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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a417d8f8304a2523b37c365f8d5a1a0","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8SqauLUTjqaeqhCJstI-6w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129514955","content_text":"鼠年金融市场交易仅剩四个交易日。“就地过年”将对宏观经济及相关产业产生怎样的影响?大宗商品中有哪些板块受益?行业人士认为,“就地过年”意味着今年不会出现大规模劳动力流动的现象,对消费的影响类似去年,“宅经济”、医药防疫、在线教育娱乐是最受益的三个行业,但对生产的影响却时全新的、不同的。\n从产业链供需看,劳动密集的中游制造生产最为持续,由此带动上游基础材料需求增长,终端制造需区分产品需求的可持续性,按受益幅度,依次包括中游制造(机械、建筑)>基础材料(采掘、有色、钢铁、化纤)>终端制造(电子设备、家具)。\n从用工人数来看,建筑业最受益,然后是基础材料、采掘、有色、钢铁行业。受影响最大的是以服务业为主的第三产业。尽管金融业和房地产业几乎不会受到“就地过年”政策的影响,但住宿餐饮、交通运输、零售批发、信息软件和租赁等服务业都将受到不同程度的影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317444081,"gmtCreate":1612480583043,"gmtModify":1703762438756,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"荔枝大涨近60%,股价本周已翻三倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197633592","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成","content":"<p>周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n荔枝大涨近60%,股价本周已翻三倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-04 23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317584545,"gmtCreate":1612455551187,"gmtModify":1703762251235,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛","listText":"牛","text":"牛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317584545","repostId":"1197633592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197633592","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612451567,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197633592?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-04 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"荔枝大涨近60%,股价本周已翻三倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197633592","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成","content":"<p>周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n荔枝大涨近60%,股价本周已翻三倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-04 23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317584343,"gmtCreate":1612455520582,"gmtModify":1703762250721,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a>[微笑] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a>[微笑] ","text":"$黑莓(BB)$[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07037dc1f6a9d452db6e12e84900a1aa","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317584343","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314011379,"gmtCreate":1612279812791,"gmtModify":1703759886668,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] ","listText":"[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] ","text":"[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314011379","repostId":"1106299362","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315159926,"gmtCreate":1612224636965,"gmtModify":1703758971304,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲鸭","listText":"冲鸭","text":"冲鸭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315159926","repostId":"1134189009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315127148,"gmtCreate":1612224503684,"gmtModify":1703758968360,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲啊冲啊冲啊冲啊","listText":"冲啊冲啊冲啊冲啊","text":"冲啊冲啊冲啊冲啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315127148","repostId":"1167492371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167492371","pubTimestamp":1612149335,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167492371?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-01 11:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"逼空大战引发余震,华尔街警告本周市场变数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167492371","media":"Wind","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道,在美股“逼空”行情过后,本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点:亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩,而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓,或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道,在美股“逼空”行情过后,本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点:亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩,而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓,或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。</p>\n<p>市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”</p>\n<p>在周二市场收盘后,谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快,原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩的增长。华尔街预期,不计流量收购成本的销售额增长18%,至441.6亿美元,而第三季度的增长为15%。</p>\n<p>摩根大通(JPMorgan)分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)在上周的一份报告中写道:“我们对搜索引擎营销商(SEM)的检查显示,搜索支出从3季度加速至4季度。”他补充说:“某些垂直行业受到疫情的严重影响,其中包括我们认为在疫情之前占收入10-15%的旅行,由于复苏和相关停工,整个4季度仍可能受到挑战,” “我们相信,随着消费者继续接种疫苗,这些垂直领域的复苏将持续,从而推动广告收入的进一步增长。”