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資本大師韮皇

07-11

$CRM 20240712 257.5 CALL$ 又得得哋[得意]

資本大師韮皇

07-04

未来可期，向8进发[财迷]

資本大師韮皇

06-19

老虎邀请函

查看详情：老虎邀请函我在老虎国际获得超多大奖，快来查看你有什么奖励吧！此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

老虎邀请函

資本大師韮皇

06-13

犀利犀利！争取成为股东[得意]

資本大師韮皇

06-07

再次大战华尔街 [得意]

資本大師韮皇

05-21

值得深思[微笑]

夜读 | 投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待

資本大師韮皇

05-17

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 肯定唔会啦，相信贾老板好有诚意[财迷]

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又得得哋[得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e3d5f9c6b9867b12a866c865cbfa16b","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326208163578104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323737108103256,"gmtCreate":1720059482388,"gmtModify":1720059484262,"author":{"id":"3578965707176459","authorId":"3578965707176459","name":"資本大師韮皇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d640b2b8d4e9f5b4661fb0c1fa779f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"未来可期，向8进发[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"未来可期，向8进发[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"未来可期，向8进发[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323737108103256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":90,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318519442223296,"gmtCreate":1718776988185,"gmtModify":1718779270243,"author":{"id":"3578965707176459","authorId":"3578965707176459","name":"資本大師韮皇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d640b2b8d4e9f5b4661fb0c1fa779f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"老虎邀请函","htmlText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8z138B\">老虎邀请函</a> 我在老虎国际获得超多大奖，快来查看你有什么奖励吧！ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/8z138B\">老虎邀请函</a> 我在老虎国际获得超多大奖，快来查看你有什么奖励吧！ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情：老虎邀请函 我在老虎国际获得超多大奖，快来查看你有什么奖励吧！ 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff98eccfaff055c5a7c86bee57069e0c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318519442223296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316361962905872,"gmtCreate":1718263096262,"gmtModify":1718263396739,"author":{"id":"3578965707176459","authorId":"3578965707176459","name":"資本大師韮皇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d640b2b8d4e9f5b4661fb0c1fa779f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"犀利犀利！争取成为股东[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"犀利犀利！争取成为股东[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"犀利犀利！