362.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>An excerpt from Hershey's second quarter earnings report (prnewswire)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Hershey's relied heavily on price increases to grow revenues in the company's core North American chocolate business, and management has been doing that for 2 years now. Sales volume in this segment fell by 3.6%, but price increases of 8.4% offset the slowing purchases of the company's products in this division. Sales volume was also negative in the North American salty snack division. While the company did see some marginal sales volume growth internationally, 90% of the company's revenues comes from North America, and barely over 10% of the company's revenues come from the salty snack division. Hershey's is still mostly a North American chocolate company, and has over 45% market share of the chocolate industry in North America. This core segment of the business appears to have reached a point of saturation in this key market.</p> <p>The company's current net margin of 16.48%, which is near a decade high, also seems unsustainable for multiple reasons.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/29/4963331-16933350848329716.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>A chart of Hershey's net margins (Macrotrends)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Hershey's is planning to spend between $800 billion to $850 billion, with a focus on expanding digital sales of the domestic chocolate business. The labor costs also are not likely to fall, with shortages in the job market continuing to be an issue nationwide. The company raised prices by 14% in 2022 alone, and management has increased prices 20% in the last 2 years combined. Cocoa and sugar prices are also both at very high levels right now, with cocoa prices recently hitting a 46-year-high, and sugar prices at near decade highs.</p> <p>This is also why Hershey's looks overvalued at current levels using multiple metrics. The company currently trades at 22.81x expected forward earnings, 4.39x forecasted forward sales, and 15.99x likely forward EBITDA. The industry average valuation is 18.47x expected forward earnings, 1.72x predicted forward sales, and 11.36x forward EBITDA. While Hershey's is trading below the company's average 5-year valuation, analysts are also expecting the Chocolate maker's earnings growth to slow significantly in coming years. Food companies such as General Mills (GIS) are trading at more a reasonable 15x expected forward earnings, even though analysts are forecasting similar mid-single digit growth for this other well-known company.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/8/29/4963331-16933357978178418.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>A chart showing forecasts for Hershey's earnings (Seeking Alpha)</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Hershey's is expected to grow earnings at just 4-6% from 2024 to 2027, and even though the company's business model has proven to be recession resistant, the current yield of just 2% despite the payout ratio being nearly 50% suggests that this company will likely offer minimal income or total returns over the next several years. Hershey's has operating free cash flow of $2.26 billion, and levered free cash flow of $1.15 billion, but the company also has $5.28 billion in debt, so management won't likely be able to continue to borrow to increase the dividend at a double-digit rate as the chocolate maker did last year with rates higher now, in my opinion.