</p>\n<p>同时,受疫情期间在线购物的需求推动,电子商务巨头亚马逊很可能会报告另一个惊人的季度。该公司可能将发布其第一个季度收入超过1000亿美元的财报,这将使2020年全年收入达到惊人的3790亿美元。</p>\n<p>瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师斯蒂芬·朱(Stephen Ju)在上周的一份报告中写道:“全球消费者越来越依赖线上购物,这对亚马逊具有以下近乎长期的潜在影响:1、2021年及以后的GMV (总商品价值)估计值有上升空间; 2、更高的购买频率增强了亚马逊的客户获取/留存成本/品牌价值。”</p>\n<p>但是,尽管收入在第四季度和假日购物旺季销售可能再次飙升,但亚马逊上一季度也增加了支出,以维持业务增长并在疫情期间提高员工的安全性。亚马逊表示,考虑到与疫情相关的成本约为40亿美元,其第四季度的营业收入将在10亿美元至45亿美元之间。相比之下,2019年第四季度的营业收入为39亿美元。</p>\n<p>周五,美国劳工部1月份的就业报告很可能表明,在12月就业人数下降之后,经济将在2021年初恢复增加的就业人数。Capital Economics高级美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)在周四的报告中称:“我们估计1月份非农就业人数基本没有变化,但近期的财政支持和新病毒病例的回落表明劳动力市场将很快恢复。”</p>\n<p>逼空大战或引发“余震”,华尔街警告抛售风险</p>\n<p>亚马逊和Alphabet的季报收益,1月份就业报告以及华盛顿对刺激政策的讨论可能对未来一周的市场都很重要,但没有什么比散户投资者推动的“轧空行情”更引起市场关注。</p>\n<p>高盛警告称,随着散户投资者以创纪录的数量进入市场,交易热潮还将持续,而逼空行情甚至可能给市场带来大幅回调。该投资银行在周五晚间的一份报告中写道:“根据高盛总理服务部的数据,本周是自2009年2月以来最大的活跃对冲基金减仓。基金为弥补空头亏损卖出了多头头寸,涵盖了各个领域。”</p>\n<p>“尽管进行了积极的去杠杆化,对冲基金的净值和按市值计的总风险敞口仍然接近有记录以来的最高水平,这表明存在由头寸驱动的抛售的持续风险。”高盛分析师写道:“上周的情况表明,市场一小部分不可持续的过度投机,有可能引发一系列多米诺骨牌效应,并造成更广泛的动荡。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee6f9b7cef1d9e60efd3c019a96722a\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外,尽管近期美股市场的轧空行为主要集中在小市值个股上,但高盛分析师表示,大量的轧空将导致投资者减少其他个股的多头头寸,以弥补空头上的亏损,而这将会使市场波动蔓延至至市值较大的个股。近年来美股低成交量和高集中度的交易特征越来越明显,这增加了一只基金的清盘可能在市场上滚雪球的风险。</p>\n<p>另一方面,高盛承认“散户交易的繁荣可以继续”,因为“大量的美国家庭现金应继续推动交易的繁荣”。当前5万亿美元规模的货币基金市场中,超过50%是由家庭单位持有,较疫情前增长了1万亿美元。如果短期轧空行情继续维持,可能对资本市场的未来产生深远影响。</p>\n<p>但除了高盛的警告声以外,多家投行并不认为近期市场的轧空行情会将风险扩散到整个市场。根据巴克莱银行的统计,卖空交易总额为8000亿美元,约占美国股票总市值的2%,这表明卖空者还没有扩大规模。大量做空的公司(利息占其流通股的20%以上)有400亿美元的股票被做空,占全部看跌押注的5%。</p>\n<p>巴克莱银行的Deshpande在上周五的一份报告中提到GameStop的股票行情时写道:“尽管卖空始于GME,但似乎正在向更广泛的股票范围蔓延。”“尽管我们预计会出现更多的去杠杆化,但最终问题的规模似乎相当有限。”</p>\n<p>此外,虽然标准普尔500指数上周下跌了3%以上,但交易员们认为大盘走势井然有序。对于包括杜布拉科夫•拉科斯布哈斯在内的摩根大通策略师来说,这次下跌可能只是“短暂的技术性下跌”。分析师在周五的报告中写道,随着企业收益改善和美国消费者走强,这次回落是增加股市的又一个机会,尤其是那些与经济复苏相关的股票。</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n逼空大战引发余震,华尔街警告本周市场变数\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-01 11:15 北京时间 <a href=https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat><strong>Wind</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道,在美股“逼空”行情过后,本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点:亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩,而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓,或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”\n在周二市场收盘后,谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快,原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c56ea9f4571ab8517325db0c66a1a81","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167492371","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道,在美股“逼空”行情过后,本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点:亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩,而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓,或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”\n在周二市场收盘后,谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快,原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩的增长。华尔街预期,不计流量收购成本的销售额增长18%,至441.6亿美元,而第三季度的增长为15%。\n摩根大通(JPMorgan)分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)在上周的一份报告中写道:“我们对搜索引擎营销商(SEM)的检查显示,搜索支出从3季度加速至4季度。”他补充说:“某些垂直行业受到疫情的严重影响,其中包括我们认为在疫情之前占收入10-15%的旅行,由于复苏和相关停工,整个4季度仍可能受到挑战,” “我们相信,随着消费者继续接种疫苗,这些垂直领域的复苏将持续,从而推动广告收入的进一步增长。”\n同时,受疫情期间在线购物的需求推动,电子商务巨头亚马逊很可能会报告另一个惊人的季度。该公司可能将发布其第一个季度收入超过1000亿美元的财报,这将使2020年全年收入达到惊人的3790亿美元。\n瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师斯蒂芬·朱(Stephen Ju)在上周的一份报告中写道:“全球消费者越来越依赖线上购物,这对亚马逊具有以下近乎长期的潜在影响:1、2021年及以后的GMV (总商品价值)估计值有上升空间; 2、更高的购买频率增强了亚马逊的客户获取/留存成本/品牌价值。”\n但是,尽管收入在第四季度和假日购物旺季销售可能再次飙升,但亚马逊上一季度也增加了支出,以维持业务增长并在疫情期间提高员工的安全性。亚马逊表示,考虑到与疫情相关的成本约为40亿美元,其第四季度的营业收入将在10亿美元至45亿美元之间。相比之下,2019年第四季度的营业收入为39亿美元。\n周五,美国劳工部1月份的就业报告很可能表明,在12月就业人数下降之后,经济将在2021年初恢复增加的就业人数。Capital Economics高级美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)在周四的报告中称:“我们估计1月份非农就业人数基本没有变化,但近期的财政支持和新病毒病例的回落表明劳动力市场将很快恢复。”\n逼空大战或引发“余震”,华尔街警告抛售风险\n亚马逊和Alphabet的季报收益,1月份就业报告以及华盛顿对刺激政策的讨论可能对未来一周的市场都很重要,但没有什么比散户投资者推动的“轧空行情”更引起市场关注。\n高盛警告称,随着散户投资者以创纪录的数量进入市场,交易热潮还将持续,而逼空行情甚至可能给市场带来大幅回调。该投资银行在周五晚间的一份报告中写道:“根据高盛总理服务部的数据,本周是自2009年2月以来最大的活跃对冲基金减仓。基金为弥补空头亏损卖出了多头头寸,涵盖了各个领域。”\n“尽管进行了积极的去杠杆化,对冲基金的净值和按市值计的总风险敞口仍然接近有记录以来的最高水平,这表明存在由头寸驱动的抛售的持续风险。”高盛分析师写道:“上周的情况表明,市场一小部分不可持续的过度投机,有可能引发一系列多米诺骨牌效应,并造成更广泛的动荡。”\n\n此外,尽管近期美股市场的轧空行为主要集中在小市值个股上,但高盛分析师表示,大量的轧空将导致投资者减少其他个股的多头头寸,以弥补空头上的亏损,而这将会使市场波动蔓延至至市值较大的个股。近年来美股低成交量和高集中度的交易特征越来越明显,这增加了一只基金的清盘可能在市场上滚雪球的风险。\n另一方面,高盛承认“散户交易的繁荣可以继续”,因为“大量的美国家庭现金应继续推动交易的繁荣”。当前5万亿美元规模的货币基金市场中,超过50%是由家庭单位持有,较疫情前增长了1万亿美元。如果短期轧空行情继续维持,可能对资本市场的未来产生深远影响。\n但除了高盛的警告声以外,多家投行并不认为近期市场的轧空行情会将风险扩散到整个市场。根据巴克莱银行的统计,卖空交易总额为8000亿美元,约占美国股票总市值的2%,这表明卖空者还没有扩大规模。大量做空的公司(利息占其流通股的20%以上)有400亿美元的股票被做空,占全部看跌押注的5%。