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Santaurora
2021-07-20
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
从50%浮盈到-20%浮亏。这次经历,让我真正的学习到价值投资所需要的定力。方法不是一成不变的,估值和技术指标结合的方法,还是需要练习。对于仓位的控制还欠缺理性。以至于目前的打折行情也无力下手。直接踏空。总结,在6月底的疯狂之际,还是头脑膨胀以为老虎要飞起来了。其实45天CCI跌破200的时候,就应该减仓,降低风险。立帖为证,下不为例。
Santaurora
2021-04-29
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
坚持长期持股,波段操作。绝对可以的。
Santaurora
2021-06-13
$TIGR 20210716 30.0 CALL(TIGR)$
想要卖出,这次真的陪赔大发了。不过学个教训。
Santaurora
2021-04-21
skillz, SPAC 上市股票的特质,最近被暴力做空,很多以偏概全的指责。为了做空而做空。不带杠杆,大家hold住。相信这个跟泡泡玛特一样完全符合人类天性的生意模式。长期持有,等待绽放。
Santaurora
2021-05-04
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
看准了的,就不打算放了。
Santaurora
2021-04-19
$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$
等你回来
Santaurora
2021-07-26
$高途(GOTU)$
兄弟,天台见。还好轻仓。苦果,不懂的不要乱动。装死吧,看他啥时候下架。😭😭
Santaurora
2021-05-29
为什么中美两大超级经济体都在担心人口老龄化呢?
抱歉,原内容已删除
Santaurora
2021-05-31
$高途(GOTU)$
深刻的教训,看不懂,不要买。估值方法不能乱套。
Santaurora
2021-06-09
信息时代,打破垄断。
抱歉,原内容已删除
Santaurora
2021-05-24
$高途(GOTU)$
跌晕了,不过长期看好中国教育。
Santaurora
2021-04-27
有理有据,铿锵有力。 尊重事实,对于很多媒体人来说,是非常困难的。
抱歉,原内容已删除
Santaurora
2021-04-22
是在高速上撞上的么?怎么停停走走,像是在市区路线。高速行驶配合交警录像,实际状况就一目了然了。自己超速还大张旗鼓。果然醉翁之意不在酒啊。
抱歉,原内容已删除
Santaurora
2021-09-14
有行动,看效果如何。看好zf大活动
抱歉,原内容已删除
Santaurora
2021-07-26
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
割不割双眼皮?不割,绝对不割。等掉到十块再买。不过,要快,这不离2季报不远了。数据会压倒一切。加油啊,老虎🐯!
Santaurora
2021-06-24
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
再来,等翻倍
Santaurora
2021-06-14
$UiPath(PATH)$
RPA机器人,目前解决流程优化问题的必须方案。是一座介于AI和人之间的桥梁。只要企业需要提高竞争力,就需要用这座桥。行业爆发,只是时间的问题。
Santaurora
2021-06-04
$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$
苦尽甘来
Santaurora
2021-05-27
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
今天看能不能突破压力向上,守住22.21.
