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Joyce124
09-02
$植华集团(01842)$
哎⋯⋯什么时候才回本?
Joyce124
06-25
$开拓药业-B(09939)$
股票就是将你的钱弄到我的口袋!
Joyce124
06-05
$开拓药业-B(09939)$
太恶心了
Joyce124
06-03
$开拓药业-B(09939)$
好贱的股票!
Joyce124
03-11
$开拓药业-B(09939)$
09939到底做错了什么?咋这么冤的?
Joyce124
2023-08-04
$植华集团(01842)$
上次一块八毛回本打水漂了[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]
Joyce124
2023-05-18
$植华集团(01842)$
股票就该这样玩!拉高在砸锅[666] [666] [666] [666] [666]
Joyce124
2023-05-18
$植华集团(01842)$
涨跌都随便!港交所也不会管,收手续费而已!
Joyce124
2023-05-18
$植华集团(01842)$
一朝回到解放前[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
Joyce124
2023-05-12
$植华集团(01842)$
还差八毛三就回本了!加油加油再加油
Joyce124
2023-05-01
$植华集团(01842)$
涨回两块钱有没有意见?
Joyce124
2023-04-03
$植华集团(01842)$
怎么回事?什么情况?
Joyce124
2022-11-23
22块钱你要多少?你先把钱给我!
中信证券:维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级 目标价22港元
Joyce124
2022-07-21
T思L不骗穷人!
别被特斯拉财报骗了,新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺
Joyce124
2022-05-12
$耀高控股(01796)$
[惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓] [惊吓]
Joyce124
2022-05-10
$汇森家居(02127)$
涨了个漃漠!呵呵!开心了一天!悲哀了七天!财发狠心人!
Joyce124
2022-05-04
$汇森家居(02127)$
这是发现昨天涨错了么?今天悬崖勒马?还好没钱融资!不然今天又又又又又又又被强平!下次拉涨的时候小心点,不要在搞错了!浪费心情!
Joyce124
2022-04-29
$汇森家居(02127)$
老千股
Joyce124
2022-04-27
$汇森家居(02127)$
又恶意操控股价了!
Joyce124
2022-04-14
$汇森家居(02127)$
一定是有很多人融资了!他要搞爆所有融资的人!
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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怎么回事?什么情况?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653977613","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667742943,"gmtCreate":1669184411182,"gmtModify":1669184413690,"author":{"id":"3584064374196548","authorId":"3584064374196548","name":"Joyce124","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584064374196548","authorIdStr":"3584064374196548"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"22块钱你要多少?你先把钱给我!","listText":"22块钱你要多少?你先把钱给我!","text":"22块钱你要多少?你先把钱给我!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667742943","repostId":"2285942008","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2285942008","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669183811,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2285942008?