FLYTGR的个人主页 - 老虎社区

FLYTGR

FLYTGR

SLOW iS FAST

IP属地：上海

35关注

2粉丝

6主题

0勋章

04-19

四处战火纷飞回调都是机会

06-06

$NVDA 20240607 1200.0 CALL$ 强者恒强准备止盈

04-26

AMD 最先回调企稳看好业绩

06-20

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与实盘竞猜活动，寻找你心中的收益王者，竞猜最高可获得USD 500代金券奖励。此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

06-18

能否开个PC版本

06-08

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 震荡走低

06-03

提前发图有点意思先平仓等回落

05-30

共享办公鼻祖也被卷晕了期待翻身仗

消息称WeWork退出破产申请程序，公司CEO放弃收购股票的尝试

05-24

体验春夏秋冬征战东西南北

04-29

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 下跌趋势未改业绩很难大有突破

04-26

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与竞猜赢虎币活动，寻找你心中的实盘收益王，邀请好友最多可得250枚虎币此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

04-05

降息必然

美国3月非农就业出现爆炸性增长，美联储今年还会降息吗？

04-03

有点意思了

04-02

$OXY 20240412 65.0 CALL$ 虎虎生风

03-25

丰富多彩

03-21

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与竞猜赢虎币活动，寻找你心中的实盘收益王，邀请好友最多可得250枚虎币此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

