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TheresaHao
08-08
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
170 买进
TheresaHao
03-11
拭目以待吧,大家做好准备迎接新挑战。[财迷]
英伟达“鲸落”,哪些板块将升起?
TheresaHao
02-18
是喜还是忧?
TheresaHao
01-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉突破支撑位,下一个支撑位是209, 让我们拭目以待,时时关注[胜利]
TheresaHao
01-05
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
看多必须的
TheresaHao
2023-12-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
一直看好👌
TheresaHao
2023-11-21
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
永远支持
TheresaHao
2023-03-08
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
一直对特斯拉充满信心,
TheresaHao
2023-03-04
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
一直充满信心的好股。
TheresaHao
2021-11-18
$先瑞达医疗-B(06669)$
被套了两个多月,终于回升到一桶水了。快被煮熟了[惊讶] [捂脸]
TheresaHao
2021-11-13
$容联云(RAAS)$
被套了几个月,终于有点儿曙光啦
TheresaHao
2021-08-05
领悟颇深,
抱歉,原内容已删除
TheresaHao
2021-08-02
值得关注👍
TheresaHao
2021-07-20
翻不了身了
抱歉,原内容已删除
TheresaHao
2021-06-25
又一签,把握好时机
TheresaHao
2021-06-25
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
抱歉,原内容已删除
TheresaHao
2021-06-24
希望吃一口大肉,
TheresaHao
2021-06-21
大家都来吧,喝下这杯夏季茶。
TheresaHao
2021-06-18
才中5股,小白菜上路,
TheresaHao
2021-06-16
大家购了吗?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>170 买进","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>170 买进","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 170 买进","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336028567269480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283209931366720,"gmtCreate":1710171514551,"gmtModify":1710171516453,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拭目以待吧,大家做好准备迎接新挑战。[财迷] ","listText":"拭目以待吧,大家做好准备迎接新挑战。[财迷] ","text":"拭目以待吧,大家做好准备迎接新挑战。[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283209931366720","repostId":"2418364483","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2418364483","pubTimestamp":1710165866,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2418364483?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-11 22:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达“鲸落”,哪些板块将升起?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2418364483","media":"智通财经网","summary":"围绕英伟达的炒作,有短暂有熄火的迹象。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>继上周五跌超5%之后,周一,英伟达开盘后续跌超2%。围绕英伟达的炒作,似乎有短暂有熄火的迹象。至少赚钱效应会消退,今天买明天就盈利的这种美好岁月,恐怕不会那么多了。<strong>但金钱永不眠,一只王道龙头炒作泡沫股的熄灭,市场热点会向其它板块扩散。</strong>唯美来讲,有一种“鲸落”之感。本文尝试剖析英伟达的炒作熄火之后,哪些板块或公司将受益。