峭壁小松的个人主页 - 老虎社区

峭壁小松

峭壁小松

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IP属地：陕西

33关注

7粉丝

2主题

0勋章

11-15

$TIGR 20241018 6.0 CALL$

10-11

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 又有小道消息了？

06-10

大家都越跌越买，怎么还会跌？？

抱歉，原内容已删除

05-29

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 今天目标90%

05-29

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 今天夜盘的这波操作真是寒了散户们的心啊，还有那些评论区带风向的骗子们，说坚持到不退市空头就可能被挤压。结果等散户一直拿着坚持到了不退市，庄家一天等不了了，迫不及待的撤出。做着过河拆桥的勾当

05-28

勇气可嘉

抱歉，原内容已删除

05-18

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 真的好猛啊，掉下去那么多一会就拉起来了，看来破10没一点问题[开心]

05-18

$FFIE 20240621 4.0 CALL$

05-17

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 拉得太快了，大家都觉得现阶段会涨，跟牛市开始一段时间后的心态一样，对挤压空头是个好的开始

05-16

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 啥情况，为啥一停牌后就下跌这么多

05-15

$AMC院线(AMC)$ 昨天高开低走后，让散户们的心凉了吗[笑哭]

05-10

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看盘前走势，晚上可能要大涨了，但是还是不敢买call

05-06

昙花一现，还会跌回来的

05-01

$NQ100指数主连 2406(NQmain)$ 看目前的走势，又是下跌的一晚

04-24

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天咋这么弱呢

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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又有小道消息了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358894544338960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315348118331632,"gmtCreate":1718020120373,"gmtModify":1718020122349,"author":{"id":"3581249944832978","authorId":"3581249944832978","name":"峭壁小松","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a82292b0c9d85296e971665c14683","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581249944832978","authorIdStr":"3581249944832978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大家都越跌越买，怎么还会跌？？","listText":"大家都越跌越买，怎么还会跌？？","text":"大家都越跌越买，怎么还会跌？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315348118331632","repostId":"2442856436","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311192044249104,"gmtCreate":1716994535695,"gmtModify":1716994536843,"author":{"id":"3581249944832978","authorId":"3581249944832978","name":"峭壁小松","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a82292b0c9d85296e971665c14683","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581249944832978","authorIdStr":"3581249944832978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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昨