</p> <p>Hershey's market share of 45% in the North American chocolate industry looks to be at a point of saturation. Still, the company could potentially beat analyst expectations moving forward if the company were to be able to grow the smaller salty snack business out, or if management could accelerate the company's still fairly minimal international earnings. Hershey's international sales are under $1 billion right now, and the company's salty snack division remains less than 15% of overall revenues at nearly $1.2 billion. This scenario doesn't seem likely, though.</p> <div></div> <p>Iconic companies don't always make good investments. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and General Electric (GE) are two more recent examples of companies that have consistently underperformed the broader indexes for years. While Hershey's has achieved an impressive 45% market share in the North American Chocolate market, there isn't strong room for growth in this key region, and the company can't keep raising prices by 20% every 2 years in my view. While Hershey's has been one of the better performing stocks in the market for several decades, I believe this company's best days are likely in the past.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Hershey Company: This Iconic Stock Looks Overvalued</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Hershey Company: This Iconic Stock Looks Overvalued\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-31 00:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632054-the-hershey-company-iconic-stock-looks-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hershey's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last year and is struggling.I believe the company relies on unsustainable price increases and has likely reached a saturation point in North ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632054-the-hershey-company-iconic-stock-looks-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/452235886/image_452235886.jpg","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632054-the-hershey-company-iconic-stock-looks-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2363859202","content_text":"Hershey's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the last year and is struggling.I believe the company relies on unsustainable price increases and has likely reached a saturation point in North American markets.Hershey's is significantly overvalued and expected to have slow earnings growth in the coming years.Scott Olson Iconic corporations don't always make good investments. Markets usually require investors to pay up for premium companies, and many well-known brands eventually reach a point of saturation. Often times, the valuation of some of even the best companies is too high to justify investing in these stocks. One of the most well-known brands in the United States is the Hershey (NYSE:HSY) company. This company owns the Hershey's brand, Reese's, Kit-Kat, Twizzlers, Milk Duds, York Peppermint Patties, Whoppers, Rolos, Lilly's low-sugar chocolates, and IceBreakers brands. Data by YCharts Hershey's stock has offered investor total returns of 199.73% over the last decade. The S&P 500 has offered investors total returns of 220% during the same time period. Still, this iconic company has struggled over the last year. Data by YCharts Hershey's is down 4.34% over the last year, while the S&P 500 is up 9.97% during this same time period. Today, I am initiating a rating of sell for Hershey's stock. I think the company is relying on unsustainable price increases even while sales volume is slowing. Hershey's is also heavily reliant on North American markets where the company's brands have likely reached a saturation point, and the company's margins look unsustainable at current levels. The stock also looks