st退市风险警示的个人主页 - 老虎社区

st退市风险警示

st退市风险警示

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st退市风险警示

10-29

阿里不少员工猝死吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

st退市风险警示

08-31

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 远离阿里，垃圾公司

st退市风险警示

08-05

$交个朋友控股(01450)$ 老罗还没把交个朋友搞倒闭啊

st退市风险警示

07-31

$东方甄选(01797)$ 看好俞老板

st退市风险警示

07-29

$东方甄选(01797)$ 瘟神送走了

st退市风险警示

07-27

$新东方(EDU)$ 董这个雷，总算是排了

st退市风险警示

07-26

$东方甄选(01797)$ 一个员工而已

st退市风险警示

2023-02-28

$中天顺联(00994)$ 快跑，要崩盘了

st退市风险警示

2023-01-13

$哔哩哔哩-W(09626)$ 春晚应该由你承办

st退市风险警示

2023-01-06

$叮咚买菜(DDL)$ 叮咚买的鱼，比盒马新鲜

st退市风险警示

2022-11-12

$中天顺联(00994)$ 这只股票就是gha用来割韭菜的

st退市风险警示

2022-09-14

$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$有点大病

st退市风险警示

2022-05-16

$中天顺联(00994)$这只股票的合理估值是3毛

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快跑，要崩盘了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624512884","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":663878493,"gmtCreate":1663127261112,"gmtModify":1663127548451,"author":{"id":"3577767505446143","authorId":"3577767505446143","name":"st退市风险警示","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d3869cb3e5963763e581b264776bcf","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577767505446143","authorIdStr":"3577767505446143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a>有点大病","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a>有点大病","text":"$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$有点大病","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/663878493","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365254556279024,"gmtCreate":1730214698489,"gmtModify":1730214700280,"author":{"id":"3577767505446143","authorId":"3577767505446143","name":"st退市风险警示","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92d3869cb3e5963763e581b264776bcf","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577767505446143","authorIdStr":"3577767505446143"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"阿里不少员工猝死吧","listText":"阿里不少员工猝死吧","text":"阿里不少员工猝死吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365254556279024","repostId":"2479417667","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2479417667","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"决策者的首席情报顾问。2016胡润中国最具影响力财经自媒体50强。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智谷趋势","id":"61","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b7567521d94961ba41474833cdea17"},"pubTimestamp":1730114700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2479417667?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-28 19:25","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"员工猝死在出租屋，叮咚买菜盈利的秘密藏不住了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2479417667","media":"智谷趋势","summary":"在家属和部分网友看来，叮咚买菜并不无辜。事实上，叮咚买菜在劳动关系相关的争议并不少。天眼查显示，叮咚买菜涉及司法案件630件，历史开庭公告466件。这出猝死事件前，叮咚买菜被作为“前置仓模式又行了”的样板，迎接了无数掌声和赞美。今年8月，叮咚买菜交出了一份漂亮的二季报，打赢了一场翻身仗。事实上，叮咚买菜迎来“盈利期”前，在黑暗的“长期亏损”中摸索了很久。","content":"<html><body><div><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span>（11月初有2个重要会议，会有新动作吗？对房、股、金、汇有何影响？