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悟道者666
2022-05-09
财富是一个人的思考能力的产物。在变化万千的交易世界,若想不被他人左右,必须用心发展自己的投资哲学,坚守正确的投资理念。
抱歉,原内容已删除
悟道者666
01-21
期待特斯拉新一轮优秀表现
悟道者666
2022-06-15
你胜利了
@BillionaireQ:
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
我看好法拉第未来:问就是加仓up
2.3,搞它就是了🚀🚀🚀
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$AMC院线(AMC)$
悟道者666
2022-06-12
支持俞敏洪,大学时代就是新东方的忠粉
抱歉,原内容已删除
悟道者666
2022-05-19
密切关注
抱歉,原内容已删除
悟道者666
2022-05-19
当前形势下操作,实属不易啊
另外加密货币要涨吗
特斯拉短期估计📉推特是不是要小涨📈一下下?
悟道者666
2022-05-18
马克思VS马斯克,都是牛人,后者年轻有为,堪称卓越
@小虎AV: 【马斯克最新采访:如果收购成功将解封特朗普】昨夜,特斯拉CEO马斯克马斯克通过Zoom接受了采访,最近大家关心的事情基本都有聊到,视频较长,建议先马后看!0:43参考Twitter的垃圾账号问题,对拜登政府怠慢的思考,他认为:“这位总统只会操纵提词器,本届政府似乎并没有做多少事。”13:26分解特斯拉的6+项业务,将其与传统汽车公司进行比较21:42如果收购Twitter成功未来会是什么样的;对Twitter加密支付的担忧30:19建造vs.收购,特斯拉早期的故事39:52 SpaceX的宏伟愿景和商业模式,核聚变vs.太阳能56:37 特斯拉从加州搬到德州,是因为宏观经济需要
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$Twitter(TWTR)$
悟道者666
2022-05-14
短期反弹,中期探底,市场在长期磨底之后会在十🈷️份反转上涨,美股规律标普500在10一4🈷️收益好,5一10🈷️相对差一些,规律不容忽视
@交易员Owen:美股的熊市开始了吗?什么位置是底,何时会结束?
悟道者666
2022-05-14
股市是最历练人的地方,也是最反人性的,第二次探底正在进行时,不敢轻举妄动,保持中立,不多不空
@贝拉聊财金: 继续寻底!谁在“砸盘”,谁在“作妖”?财报回顾...Unity - Roblox -- OXY - Coinbase
悟道者666
2022-05-13
马斯克太牛了,推特被他玩于股掌之间,41.6价格都被他算好了
抱歉,原内容已删除
悟道者666
2022-05-09
多多研究学习大师的理论,作为指导,感谢🙏
抱歉,原内容已删除
悟道者666
2022-05-07
说的相当对
@话题虎:牛市在悲观中诞生!以史为鉴,加息后如何在股市生存?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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[爱你]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615824311","repostId":"615170404","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615170404,"gmtCreate":1652857948924,"gmtModify":1652872471197,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n 【马斯克最新采访:如果收购成功将解封特朗普】昨夜,特斯拉CEO马斯克马斯克通过Zoom接受了采访,最近大家关心的事情基本都有聊到,视频较长,建议先马后看!0:43参考Twitter的垃圾账号问题,对拜登政府怠慢的思考,他认为:“这位总统只会操纵提词器,本届政府似乎并没有做多少事。”13:26分解特斯拉的6+项业务,将其与传统汽车公司进行比较21:42如果收购Twitter成功未来会是什么样的;对Twitter加密支付的担忧30:19建造vs.收购,特斯拉早期的故事39:52 SpaceX的宏伟愿景和商业模式,核聚变vs.太阳能56:37 特斯拉从加州搬到德州,是因为宏观经济需要 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">$Twitter(TWTR)$</a>\n 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$Twitter(TWTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615170404","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"881e13f8621641f98285c3399716e398","tweetId":"615170404","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/e2ad4227vodcq1254107296/f38b832b387702300931117747/f0.mp4","poster":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cded5fef36e6bca8dd40852615d00b31"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612702797,"gmtCreate":1652511665919,"gmtModify":1652516340205,"author":{"id":"3586833792319360","authorId":"3586833792319360","name":"悟道者666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