争取成为股东[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316361962905872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314241495777592,"gmtCreate":1717739426472,"gmtModify":1717739845759,"author":{"id":"3578965707176459","authorId":"3578965707176459","name":"資本大師韮皇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d640b2b8d4e9f5b4661fb0c1fa779f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"再次大战华尔街 [得意]","listText":"再次大战华尔街 [得意]","text":"再次大战华尔街 [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314241495777592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308093087240360,"gmtCreate":1716239878431,"gmtModify":1716243747922,"author":{"id":"3578965707176459","authorId":"3578965707176459","name":"資本大師韮皇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d640b2b8d4e9f5b4661fb0c1fa779f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"值得深思[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"值得深思[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"值得深思[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308093087240360","repostId":"1149103316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149103316","pubTimestamp":1716218146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149103316?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-20 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读 | 投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149103316","media":"期乐会","summary":"投资分析的核心是商业理解力和概率思维，投资交易的核心是赔率和逆向思维，等待的核心是谨守能力圈和尊重常识。然而相比之下，最难的还是学会等待。优秀的业绩只是结果，导致这一结果的原因才是本质。由此可见，PE反映的是预期溢价，而PB反映的是资产溢价。通常预期的反映远早于ROE的实际变动，而PB则相对同步或者滞后于ROE的变动。所谓模糊的正确，其实就是具体的PE和PB可以相对模糊，但ROE的趋势性判断一定要正确。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待。投资分析的核心是商业理解力和概率思维，投资交易的核心是赔率和逆向思维，等待的核心是谨守能力圈和尊重常识。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一、</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从长期来看，优秀的交易无法挽救糟糕的分析，优秀的分析却可能毁于糟糕的交易。然而相比之下，最难的还是学会等待。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>投资业绩都是后验的，但每一笔投资的中长期概率和赔率却是可以事先决定的。优秀的业绩只是结果，导致这一结果的原因才是本质。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">努力、天赋和运气可能是最重要的3个原因：在正确的方向上努力会给你一个成功的下限，天赋决定了成长的效率和时间成本，而运气总会给坚持正确的人以意外的惊喜。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">成功的投资人与其说是精于计算和选择，不如说是他们更懂得放弃和坚持；与其说是能耳听六路眼光八方，不如说是始终心无旁骛的保持专注；与其说是天赋异禀见识超常，不如说是更能深刻看到自身的局限性，清楚知道市场中的可为与不可为。所谓的投资大神，不是他们获得了神秘的天启，只不过是忠诚于复利并永远践行罢了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>懂复利的人都明白，复利的可持续性与盈利能力是矛盾（这与ROE类似），高复利与长周期不可兼得</strong>，其中以巴菲特的50年近25%为人类目前的极限（那些只看高复利不看时间就称战胜巴菲特的，基本还没摸着投资的毛）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在高复利之后向着均值回归是必然的，这其中既有客观因素，也有主观因素。<strong>投资生涯里最好的情景是：初期高复利，之后稳健但极强的持续性。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2736527380\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">二、</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资在某个阶段特别容易沉溺于“完美系统的构建”，然而这与终身致力于制造永动机的差别并不大。系统越是繁复、思维越是沉溺于细节，其实与投资的本质就距离越远。投资做得越久越能体会到，最可依靠的是质朴简洁却击中本质的方法论，最应重视的是大格局和战略上的成功。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>对一个投资人来说，比较危险的一种情况是早早的拥有“真理在握”的感觉。如果同时再无聊点儿或者争强好胜些，对稍微不同道者就口诛笔伐，那基本上说明没啥进步的余地了。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资当然是有毫不可动摇的基本原则，但投资的不同要素的权重却没有什么“神圣模型”。当然这不是说见异思迁，而是保持思维的开放性，这其实也是一种能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">集中还是分散好？如果从特定阶段性角度考虑，取决于鱼（弹性）与熊掌（安全性）哪个对你更重要。如果从长期常态来考虑，集中似乎代表了对公司挖掘和分析的高度自信。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但转念一想，如果真那么自信，理应可以挖掘到更多优秀的标的并适度分散啊。当然这本质上是个度的问题，最终讲究的是研究深度与仓位效益的匹配、投资弹性与风险分散的适中。