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佬鼠
2021-07-06
$滴滴(DIDI)$
成本16,只要不退市,我抓到半年都可以
佬鼠
2021-07-07
$滴滴(DIDI)$
他们已经很辛苦护盘了,我为他们点个赞
佬鼠
2021-10-15
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
不卖就不亏,仓位可能对某些人来说虽然不多,但是对一名学生来说就。。。。。。
佬鼠
2021-06-18
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
还在犹豫的股友,下个星期或者今天的下半场就看不到11块这个价位了。你们认为呢?
佬鼠
2021-06-22
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
好戏在后头,卖飞的别哭,看着我们登月吧[看涨] [看涨] [看涨]
佬鼠
2021-07-26
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
没有不赚钱股票,只有拿不住的韭菜
佬鼠
2021-06-14
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
不慌,今晚再加仓
佬鼠
2021-06-29
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
我相信如果WISH突然暴涨到15.50的话,再次炸爆空头,WISH TO THE MOON了,看还谁敢做空这WISH热门股!WISH加油💪💪💪
佬鼠
2021-10-05
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
[看涨]
佬鼠
2021-07-07
$滴滴(DIDI)$
我承认自己也是韭菜,可是买了didi“暂时”亏不少,可是相信会起来的,决定做个要赚大钱的韭菜!
佬鼠
2021-07-02
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
$22等你
佬鼠
2021-06-12
$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$
淡定,下星期起飞
佬鼠
2021-06-21
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
[看涨] [看涨] [看涨]
佬鼠
2021-08-20
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
老虎是中概股?不是吧
佬鼠
2021-07-26
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
难道是先跌10个点,然后收盘涨10个点?没有不可能的操作,只有你想不到的结果
佬鼠
2021-09-08
$全球星(GSAT)$
追高的保重
佬鼠
2021-07-08
$滴滴(DIDI)$
今天先冲个13岁[看涨]
佬鼠
2021-06-16
$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$
拿稳稳,不要慌
佬鼠
2021-02-24
$全球星(GSAT)$
准备起飞
佬鼠
2021-03-10
$InspireMD Inc.(NSPR)$
其它都慢慢继续爬,你却还在睡
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814029858","repostId":"1172495574","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172495574","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点,观察市场,提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629377186,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172495574?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 20:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎盘前观察:人类为什么需要打“第3针”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172495574","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"一年两针,会是常态。","content":"<p><b>白宫召开“第3针”发布会——人类为什么需要打“第3针”?