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2021-12-15

$中芯国际(00981)$ 說去年年底50，今年上200的還在嗎 ><

2021-11-19

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 對不起我忍不住笑了

2021-09-16

$中国恒大(03333)$ 哪個聰明的抄底了，我買了花生準備看戲

2021-09-04

會去到哪裡呢

2021-08-13

買

“凛冬将至”！大摩“看衰”内存全行业

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12:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“凛冬将至”！大摩“看衰”内存全行业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159676162","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利认为，芯片短缺下的大量需求已经开始回调, 供应正在赶上需求，价格趋势可能从明年开始扭转向下，尤其是DRAM存储行业。摩根士丹利预计，一旦盈利增长预期逆转，行业PB估值可能会缩水近30%，实际","content":"<p>摩根士丹利认为，芯片短缺下的大量需求已经开始回调, 供应正在赶上需求，价格趋势可能从明年开始扭转向下，尤其是DRAM存储行业。摩根士丹利预计，一旦盈利增长预期逆转，行业PB估值可能会缩水近30%，实际情况可能会更糟。</p><p>在全球芯片荒未见缓解之际，大摩率先发出“看衰”信号，使得近日陷入回调的美国芯片股，再遭一记重击。</p><p><b>周四，在一份名为《凛冬将至》（Winter Is Coming）的报告中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师Joseph Moore写道，芯片行业正进入周期的后期阶段，即内存供过于求的阶段，存储设备制造商明年将面临艰难的定价环境。</b></p><p>美国芯片股应声大跌。周四，美国最大的电脑内存芯片厂商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>(Micron Technology)盘中一度下跌8%，最终收跌6.37%，为连续第四日下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>(Seagate Technology)下跌3.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>(Intel)也下跌1%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3009f96af7980368bfadd3518fda4057\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>美国费城半导体指数SOX下跌1.2%，，连跌六日，创2018年10月以来最长连跌纪录。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fa3b0ede5094763eb84af5fd04ea067\" tg-width=\"1253\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>周五，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>韩股开盘下跌，跌幅一度扩大至3.3%，创2月26日以来最大跌幅。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cc1042c76d6410252cbd5afe85d69f9\" tg-width=\"749\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>大摩： “卖出信号正在累积”</p><p>在上述报告中，摩根士丹利警告称，全球芯片短缺导致的大量需求已经开始回调, 供应正在赶上需求，价格上升趋势可能从明年开始扭转向下，尤其是DRAM存储行业。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dee8c5769903f5c21d58e057ce0d77a6\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>目前大摩的行业周期指标已经从“中期”转向“后期”，为2019年来首次，从历史上看，这种变化往往意味着充满挑战的远期回报。</p><p>摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore在报告中写道：</p><blockquote>最初我们认为，只要需求在第四季度保持强劲，价格就可能继续上涨，因为供应超过了产量，有助于收紧库存。然而，尽管需求相对保持强劲，但近几周需求有所恶化，导致价格预期下降。</blockquote><p>分析称，在生产商提价之前，使用DRAM的企业一直在增加库存。一些买家现在推迟购买DRAM，因为他们认为未来几个月价格将下跌。</p><p>据大摩，初步迹象显示，尽管第三季度价格持续上涨，但第四季度的定价环境将更具挑战性，价格趋势将在2022年彻底逆转。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b2cdc47a7c8250d1b49f785b227e8\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>因此，大摩调降了对DRAM行业的预期，预计DRAM价格在今年三季度达到峰值，明年一季度开始出现个位数降幅。但如下图所示，周期性的下滑往往会持续数年，DRAM合同价格在历次周期下滑中的降幅约为50%左右。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c564239fd4bf470f03ea9d4be5a36191\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>不过，大摩认为，即将到来的这轮下行周期将比以往的缓和，持续时间或许相似，但销量下降幅度可能不会那么大。</b></p><p>原因在于DRAM行业内出现的结构性变化，从供给端来看，行业整合加大了外来竞争者的门槛，需求端来看，已经从过去个人电脑占主导的情况转向更多样和更高存储要求的终端产品，使得相关公司的长期增长前景更加多样化。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb10e3c0a5ff5f86a963831da5b34b28\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>摩根士丹利预计，一旦盈利增长预期逆转，行业PB估值可能会缩水近30%<b>。实际情况可能会更糟，大摩指出，向下行周期过渡时，通常会看到PB市盈率下降50-64%。在低迷时期，DRAM公司股票一般从峰值回落32-63%，在过去两次下行周期，平均股价下跌了43%。</b>目前，DRAM公司股票已经从2021年4月的高点回调了12%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33eee20e1ecd5481320c4eebaba257c0\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>大摩警告称，“卖出信号正在累积”。