</span><strong><span>点击上方预约周三汉城老师直播，更早收到开播通知</span></strong><span>）</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong>作者 | 秋裤的书</strong><strong></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong><strong arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" transparent=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\">编辑 | 暴雨</strong></strong><strong><strong arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" transparent=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"></strong></strong></span></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚买菜</a>笑不出来了。</span></p><p><span>日前，刚拿下连续7个季度盈利好成绩的叮咚买菜，打破了盒马创始人侯毅对于前置仓“是不可能盈利的”的断言，但随之陷入了另一场舆论风波。</span></p><p><span>9月23日，叮咚买菜一仓管员阿涛（化名）的遗体，在北京丰台区王佐镇某城中村的出租屋内被发现。</span></p><p><span>阿涛是猝死的，但没有人知道他是什么时候死的。</span></p><p><span>这起事件，让叮咚买菜盈利的秘密彻底藏不住了。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d2da7c134643d283a240019bdfc7fd\"/></p><p><span>作为叮咚买菜北京门店的一名仓管员，42岁的阿涛死前曾经上了多天通宵夜班，夜班时间通常是晚上10点到第二天上午10点，12个小时。</span></p><p><span><span>在出事前，已经有一些征兆了。据红星新闻报道，9月18日，阿涛跟店长说，</span><span><strong>“眼睛里全是血”</strong><strong>“右眼边儿什么都看不见”。</strong></span></span></p><p><span>店长问他：“8点多你看看能不能去吧，不能就得我去”。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/904f04b06907479bb1cf4d19d2f68266\"/></p><p><span>（网传阿涛向店长请假聊天记录 图片来源：红星新闻）</span></p><p><span>9月19日晚，店长与阿涛通了最后一次话，之后再无联系。</span></p><p><span>直至9月23日他的遗体被在出租屋内被发现。</span></p><p><span>没有人知道在失联的这几天发生了什么。</span></p><p><span>家属怀疑阿涛是连续夜班导致的过劳死，但在收集材料准备进行工伤认定时却意外发现——</span></p><p><span><span><strong>阿涛和很多叮咚买菜店员一样，没有与叮咚买菜签订劳动合同</strong></span><span>，而是与第三方公司杭州云千斗科技有限公司签了一份《自由职业者服务协议》。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这份协议显示，</span><span><strong>双方不构成任何劳动法律关系</strong></span><span>，公司没有为乙方缴纳社保和购买任何保险的法律义务，乙方也不享受社保和福利待遇。乙方自行购买保险的，其相关事宜均与甲方及平台公司无关。</span></span></p><p><span>在与该员工家属进行协商时，云千斗最初的方案是“走保险”，但由于该事件是在非工作时间和非工作岗位发生的，“保险”这条路就走不通了。</span></p><p><span>云千斗称，只能提供少量的人道主义赔偿。因为根据警方出具的鉴定报告，还没有证据证明阿涛的猝死与工作有关。</span></p><p><span>叮咚买菜方面，也一直没有主动出面解决，表示他是第三方平台员工。多次商议后，叮咚买菜出于“人道主义关怀”给该员工家属10万元的补偿。</span></p><p><span>在家属和部分网友看来，叮咚买菜并不无辜。</span></p><p><span>“工作流程申请、工作报批、事务汇报等，都是跟叮咚买菜公司的负责人在对接”，把责任推给“第三方公司”，是在逃避用工风险的做法。</span></p><p><span>当社区民警询问叮咚买菜的态度时，叮咚买菜负责人称，“叮咚买菜所有一线员工的考勤、发薪等都交给第三方承揽，从站长到管理层也是由第三方管理。公司会全力配合，意见与第三方公司一致。如果大家不认同，可以正常走法律程序。”</span></p><p><span><strong>事实上，叮咚买菜在劳动关系相关的争议并不少。天眼查显示，叮咚买菜涉及司法案件630件，历史开庭公告466件。</strong></span></p><p><span>从目前的开庭公告来看，劳动争议、劳动合同纠纷、生命权、健康权、身体权纠纷等三种案由案件占比41.7%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ce1623b2ec8403e8d8ee63df25bc0a8\"/></p><p><span>图源：天眼查</span></p><p><span><span><strong>劳动关系外包</strong></span><span>——是企业这些年极其普遍的人力模式。</span></span></p><p><span>不仅发生在叮咚买菜这样的生鲜电商平台，外卖骑手、网约车司机、快递员等职业更是劳动关系外包的重灾区。</span></p><p><span>在一些法律人士看来，这个原本旨在提升劳动者和用人企业灵活用工的协议，在实践中却常常被一些企业当作规避法律责任的工具，以此来逃避劳动关系中应当给予劳动者的各项保障。</span></p><p><span><span>讽刺的是，在不知道是阿涛是“外包工”之前，家人对阿涛的工作如此评价，</span><span><em><strong>叮咚买菜是一家上市公司，他们曾以此为荣。</strong></em></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e826f10e57ee4d70bddfb1e190961110\"/></p><p><span>这出猝死事件前，叮咚买菜被作为“前置仓模式又行了”的样板，迎接了无数掌声和赞美。</span></p><p><span>今年8月，叮咚买菜交出了一份漂亮的二季报，打赢了一场翻身仗。</span></p><p><span>第二季度，叮咚买菜总营收达到55.99亿元，同比增长15.67%；</span></p><p><span>商品交易总额GMV达到62.2亿元，同比增长16.8%。</span></p><p><span>其在Non-GAAP标准下的净利润达到1.03亿元，同比增长近13倍。