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2021-07-28

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2021-07-21

Great

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2021-07-12

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2021-10-04

Nice

Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?

2021-07-11

Hello

The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.

2021-12-03

Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice

Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?

2021-07-26

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Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.

2021-07-13

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How earnings season is likely to play out in the coming weeks and its impact on the stock market

2021-07-27

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Breaking Down The Pandemic's Lingering Impact On Market Sectors

2021-07-16

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2021-07-07

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2021-12-12

Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//

Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?

2021-12-11

Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//

Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?

2021-09-23

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@股市专家:Help me like

2021-07-02

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The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.

2021-07-11

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White House to target bank mergers, financial data with competition order

2021-12-20

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@B.God:$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.

2021-12-19

Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice

@B.God:$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.

2021-12-19

Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice

@B.God:$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.

2021-12-17

Nice//@股市专家:Nice

@B.God:$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.

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Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604581184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699523897,"gmtCreate":1639843262119,"gmtModify":1639843262270,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699523897","repostId":"604581184","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":604581184,"gmtCreate":1639411601232,"gmtModify":1639443582112,"author":{"id":"3574968450404111","authorId":"3574968450404111","name":"B.God","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fba96cdefc2640a0413c00996aed28d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574968450404111","idStr":"3574968450404111"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604581184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699326937,"gmtCreate":1639751536729,"gmtModify":1639751541755,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699326937","repostId":"604581184","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":604581184,"gmtCreate":1639411601232,"gmtModify":1639443582112,"author":{"id":"3574968450404111","authorId":"3574968450404111","name":"B.God","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fba96cdefc2640a0413c00996aed28d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574968450404111","idStr":"3574968450404111"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604581184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690291463,"gmtCreate":1639667670552,"gmtModify":1639667670719,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690291463","repostId":"604581184","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":604581184,"gmtCreate":1639411601232,"gmtModify":1639443582112,"author":{"id":"3574968450404111","authorId":"3574968450404111","name":"B.God","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fba96cdefc2640a0413c00996aed28d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574968450404111","idStr":"3574968450404111"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604581184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690208515,"gmtCreate":1639667175237,"gmtModify":1639667175333,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NicE","listText":"NicE","text":"NicE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690208515","repostId":"690965447","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":690965447,"gmtCreate":1639622982540,"gmtModify":1639624060493,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667596890271","idStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🔥【12月16日】暗示明年加息3次，美股上演V型反转，今天买点啥？","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 12月16日讯，港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.57%，国指跌0.86%，恒生科技指数跌0.9%。 盘面上，大型科技股继续走弱，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 跌超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 跌超1%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 等多数下跌，燃气股集体低开，中国燃气，华润燃气均下跌；互联网医疗股、汽车股、餐饮股、地产股纷纷走低，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">$平安好医生(01833)$</a> 跌超3%；昨日重挫的生物医药类股多数反弹，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">$药明生物(02269)$</a> 高开逾1%，昨日大跌超19%，煤炭股个别走高，兖州煤业高开5.59%，重型机械刚、保险股普涨。 两只新股上市双双破发，","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 12月16日讯，港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.57%，国指跌0.86%，恒生科技指数跌0.9%。 盘面上，大型科技股继续走弱，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 跌超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 跌超1%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 等多数下跌，燃气股集体低开，中国燃气，华润燃气均下跌；互联网医疗股、汽车股、餐饮股、地产股纷纷走低，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">$平安好医生(01833)$</a> 跌超3%；昨日重挫的生物医药类股多数反弹，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">$药明生物(02269)$</a> 高开逾1%，昨日大跌超19%，煤炭股个别走高，兖州煤业高开5.59%，重型机械刚、保险股普涨。 两只新股上市双双破发，","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 12月16日讯，港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.57%，国指跌0.86%，恒生科技指数跌0.9%。 盘面上，大型科技股继续走弱，$京东集团-SW(09618)$ 跌超3%，$美团-W(03690)$ 、$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 跌超1%，$腾讯控股(00700)$ 、$小米集团-W(01810)$ 等多数下跌，燃气股集体低开，中国燃气，华润燃气均下跌；互联网医疗股、汽车股、餐饮股、地产股纷纷走低，$平安好医生(01833)$ 跌超3%；昨日重挫的生物医药类股多数反弹，$药明生物(02269)$ 高开逾1%，昨日大跌超19%，煤炭股个别走高，兖州煤业高开5.59%，重型机械刚、保险股普涨。 