无人扶我青云志炒股的个人主页 - 老虎社区

无人扶我青云志炒股

无人扶我青云志炒股

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IP属地：安徽

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无人扶我青云志炒股

12-04

$NQ100指数主连 2412(NQmain)$ $三倍做多半导体ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ $Defiance 2X(MSTX)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ 从未离开开启川普四年

无人扶我青云志炒股

2022-04-07

$惠普(HPQ)$跟风小玩一下

无人扶我青云志炒股

2022-04-04

他是给金融行业带货的吧

推特盘前暴涨逾21%，马斯克持有其9.2%被动股权

无人扶我青云志炒股

2022-04-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$看一个季度的交付已经没意义，特别是你们还热衷于跟分析师预期比，上下两三个点的误差有什么可比的？现在的关键问题就下面几个：1.供应链及产能受限影响的交付周期，导致的潜在客户移情别恋，过长或者过短的交付期都不利，股价的峰值在特斯拉全系交付期为20-30天时，这个时候就可以撤去其他成长潜力更好的公司了。2.跟中国微妙的关系，以及决策者对这个大鲶鱼态度的延续性，3.社会整体通胀持续导致的硬着陆，以至于风险资产重新定价的系统性风险。而俄乌战争、疫情以及原材料上涨等影响微不足道。

无人扶我青云志炒股

2022-03-30

$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$还有没有机会

无人扶我青云志炒股

2022-03-29

$TSLA 20220408 1100.0 CALL$ 可以走吗

无人扶我青云志炒股

2022-03-28

不明白他想干啥？

特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克称自己再次感染了新冠病毒

无人扶我青云志炒股

2022-03-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$大概率今晚磨期权双杀

无人扶我青云志炒股

2022-03-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$之前这张卖着急了，再拿1个小时就好了。

无人扶我青云志炒股

2022-03-23

$TSLA 20220414 1050.0 CALL$ 减仓后还剩下2张期权。这2张暂时不走了看看情况$特斯拉(TSLA)$

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-11-22

$GME 20211217 350.0 CALL(GME)$[财迷]

