请对我善良点的个人主页 - 老虎社区

请对我善良点

请对我善良点

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请对我善良点

2021-07-29

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$我该抱着怎样的心态？ [难过]

请对我善良点

2021-08-07

$维珍银河(SPCE)$唯一一个绿的

请对我善良点

2021-08-04

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$终于绿了

请对我善良点

2021-08-01

$AMC院线(AMC)$继续持有，直到曙光出现

请对我善良点

2021-06-10

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$今晚还有希望吗？

请对我善良点

2021-07-14

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$不会放弃的

请对我善良点

2021-07-06

$蔚来(NIO)$今晚有机会吗 🤔？

请对我善良点

2021-08-16

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$耐心等待，总会等到你的

请对我善良点

2021-08-11

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$你怎么了

请对我善良点

2021-08-08

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$期待你明天的表现

请对我善良点

2021-07-25

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$什么时候回来？

请对我善良点

2021-06-14

$黑莓(BB)$今晚上吗？

请对我善良点

2021-07-23

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$埋伏…

请对我善良点

2021-07-17

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$无语😓

请对我善良点

2021-07-15

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$什么时候回来？

请对我善良点

2021-07-12

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$今晚还是不上不下吗？

请对我善良点

2021-06-08

$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$稳住

请对我善良点

2021-08-10

$IMV Inc(IMV)$有机会绿色吗？

请对我善良点

2021-07-19

$Aehr Test Systems(AEHR)$惊喜来了

请对我善良点

2021-05-23

真的吗?