overvalued using several metrics. Hershey's recent second quarter earnings reports showed how reliant the company is on what likely have been unsustainable price increases to drive earnings per share growth. The company recently reported earnings per share using GAAP of $1.98, and revenues of $2.49 billion. The chocolate maker beat earnings per share estimates by $.10, and missed on revenues by $9.68 million. Management reported that organic constant currency net sales increased by 5% year-over-year, and earnings per share rose by 11.7%. The company also raised guidance by saying the chocolate maker expects earnings to grow by 13-15% in 2023. The company's earnings report looked solid at face value, but there were several warning signs that should be concerning to investors. An excerpt from Hershey's second quarter earnings report (prnewswire) Hershey's relied heavily on price increases to grow revenues in the company's core North American chocolate business, and management has been doing that for 2 years now. Sales volume in this segment fell by 3.6%, but price increases of 8.4% offset the slowing purchases of the company's products in this division. Sales volume was also negative in the North American salty snack division. While the company did see some marginal sales volume growth internationally, 90% of the company's revenues comes from North America, and barely over 10% of the company's revenues come from the salty snack division. Hershey's is still mostly a North American chocolate company, and has over 45% market share of the chocolate industry in North America. This core segment of the business appears to have reached a point of saturation in this key market. The company's current net margin of 16.48%, which is near a decade high, also seems unsustainable for multiple reasons. A chart of Hershey's net margins (Macrotrends) Hershey's is planning to spend between $800 billion to $850 billion, with a focus on expanding digital sales of the domestic chocolate business. The labor costs also are not likely to fall, with shortages in the job market continuing to be an issue nationwide. The company raised prices by 14% in 2022 alone, and management has increased prices 20% in the last 2 years combined. Cocoa and sugar prices are also both at very high levels right now, with cocoa prices recently hitting a 46-year-high, and sugar prices at near decade highs. This is also why Hershey's looks overvalued at current levels using multiple metrics. The company currently trades at 22.81x expected forward earnings, 4.39x forecasted forward sales, and 15.99x likely forward EBITDA. The industry average valuation is 18.47x expected forward earnings, 1.72x predicted forward sales, and 11.36x forward EBITDA. While Hershey's is trading below the company's average 5-year valuation, analysts are also expecting the Chocolate maker's earnings growth to slow significantly in coming years. Food companies such as General Mills (GIS) are trading at more a reasonable 15x expected forward earnings, even though analysts are forecasting similar mid-single digit growth for this other well-known company. A chart showing forecasts for Hershey's earnings (Seeking Alpha) Hershey's is expected to grow earnings at just 4-6% from 2024 to 2027, and even though the company's business model has proven to be recession resistant, the current yield of just 2% despite the payout ratio being nearly 50% suggests that this company will likely offer minimal income or total returns over the next several years. Hershey's has operating free cash flow of $2.26 billion, and levered free cash flow of $1.15 billion, but the company also has $5.28 billion in debt, so management won't likely be able to