Santaurora
2021-05-03
不明白为什么老是做空跟谁学,政府规范化过程中,必然再次在eduTech内洗一次牌,烧钱已经不被许可的情况下,看谁能有创新思路打开市场需求,变现。这个看的应该是管理水平了。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605723262688","authorIdStr":"3579605723262688"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真正的炫耀肌肉💪🏻","listText":"真正的炫耀肌肉💪🏻","text":"真正的炫耀肌肉💪🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885526406","repostId":"1131674317","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885561465,"gmtCreate":1631803824457,"gmtModify":1631889592828,"author":{"id":"3579605723262688","authorId":"3579605723262688","name":" . ","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":0,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579605723262688","authorIdStr":"3579605723262688"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好有文艺范啊,喜欢。确实越来越没有新意了。","listText":"好有文艺范啊,喜欢。确实越来越没有新意了。","text":"好有文艺范啊,喜欢。确实越来越没有新意了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885561465","repostId":"1189342392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189342392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631772689,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189342392?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 14:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从苹果发布会说起,手机为什么越来越无聊了?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189342392","media":"DT财经","summary":"一年一度,库克又带着挤牙膏的新iPhone来收钱了。\n当我们谈到苹果发布会都在谈论写什么?\n抛开十三香的烂梗,关于这次发布会大家聊得最多的,无非就是加量不加价和几个变来变去的颜色。\n关于13香小伙伴们","content":"<p>一年一度,库克又带着挤牙膏的新iPhone来收钱了。</p>\n<p>当我们谈到苹果发布会都在谈论写什么?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/794b8816ef1b6de20b4ef8d3d24ad6a9\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"694\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>抛开十三香的烂梗,关于这次发布会大家聊得最多的,无非就是加量不加价和几个变来变去的颜色。</p>\n<p>关于13香小伙伴们都在聊些什么?<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310c4df42373796c46d158880ac66a6a\" tg-width=\"358\" tg-height=\"776\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>可感谢慈善家库克,还不如感谢坚挺的人民币汇率,这才是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>少收几百块的主要原因。