f84e2a572c767392e925fbf5ad3d32d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586833792319360","idStr":"3586833792319360"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"短期反弹,中期探底,市场在长期磨底之后会在十🈷️份反转上涨,美股规律标普500在10一4🈷️收益好,5一10🈷️相对差一些,规律不容忽视[暗中观察] ","listText":"短期反弹,中期探底,市场在长期磨底之后会在十🈷️份反转上涨,美股规律标普500在10一4🈷️收益好,5一10🈷️相对差一些,规律不容忽视[暗中观察] ","text":"短期反弹,中期探底,市场在长期磨底之后会在十🈷️份反转上涨,美股规律标普500在10一4🈷️收益好,5一10🈷️相对差一些,规律不容忽视[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612702797","repostId":"612819352","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612819352,"gmtCreate":1652261520204,"gmtModify":1652264385504,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491416357875149","idStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"美股的熊市开始了吗?什么位置是底,何时会结束?","htmlText":"本文只分享一些数据和我对数据的看法,我的结论并非就准确,大家见仁见智做个参考。 首先我觉得,我们现在正处在美股罕见的熊市之中,这点毫无疑问。 市场的走势其实很有规律,当大多数人觉得这次美股暴跌来的猝不及防的时候,我们放眼到价格运行的大周期环境下就会发现,这只是美股例行调整中必不可少的一次,用我们中国话说就是:天行有常。 你可以把暴跌归因到通胀的飞涨失控,也可以归因为美联储的加息缩表,也可以归因到乌俄战争,但归根结底是,美股的调整时间到了: 从标普月线的买卖强弱指标RSI和STO来看,每7年就会出现一次调整周期,而这次的买卖强弱指标的调整幅度甚至高于2020年年初那次天灾造成的大崩盘。 但从美股的调整幅度上讲,这次周期性的调整要远远小于2020年的那次股灾,看看纳指的调整,从顶部已经回落了20%,相比Y情元年那次崩盘还差将近10个百分点。 MSCI全球股市指数也下跌了20个百分点,RIS指数来到了超跌区间里。但相比2020年RIS的跌幅,这个位置向下可能还有空间。 以2020年的那次崩盘作为参照并不是说股指的跌幅会重演当初的崩盘,而是说在RSI和STO两个指标的调整空间和时间上,应该会不亚于2年前的那次崩盘,但即便如此,RSI的调整幅度也很快就要到位了。 市场情绪极度悲观 但市场底部马上就要到来 现在对于美股来讲,应该就是黎明前最黑暗的时间,我们相信,美股很可能会在短期出现一次反弹出逃的机会,但长期而言,熊市可能才刚刚开始,按照美股的运行规律,牛市的持续时间通常是熊市的五倍,按照这个规律来算,美股的这次调整预期可能放在5到6个月的时间会是合适的。 下跌的导火索大家都知道,乌俄战争导致的通胀爆发,逼迫美联储大幅加息,利率的抬升对美股高估值形成压力,同时通胀的失控也对经济利润的实体形成冲击。所以这次的大调整,并不能简单的和2015年那次利率抬升引发的回撤相提并论。 我们今天来一起","listText":"本文只分享一些数据和我对数据的看法,我的结论并非就准确,大家见仁见智做个参考。 首先我觉得,我们现在正处在美股罕见的熊市之中,这点毫无疑问。 市场的走势其实很有规律,当大多数人觉得这次美股暴跌来的猝不及防的时候,我们放眼到价格运行的大周期环境下就会发现,这只是美股例行调整中必不可少的一次,用我们中国话说就是:天行有常。 你可以把暴跌归因到通胀的飞涨失控,也可以归因为美联储的加息缩表,也可以归因到乌俄战争,但归根结底是,美股的调整时间到了: 从标普月线的买卖强弱指标RSI和STO来看,每7年就会出现一次调整周期,而这次的买卖强弱指标的调整幅度甚至高于2020年年初那次天灾造成的大崩盘。 但从美股的调整幅度上讲,这次周期性的调整要远远小于2020年的那次股灾,看看纳指的调整,从顶部已经回落了20%,相比Y情元年那次崩盘还差将近10个百分点。 MSCI全球股市指数也下跌了20个百分点,RIS指数来到了超跌区间里。但相比2020年RIS的跌幅,这个位置向下可能还有空间。 以2020年的那次崩盘作为参照并不是说股指的跌幅会重演当初的崩盘,而是说在RSI和STO两个指标的调整空间和时间上,应该会不亚于2年前的那次崩盘,但即便如此,RSI的调整幅度也很快就要到位了。 市场情绪极度悲观 但市场底部马上就要到来 现在对于美股来讲,应该就是黎明前最黑暗的时间,我们相信,美股很可能会在短期出现一次反弹出逃的机会,但长期而言,熊市可能才刚刚开始,按照美股的运行规律,牛市的持续时间通常是熊市的五倍,按照这个规律来算,美股的这次调整预期可能放在5到6个月的时间会是合适的。 下跌的导火索大家都知道,乌俄战争导致的通胀爆发,逼迫美联储大幅加息,利率的抬升对美股高估值形成压力,同时通胀的失控也对经济利润的实体形成冲击。所以这次的大调整,并不能简单的和2015年那次利率抬升引发的回撤相提并论。 我们今天来一起","text":"本文只分享一些数据和我对数据的看法,我的结论并非就准确,大家见仁见智做个参考。 首先我觉得,我们现在正处在美股罕见的熊市之中,这点毫无疑问。 市场的走势其实很有规律,当大多数人觉得这次美股暴跌来的猝不及防的时候,我们放眼到价格运行的大周期环境下就会发现,这只是美股例行调整中必不可少的一次,用我们中国话说就是:天行有常。 你可以把暴跌归因到通胀的飞涨失控,也可以归因为美联储的加息缩表,也可以归因到乌俄战争,但归根结底是,美股的调整时间到了: 从标普月线的买卖强弱指标RSI和STO来看,每7年就会出现一次调整周期,而这次的买卖强弱指标的调整幅度甚至高于2020年年初那次天灾造成的大崩盘。 