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偶尔怀旧

偶尔怀旧

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IP属地：湖北

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2023-02-20

$盈富基金(02800)$ 来回

2022-12-12

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@不见233:鱼尾时间——政策的修修补补

2022-12-12

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@3047鐵礦石ETF:大家的资源股如何—油、气、金、铁重点新闻摘要（12月05日）

2022-12-12

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎AV:12月7日，进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布，再次放宽出行层面的管控要求，#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后，携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%，其中，春节前夕（腊月二十五-除夕）的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。$携程网(TCOM)$ $携程集团—S(09961)$ $美团-W(03690)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$

2022-12-12

$贵州茅台(600519)$ 酒要起来了

2022-11-27

$盈富基金(02800)$ 基金

2022-11-22

好

@美股解毒师:美联储官员为何频繁“鹰”派发声？

2022-11-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@价值投资为王:巴菲特抄底台积电，半导体牛市即将袭来！

2022-11-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@美股解毒师:腾讯的Q3：超预期的降本增效，以及派发美团的影响

2022-11-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@三合智能:海银受邀德意志银行全球投资人大会寻觅全球投资策略或机遇

2022-11-19

$拼多多(PDD)$ 涨上去了

2022-11-14

$海底捞(06862)$ 吃起来

2022-11-11

$贵州茅台(600519)$ 开始go go go

2022-11-09

$香港交易所(00388)$ 港交所啊

2022-11-08

$小米集团-W(01810)$快涨

2022-10-30

$小米集团-W(01810)$不不要跌了，可以涨了

2022-10-25

$贵州茅台(600519)$白酒跌出新价格了

2022-09-21

$贵州茅台(600519)$

2022-09-19

$海底捞(06862)$

2022-09-11

$中芯国际(00981)$

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02800\">$盈富基金(02800)$ &nbsp;</a>来回","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02800\">$盈富基金(02800)$ &nbsp;</a>来回","text":"$盈富基金(02800)$ 来回","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d777d75b01d09715396dd8284fed4f9","width":"1080","height":"1802"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624098227","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629711309,"gmtCreate":1670848015701,"gmtModify":1670848017300,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574132046912414","authorIdStr":"3574132046912414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629711309","repostId":"629374642","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629374642,"gmtCreate":1670311807587,"gmtModify":1670312861404,"author":{"id":"3536726801818865","authorId":"3536726801818865","name":"不见233","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d7f4ce18e7e23ee069600167f858f4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536726801818865","authorIdStr":"3536726801818865"},"themes":[],"title":"鱼尾时间——政策的修修补补","htmlText":"本来想着可以不更国内宏观内容了，但从全球表现来看，风险偏好的拐点可能已经出现了···再度进入鱼尾时间，央妈缝缝补补又过年的日子。 