至于本该去年就上的高刷今年才舍得给,只能说库克在玩弄消费者心理上是真的懂王。PS,刘海小了又不是刘海没了,营销文吹一吹,消费者有必要当真?</p>\n<p>过去一年美元兑人民币汇率趋势</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d269549782a9b8ecc214a3dec39b2f\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"699\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>挤牙膏的苹果让人无聊,而年年军备竞赛的安卓阵营,今年还是翻来覆去炒作的全面屏、折叠屏——除了成为数码圈高端玩具,在普通人看来同样没什么存在感。</p>\n<p>经历了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机百花齐放的时代,体验过苹果引领风骚的颠覆,回想起第一部智能系统手机、第一部有摄像头的手机、第一部无按键的手机、第一部多点触控手机、第一部指纹识别手机……你最近见过的哪一部手机有这样的颠覆性?</p>\n<p>一边是手机的软硬件快速升级迭代,另一边是手机使用体验并没有太大改善,设计也趋同,基本定型。既然各家都一样了,消费者对于手机也就“无话可聊”。</p>\n<p>为什么现在人手至少一部的手机会变得如此“无聊”?曾经引领风潮的智能手机,未来还能有想象力吗?</p>\n<p><b>01</b></p>\n<p><b>从耳目一新到千篇一律</b></p>\n<p><b>手机发布会变无聊了</b></p>\n<p>每当新iPhone被吐槽缺乏新意,再回首乔布斯的发布会,恍然如梦。</p>\n<p>2007年的乔布斯不仅重新定义了手机,还重新定义了发布会:他从信封里拿出MacBook Air,当着观众的面,在初代iPhone苹果地图上给附近的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>打电话下单4000杯拿铁,种种接地气的举动,让这场发布会有了破圈的效果。</p>\n<p>这之后,苹果新品发布会为手机圈树立了标杆,谈科技情怀、重用户体验、立文化人设,给原本显得很硬的手机创造了可以消费的话题。</p>\n<p>苹果发布会成了后起之秀们模仿的对象,2011年小米发布第一款手机时,雷军就一身黑色T恤和蓝色牛仔裤亮相,连发布会选址都是798这种文艺胜地。</p>\n<p>在之后的十余年,安卓厂商们还另辟蹊径,专注吹牛×(堆参数)、比价格、怼友商,给广大吃瓜群众提供了编段子、玩梗的丰富素材。雷军的“areyouOK”,罗永浩的“理解万岁”,让这些手机收获了无数的讨论热度。</p>\n<p>苹果发布会也依旧是很多其他领域公司蹭热点的对象。</p>\n<p>最恶搞的蹭热点行为来自知名“考研网站”P站。2018年苹果发布会之后,P站发布报告称,库克两小时主题演讲期间,P站iOS设备的访问流量最高一度下降了近12%,比奥斯卡、格莱美的影响还大。</p>\n<p>可以说,过去十多年,手机之所成为现象级的话题,这些颇具特色的新品发布会功劳不小。</p>\n<p>但近几年的发布会,除了互怼更加频繁,似乎也乏善可陈了。就连原本高姿态的苹果,也不能免俗加上了怼友商的流程。</p>\n<p>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>搜索引擎上可以看到,这些年苹果发布会的关注度越来越低,自2012年发布iPhone 5之后,一直在下跌。</p>\n<p>2007-2021年iPhone搜索热度趋势</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d097a3bb9a1d94627437f98a6c1d91b\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"675\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>手机新品发布会越来越无话可聊,有人说是各家发布会太频繁,大家审美疲劳。