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900a77f83499fd72e02150ef05e28c44\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>半导体制造业</strong>半导体是一个巨大的产业链,其上下游分工各有不同。英伟达和AMD这种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5HT.SI\">皇冠</a>上的明珠,是属于无厂设计(Fabless)这个细分领域。<strong>那么他们设计出来的芯片由谁负责生产?答案是:芯片代工厂。</strong>其代表就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>。此外还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>、格罗方德、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">联电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>等公司。人们看到了英伟达的H100订单排到了2025年,人们期待的一周后即将举办的2024年全球GTC大会上老黄会透露传说的大杀器B100的订货情况。但这些订单最终都会落到一众芯片代工商身上,这里为英伟达代工的主要是台积电。因此,英伟达的海量H100订单,过不了多久就会转化为台积电的业绩。市场目前给到英伟达的股价,已经包含了2024年全年H100以及可能的B100(或H200)的销售额;但市场对台积电的定价,还只是局限于已有的业绩。因此,相比于英伟达的高估,台积电则是低估。更为有利的是,台积电的业绩是高频数据。台积电会每个月公布一次当月的销售额。因此我们能够非常直观与身临其境地看到其业绩爆发的过程。</p><p><strong>如果说台积电卡了英伟达的脖子,那么谁又会卡台积电的脖子?答案是:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>。</strong>生产芯片最重要的环节是光刻,这已经是几乎<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>都具备的常识了。而光刻的主要设备就是光刻机。目前全球能够生产高端光刻机的企业,有且只有一家,就是阿斯麦。阿斯麦目前的秘密武器杀手锏高孔径极紫外光光刻机(EUV)的售价达到3.8亿美元一台!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938f46fd566d5cad0af3c3be8fd759eb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\"/></p><p>根据阿斯麦的披露信息,目前这款EUV光刻机的订货量已经有十几台。目前台积电并没有订购这款产品,但预计这一波产能高潮过去之后,台积电将开启一波换装高峰。到那时阿斯麦将迎来业绩爆发。这一波有望在2025年下半年之后到来。阿斯麦在全球有两个小兄弟,就是我们比较熟悉的日本光学两兄弟,尼康和佳能。这两家生产的低端光刻机与阿斯麦有产品代际上的差距。</p><p><strong>锂电、光伏、储能</strong>近期比较有趣的一个现象是,老黄对于自家股票的剧烈震荡没有表态,而是开始转向关注能源问题。根据媒体披露,老黄在一次公开演讲中表示:“AI的尽头是光伏和储能!我们不能只想着算力,如果只考虑计算器,我们需要烧掉14个地球的能源。”无独有偶,另外两位科技大佬也发表了类似的观点。OpenAI的创始人山姆·奥特曼也提出了类似的看法。奥特曼表示,“未来AI的技术取决于能源,我们需要更多的光伏和储能。”而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO马斯克预计,两年内年将由“缺硅”变为“缺电”,而这可能阻碍AI的发展。甚至,近期关于晶圆厂对水的需求也进入分析师的讨论范畴。</p><p>是的,你没听错,水。H2O。这些观点和言论似乎让资本市场找到了下一个炒作的方向,即能源。当然,传统能源是一方面,但新能源也将再度迎来资本的加持。特别是老黄、山姆奥特曼以及马斯克都提到的光伏,储能等板块,已经有资金开始布局,春江水暖鸭先知。例如港股板块去年跌得梨花带雨的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">信义光能</a>,股民无奈徒呼“光伏已死”,谁知最近股价底部反弹,涨幅已经接近1倍。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8914f1bf4c31d2c9fbf7d182fde0239\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>A股也反应热烈。锂电与储能龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>,直接15cm大阳线拉起来,圆底反转意味正浓。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">亿纬锂能</a>也是类似走势,13cm大阳线。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301358\">湖南裕能</a>涨幅则为9.74%。主板的恩捷则在午后直接拉涨停。