顺带帮大家把前几期零碎的内容也补成一张逻辑的网。 PS知识的孤岛如何防止被信息的洪流&amp;时间的潮水冲走，让它们”聚合“形成丰富的地形，这就是宏观的魅力。 类似的判断标准，大家看在22.6.29《鱼尾行情——丰筋多刺又鲜美？》： 最后侃几句实用型干货，半年报是质检场，要是对票子没信心，赌场得欢乐时光很快会结束了··· 1国债收益率空间不会很快地被打开，但水滴石穿，慢慢磨，结构型下行去匹配宏观投资投资回报率，但制衡得是龙鹰利差环境···2.85%是香得，不亏钱亏时间，这点和HSI类似··· 2新能源+消费+半导体，一定有些是碰瓷，也一定有些是质检出好东西得，未来大幅波动时可以慢慢找机会。或许消费也有？大宗也有？但不太确定，都是可能成为国民天花板的存在？笔者最近在瞄榨菜茅···但先侃半年报吧 3黄金的结构，在龙配黄金其实一直都算个不太亏钱的逻辑（闲来无事买一买的类别），但从FICC框架去看，利率结构尤其是鲍威尔的“勇气”，是否能让FED对通胀发动一场“核战争”还是“核威慑”一直都是梦魇···这点和债券结构同步，尤其是近大半年来，实际利率由负转正，再转负。 （部分节选） 大家可以去参考整个宏观交易的过程，对比2022.6.29之后的表现··· 笔者对当下诸多宏观因子是有预期差的，很大程度上市场是过于乐观的，显然这也是众多央妈们乐于补贴“乐观者预期”，因为近三十年来都是如此···经济不景气就叫妈···然后市场就跟在“妈”前后。 部分内容大家可以去看22.12.2《世界史的二十世纪结束了3/4》 1全球复苏-尤其是龙的复苏态势··· 2过于乐观地看待FED-FOMC的利率拐点 3···（龙鹰之间的不能公开说秘密） 笔者原预期是23Q1-Q2的数据证伪，","listText":"本来想着可以不更国内宏观内容了，但从全球表现来看，风险偏好的拐点可能已经出现了···再度进入鱼尾时间，央妈缝缝补补又过年的日子。 顺带帮大家把前几期零碎的内容也补成一张逻辑的网。 PS知识的孤岛如何防止被信息的洪流&amp;时间的潮水冲走，让它们”聚合“形成丰富的地形，这就是宏观的魅力。 类似的判断标准，大家看在22.6.29《鱼尾行情——丰筋多刺又鲜美？》： 最后侃几句实用型干货，半年报是质检场，要是对票子没信心，赌场得欢乐时光很快会结束了··· 1国债收益率空间不会很快地被打开，但水滴石穿，慢慢磨，结构型下行去匹配宏观投资投资回报率，但制衡得是龙鹰利差环境···2.85%是香得，不亏钱亏时间，这点和HSI类似··· 2新能源+消费+半导体，一定有些是碰瓷，也一定有些是质检出好东西得，未来大幅波动时可以慢慢找机会。或许消费也有？大宗也有？但不太确定，都是可能成为国民天花板的存在？笔者最近在瞄榨菜茅···但先侃半年报吧 3黄金的结构，在龙配黄金其实一直都算个不太亏钱的逻辑（闲来无事买一买的类别），但从FICC框架去看，利率结构尤其是鲍威尔的“勇气”，是否能让FED对通胀发动一场“核战争”还是“核威慑”一直都是梦魇···这点和债券结构同步，尤其是近大半年来，实际利率由负转正，再转负。 （部分节选） 大家可以去参考整个宏观交易的过程，对比2022.6.29之后的表现··· 笔者对当下诸多宏观因子是有预期差的，很大程度上市场是过于乐观的，显然这也是众多央妈们乐于补贴“乐观者预期”，因为近三十年来都是如此···经济不景气就叫妈···然后市场就跟在“妈”前后。 部分内容大家可以去看22.12.2《世界史的二十世纪结束了3/4》 1全球复苏-尤其是龙的复苏态势··· 2过于乐观地看待FED-FOMC的利率拐点 3···（龙鹰之间的不能公开说秘密） 笔者原预期是23Q1-Q2的数据证伪，","text":"本来想着可以不更国内宏观内容了，但从全球表现来看，风险偏好的拐点可能已经出现了···再度进入鱼尾时间，央妈缝缝补补又过年的日子。 顺带帮大家把前几期零碎的内容也补成一张逻辑的网。 PS知识的孤岛如何防止被信息的洪流&时间的潮水冲走，让它们”聚合“形成丰富的地形，这就是宏观的魅力。 类似的判断标准，大家看在22.6.29《鱼尾行情——丰筋多刺又鲜美？》： 最后侃几句实用型干货，半年报是质检场，要是对票子没信心，赌场得欢乐时光很快会结束了··· 1国债收益率空间不会很快地被打开，但水滴石穿，慢慢磨，结构型下行去匹配宏观投资投资回报率，但制衡得是龙鹰利差环境···2.85%是香得，不亏钱亏时间，这点和HSI类似··· 2新能源+消费+半导体，一定有些是碰瓷，也一定有些是质检出好东西得，未来大幅波动时可以慢慢找机会。或许消费也有？大宗也有？但不太确定，都是可能成为国民天花板的存在？笔者最近在瞄榨菜茅···但先侃半年报吧 3黄金的结构，在龙配黄金其实一直都算个不太亏钱的逻辑（闲来无事买一买的类别），但从FICC框架去看，利率结构尤其是鲍威尔的“勇气”，是否能让FED对通胀发动一场“核战争”还是“核威慑”一直都是梦魇···这点和债券结构同步，尤其是近大半年来，实际利率由负转正，再转负。 （部分节选） 大家可以去参考整个宏观交易的过程，对比2022.6.29之后的表现··· 笔者对当下诸多宏观因子是有预期差的，很大程度上市场是过于乐观的，显然这也是众多央妈们乐于补贴“乐观者预期”，因为近三十年来都是如此···经济不景气就叫妈···然后市场就跟在“妈”前后。 部分内容大家可以去看22.12.2《世界史的二十世纪结束了3/4》 1全球复苏-尤其是龙的复苏态势··· 2过于乐观地看待FED-FOMC的利率拐点 3···（龙鹰之间的不能公开说秘密） 