</p>\n<p>但更重要的还是,手机新品本身越来越难打动人,而行业内卷导致产品逐渐趋同,让发布会失去了能吸引眼球的基础。有趣、有梗和故事只是附加值,当真正的产品都不再有新意了,怎么还能指望大家年复一年地看几个中年男人杵在台上吹牛X呢?</p>\n<p><b>02</b></p>\n<p><b>手机不再是主角</b></p>\n<p>也不能说现在的手机毫无创新,但对比激动人心的智能手机进化史,现在的创新确实很难再打动人。</p>\n<p>第一部智能手机算是1994年的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> Simon,设计非常超前,没有物理按键,手写笔和触控输入,第一次兼容应用程序。虽然因为价格、适用性问题曲高和寡,毕竟开创了先河。</p>\n<p>到新世纪,智能手机迎来了一个小高潮。</p>\n<p>2000年,摩托罗拉A6188上市,号称是“全球首款触屏智能手机”,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>R380首次搭载了Symbian OS系统,夏普则第一次把11万像素的摄像头搬上手机,算是个好创意,只是11万像素太不忍睹了,所以没有太大反响。</p>\n<p>那是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>、摩托罗拉、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">索尼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">黑莓</a>等品牌争奇斗艳的年代,各种奇葩创意层出不穷,每出一款主力机型,都是大家从未见过的版本。</p>\n<p>虽然足够新鲜,但这时候的智能手机好用的很少,还贼贵,对于平时就打打电话发发短信的普通人,花里胡哨的智能机吸引力实在有限。</p>\n<p>这一切,随着乔布斯推出iPhone而彻底改变。</p>\n<p>2007年,苹果推出初代iPhone手机,从外观设计到用户体验,全面颠覆,手指多点触控代替手写笔和键盘作为交互手段,成为第一部爆款的智能手机。</p>\n<p>第二年谷歌“模仿”出了安卓,第一款安卓手机HTCDream(GoogleG1)诞生,形成与苹果分庭抗礼的对立阵营。气得乔布斯怒斥谷歌抄袭,谷歌CEO施密特当时还是苹果董事会成员,只好灰溜溜走人。</p>\n<p>同一年,第二代苹果手机iPhone 3G也发布了,添加了对3G网络和无线网络的支持,更影响深远的是App Store上线。这个App Store,就是现代人手机成瘾的万恶之源。从此,手机不再局限于担当通讯工具这种次要角色,而变成了人类进化史上最新生成的“可拆卸器官”,用麦克卢汉的话说,就是人的延伸。</p>\n<p>随着应用商店的不断拓展,人的一举一动再也离不开手机。</p>\n<p>2010年,乔布斯最后一次发布的iPhone 4,凭借Retina显示屏、500万像素镜头、流畅的系统、漂亮的外观,吊打当时还不成熟的安卓以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">诺基亚</a>、摩托罗拉等老牌厂商,上市三天销量就达170万部,很多人在专卖店门口搭帐篷排队抢购,当时它甚至还没有在中国大陆上市,于是水货iPhone催生了一支往来深港两地的水客大军,iPhone=1个肾的等式也因它诞生。</p>\n<p>就在同一年,首款第三方安卓系列智能机<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>GalaxyS面世,大门一开,越来越多的数码厂商加入对抗苹果、开发智能手机的行列。三星GALAXY NOTE以5.3英寸屏幕开启了手机大屏时代,HTC Butterfly率先迈入了1080P高清时代……</p>\n<p>2011年,雷军带队发布的小米手机填补了苹果、三星在低端市场的空白,与后来的几个效仿者一起横扫中低端手机市场,让越来越多普通人也能用得上流畅、靠谱、高性能的智能手机。</p>\n<p>2010年代上半段,称得上是智能手机创新的黄金年代。2010年,全球智能手机的出货量达到了2.98亿部,几乎是2008年1.51亿部的两倍,到2013年就突破了10亿部的出货量级。</p>\n<p>但在此之后,普通消费者对智能手机的升级换代变得没那么敏感了。尽管硬件参数越来越高,但人们依赖手机,更多是因为4G时代下各种互联网应用、服务的普及,而不是因为手机本身有多大的变化。