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-11-20

$NVDA 20220121 370.0 CALL(NVDA)$错过了17的高价卖出。不知道这次能不能行权

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-11-20

$GME 20211217 350.0 CALL(GME)$昨天差点在开盘时候卖掉，还好睡着来

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-11-17

内容太长。看不完

它只是个漂亮泡泡——有理有据地给元宇宙泼一盆冷水

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-11-06

$NVDA 20211210 340.0 CALL(NVDA)$未来可期

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-11-05

$NVDA 20220121 400.0 CALL(NVDA)$预测7千亿市值，果然到7千亿。万亿市值不是梦参考特斯拉。

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-11-04

$NVDA 20211217 325.0 CALL(NVDA)$今天这是突破7000亿市值

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-11-03

$AMC院线(AMC)$是有什么利好消息？

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-07-06

$Marin Software Inc.(MRIN)$还行

无人扶我青云志炒股

2021-06-24

$AMC院线(AMC)$就这样一直磨期权吗？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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开启川普四年","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378022163337304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619506113,"gmtCreate":1649321210231,"gmtModify":1649321210231,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">$惠普(HPQ)$</a>跟风小玩一下","listText":"<a 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class=\"h-time\">2022-04-04 18:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">推特</a>美股盘前交易量上升，涨幅扩大至21%；监管文件显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO马斯克持有推特9.2%的被动股权。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec3d05c88f3a96100930d043ca0d447\" tg-width=\"1889\" tg-height=\"842\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eebc2b7878fdad8f8760a92aeb154dd5\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f77d3f9209ef2d10ff4f134857e939d","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","TWTR":"Twitter","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139602879","content_text":"4月4日，推特美股盘前交易量上升，涨幅扩大至21%；监管文件显示，特斯拉CEO马斯克持有推特9.2%的被动股权。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619308934,"gmtCreate":1648951691664,"gmtModify":1648953519654,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>看一个季度的交付已经没意义，特别是你们还热衷于跟分析师预期比，上下两三个点的误差有什么可比的？现在的关键问题就下面几个：1.供应链及产能受限影响的交付周期，导致的潜在客户移情别恋，过长或者过短的交付期都不利，股价的峰值在特斯拉全系交付期为20-30天时，这个时候就可以撤去其他成长潜力更好的公司了。2.跟中国微妙的关系，以及决策者对这个大鲶鱼态度的延续性，3.社会整体通胀持续导致的硬着陆，以至于风险资产重新定价的系统性风险。而俄乌战争、疫情以及原材料上涨等影响微不足道。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>看一个季度的交付已经没意义，特别是你们还热衷于跟分析师预期比，上下两三个点的误差有什么可比的？现在的关键问题就下面几个：1.供应链及产能受限影响的交付周期，导致的潜在客户移情别恋，过长或者过短的交付期都不利，股价的峰值在特斯拉全系交付期为20-30天时，这个时候就可以撤去其他成长潜力更好的公司了。2.跟中国微妙的关系，以及决策者对这个大鲶鱼态度的延续性，3.社会整体通胀持续导致的硬着陆，以至于风险资产重新定价的系统性风险。而俄乌战争、疫情以及原材料上涨等影响微不足道。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$看一个季度的交付已经没意义，特别是你们还热衷于跟分析师预期比，上下两三个点的误差有什么可比的？现在的关键问题就下面几个：1.供应链及产能受限影响的交付周期，导致的潜在客户移情别恋，过长或者过短的交付期都不利，股价的峰值在特斯拉全系交付期为20-30天时，这个时候就可以撤去其他成长潜力更好的公司了。2.跟中国微妙的关系，以及决策者对这个大鲶鱼态度的延续性，3.社会整体通胀持续导致的硬着陆，以至于风险资产重新定价的系统性风险。而俄乌战争、疫情以及原材料上涨等影响微不足道。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619308934","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":610259593,"gmtCreate":1648647419543,"gmtModify":1648647419543,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>还有没有机会","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>还有没有机会","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$还有没有机会","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed24144605f270aa2ec372f70723ee97","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610259593","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3550701815566535","authorId":"3550701815566535","name":"不为之007","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550701815566535","authorIdStr":"3550701815566535"},"content":"问下，这个1.5倍做多，有持仓时间限制吗？会不会强平？","text":"问下，这个1.5倍做多，有持仓时间限制吗？会不会强平？","html":"问下，这个1.5倍做多，有持仓时间限制吗？会不会强平？"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":610972282,"gmtCreate":1648483378008,"gmtModify":1648483378008,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220408 1100.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20220408 1100.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>可以走吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20220408 1100.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20220408 1100.