两只新股上市双双破发，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c224c9889536a14f83eca563ae0bb07","width":"666","height":"284"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690965447","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607875454,"gmtCreate":1639529156478,"gmtModify":1639529156608,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607875454","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607941183,"gmtCreate":1639480258642,"gmtModify":1639480258737,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607941183","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604071748,"gmtCreate":1639291045230,"gmtModify":1639291045323,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604071748","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605499583,"gmtCreate":1639205327842,"gmtModify":1639205328015,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605499583","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605651380,"gmtCreate":1639157063740,"gmtModify":1639157063848,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605651380","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605651904,"gmtCreate":1639157040729,"gmtModify":1639157040822,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605651904","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602243420,"gmtCreate":1639033159660,"gmtModify":1639033159802,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602243420","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602933497,"gmtCreate":1638954380419,"gmtModify":1638954380517,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602933497","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606532281,"gmtCreate":1638891235043,"gmtModify":1638891235137,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606532281","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606916964,"gmtCreate":1638808126158,"gmtModify":1638808126255,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606916964","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601290482,"gmtCreate":1638530541146,"gmtModify":1638530559610,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601290482","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603015209,"gmtCreate":1638338530801,"gmtModify":1638338530872,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603015209","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609136165,"gmtCreate":1638249644057,"gmtModify":1638249644125,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609136165","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":803494180,"gmtCreate":1627454493340,"gmtModify":1631893240207,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help me like","listText":"Help me like","text":"Help me like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":20,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803494180","repostId":"1107532514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176149725,"gmtCreate":1626874193567,"gmtModify":1631893240228,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176149725","repostId":"1107219983","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146650146,"gmtCreate":1626077850185,"gmtModify":1633930377735,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help me like pls","listText":"Help me like pls","text":"Help me like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146650146","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":820955641,"gmtCreate":1633345349541,"gmtModify":1633345349750,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820955641","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":148732425,"gmtCreate":1626015505267,"gmtModify":1633930904771,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hello","listText":"Hello","text":"Hello","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148732425","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p>\n<p>When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p>\n<p>It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p>\n<p>The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p>\n<p>That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p>\n<p>While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p>\n<p>Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p>\n<p>A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p>\n<p>“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p>\n<p>The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p>\n<p>Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p>\n<p>The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p>\n<p>Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p>\n<p>These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p>\n<p>To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p>\n<p>But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p>\n<p>“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p>\n<p>“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p>\n<p>Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p>\n<p>Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p>\n<p>But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p>\n<p>“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p>\n<p>The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p>\n<p>— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p>\n<p>It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p>\n<p>Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p>\n<p>With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p>\n<p>“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p>\n<p>Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p>\n<p>AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p>\n<p>Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p>\n<p>Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p>\n<p>In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p>\n<p>There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p>\n<p>For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p>\n<p>For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p>\n<p>New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p>\n<p>“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p>\n<p>Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p>\n<p>Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p>\n<p>The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p>\n<p>The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p>\n<p>Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p>\n<p>As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p>\n<p>To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p>\n<p>Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p>\n<p>Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p>\n<p>“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p>\n<p>“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p>\n<p>The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p>\n<p>Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p>\n<p>Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p>\n<p>In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p>\n<p>Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p>\n<p>Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-11 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","MRIN":"Marin Software Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","BBBY":"3B家居","AMC":"AMC院线","BB":"黑莓","SCHW":"嘉信理财","CARV":"卡弗储蓄"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":601290482,"gmtCreate":1638530541146,"gmtModify":1638530559610,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601290482","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800664507,"gmtCreate":1627299193109,"gmtModify":1631893240211,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do help like","listText":"Do help like","text":"Do help like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800664507","repostId":"1151724613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151724613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627292512,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151724613?