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-23 14:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中信证券:维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级 目标价22港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285942008","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,中信证券发布研究报告称,维持京东物流“买入”评级,长期看预计盈利将明显提升,2024年核心净利率有望达1.5%,目标价22港元。同时预计公司全年能够实现经调净利盈亏平衡,德邦将进一步贡献正利润。此外,通过德邦获得覆盖全国的快运网络,期待双方在客户和网络方面协同效应的不断释放,该行预计德邦全年有望贡献正利润。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>发布研究报告称,维持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02618\">京东物流</a>(02618)“买入”评级,长期看预计盈利将明显提升,2024年核心净利率有望达1.5%,目标价22港元。公司2022Q3实现non-ifrs净利润4.5亿元,同比扭亏。同期外部收入占比增长至69.5%,同时布局直播电商物流,该行预计此板块收入占比或持续提升。另2022Q3毛利率同比提升2.5pcts至7.4%,预计随着规模效应释放、服务能力升级以及成本管理持续,盈利水平有望进一步提升。同时预计公司(不含德邦)全年能够实现经调净利盈亏平衡,德邦将进一步贡献正利润。</p><p>报告中称,截至2022年9月底,公司(含德邦)运营1500+仓库,仓储网络管理面积超过3000万平方米(含云仓),覆盖航空货运航线1000+条,2022年8月底获得民航局颁布的CCAR-121部《航空承运人运行合格证》,标志<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>物流航空正式投运。目前南通往返北京的自有全货机航线已正式运营。京东航空有望从成本、效率等方面为供应链服务提供支撑,提高资源壁垒和业务竞争力。此外,通过德邦获得覆盖全国的快运网络,期待双方在客户和网络方面协同效应的不断释放,该行预计德邦全年有望贡献正利润。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中信证券:维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级 目标价22港元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券:维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级 目标价22港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 14:10 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/835901.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,中信证券发布研究报告称,维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级,长期看预计盈利将明显提升,2024年核心净利率有望达1.5%,目标价22港元。公司2022Q3实现non-ifrs净利润4.5亿元,同比扭亏。同期外部收入占比增长至69.5%,同时布局直播电商物流,该行预计此板块收入占比或持续提升。另2022Q3毛利率同比提升2.5pcts至7.4%,预计随着规模效应释放、服务能力...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/835901.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02618":"京东物流","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/835901.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285942008","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,中信证券发布研究报告称,维持京东物流(02618)“买入”评级,长期看预计盈利将明显提升,2024年核心净利率有望达1.5%,目标价22港元。