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>可以走吗","text":"$TSLA 20220408 1100.0 CALL$ 可以走吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da3d0a515ffe7846b1bc54e6e907f104","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610972282","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1079,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":610904519,"gmtCreate":1648455843060,"gmtModify":1648455843060,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不明白 他想干啥？","listText":"不明白 他想干啥？","text":"不明白 他想干啥？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610904519","repostId":"1143867289","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143867289","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1648455626,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143867289?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-28 16:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克称自己再次感染了新冠病毒","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143867289","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周一消息，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克通过社交媒体表示：我应该再次感染新冠病毒了，但几乎没有症状。2020年11月，瑞典电视台曾报道称，马斯克在到访瑞典后被感染新冠肺炎病毒。当时，马斯克表示，他利用同一台","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周一消息，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克通过社交媒体表示：我应该再次感染新冠病毒了，但几乎没有症状。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0fc2f92a1d3a69d6ae5a898333d53b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2020年11月，瑞典电视台曾报道称，马斯克在到访瑞典后被感染新冠肺炎病毒。</p><p>当时，马斯克表示，他利用同一台机器进行了四次快速抗原测试，结果显示，他在同一天两次测试呈阳性，两次呈阴性。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克称自己再次感染了新冠病毒</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO埃隆·马斯克通过社交媒体表示：我应该再次感染新冠病毒了，但几乎没有症状。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af0fc2f92a1d3a69d6ae5a898333d53b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2020年11月，瑞典电视台曾报道称，马斯克在到访瑞典后被感染新冠肺炎病毒。</p><p>当时，马斯克表示，他利用同一台机器进行了四次快速抗原测试，结果显示，他在同一天两次测试呈阳性，两次呈阴性。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2059a9f67924b5eee4237994ba6bd39a","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143867289","content_text":"周一消息，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克通过社交媒体表示：我应该再次感染新冠病毒了，但几乎没有症状。2020年11月，瑞典电视台曾报道称，马斯克在到访瑞典后被感染新冠肺炎病毒。当时，马斯克表示，他利用同一台机器进行了四次快速抗原测试，结果显示，他在同一天两次测试呈阳性，两次呈阴性。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":637416313,"gmtCreate":1648195822771,"gmtModify":1648195822771,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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减仓后还剩下2张期权。这2张暂时不走了看看情况$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d8a22a69f6083aa94e3a27197f3f1a5","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/637626680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875054299,"gmtCreate":1637591734223,"gmtModify":1637591734223,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GME 20211217 350.0 CALL(GME)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GME 20211217 350.0 CALL(GME)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$GME 20211217 350.0 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370.0 CALL(NVDA)$错过了17的高价卖出。不知道这次能不能行权","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/168fda7bd3321856ce7721b0f4eac2cd","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876736557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464294287504557","authorId":"3464294287504557","name":"老铁来了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2464e458a80641114f6239a95fd33b5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464294287504557","authorIdStr":"3464294287504557"},"content":"行权和卖了期权去市场买正股有什么区别呢？另外我有这期400的call，我在想要不要换成350的，昨晚看350的涨幅比400的要大","text":"行权和卖了期权去市场买正股有什么区别呢？另外我有这期400的call，我在想要不要换成350的，昨晚看350的涨幅比400的要大","html":"行权和卖了期权去市场买正股有什么区别呢？另外我有这期400的call，我在想要不要换成350的，昨晚看350的涨幅比400的要大"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876739820,"gmtCreate":1637362441605,"gmtModify":1637362441605,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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CALL(GME)$昨天差点在开盘时候卖掉，还好睡着来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27aa3958c99f0638aac42323ed293c09","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876739820","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871434926,"gmtCreate":1637104722563,"gmtModify":1637104722563,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"内容太长。