但从美股的调整幅度上讲,这次周期性的调整要远远小于2020年的那次股灾,看看纳指的调整,从顶部已经回落了20%,相比Y情元年那次崩盘还差将近10个百分点。 MSCI全球股市指数也下跌了20个百分点,RIS指数来到了超跌区间里。但相比2020年RIS的跌幅,这个位置向下可能还有空间。 以2020年的那次崩盘作为参照并不是说股指的跌幅会重演当初的崩盘,而是说在RSI和STO两个指标的调整空间和时间上,应该会不亚于2年前的那次崩盘,但即便如此,RSI的调整幅度也很快就要到位了。 市场情绪极度悲观 但市场底部马上就要到来 现在对于美股来讲,应该就是黎明前最黑暗的时间,我们相信,美股很可能会在短期出现一次反弹出逃的机会,但长期而言,熊市可能才刚刚开始,按照美股的运行规律,牛市的持续时间通常是熊市的五倍,按照这个规律来算,美股的这次调整预期可能放在5到6个月的时间会是合适的。 下跌的导火索大家都知道,乌俄战争导致的通胀爆发,逼迫美联储大幅加息,利率的抬升对美股高估值形成压力,同时通胀的失控也对经济利润的实体形成冲击。所以这次的大调整,并不能简单的和2015年那次利率抬升引发的回撤相提并论。 我们今天来一起","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f4975ffe3ae669f5b13193b12aba24","width":"847","height":"698"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64e4706ccc11bde0ebb635b6417f888","width":"663","height":"637"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db29db20e00f2d6a7e3e1e6f80a1191e","width":"1080","height":"432"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612819352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":19,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3515677085772011","authorId":"3515677085772011","name":"老特资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e94c23bbbf9eaa7982385d5e639a294","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3515677085772011","idStr":"3515677085772011"},"content":"[开心] [开心] [开心]","text":"[开心] [开心] [开心]","html":"[开心] 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","text":"股市是最历练人的地方,也是最反人性的,第二次探底正在进行时,不敢轻举妄动,保持中立,不多不空[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612474265","repostId":"612293336","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612293336,"gmtCreate":1652344971120,"gmtModify":1652364127827,"author":{"id":"9000000000000112","authorId":"9000000000000112","name":"贝拉聊财金","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000112","idStr":"9000000000000112"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n \n \n 继续寻底!谁在“砸盘”,谁在“作妖”?财报回顾...Unity - Roblox -- OXY - Coinbase\n \n","listText":"继续寻底!谁在“砸盘”,谁在“作妖”?财报回顾...Unity - Roblox -- OXY - Coinbase","text":"继续寻底!谁在“砸盘”,谁在“作妖”?财报回顾...Unity - Roblox -- OXY - Coinbase","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6551d3afc88c8cdcbce037e7c07267c6","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612293336","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"61688845f74b4d55bf1ccd663ab9de4e","tweetId":"612293336","title":"⚡️ ⚡️ 继续寻底!谁在“砸盘”,谁在“作妖”?财报回顾...Unity - Roblox -- OXY - Coinbase","videoUrl":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/165234496621257b31343b8d122e5dab64009f839197f.