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特粉江渝

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01-05

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

Mobileye：内忧外患，前景黯淡

2023-10-18

不能追高，等回调了可以上车

2023-10-18

$极兔速递-W(01519)$ 会参与打新！不知道能不能中签

2023-10-18

感觉做多比唱空更加容易！永远不要做空特斯拉

2023-10-14

$Tempest Therapeutics Inc.(TPST)$ 要逆市加仓！跌得越多机会越大！

2023-01-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 大等待起飞

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 </p><p>由于英特尔面临着自己的实际问题，它决定直接让Mobileye股票上市。该公司于2022年秋季以每股21美元的价格出售了6%的股份，当时整个科技行业正面临艰难时期。</p><p>股价在首日交易中上涨至每股27美元，使该公司的股权估值达到210亿美元，高于2017年的收购价格。然而，如果我们考虑到后续投资和随着时间的推移，英特尔希望这些资产的估值达到500亿美元。</p><p>2020年前，Mobileye的销售额为8.79亿美元，但运营亏损为8600万美元。2020年收入增长10%至9.67亿美元，但运营亏损大幅上升至2.13亿美元。2021年收入增长加速，增长43%至13.9亿美元，营业亏损收窄至1.74亿美元，因为GAAP亏损主要是巨额研发费用和摊销费用造成的。</p><p>2022年上半年收入增长21%，达到8.54亿美元，IPO时第三季度初步销售额预计增长38%，运营势头正在改善，净利润也出现小幅增长。不用说，所有这一切导致估值倍数很高，收入趋势为18亿美元，因为超过10倍的销售额倍数伴随着更快的增长，但这是在GAAP亏损的情况下发生的，而且该公司仍然受到严格控制。</p><p>到2022年12月下旬，股价甚至上涨至34美元，第三季度销售额升至4.5亿美元，调整后营业利润为1.43亿美元，对账主要是由于摊销费用，而不是基于股票的补偿费用。这一切看起来更加令人印象深刻，第四季度的销售额令人信服地超过了5亿美元大关，但以13倍的销售额和50倍的调整后营业利润计算，股价绝不便宜。</p><p>自2023年初以来，Mobileye的股价一直在相对狭窄的35美元至45美元交易区间内交易。今年1月，该公司宣布第四季度销售额令人信服地增长了59%，达到5.65亿美元，调整后的营业利润为2.17亿美元，如果我们取消股票补偿费用，则为1.55亿美元。   </p><p>这使得全年销售额增长了35%，达到18.7亿美元，而该公司预计2023年销售额将增长约20%，达到22.2亿美元（处于指导中值）。调整后的营业利润中位数为6.02亿美元，如果考虑到基于股票的薪酬费用，则为3.39亿美元，实际营业利润仅为每股0.43美元。</p><p>第一季度销售额增长16%，达到4.58亿美元，由于在华市场形势严峻，增长放缓。全年销售指导中值已下调至20.9亿美元，实际营业利润约为2.93亿美元。</p><p>6月份，英特尔以每股42美元的价格出售了3850万股该公司股票，这甚至不包括绿鞋期权。7月份，投资者不得不承受真正的失望，第二季度销售额下降1%，至4.54亿美元。虽然该公司维持了销售指引，但实际上提高了盈利指引，这感觉有点违反直觉，但随着Mobileye本身的供应链也有所放松。</p><p>10月份，Mobileye报告第三季度销售额增长18%，达到5.3亿美元，势头再次回归，但仍将全年销售额指引下调至20.8亿美元。由于较高的营业利润和较低的股票补偿费用，实际营业利润约为4亿美元，导致每股营业利润约为0.5美元。</p><p>在1月份的第一个交易日中，Mobileye给投资者带来了巨大的负面惊喜。初步全年业绩显示，2022年销售额约为20.8亿美元，基本与最新修订一致，实际营业利润高达4.38亿美元，看起来相当令人欣慰，而且好于预期。</p><p>按照这个速度，该公司销售了约3500万台EyeQ和SuperVision，平均价格在50美元左右，因为这两个数字相乘得出的收入约为20亿美元。这个数字很重要，因为该公司宣布其客户持有6-700万个此类设备（几乎全部是EyeQ）的过剩库存，价值高达4亿美元，这是制造商为了掌控供应链而持有过剩库存的结果限制。</p><p>因此，第一季度的前景非常黯淡，销售额预计将减少一半，尽管今年晚些时候可能会恢复增长，目前预计今年的收入将降至1.83-19.6亿美元。这是令人担忧的，因为即使我们在这个收入数字上再加上大约20%，如果库存过剩没有发生，实际的收入增长也将相当温和。此外，实际的营业利润几乎持平，几乎没有正值，这与今年的利润相比，收入每下降一美元，就超过了盈利，这是这里的第二个负面意外。   </p><p>Mobileye的8.1亿股股票已跌至30美元大关，足足下跌了10美元，因为该公司的股权估值为243亿美元。其中包括约12亿美元的净现金，因为在缺乏实际收益的情况下，由此产生的230亿美元估值仍达到两位数的销售额倍数。</p><p>新的日历年刚刚过去几天，Mobileye就已经承认这是失败的一年，如果我们针对库存过剩进行调整，其业绩将令人担忧，增长温和，利润率极低。即使看到“正常”增长，股价也不便宜。   </p></body></html>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Mobileye：内忧外患，前景黯淡</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMobileye：内忧外患，前景黯淡\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-05 17:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jPAfwjDyUqQH8TX3ylQRfg><strong>华尔街大事件</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Mobileye Global正在全速前进，因为自前几个月在艰难的市场环境中首次公开募股以来，该公司表现非常好。