看不完","listText":"内容太长。看不完","text":"内容太长。看不完","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871434926","repostId":"2183005063","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2183005063","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1637046678,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2183005063?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-16 15:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"它只是个漂亮泡泡——有理有据地给元宇宙泼一盆冷水","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2183005063","media":"卫夕指北","summary":"我不懂元宇宙，但我懂逻辑。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/471b784b3d51eccc31f2eeb86a79f690\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>作者：卫夕</p>\n<p><b>从来没有一个词像“元宇宙”一样如此虚无缥缈、如此镜花水月却受到如此热烈的追捧。</b></p>\n<p>元宇宙和之前的科技概念不同，以前，在科技圈的一个概念至少是明确而又具体的，比如——“区块链”、“5G”、“3D打印”......</p>\n<p>然而，元宇宙不是，它虚幻缥缈而错综复杂，一如“浑元形意拳”。</p>\n<p><b>元宇宙是一个筐，什么都能往里装。</b></p>\n<p>在不同版本中，我看到了元宇宙至少要集成以下技术——</p>\n<p>“VR、AR、区块链、5G、云计算、数字孪生、人工<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>、NFT、边缘计算......甚至还有脑机接口”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e417388b827e3ece490ad17986c7f82\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>是滴，今天的元宇宙早已不是一个科技词汇，而是一个科幻词汇。</b></p>\n<p>在Facebook宣布将公司名字修改成“Meta”后，这种对元宇宙的吹捧和炒作达到了顶峰，这种盛况比几年前吹捧“区块链”有过之而无不及。</p>\n<p>我实在看不下去了，必须给它泼一盆冷水。</p>\n<p><b>在我看来，元宇宙是一个被吹出来的漂亮泡泡。</b></p>\n<p><b>我不仅这样说，我还要证明它只是一个被吹出来的漂亮泡泡——</b></p>\n<h2><b>一</b></h2>\n<p>为什么元宇宙如此火？</p>\n<p><b>毫无疑问其中一个原因是离不开Facebook的推波助澜。</b></p>\n<p>这两年Facebook的确是内忧外患，面临着隐私、监管等一系列极其复杂的局面，扎克伯克需要通过一个新的故事来激发公司低落的士气，毕竟卖广告已经很不酷了。</p>\n<p><b>我们当然不能把小扎的蓝图完全归结于营销噱头，但他描述的丰满未来在现实面前却极其骨感。</b></p>\n<p>非常讽刺的是——</p>\n<p>就在小扎在Connect大会描述元宇宙美好蓝图演讲的同一天，Oculus 的顾问CTO约翰卡马克就在同一个会议上硬生生地拆了小扎的台，直接了当地和老板唱起了反调。</p>\n<p>在了解卡马克具体讲了哪些话之前，我们需要了解一下为什么他的话重要。</p>\n<p>因此，我们必须认识一下这位传奇大神——他可能是这个星球在技术层面最懂元宇宙的人，甚至没有之一，为什么这么说呢？</p>\n<p><b>我们来简单了解一下这位在游戏界神一样的男人：</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52920c3ad7201989aaf44550b8b69f0f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"788\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>他年仅22岁就以一己之力开发了世界上第一款3D游戏——《德军总部》</b> ，之后又几乎单枪匹马带领仅仅13人的ID Software公司开发了《毁灭战士》和《雷神之锤》。</p>\n<p>而开发这些游戏的引擎就是业界3D游戏引擎的鼻祖，是他引领游戏进入3D时代，很多年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>都用《毁灭战士》的游戏表现来测试新一代显卡的性能。</p>\n<p><b>而大神最让业界称道的举动就是将这一引擎全部开源</b>，很多玩家耳熟能详的热门游戏诸如《半条命》等都是用这个引擎开发的。</p>\n<p>2013年，大神卡马克加入了Oculus团队，任CTO，过去8年，他作为Oculus的技术领袖带领团队开发了多个VR头盔项目。</p>\n<p><b>可以说，在Oculus公司，没有人会比卡马克更懂元宇宙需要的技术。</b></p>\n<p>那么他是如何说的呢？</p>\n<p><b>以下是他演讲中的一些原话——</b></p>\n<p>1.“我认为Metaverse是“太空人架构师的产品”，“太空人架构师”只想从最高层面夸夸其谈，并不关心GPU、微观架构、网络、流媒体等具体执行细节。”</p>\n<p>2.“我的担忧是，我们可能会投入数年的时间和数千人，可最终得到的是一些对今天的人们实际使用设备和硬件的方式没有多大贡献的东西。”</p>\n<p>3.“人们很容易做一些有趣的概念型技术，但如果不能被大量的人使用很长时间，或许这些所谓的新技术并没有那么重要。”</p>\n<p>4.“《Horizon World》（Facebook旗下的一款VR社交产品）是一款产品，一个可以明确判断的产品，比如有多少人在用、用户在里面做什么、商业表现如何等，现在《Horizon》与我们希望看到的Metaverse还有很大的差距，比如我们现在仅仅只能做到14人实时聊天，甚至离50-60人的“走廊式聊天”都还很远。”</p>\n<p>5.“对于很多人来说，即便VR设备0元白送可能也没什么帮助，我们的数据显示，有不少Quest设备实际上已被用户束之高阁，他们是流失用户，但手机用户就不会，每个人都要用手机。”</p>\n<p>这些话翻译一下就是——</p>\n<p><b>“小扎你快别TM吹牛了，都被你吹到天上去了，咱们现阶段做的这玩儿到底怎么样你心里没点B数吗？</b></p>\n<p><b>少TM废话，咱们脚踏实地拿出硬核的表现数据才是真的！”</b></p>\n<p>没错，一线听得见炮声的技术大神卡马克认为——元宇宙，我们还没准备好！</p>\n<p><b>而更残酷的事实是</b>——</p>\n<p>卡马克所在的Oculus是公认在消费级VR头显领域技术最为领先的公司，没有之一。</p>\n<h2><b>二</b></h2>\n<p><b>关于元宇宙的硬件，我们来进行一个简单的逻辑思考——</b></p>\n<p>从PC互联网到移动互联网的转变过程中，是因为手机足够便捷因而显著地提升了移动在线时长。</p>\n<p><b>即移动互联网繁荣的前提是足够的用户时长。</b></p>\n<p>而元宇宙要进一步提升在线时长为数不多的路径就是随时随地在线，而要做到随时随地在线，设备必须做到和正常的眼镜一样轻（至少不能比现在的日常眼镜重太多）。</p>\n<p>那么现在普通眼镜的重量是多少呢？</p>\n<p><b>答案是20-50克不等。</b></p>\n<p>那么现在最出色的VR眼镜Oculus Quest2是多重呢？</p>\n<p><b>答案是503克。</b></p>\n<p>而现在最出色的AR眼镜<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的HoloLens2是多重呢？</p>\n<p><b>答案是566克。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff7602b24e7b0aa6abc7d05e3ad69261\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我去年买的在吃灰的Oculus&nbsp;Quest2</p>\n<p><b>所以，这个巨大的差异就决定了元宇宙在硬件层面是一条极为漫长的道路。</b></p>\n<p>有人说，你之前说过，技术会指数级进步啊！</p>\n<p>注意：指数级进步发生的前提是信息世界而非原子世界：</p>\n<p>电池行业可并不存在摩尔定理，不然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>早就是白菜价了；</p>\n<p>透镜领域也不存在跨越式发展，不然今天的手机早就把摄像头做平了。</p>\n<p><b>没错，突破物理的极限比突破算力的极限难度要高一个数量级。</b></p>\n<p>而更为困难的是，我们可远不止让设备变轻这一个目标，而是在重量、算力、视场角、分辩率、刷新率、续航等多个领域都需要同步大幅度提升，这个叠加难度是指数级的。</p>\n<p><b>所以甭扯那些没用的！