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afbbdfd7695ba9734d5e13c7cd5eb4f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>此外,光伏板块也有所反应,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>涨9.83%,福莱特7.82%。龙头隆基和通威相对冷静,涨幅分别为2.93%和2.1%,晶澳和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688599\">天合光能</a>也相对温和。考虑到光伏板块已经涨得比较多,因此可能需要消化一段时间再继续。</p><p>自2022年下半年锂电光伏储能等板块炒作见顶之后,至今已经接近两年,这个过程中叠加新能车的内卷逐渐激烈,乃至倾覆。<strong>目前整个新能源板块需要新的故事和逻辑,这一波算力暴增对能源的需求,有望为新能源板块注入一剂强心针,值得期待。</strong>最后有必要提到的是,传统能源板块近期也普遍走强,例如港股的中海油,妥妥的大牛股。这一波“算力耗能”的逻辑能否推高油价,有待进一步观察。但仅就目前的油价而言,已经足够支撑中海油等传统能源股维持目前价位,甚至进一步创新高了。</p><p><strong>总结</strong>年初芯片板块迅雷不及掩耳的一波疯狂牛市,以及英伟达的闪电式冲顶,令许多投资者错愕,恐怕未能及时上车者不在少数。但如今英伟达顶部被打破,正如那句美好的古语:一鲸落,万物生。由AI军备竞赛而直接带来的对算力的需求,第一步将传递到半导体设备以及半导体材料等板块,而接下来将沿着算力耗能逻辑传导到锂电光伏储能,甚至煤炭火电石油天然气等传统能源板块也有望迎来行情。正是:一花独开不是春,百花齐放春满园。<strong>至此,其实打通了AI算力爆发对整个全球经济和产业链的传导路径。</strong>而基于这个图景,AI与半导体就不再是孤芳自赏,也不是曲高和寡,而是引领下一轮全球经济复苏、产业链升级,乃至全面牛市的急先锋了。</p><p><strong>当然,这一波复苏升级,是绕不开中国的庞大产业链中的关键节点的。</strong>由此,我们对2024年的股市和经济,可以多一份信心,少一些悲观了。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达“鲸落”,哪些板块将升起?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-11 22:04 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1084612.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>继上周五跌超5%之后,周一,英伟达开盘后续跌超2%。围绕英伟达的炒作,似乎有短暂有熄火的迹象。至少赚钱效应会消退,今天买明天就盈利的这种美好岁月,恐怕不会那么多了。但金钱永不眠,一只王道龙头炒作泡沫股的熄灭,市场热点会向其它板块扩散。唯美来讲,有一种“鲸落”之感。本文尝试剖析英伟达的炒作熄火之后,哪些板块或公司将受益。半导体制造业半导体是一个巨大的产业链,其上下游分工各有不同。英伟达和AMD这种...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1084612.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d357783e7734f84c1fb929bc391de25","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1084612.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2418364483","content_text":"继上周五跌超5%之后,周一,英伟达开盘后续跌超2%。围绕英伟达的炒作,似乎有短暂有熄火的迹象。至少赚钱效应会消退,今天买明天就盈利的这种美好岁月,恐怕不会那么多了。但金钱永不眠,一只王道龙头炒作泡沫股的熄灭,市场热点会向其它板块扩散。唯美来讲,有一种“鲸落”之感。本文尝试剖析英伟达的炒作熄火之后,哪些板块或公司将受益。半导体制造业半导体是一个巨大的产业链,其上下游分工各有不同。英伟达和AMD这种皇冠上的明珠,是属于无厂设计(Fabless)这个细分领域。那么他们设计出来的芯片由谁负责生产?答案是:芯片代工厂。其代表就是台积电。此外还有三星电子、格罗方德、联电、中芯国际等公司。人们看到了英伟达的H100订单排到了2025年,人们期待的一周后即将举办的2024年全球GTC大会上老黄会透露传说的大杀器B100的订货情况。但这些订单最终都会落到一众芯片代工商身上,这里为英伟达代工的主要是台积电。因此,英伟达的海量H100订单,过不了多久就会转化为台积电的业绩。市场目前给到英伟达的股价,已经包含了2024年全年H100以及可能的B100(或H200)的销售额;但市场对台积电的定价,还只是局限于已有的业绩。因此,相比于英伟达的高估,台积电则是低估。更为有利的是,台积电的业绩是高频数据。台积电会每个月公布一次当月的销售额。因此我们能够非常直观与身临其境地看到其业绩爆发的过程。如果说台积电卡了英伟达的脖子,那么谁又会卡台积电的脖子?答案是:阿斯麦。生产芯片最重要的环节是光刻,这已经是几乎全民都具备的常识了。而光刻的主要设备就是光刻机。目前全球能够生产高端光刻机的企业,有且只有一家,就是阿斯麦。阿斯麦目前的秘密武器杀手锏高孔径极紫外光光刻机(EUV)的售价达到3.8亿美元一台!根据阿斯麦的披露信息,目前这款EUV光刻机的订货量已经有十几台。目前台积电并没有订购这款产品,但预计这一波产能高潮过去之后,台积电将开启一波换装高峰。到那时阿斯麦将迎来业绩爆发。这一波有望在2025年下半年之后到来。