虽然该业务的定位有很多值得称赞的地方，但也存在一些担忧（主要与估值有关）。该公司预计2023年将继续增长，尽管速度较慢，但在2024年开始时发布的巨额且持久的利润预警令投资者感到惊讶，这让我对此非常谨慎。Mobileye的目标是大规模实现自动驾驶，这一强大的定位促使英特尔公司在2017年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jPAfwjDyUqQH8TX3ylQRfg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa539ef16fdcd444558a7c64b52628f2","relate_stocks":{"MBLY":"Mobileye Global Inc.","BK4157":"电子设备和仪器","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0321505439.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Acc SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4124":"机动车零配件与设备","BK4529":"IDC概念","INTC":"英特尔","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jPAfwjDyUqQH8TX3ylQRfg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1164294149","content_text":"Mobileye Global正在全速前进，因为自前几个月在艰难的市场环境中首次公开募股以来，该公司表现非常好。虽然该业务的定位有很多值得称赞的地方，但也存在一些担忧（主要与估值有关）。该公司预计2023年将继续增长，尽管速度较慢，但在2024年开始时发布的巨额且持久的利润预警令投资者感到惊讶，这让我对此非常谨慎。Mobileye的目标是大规模实现自动驾驶，这一强大的定位促使英特尔公司在2017年以150亿美元的价格收购了该业务，以加速其增长和采用。从那时起，该公司不断发展壮大，数以亿计的汽车配备了Mobileye开发的功能，并由50多家制造商采用，并应用于近千种车型中。   由于英特尔面临着自己的实际问题，它决定直接让Mobileye股票上市。该公司于2022年秋季以每股21美元的价格出售了6%的股份，当时整个科技行业正面临艰难时期。股价在首日交易中上涨至每股27美元，使该公司的股权估值达到210亿美元，高于2017年的收购价格。然而，如果我们考虑到后续投资和随着时间的推移，英特尔希望这些资产的估值达到500亿美元。2020年前，Mobileye的销售额为8.79亿美元，但运营亏损为8600万美元。2020年收入增长10%至9.67亿美元，但运营亏损大幅上升至2.13亿美元。2021年收入增长加速，增长43%至13.9亿美元，营业亏损收窄至1.74亿美元，因为GAAP亏损主要是巨额研发费用和摊销费用造成的。2022年上半年收入增长21%，达到8.54亿美元，IPO时第三季度初步销售额预计增长38%，运营势头正在改善，净利润也出现小幅增长。不用说，所有这一切导致估值倍数很高，收入趋势为18亿美元，因为超过10倍的销售额倍数伴随着更快的增长，但这是在GAAP亏损的情况下发生的，而且该公司仍然受到严格控制。到2022年12月下旬，股价甚至上涨至34美元，第三季度销售额升至4.5亿美元，调整后营业利润为1.43亿美元，对账主要是由于摊销费用，而不是基于股票的补偿费用。这一切看起来更加令人印象深刻，第四季度的销售额令人信服地超过了5亿美元大关，但以13倍的销售额和50倍的调整后营业利润计算，股价绝不便宜。自2023年初以来，Mobileye的股价一直在相对狭窄的35美元至45美元交易区间内交易。今年1月，该公司宣布第四季度销售额令人信服地增长了59%，达到5.65亿美元，调整后的营业利润为2.17亿美元，如果我们取消股票补偿费用，则为1.55亿美元。   这使得全年销售额增长了35%，达到18.7亿美元，而该公司预计2023年销售额将增长约20%，达到22.2亿美元（处于指导中值）。调整后的营业利润中位数为6.02亿美元，如果考虑到基于股票的薪酬费用，则为3.39亿美元，实际营业利润仅为每股0.43美元。第一季度销售额增长16%，达到4.58亿美元，由于在华市场形势严峻，增长放缓。全年销售指导中值已下调至20.9亿美元，实际营业利润约为2.93亿美元。6月份，英特尔以每股42美元的价格出售了3850万股该公司股票，这甚至不包括绿鞋期权。7月份，投资者不得不承受真正的失望，第二季度销售额下降1%，至4.54亿美元。虽然该公司维持了销售指引，但实际上提高了盈利指引，这感觉有点违反直觉，但随着Mobileye本身的供应链也有所放松。10月份，Mobileye报告第三季度销售额增长18%，达到5.3亿美元，势头再次回归，但仍将全年销售额指引下调至20.8亿美元。由于较高的营业利润和较低的股票补偿费用，实际营业利润约为4亿美元，导致每股营业利润约为0.5美元。在1月份的第一个交易日中，Mobileye给投资者带来了巨大的负面惊喜。初步全年业绩显示，2022年销售额约为20.8亿美元，基本与最新修订一致，实际营业利润高达4.38亿美元，看起来相当令人欣慰，而且好于预期。按照这个速度，该公司销售了约3500万台EyeQ和SuperVision，平均价格在50美元左右，因为这两个数字相乘得出的收入约为20亿美元。这个数字很重要，因为该公司宣布其客户持有6-700万个此类设备（几乎全部是EyeQ）的过剩库存，价值高达4亿美元，这是制造商为了掌控供应链而持有过剩库存的结果限制。因此，第一季度的前景非常黯淡，销售额预计将减少一半，尽管今年晚些时候可能会恢复增长，目前预计今年的收入将降至1.83-19.6亿美元。这是令人担忧的，因为即使我们在这个收入数字上再加上大约20%，如果库存过剩没有发生，实际的收入增长也将相当温和。此外，实际的营业利润几乎持平，几乎没有正值，这与今年的利润相比，收入每下降一美元，就超过了盈利，这是这里的第二个负面意外。  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