公司2022Q3实现non-ifrs净利润4.5亿元,同比扭亏。同期外部收入占比增长至69.5%,同时布局直播电商物流,该行预计此板块收入占比或持续提升。另2022Q3毛利率同比提升2.5pcts至7.4%,预计随着规模效应释放、服务能力升级以及成本管理持续,盈利水平有望进一步提升。同时预计公司(不含德邦)全年能够实现经调净利盈亏平衡,德邦将进一步贡献正利润。报告中称,截至2022年9月底,公司(含德邦)运营1500+仓库,仓储网络管理面积超过3000万平方米(含云仓),覆盖航空货运航线1000+条,2022年8月底获得民航局颁布的CCAR-121部《航空承运人运行合格证》,标志京东物流航空正式投运。目前南通往返北京的自有全货机航线已正式运营。京东航空有望从成本、效率等方面为供应链服务提供支撑,提高资源壁垒和业务竞争力。此外,通过德邦获得覆盖全国的快运网络,期待双方在客户和网络方面协同效应的不断释放,该行预计德邦全年有望贡献正利润。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686579468,"gmtCreate":1658413286655,"gmtModify":1704870455011,"author":{"id":"3584064374196548","authorId":"3584064374196548","name":"Joyce124","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584064374196548","authorIdStr":"3584064374196548"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"T思L不骗穷人!","listText":"T思L不骗穷人!","text":"T思L不骗穷人!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686579468","repostId":"1107960522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107960522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658409897,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107960522?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-21 21:24","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"别被特斯拉财报骗了,新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107960522","media":"格隆汇","summary":"特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们,还会像之前那么顺利吗?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>翘首以盼的特斯拉财报,终于来到眼前。</p><p>对于这份财报,有些已经料到,比如交付量下滑,营收下滑,毛利率下滑,结束了好多个季度的单边上涨态势,特别是Q2的交付量早于财报前就已经公布,研究员大致算一下,便可窥见全貌;有些没有料到,净利润居然还能超出预期,同比翻了近一倍。</p><p>客观地说,这是一份平稳的财报,好坏对冲后,市场大致也能够接受。</p><p>但是,在目前仍然错综复杂的宏观经济形势下,特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们,还会像之前那么顺利吗?</p><p><b>01喜忧参半</b></p><p>首先说一下这个财报的几个关键点。</p><p>如市场最为关注的交付量下滑,这对于长时间习惯了增长模式的特斯拉投资者,是不太容易接受的事实。不过,理性地看,交付量下滑主要是上海疫情的影响,这个问题几乎所有在中国做生产的汽车厂商都一样,而且特斯拉股价下跌了如此之多,一定程度上也反映了这个结果。</p><p>所以,Q2交付量这个问题其实不用过于敏感,疫情解封后的6月,特斯拉已经出现了强势反弹。真正存在不确定性的,是下半年或者更长的时间。按照特斯拉自己的说法,手头的订单还很多,基本不用担心生意,而更应该担忧自己能不能造出车来及时交付,高管在电话会议上也重申了50%的年增长率,尽管明白当中有困难。另外,马斯克的经营能力,以及特斯拉的执行力也是值得称道的,典型的证据就是裁员果断、对供应链以及成本的控制,使得特斯拉在Q2如此困难的宏观环境下,依然能够取得超预期的利润。</p><p><b>这可以算是喜的一面。