比特币已成美股最大黑天鹅

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Systems(AEHR)$惊喜来了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed367ef07844e48fc07d58749529e","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171088577","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":133483051,"gmtCreate":1621782721373,"gmtModify":1631890956756,"author":{"id":"3578866938376185","authorId":"3578866938376185","name":"请对我善良点","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5515abaaba46d935312343148b97579f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真的吗?","listText":"真的吗?","text":"真的吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133483051","repostId":"2137184938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137184938","pubTimestamp":1621760899,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2137184938?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-23 17:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"比特币已成美股最大黑天鹅","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137184938","media":"智通财经网","summary":"比特币如今和股市的关联越来越高，马斯克和木头姐可以说起了非常大的作用。","content":"<p>经历了上蹿下跳的周五后，三大股指横盘震荡了一周，纳指收涨0.3%，道指收跌0.5%，标普收跌0.4%，单看这个波动，似乎美股整体波动并不大，但我们不妨以纳指本周五天的走势来进行复盘下：</p>\n<p>周一纳指开盘跌0.2%，盘中迅速跳水一度跌幅高达1.2%，尾盘又给迅速拉升了回来，最终收跌0.38%；</p>\n<p>周二纳指开盘涨0.2%，盘中迅速拉升一度涨幅高达0.8%，但很快又急速跳水，最终反而收跌0.58%。</p>\n<p>周三纳指大幅低开1.5%，开盘稍微震荡了一回，纳指迅速触底回升，最终仅仅收跌0.03%，很多个股纷纷暴涨。</p>\n<p>周四纳指高开0.54%，开盘之后多头一路不回头，从开盘拉升到收盘，创下了3月以来最佳单日涨幅，收涨1.77%。</p>\n<p>周五纳指高开0.5%，延续了周四的热情，但很快在比特币的带动下，股指迅速跳水，最终收跌0.48%。</p>\n<p>回顾过去一周的走势，细心的小伙伴其实应该发现了，美股现在日内的波动很明显的放大了。一份美国公布的数据，一个美联储官员的讲话，甚至比特币的暴涨暴跌，这些都对股指造成了不小的波动。</p>\n<p>如果我们非常熟悉股指运行的规律，那么应该清楚一件事，那就是当股指在高位波动放大的时候，往往是因为市场投机心理比较重，找不到什么明确的方向。一有利好就暴涨，一有利空就暴跌。</p>\n<p>拿大宗商品和基建赛道来说吧，前段时间涨的真心非常不错，然后就因为美国4月房屋营建数据稍微不及预期，这些板块就迎来了一波比较大的回撤，完全没有任何规律和征兆可言。</p>\n<p>赚钱难，波动大，到现在为止，我们又不能说美股进入熊市了，毕竟很多公司还在持续上涨，股指也在绝对的高位，但很多朋友却在今年亏了大钱，这也是共识。</p>\n<p>回到这周的波动上来，美股之所以波动这么大，比特币这个黑天鹅可以说居功至伟。马斯克的两条<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>成功告诉了市场，比特币压根就不具备任何避险作用，这只是机构收割韭菜的工具。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78d6f08f4fc91eee470f1290b966f3b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>很多机构投资比特币，因为他们相信比特币可以跑赢通胀这个故事，但现在却发现连本金都要面临腰斩，这个过去一年上涨的基本面逻辑彻底崩盘，比特币泡沫破灭已进入倒计时。</p>\n<p>比特币的暴跌，我早在两周之前就再三告诫大家，这背后的技术形态可以说清晰可见。每一次周K Macd形成死亡交叉，那就是比特币泡沫破灭的信号，每一次跌到200周均线，比特币又会触底反弹。