haihaidong的个人主页 - 老虎社区

haihaidong

haihaidong

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：河北

412关注

5粉丝

47主题

0勋章

2022-12-20

回顾2022年的投资记录，感慨万千，多少不眠之夜，多少目瞪口呆，多少心神恍惚，多少心酸悔恨，多少失望又多少希望，多少坎坷又多少期盼，黑暗交替光明，失落伴随信心，相知在今朝，相信在明天，相守在今虎，相爱在明兔，心在2022，爱在2023！

2023-11-24

红包拿来，天天开心！

2023-02-09

分析全面中肯[爱你] [强] [比心] [爱心] [看涨] [梭哈]

做多A股，迷雾重重

2022-12-22

一头雾水

Tesla: Elon Musk, Bring The Pain

2021-09-04

小米不抢怎能无敌天下！一定要加强的加枪￥

小米公关总经理回应雷军“减持3亿股”：系可统计份额降低

2021-06-23

每日优鲜挺方便快捷，年轻人很青睐。服务大众，不负众望！

2021-06-15

需要的就能找到，入手没商量好💪👍📢

2021-06-13

二手可能很称心呵呵😄一定要买

06-19

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

05-11

基因武器[喷血] [生病] [梭哈] [默哀]

诺瓦瓦克斯医药与赛诺菲就新冠疫苗达成数十亿美元合作

2023-11-24

感恩的心，感谢有你，感恩每一个陪伴的你我他！

2023-03-30

华为一冒头，立刻就要按回去，真真切切实实在在的全维度打压。呵呵！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-04