</span></p><p><span><strong>这意味着，叮咚已经连续七个季度实现正向盈利</strong>。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d49e3317cd7b439c95ff4f5d1b5b28a1\"/></p><p><span>（来源：叮咚买菜财报）</span></p><p><span>总收入增长主要得益于交易用户数量的增加、月度购买频率的提升。第二季度，叮咚买菜月均下单用户数约为730万，同比增长11.7%；日均下单用户数接近90万，同比增长17%。</span></p><p><span>事实上，叮咚买菜迎来“盈利期”前，在黑暗的“长期亏损”中摸索了很久。</span></p><p><span><span>过往的财报显示，</span><span><strong>叮咚买菜连续四年亏损接近百亿</strong></span><span>。2019-2022年间，叮咚买菜分别净亏损18.7亿元、31.8亿元、64.3亿元和8.07亿元。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这个时期的叮咚还在走</span><span><strong>“规模优先，兼顾效率”</strong></span><span>的路子。仅2020一年，叮咚买菜的业务就覆盖了27个城市。</span></span></p><p><span>“高投入，高耗损，低价战”仿佛是当时生鲜电商的一道魔咒，所有选手都在疯狂“烧钱”：大幅扩展业务、大额补贴用户、大量发动地推大战……</span></p><p><span>有人倒下了——习惯用钱来解决问题的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">每日优鲜</a>，关停了30分钟送货上门的极速达服务，公司内部大部分员工被停职停薪……这场资本共同塑造出的“泡沫经济”最终在2022年7月破灭。</span></p><p><span><span>面对同样的困境，叮咚买菜意识到，盲目摸着“每日优鲜”过河的策略已经失效了。对此，叮咚买菜主动调整战略重点，</span><span><strong>从“快速扩张”到“效率为先”</strong><strong>，总结下来就是三板斧。</strong></span></span></p><p><span><span>第一板斧是砍，首先是</span><span><strong>砍点位</strong></span><span>，叮咚买菜退出了GMV贡献较少的城市。如珠海、江门、滁州等，这些城市运营成本高，业务拓展受限；川渝地区，这里的消费者更倾向于去菜市场买菜，线上生鲜平台的接受度不高。</span></span></p><p><span><span></span><span>此外，还对广深等地的站点布局进行优化。</span></span></p><p><span><span>其次是</span><span><strong>砍人员</strong></span><span>，包括骑手和地推铁军。有数DataVision文章就提到，<em>单个站点的骑手数量从20名骤减为7、8名，配送员被迫艰苦奋斗。而早在2021年四季度，叮咚买菜上海地区骑手日均交付订单量就达到了89.5单，远高于74.8单的平均数。</em></span><span><em><strong>相当于每个骑手每天要多跑15栋楼。</strong></em></span></span></p><p><span>正是通过砍砍砍，叮咚买菜运营效率颇见成效。财报显示，叮咚买菜的履约费用持续下降，从2021年及以前的超35%到2022年的25.25%，2024年二季度更是下降至22.4%。</span></p><p><span><span>第二板斧是</span><span><strong>对优势市场加密</strong></span><span>，即对于核心大本营区域进行“重点培养”。</span></span></p><p><span>例如在消费能力较强、冷链物流相对完善的江浙沪地区，继续拓展前置仓数量。叮咚买菜预计在今年内新开约80个前置仓，目前上半年已经开出近40个，单仓日均单量已经突破800单。</span></p><p><span>靠着“优势地区”的打法，二季度叮咚买菜在上海、浙江、江苏的GMV、渗透率和人均点单量均有所提升，GMV同比分别实现了16.5%、30.4%、28.5%的增长。</span></p><p><span><span><strong>“江浙沪”的成功，使叮咚买菜坚定了复制这种模式的信心。</strong></span><span>目前叮咚买菜在全国25个城市开通服务，其中18个城市位于华东，5个城市位于华南，2个城市在华北。</span></span></p><p><span>财报叮咚买菜在华南、华北地区的布局初见成效。作为非优势地区，北京的GMV实现同比增长8.5%，大盘同店增速为21.6%；广深地区的亏损也在大幅收敛。</span></p><p><span><span>第三板斧则是</span><span><strong>从“生鲜买菜”变成“全品类超市”</strong></span><span>，预制菜被叮咚买菜寄予了第二增长曲线的厚望。</span></span></p><p><span><span>有数DataVision文章就指出，</span><span><em><strong>叮咚买菜的两万个SKU中只有37.5%为生鲜，与之相对，以预制菜为主的自有品牌GMV比例提升至两成。</strong></em></span><span>要知道，超市类企业生鲜毛利率区间在13%~19%之间，预制菜企业毛利率区间却能达到22%~27%左右。</span></span></p><p><span>为了提升供应链效率，叮咚买菜新增了温州苍南、山东东营、广东湛江三大直采基地，实现了“产地直采——前置仓配货——配送到家”全链路的数字化驱动，端到端损耗能控制在1%—2%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a1ec1a2389492eba60d089fd86e122\"/></p><p><span><span>叮咚买菜所取得“阶段性胜利”，是否意味着</span><span><strong>前置仓的路子终于走通了？</strong></span></span></p><p><span>目前只能说，前置仓第一阶段大洗牌结束了，第二阶段大战已经拉响，现在言胜利还为之过早。</span></p><p><span>前置仓模式是指企业在城市的中心区域设置多个小型仓库，以便于快速配送生鲜食品。这种模式的核心优势就在于其高效的配送能力和对消费者需求的快速响应。</span></p><p><span>要走通这条路并不简单，有两大痛点，</span></p><p><span><span><strong>第一，</strong><strong>成本高昂是前置仓模式的一大挑战。</strong></span><span>作为供应链建设的重要一环，前置仓建设的前期投入非常高，配送网络的铺设甚至几十个前置仓才能完成。</span></span></p><p><span>而生鲜产品普遍毛利较低，要实现前端盈利，需要充足的订单支撑（规模效应），且客单价需达到一定水平才能覆盖成本，否则就会产生亏损。