</p>\n<p>首次采用指纹识别技术的iPhone 5s,虽然是2013年最畅销的手机,却开始被吐槽小修小补、缺乏创新。随着安卓系统日趋完善,iPhone的市场优势逐渐缩小,屡屡被三星、华为掀翻在地。</p>\n<p>安卓厂商也没好到哪去,透明的数码供应链让大家拉不开差距,旗舰芯片差不多,硬件配置和软件优化也越来越趋同。成功的手机总是相似的,大家只能在一条道上削尖脑袋假装个性化。</p>\n<p>手机厂商热衷的参数比较,越来越让用户感到数字疲劳。</p>\n<p>互相借鉴的界面和UI设计,给用户的感觉是分不出谁是谁。</p>\n<p>时至今日,再想做出一款震惊用户的新品手机,显然很不现实。数码KOL们只能穷尽了列文虎克的力量,来给手机爱好者找到一些似是而非的亮点,至于普通用户是不是用得上,不重要。</p>\n<p>如果说此前手机公司的竞争是为了一部有更好体验的产品,那么随着手机创新的变慢,手机公司的目标已经从发布一款更好用的手机,变成了占据更大的市场份额、赢得更多的利润。</p>\n<p>从这个时候开始,手机市场的主角不再是手机,也不再是消费者,而是手机公司。</p>\n<p><b>03</b></p>\n<p><b>“假内卷真躺平”:</b></p>\n<p><b>躺着就能赚钱,为什么要创新</b></p>\n<p>2013年,“为发烧而生”的小米分出了一个子品牌红米,这个品牌最初是为了探索更低端市场,定位就是低价走量。</p>\n<p>但随着小米上市和盈利的需要,小米高端化被提上了日程,Redmi自然接过了原来小米的班,而小米主力机型则从1999元一路上升到4999元。</p>\n<p>其实小米也很无奈,因为整个安卓手机市场在走高端化路线,要和苹果掰手腕。但支撑起高价手机的,并不是什么翻天覆地的创新,而是:堆硬件。</p>\n<p>至于苹果,这些年在封闭生态中收苹果税就已经够饱了,产品上无非就是直边改圆边又改回直边,加上指纹去掉指纹如今可能又要加回指纹,更不要说“降频门”这种令人智熄的操作了。</p>\n<p>说苹果不创新,库克可能有点小委屈,毕竟还是创新了——销售模式创新:把手机配件拆开来卖两次。</p>\n<p>这就是手机界目睹之怪现状:</p>\n<p>镜头、屏幕、处理器,个个都在军备竞赛。这是为了把消费者吸引过来,可以撑起高价。</p>\n<p>耳机、插口、充电头,处处都在删繁就简。名义上节能环保,实际上一件商品卖两次,手机公司自己“双赢”。</p>\n<p>也不是所有人都对手机失去了情怀和理想,罗永浩就剑走偏锋,要通过锤子来再造智能手机,可结果,成了老赖的罗永浩只能化身网红,直播卖货还债三连。罗永浩用血汗钱的教训证明了,现在手机搞大创新是此路不通的。说到底,他折腾几年的创新,也并没有真的带来革命性变化。</p>\n<p>从商业的角度来说,手机公司毫无创新动力也能理解,毕竟整个手机市场已经从蓝海变成红海,增长预期一年低过一年。</p>\n<p>2016-2020年全球智能手机出货量</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e2c6425321604cc0c1bc3f7229be759\" tg-width=\"546\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>2018 年全球智能手机销量同比增长 1.2%,但北美、亚太市场都是负增长。相比早期两年翻一倍、每年几十个百分点的增速,这个市场基本上已经杀红了眼。</p>\n<p>到了2019年,全年出货量直接负增长1%,手机公司拼到绝望,只能盼着5G带来换机潮,但实际上市场并不买账。</p>\n<p>2020年,叠加疫情影响的手机市场可以说全面歇菜。</p>\n<p>在这种市场情况下,又缺乏革命性的技术变革,奢谈手机创新只能是罗永浩一样有勇气的手机门外汉,精明的业内人士是想都不敢想。</p>\n<p>时势之下,没有英雄。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ec1468c8f1c3866a559abb2f6e95935\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>人们可能要问,智能手机曾经那些令人惊艳的创新,到底是因为消费者的需求、技术的进步、还是资本的价值取向?我们很难给出答案。</p>\n<p>但可以看到现实,手机似乎日渐发展到终极形态,逐渐被标准化统一,大家都已经明白手机这样设计才是用起来最好、卖起来也最好的,剩下的无非就是打磨一下体验。