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DaiJing
2022-06-30
$台积电(TSM)$
吉白股,死半年多了
DaiJing
2022-06-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
孩童般性格的CEO的股票不值得跟随
DaiJing
2022-05-26
现在是最好的时机离开美股,融资做大后就可离开回A股上市了
财报前瞻 | 阿里“稳了”?资金的“态度”永远是最真实的!
DaiJing
2022-05-25
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
爽啊,大起大落的股票赌起来刺激
DaiJing
2022-05-12
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
基本面没变,坚定持有
DaiJing
2022-05-12
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
基本面是好的,要坚持持有
DaiJing
2022-05-05
跟着芒格操作是正确的
热门中概股持续走低,拼多多跌超8%
DaiJing
2022-05-05
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
每天都这样,先抑后仰
DaiJing
2022-04-11
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
不再增持,不再抛售,不再期待
DaiJing
2022-04-11
$台积电(TSM)$
对你不再期待
DaiJing
2022-02-24
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
在努力一把,发行价购买
DaiJing
2022-02-07
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
连续几天都是盘前大跌盘中回升,看不懂
DaiJing
2022-02-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今天950岁
DaiJing
2022-01-28
$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$
何时挺直你的脊梁
DaiJing
2022-01-27
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
没有下跌的理由,后市必涨
DaiJing
2022-01-24
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
showhand tonight
DaiJing
2022-01-21
$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$
资产转换的最好工具,跌到尽头去
DaiJing
2022-01-21
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
通涨为四十年新高,纳指应跌超过20%,还有一半下跌路要走,轻仓观望为主
DaiJing
2022-01-20
别人恐慌我贪婪,逆向思维
昨夜今晨:深夜暴跌!恐慌情绪升温,科技股噩梦来袭?
DaiJing
2021-12-20
$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$
今晚见你抬头
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a>吉白股,死半年多了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a>吉白股,死半年多了","text":"$台积电(TSM)$吉白股,死半年多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681994182","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617540015,"gmtCreate":1654523482540,"gmtModify":1704859619108,"author":{"id":"3582756543893392","authorId":"3582756543893392","name":"DaiJing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e7543d02beedb18f03f711a1c25e32","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582756543893392","authorIdStr":"3582756543893392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>孩童般性格的CEO的股票不值得跟随","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>孩童般性格的CEO的股票不值得跟随","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$孩童般性格的CEO的股票不值得跟随","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617540015","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614849893,"gmtCreate":1653522590317,"gmtModify":1653522591446,"author":{"id":"3582756543893392","authorId":"3582756543893392","name":"DaiJing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e7543d02beedb18f03f711a1c25e32","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582756543893392","authorIdStr":"3582756543893392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在是最好的时机离开美股,融资做大后就可离开回A股上市了","listText":"现在是最好的时机离开美股,融资做大后就可离开回A股上市了","text":"现在是最好的时机离开美股,融资做大后就可离开回A股上市了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614849893","repostId":"1144720351","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144720351","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652957446,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144720351?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-19 18:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 阿里“稳了”?资金的“态度”永远是最真实的!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144720351","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"国际投行以及资管巨头近期纷纷高调看多阿里。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>阿里巴巴将2022年5月26日美股盘前公布截至2022年3月31日的2022财年第四季度及全年财报。(注:阿里巴巴财年与自然年不同步,从每年的4月1日开始,至第二年的3月31日结束)美国银行预测:得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>阿里还未公布财报,投资者就开始为其“定调”,认为财报不会太好看。因为,市场对阿里的核心业务电商基本盘的优势却存在分歧。</p><p>在阿里的收入结构中,核心商业(包括淘宝、天猫、1688、Lazada平台等平台电商业务,也包括盒马鲜生、银泰百货等新零售业务,以及菜鸟网络、饿了么、口碑等服务基础设施。)占比88%,是公司最主要的现金流业务,也是公司四大业务板块中主要贡献盈利的业务。</p><p>最新的2021年电商零售平台市场份额数据显示,目前市场占比前五名的分别为淘宝51%、京东20%、拼多多15%、抖音电商5%、快手电商4%,剩下不到5%的市场份额则由其他平台瓜分。<b>阿里份额连降5年,距离巅峰时期75%的市场份额跌幅超20%,</b>但不可否认,阿里依然占着半壁江山的市场,基本盘仍很稳定的。</p><p><span style=\"color:rgba(224,31,16,1);\">虽然阿里的基本盘未变且优势明显,但不少专业投资人表示,短期市场对其估值不会太慷慨。</span>有不少投资人表示,阿里也应该为第二条增长曲线做考虑。但互联网从成长到成熟的大浪淘沙,证伪了很多只烧钱不赚钱的市场模式。在不少投资人看来,这一轮洗牌跟2002年、2003年那一拨差不多,真正有护城河且能够促使整体的业态效率提升的公司,就能做大做强,像亚马逊、微软都能活下来,而且活得都很不错。</p><p><b>与上述投资人形成鲜明对比的是,国际投行以及资管巨头近期纷纷高调看多阿里。</b></p><p>经历史诗级抛售潮后,外资机构正在重新审视中国互联网科技企业的投资价值。5月16日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>突然对中国互联网科技股“全面看多”,集体上调了中国互联网科技股的评级、目标价。其指出,正在重新审视短期和长期基本面前景,中国互联网行业正在摆脱各种不确定性,未来头部公司的股价或将超预期上涨。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76f2288c46e60a481dc5e28ad988fadb\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>资金的“态度”,永远是最真实的!华尔街“顶流”机构已经掏出真金白银抄底阿里。</b></p><p>近日,全球最大对冲基金桥水基金向美国证交会(SEC)提交了一季度13F美股持仓报告。