按照过去的经验来看，比特币跌到18000美元是时间问题，这个接下来必然会成为美股最大的黑天鹅。</p>\n<p>比特币如今和股市的关联越来越高，马斯克和木头姐可以说起了非常大的作用。自从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)宣布买了比特币之后，特斯拉就进入了下跌趋势中，股价就从900美元一路跌到现在的580美元，并且很有可能进一步跌到450美元左右，短期是难以翻身了。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78f82539012bbeca31e75627874f30a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ARK和木头姐那是比特币最大的忠实簇拥，木头姐在Coinbase上市的短短一个月时间，疯狂抄底买入了10亿美元的Coinbase，也差不多亏损了3亿美刀。ARKK里面的重要成分股TSLA、SQ、GBTC这类都和比特币高度相关，可以说整个EFT至少有20%的权重都是比特币概念股。</p>\n<p>TSLA现在权重非常之高，这是整个二线成长股的龙头，对标普和纳指可以说影响深远，一旦TSLA进一步下跌，纳指很难说有好的表现。至于ARKK，一旦几大比特币概念股暴跌，那必然会带着其他成分股一起跌，这背后的连锁反应也是如今股市和比特币关联度越来越高的主要原因。</p>\n<p>假如比特币真的在监管政策下跌到18000美元，那会造成怎样的影响？首先是TSLA还持有的那13亿美元的比特币，价值怕是要直接腰斩，这将意味着TSLA在比特币上可能亏5亿美刀；其次是SQ以5万美元成本买入的那1.5亿美元比特币，也可能会带来超1亿美元的亏损。COIN则因为比特币价格暴跌，导致成交量萎靡，进一步导致业绩大幅缩水。</p>\n<p>对于TSLA、SQ这些没什么利润的成长股来说，这恐怕是致命的。它们过去的高估值建立在主营业务的想象力上，但如今却很可能被比特币带入泥潭。最近大家其实应该已经有深刻体会了，这些比特币概念股明显跑输了整个市场，这背后反映了一件事：投资者不喜欢高度不确定性的比特币。</p>\n<p>其实TSLA、SQ和ARKK这些和比特币直接关联标的，说实话倒不是特别担心，毕竟我们已经做好了心理准备。我最担心的是对NVDA的影响，因为这是芯片赛道的绝对龙头。NVDA过去一年的业绩超预期的增长，这和比特币牛市对显卡需求增长有莫大关联。</p>\n<p>NVDA现在这么高的估值，明面上的原因，显卡价格暴涨，市场认为需求太旺盛了，供不应求，暗地里的原因，谁知是不是因为挖矿。NVDA的营收规模连INTC的三分之一都不到，市值却是别人的1.5倍，这是建立在高增长的基础上，一旦高增长高需求这个逻辑没了，大概率就会被杀估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daedf48e9d4e5d899d6f8bcf04866910\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这里或许有必要复盘下，2018年比特币泡沫破灭时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)的走势。英伟达公布三季度财报之后，当天暴跌18%，紧接着第二天再度暴跌12%，两天跌幅高达30%，等到四季度公布财报的时候，英伟达又一次暴跌14%。当时英伟达股价暴跌的原因，基本和英伟达当下的市场环境高度雷同。</p>\n<p>如果NVDA真的因为比特币价格崩盘遭遇2018年一样的困境，那整体芯片的估值恐怕就会往下杀一杀，纳指回撤也成了大概率事件。NVDA是整个芯片板块的估值风向标，一旦龙头暴跌，整个板块必然会面临大幅回撤。</p>\n<p>这个其实又要回到经济周期的规律上来，我们都知道一个完整的经济周期是这样的：主动补库存，被动补库存，主动去库存，被动去库存四个阶段。</p>\n<p>有人说，芯片产能短缺主要原因是5G需求、AI和电动汽车带动的芯片快速增长需求。我觉得这不是主要原因，2G转3G没有出现产能短缺，3G转4G也没有出现。如果说是电动汽车，特斯拉为代表的电动汽车出现已经好几年了，市场也不是瞬间起来的。</p>\n<p>去年因为疫情，芯片的供应链出现了很大的问题，造成了很严重的短缺现象，今年恢复生产之后，很多企业出于对未来的担忧，开始主动补库存，造成市场供不应求，芯片代工厂则觉得市场真实需求确实有这么大，所以就开足马力建工厂生产更多芯片。</p>\n<p>但问题也来了，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>(TSM.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">联电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>(00981)等晶圆厂在两年前为何没有实际的大力扩产计划呢？他们都看不到今天的芯片需求吗？不知道随着5G的到来，万物互联将产生爆发性的增长，对芯片的需求将剧增吗？看不到在两年前特斯拉为代表的电动车会大行其道吗？看不到电动汽车对芯片需求的巨大市场吗？