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Vicya
2022-04-12
Nice
@Buy_Sell:🔥【4月6日】美国股债双杀,科技股领跌,今天有什么交易计划
Vicya
2022-04-12
Nice
@期权小班长:谈谈美联储为何对自家股市下狠手,以及一个机会
Vicya
2022-04-12
Nice
@Ivan_甘灿荣:商品区间顶来袭,还有上涨空间?
Vicya
2022-04-12
$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$
bad day
Vicya
2022-03-02
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
@大叔观点时间:微软体量庞大,突飞困难,但是我们选择做多
Vicya
2022-03-02
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
@交易员Owen:为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争?
Vicya
2022-03-02
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
@爱上趋势股:芒格坚持买入阿里巴巴的原因是什么?
Vicya
2022-02-28
$Apple(AAPL)$
nice
Vicya
2022-02-28
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
@大叔观点时间:微软体量庞大,突飞困难,但是我们选择做多
Vicya
2022-02-28
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
@交易员Owen:为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争?
Vicya
2022-02-28
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
@爱上趋势股:芒格坚持买入阿里巴巴的原因是什么?
Vicya
2022-02-28
$SBS TRANSIT LTD(S61.SI)$
nice
Vicya
2022-02-26
$Li Auto(LI)$
nice
Vicya
2022-02-25
$Apple(AAPL)$
nice
Vicya
2022-02-25
$Walt Disney(DIS)$
nice
Vicya
2022-02-24
$Apple(AAPL)$
nice
Vicya
2022-02-24
Nice
抱歉,原内容已删除
Vicya
2022-02-22
$XIAOMI-W(01810)$
nice
Vicya
2022-02-20
$SBS TRANSIT LTD(S61.SI)$
nice
Vicya
2022-02-19
$XIAOMI-W(01810)$
nice
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港股市场 4月6日讯,港股大幅低开,恒生指数低开1.25%报22220.21点,国企指数跌1.7%,恒生科技指数跌2.77%。 盘面上,隔夜美股科技股大跌,港股回港科技股集体低开,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东(09618)$</a>跌5%,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易(09999)$</a>跌4.48%,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴(09988)$</a>跌4%,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度(09888)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯(00700)$</a>跌近2%,地产股大跌居前,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01238\">$宝龙地产(01238)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00960\">$龙湖集团(00960)$</a>领衔下跌,互联网医疗股、电力股、海运股、手机概念股、乳制品股普遍走低;另一方面,生物科技股强势,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688185\">$康希诺(688185)$</a>生物、","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法,包括对于大盘走势后续的看法?看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 4月6日讯,港股大幅低开,恒生指数低开1.25%报22220.21点,国企指数跌1.7%,恒生科技指数跌2.77%。 盘面上,隔夜美股科技股大跌,港股回港科技股集体低开,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东(09618)$</a>跌5%,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易(09999)$</a>跌4.48%,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴(09988)$</a>跌4%,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度(09888)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯(00700)$</a>跌近2%,地产股大跌居前,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01238\">$宝龙地产(01238)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00960\">$龙湖集团(00960)$</a>领衔下跌,互联网医疗股、电力股、海运股、手机概念股、乳制品股普遍走低;另一方面,生物科技股强势,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688185\">$康希诺(688185)$</a>生物、","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法,包括对于大盘走势后续的看法?看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 4月6日讯,港股大幅低开,恒生指数低开1.25%报22220.21点,国企指数跌1.7%,恒生科技指数跌2.77%。 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1、美货币政策进一步收紧: 美联储理事鸽派代表布雷纳德周二表示,美联储最早可能5月开始缩表,并将以更为迅速地步伐缩减资产负债表。她还表示,加息的步伐可能会比25个基点的增幅更大。 此言论一出,美联储全面转鹰,国债利率倒挂,股票市场立刻由涨转跌,其中科技股领跌,英伟达大跌5%。 缩表是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模,和加息一样,是一种收紧货币政策的手段。在这之前市场就知道要加息缩表一起上,只不过不知道具体执行方法,今晚的美联储会议纪要或披露缩表细节,也许能够一定程度上稳定市场情绪,很关键。 市场受到如此惊吓也可以理解,因为布雷纳德这次发言表述了抑制通胀的决心:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm 受通胀影响最严重的不是富人,相反富人持有资产,是通胀的受益者,所以就可以理解为什么抑制通胀股价会跌,股票也是一种资产嘛。 那么持有资产最少的人就是通胀的受害者。而且通胀最严重的食品等必需品消费,穷人占比是富人的两倍,通胀越严重,穷人越惨。为了穷人考虑美联储也要尽快抑制通胀,这就是布雷纳德转鹰的原因。 美国不同收入阶层受通胀影响图 如果是为底层人民考虑那确实好理解,不过对于市场来说有点惨。这段时间无论是航运还是外贸又或者是就业,均显示消费下降趋势。没有消费刺激,通胀自然而然会下降,只不过这个速度布雷纳德还是嫌慢。 航运牛股转熊 那我们如何看待这一轮股市回调呢? 就在今天CNBC疯狂money节目的主持人吉米克莱默表示让大家快跑,资产要回调了。他表示如果之前持有了一些投机标的,最好趁高位抛售,如果是价值股,那拿着也没什么问题。 我的看法差不多,如果你有近期sell p","listText":"假期发生了三件事:美货币政策进一步收紧,马斯克入股推特,中概股境外上市规定出台。按影响排序我们挨个谈谈看法。 1、美货币政策进一步收紧: 美联储理事鸽派代表布雷纳德周二表示,美联储最早可能5月开始缩表,并将以更为迅速地步伐缩减资产负债表。她还表示,加息的步伐可能会比25个基点的增幅更大。 此言论一出,美联储全面转鹰,国债利率倒挂,股票市场立刻由涨转跌,其中科技股领跌,英伟达大跌5%。 缩表是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模,和加息一样,是一种收紧货币政策的手段。在这之前市场就知道要加息缩表一起上,只不过不知道具体执行方法,今晚的美联储会议纪要或披露缩表细节,也许能够一定程度上稳定市场情绪,很关键。 市场受到如此惊吓也可以理解,因为布雷纳德这次发言表述了抑制通胀的决心:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm 受通胀影响最严重的不是富人,相反富人持有资产,是通胀的受益者,所以就可以理解为什么抑制通胀股价会跌,股票也是一种资产嘛。 那么持有资产最少的人就是通胀的受害者。而且通胀最严重的食品等必需品消费,穷人占比是富人的两倍,通胀越严重,穷人越惨。为了穷人考虑美联储也要尽快抑制通胀,这就是布雷纳德转鹰的原因。 美国不同收入阶层受通胀影响图 如果是为底层人民考虑那确实好理解,不过对于市场来说有点惨。这段时间无论是航运还是外贸又或者是就业,均显示消费下降趋势。没有消费刺激,通胀自然而然会下降,只不过这个速度布雷纳德还是嫌慢。 航运牛股转熊 那我们如何看待这一轮股市回调呢? 