</p><h2 id=\"id_1929300664\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">三、</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资决策环节涉及的要素很多，但如果精炼总结下可能有三点最关键：<strong>1、大局观。就是清楚你处于整个市场周期的什么位置，是该恐惧、贪婪还是麻木；2、价值判断。下注要瞄准在未来优势类别的对象上，与时间做朋友；3、预期差。明确价值判断的假设和估值所包含的预期，当出现高度预期差的时机时保持敏感度。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资神话里都是百战百胜的故事，但现实其实很骨感，即便是巴菲特都承认不断在犯错。然而为什么有的人一犯错就致命，有的犯了错并不导致严重损失呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">区别在于：1、主观上是否承认自己是会犯错的凡人？2、客观上是否善于用安全边际保护自己？3、是否分散了风险并用良好赔率弥补？所以损失是取决于错误的预处理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从PB=PE*ROE这个公式来看，当ROE=8%的时候，即便PE是35倍但PB却只有2.8倍。若公司能够持续成长，ROE提升到25%，则届时的PE在25的时候，PB却反而提升到了6.25倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由此可见，PE反映的是预期溢价，而PB反映的是资产溢价。通常预期的反映远早于ROE的实际变动，而PB则相对同步或者滞后于ROE的变动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从其中还可以理解，ROE本身的变化趋势是估值的核心要素，估值的最大奥秘不是对指标的简单加减乘除，而是对企业未来盈利能力的前瞻性判断，是对公司经营阶段的准确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>所谓模糊的正确，其实就是具体的PE和PB可以相对模糊（或者说可针对性分析），但ROE的趋势性判断一定要正确。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高ROE是公司盈利能力的体现，又高又可持续的ROE是公司强大竞争优势的体现。那么对这么好的公司，市场绝大多数情况下必然给予资本溢价，也就是较高的PB。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>夜读 | 投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读 | 投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-20 23:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gd__6t2PijdYu9_MqRwfqg?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A33%2C%22promote_content%22%3A%22nn%3Apost%3A42436264%22%2C%22invite%22%3A16259313%7D><strong>期乐会</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待。投资分析的核心是商业理解力和概率思维，投资交易的核心是赔率和逆向思维，等待的核心是谨守能力圈和尊重常识。一、从长期来看，优秀的交易无法挽救糟糕的分析，优秀的分析却可能毁于糟糕的交易。然而相比之下，最难的还是学会等待。投资业绩都是后验的，但每一笔投资的中长期概率和赔率却是可以事先决定的。优秀的业绩只是结果，导致这一结果的原因才是本质。努力、天赋和运气...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gd__6t2PijdYu9_MqRwfqg?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A33%2C%22promote_content%22%3A%22nn%3Apost%3A42436264%22%2C%22invite%22%3A16259313%7D\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gd__6t2PijdYu9_MqRwfqg?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A33%2C%22promote_content%22%3A%22nn%3Apost%3A42436264%22%2C%22invite%22%3A16259313%7D","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149103316","content_text":"投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待。投资分析的核心是商业理解力和概率思维，投资交易的核心是赔率和逆向思维，等待的核心是谨守能力圈和尊重常识。一、从长期来看，优秀的交易无法挽救糟糕的分析，优秀的分析却可能毁于糟糕的交易。然而相比之下，最难的还是学会等待。投资业绩都是后验的，但每一笔投资的中长期概率和赔率却是可以事先决定的。优秀的业绩只是结果，导致这一结果的原因才是本质。努力、天赋和运气可能是最重要的3个原因：在正确的方向上努力会给你一个成功的下限，天赋决定了成长的效率和时间成本，而运气总会给坚持正确的人以意外的惊喜。成功的投资人与其说是精于计算和选择，不如说是他们更懂得放弃和坚持；与其说是能耳听六路眼光八方，不如说是始终心无旁骛的保持专注；与其说是天赋异禀见识超常，不如说是更能深刻看到自身的局限性，清楚知道市场中的可为与不可为。所谓的投资大神，不是他们获得了神秘的天启，只不过是忠诚于复利并永远践行罢了。懂复利的人都明白，复利的可持续性与盈利能力是矛盾（这与ROE类似），高复利与长周期不可兼得，其中以巴菲特的50年近25%为人类目前的极限（那些只看高复利不看时间就称战胜巴菲特的，基本还没摸着投资的毛）。在高复利之后向着均值回归是必然的，这其中既有客观因素，也有主观因素。投资生涯里最好的情景是：初期高复利，之后稳健但极强的持续性。二、投资在某个阶段特别容易沉溺于“完美系统的构建”，然而这与终身致力于制造永动机的差别并不大。系统越是繁复、思维越是沉溺于细节，其实与投资的本质就距离越远。