</p>\n<p>经济学上有两个著名的现象，一个是牛鞭效应，指供应链上的一种需求变异放大现象，信息从最终客户端向原始供应商端传递时，无法有效地实现信息共享，使得信息扭曲而逐级放大，导致了需求信息出现越来越大的波动。另一个是银行挤兑效应，这是指大量的银行客户同时到银行提取现金的现象，产生了一种突发性、集中性、危害性的危机。</p>\n<p>芯片产能严重短缺很大程度上是晶圆厂和封测厂在产能交付长的心理影响下，&nbsp;极大的预期差给芯片产业带来极大的需求牛鞭效应和银行挤兑现象。生产商放大需求预测和加大安全库存；芯片渠道商/代理商开始做更多的库存和抬高价格，芯片设计公司根据新的需求和更长的生产交期开始下半年度/年度订单；晶圆厂根据芯片设计公司订单排生产。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e0a715309d24a01e8e979f5fba91b98\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>芯片产业链这根牛鞭越长，结果误差越大，有多少重复性订单没有人知道。如今真实需求到底如何？最近的几个数据或许可以说明一些问题，其一是中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车零售销量环比3月份下降12.0%，TSLA的环比销量更是下跌67.1%；其二是智能手机市场销量4月环比下降34.1%，智能音箱市场销量环比下降12.0%；其三是印度智能手机市场因为疫情，整体销量下滑了超25%。</p>\n<p>从这些数据可以看到，芯片短缺或许并不完全是因为消费端需求的增长，而更多是因为企业对未来供应链担忧的补库存预期。芯片上游终端的上涨，又会最终将价格上涨传导给消费端，价格的上涨将导致终端消费者需求量的减少，需求弹性越大，终端消费者需求量减少越明显。</p>\n<p>去年受到美国制裁的中国华为，2021年的智能手机产量计划降至2020年一半以下，华为对芯片需求的消失，原本应该释放出大量相关产能，但出乎业界预料的是，由于种种因素叠加影响，全球芯片供需矛盾反而进一步加大，从汽车领域开始，手机、电脑、游戏机等多个行业相继出现“缺芯”难题。</p>\n<p>但再看下智能手机市场，荣耀今年出货目标由5000万台下调到3500万台，下调幅度为30%；一加今年出货目标由2000万台下调到1200万台，下调幅度高达40%；Realme今年出货目标由8500万台修正到6000万台，下修幅度29%。</p>\n<p>对未来的不确定，大多数厂商因为恐慌心理而选择备货。大家都在囤货，加剧了对产能资源的争夺，压货不出导致大量库存积压。去年的疫情重创元器件供应链引发市场缺货恐慌让手机厂商囤货更加激进，1.5倍甚至是2倍的库存规划都并不少见。</p>\n<p>比如，Realme中国区总裁徐起就公开表示备货提前备了一年的量；小米高管卢伟冰公开表示，骁龙870备货量更是友商的两倍。另一方面，华为被美国制裁受打击，其他手机厂商害怕重蹈覆辙华为的路子，也在芯片库存上采取了大胆的库存策略。</p>\n<p>说了这么多，或许大家也应该看明白了，这其中最大的变量那就是比特币。比特币价格的上涨，进一步催生了对显卡、硬盘、矿机的异常庞大需求，一定程度上加剧了智能手机、智能音箱和PC笔记本等消费终端芯片的供应不足，间接加强了芯片短期供不应求的预期，芯片价格暴涨又让企业加大力度囤货。</p>\n<p>当美联储收紧货币政策，必然会对引发比特币价格的波动，一旦比特币价格崩盘呢？芯片产能得到释放，所有的供需不平衡现象将得到缓解，芯片赛道恐怕将进入去库存周期，整个芯片赛道恐怕要经历巨大的波动，而芯片对科技股的影响远远大于比特币概念股，届时美股必然迎来雪崩。</p>\n<p>比特币本身并不是太重要，即使能影响包括TSLA、SQ在内的比特币概念股，对大盘也造成不了太大的影响，我真正担心的是矿机价格崩盘，造成芯片市场需求预期的变化，进一步影响芯片赛道的库存周期，这可能才是我们迫切需要关注的。</p>\n<p>现在我们可能需要时刻关注比特币价格波动的变化，一旦再次跌破33000美元的重要支撑，整个市场或许将迎来一个重点拐点。如果未来美股崩盘，那比特币一定居功至伟。</p>\n<p><b>本文选编自“美股研究社”，作者：li俊，智通财经编辑：张金亮。</b></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>比特币已成美股最大黑天鹅</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n比特币已成美股最大黑天鹅\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-23 17:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/480029.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经历了上蹿下跳的周五后，三大股指横盘震荡了一周，纳指收涨0.3%，道指收跌0.5%，标普收跌0.4%，单看这个波动，似乎美股整体波动并不大，但我们不妨以纳指本周五天的走势来进行复盘下：\n周一纳指开盘跌0.2%，盘中迅速跳水一度跌幅高达1.2%，尾盘又给迅速拉升了回来，最终收跌0.38%；\n周二纳指开盘涨0.2%，盘中迅速拉升一度涨幅高达0.8%，但很快又急速跳水，最终反而收跌0.58%。