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Lifen

Lifen

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2021-07-24

$苹果(AAPL)$up up up

2021-08-18

看好贝壳

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-16

$小米集团-W(01810)$看好小米

2021-07-23

$苹果(AAPL)$：）

2021-07-26

$苹果(AAPL)$Nice

2021-08-16

坐等ip13

2021-08-26

看好这只票

2021-08-06

$小米集团-W(01810)$看好小米

2021-08-06

坐等ip13

2021-08-05

$苹果(AAPL)$up up up

2021-08-04

$小米集团-W(01810)$up up up

2021-07-28

看涨 up up up

2021-07-27

$小米集团-W(01810)$ up up up

2021-07-27

看好芯片股

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亿元，同比增长20%，也超过之前预期“225-235亿”的区间。2021年上半年，贝壳总净收入为449 亿元，同比增长64.6%&nbsp;。</p>\n<p>三大业务中，新兴和其他服务的净收入贡献了7亿元，业务增长幅度最高，同比增长达到50.6%；新房交易净收入达到105 亿元，同比增长31.9%；二手房净收入为96亿元，但增速放缓，同比增长仅为4.9%。</p>\n<p>除此之外，2021年上半年，贝壳门店数量为52868家，比一年前增长 25.1%；代理商数量为548600人，增长20.3%。移动月活跃用户 (MAU)平均为5210万，同比增长33.5%。</p>\n<p>但贝壳Q2财报的数据并不完美，尤其是净利润、毛利率双双下跌。</p>\n<p>虽然2021年上半年总净利润在增长，但贝壳Q2的数据却非常“拉胯”。财报显示，2020年Q2贝壳净利润为28.39 亿元，今年Q2则为11亿元，同比大降61%；而调整后净利润为16.38 亿元，同比大降60.7%。</p>\n<p>另一方面，贝壳Q2毛利也大幅下降。2021 年Q2贝壳毛利润为53 亿元，毛利率为 22.1%，而在2020年，这两个数据分别为66 亿元和32.5%，毛利润和毛利率同比分别下降19.7%和32%。</p>\n<p>在净利润下降的同时，成本却在增加。财报显示，2021年Q2贝壳运营成本为188 亿元，同比增加38.6%。</p>\n<p>最后，对于2021年第三季度业务展望，贝壳也给了一个谨慎的数字：公司预计总净收入将在人民币145亿-155亿元之间，同比下降约24.6%-29.4%。</p>\n<p>虽然贝壳在Q2取得了一定成绩，但大跌了60%的净利润、以及对未来谨慎的预期，依旧给投资人带来一定恐慌。贝壳Q2财报发布后，股价大跌6%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>宣布将贝壳的评级从“跑赢大市”下调至“中性”，目标价从86美元下调至24美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞</a>也将贝壳的目标下调至22.4美元。</p>\n<p><b>“史上最严监管时代”</b></p>\n<p>在解释毛利率下降原因时，贝壳在财报中称：“成屋销售市场受到一系列市场降温措施的影响，导致成屋交易收入对总净收入的贡献相对较低。”</p>\n<p>实际上，近一年房地产行业都在经历“史上最严监管时代”：2020年8月，“三道红线”出台；十四五规划再次强调“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒”，要“稳地价、稳房价、稳预期”；12月底，央行明确房地产贷款集中度管理，一二线城市出现银行个人住房贷款直接停贷的情况。</p>\n<p>而据中原房地产研究中心统计，2021年1至7月全国房地产调整多达352起，上年同期则为336起。</p>\n<p>据贝壳研究院报告显示，随着二季度对于“经营贷”排查、银行额度收紧等资金端调控政策的推出，以及一系列房地产市场调控政策的发布，新房市场二季度成交量增速降到2019年水平。