报告显示,互联网中概股以及新兴市场标的成为加仓重点。具体来看,在一季度,桥水基金买入321万股阿里巴巴,增持幅度达75%,截至报告期末持仓市值达8.14亿美元。阿里巴巴成为桥水基金的美股持仓第六大重仓股。</p><p>不只是桥水,抄底的还有富达。富达旗下价值干将宁静管理的富达中国焦点基金“Fidelity Funds - China Focus Fund” ,3月对阿里巴巴进行了大手笔增持,对阿里巴巴ADR增持幅度32.29%,对阿里巴巴港股增持幅度高达82.86%。此前,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。不过,宁静也谈到,买入未必是看到股价见底,有可能股价还会跌一阵子。这是痛苦的地方。</p><p><b>阿里的最新财报,“不太可能”出现意外</b></p><p><b>美国银行</b>分析师Eddie Leung发布研报认为,尽管中国在上半年因疫情实施了封锁措施,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>在5月26日公布业绩时“不太可能”出现意外,并重申该股“买入”评级,目标价为175美元。</p><p>该分析师指出,得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。</p><p>另外,由于封锁措施影响,Leung还将阿里巴巴2023财年的营收和利润预期分别下调了3%和4%,但保持了对2024财年的预期不变。“市场应该已经充分消化了封锁措施所带来的影响,并在股价上有所反映,”Leung表示,“尽管部分地区实施了限制措施,但其他一线城市的电商配送受到的影响有限。”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\"><b>瑞银</b></a>发表报告表示,基於新冠疫情、监管及宏观经济所来带来挑战,决定下调对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)及2023财年预测,但考虑到集团聚焦提升低线城市、社区团购等业务效率,仍然预期今年成本减少。随着内地消费今年稍後时间复苏,料阿里收入及盈利增长会加速。考虑到阿里目前估值仅预测今明两年市盈率各10倍及9倍,按其2023财年至2025财年EBIT增长达13%计,认为其风险与回报吸引。</p><p>该行重申对阿里巴巴「买入」投资评级,将目标价由150美元降至140美元,相当於预测2023财年及2024财年预测市盈率各13倍及12倍,亦相当於对阿里巴巴 的目标价136港元(此前予其146港元)。瑞银下调阿里巴巴2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)收入预测1.9%至2,002亿人民币(相当於按年升6.8%),降阿里巴巴2023财年收入预测3.5%至9,444亿人民币(相当於按年升11.2%),并下调对阿里2022财年第四财季经调整EBITA预测15.3%,并降其2023财年经调整EBITA预测13.4%。</p><p><b>风险是涨出来,机会是跌出来</b></p><p>其实,复盘中国互联网科技股的这一轮大跌,导火索是国内对互联网反垄断监管政策,叠加科技股的估值泡沫,而2022年以来,美联储加息、俄乌局势、美国监管机构对中国在美上市公司的摘牌警告等一系列利空因素叠加,进而加速了中国互联网科技股的抛售潮。</p><p>站在当前时点,中国互联网科技股面临的政策风险已经大幅释放。首先是,国务院金融稳定发展委员会定调:关于平台经济治理,有关部门要按照市场化、法治化、国际化的方针完善既定方案,坚持稳中求进,通过规范、透明、可预期的监管,稳妥推进并尽快完成大型平台公司整改工作,红灯、绿灯都要设置好,促进平台经济平稳健康发展,提高国际竞争力。</p><p>对于美国PCAOB审计底稿的谈判一直在持续,国务院金融委也指出,目前中美双方监管机构保持了良好沟通,已取得积极进展,正在致力于形成具体合作方案,中国政府继续支持各类企业到境外上市。</p><p>很显然,目前监管层面已经出现了积极信号,监管最严厉的时点大概率已经过去。</p><p>回到估值层面,上述中提到,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f49a2dace477b49b0fe160ffed747784\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>客观来看,这一轮监管风暴过后,中国新经济的发展环境将进入良性增长,而中国新经济巨头在适应监管后,经营业绩也大概率将会重回增长。以美国的科技企业为例,美国的监管政策一直都非常严苛,在适应监管节奏之后,美股的科技互联网巨头的经营业绩,大部分都重新回归正增长。</p><p>综上所述,当前时点,大概率是投资中国科技互联网行业最好的时点,可以用超低的价格,获得一大批中国最具竞争力的核心资产。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 阿里“稳了”?资金的“态度”永远是最真实的!</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 阿里“稳了”?资金的“态度”永远是最真实的!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-19 18:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>阿里巴巴将2022年5月26日美股盘前公布截至2022年3月31日的2022财年第四季度及全年财报。(注:阿里巴巴财年与自然年不同步,从每年的4月1日开始,至第二年的3月31日结束)美国银行预测:得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>阿里还未公布财报,投资者就开始为其“定调”,认为财报不会太好看。因为,市场对阿里的核心业务电商基本盘的优势却存在分歧。</p><p>在阿里的收入结构中,核心商业(包括淘宝、天猫、1688、Lazada平台等平台电商业务,也包括盒马鲜生、银泰百货等新零售业务,以及菜鸟网络、饿了么、口碑等服务基础设施。)占比88%,是公司最主要的现金流业务,也是公司四大业务板块中主要贡献盈利的业务。</p><p>最新的2021年电商零售平台市场份额数据显示,目前市场占比前五名的分别为淘宝51%、京东20%、拼多多15%、抖音电商5%、快手电商4%,剩下不到5%的市场份额则由其他平台瓜分。<b>阿里份额连降5年,距离巅峰时期75%的市场份额跌幅超20%,</b>但不可否认,阿里依然占着半壁江山的市场,基本盘仍很稳定的。</p><p><span style=\"color:rgba(224,31,16,1);\">虽然阿里的基本盘未变且优势明显,但不少专业投资人表示,短期市场对其估值不会太慷慨。</span>有不少投资人表示,阿里也应该为第二条增长曲线做考虑。但互联网从成长到成熟的大浪淘沙,证伪了很多只烧钱不赚钱的市场模式。在不少投资人看来,这一轮洗牌跟2002年、2003年那一拨差不多,真正有护城河且能够促使整体的业态效率提升的公司,就能做大做强,像亚马逊、微软都能活下来,而且活得都很不错。</p><p><b>与上述投资人形成鲜明对比的是,国际投行以及资管巨头近期纷纷高调看多阿里。</b></p><p>经历史诗级抛售潮后,外资机构正在重新审视中国互联网科技企业的投资价值。5月16日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>突然对中国互联网科技股“全面看多”,集体上调了中国互联网科技股的评级、目标价。其指出,正在重新审视短期和长期基本面前景,中国互联网行业正在摆脱各种不确定性,未来头部公司的股价或将超预期上涨。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76f2288c46e60a481dc5e28ad988fadb\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>资金的“态度”,永远是最真实的!华尔街“顶流”机构已经掏出真金白银抄底阿里。</b></p><p>近日,全球最大对冲基金桥水基金向美国证交会(SEC)提交了一季度13F美股持仓报告。报告显示,互联网中概股以及新兴市场标的成为加仓重点。具体来看,在一季度,桥水基金买入321万股阿里巴巴,增持幅度达75%,截至报告期末持仓市值达8.14亿美元。阿里巴巴成为桥水基金的美股持仓第六大重仓股。</p><p>不只是桥水,抄底的还有富达。富达旗下价值干将宁静管理的富达中国焦点基金“Fidelity Funds - China Focus Fund” ,3月对阿里巴巴进行了大手笔增持,对阿里巴巴ADR增持幅度32.29%,对阿里巴巴港股增持幅度高达82.86%。此前,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。不过,宁静也谈到,买入未必是看到股价见底,有可能股价还会跌一阵子。这是痛苦的地方。</p><p><b>阿里的最新财报,“不太可能”出现意外</b></p><p><b>美国银行</b>分析师Eddie Leung发布研报认为,尽管中国在上半年因疫情实施了封锁措施,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>在5月26日公布业绩时“不太可能”出现意外,并重申该股“买入”评级,目标价为175美元。</p><p>该分析师指出,得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。</p><p>另外,由于封锁措施影响,Leung还将阿里巴巴2023财年的营收和利润预期分别下调了3%和4%,但保持了对2024财年的预期不变。“市场应该已经充分消化了封锁措施所带来的影响,并在股价上有所反映,”Leung表示,“尽管部分地区实施了限制措施,但其他一线城市的电商配送受到的影响有限。”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\"><b>瑞银</b></a>发表报告表示,基於新冠疫情、监管及宏观经济所来带来挑战,决定下调对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)及2023财年预测,但考虑到集团聚焦提升低线城市、社区团购等业务效率,仍然预期今年成本减少。随着内地消费今年稍後时间复苏,料阿里收入及盈利增长会加速。考虑到阿里目前估值仅预测今明两年市盈率各10倍及9倍,按其2023财年至2025财年EBIT增长达13%计,认为其风险与回报吸引。</p><p>该行重申对阿里巴巴「买入」投资评级,将目标价由150美元降至140美元,相当於预测2023财年及2024财年预测市盈率各13倍及12倍,亦相当於对阿里巴巴 的目标价136港元(此前予其146港元)。瑞银下调阿里巴巴2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)收入预测1.9%至2,002亿人民币(相当於按年升6.8%),降阿里巴巴2023财年收入预测3.5%至9,444亿人民币(相当於按年升11.2%),并下调对阿里2022财年第四财季经调整EBITA预测15.3%,并降其2023财年经调整EBITA预测13.4%。