</span></p><p><span><span><strong>第二</strong><strong>，</strong><strong>生鲜</strong><strong>损耗问题也是前置仓面临的难题。</strong></span><span>尽管一些企业会将一部分损耗推给第三方物流公司承担，但由于物流公司的控制能力有限，也难以从根本上降低损耗率。</span></span></p><p><span>正因为如此，叮咚买菜的战略布局瞄了准难逃“996”的年轻人和高收入群体。数据显示，叮咚买菜的客单价在60元左右，高出一般家庭消费的一半以上。</span></p><p><span>叮咚买菜、小象超市等平台纷纷压缩生鲜SKU，把生鲜损耗这个变量无限压缩。</span></p><p><span>经历了第一轮大战，吉及鲜、呆萝卜、每日优鲜等选手为抢占市场均已资不抵债，亏损严重。</span></p><p><span>目前存活下来的平台，要面对的是更棘手的问题。</span></p><p><span><strong>前置仓模式有地域魔咒，它只能在优质区域内“小而美”，不容易在全国范围求大求全。</strong></span></p><p><span>毕竟，虽然前置仓模式在特定的区域内有明显的优势，但一旦跨出离消费者近的区域，就可能面临供应链、物流配送和需求等方面的挑战。</span></p><p><span>但优质区域向来是兵家必争之地，目前，山姆、盒马、小象超市等玩家仍在前置仓加速布局，以小象超市为例，据《晚点LatePost》报道，到今年二季度，小象超市开设了超680个前置仓，其中550个位于北上广深。</span></p><p><span>这块蛋糕总会被分完的。实际上，不少城市的前置仓已经供大于求，比如上海，灵兽文章就指出，目前上海有400-500个前置仓，只需要其中10%就能覆盖整个上海。</span></p><p><span><span>这时候，</span><span><strong>争取用户复购率成了新一轮比拼的焦点。新一轮的竞争已经拉起来了</strong></span><span>，目前，叮咚、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等平台纷纷重启地推，行业加速布局，竞争愈发激烈。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d32f3b22e9545258a36da209acdd5f9\"/></p><p><span>（图源：灵兽）</span></p><p><span>到底谁能真正把前置仓模式跑通，目前格局还不明朗。</span></p><p><span>我们希望，跑通的代价不是生命的代价，只有当前置仓模式能很好兼顾消费者、员工和平台三方效益了，那才叫真正跑通了。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba391467b7a14037a872c2213e686445\"/></p><p arial=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong>中产必须要调整预期了。楼市救市、地缘关系、整个社会的变化，都影响我们每一个人的决策。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><strong>加入</strong></span><span><strong>智谷趋势内部研判</strong></span><span><strong>，每周收获一次对世界资讯的认知与独到判断，胡润TOP10的智谷趋势 三十多位研究员 辅助大家，去理解资讯背后的趋势和本质变化。</strong></span></span></p><p arial=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong>中文互联网正在消失，千万别让自己成为那个代价。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" var=\"\" yahei=\"\">现已涨价至299，前50人减免100元</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" var=\"\" yahei=\"\">付款后停顿3秒，添加您的专属通信官</strong></span></p><p><span>参考：</span></p><p><span>界面新闻：巨头围剿下的叮咚买菜净利暴涨。</span></p><p><span>三联生活周刊：生鲜平台疯狂内卷，年轻人为啥不爱逛菜市场了？</span></p><p><span>虎嗅APP：叮咚买菜盈利了，挑战还在后面。</span></p><p><span>灵兽：前置仓又站起来了？</span></p><p><span>零售商业财经：叮咚买菜2024Q2财报：净利润同比大涨1268.6%，增长“方法论”成熟。</span></p><p><span>每日经济新闻：2022年Q4全面盈利 梁昌霖交关键答卷：叮咚买菜找到前置仓盈利的标准答案了吗？</span></p><p><span>‍‍</span></p></div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>员工猝死在出租屋，叮咚买菜盈利的秘密藏不住了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n员工猝死在出租屋，叮咚买菜盈利的秘密藏不住了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/61\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/33b7567521d94961ba41474833cdea17);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智谷趋势 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-10-28 19:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span>（11月初有2个重要会议，会有新动作吗？对房、股、金、汇有何影响？</span><strong><span>点击上方预约周三汉城老师直播，更早收到开播通知</span></strong><span>）</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong>作者 | 秋裤的书</strong><strong></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong><strong arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" transparent=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\">编辑 | 暴雨</strong></strong><strong><strong arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" transparent=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"></strong></strong></span></p><p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚买菜</a>笑不出来了。