</p>\n<p>对二手房的监管也在加强，比如，打击经营性贷款非法流入房地产领域，上调首套房和二手房房贷利率。今年2月，深圳首创“二手房指导价”，要求银行按照指导价格贷款。</p>\n<p>月成交5000套是深圳楼市的“荣枯线”。据乐有家研究中心数据统计，在“指导价”实施后，深圳2-6月二手房成交量分别为4166套、6789套、4877套、3027套、2575套，除了3月份数据反弹，深圳其余几个月交易量均低于5000套。</p>\n<p>除了成交量骤降，深圳二手房价格也被调控。国家统计局数据显示，深圳二手房价格指数环比下滑0.1个百分点，据媒体报道，这是自2019年7月以来，深圳市二手房价格指数的首次下滑。</p>\n<p>二手房市场降温直接导致房产中介生存受到挑战。据深圳房地产中介协会统计，截至今年6月，深圳持牌中介人员数为45458人。2021年1-6月份以来，从业人员数量同比下滑了11.8%。</p>\n<p>网上也有爆料，近日深圳一家地产中介老板卷钱跑路，后被指出是贝壳平台加盟店德佑地产门店。据《证券时报》报道，德佑回复称已成立专项小组，正全力协助经纪人追佣。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1cb0d10207320dfdb25b63cf470d6a\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但这仅仅是开始，房地产行业更多监管和调整政策，在今年下半年推出。</p>\n<p>据中原房地产研究中心统计，2021年7月份，全国房地产调控政策呈现井喷态势，高达66项的调控政策创年内新高。</p>\n<p>7月23日，住房和城乡建设部等8部门联合印发了《住房和城乡建设部等8部门关于持续整治规范房地产市场秩序的通知》，房地产开发企业、中介机构、住房租赁企业、物业服务企业、金融机构、网络媒体及从业人员，行业所有参与方全部被纳入监管，“力争用3年左右时间，实现房地产市场秩序明显好转”。</p>\n<p>房地产行业数据在进一步“回落”。据自媒体“未来可栖”统计，7月份头部房企出现销售额集体下降，万科、融创、恒大、绿城、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601155\">新城控股</a>等企业销售额环比降幅均超过20%，“虽然7月是往常说的淡季，但大规模的‘跳水’的确不常见”。</p>\n<p>据乐有家研究中心数据显示，7月深圳二手房过户2557套，同比下跌81%。深圳二手房成交量已经是4连跌。而在日前国家统计局刚刚发布的《2021年7月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》中显示，一二三线城市的商品房涨幅均出现回落。</p>\n<p>在Q2财报发布后的投资者电话会议中，贝壳董事长兼CEO彭永东表示，根据贝壳研究院的分析，下半年整体信贷环境收紧，各地限价等调控政策效应会逐渐显现，整体房地产交易预计会继续降温。</p>\n<p><b>贝壳的烦恼</b></p>\n<p>除了受到监管和房地产行业大环境的影响，贝壳还有其他的烦恼。</p>\n<p>2018年4月贝壳成立，它打破了房产中介线上和线下的界限，炒红了ACN模式（Agent&nbsp;Cooperate&nbsp;Network）。但因和链家的关系，贝壳一直被行业质疑垄断，“既做裁判，也做选手”。</p>\n<p>在今年阿里因垄断被罚182亿后，“反贝壳联盟”的发起者和坚定推行者、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58同城</a>CEO姚劲波在朋友圈称：\"房产交易领域有更明目张胆的二选一包装成自愿，强烈呼吁国家反垄断罚款贝壳40亿（4%标准）。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fecb06e6f94d5b0b7718d78cca8088\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4月13日，市场监管总局约谈了34家互联网企业，要求各平台企业要在&nbsp;一个月内全面自检自查，逐项彻底整改。贝壳位列其中。</p>\n<p>5月25日，路透社报道“中国市场监管总局已对贝壳找房启动反垄断调查”，贝壳紧急辟谣，贝壳美股盘前股价一度跌超9%。</p>\n<p>在最新的投资者电话会议上，彭永东表示，贝壳已经积极配合相关部门，认真自查和整改。而贝壳新任命的董事会执行董事、CFO徐涛也表示,目前贝壳未接受任何与反垄断问题相关的正式检查。