阿斯麦在全球有两个小兄弟,就是我们比较熟悉的日本光学两兄弟,尼康和佳能。这两家生产的低端光刻机与阿斯麦有产品代际上的差距。锂电、光伏、储能近期比较有趣的一个现象是,老黄对于自家股票的剧烈震荡没有表态,而是开始转向关注能源问题。根据媒体披露,老黄在一次公开演讲中表示:“AI的尽头是光伏和储能!我们不能只想着算力,如果只考虑计算器,我们需要烧掉14个地球的能源。”无独有偶,另外两位科技大佬也发表了类似的观点。OpenAI的创始人山姆·奥特曼也提出了类似的看法。奥特曼表示,“未来AI的技术取决于能源,我们需要更多的光伏和储能。”而特斯拉CEO马斯克预计,两年内年将由“缺硅”变为“缺电”,而这可能阻碍AI的发展。甚至,近期关于晶圆厂对水的需求也进入分析师的讨论范畴。是的,你没听错,水。H2O。这些观点和言论似乎让资本市场找到了下一个炒作的方向,即能源。当然,传统能源是一方面,但新能源也将再度迎来资本的加持。特别是老黄、山姆奥特曼以及马斯克都提到的光伏,储能等板块,已经有资金开始布局,春江水暖鸭先知。例如港股板块去年跌得梨花带雨的信义光能,股民无奈徒呼“光伏已死”,谁知最近股价底部反弹,涨幅已经接近1倍。A股也反应热烈。锂电与储能龙头宁德时代,直接15cm大阳线拉起来,圆底反转意味正浓。亿纬锂能也是类似走势,13cm大阳线。湖南裕能涨幅则为9.74%。主板的恩捷则在午后直接拉涨停。此外,光伏板块也有所反应,阳光电源涨9.83%,福莱特7.82%。龙头隆基和通威相对冷静,涨幅分别为2.93%和2.1%,晶澳和天合光能也相对温和。考虑到光伏板块已经涨得比较多,因此可能需要消化一段时间再继续。自2022年下半年锂电光伏储能等板块炒作见顶之后,至今已经接近两年,这个过程中叠加新能车的内卷逐渐激烈,乃至倾覆。目前整个新能源板块需要新的故事和逻辑,这一波算力暴增对能源的需求,有望为新能源板块注入一剂强心针,值得期待。最后有必要提到的是,传统能源板块近期也普遍走强,例如港股的中海油,妥妥的大牛股。这一波“算力耗能”的逻辑能否推高油价,有待进一步观察。但仅就目前的油价而言,已经足够支撑中海油等传统能源股维持目前价位,甚至进一步创新高了。总结年初芯片板块迅雷不及掩耳的一波疯狂牛市,以及英伟达的闪电式冲顶,令许多投资者错愕,恐怕未能及时上车者不在少数。但如今英伟达顶部被打破,正如那句美好的古语:一鲸落,万物生。由AI军备竞赛而直接带来的对算力的需求,第一步将传递到半导体设备以及半导体材料等板块,而接下来将沿着算力耗能逻辑传导到锂电光伏储能,甚至煤炭火电石油天然气等传统能源板块也有望迎来行情。正是:一花独开不是春,百花齐放春满园。至此,其实打通了AI算力爆发对整个全球经济和产业链的传导路径。而基于这个图景,AI与半导体就不再是孤芳自赏,也不是曲高和寡,而是引领下一轮全球经济复苏、产业链升级,乃至全面牛市的急先锋了。当然,这一波复苏升级,是绕不开中国的庞大产业链中的关键节点的。由此,我们对2024年的股市和经济,可以多一份信心,少一些悲观了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":275416015122736,"gmtCreate":1708262906399,"gmtModify":1708262909965,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是喜还是忧?","listText":"是喜还是忧?","text":"是喜还是忧?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cc679134e8168047681f3f9614721f","width":"750","height":"984"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/275416015122736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":264502202966152,"gmtCreate":1705598078867,"gmtModify":1705643932223,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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","text":"拭目以待吧,大家做好准备迎接新挑战。[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283209931366720","repostId":"2418364483","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2418364483","pubTimestamp":1710165866,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2418364483?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-11 22:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达“鲸落”,哪些板块将升起?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2418364483","media":"智通财经网","summary":"围绕英伟达的炒作,有短暂有熄火的迹象。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>继上周五跌超5%之后,周一,英伟达开盘后续跌超2%。