</b></p><p>但是,从欧美高通胀甚至可能出现经济危机的角度出发,特斯拉的订单在未来1-2年内还能够维持这么高,就得打上一个问号了,如果真的发生经济危机,订单量必定会有所收缩,营收端的压力就会浮现,这必然会给公司的增长前景蒙上阴影。</p><p><b>这是忧的一面。</b></p><p>从产能端,特斯拉4家超级工厂的总产能在200万左右,平均每个50万辆,现在又传出上海工厂扩建到75万辆,满打满算也就是215万辆,按照去年93万的出厂量,未来要实现每年50%的增长,至少在产能端是具备能力的,当然还要看柏林和奥斯汀工厂的爬坡情况。</p><p>而另外两个较为受关注的盈利点——<b>FSD和新车型</b>,今年估计都没有什么值得期待的地方。</p><p>关于FSD,马斯克食言已经很多次,市场基本也麻木了,在个人采访中,马斯克也多次承认,很多关注FSD的“曙光”最后都被证明是假的,要真正解决FSD所面临的问题,其实就是解决真实世界的人工智能问题。说得更直白一点,是要真正实现AI代替人脑,这个事,至少现在看来还没有谁敢拍胸口,说自己能够做到的。其实,FSD这种事是非常困难的,试想一下,在一个高速行驶的车里自动驾驶,出事就是人命观天,马虎不得。</p><p>所以,估值体系里如果过于乐观将FSD纳入,那就很可能是估值泡沫。</p><p>至于新车型,今年铁定没戏,电话会议上说的,9月份能够看到机器人,但新车型,例如皮卡,得明年才能看到。实际上,即使推出新车型,我也很怀疑特斯拉的产能能否应付得了,尤其是Model 3和Model Y都这么多未完成的订单,除非新建工厂,否则基本不可能应付得来,即使真的量产,也只是小规模。</p><p>特斯拉高管对于新建工厂计划的回应不多,目前的工作重点还在于两家新工厂的产能爬坡,导致了市场对于特斯拉未来的增长预期有所弱化,这也是财报公布后股价短暂拉升又迅速回落的原因,很明显,市场正在重新给特斯拉估值。</p><p><b>从基本面上看,特斯拉没有太大问题,现在的压制因素主要来自宏观经济,宏观层面没有触底复苏,特斯拉的股价就缺乏上涨动力,想要回到年初的高峰位置,更加是困难重重。</b></p><p>今年下半年,大概率还是在过去一个多月的区间里磨来磨去,直到全球经济有转机。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/988425ec83176d94f2f8428576e8e8d0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>02国内新势力几何?</b></p><p>说到特斯拉,就不得不提国内的新能源车企。</p><p><b>现在大家都还沉浸在6月份强劲的销量数据上,似乎一切都没什么好担心的,但是,昨天一个新势力的调研报告出炉,当中提到下半年会降价促销,以完成全年的销售任务。</b></p><p>这个看似不大不小的动作,其实蕴含的信息量非常巨大。电动车集体提价还是几个月的事,这么快就反转,可以感受得到车企所面临的销售压力,终极问题就在于,到底新能源汽车是不是如我们所见的乐观?</p><p>当然,这家新势力的降价促销实属无奈之举,因为今年时间过半,但销售任务只完成了1/3,同时该车企还要面对三大新势力亏损最大这个事实,如果要完成全年任务,等于说下半年的销量要是上半年的2倍,这个挑战其实是很大的,虽然说下半年的车市才是销售旺季,但鉴于现在宏观环境和居民消费力,汽车这种大宗消费品能否继续维持高增,就存在很多不确定性。同时,很多车企都不断推出新车去抢占新能源市场,虽然新势力们还头顶光环,但冷暖只有它们自己才知道。</p><p>回看5、6月份的电动车为何销售强劲回升,其实原因只有一个,<b>政策刺激</b>。如果政策继续加码,那下半年新能源汽车的销售不会有太大问题,不过,从昨天总理的表态来看,下半年的经济刺激政策即使有,也不会过猛。换句话说,国家对于电动车的刺激,能做到现在这个份上,基本也已经尽力了的,再希望国家拿钱出来就不现实了。</p><p>当然,看多者还有一个信仰,那就是<b>抢食燃油车的蛋糕</b>。</p><p>根据中国汽车工业协会披露的数据,今年上半年燃油车的总体销量(乘用车和商用车)按年下跌19.1%。更重要的是,燃油车作为旧时代的代表,几乎没有还手之力,只能眼睁睁看着地盘被蚕食。如果按照这个剧本演下去,似乎新能源汽车也没有值得担心的,但正如前文所言,燃油车企的变量在于,它们也在迫不及待地挤进新能源汽车赛道,这必然会加剧市场竞争,赛道本身有增长没错,但每家的份额能不能增长就不一定了。</p><p>对于车企而言,前端有宏观经济、居民消费的压力,又有锂矿造成的成本压力,对于下半年,不宜太乐观。现在,整个港A股新能源汽车板块都处于回调之中,新势力们的股价在6月末触顶之后,已经跌了大半个月,反映的正是这样一种预期。</p><p>今年新能源汽车的整体销量,市场上的预期大概是550万辆,现在的股价,基本也反映了这种预期,除非政策上再有动作支持,否则,新势力们的上涨动力会很弱,顶多就是来回波动一下。</p><p><b>03结语</b></p><p>眼下的市场,确实缺乏新的主线。