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151724613","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe ","content":"<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.</p>\n<p>The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p>\n<p>There will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable&nbsp;car company&nbsp;and its iconoclast CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk.</p>\n<p>Factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d908f359ce3333ed256684e007ff74d0\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p>\n<p>The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p>\n<p>After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p>\n<p>There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p>\n<p>Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p>\n<p>Those topics and more should be discussed on the earnings&nbsp;conference call&nbsp;scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most. </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most. \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151724613","content_text":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk.\nFactors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nThose topics and more should be discussed on the earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142225510,"gmtCreate":1626154837730,"gmtModify":1633929561310,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do help me like","listText":"Do help me like","text":"Do help me like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142225510","repostId":"1101566017","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101566017","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626132937,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101566017?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 07:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How earnings season is likely to play out in the coming weeks and its impact on the stock market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101566017","media":"cnbc","summary":"The great cyclical rebound is about to get underway with outsized gains expected in the quarterly profits of industrial, consumer discretionary, energy and materials companies.Earnings growth in the second quarter is expected to be a stunning 66%, as companies compare their results to the depressed period last year when the pandemic abruptly shut down the economy, according to Refinitiv data.“If you listen to what the CFOs are going to say, you’re going to think the earnings are terrible, but if","content":"<div>\n<p>The great cyclical rebound is about to get underway with outsized gains expected in the quarterly profits of industrial, consumer discretionary, energy and materials companies.\nEarnings growth in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/how-earnings-season-is-likely-to-play-out-in-the-coming-weeks-and-its-impact-on-the-stock-market.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How earnings season is likely to play out in the coming weeks and its impact on the stock market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow earnings season is likely to play out in the coming weeks and its impact on the stock market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 07:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/how-earnings-season-is-likely-to-play-out-in-the-coming-weeks-and-its-impact-on-the-stock-market.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The great cyclical rebound is about to get underway with outsized gains expected in the quarterly profits of industrial, consumer discretionary, energy and materials companies.\nEarnings growth in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/how-earnings-season-is-likely-to-play-out-in-the-coming-weeks-and-its-impact-on-the-stock-market.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/how-earnings-season-is-likely-to-play-out-in-the-coming-weeks-and-its-impact-on-the-stock-market.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1101566017","content_text":"The great cyclical rebound is about to get underway with outsized gains expected in the quarterly profits of industrial, consumer discretionary, energy and materials companies.\nEarnings growth in the second quarter is expected to be a stunning 66%, as companies compare their results to the depressed period last year when the pandemic abruptly shut down the economy, according to Refinitiv data.\nNormally a profit leader, the technology sector this quarter, is expected to see just 32% profit growth, according to Refiniv. That compares to shockingly large estimated increases in industrial sector profits of more than 570%, and energy industry profits, up 220%. Earnings for the financial and materials sectors are expected to be up more than 100% each.\nThose huge gains and expected earnings beats should be a positive for some cyclical stocks this quarter. Earnings season kicks off Tuesday with reports fromJPMorgan Chase,Goldman Sachs,andPepsiCo.\nThis earnings season will be the period where the tug of war that’s been a factor in the stock market, between cyclical and growth trades, is due to play out very clearly in the earnings numbers. Inflationary pressures, negative for tech stock performance, are expected to help boost cyclical earnings growth in the rebound, as companies face rising input costs but also up their prices.\n“I think what you’re going to see is a very unusual kind of contradiction between the data and the narrative,” said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse. “What companies are going to say is they are facing shortages and rising input costs and other things which are constraints to their success. And then what you’re going to see is massive beats and the biggest portions coming from higher margins. They’re not going to try to reconcile it.”\nGolub expects companies to provide detail on rising costs and supply shortages but not as much information on how much they are raising prices or how broadly.\n“If you listen to what the CFOs are going to say, you’re going to think the earnings are terrible, but if you look at the results, they’re going to be magnificent,” he said.\nBut ultimately, it’s tech and growth that will prove to be the best performers profit-wise over the long haul. “Their own earnings revisions for themselves are still good. They’re not deteriorating. They’re solid. They’re not getting worse. They’re not accelerating in this ridiculous way. They’re on the same solid trajectory they’ve been on,” said Brian Rauscher, Fundstrat head of global portfolio strategy.