\n巴克莱银行的Deshpande在上周五的一份报告中提到GameStop的股票行情时写道:“尽管卖空始于GME,但似乎正在向更广泛的股票范围蔓延。”“尽管我们预计会出现更多的去杠杆化,但最终问题的规模似乎相当有限。”\n此外,虽然标准普尔500指数上周下跌了3%以上,但交易员们认为大盘走势井然有序。对于包括杜布拉科夫•拉科斯布哈斯在内的摩根大通策略师来说,这次下跌可能只是“短暂的技术性下跌”。分析师在周五的报告中写道,随着企业收益改善和美国消费者走强,这次回落是增加股市的又一个机会,尤其是那些与经济复苏相关的股票。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315124266,"gmtCreate":1612224443155,"gmtModify":1703758967495,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分享持仓冲啊","listText":"分享持仓冲啊","text":"分享持仓冲啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3965b853ec46f2088158cf0ba26714","width":"1125","height":"3660"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315124266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318872513,"gmtCreate":1611849302532,"gmtModify":1703755162643,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"故事","listText":"故事","text":"故事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318872513","repostId":"1116586224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":317584343,"gmtCreate":1612455520582,"gmtModify":1703762250721,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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","text":"$黑莓(BB)$[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07037dc1f6a9d452db6e12e84900a1aa","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317584343","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389374822,"gmtCreate":1612704985766,"gmtModify":1703764383308,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"苹果","listText":"苹果","text":"苹果","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389374822","repostId":"2109701664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2109701664","pubTimestamp":1612685721,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2109701664?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-07 16:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2021年的“阿尔法”在哪里?私募大佬如是说","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109701664","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大类资产配置的热门讨论","content":"<p>2021年大类资产配置的关键是什么?</p><p>在各大类资产均有显著涨幅后,2021年的“阿尔法”(超额收益机会)又在哪里?</p><p>近日,由朝阳永续主办的2020年度(第十五届)中国私募基金风云榜的策略论坛上,由半夏投资创始人李蓓担任主持人,知名私募从容投资、百亿债券私募银叶投资以及量化私募黑翼资产的合伙人一起围绕上述热门话题展开了精彩的讨论。</p><p><b>投资“右下角”的资产</b></p><p>从容投资董事长吕俊指出,2020年大类资产均出现上涨,处于估值区间靠上的位置。但要看到,债券资产仍处于便宜的位置,具有配置价值。</p><p>过去两年A股涨了很多,但并不是“全面的贵”,去年沪深300指数涨了20%,但涨幅集中于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603288\">海天味业</a>等核心资产,有大量的股票跌幅明显。因此,我们要去投资“右下角”的资产,在没涨的股票中挖掘机会。这反映了股票资产内部分化非常严重,整体市场的估值高,并没有发展到完全没有机会的程度。</p><p>吕俊还指出,虽然连续两年股市收益可观,但并不代表2021年机会就少。建议投资者不要乱折腾,特别是基金持有人要相信管理人的判断,更不要追随明星基金经理抄作业。</p><p><b>另类投资机会最大</b></p><p>百亿债券私募银叶投资许巳阳指出,2016年-2018年监管层主导去杠杆,市场在2018年出现“一半海水一半火焰”的情景,“火焰”就是指利率债资产,逐渐回到绝对值低点。</p><p>上个星期,中国央行的表态再次造成债券延续下跌局面。未来投资机会在利率债,现在正处于左侧阶段。如果十年期国债利率回到3.5%,这个水平处于过去二十年的中轴位置,今年存在波段做多的机会。要看到央行有着预期管理,全年有50个点的波动机会,需要投资者把握。</p><p>换言之,十年期国债利率到了3.5%才可能存在利率债交易机会,因此可预期的机会窗口是下半年,拐点还未出现。</p><p>今年上半年,我们将继续看到中国个人投资者200万亿财富持续转移,不断进入权益资产,风险偏好仍会上升。</p><p>债券资产最有显著机会的是不良资产和高收益债,属于一种另类投资。去年AAA国企信用风险暴露,央行投放了流动性,部分高收益债和不良资产出现好价格。</p><p>由于当前信用债市场容量很大,信用利差不大,但仍有阿尔法机会,市场阶段性承压的时候能够选到好券。</p><p>一个可以观望的拐点是今年年中。上半年经济预期将同比向上,央行流动性的方向盘转向将在上半年完成,债券在基金面也有出现高波动;此外,拜登上台后推出强刺激计划,将带来外需提振,幅度可能超预期,对中国出口规模也会有影响。</p><p><b>看好沪深300增强策略</b></p><p>黑翼资产合伙人邹倚天指出:今年沪深300指数增强的机会大于中证500。但近两年来,中证500增强策略的阿尔法都在衰减。</p><p>一个重要的问题是:2020年初量化私募资产从2000亿扩展至5000亿,直接影响到市场的阿尔法。目前,沪深300指数增强做的偏少,均集中于中证500增强,因此存在投资机会。</p><p>目前支持高频阿尔法策略的难度加大,整个因子的迭代速度非常快,未来量化要采取多元化的因子,包括偏市场行为的因子、动量因子、基本面因子和分析师因子。</p><p>量化基金的回报水平难以单看一年表现,量化策略不押注任何市场风格和行业,持仓有500-1000只股票,因此以三到五年为考察周期。</p><p>如果谈量化投资风险,主要就是策略过于拥挤,产生策略同质化,因此要确保管理人的策略容量与管理规模匹配,研发低相关性的策略。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021年的“阿尔法”在哪里?私募大佬如是说\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-07 16:15 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619790><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2021年大类资产配置的关键是什么?在各大类资产均有显著涨幅后,2021年的“阿尔法”(超额收益机会)又在哪里?近日,由朝阳永续主办的2020年度(第十五届)中国私募基金风云榜的策略论坛上,由半夏投资创始人李蓓担任主持人,知名私募从容投资、百亿债券私募银叶投资以及量化私募黑翼资产的合伙人一起围绕上述热门话题展开了精彩的讨论。投资“右下角”的资产从容投资董事长吕俊指出,2020年大类资产均出现上涨,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619790\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af47ab6c10e46f0aea6733871f311696","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619790","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109701664","content_text":"2021年大类资产配置的关键是什么?在各大类资产均有显著涨幅后,2021年的“阿尔法”(超额收益机会)又在哪里?近日,由朝阳永续主办的2020年度(第十五届)中国私募基金风云榜的策略论坛上,由半夏投资创始人李蓓担任主持人,知名私募从容投资、百亿债券私募银叶投资以及量化私募黑翼资产的合伙人一起围绕上述热门话题展开了精彩的讨论。投资“右下角”的资产从容投资董事长吕俊指出,2020年大类资产均出现上涨,处于估值区间靠上的位置。但要看到,债券资产仍处于便宜的位置,具有配置价值。过去两年A股涨了很多,但并不是“全面的贵”,去年沪深300指数涨了20%,但涨幅集中于贵州茅台、海天味业等核心资产,有大量的股票跌幅明显。因此,我们要去投资“右下角”的资产,在没涨的股票中挖掘机会。