虚拟现实元宇宙全真教教主

马化腾说的“全真互联网”，到底是什么？

2021-06-23

大家有关注这只股票的吗？参谋参谋，分析分析怎么样[握手] [爱心] [美金]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3581646110825350","uuid":"3581646110825350","gmtCreate":1618753271999,"gmtModify":1624440921638,"name":"haihaidong","pinyin":"haihaidong","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":5,"headSize":412,"tweetSize":14,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":47,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":274,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.14","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.82%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.06","exceedPercentage":"80.32%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"河北","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":33,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":318271204765888,"gmtCreate":1718741473720,"gmtModify":1718746520908,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"title":"竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王","htmlText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8yaDaS\">竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8yaDaS\">竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情：竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f22c491ee8ae08f0d36ded0795f1fe33"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318271204765888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304531226423488,"gmtCreate":1715383086154,"gmtModify":1715383088186,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"基因武器[喷血]&nbsp;[生病]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;[默哀]&nbsp;","listText":"基因武器[喷血]&nbsp;[生病]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;[默哀]&nbsp;","text":"基因武器[喷血] [生病] [梭哈] [默哀]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304531226423488","repostId":"2434188644","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":244772219683040,"gmtCreate":1700773389485,"gmtModify":1700773391846,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"红包拿来，天天开心！","listText":"红包拿来，天天开心！","text":"红包拿来，天天开心！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642171a1be7d77665103e83197be9c9f","width":"1080","height":"2160"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/244772219683040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":244767905665208,"gmtCreate":1700772335310,"gmtModify":1700772338157,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"感恩的心，感谢有你，感恩每一个陪伴的你我他！","listText":"感恩的心，感谢有你，感恩每一个陪伴的你我他！","text":"感恩的心，感谢有你，感恩每一个陪伴的你我他！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/244767905665208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659558486,"gmtCreate":1680158863445,"gmtModify":1680158865145,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华为一冒头，立刻就要按回去，真真切切实实在在的全维度打压。呵呵！","listText":"华为一冒头，立刻就要按回去，真真切切实实在在的全维度打压。呵呵！","text":"华为一冒头，立刻就要按回去，真真切切实实在在的全维度打压。呵呵！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659558486","repostId":"2323775797","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622720398,"gmtCreate":1675897107014,"gmtModify":1675897109223,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分析全面中肯[爱你]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;","listText":"分析全面中肯[爱你]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;","text":"分析全面中肯[爱你] [强] [比心] [爱心] [看涨] [梭哈]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622720398","repostId":"1105557454","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621039031,"gmtCreate":1671724108723,"gmtModify":1671724110433,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一头雾水","listText":"一头雾水","text":"一头雾水","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621039031","repostId":"2293557321","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623247352,"gmtCreate":1671477642177,"gmtModify":1671477644669,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回顾2022年的投资记录，感慨万千，多少不眠之夜，多少目瞪口呆，多少心神恍惚，多少心酸悔恨，多少失望又多少希望，多少坎坷又多少期盼，黑暗交替光明，失落伴随信心，相知在今朝，相信在明天，相守在今虎，相爱在明兔，心在2022，爱在2023！","listText":"回顾2022年的投资记录，感慨万千，多少不眠之夜，多少目瞪口呆，多少心神恍惚，多少心酸悔恨，多少失望又多少希望，多少坎坷又多少期盼，黑暗交替光明，失落伴随信心，相知在今朝，相信在明天，相守在今虎，相爱在明兔，心在2022，爱在2023！","text":"回顾2022年的投资记录，感慨万千，多少不眠之夜，多少目瞪口呆，多少心神恍惚，多少心酸悔恨，多少失望又多少希望，多少坎坷又多少期盼，黑暗交替光明，失落伴随信心，相知在今朝，相信在明天，相守在今虎，相爱在明兔，心在2022，爱在2023！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623247352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815568184,"gmtCreate":1630698210748,"gmtModify":1630698210748,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小米不抢怎能无敌天下！一定要加强的加枪￥","listText":"小米不抢怎能无敌天下！一定要加强的加枪￥","text":"小米不抢怎能无敌天下！一定要加强的加枪￥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815568184","repostId":"1189577781","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815561850,"gmtCreate":1630697863070,"gmtModify":1630697863070,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"虚拟现实&nbsp; 元宇宙&nbsp; 全真教教主","listText":"虚拟现实&nbsp; 元宇宙&nbsp; 全真教教主","text":"虚拟现实 元宇宙 全真教教主","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815561850","repostId":"2164187883","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121166559,"gmtCreate":1624456909771,"gmtModify":1624456909771,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大家有关注这只股票的吗？参谋参谋，分析分析怎么样[握手]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","listText":"大家有关注这只股票的吗？参谋参谋，分析分析怎么样[握手]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","text":"大家有关注这只股票的吗？参谋参谋，分析分析怎么样[握手] [爱心] [美金]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0ca4cdaf35e1bb2ca945e8dff33f1d","width":"720","height":"2059"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b187f023252c1570b227866e657ac8d6","width":"720","height":"1520"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf86afd209ae3a87df972d396155ef0d","width":"1520","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121166559","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123758223,"gmtCreate":1624440717962,"gmtModify":1624440717962,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"每日优鲜挺方便快捷，年轻人很青睐。服务大众，不负众望！","listText":"每日优鲜挺方便快捷，年轻人很青睐。服务大众，不负众望！","text":"每日优鲜挺方便快捷，年轻人很青睐。服务大众，不负众望！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ea72e04b297a7548cb87eedb555322","width":"720","height":"1520"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123758223","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184838258,"gmtCreate":1623701592474,"gmtModify":1623701592474,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"需要的就能找到，入手没商量好💪👍📢","listText":"需要的就能找到，入手没商量好💪👍📢","text":"需要的就能找到，入手没商量好💪👍📢","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da4ae6218d74982647dc559bd083dae","width":"720","height":"1520"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184838258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":182249700,"gmtCreate":1623582170300,"gmtModify":1623582170300,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"二手可能很称心呵呵😄一定要买","listText":"二手可能很称心呵呵😄一定要买","text":"二手可能很称心呵呵😄一定要买","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/323267d45ef09b96a92916438c50c93f","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182249700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":623247352,"gmtCreate":1671477642177,"gmtModify":1671477644669,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回顾2022年的投资记录，感慨万千，多少不眠之夜，多少目瞪口呆，多少心神恍惚，多少心酸悔恨，多少失望又多少希望，多少坎坷又多少期盼，黑暗交替光明，失落伴随信心，相知在今朝，相信在明天，相守在今虎，相爱在明兔，心在2022，爱在2023！","listText":"回顾2022年的投资记录，感慨万千，多少不眠之夜，多少目瞪口呆，多少心神恍惚，多少心酸悔恨，多少失望又多少希望，多少坎坷又多少期盼，黑暗交替光明，失落伴随信心，相知在今朝，相信在明天，相守在今虎，相爱在明兔，心在2022，爱在2023！","text":"回顾2022年的投资记录，感慨万千，多少不眠之夜，多少目瞪口呆，多少心神恍惚，多少心酸悔恨，多少失望又多少希望，多少坎坷又多少期盼，黑暗交替光明，失落伴随信心，相知在今朝，相信在明天，相守在今虎，相爱在明兔，心在2022，爱在2023！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623247352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":244772219683040,"gmtCreate":1700773389485,"gmtModify":1700773391846,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"红包拿来，天天开心！","listText":"红包拿来，天天开心！","text":"红包拿来，天天开心！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642171a1be7d77665103e83197be9c9f","width":"1080","height":"2160"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/244772219683040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622720398,"gmtCreate":1675897107014,"gmtModify":1675897109223,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分析全面中肯[爱你]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;","listText":"分析全面中肯[爱你]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[比心]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;","text":"分析全面中肯[爱你] [强] [比心] [爱心] [看涨] [梭哈]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622720398","repostId":"1105557454","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105557454","pubTimestamp":1675850453,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105557454?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-08 18:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"做多A股，迷雾重重","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105557454","media":"读数一帜","summary":"对全球经济衰退的担忧，以及对中国经济走向复苏的期待，叠加A股和港股被低估的价格，成为海外资金持续流入中国股市的主要驱动力兔年春节前后，外资大量流向A股。截至2023年1月31日，北向资金1月的净买入金","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>对全球经济衰退的担忧，以及对中国经济走向复苏的期待，叠加A股和港股被低估的价格，成为海外资金持续流入中国股市的主要驱动力</blockquote><p>兔年春节前后，外资大量流向A股。</p><p>截至2023年1月31日，北向资金1月的净买入金额达到1413亿元，这已经远远超过了2022年全年的897亿元。而在此前的港股市场，外资同样在悄悄买入。</p><p>一位外资机构人士对《财经》记者称，<b>“从有陆港通以来，现在是中国股市相对优势最大的时候。”</b></p><p>在外资看来，中国资产是基于全球视野下的资产配置高性价比选择。对包括美国在内的全球经济衰退的担忧，以及对中国经济走向复苏的期待，叠加A股和港股当前的价格，一推一拉之间，成为此轮海外资金流入中国市场的主要驱动力。</p><p>“随着中国经济在全球的影响力越来越大，预计外资的配置需求还会增加。<b>中国经济周期的节奏跟西方主流国家不一致，外资从分散风险、中长期投资的角度都会有需求。</b>”上海交大上海高级金融学院教授陈欣对《财经》记者表示。</p><p>特许另类投资分析师协会（CAIA）总裁William Kelly接受《财经》记者采访时表示，海外投资中国，更多是看中中国市场年轻消费群体的崛起。“美国二次大战之后的婴儿潮，后来成了美国国内重要的消费主力。我们相信中国的消费群体力量也是中长期的。”</p><p>已经流入的外资用行动证明了对中国经济复苏的看好，而存量内资则是“乐观，但没有那么乐观”，无论从A股两市成交量还是指数涨幅来看都没那么积极，A股反弹在春节开市第一个交易日的高开后停歇，北上资金也在连续17个交易日净买入后转向。</p><p>经济复苏并非一蹴而就，内外资机构也在挖掘不一样的投资机会。“无论是不是投资所谓的核心资产，都要取决于公司盈利能力的提升，我们还需要更多的数据来验证经济是否回到正常上升轨道。”东吴证券全球首席策略官陈李表示。</p><p><b>与此同时，资本市场改革迈出了重要一步，全面注册制正式开启。</b>2月1日，中国证监会就全面实行股票发行注册制主要制度规则向社会公开征求意见。历经四年多时间，中国资本市场从试点走向全面注册制。</p><p>证监会表示，试点注册制是符合中国国情的，是成功的，主要制度安排经受住了市场检验，给市场各方带来了实实在在的获得感，向全市场推广水到渠成。</p><p><b>一致预期下，风险和机遇同样值得重视。</b>机构人士认为，从宏观经济复苏的确定性，到海外通胀的持续性，以及地缘政治冲突，都需要进一步的跟踪和观察。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa57a47f41740baa49858e860ff1a604\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>外资回流中国</b></p><p>“今年以来，我们在股市上买不到美的，买不到东方雨虹，就连洽洽食品也买不到了。像在经济复苏这种比较火的赛道上，虽有公司不错，但也没有选到估值合适的标的。”罗斯柴尔德资产管理公司（Edmond De Rothschild Asset Management）新兴市场投资经理包夏东对《财经》记者感叹道，“不是想买的外资太多，就是股票估值被市场炒得太高了。”</p><p>春江水暖鸭先知。GROW思睿集团创始人兼首席投资官马晖洪与外资打交道20多年，从去年10月开始，他便频频感受到外资对中国市场迅速升温的热情。</p><p><b>春节前夕，在美国迈阿密的一场闭门论坛上，许多养老金机构投资者围着马晖洪打听中国市场的情况。</b>他们最关心的问题是：“听说中国放开疫情管控了，现在经济恢复得怎么样？”</p><p>“美国养老金机构今年的话题是：担心全球经济衰退。这时候他们对中国的表现是非常期待的。”在马晖洪看来，驱使外资买入中国资产的力量分为两部分：推力和拉力。</p><p><b>推力来自美国。</b>“他们看到美国高频经济数据越来越差，加息放缓、美元走弱，出于分散一部分美国经济衰退风险的考虑，他们需要向新兴市场分散仓位”。</p><p><b>拉力来自中国。</b>“中国的种种表现超出了他们的预期，包括防疫措施优化的动作提前，对房地产的政策扶持、拉动内需的相关政策等”。</p><p>马晖洪把近期的北上资金买入称为“回流”。“现在还没有回流到高峰时期，大钱还没有进来。”他向《财经》记者打了个比方，“外资买方里，十个人有两个是非常看好中国，已经加仓了。三个还在观望，他们要看到一季度的数据，看到企业盈利了、消费稳定了才会进来。另外五个，则要看一年以上。”</p><p>实际上在陆港通业务开展后，北向资金净买入金额最高的数据出现在2021年，当年全年净买入4322亿元。若以该金额作为对比，2023年1月的数据约占2021年全年数据的33%，接近于三分之一。</p><p><b>2023年元旦后，境外资金明显加大了对中国资产的配置力度。</b>截至1月31日，北向资金在1月的净买入金额达到1413亿元，这个数字已经远远超过了2022年全年的897亿元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31ebb18ba7c5d331801d0970f3ceef43\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>北向资金的操作并不是孤立的。早在2022年四季度，内地资金就以陆港通中的港股通为渠道，南下中国香港抄底。