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Debdebz

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2021-07-30

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$keep going up please

2021-07-30

Adobe.. interesting

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-18

Time to go up

2021-08-06

Seems to be going up rapidly

2021-08-06

To buy or not to buy

Uber, Lyft Drive Investors Away

2021-08-06

Will it keep increasing?

2021-07-29

Apple👍🏻

Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business

2021-07-29

[Grin]

Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business

2021-07-29

Soaring back up

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to go up","listText":"Time to go up","text":"Time to go up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20d65314760062c46a2dad5b276d516a","width":"1125","height":"3786"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831869824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893081866,"gmtCreate":1628221156355,"gmtModify":1633752459613,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems to be going up rapidly","listText":"Seems to be going up rapidly","text":"Seems to be going up rapidly","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12d777f2d1ed82eeb6b4b4f5081d2b81","width":"1125","height":"3887"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893081866","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899627936,"gmtCreate":1628180315025,"gmtModify":1633752847852,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To buy or not to buy&nbsp;","listText":"To buy or not to buy&nbsp;","text":"To buy or not to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899627936","repostId":"1151835705","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151835705","pubTimestamp":1628168917,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151835705?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 21:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Lyft Drive Investors Away","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151835705","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Ride-hailing companies have spent dearly to compete for the same riders; now they are spending to co","content":"<blockquote>\n Ride-hailing companies have spent dearly to compete for the same riders; now they are spending to compete for the same drivers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Is the optimal strategy in ride-hailing growth or profits? Investors can’t have it both ways.</p>\n<p>AfterLyftLYFT-10.56%said it achieved profitability on the basis of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization on Tuesday, Uber said Wednesday that its losses deepened sequentially on that basis as it made investments in driver recovery. Shares of Lyft fell more than 9% the day after its report while Uber’s shares fell 8% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of itssecond quarter results.</p>\n<p>Investors have become uncomfortable with ride-hailing companies paying dearly to compete for the same riders as they work to grow their market share. Now they arepaying to compete for the same driversas theywork to rebuild their supplyafter the pandemic decimated ride-hailing demand.</p>\n<p>They may not be investing equally. Lyft said it significantly increased its investments in incentives and sign-on bonuses to boost its driver base in the second quarter, expecting elevated incentives to continue into the third quarter. But Uber appears to have been more aggressive. While the company reported overall revenue that beat Wall Street’s estimate, it also lost 58% more than analysts had forecast on an adjusted Ebitda basis.</p>\n<p>At this point, it is still unclear which company’s investment strategy is yielding the most bang for its buck. Lyft said its rideshare rides in the second quarter were still “well below” the levels reached in the fourth quarter of 2019. While not a perfect comparison, Uber’s second quarter trips—a reflection of both supply and demand—were down just over 20% from the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f98a2ba57a4b018b3db0d420b862bc4\" tg-width=\"338\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Lyft’s results show its active riders were still down more than 21% in the second quarter from the same period in 2019. The company also said its sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue in the second quarter were near record lows. This is in part a reflection of its depressed driver count: It isn’t worth over-spending to acquire customers you can’t even service. By contrast, Uber was able to grow its monthly active platform consumers in the second quarter relative to the same period two years ago.</p>\n<p>While Lyft was clear this week that it likes its chances as a ride-hailing pure play, Uber continued to stress its unique value proposition marrying consumers’ ride-hailing and food-delivery needs, noting cross-pollination. Investors will now need to place their bets on which strategy will emerge from the pandemic in a more sustainable position.</p>\n<p>Uber’s Chief Executive Officer Dara Khosrowshahi has said its mobility business has been an even more effective customer acquisition tool for its delivery business than dollars spent on delivery marketing. On Wednesday the company said its consumers who engage with both its mobility and its delivery businesses are now generating nearly half of its overall gross bookings, implying significant customer crossover.</p>\n<p>But a leaner business might be easier to control. 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Meanwhile, Uber seems confident it has found a path to near-term profitability, but it is unclear to what degree further investments in new drivers will be needed as consumer demand continues to improve.</p>\n<p>Especially with the Covid-19 Delta variant continuing to spread, investors looking to bank on either strategy today may be left waiting for a ride.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Lyft Drive Investors Away</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Lyft Drive Investors Away\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 21:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-drive-investors-away-11628115638?mod=markets_lead_pos12><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Ride-hailing companies have spent dearly to compete for the same riders; now they are spending to compete for the same drivers.