</p><p><b>在宏观经济未有周期性向上之时,走势都会反复震荡,对于投资者而言,这会是相当磨人的一个时期,虽然中间会有反弹,但到一定程度,常常戛然而止,踏空、被套就会经常发生。</b></p><p>作为极少数拥有广阔增长空间的行业,新能源汽车一直受到资金追捧,但是资金过度涌入,又往往容易推高估值,造成阶段性泡沫,上涨阶段获利容易,但回调阶段又很容易套人。如果是长线资金,在低位进入,可以无视股价波动,但是大部分投资者,尤其是散户,是不可能做到的。</p><p>新能源汽车板块何时再进入上涨阶段,今年或者都不容易看到了。因为要再来一次6月份的上涨,要么像4月份那样,崩一次,要么经济重新进入上涨周期,再有,就是成本端出现大幅下滑,例如锂矿价格大幅回落,而这几个因素,出现的可能性都不大。</p><p>新能源汽车的财报,仍然耀眼,但别被财报骗了,下半年的新能源汽车的股价,还是谨慎为好。</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n别被特斯拉财报骗了,新能源车的下半年未必一帆风顺\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 21:24 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/540787><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>翘首以盼的特斯拉财报,终于来到眼前。对于这份财报,有些已经料到,比如交付量下滑,营收下滑,毛利率下滑,结束了好多个季度的单边上涨态势,特别是Q2的交付量早于财报前就已经公布,研究员大致算一下,便可窥见全貌;有些没有料到,净利润居然还能超出预期,同比翻了近一倍。客观地说,这是一份平稳的财报,好坏对冲后,市场大致也能够接受。但是,在目前仍然错综复杂的宏观经济形势下,特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们,还会像之前...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/540787\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c7f56416ea450ba452ed25e324d2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/540787","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1107960522","content_text":"翘首以盼的特斯拉财报,终于来到眼前。对于这份财报,有些已经料到,比如交付量下滑,营收下滑,毛利率下滑,结束了好多个季度的单边上涨态势,特别是Q2的交付量早于财报前就已经公布,研究员大致算一下,便可窥见全貌;有些没有料到,净利润居然还能超出预期,同比翻了近一倍。客观地说,这是一份平稳的财报,好坏对冲后,市场大致也能够接受。但是,在目前仍然错综复杂的宏观经济形势下,特斯拉乃至中国的新势力们,还会像之前那么顺利吗?01喜忧参半首先说一下这个财报的几个关键点。如市场最为关注的交付量下滑,这对于长时间习惯了增长模式的特斯拉投资者,是不太容易接受的事实。不过,理性地看,交付量下滑主要是上海疫情的影响,这个问题几乎所有在中国做生产的汽车厂商都一样,而且特斯拉股价下跌了如此之多,一定程度上也反映了这个结果。所以,Q2交付量这个问题其实不用过于敏感,疫情解封后的6月,特斯拉已经出现了强势反弹。真正存在不确定性的,是下半年或者更长的时间。按照特斯拉自己的说法,手头的订单还很多,基本不用担心生意,而更应该担忧自己能不能造出车来及时交付,高管在电话会议上也重申了50%的年增长率,尽管明白当中有困难。另外,马斯克的经营能力,以及特斯拉的执行力也是值得称道的,典型的证据就是裁员果断、对供应链以及成本的控制,使得特斯拉在Q2如此困难的宏观环境下,依然能够取得超预期的利润。这可以算是喜的一面。但是,从欧美高通胀甚至可能出现经济危机的角度出发,特斯拉的订单在未来1-2年内还能够维持这么高,就得打上一个问号了,如果真的发生经济危机,订单量必定会有所收缩,营收端的压力就会浮现,这必然会给公司的增长前景蒙上阴影。这是忧的一面。从产能端,特斯拉4家超级工厂的总产能在200万左右,平均每个50万辆,现在又传出上海工厂扩建到75万辆,满打满算也就是215万辆,按照去年93万的出厂量,未来要实现每年50%的增长,至少在产能端是具备能力的,当然还要看柏林和奥斯汀工厂的爬坡情况。而另外两个较为受关注的盈利点——FSD和新车型,今年估计都没有什么值得期待的地方。关于FSD,马斯克食言已经很多次,市场基本也麻木了,在个人采访中,马斯克也多次承认,很多关注FSD的“曙光”最后都被证明是假的,要真正解决FSD所面临的问题,其实就是解决真实世界的人工智能问题。说得更直白一点,是要真正实现AI代替人脑,这个事,至少现在看来还没有谁敢拍胸口,说自己能够做到的。