\nRauscher expects the trend to revert back to tech as the better earnings performer in two quarters from now, when cyclical airline stocks or industrial stocks like Caterpillar will see earnings growth back in the single digits. “Tech will keep growing at 25%,” he said.\nHe says economic growth will have slowed to a more normalized and sustained pace. By then it will be more apparent whether inflation is temporary or not.\n“If they are unable to pass along price increases, it will hit the earnings,” he said.\nGolub points out that tech profits in last year’s second quarter actually increased by 3.3% from 2019, as cyclical earnings plunged 85% in the same period. The 2021 second quarter earnings growth estimate for tech is 34.2%, while some cyclical earnings will rebound by more than 570% just to get back to even with 2019.\n“It says one of these is a near term trade, and one of them is a long term trade,” said Golub. “Once the supply chain issues are gone, [cyclicals] are going to be unimpressive.”\nEven with the push pull of tech and growth versus cyclical trades, strategists say the earning season should be good for the stock market.\n“I think the numbers will be very good, and it’ll be supportive for markets,” said Rauscher. He said some investors may be concerned that a peak period of earnings this quarter will lead to a market decline but he doesn’t expect that to be the case.\n“Obviously, the numbers are going to be outsized because we have that weird comparison from last year. I think the important thing is going to be the return of guidance,” Rauscher said. Both he and Golub say they expect earnings to beat to the upside.\n“I think the analysts have underestimated the improvement in operating leverage,” Rauscher said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809681939,"gmtCreate":1627365558021,"gmtModify":1631893240209,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help like pls","listText":"Help like pls","text":"Help like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809681939","repostId":"1199895001","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199895001","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627363989,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199895001?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 13:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Breaking Down The Pandemic's Lingering Impact On Market Sectors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199895001","media":"Benzinga","summary":"There’s no question the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant and potentially lasting impact on th","content":"<p>There’s no question the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant and potentially lasting impact on the economy. Nadex recently compileda reportfocusing on the U.S. economic recovery up to this point on a sector-by-sector basis.</p>\n<p>The tech sector has been one of the few market sectors that has navigated the pandemic relatively well. Technology allowed many businesses to take a creative approach to reaching customers during the shutdowns. As a result, secular shifts toward technologies facilitating remote work, online shopping, direct-to-consumer entertainment and even food delivery got a big boost in 2020.</p>\n<p><b>Thriving Tech Sector:</b>Certain tech stocks have performed extremely well throughout the pandemic, but finance expert Dan Nathan recently warned investors about bloated tech stock valuations among companies focused on cloud-based software, streaming media, digital ads&nbsp;and electric cars.</p>\n<p>“The valuations make little sense in historical terms, and we know how periods of mass euphoria end: with economic recessions, protracted bear markets, and risk-asset bubbles overshooting to the downside just as they did to the upside,” Nathan said.</p>\n<p>The agriculture industry was also unevenly impacted by the pandemic. Restaurant demand plummeted, and food retailers that supply hotels and food service outlets struggled.</p>\n<p>Growing demand from China and reduced supply from competing countries sent corn prices to the&nbsp;highest levels in six years by the end of 2020.</p>\n<p>In the energy sector, total energy delivery to residential, commercial, transportation&nbsp;and industrial end markets dropped 90% in 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says it could be anywhere between 2024 and 2050 before this energy demand recovers to pre-pandemic levels depending on the pace of economic recovery and growth in coming years.</p>\n<p><b>Real Estate And Travel:</b>A sharp drop in interest rates in 2020 created a boom in the housing market just as commercial real estate was taking a huge hit.</p>\n<p>Yet the recent stress test of U.S. banks demonstrated that mortgage lenders are being much more responsible during the current boom than they were during the housing crisis leading up to the 2008 Great Recession.</p>\n<p>The travel industry was one of the hardest hit segments of the market. Many airlines, cruise stocks, and casino and hotel stocks have yet to recover to their pre-crisis highs even in a red-hot stock market. Domestic and international travel spending dropped from $1.1 trillion in 2019 to just $680 billion in 2020.</p>\n<p><b>Benzinga’s Take:</b>Looking ahead, Nadex identified several areas of the economy that still have a long way to go before they fully recover from the crisis. However, recent trends in employment, GDP and corporate earnings suggest the pandemic was far from a worst-case scenario for the economy and will hopefully not have the severe, long-lasting economic impact of previous crises, such as the Great Depression.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Breaking Down The Pandemic's Lingering Impact On Market Sectors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBreaking Down The Pandemic's Lingering Impact On Market Sectors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 13:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/general/travel/21/07/22155354/breaking-down-the-pandemics-lingering-impact-on-market-sectors><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There’s no question the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant and potentially lasting impact on the economy. Nadex recently compileda reportfocusing on the U.S. economic recovery up to this point on...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/general/travel/21/07/22155354/breaking-down-the-pandemics-lingering-impact-on-market-sectors\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/general/travel/21/07/22155354/breaking-down-the-pandemics-lingering-impact-on-market-sectors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199895001","content_text":"There’s no question the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant and potentially lasting impact on the economy. Nadex recently compileda reportfocusing on the U.S. economic recovery up to this point on a sector-by-sector basis.