就在今天CNBC疯狂money节目的主持人吉米克莱默表示让大家快跑,资产要回调了。他表示如果之前持有了一些投机标的,最好趁高位抛售,如果是价值股,那拿着也没什么问题。 我的看法差不多,如果你有近期sell p","text":"假期发生了三件事:美货币政策进一步收紧,马斯克入股推特,中概股境外上市规定出台。按影响排序我们挨个谈谈看法。 1、美货币政策进一步收紧: 美联储理事鸽派代表布雷纳德周二表示,美联储最早可能5月开始缩表,并将以更为迅速地步伐缩减资产负债表。她还表示,加息的步伐可能会比25个基点的增幅更大。 此言论一出,美联储全面转鹰,国债利率倒挂,股票市场立刻由涨转跌,其中科技股领跌,英伟达大跌5%。 缩表是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模,和加息一样,是一种收紧货币政策的手段。在这之前市场就知道要加息缩表一起上,只不过不知道具体执行方法,今晚的美联储会议纪要或披露缩表细节,也许能够一定程度上稳定市场情绪,很关键。 市场受到如此惊吓也可以理解,因为布雷纳德这次发言表述了抑制通胀的决心:https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm 受通胀影响最严重的不是富人,相反富人持有资产,是通胀的受益者,所以就可以理解为什么抑制通胀股价会跌,股票也是一种资产嘛。 那么持有资产最少的人就是通胀的受害者。而且通胀最严重的食品等必需品消费,穷人占比是富人的两倍,通胀越严重,穷人越惨。为了穷人考虑美联储也要尽快抑制通胀,这就是布雷纳德转鹰的原因。 美国不同收入阶层受通胀影响图 如果是为底层人民考虑那确实好理解,不过对于市场来说有点惨。这段时间无论是航运还是外贸又或者是就业,均显示消费下降趋势。没有消费刺激,通胀自然而然会下降,只不过这个速度布雷纳德还是嫌慢。 航运牛股转熊 那我们如何看待这一轮股市回调呢? 就在今天CNBC疯狂money节目的主持人吉米克莱默表示让大家快跑,资产要回调了。他表示如果之前持有了一些投机标的,最好趁高位抛售,如果是价值股,那拿着也没什么问题。 我的看法差不多,如果你有近期sell p","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d974dabc7de34b01698f46f98f376cbc","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619671022","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613315217,"gmtCreate":1649716831938,"gmtModify":1649716832206,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613315217","repostId":"619127763","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":619127763,"gmtCreate":1649126347281,"gmtModify":1649127814477,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","authorIdStr":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"商品区间顶来袭,还有上涨空间?","htmlText":"最近对于做多通胀(商品)的投资者来说,不是个好时间,几大类商品均陆续出现大幅调整,具体后市如何,我将会在帖子里和大家分享,具体的交易机会也会在本周四(7号)晚的直播里和大家详细解说,大家多多留意。 从目前美股指的走势看,加息预期已经无法击溃美股,因此美联储理论上已经不担心后续紧缩政策下对股市的影响,从而更针对通胀数据进行打压。那么对于商品来说无疑就是潜在利空。但历史上,靠政策打压通胀,通常都不会是一蹴而就,而是有个积累的过程(要打压市场对通胀的预期,和逐步提高囤积商品的成本),因此这个过程中,商品仍会有不少调整后做多的机会,大家把握好,收益也是可以的。 一、农产品 在3月底周五刚刚公布的USDA农作物种植面积意向报告,决定了农产品的阶段性走势。因此只要各农产品价格不创3月份的价格高点的话,那么阶段性看空至5-6月份。 农产品价格高,供应增多是正常的。但由于化肥土地成本等同步上升,会带来种植成本的进一步上涨,而目前农产品调整,其实就是市场预期当前农产品种植成本的过程,所以调整幅度并不好猜测。而到了5-6月份,种植面积确定后,这部分成本将初步敲定,农产品的整体价格就有了底线,后续再上涨就是对美国种植天气的预期。所以近期农产品的下跌,并不一定是历史大顶的形成,很可能后续还会因天气问题再来一次脉冲式的机会,所以仍需关注。 二、原油 在美国再一次释放战略石油储备和俄乌局势缓和的形势下,油价将逐步转弱。战略石油储备的释放对油价是有短期打压作用的,尤其是这趟公布出来的释放数字是差不多三分一的美国储备,如果联合其它盟国的释放,对油价短期影响不容忽视。至于中期的下跌幅度,预期将在75美元附近,毕竟战略石油储备抛出后,未来是要回补的,抛得越多,对未来油价的支撑力度越强,所以如果并非实质性的原油设施增加,那么油价其实并不需要特别悲观。但是大幅震荡是在所难免的。 短期策略上,油价有效跌穿(以收","listText":"最近对于做多通胀(商品)的投资者来说,不是个好时间,几大类商品均陆续出现大幅调整,具体后市如何,我将会在帖子里和大家分享,具体的交易机会也会在本周四(7号)晚的直播里和大家详细解说,大家多多留意。 从目前美股指的走势看,加息预期已经无法击溃美股,因此美联储理论上已经不担心后续紧缩政策下对股市的影响,从而更针对通胀数据进行打压。那么对于商品来说无疑就是潜在利空。但历史上,靠政策打压通胀,通常都不会是一蹴而就,而是有个积累的过程(要打压市场对通胀的预期,和逐步提高囤积商品的成本),因此这个过程中,商品仍会有不少调整后做多的机会,大家把握好,收益也是可以的。 一、农产品 在3月底周五刚刚公布的USDA农作物种植面积意向报告,决定了农产品的阶段性走势。因此只要各农产品价格不创3月份的价格高点的话,那么阶段性看空至5-6月份。 农产品价格高,供应增多是正常的。但由于化肥土地成本等同步上升,会带来种植成本的进一步上涨,而目前农产品调整,其实就是市场预期当前农产品种植成本的过程,所以调整幅度并不好猜测。而到了5-6月份,种植面积确定后,这部分成本将初步敲定,农产品的整体价格就有了底线,后续再上涨就是对美国种植天气的预期。所以近期农产品的下跌,并不一定是历史大顶的形成,很可能后续还会因天气问题再来一次脉冲式的机会,所以仍需关注。 二、原油 在美国再一次释放战略石油储备和俄乌局势缓和的形势下,油价将逐步转弱。战略石油储备的释放对油价是有短期打压作用的,尤其是这趟公布出来的释放数字是差不多三分一的美国储备,如果联合其它盟国的释放,对油价短期影响不容忽视。至于中期的下跌幅度,预期将在75美元附近,毕竟战略石油储备抛出后,未来是要回补的,抛得越多,对未来油价的支撑力度越强,所以如果并非实质性的原油设施增加,那么油价其实并不需要特别悲观。但是大幅震荡是在所难免的。 短期策略上,油价有效跌穿(以收","text":"最近对于做多通胀(商品)的投资者来说,不是个好时间,几大类商品均陆续出现大幅调整,具体后市如何,我将会在帖子里和大家分享,具体的交易机会也会在本周四(7号)晚的直播里和大家详细解说,大家多多留意。 从目前美股指的走势看,加息预期已经无法击溃美股,因此美联储理论上已经不担心后续紧缩政策下对股市的影响,从而更针对通胀数据进行打压。那么对于商品来说无疑就是潜在利空。但历史上,靠政策打压通胀,通常都不会是一蹴而就,而是有个积累的过程(要打压市场对通胀的预期,和逐步提高囤积商品的成本),因此这个过程中,商品仍会有不少调整后做多的机会,大家把握好,收益也是可以的。 一、农产品 在3月底周五刚刚公布的USDA农作物种植面积意向报告,决定了农产品的阶段性走势。因此只要各农产品价格不创3月份的价格高点的话,那么阶段性看空至5-6月份。 农产品价格高,供应增多是正常的。但由于化肥土地成本等同步上升,会带来种植成本的进一步上涨,而目前农产品调整,其实就是市场预期当前农产品种植成本的过程,所以调整幅度并不好猜测。而到了5-6月份,种植面积确定后,这部分成本将初步敲定,农产品的整体价格就有了底线,后续再上涨就是对美国种植天气的预期。所以近期农产品的下跌,并不一定是历史大顶的形成,很可能后续还会因天气问题再来一次脉冲式的机会,所以仍需关注。 二、原油 在美国再一次释放战略石油储备和俄乌局势缓和的形势下,油价将逐步转弱。战略石油储备的释放对油价是有短期打压作用的,尤其是这趟公布出来的释放数字是差不多三分一的美国储备,如果联合其它盟国的释放,对油价短期影响不容忽视。至于中期的下跌幅度,预期将在75美元附近,毕竟战略石油储备抛出后,未来是要回补的,抛得越多,对未来油价的支撑力度越强,所以如果并非实质性的原油设施增加,那么油价其实并不需要特别悲观。但是大幅震荡是在所难免的。 短期策略上,油价有效跌穿(以收","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ffb5331c974d0c373e90646ac03f4a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4e658248e1d0a654384bff365dad143","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74b1f3d5628b2a7accf28937fabb33ac","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619127763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613315880,"gmtCreate":1649716690351,"gmtModify":1649716690672,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U11.SI\">$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$</a> bad day","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U11.SI\">$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$</a> bad day","text":"$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$ bad day","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac1ff30f1c9d5a0bf72077a559462ba6","width":"1440","height":"3063"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613315880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632040419,"gmtCreate":1646172980274,"gmtModify":1646172980504,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632040419","repostId":"638268752","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638268752,"gmtCreate":1645364945186,"gmtModify":1645392227649,"author":{"id":"3537499478386870","authorId":"3537499478386870","authorIdStr":"3537499478386870","name":"大叔观点时间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea86f242be3b8d003e109794195153c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"微软体量庞大,突飞困难,但是我们选择做多","htmlText":"今年,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> 可以说表现非常亮眼了!在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后,Q2财报营收利润双超预期,而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司,市值突破2万亿美元!但是,它的股价却波动剧烈,上下横跳,甚至有走衰的趋势,有人觉得微软体量庞大,突飞困难,也有人觉得微软老了,但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四:01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳,但胜在稳定,在传统的软件之外,尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年,随着整体市场的转暖,微软也完成了它的转型,根据前景规划,公司分成了4个部门:操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定,其股价从约30刀,涨到270刀(截止2021年上半年),8年9倍,平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说,最近这8年,增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况,我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下:· 个人计算(含操作系统Windows等)。视窗继续在作贡献,这个阶段推出了Windows 10, 大叔正在用这个,2021年Windows 11也出来了,用操作系统来统治整个生态,依然是它的强项,全球月活跃用户超15亿,几乎人人都要用。· 生产力和业务流程(含应用软件、如Office,领英等)。这个阶段推出了Office 365,大叔也在用Office、也在用领英,原来电脑本地安装的软件,现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务,每年付年费,自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计,也是人人都要用。· &nb","listText":"今年,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> 可以说表现非常亮眼了!在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后,Q2财报营收利润双超预期,而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司,市值突破2万亿美元!但是,它的股价却波动剧烈,上下横跳,甚至有走衰的趋势,有人觉得微软体量庞大,突飞困难,也有人觉得微软老了,但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四:01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳,但胜在稳定,在传统的软件之外,尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年,随着整体市场的转暖,微软也完成了它的转型,根据前景规划,公司分成了4个部门:操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定,其股价从约30刀,涨到270刀(截止2021年上半年),8年9倍,平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说,最近这8年,增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况,我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下:· 个人计算(含操作系统Windows等)。视窗继续在作贡献,这个阶段推出了Windows 10, 大叔正在用这个,2021年Windows 11也出来了,用操作系统来统治整个生态,依然是它的强项,全球月活跃用户超15亿,几乎人人都要用。· 生产力和业务流程(含应用软件、如Office,领英等)。这个阶段推出了Office 365,大叔也在用Office、也在用领英,原来电脑本地安装的软件,现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务,每年付年费,自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计,也是人人都要用。· &nb","text":"今年,$微软(MSFT)$ 可以说表现非常亮眼了!在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后,Q2财报营收利润双超预期,而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司,市值突破2万亿美元!但是,它的股价却波动剧烈,上下横跳,甚至有走衰的趋势,有人觉得微软体量庞大,突飞困难,也有人觉得微软老了,但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四:01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳,但胜在稳定,在传统的软件之外,尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年,随着整体市场的转暖,微软也完成了它的转型,根据前景规划,公司分成了4个部门:操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定,其股价从约30刀,涨到270刀(截止2021年上半年),8年9倍,平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说,最近这8年,增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况,我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下:· 个人计算(含操作系统Windows等)。视窗继续在作贡献,这个阶段推出了Windows 10, 大叔正在用这个,2021年Windows 11也出来了,用操作系统来统治整个生态,依然是它的强项,全球月活跃用户超15亿,几乎人人都要用。· 生产力和业务流程(含应用软件、如Office,领英等)。这个阶段推出了Office 365,大叔也在用Office、也在用领英,原来电脑本地安装的软件,现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务,每年付年费,自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计,也是人人都要用。· &nb","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14512d61176fc855407974bddd53bec7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638268752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632040536,"gmtCreate":1646172966778,"gmtModify":1646172967024,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632040536","repostId":"636342021","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":636342021,"gmtCreate":1645688741245,"gmtModify":1645788411077,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争?","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636630445\" target=\"_blank\">关于文章争议点的回应</a> 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感,而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了,所以这次低调一些,谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争, 这么说吧,无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展,从实际意义上讲,美国其实已经赢了。 