continue to borrow to increase the dividend at a double-digit rate as the chocolate maker did last year with rates higher now, in my opinion. Hershey's market share of 45% in the North American chocolate industry looks to be at a point of saturation. Still, the company could potentially beat analyst expectations moving forward if the company were to be able to grow the smaller salty snack business out, or if management could accelerate the company's still fairly minimal international earnings. Hershey's international sales are under $1 billion right now, and the company's salty snack division remains less than 15% of overall revenues at nearly $1.2 billion. This scenario doesn't seem likely, though.  Iconic companies don't always make good investments. Exxon Mobil (XOM) and General Electric (GE) are two more recent examples of companies that have consistently underperformed the broader indexes for years. While Hershey's has achieved an impressive 45% market share in the North American Chocolate market, there isn't strong room for growth in this key region, and the company can't keep raising prices by 20% every 2 years in my view. While Hershey's has been one of the better performing stocks in the market for several decades, I believe this company's best days are likely in the past.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":213897001443504,"gmtCreate":1693238976390,"gmtModify":1693238978092,"author":{"id":"4100146025993970","authorId":"4100146025993970","name":"进强VVvv","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8904ac11360c90c6203d0e97d460a8df","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100146025993970","authorIdStr":"4100146025993970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"稀巴烂公司，就是拉肚子也有止泻的时候啊","listText":"稀巴烂公司，就是拉肚子也有止泻的时候啊","text":"稀巴烂公司，就是拉肚子也有止泻的时候啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/213897001443504","repostId":"2362518514","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2362518514","pubTimestamp":1693015378,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2362518514?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-08-26 10:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"区块链技术公司Earlyworks上市：募资600美元 市值跌去70%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2362518514","media":"雷递网","summary":"日本区块链技术公司Earlyworks(Nasdaq: ELWS)日前在美国纳斯达克上市，发行价为5美元，发行120万股，募资总额为600万美元。","content":"<html><body><p><img image_type=\"1\" img_=\"\" mime_type=\"image/png\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aaff0d52d4d70fd29f0921722aefa79\" web_uri=\"tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/6407eb9700144c6eb0d92ad7d5d02dcf\"/></p><p><span>雷递网 乐天 8月26日</span></p><p>日本区块链技术公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ELWS\">Earlyworks</a>(Nasdaq: ELWS)日前在美国纳斯达克上市，发行价为5美元，发行120万股，募资总额为600万美元。</p><p><img image_type=\"1\" img_=\"\" mime_type=\"image/png\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0abce520f59bd4ac06d5d158cafbecac\" web_uri=\"tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/937ba01c69bb441e8fb507e84e5c6553\"/></p><p>Earlyworks日前在美国纳斯达克举办上市仪式，高管及员工还一起在纽约时代广场合影。</p><p><img image_type=\"1\" img_=\"\" mime_type=\"image/png\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b280d175e1ad79abf8d3296a020269f6\" web_uri=\"tos-cn-i-qvj2lq49k0/61b2021f1e164ad0bfe19e049b482857\"/></p><p><span>Earlyworks称，此次发行的收益将用于投资GLS和GLS系统开发套件（“SDK”）的研发、招募全球人才、加强内部公司治理体系以及投资从事基于区块链的产品和服务开发的业务。</span></p><p>截至今日收盘，Earlyworks股价为1.51美元，较发行价下跌70%；截至今日收盘，公司市值为2271万美元。</p><p><span><span>———————————————</span></span></p><p><span><span>雷递由媒体人雷建平创办，若转载请写明来源。