</p>\n<p>除了解释涉嫌反垄断问题，贝壳还解释了“中介费用调整的传闻”。</p>\n<p>据财联社报道，7月底，一张“最新指示称房屋交易中介费不得超过当地社平工资3倍”的截图在网上流传。一般而言，贝壳的中介费按照房款总额的2.5%来计算，也有媒体报道中介费为2.7%，市场比较好的地区甚至能到3%。</p>\n<p>截图传出后，链家、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000560\">我爱我家</a>、中原地产、21世纪不动产等多家公司迅速对外辟谣称“没有接到相关通知”，但有不少人人为，这是监管即将规范二手房中介交易费用的信号。</p>\n<p>而在电话会议上，徐涛再次表示：“在与住建部沟通求证后，住建部明确回应此前并不知道这样的消息。”</p>\n<p>但不可否认，贝壳已经进入“一个量价调整时期”，快速增长、高利润阶段结束了，精细化运营时代开始了。</p>\n<p><b>寻找新的“难而正确的事”</b></p>\n<p>“做难而正确的事”，这是媒体给贝壳已故董事长左晖的标签，把客户放在首位，把尊严还给房产经纪人，打造一个极富战斗力的团队，这是左晖20年来一直在做的难而正确的事。</p>\n<p>在新的历史阶段，贝壳要找到新的难而正确的事。</p>\n<p>“在高速增长的市场环境里，经纪人往往聚焦‘签单’，而下行的市场更有利于我们进行精细化管理，做品质和效率的提升。”彭永东称。</p>\n<p>而Q2财报也在一定程度上透露，贝壳推动的长链条、多角色ACN模式有了初步的成效。上文提到，2021年Q2贝壳运营成本为188 亿元，其中94 亿元用于支付关联代理和其他销售渠道的佣金。</p>\n<p>据彭永东透露，第二季度贝壳52868家门店中，约30%的新增门店来自现有门店店东创业，过去12个月GTV超过5000万温饱线的门店数量超过19500家，占比37%。</p>\n<p>除了做精细化运营，贝壳也在推以家装为代表的新兴业务。</p>\n<p>在今年3月的投资人电话会议上，彭永东介绍了贝壳包括家装和金融的两大新兴业务，并表示“2021年贝壳将重点打造在家装服务的核心竞争力”。</p>\n<p>贝壳在家装领域也有了一定突破。今年6月，成都贝壳家居有限公司成立；7月，贝壳宣布收购“圣都家装”100%的股权；贝壳旗下的“被窝家装”SaaS系统V1.0也全面上线，在北京完成834单。</p>\n<p>彭永东强调：“贝壳是国家‘房住不炒’政策及各地调控政策的坚定支持者、维护者和践行者。”</p>\n<p>“任何组织都有自己的低点和高点，有至暗时点也有高光时刻。在高点有多么的冷静，在低点就有多么地坚定。”彭永东称。市值蒸发4000亿后，贝壳需要在降温的房产交易市场中找到新的“难而正确的事”，创造新的增长故事。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>贝壳很难，但在做“正确的事”吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n贝壳很难，但在做“正确的事”吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055179466\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d097469860fd601fcda1f5b49dba641);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">鞭牛士Bianews </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-18 10:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2020年8月13日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>找房成功登陆纽交所，成为“中国居住服务平台第一股”。开盘首日，贝壳股价上涨87.2%，市值达到422亿美元。</p>\n<p>今年8月13日，贝壳已经公布了2021年第二季度财报，贝壳股价当天最低触碰到17.4美元，连续多日跌破发行价。</p>\n<p>上市一年，贝壳大起又大落。上市不到三个月，贝壳股价从20美元暴涨到79.4美元，市值最高达到 900 亿美元，远超万科、恒大。但随着创始人左晖不幸离世、房地产行业调控增加，反垄断风潮，以及整个中概股环境的低迷，贝壳股价一路震荡下跌。