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小老二
2021-03-17
起好快。。
小老二
2021-03-16
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
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小老二
2021-03-15
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小老二
2021-03-15
✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️
港股电商版块跌幅扩大，阿里成交大宗交易128万股
小老二
2021-03-14
起。。。。
小老二
2021-03-12
[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]
小老二
2021-03-09
这个怎样看
小老二
2021-03-07
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小老二
2021-03-06
😂😂😂😂😂
苹果是运气股，不是价值股
小老二
2021-03-05
。。。。。。。
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小老二
2021-03-04
🙈🙈🙈🙈
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2021-03-04
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2021-03-03
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13:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股电商版块跌幅扩大，阿里成交大宗交易128万股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2119990944","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"云财经讯，阿里巴巴股票在香港大宗交易128万股，成交价每股221.5港元。","content":"<p>3月15日消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>在香港市场成交大宗交易128万股，成交价每股221.5港元。</p><p>同时，港股电商版块跌幅扩大，阿里巴巴跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东</a>跌超5.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>跌超3%。市场监管总局据悉今年将制订网络交易平台责任清单。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0021a08ffece3226dd59832952e8491\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股电商版块跌幅扩大，阿里成交大宗交易128万股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股电商版块跌幅扩大，阿里成交大宗交易128万股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-15 13:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月15日消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>在香港市场成交大宗交易128万股，成交价每股221.5港元。</p><p>同时，港股电商版块跌幅扩大，阿里巴巴跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东</a>跌超5.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>跌超3%。市场监管总局据悉今年将制订网络交易平台责任清单。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0021a08ffece3226dd59832952e8491\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2161e8ddb469de4171b1fb09459c6b","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴","03690":"美团-W","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2119990944","content_text":"3月15日消息，阿里巴巴在香港市场成交大宗交易128万股，成交价每股221.5港元。同时，港股电商版块跌幅扩大，阿里巴巴跌超2%，京东跌超5.7%，美团跌超3%。市场监管总局据悉今年将制订网络交易平台责任清单。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":326488107,"gmtCreate":1615696786509,"gmtModify":1703492190378,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"起。。。。","listText":"起。。。。","text":"起。。。。