</p>\n<p>资本开始追逐新的潮流科技单品:电动汽车、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、未来的元宇宙设备……反正手机已经不性感了,不信你看,连小米、华为甚至OPPO都要造车去了,至于手机,就让它逐渐平庸化吧,反正还能赚钱就行。</p>\n<p>从商业上讲,手机曾经是消费品王者,手机公司多么牛X。但如今,不管他们如何宣传自己的技术、创意,手机作为消费品可能跟柴米油盐酱醋茶差不多了,它确实很贵,也更有科技含量,但已经不再是能让人们消费、谈论、甚至惊叹的创新潮流。</p>\n<p>智能手机的黄金时代过去了,我很怀念它。</p>","source":"DTCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从苹果发布会说起,手机为什么越来越无聊了?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从苹果发布会说起,手机为什么越来越无聊了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-16 14:11 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5wbqrbXLlmoUlBGd-YXM-Q><strong>DT财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一年一度,库克又带着挤牙膏的新iPhone来收钱了。\n当我们谈到苹果发布会都在谈论写什么?\n抛开十三香的烂梗,关于这次发布会大家聊得最多的,无非就是加量不加价和几个变来变去的颜色。\n关于13香小伙伴们都在聊些什么?\n可感谢慈善家库克,还不如感谢坚挺的人民币汇率,这才是苹果少收几百块的主要原因。至于本该去年就上的高刷今年才舍得给,只能说库克在玩弄消费者心理上是真的懂王。PS,刘海小了又不是刘海没了,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5wbqrbXLlmoUlBGd-YXM-Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4c4efd08e4bf294c0a3bced5eaec842","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5wbqrbXLlmoUlBGd-YXM-Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189342392","content_text":"一年一度,库克又带着挤牙膏的新iPhone来收钱了。\n当我们谈到苹果发布会都在谈论写什么?\n抛开十三香的烂梗,关于这次发布会大家聊得最多的,无非就是加量不加价和几个变来变去的颜色。\n关于13香小伙伴们都在聊些什么?\n可感谢慈善家库克,还不如感谢坚挺的人民币汇率,这才是苹果少收几百块的主要原因。至于本该去年就上的高刷今年才舍得给,只能说库克在玩弄消费者心理上是真的懂王。PS,刘海小了又不是刘海没了,营销文吹一吹,消费者有必要当真?\n过去一年美元兑人民币汇率趋势\n\n挤牙膏的苹果让人无聊,而年年军备竞赛的安卓阵营,今年还是翻来覆去炒作的全面屏、折叠屏——除了成为数码圈高端玩具,在普通人看来同样没什么存在感。\n经历了智能手机百花齐放的时代,体验过苹果引领风骚的颠覆,回想起第一部智能系统手机、第一部有摄像头的手机、第一部无按键的手机、第一部多点触控手机、第一部指纹识别手机……你最近见过的哪一部手机有这样的颠覆性?\n一边是手机的软硬件快速升级迭代,另一边是手机使用体验并没有太大改善,设计也趋同,基本定型。既然各家都一样了,消费者对于手机也就“无话可聊”。\n为什么现在人手至少一部的手机会变得如此“无聊”?曾经引领风潮的智能手机,未来还能有想象力吗?\n01\n从耳目一新到千篇一律\n手机发布会变无聊了\n每当新iPhone被吐槽缺乏新意,再回首乔布斯的发布会,恍然如梦。\n2007年的乔布斯不仅重新定义了手机,还重新定义了发布会:他从信封里拿出MacBook Air,当着观众的面,在初代iPhone苹果地图上给附近的星巴克打电话下单4000杯拿铁,种种接地气的举动,让这场发布会有了破圈的效果。\n这之后,苹果新品发布会为手机圈树立了标杆,谈科技情怀、重用户体验、立文化人设,给原本显得很硬的手机创造了可以消费的话题。