8月5日，贝壳第一次跌破发行价，市值蒸发了4000亿人民币。</p>\n<p>但贝壳的麻烦还不止于此。房地产行业的调控还在继续，降温也将持续。挥别高速增长，贝壳亟需找到新的“难而正确的事”。</p>\n<p><b>不完美的财报</b></p>\n<p>8月11日，贝壳公布了2021年第二季度未经审计的财务业绩。</p>\n<p>先看一些亮点数据：</p>\n<p>首先是交易额（GTV）大幅提升。2021年Q2贝壳的GTV达到1.22万亿元，同比增长 22.2%。2021上半年，总GTV达到2.29万亿元，同比增长达72.3%。</p>\n<p>其中，二手房GTV为6520亿元，同比增长11.7%；新房GTV为4983亿元，同比增长32.3%；新兴及其他业务GTV为706亿元，同比增长80.5%。</p>\n<p>其次，在GTV“强劲增长”的推动下，贝壳净收入也有了提升。财报显示，Q2贝壳净收入达到242 亿元，同比增长20%，也超过之前预期“225-235亿”的区间。2021年上半年，贝壳总净收入为449 亿元，同比增长64.6%&nbsp;。</p>\n<p>三大业务中，新兴和其他服务的净收入贡献了7亿元，业务增长幅度最高，同比增长达到50.6%；新房交易净收入达到105 亿元，同比增长31.9%；二手房净收入为96亿元，但增速放缓，同比增长仅为4.9%。</p>\n<p>除此之外，2021年上半年，贝壳门店数量为52868家，比一年前增长 25.1%；代理商数量为548600人，增长20.3%。移动月活跃用户 (MAU)平均为5210万，同比增长33.5%。</p>\n<p>但贝壳Q2财报的数据并不完美，尤其是净利润、毛利率双双下跌。</p>\n<p>虽然2021年上半年总净利润在增长，但贝壳Q2的数据却非常“拉胯”。财报显示，2020年Q2贝壳净利润为28.39 亿元，今年Q2则为11亿元，同比大降61%；而调整后净利润为16.38 亿元，同比大降60.7%。</p>\n<p>另一方面，贝壳Q2毛利也大幅下降。2021 年Q2贝壳毛利润为53 亿元，毛利率为 22.1%，而在2020年，这两个数据分别为66 亿元和32.5%，毛利润和毛利率同比分别下降19.7%和32%。</p>\n<p>在净利润下降的同时，成本却在增加。财报显示，2021年Q2贝壳运营成本为188 亿元，同比增加38.6%。</p>\n<p>最后，对于2021年第三季度业务展望，贝壳也给了一个谨慎的数字：公司预计总净收入将在人民币145亿-155亿元之间，同比下降约24.6%-29.4%。</p>\n<p>虽然贝壳在Q2取得了一定成绩，但大跌了60%的净利润、以及对未来谨慎的预期，依旧给投资人带来一定恐慌。贝壳Q2财报发布后，股价大跌6%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>宣布将贝壳的评级从“跑赢大市”下调至“中性”，目标价从86美元下调至24美元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞</a>也将贝壳的目标下调至22.4美元。</p>\n<p><b>“史上最严监管时代”</b></p>\n<p>在解释毛利率下降原因时，贝壳在财报中称：“成屋销售市场受到一系列市场降温措施的影响，导致成屋交易收入对总净收入的贡献相对较低。”</p>\n<p>实际上，近一年房地产行业都在经历“史上最严监管时代”：2020年8月，“三道红线”出台；十四五规划再次强调“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒”，要“稳地价、稳房价、稳预期”；12月底，央行明确房地产贷款集中度管理，一二线城市出现银行个人住房贷款直接停贷的情况。</p>\n<p>而据中原房地产研究中心统计，2021年1至7月全国房地产调整多达352起，上年同期则为336起。</p>\n<p>据贝壳研究院报告显示，随着二季度对于“经营贷”排查、银行额度收紧等资金端调控政策的推出，以及一系列房地产市场调控政策的发布，新房市场二季度成交量增速降到2019年水平。</p>\n<p>对二手房的监管也在加强，比如，打击经营性贷款非法流入房地产领域，上调首套房和二手房房贷利率。今年2月，深圳首创“二手房指导价”，要求银行按照指导价格贷款。</p>\n<p>月成交5000套是深圳楼市的“荣枯线”。据乐有家研究中心数据统计，在“指导价”实施后，深圳2-6月二手房成交量分别为4166套、6789套、4877套、3027套、2575套，除了3月份数据反弹，深圳其余几个月交易量均低于5000套。