围绕英伟达的炒作,似乎有短暂有熄火的迹象。至少赚钱效应会消退,今天买明天就盈利的这种美好岁月,恐怕不会那么多了。<strong>但金钱永不眠,一只王道龙头炒作泡沫股的熄灭,市场热点会向其它板块扩散。</strong>唯美来讲,有一种“鲸落”之感。本文尝试剖析英伟达的炒作熄火之后,哪些板块或公司将受益。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900a77f83499fd72e02150ef05e28c44\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>半导体制造业</strong>半导体是一个巨大的产业链,其上下游分工各有不同。英伟达和AMD这种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5HT.SI\">皇冠</a>上的明珠,是属于无厂设计(Fabless)这个细分领域。<strong>那么他们设计出来的芯片由谁负责生产?答案是:芯片代工厂。</strong>其代表就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>。此外还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>、格罗方德、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">联电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a>等公司。人们看到了英伟达的H100订单排到了2025年,人们期待的一周后即将举办的2024年全球GTC大会上老黄会透露传说的大杀器B100的订货情况。但这些订单最终都会落到一众芯片代工商身上,这里为英伟达代工的主要是台积电。因此,英伟达的海量H100订单,过不了多久就会转化为台积电的业绩。市场目前给到英伟达的股价,已经包含了2024年全年H100以及可能的B100(或H200)的销售额;但市场对台积电的定价,还只是局限于已有的业绩。因此,相比于英伟达的高估,台积电则是低估。更为有利的是,台积电的业绩是高频数据。台积电会每个月公布一次当月的销售额。因此我们能够非常直观与身临其境地看到其业绩爆发的过程。</p><p><strong>如果说台积电卡了英伟达的脖子,那么谁又会卡台积电的脖子?答案是:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>。</strong>生产芯片最重要的环节是光刻,这已经是几乎<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>都具备的常识了。而光刻的主要设备就是光刻机。目前全球能够生产高端光刻机的企业,有且只有一家,就是阿斯麦。阿斯麦目前的秘密武器杀手锏高孔径极紫外光光刻机(EUV)的售价达到3.8亿美元一台!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938f46fd566d5cad0af3c3be8fd759eb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\"/></p><p>根据阿斯麦的披露信息,目前这款EUV光刻机的订货量已经有十几台。目前台积电并没有订购这款产品,但预计这一波产能高潮过去之后,台积电将开启一波换装高峰。到那时阿斯麦将迎来业绩爆发。这一波有望在2025年下半年之后到来。阿斯麦在全球有两个小兄弟,就是我们比较熟悉的日本光学两兄弟,尼康和佳能。这两家生产的低端光刻机与阿斯麦有产品代际上的差距。</p><p><strong>锂电、光伏、储能</strong>近期比较有趣的一个现象是,老黄对于自家股票的剧烈震荡没有表态,而是开始转向关注能源问题。根据媒体披露,老黄在一次公开演讲中表示:“AI的尽头是光伏和储能!我们不能只想着算力,如果只考虑计算器,我们需要烧掉14个地球的能源。”无独有偶,另外两位科技大佬也发表了类似的观点。OpenAI的创始人山姆·奥特曼也提出了类似的看法。奥特曼表示,“未来AI的技术取决于能源,我们需要更多的光伏和储能。”而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO马斯克预计,两年内年将由“缺硅”变为“缺电”,而这可能阻碍AI的发展。甚至,近期关于晶圆厂对水的需求也进入分析师的讨论范畴。</p><p>是的,你没听错,水。H2O。这些观点和言论似乎让资本市场找到了下一个炒作的方向,即能源。当然,传统能源是一方面,但新能源也将再度迎来资本的加持。特别是老黄、山姆奥特曼以及马斯克都提到的光伏,储能等板块,已经有资金开始布局,春江水暖鸭先知。例如港股板块去年跌得梨花带雨的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00968\">信义光能</a>,股民无奈徒呼“光伏已死”,谁知最近股价底部反弹,涨幅已经接近1倍。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8914f1bf4c31d2c9fbf7d182fde0239\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>A股也反应热烈。锂电与储能龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>,直接15cm大阳线拉起来,圆底反转意味正浓。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">亿纬锂能</a>也是类似走势,13cm大阳线。