03-05

再接再厉

2021-04-17

90%机构投资者？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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等回落","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/312951437078848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311520679674112,"gmtCreate":1717081123017,"gmtModify":1717081125056,"author":{"id":"3577056160881180","authorId":"3577056160881180","name":"FLYTGR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1f915a56788a1195a4d78077c960d7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"共享办公鼻祖也被卷晕了 期待翻身仗","listText":"共享办公鼻祖也被卷晕了 期待翻身仗","text":"共享办公鼻祖也被卷晕了 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回调都是机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296943179468936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":292044552130608,"gmtCreate":1712325875957,"gmtModify":1712325877541,"author":{"id":"3577056160881180","authorId":"3577056160881180","name":"FLYTGR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1f915a56788a1195a4d78077c960d7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"降息必然","listText":"降息必然","text":"降息必然","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/292044552130608","repostId":"2425563891","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2425563891","pubTimestamp":1712324700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2425563891?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-05 21:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国3月非农就业出现爆炸性增长，美联储今年还会降息吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2425563891","media":"智通财经","summary":"美国3月份就业人数增幅达到近一年来的最高水平，失业率下降，表明强劲的劳动力市场正在推动经济增长。在非农就业人数大幅增加的推动下，美国国债收益率和美元飙升。6月降息概率降低非农公布后，交易员削减了对美联储6月份降息可能性的押注。互换市场下调2024年美联储降息预期，美国利率期货定价美联储2024年将降息两次，将6月降息概率减少至54.5%，数据公布前为59.8%。互换市场将完全定价美联储首次降息的日期从7月推迟至9月。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月5日，美国劳工统计局周五公布报告显示，3月非农就业人数增加30.3万人，大幅高于预期的21.2万人；失业率降至3.8%。美国3月份就业人数增幅达到近一年来的最高水平，失业率下降，表明强劲的劳动力市场正在推动经济增长。</p><p>三月份的就业增长是由医疗保健、休闲和酒店以及建筑行业的快速招聘带动的。一项衡量就业增长广度的指标有所增加。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b9bf496b743be018f04039019afd2\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"334\"/></p><p>在非农就业人数大幅增加的推动下，美国国债收益率和美元飙升。美国劳动力市场仍然强劲，这将推迟降息的预期。</p><p>劳动力市场一直是美国经济的支柱，在物价高企和借贷成本高企的情况下，它为美国人提供了保持消费的资金。周五公布的数据引发了人们的疑问，即就业市场真正放缓了多少，以及这对美联储抗击通胀有多重要。</p><p>在4月30日至5月1日的美联储利率会议之前，下周将公布最新的消费者价格和生产者价格数据，随后公布美联储青睐的3月份通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数。</p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，劳动力供需已经达到更好的平衡，部分原因是移民增加。政策制定者强调，他们不急于降低借贷成本，即将公布的数据将指导这一决定。</p><p><strong>工资数据和失业率</strong></p><p>就业报告由两项调查组成：一项是对企业的调查，它产生了工资单和工资数据；另一项是对家庭的调查，它产生了失业率。</p><p>家庭调查还公布了自己的就业指标，3月份就业人数在前三个月下降后增加了近50万。鉴于申请失业救济人数和消费者支出等其他指标依然强劲，许多经济学家对该指标近期的疲软不以为然。</p><p>该调查还显示了劳动参与率上升至62.7%，这是自去年11月以来的首次上升。25-54岁工人的失业率降至83.4%，仍接近20年来的最高水平，鲍威尔也表示，这有助于缓解劳动力市场的紧张状况。</p><p>参与率的提高可能也有助于缓解工资压力。对企业的调查显示，平均时薪比2月份增长0.3%，比去年同期增长4.1%，这是自2021年年中以来的最低年增长率。</p><p><strong>6月降息概率降低</strong></p><p>非农公布后，交易员削减了对美联储6月份降息可能性的押注。互换市场下调2024年美联储降息预期，美国利率期货定价美联储2024年将降息两次，将6月降息概率减少至54.5%，数据公布前为59.8%。互换市场将完全定价美联储首次降息的日期从7月推迟至9月。</p><p><strong>杰弗瑞外汇业务全球主管Brad Bechtel表示，非农数据肯定会推低降息预期。可以看到市场已经定价9月之后才降息，这应该会继续在广泛的基础上支撑美元的强势。