第一,乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后,俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁,北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运,德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响,经济前景压力变大,俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱,其他新兴经济体遭受冲击,亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了? 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势,去年8月开始,就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二,美国“拱火”乌俄,是不是把自己的队友:欧洲诸国,也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了?他们以后的天然气,石油这些资源谁来保障? 要知道,欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的,两边长时间的发展格局是:在对抗中求合作,在博弈中求发展,我们来看一张图就明白了: 2019年到2020年,欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家,第一是俄罗斯,第二是挪威。 现在好了,欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯,根本就是砸了个西瓜,抱了个甜瓜回来,往后能源价格飙升,物价飞涨,企业成本高企,发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三,美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展,是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去? 为什么,因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊,大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选,其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候,美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是,美股当下的市场情绪极度看空,随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能,那么接下来大概率的剧情是:美股市场下跌,甚至会拖累实体经济走弱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636630445\" target=\"_blank\">关于文章争议点的回应</a> 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感,而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了,所以这次低调一些,谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争, 这么说吧,无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展,从实际意义上讲,美国其实已经赢了。 第一,乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后,俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁,北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运,德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响,经济前景压力变大,俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱,其他新兴经济体遭受冲击,亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了? 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势,去年8月开始,就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二,美国“拱火”乌俄,是不是把自己的队友:欧洲诸国,也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了?他们以后的天然气,石油这些资源谁来保障? 要知道,欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的,两边长时间的发展格局是:在对抗中求合作,在博弈中求发展,我们来看一张图就明白了: 2019年到2020年,欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家,第一是俄罗斯,第二是挪威。 现在好了,欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯,根本就是砸了个西瓜,抱了个甜瓜回来,往后能源价格飙升,物价飞涨,企业成本高企,发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三,美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展,是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去? 为什么,因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊,大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选,其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候,美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是,美股当下的市场情绪极度看空,随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能,那么接下来大概率的剧情是:美股市场下跌,甚至会拖累实体经济走弱","text":"关于文章争议点的回应 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感,而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了,所以这次低调一些,谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争, 这么说吧,无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展,从实际意义上讲,美国其实已经赢了。 第一,乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后,俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁,北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运,德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响,经济前景压力变大,俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱,其他新兴经济体遭受冲击,亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了? 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势,去年8月开始,就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二,美国“拱火”乌俄,是不是把自己的队友:欧洲诸国,也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了?他们以后的天然气,石油这些资源谁来保障? 要知道,欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的,两边长时间的发展格局是:在对抗中求合作,在博弈中求发展,我们来看一张图就明白了: 2019年到2020年,欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家,第一是俄罗斯,第二是挪威。 现在好了,欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯,根本就是砸了个西瓜,抱了个甜瓜回来,往后能源价格飙升,物价飞涨,企业成本高企,发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三,美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展,是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去? 