天高开低走后，让散户们的心凉了吗[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306121650724928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3540509684886484","authorId":"3540509684886484","name":"拜登怂包","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/735fdbe85c4614a2fa6d8f12fe9445ad","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3540509684886484","idStr":"3540509684886484"},"content":"今天低开高走[笑哭]","text":"今天低开高走[笑哭]","html":"今天低开高走[笑哭]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358894544338960,"gmtCreate":1728661220177,"gmtModify":1728661224480,"author":{"id":"3581249944832978","authorId":"3581249944832978","name":"峭壁小松","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a82292b0c9d85296e971665c14683","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581249944832978","idStr":"3581249944832978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 又有小道消息了？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 又有小道消息了？","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 又有小道消息了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358894544338960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306866855809312,"gmtCreate":1715953345047,"gmtModify":1715953349088,"author":{"id":"3581249944832978","authorId":"3581249944832978","name":"峭壁小松","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a82292b0c9d85296e971665c14683","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581249944832978","idStr":"3581249944832978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a>拉得太快了，大家都觉得现阶段会涨，跟牛市开始一段时间后的心态一样，对挤压空头是个好的开始","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a>拉得太快了，大家都觉得现阶段会涨，跟牛市开始一段时间后的心态一样，对挤压空头是个好的开始","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 拉得太快了，大家都觉得现阶段会涨，跟牛市开始一段时间后的心态一样，对挤压空头是个好的开始","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306866855809312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315348118331632,"gmtCreate":1718020120373,"gmtModify":1718020122349,"author":{"id":"3581249944832978","authorId":"3581249944832978","name":"峭壁小松","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a82292b0c9d85296e971665c14683","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581249944832978","idStr":"3581249944832978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大家都越跌越买，怎么还会跌？？","listText":"大家都越跌越买，怎么还会跌？？","text":"大家都越跌越买，怎么还会跌？