</p><p><b>风险是涨出来,机会是跌出来</b></p><p>其实,复盘中国互联网科技股的这一轮大跌,导火索是国内对互联网反垄断监管政策,叠加科技股的估值泡沫,而2022年以来,美联储加息、俄乌局势、美国监管机构对中国在美上市公司的摘牌警告等一系列利空因素叠加,进而加速了中国互联网科技股的抛售潮。</p><p>站在当前时点,中国互联网科技股面临的政策风险已经大幅释放。首先是,国务院金融稳定发展委员会定调:关于平台经济治理,有关部门要按照市场化、法治化、国际化的方针完善既定方案,坚持稳中求进,通过规范、透明、可预期的监管,稳妥推进并尽快完成大型平台公司整改工作,红灯、绿灯都要设置好,促进平台经济平稳健康发展,提高国际竞争力。</p><p>对于美国PCAOB审计底稿的谈判一直在持续,国务院金融委也指出,目前中美双方监管机构保持了良好沟通,已取得积极进展,正在致力于形成具体合作方案,中国政府继续支持各类企业到境外上市。</p><p>很显然,目前监管层面已经出现了积极信号,监管最严厉的时点大概率已经过去。</p><p>回到估值层面,上述中提到,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f49a2dace477b49b0fe160ffed747784\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>客观来看,这一轮监管风暴过后,中国新经济的发展环境将进入良性增长,而中国新经济巨头在适应监管后,经营业绩也大概率将会重回增长。以美国的科技企业为例,美国的监管政策一直都非常严苛,在适应监管节奏之后,美股的科技互联网巨头的经营业绩,大部分都重新回归正增长。</p><p>综上所述,当前时点,大概率是投资中国科技互联网行业最好的时点,可以用超低的价格,获得一大批中国最具竞争力的核心资产。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144720351","content_text":"阿里巴巴将2022年5月26日美股盘前公布截至2022年3月31日的2022财年第四季度及全年财报。(注:阿里巴巴财年与自然年不同步,从每年的4月1日开始,至第二年的3月31日结束)美国银行预测:得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。阿里还未公布财报,投资者就开始为其“定调”,认为财报不会太好看。因为,市场对阿里的核心业务电商基本盘的优势却存在分歧。在阿里的收入结构中,核心商业(包括淘宝、天猫、1688、Lazada平台等平台电商业务,也包括盒马鲜生、银泰百货等新零售业务,以及菜鸟网络、饿了么、口碑等服务基础设施。)占比88%,是公司最主要的现金流业务,也是公司四大业务板块中主要贡献盈利的业务。最新的2021年电商零售平台市场份额数据显示,目前市场占比前五名的分别为淘宝51%、京东20%、拼多多15%、抖音电商5%、快手电商4%,剩下不到5%的市场份额则由其他平台瓜分。阿里份额连降5年,距离巅峰时期75%的市场份额跌幅超20%,但不可否认,阿里依然占着半壁江山的市场,基本盘仍很稳定的。虽然阿里的基本盘未变且优势明显,但不少专业投资人表示,短期市场对其估值不会太慷慨。有不少投资人表示,阿里也应该为第二条增长曲线做考虑。但互联网从成长到成熟的大浪淘沙,证伪了很多只烧钱不赚钱的市场模式。在不少投资人看来,这一轮洗牌跟2002年、2003年那一拨差不多,真正有护城河且能够促使整体的业态效率提升的公司,就能做大做强,像亚马逊、微软都能活下来,而且活得都很不错。与上述投资人形成鲜明对比的是,国际投行以及资管巨头近期纷纷高调看多阿里。经历史诗级抛售潮后,外资机构正在重新审视中国互联网科技企业的投资价值。5月16日,摩根大通突然对中国互联网科技股“全面看多”,集体上调了中国互联网科技股的评级、目标价。其指出,正在重新审视短期和长期基本面前景,中国互联网行业正在摆脱各种不确定性,未来头部公司的股价或将超预期上涨。资金的“态度”,永远是最真实的!华尔街“顶流”机构已经掏出真金白银抄底阿里。近日,全球最大对冲基金桥水基金向美国证交会(SEC)提交了一季度13F美股持仓报告。报告显示,互联网中概股以及新兴市场标的成为加仓重点。具体来看,在一季度,桥水基金买入321万股阿里巴巴,增持幅度达75%,截至报告期末持仓市值达8.14亿美元。阿里巴巴成为桥水基金的美股持仓第六大重仓股。不只是桥水,抄底的还有富达。富达旗下价值干将宁静管理的富达中国焦点基金“Fidelity Funds - China Focus Fund” ,3月对阿里巴巴进行了大手笔增持,对阿里巴巴ADR增持幅度32.29%,对阿里巴巴港股增持幅度高达82.86%。此前,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。不过,宁静也谈到,买入未必是看到股价见底,有可能股价还会跌一阵子。这是痛苦的地方。阿里的最新财报,“不太可能”出现意外美国银行分析师Eddie Leung发布研报认为,尽管中国在上半年因疫情实施了封锁措施,阿里巴巴在5月26日公布业绩时“不太可能”出现意外,并重申该股“买入”评级,目标价为175美元。该分析师指出,得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。另外,由于封锁措施影响,Leung还将阿里巴巴2023财年的营收和利润预期分别下调了3%和4%,但保持了对2024财年的预期不变。“市场应该已经充分消化了封锁措施所带来的影响,并在股价上有所反映,”Leung表示,“尽管部分地区实施了限制措施,但其他一线城市的电商配送受到的影响有限。”瑞银发表报告表示,基於新冠疫情、监管及宏观经济所来带来挑战,决定下调对阿里巴巴2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)及2023财年预测,但考虑到集团聚焦提升低线城市、社区团购等业务效率,仍然预期今年成本减少。随着内地消费今年稍後时间复苏,料阿里收入及盈利增长会加速。考虑到阿里目前估值仅预测今明两年市盈率各10倍及9倍,按其2023财年至2025财年EBIT增长达13%计,认为其风险与回报吸引。该行重申对阿里巴巴「买入」投资评级,将目标价由150美元降至140美元,相当於预测2023财年及2024财年预测市盈率各13倍及12倍,亦相当於对阿里巴巴 的目标价136港元(此前予其146港元)。瑞银下调阿里巴巴2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)收入预测1.9%至2,002亿人民币(相当於按年升6.8%),降阿里巴巴2023财年收入预测3.5%至9,444亿人民币(相当於按年升11.2%),并下调对阿里2022财年第四财季经调整EBITA预测15.3%,并降其2023财年经调整EBITA预测13.4%。风险是涨出来,机会是跌出来其实,复盘中国互联网科技股的这一轮大跌,导火索是国内对互联网反垄断监管政策,叠加科技股的估值泡沫,而2022年以来,美联储加息、俄乌局势、美国监管机构对中国在美上市公司的摘牌警告等一系列利空因素叠加,进而加速了中国互联网科技股的抛售潮。站在当前时点,中国互联网科技股面临的政策风险已经大幅释放。首先是,国务院金融稳定发展委员会定调:关于平台经济治理,有关部门要按照市场化、法治化、国际化的方针完善既定方案,坚持稳中求进,通过规范、透明、可预期的监管,稳妥推进并尽快完成大型平台公司整改工作,红灯、绿灯都要设置好,促进平台经济平稳健康发展,提高国际竞争力。对于美国PCAOB审计底稿的谈判一直在持续,国务院金融委也指出,目前中美双方监管机构保持了良好沟通,已取得积极进展,正在致力于形成具体合作方案,中国政府继续支持各类企业到境外上市。很显然,目前监管层面已经出现了积极信号,监管最严厉的时点大概率已经过去。回到估值层面,上述中提到,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。客观来看,这一轮监管风暴过后,中国新经济的发展环境将进入良性增长,而中国新经济巨头在适应监管后,经营业绩也大概率将会重回增长。以美国的科技企业为例,美国的监管政策一直都非常严苛,在适应监管节奏之后,美股的科技互联网巨头的经营业绩,大部分都重新回归正增长。综上所述,当前时点,大概率是投资中国科技互联网行业最好的时点,可以用超低的价格,获得一大批中国最具竞争力的核心资产。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614195724,"gmtCreate":1653424141168,"gmtModify":1653424143876,"author":{"id":"3582756543893392","authorId":"3582756543893392","name":"DaiJing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e7543d02beedb18f03f711a1c25e32","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582756543893392","authorIdStr":"3582756543893392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-05 21:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月5日,热门中概股持续走低,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌超8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GDS\">万国数据</a>跌7.8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌超4%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d61c2610772001a434d56068a4d7992\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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07:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨:深夜暴跌!恐慌情绪升温,科技股噩梦来袭?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184610078","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要:美债收益率攀升,美股收跌纳指跌2.6%;动视暴雪大涨近26%,获微软重金收购;Q4财报不及预期,高盛收跌近7%;国际油价创七年新高,美油逼近86美元,布油升破88美元>>>国际市场收盘:美债收益","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要:</b>美债收益率攀升,美股收跌纳指跌2.