\n\nIs the optimal strategy in ride-hailing growth or profits? Investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-drive-investors-away-11628115638?mod=markets_lead_pos12\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步","LYFT":"Lyft, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-drive-investors-away-11628115638?mod=markets_lead_pos12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151835705","content_text":"Ride-hailing companies have spent dearly to compete for the same riders; now they are spending to compete for the same drivers.\n\nIs the optimal strategy in ride-hailing growth or profits? Investors can’t have it both ways.\nAfterLyftLYFT-10.56%said it achieved profitability on the basis of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization on Tuesday, Uber said Wednesday that its losses deepened sequentially on that basis as it made investments in driver recovery. Shares of Lyft fell more than 9% the day after its report while Uber’s shares fell 8% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of itssecond quarter results.\nInvestors have become uncomfortable with ride-hailing companies paying dearly to compete for the same riders as they work to grow their market share. Now they arepaying to compete for the same driversas theywork to rebuild their supplyafter the pandemic decimated ride-hailing demand.\nThey may not be investing equally. Lyft said it significantly increased its investments in incentives and sign-on bonuses to boost its driver base in the second quarter, expecting elevated incentives to continue into the third quarter. But Uber appears to have been more aggressive. While the company reported overall revenue that beat Wall Street’s estimate, it also lost 58% more than analysts had forecast on an adjusted Ebitda basis.\nAt this point, it is still unclear which company’s investment strategy is yielding the most bang for its buck. Lyft said its rideshare rides in the second quarter were still “well below” the levels reached in the fourth quarter of 2019. While not a perfect comparison, Uber’s second quarter trips—a reflection of both supply and demand—were down just over 20% from the same period.\nLyft’s results show its active riders were still down more than 21% in the second quarter from the same period in 2019. The company also said its sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue in the second quarter were near record lows. This is in part a reflection of its depressed driver count: It isn’t worth over-spending to acquire customers you can’t even service. By contrast, Uber was able to grow its monthly active platform consumers in the second quarter relative to the same period two years ago.\nWhile Lyft was clear this week that it likes its chances as a ride-hailing pure play, Uber continued to stress its unique value proposition marrying consumers’ ride-hailing and food-delivery needs, noting cross-pollination. Investors will now need to place their bets on which strategy will emerge from the pandemic in a more sustainable position.\nUber’s Chief Executive Officer Dara Khosrowshahi has said its mobility business has been an even more effective customer acquisition tool for its delivery business than dollars spent on delivery marketing. On Wednesday the company said its consumers who engage with both its mobility and its delivery businesses are now generating nearly half of its overall gross bookings, implying significant customer crossover.\nBut a leaner business might be easier to control. While Uber continues to expect it won’t turn a profit, even on an adjusted Ebitda basis, until the fourth quarter of this year,Lyft was able to do soearlier, in part by pulling harder on simple levers. The company said revenue per ride increased 7% sequentially in the second quarter, counteracting still depressed ride volume due to driver shortages. Both companies have raised prices on U.S. ride-hailing transactions amid the pandemic. But fresh Edison Trends data show for the week ended July 19, Uber’s consumers spent 24% more on transactions than they did the comparable week last year, while Lyft’s consumers spent 35% more.\nIt is worth noting that, while Lyft has boasted about its ability to achieve so-called profits, it also clearly defined itself on a conference call Tuesday as “a growth company.” All in, its net loss still totaled hundreds of millions in the second quarter, although it narrowed. Meanwhile, Uber seems confident it has found a path to near-term profitability, but it is unclear to what degree further investments in new drivers will be needed as consumer demand continues to improve.\nEspecially with the Covid-19 Delta variant continuing to spread, investors looking to bank on either strategy today may be left waiting for a ride.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899625728,"gmtCreate":1628180194864,"gmtModify":1633752848831,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it keep increasing?&nbsp;","listText":"Will it keep increasing?&nbsp;","text":"Will it keep increasing?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fe69c73483754594e149db5bf11fae","width":"1125","height":"3613"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899625728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806296564,"gmtCreate":1627656384758,"gmtModify":1633757352237,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Adobe.. interesting","listText":"Adobe.. interesting","text":"Adobe.. interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806296564","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806293828,"gmtCreate":1627656242864,"gmtModify":1633757355032,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>keep going up please&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>keep going up please&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$keep going up please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a1918f34e68e5db9394cb91a367ef1f","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806293828","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801758035,"gmtCreate":1627537198527,"gmtModify":1633763995479,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple👍🏻","listText":"Apple👍🏻","text":"Apple👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801758035","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182616893?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>\n <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>\n <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>\n <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p>\n<p><b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p>\n<p>No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p>\n<p>For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p>\n<p>Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p>\n<p>That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p>\n<p>And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p>\n<p><b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p>\n<p>Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p>\n<p>Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p>\n<p>So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p>\n<p>This was just a great quarter.