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6551d3afc88c8cdcbce037e7c07267c6","shareLink":"http://v.tigerbbs.com/165234496621257b31343b8d122e5dab64009f839197f.mp4"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612421154,"gmtCreate":1652457710378,"gmtModify":1652457710378,"author":{"id":"3586833792319360","authorId":"3586833792319360","name":"悟道者666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f84e2a572c767392e925fbf5ad3d32d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586833792319360","idStr":"3586833792319360"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"马斯克太牛了,推特被他玩于股掌之间,41.6价格都被他算好了","listText":"马斯克太牛了,推特被他玩于股掌之间,41.6价格都被他算好了","text":"马斯克太牛了,推特被他玩于股掌之间,41.6价格都被他算好了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612421154","repostId":"2235114451","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612092289,"gmtCreate":1652068633841,"gmtModify":1652068633841,"author":{"id":"3586833792319360","authorId":"3586833792319360","name":"悟道者666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f84e2a572c767392e925fbf5ad3d32d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586833792319360","idStr":"3586833792319360"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"多多研究学习大师的理论,作为指导,感谢🙏","listText":"多多研究学习大师的理论,作为指导,感谢🙏","text":"多多研究学习大师的理论,作为指导,感谢🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612092289","repostId":"2138128121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616798441,"gmtCreate":1651937791383,"gmtModify":1651937791383,"author":{"id":"3586833792319360","authorId":"3586833792319360","name":"悟道者666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f84e2a572c767392e925fbf5ad3d32d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586833792319360","idStr":"3586833792319360"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说的相当对","listText":"说的相当对","text":"说的相当对","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616798441","repostId":"616427940","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":616427940,"gmtCreate":1651903284273,"gmtModify":1651911487550,"author":{"id":"3502767768442965","authorId":"3502767768442965","name":"话题虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d418c2def5dc1d094b03270b450f71ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3502767768442965","idStr":"3502767768442965"},"themes":[],"title":"牛市在悲观中诞生!以史为鉴,加息后如何在股市生存?","htmlText":"周五,美股延续了周四的跌势,截至收盘,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 连续第6周下跌,跌幅0.30%,报32899.37点;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 跌幅1.40%,报12144.66点;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 跌幅0.57%,报4123.34点。 A股和港股也是双双大跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a> 跌2.16%,收于3001.56,离跌破3000仅一步之遥,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399001\">$深证成指(399001)$</a> 跌2.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$</a> 跌1.90%;港股三大指数也全线收跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> 跌3.81%,报收20001.96,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$</a> 跌5.23%。 