2022年10月，南向资金净买入737.56亿港元；11月南向资金净买入501.59亿港元；12月南向资金净买入94.21亿港元。</p><p><b>值得一提的是，南下资金抄底之际，外资也在同时买入港股。对外资来说，港股类似于中国资产的“桥头堡”角色。</b></p><p>思睿集团当时的数据显示，尽管港股大幅回调，但香港最大的港股ETF盈富基金（2800.HK）的周度资金流入达到历史最高水平，同时这只ETF的累计资金流入亦处于历史最高。</p><p>作为标杆性产品，透过盈富基金的数据变化可看到外资对港股的态度。“港股是外资观察中国资产的领先指标。短线买港股，中线看A股。因为港股估值比较低，弹性更大。”马晖洪解释道。</p><p>港股之后便是A股。就在南下抄底的内资在香港市场赚得盆满钵满之际，外资的目光已经瞄向A股市场。</p><p>北向资金在2022年11月便开始净买入A股，一开始动作并不大。但是2023年元旦过后，北向资金再也没有犹豫，他们在一个月的时间内就净买入了1412.9亿元的A股。不过，同期A股的回报不如港股，上证指数在2023年1月仅上涨了6.33%，恒生指数涨幅超10%。</p><p><b>涨幅不同步，一定程度上与内资的态度有关。</b>北向资金“买买买”的时候，A股成交量并未有效放大。仅在春节长假恢复交易的首日成交额高于1万亿元，其余时间成交量一直保持在7000亿元左右。</p><p>至此，A股市场中的北向资金主导痕迹明显，不少投资人士开始揣摩外资持股的风格，并向其倾斜。</p><p>2022年12月疫情措施优化后，餐饮、旅游、食品、白酒等消费股备受市场热捧，人们认为这些行业困境反转，业绩存在改善空间。其中白酒是投资者们认为北向有可能抄底的方向，该行业成交量能容纳汹涌的北向资金，同时也是蓝筹股中涨幅较大的行业。Wind（万得）白酒指数去年12月涨幅为11.60%，今年1月涨幅为5.27%。</p><p><b>外资真的买入了这些股票吗？</b></p><p>一方面，从个股的角度来看，今年以来，北向资金净买入前十的个股是：宁德时代、中国平安、贵州茅台、隆基绿能、招商银行、五粮液、比亚迪、中国中免、京东方A、紫金矿业。<b>大量北上资金沉淀在消费、新能源、金融的龙头公司中。</b></p><p>另一方面，《财经》记者通过外资持股市值与持股数量的环比变化发现，<b>近期外资增持力度最大的并不在消费等行业，而是集中在有色金属、电子、非银金融行业中。</b></p><p>Wind数据显示，申万一级行业中，2023年1月北向资金持股市值环比增长额居前的行业是电力设备、食品饮料、非银金融、有色金属。</p><p>考虑到行业原先持股市值的基数和股价涨幅，持股市值并不能完整描述外资抄底的方向。例如北上资金重仓的食品饮料板块，虽然1月持股市值增加了371亿元，但原先基数就有3213亿元，实际上持股市值环比增长率仅有12%，这与白酒等行业指数的涨幅类似。</p><p>外资持股数量方面，持股增加10亿股以上的行业只剩下有色金属、电子、银行、非银金融四个行业。</p><p>综合持股市值与持股数量，外资在今年1月创造的1413亿元净买入，大部分都买在了有色金属、电子、非银金融身上。Wind有色金属指数1月涨幅为18%、电子指数涨幅11%、非银金融指数涨幅11%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54235a6c81afd15d48e3e2c57fc4f408\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"996\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>踏空的内资是纠结的，这一点从南向资金的动向可见一斑。</b>南向资金去年12月已经减少了净买入港股的势头，但是并未出现净卖出，也就是内资并没有卖出港股撤回境内。1月恰逢春节假期，南向资金的态度也并不明显。但是春节假期归来，南向资金开始明显净卖出港股，节后一周，其净卖出174.87亿港元。</p><p>2月1日，中国资本市场迎来了盼望已久的全面注册制改革——中国证监会就全面实行股票发行注册制主要制度规则向社会公开征求意见，一系列制度变革将对中国资本市场产生深远影响。与此同时，以南向资金为代表的内资开始行动了，A股市场连续两日成交额超万亿元</p><p><b>中国经济复苏进行时</b></p><p><b>外资的持续流入，表面上看是基于“全球资产配置性价比”的考虑，核心原因在于看中了中国资产的长期投资价值。</b></p><p>“我们对中国市场有着长远的信心，投资中国不是备选项，而是必选项。”瑞银中国区总裁及瑞银证券董事长钱于军在近日表示。</p><p>“我接触的全球机构投资者大多数都是看至少3年-5年周期的投资机会，当然他们也需要择时，选择合适的时机介入。”William Kelly告诉《财经》记者。</p><p>这一时机出现在防疫措施调整和房地产调控措施相继出台之后。“去年11月前后，海外投资者对于中国2023年的年度展望都相对谨慎，北上资金配置盘也出现了持续净流出。进入12月以后，防疫政策变化和房地产的帮扶措施，使得外资出现了比较明显的预期改善。”民生证券首席策略分析师牟一凌对《财经》记者表示。</p><p>“过去两年外资减持中国权益资产的背景包括中国宏观经济下行、中美关系恶化、全球流动性紧缩以及中概股退市等事件逐步爆发。这一次外资的买入将是大的方向和趋势，这背后是中国整体宏观经济的逐步修复和企稳回升。”嘉实基金吴越对《财经》记者表示。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40cd938c5776f5704c1a38903ed5e0c1\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>中国经济正在复苏。贝莱德智库首席中国经济学家宋宇认为，在发达国家可能步入衰退，中国外需面临下行压力的背景下，内需将成为拉动中国经济的主要力量。</p><p><b>春节消费一般被认为是观察中国经济的一扇重要窗口。</b>2023年春节消费远超出预期。携程发布的《2023年春节旅游总结报告》显示，今年春节期间旅游订单整体较去年同期增长4倍。在假期消费方面，国家税务总局增值税发票数据显示，今年春节假期，全国消费相关行业销售收入同比增长12.2%。</p><p><b>中国工业生产也正快速恢复。</b>1月31日，国家统计局数据显示，1月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比去年12月上升3.1%。非制造业商务活动指数为54.4%，环比上升12.8%。综合PMI产出指数为52.9%，较去年12月上升10.3%。</p><p><b>这些数据表明，中国的经济景气度水平明显回升。</b>“从宏微观数据来看，总体上春节消费恢复较好，较多领域基本恢复到了2019年的同期水平，且恢复的广度强于深度。”长江证券首席策略分析师包承超向《财经》记者表示。</p><p>“中国经济的复苏是全方位、多层次的，不是少数几个行业的好转。”畅力资产董事长兼首席投资官宝晓辉表示，一方面，防疫政策的调整直接带动了旅游、酒店等行业的活跃。另一方面，大量积极有效的货币政策和财政政策为经济长期发展提供了助力。</p><p><b>中国经济的复苏，既有内生动能，也有着政策的助力。实际上，稳增长政策一直在加码。</b></p><p>2022年底，中央经济工作会议提出，积极的财政政策要加力提效，稳健的货币政策要精准有力。在房地产领域，中国自去年开始就推出了超千条的房地产调控政策，“三箭齐发”全方位提振楼市。2023年，业界预计，房地产领域仍将有更为积极的刺激政策。</p><p><b>1月30日，全国商务工作会议提出六方面重点工作，其中第一点是把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置。此外，还提出要更大力度推动外贸稳规模、优结构；更大力度吸引和利用外资等。</b></p><p>平台经济政策也得到进一步改善。互联网等平台经济主体随着绿灯案例推行、游戏版号发放等多重利好，政策拐点已现。2023年，平台经济政策将更为积极。此外，民营企业等多个领域均有政策出台，对民营经济的支持力度将会进一步加大。</p><p>与此同时，企业的盈利也正在逐渐恢复。广发证券表示，A股多数板块在2023年盈利一致预期显著上修，包括消费、资源等行业。该预期是分析师基于行业前景的一致预期，是否兑现还要看上市公司后期业绩释放来确认。</p><p>国盛证券的研究报告认为，2023年行业预期实现较高业绩增长且环比改善的行业主要分布于大消费与高端制造。此外，低基数效应也会驱动一些行业业绩大幅提升。</p><p>正是基于对中国经济恢复的信心，不少国际投资机构上调中国2023年GDP（国内生产总值）预期。</p><p>花旗集团分析师认为，<b>中国经济将更快复苏，对今年中国经济增长达5.3%的预测还有上行空间。</b>摩根士丹利将中国GDP增幅预测上调0.3个百分点至5.7%。宋宇认为，2023年中国GDP增速有望达到6%。</p><p>国际货币基金组织（IMF）在1月31日发布的《世界经济展望报告》中指出，预估2023年全球经济增长为2.9%，中国经济增长为5.2%，高于2022年10月4.4%的预测。</p><p>“前几年受到疫情影响较大，很多行业受到了较为严厉的调控，经济基础受到一定程度的损害。今年整个宏观经济政策是放松的态势，包括全面注册制也是一种放松。”陈欣说，“政府减少干预将提升市场的经济运行效率，中国经济增长的趋势将得到较好的恢复，就是时间长短的问题。”</p><p><b>华泰证券认为，总体而言，2023年可能仍是宏观政策“修养生息”的一年，货币和财政刺激的适度、温和退出，或许不足以改变中国温和再通胀的进程。</b>贝莱德认为，中国经济恢复不会一蹴而就，其中的恢复路径、程度与速度或将受到财政政策的影响。</p><p>“从风险角度考量，宏观经济复苏的确定性还需要验证。如果在真实需求没有大幅恢复的时候，我们需要观察政策端，如财政补贴，是否有可能兜住经济下行的风险。此外，还需要警惕年内出现第二次、第三次疫情反复的可能性。”吴越对《财经》记者表示。</p><p><b>内外资博弈下的A股</b></p><p>同样是做多中国，北上资金的鲜明态度与内资的犹豫形成强烈反差。“外资逼空内资”“今年又是茅指数的行情”“内资还纠结小市值，格局小了”……一时间，市场议论声四起。</p><p>“造成外资和各类内资投资风格差异的原因主要在于，各类资金性质、考核机制、投资目标等存在差异，所以投资时会选择不同的投资策略。”招商证券首席策略分析师张夏对《财经》记者表示，“在A股市场上，外资占比有了比较明显的提升，其对A股市场的影响越来越显著，再加上内外资在思维模式、投资体系、投资节奏有差异，所以内外资的博弈在近几年有所加剧。<b>但无论怎样，宏观经济与政策、流动性环境、基本面、盈利、市场情绪等都是投资者在决策时需要综合考量的因素。”</b></p><p>“外资回流趋势可能贯穿全年，有望成为A股市场重要的增量资金来源。”汇丰晋信海外投资部总监程彧接受《财经》记者采访时表示，“外资偏好有核心竞争力且有长期稳定盈利能力的资产，看好中国核心资产的超额收益。但我们不应简单地将核心资产打上‘大市值’‘漂亮50’等标签，本质还是要回到考量企业的护城河及盈利能力核心指标上来。”</p><p>马晖洪看到仍有许多外资机构在观望。“有位大型养老金负责人跟我说，至少要涨40%才会考虑进来。养老金都是五年以上的长线投资，40%的涨幅对他们来说不算什么，但确定性很重要。他们担忧的是政策的不稳定性和不可预测性。之前政府对互联网平台、教育行业的整顿使得他们从中国市场撤离，也心有余悸。一些前两年进入中国市场的海外投资者在中国的损失不小，去年亏了30%，跑输A股也跑输美股。”</p><p>中融基金FOF基金经理周桓则认为，北上资金的快速流入可能也会慢慢回到正常状态。“后续行情能否持续，主要看北上资金能否持续。背后的影响因素包括美国经济与新兴经济之间的相对强弱、汇率变动趋势、配置资金的现状，三个因素的边际变化有两个在趋弱”。</p><p><b>陈李也表示，未来一段时间外资流入的速度或将放慢。</b>“一是美国市场慢慢出现了软着陆的预期，大幅衰退的预期在减弱；二是我们要清醒地看到，中国并不是海外资本在新兴市场的唯一选择，需要充分注意到其他新兴市场经济体在疫情之后的快速增长”。</p><p>“<b>其实国内的新增资金大头不在机构，而在储户。</b>”周桓坦言，“过去两年很多投资者没挣到钱，储蓄也很难迁移。银行什么时候开始发行爆款基金了，那总量资金可能就起来了。但现在公募基金销售非常难，所以总体来说还是一个存量博弈的状态。”</p><p>2020年1月至2022年11月，中国的居民部门积累了约10万亿元超额储蓄，其中2022年积累的超额储蓄为6.77万亿元。国联证券预计，居民减少房地产配置带来的超额储蓄有望为股市带来增量资金。</p><p>在内外资不同风格的资金博弈下，今年的A股风格将如何演绎？是否可能重新演绎盛极一时的“核心资产”风潮、还是由内资接力抱团景气赛道？</p><p>“外资流入的前20大股票几乎都是清一色的白马股，说明中国优质上市公司的股权正在被外资抢筹。”前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙认为，在经济复苏的情况之下，投资者会更多去关注上市公司业绩的回升，业绩优良的优质龙头股可能会重新受到资金的配置。</p><p>温州嘉越投资管理公司投资总监吴悦风认为，现在的行情类似于2019年-2021年。“茅指数是大主线，中间也有半导体信创。<b>相比以前，这一波会有更多的成长股表现，口味肯定还是外资看好的。目前只有外资的增量能看得比较清楚。也许后面量会变小，但起码比国内公募的募集情况一潭死水来得强。</b>哪天国内产品募集热度起来了，外资这点增量就不够看了，那时风格会换。”</p><p>张夏则表示，“往后看，随着北上资金可能放缓，而融资资金为代表的内资可能逐渐成为主力增量资金的情况下，市场更可能逐渐转向偏中小成长风格。”</p><p>在牟一凌看来，国内、海外两个钟摆过去一段时间都摆在了中间，非常有利于A股，我们不能说这个阶段结束了，但是从机理上看，它不能永远静止在这里。“我们判断未来大家说的‘吃饭行情’进入了‘上甜点’的阶段。类似于去年7月以后，大家会往反弹相关领域的中证1000去扩散一段时间。”</p><p>“大家玩的东西不太一样，不太会去相互接盘对方的高位资产。”一位券商首席经济学家告诉《财经》记者，“外资更喜欢大盘、消费等稳定一些的，内资整体会更偏向赛道。外资从全球配置的角度已经率先行动了，国内资金就比较纠结。”</p><p>“虽然最近北上资金量不少，但不可能成为2023年中国市场核心的定价力量。”创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春分析，北上资金更看重中国的低估值资产，而2023年是一个产业转型的年份。“我们叫‘价值搭台，成长唱戏’。中国的高质量发展是制造业、是实业，这是由中国自身的力量所决定的，这点毋庸置疑。”</p><p>“此前外资确实主导过A股市场的风格，但现在主导不了了。”华夏基金基金经理许利明也向《财经》记者表达了他的观点。</p><p>许利明认为，<b>此前A股资产在国际资本整体配置中占比很低，外资投资的主要目标是配置需求。在这个目标主导下，北上资金的投资风格中“大盘”“均衡”“低波动”等特色比较明显，对消费和金融行业表现出极高的偏好。</b>随着A股资产在国际资本整体中配置比例的提升，他们投资目标中配置需求可能会逐渐下降，交易需求会逐渐上升。从追求收益角度出发，未来北上资金的决策权重中，对成长因子的考虑有可能会提升。</p><p>“北上资金的示范效应有可能被夸大了。”许利明说，随着北上资金存量规模的扩大，增量资金与存量资金的对比关系发生了变化，他们的投资行为也可能因此发生变化。在这种情况下，简单复用前些年“跟着北上资金炒股票”的投资模式，有可能夸大北上资金的示范效应，从而带来风险。</p><p>“A股的投研肯定比外资更深入。共识是今年会比去年好，不过还是各看各的，闭眼买龙头的日子可能已经过去了。”周桓说，“外资扫龙头，但股价和基本面之间的估值修复基本已经完成了。后面再涨就需要基本面超预期了。A股的基金经理们投资成长股肯定不是这个思路，肯定要找逻辑顺畅、数据可验证、估值还不错的股票。”</p><p><b>转折之年的机会与风险</b></p><p>在2022年净值受挫的基金经理们，期待抓住转折与复苏之年的投资机会。</p><p>基于公募基金四季报，华创证券统计了不同流派的基金经理的仓位变化，得出的结论是：一致共识是加仓医药，新能源中光伏更受青睐，对地产和困境反转的消费链分歧较大，港股则成了提升仓位的首选。</p><p><b>在多变的市场环境中，有人保持着投资方向，有人在短短两个月里迅速调转了方向。</b></p><p>“港股市场于2022年10月见底之后，在三个月的时间内指数上涨已经超过了40%，个别公司上涨超过了100%，也自然会有部分投资人考虑锁定利润，腾挪轮动到涨幅较为落后的A股市场板块。”中欧基金港股基金经理罗佳明告诉《财经》记者，他认为这属于市场的正常调整。随后企业盈利跟随整体经济修复，以及美联储进一步确认加息周期的尾声之后，港股市场会回到本轮行情的主逻辑上来。</p><p>“我没想到港股的互联网公司股票涨幅如此迅猛。”去年四季度，招商基金朱红裕凭借对消费板块和港股的提前布局，组合业绩十分亮眼，规模增长很快。收到申购资金后，他没有按照原来的路子继续加仓，反而增加了中上游资源股和军工板块。</p><p>“我还是低估了大家的亢奋情绪，特别是叠加了海外流动性的回归以后推波助澜的行情。”朱红裕坦言，“今年很多板块轮动得非常快，本身就说明这市场还是比较纠结地在寻找机会。股价的走势告诉我们，经济的复苏不一定像大家所想的那么乐观。”</p><p><b>对于今年的投资机会，魏凤春认为主要在于三个层次：</b>“首先是消费修复，短期看有了一定幅度的反弹，估值得到修复，接下来需要等待基本面的支撑。第二波是中期的产业纠偏，可能主要集中在医疗、互联网。第三是可以长期布局的自主可控、安全为主导的方向，这条线比较清晰。另外，还有一个主题，就是国企重塑，中国国有资产估值比较便宜。在中国特色估值体系建立后，它是一个载体，政策、基本面以及估值三方面加持的国企投资机会也值得关注。”</p><p>“2023年，伴随着地产政策的回暖以及疫情管控的放开，中国的内需消费将展示出勃勃生机。”仁桥资产创始人、投资总监夏俊杰对消费行业表示乐观。他认为，尽管疫情对某些行业的冲击是显著的，甚至是不可逆的，但从总量数据来看，国内居民的总体消费能力并未受到实质的损害。</p><p>而在嘉实基金姚志鹏看来，2023年是一个地产企稳，内需引领下的结构性经济复苏。这种复苏环境伴随流动性的稳定将是成长股最佳的投资环境。“在经济温和复苏，流动性合理充裕的场景下，市场中围绕着安全和发展为线索的新能源汽车、半导体、军工装备、创新医药和国产软件等领域有望成为新时代的五朵金花，这几类资产的比较和选择很可能成为未来三年投资的重点。”</p><p><b>对于起起落落的新能源板块，夏俊杰认为，周期的力量只会迟到，不会缺席，行业调整的大幕已正式拉开。</b>随着终端需求的放缓，这轮多米诺骨牌似的价格坍塌会横扫整个产业链，行业会经历一次痛苦的洗牌，唯有产能的实质出清才能拯救行业，新一轮的上升周期也才可能再次降临，但显然，这需要时间来消化。”</p><p>经历了2022年一系列黑天鹅的冲击，在“东升西落”、外资流入的主流观点和一致预期之外，市场参与者们仍对可能发生的风险保持着警惕。</p><p>北京时间2月2日凌晨，美联储宣布加息25个基点使得联邦基金利率升至4.5%-4.75%，速度进一步放缓，并承认通胀放缓但仍然过高。</p><p>“美联储加息放缓已经没有悬念并是既定事实，节奏已经没有意义，停止加息也就是一步之遥。”中金公司研究部策略分析师刘刚表示。“我们正在接近本轮力度堪称20世纪80年代以来之最的紧缩周期的终点。”威灵顿投资管理宏观策略师Santiago Millan认为。</p><p><b>一致预期之下，陈李提醒，海外通胀可能出现黑天鹅。</b>“如果目前都断定2023年海外通胀见顶，美联储停止加息，美元开始走软，一旦通胀延续、加息持续，那全球流动性还是收缩的环境，对我们来说会非常不利。”陈李对《财经》记者表示。</p><p>聚焦国内，市场紧密跟踪着疫情冲击波过后的消费复苏，以及绕不开的房地产行业。</p><p>瑞银首席中国经济学家汪涛认为，消费复苏是经济反弹的重要动力。随着疫情高峰期过去，居民积压的储蓄和需求将逐步释放，这是消费反弹的最主要动力。不过，汪涛也表示，“疫情对居民资产负债表有一定损伤，需要时间修复。”</p><p>“居民消费随着场景的恢复有所回升，但还没有回到正常的上行轨道上。因为决定消费最主要的收入和收入预期还没有恢复。”陈李表示。</p><p>“地产已经成为扩内需、促消费的重要抓手之一。”中信证券宏观经济首席分析师程强指出，“预计2023年全年房地产投资有望从2022年约-10%明显收窄至-5%左右，并逐季修复；房地产销售额、销售面积有望在2022年下滑超20%的情况下，2023年实现小幅增长。”</p><p>不过，程强同时强调，房地产已度过刚需人群的周期高点，中长期内将面临趋势性退坡。“长期来看，房地产仍然会是支柱行业，但不再是经济增长的最主要引擎。”汪涛表示。</p><p>房地产的回暖同样关乎市场走向。“在未来某个必然时刻，房地产将决定是向上波动放大带来价值行情，还是向下回摆带来普跌。”牟一凌对《财经》记者表示。</p><p>对于消费和地产共同拉动的宏观经济，是否会有黑天鹅出现？“2023年国内经济走向过热的风险是存在的。全年来看，通胀大概率是可控的，但2024年也许就不一样了。”夏俊杰表示。</p><p>陈欣告诉《财经》记者，“经济的复苏需要的是整个社会的消费复苏，而这又进一步取决于大家对未来收入预期的增长。<b>当前有一些好的信号，但不太明朗。可能要等开完两会之后，期待国家出台更强有力的促增长政策。”</b></p><p>“今年风险可能来自外部，尤其是美国对华相关产业不公平打压行为。”张夏对《财经》记者表示，“本次美国中期选举后，2023年美国对华的打压将会成为影响市场风险偏好的重要因素，尤其是对外资流入流出形成较大的扰动。”</p><p>在惠灵顿投资股票投资组合经理张博看来，在评估中国股市的投资机会时，需要谨记美国和中国保持持续合作关系的巨大动力，因为这两大世界经济体之间在资本市场、供应链和贸易方面有着实质性的相互依存关系。在张博看来，“中美之间的经济联系仍然紧密，而且很可能会继续如此”。</p><p><b>在顺风的市场环境下，牟一凌提醒应该为未来做好准备。</b>“中外环境可能都是暂时的美好停留，当前市场向上的动能尚未结束，交易结构也并不十分拥挤，但不应给予过高预期”。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1589542236822","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>做多A股，迷雾重重</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n做多A股，迷雾重重\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-08 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HOuPlK5c68DsE8OuPXyy3g><strong>读数一帜</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对全球经济衰退的担忧，以及对中国经济走向复苏的期待，叠加A股和港股被低估的价格，成为海外资金持续流入中国股市的主要驱动力兔年春节前后，外资大量流向A股。截至2023年1月31日，北向资金1月的净买入金额达到1413亿元，这已经远远超过了2022年全年的897亿元。而在此前的港股市场，外资同样在悄悄买入。一位外资机构人士对《财经》记者称，“从有陆港通以来，现在是中国股市相对优势最大的时候。”在外资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HOuPlK5c68DsE8OuPXyy3g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HOuPlK5c68DsE8OuPXyy3g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105557454","content_text":"对全球经济衰退的担忧，以及对中国经济走向复苏的期待，叠加A股和港股被低估的价格，成为海外资金持续流入中国股市的主要驱动力兔年春节前后，外资大量流向A股。截至2023年1月31日，北向资金1月的净买入金额达到1413亿元，这已经远远超过了2022年全年的897亿元。而在此前的港股市场，外资同样在悄悄买入。一位外资机构人士对《财经》记者称，“从有陆港通以来，现在是中国股市相对优势最大的时候。”在外资看来，中国资产是基于全球视野下的资产配置高性价比选择。对包括美国在内的全球经济衰退的担忧，以及对中国经济走向复苏的期待，叠加A股和港股当前的价格，一推一拉之间，成为此轮海外资金流入中国市场的主要驱动力。“随着中国经济在全球的影响力越来越大，预计外资的配置需求还会增加。中国经济周期的节奏跟西方主流国家不一致，外资从分散风险、中长期投资的角度都会有需求。”上海交大上海高级金融学院教授陈欣对《财经》记者表示。特许另类投资分析师协会（CAIA）总裁William Kelly接受《财经》记者采访时表示，海外投资中国，更多是看中中国市场年轻消费群体的崛起。“美国二次大战之后的婴儿潮，后来成了美国国内重要的消费主力。我们相信中国的消费群体力量也是中长期的。”已经流入的外资用行动证明了对中国经济复苏的看好，而存量内资则是“乐观，但没有那么乐观”，无论从A股两市成交量还是指数涨幅来看都没那么积极，A股反弹在春节开市第一个交易日的高开后停歇，北上资金也在连续17个交易日净买入后转向。经济复苏并非一蹴而就，内外资机构也在挖掘不一样的投资机会。“无论是不是投资所谓的核心资产，都要取决于公司盈利能力的提升，我们还需要更多的数据来验证经济是否回到正常上升轨道。”东吴证券全球首席策略官陈李表示。与此同时，资本市场改革迈出了重要一步，全面注册制正式开启。2月1日，中国证监会就全面实行股票发行注册制主要制度规则向社会公开征求意见。历经四年多时间，中国资本市场从试点走向全面注册制。