voga的个人主页 - 老虎社区

voga

voga

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IP属地：湖南

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4主题

0勋章

2021-05-12

四点醒来，看到美股股指反弹。其中纳斯达克反弹较猛。收盘前做多走起。看好今天这个交易日，纳指继续上攻。

2021-03-27

$知乎(ZH)$2000美金打新，中了不到50美金，亏损4美金。打新好像没啥干劲。

2021-04-22

实盘赛，九月底结束。看看能拿什么成绩出来。

2021-05-04

$恒生指数2105(HSI2105)$ 看涨，耐心持有目标340 400止损170

2021-05-07

$日经指数2106(NK2106)$ 看多，看涨，目标29500 and 29500+

2021-05-06

$黄铜2107(HG2107)$ 做多，涨起

2021-05-07

$恒生指数2105(HSI2105)$ 恒指看多，看涨

2021-04-30

美股总有无数猛票

2021-05-07

任天堂，那个年代的童年

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-29

这么涨，真的猛

2021-04-25

时常回顾凯利公式，我们有没在用。开赛一个月，重仓居多，回撤很大。周末时间好好重读凯利公式。

@复兴计划:巴菲特久赌必赢的公式：凯利公式

2021-04-23

日内多空拉锯关键点位，17280不破此点位，可以继续看多仅个人看法

2021-04-05

$黄铜2105(HG2105)$ 大涨的铜

2021-04-23

日内多空拉锯点位，28962不破此位置可以继续看多。仅个人观点

2021-03-25

打新啦，知乎

2021-03-16

打新走起，走起，走起

2021-03-10

$小原油2104(QM2104)$ 看多

2021-03-01

$WTI原油2104(CL2104)$ 看多看多

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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29500+","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27fdaa08c720a730ae1793604972ca3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104047514","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577587973708044","authorIdStr":"3577587973708044"},"content":"向下假突破而后向上进攻，看好大涨的形态","text":"向下假突破而后向上进攻，看好大涨的形态","html":"向下假突破而后向上进攻，看好大涨的形态"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104039037,"gmtCreate":1620344465729,"gmtModify":1620344465729,"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577587973708044","authorIdStr":"3577587973708044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"任天堂，那个年代的童年","listText":"任天堂，那个年代的童年","text":"任天堂，那个年代的童年","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104039037","repostId":"2133576992","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":105809550,"gmtCreate":1620284652470,"gmtModify":1620284652470,"author":{"id":"3577587973708044","authorId":"3577587973708044","name":"voga","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d85f098b8ae50ae7e2e2dff8fcf9e67a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577587973708044","authorIdStr":"3577587973708044"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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文章转载自公众号“三位一体股市赢家” 基本都懂，凯利公式是研究胜率赔率以及仓位（也就是下注金额）的关系。凯利公式：f=(bp-q)b (p是胜率 q是败率 b是赔率)， 如果单说高胜率，高赔率。那肯定两者双高是最好的结果。可是，往往这高并不太可能同时存在。熊掌和鱼不可兼得。 一般来说，喜欢孤注一掷的，无形中高赔率；喜欢积小成多的，选择无形中选择高胜率。 举个例子。 胜率90% 赔率1胜率50% 赔率4胜率10% 赔率50 胜率90% 赔率1 f=(1*0.9-0.1)/1=0.8 胜率50% 赔率4 f=(4*0.5-0.5)/4=0.375 胜率10% 赔率50 f=(50*0.1-0.9)/50=0.082 这是假设胜率赔率情况下的最佳下注比例。 很明显，如果都严格采用凯利公式仓位下注的话，假设胜负结果都一样的话，次数越多，胜率高的结果就越比胜率低的结果优秀。 放在股市里，换句话说，理论上，做短线的人，往往摆脱不了均值回归。 不过，在股市里，值得注意的地方，概率并不是孤立存在。也就是说，一副牌抽出去又放回来，再抽的概率是一样的。而股市里，并不是独立存在的。比如今天的上涨下跌就很可能和昨天的上涨或者下跌有关，也有可能跟消息面有关。就造成了一系列的变动。也就是所谓的“肥尾效应”。 什么是肥尾效应。是指极端行情发生的机率增加，可能因为发生一些不寻常的事件造成市场上大震荡。翻译过来也就是，从长期看，小概率的事件肯定会是必然发生的。 所以往往我们在实际操作行为当中，总以为小概率事件跟我们没有关系。但老股民都知道，时间越长，小概率碰到的就越多。诸如突然停牌，诸如个股类的黑天鹅等等。一旦遇到这种，如果仓位不对，将会产生很大的回撤。 因此，凯利公式还给我们一个启发就","listText":"如果说要从投资界找出一条最速曲线的话，那也就“凯利公式”莫属了。很多人都喜欢研究凯利公式，一是它的实用性，二是它的名气。 文章转载自公众号“三位一体股市赢家” 基本都懂，凯利公式是研究胜率赔率以及仓位（也就是下注金额）的关系。凯利公式：f=(bp-q)b (p是胜率 q是败率 b是赔率)， 如果单说高胜率，高赔率。那肯定两者双高是最好的结果。可是，往往这高并不太可能同时存在。熊掌和鱼不可兼得。 一般来说，喜欢孤注一掷的，无形中高赔率；喜欢积小成多的，选择无形中选择高胜率。 举个例子。 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