</span></span></p></body></html>","source":"leinews_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>区块链技术公司Earlyworks上市：募资600美元 市值跌去70%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n区块链技术公司Earlyworks上市：募资600美元 市值跌去70%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-08-26 10:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.leinews.com/n24376/detail.html><strong>雷递网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>雷递网 乐天 8月26日日本区块链技术公司Earlyworks(Nasdaq: ELWS)日前在美国纳斯达克上市，发行价为5美元，发行120万股，募资总额为600万美元。Earlyworks日前在美国纳斯达克举办上市仪式，高管及员工还一起在纽约时代广场合影。Earlyworks称，此次发行的收益将用于投资GLS和GLS系统开发套件（“SDK”）的研发、招募全球人才、加强内部公司治理体系以及投资从事...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.leinews.com/n24376/detail.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://leidinews-1256465536.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/u_News/20230826/6382864097381796492627736.jpg","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.leinews.com/n24376/detail.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2362518514","content_text":"雷递网 乐天 8月26日日本区块链技术公司Earlyworks(Nasdaq: ELWS)日前在美国纳斯达克上市，发行价为5美元，发行120万股，募资总额为600万美元。Earlyworks日前在美国纳斯达克举办上市仪式，高管及员工还一起在纽约时代广场合影。Earlyworks称，此次发行的收益将用于投资GLS和GLS系统开发套件（“SDK”）的研发、招募全球人才、加强内部公司治理体系以及投资从事基于区块链的产品和服务开发的业务。截至今日收盘，Earlyworks股价为1.51美元，较发行价下跌70%；截至今日收盘，公司市值为2271万美元。———————————————雷递由媒体人雷建平创办，若转载请写明来源。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193977947230328,"gmtCreate":1688396843490,"gmtModify":1688396844791,"author":{"id":"4100146025993970","authorId":"4100146025993970","name":"进强VVvv","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8904ac11360c90c6203d0e97d460a8df","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100146025993970","authorIdStr":"4100146025993970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小试牛刀","listText":"小试牛刀","text":"小试牛刀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193977947230328","repostId":"2348688975","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2348688975","pubTimestamp":1688352521,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2348688975?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-03 10:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"踢开IPO大门，Keep投资价值几何？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2348688975","media":"格隆汇","summary":"长期来看，Keep仍具进化潜力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>长期来看，Keep仍具进化潜力。</blockquote><p><strong>运动科技第一股即将来临。</strong></p><p>6月30日，国内最大的在线健身平台Keep Inc.(下称“Keep”)启动招股，将在7月12日正式上市。根据港交所信息，Keep计划全球发售1083.9万股，其中国际发售975.5万股，公开发售108.4万股，另有15%的超额配股权。</p><p>招股书显示，若以发行价中位数每股45.19（每股发售价区间28.92-61.46）港元计算，Keep本次募资净额为3.66亿港元，若超额配股权获悉数行使，则募资额为4.37亿港元。</p><p>笔者看来，此次IPO正值较好的时机，其自身也做好了更好的准备，恰恰是水到渠成。</p><p>简单来说，市场普遍预期港股IPO市场于下半年明显改善，资本市场情绪或迎反转，港股新股表现相对更值期待，加之历经疫情三年，健身领域得到价值再塑。同时，近年来Keep基本面持续优化，逐步打造<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>一体、软硬件融合的生态闭环，从社区向运动科技平台蜕变，对应增强了稀缺性及成长性等，实现内在价值升维。</p><p>长期来看，Keep仍具进化潜力。</p><p><strong>01、稀缺性突围巨头混战</strong></p><p>近年来，中国线上健身行业发展迅速，特别是疫情倒逼大众健身意识全面提升，加上“刘畊宏”等现象级IP出现引领新一轮热潮，带动健身行业格局向线上倾斜，使其发展机遇愈发明朗。但不可否认，这一行业的内部竞争也异常激烈，例如抖音、B站、小红书等纷纷抢滩内容领域，华为、小米、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>等多有布局硬件领域。</p><p>在这种情况下，企业的突围并不容易，而一旦突围则有望撬动更大的商业价值。</p><p>反观Keep，随着其向运动科技平台蜕变已走在这条路上。</p><p>很重要的一点是，Keep由此具备了明显的稀缺性优势，在行业中实现差异化竞争。</p><p><strong>相较于泛内容平台，Keep具备数据沉淀能力、定制增值服务和硬件实力，能够提供更完整的产品和服务</strong>。例如，Keep可以基于海量健身数据为用户提供个性化的健身方案和指导，或是通过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手环和其他智能设备提供硬件支持，使用户跟踪和管理自己的健身进程，为用户带来更优质的体验。</p><p><strong>相较于传统硬件厂商，Keep建立了完备的内容生态，以及对内容偏好具有更强的把控能力</strong>，更能满足用户的需求，提升用户体验及增强用户粘性。且值得一提的是，构建优质的内容体系通常并不是硬件“接入”型玩家所擅长的，同时相比多数软件模式，内容平台的经营更需要时间沉淀，竞争门槛较高，容易强者恒强。</p><p><strong>对比传统消费品牌而言，Keep具备科技基因，擅长用科技力赋能产品力</strong>。其已建立由尖端技术驱动的平台，通过专有的AI技术赋能开发自有品牌运动产品，且可以结合强大的数据沉淀能力更好地洞察用户需求，持续为用户带来优质产品和服务。