</b></p>\n<p>先把现阶段头显的90赫兹变成到120赫兹，把视场角从100度增加到150度，把价格降到千元内，把重量降到200克，把分辨率提升到单眼4K，把续航从2小时提升到5小时，把用户时长从现在的几分钟提升到1小时，行不行？</p>\n<p>到底行不行？</p>\n<p><b>不行就甭TM吹牛逼了！</b></p>\n<h2><b>三</b></h2>\n<p><b>还有一个非常关键的问题：</b></p>\n<p>由于现在通往元宇宙的XR技术还在初级阶段，因此硬件需要多维度、大幅度、快速更新（注意这三个词）才能适应实际需求。</p>\n<p>这对硬件而言本身就是一个极难的挑战，而多维度、大幅度、快速更新对于软件开发者而言同样是一场灾难。</p>\n<p><b>我们思考一个问题——为什么手机能做到一年发布一个新版本？</b></p>\n<p>原因就是因为手机的硬件更新是单维度、小幅度更新，相应的应用软件在适配层简单，用户的硬件iPhone12到iPhone13，微信、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>这些应用可能只要花几天就适配完了。</p>\n<p>然而VR设备则不是这样的，它的每一次更新在算力、视场角、分辨率、刷新率、控制方式、输入输出方式等多个维度通常都会更新。</p>\n<p><b>一旦有新硬件，软件为了适应这种复杂的更新在某种意义上就必须推倒重来，无论如何没办法做到几天就适配完。</b></p>\n<p>我们看到过去6年，光Oculus旗下就先后发布了Oculus rift、Gear VR、Oculus Go、Oculus Quest四种硬件。</p>\n<p>他们都是VR头盔，但却从头到脚、里里外外完全不同，甚至应用商店都是分开的，于是给软件开发商折腾的够惨。</p>\n<p>可怜的软件开发者们，吭哧吭哧好不容易开发上线一款作品还没开始赚钱，就被告知——</p>\n<p><b>“我们又有新硬件了，快来开发吧，不然跟不上我们的速度噢！”</b></p>\n<p>这就是Oculus平台过去6年的现状。</p>\n<p>为什么今年Oculus开发者大会没有发布大家呼声很高的Oculus Quest Pro？</p>\n<p>就是因为它知道也开发者需要休养生息不能继续这样被折腾了。</p>\n<p>而讽刺的是，扎克伯格今年在大会上对没有推出新硬件的解释是——<b>“我们认为Oculus Quest2已经足够优秀”</b></p>\n<p>呵呵，你能想象库克对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的粉丝说——</p>\n<p>“我们认为iPhone13已经足够优秀，因此明年不会有iPhone14了”吗？</p>\n<p><b>所以，VR硬件现阶段一个很难调和的矛盾就是急需升级的硬件和难以快速迭代的软件之间的矛盾。</b></p>\n<h2><b>四</b></h2>\n<p><b>咱们继续，我最想吐槽的点就是区块链在元宇宙里的应用了。</b></p>\n<p>媒体们把区块链作为元宇宙的底层技术大吹特吹，认为它必须成为元宇宙经济系统的基石。</p>\n<p>然而，很遗憾，这在逻辑上是站不住脚的。</p>\n<p>为什么这么说呢？</p>\n<p>我们从底层来逐一论证，请将以下六个表述划一个重点<b>——</b></p>\n<p><b>第一、区块链不可篡改、去中心化解决的是信任问题、公正问题，它本身不涉及生产力，只涉及生产关系；</b></p>\n<p><b>第二、区块链解决问题的方式在结果上是完美的，但在过程上是有成本的，比如冗余、效率和能耗；</b></p>\n<p><b>第三、现实中人类社会的信任问题、公正问题已经有现成的解决方案；</b></p>\n<p><b>第四、从目前看区块链解决方案在大部分情况下并没有比现实中已有解决方案表现的更优越；</b></p>\n<p><b>第五、区块链并没有广泛应用的原因在于技术问题、效率问题、共识问题、协作问题；</b></p>\n<p><b>第六、区块链在当今世界面临的这些应用问题在元宇宙里目前没有理由会自然消失，即这些问题依然会存在；</b></p>\n<p>没错，我们就问一个简单的问题——</p>\n<p>为什么微信公众号不用NFT而是用古典的原创标识来解决文章的版权问题呢？</p>\n<p>为什么支付宝不用智能合约来而是用古典的方式来解决确认收货再付款的问题呢？</p>\n<p>因为没必要嘛！</p>\n<p><b>那为什么到了元宇宙里，区块链就是必不可少的经济运行的基石技术呢？</b></p>\n<p>这TM说不通嘛！</p>\n<p>事实上，信任问题、公正问题并非是人类面临的唯一问题，甚至也不是最大问题，它只是人类面临的所有问题的一个小的子集。</p>\n<p><b>我们就问这些元宇宙砖家，被你们吹捧上天的元宇宙第一股</b>——Roblox，它的所有游戏玩法都基于NFT技术来保护原创吗？它的经济系统是使用基于区块链的加密货币吗？</p>\n<p>根本不是嘛！</p>\n<p>所以，别TM嘴硬！</p>\n<p>今天距2008年11月中本聪发布《Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System》论文已经13年了。</p>\n<p><b>没错，区块链是一项伟大的发明，在一些领域的确它有它的用武之地。</b></p>\n<p>但它绝不是万能的，也并不像很多人说的那样——“区块链的优势在于它不存在看得见的手”。</p>\n<p>事实上，我们长久历史已经证明：</p>\n<p><b>人类确实需要看得见的手，人类只是不需要闲不住的手而已。</b></p>\n<h2><b>五</b></h2>\n<p>无论哪一个元宇宙砖家都一致地宣称称未来元宇宙不可能一家独大，而是多家共存。</p>\n<p><b>好，基于这一个前提我们稍微做一下逻辑推演——</b></p>\n<p>多家共存是不是意味着多个元宇宙？</p>\n<p>Meta有Meta的元宇宙、微软有微软的元宇宙、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>有以社交为核心的元宇宙、阿里有以商业为核心的元宇宙........</p>\n<p><b>每一个元宇宙必然有它自己独特的规则，</b>那这时候请问各位砖家——去中性化到底如何实现？我怎么样才能无缝地从这个元宇宙切换到另一个元宇宙。</p>\n<p>这时候砖家又会跳出来说——各大元宇宙平台之间会有一套统一的标准接口和协议互联互通。</p>\n<p>你做梦吧，我就问你——</p>\n<p><b>今天各大平台各自为战构建围墙花园的问题即便在行政手段强制的情况下都没办法解决。</b></p>\n<p><b>凭什么到元宇宙时代互联互通就能自动实现了呢？</b></p>\n<p>请正面回答这个问题。</p>\n<p>“不管了，先TM吹一番再说！”</p>\n<p>还有，3D沉浸式体验的重要性其实也被砖家们在某种意义上夸大了。</p>\n<p>事实上，人类文明的很多成果其实都是2D的，人类的社交活动在很多时候也并非一定需要3D。</p>\n<p>举一个例子，我们最重要的社交APP微信，它其实有四种沟通媒介——文字、语音、图片、视频。</p>\n<p><b>然而我们使用最多的还是文字，没错，很多时候人类其实并不需要在媒介上进行升维。</b></p>\n<p>到了元宇宙里，你极大可能还是要带着头盔继续写PPT。</p>\n<p>不要笑，微软的元宇宙宣传里就是这么展示的。</p>\n<h2><b>六</b></h2>\n<p><b>然后咱们来说一说元宇宙第一股Roblox，很多人把Roblox的意义无限放大。</b></p>\n<p>我是反对这种论调的，相对于游戏公司，它的模式当然是独特而成功的。</p>\n<p>但我们不应该拔高这种成功，更不必将它奉为未来虚拟世界的样版，因为换一个角度理解Roblox结论就会不一样。</p>\n<p><b>Roblox的本质其实是一个像素游戏的AppStore，它其实是一个发行平台，只是开发游戏的语言用的是它像素风的编辑器而已。</b></p>\n<p>从这个意义上理解，我们就会发现Roblox并没有新鲜的东西。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56225ee9b50c0e78e6165b9f6a40d937\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"250\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>是滴，它是去中心化的、UGC的，游戏内容并不由官方设计，而是交给开发者。</p>\n<p>朋友们，App Store、微信小游戏甚至TapTap做的也是同样的事啊，无非是自己搭台别人唱戏嘛！</p>\n<p><b>Roblox无非是以一个游戏的面具做了一个游戏操作系统的事，它的确是一种创新的游戏类型，它成功但并不颠覆，更不意味着它会是未来的标准。</b></p>\n<p>事实上，UGC这个概念也被过分夸大了。</p>\n<p>现代世界能够正常运转的本质是PGC，背后的核心原因是因为PGC需要人类大规模的合作。</p>\n<p>《人类简史》的作者尤瓦尔赫拉利说——</p>\n<p><b>“我们的祖先区别于大猩猩的一个关键就在于人类能组织大规模复杂的合作。”</b></p>\n<h2><b>七</b></h2>\n<p><b>在有理有据的吐槽之后，接下来分享一段我曾经的伤心往事——</b></p>\n<p>2015年，VR的风已经从大洋彼岸的刮到了中国科技界。</p>\n<p>作为一名对前沿科技无限向往的青年，我在媒体的疯狂报道中对VR非常着迷，隐隐地感觉它将改变这个世界的一切，它一定是未来科技的方向。</p>\n<p><b>当年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>出了一份报告《虚拟现实：走向下一个计算平台》，表达了对VR坚定的看好。