为什么,因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊,大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选,其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候,美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是,美股当下的市场情绪极度看空,随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能,那么接下来大概率的剧情是:美股市场下跌,甚至会拖累实体经济走弱","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a604b21c281b4288e60ddbf879be688","width":"1080","height":"597"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ec9bc2e915616286fd97bd5f84f7e1","width":"1000","height":"797"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4635ae81a23537dbbaa8cebb3c573a","width":"1080","height":"478"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636342021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632040253,"gmtCreate":1646172952836,"gmtModify":1646172953140,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632040253","repostId":"638707367","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638707367,"gmtCreate":1645518160329,"gmtModify":1645527090263,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","authorIdStr":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"芒格坚持买入阿里巴巴的原因是什么?","htmlText":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多,一位年近100岁高龄的股神,被<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> 套了一年,不断补仓,补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是: 2021年第一季度,阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%,然后芒格开始建仓,成本大概是 220-270 美元; 三季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,开始在140 美元左右补仓; 四季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,老爷子直接加大了买入力度,将持仓股翻了一倍,达到60多万,成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下,此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里? 他说的很简单,对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心,好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作,像极巴菲特当年抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 。 在2018年,苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势;而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票,成为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> 第一重仓股,后来仅3年多时间,苹果就从低点翻了6倍: 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上,每一轮优质资产的暴跌,在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中,都是他们所说的“别人恐惧,我贪婪”的机会。 那么,为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴? 很多人认为,由于","listText":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多,一位年近100岁高龄的股神,被<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> 套了一年,不断补仓,补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是: 2021年第一季度,阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%,然后芒格开始建仓,成本大概是 220-270 美元; 三季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,开始在140 美元左右补仓; 四季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,老爷子直接加大了买入力度,将持仓股翻了一倍,达到60多万,成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下,此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里? 他说的很简单,对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心,好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作,像极巴菲特当年抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 。 在2018年,苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势;而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票,成为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> 第一重仓股,后来仅3年多时间,苹果就从低点翻了6倍: 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上,每一轮优质资产的暴跌,在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中,都是他们所说的“别人恐惧,我贪婪”的机会。 那么,为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴? 很多人认为,由于","text":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多,一位年近100岁高龄的股神,被$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 套了一年,不断补仓,补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是: 2021年第一季度,阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%,然后芒格开始建仓,成本大概是 220-270 美元; 三季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,开始在140 美元左右补仓; 四季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,老爷子直接加大了买入力度,将持仓股翻了一倍,达到60多万,成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下,此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里? 他说的很简单,对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心,好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作,像极巴菲特当年抄底$苹果(AAPL)$ 。 在2018年,苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势;而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票,成为$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ 第一重仓股,后来仅3年多时间,苹果就从低点翻了6倍: 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上,每一轮优质资产的暴跌,在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中,都是他们所说的“别人恐惧,我贪婪”的机会。 那么,为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴? 