投资做得越久越能体会到，最可依靠的是质朴简洁却击中本质的方法论，最应重视的是大格局和战略上的成功。对一个投资人来说，比较危险的一种情况是早早的拥有“真理在握”的感觉。如果同时再无聊点儿或者争强好胜些，对稍微不同道者就口诛笔伐，那基本上说明没啥进步的余地了。投资当然是有毫不可动摇的基本原则，但投资的不同要素的权重却没有什么“神圣模型”。当然这不是说见异思迁，而是保持思维的开放性，这其实也是一种能力。集中还是分散好？如果从特定阶段性角度考虑，取决于鱼（弹性）与熊掌（安全性）哪个对你更重要。如果从长期常态来考虑，集中似乎代表了对公司挖掘和分析的高度自信。但转念一想，如果真那么自信，理应可以挖掘到更多优秀的标的并适度分散啊。当然这本质上是个度的问题，最终讲究的是研究深度与仓位效益的匹配、投资弹性与风险分散的适中。三、投资决策环节涉及的要素很多，但如果精炼总结下可能有三点最关键：1、大局观。就是清楚你处于整个市场周期的什么位置，是该恐惧、贪婪还是麻木；2、价值判断。下注要瞄准在未来优势类别的对象上，与时间做朋友；3、预期差。明确价值判断的假设和估值所包含的预期，当出现高度预期差的时机时保持敏感度。投资神话里都是百战百胜的故事，但现实其实很骨感，即便是巴菲特都承认不断在犯错。然而为什么有的人一犯错就致命，有的犯了错并不导致严重损失呢？区别在于：1、主观上是否承认自己是会犯错的凡人？2、客观上是否善于用安全边际保护自己？3、是否分散了风险并用良好赔率弥补？所以损失是取决于错误的预处理。从PB=PE*ROE这个公式来看，当ROE=8%的时候，即便PE是35倍但PB却只有2.8倍。若公司能够持续成长，ROE提升到25%，则届时的PE在25的时候，PB却反而提升到了6.25倍。由此可见，PE反映的是预期溢价，而PB反映的是资产溢价。通常预期的反映远早于ROE的实际变动，而PB则相对同步或者滞后于ROE的变动。从其中还可以理解，ROE本身的变化趋势是估值的核心要素，估值的最大奥秘不是对指标的简单加减乘除，而是对企业未来盈利能力的前瞻性判断，是对公司经营阶段的准确定性。所谓模糊的正确，其实就是具体的PE和PB可以相对模糊（或者说可针对性分析），但ROE的趋势性判断一定要正确。高ROE是公司盈利能力的体现，又高又可持续的ROE是公司强大竞争优势的体现。那么对这么好的公司，市场绝大多数情况下必然给予资本溢价，也就是较高的PB。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306758760648920,"gmtCreate":1715926846944,"gmtModify":1715927095502,"author":{"id":"3578965707176459","authorId":"3578965707176459","name":"資本大師韮皇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d640b2b8d4e9f5b4661fb0c1fa779f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[得意]","listText":"再次大战华尔街 [得意]","text":"再次大战华尔街 [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314241495777592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308093087240360,"gmtCreate":1716239878431,"gmtModify":1716243747922,"author":{"id":"3578965707176459","authorId":"3578965707176459","name":"資本大師韮皇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d640b2b8d4e9f5b4661fb0c1fa779f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"值得深思[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"值得深思[微笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"值得深思[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308093087240360","repostId":"1149103316","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149103316","pubTimestamp":1716218146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149103316?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-20 23:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读 | 投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149103316","media":"期乐会","summary":"投资分析的核心是商业理解力和概率思维，投资交易的核心是赔率和逆向思维，等待的核心是谨守能力圈和尊重常识。然而相比之下，最难的还是学会等待。优秀的业绩只是结果，导致这一结果的原因才是本质。由此可见，PE反映的是预期溢价，而PB反映的是资产溢价。通常预期的反映远早于ROE的实际变动，而PB则相对同步或者滞后于ROE的变动。所谓模糊的正确，其实就是具体的PE和PB可以相对模糊，但ROE的趋势性判断一定要正确。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待。投资分析的核心是商业理解力和概率思维，投资交易的核心是赔率和逆向思维，等待的核心是谨守能力圈和尊重常识。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一、</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从长期来看，优秀的交易无法挽救糟糕的分析，优秀的分析却可能毁于糟糕的交易。然而相比之下，最难的还是学会等待。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>投资业绩都是后验的，但每一笔投资的中长期概率和赔率却是可以事先决定的。优秀的业绩只是结果，导致这一结果的原因才是本质。