\nThe tech sector has been one of the few market sectors that has navigated the pandemic relatively well. Technology allowed many businesses to take a creative approach to reaching customers during the shutdowns. As a result, secular shifts toward technologies facilitating remote work, online shopping, direct-to-consumer entertainment and even food delivery got a big boost in 2020.\nThriving Tech Sector:Certain tech stocks have performed extremely well throughout the pandemic, but finance expert Dan Nathan recently warned investors about bloated tech stock valuations among companies focused on cloud-based software, streaming media, digital ads and electric cars.\n“The valuations make little sense in historical terms, and we know how periods of mass euphoria end: with economic recessions, protracted bear markets, and risk-asset bubbles overshooting to the downside just as they did to the upside,” Nathan said.\nThe agriculture industry was also unevenly impacted by the pandemic. Restaurant demand plummeted, and food retailers that supply hotels and food service outlets struggled.\nGrowing demand from China and reduced supply from competing countries sent corn prices to the highest levels in six years by the end of 2020.\nIn the energy sector, total energy delivery to residential, commercial, transportation and industrial end markets dropped 90% in 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Administration says it could be anywhere between 2024 and 2050 before this energy demand recovers to pre-pandemic levels depending on the pace of economic recovery and growth in coming years.\nReal Estate And Travel:A sharp drop in interest rates in 2020 created a boom in the housing market just as commercial real estate was taking a huge hit.\nYet the recent stress test of U.S. banks demonstrated that mortgage lenders are being much more responsible during the current boom than they were during the housing crisis leading up to the 2008 Great Recession.\nThe travel industry was one of the hardest hit segments of the market. Many airlines, cruise stocks, and casino and hotel stocks have yet to recover to their pre-crisis highs even in a red-hot stock market. Domestic and international travel spending dropped from $1.1 trillion in 2019 to just $680 billion in 2020.\nBenzinga’s Take:Looking ahead, Nadex identified several areas of the economy that still have a long way to go before they fully recover from the crisis. However, recent trends in employment, GDP and corporate earnings suggest the pandemic was far from a worst-case scenario for the economy and will hopefully not have the severe, long-lasting economic impact of previous crises, such as the Great Depression.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170536890,"gmtCreate":1626441749810,"gmtModify":1633926734880,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do help me like","listText":"Do help me like","text":"Do help me 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post:)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140100134","repostId":"1116112587","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":604071748,"gmtCreate":1639291045230,"gmtModify":1639291045323,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a 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It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605651380,"gmtCreate":1639157063740,"gmtModify":1639157063848,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>: Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家: Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605651380","repostId":"1139003361","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139003361","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633342670,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139003361?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 18:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139003361","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upo","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Too many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.</li>\n <li>The market has struck an important support region.</li>\n <li>As long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.</li>\n <li>This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.</p>\n<p>Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Then, I saw the following response:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.</p>\n<p>Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.</p>\n<p>The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:</p>\n<p>With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.</p>\n<p>I even saw one comment this past week that said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.</p>\n<p>First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.</p>\n<p>And, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.</p>\n<p>What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.</p>\n<p>Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?</p>\n<p>As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.</p>\n<p>Many months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.</p>\n<p>The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)</p>\n<p>Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.</p>\n<p>For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.</p>\n<p>At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.</p>\n<p>If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.</p>\n<p>So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.</p>\n<p>Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is This The End Of The World As We Know It?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs This The End Of The World As We Know It?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-04 18:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4458221-sentiment-speaks-is-this-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1139003361","content_text":"Summary\n\nToo many investors retain a negative bias of the market because of news or fundamentals upon which they solely focus.\nThe market has struck an important support region.\nAs long as this support holds, I am looking next to the 4900-5000SPX region.\nThis idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard.\n\nI have to tell you that I get the biggest chuckle out of the comments I read from people on Seeking Alpha.\nRecently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly:\n\n\"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?\"\n\nThen, I saw the following response:\n\n\"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist.\"\n\nFolks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.\nYet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.\nThe main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But, unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.