笔者原预期是23Q1-Q2的数据证伪，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7c4eeb301d4cfd928048d2267576f13"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/751a47beb7d9bd51287adccc83457fa3"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563f5f625e19378632dddf62623d6b44"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629374642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2064,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629711983,"gmtCreate":1670848009142,"gmtModify":1670848010757,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574132046912414","authorIdStr":"3574132046912414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629711983","repostId":"629989540","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629989540,"gmtCreate":1670212404881,"gmtModify":1670212557207,"author":{"id":"3554938063633134","authorId":"3554938063633134","name":"3047鐵礦石ETF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f15d1a5f1b2d0ea723d4abc43d3a22","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554938063633134","authorIdStr":"3554938063633134"},"themes":[],"title":"大家的资源股如何—油、气、金、铁重点新闻摘要（12月05日）","htmlText":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03047\">$F山证铁矿石(03047)$</a>&nbsp; 对疫情政策转变的预期不断上升，商品市场全面上涨。更广泛的市场情绪对美联储可能放缓加息步伐的信号做出积极反应，助长了涨势。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>&nbsp; 原油上周大幅上涨，因为放松 COVID-19限制增加了需求强劲的希望。石油需求受到遏制病毒的严格措施的影响，中国国家石油公司估计 2022年需求将下降 2%。周五，上海放宽了 COVID-19测试规则，加入北京、深圳、广州和其他城市的行列在最近的抗议活动后重新开放。大多数地方不需要 PCR结果就可以使用公共交通工具或共用空间。然而，随著本周欧洲对俄罗斯石油实施制裁，市场仍处于紧张状态。欧盟还同意对其石油设定 60美元/桶的价格上限，为与七国集团达成更广泛的协议铺平了道路。该价格仍高于俄罗斯乌拉尔原油目前的交易价格。该协议包括一个允许每两个月修订一次的机制，以及一项确保上限的任何重置应使其至少比平均市场利率低 5%的条款。俄罗斯表示不会接受该计划，并准备在任何情况下采取变通办法。副总理亚历山大·诺瓦**告称，他的国家可能会“减产”作为回应。周日，欧佩克还同意保持产量不变，实施上次会议上同意的 2mb/d减产。该决定反映了未来几个月供需的不可预测性。该小组计划在 2月之前举行会议。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>&nbsp; 由于天气下降提振供暖需求，欧洲","listText":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03047\">$F山证铁矿石(03047)$</a>&nbsp; 对疫情政策转变的预期不断上升，商品市场全面上涨。更广泛的市场情绪对美联储可能放缓加息步伐的信号做出积极反应，助长了涨势。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$</a>&nbsp; 原油上周大幅上涨，因为放松 COVID-19限制增加了需求强劲的希望。石油需求受到遏制病毒的严格措施的影响，中国国家石油公司估计 2022年需求将下降 2%。周五，上海放宽了 COVID-19测试规则，加入北京、深圳、广州和其他城市的行列在最近的抗议活动后重新开放。大多数地方不需要 PCR结果就可以使用公共交通工具或共用空间。然而，随著本周欧洲对俄罗斯石油实施制裁，市场仍处于紧张状态。欧盟还同意对其石油设定 60美元/桶的价格上限，为与七国集团达成更广泛的协议铺平了道路。该价格仍高于俄罗斯乌拉尔原油目前的交易价格。该协议包括一个允许每两个月修订一次的机制，以及一项确保上限的任何重置应使其至少比平均市场利率低 5%的条款。俄罗斯表示不会接受该计划，并准备在任何情况下采取变通办法。副总理亚历山大·诺瓦**告称，他的国家可能会“减产”作为回应。周日，欧佩克还同意保持产量不变，实施上次会议上同意的 2mb/d减产。该决定反映了未来几个月供需的不可预测性。该小组计划在 2月之前举行会议。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>&nbsp; 由于天气下降提振供暖需求，欧洲","text":"看很多朋友喜欢资源股，但没有专注大宗商品新闻的总结，连载大宗商品的新闻，让大家投资资源股时更加得心应手。 $F山证铁矿石(03047)$ 对疫情政策转变的预期不断上升，商品市场全面上涨。更广泛的市场情绪对美联储可能放缓加息步伐的信号做出积极反应，助长了涨势。 $恒生指数(HSI)$ 原油上周大幅上涨，因为放松 COVID-19限制增加了需求强劲的希望。石油需求受到遏制病毒的严格措施的影响，中国国家石油公司估计 2022年需求将下降 2%。周五，上海放宽了 COVID-19测试规则，加入北京、深圳、广州和其他城市的行列在最近的抗议活动后重新开放。大多数地方不需要 PCR结果就可以使用公共交通工具或共用空间。然而，随著本周欧洲对俄罗斯石油实施制裁，市场仍处于紧张状态。欧盟还同意对其石油设定 60美元/桶的价格上限，为与七国集团达成更广泛的协议铺平了道路。该价格仍高于俄罗斯乌拉尔原油目前的交易价格。该协议包括一个允许每两个月修订一次的机制，以及一项确保上限的任何重置应使其至少比平均市场利率低 5%的条款。俄罗斯表示不会接受该计划，并准备在任何情况下采取变通办法。