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301358\">湖南裕能</a>涨幅则为9.74%。主板的恩捷则在午后直接拉涨停。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afbbdfd7695ba9734d5e13c7cd5eb4f1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>此外,光伏板块也有所反应,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>涨9.83%,福莱特7.82%。龙头隆基和通威相对冷静,涨幅分别为2.93%和2.1%,晶澳和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688599\">天合光能</a>也相对温和。考虑到光伏板块已经涨得比较多,因此可能需要消化一段时间再继续。</p><p>自2022年下半年锂电光伏储能等板块炒作见顶之后,至今已经接近两年,这个过程中叠加新能车的内卷逐渐激烈,乃至倾覆。<strong>目前整个新能源板块需要新的故事和逻辑,这一波算力暴增对能源的需求,有望为新能源板块注入一剂强心针,值得期待。</strong>最后有必要提到的是,传统能源板块近期也普遍走强,例如港股的中海油,妥妥的大牛股。这一波“算力耗能”的逻辑能否推高油价,有待进一步观察。但仅就目前的油价而言,已经足够支撑中海油等传统能源股维持目前价位,甚至进一步创新高了。</p><p><strong>总结</strong>年初芯片板块迅雷不及掩耳的一波疯狂牛市,以及英伟达的闪电式冲顶,令许多投资者错愕,恐怕未能及时上车者不在少数。但如今英伟达顶部被打破,正如那句美好的古语:一鲸落,万物生。由AI军备竞赛而直接带来的对算力的需求,第一步将传递到半导体设备以及半导体材料等板块,而接下来将沿着算力耗能逻辑传导到锂电光伏储能,甚至煤炭火电石油天然气等传统能源板块也有望迎来行情。正是:一花独开不是春,百花齐放春满园。<strong>至此,其实打通了AI算力爆发对整个全球经济和产业链的传导路径。</strong>而基于这个图景,AI与半导体就不再是孤芳自赏,也不是曲高和寡,而是引领下一轮全球经济复苏、产业链升级,乃至全面牛市的急先锋了。</p><p><strong>当然,这一波复苏升级,是绕不开中国的庞大产业链中的关键节点的。</strong>由此,我们对2024年的股市和经济,可以多一份信心,少一些悲观了。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达“鲸落”,哪些板块将升起?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-11 22:04 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1084612.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>继上周五跌超5%之后,周一,英伟达开盘后续跌超2%。围绕英伟达的炒作,似乎有短暂有熄火的迹象。至少赚钱效应会消退,今天买明天就盈利的这种美好岁月,恐怕不会那么多了。但金钱永不眠,一只王道龙头炒作泡沫股的熄灭,市场热点会向其它板块扩散。唯美来讲,有一种“鲸落”之感。本文尝试剖析英伟达的炒作熄火之后,哪些板块或公司将受益。半导体制造业半导体是一个巨大的产业链,其上下游分工各有不同。英伟达和AMD这种...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1084612.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d357783e7734f84c1fb929bc391de25","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1084612.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2418364483","content_text":"继上周五跌超5%之后,周一,英伟达开盘后续跌超2%。围绕英伟达的炒作,似乎有短暂有熄火的迹象。至少赚钱效应会消退,今天买明天就盈利的这种美好岁月,恐怕不会那么多了。但金钱永不眠,一只王道龙头炒作泡沫股的熄灭,市场热点会向其它板块扩散。唯美来讲,有一种“鲸落”之感。本文尝试剖析英伟达的炒作熄火之后,哪些板块或公司将受益。半导体制造业半导体是一个巨大的产业链,其上下游分工各有不同。英伟达和AMD这种皇冠上的明珠,是属于无厂设计(Fabless)这个细分领域。那么他们设计出来的芯片由谁负责生产?答案是:芯片代工厂。其代表就是台积电。此外还有三星电子、格罗方德、联电、中芯国际等公司。人们看到了英伟达的H100订单排到了2025年,人们期待的一周后即将举办的2024年全球GTC大会上老黄会透露传说的大杀器B100的订货情况。但这些订单最终都会落到一众芯片代工商身上,这里为英伟达代工的主要是台积电。因此,英伟达的海量H100订单,过不了多久就会转化为台积电的业绩。市场目前给到英伟达的股价,已经包含了2024年全年H100以及可能的B100(或H200)的销售额;但市场对台积电的定价,还只是局限于已有的业绩。因此,相比于英伟达的高估,台积电则是低估。更为有利的是,台积电的业绩是高频数据。台积电会每个月公布一次当月的销售额。因此我们能够非常直观与身临其境地看到其业绩爆发的过程。如果说台积电卡了英伟达的脖子,那么谁又会卡台积电的脖子?