很多人认为,由于","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f19baedea4e72c6eae8b548e67873552","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585302ff264dadb49345e7557ad08121","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45fc39a4f3fb8f4deffbcc13d623137d","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638707367","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636519150,"gmtCreate":1646006105107,"gmtModify":1646006105306,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd9ecee189529b106b42f38b71e53c6","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636519150","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636519918,"gmtCreate":1646006073100,"gmtModify":1646006073294,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636519918","repostId":"638268752","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638268752,"gmtCreate":1645364945186,"gmtModify":1645392227649,"author":{"id":"3537499478386870","authorId":"3537499478386870","authorIdStr":"3537499478386870","name":"大叔观点时间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea86f242be3b8d003e109794195153c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"微软体量庞大,突飞困难,但是我们选择做多","htmlText":"今年,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> 可以说表现非常亮眼了!在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后,Q2财报营收利润双超预期,而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司,市值突破2万亿美元!但是,它的股价却波动剧烈,上下横跳,甚至有走衰的趋势,有人觉得微软体量庞大,突飞困难,也有人觉得微软老了,但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四:01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳,但胜在稳定,在传统的软件之外,尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年,随着整体市场的转暖,微软也完成了它的转型,根据前景规划,公司分成了4个部门:操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定,其股价从约30刀,涨到270刀(截止2021年上半年),8年9倍,平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说,最近这8年,增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况,我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下:· 个人计算(含操作系统Windows等)。视窗继续在作贡献,这个阶段推出了Windows 10, 大叔正在用这个,2021年Windows 11也出来了,用操作系统来统治整个生态,依然是它的强项,全球月活跃用户超15亿,几乎人人都要用。· 生产力和业务流程(含应用软件、如Office,领英等)。这个阶段推出了Office 365,大叔也在用Office、也在用领英,原来电脑本地安装的软件,现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务,每年付年费,自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计,也是人人都要用。· &nb","listText":"今年,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> 可以说表现非常亮眼了!在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后,Q2财报营收利润双超预期,而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司,市值突破2万亿美元!但是,它的股价却波动剧烈,上下横跳,甚至有走衰的趋势,有人觉得微软体量庞大,突飞困难,也有人觉得微软老了,但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四:01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳,但胜在稳定,在传统的软件之外,尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年,随着整体市场的转暖,微软也完成了它的转型,根据前景规划,公司分成了4个部门:操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定,其股价从约30刀,涨到270刀(截止2021年上半年),8年9倍,平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说,最近这8年,增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况,我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下:· 个人计算(含操作系统Windows等)。视窗继续在作贡献,这个阶段推出了Windows 10, 大叔正在用这个,2021年Windows 11也出来了,用操作系统来统治整个生态,依然是它的强项,全球月活跃用户超15亿,几乎人人都要用。· 生产力和业务流程(含应用软件、如Office,领英等)。这个阶段推出了Office 365,大叔也在用Office、也在用领英,原来电脑本地安装的软件,现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务,每年付年费,自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计,也是人人都要用。· &nb","text":"今年,$微软(MSFT)$ 可以说表现非常亮眼了!在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后,Q2财报营收利润双超预期,而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司,市值突破2万亿美元!但是,它的股价却波动剧烈,上下横跳,甚至有走衰的趋势,有人觉得微软体量庞大,突飞困难,也有人觉得微软老了,但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四:01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳,但胜在稳定,在传统的软件之外,尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年,随着整体市场的转暖,微软也完成了它的转型,根据前景规划,公司分成了4个部门:操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定,其股价从约30刀,涨到270刀(截止2021年上半年),8年9倍,平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说,最近这8年,增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况,我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下:· 个人计算(含操作系统Windows等)。视窗继续在作贡献,这个阶段推出了Windows 10, 大叔正在用这个,2021年Windows 11也出来了,用操作系统来统治整个生态,依然是它的强项,全球月活跃用户超15亿,几乎人人都要用。· 生产力和业务流程(含应用软件、如Office,领英等)。这个阶段推出了Office 365,大叔也在用Office、也在用领英,原来电脑本地安装的软件,现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务,每年付年费,自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计,也是人人都要用。· &nb","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14512d61176fc855407974bddd53bec7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638268752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636510725,"gmtCreate":1646006060579,"gmtModify":1646006060781,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636510725","repostId":"636342021","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":636342021,"gmtCreate":1645688741245,"gmtModify":1645788411077,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争?","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636630445\" target=\"_blank\">关于文章争议点的回应</a> 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感,而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了,所以这次低调一些,谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争, 这么说吧,无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展,从实际意义上讲,美国其实已经赢了。 