</span></p><p><span>日前，刚拿下连续7个季度盈利好成绩的叮咚买菜，打破了盒马创始人侯毅对于前置仓“是不可能盈利的”的断言，但随之陷入了另一场舆论风波。</span></p><p><span>9月23日，叮咚买菜一仓管员阿涛（化名）的遗体，在北京丰台区王佐镇某城中村的出租屋内被发现。</span></p><p><span>阿涛是猝死的，但没有人知道他是什么时候死的。</span></p><p><span>这起事件，让叮咚买菜盈利的秘密彻底藏不住了。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74d2da7c134643d283a240019bdfc7fd\"/></p><p><span>作为叮咚买菜北京门店的一名仓管员，42岁的阿涛死前曾经上了多天通宵夜班，夜班时间通常是晚上10点到第二天上午10点，12个小时。</span></p><p><span><span>在出事前，已经有一些征兆了。据红星新闻报道，9月18日，阿涛跟店长说，</span><span><strong>“眼睛里全是血”</strong><strong>“右眼边儿什么都看不见”。</strong></span></span></p><p><span>店长问他：“8点多你看看能不能去吧，不能就得我去”。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/904f04b06907479bb1cf4d19d2f68266\"/></p><p><span>（网传阿涛向店长请假聊天记录 图片来源：红星新闻）</span></p><p><span>9月19日晚，店长与阿涛通了最后一次话，之后再无联系。</span></p><p><span>直至9月23日他的遗体被在出租屋内被发现。</span></p><p><span>没有人知道在失联的这几天发生了什么。</span></p><p><span>家属怀疑阿涛是连续夜班导致的过劳死，但在收集材料准备进行工伤认定时却意外发现——</span></p><p><span><span><strong>阿涛和很多叮咚买菜店员一样，没有与叮咚买菜签订劳动合同</strong></span><span>，而是与第三方公司杭州云千斗科技有限公司签了一份《自由职业者服务协议》。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这份协议显示，</span><span><strong>双方不构成任何劳动法律关系</strong></span><span>，公司没有为乙方缴纳社保和购买任何保险的法律义务，乙方也不享受社保和福利待遇。乙方自行购买保险的，其相关事宜均与甲方及平台公司无关。</span></span></p><p><span>在与该员工家属进行协商时，云千斗最初的方案是“走保险”，但由于该事件是在非工作时间和非工作岗位发生的，“保险”这条路就走不通了。</span></p><p><span>云千斗称，只能提供少量的人道主义赔偿。因为根据警方出具的鉴定报告，还没有证据证明阿涛的猝死与工作有关。</span></p><p><span>叮咚买菜方面，也一直没有主动出面解决，表示他是第三方平台员工。多次商议后，叮咚买菜出于“人道主义关怀”给该员工家属10万元的补偿。</span></p><p><span>在家属和部分网友看来，叮咚买菜并不无辜。</span></p><p><span>“工作流程申请、工作报批、事务汇报等，都是跟叮咚买菜公司的负责人在对接”，把责任推给“第三方公司”，是在逃避用工风险的做法。</span></p><p><span>当社区民警询问叮咚买菜的态度时，叮咚买菜负责人称，“叮咚买菜所有一线员工的考勤、发薪等都交给第三方承揽，从站长到管理层也是由第三方管理。公司会全力配合，意见与第三方公司一致。如果大家不认同，可以正常走法律程序。”</span></p><p><span><strong>事实上，叮咚买菜在劳动关系相关的争议并不少。天眼查显示，叮咚买菜涉及司法案件630件，历史开庭公告466件。</strong></span></p><p><span>从目前的开庭公告来看，劳动争议、劳动合同纠纷、生命权、健康权、身体权纠纷等三种案由案件占比41.7%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ce1623b2ec8403e8d8ee63df25bc0a8\"/></p><p><span>图源：天眼查</span></p><p><span><span><strong>劳动关系外包</strong></span><span>——是企业这些年极其普遍的人力模式。</span></span></p><p><span>不仅发生在叮咚买菜这样的生鲜电商平台，外卖骑手、网约车司机、快递员等职业更是劳动关系外包的重灾区。</span></p><p><span>在一些法律人士看来，这个原本旨在提升劳动者和用人企业灵活用工的协议，在实践中却常常被一些企业当作规避法律责任的工具，以此来逃避劳动关系中应当给予劳动者的各项保障。</span></p><p><span><span>讽刺的是，在不知道是阿涛是“外包工”之前，家人对阿涛的工作如此评价，</span><span><em><strong>叮咚买菜是一家上市公司，他们曾以此为荣。</strong></em></span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e826f10e57ee4d70bddfb1e190961110\"/></p><p><span>这出猝死事件前，叮咚买菜被作为“前置仓模式又行了”的样板，迎接了无数掌声和赞美。</span></p><p><span>今年8月，叮咚买菜交出了一份漂亮的二季报，打赢了一场翻身仗。</span></p><p><span>第二季度，叮咚买菜总营收达到55.99亿元，同比增长15.67%；</span></p><p><span>商品交易总额GMV达到62.2亿元，同比增长16.8%。</span></p><p><span>其在Non-GAAP标准下的净利润达到1.03亿元，同比增长近13倍。</span></p><p><span><strong>这意味着，叮咚已经连续七个季度实现正向盈利</strong>。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d49e3317cd7b439c95ff4f5d1b5b28a1\"/></p><p><span>（来源：叮咚买菜财报）</span></p><p><span>总收入增长主要得益于交易用户数量的增加、月度购买频率的提升。第二季度，叮咚买菜月均下单用户数约为730万，同比增长11.7%；日均下单用户数接近90万，同比增长17%。</span></p><p><span>事实上，叮咚买菜迎来“盈利期”前，在黑暗的“长期亏损”中摸索了很久。