答案是:阿斯麦。生产芯片最重要的环节是光刻,这已经是几乎全民都具备的常识了。而光刻的主要设备就是光刻机。目前全球能够生产高端光刻机的企业,有且只有一家,就是阿斯麦。阿斯麦目前的秘密武器杀手锏高孔径极紫外光光刻机(EUV)的售价达到3.8亿美元一台!根据阿斯麦的披露信息,目前这款EUV光刻机的订货量已经有十几台。目前台积电并没有订购这款产品,但预计这一波产能高潮过去之后,台积电将开启一波换装高峰。到那时阿斯麦将迎来业绩爆发。这一波有望在2025年下半年之后到来。阿斯麦在全球有两个小兄弟,就是我们比较熟悉的日本光学两兄弟,尼康和佳能。这两家生产的低端光刻机与阿斯麦有产品代际上的差距。锂电、光伏、储能近期比较有趣的一个现象是,老黄对于自家股票的剧烈震荡没有表态,而是开始转向关注能源问题。根据媒体披露,老黄在一次公开演讲中表示:“AI的尽头是光伏和储能!我们不能只想着算力,如果只考虑计算器,我们需要烧掉14个地球的能源。”无独有偶,另外两位科技大佬也发表了类似的观点。OpenAI的创始人山姆·奥特曼也提出了类似的看法。奥特曼表示,“未来AI的技术取决于能源,我们需要更多的光伏和储能。”而特斯拉CEO马斯克预计,两年内年将由“缺硅”变为“缺电”,而这可能阻碍AI的发展。甚至,近期关于晶圆厂对水的需求也进入分析师的讨论范畴。是的,你没听错,水。H2O。这些观点和言论似乎让资本市场找到了下一个炒作的方向,即能源。当然,传统能源是一方面,但新能源也将再度迎来资本的加持。特别是老黄、山姆奥特曼以及马斯克都提到的光伏,储能等板块,已经有资金开始布局,春江水暖鸭先知。例如港股板块去年跌得梨花带雨的信义光能,股民无奈徒呼“光伏已死”,谁知最近股价底部反弹,涨幅已经接近1倍。A股也反应热烈。锂电与储能龙头宁德时代,直接15cm大阳线拉起来,圆底反转意味正浓。亿纬锂能也是类似走势,13cm大阳线。湖南裕能涨幅则为9.74%。主板的恩捷则在午后直接拉涨停。此外,光伏板块也有所反应,阳光电源涨9.83%,福莱特7.82%。龙头隆基和通威相对冷静,涨幅分别为2.93%和2.1%,晶澳和天合光能也相对温和。考虑到光伏板块已经涨得比较多,因此可能需要消化一段时间再继续。自2022年下半年锂电光伏储能等板块炒作见顶之后,至今已经接近两年,这个过程中叠加新能车的内卷逐渐激烈,乃至倾覆。目前整个新能源板块需要新的故事和逻辑,这一波算力暴增对能源的需求,有望为新能源板块注入一剂强心针,值得期待。最后有必要提到的是,传统能源板块近期也普遍走强,例如港股的中海油,妥妥的大牛股。这一波“算力耗能”的逻辑能否推高油价,有待进一步观察。但仅就目前的油价而言,已经足够支撑中海油等传统能源股维持目前价位,甚至进一步创新高了。总结年初芯片板块迅雷不及掩耳的一波疯狂牛市,以及英伟达的闪电式冲顶,令许多投资者错愕,恐怕未能及时上车者不在少数。但如今英伟达顶部被打破,正如那句美好的古语:一鲸落,万物生。由AI军备竞赛而直接带来的对算力的需求,第一步将传递到半导体设备以及半导体材料等板块,而接下来将沿着算力耗能逻辑传导到锂电光伏储能,甚至煤炭火电石油天然气等传统能源板块也有望迎来行情。正是:一花独开不是春,百花齐放春满园。至此,其实打通了AI算力爆发对整个全球经济和产业链的传导路径。而基于这个图景,AI与半导体就不再是孤芳自赏,也不是曲高和寡,而是引领下一轮全球经济复苏、产业链升级,乃至全面牛市的急先锋了。当然,这一波复苏升级,是绕不开中国的庞大产业链中的关键节点的。由此,我们对2024年的股市和经济,可以多一份信心,少一些悲观了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":275416015122736,"gmtCreate":1708262906399,"gmtModify":1708262909965,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是喜还是忧?","listText":"是喜还是忧?","text":"是喜还是忧?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35cc679134e8168047681f3f9614721f","width":"750","height":"984"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/275416015122736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":259653775351960,"gmtCreate":1704402168690,"gmtModify":1704405784616,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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15:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股奈雪的茶盘尾跳水跌超6%,现报14.48港元。","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152656921","media":"新浪财经","summary":"港股奈雪的茶盘尾跳水跌超6%,现报14.48港元。","content":"<html><body><p>港股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">奈雪的茶</a>盘尾跳水跌超6%,现报14.48港元。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股奈雪的茶盘尾跳水跌超6%,现报14.48港元。