</p>\n<p>除了成交量骤降，深圳二手房价格也被调控。国家统计局数据显示，深圳二手房价格指数环比下滑0.1个百分点，据媒体报道，这是自2019年7月以来，深圳市二手房价格指数的首次下滑。</p>\n<p>二手房市场降温直接导致房产中介生存受到挑战。据深圳房地产中介协会统计，截至今年6月，深圳持牌中介人员数为45458人。2021年1-6月份以来，从业人员数量同比下滑了11.8%。</p>\n<p>网上也有爆料，近日深圳一家地产中介老板卷钱跑路，后被指出是贝壳平台加盟店德佑地产门店。据《证券时报》报道，德佑回复称已成立专项小组，正全力协助经纪人追佣。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f1cb0d10207320dfdb25b63cf470d6a\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但这仅仅是开始，房地产行业更多监管和调整政策，在今年下半年推出。</p>\n<p>据中原房地产研究中心统计，2021年7月份，全国房地产调控政策呈现井喷态势，高达66项的调控政策创年内新高。</p>\n<p>7月23日，住房和城乡建设部等8部门联合印发了《住房和城乡建设部等8部门关于持续整治规范房地产市场秩序的通知》，房地产开发企业、中介机构、住房租赁企业、物业服务企业、金融机构、网络媒体及从业人员，行业所有参与方全部被纳入监管，“力争用3年左右时间，实现房地产市场秩序明显好转”。</p>\n<p>房地产行业数据在进一步“回落”。据自媒体“未来可栖”统计，7月份头部房企出现销售额集体下降，万科、融创、恒大、绿城、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601155\">新城控股</a>等企业销售额环比降幅均超过20%，“虽然7月是往常说的淡季，但大规模的‘跳水’的确不常见”。</p>\n<p>据乐有家研究中心数据显示，7月深圳二手房过户2557套，同比下跌81%。深圳二手房成交量已经是4连跌。而在日前国家统计局刚刚发布的《2021年7月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》中显示，一二三线城市的商品房涨幅均出现回落。</p>\n<p>在Q2财报发布后的投资者电话会议中，贝壳董事长兼CEO彭永东表示，根据贝壳研究院的分析，下半年整体信贷环境收紧，各地限价等调控政策效应会逐渐显现，整体房地产交易预计会继续降温。</p>\n<p><b>贝壳的烦恼</b></p>\n<p>除了受到监管和房地产行业大环境的影响，贝壳还有其他的烦恼。</p>\n<p>2018年4月贝壳成立，它打破了房产中介线上和线下的界限，炒红了ACN模式（Agent&nbsp;Cooperate&nbsp;Network）。但因和链家的关系，贝壳一直被行业质疑垄断，“既做裁判，也做选手”。</p>\n<p>在今年阿里因垄断被罚182亿后，“反贝壳联盟”的发起者和坚定推行者、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58同城</a>CEO姚劲波在朋友圈称：\"房产交易领域有更明目张胆的二选一包装成自愿，强烈呼吁国家反垄断罚款贝壳40亿（4%标准）。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fecb06e6f94d5b0b7718d78cca8088\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"1080\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>4月13日，市场监管总局约谈了34家互联网企业，要求各平台企业要在&nbsp;一个月内全面自检自查，逐项彻底整改。贝壳位列其中。</p>\n<p>5月25日，路透社报道“中国市场监管总局已对贝壳找房启动反垄断调查”，贝壳紧急辟谣，贝壳美股盘前股价一度跌超9%。</p>\n<p>在最新的投资者电话会议上，彭永东表示，贝壳已经积极配合相关部门，认真自查和整改。而贝壳新任命的董事会执行董事、CFO徐涛也表示,目前贝壳未接受任何与反垄断问题相关的正式检查。</p>\n<p>除了解释涉嫌反垄断问题，贝壳还解释了“中介费用调整的传闻”。</p>\n<p>据财联社报道，7月底，一张“最新指示称房屋交易中介费不得超过当地社平工资3倍”的截图在网上流传。