\n苹果发布会成了后起之秀们模仿的对象,2011年小米发布第一款手机时,雷军就一身黑色T恤和蓝色牛仔裤亮相,连发布会选址都是798这种文艺胜地。\n在之后的十余年,安卓厂商们还另辟蹊径,专注吹牛×(堆参数)、比价格、怼友商,给广大吃瓜群众提供了编段子、玩梗的丰富素材。雷军的“areyouOK”,罗永浩的“理解万岁”,让这些手机收获了无数的讨论热度。\n苹果发布会也依旧是很多其他领域公司蹭热点的对象。\n最恶搞的蹭热点行为来自知名“考研网站”P站。2018年苹果发布会之后,P站发布报告称,库克两小时主题演讲期间,P站iOS设备的访问流量最高一度下降了近12%,比奥斯卡、格莱美的影响还大。\n可以说,过去十多年,手机之所成为现象级的话题,这些颇具特色的新品发布会功劳不小。\n但近几年的发布会,除了互怼更加频繁,似乎也乏善可陈了。就连原本高姿态的苹果,也不能免俗加上了怼友商的流程。\n在谷歌搜索引擎上可以看到,这些年苹果发布会的关注度越来越低,自2012年发布iPhone 5之后,一直在下跌。\n2007-2021年iPhone搜索热度趋势\n\n手机新品发布会越来越无话可聊,有人说是各家发布会太频繁,大家审美疲劳。\n但更重要的还是,手机新品本身越来越难打动人,而行业内卷导致产品逐渐趋同,让发布会失去了能吸引眼球的基础。有趣、有梗和故事只是附加值,当真正的产品都不再有新意了,怎么还能指望大家年复一年地看几个中年男人杵在台上吹牛X呢?\n02\n手机不再是主角\n也不能说现在的手机毫无创新,但对比激动人心的智能手机进化史,现在的创新确实很难再打动人。\n第一部智能手机算是1994年的IBM Simon,设计非常超前,没有物理按键,手写笔和触控输入,第一次兼容应用程序。虽然因为价格、适用性问题曲高和寡,毕竟开创了先河。\n到新世纪,智能手机迎来了一个小高潮。\n2000年,摩托罗拉A6188上市,号称是“全球首款触屏智能手机”,爱立信R380首次搭载了Symbian OS系统,夏普则第一次把11万像素的摄像头搬上手机,算是个好创意,只是11万像素太不忍睹了,所以没有太大反响。\n那是诺基亚、摩托罗拉、索尼、黑莓等品牌争奇斗艳的年代,各种奇葩创意层出不穷,每出一款主力机型,都是大家从未见过的版本。\n虽然足够新鲜,但这时候的智能手机好用的很少,还贼贵,对于平时就打打电话发发短信的普通人,花里胡哨的智能机吸引力实在有限。\n这一切,随着乔布斯推出iPhone而彻底改变。\n2007年,苹果推出初代iPhone手机,从外观设计到用户体验,全面颠覆,手指多点触控代替手写笔和键盘作为交互手段,成为第一部爆款的智能手机。\n第二年谷歌“模仿”出了安卓,第一款安卓手机HTCDream(GoogleG1)诞生,形成与苹果分庭抗礼的对立阵营。气得乔布斯怒斥谷歌抄袭,谷歌CEO施密特当时还是苹果董事会成员,只好灰溜溜走人。\n同一年,第二代苹果手机iPhone 3G也发布了,添加了对3G网络和无线网络的支持,更影响深远的是App Store上线。这个App Store,就是现代人手机成瘾的万恶之源。从此,手机不再局限于担当通讯工具这种次要角色,而变成了人类进化史上最新生成的“可拆卸器官”,用麦克卢汉的话说,就是人的延伸。\n随着应用商店的不断拓展,人的一举一动再也离不开手机。\n2010年,乔布斯最后一次发布的iPhone 4,凭借Retina显示屏、500万像素镜头、流畅的系统、漂亮的外观,吊打当时还不成熟的安卓以及诺基亚、摩托罗拉等老牌厂商,上市三天销量就达170万部,很多人在专卖店门口搭帐篷排队抢购,当时它甚至还没有在中国大陆上市,于是水货iPhone催生了一支往来深港两地的水客大军,iPhone=1个肾的等式也因它诞生。\n就在同一年,首款第三方安卓系列智能机三星GalaxyS面世,大门一开,越来越多的数码厂商加入对抗苹果、开发智能手机的行列。三星GALAXY NOTE以5.3英寸屏幕开启了手机大屏时代,HTC Butterfly率先迈入了1080P高清时代……\n2011年,雷军带队发布的小米手机填补了苹果、三星在低端市场的空白,与后来的几个效仿者一起横扫中低端手机市场,让越来越多普通人也能用得上流畅、靠谱、高性能的智能手机。\n2010年代上半段,称得上是智能手机创新的黄金年代。2010年,全球智能手机的出货量达到了2.98亿部,几乎是2008年1.51亿部的两倍,到2013年就突破了10亿部的出货量级。\n但在此之后,普通消费者对智能手机的升级换代变得没那么敏感了。尽管硬件参数越来越高,但人们依赖手机,更多是因为4G时代下各种互联网应用、服务的普及,而不是因为手机本身有多大的变化。