这反映了股票资产内部分化非常严重,整体市场的估值高,并没有发展到完全没有机会的程度。吕俊还指出,虽然连续两年股市收益可观,但并不代表2021年机会就少。建议投资者不要乱折腾,特别是基金持有人要相信管理人的判断,更不要追随明星基金经理抄作业。另类投资机会最大百亿债券私募银叶投资许巳阳指出,2016年-2018年监管层主导去杠杆,市场在2018年出现“一半海水一半火焰”的情景,“火焰”就是指利率债资产,逐渐回到绝对值低点。上个星期,中国央行的表态再次造成债券延续下跌局面。未来投资机会在利率债,现在正处于左侧阶段。如果十年期国债利率回到3.5%,这个水平处于过去二十年的中轴位置,今年存在波段做多的机会。要看到央行有着预期管理,全年有50个点的波动机会,需要投资者把握。换言之,十年期国债利率到了3.5%才可能存在利率债交易机会,因此可预期的机会窗口是下半年,拐点还未出现。今年上半年,我们将继续看到中国个人投资者200万亿财富持续转移,不断进入权益资产,风险偏好仍会上升。债券资产最有显著机会的是不良资产和高收益债,属于一种另类投资。去年AAA国企信用风险暴露,央行投放了流动性,部分高收益债和不良资产出现好价格。由于当前信用债市场容量很大,信用利差不大,但仍有阿尔法机会,市场阶段性承压的时候能够选到好券。一个可以观望的拐点是今年年中。上半年经济预期将同比向上,央行流动性的方向盘转向将在上半年完成,债券在基金面也有出现高波动;此外,拜登上台后推出强刺激计划,将带来外需提振,幅度可能超预期,对中国出口规模也会有影响。看好沪深300增强策略黑翼资产合伙人邹倚天指出:今年沪深300指数增强的机会大于中证500。但近两年来,中证500增强策略的阿尔法都在衰减。一个重要的问题是:2020年初量化私募资产从2000亿扩展至5000亿,直接影响到市场的阿尔法。目前,沪深300指数增强做的偏少,均集中于中证500增强,因此存在投资机会。目前支持高频阿尔法策略的难度加大,整个因子的迭代速度非常快,未来量化要采取多元化的因子,包括偏市场行为的因子、动量因子、基本面因子和分析师因子。量化基金的回报水平难以单看一年表现,量化策略不押注任何市场风格和行业,持仓有500-1000只股票,因此以三到五年为考察周期。如果谈量化投资风险,主要就是策略过于拥挤,产生策略同质化,因此要确保管理人的策略容量与管理规模匹配,研发低相关性的策略。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156268725,"gmtCreate":1625226027367,"gmtModify":1631884627188,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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15:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"互联网巨头,干嘛抢着发春晚红包?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110863044","media":"豹变","summary":"诞生于上世纪80年代春晚,不仅见证了中国社会翻天覆地的变化,还陪伴了一代又一代中国人的成长。随着春晚的不断变化,人们也开始从关注春晚的演员和节目,变成了抢互联网公司发的红包。唯一不变的是,春晚仍然在除夕夜吸引着我们的全部注意力。春晚的参与者,也早已不只是央视一家,背后更包括各大广告赞助商品牌、新近涌来的互联网公司,和全球数量最庞大的电视观众。按照各家互联网公司给出的数据,2021年春节红包将达到百亿元。","content":"<p>诞生于上世纪80年代春晚,不仅见证了中国社会翻天覆地的变化,还陪伴了一代又一代中国人的成长。随着春晚的不断变化,人们也开始从关注春晚的演员和节目,变成了抢互联网公司发的红包。唯一不变的是,春晚仍然在除夕夜吸引着我们的全部注意力。</p><p>守在电视机前看春节联欢晚会,已经成为除夕夜中国人雷打不动的习惯。</p><p>办好一场春晚,既要营造家人团圆、阖家欢乐的幸福氛围,也要有文化传承和商业价值。</p><p>春晚也在变化。最近几年,关于春晚,越来越多人关注的重点,不再是邀请了哪些演员,有什么节目,而是谁给电视机前的观众发红包。</p><p>春晚的参与者,也早已不只是央视一家,背后更包括各大广告赞助商品牌、新近涌来的互联网公司,和全球数量最庞大的电视观众。</p><p>按照各家互联网公司给出的数据,2021年春节红包将达到百亿元。</p><p>这场晚会中,每个参与者的目的都不尽相同,而每年春晚台前幕后上演的种种,更像是一场暗战,各有所图。</p><p><b>一场晚会如何保持生命力</b></p><p>如果穿越到1983年2月12日,晚上8点打开电视机,你将会看到中国历史上第一次直播晚会,第一届央视春节联欢晚会。</p><p>在这场晚会上,你可以看到相声大师侯宝林即兴表演的相声《戏剧杂谈》,演员姜昆、马季和国民女星刘晓庆演的小品。刘晓庆还演唱了当年最火的歌曲《绒花》,让观众兴奋喝彩。</p><p>其中,还有一位登台献唱《小背篓》的女演员成为明星,连续23年登上春晚,她就是李谷一。一首《难忘今宵》成为每年晚会的总结陈词。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146f7dda66ad08796de6916daad91256\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2011年央视春晚,李谷一演唱《难忘今宵》。</p><p>组织形式上,春晚强调“谁火请谁”,邀请的都是人民群众最喜欢的演员明星。</p><p>内容上,春晚则强调笑点,因为1983年的春晚导演组觉得,过去几十年中人们的精神高度紧张,文化生活充满压抑,如今的节目应该有笑话,说段子,让每个观众都能捧腹大笑,开心过春节。</p><p>导演组还觉得,春晚的目的在于把笑的权利还给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>,让老百姓说话。最终,节目组接到了来自全国各地的数千个电话,收到了60多万封信,观众表达了对这场晚会的满意和赞许。</p><p>尽管当时中国绝大部分地区还未普及电视,但这场晚会开创的歌曲、舞蹈、语言节目,定下了未来几十年春晚的基本样式。</p><p>2007年,时隔23年后,央视网发起了一项投票,评选观众最喜爱的一届春晚。最终的投票结果显示,1983年的春晚以压倒性优势排名第一,成为中国电视史上最受欢迎的节目。</p><p>这些年,关于春晚的观点评论众说纷纭,很多人觉得春晚不再好笑,也有人觉得春晚不接地气,还有人认为春晚充满广告,商业气氛让年味淡了不少。</p><p>每个人的说法都有各自的道理,但一个不可回避的问题在于,春晚已经陪伴中国人度过了30多个春节,这期间中国社会发生了翻天覆地的变化。</p><p>从电视时代到互联网时代,每一代人都有各自的娱乐方式,想要像当年那样办一场举国联欢的晚会,已经不是一件容易的事情。</p><p>如何让春晚保持生命力,满足一代又一代人的审美需求和观看习惯,成为了央视每年一次的大考。</p><p>拥抱年轻化,是这些年央视春晚的一大转向和趋势。从引入互联网转播,邀请流量明星和普通人上春晚,到开启互联网话题互动,大量使用网络热词和流行语,只为博得观众一笑,背后是无数人的策划和集体努力。</p><p>而在最近几年中,央视春晚找到的最佳办法是,与各大互联网公司合作。因为相比一家机构,思维活络的互联网公司更加善于组织话题和创新玩法。</p><p>于是就有了各种集福卡、抢红包、直播、短视频的玩法,让春晚变得更加丰富。</p><p>一份<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>的研究报告显示,自2015年春晚开启红包模式以来,原本已经逐渐乏力的春晚收视用户规模正在逐年增加。春晚观众从2016年的10.3亿增长至2020年12.3亿人。</p><p>在一个电视媒体的功能日益弱化的时代,央视春晚观众不降反增,本身已经是最大的成功。</p><p><b>互联网公司的用户教育课</b></p><p>互联网公司投入到一年又一年的春晚红包互动权的争夺中,核心在于,这些互联网时代的流量捕手们熟知,每一个流量、每一份注意力都弥足珍贵,且具备商业价值。</p><p>最早将春晚与互联网公司联合到一起的产品,是微信。</p><p>2014年微信推出微信红包,抢红包活动,吸引超过800万人参与。一年后的2015年春晚,微信登上舞台,以摇一摇推广微信支付和微信钱包,开创了春晚新玩法。</p><p>而从2015年开始,所有的春节红包活动都由互联网公司包圆。</p><p>互联网公司参与发红包这件事,说到底是看重了春晚巨大的流量池。互联网公司希望通过这场注意力最集中的场合,给老用户和新用户上一堂培训课。</p><p>统计显示,2015年,微信发出5亿元红包,春晚微信摇一摇互动总量达110亿次,微信钱包绑卡用户突破2亿,仅依靠一次策划和几个小时的晚会,就完成了支付宝8年时间才勉强完成的业绩目标。</p><p>一年之后,支付宝为了强化支付平台的霸主地位,重金拿下央视春晚红包互动权。据央视广告中心主任透露,这次春晚花费的成本,比上一年增加了五倍。</p><p>这一次,支付宝创新玩法咻一咻红包,发出8亿红包,吸引3245亿次参与,虽然此举丝毫未撼动微信在社交上的地位,却很好地遏制了微信支付咄咄逼人的攻势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839bf4f4e995c64b50e33600e224caf6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2016年,西安市民看春晚时用手机抢红包 。</p><p>2019年,已在互联网大混战中日益衰微的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>首次参加春晚,意在推广自家的手机百度app。</p><p>最终百度发出9亿元现金红包,全球观众参与互动量达208亿次,而当晚百度app日活从1.6亿直接跃升至3亿。</p><p>只不过,这份春晚红包也并非想发就能发。</p><p>2017年,得到app创始人罗振宇前往央视广告部,想要在春晚给得到app做个广告。但他被回绝了。广告部的领导告诉他,互联网公司上春晚标准很简单,需要日活过一亿,不然春晚广告出来的瞬间,服务器就会崩掉。</p><p>事实上,哪怕是淘宝,在此前赞助春晚红包活动期间,也出现了数次宕机。</p><p>负面缠身,也可能对春晚赞助商的资格有影响。</p><p>2021年央视春晚红包的赞助权,原本已在2020年9月归属于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>。