</b></p>\n<p>【相关阅读】<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1149820749\" target=\"_blank\">盘前:初请失业金数据好于预期,热门中概股普跌</a></p>\n<p>美国是全球第一个承认疫苗效果会下降。</p>\n<p>从上周开始吹风“第3针”,到昨天召开白宫记者发布会“第3针”,只有不到一周的时间。这足以证明美国当下疫情的强势反弹,逼得美国官方只能迅速推进“第3针”。目前FDA和CDC还没有官宣“第3针”,不过拜登领导下的美国政府,各个部门之间相互合作,一致性很强,不会出现相互打架的现象。FDA和CDC的官宣,很快会到。</p>\n<p>在美国召开“第3针”发布会,是双刃剑——愿意打疫苗的人保护会更好,但是不愿意打疫苗的人会更加不愿意打。美国现在的群体接种短板,还是在于保守派人群不愿意接种。连“第1针”不愿意打——因为保守派人群怀疑是政府阴谋要把芯片植入人体内,现在看到“第3针”又推出,会更加坚定不打的决心。越是政府鼓励的事情,就越要反对,这个现象在美国尤其显著。但有无数实证表明,即使打了2针疫苗的人,如果扔进一群没有打疫苗的人群中,仍旧会有很高的染病风险,最新中招的就是德州州长。为了愿意打针的老百姓的安全,现在不得不推出“第3针”。本来全美一人2针能够解决的疫情,最后被迫变成了有的人1针不打,有的人要打3针。</p>\n<p>这个发布会邀请了4名政客和专家,其中1名是Fauci。能够看出来,Fauci虽然有拜登的大力支持,但拜登政府会刻意淡化他的个人色彩。关于Fauci,美国社会有很多争论,核心原因是Fauci有个别言论前后不符合——比方说关于戴口罩的态度。不过,这个问题不在于Fauci,而是在于人类本身。</p>\n<p>人类存在的几百万年时间,一直都“崇尚”某种精神。从原来的“神”到现在的“科学”,人类的精神寄托始终在一个抽象的东西上面。但“科学”最精髓的地方,在于它敢于认错,修正自己(“神”的领域是不会修正自己)。牛顿的三大定律,纠正了地心说日心说;爱因斯坦的相对论,又纠正了牛顿的三大定律。Fauci作为“科学”的代言人,如果期待他不犯错,这是不可能的。全世界任何一个科学家都会犯错,特别是在新冠疫情爆发的时候,大家都是一无所知。但是Fauci能够修正自己的错误,这就足以证明他是一名合格的科学家。只可惜,人类总是期望一个万能的人引领世界。</p>\n<p>回到这个发布会本身,最核心的要点,和上次我分析“第3针”几乎一模一样。下图左边是昨天的白宫PPT内容,右边是我8月9日的盘后点评,我保证我事先没有看过白宫的PPT。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1e55923ecb20b2fe199b9665a8df699\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除此之外,这份PPT还总结了不同研究对于疫苗效果衰退的研究。从感染来看,3-6个月之后,mRNA疫苗的保护效果衰减明显(下左);从住院重病来看,3-6个月之后,mRNA疫苗的保护效果还行(下右)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8076b9a2f691614799301c46f3adfba8\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>关于Delta变种,这个PPT引用的研究比较少,但是承认了两点:(1)疫苗对于Delta变种的有效性大幅下降(一个研究显示从92%下降到64%);(2)更高水平的抗体,可能对于Delta变种更有效。注意,这个PPT从头到尾,包括演讲人的发言,用的词语都是“可能”。这一方面是出于科学的严谨,一方面也算承认目前疫苗对于Delta变种效果不好。</p>\n<p>总结一下,为什么要打“第3针”?首先是因为抗体水平会自然下降,其次是疫苗对Delta变种效果不好。</p>\n<p>通过这个发布会,我们还需要明白。</p>\n<p>1,和疫苗本身技术无关,人体内的新冠抗体永远会自然下降。这可能是人类基因的一个缺陷。不光是新冠抗体,流感抗体在我们体内,也会自然下降。如果流感疫苗研发了这么久,都找不到一劳永逸的疫苗,那么新冠疫苗同样很有可能也找不到一劳永逸的疫苗。</p>\n<p>2,目前的疫苗不是针对Delta变种开发,所以效果衰减的很明显。医药公司很可能会开放专门针对的Delta变种的疫苗,配合原来疫苗成分,变成“2价新冠疫苗”,但需要时间。可能“2价新冠疫苗”刚出来,新的变种又来了,然后就是“3价新冠疫苗”的研发。</p>\n<p>3,因为找不到一劳永逸的疫苗,所以好的疫苗就是初始抗体水平更高的疫苗。mRNA和灭活疫苗都有抗体衰减的问题,也都会有第3针,第4针的后续。但是,人类要和病毒共存的关键,就在于如何找到一个疫苗补针时间更长的疫苗。如果打一个疫苗1个月之后就要补针,那算不上合格的疫苗。合格的疫苗,应该将补针时间拖到6个月以上。</p>\n<p>一年两针,会是常态。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎盘前观察:人类为什么需要打“第3针”?