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">努力、天赋和运气可能是最重要的3个原因：在正确的方向上努力会给你一个成功的下限，天赋决定了成长的效率和时间成本，而运气总会给坚持正确的人以意外的惊喜。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">成功的投资人与其说是精于计算和选择，不如说是他们更懂得放弃和坚持；与其说是能耳听六路眼光八方，不如说是始终心无旁骛的保持专注；与其说是天赋异禀见识超常，不如说是更能深刻看到自身的局限性，清楚知道市场中的可为与不可为。所谓的投资大神，不是他们获得了神秘的天启，只不过是忠诚于复利并永远践行罢了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>懂复利的人都明白，复利的可持续性与盈利能力是矛盾（这与ROE类似），高复利与长周期不可兼得</strong>，其中以巴菲特的50年近25%为人类目前的极限（那些只看高复利不看时间就称战胜巴菲特的，基本还没摸着投资的毛）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在高复利之后向着均值回归是必然的，这其中既有客观因素，也有主观因素。<strong>投资生涯里最好的情景是：初期高复利，之后稳健但极强的持续性。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2736527380\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">二、</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资在某个阶段特别容易沉溺于“完美系统的构建”，然而这与终身致力于制造永动机的差别并不大。系统越是繁复、思维越是沉溺于细节，其实与投资的本质就距离越远。投资做得越久越能体会到，最可依靠的是质朴简洁却击中本质的方法论，最应重视的是大格局和战略上的成功。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>对一个投资人来说，比较危险的一种情况是早早的拥有“真理在握”的感觉。如果同时再无聊点儿或者争强好胜些，对稍微不同道者就口诛笔伐，那基本上说明没啥进步的余地了。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资当然是有毫不可动摇的基本原则，但投资的不同要素的权重却没有什么“神圣模型”。当然这不是说见异思迁，而是保持思维的开放性，这其实也是一种能力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">集中还是分散好？如果从特定阶段性角度考虑，取决于鱼（弹性）与熊掌（安全性）哪个对你更重要。如果从长期常态来考虑，集中似乎代表了对公司挖掘和分析的高度自信。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但转念一想，如果真那么自信，理应可以挖掘到更多优秀的标的并适度分散啊。当然这本质上是个度的问题，最终讲究的是研究深度与仓位效益的匹配、投资弹性与风险分散的适中。</p><h2 id=\"id_1929300664\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">三、</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资决策环节涉及的要素很多，但如果精炼总结下可能有三点最关键：<strong>1、大局观。就是清楚你处于整个市场周期的什么位置，是该恐惧、贪婪还是麻木；2、价值判断。下注要瞄准在未来优势类别的对象上，与时间做朋友；3、预期差。明确价值判断的假设和估值所包含的预期，当出现高度预期差的时机时保持敏感度。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资神话里都是百战百胜的故事，但现实其实很骨感，即便是巴菲特都承认不断在犯错。然而为什么有的人一犯错就致命，有的犯了错并不导致严重损失呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">区别在于：1、主观上是否承认自己是会犯错的凡人？2、客观上是否善于用安全边际保护自己？3、是否分散了风险并用良好赔率弥补？所以损失是取决于错误的预处理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从PB=PE*ROE这个公式来看，当ROE=8%的时候，即便PE是35倍但PB却只有2.8倍。若公司能够持续成长，ROE提升到25%，则届时的PE在25的时候，PB却反而提升到了6.25倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由此可见，PE反映的是预期溢价，而PB反映的是资产溢价。通常预期的反映远早于ROE的实际变动，而PB则相对同步或者滞后于ROE的变动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从其中还可以理解，ROE本身的变化趋势是估值的核心要素，估值的最大奥秘不是对指标的简单加减乘除，而是对企业未来盈利能力的前瞻性判断，是对公司经营阶段的准确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>所谓模糊的正确，其实就是具体的PE和PB可以相对模糊（或者说可针对性分析），但ROE的趋势性判断一定要正确。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高ROE是公司盈利能力的体现，又高又可持续的ROE是公司强大竞争优势的体现。那么对这么好的公司，市场绝大多数情况下必然给予资本溢价，也就是较高的PB。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>夜读 | 投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读 | 投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-20 23:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gd__6t2PijdYu9_MqRwfqg?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A33%2C%22promote_content%22%3A%22nn%3Apost%3A42436264%22%2C%22invite%22%3A16259313%7D><strong>期乐会</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待。