市场有分析认为,美联储的加息和缩表正式落地,引发美股市场动荡,对全球市场造成负面冲击。 美联储加息说了很久,鲍威尔也打了很多次的预防针,我们今天就以史为鉴,看看加息后,指数到底表现如何? 图一:标普500在美联储加息周期的总体表现 Truist Advisory Services对总共 12个加息周期的分析发现,标准普尔 500指数在这些周期期间","listText":"周五,美股延续了周四的跌势,截至收盘,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 连续第6周下跌,跌幅0.30%,报32899.37点;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 跌幅1.40%,报12144.66点;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 跌幅0.57%,报4123.34点。 A股和港股也是双双大跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a> 跌2.16%,收于3001.56,离跌破3000仅一步之遥,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399001\">$深证成指(399001)$</a> 跌2.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$</a> 跌1.90%;港股三大指数也全线收跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a> 跌3.81%,报收20001.96,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$</a> 跌5.23%。 市场有分析认为,美联储的加息和缩表正式落地,引发美股市场动荡,对全球市场造成负面冲击。 美联储加息说了很久,鲍威尔也打了很多次的预防针,我们今天就以史为鉴,看看加息后,指数到底表现如何? 图一:标普500在美联储加息周期的总体表现 Truist Advisory Services对总共 12个加息周期的分析发现,标准普尔 500指数在这些周期期间","text":"周五,美股延续了周四的跌势,截至收盘,$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 连续第6周下跌,跌幅0.30%,报32899.37点;$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 跌幅1.40%,报12144.66点;$标普500(.SPX)$ 跌幅0.57%,报4123.34点。 A股和港股也是双双大跌,$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 跌2.16%,收于3001.56,离跌破3000仅一步之遥,$深证成指(399001)$ 跌2.14%,$创业板指(399006)$ 跌1.90%;港股三大指数也全线收跌,$恒生指数(HSI)$ 跌3.81%,报收20001.96,$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 跌5.23%。 市场有分析认为,美联储的加息和缩表正式落地,引发美股市场动荡,对全球市场造成负面冲击。 美联储加息说了很久,鲍威尔也打了很多次的预防针,我们今天就以史为鉴,看看加息后,指数到底表现如何? 图一:标普500在美联储加息周期的总体表现 Truist Advisory Services对总共 12个加息周期的分析发现,标准普尔 500指数在这些周期期间","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63d46b552c4e80fe8b4a09a2efd06e8f","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0b23d5b1f980f6ce29f32d3cf1c7d5","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3ade81d8eebf7f54a46227912ce0e73","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616427940","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":612096817,"gmtCreate":1652067825139,"gmtModify":1652067825139,"author":{"id":"3586833792319360","authorId":"3586833792319360","name":"悟道者666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f84e2a572c767392e925fbf5ad3d32d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586833792319360","authorIdStr":"3586833792319360"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"财富是一个人的思考能力的产物。在变化万千的交易世界,若想不被他人左右,必须用心发展自己的投资哲学,坚守正确的投资理念。","listText":"财富是一个人的思考能力的产物。在变化万千的交易世界,若想不被他人左右,必须用心发展自己的投资哲学,坚守正确的投资理念。","text":"财富是一个人的思考能力的产物。在变化万千的交易世界,若想不被他人左右,必须用心发展自己的投资哲学,坚守正确的投资理念。