证监会表示，试点注册制是符合中国国情的，是成功的，主要制度安排经受住了市场检验，给市场各方带来了实实在在的获得感，向全市场推广水到渠成。一致预期下，风险和机遇同样值得重视。机构人士认为，从宏观经济复苏的确定性，到海外通胀的持续性，以及地缘政治冲突，都需要进一步的跟踪和观察。外资回流中国“今年以来，我们在股市上买不到美的，买不到东方雨虹，就连洽洽食品也买不到了。像在经济复苏这种比较火的赛道上，虽有公司不错，但也没有选到估值合适的标的。”罗斯柴尔德资产管理公司（Edmond De Rothschild Asset Management）新兴市场投资经理包夏东对《财经》记者感叹道，“不是想买的外资太多，就是股票估值被市场炒得太高了。”春江水暖鸭先知。GROW思睿集团创始人兼首席投资官马晖洪与外资打交道20多年，从去年10月开始，他便频频感受到外资对中国市场迅速升温的热情。春节前夕，在美国迈阿密的一场闭门论坛上，许多养老金机构投资者围着马晖洪打听中国市场的情况。他们最关心的问题是：“听说中国放开疫情管控了，现在经济恢复得怎么样？”“美国养老金机构今年的话题是：担心全球经济衰退。这时候他们对中国的表现是非常期待的。”在马晖洪看来，驱使外资买入中国资产的力量分为两部分：推力和拉力。推力来自美国。“他们看到美国高频经济数据越来越差，加息放缓、美元走弱，出于分散一部分美国经济衰退风险的考虑，他们需要向新兴市场分散仓位”。拉力来自中国。“中国的种种表现超出了他们的预期，包括防疫措施优化的动作提前，对房地产的政策扶持、拉动内需的相关政策等”。马晖洪把近期的北上资金买入称为“回流”。“现在还没有回流到高峰时期，大钱还没有进来。”他向《财经》记者打了个比方，“外资买方里，十个人有两个是非常看好中国，已经加仓了。三个还在观望，他们要看到一季度的数据，看到企业盈利了、消费稳定了才会进来。另外五个，则要看一年以上。”实际上在陆港通业务开展后，北向资金净买入金额最高的数据出现在2021年，当年全年净买入4322亿元。若以该金额作为对比，2023年1月的数据约占2021年全年数据的33%，接近于三分之一。2023年元旦后，境外资金明显加大了对中国资产的配置力度。截至1月31日，北向资金在1月的净买入金额达到1413亿元，这个数字已经远远超过了2022年全年的897亿元。北向资金的操作并不是孤立的。早在2022年四季度，内地资金就以陆港通中的港股通为渠道，南下中国香港抄底。2022年10月，南向资金净买入737.56亿港元；11月南向资金净买入501.59亿港元；12月南向资金净买入94.21亿港元。值得一提的是，南下资金抄底之际，外资也在同时买入港股。对外资来说，港股类似于中国资产的“桥头堡”角色。思睿集团当时的数据显示，尽管港股大幅回调，但香港最大的港股ETF盈富基金（2800.HK）的周度资金流入达到历史最高水平，同时这只ETF的累计资金流入亦处于历史最高。作为标杆性产品，透过盈富基金的数据变化可看到外资对港股的态度。“港股是外资观察中国资产的领先指标。短线买港股，中线看A股。因为港股估值比较低，弹性更大。”马晖洪解释道。港股之后便是A股。就在南下抄底的内资在香港市场赚得盆满钵满之际，外资的目光已经瞄向A股市场。北向资金在2022年11月便开始净买入A股，一开始动作并不大。但是2023年元旦过后，北向资金再也没有犹豫，他们在一个月的时间内就净买入了1412.9亿元的A股。不过，同期A股的回报不如港股，上证指数在2023年1月仅上涨了6.33%，恒生指数涨幅超10%。涨幅不同步，一定程度上与内资的态度有关。北向资金“买买买”的时候，A股成交量并未有效放大。仅在春节长假恢复交易的首日成交额高于1万亿元，其余时间成交量一直保持在7000亿元左右。至此，A股市场中的北向资金主导痕迹明显，不少投资人士开始揣摩外资持股的风格，并向其倾斜。2022年12月疫情措施优化后，餐饮、旅游、食品、白酒等消费股备受市场热捧，人们认为这些行业困境反转，业绩存在改善空间。其中白酒是投资者们认为北向有可能抄底的方向，该行业成交量能容纳汹涌的北向资金，同时也是蓝筹股中涨幅较大的行业。Wind（万得）白酒指数去年12月涨幅为11.60%，今年1月涨幅为5.27%。外资真的买入了这些股票吗？一方面，从个股的角度来看，今年以来，北向资金净买入前十的个股是：宁德时代、中国平安、贵州茅台、隆基绿能、招商银行、五粮液、比亚迪、中国中免、京东方A、紫金矿业。大量北上资金沉淀在消费、新能源、金融的龙头公司中。另一方面，《财经》记者通过外资持股市值与持股数量的环比变化发现，近期外资增持力度最大的并不在消费等行业，而是集中在有色金属、电子、非银金融行业中。Wind数据显示，申万一级行业中，2023年1月北向资金持股市值环比增长额居前的行业是电力设备、食品饮料、非银金融、有色金属。考虑到行业原先持股市值的基数和股价涨幅，持股市值并不能完整描述外资抄底的方向。例如北上资金重仓的食品饮料板块，虽然1月持股市值增加了371亿元，但原先基数就有3213亿元，实际上持股市值环比增长率仅有12%，这与白酒等行业指数的涨幅类似。外资持股数量方面，持股增加10亿股以上的行业只剩下有色金属、电子、银行、非银金融四个行业。综合持股市值与持股数量，外资在今年1月创造的1413亿元净买入，大部分都买在了有色金属、电子、非银金融身上。Wind有色金属指数1月涨幅为18%、电子指数涨幅11%、非银金融指数涨幅11%。踏空的内资是纠结的，这一点从南向资金的动向可见一斑。南向资金去年12月已经减少了净买入港股的势头，但是并未出现净卖出，也就是内资并没有卖出港股撤回境内。1月恰逢春节假期，南向资金的态度也并不明显。但是春节假期归来，南向资金开始明显净卖出港股，节后一周，其净卖出174.87亿港元。2月1日，中国资本市场迎来了盼望已久的全面注册制改革——中国证监会就全面实行股票发行注册制主要制度规则向社会公开征求意见，一系列制度变革将对中国资本市场产生深远影响。与此同时，以南向资金为代表的内资开始行动了，A股市场连续两日成交额超万亿元中国经济复苏进行时外资的持续流入，表面上看是基于“全球资产配置性价比”的考虑，核心原因在于看中了中国资产的长期投资价值。“我们对中国市场有着长远的信心，投资中国不是备选项，而是必选项。”瑞银中国区总裁及瑞银证券董事长钱于军在近日表示。“我接触的全球机构投资者大多数都是看至少3年-5年周期的投资机会，当然他们也需要择时，选择合适的时机介入。”William Kelly告诉《财经》记者。这一时机出现在防疫措施调整和房地产调控措施相继出台之后。“去年11月前后，海外投资者对于中国2023年的年度展望都相对谨慎，北上资金配置盘也出现了持续净流出。进入12月以后，防疫政策变化和房地产的帮扶措施，使得外资出现了比较明显的预期改善。”民生证券首席策略分析师牟一凌对《财经》记者表示。“过去两年外资减持中国权益资产的背景包括中国宏观经济下行、中美关系恶化、全球流动性紧缩以及中概股退市等事件逐步爆发。这一次外资的买入将是大的方向和趋势，这背后是中国整体宏观经济的逐步修复和企稳回升。”嘉实基金吴越对《财经》记者表示。中国经济正在复苏。贝莱德智库首席中国经济学家宋宇认为，在发达国家可能步入衰退，中国外需面临下行压力的背景下，内需将成为拉动中国经济的主要力量。春节消费一般被认为是观察中国经济的一扇重要窗口。2023年春节消费远超出预期。携程发布的《2023年春节旅游总结报告》显示，今年春节期间旅游订单整体较去年同期增长4倍。在假期消费方面，国家税务总局增值税发票数据显示，今年春节假期，全国消费相关行业销售收入同比增长12.2%。中国工业生产也正快速恢复。1月31日，国家统计局数据显示，1月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比去年12月上升3.1%。非制造业商务活动指数为54.4%，环比上升12.8%。综合PMI产出指数为52.9%，较去年12月上升10.3%。这些数据表明，中国的经济景气度水平明显回升。“从宏微观数据来看，总体上春节消费恢复较好，较多领域基本恢复到了2019年的同期水平，且恢复的广度强于深度。”长江证券首席策略分析师包承超向《财经》记者表示。“中国经济的复苏是全方位、多层次的，不是少数几个行业的好转。”畅力资产董事长兼首席投资官宝晓辉表示，一方面，防疫政策的调整直接带动了旅游、酒店等行业的活跃。另一方面，大量积极有效的货币政策和财政政策为经济长期发展提供了助力。中国经济的复苏，既有内生动能，也有着政策的助力。实际上，稳增长政策一直在加码。2022年底，中央经济工作会议提出，积极的财政政策要加力提效，稳健的货币政策要精准有力。在房地产领域，中国自去年开始就推出了超千条的房地产调控政策，“三箭齐发”全方位提振楼市。2023年，业界预计，房地产领域仍将有更为积极的刺激政策。1月30日，全国商务工作会议提出六方面重点工作，其中第一点是把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置。此外，还提出要更大力度推动外贸稳规模、优结构；更大力度吸引和利用外资等。平台经济政策也得到进一步改善。互联网等平台经济主体随着绿灯案例推行、游戏版号发放等多重利好，政策拐点已现。2023年，平台经济政策将更为积极。此外，民营企业等多个领域均有政策出台，对民营经济的支持力度将会进一步加大。与此同时，企业的盈利也正在逐渐恢复。广发证券表示，A股多数板块在2023年盈利一致预期显著上修，包括消费、资源等行业。该预期是分析师基于行业前景的一致预期，是否兑现还要看上市公司后期业绩释放来确认。国盛证券的研究报告认为，2023年行业预期实现较高业绩增长且环比改善的行业主要分布于大消费与高端制造。此外，低基数效应也会驱动一些行业业绩大幅提升。正是基于对中国经济恢复的信心，不少国际投资机构上调中国2023年GDP（国内生产总值）预期。花旗集团分析师认为，中国经济将更快复苏，对今年中国经济增长达5.3%的预测还有上行空间。摩根士丹利将中国GDP增幅预测上调0.3个百分点至5.7%。宋宇认为，2023年中国GDP增速有望达到6%。国际货币基金组织（IMF）在1月31日发布的《世界经济展望报告》中指出，预估2023年全球经济增长为2.9%，中国经济增长为5.2%，高于2022年10月4.4%的预测。“前几年受到疫情影响较大，很多行业受到了较为严厉的调控，经济基础受到一定程度的损害。今年整个宏观经济政策是放松的态势，包括全面注册制也是一种放松。”陈欣说，“政府减少干预将提升市场的经济运行效率，中国经济增长的趋势将得到较好的恢复，就是时间长短的问题。”华泰证券认为，总体而言，2023年可能仍是宏观政策“修养生息”的一年，货币和财政刺激的适度、温和退出，或许不足以改变中国温和再通胀的进程。贝莱德认为，中国经济恢复不会一蹴而就，其中的恢复路径、程度与速度或将受到财政政策的影响。“从风险角度考量，宏观经济复苏的确定性还需要验证。如果在真实需求没有大幅恢复的时候，我们需要观察政策端，如财政补贴，是否有可能兜住经济下行的风险。此外，还需要警惕年内出现第二次、第三次疫情反复的可能性。”吴越对《财经》记者表示。内外资博弈下的A股同样是做多中国，北上资金的鲜明态度与内资的犹豫形成强烈反差。“外资逼空内资”“今年又是茅指数的行情”“内资还纠结小市值，格局小了”……一时间，市场议论声四起。“造成外资和各类内资投资风格差异的原因主要在于，各类资金性质、考核机制、投资目标等存在差异，所以投资时会选择不同的投资策略。”招商证券首席策略分析师张夏对《财经》记者表示，“在A股市场上，外资占比有了比较明显的提升，其对A股市场的影响越来越显著，再加上内外资在思维模式、投资体系、投资节奏有差异，所以内外资的博弈在近几年有所加剧。但无论怎样，宏观经济与政策、流动性环境、基本面、盈利、市场情绪等都是投资者在决策时需要综合考量的因素。”“外资回流趋势可能贯穿全年，有望成为A股市场重要的增量资金来源。”汇丰晋信海外投资部总监程彧接受《财经》记者采访时表示，“外资偏好有核心竞争力且有长期稳定盈利能力的资产，看好中国核心资产的超额收益。但我们不应简单地将核心资产打上‘大市值’‘漂亮50’等标签，本质还是要回到考量企业的护城河及盈利能力核心指标上来。”马晖洪看到仍有许多外资机构在观望。“有位大型养老金负责人跟我说，至少要涨40%才会考虑进来。养老金都是五年以上的长线投资，40%的涨幅对他们来说不算什么，但确定性很重要。他们担忧的是政策的不稳定性和不可预测性。之前政府对互联网平台、教育行业的整顿使得他们从中国市场撤离，也心有余悸。一些前两年进入中国市场的海外投资者在中国的损失不小，去年亏了30%，跑输A股也跑输美股。”中融基金FOF基金经理周桓则认为，北上资金的快速流入可能也会慢慢回到正常状态。“后续行情能否持续，主要看北上资金能否持续。背后的影响因素包括美国经济与新兴经济之间的相对强弱、汇率变动趋势、配置资金的现状，三个因素的边际变化有两个在趋弱”。陈李也表示，未来一段时间外资流入的速度或将放慢。“一是美国市场慢慢出现了软着陆的预期，大幅衰退的预期在减弱；二是我们要清醒地看到，中国并不是海外资本在新兴市场的唯一选择，需要充分注意到其他新兴市场经济体在疫情之后的快速增长”。“其实国内的新增资金大头不在机构，而在储户。”周桓坦言，“过去两年很多投资者没挣到钱，储蓄也很难迁移。银行什么时候开始发行爆款基金了，那总量资金可能就起来了。但现在公募基金销售非常难，所以总体来说还是一个存量博弈的状态。”2020年1月至2022年11月，中国的居民部门积累了约10万亿元超额储蓄，其中2022年积累的超额储蓄为6.77万亿元。国联证券预计，居民减少房地产配置带来的超额储蓄有望为股市带来增量资金。在内外资不同风格的资金博弈下，今年的A股风格将如何演绎？是否可能重新演绎盛极一时的“核心资产”风潮、还是由内资接力抱团景气赛道？“外资流入的前20大股票几乎都是清一色的白马股，说明中国优质上市公司的股权正在被外资抢筹。”前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙认为，在经济复苏的情况之下，投资者会更多去关注上市公司业绩的回升，业绩优良的优质龙头股可能会重新受到资金的配置。温州嘉越投资管理公司投资总监吴悦风认为，现在的行情类似于2019年-2021年。“茅指数是大主线，中间也有半导体信创。相比以前，这一波会有更多的成长股表现，口味肯定还是外资看好的。目前只有外资的增量能看得比较清楚。也许后面量会变小，但起码比国内公募的募集情况一潭死水来得强。哪天国内产品募集热度起来了，外资这点增量就不够看了，那时风格会换。”张夏则表示，“往后看，随着北上资金可能放缓，而融资资金为代表的内资可能逐渐成为主力增量资金的情况下，市场更可能逐渐转向偏中小成长风格。”在牟一凌看来，国内、海外两个钟摆过去一段时间都摆在了中间，非常有利于A股，我们不能说这个阶段结束了，但是从机理上看，它不能永远静止在这里。“我们判断未来大家说的‘吃饭行情’进入了‘上甜点’的阶段。类似于去年7月以后，大家会往反弹相关领域的中证1000去扩散一段时间。”“大家玩的东西不太一样，不太会去相互接盘对方的高位资产。”一位券商首席经济学家告诉《财经》记者，“外资更喜欢大盘、消费等稳定一些的，内资整体会更偏向赛道。外资从全球配置的角度已经率先行动了，国内资金就比较纠结。”“虽然最近北上资金量不少，但不可能成为2023年中国市场核心的定价力量。”创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春分析，北上资金更看重中国的低估值资产，而2023年是一个产业转型的年份。“我们叫‘价值搭台，成长唱戏’。中国的高质量发展是制造业、是实业，这是由中国自身的力量所决定的，这点毋庸置疑。”“此前外资确实主导过A股市场的风格，但现在主导不了了。”华夏基金基金经理许利明也向《财经》记者表达了他的观点。许利明认为，此前A股资产在国际资本整体配置中占比很低，外资投资的主要目标是配置需求。在这个目标主导下，北上资金的投资风格中“大盘”“均衡”“低波动”等特色比较明显，对消费和金融行业表现出极高的偏好。随着A股资产在国际资本整体中配置比例的提升，他们投资目标中配置需求可能会逐渐下降，交易需求会逐渐上升。从追求收益角度出发，未来北上资金的决策权重中，对成长因子的考虑有可能会提升。“北上资金的示范效应有可能被夸大了。”许利明说，随着北上资金存量规模的扩大，增量资金与存量资金的对比关系发生了变化，他们的投资行为也可能因此发生变化。在这种情况下，简单复用前些年“跟着北上资金炒股票”的投资模式，有可能夸大北上资金的示范效应，从而带来风险。“A股的投研肯定比外资更深入。共识是今年会比去年好，不过还是各看各的，闭眼买龙头的日子可能已经过去了。”周桓说，“外资扫龙头，但股价和基本面之间的估值修复基本已经完成了。后面再涨就需要基本面超预期了。A股的基金经理们投资成长股肯定不是这个思路，肯定要找逻辑顺畅、数据可验证、估值还不错的股票。”转折之年的机会与风险在2022年净值受挫的基金经理们，期待抓住转折与复苏之年的投资机会。基于公募基金四季报，华创证券统计了不同流派的基金经理的仓位变化，得出的结论是：一致共识是加仓医药，新能源中光伏更受青睐，对地产和困境反转的消费链分歧较大，港股则成了提升仓位的首选。在多变的市场环境中，有人保持着投资方向，有人在短短两个月里迅速调转了方向。“港股市场于2022年10月见底之后，在三个月的时间内指数上涨已经超过了40%，个别公司上涨超过了100%，也自然会有部分投资人考虑锁定利润，腾挪轮动到涨幅较为落后的A股市场板块。”中欧基金港股基金经理罗佳明告诉《财经》记者，他认为这属于市场的正常调整。随后企业盈利跟随整体经济修复，以及美联储进一步确认加息周期的尾声之后，港股市场会回到本轮行情的主逻辑上来。“我没想到港股的互联网公司股票涨幅如此迅猛。”去年四季度，招商基金朱红裕凭借对消费板块和港股的提前布局，组合业绩十分亮眼，规模增长很快。收到申购资金后，他没有按照原来的路子继续加仓，反而增加了中上游资源股和军工板块。“我还是低估了大家的亢奋情绪，特别是叠加了海外流动性的回归以后推波助澜的行情。”朱红裕坦言，“今年很多板块轮动得非常快，本身就说明这市场还是比较纠结地在寻找机会。股价的走势告诉我们，经济的复苏不一定像大家所想的那么乐观。”对于今年的投资机会，魏凤春认为主要在于三个层次：“首先是消费修复，短期看有了一定幅度的反弹，估值得到修复，接下来需要等待基本面的支撑。第二波是中期的产业纠偏，可能主要集中在医疗、互联网。第三是可以长期布局的自主可控、安全为主导的方向，这条线比较清晰。另外，还有一个主题，就是国企重塑，中国国有资产估值比较便宜。在中国特色估值体系建立后，它是一个载体，政策、基本面以及估值三方面加持的国企投资机会也值得关注。”“2023年，伴随着地产政策的回暖以及疫情管控的放开，中国的内需消费将展示出勃勃生机。”仁桥资产创始人、投资总监夏俊杰对消费行业表示乐观。他认为，尽管疫情对某些行业的冲击是显著的，甚至是不可逆的，但从总量数据来看，国内居民的总体消费能力并未受到实质的损害。而在嘉实基金姚志鹏看来，2023年是一个地产企稳，内需引领下的结构性经济复苏。这种复苏环境伴随流动性的稳定将是成长股最佳的投资环境。“在经济温和复苏，流动性合理充裕的场景下，市场中围绕着安全和发展为线索的新能源汽车、半导体、军工装备、创新医药和国产软件等领域有望成为新时代的五朵金花，这几类资产的比较和选择很可能成为未来三年投资的重点。”对于起起落落的新能源板块，夏俊杰认为，周期的力量只会迟到，不会缺席，行业调整的大幕已正式拉开。随着终端需求的放缓，这轮多米诺骨牌似的价格坍塌会横扫整个产业链，行业会经历一次痛苦的洗牌，唯有产能的实质出清才能拯救行业，新一轮的上升周期也才可能再次降临，但显然，这需要时间来消化。”经历了2022年一系列黑天鹅的冲击，在“东升西落”、外资流入的主流观点和一致预期之外，市场参与者们仍对可能发生的风险保持着警惕。北京时间2月2日凌晨，美联储宣布加息25个基点使得联邦基金利率升至4.5%-4.75%，速度进一步放缓，并承认通胀放缓但仍然过高。“美联储加息放缓已经没有悬念并是既定事实，节奏已经没有意义，停止加息也就是一步之遥。”中金公司研究部策略分析师刘刚表示。“我们正在接近本轮力度堪称20世纪80年代以来之最的紧缩周期的终点。”威灵顿投资管理宏观策略师Santiago Millan认为。一致预期之下，陈李提醒，海外通胀可能出现黑天鹅。“如果目前都断定2023年海外通胀见顶，美联储停止加息，美元开始走软，一旦通胀延续、加息持续，那全球流动性还是收缩的环境，对我们来说会非常不利。”陈李对《财经》记者表示。聚焦国内，市场紧密跟踪着疫情冲击波过后的消费复苏，以及绕不开的房地产行业。瑞银首席中国经济学家汪涛认为，消费复苏是经济反弹的重要动力。随着疫情高峰期过去，居民积压的储蓄和需求将逐步释放，这是消费反弹的最主要动力。不过，汪涛也表示，“疫情对居民资产负债表有一定损伤，需要时间修复。”“居民消费随着场景的恢复有所回升，但还没有回到正常的上行轨道上。因为决定消费最主要的收入和收入预期还没有恢复。”陈李表示。“地产已经成为扩内需、促消费的重要抓手之一。”中信证券宏观经济首席分析师程强指出，“预计2023年全年房地产投资有望从2022年约-10%明显收窄至-5%左右，并逐季修复；房地产销售额、销售面积有望在2022年下滑超20%的情况下，2023年实现小幅增长。”不过，程强同时强调，房地产已度过刚需人群的周期高点，中长期内将面临趋势性退坡。“长期来看，房地产仍然会是支柱行业，但不再是经济增长的最主要引擎。”汪涛表示。房地产的回暖同样关乎市场走向。“在未来某个必然时刻，房地产将决定是向上波动放大带来价值行情，还是向下回摆带来普跌。”牟一凌对《财经》记者表示。对于消费和地产共同拉动的宏观经济，是否会有黑天鹅出现？“2023年国内经济走向过热的风险是存在的。全年来看，通胀大概率是可控的，但2024年也许就不一样了。”夏俊杰表示。陈欣告诉《财经》记者，“经济的复苏需要的是整个社会的消费复苏，而这又进一步取决于大家对未来收入预期的增长。当前有一些好的信号，但不太明朗。可能要等开完两会之后，期待国家出台更强有力的促增长政策。”“今年风险可能来自外部，尤其是美国对华相关产业不公平打压行为。”张夏对《财经》记者表示，“本次美国中期选举后，2023年美国对华的打压将会成为影响市场风险偏好的重要因素，尤其是对外资流入流出形成较大的扰动。”在惠灵顿投资股票投资组合经理张博看来，在评估中国股市的投资机会时，需要谨记美国和中国保持持续合作关系的巨大动力，因为这两大世界经济体之间在资本市场、供应链和贸易方面有着实质性的相互依存关系。在张博看来，“中美之间的经济联系仍然紧密，而且很可能会继续如此”。在顺风的市场环境下，牟一凌提醒应该为未来做好准备。“中外环境可能都是暂时的美好停留，当前市场向上的动能尚未结束，交易结构也并不十分拥挤，但不应给予过高预期”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621039031,"gmtCreate":1671724108723,"gmtModify":1671724110433,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一头雾水","listText":"一头雾水","text":"一头雾水","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621039031","repostId":"2293557321","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2293557321","pubTimestamp":1671782584,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2293557321?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-23 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Elon Musk, Bring The Pain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293557321","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDown 51% year to date, Tesla, Inc. may soon get on the radar of some value investors.The twee","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Down 51% year to date, Tesla, Inc. may soon get on the radar of some value investors.</li><li>The tweeting debacle is an excellent catalyst to bring the share price down from the stratosphere.</li><li>Although this was a Covid rocket stock, Tesla is by no means unprofitable and certainly sits in the driver&#39;s seat for all things EV.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c27a0eac9a28bef79be0b62ea6e94f9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Xiaolu Chu</span></p><h2>Tesla rocket finally coming back down to earth</h2><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a stock that I have been heavily critical of when having discussions about whether the company is a value or not circa 2020 and 2021. The &#34;it&#39;s the future, bro&#34; arguments have fallen time and time again on my deaf ears, far too analytical and critical of numbers and ratios. Some of the projections have been outright ludicrous. Included in these assumptions are Robo-taxis and autonomous driving software.