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315348118331632","repostId":"2442856436","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2442856436","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1717976252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2442856436?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-10 07:37","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"黄金重挫，资金却越跌越买！后市怎么走？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2442856436","media":"券商中国","summary":"近期，黄金市场高位震荡，价格波动明显放大。两大因素导致黄金大跌6月7日，国际金价重挫超3%，创近一个半月以来最大单日跌幅。资金越跌越买，黄金主题ETF份额大增虽然近期黄金市场有所回调，但资金却越跌越买，借道ETF加仓，多只黄金主题ETF份额大增。下周即将迎来美联储6月议息会议，并在会议前公布5月CPI通胀数据。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>近期，黄金市场高位震荡，价格波动明显放大。</p><p>6月7日，伦敦现货黄金跌3.45%至2293美元/盎司，其间一度跌破2290美元大关，COMEX黄金跌3.34%至2311美元/盎司，创下2022年4月22日以来的最大收盘跌幅。与此同时，COMEX白银期货主力合约也下跌6.69%，报29.27美元/盎司。</p><p>拉长时间来看，自5月20日的2454.2美元/盎司高点以来，COMEX黄金已经回撤了约6%，年初至今的涨幅收窄至12%左右。但多家机构仍然认为，黄金价格仍然有较强的支撑性，特别是在经过近期的震荡调整后，短期回调风险或已逐步释放，中长期金价仍有望持续上行。</p><p>两大因素导致黄金大跌</p><p>6月7日，国际金价重挫超3%，创近一个半月以来最大单日跌幅。</p><p>多家机构认为，黄金本轮回调主要受到周五公布的两个数据影响，一是5月非农就业数据超预期，二是中国央行本月暂停购金。</p><p>美国劳工统计局报告显示，5月非农明显强于市场预期，失业率则时隔两年突破4%。具体数据显示，美国5月份季调后非农就业人口增加27.2万人，显著高于市场预期的18.5万人，而与此同时，美国失业率从前期的3.9%意外提高至4.0%。</p><p>为何就业和失业指标出现同步上行现象？华安基金认为，这背后的逻辑是美国新增移民在挤占就业，美国的就业市场受到新增移民的“内卷”，本国居民的就业环境在恶化。新增移民更加吃苦耐劳，甚至存在重复打工的现象，导致了劳动供给的超预期增长。结合ADP就业数据和失业率数据的衰退信号，以及持续下修的前期非农数据，当前的美国就业数据依然喜忧参半。</p><p>与此同时，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2024年5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32320亿美元，较4月末上升312亿美元，升幅为0.98%。值得注意的是，5月末黄金储备1709.6亿美元（7280万盎司），维持不变，而在此之前我国黄金储备已连续18个月上升，这意味着中国央行在5月暂停了购金。</p><p>全球央行购金是2022年四季度以来，黄金好于美债利率定价的核心因素，这期间黄金多次出现了和美元、美债利率同步上行的现象。华安基金认为，本轮中国央行暂停购金，可能放缓全球央行购金的节奏，若暂停购金，则美债利率的定价有望重新成为主要影响因素。</p><p><strong>东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青也表示，央行此次停止增持的行为或与近期国际金价上涨幅度显著扩大等因素有关。在黄金价格水平处在历史高位的背景下，适当调整增持节奏，有助于控制成本。</strong></p><p>资金越跌越买，黄金主题ETF份额大增</p><p>虽然近期黄金市场有所回调，但资金却越跌越买，借道ETF加仓，多只黄金主题ETF份额大增。</p><p>据Wind数据统计，截至6月7日，全市场有17只黄金主题ETF，分别为13只直接投资黄金现货的黄金ETF和4只黄金股ETF，其中14只在近一个月以来呈现份额净增长态势，资金净流入趋势明显。</p><p>其中，华安的黄金ETF在近一个月份额净增长约4.5亿份，最新基金份额40.45亿份，创历史新高。该基金的最新资产净值为218.59亿元，仅一个月便增长了30亿元。</p><p>此外，永赢的黄金股ETF、华安的黄金股票ETF、易方达的黄金ETF分别在近一个月增长了3.96亿份、1.38亿份、1.08亿份，其中永赢的黄金股ETF、易方达的黄金ETF也均在6月7日创下基金份额的历史新高，最新基金份额分别为9.75亿份、17.70亿份。</p><p>整体来看，近一个月以来，17只黄金主题ETF的基金份额合计增长了10.73亿份，资产净值增长超50亿元。