一个较好的例子是Keep今年3月份发布的体感运动主机Keep Station。据悉，这款产品的配件K豆搭载了六轴传感器，可以记录用户移动方向和加速度变化，精准识别用户动作，从而为用户提供更多实时指导。</p><p>另从渠道和品牌来看，Keep本身是中国最大的线上健身平台，<strong>拥有垂直、精准流量的高势能渠道</strong>，可以高效匹配用户，实现销售转化；<strong>基于持续输出专业化内容，Keep逐渐沉淀专业化的品牌形象</strong>，与“健身”形成更强的品牌关联，在抢占消费者心智高地上具有优势，有望进一步拉开竞争距离。</p><p>再者，回到资本市场视角，Keep锁定“运动科技第一股”，其上市后有望借力资本加速释放这种稀缺性优势，进一步突围。结合上文描述亦可见，线上健身行业仍是充分竞争的互联网领域，决定头部企业的先发优势显著，上市后Keep的行业地位将更加强势，也将更有机会抢占市场。</p><p><strong>02、商业模式与价值跃迁</strong></p><p>更加聚焦Keep自身来看，上述趋势也揭示着Keep的商业模式趋向成熟。</p><p>整体上，Keep的业务边界从内容延伸到硬件并打通了场景，由此形成多条增长曲线：会员订阅及线上付费内容、自有品牌运动产品、广告及其他，其又共同构成了一个覆盖用户整个健身生命周期的闭环生态体系。</p><p>究其内里，Keep以多层次的优质内容和科技为抓手，迅速吸引广泛用户并将其沉淀在平台上，实现内容创收，聚集精准流量。例如，在课程设计上，Keep兼顾了专业性和大众性，并通过AI对各种健身模组排列组合，形成匹配个人的健身计划，从而帮助用户降低运动门槛，赋予用户良好体验，提升用户需求和付费意愿。</p><p>在此基础之上，<strong>Keep瞄准居家健身场景逐步切入硬件领域，例如研发Keep跑步机、动感单车，为用户提供软硬件交互的健身体验</strong>，进一步解决用户时间碎片化、缺乏专业健身场地的痛点，并推出配套运动产品包括健身装备、服饰、食品等，全面覆盖用户“吃穿用练”的需求。</p><p>商业的层面，Keep打通内容与硬件后提升业务协同效应，硬件本身作为一种高转化和高留存的流量入口，有望反哺线上内容端。Peloton也用数据证明了硬件的入口价值。同时，中国用户天然对硬件的付费意愿度更强，且个性化、专业化健身需求日益凸显，使上述业务即自有品牌运动产品业务成为重要的盈利点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8feb033c8e06af96b08c842c1095ea5e\" tg-width=\"736\" tg-height=\"699\"/></p><p>还值得一提的是，Keep还通过自营Keepland健身中心及与第三方合作推出精选健身课程，补齐家庭场景之外的健身场景，进一步提升用户参与度，创造更多交叉销售的机会。同时，Keep还在挖掘更多新增长点，比如通过智能化提升用户的增值服务，依托虚拟体育赛事开启奖牌业务，持续纵深健身生态布局。</p><p>更直观的，几组数据亦在一定意义上检验Keep商业模式的逐渐成熟。</p><p>2019至2022年以及2023年第一季度，Keep收入始终保持增长，非国际财务报告准则下，其第一季度经调整后净亏损金额明显收窄。</p><p>用户运营数据上，2019至2022年Keep的平均月活跃用户、平均月度订阅用户及平均月度运动产品客户均保持增势。2023年一季度或受疫情初步放开扰动而有所下滑，但每名月活跃用户的季度平均年支出显著提升。进入四月后，月活数据回升，运营指标已经回到了正常水平。</p><p>并且，<strong>具体到自有品牌运动产品来看，Keep的商业化已经小有成就，在一些品类占据不俗市场地位</strong>。keep智能单车为例，截至2022年，按累计单车销售的商品交易总量计，其在智能单车的销量排名中国第一。瑜伽垫品类为例，按商品交易总量计，其是2022年中国最大的瑜伽垫品牌，市场份额为18.3%。</p><p>有鉴于上述，相信未来Keep的收入及盈利基础均有望逐步向好，从根本上增强其可持续发展能力。同样，也使Keep有望从中创造更高的价值。</p><p><strong>03、赛道空间还将翻倍</strong></p><p>最后，还值得一提的是，Keep背靠的线上健身仍处于成长爆发期。</p><p>中国健身发展及服务水平偏低，传统健身模式为初学者设置了较高的进入门槛包括课程较昂贵、时间及地点受限等，且在中国低线城市不易获得。相比之下，线上健身更能满足<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>健身需求。同时，大众的线上健身意识已形成，这种习惯的改变不可逆转。</p><p>反映在数据上也可以看到，<strong>线上健身市场才是中国健身市场的主要增量所在</strong>。</p><p>根据灼识咨询，中国健身市场规模预计在2027年突破2万亿元，完成翻倍增长。<strong>其中，线上健身市场的占比将逐年提高，预计在2027年达约61.8%，2022至2017年的复合年增长率远超线下，高达23.1%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fb0c0f9d93d1c8b4c789f99c0909381\" tg-width=\"868\" tg-height=\"531\"/></p><p>这在一定程度上决定，当下的在线健身头部企业更具商业潜力和价值。看回Keep，其已为把握这一市场机遇做好诸多准备，未来有望释放更大的成长势能。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>踢开IPO大门，Keep投资价值几何？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n踢开IPO大门，Keep投资价值几何？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-03 10:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/618898><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>长期来看，Keep仍具进化潜力。运动科技第一股即将来临。6月30日，国内最大的在线健身平台Keep Inc.(下称“Keep”)启动招股，将在7月12日正式上市。根据港交所信息，Keep计划全球发售1083.9万股，其中国际发售975.5万股，公开发售108.4万股，另有15%的超额配股权。招股书显示，若以发行价中位数每股45.19（每股发售价区间28.92-61.46）港元计算，Keep本次募资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/618898\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c2861c47d4a9e1a2cd9ced568674d33","relate_stocks":{"03650":"KEEP"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/618898","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2348688975","content_text":"长期来看，Keep仍具进化潜力。运动科技第一股即将来临。6月30日，国内最大的在线健身平台Keep Inc.(下称“Keep”)启动招股，将在7月12日正式上市。根据港交所信息，Keep计划全球发售1083.9万股，其中国际发售975.5万股，公开发售108.4万股，另有15%的超额配股权。招股书显示，若以发行价中位数每股45.19（每股发售价区间28.92-61.46）港元计算，Keep本次募资净额为3.66亿港元，若超额配股权获悉数行使，则募资额为4.37亿港元。笔者看来，此次IPO正值较好的时机，其自身也做好了更好的准备，恰恰是水到渠成。简单来说，市场普遍预期港股IPO市场于下半年明显改善，资本市场情绪或迎反转，港股新股表现相对更值期待，加之历经疫情三年，健身领域得到价值再塑。同时，近年来Keep基本面持续优化，逐步打造线上线下一体、软硬件融合的生态闭环，从社区向运动科技平台蜕变，对应增强了稀缺性及成长性等，实现内在价值升维。长期来看，Keep仍具进化潜力。