</p><p>However, with the price being cut in half and earnings having quadrupled based nearly 100% on car sales over the Covid era, I&#39;m starting to change my mind about Tesla. I still don&#39;t buy into the revenue and earnings projections outside of the electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) segment, but based on the EV segment alone, I&#39;m beginning to like the numbers.</p><p>I give Tesla credit for growing earnings, both GAAP and non-GAAP, sales and revenues at a faster clip than I could have ever imagined. The margins are also higher than competitors. While the growth has been impressive, the high CAGR in earnings is going from nothing to something without a ton of trailing data. With 2022 basically in the books, we are hitting that 5-year data mark where I would start to be confident in drawing evidence-based conclusions on what they have achieved.</p><p>I consider Tesla a buy, although a cautious one. I would dollar cost average here and speed up the buys under $130.</p><h2>Nice dip</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30f55c37c8c36334719ebe5c4c3d734\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>seeking alpha</span></p><p>50+% is a nice dip. Getting cut in half is not usually a situation that lasts long in Tesla shares. Normally, loyalists would step in to give some support and the hedge funds would follow suit.</p><h2>Something seems different this time.</h2><p>One positive is that this drop, taking it down close to pre-Covid prices, happens at a time when Tesla is nearly quadrupling the non-GAAP EBITDA earnings during the trailing 3 years. It is growing from just over $4 Billion to $16.3 on a TTM basis. It&#39;s possible that Elon fans were basing their valuations on how closely the CEO fit their ideal of a leader. Now that he has purchased Twitter and is expressing his ideas on the platform, that sheen is wearing off.</p><p>To say the least, I am thrilled that a non-correlated event is taking the share price of a company like Tesla down a peg. These are the best of situations, as you normally only get value investment opportunities when a directly correlated negative event occurs. For instance, negative oil prices in the case of Exxon (XOM), high-interest rates killing the housing market for Toll Brothers (TOL), or a bad collateralized loan like American Express (AXP) had with the &#34;salad oil&#34; scandal.</p><p>Future assumptions on how sales might go in the face of a recession could also be negative, but that item has yet to manifest.</p><h2>Boots on the ground</h2><p>It&#39;s been my luck that I live near Giga Factory 1, I know several factory employees and have seen the positive effect that Tesla has had on the community of Northern Nevada. The first Giga Factory was set up in conjunction with Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY, OTCPK:PCRFF), sharing the factory right down the middle 50/50. The location is ideal, 3 hours from Fremont, the cars come over the Sierras in a daily stream down I-80 east, offloaded at the factory to be packed with battery cells. While Berlin, Shanghai, and Austin get all the headlines, this is the factory that most likely puts the cells in your car if you drive a Tesla.</p><p>At the time, Tesla was so cool that they brought a plethora of tech-related companies from the Bay Area along with them and had the largest industrial park in the world sold out within a couple of years of their arrival. The cool kid panache did more than drive up the stock price, it attracted other large companies on their coattails like a magnet. Tesla also offered stock options and compensation to every factory worker from the bottom to the top. Many a new home down payment was made by liquidating Tesla stock. Many a backyard was regrettably landscaped with Tesla stock as well. I say regrettably because the share price would often go on to double or triple thereafter, making your $25,000 brick-lay job a potential profit loss of $100 grand or more.</p><p>This is simply one man&#39;s Phil Fisher Scuttlebutt observation. Employees give me feedback that Tesla is running a quality operation. Since the entire operation is built around EVs to start, they don&#39;t need to reconfigure existing internal combustion engine (&#34;ICE&#34;) operations to fit the EV product line. They have streamlined the operation a ton from the inception of Giga 1 to current, automating more and more lines as they go along. I imagine the automation advances help to maintain and increase their margins. The advances from Giga 1 have helped and will help further Giga factories to start from a more advanced position.</p><h2>Twitter time</h2><p>Then came October, and Musk closed on the Twitter deal:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107862bddcfd4ae7525a37da59e825ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>yahoo finance</span></p><p>From late September when the deal was about to close until now, the stock has shed most of that 50% in this short time frame. This is occurring due to a non-Tesla correlated event, other than the assumption that Tesla&#39;s captain is asleep at the wheel. With this, we begin to realize that Tesla on its own merits was overpriced, but Musk added a huge premium. That premium may be gone now, although his intelligence remain as IP with the company. The Tesla price is now beginning to resemble a stock traded on fundamentals rather than blind optimism.</p><h2>Value</h2><p>For growth companies that take a lot of write-offs and depreciation, I like to look under the hood at the non-GAAP earnings equation until a company scales back its growth initiatives. Currently, we have TTM GAAP earnings at a tad over $11 Billion and non-GAAP EBITDA TTM at $16.348 Billion, or roughly 33% higher.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f653e63545af4f23fa18645c3cb4d8ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>yahoo finance</span></p><p>Looking at 2018 on the far right side to TTM on the left, we see a CAGR in EBITDA of 57.366%. That&#39;s a hot number, and one of the primary catalysts in the share price ascension. When I say &#34;hot,&#34;, I also mean non-sustainable in the long run. Beating 25% per year CAGR on any earnings line doesn&#39;t happen for long periods. Thus, taking Peter Lynch&#39;s advice, I like to max out my growth multiple at 25% (25 X) per annum even if a company is exceeding that CAGR in the near term. With 3.099 Billion shares outstanding, that currently gives us an EBITDA per share of $5.25, the number I will use as my multiplicand. To wind up at the crosshairs of a PEG ratio of 1 or less on an EBITDA basis assuming a max growth rate of 25%, I will simply use 25 as my multiplier times $5.25. This spits out a fair value of $131.25. Close, but not quite where I want it yet.</p><h2>The balance sheet</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35f1ce94535378da2e5ea5fecdffc1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>yahoo finance</span></p><p>Tesla is fairly well capitalized with $21.11 Billion in cash and cash equivalents. With only $5.87 Billion in debt, the debt-to-equity ratio is only 14.28%. These numbers are more akin to tech versus vehicle companies where even the most conservative companies like Toyota Motors (TM) are still levered up over 100%. The least conservative, like Ford (F), can be levered up over 300% if you include their capital markets arms that extend syndicated debt to the consumer. Therefore, in this sense, I will certainly agree that the balance sheet of Tesla does resemble a tech company because they have been able to grow through equity raises due to the popularity of the company. Other vehicle manufacturers do not have that luxury. While the auto sector will be sensitive to interest rates for both consumer financing and financing operations, at least Tesla does not have to worry much about their company side of the equation.</p><h2>Balance sheet trends</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfc7a7ace018dc9badcaf9690b3c5f74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>seeking alpha</span></p><p>A positive trend observation I always like to borrow from Peter Lynch is which direction are current assets and debt going. Ideally, current assets should be on the uptrend and debt, especially long-term debt on the downtrend. In Tesla&#39;s case, current assets have increased from $8.3 Billion 5 years ago to $35.9 Billion today, a CAGR of 34%. That is a positive trend indeed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c440fb210a511c5fce6260696d814fce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>yahoo finance</span></p><p>We also can observe total debt, long term excluding current debt, down almost 50%. While current debt is up, that is mainly a number that floats upwards with sales volume funding product that comes off the line, centered around accounts payable to suppliers as demand increases. The long-term debt number is certainly the focus and is trending in the right direction as well.</p><h2>Plant growth</h2><p>Another Tesla bull argument is that the massive expansion in Giga factory growth is going to lead to amazing earnings growth potential and car sales volume that will exceed their competition. Truth is, they will certainly be cash incinerators for a good while, and they are needed to simply compete with other manufacturers that already have plants all over the world. Volume should not be the focus, but rather efficiencies and margins.</p><p>Everyone knows the vehicle production/sold comparison between Tesla and the other auto producers, and I believe that this is more a game of catchup rather than racing ahead. If they can produce half as many cars as the top competitors but continue to automate more and more operations, leading to double the margins, that would be a win. With a gross profit margin of 25% and a return on invested capital of 15%, this is another tech-like resemblance that I give Tesla points for. Replicating this all over the world could make Tesla a profit leader even with less sales volume.</p><h2>Industry trends</h2><p>The inflation reduction act passed in August should be a boon for all EV auto makers, with Tesla being a main beneficiary. The $7,500 in tax credits for EV buyers should help maintain at least flat revenue if the economy takes a dive. I see it as a backstop if 2023 turns out to be as rough a year as many economists are making it out to be. Wells Fargo (WFC) expects the year to be a recession, recovery, and then a rebound by the end of the year. A recessionary environment entering 2023 should give us a greater chance to buy Tesla at a discount for possibly the first two quarters of the year. A FED pivot in the summer heading into election season will probably send tech and growth stocks bouncing well off the bottoms.</p><p>Tesla still garners almost 100% of its profits from the sales of vehicles, so I will continue to put Tesla squarely in the vehicle manufacturer segment versus energy storage.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fec1be0b52fd21d61e8cecdc30ab63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>evadoption.com</span></p><p>Tesla is way ahead in the U.S. market for 2022, controlling more than 50% of the EV market. The total representation of vehicle sales in the U.S. is still only 1.13%, therefore, there&#39;s still a lot of room to grow. Best case scenario is Tesla approaches Toyota/Ford levels at 10+% market share. I personally wouldn&#39;t get any more optimistic than that, but with Tesla&#39;s superior margins, that would be enough to satisfy my appetite.