副总理亚历山大·诺瓦**告称，他的国家可能会“减产”作为回应。周日，欧佩克还同意保持产量不变，实施上次会议上同意的 2mb/d减产。该决定反映了未来几个月供需的不可预测性。该小组计划在 2月之前举行会议。 $西方石油(OXY)$ 由于天气下降提振供暖需求，欧洲","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd2c46e06a2ebed782421fb7dac9206f","width":"554","height":"610"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629989540","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629711085,"gmtCreate":1670848003147,"gmtModify":1670848005432,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574132046912414","authorIdStr":"3574132046912414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629711085","repostId":"629836510","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629836510,"gmtCreate":1670399383530,"gmtModify":1670399402681,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514329116425907","authorIdStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"title":"春节前夕机票搜索量暴涨至三年巅峰","htmlText":"\n \n \n  12月7日，进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布，再次放宽出行层面的管控要求，#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后，携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%，其中，春节前夕（腊月二十五-除夕）的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09961\">$携程集团—S(09961)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>\n \n","listText":"12月7日，进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布，再次放宽出行层面的管控要求，#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后，携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%，其中，春节前夕（腊月二十五-除夕）的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">$携程网(TCOM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09961\">$携程集团—S(09961)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","text":"12月7日，进一步优化防疫新十条通知发布，再次放宽出行层面的管控要求，#不再对跨地区流动人员查验健康码#。消息发布后，携程平台上的机票瞬时搜索量猛增160%，其中，春节前夕（腊月二十五-除夕）的机票搜索量暴涨至三年以来最高点。$携程网(TCOM)$ $携程集团—S(09961)$ $美团-W(03690)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629836510","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"82d83686dc374796bd3e251455c2110c","tweetId":"629836510","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/e032cee0243791576922868327/BeFvwO3hNjgA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef79db0cd7025bb5589ba1f8b5aed4e6"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629713792,"gmtCreate":1670847975616,"gmtModify":1670847977673,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574132046912414","authorIdStr":"3574132046912414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">$贵州茅台(600519)$ &nbsp;</a>酒要起来了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">$贵州茅台(600519)$ &nbsp;</a>酒要起来了","text":"$贵州茅台(600519)$ 