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8a4104f988176a59a36d2fe178394e","width":"1080","height":"2209"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326488107","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328295980,"gmtCreate":1615527375540,"gmtModify":1703490462667,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] ","listText":"[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] ","text":"[惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/904b70c99d0ff5479ea2e186cde16a5d","width":"1080","height":"2209"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328295980","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329748205,"gmtCreate":1615283533407,"gmtModify":1703486727505,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个怎样看","listText":"这个怎样看","text":"这个怎样看","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627ce02e88fe83de6af746d919ab685f","width":"1080","height":"3041"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329748205","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320665726,"gmtCreate":1615094815065,"gmtModify":1703484699129,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👏👏👏👏👏","listText":"👏👏👏👏👏","text":"👏👏👏👏👏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320665726","repostId":"2117554496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320086367,"gmtCreate":1614990794759,"gmtModify":1703483966846,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😂😂😂😂😂","listText":"😂😂😂😂😂","text":"😂😂😂😂😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320086367","repostId":"2117688834","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2117688834","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"创业路上关键一招。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"接招","id":"1049897162","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27bae14b56414ca59b681e5e9b6a9596"},"pubTimestamp":1614910545,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2117688834?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-05 10:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果是运气股，不是价值股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117688834","media":"接招","summary":"前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信，苹果毫无悬念地再次成为伯克希尔旗下的第一重仓股，持仓市值达到1200亿美元，而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益（减持之后）。\n在净","content":"<p>前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>毫无悬念地再次成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>旗下的第一重仓股，持仓市值达到1200亿美元，而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益（减持之后）。</p>\n<p>在净利润遭受重创的2020年，幸亏还有水果公司给伯克希尔撑撑门面。</p>\n<p>过去十年，对于很多中国价值投资者来说，如果有三家公司是他们心目中理想的标的，一定是茅台、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和苹果。</p>\n<p>按照巴菲特的理念，所谓价值股就是一家具有护城河属性的公司被市场低估了。护城河不难理解，就是在某个市场具有垄断效应，比如茅台在高端白酒市场的影响力、腾讯在社交和游戏赛道的明显优势、苹果在高端手机市场的号召力。</p>\n<p>护城河的一个优势就是即使提价也不至于失去市场份额。茅台酒和苹果手机都是很明显的例子，这几年的售价一直在走高。</p>\n<p>关键是如何理解被低估，或者是如何给被低估的股票估值。</p>\n<p>价值投资的常用估值方法是现金流折现，用股东盈余除以一个合适的贴现率，就是公司的内在价值。反过来理解就是，你用一笔巨款买了长期国债，每年的利息收益就相当于是公司的股东盈余（一般接近净利润），而用利息收益除以利率，就是这笔巨款的真实数目，也就是公司的内在价值。</p>\n<p>所以，这套估值方法包含一个变量和一个常量：股东盈余是变量，贴现率（长期国债利率）是常量。</p>\n<p>巴菲特早年寻找被低估的股票时，更多的是考虑当时是否被低估，而不去关心是否还有成长性，俗称“捡烟头”。这类公司一般都是不太为人关注的小盘股，最终通过价格回归而不是价值增长达到合理估值区间。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资1.0。</p>\n<p>后来在芒格的影响下，开始寻找那些不仅被低估，而且未来还有巨大成长性的股票。这个转向标志着价值投资的重要分水岭：即从只是为了捡便宜转变为更加看重未来的赚钱能力。