</strong></p><p>今年汇市一直盛行的是高收益与低收益的主题。至少在整个夏季，这将继续成为一种受欢迎的交易，但考虑到降息预期的转变，美元可能也会继续得到支撑。</p><p>Murphy &amp; Sylvest财富管理公司高级财富顾问和市场策略师Paul Nolte表示，数字上一切看起来都不错。参与率上升，工作时间增加。失业率下降的原因是更多的人加入了劳动力大军。这一数据仍然表明劳动力市场强劲。<strong>Nolte认为，美联储根本不会降息，因为经济强劲，所以这仍然符合我们的框架，即良好的就业数据应该让美联储保持观望立场。</strong></p><p>宏观分析人士表示，美国非农数据几乎没有表明经济正在脱轨或政策过于紧缩。一个值得关注的地方是，劳动力参与率意外上升，升至62.7%。这使得失业率保持在3.8%的预期水平，因此就业增长的强劲势头从表面上看是“真实”的。</p><p>美联储可能会因就业参与率的上升以及强劲的就业增长并未带来工资增长加速这一事实而感到一些安慰。那么，在劳动力市场如此强劲且通胀明显高于目标的情况下，很难有理由降息。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国3月非农就业出现爆炸性增长，美联储今年还会降息吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国3月非农就业出现爆炸性增长，美联储今年还会降息吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-05 21:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1098918.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月5日，美国劳工统计局周五公布报告显示，3月非农就业人数增加30.3万人，大幅高于预期的21.2万人；失业率降至3.8%。美国3月份就业人数增幅达到近一年来的最高水平，失业率下降，表明强劲的劳动力市场正在推动经济增长。三月份的就业增长是由医疗保健、休闲和酒店以及建筑行业的快速招聘带动的。一项衡量就业增长广度的指标有所增加。在非农就业人数大幅增加的推动下，美国国债收益率和美元飙升。美国劳动力市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1098918.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 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Bechtel表示，非农数据肯定会推低降息预期。可以看到市场已经定价9月之后才降息，这应该会继续在广泛的基础上支撑美元的强势。今年汇市一直盛行的是高收益与低收益的主题。至少在整个夏季，这将继续成为一种受欢迎的交易，但考虑到降息预期的转变，美元可能也会继续得到支撑。Murphy & Sylvest财富管理公司高级财富顾问和市场策略师Paul 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期待翻身仗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311520679674112","repostId":"1194677844","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1194677844","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1717080641,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194677844?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-30 22:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"消息称WeWork退出破产申请程序，公司CEO放弃收购股票的尝试","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194677844","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Wework将债权人持有的(至少)数十亿美元债券转化为股票。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>市场消息：WeWork退出破产申请程序，该公司CEO Neumann放弃收购公司股票的尝试。</p><p>Wework将债权人持有的(至少)数十亿美元债券转化为股票。</p><p>Wework预计将于2024年6月中旬摆脱债务，WeWork表示将削减超过40亿美元的预申请债务。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-05-30 22:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>市场消息：WeWork退出破产申请程序，该公司CEO Neumann放弃收购公司股票的尝试。</p><p>Wework将债权人持有的(至少)数十亿美元债券转化为股票。</p><p>Wework预计将于2024年6月中旬摆脱债务，WeWork表示将削减超过40亿美元的预申请债务。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10b32cd5968cbe80ffa6a59bb3206495","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194677844","content_text":"市场消息：WeWork退出破产申请程序，该公司CEO Neumann放弃收购公司股票的尝试。Wework将债权人持有的(至少)数十亿美元债券转化为股票。Wework预计将于2024年6月中旬摆脱债务，WeWork表示将削减超过40亿美元的预申请债务。