</p><p>关注通胀与6月议息会议信号</p><p>展望后市，高位震荡的黄金是否还具有投资价值？在经过近期的回调后又该如何参与？</p><p>永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，过去一段时间黄金波动较大，主要与美联储降息预期推迟及避险情绪降温有关，当然也与黄金前期涨幅较高、资金有一定的获利了结需求有一定关系，但黄金和黄金股在经过近期的震荡调整后，短期回调风险或已逐步释放，中长期金价仍有望持续上行。</p><p>某公募贵金属研究员也表示，仍然看好黄金价格的上涨机会，短期逻辑是首次加息落地前的确定性，且越临近加息落地确定性越强，这期间可以忽略美国数据的波动和美联储表态的反复。他认为，黄金的长期逻辑是美元体系的弱化，实物资产相对于美元的升值，近期随着金价的回落，黄金股票也普遍有回调，建议目前时点可重新加配起来。</p><p>此外，他还提示了白银的投资机会，在黄金形成涨价趋势的情况下，白银涨价时点滞后于黄金但幅度往往更大，白银价格创2012年以来的新高。</p><p>博时成长精选混合基金经理王凌霄表示，他中期依然看好铜、黄金、石油，三者向上弹性或较大、供给偏紧、估值空间大，但目前可能出现的风险是外部金融条件过分鹰派引发的需求自由落体和美联储加息可能。全球经济阶段性暂时无硬着落风险，海外增长或超预期，美国实体经济补库存需求开始显现，国内经济转向高质量发展，因此选取公司时更注重质量成长而不是速度和无效扩张。</p><p>华安基金建议，投资者仍然需要密切关注通胀数据与6月议息会议信号。下周即将迎来美联储6月议息会议，并在会议前公布5月CPI通胀数据。基于5月超预期下行的油价，能源分项或将提供一定的负贡献，为整体CPI下行助力，当然，关键因素依然是核心通胀，尤其是房租。</p><p>该公司认为，中长期看，美国高利率与高债务无法同时并存。在债务居高不下，财政持续扩张的背景下，未来依然需要降息来减缓利息支出压力，只是该风险在短期还没有被充分定价。因此，虽然当前黄金经历明显回调，双向波动较大，过去一个月的经济指标存在持续性的摆动，但建议投资者不急于追涨杀跌，关注黄金在美联储降息大周期、全球货币体系变革、地缘风险反复这三大逻辑下的配置价值。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金重挫，资金却越跌越买！后市怎么走？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-10 07:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>近期，黄金市场高位震荡，价格波动明显放大。</p><p>6月7日，伦敦现货黄金跌3.45%至2293美元/盎司，其间一度跌破2290美元大关，COMEX黄金跌3.34%至2311美元/盎司，创下2022年4月22日以来的最大收盘跌幅。与此同时，COMEX白银期货主力合约也下跌6.69%，报29.27美元/盎司。</p><p>拉长时间来看，自5月20日的2454.2美元/盎司高点以来，COMEX黄金已经回撤了约6%，年初至今的涨幅收窄至12%左右。但多家机构仍然认为，黄金价格仍然有较强的支撑性，特别是在经过近期的震荡调整后，短期回调风险或已逐步释放，中长期金价仍有望持续上行。</p><p>两大因素导致黄金大跌</p><p>6月7日，国际金价重挫超3%，创近一个半月以来最大单日跌幅。</p><p>多家机构认为，黄金本轮回调主要受到周五公布的两个数据影响，一是5月非农就业数据超预期，二是中国央行本月暂停购金。</p><p>美国劳工统计局报告显示，5月非农明显强于市场预期，失业率则时隔两年突破4%。具体数据显示，美国5月份季调后非农就业人口增加27.2万人，显著高于市场预期的18.5万人，而与此同时，美国失业率从前期的3.9%意外提高至4.0%。</p><p>为何就业和失业指标出现同步上行现象？华安基金认为，这背后的逻辑是美国新增移民在挤占就业，美国的就业市场受到新增移民的“内卷”，本国居民的就业环境在恶化。新增移民更加吃苦耐劳，甚至存在重复打工的现象，导致了劳动供给的超预期增长。结合ADP就业数据和失业率数据的衰退信号，以及持续下修的前期非农数据，当前的美国就业数据依然喜忧参半。</p><p>与此同时，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2024年5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32320亿美元，较4月末上升312亿美元，升幅为0.98%。值得注意的是，5月末黄金储备1709.6亿美元（7280万盎司），维持不变，而在此之前我国黄金储备已连续18个月上升，这意味着中国央行在5月暂停了购金。</p><p>全球央行购金是2022年四季度以来，黄金好于美债利率定价的核心因素，这期间黄金多次出现了和美元、美债利率同步上行的现象。华安基金认为，本轮中国央行暂停购金，可能放缓全球央行购金的节奏，若暂停购金，则美债利率的定价有望重新成为主要影响因素。</p><p><strong>东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青也表示，央行此次停止增持的行为或与近期国际金价上涨幅度显著扩大等因素有关。在黄金价格水平处在历史高位的背景下，适当调整增持节奏，有助于控制成本。