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-19 20:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>白宫召开“第3针”发布会——人类为什么需要打“第3针”?</b></p>\n<p>【相关阅读】<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1149820749\" target=\"_blank\">盘前:初请失业金数据好于预期,热门中概股普跌</a></p>\n<p>美国是全球第一个承认疫苗效果会下降。</p>\n<p>从上周开始吹风“第3针”,到昨天召开白宫记者发布会“第3针”,只有不到一周的时间。这足以证明美国当下疫情的强势反弹,逼得美国官方只能迅速推进“第3针”。目前FDA和CDC还没有官宣“第3针”,不过拜登领导下的美国政府,各个部门之间相互合作,一致性很强,不会出现相互打架的现象。FDA和CDC的官宣,很快会到。</p>\n<p>在美国召开“第3针”发布会,是双刃剑——愿意打疫苗的人保护会更好,但是不愿意打疫苗的人会更加不愿意打。美国现在的群体接种短板,还是在于保守派人群不愿意接种。连“第1针”不愿意打——因为保守派人群怀疑是政府阴谋要把芯片植入人体内,现在看到“第3针”又推出,会更加坚定不打的决心。越是政府鼓励的事情,就越要反对,这个现象在美国尤其显著。但有无数实证表明,即使打了2针疫苗的人,如果扔进一群没有打疫苗的人群中,仍旧会有很高的染病风险,最新中招的就是德州州长。为了愿意打针的老百姓的安全,现在不得不推出“第3针”。本来全美一人2针能够解决的疫情,最后被迫变成了有的人1针不打,有的人要打3针。</p>\n<p>这个发布会邀请了4名政客和专家,其中1名是Fauci。能够看出来,Fauci虽然有拜登的大力支持,但拜登政府会刻意淡化他的个人色彩。关于Fauci,美国社会有很多争论,核心原因是Fauci有个别言论前后不符合——比方说关于戴口罩的态度。不过,这个问题不在于Fauci,而是在于人类本身。</p>\n<p>人类存在的几百万年时间,一直都“崇尚”某种精神。从原来的“神”到现在的“科学”,人类的精神寄托始终在一个抽象的东西上面。但“科学”最精髓的地方,在于它敢于认错,修正自己(“神”的领域是不会修正自己)。牛顿的三大定律,纠正了地心说日心说;爱因斯坦的相对论,又纠正了牛顿的三大定律。Fauci作为“科学”的代言人,如果期待他不犯错,这是不可能的。全世界任何一个科学家都会犯错,特别是在新冠疫情爆发的时候,大家都是一无所知。但是Fauci能够修正自己的错误,这就足以证明他是一名合格的科学家。只可惜,人类总是期望一个万能的人引领世界。</p>\n<p>回到这个发布会本身,最核心的要点,和上次我分析“第3针”几乎一模一样。下图左边是昨天的白宫PPT内容,右边是我8月9日的盘后点评,我保证我事先没有看过白宫的PPT。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1e55923ecb20b2fe199b9665a8df699\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>除此之外,这份PPT还总结了不同研究对于疫苗效果衰退的研究。从感染来看,3-6个月之后,mRNA疫苗的保护效果衰减明显(下左);从住院重病来看,3-6个月之后,mRNA疫苗的保护效果还行(下右)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8076b9a2f691614799301c46f3adfba8\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>关于Delta变种,这个PPT引用的研究比较少,但是承认了两点:(1)疫苗对于Delta变种的有效性大幅下降(一个研究显示从92%下降到64%);(2)更高水平的抗体,可能对于Delta变种更有效。注意,这个PPT从头到尾,包括演讲人的发言,用的词语都是“可能”。这一方面是出于科学的严谨,一方面也算承认目前疫苗对于Delta变种效果不好。</p>\n<p>总结一下,为什么要打“第3针”?首先是因为抗体水平会自然下降,其次是疫苗对Delta变种效果不好。</p>\n<p>通过这个发布会,我们还需要明白。</p>\n<p>1,和疫苗本身技术无关,人体内的新冠抗体永远会自然下降。这可能是人类基因的一个缺陷。不光是新冠抗体,流感抗体在我们体内,也会自然下降。如果流感疫苗研发了这么久,都找不到一劳永逸的疫苗,那么新冠疫苗同样很有可能也找不到一劳永逸的疫苗。</p>\n<p>2,目前的疫苗不是针对Delta变种开发,所以效果衰减的很明显。医药公司很可能会开放专门针对的Delta变种的疫苗,配合原来疫苗成分,变成“2价新冠疫苗”,但需要时间。可能“2价新冠疫苗”刚出来,新的变种又来了,然后就是“3价新冠疫苗”的研发。</p>\n<p>3,因为找不到一劳永逸的疫苗,所以好的疫苗就是初始抗体水平更高的疫苗。mRNA和灭活疫苗都有抗体衰减的问题,也都会有第3针,第4针的后续。但是,人类要和病毒共存的关键,就在于如何找到一个疫苗补针时间更长的疫苗。如果打一个疫苗1个月之后就要补针,那算不上合格的疫苗。合格的疫苗,应该将补针时间拖到6个月以上。