按照原计划,拼多多将在春晚五个小时内发出14亿元红包,主要目的是宣传拼多多品牌和社区团购“多多买菜项目”。</p><p>拼多多的2020年很风光,市值从百亿美元迈进了千亿美元,又快速升至两千亿美元。</p><p>但在2020年年末,拼多多相继发生了员工意外死亡、自杀、过劳加班、劳资纠纷问题,将这家公司挡在了春晚门外,红包合作伙伴在1月中旬被临时更换为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>。</p><p>抖音计划发20亿元红包,用来推自家新上线的抖音支付,希望降低对微信和支付宝的依赖。</p><p><b>赞助商只剩捧个钱场</b></p><p>对于每一家关注春晚,希望在春晚上面对全国电视观众的品牌厂商而言,每年的11月18日都是一个重要的日子。</p><p>这一天的寓意是“要要要发”,来自全国各地的竞标厂商都会齐聚北京梅地亚中心,开启残酷的春晚各类赞助商竞标。</p><p>竞标的玩法并非是开始就有的,早年的春晚还未意识到这一品牌的商业价值,于是1984年的春晚,济南康巴斯钟表厂将3000只石英钟送到了央视,成为赞助商。这样的方法持续了8年,屡试不爽,康巴斯钟表品牌也家喻户晓。</p><p>在康巴斯之后,孔府家酒、沱牌、哈药六厂、美的等品牌,通过春晚一夜成名,美的更是前后11次拿下春晚标王,成为冠名春晚的主要厂商。</p><p>但在过去十年,随着移动互联网的普及与新媒体的发展,投放在新媒体的广告开始快速蚕食电视广告的市场。与之相关的,就是传统春晚标王的衰落,春晚赞助的经验正在逐渐失效。</p><p>全球最大广告主<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PG\">宝洁</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ULVR.UK\">联合利华</a>在2015年前后,相继开始了持续数年的广告投放预算优化,计划通过削减电视广告,消除在传统媒体渠道的过度浪费,而节省下的资金,将更多用于新媒体和店内营销。联合利华保守估计,通过优化,每年将省下20亿美元的营销费用。</p><p>这股风在中国消费品市场广告上的影响同样显著,自2015年以来,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NLSN\">尼尔森</a>等机构的监测数据显示,日化行业的传统媒体广告中,电视媒体广告呈现骤降趋势,仅当年市场投放份额便下降了三成。</p><p>广电总局的监测数据显示,全国除去央视之外的头部五大卫视,近年来广告投放的年下降幅度达到5.4%。</p><p>也就是说,在一场电视晚会上刷存在感,很难让观众愿意为之买单。当下的消费者一周接受的信息,可能是过去数年来接受的信息之和,品牌营销预算要花在刀刃上。</p><p>而长期以来广告市场一个屡试不爽的规律则是,能让人记住的广告,特点就是不停重复。广告需要常态化展示,而非春晚展示一次就能解决所有问题。</p><p>如今春晚更大的作用在于标榜和背书,属于有钱捧个场。比如,今年春晚的独家服装合作伙伴<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600398\">海澜之家</a>,过去凭借电视广告上一句“男人的衣柜”爆红多年,但近年来它已经陆续减少对电视媒体渠道的投放,2020年的发力重点变成了网红直播带货。</p><p><b>抢红包的尴尬</b></p><p>于用户而言,发红包留下的印象,远比晚会内容,和与自己无关的企业给予晚会的广告冠名和赞助都有效。</p><p>不过,人们对于这些年的春晚红包,套路大于实质的感受也非常真切。再大的红包,均摊到每个人手中,派发金额也会变得相当有限。</p><p>事实上,绝大多数人也发现了其中奥秘。2015年的第一次春晚红包,最终发出1.2亿个,平均每个红包4.1元。</p><p>之后的支付宝集福、淘宝红包、百度红包和快手红包,除了极少数幸运儿能够带走大奖,对于绝大多数用户而言,也就是单次的几元到几十元不等。</p><p>而更多时候,用户领到的还是随着现金红包同步发出的平台充值卡,以及各种联合合作厂商品牌冠名定制的优惠券和祝福贺卡。</p><p>2021年的春节红包,最大的亮点和噱头甚至已经不在春晚,而在临近春节期间,各大app已经按耐不住想要教育用的心,已经将各自应用的icon更换成特定的红包封面。</p><p>当抖音官方率先更新了分20亿的红包logo之后,快手、百度、拼多多相继跟出分21亿、分22亿、分28亿的宣传。</p><p>但在博得眼球这件事情上,他们还是不如乐视。在更新后图标上,乐视写下了“欠122亿”,分文不花,碾压所有对手。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/202b3d7b643a457ef7f0bbd5a7cfb98b\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><h2></h2><p>春晚红包的价值于用户而言究竟为何呢?当初将微信红包引入春晚的导演哈文曾经介绍过自己引入新媒体互动背后的思路:“期待让每一个人都成为春晚中的一份子,不仅乐享视听盛宴,更在互动中获得快乐。”</p><p>但抛开这一番话,多一些现实场景的考量。想一想春节时,大家庭聚在一起过年的场景,吃完饭,家人们围坐在一起除了催婚催育,还能礼貌而不失尴尬地干点什么呢?</p><p>当然是大过年的,来都来了,抢红包缓解尴尬。</p><p>当每个人都在抢红包,无暇相互打扰时,已经是成年人之间最好的祝福了。</p>","source":"lsy1596797737369","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>互联网巨头,干嘛抢着发春晚红包?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n互联网巨头,干嘛抢着发春晚红包?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-11 15:28 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QwVosNwF-yBksCNEAIXBjw><strong>豹变</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>诞生于上世纪80年代春晚,不仅见证了中国社会翻天覆地的变化,还陪伴了一代又一代中国人的成长。随着春晚的不断变化,人们也开始从关注春晚的演员和节目,变成了抢互联网公司发的红包。唯一不变的是,春晚仍然在除夕夜吸引着我们的全部注意力。守在电视机前看春节联欢晚会,已经成为除夕夜中国人雷打不动的习惯。办好一场春晚,既要营造家人团圆、阖家欢乐的幸福氛围,也要有文化传承和商业价值。春晚也在变化。最近几年,关于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QwVosNwF-yBksCNEAIXBjw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/839bf4f4e995c64b50e33600e224caf6","relate_stocks":{"TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/QwVosNwF-yBksCNEAIXBjw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110863044","content_text":"诞生于上世纪80年代春晚,不仅见证了中国社会翻天覆地的变化,还陪伴了一代又一代中国人的成长。随着春晚的不断变化,人们也开始从关注春晚的演员和节目,变成了抢互联网公司发的红包。唯一不变的是,春晚仍然在除夕夜吸引着我们的全部注意力。守在电视机前看春节联欢晚会,已经成为除夕夜中国人雷打不动的习惯。办好一场春晚,既要营造家人团圆、阖家欢乐的幸福氛围,也要有文化传承和商业价值。春晚也在变化。最近几年,关于春晚,越来越多人关注的重点,不再是邀请了哪些演员,有什么节目,而是谁给电视机前的观众发红包。春晚的参与者,也早已不只是央视一家,背后更包括各大广告赞助商品牌、新近涌来的互联网公司,和全球数量最庞大的电视观众。按照各家互联网公司给出的数据,2021年春节红包将达到百亿元。这场晚会中,每个参与者的目的都不尽相同,而每年春晚台前幕后上演的种种,更像是一场暗战,各有所图。一场晚会如何保持生命力如果穿越到1983年2月12日,晚上8点打开电视机,你将会看到中国历史上第一次直播晚会,第一届央视春节联欢晚会。在这场晚会上,你可以看到相声大师侯宝林即兴表演的相声《戏剧杂谈》,演员姜昆、马季和国民女星刘晓庆演的小品。刘晓庆还演唱了当年最火的歌曲《绒花》,让观众兴奋喝彩。其中,还有一位登台献唱《小背篓》的女演员成为明星,连续23年登上春晚,她就是李谷一。一首《难忘今宵》成为每年晚会的总结陈词。2011年央视春晚,李谷一演唱《难忘今宵》。组织形式上,春晚强调“谁火请谁”,邀请的都是人民群众最喜欢的演员明星。内容上,春晚则强调笑点,因为1983年的春晚导演组觉得,过去几十年中人们的精神高度紧张,文化生活充满压抑,如今的节目应该有笑话,说段子,让每个观众都能捧腹大笑,开心过春节。导演组还觉得,春晚的目的在于把笑的权利还给老百姓,让老百姓说话。最终,节目组接到了来自全国各地的数千个电话,收到了60多万封信,观众表达了对这场晚会的满意和赞许。尽管当时中国绝大部分地区还未普及电视,但这场晚会开创的歌曲、舞蹈、语言节目,定下了未来几十年春晚的基本样式。2007年,时隔23年后,央视网发起了一项投票,评选观众最喜爱的一届春晚。最终的投票结果显示,1983年的春晚以压倒性优势排名第一,成为中国电视史上最受欢迎的节目。这些年,关于春晚的观点评论众说纷纭,很多人觉得春晚不再好笑,也有人觉得春晚不接地气,还有人认为春晚充满广告,商业气氛让年味淡了不少。每个人的说法都有各自的道理,但一个不可回避的问题在于,春晚已经陪伴中国人度过了30多个春节,这期间中国社会发生了翻天覆地的变化。从电视时代到互联网时代,每一代人都有各自的娱乐方式,想要像当年那样办一场举国联欢的晚会,已经不是一件容易的事情。如何让春晚保持生命力,满足一代又一代人的审美需求和观看习惯,成为了央视每年一次的大考。拥抱年轻化,是这些年央视春晚的一大转向和趋势。从引入互联网转播,邀请流量明星和普通人上春晚,到开启互联网话题互动,大量使用网络热词和流行语,只为博得观众一笑,背后是无数人的策划和集体努力。而在最近几年中,央视春晚找到的最佳办法是,与各大互联网公司合作。因为相比一家机构,思维活络的互联网公司更加善于组织话题和创新玩法。