</strong></p><p>资金越跌越买，黄金主题ETF份额大增</p><p>虽然近期黄金市场有所回调，但资金却越跌越买，借道ETF加仓，多只黄金主题ETF份额大增。</p><p>据Wind数据统计，截至6月7日，全市场有17只黄金主题ETF，分别为13只直接投资黄金现货的黄金ETF和4只黄金股ETF，其中14只在近一个月以来呈现份额净增长态势，资金净流入趋势明显。</p><p>其中，华安的黄金ETF在近一个月份额净增长约4.5亿份，最新基金份额40.45亿份，创历史新高。该基金的最新资产净值为218.59亿元，仅一个月便增长了30亿元。</p><p>此外，永赢的黄金股ETF、华安的黄金股票ETF、易方达的黄金ETF分别在近一个月增长了3.96亿份、1.38亿份、1.08亿份，其中永赢的黄金股ETF、易方达的黄金ETF也均在6月7日创下基金份额的历史新高，最新基金份额分别为9.75亿份、17.70亿份。</p><p>整体来看，近一个月以来，17只黄金主题ETF的基金份额合计增长了10.73亿份，资产净值增长超50亿元。</p><p>关注通胀与6月议息会议信号</p><p>展望后市，高位震荡的黄金是否还具有投资价值？在经过近期的回调后又该如何参与？</p><p>永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，过去一段时间黄金波动较大，主要与美联储降息预期推迟及避险情绪降温有关，当然也与黄金前期涨幅较高、资金有一定的获利了结需求有一定关系，但黄金和黄金股在经过近期的震荡调整后，短期回调风险或已逐步释放，中长期金价仍有望持续上行。</p><p>某公募贵金属研究员也表示，仍然看好黄金价格的上涨机会，短期逻辑是首次加息落地前的确定性，且越临近加息落地确定性越强，这期间可以忽略美国数据的波动和美联储表态的反复。他认为，黄金的长期逻辑是美元体系的弱化，实物资产相对于美元的升值，近期随着金价的回落，黄金股票也普遍有回调，建议目前时点可重新加配起来。</p><p>此外，他还提示了白银的投资机会，在黄金形成涨价趋势的情况下，白银涨价时点滞后于黄金但幅度往往更大，白银价格创2012年以来的新高。</p><p>博时成长精选混合基金经理王凌霄表示，他中期依然看好铜、黄金、石油，三者向上弹性或较大、供给偏紧、估值空间大，但目前可能出现的风险是外部金融条件过分鹰派引发的需求自由落体和美联储加息可能。全球经济阶段性暂时无硬着落风险，海外增长或超预期，美国实体经济补库存需求开始显现，国内经济转向高质量发展，因此选取公司时更注重质量成长而不是速度和无效扩张。</p><p>华安基金建议，投资者仍然需要密切关注通胀数据与6月议息会议信号。下周即将迎来美联储6月议息会议，并在会议前公布5月CPI通胀数据。基于5月超预期下行的油价，能源分项或将提供一定的负贡献，为整体CPI下行助力，当然，关键因素依然是核心通胀，尤其是房租。</p><p>该公司认为，中长期看，美国高利率与高债务无法同时并存。在债务居高不下，财政持续扩张的背景下，未来依然需要降息来减缓利息支出压力，只是该风险在短期还没有被充分定价。因此，虽然当前黄金经历明显回调，双向波动较大，过去一个月的经济指标存在持续性的摆动，但建议投资者不急于追涨杀跌，关注黄金在美联储降息大周期、全球货币体系变革、地缘风险反复这三大逻辑下的配置价值。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87b27415a1ff4510838807294ccd3e1c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3NjM5MjIwOQ==&mid=2652157446&idx=2&sn=5b50a709c7abb0de92e34c59e1927466&chksm=854c215b5bfc44ab80b8f0a1deb50ce8993e50e5ce99adc43cafe7a79e76642729ab96a25e70&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2442856436","content_text":"近期，黄金市场高位震荡，价格波动明显放大。6月7日，伦敦现货黄金跌3.45%至2293美元/盎司，其间一度跌破2290美元大关，COMEX黄金跌3.34%至2311美元/盎司，创下2022年4月22日以来的最大收盘跌幅。与此同时，COMEX白银期货主力合约也下跌6.69%，报29.27美元/盎司。拉长时间来看，自5月20日的2454.2美元/盎司高点以来，COMEX黄金已经回撤了约6%，年初至今的涨幅收窄至12%左右。但多家机构仍然认为，黄金价格仍然有较强的支撑性，特别是在经过近期的震荡调整后，短期回调风险或已逐步释放，中长期金价仍有望持续上行。两大因素导致黄金大跌6月7日，国际金价重挫超3%，创近一个半月以来最大单日跌幅。多家机构认为，黄金本轮回调主要受到周五公布的两个数据影响，一是5月非农就业数据超预期，二是中国央行本月暂停购金。美国劳工统计局报告显示，5月非农明显强于市场预期，失业率则时隔两年突破4%。具体数据显示，美国5月份季调后非农就业人口增加27.2万人，显著高于市场预期的18.5万人，而与此同时，美国失业率从前期的3.9%意外提高至4.0%。为何就业和失业指标出现同步上行现象？华安基金认为，这背后的逻辑是美国新增移民在挤占就业，美国的就业市场受到新增移民的“内卷”，本国居民的就业环境在恶化。