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资2.0。</p>\n<p>价值投资1.0与价值投资2.0不同之处在于，前者考虑的是当前被低估的股票，后者考虑的是未来被低估的股票。核心在于公司的赚钱能力（股东盈余）是不是持续增长。</p>\n<p>所以，股东盈余的增长就变成了对公司未来创造现金流能力的预测，比如根据公司净利润的增长情况，预测出未来十年一共能赚多少钱，除以10之后再除以一个贴现率就是公司真实的内在价值。</p>\n<p>可以看出，价值投资最难的是对公司赚钱能力的预测和估算，因为一般来说贴现率是死的，每年的净利润是活的。分母是静态的，分子是动态的。</p>\n<p>但过去五年，苹果市值的决定因素不是分子，而是分母！</p>\n<p>2016财年，苹果的营收是2100亿美元，净利润是450亿美元；2020财年，营收是2700亿美元，净利润是570亿美元。两个最能代表盈利能力的指标，增幅分别为28%和26%。</p>\n<p>再来看看同为消费股王者的茅台：2016财年营收是400亿人民币，2020年财报虽然还没出来，但900亿的营收应该问题不大；2016年净利润180亿人民币，去年的净利应该在500亿人民币左右。两个指标的增幅分别为125%和170%。</p>\n<p>茅台从2016年到2020年，市值增长了9倍；同一时期苹果市值增长了4倍多。但是，过去五年茅台的盈利能力翻倍了，而苹果的盈利增速只有30%以内（注意：不是每年增长30%，而是五年一共增长了30%）。苹果靠什么撑起了如此高的市值？</p>\n<p>答案是分母变了。而且是巨大的变化。巴菲特在这次的股东信中提到，最近十年美国十年期国债的收益率不到1%，去年最低时只有0.5%，而在40年前，这个数字是15%。即使五年前，美国十年期国债的收益率也是接近2.5%。</p>\n<p>读过小学三年级的人都知道，在分子无明显变化的情况下，分母越小商就越大。</p>\n<p>如果非要说股神对苹果的买进属于价值投资，那也是价值投资1.0，即按照捡烟头的思路适时抄底。但无论如何，这笔交易也不属于价值投资2.0。毕竟，就营收和利润增长速度来看，苹果在科技股公司中都算慢的了。</p>\n<p>真正要感谢的，是美联储，是特朗普。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果是运气股，不是价值股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1049897162\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/27bae14b56414ca59b681e5e9b6a9596);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">接招 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-05 10:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>毫无悬念地再次成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>旗下的第一重仓股，持仓市值达到1200亿美元，而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益（减持之后）。</p>\n<p>在净利润遭受重创的2020年，幸亏还有水果公司给伯克希尔撑撑门面。</p>\n<p>过去十年，对于很多中国价值投资者来说，如果有三家公司是他们心目中理想的标的，一定是茅台、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和苹果。</p>\n<p>按照巴菲特的理念，所谓价值股就是一家具有护城河属性的公司被市场低估了。护城河不难理解，就是在某个市场具有垄断效应，比如茅台在高端白酒市场的影响力、腾讯在社交和游戏赛道的明显优势、苹果在高端手机市场的号召力。</p>\n<p>护城河的一个优势就是即使提价也不至于失去市场份额。茅台酒和苹果手机都是很明显的例子，这几年的售价一直在走高。</p>\n<p>关键是如何理解被低估，或者是如何给被低估的股票估值。</p>\n<p>价值投资的常用估值方法是现金流折现，用股东盈余除以一个合适的贴现率，就是公司的内在价值。反过来理解就是，你用一笔巨款买了长期国债，每年的利息收益就相当于是公司的股东盈余（一般接近净利润），而用利息收益除以利率，就是这笔巨款的真实数目，也就是公司的内在价值。</p>\n<p>所以，这套估值方法包含一个变量和一个常量：股东盈余是变量，贴现率（长期国债利率）是常量。</p>\n<p>巴菲特早年寻找被低估的股票时，更多的是考虑当时是否被低估，而不去关心是否还有成长性，俗称“捡烟头”。这类公司一般都是不太为人关注的小盘股，最终通过价格回归而不是价值增长达到合理估值区间。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资1.0。</p>\n<p>后来在芒格的影响下，开始寻找那些不仅被低估，而且未来还有巨大成长性的股票。这个转向标志着价值投资的重要分水岭：即从只是为了捡便宜转变为更加看重未来的赚钱能力。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资2.0。</p>\n<p>价值投资1.0与价值投资2.0不同之处在于，前者考虑的是当前被低估的股票，后者考虑的是未来被低估的股票。核心在于公司的赚钱能力（股东盈余）是不是持续增长。</p>\n<p>所以，股东盈余的增长就变成了对公司未来创造现金流能力的预测，比如根据公司净利润的增长情况，预测出未来十年一共能赚多少钱，除以10之后再除以一个贴现率就是公司真实的内在价值。</p>\n<p>可以看出，价值投资最难的是对公司赚钱能力的预测和估算，因为一般来说贴现率是死的，每年的净利润是活的。分母是静态的，分子是动态的。</p>\n<p>但过去五年，苹果市值的决定因素不是分子，而是分母！</p>\n<p>2016财年，苹果的营收是2100亿美元，净利润是450亿美元；2020财年，营收是2700亿美元，净利润是570亿美元。两个最能代表盈利能力的指标，增幅分别为28%和26%。</p>\n<p>再来看看同为消费股王者的茅台：2016财年营收是400亿人民币，2020年财报虽然还没出来，但900亿的营收应该问题不大；2016年净利润180亿人民币，去年的净利应该在500亿人民币左右。两个指标的增幅分别为125%和170%。</p>\n<p>茅台从2016年到2020年，市值增长了9倍；同一时期苹果市值增长了4倍多。但是，过去五年茅台的盈利能力翻倍了，而苹果的盈利增速只有30%以内（注意：不是每年增长30%，而是五年一共增长了30%）。