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">动视暴雪</a>大涨近26%,获<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>重金收购;Q4财报不及预期,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>收跌近7%;国际油价创七年新高,美油逼近86美元,布油升破88美元>>></blockquote><p><b>国际市场</b></p><p><b>收盘:美债收益率攀升,美股收跌纳指跌2.6%</b></p><p>美股周二收跌,美国国债收益率大幅攀升,令高成长科技股承压。截至收盘,道琼斯指数跌1.51%,报35,368.47点;标普500指数跌1.83%,报4,577.34点;纳斯达克指数跌2.60%,报14,506.90点。</p><p>大型科技股悉数下挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>跌1.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌1.99%,Meta跌4.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>跌2.50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌2.43%,奈飞跌2.83%。</p><p>美股疫苗股重挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>大跌13.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯医药</a>跌逾11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderan</a>跌近9%。</p><p><b>热门中概股收盘多数走低,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>逆势大涨近10%</b></p><p>热门中概股多数收跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌2.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌0.43%,微博跌2.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌1.81%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌1.03%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌6.63%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌1.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>跌2.96%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌1.44%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>涨2.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨4.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨近10%</p><p><b>美国WTI原油周二收高1.9%,创8年来最高收盘价</b></p><p>美国原油期货价格周二上涨,并创2014年以来的最高收盘价。纽约商品交易所2月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨1.61美元,涨幅为1.9%,收于每桶85.43美元,为2014年10月以来最高的近月WTI合约收盘价。</p><p><b>美元与美债收益率攀升,黄金期货周二收跌</b></p><p>黄金价格周二收低,抹去了早间因悲观经济数据和全球股市整体下跌而导致的涨幅。美国国债收益率升至2020年以来的最高水平以及美元走强,使黄金期货录得连续第三个交易日下跌。周二纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格下跌4.10美元,跌幅为0.2%,收于每盎司1812.40美元,盘中最高升至1822.40美元。</p><p><b>欧股集体收跌,德国DAX30指数跌1.01%</b></p><p>德国DAX30指数跌1.01%,法国CAC40指数跌0.94%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数跌0.59%,西班牙IBEX35指数跌0.66%,意大利富时MIB指数跌0.79%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.03%。</p><p><b>国际宏观</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2204841800\" target=\"_blank\"><b>货币市场预计美联储或一次升息50基点,将是2020年以来最大动作</b></a></p><p>货币市场价格显示,越来越多投资者预期美联储可能逾二十年来首次大规模提高借贷成本。虽然加息25个基点仍是最有可能的情形,但掉期市场现在预计3月底前加息幅度将超过25个基点。鉴于本月政策会议预计不会有任何行动,这表明交易员至少正在考虑3月加息50个基点的可能性。自2000年5月以来, 美联储还从没有一口气加息这么多过。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2204841800\" target=\"_blank\"><b>原油飙升至2014年以来高点,拜登政府称正继续与产油国合作</b></a></p><p>油价升至七年高点之际,白宫称拜登政府正在与产油国合作,将确保供应达到足以满足需求的水平。美国国家安全委员会发言人Emily Horne周二在一份声明中表示,白宫计划继续在全球经济增长的背景下监控能源价格,必要时会与OPEC+国家举行磋商。</p><p><b>美国1月纽约州制造业指数意外骤跌至负值,创近两年最大降幅</b></p><p>1月纽约州一项制造业指数较前月下跌,订单和出货量指标大幅回落,表明omicron变异株导致制造业活动减少。周二公布的数据显示,纽约联储银行制造业指数从一个月前的31.9锐降至-0.7。低于零表明经济活动萎缩,且该数据逊于接受彭博的所有经济学家预期。</p><p><b>公司新闻</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"1197369939"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>微软斥重金收购动视暴雪!五大关键理由曝光</b></a><b></b></p><p>微软宣布计划以每股95美元的现金收购游戏开发和互动娱乐内容发行商动视暴雪,交易总金额约为687亿美元。动视暴雪收盘暴涨25.88%,盘中一度涨超32%</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"2204081944"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>2021年苹果手机占全球智能手机出货量22%,位居第一</b></a><b></b></p><p>数据研究机构Canalys发布的最新报告显示,得益于iPhone 13的成功,苹果手机在2021年占全球智能手机出货量的22%,坐上全球智能手机市场的头把交椅,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>以20%的市场份额紧随其后。此外,小米以12%排名第三,OPPO以9%排名第四,vivo以8%排名前五。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2204081477\" target=\"_blank\"><b>苹果公司:反垄断法案将增加iPhone用户安全风险</b></a></p><p>苹果公司周二在致立法者的一封信中警告称,参议院正在审议的反垄断法案将增加iPhone用户面临安全漏洞的风险,部分原因是其可能会迫使该公司允许在App Store之外下载应用程序。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2204089224\" target=\"_blank\"><b>多方压力之下,美国通信巨头AT&T再次推迟部分5G部署</b></a></p><p>当地时间周二,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">美国电话电报</a>公司(AT&T)宣布,它将推迟在部分美国关键机场周围部署5G服务的计划。AT&T和Verizon原计划定于本周三开始部署5G,但美国主要的航空公司周一敦促推迟部署5G服务,理由是5G服务可能会导致大量宽体飞机无法使用,可能会让数以万计的美国人滞留海外,并给美国航班造成混乱。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"1133566516"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>与饿了么的独家合作到期后,星巴克与美团开展外卖配送合作</b></a><b></b></p><p>知名连锁咖啡巨头星巴克宣布与美团建立合作伙伴关系,允许其用户通过美团平台订购咖啡外卖。除了外卖配送合作之外,双方还将推出一项服务,允许用户进行私人预定,以便在星巴克门店品尝并学习制作咖啡。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"1155086039"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>高盛第四季度交易收入下滑,疫情交易热浪降温</b></a><b></b></p><p>高盛集团第四季度的股票交易收入下降,进一步证明疫情引发的交易热潮正在降温。该行交易总收入下滑7%,而分析师预期为小幅增长;其中股票交易收入下降11%。尽管高盛全年的营收和盈利双双创历史最高水平,但他们仍需要解决投资者对交易业务下滑的担忧。