酒要起来了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5075a21cf4c6aabb874360918191b313","width":"1080","height":"1367"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629713792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1646,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":620188235,"gmtCreate":1669545872827,"gmtModify":1669545875334,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574132046912414","authorIdStr":"3574132046912414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02800\">$盈富基金(02800)$ &nbsp;</a>基金","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02800\">$盈富基金(02800)$ &nbsp;</a>基金","text":"$盈富基金(02800)$ 基金","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9444e1374da67e1409097e24bf3d39fd","width":"1080","height":"1780"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620188235","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667704769,"gmtCreate":1669117053752,"gmtModify":1669117055420,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574132046912414","authorIdStr":"3574132046912414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667704769","repostId":"667566461","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667566461,"gmtCreate":1669018601054,"gmtModify":1669018654317,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440721572920950","authorIdStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"美联储官员为何频繁“鹰”派发声？","htmlText":"中期选举截止至11月20日，美国中期选举的虽然没有完全计票结束，但是结果已经确定：共和党以219:212时隔四年重新掌控众议院（高于218票），而民主党则继续锁定参议院（50个席位、加上副总统1票）。分裂国会的局面正式形成。虽然赢下众议院，但共和党没有出现“红色浪潮”（Red Wave），比市场预期更弱一些，原因可能有很多种：包括此前民调的误差、邮寄选票的影响。但结果已经如此，即在国会难以形成绝对主导。而民主党方面，很明显由于此前的疫情影响，加上选举前的高通胀压力，不仅丢掉众议院，而且拜登总统持续支持率较低。这样的结局，在经济上会有什么直接后果呢？显然，共和党在财政政策更有话语权（美国宪法规定，所有税收相关法案、拨款法案或授权开支联邦资金均应由众议院提议，而参议院无权提案）。因此美国国债的债务上限的风险也在加大，政府停摆的可能性再次增大。至当前，美国公共债务规模达到了31.3万亿美元，逼近31.4万亿美元法定债务上限。可能受影响的政府开支案包括： 2021年3月的1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案 2021年11月的5500 亿美元基建法案 还未通过的1.75万亿美元“重建美好未来法案”（Build Back Better） 2022 年8月通过的芯片与科学法案（Chips and Science Act） 通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act of 2022） 暂时被阻止的生贷款削减计划（Student Debt Relief Plan）。 受影响的行业从制造业、金融科技，到非必须消费品行业。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIA\">$道琼斯ETF(DIA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">$卡特彼勒(CAT)$</a>","listText":"中期选举截止至11月20日，美国中期选举的虽然没有完全计票结束，但是结果已经确定：共和党以219:212时隔四年重新掌控众议院（高于218票），而民主党则继续锁定参议院（50个席位、加上副总统1票）。分裂国会的局面正式形成。虽然赢下众议院，但共和党没有出现“红色浪潮”（Red Wave），比市场预期更弱一些，原因可能有很多种：包括此前民调的误差、邮寄选票的影响。但结果已经如此，即在国会难以形成绝对主导。而民主党方面，很明显由于此前的疫情影响，加上选举前的高通胀压力，不仅丢掉众议院，而且拜登总统持续支持率较低。这样的结局，在经济上会有什么直接后果呢？显然，共和党在财政政策更有话语权（美国宪法规定，所有税收相关法案、拨款法案或授权开支联邦资金均应由众议院提议，而参议院无权提案）。因此美国国债的债务上限的风险也在加大，政府停摆的可能性再次增大。至当前，美国公共债务规模达到了31.3万亿美元，逼近31.4万亿美元法定债务上限。