</p>\n<p><b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p>\n<p>The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p>\n<p>For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p>\n<p>These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p>\n<p>As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p>\n<p>So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p>\n<p>In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p>\n<p>Products: $68 billion</p>\n<p>Services: $33 billion</p>\n<p>To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p>\n<p>I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801751973,"gmtCreate":1627537107392,"gmtModify":1633763996045,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801751973","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182616893?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>\n <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>\n <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>\n <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p>\n<p><b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p>\n<p>No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p>\n<p>For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p>\n<p>Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p>\n<p>That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p>\n<p>And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p>\n<p><b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p>\n<p>Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p>\n<p>Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p>\n<p>So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p>\n<p>This was just a great quarter.</p>\n<p><b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p>\n<p>The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p>\n<p>For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p>\n<p>These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p>\n<p>As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p>\n<p>So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p>\n<p>In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p>\n<p>Products: $68 billion</p>\n<p>Services: $33 billion</p>\n<p>To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p>\n<p>I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801727860,"gmtCreate":1627536926650,"gmtModify":1633763997950,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Soaring back up&nbsp;","listText":"Soaring back up&nbsp;","text":"Soaring back up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d6aa4e69c7b0e3bfaed56fd68731b7","width":"1125","height":"3439"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801727860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":806293828,"gmtCreate":1627656242864,"gmtModify":1633757355032,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585485440933501","idStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>keep going up please&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>keep going up please&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$keep going up please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a1918f34e68e5db9394cb91a367ef1f","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806293828","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806296564,"gmtCreate":1627656384758,"gmtModify":1633757352237,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585485440933501","idStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Adobe.. interesting","listText":"Adobe.. interesting","text":"Adobe.. interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806296564","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831869824,"gmtCreate":1629300712968,"gmtModify":1633685837698,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585485440933501","idStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to go up","listText":"Time to go up","text":"Time to go up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20d65314760062c46a2dad5b276d516a","width":"1125","height":"3786"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831869824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893081866,"gmtCreate":1628221156355,"gmtModify":1633752459613,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585485440933501","idStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems to be going up rapidly","listText":"Seems to be going up rapidly","text":"Seems to be going up rapidly","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12d777f2d1ed82eeb6b4b4f5081d2b81","width":"1125","height":"3887"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893081866","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899627936,"gmtCreate":1628180315025,"gmtModify":1633752847852,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585485440933501","idStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To buy or not to buy&nbsp;","listText":"To buy or not to buy&nbsp;","text":"To buy or not to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899627936","repostId":"1151835705","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151835705","pubTimestamp":1628168917,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151835705?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 21:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Lyft Drive Investors Away","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151835705","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Ride-hailing companies have spent dearly to compete for the same riders; now they are spending to co","content":"<blockquote>\n Ride-hailing companies have spent dearly to compete for the same riders; now they are spending to compete for the same drivers.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Is the optimal strategy in ride-hailing growth or profits? Investors can’t have it both ways.</p>\n<p>AfterLyftLYFT-10.56%said it achieved profitability on the basis of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization on Tuesday, Uber said Wednesday that its losses deepened sequentially on that basis as it made investments in driver recovery. Shares of Lyft fell more than 9% the day after its report while Uber’s shares fell 8% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of itssecond quarter results.</p>\n<p>Investors have become uncomfortable with ride-hailing companies paying dearly to compete for the same riders as they work to grow their market share. Now they arepaying to compete for the same driversas theywork to rebuild their supplyafter the pandemic decimated ride-hailing demand.