其实,FSD这种事是非常困难的,试想一下,在一个高速行驶的车里自动驾驶,出事就是人命观天,马虎不得。所以,估值体系里如果过于乐观将FSD纳入,那就很可能是估值泡沫。至于新车型,今年铁定没戏,电话会议上说的,9月份能够看到机器人,但新车型,例如皮卡,得明年才能看到。实际上,即使推出新车型,我也很怀疑特斯拉的产能能否应付得了,尤其是Model 3和Model Y都这么多未完成的订单,除非新建工厂,否则基本不可能应付得来,即使真的量产,也只是小规模。特斯拉高管对于新建工厂计划的回应不多,目前的工作重点还在于两家新工厂的产能爬坡,导致了市场对于特斯拉未来的增长预期有所弱化,这也是财报公布后股价短暂拉升又迅速回落的原因,很明显,市场正在重新给特斯拉估值。从基本面上看,特斯拉没有太大问题,现在的压制因素主要来自宏观经济,宏观层面没有触底复苏,特斯拉的股价就缺乏上涨动力,想要回到年初的高峰位置,更加是困难重重。今年下半年,大概率还是在过去一个多月的区间里磨来磨去,直到全球经济有转机。02国内新势力几何?说到特斯拉,就不得不提国内的新能源车企。现在大家都还沉浸在6月份强劲的销量数据上,似乎一切都没什么好担心的,但是,昨天一个新势力的调研报告出炉,当中提到下半年会降价促销,以完成全年的销售任务。这个看似不大不小的动作,其实蕴含的信息量非常巨大。电动车集体提价还是几个月的事,这么快就反转,可以感受得到车企所面临的销售压力,终极问题就在于,到底新能源汽车是不是如我们所见的乐观?当然,这家新势力的降价促销实属无奈之举,因为今年时间过半,但销售任务只完成了1/3,同时该车企还要面对三大新势力亏损最大这个事实,如果要完成全年任务,等于说下半年的销量要是上半年的2倍,这个挑战其实是很大的,虽然说下半年的车市才是销售旺季,但鉴于现在宏观环境和居民消费力,汽车这种大宗消费品能否继续维持高增,就存在很多不确定性。同时,很多车企都不断推出新车去抢占新能源市场,虽然新势力们还头顶光环,但冷暖只有它们自己才知道。回看5、6月份的电动车为何销售强劲回升,其实原因只有一个,政策刺激。如果政策继续加码,那下半年新能源汽车的销售不会有太大问题,不过,从昨天总理的表态来看,下半年的经济刺激政策即使有,也不会过猛。换句话说,国家对于电动车的刺激,能做到现在这个份上,基本也已经尽力了的,再希望国家拿钱出来就不现实了。当然,看多者还有一个信仰,那就是抢食燃油车的蛋糕。根据中国汽车工业协会披露的数据,今年上半年燃油车的总体销量(乘用车和商用车)按年下跌19.1%。更重要的是,燃油车作为旧时代的代表,几乎没有还手之力,只能眼睁睁看着地盘被蚕食。如果按照这个剧本演下去,似乎新能源汽车也没有值得担心的,但正如前文所言,燃油车企的变量在于,它们也在迫不及待地挤进新能源汽车赛道,这必然会加剧市场竞争,赛道本身有增长没错,但每家的份额能不能增长就不一定了。对于车企而言,前端有宏观经济、居民消费的压力,又有锂矿造成的成本压力,对于下半年,不宜太乐观。现在,整个港A股新能源汽车板块都处于回调之中,新势力们的股价在6月末触顶之后,已经跌了大半个月,反映的正是这样一种预期。今年新能源汽车的整体销量,市场上的预期大概是550万辆,现在的股价,基本也反映了这种预期,除非政策上再有动作支持,否则,新势力们的上涨动力会很弱,顶多就是来回波动一下。03结语眼下的市场,确实缺乏新的主线。在宏观经济未有周期性向上之时,走势都会反复震荡,对于投资者而言,这会是相当磨人的一个时期,虽然中间会有反弹,但到一定程度,常常戛然而止,踏空、被套就会经常发生。作为极少数拥有广阔增长空间的行业,新能源汽车一直受到资金追捧,但是资金过度涌入,又往往容易推高估值,造成阶段性泡沫,上涨阶段获利容易,但回调阶段又很容易套人。如果是长线资金,在低位进入,可以无视股价波动,但是大部分投资者,尤其是散户,是不可能做到的。新能源汽车板块何时再进入上涨阶段,今年或者都不容易看到了。因为要再来一次6月份的上涨,要么像4月份那样,崩一次,要么经济重新进入上涨周期,再有,就是成本端出现大幅下滑,例如锂矿价格大幅回落,而这几个因素,出现的可能性都不大。新能源汽车的财报,仍然耀眼,但别被财报骗了,下半年的新能源汽车的股价,还是谨慎为好。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612649149,"gmtCreate":1652335792181,"gmtModify":1652335792181,"author":{"id":"3584064374196548","authorId":"3584064374196548","name":"Joyce124","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584064374196548","authorIdStr":"3584064374196548"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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