\nI have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?” I often post this picture from Jim Cramer’s show as the perfect example of when this happens:\nWith our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But, it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.\nI even saw one comment this past week that said:\n\n“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”\n\nThe question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.\nFirst, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.\nAnd, I can tell you that those that are able not only find it liberating, but also find it much more profitable:\n\n“Avi's service is a game changer! I started reading his public articles more than four years ago. I should have subscribed sooner. Through his service, I have learned to ignore the mass market miss-information. This has vastly improved my investing success. Put in the time to learn from the master. You won't believe the success you will achieve once you have gained this new perspective. Avi and his team are fantastic!”\n\n\n“I have heard and read about Avi Gilburt and The Market Pinball Wizard for several years prior to actually joining. Like others here I subscribed to several authors including Avi, and would read the public articles. At first, I like probably many others, was skeptical of the service and what was put forth . . . I had to \"unlearn what I had learned\", tune out the news and TV pundits and focus on purely the market. This was not easy as I usually thought the market was hooked at the hip of the economy in real time. Whether you are a novice investor and are just looking for \"macro\" ideas and guidance as to what's in front of you or a seasoned pro, this service, in my opinion, is invaluable! . . . This service is a investment game changer for sure!!”\n\nSecond, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.\nWhat they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. And, there are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.\nConsider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:\n\nThe historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?\n\nAnd, the exact opposite is true. Did not the economic world consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?\nAs we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.\nMany months ago I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.\nThe funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting, but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But, sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But, who cares about the truth. (smile)\nAgain, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.\nFor many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot to the members of my The Market Pinball Wizard analysis service between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. And, I noted earlier this year to our members that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.\nAt the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.\nIf we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.\nSo, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.\nHey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending articles on Seeking Alpha this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side. Have a good week all.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863276371,"gmtCreate":1632403795793,"gmtModify":1632732638916,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Help me like","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Help me like","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Help me like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863276371","repostId":"803494180","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":803494180,"gmtCreate":1627454493340,"gmtModify":1631893240207,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help me like","listText":"Help me like","text":"Help me like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803494180","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":35,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156585307,"gmtCreate":1625230593509,"gmtModify":1633942314727,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please![Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment please![Smile]&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment please![Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156585307","repostId":"1126312436","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126312436","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625212145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126312436?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126312436","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the p","content":"<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.</p>\n<p>Yet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.</p>\n<p>First, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a&nbsp;new multi-year high&nbsp;Thursday—even amid growing&nbsp;expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.</p>\n<p>“Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”</p>\n<p>Both those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>That means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.</p>\n<p>“Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.</p>\n<p>Peaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&amp;P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&amp;P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.</p>\n<p>“Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 15:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.\nThe S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126312436","content_text":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.\nThe S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.\nYet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.\nFirst, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a new multi-year high Thursday—even amid growing expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.\n“Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”\nBoth those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.\nThat means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.\n“Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&P 500 dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.\nPeaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.