01、稀缺性突围巨头混战近年来，中国线上健身行业发展迅速，特别是疫情倒逼大众健身意识全面提升，加上“刘畊宏”等现象级IP出现引领新一轮热潮，带动健身行业格局向线上倾斜，使其发展机遇愈发明朗。但不可否认，这一行业的内部竞争也异常激烈，例如抖音、B站、小红书等纷纷抢滩内容领域，华为、小米、苹果等多有布局硬件领域。在这种情况下，企业的突围并不容易，而一旦突围则有望撬动更大的商业价值。反观Keep，随着其向运动科技平台蜕变已走在这条路上。很重要的一点是，Keep由此具备了明显的稀缺性优势，在行业中实现差异化竞争。相较于泛内容平台，Keep具备数据沉淀能力、定制增值服务和硬件实力，能够提供更完整的产品和服务。例如，Keep可以基于海量健身数据为用户提供个性化的健身方案和指导，或是通过智能手环和其他智能设备提供硬件支持，使用户跟踪和管理自己的健身进程，为用户带来更优质的体验。相较于传统硬件厂商，Keep建立了完备的内容生态，以及对内容偏好具有更强的把控能力，更能满足用户的需求，提升用户体验及增强用户粘性。且值得一提的是，构建优质的内容体系通常并不是硬件“接入”型玩家所擅长的，同时相比多数软件模式，内容平台的经营更需要时间沉淀，竞争门槛较高，容易强者恒强。对比传统消费品牌而言，Keep具备科技基因，擅长用科技力赋能产品力。其已建立由尖端技术驱动的平台，通过专有的AI技术赋能开发自有品牌运动产品，且可以结合强大的数据沉淀能力更好地洞察用户需求，持续为用户带来优质产品和服务。一个较好的例子是Keep今年3月份发布的体感运动主机Keep Station。据悉，这款产品的配件K豆搭载了六轴传感器，可以记录用户移动方向和加速度变化，精准识别用户动作，从而为用户提供更多实时指导。另从渠道和品牌来看，Keep本身是中国最大的线上健身平台，拥有垂直、精准流量的高势能渠道，可以高效匹配用户，实现销售转化；基于持续输出专业化内容，Keep逐渐沉淀专业化的品牌形象，与“健身”形成更强的品牌关联，在抢占消费者心智高地上具有优势，有望进一步拉开竞争距离。再者，回到资本市场视角，Keep锁定“运动科技第一股”，其上市后有望借力资本加速释放这种稀缺性优势，进一步突围。结合上文描述亦可见，线上健身行业仍是充分竞争的互联网领域，决定头部企业的先发优势显著，上市后Keep的行业地位将更加强势，也将更有机会抢占市场。02、商业模式与价值跃迁更加聚焦Keep自身来看，上述趋势也揭示着Keep的商业模式趋向成熟。整体上，Keep的业务边界从内容延伸到硬件并打通了场景，由此形成多条增长曲线：会员订阅及线上付费内容、自有品牌运动产品、广告及其他，其又共同构成了一个覆盖用户整个健身生命周期的闭环生态体系。究其内里，Keep以多层次的优质内容和科技为抓手，迅速吸引广泛用户并将其沉淀在平台上，实现内容创收，聚集精准流量。例如，在课程设计上，Keep兼顾了专业性和大众性，并通过AI对各种健身模组排列组合，形成匹配个人的健身计划，从而帮助用户降低运动门槛，赋予用户良好体验，提升用户需求和付费意愿。在此基础之上，Keep瞄准居家健身场景逐步切入硬件领域，例如研发Keep跑步机、动感单车，为用户提供软硬件交互的健身体验，进一步解决用户时间碎片化、缺乏专业健身场地的痛点，并推出配套运动产品包括健身装备、服饰、食品等，全面覆盖用户“吃穿用练”的需求。商业的层面，Keep打通内容与硬件后提升业务协同效应，硬件本身作为一种高转化和高留存的流量入口，有望反哺线上内容端。Peloton也用数据证明了硬件的入口价值。同时，中国用户天然对硬件的付费意愿度更强，且个性化、专业化健身需求日益凸显，使上述业务即自有品牌运动产品业务成为重要的盈利点。还值得一提的是，Keep还通过自营Keepland健身中心及与第三方合作推出精选健身课程，补齐家庭场景之外的健身场景，进一步提升用户参与度，创造更多交叉销售的机会。同时，Keep还在挖掘更多新增长点，比如通过智能化提升用户的增值服务，依托虚拟体育赛事开启奖牌业务，持续纵深健身生态布局。更直观的，几组数据亦在一定意义上检验Keep商业模式的逐渐成熟。2019至2022年以及2023年第一季度，Keep收入始终保持增长，非国际财务报告准则下，其第一季度经调整后净亏损金额明显收窄。用户运营数据上，2019至2022年Keep的平均月活跃用户、平均月度订阅用户及平均月度运动产品客户均保持增势。2023年一季度或受疫情初步放开扰动而有所下滑，但每名月活跃用户的季度平均年支出显著提升。进入四月后，月活数据回升，运营指标已经回到了正常水平。并且，具体到自有品牌运动产品来看，Keep的商业化已经小有成就，在一些品类占据不俗市场地位。keep智能单车为例，截至2022年，按累计单车销售的商品交易总量计，其在智能单车的销量排名中国第一。瑜伽垫品类为例，按商品交易总量计，其是2022年中国最大的瑜伽垫品牌，市场份额为18.3%。有鉴于上述，相信未来Keep的收入及盈利基础均有望逐步向好，从根本上增强其可持续发展能力。同样，也使Keep有望从中创造更高的价值。03、赛道空间还将翻倍最后，还值得一提的是，Keep背靠的线上健身仍处于成长爆发期。中国健身发展及服务水平偏低，传统健身模式为初学者设置了较高的进入门槛包括课程较昂贵、时间及地点受限等，且在中国低线城市不易获得。相比之下，线上健身更能满足全民健身需求。同时，大众的线上健身意识已形成，这种习惯的改变不可逆转。反映在数据上也可以看到，线上健身市场才是中国健身市场的主要增量所在。根据灼识咨询，中国健身市场规模预计在2027年突破2万亿元，完成翻倍增长。其中，线上健身市场的占比将逐年提高，预计在2027年达约61.8%，2022至2017年的复合年增长率远超线下，高达23.1%。这在一定程度上决定，当下的在线健身头部企业更具商业潜力和价值。看回Keep，其已为把握这一市场机遇做好诸多准备，未来有望释放更大的成长势能。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189561772425384,"gmtCreate":1687305145838,"gmtModify":1687305147284,"author":{"id":"4100146025993970","authorId":"4100146025993970","name":"进强VVvv","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8904ac11360c90c6203d0e97d460a8df","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100146025993970","authorIdStr":"4100146025993970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"该","listText":"该","text":"该","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189561772425384","repostId":"2345748263","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2345748263","pubTimestamp":1687303279,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2345748263?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-21 07:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美股空头损失惨重，1200亿美元灰飞烟灭，做空英伟达亏光本金","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2345748263","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"据S3 Partners的数据，按当前市值计价，卖空者今年损失了大约1200亿美元，其中仅6月的前半个月，就损失了720亿美元。特斯拉在6月8日超越苹果，成为做空规模最高的股票。押注错误的特斯拉空头损失了78%，资金损失规模124亿美元。英伟达空头损失了105%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>据S3 Partners的数据，按当前市值计价，卖空者今年损失了大约1200亿美元，其中仅6月的前半个月，就损失了720亿美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在6月8日超越<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>，成为做空规模最高的股票。