</b></p>\n<p>当年，易凯资本的王冉热情洋溢地写了一篇《一个“奥酷拉思”的未来&nbsp;--为什么我相信VR会改变娱乐业以及这个世界》的长文。</p>\n<p>在这篇长文中王冉系统地描述了VR无限美好的未来。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49321d5d4f273fe3277827c35a3bb1b5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"596\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当年我激动的朋友圈</p>\n<p>Oculus Rift上市，HTC宣布全面转型VR，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>宣布Daydream VR操作系统......彼时的科技圈VR的热度绝不亚于今天对于元宇宙的追捧。</p>\n<p><b>没错，澎湃的大潮在呼唤，我当时的想法只有一个——不能等了，我必须要拥抱VR。</b></p>\n<p>然而，2016年我还是一名广告产品经理，而很显然当时VR还没发展到需要广告变现的阶段，我的业务技能暂时没有用武之地。</p>\n<p>我非常焦虑，感觉自己要错过一个时代。</p>\n<p><b>不行，暂时的挫折浇灭不了热血青年拥抱科技大潮的决心。</b></p>\n<p>办法总比困难多，冥思苦想之后我决定发挥我的特长，我要写一本书，我要为虚拟现实布道，我让更多人认识VR的力量。</p>\n<p>于是，我切实行动起来了——采访、查阅、体验、写作......经过长达八个月的挑灯夜战、反复打磨再打磨。</p>\n<p><b>2016年11月，《VR革命：虚拟现实将如何改变我们的生活》一书出版了。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9769ab0b87cf5b727002540905d3571c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>书中我和腾飞非常详细地从多个角度介绍了VR这项伟大的技术以及它为什么即将改变世界（PS：书稿中关于VR与色情的章节在审查时无情地弊掉了，略遗憾）</p>\n<p><b>彼时的我，感觉自己随着科技的节拍在舞动，而即将到来的将是一个无比辉煌的VR时代。</b></p>\n<p>后来，后来的事情大家都知道了。</p>\n<p>.......</p>\n<p>我至今不好意思和朋友们提起我曾经写过这样一本书。</p>\n<p>不说了，脸疼。</p>\n<p>然而，我并不后悔，这段经历让我学会如何更加理性、冷静地看待科技行业的客观发展路径。</p>\n<p><b>我依然相信VR的未来，只是不再相信今天那些元宇宙砖家吹破天际的炒作。</b></p>\n<h2><b>八</b></h2>\n<p><b>说到底，元宇宙之所以被热炒，归根结底还是今天的科技圈走到了移动互联网的末端，元宇宙是科技圈前途焦虑的一次集体释放。</b></p>\n<p>它让内卷到只能去和菜贩抢生意的迷茫巨头们终于找到一个可以无限畅想的遥远方向。</p>\n<p>然而，我们一定要有清醒的认识，科技的发展有它客观的路径和速度，每一个虚无缥缈的未来都不会自动到来。</p>\n<p>事实上，有一些在悄然布局的中国公司其实都没有对外大肆宣传自己的元宇宙蓝图，因为他们深刻地理解：</p>\n<p><b>一张蓝图绘到底是靠不住的，这个市场终究要靠产品说话。</b></p>\n<p>腾讯引入了罗布乐思，投资了Epic，收购了多家相关公司；</p>\n<p>还有字节，收购了国内领先的VR制造商Pico、投资代码乾坤推出类Roblex的《重启世界》、投资数字孪生云服务公司众趣科技........</p>\n<p>但这两家无一例外从不大宣扬自己元宇宙的宏大叙事，因为他们清楚的知道，无论如何元宇宙在今天还是一个科幻概念。</p>\n<p>方向隐约是对滴，但路径大概率是错的。</p>\n<p><b>面对一个概念期的模糊方向，唯一能做的是——摸着石头过河过河，而不是直接去造一座宏伟的大桥。</b></p>\n<h2><b>九</b></h2>\n<p>今天吹捧元宇宙的人，大部分其实是像我当年一样年幼无知的“新科技茫然症”人群，不愿承认自己跟不上时代，生怕自己错过任何一个新风口。</p>\n<p><b>然而还有一部分纯粹就是坏，对于这帮坏人而言，任何一个新概念都是他们合法割韭菜的工具，炒作手段五花八门、眼花缭乱。</b></p>\n<p>我们以为他们看到了人类的未来与明天、看到了科技的星辰大海。</p>\n<p>事实上，他们看到的是一茬茬绿油油的待割韭菜。</p>\n<p><b>你以为是馅饼，其实是陷阱。</b></p>\n<p>这件事有意思的地方在于，很多人韭菜们其实心知肚明，但依然忍不住诱惑进场。</p>\n<p>毕竟在泡沫破裂之前，他们认为自己是割到了其他人的韭菜。</p>\n<p>每一个人都认为自己能在泡沫膨胀到最高点之前全身而退，美其名曰——与泡沫共舞。</p>\n<p>每当想到这里，我会郑重地提醒想去割韭菜的韭菜们，请认真回忆当年的虚拟现实第一股——暴风科技。</p>\n<p><b>韭菜们，镰刀已经架在脖子上了，快跑啊！</b></p>\n<h2><b>十</b></h2>\n<p>好，说到这里，元宇宙的砖家们一定会跳出来，指着我的鼻子——</p>\n<p>“你根本不懂元宇宙！”</p>\n<p><b>是滴，我的确不懂元宇宙，但我懂逻辑。</b></p>\n<p>作为一个理性的行业从业者，这时候我们唯一需要做的就是——</p>\n<p>赶紧洗洗睡，该干嘛干嘛去，默默做好自己手中的事，不要认为你会错过什么，未来一定会来，但绝不会提前到来。</p>\n<p>我赌五毛钱——</p>\n<p>十年之后，我们今天绘声绘色描述的的元宇宙宏伟蓝图，一定会像1967苏联时代埋下的时光胶囊写的那样“50年之后，你们一定已经在银河系建功立业”一样可笑；</p>\n<p>而一年之后，我们也一定会为自己曾经追捧过如此虚无缥缈华而不实的概念而感到羞愧难当。</p>\n<p>因为，这个词实在是太TM扯了！</p>\n<p>最后，作为一个骨子里的科技乐观主义者，我其实多么希望——</p>\n<p>我说的这些槽点其实都不存在啊！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a52edc0554b7712861ef1f354fdb11b\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"wxzb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>它只是个漂亮泡泡——有理有据地给元宇宙泼一盆冷水</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n它只是个漂亮泡泡——有理有据地给元宇宙泼一盆冷水\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-16 15:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NjEzNjk1Mw==&mid=2247486155&idx=1&sn=2c899d33505eebbe32911bb4631cba6a&chksm=fbc8ea5dccbf634bb7cfa5a4a67aa1a5ede0b96b64b4b499bc1ed63362dbe72bd2ec388f96ce&scene=27#wechat_redirect><strong>卫夕指北</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：卫夕\n从来没有一个词像“元宇宙”一样如此虚无缥缈、如此镜花水月却受到如此热烈的追捧。\n元宇宙和之前的科技概念不同，以前，在科技圈的一个概念至少是明确而又具体的，比如——“区块链”、“5G”、“3D打印”......\n然而，元宇宙不是，它虚幻缥缈而错综复杂，一如“浑元形意拳”。\n元宇宙是一个筐，什么都能往里装。\n在不同版本中，我看到了元宇宙至少要集成以下技术——\n“VR、AR、区块链、5G、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NjEzNjk1Mw==&mid=2247486155&idx=1&sn=2c899d33505eebbe32911bb4631cba6a&chksm=fbc8ea5dccbf634bb7cfa5a4a67aa1a5ede0b96b64b4b499bc1ed63362dbe72bd2ec388f96ce&scene=27#wechat_redirect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fad5def2c92a2cabb7c77c223df9ba9","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzU1NjEzNjk1Mw==&mid=2247486155&idx=1&sn=2c899d33505eebbe32911bb4631cba6a&chksm=fbc8ea5dccbf634bb7cfa5a4a67aa1a5ede0b96b64b4b499bc1ed63362dbe72bd2ec388f96ce&scene=27#wechat_redirect","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2183005063","content_text":"作者：卫夕\n从来没有一个词像“元宇宙”一样如此虚无缥缈、如此镜花水月却受到如此热烈的追捧。\n元宇宙和之前的科技概念不同，以前，在科技圈的一个概念至少是明确而又具体的，比如——“区块链”、“5G”、“3D打印”......\n然而，元宇宙不是，它虚幻缥缈而错综复杂，一如“浑元形意拳”。