于是就有了各种集福卡、抢红包、直播、短视频的玩法,让春晚变得更加丰富。一份国金证券的研究报告显示,自2015年春晚开启红包模式以来,原本已经逐渐乏力的春晚收视用户规模正在逐年增加。春晚观众从2016年的10.3亿增长至2020年12.3亿人。在一个电视媒体的功能日益弱化的时代,央视春晚观众不降反增,本身已经是最大的成功。互联网公司的用户教育课互联网公司投入到一年又一年的春晚红包互动权的争夺中,核心在于,这些互联网时代的流量捕手们熟知,每一个流量、每一份注意力都弥足珍贵,且具备商业价值。最早将春晚与互联网公司联合到一起的产品,是微信。2014年微信推出微信红包,抢红包活动,吸引超过800万人参与。一年后的2015年春晚,微信登上舞台,以摇一摇推广微信支付和微信钱包,开创了春晚新玩法。而从2015年开始,所有的春节红包活动都由互联网公司包圆。互联网公司参与发红包这件事,说到底是看重了春晚巨大的流量池。互联网公司希望通过这场注意力最集中的场合,给老用户和新用户上一堂培训课。统计显示,2015年,微信发出5亿元红包,春晚微信摇一摇互动总量达110亿次,微信钱包绑卡用户突破2亿,仅依靠一次策划和几个小时的晚会,就完成了支付宝8年时间才勉强完成的业绩目标。一年之后,支付宝为了强化支付平台的霸主地位,重金拿下央视春晚红包互动权。据央视广告中心主任透露,这次春晚花费的成本,比上一年增加了五倍。这一次,支付宝创新玩法咻一咻红包,发出8亿红包,吸引3245亿次参与,虽然此举丝毫未撼动微信在社交上的地位,却很好地遏制了微信支付咄咄逼人的攻势。2016年,西安市民看春晚时用手机抢红包 。2019年,已在互联网大混战中日益衰微的百度首次参加春晚,意在推广自家的手机百度app。最终百度发出9亿元现金红包,全球观众参与互动量达208亿次,而当晚百度app日活从1.6亿直接跃升至3亿。只不过,这份春晚红包也并非想发就能发。2017年,得到app创始人罗振宇前往央视广告部,想要在春晚给得到app做个广告。但他被回绝了。广告部的领导告诉他,互联网公司上春晚标准很简单,需要日活过一亿,不然春晚广告出来的瞬间,服务器就会崩掉。事实上,哪怕是淘宝,在此前赞助春晚红包活动期间,也出现了数次宕机。负面缠身,也可能对春晚赞助商的资格有影响。2021年央视春晚红包的赞助权,原本已在2020年9月归属于拼多多。按照原计划,拼多多将在春晚五个小时内发出14亿元红包,主要目的是宣传拼多多品牌和社区团购“多多买菜项目”。拼多多的2020年很风光,市值从百亿美元迈进了千亿美元,又快速升至两千亿美元。但在2020年年末,拼多多相继发生了员工意外死亡、自杀、过劳加班、劳资纠纷问题,将这家公司挡在了春晚门外,红包合作伙伴在1月中旬被临时更换为抖音。抖音计划发20亿元红包,用来推自家新上线的抖音支付,希望降低对微信和支付宝的依赖。赞助商只剩捧个钱场对于每一家关注春晚,希望在春晚上面对全国电视观众的品牌厂商而言,每年的11月18日都是一个重要的日子。这一天的寓意是“要要要发”,来自全国各地的竞标厂商都会齐聚北京梅地亚中心,开启残酷的春晚各类赞助商竞标。竞标的玩法并非是开始就有的,早年的春晚还未意识到这一品牌的商业价值,于是1984年的春晚,济南康巴斯钟表厂将3000只石英钟送到了央视,成为赞助商。这样的方法持续了8年,屡试不爽,康巴斯钟表品牌也家喻户晓。在康巴斯之后,孔府家酒、沱牌、哈药六厂、美的等品牌,通过春晚一夜成名,美的更是前后11次拿下春晚标王,成为冠名春晚的主要厂商。但在过去十年,随着移动互联网的普及与新媒体的发展,投放在新媒体的广告开始快速蚕食电视广告的市场。与之相关的,就是传统春晚标王的衰落,春晚赞助的经验正在逐渐失效。全球最大广告主宝洁、联合利华在2015年前后,相继开始了持续数年的广告投放预算优化,计划通过削减电视广告,消除在传统媒体渠道的过度浪费,而节省下的资金,将更多用于新媒体和店内营销。联合利华保守估计,通过优化,每年将省下20亿美元的营销费用。这股风在中国消费品市场广告上的影响同样显著,自2015年以来,尼尔森等机构的监测数据显示,日化行业的传统媒体广告中,电视媒体广告呈现骤降趋势,仅当年市场投放份额便下降了三成。广电总局的监测数据显示,全国除去央视之外的头部五大卫视,近年来广告投放的年下降幅度达到5.4%。也就是说,在一场电视晚会上刷存在感,很难让观众愿意为之买单。当下的消费者一周接受的信息,可能是过去数年来接受的信息之和,品牌营销预算要花在刀刃上。而长期以来广告市场一个屡试不爽的规律则是,能让人记住的广告,特点就是不停重复。广告需要常态化展示,而非春晚展示一次就能解决所有问题。如今春晚更大的作用在于标榜和背书,属于有钱捧个场。比如,今年春晚的独家服装合作伙伴海澜之家,过去凭借电视广告上一句“男人的衣柜”爆红多年,但近年来它已经陆续减少对电视媒体渠道的投放,2020年的发力重点变成了网红直播带货。抢红包的尴尬于用户而言,发红包留下的印象,远比晚会内容,和与自己无关的企业给予晚会的广告冠名和赞助都有效。不过,人们对于这些年的春晚红包,套路大于实质的感受也非常真切。再大的红包,均摊到每个人手中,派发金额也会变得相当有限。事实上,绝大多数人也发现了其中奥秘。2015年的第一次春晚红包,最终发出1.2亿个,平均每个红包4.1元。之后的支付宝集福、淘宝红包、百度红包和快手红包,除了极少数幸运儿能够带走大奖,对于绝大多数用户而言,也就是单次的几元到几十元不等。而更多时候,用户领到的还是随着现金红包同步发出的平台充值卡,以及各种联合合作厂商品牌冠名定制的优惠券和祝福贺卡。2021年的春节红包,最大的亮点和噱头甚至已经不在春晚,而在临近春节期间,各大app已经按耐不住想要教育用的心,已经将各自应用的icon更换成特定的红包封面。当抖音官方率先更新了分20亿的红包logo之后,快手、百度、拼多多相继跟出分21亿、分22亿、分28亿的宣传。但在博得眼球这件事情上,他们还是不如乐视。在更新后图标上,乐视写下了“欠122亿”,分文不花,碾压所有对手。春晚红包的价值于用户而言究竟为何呢?当初将微信红包引入春晚的导演哈文曾经介绍过自己引入新媒体互动背后的思路:“期待让每一个人都成为春晚中的一份子,不仅乐享视听盛宴,更在互动中获得快乐。”但抛开这一番话,多一些现实场景的考量。想一想春节时,大家庭聚在一起过年的场景,吃完饭,家人们围坐在一起除了催婚催育,还能礼貌而不失尴尬地干点什么呢?当然是大过年的,来都来了,抢红包缓解尴尬。当每个人都在抢红包,无暇相互打扰时,已经是成年人之间最好的祝福了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389374329,"gmtCreate":1612704947461,"gmtModify":1703764382962,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不要放弃呀","listText":"不要放弃呀","text":"不要放弃呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389374329","repostId":"1184379788","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317444242,"gmtCreate":1612480680986,"gmtModify":1703762439786,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"搞事情","listText":"搞事情","text":"搞事情","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317444242","repostId":"1129514955","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129514955","pubTimestamp":1612480483,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129514955?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-05 07:14","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"“就地过年”将如何影响大宗商品价格?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129514955","media":"期货日报","summary":"鼠年金融市场交易仅剩四个交易日。“就地过年”将对宏观经济及相关产业产生怎样的影响?大宗商品中有哪些板块受益?行业人士认为,“就地过年”意味着今年不会出现大规模劳动力流动的现象,对消费的影响类似去年,“","content":"<div>\n<p>鼠年金融市场交易仅剩四个交易日。“就地过年”将对宏观经济及相关产业产生怎样的影响?大宗商品中有哪些板块受益?行业人士认为,“就地过年”意味着今年不会出现大规模劳动力流动的现象,对消费的影响类似去年,“宅经济”、医药防疫、在线教育娱乐是最受益的三个行业,但对生产的影响却时全新的、不同的。\n从产业链供需看,劳动密集的中游制造生产最为持续,由此带动上游基础材料需求增长,终端制造需区分产品需求的可持续性,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8SqauLUTjqaeqhCJstI-6w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"qihuoribao","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“就地过年”将如何影响大宗商品价格?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“就地过年”将如何影响大宗商品价格?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-05 07:14 北京时间 <a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8SqauLUTjqaeqhCJstI-6w><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>鼠年金融市场交易仅剩四个交易日。“就地过年”将对宏观经济及相关产业产生怎样的影响?大宗商品中有哪些板块受益?行业人士认为,“就地过年”意味着今年不会出现大规模劳动力流动的现象,对消费的影响类似去年,“宅经济”、医药防疫、在线教育娱乐是最受益的三个行业,但对生产的影响却时全新的、不同的。