</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/969153dc5674369c3b376e33d2fc3976","relate_stocks":{"02150":"奈雪的茶"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2021-07-19/doc-ikqciyzk6363998.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2152656921","content_text":"港股奈雪的茶盘尾跳水跌超6%,现报14.48港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":122147389,"gmtCreate":1624607770741,"gmtModify":1624607770741,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"又一签,把握好时机","listText":"又一签,把握好时机","text":"又一签,把握好时机","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc263cbdf5149b4ed477d2b83fd10e8","width":"825","height":"1242"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/122147389","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":128559504,"gmtCreate":1624524834208,"gmtModify":1624524834208,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望吃一口大肉,","listText":"希望吃一口大肉,","text":"希望吃一口大肉,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d57340551dab955afa9bea7e820619a","width":"825","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128559504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":167015508,"gmtCreate":1624239225804,"gmtModify":1624239225804,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大家都来吧,喝下这杯夏季茶。","listText":"大家都来吧,喝下这杯夏季茶。","text":"大家都来吧,喝下这杯夏季茶。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7478526c7aa6bb0e69cf69cca4ad1262","width":"825","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167015508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162023654,"gmtCreate":1624028254478,"gmtModify":1624028254478,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"才中5股,小白菜上路,","listText":"才中5股,小白菜上路,","text":"才中5股,小白菜上路,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c555bc0e13ba552b7cf2e650aaa7c715","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162023654","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":169895627,"gmtCreate":1623826072569,"gmtModify":1623826072569,"author":{"id":"3584702651906479","authorId":"3584702651906479","name":"TheresaHao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9ac30772472737887eb0f30207c9f22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大家购了吗?","listText":"大家购了吗?","text":"大家购了吗?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85d2e3e3001c849202987e594f65b154","width":"825","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169895627","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}