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"1168106037"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>京东与Shopify达成战略合作协议,进一步发展全球电子商务业务</b></a><b></b></p><p>京东周二发布声明称,为提升跨境业务,京东已经与加拿大企业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify Inc</a>.达成战略合作协议。此次合作将使中国商家能够利用Shopify的平台并在全球行销。Shopify上的零售商也可以通过京东接触到中国客户,并利用京东的供应链和物流服务。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨:深夜暴跌!恐慌情绪升温,科技股噩梦来袭?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨:深夜暴跌!恐慌情绪升温,科技股噩梦来袭?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-19 07:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要:</b>美债收益率攀升,美股收跌纳指跌2.6%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">动视暴雪</a>大涨近26%,获<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>重金收购;Q4财报不及预期,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>收跌近7%;国际油价创七年新高,美油逼近86美元,布油升破88美元>>></blockquote><p><b>国际市场</b></p><p><b>收盘:美债收益率攀升,美股收跌纳指跌2.6%</b></p><p>美股周二收跌,美国国债收益率大幅攀升,令高成长科技股承压。截至收盘,道琼斯指数跌1.51%,报35,368.47点;标普500指数跌1.83%,报4,577.34点;纳斯达克指数跌2.60%,报14,506.90点。</p><p>大型科技股悉数下挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>跌1.89%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>跌1.99%,Meta跌4.14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>跌2.50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌2.43%,奈飞跌2.83%。</p><p>美股疫苗股重挫,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>大跌13.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯医药</a>跌逾11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderan</a>跌近9%。</p><p><b>热门中概股收盘多数走低,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>逆势大涨近10%</b></p><p>热门中概股多数收跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌2.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌0.43%,微博跌2.25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌1.81%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌1.03%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌6.63%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>跌1.57%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>跌2.96%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌1.44%;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨1.85%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>涨2.36%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨4.9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨近10%</p><p><b>美国WTI原油周二收高1.9%,创8年来最高收盘价</b></p><p>美国原油期货价格周二上涨,并创2014年以来的最高收盘价。纽约商品交易所2月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨1.61美元,涨幅为1.9%,收于每桶85.43美元,为2014年10月以来最高的近月WTI合约收盘价。</p><p><b>美元与美债收益率攀升,黄金期货周二收跌</b></p><p>黄金价格周二收低,抹去了早间因悲观经济数据和全球股市整体下跌而导致的涨幅。美国国债收益率升至2020年以来的最高水平以及美元走强,使黄金期货录得连续第三个交易日下跌。周二纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格下跌4.10美元,跌幅为0.2%,收于每盎司1812.40美元,盘中最高升至1822.40美元。</p><p><b>欧股集体收跌,德国DAX30指数跌1.01%</b></p><p>德国DAX30指数跌1.01%,法国CAC40指数跌0.94%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数跌0.59%,西班牙IBEX35指数跌0.66%,意大利富时MIB指数跌0.79%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.03%。</p><p><b>国际宏观</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2204841800\" target=\"_blank\"><b>货币市场预计美联储或一次升息50基点,将是2020年以来最大动作</b></a></p><p>货币市场价格显示,越来越多投资者预期美联储可能逾二十年来首次大规模提高借贷成本。虽然加息25个基点仍是最有可能的情形,但掉期市场现在预计3月底前加息幅度将超过25个基点。鉴于本月政策会议预计不会有任何行动,这表明交易员至少正在考虑3月加息50个基点的可能性。自2000年5月以来, 美联储还从没有一口气加息这么多过。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2204841800\" target=\"_blank\"><b>原油飙升至2014年以来高点,拜登政府称正继续与产油国合作</b></a></p><p>油价升至七年高点之际,白宫称拜登政府正在与产油国合作,将确保供应达到足以满足需求的水平。美国国家安全委员会发言人Emily Horne周二在一份声明中表示,白宫计划继续在全球经济增长的背景下监控能源价格,必要时会与OPEC+国家举行磋商。</p><p><b>美国1月纽约州制造业指数意外骤跌至负值,创近两年最大降幅</b></p><p>1月纽约州一项制造业指数较前月下跌,订单和出货量指标大幅回落,表明omicron变异株导致制造业活动减少。周二公布的数据显示,纽约联储银行制造业指数从一个月前的31.9锐降至-0.7。低于零表明经济活动萎缩,且该数据逊于接受彭博的所有经济学家预期。</p><p><b>公司新闻</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"1197369939"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>微软斥重金收购动视暴雪!五大关键理由曝光</b></a><b></b></p><p>微软宣布计划以每股95美元的现金收购游戏开发和互动娱乐内容发行商动视暴雪,交易总金额约为687亿美元。动视暴雪收盘暴涨25.88%,盘中一度涨超32%</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"2204081944"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>2021年苹果手机占全球智能手机出货量22%,位居第一</b></a><b></b></p><p>数据研究机构Canalys发布的最新报告显示,得益于iPhone 13的成功,苹果手机在2021年占全球智能手机出货量的22%,坐上全球智能手机市场的头把交椅,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>以20%的市场份额紧随其后。此外,小米以12%排名第三,OPPO以9%排名第四,vivo以8%排名前五。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2204081477\" target=\"_blank\"><b>苹果公司:反垄断法案将增加iPhone用户安全风险</b></a></p><p>苹果公司周二在致立法者的一封信中警告称,参议院正在审议的反垄断法案将增加iPhone用户面临安全漏洞的风险,部分原因是其可能会迫使该公司允许在App Store之外下载应用程序。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2204089224\" target=\"_blank\"><b>多方压力之下,美国通信巨头AT&T再次推迟部分5G部署</b></a></p><p>当地时间周二,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">美国电话电报</a>公司(AT&T)宣布,它将推迟在部分美国关键机场周围部署5G服务的计划。AT&T和Verizon原计划定于本周三开始部署5G,但美国主要的航空公司周一敦促推迟部署5G服务,理由是5G服务可能会导致大量宽体飞机无法使用,可能会让数以万计的美国人滞留海外,并给美国航班造成混乱。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"1133566516"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>与饿了么的独家合作到期后,星巴克与美团开展外卖配送合作</b></a><b></b></p><p>知名连锁咖啡巨头星巴克宣布与美团建立合作伙伴关系,允许其用户通过美团平台订购咖啡外卖。