第一,乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后,俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁,北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运,德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响,经济前景压力变大,俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱,其他新兴经济体遭受冲击,亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了? 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势,去年8月开始,就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二,美国“拱火”乌俄,是不是把自己的队友:欧洲诸国,也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了?他们以后的天然气,石油这些资源谁来保障? 要知道,欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的,两边长时间的发展格局是:在对抗中求合作,在博弈中求发展,我们来看一张图就明白了: 2019年到2020年,欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家,第一是俄罗斯,第二是挪威。 现在好了,欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯,根本就是砸了个西瓜,抱了个甜瓜回来,往后能源价格飙升,物价飞涨,企业成本高企,发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三,美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展,是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去? 为什么,因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊,大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选,其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候,美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是,美股当下的市场情绪极度看空,随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能,那么接下来大概率的剧情是:美股市场下跌,甚至会拖累实体经济走弱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636630445\" target=\"_blank\">关于文章争议点的回应</a> 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感,而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了,所以这次低调一些,谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争, 这么说吧,无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展,从实际意义上讲,美国其实已经赢了。 第一,乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后,俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁,北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运,德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响,经济前景压力变大,俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱,其他新兴经济体遭受冲击,亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了? 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势,去年8月开始,就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二,美国“拱火”乌俄,是不是把自己的队友:欧洲诸国,也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了?他们以后的天然气,石油这些资源谁来保障? 要知道,欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的,两边长时间的发展格局是:在对抗中求合作,在博弈中求发展,我们来看一张图就明白了: 2019年到2020年,欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家,第一是俄罗斯,第二是挪威。 现在好了,欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯,根本就是砸了个西瓜,抱了个甜瓜回来,往后能源价格飙升,物价飞涨,企业成本高企,发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三,美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展,是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去? 为什么,因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊,大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选,其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候,美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是,美股当下的市场情绪极度看空,随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能,那么接下来大概率的剧情是:美股市场下跌,甚至会拖累实体经济走弱","text":"关于文章争议点的回应 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感,而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了,所以这次低调一些,谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争, 这么说吧,无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展,从实际意义上讲,美国其实已经赢了。 第一,乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后,俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁,北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运,德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响,经济前景压力变大,俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱,其他新兴经济体遭受冲击,亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了? 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势,去年8月开始,就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二,美国“拱火”乌俄,是不是把自己的队友:欧洲诸国,也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了?他们以后的天然气,石油这些资源谁来保障? 要知道,欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的,两边长时间的发展格局是:在对抗中求合作,在博弈中求发展,我们来看一张图就明白了: 2019年到2020年,欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家,第一是俄罗斯,第二是挪威。 现在好了,欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯,根本就是砸了个西瓜,抱了个甜瓜回来,往后能源价格飙升,物价飞涨,企业成本高企,发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三,美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展,是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去? 