</b></p><p>摩根士丹利将美光的评级从增持(over-weight)下调至观望(equal-weight)，并将目标价从105美元下调至75美元，比该股周四收盘价高7%。</p><p><b>摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore在报告中表示，美光的业务有所改善，但由于该公司的DRAM业务规模庞大，其股票可能首当其冲地承受定价下跌的冲击。</b></p><p>据了解，目前在研究美光股票的华尔街分析师中，有28位对该股给予“买入”评级，6位给予“持有”评级，没有卖出评级，平均目标价为115美元。</p><p>摩根士丹利还将SK海力士的股票评级从增持下调为减持，并下调SK海力士和三星的目标价格，同时将韩国科技行业的前景评级从持平(In-Line)下调为谨慎。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e769dd355ad55796a1947f835fdb146e\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637883><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为，芯片短缺下的大量需求已经开始回调, 供应正在赶上需求，价格趋势可能从明年开始扭转向下，尤其是DRAM存储行业。摩根士丹利预计，一旦盈利增长预期逆转，行业PB估值可能会缩水近30%，实际情况可能会更糟。在全球芯片荒未见缓解之际，大摩率先发出“看衰”信号，使得近日陷入回调的美国芯片股，再遭一记重击。周四，在一份名为《凛冬将至》（Winter Is Coming）的报告中，摩根士丹利...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637883\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1a8c5698b6f32ee1637556a15bb35b","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MS":"摩根士丹利","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637883","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159676162","content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，芯片短缺下的大量需求已经开始回调, 供应正在赶上需求，价格趋势可能从明年开始扭转向下，尤其是DRAM存储行业。摩根士丹利预计，一旦盈利增长预期逆转，行业PB估值可能会缩水近30%，实际情况可能会更糟。在全球芯片荒未见缓解之际，大摩率先发出“看衰”信号，使得近日陷入回调的美国芯片股，再遭一记重击。周四，在一份名为《凛冬将至》（Winter Is Coming）的报告中，摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore写道，芯片行业正进入周期的后期阶段，即内存供过于求的阶段，存储设备制造商明年将面临艰难的定价环境。美国芯片股应声大跌。周四，美国最大的电脑内存芯片厂商美光科技(Micron Technology)盘中一度下跌8%，最终收跌6.37%，为连续第四日下跌。希捷科技(Seagate Technology)下跌3.5%，英特尔(Intel)也下跌1%。美国费城半导体指数SOX下跌1.2%，，连跌六日，创2018年10月以来最长连跌纪录。周五，三星韩股开盘下跌，跌幅一度扩大至3.3%，创2月26日以来最大跌幅。大摩： “卖出信号正在累积”在上述报告中，摩根士丹利警告称，全球芯片短缺导致的大量需求已经开始回调, 供应正在赶上需求，价格上升趋势可能从明年开始扭转向下，尤其是DRAM存储行业。目前大摩的行业周期指标已经从“中期”转向“后期”，为2019年来首次，从历史上看，这种变化往往意味着充满挑战的远期回报。摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore在报告中写道：最初我们认为，只要需求在第四季度保持强劲，价格就可能继续上涨，因为供应超过了产量，有助于收紧库存。然而，尽管需求相对保持强劲，但近几周需求有所恶化，导致价格预期下降。分析称，在生产商提价之前，使用DRAM的企业一直在增加库存。一些买家现在推迟购买DRAM，因为他们认为未来几个月价格将下跌。据大摩，初步迹象显示，尽管第三季度价格持续上涨，但第四季度的定价环境将更具挑战性，价格趋势将在2022年彻底逆转。因此，大摩调降了对DRAM行业的预期，预计DRAM价格在今年三季度达到峰值，明年一季度开始出现个位数降幅。但如下图所示，周期性的下滑往往会持续数年，DRAM合同价格在历次周期下滑中的降幅约为50%左右。不过，大摩认为，即将到来的这轮下行周期将比以往的缓和，持续时间或许相似，但销量下降幅度可能不会那么大。原因在于DRAM行业内出现的结构性变化，从供给端来看，行业整合加大了外来竞争者的门槛，需求端来看，已经从过去个人电脑占主导的情况转向更多样和更高存储要求的终端产品，使得相关公司的长期增长前景更加多样化。摩根士丹利预计，一旦盈利增长预期逆转，行业PB估值可能会缩水近30%。实际情况可能会更糟，大摩指出，向下行周期过渡时，通常会看到PB市盈率下降50-64%。在低迷时期，DRAM公司股票一般从峰值回落32-63%，在过去两次下行周期，平均股价下跌了43%。目前，DRAM公司股票已经从2021年4月的高点回调了12%。大摩警告称，“卖出信号正在累积”。摩根士丹利将美光的评级从增持(over-weight)下调至观望(equal-weight)，并将目标价从105美元下调至75美元，比该股周四收盘价高7%。摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore在报告中表示，美光的业务有所改善，但由于该公司的DRAM业务规模庞大，其股票可能首当其冲地承受定价下跌的冲击。据了解，目前在研究美光股票的华尔街分析师中，有28位对该股给予“买入”评级，6位给予“持有”评级，没有卖出评级，平均目标价为115美元。摩根士丹利还将SK海力士的股票评级从增持下调为减持，并下调SK海力士和三星的目标价格，同时将韩国科技行业的前景评级从持平(In-Line)下调为谨慎。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":876146685,"gmtCreate":1637285562007,"gmtModify":1637285562007,"author":{"id":"3573536979390717","authorId":"3573536979390717","name":"Moneybeast","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0eba559de0aef4833517348d451d7b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 對不起我忍不住笑了","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 對不起我忍不住笑了","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 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