</p><h2>Catalysts</h2><p>The most logical catalysts coming to fruition are the Semi-truck deliveries. With the initial orders delivered to Pepsi at the beginning of December, this will be the main item that I have my eye on. With Austin up and running, it will be fascinating to see if the trucks actually catch on and garner demand. The logistics of charging large vehicles with huge battery capacities will be the challenge. The installation of mega chargers is the key to adoption. Which grids can handle them and how many can they get installed along major transport routes before the end of 2023 is the question. All these are items that, if pulled off successfully, should be major catalysts for Tesla.</p><h2>Risks</h2><p>Risks are threefold. The continued disliking of Elon Musk by the media, poor execution in the Semi-truck segment, and a recession that causes sales volume to dip below a point at which tax credits could backstop them. If the recession turns out to be milder than thought and China stays open from Covid lockdowns, sales volume might stay on track to increase. However, in a year running up to an election and the possibility for many divisive tweets, don&#39;t be surprised if Musk is able to create a share discount all by himself even if all other items execute.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>I would never look at a vehicle company on a non-GAAP performance basis, and usually revert to the most conservative metric of all, the Graham Number, to incorporate their book value. Almost all of Tesla&#39;s competitors have been around for decades, and their businesses and earnings growth resemble that. Tesla&#39;s income statement and balance sheet both follow tech-related trends at this point, so I am giving Tesla quite a premium to what I would normally pay for a car company.</p><p>Tesla may end up being more than a car company, and there is evidence that they are trying. I am not, however, going to attempt fortune telling and draw a conclusion that every keynote speech/battery day initiative will come to fruition and base a multiple around revenues or profits that may never exist. I am a conservative value investor, and I do believe my $130 mark for Tesla is still extremely liberal with a premium attached to it. The price is close enough to call it a cautious buy, with more confident bets for Tesla under $130.</p><p><i>This article is written by Brett Ashcroft Green for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Elon Musk, Bring The Pain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Elon Musk, Bring The Pain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-23 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565786-tesla-elon-musk-bring-the-pain><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDown 51% year to date, Tesla, Inc. may soon get on the radar of some value investors.The tweeting debacle is an excellent catalyst to bring the share price down from the stratosphere.Although ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565786-tesla-elon-musk-bring-the-pain\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4099":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565786-tesla-elon-musk-bring-the-pain","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293557321","content_text":"SummaryDown 51% year to date, Tesla, Inc. may soon get on the radar of some value investors.The tweeting debacle is an excellent catalyst to bring the share price down from the stratosphere.Although this was a Covid rocket stock, Tesla is by no means unprofitable and certainly sits in the driver's seat for all things EV.Xiaolu ChuTesla rocket finally coming back down to earthTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a stock that I have been heavily critical of when having discussions about whether the company is a value or not circa 2020 and 2021. The \"it's the future, bro\" arguments have fallen time and time again on my deaf ears, far too analytical and critical of numbers and ratios. Some of the projections have been outright ludicrous. Included in these assumptions are Robo-taxis and autonomous driving software.However, with the price being cut in half and earnings having quadrupled based nearly 100% on car sales over the Covid era, I'm starting to change my mind about Tesla. I still don't buy into the revenue and earnings projections outside of the electric vehicle (\"EV\") segment, but based on the EV segment alone, I'm beginning to like the numbers.I give Tesla credit for growing earnings, both GAAP and non-GAAP, sales and revenues at a faster clip than I could have ever imagined. The margins are also higher than competitors. While the growth has been impressive, the high CAGR in earnings is going from nothing to something without a ton of trailing data. With 2022 basically in the books, we are hitting that 5-year data mark where I would start to be confident in drawing evidence-based conclusions on what they have achieved.I consider Tesla a buy, although a cautious one. I would dollar cost average here and speed up the buys under $130.Nice dipseeking alpha50+% is a nice dip. Getting cut in half is not usually a situation that lasts long in Tesla shares. Normally, loyalists would step in to give some support and the hedge funds would follow suit.Something seems different this time.One positive is that this drop, taking it down close to pre-Covid prices, happens at a time when Tesla is nearly quadrupling the non-GAAP EBITDA earnings during the trailing 3 years. It is growing from just over $4 Billion to $16.3 on a TTM basis. It's possible that Elon fans were basing their valuations on how closely the CEO fit their ideal of a leader. Now that he has purchased Twitter and is expressing his ideas on the platform, that sheen is wearing off.To say the least, I am thrilled that a non-correlated event is taking the share price of a company like Tesla down a peg. These are the best of situations, as you normally only get value investment opportunities when a directly correlated negative event occurs. For instance, negative oil prices in the case of Exxon (XOM), high-interest rates killing the housing market for Toll Brothers (TOL), or a bad collateralized loan like American Express (AXP) had with the \"salad oil\" scandal.Future assumptions on how sales might go in the face of a recession could also be negative, but that item has yet to manifest.Boots on the groundIt's been my luck that I live near Giga Factory 1, I know several factory employees and have seen the positive effect that Tesla has had on the community of Northern Nevada. The first Giga Factory was set up in conjunction with Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY, OTCPK:PCRFF), sharing the factory right down the middle 50/50. The location is ideal, 3 hours from Fremont, the cars come over the Sierras in a daily stream down I-80 east, offloaded at the factory to be packed with battery cells. While Berlin, Shanghai, and Austin get all the headlines, this is the factory that most likely puts the cells in your car if you drive a Tesla.At the time, Tesla was so cool that they brought a plethora of tech-related companies from the Bay Area along with them and had the largest industrial park in the world sold out within a couple of years of their arrival. The cool kid panache did more than drive up the stock price, it attracted other large companies on their coattails like a magnet. Tesla also offered stock options and compensation to every factory worker from the bottom to the top. Many a new home down payment was made by liquidating Tesla stock. Many a backyard was regrettably landscaped with Tesla stock as well. I say regrettably because the share price would often go on to double or triple thereafter, making your $25,000 brick-lay job a potential profit loss of $100 grand or more.This is simply one man's Phil Fisher Scuttlebutt observation. Employees give me feedback that Tesla is running a quality operation. Since the entire operation is built around EVs to start, they don't need to reconfigure existing internal combustion engine (\"ICE\") operations to fit the EV product line. They have streamlined the operation a ton from the inception of Giga 1 to current, automating more and more lines as they go along. I imagine the automation advances help to maintain and increase their margins. The advances from Giga 1 have helped and will help further Giga factories to start from a more advanced position.Twitter timeThen came October, and Musk closed on the Twitter deal:yahoo financeFrom late September when the deal was about to close until now, the stock has shed most of that 50% in this short time frame. This is occurring due to a non-Tesla correlated event, other than the assumption that Tesla's captain is asleep at the wheel. With this, we begin to realize that Tesla on its own merits was overpriced, but Musk added a huge premium. That premium may be gone now, although his intelligence remain as IP with the company. The Tesla price is now beginning to resemble a stock traded on fundamentals rather than blind optimism.ValueFor growth companies that take a lot of write-offs and depreciation, I like to look under the hood at the non-GAAP earnings equation until a company scales back its growth initiatives. Currently, we have TTM GAAP earnings at a tad over $11 Billion and non-GAAP EBITDA TTM at $16.348 Billion, or roughly 33% higher.yahoo financeLooking at 2018 on the far right side to TTM on the left, we see a CAGR in EBITDA of 57.366%. That's a hot number, and one of the primary catalysts in the share price ascension. When I say \"hot,\", I also mean non-sustainable in the long run. Beating 25% per year CAGR on any earnings line doesn't happen for long periods. Thus, taking Peter Lynch's advice, I like to max out my growth multiple at 25% (25 X) per annum even if a company is exceeding that CAGR in the near term. With 3.099 Billion shares outstanding, that currently gives us an EBITDA per share of $5.25, the number I will use as my multiplicand. To wind up at the crosshairs of a PEG ratio of 1 or less on an EBITDA basis assuming a max growth rate of 25%, I will simply use 25 as my multiplier times $5.25. This spits out a fair value of $131.25. Close, but not quite where I want it yet.The balance sheetyahoo financeTesla is fairly well capitalized with $21.11 Billion in cash and cash equivalents. With only $5.87 Billion in debt, the debt-to-equity ratio is only 14.28%. These numbers are more akin to tech versus vehicle companies where even the most conservative companies like Toyota Motors (TM) are still levered up over 100%. The least conservative, like Ford (F), can be levered up over 300% if you include their capital markets arms that extend syndicated debt to the consumer. Therefore, in this sense, I will certainly agree that the balance sheet of Tesla does resemble a tech company because they have been able to grow through equity raises due to the popularity of the company. Other vehicle manufacturers do not have that luxury. While the auto sector will be sensitive to interest rates for both consumer financing and financing operations, at least Tesla does not have to worry much about their company side of the equation.Balance sheet