\n元宇宙是一个筐，什么都能往里装。\n在不同版本中，我看到了元宇宙至少要集成以下技术——\n“VR、AR、区块链、5G、云计算、数字孪生、人工智能、NFT、边缘计算......甚至还有脑机接口”。\n\n是滴，今天的元宇宙早已不是一个科技词汇，而是一个科幻词汇。\n在Facebook宣布将公司名字修改成“Meta”后，这种对元宇宙的吹捧和炒作达到了顶峰，这种盛况比几年前吹捧“区块链”有过之而无不及。\n我实在看不下去了，必须给它泼一盆冷水。\n在我看来，元宇宙是一个被吹出来的漂亮泡泡。\n我不仅这样说，我还要证明它只是一个被吹出来的漂亮泡泡——\n一\n为什么元宇宙如此火？\n毫无疑问其中一个原因是离不开Facebook的推波助澜。\n这两年Facebook的确是内忧外患，面临着隐私、监管等一系列极其复杂的局面，扎克伯克需要通过一个新的故事来激发公司低落的士气，毕竟卖广告已经很不酷了。\n我们当然不能把小扎的蓝图完全归结于营销噱头，但他描述的丰满未来在现实面前却极其骨感。\n非常讽刺的是——\n就在小扎在Connect大会描述元宇宙美好蓝图演讲的同一天，Oculus 的顾问CTO约翰卡马克就在同一个会议上硬生生地拆了小扎的台，直接了当地和老板唱起了反调。\n在了解卡马克具体讲了哪些话之前，我们需要了解一下为什么他的话重要。\n因此，我们必须认识一下这位传奇大神——他可能是这个星球在技术层面最懂元宇宙的人，甚至没有之一，为什么这么说呢？\n我们来简单了解一下这位在游戏界神一样的男人：\n\n他年仅22岁就以一己之力开发了世界上第一款3D游戏——《德军总部》 ，之后又几乎单枪匹马带领仅仅13人的ID Software公司开发了《毁灭战士》和《雷神之锤》。\n而开发这些游戏的引擎就是业界3D游戏引擎的鼻祖，是他引领游戏进入3D时代，很多年英伟达都用《毁灭战士》的游戏表现来测试新一代显卡的性能。\n而大神最让业界称道的举动就是将这一引擎全部开源，很多玩家耳熟能详的热门游戏诸如《半条命》等都是用这个引擎开发的。\n2013年，大神卡马克加入了Oculus团队，任CTO，过去8年，他作为Oculus的技术领袖带领团队开发了多个VR头盔项目。\n可以说，在Oculus公司，没有人会比卡马克更懂元宇宙需要的技术。\n那么他是如何说的呢？\n以下是他演讲中的一些原话——\n1.“我认为Metaverse是“太空人架构师的产品”，“太空人架构师”只想从最高层面夸夸其谈，并不关心GPU、微观架构、网络、流媒体等具体执行细节。”\n2.“我的担忧是，我们可能会投入数年的时间和数千人，可最终得到的是一些对今天的人们实际使用设备和硬件的方式没有多大贡献的东西。”\n3.“人们很容易做一些有趣的概念型技术，但如果不能被大量的人使用很长时间，或许这些所谓的新技术并没有那么重要。”\n4.“《Horizon World》（Facebook旗下的一款VR社交产品）是一款产品，一个可以明确判断的产品，比如有多少人在用、用户在里面做什么、商业表现如何等，现在《Horizon》与我们希望看到的Metaverse还有很大的差距，比如我们现在仅仅只能做到14人实时聊天，甚至离50-60人的“走廊式聊天”都还很远。”\n5.“对于很多人来说，即便VR设备0元白送可能也没什么帮助，我们的数据显示，有不少Quest设备实际上已被用户束之高阁，他们是流失用户，但手机用户就不会，每个人都要用手机。”\n这些话翻译一下就是——\n“小扎你快别TM吹牛了，都被你吹到天上去了，咱们现阶段做的这玩儿到底怎么样你心里没点B数吗？\n少TM废话，咱们脚踏实地拿出硬核的表现数据才是真的！”\n没错，一线听得见炮声的技术大神卡马克认为——元宇宙，我们还没准备好！\n而更残酷的事实是——\n卡马克所在的Oculus是公认在消费级VR头显领域技术最为领先的公司，没有之一。\n二\n关于元宇宙的硬件，我们来进行一个简单的逻辑思考——\n从PC互联网到移动互联网的转变过程中，是因为手机足够便捷因而显著地提升了移动在线时长。\n即移动互联网繁荣的前提是足够的用户时长。\n而元宇宙要进一步提升在线时长为数不多的路径就是随时随地在线，而要做到随时随地在线，设备必须做到和正常的眼镜一样轻（至少不能比现在的日常眼镜重太多）。\n那么现在普通眼镜的重量是多少呢？\n答案是20-50克不等。\n那么现在最出色的VR眼镜Oculus Quest2是多重呢？\n答案是503克。\n而现在最出色的AR眼镜微软的HoloLens2是多重呢？\n答案是566克。\n\n我去年买的在吃灰的Oculus Quest2\n所以，这个巨大的差异就决定了元宇宙在硬件层面是一条极为漫长的道路。\n有人说，你之前说过，技术会指数级进步啊！\n注意：指数级进步发生的前提是信息世界而非原子世界：\n电池行业可并不存在摩尔定理，不然特斯拉早就是白菜价了；\n透镜领域也不存在跨越式发展，不然今天的手机早就把摄像头做平了。\n没错，突破物理的极限比突破算力的极限难度要高一个数量级。\n而更为困难的是，我们可远不止让设备变轻这一个目标，而是在重量、算力、视场角、分辩率、刷新率、续航等多个领域都需要同步大幅度提升，这个叠加难度是指数级的。\n所以甭扯那些没用的！\n先把现阶段头显的90赫兹变成到120赫兹，把视场角从100度增加到150度，把价格降到千元内，把重量降到200克，把分辨率提升到单眼4K，把续航从2小时提升到5小时，把用户时长从现在的几分钟提升到1小时，行不行？\n到底行不行？\n不行就甭TM吹牛逼了！\n三\n还有一个非常关键的问题：\n由于现在通往元宇宙的XR技术还在初级阶段，因此硬件需要多维度、大幅度、快速更新（注意这三个词）才能适应实际需求。\n这对硬件而言本身就是一个极难的挑战，而多维度、大幅度、快速更新对于软件开发者而言同样是一场灾难。\n我们思考一个问题——为什么手机能做到一年发布一个新版本？\n原因就是因为手机的硬件更新是单维度、小幅度更新，相应的应用软件在适配层简单，用户的硬件iPhone12到iPhone13，微信、微博这些应用可能只要花几天就适配完了。\n然而VR设备则不是这样的，它的每一次更新在算力、视场角、分辨率、刷新率、控制方式、输入输出方式等多个维度通常都会更新。\n一旦有新硬件，软件为了适应这种复杂的更新在某种意义上就必须推倒重来，无论如何没办法做到几天就适配完。\n我们看到过去6年，光Oculus旗下就先后发布了Oculus rift、Gear VR、Oculus Go、Oculus Quest四种硬件。\n他们都是VR头盔，但却从头到脚、里里外外完全不同，甚至应用商店都是分开的，于是给软件开发商折腾的够惨。\n可怜的软件开发者们，吭哧吭哧好不容易开发上线一款作品还没开始赚钱，就被告知——\n“我们又有新硬件了，快来开发吧，不然跟不上我们的速度噢！”\n这就是Oculus平台过去6年的现状。\n为什么今年Oculus开发者大会没有发布大家呼声很高的Oculus Quest Pro？\n就是因为它知道也开发者需要休养生息不能继续这样被折腾了。\n而讽刺的是，扎克伯格今年在大会上对没有推出新硬件的解释是——“我们认为Oculus Quest2已经足够优秀”\n呵呵，你能想象库克对苹果的粉丝说——\n“我们认为iPhone13已经足够优秀，因此明年不会有iPhone14了”吗？\n所以，VR硬件现阶段一个很难调和的矛盾就是急需升级的硬件和难以快速迭代的软件之间的矛盾。\n四\n咱们继续，我最想吐槽的点就是区块链在元宇宙里的应用了。\n媒体们把区块链作为元宇宙的底层技术大吹特吹，认为它必须成为元宇宙经济系统的基石。\n然而，很遗憾，这在逻辑上是站不住脚的。\n为什么这么说呢？\n我们从底层来逐一论证，请将以下六个表述划一个重点——\n第一、区块链不可篡改、去中心化解决的是信任问题、公正问题，它本身不涉及生产力，只涉及生产关系；\n第二、区块链解决问题的方式在结果上是完美的，但在过程上是有成本的，比如冗余、效率和能耗；\n第三、现实中人类社会的信任问题、公正问题已经有现成的解决方案；\n第四、从目前看区块链解决方案在大部分情况下并没有比现实中已有解决方案表现的更优越；\n第五、区块链并没有广泛应用的原因在于技术问题、效率问题、共识问题、协作问题；\n第六、区块链在当今世界面临的这些应用问题在元宇宙里目前没有理由会自然消失，即这些问题依然会存在；\n没错，我们就问一个简单的问题——\n为什么微信公众号不用NFT而是用古典的原创标识来解决文章的版权问题呢？\n为什么支付宝不用智能合约来而是用古典的方式来解决确认收货再付款的问题呢？\n因为没必要嘛！\n那为什么到了元宇宙里，区块链就是必不可少的经济运行的基石技术呢？\n这TM说不通嘛！\n事实上，信任问题、公正问题并非是人类面临的唯一问题，甚至也不是最大问题，它只是人类面临的所有问题的一个小的子集。\n我们就问这些元宇宙砖家，被你们吹捧上天的元宇宙第一股——Roblox，它的所有游戏玩法都基于NFT技术来保护原创吗？它的经济系统是使用基于区块链的加密货币吗？\n根本不是嘛！\n所以，别TM嘴硬！\n今天距2008年11月中本聪发布《Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System》论文已经13年了。\n没错，区块链是一项伟大的发明，在一些领域的确它有它的用武之地。\n但它绝不是万能的，也并不像很多人说的那样——“区块链的优势在于它不存在看得见的手”。\n事实上，我们长久历史已经证明：\n人类确实需要看得见的手，人类只是不需要闲不住的手而已。\n五\n无论哪一个元宇宙砖家都一致地宣称称未来元宇宙不可能一家独大，而是多家共存。\n好，基于这一个前提我们稍微做一下逻辑推演——\n多家共存是不是意味着多个元宇宙？\nMeta有Meta的元宇宙、微软有微软的元宇宙、腾讯有以社交为核心的元宇宙、阿里有以商业为核心的元宇宙........\n每一个元宇宙必然有它自己独特的规则，那这时候请问各位砖家——去中性化到底如何实现？我怎么样才能无缝地从这个元宇宙切换到另一个元宇宙。\n这时候砖家又会跳出来说——各大元宇宙平台之间会有一套统一的标准接口和协议互联互通。