\n从产业链供需看,劳动密集的中游制造生产最为持续,由此带动上游基础材料需求增长,终端制造需区分产品需求的可持续性,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8SqauLUTjqaeqhCJstI-6w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a417d8f8304a2523b37c365f8d5a1a0","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/8SqauLUTjqaeqhCJstI-6w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129514955","content_text":"鼠年金融市场交易仅剩四个交易日。“就地过年”将对宏观经济及相关产业产生怎样的影响?大宗商品中有哪些板块受益?行业人士认为,“就地过年”意味着今年不会出现大规模劳动力流动的现象,对消费的影响类似去年,“宅经济”、医药防疫、在线教育娱乐是最受益的三个行业,但对生产的影响却时全新的、不同的。\n从产业链供需看,劳动密集的中游制造生产最为持续,由此带动上游基础材料需求增长,终端制造需区分产品需求的可持续性,按受益幅度,依次包括中游制造(机械、建筑)>基础材料(采掘、有色、钢铁、化纤)>终端制造(电子设备、家具)。\n从用工人数来看,建筑业最受益,然后是基础材料、采掘、有色、钢铁行业。受影响最大的是以服务业为主的第三产业。尽管金融业和房地产业几乎不会受到“就地过年”政策的影响,但住宿餐饮、交通运输、零售批发、信息软件和租赁等服务业都将受到不同程度的影响。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317587678,"gmtCreate":1612455578594,"gmtModify":1703762252950,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲呀","listText":"冲呀","text":"冲呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317587678","repostId":"1197633592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197633592","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612451567,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197633592?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-04 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"荔枝大涨近60%,股价本周已翻三倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197633592","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成","content":"<p>周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317584545,"gmtCreate":1612455551187,"gmtModify":1703762251235,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛","listText":"牛","text":"牛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317584545","repostId":"1197633592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197633592","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612451567,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197633592?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-04 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"荔枝大涨近60%,股价本周已翻三倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197633592","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成","content":"<p>周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。</p>\n<p>近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314011379,"gmtCreate":1612279812791,"gmtModify":1703759886668,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心] 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11:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"逼空大战引发余震,华尔街警告本周市场变数","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167492371","media":"Wind","summary":"香港万得通讯社报道,在美股“逼空”行情过后,本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点:亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩,而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓,或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市","content":"<p>香港万得通讯社报道,在美股“逼空”行情过后,本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点:亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩,而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓,或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。</p>\n<p>市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”</p>\n<p>在周二市场收盘后,谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快,原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩的增长。华尔街预期,不计流量收购成本的销售额增长18%,至441.6亿美元,而第三季度的增长为15%。</p>\n<p>摩根大通(JPMorgan)分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)在上周的一份报告中写道:“我们对搜索引擎营销商(SEM)的检查显示,搜索支出从3季度加速至4季度。”他补充说:“某些垂直行业受到疫情的严重影响,其中包括我们认为在疫情之前占收入10-15%的旅行,由于复苏和相关停工,整个4季度仍可能受到挑战,” “我们相信,随着消费者继续接种疫苗,这些垂直领域的复苏将持续,从而推动广告收入的进一步增长。”</p>\n<p>同时,受疫情期间在线购物的需求推动,电子商务巨头亚马逊很可能会报告另一个惊人的季度。该公司可能将发布其第一个季度收入超过1000亿美元的财报,这将使2020年全年收入达到惊人的3790亿美元。</p>\n<p>瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师斯蒂芬·朱(Stephen Ju)在上周的一份报告中写道:“全球消费者越来越依赖线上购物,这对亚马逊具有以下近乎长期的潜在影响:1、2021年及以后的GMV (总商品价值)估计值有上升空间; 2、更高的购买频率增强了亚马逊的客户获取/留存成本/品牌价值。”</p>\n<p>但是,尽管收入在第四季度和假日购物旺季销售可能再次飙升,但亚马逊上一季度也增加了支出,以维持业务增长并在疫情期间提高员工的安全性。亚马逊表示,考虑到与疫情相关的成本约为40亿美元,其第四季度的营业收入将在10亿美元至45亿美元之间。相比之下,2019年第四季度的营业收入为39亿美元。</p>\n<p>周五,美国劳工部1月份的就业报告很可能表明,在12月就业人数下降之后,经济将在2021年初恢复增加的就业人数。Capital Economics高级美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)在周四的报告中称:“我们估计1月份非农就业人数基本没有变化,但近期的财政支持和新病毒病例的回落表明劳动力市场将很快恢复。”</p>\n<p>逼空大战或引发“余震”,华尔街警告抛售风险</p>\n<p>亚马逊和Alphabet的季报收益,1月份就业报告以及华盛顿对刺激政策的讨论可能对未来一周的市场都很重要,但没有什么比散户投资者推动的“轧空行情”更引起市场关注。</p>\n<p>高盛警告称,随着散户投资者以创纪录的数量进入市场,交易热潮还将持续,而逼空行情甚至可能给市场带来大幅回调。该投资银行在周五晚间的一份报告中写道:“根据高盛总理服务部的数据,本周是自2009年2月以来最大的活跃对冲基金减仓。基金为弥补空头亏损卖出了多头头寸,涵盖了各个领域。”</p>\n<p>“尽管进行了积极的去杠杆化,对冲基金的净值和按市值计的总风险敞口仍然接近有记录以来的最高水平,这表明存在由头寸驱动的抛售的持续风险。”高盛分析师写道:“上周的情况表明,市场一小部分不可持续的过度投机,有可能引发一系列多米诺骨牌效应,并造成更广泛的动荡。