为什么,因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊,大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选,其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候,美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是,美股当下的市场情绪极度看空,随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能,那么接下来大概率的剧情是:美股市场下跌,甚至会拖累实体经济走弱","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a604b21c281b4288e60ddbf879be688","width":"1080","height":"597"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ec9bc2e915616286fd97bd5f84f7e1","width":"1000","height":"797"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4635ae81a23537dbbaa8cebb3c573a","width":"1080","height":"478"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636342021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636510234,"gmtCreate":1646006047106,"gmtModify":1646006047373,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636510234","repostId":"638707367","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638707367,"gmtCreate":1645518160329,"gmtModify":1645527090263,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","authorIdStr":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"芒格坚持买入阿里巴巴的原因是什么?","htmlText":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多,一位年近100岁高龄的股神,被<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> 套了一年,不断补仓,补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是: 2021年第一季度,阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%,然后芒格开始建仓,成本大概是 220-270 美元; 三季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,开始在140 美元左右补仓; 四季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,老爷子直接加大了买入力度,将持仓股翻了一倍,达到60多万,成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下,此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里? 他说的很简单,对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心,好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作,像极巴菲特当年抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 。 在2018年,苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势;而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票,成为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> 第一重仓股,后来仅3年多时间,苹果就从低点翻了6倍: 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上,每一轮优质资产的暴跌,在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中,都是他们所说的“别人恐惧,我贪婪”的机会。 那么,为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴? 很多人认为,由于","listText":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多,一位年近100岁高龄的股神,被<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> 套了一年,不断补仓,补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是: 2021年第一季度,阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%,然后芒格开始建仓,成本大概是 220-270 美元; 三季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,开始在140 美元左右补仓; 四季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,老爷子直接加大了买入力度,将持仓股翻了一倍,达到60多万,成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下,此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里? 他说的很简单,对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心,好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作,像极巴菲特当年抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 。 在2018年,苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势;而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票,成为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> 第一重仓股,后来仅3年多时间,苹果就从低点翻了6倍: 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上,每一轮优质资产的暴跌,在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中,都是他们所说的“别人恐惧,我贪婪”的机会。 那么,为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴? 很多人认为,由于","text":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多,一位年近100岁高龄的股神,被$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 套了一年,不断补仓,补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是: 2021年第一季度,阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%,然后芒格开始建仓,成本大概是 220-270 美元; 三季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,开始在140 美元左右补仓; 四季度,阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%,老爷子直接加大了买入力度,将持仓股翻了一倍,达到60多万,成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下,此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里? 他说的很简单,对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心,好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作,像极巴菲特当年抄底$苹果(AAPL)$ 。 在2018年,苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势;而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票,成为$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ 第一重仓股,后来仅3年多时间,苹果就从低点翻了6倍: 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上,每一轮优质资产的暴跌,在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中,都是他们所说的“别人恐惧,我贪婪”的机会。 那么,为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴? 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