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309379309043768,"gmtCreate":1716559763310,"gmtModify":1716559765576,"author":{"id":"3577056160881180","authorId":"3577056160881180","name":"FLYTGR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1f915a56788a1195a4d78077c960d7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"体验春夏秋冬 征战东西南北","listText":"体验春夏秋冬 征战东西南北","text":"体验春夏秋冬 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业绩很难大有突破","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300577077989576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299520293036288,"gmtCreate":1714144470196,"gmtModify":1714145020190,"author":{"id":"3577056160881180","authorId":"3577056160881180","name":"FLYTGR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1f915a56788a1195a4d78077c960d7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王","htmlText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/7wDQsP\">竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与竞猜赢虎币活动，寻找你心中的实盘收益王，邀请好友最多可得250枚虎币 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","listText":"查看详情：<a href=\"https://tigr.link/7wDQsP\">竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王</a> 快来参与竞猜赢虎币活动，寻找你心中的实盘收益王，邀请好友最多可得250枚虎币 此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户","text":"查看详情：竞猜赢虎币 ，寻找实盘收益王 快来参与竞猜赢虎币活动，寻找你心中的实盘收益王，邀请好友最多可得250枚虎币 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21:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国3月非农就业出现爆炸性增长，美联储今年还会降息吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2425563891","media":"智通财经","summary":"美国3月份就业人数增幅达到近一年来的最高水平，失业率下降，表明强劲的劳动力市场正在推动经济增长。在非农就业人数大幅增加的推动下，美国国债收益率和美元飙升。6月降息概率降低非农公布后，交易员削减了对美联储6月份降息可能性的押注。互换市场下调2024年美联储降息预期，美国利率期货定价美联储2024年将降息两次，将6月降息概率减少至54.5%，数据公布前为59.8%。互换市场将完全定价美联储首次降息的日期从7月推迟至9月。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月5日，美国劳工统计局周五公布报告显示，3月非农就业人数增加30.3万人，大幅高于预期的21.2万人；失业率降至3.8%。美国3月份就业人数增幅达到近一年来的最高水平，失业率下降，表明强劲的劳动力市场正在推动经济增长。</p><p>三月份的就业增长是由医疗保健、休闲和酒店以及建筑行业的快速招聘带动的。一项衡量就业增长广度的指标有所增加。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b9bf496b743be018f04039019afd2\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"334\"/></p><p>在非农就业人数大幅增加的推动下，美国国债收益率和美元飙升。美国劳动力市场仍然强劲，这将推迟降息的预期。</p><p>劳动力市场一直是美国经济的支柱，在物价高企和借贷成本高企的情况下，它为美国人提供了保持消费的资金。周五公布的数据引发了人们的疑问，即就业市场真正放缓了多少，以及这对美联储抗击通胀有多重要。</p><p>在4月30日至5月1日的美联储利率会议之前，下周将公布最新的消费者价格和生产者价格数据，随后公布美联储青睐的3月份通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数。</p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，劳动力供需已经达到更好的平衡，部分原因是移民增加。政策制定者强调，他们不急于降低借贷成本，即将公布的数据将指导这一决定。</p><p><strong>工资数据和失业率</strong></p><p>就业报告由两项调查组成：一项是对企业的调查，它产生了工资单和工资数据；另一项是对家庭的调查，它产生了失业率。</p><p>家庭调查还公布了自己的就业指标，3月份就业人数在前三个月下降后增加了近50万。鉴于申请失业救济人数和消费者支出等其他指标依然强劲，许多经济学家对该指标近期的疲软不以为然。</p><p>该调查还显示了劳动参与率上升至62.7%，这是自去年11月以来的首次上升。25-54岁工人的失业率降至83.4%，仍接近20年来的最高水平，鲍威尔也表示，这有助于缓解劳动力市场的紧张状况。</p><p>参与率的提高可能也有助于缓解工资压力。对企业的调查显示，平均时薪比2月份增长0.3%，比去年同期增长4.1%，这是自2021年年中以来的最低年增长率。</p><p><strong>6月降息概率降低</strong></p><p>非农公布后，交易员削减了对美联储6月份降息可能性的押注。互换市场下调2024年美联储降息预期，美国利率期货定价美联储2024年将降息两次，将6月降息概率减少至54.5%，数据公布前为59.8%。互换市场将完全定价美联储首次降息的日期从7月推迟至9月。</p><p><strong>杰弗瑞外汇业务全球主管Brad Bechtel表示，非农数据肯定会推低降息预期。可以看到市场已经定价9月之后才降息，这应该会继续在广泛的基础上支撑美元的强势。</strong></p><p>今年汇市一直盛行的是高收益与低收益的主题。至少在整个夏季，这将继续成为一种受欢迎的交易，但考虑到降息预期的转变，美元可能也会继续得到支撑。</p><p>Murphy &amp; Sylvest财富管理公司高级财富顾问和市场策略师Paul Nolte表示，数字上一切看起来都不错。参与率上升，工作时间增加。失业率下降的原因是更多的人加入了劳动力大军。这一数据仍然表明劳动力市场强劲。<strong>Nolte认为，美联储根本不会降息，因为经济强劲，所以这仍然符合我们的框架，即良好的就业数据应该让美联储保持观望立场。</strong></p><p>宏观分析人士表示，美国非农数据几乎没有表明经济正在脱轨或政策过于紧缩。一个值得关注的地方是，劳动力参与率意外上升，升至62.7%。这使得失业率保持在3.8%的预期水平，因此就业增长的强劲势头从表面上看是“真实”的。</p><p>美联储可能会因就业参与率的上升以及强劲的就业增长并未带来工资增长加速这一事实而感到一些安慰。