新增移民更加吃苦耐劳，甚至存在重复打工的现象，导致了劳动供给的超预期增长。结合ADP就业数据和失业率数据的衰退信号，以及持续下修的前期非农数据，当前的美国就业数据依然喜忧参半。与此同时，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2024年5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32320亿美元，较4月末上升312亿美元，升幅为0.98%。值得注意的是，5月末黄金储备1709.6亿美元（7280万盎司），维持不变，而在此之前我国黄金储备已连续18个月上升，这意味着中国央行在5月暂停了购金。全球央行购金是2022年四季度以来，黄金好于美债利率定价的核心因素，这期间黄金多次出现了和美元、美债利率同步上行的现象。华安基金认为，本轮中国央行暂停购金，可能放缓全球央行购金的节奏，若暂停购金，则美债利率的定价有望重新成为主要影响因素。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青也表示，央行此次停止增持的行为或与近期国际金价上涨幅度显著扩大等因素有关。在黄金价格水平处在历史高位的背景下，适当调整增持节奏，有助于控制成本。资金越跌越买，黄金主题ETF份额大增虽然近期黄金市场有所回调，但资金却越跌越买，借道ETF加仓，多只黄金主题ETF份额大增。据Wind数据统计，截至6月7日，全市场有17只黄金主题ETF，分别为13只直接投资黄金现货的黄金ETF和4只黄金股ETF，其中14只在近一个月以来呈现份额净增长态势，资金净流入趋势明显。其中，华安的黄金ETF在近一个月份额净增长约4.5亿份，最新基金份额40.45亿份，创历史新高。该基金的最新资产净值为218.59亿元，仅一个月便增长了30亿元。此外，永赢的黄金股ETF、华安的黄金股票ETF、易方达的黄金ETF分别在近一个月增长了3.96亿份、1.38亿份、1.08亿份，其中永赢的黄金股ETF、易方达的黄金ETF也均在6月7日创下基金份额的历史新高，最新基金份额分别为9.75亿份、17.70亿份。整体来看，近一个月以来，17只黄金主题ETF的基金份额合计增长了10.73亿份，资产净值增长超50亿元。关注通胀与6月议息会议信号展望后市，高位震荡的黄金是否还具有投资价值？在经过近期的回调后又该如何参与？永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为，过去一段时间黄金波动较大，主要与美联储降息预期推迟及避险情绪降温有关，当然也与黄金前期涨幅较高、资金有一定的获利了结需求有一定关系，但黄金和黄金股在经过近期的震荡调整后，短期回调风险或已逐步释放，中长期金价仍有望持续上行。某公募贵金属研究员也表示，仍然看好黄金价格的上涨机会，短期逻辑是首次加息落地前的确定性，且越临近加息落地确定性越强，这期间可以忽略美国数据的波动和美联储表态的反复。他认为，黄金的长期逻辑是美元体系的弱化，实物资产相对于美元的升值，近期随着金价的回落，黄金股票也普遍有回调，建议目前时点可重新加配起来。此外，他还提示了白银的投资机会，在黄金形成涨价趋势的情况下，白银涨价时点滞后于黄金但幅度往往更大，白银价格创2012年以来的新高。博时成长精选混合基金经理王凌霄表示，他中期依然看好铜、黄金、石油，三者向上弹性或较大、供给偏紧、估值空间大，但目前可能出现的风险是外部金融条件过分鹰派引发的需求自由落体和美联储加息可能。全球经济阶段性暂时无硬着落风险，海外增长或超预期，美国实体经济补库存需求开始显现，国内经济转向高质量发展，因此选取公司时更注重质量成长而不是速度和无效扩张。华安基金建议，投资者仍然需要密切关注通胀数据与6月议息会议信号。下周即将迎来美联储6月议息会议，并在会议前公布5月CPI通胀数据。基于5月超预期下行的油价，能源分项或将提供一定的负贡献，为整体CPI下行助力，当然，关键因素依然是核心通胀，尤其是房租。该公司认为，中长期看，美国高利率与高债务无法同时并存。在债务居高不下，财政持续扩张的背景下，未来依然需要降息来减缓利息支出压力，只是该风险在短期还没有被充分定价。因此，虽然当前黄金经历明显回调，双向波动较大，过去一个月的经济指标存在持续性的摆动，但建议投资者不急于追涨杀跌，关注黄金在美联储降息大周期、全球货币体系变革、地缘风险反复这三大逻辑下的配置价值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311192044249104,"gmtCreate":1716994535695,"gmtModify":1716994536843,"author":{"id":"3581249944832978","authorId":"3581249944832978","name":"峭壁小松","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e40a82292b0c9d85296e971665c14683","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581249944832978","idStr":"3581249944832978"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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