\n你做梦吧，我就问你——\n今天各大平台各自为战构建围墙花园的问题即便在行政手段强制的情况下都没办法解决。\n凭什么到元宇宙时代互联互通就能自动实现了呢？\n请正面回答这个问题。\n“不管了，先TM吹一番再说！”\n还有，3D沉浸式体验的重要性其实也被砖家们在某种意义上夸大了。\n事实上，人类文明的很多成果其实都是2D的，人类的社交活动在很多时候也并非一定需要3D。\n举一个例子，我们最重要的社交APP微信，它其实有四种沟通媒介——文字、语音、图片、视频。\n然而我们使用最多的还是文字，没错，很多时候人类其实并不需要在媒介上进行升维。\n到了元宇宙里，你极大可能还是要带着头盔继续写PPT。\n不要笑，微软的元宇宙宣传里就是这么展示的。\n六\n然后咱们来说一说元宇宙第一股Roblox，很多人把Roblox的意义无限放大。\n我是反对这种论调的，相对于游戏公司，它的模式当然是独特而成功的。\n但我们不应该拔高这种成功，更不必将它奉为未来虚拟世界的样版，因为换一个角度理解Roblox结论就会不一样。\nRoblox的本质其实是一个像素游戏的AppStore，它其实是一个发行平台，只是开发游戏的语言用的是它像素风的编辑器而已。\n从这个意义上理解，我们就会发现Roblox并没有新鲜的东西。\n\n是滴，它是去中心化的、UGC的，游戏内容并不由官方设计，而是交给开发者。\n朋友们，App Store、微信小游戏甚至TapTap做的也是同样的事啊，无非是自己搭台别人唱戏嘛！\nRoblox无非是以一个游戏的面具做了一个游戏操作系统的事，它的确是一种创新的游戏类型，它成功但并不颠覆，更不意味着它会是未来的标准。\n事实上，UGC这个概念也被过分夸大了。\n现代世界能够正常运转的本质是PGC，背后的核心原因是因为PGC需要人类大规模的合作。\n《人类简史》的作者尤瓦尔赫拉利说——\n“我们的祖先区别于大猩猩的一个关键就在于人类能组织大规模复杂的合作。”\n七\n在有理有据的吐槽之后，接下来分享一段我曾经的伤心往事——\n2015年，VR的风已经从大洋彼岸的刮到了中国科技界。\n作为一名对前沿科技无限向往的青年，我在媒体的疯狂报道中对VR非常着迷，隐隐地感觉它将改变这个世界的一切，它一定是未来科技的方向。\n当年，高盛出了一份报告《虚拟现实：走向下一个计算平台》，表达了对VR坚定的看好。\n当年，易凯资本的王冉热情洋溢地写了一篇《一个“奥酷拉思”的未来 --为什么我相信VR会改变娱乐业以及这个世界》的长文。\n在这篇长文中王冉系统地描述了VR无限美好的未来。\n\n当年我激动的朋友圈\nOculus Rift上市，HTC宣布全面转型VR，谷歌宣布Daydream VR操作系统......彼时的科技圈VR的热度绝不亚于今天对于元宇宙的追捧。\n没错，澎湃的大潮在呼唤，我当时的想法只有一个——不能等了，我必须要拥抱VR。\n然而，2016年我还是一名广告产品经理，而很显然当时VR还没发展到需要广告变现的阶段，我的业务技能暂时没有用武之地。\n我非常焦虑，感觉自己要错过一个时代。\n不行，暂时的挫折浇灭不了热血青年拥抱科技大潮的决心。\n办法总比困难多，冥思苦想之后我决定发挥我的特长，我要写一本书，我要为虚拟现实布道，我让更多人认识VR的力量。\n于是，我切实行动起来了——采访、查阅、体验、写作......经过长达八个月的挑灯夜战、反复打磨再打磨。\n2016年11月，《VR革命：虚拟现实将如何改变我们的生活》一书出版了。\n\n书中我和腾飞非常详细地从多个角度介绍了VR这项伟大的技术以及它为什么即将改变世界（PS：书稿中关于VR与色情的章节在审查时无情地弊掉了，略遗憾）\n彼时的我，感觉自己随着科技的节拍在舞动，而即将到来的将是一个无比辉煌的VR时代。\n后来，后来的事情大家都知道了。\n.......\n我至今不好意思和朋友们提起我曾经写过这样一本书。\n不说了，脸疼。\n然而，我并不后悔，这段经历让我学会如何更加理性、冷静地看待科技行业的客观发展路径。\n我依然相信VR的未来，只是不再相信今天那些元宇宙砖家吹破天际的炒作。\n八\n说到底，元宇宙之所以被热炒，归根结底还是今天的科技圈走到了移动互联网的末端，元宇宙是科技圈前途焦虑的一次集体释放。\n它让内卷到只能去和菜贩抢生意的迷茫巨头们终于找到一个可以无限畅想的遥远方向。\n然而，我们一定要有清醒的认识，科技的发展有它客观的路径和速度，每一个虚无缥缈的未来都不会自动到来。\n事实上，有一些在悄然布局的中国公司其实都没有对外大肆宣传自己的元宇宙蓝图，因为他们深刻地理解：\n一张蓝图绘到底是靠不住的，这个市场终究要靠产品说话。\n腾讯引入了罗布乐思，投资了Epic，收购了多家相关公司；\n还有字节，收购了国内领先的VR制造商Pico、投资代码乾坤推出类Roblex的《重启世界》、投资数字孪生云服务公司众趣科技........\n但这两家无一例外从不大宣扬自己元宇宙的宏大叙事，因为他们清楚的知道，无论如何元宇宙在今天还是一个科幻概念。\n方向隐约是对滴，但路径大概率是错的。\n面对一个概念期的模糊方向，唯一能做的是——摸着石头过河过河，而不是直接去造一座宏伟的大桥。\n九\n今天吹捧元宇宙的人，大部分其实是像我当年一样年幼无知的“新科技茫然症”人群，不愿承认自己跟不上时代，生怕自己错过任何一个新风口。\n然而还有一部分纯粹就是坏，对于这帮坏人而言，任何一个新概念都是他们合法割韭菜的工具，炒作手段五花八门、眼花缭乱。\n我们以为他们看到了人类的未来与明天、看到了科技的星辰大海。\n事实上，他们看到的是一茬茬绿油油的待割韭菜。\n你以为是馅饼，其实是陷阱。\n这件事有意思的地方在于，很多人韭菜们其实心知肚明，但依然忍不住诱惑进场。\n毕竟在泡沫破裂之前，他们认为自己是割到了其他人的韭菜。\n每一个人都认为自己能在泡沫膨胀到最高点之前全身而退，美其名曰——与泡沫共舞。\n每当想到这里，我会郑重地提醒想去割韭菜的韭菜们，请认真回忆当年的虚拟现实第一股——暴风科技。\n韭菜们，镰刀已经架在脖子上了，快跑啊！\n十\n好，说到这里，元宇宙的砖家们一定会跳出来，指着我的鼻子——\n“你根本不懂元宇宙！”\n是滴，我的确不懂元宇宙，但我懂逻辑。\n作为一个理性的行业从业者，这时候我们唯一需要做的就是——\n赶紧洗洗睡，该干嘛干嘛去，默默做好自己手中的事，不要认为你会错过什么，未来一定会来，但绝不会提前到来。\n我赌五毛钱——\n十年之后，我们今天绘声绘色描述的的元宇宙宏伟蓝图，一定会像1967苏联时代埋下的时光胶囊写的那样“50年之后，你们一定已经在银河系建功立业”一样可笑；\n而一年之后，我们也一定会为自己曾经追捧过如此虚无缥缈华而不实的概念而感到羞愧难当。\n因为，这个词实在是太TM扯了！\n最后，作为一个骨子里的科技乐观主义者，我其实多么希望——\n我说的这些槽点其实都不存在啊！","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842976834,"gmtCreate":1636128707082,"gmtModify":1636128707082,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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class=\"h-time\">2022-04-04 18:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">推特</a>美股盘前交易量上升，涨幅扩大至21%；监管文件显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>CEO马斯克持有推特9.2%的被动股权。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ec3d05c88f3a96100930d043ca0d447\" tg-width=\"1889\" tg-height=\"842\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eebc2b7878fdad8f8760a92aeb154dd5\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"818\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f77d3f9209ef2d10ff4f134857e939d","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","TWTR":"Twitter","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139602879","content_text":"4月4日，推特美股盘前交易量上升，涨幅扩大至21%；监管文件显示，特斯拉CEO马斯克持有推特9.2%的被动股权。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619308934,"gmtCreate":1648951691664,"gmtModify":1648953519654,"author":{"id":"3575403560442166","authorId":"3575403560442166","name":"无人扶我青云志炒股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/042988bea27a4d43ef6b60b91d71a868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575403560442166","authorIdStr":"3575403560442166"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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