那么，在劳动力市场如此强劲且通胀明显高于目标的情况下，很难有理由降息。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国3月非农就业出现爆炸性增长，美联储今年还会降息吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国3月非农就业出现爆炸性增长，美联储今年还会降息吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-05 21:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1098918.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月5日，美国劳工统计局周五公布报告显示，3月非农就业人数增加30.3万人，大幅高于预期的21.2万人；失业率降至3.8%。美国3月份就业人数增幅达到近一年来的最高水平，失业率下降，表明强劲的劳动力市场正在推动经济增长。三月份的就业增长是由医疗保健、休闲和酒店以及建筑行业的快速招聘带动的。一项衡量就业增长广度的指标有所增加。在非农就业人数大幅增加的推动下，美国国债收益率和美元飙升。美国劳动力市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1098918.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1098918.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2425563891","content_text":"4月5日，美国劳工统计局周五公布报告显示，3月非农就业人数增加30.3万人，大幅高于预期的21.2万人；失业率降至3.8%。美国3月份就业人数增幅达到近一年来的最高水平，失业率下降，表明强劲的劳动力市场正在推动经济增长。三月份的就业增长是由医疗保健、休闲和酒店以及建筑行业的快速招聘带动的。一项衡量就业增长广度的指标有所增加。在非农就业人数大幅增加的推动下，美国国债收益率和美元飙升。美国劳动力市场仍然强劲，这将推迟降息的预期。劳动力市场一直是美国经济的支柱，在物价高企和借贷成本高企的情况下，它为美国人提供了保持消费的资金。周五公布的数据引发了人们的疑问，即就业市场真正放缓了多少，以及这对美联储抗击通胀有多重要。在4月30日至5月1日的美联储利率会议之前，下周将公布最新的消费者价格和生产者价格数据，随后公布美联储青睐的3月份通胀指标——个人消费支出价格指数。美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，劳动力供需已经达到更好的平衡，部分原因是移民增加。政策制定者强调，他们不急于降低借贷成本，即将公布的数据将指导这一决定。工资数据和失业率就业报告由两项调查组成：一项是对企业的调查，它产生了工资单和工资数据；另一项是对家庭的调查，它产生了失业率。家庭调查还公布了自己的就业指标，3月份就业人数在前三个月下降后增加了近50万。鉴于申请失业救济人数和消费者支出等其他指标依然强劲，许多经济学家对该指标近期的疲软不以为然。该调查还显示了劳动参与率上升至62.7%，这是自去年11月以来的首次上升。25-54岁工人的失业率降至83.4%，仍接近20年来的最高水平，鲍威尔也表示，这有助于缓解劳动力市场的紧张状况。参与率的提高可能也有助于缓解工资压力。对企业的调查显示，平均时薪比2月份增长0.3%，比去年同期增长4.1%，这是自2021年年中以来的最低年增长率。6月降息概率降低非农公布后，交易员削减了对美联储6月份降息可能性的押注。互换市场下调2024年美联储降息预期，美国利率期货定价美联储2024年将降息两次，将6月降息概率减少至54.5%，数据公布前为59.8%。互换市场将完全定价美联储首次降息的日期从7月推迟至9月。杰弗瑞外汇业务全球主管Brad Bechtel表示，非农数据肯定会推低降息预期。可以看到市场已经定价9月之后才降息，这应该会继续在广泛的基础上支撑美元的强势。今年汇市一直盛行的是高收益与低收益的主题。至少在整个夏季，这将继续成为一种受欢迎的交易，但考虑到降息预期的转变，美元可能也会继续得到支撑。Murphy & Sylvest财富管理公司高级财富顾问和市场策略师Paul Nolte表示，数字上一切看起来都不错。参与率上升，工作时间增加。失业率下降的原因是更多的人加入了劳动力大军。这一数据仍然表明劳动力市场强劲。Nolte认为，美联储根本不会降息，因为经济强劲，所以这仍然符合我们的框架，即良好的就业数据应该让美联储保持观望立场。宏观分析人士表示，美国非农数据几乎没有表明经济正在脱轨或政策过于紧缩。一个值得关注的地方是，劳动力参与率意外上升，升至62.7%。这使得失业率保持在3.8%的预期水平，因此就业增长的强劲势头从表面上看是“真实”的。美联储可能会因就业参与率的上升以及强劲的就业增长并未带来工资增长加速这一事实而感到一些安慰。那么，在劳动力市场如此强劲且通胀明显高于目标的情况下，很难有理由降息。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":291346954096824,"gmtCreate":1712155646649,"gmtModify":1712155651075,"author":{"id":"3577056160881180","authorId":"3577056160881180","name":"FLYTGR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1f915a56788a1195a4d78077c960d7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有点意思了","listText":"有点意思了","text":"有点意思了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c3428dd49bbe5e2cdc13616ee12953","width":"1080","height":"1590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/291346954096824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":290987057967360,"gmtCreate":1712067648532,"gmtModify":1712067651210,"author":{"id":"3577056160881180","authorId":"3577056160881180","name":"FLYTGR","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1f915a56788a1195a4d78077c960d7","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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