</p>\n<p>They may not be investing equally. Lyft said it significantly increased its investments in incentives and sign-on bonuses to boost its driver base in the second quarter, expecting elevated incentives to continue into the third quarter. But Uber appears to have been more aggressive. While the company reported overall revenue that beat Wall Street’s estimate, it also lost 58% more than analysts had forecast on an adjusted Ebitda basis.</p>\n<p>At this point, it is still unclear which company’s investment strategy is yielding the most bang for its buck. Lyft said its rideshare rides in the second quarter were still “well below” the levels reached in the fourth quarter of 2019. While not a perfect comparison, Uber’s second quarter trips—a reflection of both supply and demand—were down just over 20% from the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f98a2ba57a4b018b3db0d420b862bc4\" tg-width=\"338\" tg-height=\"422\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Lyft’s results show its active riders were still down more than 21% in the second quarter from the same period in 2019. The company also said its sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue in the second quarter were near record lows. This is in part a reflection of its depressed driver count: It isn’t worth over-spending to acquire customers you can’t even service. By contrast, Uber was able to grow its monthly active platform consumers in the second quarter relative to the same period two years ago.</p>\n<p>While Lyft was clear this week that it likes its chances as a ride-hailing pure play, Uber continued to stress its unique value proposition marrying consumers’ ride-hailing and food-delivery needs, noting cross-pollination. Investors will now need to place their bets on which strategy will emerge from the pandemic in a more sustainable position.</p>\n<p>Uber’s Chief Executive Officer Dara Khosrowshahi has said its mobility business has been an even more effective customer acquisition tool for its delivery business than dollars spent on delivery marketing. On Wednesday the company said its consumers who engage with both its mobility and its delivery businesses are now generating nearly half of its overall gross bookings, implying significant customer crossover.</p>\n<p>But a leaner business might be easier to control. While Uber continues to expect it won’t turn a profit, even on an adjusted Ebitda basis, until the fourth quarter of this year,Lyft was able to do soearlier, in part by pulling harder on simple levers. The company said revenue per ride increased 7% sequentially in the second quarter, counteracting still depressed ride volume due to driver shortages. Both companies have raised prices on U.S. ride-hailing transactions amid the pandemic. But fresh Edison Trends data show for the week ended July 19, Uber’s consumers spent 24% more on transactions than they did the comparable week last year, while Lyft’s consumers spent 35% more.</p>\n<p>It is worth noting that, while Lyft has boasted about its ability to achieve so-called profits, it also clearly defined itself on a conference call Tuesday as “a growth company.” All in, its net loss still totaled hundreds of millions in the second quarter, although it narrowed. Meanwhile, Uber seems confident it has found a path to near-term profitability, but it is unclear to what degree further investments in new drivers will be needed as consumer demand continues to improve.</p>\n<p>Especially with the Covid-19 Delta variant continuing to spread, investors looking to bank on either strategy today may be left waiting for a ride.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Lyft Drive Investors Away</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Lyft Drive Investors Away\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 21:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-drive-investors-away-11628115638?mod=markets_lead_pos12><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Ride-hailing companies have spent dearly to compete for the same riders; now they are spending to compete for the same drivers.\n\nIs the optimal strategy in ride-hailing growth or profits? Investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-drive-investors-away-11628115638?mod=markets_lead_pos12\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UBER":"优步","LYFT":"Lyft, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-lyft-drive-investors-away-11628115638?mod=markets_lead_pos12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151835705","content_text":"Ride-hailing companies have spent dearly to compete for the same riders; now they are spending to compete for the same drivers.\n\nIs the optimal strategy in ride-hailing growth or profits? Investors can’t have it both ways.\nAfterLyftLYFT-10.56%said it achieved profitability on the basis of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization on Tuesday, Uber said Wednesday that its losses deepened sequentially on that basis as it made investments in driver recovery. Shares of Lyft fell more than 9% the day after its report while Uber’s shares fell 8% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of itssecond quarter results.\nInvestors have become uncomfortable with ride-hailing companies paying dearly to compete for the same riders as they work to grow their market share. Now they arepaying to compete for the same driversas theywork to rebuild their supplyafter the pandemic decimated ride-hailing demand.\nThey may not be investing equally. Lyft said it significantly increased its investments in incentives and sign-on bonuses to boost its driver base in the second quarter, expecting elevated incentives to continue into the third quarter. But Uber appears to have been more aggressive. While the company reported overall revenue that beat Wall Street’s estimate, it also lost 58% more than analysts had forecast on an adjusted Ebitda basis.\nAt this point, it is still unclear which company’s investment strategy is yielding the most bang for its buck. Lyft said its rideshare rides in the second quarter were still “well below” the levels reached in the fourth quarter of 2019. While not a perfect comparison, Uber’s second quarter trips—a reflection of both supply and demand—were down just over 20% from the same period.\nLyft’s results show its active riders were still down more than 21% in the second quarter from the same period in 2019. The company also said its sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue in the second quarter were near record lows. This is in part a reflection of its depressed driver count: It isn’t worth over-spending to acquire customers you can’t even service. By contrast, Uber was able to grow its monthly active platform consumers in the second quarter relative to the same period two years ago.