</span></p><p><span><span>过往的财报显示，</span><span><strong>叮咚买菜连续四年亏损接近百亿</strong></span><span>。2019-2022年间，叮咚买菜分别净亏损18.7亿元、31.8亿元、64.3亿元和8.07亿元。</span></span></p><p><span><span>这个时期的叮咚还在走</span><span><strong>“规模优先，兼顾效率”</strong></span><span>的路子。仅2020一年，叮咚买菜的业务就覆盖了27个城市。</span></span></p><p><span>“高投入，高耗损，低价战”仿佛是当时生鲜电商的一道魔咒，所有选手都在疯狂“烧钱”：大幅扩展业务、大额补贴用户、大量发动地推大战……</span></p><p><span>有人倒下了——习惯用钱来解决问题的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">每日优鲜</a>，关停了30分钟送货上门的极速达服务，公司内部大部分员工被停职停薪……这场资本共同塑造出的“泡沫经济”最终在2022年7月破灭。</span></p><p><span><span>面对同样的困境，叮咚买菜意识到，盲目摸着“每日优鲜”过河的策略已经失效了。对此，叮咚买菜主动调整战略重点，</span><span><strong>从“快速扩张”到“效率为先”</strong><strong>，总结下来就是三板斧。</strong></span></span></p><p><span><span>第一板斧是砍，首先是</span><span><strong>砍点位</strong></span><span>，叮咚买菜退出了GMV贡献较少的城市。如珠海、江门、滁州等，这些城市运营成本高，业务拓展受限；川渝地区，这里的消费者更倾向于去菜市场买菜，线上生鲜平台的接受度不高。</span></span></p><p><span><span></span><span>此外，还对广深等地的站点布局进行优化。</span></span></p><p><span><span>其次是</span><span><strong>砍人员</strong></span><span>，包括骑手和地推铁军。有数DataVision文章就提到，<em>单个站点的骑手数量从20名骤减为7、8名，配送员被迫艰苦奋斗。而早在2021年四季度，叮咚买菜上海地区骑手日均交付订单量就达到了89.5单，远高于74.8单的平均数。</em></span><span><em><strong>相当于每个骑手每天要多跑15栋楼。</strong></em></span></span></p><p><span>正是通过砍砍砍，叮咚买菜运营效率颇见成效。财报显示，叮咚买菜的履约费用持续下降，从2021年及以前的超35%到2022年的25.25%，2024年二季度更是下降至22.4%。</span></p><p><span><span>第二板斧是</span><span><strong>对优势市场加密</strong></span><span>，即对于核心大本营区域进行“重点培养”。</span></span></p><p><span>例如在消费能力较强、冷链物流相对完善的江浙沪地区，继续拓展前置仓数量。叮咚买菜预计在今年内新开约80个前置仓，目前上半年已经开出近40个，单仓日均单量已经突破800单。</span></p><p><span>靠着“优势地区”的打法，二季度叮咚买菜在上海、浙江、江苏的GMV、渗透率和人均点单量均有所提升，GMV同比分别实现了16.5%、30.4%、28.5%的增长。</span></p><p><span><span><strong>“江浙沪”的成功，使叮咚买菜坚定了复制这种模式的信心。</strong></span><span>目前叮咚买菜在全国25个城市开通服务，其中18个城市位于华东，5个城市位于华南，2个城市在华北。</span></span></p><p><span>财报叮咚买菜在华南、华北地区的布局初见成效。作为非优势地区，北京的GMV实现同比增长8.5%，大盘同店增速为21.6%；广深地区的亏损也在大幅收敛。</span></p><p><span><span>第三板斧则是</span><span><strong>从“生鲜买菜”变成“全品类超市”</strong></span><span>，预制菜被叮咚买菜寄予了第二增长曲线的厚望。</span></span></p><p><span><span>有数DataVision文章就指出，</span><span><em><strong>叮咚买菜的两万个SKU中只有37.5%为生鲜，与之相对，以预制菜为主的自有品牌GMV比例提升至两成。</strong></em></span><span>要知道，超市类企业生鲜毛利率区间在13%~19%之间，预制菜企业毛利率区间却能达到22%~27%左右。</span></span></p><p><span>为了提升供应链效率，叮咚买菜新增了温州苍南、山东东营、广东湛江三大直采基地，实现了“产地直采——前置仓配货——配送到家”全链路的数字化驱动，端到端损耗能控制在1%—2%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a1ec1a2389492eba60d089fd86e122\"/></p><p><span><span>叮咚买菜所取得“阶段性胜利”，是否意味着</span><span><strong>前置仓的路子终于走通了？</strong></span></span></p><p><span>目前只能说，前置仓第一阶段大洗牌结束了，第二阶段大战已经拉响，现在言胜利还为之过早。</span></p><p><span>前置仓模式是指企业在城市的中心区域设置多个小型仓库，以便于快速配送生鲜食品。这种模式的核心优势就在于其高效的配送能力和对消费者需求的快速响应。</span></p><p><span>要走通这条路并不简单，有两大痛点，</span></p><p><span><span><strong>第一，</strong><strong>成本高昂是前置仓模式的一大挑战。</strong></span><span>作为供应链建设的重要一环，前置仓建设的前期投入非常高，配送网络的铺设甚至几十个前置仓才能完成。</span></span></p><p><span>而生鲜产品普遍毛利较低，要实现前端盈利，需要充足的订单支撑（规模效应），且客单价需达到一定水平才能覆盖成本，否则就会产生亏损。</span></p><p><span><span><strong>第二</strong><strong>，</strong><strong>生鲜</strong><strong>损耗问题也是前置仓面临的难题。</strong></span><span>尽管一些企业会将一部分损耗推给第三方物流公司承担，但由于物流公司的控制能力有限，也难以从根本上降低损耗率。</span></span></p><p><span>正因为如此，叮咚买菜的战略布局瞄了准难逃“996”的年轻人和高收入群体。数据显示，叮咚买菜的客单价在60元左右，高出一般家庭消费的一半以上。</span></p><p><span>叮咚买菜、小象超市等平台纷纷压缩生鲜SKU，把生鲜损耗这个变量无限压缩。