trendsseeking alphaA positive trend observation I always like to borrow from Peter Lynch is which direction are current assets and debt going. Ideally, current assets should be on the uptrend and debt, especially long-term debt on the downtrend. In Tesla's case, current assets have increased from $8.3 Billion 5 years ago to $35.9 Billion today, a CAGR of 34%. That is a positive trend indeed.yahoo financeWe also can observe total debt, long term excluding current debt, down almost 50%. While current debt is up, that is mainly a number that floats upwards with sales volume funding product that comes off the line, centered around accounts payable to suppliers as demand increases. The long-term debt number is certainly the focus and is trending in the right direction as well.Plant growthAnother Tesla bull argument is that the massive expansion in Giga factory growth is going to lead to amazing earnings growth potential and car sales volume that will exceed their competition. Truth is, they will certainly be cash incinerators for a good while, and they are needed to simply compete with other manufacturers that already have plants all over the world. Volume should not be the focus, but rather efficiencies and margins.Everyone knows the vehicle production/sold comparison between Tesla and the other auto producers, and I believe that this is more a game of catchup rather than racing ahead. If they can produce half as many cars as the top competitors but continue to automate more and more operations, leading to double the margins, that would be a win. With a gross profit margin of 25% and a return on invested capital of 15%, this is another tech-like resemblance that I give Tesla points for. Replicating this all over the world could make Tesla a profit leader even with less sales volume.Industry trendsThe inflation reduction act passed in August should be a boon for all EV auto makers, with Tesla being a main beneficiary. The $7,500 in tax credits for EV buyers should help maintain at least flat revenue if the economy takes a dive. I see it as a backstop if 2023 turns out to be as rough a year as many economists are making it out to be. Wells Fargo (WFC) expects the year to be a recession, recovery, and then a rebound by the end of the year. A recessionary environment entering 2023 should give us a greater chance to buy Tesla at a discount for possibly the first two quarters of the year. A FED pivot in the summer heading into election season will probably send tech and growth stocks bouncing well off the bottoms.Tesla still garners almost 100% of its profits from the sales of vehicles, so I will continue to put Tesla squarely in the vehicle manufacturer segment versus energy storage.evadoption.comTesla is way ahead in the U.S. market for 2022, controlling more than 50% of the EV market. The total representation of vehicle sales in the U.S. is still only 1.13%, therefore, there's still a lot of room to grow. Best case scenario is Tesla approaches Toyota/Ford levels at 10+% market share. I personally wouldn't get any more optimistic than that, but with Tesla's superior margins, that would be enough to satisfy my appetite.CatalystsThe most logical catalysts coming to fruition are the Semi-truck deliveries. With the initial orders delivered to Pepsi at the beginning of December, this will be the main item that I have my eye on. With Austin up and running, it will be fascinating to see if the trucks actually catch on and garner demand. The logistics of charging large vehicles with huge battery capacities will be the challenge. The installation of mega chargers is the key to adoption. Which grids can handle them and how many can they get installed along major transport routes before the end of 2023 is the question. All these are items that, if pulled off successfully, should be major catalysts for Tesla.RisksRisks are threefold. The continued disliking of Elon Musk by the media, poor execution in the Semi-truck segment, and a recession that causes sales volume to dip below a point at which tax credits could backstop them. If the recession turns out to be milder than thought and China stays open from Covid lockdowns, sales volume might stay on track to increase. However, in a year running up to an election and the possibility for many divisive tweets, don't be surprised if Musk is able to create a share discount all by himself even if all other items execute.ConclusionI would never look at a vehicle company on a non-GAAP performance basis, and usually revert to the most conservative metric of all, the Graham Number, to incorporate their book value. Almost all of Tesla's competitors have been around for decades, and their businesses and earnings growth resemble that. Tesla's income statement and balance sheet both follow tech-related trends at this point, so I am giving Tesla quite a premium to what I would normally pay for a car company.Tesla may end up being more than a car company, and there is evidence that they are trying. I am not, however, going to attempt fortune telling and draw a conclusion that every keynote speech/battery day initiative will come to fruition and base a multiple around revenues or profits that may never exist. I am a conservative value investor, and I do believe my $130 mark for Tesla is still extremely liberal with a premium attached to it. The price is close enough to call it a cautious buy, with more confident bets for Tesla under $130.This article is written by Brett Ashcroft Green for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815568184,"gmtCreate":1630698210748,"gmtModify":1630698210748,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小米不抢怎能无敌天下！一定要加强的加枪￥","listText":"小米不抢怎能无敌天下！一定要加强的加枪￥","text":"小米不抢怎能无敌天下！一定要加强的加枪￥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815568184","repostId":"1189577781","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189577781","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630666943,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189577781?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 19:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米公关总经理回应雷军“减持3亿股”：系可统计份额降低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189577781","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"小米集团公关部总经理王化就雷军今日卖出逾3亿股小米股份，通过其个人微博回应称：“雷军不再控制雷军基金会导致可统计份额降低，并非减持，这家基金会是一家具有公共性质的慈善机构，而雷军根据香港当地条例终止对","content":"<p>小米集团公关部总经理王化就雷军今日卖出逾3亿股小米股份，通过其个人微博回应称：“雷军不再控制雷军基金会导致可统计份额降低，并非减持，这家基金会是一家具有公共性质的慈善机构，而雷军根据香港当地条例终止对基金会的控制”。据小米集团7月16日发布的一则公告，雷军将总计约6.16亿B类小米集团股份，捐赠给了小米基金会和雷军基金会，两家基金会各自获得3.08亿股份，这笔款项将用于公益项目。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adacf20bb76f3874c835995c0109d35a\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"727\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米公关总经理回应雷军“减持3亿股”：系可统计份额降低</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米公关总经理回应雷军“减持3亿股”：系可统计份额降低\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-03 19:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>小米集团公关部总经理王化就雷军今日卖出逾3亿股小米股份，通过其个人微博回应称：“雷军不再控制雷军基金会导致可统计份额降低，并非减持，这家基金会是一家具有公共性质的慈善机构，而雷军根据香港当地条例终止对基金会的控制”。据小米集团7月16日发布的一则公告，雷军将总计约6.16亿B类小米集团股份，捐赠给了小米基金会和雷军基金会，两家基金会各自获得3.08亿股份，这笔款项将用于公益项目。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adacf20bb76f3874c835995c0109d35a\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"727\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea2b9ab8a046974039715aed46d9985","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189577781","content_text":"小米集团公关部总经理王化就雷军今日卖出逾3亿股小米股份，通过其个人微博回应称：“雷军不再控制雷军基金会导致可统计份额降低，并非减持，这家基金会是一家具有公共性质的慈善机构，而雷军根据香港当地条例终止对基金会的控制”。据小米集团7月16日发布的一则公告，雷军将总计约6.16亿B类小米集团股份，捐赠给了小米基金会和雷军基金会，两家基金会各自获得3.08亿股份，这笔款项将用于公益项目。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123758223,"gmtCreate":1624440717962,"gmtModify":1624440717962,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"每日优鲜挺方便快捷，年轻人很青睐。服务大众，不负众望！","listText":"每日优鲜挺方便快捷，年轻人很青睐。服务大众，不负众望！","text":"每日优鲜挺方便快捷，年轻人很青睐。服务大众，不负众望！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0ea72e04b297a7548cb87eedb555322","width":"720","height":"1520"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123758223","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184838258,"gmtCreate":1623701592474,"gmtModify":1623701592474,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"需要的就能找到，入手没商量好💪👍📢","listText":"需要的就能找到，入手没商量好💪👍📢","text":"需要的就能找到，入手没商量好💪👍📢","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6da4ae6218d74982647dc559bd083dae","width":"720","height":"1520"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184838258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":182249700,"gmtCreate":1623582170300,"gmtModify":1623582170300,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"二手可能很称心呵呵😄一定要买","listText":"二手可能很称心呵呵😄一定要买","text":"二手可能很称心呵呵😄一定要买","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/323267d45ef09b96a92916438c50c93f","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182249700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318271204765888,"gmtCreate":1718741473720,"gmtModify":1718746520908,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"title":"竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王","htmlText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8yaDaS\">竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8yaDaS\">竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情：竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王 快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f22c491ee8ae08f0d36ded0795f1fe33"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318271204765888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304531226423488,"gmtCreate":1715383086154,"gmtModify":1715383088186,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"基因武器[喷血]&nbsp;[生病]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;[默哀]&nbsp;","listText":"基因武器[喷血]&nbsp;[生病]&nbsp;[梭哈]&nbsp;[默哀]&nbsp;","text":"基因武器[喷血] [生病] [梭哈] [默哀]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304531226423488","repostId":"2434188644","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2434188644","pubTimestamp":1715325808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2434188644?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-10 15:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药与赛诺菲就新冠疫苗达成数十亿美元合作","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2434188644","media":"智通财经","summary":"5月10日，$诺瓦瓦克斯医药$周五宣布，与法国制药巨头$赛诺菲$达成了一项价值数十亿美元的合作协议。此外，诺瓦瓦克斯医药还将从赛诺菲销售的新冠疫苗以及针对冠状病毒和流感的组合疫苗中获得特许权使用费。根据协议条款，诺瓦瓦克斯医药将在今年剩余时间内主导其新冠疫苗的商业化，并计划于2025年将大部分责任移交给赛诺菲。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月10日，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">诺瓦瓦克斯医药</a>盘前暴涨到停不下来，截至发稿涨幅超200%！</strong>诺瓦瓦克斯医药周五宣布，与法国制药巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNY\">赛诺菲</a>达成了一项价值数十亿美元的合作协议。根据协议，双方将从明年开始联合商业化诺瓦瓦克斯医药的新冠疫苗，并共同开发针对冠状病毒和流感的组合疫苗。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcbbd094d7336d45ddf2c7feeb823779\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"126\"/></p><p>诺瓦瓦克斯医药首席执行官约翰·雅各布斯(John Jacobs)表示，这项许可协议将有助于公司解除此前发布的“持续经营”警告，该警告是由于市场对其持续运营能力存疑而于2023年2月首次发布的。</p><p>对于这家一直在努力的疫苗制造商来说，此次合作标志着一个重要的转折点，其基于蛋白质的新冠疫苗被卫生官员视为对那些不愿接种信使RNA疫苗人群的宝贵替代选择。</p><p>在该合作协议中，赛诺菲将利用诺瓦瓦克斯医药的新冠疫苗和旗舰疫苗技术Matrix-M佐剂来开发新的疫苗产品。作为交易的一部分，赛诺菲将向诺瓦瓦克斯医药支付5亿美元的预付款，并在达成开发、监管和上市里程碑时支付高达7亿美元的额外款项。这笔交易的总价值大约是诺瓦瓦克斯医药目前市值的两倍。</p><p>此外，诺瓦瓦克斯医药还将从赛诺菲销售的新冠疫苗以及针对冠状病毒和流感的组合疫苗中获得特许权使用费。对于赛诺菲使用Matrix-M佐剂开发的每种产品，诺瓦瓦克斯医药还有权获得高达2亿美元的额外启动和销售里程碑付款以及特许权使用费。