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee6f9b7cef1d9e60efd3c019a96722a\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外,尽管近期美股市场的轧空行为主要集中在小市值个股上,但高盛分析师表示,大量的轧空将导致投资者减少其他个股的多头头寸,以弥补空头上的亏损,而这将会使市场波动蔓延至至市值较大的个股。近年来美股低成交量和高集中度的交易特征越来越明显,这增加了一只基金的清盘可能在市场上滚雪球的风险。</p>\n<p>另一方面,高盛承认“散户交易的繁荣可以继续”,因为“大量的美国家庭现金应继续推动交易的繁荣”。当前5万亿美元规模的货币基金市场中,超过50%是由家庭单位持有,较疫情前增长了1万亿美元。如果短期轧空行情继续维持,可能对资本市场的未来产生深远影响。</p>\n<p>但除了高盛的警告声以外,多家投行并不认为近期市场的轧空行情会将风险扩散到整个市场。根据巴克莱银行的统计,卖空交易总额为8000亿美元,约占美国股票总市值的2%,这表明卖空者还没有扩大规模。大量做空的公司(利息占其流通股的20%以上)有400亿美元的股票被做空,占全部看跌押注的5%。</p>\n<p>巴克莱银行的Deshpande在上周五的一份报告中提到GameStop的股票行情时写道:“尽管卖空始于GME,但似乎正在向更广泛的股票范围蔓延。”“尽管我们预计会出现更多的去杠杆化,但最终问题的规模似乎相当有限。”</p>\n<p>此外,虽然标准普尔500指数上周下跌了3%以上,但交易员们认为大盘走势井然有序。对于包括杜布拉科夫•拉科斯布哈斯在内的摩根大通策略师来说,这次下跌可能只是“短暂的技术性下跌”。分析师在周五的报告中写道,随着企业收益改善和美国消费者走强,这次回落是增加股市的又一个机会,尤其是那些与经济复苏相关的股票。</p>","source":"wind","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n逼空大战引发余震,华尔街警告本周市场变数\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-01 11:15 北京时间 <a href=https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat><strong>Wind</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>香港万得通讯社报道,在美股“逼空”行情过后,本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点:亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩,而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓,或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”\n在周二市场收盘后,谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快,原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c56ea9f4571ab8517325db0c66a1a81","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://snap.windin.com/ns/findsnap.php?code=CE988E7E6432&sourcename=snap.windin.com&ad=0&sitetype=1&sourcetype=1&id=523061276&terminaltype=wft.m&device=ios&version=21.1.1&show=wft&share=wechat","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167492371","content_text":"香港万得通讯社报道,在美股“逼空”行情过后,本周交易员又迎来财报季的重要节点:亚马逊及谷歌母公司Alphabet将公布业绩,而1月非农就业数据也将于周五揭晓,或成为短期逼空大战以外的最大“变数”。\n市场本周迎接逼空大战以外的最大“变数”\n在周二市场收盘后,谷歌母公司Alphabet和亚马逊都将发布报告。分析师预期Alphabet四季度收入增长较三季度加快,原因是广告客户运营条件的改善有助于年底业绩的增长。华尔街预期,不计流量收购成本的销售额增长18%,至441.6亿美元,而第三季度的增长为15%。\n摩根大通(JPMorgan)分析师道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)在上周的一份报告中写道:“我们对搜索引擎营销商(SEM)的检查显示,搜索支出从3季度加速至4季度。”他补充说:“某些垂直行业受到疫情的严重影响,其中包括我们认为在疫情之前占收入10-15%的旅行,由于复苏和相关停工,整个4季度仍可能受到挑战,” “我们相信,随着消费者继续接种疫苗,这些垂直领域的复苏将持续,从而推动广告收入的进一步增长。”\n同时,受疫情期间在线购物的需求推动,电子商务巨头亚马逊很可能会报告另一个惊人的季度。该公司可能将发布其第一个季度收入超过1000亿美元的财报,这将使2020年全年收入达到惊人的3790亿美元。\n瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)分析师斯蒂芬·朱(Stephen Ju)在上周的一份报告中写道:“全球消费者越来越依赖线上购物,这对亚马逊具有以下近乎长期的潜在影响:1、2021年及以后的GMV (总商品价值)估计值有上升空间; 2、更高的购买频率增强了亚马逊的客户获取/留存成本/品牌价值。”\n但是,尽管收入在第四季度和假日购物旺季销售可能再次飙升,但亚马逊上一季度也增加了支出,以维持业务增长并在疫情期间提高员工的安全性。亚马逊表示,考虑到与疫情相关的成本约为40亿美元,其第四季度的营业收入将在10亿美元至45亿美元之间。相比之下,2019年第四季度的营业收入为39亿美元。\n周五,美国劳工部1月份的就业报告很可能表明,在12月就业人数下降之后,经济将在2021年初恢复增加的就业人数。Capital Economics高级美国经济学家安德鲁·亨特(Andrew Hunter)在周四的报告中称:“我们估计1月份非农就业人数基本没有变化,但近期的财政支持和新病毒病例的回落表明劳动力市场将很快恢复。”\n逼空大战或引发“余震”,华尔街警告抛售风险\n亚马逊和Alphabet的季报收益,1月份就业报告以及华盛顿对刺激政策的讨论可能对未来一周的市场都很重要,但没有什么比散户投资者推动的“轧空行情”更引起市场关注。\n高盛警告称,随着散户投资者以创纪录的数量进入市场,交易热潮还将持续,而逼空行情甚至可能给市场带来大幅回调。该投资银行在周五晚间的一份报告中写道:“根据高盛总理服务部的数据,本周是自2009年2月以来最大的活跃对冲基金减仓。基金为弥补空头亏损卖出了多头头寸,涵盖了各个领域。”\n“尽管进行了积极的去杠杆化,对冲基金的净值和按市值计的总风险敞口仍然接近有记录以来的最高水平,这表明存在由头寸驱动的抛售的持续风险。”高盛分析师写道:“上周的情况表明,市场一小部分不可持续的过度投机,有可能引发一系列多米诺骨牌效应,并造成更广泛的动荡。”\n\n此外,尽管近期美股市场的轧空行为主要集中在小市值个股上,但高盛分析师表示,大量的轧空将导致投资者减少其他个股的多头头寸,以弥补空头上的亏损,而这将会使市场波动蔓延至至市值较大的个股。近年来美股低成交量和高集中度的交易特征越来越明显,这增加了一只基金的清盘可能在市场上滚雪球的风险。\n另一方面,高盛承认“散户交易的繁荣可以继续”,因为“大量的美国家庭现金应继续推动交易的繁荣”。当前5万亿美元规模的货币基金市场中,超过50%是由家庭单位持有,较疫情前增长了1万亿美元。如果短期轧空行情继续维持,可能对资本市场的未来产生深远影响。\n但除了高盛的警告声以外,多家投行并不认为近期市场的轧空行情会将风险扩散到整个市场。根据巴克莱银行的统计,卖空交易总额为8000亿美元,约占美国股票总市值的2%,这表明卖空者还没有扩大规模。大量做空的公司(利息占其流通股的20%以上)有400亿美元的股票被做空,占全部看跌押注的5%。\n巴克莱银行的Deshpande在上周五的一份报告中提到GameStop的股票行情时写道:“尽管卖空始于GME,但似乎正在向更广泛的股票范围蔓延。”“尽管我们预计会出现更多的去杠杆化,但最终问题的规模似乎相当有限。”\n此外,虽然标准普尔500指数上周下跌了3%以上,但交易员们认为大盘走势井然有序。对于包括杜布拉科夫•拉科斯布哈斯在内的摩根大通策略师来说,这次下跌可能只是“短暂的技术性下跌”。分析师在周五的报告中写道,随着企业收益改善和美国消费者走强,这次回落是增加股市的又一个机会,尤其是那些与经济复苏相关的股票。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315124266,"gmtCreate":1612224443155,"gmtModify":1703758967495,"author":{"id":"3573434885207532","authorId":"3573434885207532","name":"赢赢啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf444c2a50e2ccec42c53a14c8d48b8","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573434885207532","authorIdStr":"3573434885207532"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"分享持仓冲啊","listText":"分享持仓冲啊","text":"分享持仓冲啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3965b853ec46f2088158cf0ba26714","width":"1125","height":"3660"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315124266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}