</span></p><p><span>经历了第一轮大战，吉及鲜、呆萝卜、每日优鲜等选手为抢占市场均已资不抵债，亏损严重。</span></p><p><span>目前存活下来的平台，要面对的是更棘手的问题。</span></p><p><span><strong>前置仓模式有地域魔咒，它只能在优质区域内“小而美”，不容易在全国范围求大求全。</strong></span></p><p><span>毕竟，虽然前置仓模式在特定的区域内有明显的优势，但一旦跨出离消费者近的区域，就可能面临供应链、物流配送和需求等方面的挑战。</span></p><p><span>但优质区域向来是兵家必争之地，目前，山姆、盒马、小象超市等玩家仍在前置仓加速布局，以小象超市为例，据《晚点LatePost》报道，到今年二季度，小象超市开设了超680个前置仓，其中550个位于北上广深。</span></p><p><span>这块蛋糕总会被分完的。实际上，不少城市的前置仓已经供大于求，比如上海，灵兽文章就指出，目前上海有400-500个前置仓，只需要其中10%就能覆盖整个上海。</span></p><p><span><span>这时候，</span><span><strong>争取用户复购率成了新一轮比拼的焦点。新一轮的竞争已经拉起来了</strong></span><span>，目前，叮咚、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等平台纷纷重启地推，行业加速布局，竞争愈发激烈。</span></span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d32f3b22e9545258a36da209acdd5f9\"/></p><p><span>（图源：灵兽）</span></p><p><span>到底谁能真正把前置仓模式跑通，目前格局还不明朗。</span></p><p><span>我们希望，跑通的代价不是生命的代价，只有当前置仓模式能很好兼顾消费者、员工和平台三方效益了，那才叫真正跑通了。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba391467b7a14037a872c2213e686445\"/></p><p arial=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong>中产必须要调整预期了。楼市救市、地缘关系、整个社会的变化，都影响我们每一个人的决策。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><strong>加入</strong></span><span><strong>智谷趋势内部研判</strong></span><span><strong>，每周收获一次对世界资讯的认知与独到判断，胡润TOP10的智谷趋势 三十多位研究员 辅助大家，去理解资讯背后的趋势和本质变化。</strong></span></span></p><p arial=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong>中文互联网正在消失，千万别让自己成为那个代价。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" var=\"\" yahei=\"\">现已涨价至299，前50人减免100元</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" var=\"\" yahei=\"\">付款后停顿3秒，添加您的专属通信官</strong></span></p><p><span>参考：</span></p><p><span>界面新闻：巨头围剿下的叮咚买菜净利暴涨。</span></p><p><span>三联生活周刊：生鲜平台疯狂内卷，年轻人为啥不爱逛菜市场了？</span></p><p><span>虎嗅APP：叮咚买菜盈利了，挑战还在后面。</span></p><p><span>灵兽：前置仓又站起来了？</span></p><p><span>零售商业财经：叮咚买菜2024Q2财报：净利润同比大涨1268.6%，增长“方法论”成熟。</span></p><p><span>每日经济新闻：2022年Q4全面盈利 梁昌霖交关键答卷：叮咚买菜找到前置仓盈利的标准答案了吗？</span></p><p><span>‍‍</span></p></div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","DDL":"叮咚买菜","BK4539":"次新股","BK4113":"食品零售"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5ODA5MzgwNw==&mid=2650136936&idx=2&sn=2c7456cb83bd73b13bc2445893d9950c&chksm=897b0400bd2df59a733b6bc04cd071afb8e655b63baad9868692ba8bc0e7d8194305fceacf6c&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2479417667","content_text":"（11月初有2个重要会议，会有新动作吗？对房、股、金、汇有何影响？点击上方预约周三汉城老师直播，更早收到开播通知）作者 | 秋裤的书编辑 | 暴雨叮咚买菜笑不出来了。日前，刚拿下连续7个季度盈利好成绩的叮咚买菜，打破了盒马创始人侯毅对于前置仓“是不可能盈利的”的断言，但随之陷入了另一场舆论风波。9月23日，叮咚买菜一仓管员阿涛（化名）的遗体，在北京丰台区王佐镇某城中村的出租屋内被发现。阿涛是猝死的，但没有人知道他是什么时候死的。这起事件，让叮咚买菜盈利的秘密彻底藏不住了。作为叮咚买菜北京门店的一名仓管员，42岁的阿涛死前曾经上了多天通宵夜班，夜班时间通常是晚上10点到第二天上午10点，12个小时。在出事前，已经有一些征兆了。据红星新闻报道，9月18日，阿涛跟店长说，“眼睛里全是血”“右眼边儿什么都看不见”。店长问他：“8点多你看看能不能去吧，不能就得我去”。（网传阿涛向店长请假聊天记录 图片来源：红星新闻）9月19日晚，店长与阿涛通了最后一次话，之后再无联系。直至9月23日他的遗体被在出租屋内被发现。没有人知道在失联的这几天发生了什么。家属怀疑阿涛是连续夜班导致的过劳死，但在收集材料准备进行工伤认定时却意外发现——阿涛和很多叮咚买菜店员一样，没有与叮咚买菜签订劳动合同，而是与第三方公司杭州云千斗科技有限公司签了一份《自由职业者服务协议》。这份协议显示，双方不构成任何劳动法律关系，公司没有为乙方缴纳社保和购买任何保险的法律义务，乙方也不享受社保和福利待遇。乙方自行购买保险的，其相关事宜均与甲方及平台公司无关。在与该员工家属进行协商时，云千斗最初的方案是“走保险”，但由于该事件是在非工作时间和非工作岗位发生的，“保险”这条路就走不通了。云千斗称，只能提供少量的人道主义赔偿。因为根据警方出具的鉴定报告，还没有证据证明阿涛的猝死与工作有关。叮咚买菜方面，也一直没有主动出面解决，表示他是第三方平台员工。多次商议后，叮咚买菜出于“人道主义关怀”给该员工家属10万元的补偿。