\n“Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148484600,"gmtCreate":1626005898900,"gmtModify":1633930969489,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hey//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3583809869084093\">@老娘驾到</a>:Yoh//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Really? Help me like//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3583011761877766\">@Doris11</a>:Like and comment","listText":"Hey//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3583809869084093\">@老娘驾到</a>:Yoh//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Really? Help me like//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3583011761877766\">@Doris11</a>:Like and comment","text":"Hey//@老娘驾到:Yoh//@股市专家:Really? Help me like//@Doris11:Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148484600","repostId":"2150037500","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150037500","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625822400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2150037500?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"White House to target bank mergers, financial data with competition order","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150037500","media":"StreetInsider","summary":"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Joe Biden's planned executive order to promote greater U.S. competi","content":"<p>WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Joe Biden's planned executive order to promote greater U.S. competition will target bank mergers by pushing the Federal Reserve and the Department of Justice to update merger guidelines and increase scrutiny of deals, according to a source familiar with the matter.</p>\n<p>It will also ask the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to issue rules giving consumers full control of their financial data to make it easier for customers to switch banks, the source said.</p>\n<p>The planned order, which is expected to be signed by Biden on Friday, is likely to chill M&amp;A in the banking sector after a rash of deals unleashed by the Trump administration's more industry-friendly regulatory policy.</p>\n<p>Those included the $28 billion marriage of BB&amp;T Corp and SunTrust, the biggest bank tie-up since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FITBO\">Fifth Third Bancorp</a>'s $4.7 billion purchase of MB Financial Inc, and many smaller deals. The value of M&amp;A among commercial, savings and investment banks reached $54.66 billion by November 2020, the highest since 2009, according to data from Dealogic.</p>\n<p>While such transactions have been subject to federal review, government agencies have not formally denied a bank merger application in more than 15 years, according to a paper by Jeremy Kress, a University of Michigan professor who previously worked on bank merger oversight at the Fed.</p>\n<p>\"There has been a rash of bank closures across the United States, and we're dealing with the bad effects for a lot of people and it's also hard to switch options ... so it is, in a sense, a crisis of competition,\" said the source.</p>\n<p>A report by the Federal <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">Financial Institutions</a> Examination Council and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows that the number of commercial banks in the U.S. has fallen by about 10,000 over the past two decades, a decline of 70%.</p>\n<p>This has led to higher fees for consumers, reduced access to banking services for communities of color and low-income working families, and increased concerns about risk to the financial system, according to studies by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.</p>\n<p>Bank mergers have been a target of progressives including Senator Elizabeth Warren, who says consolidation harms consumers.</p>\n<p>The executive order, which would also address merger guidelines of two other federal agencies that oversee banks, could drag big banks into a high-stakes antitrust debate even as they warn they need help from Washington to compete with financial technology upstarts. The Bank Policy Institute, which represents the nation's biggest lenders, argued in 2020 that banks face a barrage of competition from such players.</p>\n<p>Reuters first reported Biden's plan to issue a competition executive order. Details have since emerged on specific actions the administration plans to take that will impact industries such as farm equipment manufacturers, rail and sea shipping, and the labor market.</p>\n<p>The actions are part of Biden's moves to strengthen competition by not just enforcing antitrust laws but using federal power to ignite competition in an array of businesses.</p>\n<p>Since taking office, he has appointed advocates of tougher antitrust enforcement to top roles at the White House and agencies such as the Federal Trade Commission.</p>\n<p>Former President Barack Obama's administration issued a similar order in 2016, but it failed to yield results. The Biden order includes details on how government agencies should review deals and competition in industries, the source said.</p>\n<p>Biden's order also pushes to allow customers to switch banks by taking their financial transaction history data with them.</p>\n<p>In October, the CFPB sought comment on a potential proposal to increase consumers' access to their own financial data, which is collected by a growing number of financial institutions and apps. The agency's new leadership has yet to move ahead with it.</p>\n<p>The source said the White House hopes the executive order would spur the agency to push ahead with the changes.</p>\n<p>The increased ability to share such data could also help drive more accurate credit scoring models, helping to boost access to credit for under-served and minority communities, the source added.</p>","source":"highlight_streetinsider","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>White House to target bank mergers, financial data with competition order</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhite House to target bank mergers, financial data with competition order\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-09 17:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18659883><strong>StreetInsider</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Joe Biden's planned executive order to promote greater U.S. competition will target bank mergers by pushing the Federal Reserve and the Department of Justice to update...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18659883\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","WFC":"富国银行","JPM":"摩根大通"},"source_url":"https://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=18659883","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150037500","content_text":"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Joe Biden's planned executive order to promote greater U.S. competition will target bank mergers by pushing the Federal Reserve and the Department of Justice to update merger guidelines and increase scrutiny of deals, according to a source familiar with the matter.\nIt will also ask the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) to issue rules giving consumers full control of their financial data to make it easier for customers to switch banks, the source said.