一般而言，贝壳的中介费按照房款总额的2.5%来计算，也有媒体报道中介费为2.7%，市场比较好的地区甚至能到3%。</p>\n<p>截图传出后，链家、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000560\">我爱我家</a>、中原地产、21世纪不动产等多家公司迅速对外辟谣称“没有接到相关通知”，但有不少人人为，这是监管即将规范二手房中介交易费用的信号。</p>\n<p>而在电话会议上，徐涛再次表示：“在与住建部沟通求证后，住建部明确回应此前并不知道这样的消息。”</p>\n<p>但不可否认，贝壳已经进入“一个量价调整时期”，快速增长、高利润阶段结束了，精细化运营时代开始了。</p>\n<p><b>寻找新的“难而正确的事”</b></p>\n<p>“做难而正确的事”，这是媒体给贝壳已故董事长左晖的标签，把客户放在首位，把尊严还给房产经纪人，打造一个极富战斗力的团队，这是左晖20年来一直在做的难而正确的事。</p>\n<p>在新的历史阶段，贝壳要找到新的难而正确的事。</p>\n<p>“在高速增长的市场环境里，经纪人往往聚焦‘签单’，而下行的市场更有利于我们进行精细化管理，做品质和效率的提升。”彭永东称。</p>\n<p>而Q2财报也在一定程度上透露，贝壳推动的长链条、多角色ACN模式有了初步的成效。上文提到，2021年Q2贝壳运营成本为188 亿元，其中94 亿元用于支付关联代理和其他销售渠道的佣金。</p>\n<p>据彭永东透露，第二季度贝壳52868家门店中，约30%的新增门店来自现有门店店东创业，过去12个月GTV超过5000万温饱线的门店数量超过19500家，占比37%。</p>\n<p>除了做精细化运营，贝壳也在推以家装为代表的新兴业务。</p>\n<p>在今年3月的投资人电话会议上，彭永东介绍了贝壳包括家装和金融的两大新兴业务，并表示“2021年贝壳将重点打造在家装服务的核心竞争力”。</p>\n<p>贝壳在家装领域也有了一定突破。今年6月，成都贝壳家居有限公司成立；7月，贝壳宣布收购“圣都家装”100%的股权；贝壳旗下的“被窝家装”SaaS系统V1.0也全面上线，在北京完成834单。</p>\n<p>彭永东强调：“贝壳是国家‘房住不炒’政策及各地调控政策的坚定支持者、维护者和践行者。”</p>\n<p>“任何组织都有自己的低点和高点，有至暗时点也有高光时刻。在高点有多么的冷静，在低点就有多么地坚定。”彭永东称。市值蒸发4000亿后，贝壳需要在降温的房产交易市场中找到新的“难而正确的事”，创造新的增长故事。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b535c9a2fb31d3a8e79d1d3d90fd21a","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157833330","content_text":"2020年8月13日，贝壳找房成功登陆纽交所，成为“中国居住服务平台第一股”。开盘首日，贝壳股价上涨87.2%，市值达到422亿美元。\n今年8月13日，贝壳已经公布了2021年第二季度财报，贝壳股价当天最低触碰到17.4美元，连续多日跌破发行价。\n上市一年，贝壳大起又大落。上市不到三个月，贝壳股价从20美元暴涨到79.4美元，市值最高达到 900 亿美元，远超万科、恒大。但随着创始人左晖不幸离世、房地产行业调控增加，反垄断风潮，以及整个中概股环境的低迷，贝壳股价一路震荡下跌。8月5日，贝壳第一次跌破发行价，市值蒸发了4000亿人民币。\n但贝壳的麻烦还不止于此。房地产行业的调控还在继续，降温也将持续。挥别高速增长，贝壳亟需找到新的“难而正确的事”。\n不完美的财报\n8月11日，贝壳公布了2021年第二季度未经审计的财务业绩。\n先看一些亮点数据：\n首先是交易额（GTV）大幅提升。2021年Q2贝壳的GTV达到1.22万亿元，同比增长 22.2%。2021上半年，总GTV达到2.29万亿元，同比增长达72.3%。\n其中，二手房GTV为6520亿元，同比增长11.7%；新房GTV为4983亿元，同比增长32.3%；新兴及其他业务GTV为706亿元，同比增长80.5%。\n其次，在GTV“强劲增长”的推动下，贝壳净收入也有了提升。财报显示，Q2贝壳净收入达到242 亿元，同比增长20%，也超过之前预期“225-235亿”的区间。2021年上半年，贝壳总净收入为449 亿元，同比增长64.6% 。\n三大业务中，新兴和其他服务的净收入贡献了7亿元，业务增长幅度最高，同比增长达到50.6%；新房交易净收入达到105 亿元，同比增长31.9%；二手房净收入为96亿元，但增速放缓，同比增长仅为4.9%。