\n周三纳指...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/480029.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cecda063bf27369edd749dab9a43dcea","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/480029.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2137184938","content_text":"经历了上蹿下跳的周五后，三大股指横盘震荡了一周，纳指收涨0.3%，道指收跌0.5%，标普收跌0.4%，单看这个波动，似乎美股整体波动并不大，但我们不妨以纳指本周五天的走势来进行复盘下：\n周一纳指开盘跌0.2%，盘中迅速跳水一度跌幅高达1.2%，尾盘又给迅速拉升了回来，最终收跌0.38%；\n周二纳指开盘涨0.2%，盘中迅速拉升一度涨幅高达0.8%，但很快又急速跳水，最终反而收跌0.58%。\n周三纳指大幅低开1.5%，开盘稍微震荡了一回，纳指迅速触底回升，最终仅仅收跌0.03%，很多个股纷纷暴涨。\n周四纳指高开0.54%，开盘之后多头一路不回头，从开盘拉升到收盘，创下了3月以来最佳单日涨幅，收涨1.77%。\n周五纳指高开0.5%，延续了周四的热情，但很快在比特币的带动下，股指迅速跳水，最终收跌0.48%。\n回顾过去一周的走势，细心的小伙伴其实应该发现了，美股现在日内的波动很明显的放大了。一份美国公布的数据，一个美联储官员的讲话，甚至比特币的暴涨暴跌，这些都对股指造成了不小的波动。\n如果我们非常熟悉股指运行的规律，那么应该清楚一件事，那就是当股指在高位波动放大的时候，往往是因为市场投机心理比较重，找不到什么明确的方向。一有利好就暴涨，一有利空就暴跌。\n拿大宗商品和基建赛道来说吧，前段时间涨的真心非常不错，然后就因为美国4月房屋营建数据稍微不及预期，这些板块就迎来了一波比较大的回撤，完全没有任何规律和征兆可言。\n赚钱难，波动大，到现在为止，我们又不能说美股进入熊市了，毕竟很多公司还在持续上涨，股指也在绝对的高位，但很多朋友却在今年亏了大钱，这也是共识。\n回到这周的波动上来，美股之所以波动这么大，比特币这个黑天鹅可以说居功至伟。马斯克的两条Twitter成功告诉了市场，比特币压根就不具备任何避险作用，这只是机构收割韭菜的工具。\n\n很多机构投资比特币，因为他们相信比特币可以跑赢通胀这个故事，但现在却发现连本金都要面临腰斩，这个过去一年上涨的基本面逻辑彻底崩盘，比特币泡沫破灭已进入倒计时。\n比特币的暴跌，我早在两周之前就再三告诫大家，这背后的技术形态可以说清晰可见。每一次周K Macd形成死亡交叉，那就是比特币泡沫破灭的信号，每一次跌到200周均线，比特币又会触底反弹。按照过去的经验来看，比特币跌到18000美元是时间问题，这个接下来必然会成为美股最大的黑天鹅。\n比特币如今和股市的关联越来越高，马斯克和木头姐可以说起了非常大的作用。自从特斯拉(TSLA.US)宣布买了比特币之后，特斯拉就进入了下跌趋势中，股价就从900美元一路跌到现在的580美元，并且很有可能进一步跌到450美元左右，短期是难以翻身了。\n\nARK和木头姐那是比特币最大的忠实簇拥，木头姐在Coinbase上市的短短一个月时间，疯狂抄底买入了10亿美元的Coinbase，也差不多亏损了3亿美刀。ARKK里面的重要成分股TSLA、SQ、GBTC这类都和比特币高度相关，可以说整个EFT至少有20%的权重都是比特币概念股。\nTSLA现在权重非常之高，这是整个二线成长股的龙头，对标普和纳指可以说影响深远，一旦TSLA进一步下跌，纳指很难说有好的表现。至于ARKK，一旦几大比特币概念股暴跌，那必然会带着其他成分股一起跌，这背后的连锁反应也是如今股市和比特币关联度越来越高的主要原因。\n假如比特币真的在监管政策下跌到18000美元，那会造成怎样的影响？首先是TSLA还持有的那13亿美元的比特币，价值怕是要直接腰斩，这将意味着TSLA在比特币上可能亏5亿美刀；其次是SQ以5万美元成本买入的那1.5亿美元比特币，也可能会带来超1亿美元的亏损。COIN则因为比特币价格暴跌，导致成交量萎靡，进一步导致业绩大幅缩水。\n对于TSLA、SQ这些没什么利润的成长股来说，这恐怕是致命的。它们过去的高估值建立在主营业务的想象力上，但如今却很可能被比特币带入泥潭。最近大家其实应该已经有深刻体会了，这些比特币概念股明显跑输了整个市场，这背后反映了一件事：投资者不喜欢高度不确定性的比特币。\n其实TSLA、SQ和ARKK这些和比特币直接关联标的，说实话倒不是特别担心，毕竟我们已经做好了心理准备。我最担心的是对NVDA的影响，因为这是芯片赛道的绝对龙头。NVDA过去一年的业绩超预期的增长，这和比特币牛市对显卡需求增长有莫大关联。\nNVDA现在这么高的估值，明面上的原因，显卡价格暴涨，市场认为需求太旺盛了，供不应求，暗地里的原因，谁知是不是因为挖矿。NVDA的营收规模连INTC的三分之一都不到，市值却是别人的1.5倍，这是建立在高增长的基础上，一旦高增长高需求这个逻辑没了，大概率就会被杀估值。