可能受影响的政府开支案包括： 2021年3月的1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案 2021年11月的5500 亿美元基建法案 还未通过的1.75万亿美元“重建美好未来法案”（Build Back Better） 2022 年8月通过的芯片与科学法案（Chips and Science Act） 通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act of 2022） 暂时被阻止的生贷款削减计划（Student Debt Relief Plan）。 受影响的行业从制造业、金融科技，到非必须消费品行业。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIA\">$道琼斯ETF(DIA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAT\">$卡特彼勒(CAT)$</a>","text":"中期选举截止至11月20日，美国中期选举的虽然没有完全计票结束，但是结果已经确定：共和党以219:212时隔四年重新掌控众议院（高于218票），而民主党则继续锁定参议院（50个席位、加上副总统1票）。分裂国会的局面正式形成。虽然赢下众议院，但共和党没有出现“红色浪潮”（Red Wave），比市场预期更弱一些，原因可能有很多种：包括此前民调的误差、邮寄选票的影响。但结果已经如此，即在国会难以形成绝对主导。而民主党方面，很明显由于此前的疫情影响，加上选举前的高通胀压力，不仅丢掉众议院，而且拜登总统持续支持率较低。这样的结局，在经济上会有什么直接后果呢？显然，共和党在财政政策更有话语权（美国宪法规定，所有税收相关法案、拨款法案或授权开支联邦资金均应由众议院提议，而参议院无权提案）。因此美国国债的债务上限的风险也在加大，政府停摆的可能性再次增大。至当前，美国公共债务规模达到了31.3万亿美元，逼近31.4万亿美元法定债务上限。可能受影响的政府开支案包括： 2021年3月的1.9万亿美元财政刺激法案 2021年11月的5500 亿美元基建法案 还未通过的1.75万亿美元“重建美好未来法案”（Build Back Better） 2022 年8月通过的芯片与科学法案（Chips and Science Act） 通胀削减法案（Inflation Reduction Act of 2022） 暂时被阻止的生贷款削减计划（Student Debt Relief Plan）。 受影响的行业从制造业、金融科技，到非必须消费品行业。$道琼斯ETF(DIA)$ $卡特彼勒(CAT)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21f087ae85c3fd555fc2fc3131923e9e","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53a001a7b79d68206f1e7166e2831955","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80dd824b5cc6acce59aa5a99c7240fd3","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667566461","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667704271,"gmtCreate":1669117028394,"gmtModify":1669117030012,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574132046912414","authorIdStr":"3574132046912414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667704271","repostId":"667902588","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667902588,"gmtCreate":1668485124945,"gmtModify":1668486045367,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"巴菲特抄底台积电，半导体牛市即将袭来！","htmlText":"昨日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦发布13F文件，数据显示，三季度伯克希尔大手笔抄底台积电6006万股，市值41亿美元，位列第10大持仓股： 这条消息非常劲爆，值得耐心寻味。 首先，台积电是全球顶级芯片代工巨头，典型的半导体科技股，而众所周知，巴菲特对科技股向来谨慎； 其次，巴菲特一出手，就把台积电买成了第10大重仓股，足见看好程度； 最后，台积电总部在台湾，此前屡遭市场质疑地缘政治风险，谁能想到，最为“保守”的股神竟然无惧风险，重仓持有！ 虽然巴菲特抄底台积电令市场颇为意外，但实际上，台积电的优秀很难让股神不动心！ 首先，台积电所在的行业是半导体，众所周知，半导体是当下经济的基石，无论是手机，还是汽车，抑或是未来的万物互联，都需要半导体，而且随着智能化的提升，对半导体的需求量成倍增加。 根据Infineon和Strategy Analytics的数据，传统燃油车功率半导体价值量为88美元/辆，纯电动车功率半导体价值量为459美元/辆，增幅高达421.6%。 而半导体产业链中，最困难的要属制造了。目前，最先进的5纳米工艺只有台积电和三星可以量产，后者在良率上一直不敌台积电。而2022年底，台积电将量产3纳米工艺。放眼全球，除了三星勉强能够为之一战之外，台积电打遍全球无敌手！ 代工厂的护城河主要由2部分构成，一是工艺水平，这需要科研人员不断研发，台积电2022年前三季度研发费用高达40.5亿美元，折合人民币高达286亿，如果后来者想要追赶，仅仅每年的研发投入就足以吓退众人；第二是半导体制造重资产属性，投建一座5纳米的晶圆代工厂，投资额高达100亿美元以上。随着3纳米时代来临，建厂房的费用是一笔巨资，单凭一家公司，是无法完成此壮举，只能靠举国之力！ 垄断、不可替代不正是巴菲特梦寐以求的标的吗？ 再来聊聊为什么巴菲特选择在今年三季度抄底，而且是下重注？ 