\nThe planned order, which is expected to be signed by Biden on Friday, is likely to chill M&A in the banking sector after a rash of deals unleashed by the Trump administration's more industry-friendly regulatory policy.\nThose included the $28 billion marriage of BB&T Corp and SunTrust, the biggest bank tie-up since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, and Fifth Third Bancorp's $4.7 billion purchase of MB Financial Inc, and many smaller deals. The value of M&A among commercial, savings and investment banks reached $54.66 billion by November 2020, the highest since 2009, according to data from Dealogic.\nWhile such transactions have been subject to federal review, government agencies have not formally denied a bank merger application in more than 15 years, according to a paper by Jeremy Kress, a University of Michigan professor who previously worked on bank merger oversight at the Fed.\n\"There has been a rash of bank closures across the United States, and we're dealing with the bad effects for a lot of people and it's also hard to switch options ... so it is, in a sense, a crisis of competition,\" said the source.\nA report by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis shows that the number of commercial banks in the U.S. has fallen by about 10,000 over the past two decades, a decline of 70%.\nThis has led to higher fees for consumers, reduced access to banking services for communities of color and low-income working families, and increased concerns about risk to the financial system, according to studies by the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.\nBank mergers have been a target of progressives including Senator Elizabeth Warren, who says consolidation harms consumers.\nThe executive order, which would also address merger guidelines of two other federal agencies that oversee banks, could drag big banks into a high-stakes antitrust debate even as they warn they need help from Washington to compete with financial technology upstarts. The Bank Policy Institute, which represents the nation's biggest lenders, argued in 2020 that banks face a barrage of competition from such players.\nReuters first reported Biden's plan to issue a competition executive order. Details have since emerged on specific actions the administration plans to take that will impact industries such as farm equipment manufacturers, rail and sea shipping, and the labor market.\nThe actions are part of Biden's moves to strengthen competition by not just enforcing antitrust laws but using federal power to ignite competition in an array of businesses.\nSince taking office, he has appointed advocates of tougher antitrust enforcement to top roles at the White House and agencies such as the Federal Trade Commission.\nFormer President Barack Obama's administration issued a similar order in 2016, but it failed to yield results. The Biden order includes details on how government agencies should review deals and competition in industries, the source said.\nBiden's order also pushes to allow customers to switch banks by taking their financial transaction history data with them.\nIn October, the CFPB sought comment on a potential proposal to increase consumers' access to their own financial data, which is collected by a growing number of financial institutions and apps. The agency's new leadership has yet to move ahead with it.\nThe source said the White House hopes the executive order would spur the agency to push ahead with the changes.\nThe increased ability to share such data could also help drive more accurate credit scoring models, helping to boost access to credit for under-served and minority communities, the source added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":693971385,"gmtCreate":1639965520847,"gmtModify":1639965520976,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693971385","repostId":"604581184","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":604581184,"gmtCreate":1639411601232,"gmtModify":1639443582112,"author":{"id":"3574968450404111","authorId":"3574968450404111","name":"B.God","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fba96cdefc2640a0413c00996aed28d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574968450404111","idStr":"3574968450404111"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604581184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699728793,"gmtCreate":1639903909512,"gmtModify":1639903909623,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699728793","repostId":"604581184","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":604581184,"gmtCreate":1639411601232,"gmtModify":1639443582112,"author":{"id":"3574968450404111","authorId":"3574968450404111","name":"B.God","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fba96cdefc2640a0413c00996aed28d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574968450404111","idStr":"3574968450404111"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604581184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699523897,"gmtCreate":1639843262119,"gmtModify":1639843262270,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699523897","repostId":"604581184","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":604581184,"gmtCreate":1639411601232,"gmtModify":1639443582112,"author":{"id":"3574968450404111","authorId":"3574968450404111","name":"B.God","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fba96cdefc2640a0413c00996aed28d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574968450404111","idStr":"3574968450404111"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604581184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699326937,"gmtCreate":1639751536729,"gmtModify":1639751541755,"author":{"id":"4087743833730310","authorId":"4087743833730310","name":"股市专家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71eff74c31d436d084b9b4cb5c912a1f","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087743833730310","idStr":"4087743833730310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","listText":"Nice//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087743833730310\">@股市专家</a>:Nice","text":"Nice//@股市专家:Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699326937","repostId":"604581184","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":604581184,"gmtCreate":1639411601232,"gmtModify":1639443582112,"author":{"id":"3574968450404111","authorId":"3574968450404111","name":"B.God","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fba96cdefc2640a0413c00996aed28d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574968450404111","idStr":"3574968450404111"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The real fall haven started. When Fed taper and raise interest rates in 2022, thats where the real fall is. Tesla $400-500 shareprice. All good news about Tesla is already priced in at $500. So dont be silly and buy at such prices. Honestly anyone who buy above $800 is in for a big loss in 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604581184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}