在家属和部分网友看来，叮咚买菜并不无辜。“工作流程申请、工作报批、事务汇报等，都是跟叮咚买菜公司的负责人在对接”，把责任推给“第三方公司”，是在逃避用工风险的做法。当社区民警询问叮咚买菜的态度时，叮咚买菜负责人称，“叮咚买菜所有一线员工的考勤、发薪等都交给第三方承揽，从站长到管理层也是由第三方管理。公司会全力配合，意见与第三方公司一致。如果大家不认同，可以正常走法律程序。”事实上，叮咚买菜在劳动关系相关的争议并不少。天眼查显示，叮咚买菜涉及司法案件630件，历史开庭公告466件。从目前的开庭公告来看，劳动争议、劳动合同纠纷、生命权、健康权、身体权纠纷等三种案由案件占比41.7%。图源：天眼查劳动关系外包——是企业这些年极其普遍的人力模式。不仅发生在叮咚买菜这样的生鲜电商平台，外卖骑手、网约车司机、快递员等职业更是劳动关系外包的重灾区。在一些法律人士看来，这个原本旨在提升劳动者和用人企业灵活用工的协议，在实践中却常常被一些企业当作规避法律责任的工具，以此来逃避劳动关系中应当给予劳动者的各项保障。讽刺的是，在不知道是阿涛是“外包工”之前，家人对阿涛的工作如此评价，叮咚买菜是一家上市公司，他们曾以此为荣。这出猝死事件前，叮咚买菜被作为“前置仓模式又行了”的样板，迎接了无数掌声和赞美。今年8月，叮咚买菜交出了一份漂亮的二季报，打赢了一场翻身仗。第二季度，叮咚买菜总营收达到55.99亿元，同比增长15.67%；商品交易总额GMV达到62.2亿元，同比增长16.8%。其在Non-GAAP标准下的净利润达到1.03亿元，同比增长近13倍。这意味着，叮咚已经连续七个季度实现正向盈利。（来源：叮咚买菜财报）总收入增长主要得益于交易用户数量的增加、月度购买频率的提升。第二季度，叮咚买菜月均下单用户数约为730万，同比增长11.7%；日均下单用户数接近90万，同比增长17%。事实上，叮咚买菜迎来“盈利期”前，在黑暗的“长期亏损”中摸索了很久。过往的财报显示，叮咚买菜连续四年亏损接近百亿。2019-2022年间，叮咚买菜分别净亏损18.7亿元、31.8亿元、64.3亿元和8.07亿元。这个时期的叮咚还在走“规模优先，兼顾效率”的路子。仅2020一年，叮咚买菜的业务就覆盖了27个城市。“高投入，高耗损，低价战”仿佛是当时生鲜电商的一道魔咒，所有选手都在疯狂“烧钱”：大幅扩展业务、大额补贴用户、大量发动地推大战……有人倒下了——习惯用钱来解决问题的每日优鲜，关停了30分钟送货上门的极速达服务，公司内部大部分员工被停职停薪……这场资本共同塑造出的“泡沫经济”最终在2022年7月破灭。面对同样的困境，叮咚买菜意识到，盲目摸着“每日优鲜”过河的策略已经失效了。对此，叮咚买菜主动调整战略重点，从“快速扩张”到“效率为先”，总结下来就是三板斧。第一板斧是砍，首先是砍点位，叮咚买菜退出了GMV贡献较少的城市。如珠海、江门、滁州等，这些城市运营成本高，业务拓展受限；川渝地区，这里的消费者更倾向于去菜市场买菜，线上生鲜平台的接受度不高。此外，还对广深等地的站点布局进行优化。其次是砍人员，包括骑手和地推铁军。有数DataVision文章就提到，单个站点的骑手数量从20名骤减为7、8名，配送员被迫艰苦奋斗。而早在2021年四季度，叮咚买菜上海地区骑手日均交付订单量就达到了89.5单，远高于74.8单的平均数。相当于每个骑手每天要多跑15栋楼。正是通过砍砍砍，叮咚买菜运营效率颇见成效。财报显示，叮咚买菜的履约费用持续下降，从2021年及以前的超35%到2022年的25.25%，2024年二季度更是下降至22.4%。第二板斧是对优势市场加密，即对于核心大本营区域进行“重点培养”。例如在消费能力较强、冷链物流相对完善的江浙沪地区，继续拓展前置仓数量。叮咚买菜预计在今年内新开约80个前置仓，目前上半年已经开出近40个，单仓日均单量已经突破800单。靠着“优势地区”的打法，二季度叮咚买菜在上海、浙江、江苏的GMV、渗透率和人均点单量均有所提升，GMV同比分别实现了16.5%、30.4%、28.5%的增长。“江浙沪”的成功，使叮咚买菜坚定了复制这种模式的信心。目前叮咚买菜在全国25个城市开通服务，其中18个城市位于华东，5个城市位于华南，2个城市在华北。财报叮咚买菜在华南、华北地区的布局初见成效。作为非优势地区，北京的GMV实现同比增长8.5%，大盘同店增速为21.6%；广深地区的亏损也在大幅收敛。第三板斧则是从“生鲜买菜”变成“全品类超市”，预制菜被叮咚买菜寄予了第二增长曲线的厚望。有数DataVision文章就指出，叮咚买菜的两万个SKU中只有37.5%为生鲜，与之相对，以预制菜为主的自有品牌GMV比例提升至两成。要知道，超市类企业生鲜毛利率区间在13%~19%之间，预制菜企业毛利率区间却能达到22%~27%左右。为了提升供应链效率，叮咚买菜新增了温州苍南、山东东营、广东湛江三大直采基地，实现了“产地直采——前置仓配货——配送到家”全链路的数字化驱动，端到端损耗能控制在1%—2%。叮咚买菜所取得“阶段性胜利”，是否意味着前置仓的路子终于走通了？目前只能说，前置仓第一阶段大洗牌结束了，第二阶段大战已经拉响，现在言胜利还为之过早。前置仓模式是指企业在城市的中心区域设置多个小型仓库，以便于快速配送生鲜食品。这种模式的核心优势就在于其高效的配送能力和对消费者需求的快速响应。要走通这条路并不简单，有两大痛点，第一，成本高昂是前置仓模式的一大挑战。作为供应链建设的重要一环，前置仓建设的前期投入非常高，配送网络的铺设甚至几十个前置仓才能完成。而生鲜产品普遍毛利较低，要实现前端盈利，需要充足的订单支撑（规模效应），且客单价需达到一定水平才能覆盖成本，否则就会产生亏损。第二，生鲜损耗问题也是前置仓面临的难题。尽管一些企业会将一部分损耗推给第三方物流公司承担，但由于物流公司的控制能力有限，也难以从根本上降低损耗率。正因为如此，叮咚买菜的战略布局瞄了准难逃“996”的年轻人和高收入群体。数据显示，叮咚买菜的客单价在60元左右，高出一般家庭消费的一半以上。叮咚买菜、小象超市等平台纷纷压缩生鲜SKU，把生鲜损耗这个变量无限压缩。经历了第一轮大战，吉及鲜、呆萝卜、每日优鲜等选手为抢占市场均已资不抵债，亏损严重。目前存活下来的平台，要面对的是更棘手的问题。前置仓模式有地域魔咒，它只能在优质区域内“小而美”，不容易在全国范围求大求全。毕竟，虽然前置仓模式在特定的区域内有明显的优势，但一旦跨出离消费者近的区域，就可能面临供应链、物流配送和需求等方面的挑战。但优质区域向来是兵家必争之地，目前，山姆、盒马、小象超市等玩家仍在前置仓加速布局，以小象超市为例，据《晚点LatePost》报道，到今年二季度，小象超市开设了超680个前置仓，其中550个位于北上广深。这块蛋糕总会被分完的。实际上，不少城市的前置仓已经供大于求，比如上海，灵兽文章就指出，目前上海有400-500个前置仓，只需要其中10%就能覆盖整个上海。这时候，争取用户复购率成了新一轮比拼的焦点。新一轮的竞争已经拉起来了，目前，叮咚、京东等平台纷纷重启地推，行业加速布局，竞争愈发激烈。（图源：灵兽）到底谁能真正把前置仓模式跑通，目前格局还不明朗。我们希望，跑通的代价不是生命的代价，只有当前置仓模式能很好兼顾消费者、员工和平台三方效益了，那才叫真正跑通了。中产必须要调整预期了。楼市救市、地缘关系、整个社会的变化，都影响我们每一个人的决策。加入智谷趋势内部研判，每周收获一次对世界资讯的认知与独到判断，胡润TOP10的智谷趋势 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