\n首次采用指纹识别技术的iPhone 5s,虽然是2013年最畅销的手机,却开始被吐槽小修小补、缺乏创新。随着安卓系统日趋完善,iPhone的市场优势逐渐缩小,屡屡被三星、华为掀翻在地。\n安卓厂商也没好到哪去,透明的数码供应链让大家拉不开差距,旗舰芯片差不多,硬件配置和软件优化也越来越趋同。成功的手机总是相似的,大家只能在一条道上削尖脑袋假装个性化。\n手机厂商热衷的参数比较,越来越让用户感到数字疲劳。\n互相借鉴的界面和UI设计,给用户的感觉是分不出谁是谁。\n时至今日,再想做出一款震惊用户的新品手机,显然很不现实。数码KOL们只能穷尽了列文虎克的力量,来给手机爱好者找到一些似是而非的亮点,至于普通用户是不是用得上,不重要。\n如果说此前手机公司的竞争是为了一部有更好体验的产品,那么随着手机创新的变慢,手机公司的目标已经从发布一款更好用的手机,变成了占据更大的市场份额、赢得更多的利润。\n从这个时候开始,手机市场的主角不再是手机,也不再是消费者,而是手机公司。\n03\n“假内卷真躺平”:\n躺着就能赚钱,为什么要创新\n2013年,“为发烧而生”的小米分出了一个子品牌红米,这个品牌最初是为了探索更低端市场,定位就是低价走量。\n但随着小米上市和盈利的需要,小米高端化被提上了日程,Redmi自然接过了原来小米的班,而小米主力机型则从1999元一路上升到4999元。\n其实小米也很无奈,因为整个安卓手机市场在走高端化路线,要和苹果掰手腕。但支撑起高价手机的,并不是什么翻天覆地的创新,而是:堆硬件。\n至于苹果,这些年在封闭生态中收苹果税就已经够饱了,产品上无非就是直边改圆边又改回直边,加上指纹去掉指纹如今可能又要加回指纹,更不要说“降频门”这种令人智熄的操作了。\n说苹果不创新,库克可能有点小委屈,毕竟还是创新了——销售模式创新:把手机配件拆开来卖两次。\n这就是手机界目睹之怪现状:\n镜头、屏幕、处理器,个个都在军备竞赛。这是为了把消费者吸引过来,可以撑起高价。\n耳机、插口、充电头,处处都在删繁就简。名义上节能环保,实际上一件商品卖两次,手机公司自己“双赢”。\n也不是所有人都对手机失去了情怀和理想,罗永浩就剑走偏锋,要通过锤子来再造智能手机,可结果,成了老赖的罗永浩只能化身网红,直播卖货还债三连。罗永浩用血汗钱的教训证明了,现在手机搞大创新是此路不通的。说到底,他折腾几年的创新,也并没有真的带来革命性变化。\n从商业的角度来说,手机公司毫无创新动力也能理解,毕竟整个手机市场已经从蓝海变成红海,增长预期一年低过一年。\n2016-2020年全球智能手机出货量\n\n2018 年全球智能手机销量同比增长 1.2%,但北美、亚太市场都是负增长。相比早期两年翻一倍、每年几十个百分点的增速,这个市场基本上已经杀红了眼。\n到了2019年,全年出货量直接负增长1%,手机公司拼到绝望,只能盼着5G带来换机潮,但实际上市场并不买账。\n2020年,叠加疫情影响的手机市场可以说全面歇菜。\n在这种市场情况下,又缺乏革命性的技术变革,奢谈手机创新只能是罗永浩一样有勇气的手机门外汉,精明的业内人士是想都不敢想。\n时势之下,没有英雄。\n\n人们可能要问,智能手机曾经那些令人惊艳的创新,到底是因为消费者的需求、技术的进步、还是资本的价值取向?我们很难给出答案。\n但可以看到现实,手机似乎日渐发展到终极形态,逐渐被标准化统一,大家都已经明白手机这样设计才是用起来最好、卖起来也最好的,剩下的无非就是打磨一下体验。\n资本开始追逐新的潮流科技单品:电动汽车、机器人、未来的元宇宙设备……反正手机已经不性感了,不信你看,连小米、华为甚至OPPO都要造车去了,至于手机,就让它逐渐平庸化吧,反正还能赚钱就行。\n从商业上讲,手机曾经是消费品王者,手机公司多么牛X。但如今,不管他们如何宣传自己的技术、创意,手机作为消费品可能跟柴米油盐酱醋茶差不多了,它确实很贵,也更有科技含量,但已经不再是能让人们消费、谈论、甚至惊叹的创新潮流。\n智能手机的黄金时代过去了,我很怀念它。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886423348,"gmtCreate":1631618408784,"gmtModify":1631889592832,"author":{"id":"3579605723262688","authorId":"3579605723262688","name":" . 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