\n除此之外，2021年上半年，贝壳门店数量为52868家，比一年前增长 25.1%；代理商数量为548600人，增长20.3%。移动月活跃用户 (MAU)平均为5210万，同比增长33.5%。\n但贝壳Q2财报的数据并不完美，尤其是净利润、毛利率双双下跌。\n虽然2021年上半年总净利润在增长，但贝壳Q2的数据却非常“拉胯”。财报显示，2020年Q2贝壳净利润为28.39 亿元，今年Q2则为11亿元，同比大降61%；而调整后净利润为16.38 亿元，同比大降60.7%。\n另一方面，贝壳Q2毛利也大幅下降。2021 年Q2贝壳毛利润为53 亿元，毛利率为 22.1%，而在2020年，这两个数据分别为66 亿元和32.5%，毛利润和毛利率同比分别下降19.7%和32%。\n在净利润下降的同时，成本却在增加。财报显示，2021年Q2贝壳运营成本为188 亿元，同比增加38.6%。\n最后，对于2021年第三季度业务展望，贝壳也给了一个谨慎的数字：公司预计总净收入将在人民币145亿-155亿元之间，同比下降约24.6%-29.4%。\n虽然贝壳在Q2取得了一定成绩，但大跌了60%的净利润、以及对未来谨慎的预期，依旧给投资人带来一定恐慌。贝壳Q2财报发布后，股价大跌6%。摩根大通宣布将贝壳的评级从“跑赢大市”下调至“中性”，目标价从86美元下调至24美元。杰富瑞也将贝壳的目标下调至22.4美元。\n“史上最严监管时代”\n在解释毛利率下降原因时，贝壳在财报中称：“成屋销售市场受到一系列市场降温措施的影响，导致成屋交易收入对总净收入的贡献相对较低。”\n实际上，近一年房地产行业都在经历“史上最严监管时代”：2020年8月，“三道红线”出台；十四五规划再次强调“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒”，要“稳地价、稳房价、稳预期”；12月底，央行明确房地产贷款集中度管理，一二线城市出现银行个人住房贷款直接停贷的情况。\n而据中原房地产研究中心统计，2021年1至7月全国房地产调整多达352起，上年同期则为336起。\n据贝壳研究院报告显示，随着二季度对于“经营贷”排查、银行额度收紧等资金端调控政策的推出，以及一系列房地产市场调控政策的发布，新房市场二季度成交量增速降到2019年水平。\n对二手房的监管也在加强，比如，打击经营性贷款非法流入房地产领域，上调首套房和二手房房贷利率。今年2月，深圳首创“二手房指导价”，要求银行按照指导价格贷款。\n月成交5000套是深圳楼市的“荣枯线”。据乐有家研究中心数据统计，在“指导价”实施后，深圳2-6月二手房成交量分别为4166套、6789套、4877套、3027套、2575套，除了3月份数据反弹，深圳其余几个月交易量均低于5000套。\n除了成交量骤降，深圳二手房价格也被调控。国家统计局数据显示，深圳二手房价格指数环比下滑0.1个百分点，据媒体报道，这是自2019年7月以来，深圳市二手房价格指数的首次下滑。\n二手房市场降温直接导致房产中介生存受到挑战。据深圳房地产中介协会统计，截至今年6月，深圳持牌中介人员数为45458人。2021年1-6月份以来，从业人员数量同比下滑了11.8%。\n网上也有爆料，近日深圳一家地产中介老板卷钱跑路，后被指出是贝壳平台加盟店德佑地产门店。据《证券时报》报道，德佑回复称已成立专项小组，正全力协助经纪人追佣。\n\n但这仅仅是开始，房地产行业更多监管和调整政策，在今年下半年推出。\n据中原房地产研究中心统计，2021年7月份，全国房地产调控政策呈现井喷态势，高达66项的调控政策创年内新高。\n7月23日，住房和城乡建设部等8部门联合印发了《住房和城乡建设部等8部门关于持续整治规范房地产市场秩序的通知》，房地产开发企业、中介机构、住房租赁企业、物业服务企业、金融机构、网络媒体及从业人员，行业所有参与方全部被纳入监管，“力争用3年左右时间，实现房地产市场秩序明显好转”。\n房地产行业数据在进一步“回落”。据自媒体“未来可栖”统计，7月份头部房企出现销售额集体下降，万科、融创、恒大、绿城、新城控股等企业销售额环比降幅均超过20%，“虽然7月是往常说的淡季，但大规模的‘跳水’的确不常见”。\n据乐有家研究中心数据显示，7月深圳二手房过户2557套，同比下跌81%。深圳二手房成交量已经是4连跌。而在日前国家统计局刚刚发布的《2021年7月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》中显示，一二三线城市的商品房涨幅均出现回落。