首先，台积电在工艺制程上并非","listText":"昨日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦发布13F文件，数据显示，三季度伯克希尔大手笔抄底台积电6006万股，市值41亿美元，位列第10大持仓股： 这条消息非常劲爆，值得耐心寻味。 首先，台积电是全球顶级芯片代工巨头，典型的半导体科技股，而众所周知，巴菲特对科技股向来谨慎； 其次，巴菲特一出手，就把台积电买成了第10大重仓股，足见看好程度； 最后，台积电总部在台湾，此前屡遭市场质疑地缘政治风险，谁能想到，最为“保守”的股神竟然无惧风险，重仓持有！ 虽然巴菲特抄底台积电令市场颇为意外，但实际上，台积电的优秀很难让股神不动心！ 首先，台积电所在的行业是半导体，众所周知，半导体是当下经济的基石，无论是手机，还是汽车，抑或是未来的万物互联，都需要半导体，而且随着智能化的提升，对半导体的需求量成倍增加。 根据Infineon和Strategy Analytics的数据，传统燃油车功率半导体价值量为88美元/辆，纯电动车功率半导体价值量为459美元/辆，增幅高达421.6%。 而半导体产业链中，最困难的要属制造了。目前，最先进的5纳米工艺只有台积电和三星可以量产，后者在良率上一直不敌台积电。而2022年底，台积电将量产3纳米工艺。放眼全球，除了三星勉强能够为之一战之外，台积电打遍全球无敌手！ 代工厂的护城河主要由2部分构成，一是工艺水平，这需要科研人员不断研发，台积电2022年前三季度研发费用高达40.5亿美元，折合人民币高达286亿，如果后来者想要追赶，仅仅每年的研发投入就足以吓退众人；第二是半导体制造重资产属性，投建一座5纳米的晶圆代工厂，投资额高达100亿美元以上。随着3纳米时代来临，建厂房的费用是一笔巨资，单凭一家公司，是无法完成此壮举，只能靠举国之力！ 垄断、不可替代不正是巴菲特梦寐以求的标的吗？ 再来聊聊为什么巴菲特选择在今年三季度抄底，而且是下重注？ 首先，台积电在工艺制程上并非","text":"昨日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦发布13F文件，数据显示，三季度伯克希尔大手笔抄底台积电6006万股，市值41亿美元，位列第10大持仓股： 这条消息非常劲爆，值得耐心寻味。 首先，台积电是全球顶级芯片代工巨头，典型的半导体科技股，而众所周知，巴菲特对科技股向来谨慎； 其次，巴菲特一出手，就把台积电买成了第10大重仓股，足见看好程度； 最后，台积电总部在台湾，此前屡遭市场质疑地缘政治风险，谁能想到，最为“保守”的股神竟然无惧风险，重仓持有！ 虽然巴菲特抄底台积电令市场颇为意外，但实际上，台积电的优秀很难让股神不动心！ 首先，台积电所在的行业是半导体，众所周知，半导体是当下经济的基石，无论是手机，还是汽车，抑或是未来的万物互联，都需要半导体，而且随着智能化的提升，对半导体的需求量成倍增加。 根据Infineon和Strategy Analytics的数据，传统燃油车功率半导体价值量为88美元/辆，纯电动车功率半导体价值量为459美元/辆，增幅高达421.6%。 而半导体产业链中，最困难的要属制造了。目前，最先进的5纳米工艺只有台积电和三星可以量产，后者在良率上一直不敌台积电。而2022年底，台积电将量产3纳米工艺。放眼全球，除了三星勉强能够为之一战之外，台积电打遍全球无敌手！ 代工厂的护城河主要由2部分构成，一是工艺水平，这需要科研人员不断研发，台积电2022年前三季度研发费用高达40.5亿美元，折合人民币高达286亿，如果后来者想要追赶，仅仅每年的研发投入就足以吓退众人；第二是半导体制造重资产属性，投建一座5纳米的晶圆代工厂，投资额高达100亿美元以上。随着3纳米时代来临，建厂房的费用是一笔巨资，单凭一家公司，是无法完成此壮举，只能靠举国之力！ 垄断、不可替代不正是巴菲特梦寐以求的标的吗？ 再来聊聊为什么巴菲特选择在今年三季度抄底，而且是下重注？ 首先，台积电在工艺制程上并非","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f40b24f5e1a929754b16b3474694bd01","width":"632","height":"288"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39808e75ad2012d9e13f4ec19177a82","width":"632","height":"421"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/314b58a59da4a9c9a703c755a1abe97f","width":"632","height":"194"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667902588","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667704662,"gmtCreate":1669117020856,"gmtModify":1669117022576,"author":{"id":"3574132046912414","authorId":"3574132046912414","name":"偶尔怀旧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f342ddc4fa77b963c584777ed42f04","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574132046912414","authorIdStr":"3574132046912414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667704662","repostId":"667375756","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":667375756,"gmtCreate":1668599023475,"gmtModify":1668599159252,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440721572920950","authorIdStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯的Q3：超预期的降本增效，以及派发美团的影响","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> Q3财报显示了较强的“降本增效”成果。