苹果靠什么撑起了如此高的市值？</p>\n<p>答案是分母变了。而且是巨大的变化。巴菲特在这次的股东信中提到，最近十年美国十年期国债的收益率不到1%，去年最低时只有0.5%，而在40年前，这个数字是15%。即使五年前，美国十年期国债的收益率也是接近2.5%。</p>\n<p>读过小学三年级的人都知道，在分子无明显变化的情况下，分母越小商就越大。</p>\n<p>如果非要说股神对苹果的买进属于价值投资，那也是价值投资1.0，即按照捡烟头的思路适时抄底。但无论如何，这笔交易也不属于价值投资2.0。毕竟，就营收和利润增长速度来看，苹果在科技股公司中都算慢的了。</p>\n<p>真正要感谢的，是美联储，是特朗普。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2117688834","content_text":"前几天巴菲特发布了一年一度的致股东信，苹果毫无悬念地再次成为伯克希尔旗下的第一重仓股，持仓市值达到1200亿美元，而2016年的买入成本是300亿美元。5年时间获得了三倍的账面收益（减持之后）。\n在净利润遭受重创的2020年，幸亏还有水果公司给伯克希尔撑撑门面。\n过去十年，对于很多中国价值投资者来说，如果有三家公司是他们心目中理想的标的，一定是茅台、腾讯和苹果。\n按照巴菲特的理念，所谓价值股就是一家具有护城河属性的公司被市场低估了。护城河不难理解，就是在某个市场具有垄断效应，比如茅台在高端白酒市场的影响力、腾讯在社交和游戏赛道的明显优势、苹果在高端手机市场的号召力。\n护城河的一个优势就是即使提价也不至于失去市场份额。茅台酒和苹果手机都是很明显的例子，这几年的售价一直在走高。\n关键是如何理解被低估，或者是如何给被低估的股票估值。\n价值投资的常用估值方法是现金流折现，用股东盈余除以一个合适的贴现率，就是公司的内在价值。反过来理解就是，你用一笔巨款买了长期国债，每年的利息收益就相当于是公司的股东盈余（一般接近净利润），而用利息收益除以利率，就是这笔巨款的真实数目，也就是公司的内在价值。\n所以，这套估值方法包含一个变量和一个常量：股东盈余是变量，贴现率（长期国债利率）是常量。\n巴菲特早年寻找被低估的股票时，更多的是考虑当时是否被低估，而不去关心是否还有成长性，俗称“捡烟头”。这类公司一般都是不太为人关注的小盘股，最终通过价格回归而不是价值增长达到合理估值区间。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资1.0。\n后来在芒格的影响下，开始寻找那些不仅被低估，而且未来还有巨大成长性的股票。这个转向标志着价值投资的重要分水岭：即从只是为了捡便宜转变为更加看重未来的赚钱能力。这个阶段可以称之为价值投资2.0。\n价值投资1.0与价值投资2.0不同之处在于，前者考虑的是当前被低估的股票，后者考虑的是未来被低估的股票。核心在于公司的赚钱能力（股东盈余）是不是持续增长。\n所以，股东盈余的增长就变成了对公司未来创造现金流能力的预测，比如根据公司净利润的增长情况，预测出未来十年一共能赚多少钱，除以10之后再除以一个贴现率就是公司真实的内在价值。\n可以看出，价值投资最难的是对公司赚钱能力的预测和估算，因为一般来说贴现率是死的，每年的净利润是活的。分母是静态的，分子是动态的。\n但过去五年，苹果市值的决定因素不是分子，而是分母！\n2016财年，苹果的营收是2100亿美元，净利润是450亿美元；2020财年，营收是2700亿美元，净利润是570亿美元。两个最能代表盈利能力的指标，增幅分别为28%和26%。\n再来看看同为消费股王者的茅台：2016财年营收是400亿人民币，2020年财报虽然还没出来，但900亿的营收应该问题不大；2016年净利润180亿人民币，去年的净利应该在500亿人民币左右。两个指标的增幅分别为125%和170%。\n茅台从2016年到2020年，市值增长了9倍；同一时期苹果市值增长了4倍多。但是，过去五年茅台的盈利能力翻倍了，而苹果的盈利增速只有30%以内（注意：不是每年增长30%，而是五年一共增长了30%）。苹果靠什么撑起了如此高的市值？\n答案是分母变了。而且是巨大的变化。巴菲特在这次的股东信中提到，最近十年美国十年期国债的收益率不到1%，去年最低时只有0.5%，而在40年前，这个数字是15%。即使五年前，美国十年期国债的收益率也是接近2.5%。\n读过小学三年级的人都知道，在分子无明显变化的情况下，分母越小商就越大。\n如果非要说股神对苹果的买进属于价值投资，那也是价值投资1.0，即按照捡烟头的思路适时抄底。但无论如何，这笔交易也不属于价值投资2.0。毕竟，就营收和利润增长速度来看，苹果在科技股公司中都算慢的了。\n真正要感谢的，是美联储，是特朗普。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364788990,"gmtCreate":1614874278110,"gmtModify":1703482440389,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"。。。。。。。","listText":"。。。。。。。","text":"。。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364788990","repostId":"2116384520","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":364819919,"gmtCreate":1614832401531,"gmtModify":1703481717774,"author":{"id":"3576476136293909","authorId":"3576476136293909","name":"小老二","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c4122726bb17be855a0fd1a62d04a04","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576476136293909","idStr":"3576476136293909"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙈🙈🙈🙈","listText":"🙈🙈🙈🙈","text":"🙈🙈🙈🙈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364819919","repostId":"2116256529","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"view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