投资分析的核心是商业理解力和概率思维，投资交易的核心是赔率和逆向思维，等待的核心是谨守能力圈和尊重常识。一、从长期来看，优秀的交易无法挽救糟糕的分析，优秀的分析却可能毁于糟糕的交易。然而相比之下，最难的还是学会等待。投资业绩都是后验的，但每一笔投资的中长期概率和赔率却是可以事先决定的。优秀的业绩只是结果，导致这一结果的原因才是本质。努力、天赋和运气...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gd__6t2PijdYu9_MqRwfqg?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A33%2C%22promote_content%22%3A%22nn%3Apost%3A42436264%22%2C%22invite%22%3A16259313%7D\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/gd__6t2PijdYu9_MqRwfqg?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A33%2C%22promote_content%22%3A%22nn%3Apost%3A42436264%22%2C%22invite%22%3A16259313%7D","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149103316","content_text":"投资的两端分别是分析和交易，而连接这两端的是等待。投资分析的核心是商业理解力和概率思维，投资交易的核心是赔率和逆向思维，等待的核心是谨守能力圈和尊重常识。一、从长期来看，优秀的交易无法挽救糟糕的分析，优秀的分析却可能毁于糟糕的交易。然而相比之下，最难的还是学会等待。投资业绩都是后验的，但每一笔投资的中长期概率和赔率却是可以事先决定的。优秀的业绩只是结果，导致这一结果的原因才是本质。努力、天赋和运气可能是最重要的3个原因：在正确的方向上努力会给你一个成功的下限，天赋决定了成长的效率和时间成本，而运气总会给坚持正确的人以意外的惊喜。成功的投资人与其说是精于计算和选择，不如说是他们更懂得放弃和坚持；与其说是能耳听六路眼光八方，不如说是始终心无旁骛的保持专注；与其说是天赋异禀见识超常，不如说是更能深刻看到自身的局限性，清楚知道市场中的可为与不可为。所谓的投资大神，不是他们获得了神秘的天启，只不过是忠诚于复利并永远践行罢了。懂复利的人都明白，复利的可持续性与盈利能力是矛盾（这与ROE类似），高复利与长周期不可兼得，其中以巴菲特的50年近25%为人类目前的极限（那些只看高复利不看时间就称战胜巴菲特的，基本还没摸着投资的毛）。在高复利之后向着均值回归是必然的，这其中既有客观因素，也有主观因素。投资生涯里最好的情景是：初期高复利，之后稳健但极强的持续性。二、投资在某个阶段特别容易沉溺于“完美系统的构建”，然而这与终身致力于制造永动机的差别并不大。系统越是繁复、思维越是沉溺于细节，其实与投资的本质就距离越远。投资做得越久越能体会到，最可依靠的是质朴简洁却击中本质的方法论，最应重视的是大格局和战略上的成功。对一个投资人来说，比较危险的一种情况是早早的拥有“真理在握”的感觉。如果同时再无聊点儿或者争强好胜些，对稍微不同道者就口诛笔伐，那基本上说明没啥进步的余地了。投资当然是有毫不可动摇的基本原则，但投资的不同要素的权重却没有什么“神圣模型”。当然这不是说见异思迁，而是保持思维的开放性，这其实也是一种能力。集中还是分散好？如果从特定阶段性角度考虑，取决于鱼（弹性）与熊掌（安全性）哪个对你更重要。如果从长期常态来考虑，集中似乎代表了对公司挖掘和分析的高度自信。但转念一想，如果真那么自信，理应可以挖掘到更多优秀的标的并适度分散啊。当然这本质上是个度的问题，最终讲究的是研究深度与仓位效益的匹配、投资弹性与风险分散的适中。三、投资决策环节涉及的要素很多，但如果精炼总结下可能有三点最关键：1、大局观。就是清楚你处于整个市场周期的什么位置，是该恐惧、贪婪还是麻木；2、价值判断。下注要瞄准在未来优势类别的对象上，与时间做朋友；3、预期差。明确价值判断的假设和估值所包含的预期，当出现高度预期差的时机时保持敏感度。投资神话里都是百战百胜的故事，但现实其实很骨感，即便是巴菲特都承认不断在犯错。然而为什么有的人一犯错就致命，有的犯了错并不导致严重损失呢？区别在于：1、主观上是否承认自己是会犯错的凡人？2、客观上是否善于用安全边际保护自己？3、是否分散了风险并用良好赔率弥补？所以损失是取决于错误的预处理。从PB=PE*ROE这个公式来看，当ROE=8%的时候，即便PE是35倍但PB却只有2.8倍。若公司能够持续成长，ROE提升到25%，则届时的PE在25的时候，PB却反而提升到了6.25倍。由此可见，PE反映的是预期溢价，而PB反映的是资产溢价。通常预期的反映远早于ROE的实际变动，而PB则相对同步或者滞后于ROE的变动。从其中还可以理解，ROE本身的变化趋势是估值的核心要素，估值的最大奥秘不是对指标的简单加减乘除，而是对企业未来盈利能力的前瞻性判断，是对公司经营阶段的准确定性。所谓模糊的正确，其实就是具体的PE和PB可以相对模糊（或者说可针对性分析），但ROE的趋势性判断一定要正确。高ROE是公司盈利能力的体现，又高又可持续的ROE是公司强大竞争优势的体现。那么对这么好的公司，市场绝大多数情况下必然给予资本溢价，也就是较高的PB。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306758760648920,"gmtCreate":1715926846944,"gmtModify":1715927095502,"author":{"id":"3578965707176459","authorId":"3578965707176459","name":"資本大師韮皇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50d640b2b8d4e9f5b4661fb0c1fa779f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 肯定唔会啦，相信贾老板好有诚意[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 肯定唔会啦，相信贾老板好有诚意[财迷]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 肯定唔会啦，相信贾老板好有诚意[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306758760648920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}