\n\n这里或许有必要复盘下，2018年比特币泡沫破灭时英伟达(NVDA.US)的走势。英伟达公布三季度财报之后，当天暴跌18%，紧接着第二天再度暴跌12%，两天跌幅高达30%，等到四季度公布财报的时候，英伟达又一次暴跌14%。当时英伟达股价暴跌的原因，基本和英伟达当下的市场环境高度雷同。\n如果NVDA真的因为比特币价格崩盘遭遇2018年一样的困境，那整体芯片的估值恐怕就会往下杀一杀，纳指回撤也成了大概率事件。NVDA是整个芯片板块的估值风向标，一旦龙头暴跌，整个板块必然会面临大幅回撤。\n这个其实又要回到经济周期的规律上来，我们都知道一个完整的经济周期是这样的：主动补库存，被动补库存，主动去库存，被动去库存四个阶段。\n有人说，芯片产能短缺主要原因是5G需求、AI和电动汽车带动的芯片快速增长需求。我觉得这不是主要原因，2G转3G没有出现产能短缺，3G转4G也没有出现。如果说是电动汽车，特斯拉为代表的电动汽车出现已经好几年了，市场也不是瞬间起来的。\n去年因为疫情，芯片的供应链出现了很大的问题，造成了很严重的短缺现象，今年恢复生产之后，很多企业出于对未来的担忧，开始主动补库存，造成市场供不应求，芯片代工厂则觉得市场真实需求确实有这么大，所以就开足马力建工厂生产更多芯片。\n但问题也来了，台积电(TSM.US)、联电、中芯国际(00981)等晶圆厂在两年前为何没有实际的大力扩产计划呢？他们都看不到今天的芯片需求吗？不知道随着5G的到来，万物互联将产生爆发性的增长，对芯片的需求将剧增吗？看不到在两年前特斯拉为代表的电动车会大行其道吗？看不到电动汽车对芯片需求的巨大市场吗？\n经济学上有两个著名的现象，一个是牛鞭效应，指供应链上的一种需求变异放大现象，信息从最终客户端向原始供应商端传递时，无法有效地实现信息共享，使得信息扭曲而逐级放大，导致了需求信息出现越来越大的波动。另一个是银行挤兑效应，这是指大量的银行客户同时到银行提取现金的现象，产生了一种突发性、集中性、危害性的危机。\n芯片产能严重短缺很大程度上是晶圆厂和封测厂在产能交付长的心理影响下， 极大的预期差给芯片产业带来极大的需求牛鞭效应和银行挤兑现象。生产商放大需求预测和加大安全库存；芯片渠道商/代理商开始做更多的库存和抬高价格，芯片设计公司根据新的需求和更长的生产交期开始下半年度/年度订单；晶圆厂根据芯片设计公司订单排生产。\n\n芯片产业链这根牛鞭越长，结果误差越大，有多少重复性订单没有人知道。如今真实需求到底如何？最近的几个数据或许可以说明一些问题，其一是中国新能源汽车零售销量环比3月份下降12.0%，TSLA的环比销量更是下跌67.1%；其二是智能手机市场销量4月环比下降34.1%，智能音箱市场销量环比下降12.0%；其三是印度智能手机市场因为疫情，整体销量下滑了超25%。\n从这些数据可以看到，芯片短缺或许并不完全是因为消费端需求的增长，而更多是因为企业对未来供应链担忧的补库存预期。芯片上游终端的上涨，又会最终将价格上涨传导给消费端，价格的上涨将导致终端消费者需求量的减少，需求弹性越大，终端消费者需求量减少越明显。\n去年受到美国制裁的中国华为，2021年的智能手机产量计划降至2020年一半以下，华为对芯片需求的消失，原本应该释放出大量相关产能，但出乎业界预料的是，由于种种因素叠加影响，全球芯片供需矛盾反而进一步加大，从汽车领域开始，手机、电脑、游戏机等多个行业相继出现“缺芯”难题。\n但再看下智能手机市场，荣耀今年出货目标由5000万台下调到3500万台，下调幅度为30%；一加今年出货目标由2000万台下调到1200万台，下调幅度高达40%；Realme今年出货目标由8500万台修正到6000万台，下修幅度29%。\n对未来的不确定，大多数厂商因为恐慌心理而选择备货。大家都在囤货，加剧了对产能资源的争夺，压货不出导致大量库存积压。去年的疫情重创元器件供应链引发市场缺货恐慌让手机厂商囤货更加激进，1.5倍甚至是2倍的库存规划都并不少见。\n比如，Realme中国区总裁徐起就公开表示备货提前备了一年的量；小米高管卢伟冰公开表示，骁龙870备货量更是友商的两倍。另一方面，华为被美国制裁受打击，其他手机厂商害怕重蹈覆辙华为的路子，也在芯片库存上采取了大胆的库存策略。\n说了这么多，或许大家也应该看明白了，这其中最大的变量那就是比特币。比特币价格的上涨，进一步催生了对显卡、硬盘、矿机的异常庞大需求，一定程度上加剧了智能手机、智能音箱和PC笔记本等消费终端芯片的供应不足，间接加强了芯片短期供不应求的预期，芯片价格暴涨又让企业加大力度囤货。\n当美联储收紧货币政策，必然会对引发比特币价格的波动，一旦比特币价格崩盘呢？芯片产能得到释放，所有的供需不平衡现象将得到缓解，芯片赛道恐怕将进入去库存周期，整个芯片赛道恐怕要经历巨大的波动，而芯片对科技股的影响远远大于比特币概念股，届时美股必然迎来雪崩。\n比特币本身并不是太重要，即使能影响包括TSLA、SQ在内的比特币概念股，对大盘也造成不了太大的影响，我真正担心的是矿机价格崩盘，造成芯片市场需求预期的变化，进一步影响芯片赛道的库存周期，这可能才是我们迫切需要关注的。\n现在我们可能需要时刻关注比特币价格波动的变化，一旦再次跌破33000美元的重要支撑，整个市场或许将迎来一个重点拐点。如果未来美股崩盘，那比特币一定居功至伟。\n本文选编自“美股研究社”，作者：li俊，智通财经编辑：张金亮。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}