押注错误的特斯拉空头损失了78%，资金损失规模124亿美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>空头损失了105%。</blockquote><p>伴随着美股近几个月的持续反弹，股市空头们伤的很重。<strong>据S3 Partners的数据，按当前市值计价，卖空者今年损失了大约1200亿美元，其中仅6月的前半个月，就损失了720亿美元。</strong></p><p>美国市场6月的总空仓规模突破1万亿美元，创下2022年4月以来的最高水平，约占所有可交易股票的5%。年初时的总空仓规模为8630亿美元。</p><p><strong>投资者最踊跃做空的股票，也是市场上最热门的股票，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>。</strong>特斯拉在6月8日超越苹果，成为做空规模最高的股票，其空仓规模占可供交易股份的比例达到3.3%。</p><p><strong>特斯拉股价今年以来暴涨了约120%，英伟达股价今年以来暴涨近200%。其他三只股票今年至少上涨了40%。押注错误的特斯拉空头损失了78%，资金损失规模124亿美元。英伟达空头损失了105%。</strong>卖空者的潜在损失理论上说是无限的，因为他们最初卖空的股票，需要之后买回。</p><p><strong>当前市场还呈现的一个特点是，越来越多的投资者使用ETF来做空市场，因为ETF的借入费用很低。</strong>截至5月底，投资者做空了价值约2350亿美元的ETF。</p><p>不过做空ETF并不意味着是看空市场。投资者可能是做多一个板块里的多只股票，同时做空ETF进行对冲。还有的做空ETF是做空反向ETF，也就是说实际上也是做多股市。做空SQQQ（提供三倍于纳斯达克100指数的反向回报）和SOXS（三倍做空半导体ETF）都是常见的操作。</p><p>上述做空操作，大部分是由对冲基金和其他机构投资者进行的，凸显他们对市场大涨的不安。仅个别股票享有股价大涨的盛宴、估值过高以及美联储还要进一步加息的可能性，是这些投资者的主要担忧。此外一些投资者增加了头寸，包括多仓和空仓两个方向的头寸，希望在错过年初的股市涨势后有所追赶。</p><p>有分析指出，对于空头来说，更多的痛苦可能还未到来。当前许多机构都在增加美国股市的头寸，推动股价上涨。市场越涨，那些观望的人们就越要想办法重新入市。</p><p>也有不少华尔街顶级分析师或者基金经理给空头“打气”。“新债王”Jeffrey Gundlach近日表示，股市正显示出狂热的迹象。这感觉很像2022年1月4日之前的情况。有很多空头，有很多悲观情绪，然后出现了人们预期的那种回撤。</p><p>在2022年全部预测对了市场走势，被誉为“华尔街最准分析师”的美银Michael Hartnett认为，美股难逃大跌，当前就如2000年和2008年，暴涨之后将是暴跌。Hartnett今年对美股的判断并不准确，他剖析了自己被“打脸”的三大原因，分别是美国经济没有衰退、信贷没有紧缩、人工智能牛市。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股空头损失惨重，1200亿美元灰飞烟灭，做空英伟达亏光本金</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股空头损失惨重，1200亿美元灰飞烟灭，做空英伟达亏光本金\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-21 07:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691602><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据S3 Partners的数据，按当前市值计价，卖空者今年损失了大约1200亿美元，其中仅6月的前半个月，就损失了720亿美元。特斯拉在6月8日超越苹果，成为做空规模最高的股票。押注错误的特斯拉空头损失了78%，资金损失规模124亿美元。英伟达空头损失了105%。伴随着美股近几个月的持续反弹，股市空头们伤的很重。据S3 Partners的数据，按当前市值计价，卖空者今年损失了大约1200亿美元，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691602\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c03e323df64e851c26ce5b5cdce8ee","relate_stocks":{"LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc 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Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4529":"IDC概念","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691602","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2345748263","content_text":"据S3 Partners的数据，按当前市值计价，卖空者今年损失了大约1200亿美元，其中仅6月的前半个月，就损失了720亿美元。特斯拉在6月8日超越苹果，成为做空规模最高的股票。押注错误的特斯拉空头损失了78%，资金损失规模124亿美元。英伟达空头损失了105%。伴随着美股近几个月的持续反弹，股市空头们伤的很重。据S3 Partners的数据，按当前市值计价，卖空者今年损失了大约1200亿美元，其中仅6月的前半个月，就损失了720亿美元。美国市场6月的总空仓规模突破1万亿美元，创下2022年4月以来的最高水平，约占所有可交易股票的5%。年初时的总空仓规模为8630亿美元。投资者最踊跃做空的股票，也是市场上最热门的股票，包括特斯拉、苹果、微软、英伟达和亚马逊。特斯拉在6月8日超越苹果，成为做空规模最高的股票，其空仓规模占可供交易股份的比例达到3.3%。特斯拉股价今年以来暴涨了约120%，英伟达股价今年以来暴涨近200%。其他三只股票今年至少上涨了40%。押注错误的特斯拉空头损失了78%，资金损失规模124亿美元。英伟达空头损失了105%。卖空者的潜在损失理论上说是无限的，因为他们最初卖空的股票，需要之后买回。当前市场还呈现的一个特点是，越来越多的投资者使用ETF来做空市场，因为ETF的借入费用很低。截至5月底，投资者做空了价值约2350亿美元的ETF。不过做空ETF并不意味着是看空市场。投资者可能是做多一个板块里的多只股票，同时做空ETF进行对冲。还有的做空ETF是做空反向ETF，也就是说实际上也是做多股市。做空SQQQ（提供三倍于纳斯达克100指数的反向回报）和SOXS（三倍做空半导体ETF）都是常见的操作。上述做空操作，大部分是由对冲基金和其他机构投资者进行的，凸显他们对市场大涨的不安。仅个别股票享有股价大涨的盛宴、估值过高以及美联储还要进一步加息的可能性，是这些投资者的主要担忧。此外一些投资者增加了头寸，包括多仓和空仓两个方向的头寸，希望在错过年初的股市涨势后有所追赶。有分析指出，对于空头来说，更多的痛苦可能还未到来。当前许多机构都在增加美国股市的头寸，推动股价上涨。市场越涨，那些观望的人们就越要想办法重新入市。也有不少华尔街顶级分析师或者基金经理给空头“打气”。“新债王”Jeffrey Gundlach近日表示，股市正显示出狂热的迹象。这感觉很像2022年1月4日之前的情况。有很多空头，有很多悲观情绪，然后出现了人们预期的那种回撤。在2022年全部预测对了市场走势，被誉为“华尔街最准分析师”的美银Michael Hartnett认为，美股难逃大跌，当前就如2000年和2008年，暴涨之后将是暴跌。Hartnett今年对美股的判断并不准确，他剖析了自己被“打脸”的三大原因，分别是美国经济没有衰退、信贷没有紧缩、人工智能牛市。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}