赛诺菲还将持有诺瓦瓦克斯医药不到5%的股份。</p><p>雅各布斯表示，这项交易将为诺瓦瓦克斯医药带来充足的资本，使其能够持续经营，并有机会将战略更多地转向其最擅长的领域，为所有利益相关者，包括股东，创造更多价值。</p><p>此外，该交易还将支持公司实现其疫苗技术平台改善全球公共卫生的使命，这是单凭公司自身资源难以实现的。</p><p>根据协议条款，诺瓦瓦克斯医药将在今年剩余时间内主导其新冠疫苗的商业化，并计划于2025年将大部分责任移交给赛诺菲。赛诺菲不会参与监督与诺瓦瓦克斯医药现有合作协议的国家的商业化，这些国家包括印度、日本和韩国，以及与该公司签订了新冠疫苗购买协议的国家。</p><p>雅各布斯认为，赛诺菲作为一家大型制药公司，其参与将增加诺瓦瓦克斯医药新冠疫苗的市场份额和可见度，从而扩大患者获取疫苗的机会。此外，赛诺菲还将负责开发和商业化任何包含其流感疫苗和诺瓦瓦克斯医药新冠疫苗的组合产品。</p><p>雅各布斯强调：“通过与赛诺菲这样的全球领先企业合作，我们相信这将大大增加我们更快推出多种新疫苗的机会。”</p><p>除了合作协议，诺瓦瓦克斯医药还计划在今年晚些时候启动针对新冠病毒和流感的联合疫苗以及独立流感疫苗的后期试验。</p><p>此前，公司曾表示试验将仅包括联合疫苗。雅各布斯表示，如果试验成功，公司将不仅拥有一种潜在的可许可疫苗，而且还将开辟自身的有机产品线。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>诺瓦瓦克斯医药与赛诺菲就新冠疫苗达成数十亿美元合作</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n诺瓦瓦克斯医药与赛诺菲就新冠疫苗达成数十亿美元合作\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-10 15:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1119740.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月10日，诺瓦瓦克斯医药盘前暴涨到停不下来，截至发稿涨幅超200%！诺瓦瓦克斯医药周五宣布，与法国制药巨头赛诺菲达成了一项价值数十亿美元的合作协议。根据协议，双方将从明年开始联合商业化诺瓦瓦克斯医药的新冠疫苗，并共同开发针对冠状病毒和流感的组合疫苗。诺瓦瓦克斯医药首席执行官约翰·雅各布斯(John Jacobs)表示，这项许可协议将有助于公司解除此前发布的“持续经营”警告，该警告是由于市场对其...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1119740.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85675909dc6c67ee0181339c18bcfdff","relate_stocks":{"SNY":"赛诺菲安万特","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1119740.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2434188644","content_text":"5月10日，诺瓦瓦克斯医药盘前暴涨到停不下来，截至发稿涨幅超200%！诺瓦瓦克斯医药周五宣布，与法国制药巨头赛诺菲达成了一项价值数十亿美元的合作协议。根据协议，双方将从明年开始联合商业化诺瓦瓦克斯医药的新冠疫苗，并共同开发针对冠状病毒和流感的组合疫苗。诺瓦瓦克斯医药首席执行官约翰·雅各布斯(John Jacobs)表示，这项许可协议将有助于公司解除此前发布的“持续经营”警告，该警告是由于市场对其持续运营能力存疑而于2023年2月首次发布的。对于这家一直在努力的疫苗制造商来说，此次合作标志着一个重要的转折点，其基于蛋白质的新冠疫苗被卫生官员视为对那些不愿接种信使RNA疫苗人群的宝贵替代选择。在该合作协议中，赛诺菲将利用诺瓦瓦克斯医药的新冠疫苗和旗舰疫苗技术Matrix-M佐剂来开发新的疫苗产品。作为交易的一部分，赛诺菲将向诺瓦瓦克斯医药支付5亿美元的预付款，并在达成开发、监管和上市里程碑时支付高达7亿美元的额外款项。这笔交易的总价值大约是诺瓦瓦克斯医药目前市值的两倍。此外，诺瓦瓦克斯医药还将从赛诺菲销售的新冠疫苗以及针对冠状病毒和流感的组合疫苗中获得特许权使用费。对于赛诺菲使用Matrix-M佐剂开发的每种产品，诺瓦瓦克斯医药还有权获得高达2亿美元的额外启动和销售里程碑付款以及特许权使用费。赛诺菲还将持有诺瓦瓦克斯医药不到5%的股份。雅各布斯表示，这项交易将为诺瓦瓦克斯医药带来充足的资本，使其能够持续经营，并有机会将战略更多地转向其最擅长的领域，为所有利益相关者，包括股东，创造更多价值。此外，该交易还将支持公司实现其疫苗技术平台改善全球公共卫生的使命，这是单凭公司自身资源难以实现的。根据协议条款，诺瓦瓦克斯医药将在今年剩余时间内主导其新冠疫苗的商业化，并计划于2025年将大部分责任移交给赛诺菲。赛诺菲不会参与监督与诺瓦瓦克斯医药现有合作协议的国家的商业化，这些国家包括印度、日本和韩国，以及与该公司签订了新冠疫苗购买协议的国家。雅各布斯认为，赛诺菲作为一家大型制药公司，其参与将增加诺瓦瓦克斯医药新冠疫苗的市场份额和可见度，从而扩大患者获取疫苗的机会。此外，赛诺菲还将负责开发和商业化任何包含其流感疫苗和诺瓦瓦克斯医药新冠疫苗的组合产品。雅各布斯强调：“通过与赛诺菲这样的全球领先企业合作，我们相信这将大大增加我们更快推出多种新疫苗的机会。”除了合作协议，诺瓦瓦克斯医药还计划在今年晚些时候启动针对新冠病毒和流感的联合疫苗以及独立流感疫苗的后期试验。此前，公司曾表示试验将仅包括联合疫苗。雅各布斯表示，如果试验成功，公司将不仅拥有一种潜在的可许可疫苗，而且还将开辟自身的有机产品线。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":244767905665208,"gmtCreate":1700772335310,"gmtModify":1700772338157,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"感恩的心，感谢有你，感恩每一个陪伴的你我他！","listText":"感恩的心，感谢有你，感恩每一个陪伴的你我他！","text":"感恩的心，感谢有你，感恩每一个陪伴的你我他！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/244767905665208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659558486,"gmtCreate":1680158863445,"gmtModify":1680158865145,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华为一冒头，立刻就要按回去，真真切切实实在在的全维度打压。呵呵！","listText":"华为一冒头，立刻就要按回去，真真切切实实在在的全维度打压。呵呵！","text":"华为一冒头，立刻就要按回去，真真切切实实在在的全维度打压。呵呵！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659558486","repostId":"2323775797","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815561850,"gmtCreate":1630697863070,"gmtModify":1630697863070,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"虚拟现实&nbsp; 元宇宙&nbsp; 全真教教主","listText":"虚拟现实&nbsp; 元宇宙&nbsp; 全真教教主","text":"虚拟现实 元宇宙 全真教教主","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815561850","repostId":"2164187883","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2164187883","pubTimestamp":1630650386,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164187883?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 14:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"马化腾说的“全真互联网”，到底是什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164187883","media":"唐韧","summary":"我们又被概念植入了？","content":"<p>最近有一个概念比较火，叫「元宇宙」。</p>\n<p>马化腾在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>内部刊物上写了这么一段话也在圈内传开了：<b>一个令人兴奋的机会正在到来，移动互联网十年发展，即将迎来下一波升级，我们称之为“全真互联网”</b>。</p>\n<p>元宇宙、全真互联网，这些新概念到底是什么？</p>\n<p>移动互联网十年过去，下一次的新机会又在哪？是元宇宙么、是全真互联网么？还是说，我们又被概念植入了？</p>\n<p>先说元宇宙。</p>\n<p>其实要说元宇宙，一定离不开一款叫「Roblox」的产品。这是一款国外的 3D 游戏社区，国内版本由腾讯代理，取名叫「罗布乐思」。</p>\n<p>「Roblox」今年 3 月在美国上市，当天股价暴涨 54%，市值超过了 400 亿美元。</p>\n<p>简单说，这款产品是一个可以支持开发者利用平台工具自由开发并发布游戏的社区。本质上，这是一个游戏社区平台。</p>\n<p>我下载了腾讯代理的「罗布乐思」并简单体验了一下，说实话，略显失望。</p>\n<p>首先，这就是一个 UGC 游戏社区，里面的游戏都是第三方开发者自己基于平台工具设计并开发的，各种类型都有，但基本都是小游戏。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dce2261e361dac7735ca2248c33c1e22\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1652\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>其次，游戏画面非常粗糙，可能跟产品画风有关，也可能跟开发者的美术设计有关。</p>\n<p>总之，有点像以前网吧里的那种休闲小游戏。</p>\n<p>游戏虽然也提供了同时在线功能，你能和其他玩家一起玩耍，但游戏本身的趣味性和可玩性并不高。</p>\n<p>至少，从我目前体验的几款来看，根本没有玩下去的动力。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4939fbb151025308ed39529cb6fa29f5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在游戏里，每一个用户都能生成一个属于自己的虚拟形象，支持自定义，但有的装扮需要付费。</p>\n<p>同时，虚拟形象的像素感特别强，谈不上好看。</p>\n<p>你可以使用这个虚拟形象参与各种游戏，代表了你在这个虚拟世界的唯一身份。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d67fdd28634218a41adba926e609bfa9\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"1634\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>体验到这里，我还是没感觉到这跟元宇宙有什么关系。或者说，从这款产品中压根看不出什么是元宇宙。</p>\n<p>于是，我又查了一些关于「Roblox」以及元宇宙的资料，发现大家口中的元宇宙以及实际产品还是存在比较大的区别。</p>\n<p>按照我的理解，元宇宙是一种虚拟的存在，用户可以在这个虚拟世界里拥有身份、社交关系、经济活动等等，甚至可以实现虚拟世界的购物、工作以及赚钱。</p>\n<p>要实现这一点，那么元宇宙无疑就是一款游戏。</p>\n<p>运用 AR 和 VR 技术让用户身临其境，通过 5G&nbsp;技术让用户零延时体验，使用云计算和区块链技术让虚拟身份和财产得到唯一确权。</p>\n<p>所以，按通俗的理解，<b>元宇宙是老游戏和新技术的一种结合。</b></p>\n<p>因为要实现上面那些场景，其实现在很多游戏都可以做到，甚至比这些号称元宇宙的产品做得还好。</p>\n<p>但是有一个区别，这些游戏都是以用户单一视角呈现的，是一种视觉化的表现。</p>\n<p>而对于元宇宙来说，它会对现实的复刻要求更高，在延时性、同步性、真实性的要求上也更高。</p>\n<p>要知道，真实世界的发生都是实时进行的。</p>\n<p>你在家里看电视的同时，世界上任何一个地点同时也在发生着很多不同的事，而且任何一件可能都会跟你产生关系。</p>\n<p>在传统游戏里，用户只需要和自身周围小范围的事物接触。</p>\n<p>但放在元宇宙里，他可能立马就到了世界的任何地方，看到及经历那里正在发生的最真实的事。</p>\n<p>这些，都对「算力」提出了很高的要求。</p>\n<p>从这个角度来说，现有的技术还不足以支撑理想中元宇宙的形态。或者说，像「Roblox」还只是元宇宙的最初形态。</p>\n<p>概念是有了，想象也有了，接下来就看怎么实现了。</p>\n<p>我的理解不一定对，但对于捆绑新技术的老游戏，至少我现在还看不出它到底有什么颠覆性的不一样。</p>\n<p>说完元宇宙，再聊聊「全真互联网」。</p>\n<p>其实在我看来，小马哥说的这个全真互联网应该是元宇宙的高级形态，将现实中的一切虚拟化，包括人、物、关系、设备、信息、金钱等等。</p>\n<p>试想一下，未来你会用一个虚拟身份进入一个虚拟世界，你可以在里面工作赚钱，也可以在里面交朋友，甚至可以购买自己喜欢的衣服或车子，但这些都需要你自己去一点一点积累。</p>\n<p>除此之外，你还可以在里面娱乐，刷视频、看新闻、玩游戏，但这一切都是对于那个虚拟世界的反馈。</p>\n<p>也就是说，你刷的是发生在虚拟世界的新闻，看到的是虚拟世界的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>，你的社交关系也都是虚拟世界的人。</p>\n<p>也就是说，<b>现在互联网的一切产品都可以再次放入这个全真互联网。</b></p>\n<p>而我们获得的新体验，就是在之前提到的那些新技术支持下，对于现实世界的高度还原。</p>\n<p>也可以说，<b>我们每个人都有重新活一次并塑造一个理想中自己和社会的机会。</b></p>\n<p>现在看这些，似乎有点缥缈且不落地。但想象力终归是好的，我们现在习以为常的很多东西都是由当年的想象力发展而来。</p>\n<p>包括腾讯、字节跳动、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>等巨头公司都在入局元宇宙，这也说明这确实是一个很多人在关注的新领域。</p>\n<p>我们现在可以看不懂，也可以不理解，但却无法忽视它。</p>\n<p>我们可以说这又是新瓶装旧酒，但只要变数还在，只要技术和产品还在继续发展，那总能看到一些新东西的出现。</p>\n<p>时代终归是要发展的，我们如今的看不懂，或许也会成为日后的习以为常。</p>\n<p>所以，暂时抱有一些开放的心态，给这些新东西一些生长的时间。</p>\n<p>来日方长，再见分晓。</p>\n<h3>安可时刻</h3>\n<p>我记得十年前移动互联网刚出来的时候，很多人就在说云计算是未来。可当时很多人说云计算不就是集中管理的机房么？</p>\n<p>可现在看，有哪家公司能离开云计算，有哪家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>没有享受到来自 AWS 和阿里云的便利性？</p>\n<p>对于一款产品来说，它是什么不重要，重要的是，它会成为什么。</p>","source":"lsy1594202180751","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>马化腾说的“全真互联网”，到底是什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马化腾说的“全真互联网”，到底是什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 14:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1382380533939330><strong>唐韧</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近有一个概念比较火，叫「元宇宙」。\n马化腾在腾讯内部刊物上写了这么一段话也在圈内传开了：一个令人兴奋的机会正在到来，移动互联网十年发展，即将迎来下一波升级，我们称之为“全真互联网”。\n元宇宙、全真互联网，这些新概念到底是什么？\n移动互联网十年过去，下一次的新机会又在哪？是元宇宙么、是全真互联网么？还是说，我们又被概念植入了？\n先说元宇宙。\n其实要说元宇宙，一定离不开一款叫「Roblox」的产品。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1382380533939330\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021510365d0fb5b88cf0401c9450d576","relate_stocks":{"160636":"互联网","00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1382380533939330","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164187883","content_text":"最近有一个概念比较火，叫「元宇宙」。\n马化腾在腾讯内部刊物上写了这么一段话也在圈内传开了：一个令人兴奋的机会正在到来，移动互联网十年发展，即将迎来下一波升级，我们称之为“全真互联网”。\n元宇宙、全真互联网，这些新概念到底是什么？\n移动互联网十年过去，下一次的新机会又在哪？是元宇宙么、是全真互联网么？还是说，我们又被概念植入了？\n先说元宇宙。\n其实要说元宇宙，一定离不开一款叫「Roblox」的产品。这是一款国外的 3D 游戏社区，国内版本由腾讯代理，取名叫「罗布乐思」。\n「Roblox」今年 3 月在美国上市，当天股价暴涨 54%，市值超过了 400 亿美元。\n简单说，这款产品是一个可以支持开发者利用平台工具自由开发并发布游戏的社区。本质上，这是一个游戏社区平台。\n我下载了腾讯代理的「罗布乐思」并简单体验了一下，说实话，略显失望。\n首先，这就是一个 UGC 游戏社区，里面的游戏都是第三方开发者自己基于平台工具设计并开发的，各种类型都有，但基本都是小游戏。\n\n其次，游戏画面非常粗糙，可能跟产品画风有关，也可能跟开发者的美术设计有关。\n总之，有点像以前网吧里的那种休闲小游戏。\n游戏虽然也提供了同时在线功能，你能和其他玩家一起玩耍，但游戏本身的趣味性和可玩性并不高。\n至少，从我目前体验的几款来看，根本没有玩下去的动力。\n\n在游戏里，每一个用户都能生成一个属于自己的虚拟形象，支持自定义，但有的装扮需要付费。\n同时，虚拟形象的像素感特别强，谈不上好看。\n你可以使用这个虚拟形象参与各种游戏，代表了你在这个虚拟世界的唯一身份。\n\n体验到这里，我还是没感觉到这跟元宇宙有什么关系。或者说，从这款产品中压根看不出什么是元宇宙。\n于是，我又查了一些关于「Roblox」以及元宇宙的资料，发现大家口中的元宇宙以及实际产品还是存在比较大的区别。\n按照我的理解，元宇宙是一种虚拟的存在，用户可以在这个虚拟世界里拥有身份、社交关系、经济活动等等，甚至可以实现虚拟世界的购物、工作以及赚钱。\n要实现这一点，那么元宇宙无疑就是一款游戏。\n运用 AR 和 VR 技术让用户身临其境，通过 5G 技术让用户零延时体验，使用云计算和区块链技术让虚拟身份和财产得到唯一确权。\n所以，按通俗的理解，元宇宙是老游戏和新技术的一种结合。\n因为要实现上面那些场景，其实现在很多游戏都可以做到，甚至比这些号称元宇宙的产品做得还好。\n但是有一个区别，这些游戏都是以用户单一视角呈现的，是一种视觉化的表现。\n而对于元宇宙来说，它会对现实的复刻要求更高，在延时性、同步性、真实性的要求上也更高。\n要知道，真实世界的发生都是实时进行的。\n你在家里看电视的同时，世界上任何一个地点同时也在发生着很多不同的事，而且任何一件可能都会跟你产生关系。\n在传统游戏里，用户只需要和自身周围小范围的事物接触。\n但放在元宇宙里，他可能立马就到了世界的任何地方，看到及经历那里正在发生的最真实的事。\n这些，都对「算力」提出了很高的要求。\n从这个角度来说，现有的技术还不足以支撑理想中元宇宙的形态。或者说，像「Roblox」还只是元宇宙的最初形态。\n概念是有了，想象也有了，接下来就看怎么实现了。\n我的理解不一定对，但对于捆绑新技术的老游戏，至少我现在还看不出它到底有什么颠覆性的不一样。\n说完元宇宙，再聊聊「全真互联网」。\n其实在我看来，小马哥说的这个全真互联网应该是元宇宙的高级形态，将现实中的一切虚拟化，包括人、物、关系、设备、信息、金钱等等。\n试想一下，未来你会用一个虚拟身份进入一个虚拟世界，你可以在里面工作赚钱，也可以在里面交朋友，甚至可以购买自己喜欢的衣服或车子，但这些都需要你自己去一点一点积累。\n除此之外，你还可以在里面娱乐，刷视频、看新闻、玩游戏，但这一切都是对于那个虚拟世界的反馈。\n也就是说，你刷的是发生在虚拟世界的新闻，看到的是虚拟世界的抖音，你的社交关系也都是虚拟世界的人。\n也就是说，现在互联网的一切产品都可以再次放入这个全真互联网。\n而我们获得的新体验，就是在之前提到的那些新技术支持下，对于现实世界的高度还原。\n也可以说，我们每个人都有重新活一次并塑造一个理想中自己和社会的机会。\n现在看这些，似乎有点缥缈且不落地。但想象力终归是好的，我们现在习以为常的很多东西都是由当年的想象力发展而来。\n包括腾讯、字节跳动、Facebook、微软等巨头公司都在入局元宇宙，这也说明这确实是一个很多人在关注的新领域。\n我们现在可以看不懂，也可以不理解，但却无法忽视它。\n我们可以说这又是新瓶装旧酒，但只要变数还在，只要技术和产品还在继续发展，那总能看到一些新东西的出现。\n时代终归是要发展的，我们如今的看不懂，或许也会成为日后的习以为常。\n所以，暂时抱有一些开放的心态，给这些新东西一些生长的时间。\n来日方长，再见分晓。\n安可时刻\n我记得十年前移动互联网刚出来的时候，很多人就在说云计算是未来。可当时很多人说云计算不就是集中管理的机房么？\n可现在看，有哪家公司能离开云计算，有哪家创业公司没有享受到来自 AWS 和阿里云的便利性？\n对于一款产品来说，它是什么不重要，重要的是，它会成为什么。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121166559,"gmtCreate":1624456909771,"gmtModify":1624456909771,"author":{"id":"3581646110825350","authorId":"3581646110825350","name":"haihaidong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39e839ab1c6be445345eaa8b4a8ba03","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581646110825350","authorIdStr":"3581646110825350"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大家有关注这只股票的吗？参谋参谋，分析分析怎么样[握手]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","listText":"大家有关注这只股票的吗？参谋参谋，分析分析怎么样[握手]&nbsp;[爱心]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","text":"大家有关注这只股票的吗？参谋参谋，分析分析怎么样[握手] [爱心] [美金]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0ca4cdaf35e1bb2ca945e8dff33f1d","width":"720","height":"2059"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b187f023252c1570b227866e657ac8d6","width":"720","height":"1520"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf86afd209ae3a87df972d396155ef0d","width":"1520","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121166559","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}