虽然收入略微不及预期，但利润方面远超市场预期，也提高了估值基础。Q3整体收入1400.93亿元，同比下降2%，略微不及市场预期的1414亿元，每股可比收益为3.38元，同比增长1.6%，终止了前三个季度的下滑趋势，也高于市场预期的3.06元。运营数据方面，微信用户13.09亿，高于市场预期的13.03亿，同时QQ的活跃用户同比增长0.12%达到5.74亿，也是自2019年1月以来首次同比上升。娱乐业务的腾讯视频用户还是维持在1.2亿，腾讯并没有公布更详细的数字，因此用户量也是维持在这个水平，略微不及预期的1.26亿。从分类业务来看，VAS（增值服务）收入727.3亿元，同比减少3.29%，略低于预期的731.9亿元。游戏业务429亿元，同比减少4.5%，低于市场预期的434亿元，其中国内游戏312亿元，低于市场预期的319亿元，海外游戏收入117亿元，同比增长3.54%，高于市场预期的109亿元。从另一个维度看，手游业务收入410亿元，同比减少3.5%，连续三个季度下降，而PC端云游戏收入117亿元，与去年同期持平。社媒业务营收298亿元，同比减少1.65%，略高于市场预期的296亿元。在线广告业务收入214亿元，同比下降4.7%，依然较为疲软，但高于市场预期的203.4亿元，同时，金融科技和企业服务部门收入448亿元，同比增长3.5%，高于上个季度。支出方面，营收成本781亿元，同比下降2%，因此毛利率保持在44.2%的水平，是去年Q3以来的新高。行政费用265亿元，同比增长11%，但销售费用同比下降32%，因此可比息税前利润为516亿元，远远高于市场预期的354亿元。游戏Q3的游戏业务是东方不亮东南方亮。海外游戏的收入原本市","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 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 寻觅全球投资策略或机遇","htmlText":"德意志银行被誉为全球八大知名投行之一，在世界范围内拥有商业银行和投资银行等业务，其举办的全球投资人大会旨在向全球投资者介绍优秀上市公司(ADR)，以提供全球化视角下的交流平台，不断增长的中国市场和财富管理行业逐渐吸引了海外投资人关注和研究，因此作为立足于中国大陆地区的独立财富管理机构——海银控股，再次受邀参加德意志银行全球投资者大会。 作为赴美上市的中资独立财富管理机构，海银控股经历了数次经济周期考验，凭借稳健合规的经营理念，获得了客户信赖，同时助力了行业发展。海银控股2022财年业绩亮眼，净收入从2021财年的18.344 亿元增长5.9%至19.421 亿元；净利润2.36亿元，同比增长13.6%；营业利润率从2021财年的15.4%提升至2022财年的16.8%；客户总数由2021年的12.7万人增加至今年的14.1万人，同比增长10.8%；活跃客户数量从2021年的3.8万人增加至4.37万人，同比增长15.1%。凭借“财富管理”和“健康管理”双轮驱动，打造基于客户全生命周期的综合服务体系，为客户提供多元化、一站式综合服务，致力于成为财富管理行业领跑者。 26日港交所宣布暂停恒生指数期货等指数期货的市场波动条件机制，为市场的企稳创造出有利的条件。短期来看，美联储货币政策走向及中美关系等因素仍有可能对海外中概股价格和估值水平造成扰动。中长期来看，价格的中枢由行业未来发展前景和上市公司业绩基本面决定。 中概股震荡行情不确定，风波过后，是底部反转还是情绪狂欢？接下来的经济环境会有哪些改变？德意志银行全球投资者大会再次开启，接下来资本市场对哪些板块会更青睐？ 【活动参与方式】 1.&nbsp;关注<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4101854786458470\">@海银控股</a>&nbsp;老虎号； 2.&amp;nbs","listText":"德意志银行被誉为全球八大知名投行之一，在世界范围内拥有商业银行和投资银行等业务，其举办的全球投资人大会旨在向全球投资者介绍优秀上市公司(ADR)，以提供全球化视角下的交流平台，不断增长的中国市场和财富管理行业逐渐吸引了海外投资人关注和研究，因此作为立足于中国大陆地区的独立财富管理机构——海银控股，再次受邀参加德意志银行全球投资者大会。 作为赴美上市的中资独立财富管理机构，海银控股经历了数次经济周期考验，凭借稳健合规的经营理念，获得了客户信赖，同时助力了行业发展。海银控股2022财年业绩亮眼，净收入从2021财年的18.344 亿元增长5.9%至19.421 亿元；净利润2.36亿元，同比增长13.6%；营业利润率从2021财年的15.4%提升至2022财年的16.8%；客户总数由2021年的12.7万人增加至今年的14.1万人，同比增长10.8%；活跃客户数量从2021年的3.8万人增加至4.37万人，同比增长15.1%。凭借“财富管理”和“健康管理”双轮驱动，打造基于客户全生命周期的综合服务体系，为客户提供多元化、一站式综合服务，致力于成为财富管理行业领跑者。 26日港交所宣布暂停恒生指数期货等指数期货的市场波动条件机制，为市场的企稳创造出有利的条件。短期来看，美联储货币政策走向及中美关系等因素仍有可能对海外中概股价格和估值水平造成扰动。中长期来看，价格的中枢由行业未来发展前景和上市公司业绩基本面决定。 中概股震荡行情不确定，风波过后，是底部反转还是情绪狂欢？接下来的经济环境会有哪些改变？德意志银行全球投资者大会再次开启，接下来资本市场对哪些板块会更青睐？ 【活动参与方式】 1.&nbsp;关注<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4101854786458470\">@海银控股</a>&nbsp;老虎号； 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