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612096817","repostId":"2138128121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612702797,"gmtCreate":1652511665919,"gmtModify":1652516340205,"author":{"id":"3586833792319360","authorId":"3586833792319360","name":"悟道者666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f84e2a572c767392e925fbf5ad3d32d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586833792319360","authorIdStr":"3586833792319360"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"短期反弹,中期探底,市场在长期磨底之后会在十🈷️份反转上涨,美股规律标普500在10一4🈷️收益好,5一10🈷️相对差一些,规律不容忽视[暗中观察] ","listText":"短期反弹,中期探底,市场在长期磨底之后会在十🈷️份反转上涨,美股规律标普500在10一4🈷️收益好,5一10🈷️相对差一些,规律不容忽视[暗中观察] ","text":"短期反弹,中期探底,市场在长期磨底之后会在十🈷️份反转上涨,美股规律标普500在10一4🈷️收益好,5一10🈷️相对差一些,规律不容忽视[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612702797","repostId":"612819352","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":612819352,"gmtCreate":1652261520204,"gmtModify":1652264385504,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"美股的熊市开始了吗?什么位置是底,何时会结束?","htmlText":"本文只分享一些数据和我对数据的看法,我的结论并非就准确,大家见仁见智做个参考。 首先我觉得,我们现在正处在美股罕见的熊市之中,这点毫无疑问。 市场的走势其实很有规律,当大多数人觉得这次美股暴跌来的猝不及防的时候,我们放眼到价格运行的大周期环境下就会发现,这只是美股例行调整中必不可少的一次,用我们中国话说就是:天行有常。 你可以把暴跌归因到通胀的飞涨失控,也可以归因为美联储的加息缩表,也可以归因到乌俄战争,但归根结底是,美股的调整时间到了: 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MSCI全球股市指数也下跌了20个百分点,RIS指数来到了超跌区间里。但相比2020年RIS的跌幅,这个位置向下可能还有空间。 以2020年的那次崩盘作为参照并不是说股指的跌幅会重演当初的崩盘,而是说在RSI和STO两个指标的调整空间和时间上,应该会不亚于2年前的那次崩盘,但即便如此,RSI的调整幅度也很快就要到位了。 市场情绪极度悲观 但市场底部马上就要到来 现在对于美股来讲,应该就是黎明前最黑暗的时间,我们相信,美股很可能会在短期出现一次反弹出逃的机会,但长期而言,熊市可能才刚刚开始,按照美股的运行规律,牛市的持续时间通常是熊市的五倍,按照这个规律来算,美股的这次调整预期可能放在5到6个月的时间会是合适的。 下跌的导火索大家都知道,乌俄战争导致的通胀爆发,逼迫美联储大幅加息,利率的抬升对美股高估值形成压力,同时通胀的失控也对经济利润的实体形成冲击。所以这次的大调整,并不能简单的和2015年那次利率抬升引发的回撤相提并论。 我们今天来一起","text":"本文只分享一些数据和我对数据的看法,我的结论并非就准确,大家见仁见智做个参考。 首先我觉得,我们现在正处在美股罕见的熊市之中,这点毫无疑问。 市场的走势其实很有规律,当大多数人觉得这次美股暴跌来的猝不及防的时候,我们放眼到价格运行的大周期环境下就会发现,这只是美股例行调整中必不可少的一次,用我们中国话说就是:天行有常。 你可以把暴跌归因到通胀的飞涨失控,也可以归因为美联储的加息缩表,也可以归因到乌俄战争,但归根结底是,美股的调整时间到了: 从标普月线的买卖强弱指标RSI和STO来看,每7年就会出现一次调整周期,而这次的买卖强弱指标的调整幅度甚至高于2020年年初那次天灾造成的大崩盘。 但从美股的调整幅度上讲,这次周期性的调整要远远小于2020年的那次股灾,看看纳指的调整,从顶部已经回落了20%,相比Y情元年那次崩盘还差将近10个百分点。 MSCI全球股市指数也下跌了20个百分点,RIS指数来到了超跌区间里。但相比2020年RIS的跌幅,这个位置向下可能还有空间。 以2020年的那次崩盘作为参照并不是说股指的跌幅会重演当初的崩盘,而是说在RSI和STO两个指标的调整空间和时间上,应该会不亚于2年前的那次崩盘,但即便如此,RSI的调整幅度也很快就要到位了。 市场情绪极度悲观 但市场底部马上就要到来 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1/6 忘掉成本,哪有那么容易? “刚大,XX股票巨亏,怎么办?” “刚大,XX股票赚了不少,要不要先卖掉一点?” 亏了或赚了之后怎么办,这一类的问题是我遇到最多的。 理论上说,投资时刻都在进行风险收益比的判断,这个判断总是基于基本面和市场风格偏好,而与你之前是巨亏还是大赚没有任何关系,跟你的成本没有关系。 但我们是人,是人就有情绪,有记忆,没有人能完全摆脱过去的盈利和亏损对自己判断的影响,与其空喊“忘掉成本”的口号,不如从行为金融学的角度,知道 自己为什么会一步步走向巨额亏损,或者为什么盈利一大就拿不住,才能有相应的对策。 今天拿来的“理论武器”是获得2002年度诺贝尔经济学奖的“前景理论”。 2/6 盈利后的风险厌恶 行为经济学是一个描述性的学科,它用做实验的形式,描述人们行为上的某些规律性的特点,以下四个实验全部来自卡尼曼和特维斯基的论文——《前景理论:一种风险条件下的决策分析》。 实验一: 你觉得哪一个选项更有利? 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