\n在Q2财报发布后的投资者电话会议中，贝壳董事长兼CEO彭永东表示，根据贝壳研究院的分析，下半年整体信贷环境收紧，各地限价等调控政策效应会逐渐显现，整体房地产交易预计会继续降温。\n贝壳的烦恼\n除了受到监管和房地产行业大环境的影响，贝壳还有其他的烦恼。\n2018年4月贝壳成立，它打破了房产中介线上和线下的界限，炒红了ACN模式（Agent Cooperate Network）。但因和链家的关系，贝壳一直被行业质疑垄断，“既做裁判，也做选手”。\n在今年阿里因垄断被罚182亿后，“反贝壳联盟”的发起者和坚定推行者、58同城CEO姚劲波在朋友圈称：\"房产交易领域有更明目张胆的二选一包装成自愿，强烈呼吁国家反垄断罚款贝壳40亿（4%标准）。”\n\n4月13日，市场监管总局约谈了34家互联网企业，要求各平台企业要在 一个月内全面自检自查，逐项彻底整改。贝壳位列其中。\n5月25日，路透社报道“中国市场监管总局已对贝壳找房启动反垄断调查”，贝壳紧急辟谣，贝壳美股盘前股价一度跌超9%。\n在最新的投资者电话会议上，彭永东表示，贝壳已经积极配合相关部门，认真自查和整改。而贝壳新任命的董事会执行董事、CFO徐涛也表示,目前贝壳未接受任何与反垄断问题相关的正式检查。\n除了解释涉嫌反垄断问题，贝壳还解释了“中介费用调整的传闻”。\n据财联社报道，7月底，一张“最新指示称房屋交易中介费不得超过当地社平工资3倍”的截图在网上流传。一般而言，贝壳的中介费按照房款总额的2.5%来计算，也有媒体报道中介费为2.7%，市场比较好的地区甚至能到3%。\n截图传出后，链家、我爱我家、中原地产、21世纪不动产等多家公司迅速对外辟谣称“没有接到相关通知”，但有不少人人为，这是监管即将规范二手房中介交易费用的信号。\n而在电话会议上，徐涛再次表示：“在与住建部沟通求证后，住建部明确回应此前并不知道这样的消息。”\n但不可否认，贝壳已经进入“一个量价调整时期”，快速增长、高利润阶段结束了，精细化运营时代开始了。\n寻找新的“难而正确的事”\n“做难而正确的事”，这是媒体给贝壳已故董事长左晖的标签，把客户放在首位，把尊严还给房产经纪人，打造一个极富战斗力的团队，这是左晖20年来一直在做的难而正确的事。\n在新的历史阶段，贝壳要找到新的难而正确的事。\n“在高速增长的市场环境里，经纪人往往聚焦‘签单’，而下行的市场更有利于我们进行精细化管理，做品质和效率的提升。”彭永东称。\n而Q2财报也在一定程度上透露，贝壳推动的长链条、多角色ACN模式有了初步的成效。上文提到，2021年Q2贝壳运营成本为188 亿元，其中94 亿元用于支付关联代理和其他销售渠道的佣金。\n据彭永东透露，第二季度贝壳52868家门店中，约30%的新增门店来自现有门店店东创业，过去12个月GTV超过5000万温饱线的门店数量超过19500家，占比37%。\n除了做精细化运营，贝壳也在推以家装为代表的新兴业务。\n在今年3月的投资人电话会议上，彭永东介绍了贝壳包括家装和金融的两大新兴业务，并表示“2021年贝壳将重点打造在家装服务的核心竞争力”。\n贝壳在家装领域也有了一定突破。今年6月，成都贝壳家居有限公司成立；7月，贝壳宣布收购“圣都家装”100%的股权；贝壳旗下的“被窝家装”SaaS系统V1.0也全面上线，在北京完成834单。\n彭永东强调：“贝壳是国家‘房住不炒’政策及各地调控政策的坚定支持者、维护者和践行者。”\n“任何组织都有自己的低点和高点，有至暗时点也有高光时刻。在高点有多么的冷静，在低点就有多么地坚定。”彭永东称。市值蒸发4000亿后，贝壳需要在降温的房产交易市场中找到新的“难而正确的事”，创造新的增长故事。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839167730,"gmtCreate":1629127738320,"gmtModify":1631891386643,"author":{"id":"3585809361052776","authorId":"3585809361052776","authorIdStr":"3585809361052776","name":"Lifen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/801f761948d24ee84d3e214b240fee16","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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