除了外卖配送合作之外,双方还将推出一项服务,允许用户进行私人预定,以便在星巴克门店品尝并学习制作咖啡。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"1155086039"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>高盛第四季度交易收入下滑,疫情交易热浪降温</b></a><b></b></p><p>高盛集团第四季度的股票交易收入下降,进一步证明疫情引发的交易热潮正在降温。该行交易总收入下滑7%,而分析师预期为小幅增长;其中股票交易收入下降11%。尽管高盛全年的营收和盈利双双创历史最高水平,但他们仍需要解决投资者对交易业务下滑的担忧。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/{"id":"1168106037"}\" target=\"_blank\"><b>京东与Shopify达成战略合作协议,进一步发展全球电子商务业务</b></a><b></b></p><p>京东周二发布声明称,为提升跨境业务,京东已经与加拿大企业<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify Inc</a>.达成战略合作协议。此次合作将使中国商家能够利用Shopify的平台并在全球行销。Shopify上的零售商也可以通过京东接触到中国客户,并利用京东的供应链和物流服务。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药",".DJI":"道琼斯","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03086":"华夏纳指","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BNTX":"BioNTech SE",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184610078","content_text":"摘要:美债收益率攀升,美股收跌纳指跌2.6%;动视暴雪大涨近26%,获微软重金收购;Q4财报不及预期,高盛收跌近7%;国际油价创七年新高,美油逼近86美元,布油升破88美元>>>国际市场收盘:美债收益率攀升,美股收跌纳指跌2.6%美股周二收跌,美国国债收益率大幅攀升,令高成长科技股承压。截至收盘,道琼斯指数跌1.51%,报35,368.47点;标普500指数跌1.83%,报4,577.34点;纳斯达克指数跌2.60%,报14,506.90点。大型科技股悉数下挫,苹果跌1.89%,亚马逊跌1.99%,Meta跌4.14%,谷歌跌2.50%,微软跌2.43%,奈飞跌2.83%。美股疫苗股重挫,BioNTech大跌13.66%,诺瓦瓦克斯医药跌逾11%,Moderan跌近9%。热门中概股收盘多数走低,高途逆势大涨近10%热门中概股多数收跌,阿里巴巴跌2.26%,京东跌0.43%,微博跌2.25%,哔哩哔哩跌1.81%,百度跌1.03%,新东方跌6.63%,网易跌1.57%,腾讯音乐跌2.96%,爱奇艺跌1.44%;拼多多涨1.85%,滴滴涨2.36%,贝壳涨4.9%,高途涨近10%美国WTI原油周二收高1.9%,创8年来最高收盘价美国原油期货价格周二上涨,并创2014年以来的最高收盘价。纽约商品交易所2月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨1.61美元,涨幅为1.9%,收于每桶85.43美元,为2014年10月以来最高的近月WTI合约收盘价。美元与美债收益率攀升,黄金期货周二收跌黄金价格周二收低,抹去了早间因悲观经济数据和全球股市整体下跌而导致的涨幅。美国国债收益率升至2020年以来的最高水平以及美元走强,使黄金期货录得连续第三个交易日下跌。周二纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期货价格下跌4.10美元,跌幅为0.2%,收于每盎司1812.40美元,盘中最高升至1822.40美元。欧股集体收跌,德国DAX30指数跌1.01%德国DAX30指数跌1.01%,法国CAC40指数跌0.94%,英国富时100指数跌0.59%,西班牙IBEX35指数跌0.66%,意大利富时MIB指数跌0.79%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.03%。国际宏观货币市场预计美联储或一次升息50基点,将是2020年以来最大动作货币市场价格显示,越来越多投资者预期美联储可能逾二十年来首次大规模提高借贷成本。虽然加息25个基点仍是最有可能的情形,但掉期市场现在预计3月底前加息幅度将超过25个基点。鉴于本月政策会议预计不会有任何行动,这表明交易员至少正在考虑3月加息50个基点的可能性。自2000年5月以来, 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过瘾,大起大落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/199704421","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":681994182,"gmtCreate":1656595534049,"gmtModify":1704865350103,"author":{"id":"3582756543893392","authorId":"3582756543893392","name":"DaiJing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e7543d02beedb18f03f711a1c25e32","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582756543893392","idStr":"3582756543893392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a>吉白股,死半年多了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a>吉白股,死半年多了","text":"$台积电(TSM)$吉白股,死半年多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681994182","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614849893,"gmtCreate":1653522590317,"gmtModify":1653522591446,"author":{"id":"3582756543893392","authorId":"3582756543893392","name":"DaiJing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e7543d02beedb18f03f711a1c25e32","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582756543893392","idStr":"3582756543893392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在是最好的时机离开美股,融资做大后就可离开回A股上市了","listText":"现在是最好的时机离开美股,融资做大后就可离开回A股上市了","text":"现在是最好的时机离开美股,融资做大后就可离开回A股上市了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614849893","repostId":"1144720351","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144720351","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652957446,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144720351?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-19 18:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 阿里“稳了”?资金的“态度”永远是最真实的!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144720351","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"国际投行以及资管巨头近期纷纷高调看多阿里。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>阿里巴巴将2022年5月26日美股盘前公布截至2022年3月31日的2022财年第四季度及全年财报。(注:阿里巴巴财年与自然年不同步,从每年的4月1日开始,至第二年的3月31日结束)美国银行预测:得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>阿里还未公布财报,投资者就开始为其“定调”,认为财报不会太好看。因为,市场对阿里的核心业务电商基本盘的优势却存在分歧。</p><p>在阿里的收入结构中,核心商业(包括淘宝、天猫、1688、Lazada平台等平台电商业务,也包括盒马鲜生、银泰百货等新零售业务,以及菜鸟网络、饿了么、口碑等服务基础设施。)占比88%,是公司最主要的现金流业务,也是公司四大业务板块中主要贡献盈利的业务。</p><p>最新的2021年电商零售平台市场份额数据显示,目前市场占比前五名的分别为淘宝51%、京东20%、拼多多15%、抖音电商5%、快手电商4%,剩下不到5%的市场份额则由其他平台瓜分。<b>阿里份额连降5年,距离巅峰时期75%的市场份额跌幅超20%,</b>但不可否认,阿里依然占着半壁江山的市场,基本盘仍很稳定的。</p><p><span style=\"color:rgba(224,31,16,1);\">虽然阿里的基本盘未变且优势明显,但不少专业投资人表示,短期市场对其估值不会太慷慨。</span>有不少投资人表示,阿里也应该为第二条增长曲线做考虑。但互联网从成长到成熟的大浪淘沙,证伪了很多只烧钱不赚钱的市场模式。在不少投资人看来,这一轮洗牌跟2002年、2003年那一拨差不多,真正有护城河且能够促使整体的业态效率提升的公司,就能做大做强,像亚马逊、微软都能活下来,而且活得都很不错。