\nWhile Lyft was clear this week that it likes its chances as a ride-hailing pure play, Uber continued to stress its unique value proposition marrying consumers’ ride-hailing and food-delivery needs, noting cross-pollination. Investors will now need to place their bets on which strategy will emerge from the pandemic in a more sustainable position.\nUber’s Chief Executive Officer Dara Khosrowshahi has said its mobility business has been an even more effective customer acquisition tool for its delivery business than dollars spent on delivery marketing. On Wednesday the company said its consumers who engage with both its mobility and its delivery businesses are now generating nearly half of its overall gross bookings, implying significant customer crossover.\nBut a leaner business might be easier to control. While Uber continues to expect it won’t turn a profit, even on an adjusted Ebitda basis, until the fourth quarter of this year,Lyft was able to do soearlier, in part by pulling harder on simple levers. The company said revenue per ride increased 7% sequentially in the second quarter, counteracting still depressed ride volume due to driver shortages. Both companies have raised prices on U.S. ride-hailing transactions amid the pandemic. But fresh Edison Trends data show for the week ended July 19, Uber’s consumers spent 24% more on transactions than they did the comparable week last year, while Lyft’s consumers spent 35% more.\nIt is worth noting that, while Lyft has boasted about its ability to achieve so-called profits, it also clearly defined itself on a conference call Tuesday as “a growth company.” All in, its net loss still totaled hundreds of millions in the second quarter, although it narrowed. Meanwhile, Uber seems confident it has found a path to near-term profitability, but it is unclear to what degree further investments in new drivers will be needed as consumer demand continues to improve.\nEspecially with the Covid-19 Delta variant continuing to spread, investors looking to bank on either strategy today may be left waiting for a ride.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899625728,"gmtCreate":1628180194864,"gmtModify":1633752848831,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585485440933501","idStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it keep increasing?&nbsp;","listText":"Will it keep increasing?&nbsp;","text":"Will it keep increasing?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fe69c73483754594e149db5bf11fae","width":"1125","height":"3613"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899625728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801758035,"gmtCreate":1627537198527,"gmtModify":1633763995479,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585485440933501","idStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple👍🏻","listText":"Apple👍🏻","text":"Apple👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801758035","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182616893?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>\n <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>\n <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>\n <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p>\n<p><b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p>\n<p>No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p>\n<p>For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p>\n<p>Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p>\n<p>That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p>\n<p>And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p>\n<p><b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p>\n<p>Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p>\n<p>Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p>\n<p>So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p>\n<p>This was just a great quarter.</p>\n<p><b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p>\n<p>The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p>\n<p>For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p>\n<p>These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p>\n<p>As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p>\n<p>So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p>\n<p>In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p>\n<p>Products: $68 billion</p>\n<p>Services: $33 billion</p>\n<p>To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p>\n<p>I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801751973,"gmtCreate":1627537107392,"gmtModify":1633763996045,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585485440933501","idStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801751973","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182616893?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>\n <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>\n <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>\n <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p>\n<p><b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p>\n<p>No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p>\n<p>For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p>\n<p>Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p>\n<p>That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p>\n<p>And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p>\n<p><b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p>\n<p>Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p>\n<p>Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p>\n<p>So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p>\n<p>This was just a great quarter.</p>\n<p><b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p>\n<p>The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p>\n<p>For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p>\n<p>These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p>\n<p>As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p>\n<p>So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p>\n<p>In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p>\n<p>Products: $68 billion</p>\n<p>Services: $33 billion</p>\n<p>To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p>\n<p>I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801727860,"gmtCreate":1627536926650,"gmtModify":1633763997950,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585485440933501","idStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Soaring back up&nbsp;","listText":"Soaring back up&nbsp;","text":"Soaring back up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d6aa4e69c7b0e3bfaed56fd68731b7","width":"1125","height":"3439"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801727860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}