</p>\n<p>一年两针,会是常态。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172495574","content_text":"白宫召开“第3针”发布会——人类为什么需要打“第3针”?\n【相关阅读】盘前:初请失业金数据好于预期,热门中概股普跌\n美国是全球第一个承认疫苗效果会下降。\n从上周开始吹风“第3针”,到昨天召开白宫记者发布会“第3针”,只有不到一周的时间。这足以证明美国当下疫情的强势反弹,逼得美国官方只能迅速推进“第3针”。目前FDA和CDC还没有官宣“第3针”,不过拜登领导下的美国政府,各个部门之间相互合作,一致性很强,不会出现相互打架的现象。FDA和CDC的官宣,很快会到。\n在美国召开“第3针”发布会,是双刃剑——愿意打疫苗的人保护会更好,但是不愿意打疫苗的人会更加不愿意打。美国现在的群体接种短板,还是在于保守派人群不愿意接种。连“第1针”不愿意打——因为保守派人群怀疑是政府阴谋要把芯片植入人体内,现在看到“第3针”又推出,会更加坚定不打的决心。越是政府鼓励的事情,就越要反对,这个现象在美国尤其显著。但有无数实证表明,即使打了2针疫苗的人,如果扔进一群没有打疫苗的人群中,仍旧会有很高的染病风险,最新中招的就是德州州长。为了愿意打针的老百姓的安全,现在不得不推出“第3针”。本来全美一人2针能够解决的疫情,最后被迫变成了有的人1针不打,有的人要打3针。\n这个发布会邀请了4名政客和专家,其中1名是Fauci。能够看出来,Fauci虽然有拜登的大力支持,但拜登政府会刻意淡化他的个人色彩。关于Fauci,美国社会有很多争论,核心原因是Fauci有个别言论前后不符合——比方说关于戴口罩的态度。不过,这个问题不在于Fauci,而是在于人类本身。\n人类存在的几百万年时间,一直都“崇尚”某种精神。从原来的“神”到现在的“科学”,人类的精神寄托始终在一个抽象的东西上面。但“科学”最精髓的地方,在于它敢于认错,修正自己(“神”的领域是不会修正自己)。牛顿的三大定律,纠正了地心说日心说;爱因斯坦的相对论,又纠正了牛顿的三大定律。Fauci作为“科学”的代言人,如果期待他不犯错,这是不可能的。全世界任何一个科学家都会犯错,特别是在新冠疫情爆发的时候,大家都是一无所知。但是Fauci能够修正自己的错误,这就足以证明他是一名合格的科学家。只可惜,人类总是期望一个万能的人引领世界。\n回到这个发布会本身,最核心的要点,和上次我分析“第3针”几乎一模一样。下图左边是昨天的白宫PPT内容,右边是我8月9日的盘后点评,我保证我事先没有看过白宫的PPT。\n\n除此之外,这份PPT还总结了不同研究对于疫苗效果衰退的研究。从感染来看,3-6个月之后,mRNA疫苗的保护效果衰减明显(下左);从住院重病来看,3-6个月之后,mRNA疫苗的保护效果还行(下右)。\n\n关于Delta变种,这个PPT引用的研究比较少,但是承认了两点:(1)疫苗对于Delta变种的有效性大幅下降(一个研究显示从92%下降到64%);(2)更高水平的抗体,可能对于Delta变种更有效。注意,这个PPT从头到尾,包括演讲人的发言,用的词语都是“可能”。这一方面是出于科学的严谨,一方面也算承认目前疫苗对于Delta变种效果不好。\n总结一下,为什么要打“第3针”?首先是因为抗体水平会自然下降,其次是疫苗对Delta变种效果不好。\n通过这个发布会,我们还需要明白。\n1,和疫苗本身技术无关,人体内的新冠抗体永远会自然下降。这可能是人类基因的一个缺陷。不光是新冠抗体,流感抗体在我们体内,也会自然下降。如果流感疫苗研发了这么久,都找不到一劳永逸的疫苗,那么新冠疫苗同样很有可能也找不到一劳永逸的疫苗。\n2,目前的疫苗不是针对Delta变种开发,所以效果衰减的很明显。医药公司很可能会开放专门针对的Delta变种的疫苗,配合原来疫苗成分,变成“2价新冠疫苗”,但需要时间。可能“2价新冠疫苗”刚出来,新的变种又来了,然后就是“3价新冠疫苗”的研发。\n3,因为找不到一劳永逸的疫苗,所以好的疫苗就是初始抗体水平更高的疫苗。mRNA和灭活疫苗都有抗体衰减的问题,也都会有第3针,第4针的后续。但是,人类要和病毒共存的关键,就在于如何找到一个疫苗补针时间更长的疫苗。如果打一个疫苗1个月之后就要补针,那算不上合格的疫苗。合格的疫苗,应该将补针时间拖到6个月以上。\n一年两针,会是常态。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838679647,"gmtCreate":1629405561289,"gmtModify":1631890719009,"author":{"id":"3572494135561408","authorId":"3572494135561408","name":"佬鼠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34a0777f166520de71398b99cc608ae","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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