</p><p><b>与上述投资人形成鲜明对比的是,国际投行以及资管巨头近期纷纷高调看多阿里。</b></p><p>经历史诗级抛售潮后,外资机构正在重新审视中国互联网科技企业的投资价值。5月16日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>突然对中国互联网科技股“全面看多”,集体上调了中国互联网科技股的评级、目标价。其指出,正在重新审视短期和长期基本面前景,中国互联网行业正在摆脱各种不确定性,未来头部公司的股价或将超预期上涨。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76f2288c46e60a481dc5e28ad988fadb\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>资金的“态度”,永远是最真实的!华尔街“顶流”机构已经掏出真金白银抄底阿里。</b></p><p>近日,全球最大对冲基金桥水基金向美国证交会(SEC)提交了一季度13F美股持仓报告。报告显示,互联网中概股以及新兴市场标的成为加仓重点。具体来看,在一季度,桥水基金买入321万股阿里巴巴,增持幅度达75%,截至报告期末持仓市值达8.14亿美元。阿里巴巴成为桥水基金的美股持仓第六大重仓股。</p><p>不只是桥水,抄底的还有富达。富达旗下价值干将宁静管理的富达中国焦点基金“Fidelity Funds - China Focus Fund” ,3月对阿里巴巴进行了大手笔增持,对阿里巴巴ADR增持幅度32.29%,对阿里巴巴港股增持幅度高达82.86%。此前,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。不过,宁静也谈到,买入未必是看到股价见底,有可能股价还会跌一阵子。这是痛苦的地方。</p><p><b>阿里的最新财报,“不太可能”出现意外</b></p><p><b>美国银行</b>分析师Eddie Leung发布研报认为,尽管中国在上半年因疫情实施了封锁措施,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>在5月26日公布业绩时“不太可能”出现意外,并重申该股“买入”评级,目标价为175美元。</p><p>该分析师指出,得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。</p><p>另外,由于封锁措施影响,Leung还将阿里巴巴2023财年的营收和利润预期分别下调了3%和4%,但保持了对2024财年的预期不变。“市场应该已经充分消化了封锁措施所带来的影响,并在股价上有所反映,”Leung表示,“尽管部分地区实施了限制措施,但其他一线城市的电商配送受到的影响有限。”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\"><b>瑞银</b></a>发表报告表示,基於新冠疫情、监管及宏观经济所来带来挑战,决定下调对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)及2023财年预测,但考虑到集团聚焦提升低线城市、社区团购等业务效率,仍然预期今年成本减少。随着内地消费今年稍後时间复苏,料阿里收入及盈利增长会加速。考虑到阿里目前估值仅预测今明两年市盈率各10倍及9倍,按其2023财年至2025财年EBIT增长达13%计,认为其风险与回报吸引。</p><p>该行重申对阿里巴巴「买入」投资评级,将目标价由150美元降至140美元,相当於预测2023财年及2024财年预测市盈率各13倍及12倍,亦相当於对阿里巴巴 的目标价136港元(此前予其146港元)。瑞银下调阿里巴巴2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)收入预测1.9%至2,002亿人民币(相当於按年升6.8%),降阿里巴巴2023财年收入预测3.5%至9,444亿人民币(相当於按年升11.2%),并下调对阿里2022财年第四财季经调整EBITA预测15.3%,并降其2023财年经调整EBITA预测13.4%。</p><p><b>风险是涨出来,机会是跌出来</b></p><p>其实,复盘中国互联网科技股的这一轮大跌,导火索是国内对互联网反垄断监管政策,叠加科技股的估值泡沫,而2022年以来,美联储加息、俄乌局势、美国监管机构对中国在美上市公司的摘牌警告等一系列利空因素叠加,进而加速了中国互联网科技股的抛售潮。</p><p>站在当前时点,中国互联网科技股面临的政策风险已经大幅释放。首先是,国务院金融稳定发展委员会定调:关于平台经济治理,有关部门要按照市场化、法治化、国际化的方针完善既定方案,坚持稳中求进,通过规范、透明、可预期的监管,稳妥推进并尽快完成大型平台公司整改工作,红灯、绿灯都要设置好,促进平台经济平稳健康发展,提高国际竞争力。</p><p>对于美国PCAOB审计底稿的谈判一直在持续,国务院金融委也指出,目前中美双方监管机构保持了良好沟通,已取得积极进展,正在致力于形成具体合作方案,中国政府继续支持各类企业到境外上市。</p><p>很显然,目前监管层面已经出现了积极信号,监管最严厉的时点大概率已经过去。</p><p>回到估值层面,上述中提到,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f49a2dace477b49b0fe160ffed747784\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>客观来看,这一轮监管风暴过后,中国新经济的发展环境将进入良性增长,而中国新经济巨头在适应监管后,经营业绩也大概率将会重回增长。以美国的科技企业为例,美国的监管政策一直都非常严苛,在适应监管节奏之后,美股的科技互联网巨头的经营业绩,大部分都重新回归正增长。</p><p>综上所述,当前时点,大概率是投资中国科技互联网行业最好的时点,可以用超低的价格,获得一大批中国最具竞争力的核心资产。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 阿里“稳了”?资金的“态度”永远是最真实的!</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 阿里“稳了”?资金的“态度”永远是最真实的!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-19 18:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>阿里巴巴将2022年5月26日美股盘前公布截至2022年3月31日的2022财年第四季度及全年财报。(注:阿里巴巴财年与自然年不同步,从每年的4月1日开始,至第二年的3月31日结束)美国银行预测:得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。</blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcf0217d1952bf8213351c45058c163\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"1430\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>阿里还未公布财报,投资者就开始为其“定调”,认为财报不会太好看。因为,市场对阿里的核心业务电商基本盘的优势却存在分歧。</p><p>在阿里的收入结构中,核心商业(包括淘宝、天猫、1688、Lazada平台等平台电商业务,也包括盒马鲜生、银泰百货等新零售业务,以及菜鸟网络、饿了么、口碑等服务基础设施。)占比88%,是公司最主要的现金流业务,也是公司四大业务板块中主要贡献盈利的业务。</p><p>最新的2021年电商零售平台市场份额数据显示,目前市场占比前五名的分别为淘宝51%、京东20%、拼多多15%、抖音电商5%、快手电商4%,剩下不到5%的市场份额则由其他平台瓜分。<b>阿里份额连降5年,距离巅峰时期75%的市场份额跌幅超20%,</b>但不可否认,阿里依然占着半壁江山的市场,基本盘仍很稳定的。</p><p><span style=\"color:rgba(224,31,16,1);\">虽然阿里的基本盘未变且优势明显,但不少专业投资人表示,短期市场对其估值不会太慷慨。</span>有不少投资人表示,阿里也应该为第二条增长曲线做考虑。但互联网从成长到成熟的大浪淘沙,证伪了很多只烧钱不赚钱的市场模式。在不少投资人看来,这一轮洗牌跟2002年、2003年那一拨差不多,真正有护城河且能够促使整体的业态效率提升的公司,就能做大做强,像亚马逊、微软都能活下来,而且活得都很不错。</p><p><b>与上述投资人形成鲜明对比的是,国际投行以及资管巨头近期纷纷高调看多阿里。</b></p><p>经历史诗级抛售潮后,外资机构正在重新审视中国互联网科技企业的投资价值。5月16日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>突然对中国互联网科技股“全面看多”,集体上调了中国互联网科技股的评级、目标价。其指出,正在重新审视短期和长期基本面前景,中国互联网行业正在摆脱各种不确定性,未来头部公司的股价或将超预期上涨。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76f2288c46e60a481dc5e28ad988fadb\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>资金的“态度”,永远是最真实的!华尔街“顶流”机构已经掏出真金白银抄底阿里。</b></p><p>近日,全球最大对冲基金桥水基金向美国证交会(SEC)提交了一季度13F美股持仓报告。报告显示,互联网中概股以及新兴市场标的成为加仓重点。具体来看,在一季度,桥水基金买入321万股阿里巴巴,增持幅度达75%,截至报告期末持仓市值达8.14亿美元。阿里巴巴成为桥水基金的美股持仓第六大重仓股。</p><p>不只是桥水,抄底的还有富达。富达旗下价值干将宁静管理的富达中国焦点基金“Fidelity Funds - China Focus Fund” ,3月对阿里巴巴进行了大手笔增持,对阿里巴巴ADR增持幅度32.29%,对阿里巴巴港股增持幅度高达82.86%。此前,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。不过,宁静也谈到,买入未必是看到股价见底,有可能股价还会跌一阵子。这是痛苦的地方。</p><p><b>阿里的最新财报,“不太可能”出现意外</b></p><p><b>美国银行</b>分析师Eddie Leung发布研报认为,尽管中国在上半年因疫情实施了封锁措施,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>在5月26日公布业绩时“不太可能”出现意外,并重申该股“买入”评级,目标价为175美元。</p><p>该分析师指出,得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。</p><p>另外,由于封锁措施影响,Leung还将阿里巴巴2023财年的营收和利润预期分别下调了3%和4%,但保持了对2024财年的预期不变。“市场应该已经充分消化了封锁措施所带来的影响,并在股价上有所反映,”Leung表示,“尽管部分地区实施了限制措施,但其他一线城市的电商配送受到的影响有限。”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\"><b>瑞银</b></a>发表报告表示,基於新冠疫情、监管及宏观经济所来带来挑战,决定下调对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)及2023财年预测,但考虑到集团聚焦提升低线城市、社区团购等业务效率,仍然预期今年成本减少。随着内地消费今年稍後时间复苏,料阿里收入及盈利增长会加速。考虑到阿里目前估值仅预测今明两年市盈率各10倍及9倍,按其2023财年至2025财年EBIT增长达13%计,认为其风险与回报吸引。</p><p>该行重申对阿里巴巴「买入」投资评级,将目标价由150美元降至140美元,相当於预测2023财年及2024财年预测市盈率各13倍及12倍,亦相当於对阿里巴巴 的目标价136港元(此前予其146港元)。瑞银下调阿里巴巴2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)收入预测1.9%至2,002亿人民币(相当於按年升6.8%),降阿里巴巴2023财年收入预测3.5%至9,444亿人民币(相当於按年升11.2%),并下调对阿里2022财年第四财季经调整EBITA预测15.3%,并降其2023财年经调整EBITA预测13.4%。</p><p><b>风险是涨出来,机会是跌出来</b></p><p>其实,复盘中国互联网科技股的这一轮大跌,导火索是国内对互联网反垄断监管政策,叠加科技股的估值泡沫,而2022年以来,美联储加息、俄乌局势、美国监管机构对中国在美上市公司的摘牌警告等一系列利空因素叠加,进而加速了中国互联网科技股的抛售潮。</p><p>站在当前时点,中国互联网科技股面临的政策风险已经大幅释放。首先是,国务院金融稳定发展委员会定调:关于平台经济治理,有关部门要按照市场化、法治化、国际化的方针完善既定方案,坚持稳中求进,通过规范、透明、可预期的监管,稳妥推进并尽快完成大型平台公司整改工作,红灯、绿灯都要设置好,促进平台经济平稳健康发展,提高国际竞争力。</p><p>对于美国PCAOB审计底稿的谈判一直在持续,国务院金融委也指出,目前中美双方监管机构保持了良好沟通,已取得积极进展,正在致力于形成具体合作方案,中国政府继续支持各类企业到境外上市。</p><p>很显然,目前监管层面已经出现了积极信号,监管最严厉的时点大概率已经过去。</p><p>回到估值层面,上述中提到,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f49a2dace477b49b0fe160ffed747784\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>客观来看,这一轮监管风暴过后,中国新经济的发展环境将进入良性增长,而中国新经济巨头在适应监管后,经营业绩也大概率将会重回增长。以美国的科技企业为例,美国的监管政策一直都非常严苛,在适应监管节奏之后,美股的科技互联网巨头的经营业绩,大部分都重新回归正增长。</p><p>综上所述,当前时点,大概率是投资中国科技互联网行业最好的时点,可以用超低的价格,获得一大批中国最具竞争力的核心资产。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144720351","content_text":"阿里巴巴将2022年5月26日美股盘前公布截至2022年3月31日的2022财年第四季度及全年财报。(注:阿里巴巴财年与自然年不同步,从每年的4月1日开始,至第二年的3月31日结束)美国银行预测:得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。阿里还未公布财报,投资者就开始为其“定调”,认为财报不会太好看。因为,市场对阿里的核心业务电商基本盘的优势却存在分歧。在阿里的收入结构中,核心商业(包括淘宝、天猫、1688、Lazada平台等平台电商业务,也包括盒马鲜生、银泰百货等新零售业务,以及菜鸟网络、饿了么、口碑等服务基础设施。)占比88%,是公司最主要的现金流业务,也是公司四大业务板块中主要贡献盈利的业务。最新的2021年电商零售平台市场份额数据显示,目前市场占比前五名的分别为淘宝51%、京东20%、拼多多15%、抖音电商5%、快手电商4%,剩下不到5%的市场份额则由其他平台瓜分。阿里份额连降5年,距离巅峰时期75%的市场份额跌幅超20%,但不可否认,阿里依然占着半壁江山的市场,基本盘仍很稳定的。虽然阿里的基本盘未变且优势明显,但不少专业投资人表示,短期市场对其估值不会太慷慨。有不少投资人表示,阿里也应该为第二条增长曲线做考虑。但互联网从成长到成熟的大浪淘沙,证伪了很多只烧钱不赚钱的市场模式。在不少投资人看来,这一轮洗牌跟2002年、2003年那一拨差不多,真正有护城河且能够促使整体的业态效率提升的公司,就能做大做强,像亚马逊、微软都能活下来,而且活得都很不错。与上述投资人形成鲜明对比的是,国际投行以及资管巨头近期纷纷高调看多阿里。经历史诗级抛售潮后,外资机构正在重新审视中国互联网科技企业的投资价值。5月16日,摩根大通突然对中国互联网科技股“全面看多”,集体上调了中国互联网科技股的评级、目标价。其指出,正在重新审视短期和长期基本面前景,中国互联网行业正在摆脱各种不确定性,未来头部公司的股价或将超预期上涨。资金的“态度”,永远是最真实的!华尔街“顶流”机构已经掏出真金白银抄底阿里。近日,全球最大对冲基金桥水基金向美国证交会(SEC)提交了一季度13F美股持仓报告。报告显示,互联网中概股以及新兴市场标的成为加仓重点。具体来看,在一季度,桥水基金买入321万股阿里巴巴,增持幅度达75%,截至报告期末持仓市值达8.14亿美元。阿里巴巴成为桥水基金的美股持仓第六大重仓股。不只是桥水,抄底的还有富达。富达旗下价值干将宁静管理的富达中国焦点基金“Fidelity Funds - China Focus Fund” ,3月对阿里巴巴进行了大手笔增持,对阿里巴巴ADR增持幅度32.29%,对阿里巴巴港股增持幅度高达82.86%。此前,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。不过,宁静也谈到,买入未必是看到股价见底,有可能股价还会跌一阵子。这是痛苦的地方。阿里的最新财报,“不太可能”出现意外美国银行分析师Eddie Leung发布研报认为,尽管中国在上半年因疫情实施了封锁措施,阿里巴巴在5月26日公布业绩时“不太可能”出现意外,并重申该股“买入”评级,目标价为175美元。该分析师指出,得益于1月和2月的强劲表现,阿里巴巴在中国的核心电商业务营收预计同比增长9.8%。本地服务和云业务可能会出现“适度放缓”,预计同比增速分别降至39%和17%。另外,由于封锁措施影响,Leung还将阿里巴巴2023财年的营收和利润预期分别下调了3%和4%,但保持了对2024财年的预期不变。“市场应该已经充分消化了封锁措施所带来的影响,并在股价上有所反映,”Leung表示,“尽管部分地区实施了限制措施,但其他一线城市的电商配送受到的影响有限。”瑞银发表报告表示,基於新冠疫情、监管及宏观经济所来带来挑战,决定下调对阿里巴巴2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)及2023财年预测,但考虑到集团聚焦提升低线城市、社区团购等业务效率,仍然预期今年成本减少。随着内地消费今年稍後时间复苏,料阿里收入及盈利增长会加速。考虑到阿里目前估值仅预测今明两年市盈率各10倍及9倍,按其2023财年至2025财年EBIT增长达13%计,认为其风险与回报吸引。该行重申对阿里巴巴「买入」投资评级,将目标价由150美元降至140美元,相当於预测2023财年及2024财年预测市盈率各13倍及12倍,亦相当於对阿里巴巴 的目标价136港元(此前予其146港元)。瑞银下调阿里巴巴2022财年第四财季(即截至2022年3月底止财季)收入预测1.9%至2,002亿人民币(相当於按年升6.8%),降阿里巴巴2023财年收入预测3.5%至9,444亿人民币(相当於按年升11.2%),并下调对阿里2022财年第四财季经调整EBITA预测15.3%,并降其2023财年经调整EBITA预测13.4%。风险是涨出来,机会是跌出来其实,复盘中国互联网科技股的这一轮大跌,导火索是国内对互联网反垄断监管政策,叠加科技股的估值泡沫,而2022年以来,美联储加息、俄乌局势、美国监管机构对中国在美上市公司的摘牌警告等一系列利空因素叠加,进而加速了中国互联网科技股的抛售潮。站在当前时点,中国互联网科技股面临的政策风险已经大幅释放。首先是,国务院金融稳定发展委员会定调:关于平台经济治理,有关部门要按照市场化、法治化、国际化的方针完善既定方案,坚持稳中求进,通过规范、透明、可预期的监管,稳妥推进并尽快完成大型平台公司整改工作,红灯、绿灯都要设置好,促进平台经济平稳健康发展,提高国际竞争力。对于美国PCAOB审计底稿的谈判一直在持续,国务院金融委也指出,目前中美双方监管机构保持了良好沟通,已取得积极进展,正在致力于形成具体合作方案,中国政府继续支持各类企业到境外上市。很显然,目前监管层面已经出现了积极信号,监管最严厉的时点大概率已经过去。回到估值层面,上述中提到,宁静接受本报采访,曾经谈到过,很多互联网公司股票,现在已经变成了价值股了。她是对估值的安全边际有很高要求的基金经理。这些股票目前已经成了“她的菜了”。客观来看,这一轮监管风暴过后,中国新经济的发展环境将进入良性增长,而中国新经济巨头在适应监管后,经营业绩也大概率将会重回增长。以美国的科技企业为例,美国的监管政策一直都非常严苛,在适应监管节奏之后,美股的科技互联网巨头的经营业绩,大部分都重新回归正增长。综上所述,当前时点,大概率是投资中国科技互联网行业最好的时点,可以用超低的价格,获得一大批中国最具竞争力的核心资产。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614195724,"gmtCreate":1653424141168,"gmtModify":1653424143876,"author":{"id":"3582756543893392","authorId":"3582756543893392","name":"DaiJing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e7543d02beedb18f03f711a1c25e32","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582756543893392","idStr":"3582756543893392"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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