Chowws的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Chowws

Chowws

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0勋章

2021-03-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$晕倒了

2021-03-06

明白了谢谢🙏

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-09

厉害👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-30

$老虎证券(TIGR)$😂

2021-06-04

[开心]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-17

$老虎证券(TIGR)$[微笑]

2021-03-17

$老虎证券(TIGR)$虎哥加油😂

2021-02-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$再接再厉

2021-03-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$[捂脸]

2021-02-13

$老虎证券(TIGR)$再接再厉

2021-07-26

期待

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-05

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-11

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-04

[流泪]

美股汽车股集体逆市上涨，特斯拉独自下跌

2021-05-06

//@安妮1022:👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-21

厉害👍

手机巨头为何要造车？

2021-06-11

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-04

棒👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-12

收到了👌

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-11

加油吧！

美国1.9万亿美元刺激法案通过，是福是祸？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>的LTPO面板，增加电池容量以保证续航。</p>\n<p>另外，还有消息称本次发布会上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>还准备了新的惊喜，其就是AirPods 3，其订单被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">立讯精密</a>和歌尔声学共同分享，由于越南疫情影响，第一批耳机主要在中国工厂组装完成。</p>\n<p>回到AirPods 3上，其外形与上一代截然不同，更多参考AirPods 2的设计，耳机柄会更短，功能方面包括对空间音频的支持等，价格维持在150美元以下。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/498b9e29803327f58fe53cf5cace4124\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"342\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"kkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>iPhone 13发布时间曝光：9月下旬，依然线上举办</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\niPhone 13发布时间曝光：9月下旬，依然线上举办\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 11:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.mydrivers.com/1/771/771803.htm><strong>快科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据外媒最新报道称，苹果今年并不会推迟iPhone 13的发布，其依然会是在线上举行。\n报道中提到，由于员工不能全部回归Apple Park，iPhone 13发布会自然也无法线下举行。去年，受到全球疫情影响，iPhone 12被推迟至 10 月，今年iPhone 13 发布会则不会被推迟，依然是9月下旬。\n据供应链最新消息称，目前富士康正处在iPhone新品的量产备货期，通过招聘渠道了解到，手机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.mydrivers.com/1/771/771803.htm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9ecca56756105c4a95db1b61ed5fc9","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://news.mydrivers.com/1/771/771803.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122831965","content_text":"据外媒最新报道称，苹果今年并不会推迟iPhone 13的发布，其依然会是在线上举行。\n报道中提到，由于员工不能全部回归Apple Park，iPhone 13发布会自然也无法线下举行。去年，受到全球疫情影响，iPhone 12被推迟至 10 月，今年iPhone 13 发布会则不会被推迟，依然是9月下旬。\n据供应链最新消息称，目前富士康正处在iPhone新品的量产备货期，通过招聘渠道了解到，手机园区一直在持续招工，并且返费（相当于奖金）还在上涨。7月24日起，郑州港区富士康IDPBG事业群（生产iPhone）返费模式涨价，基本工资1900元加加班费，打卡55天在职90天最高返费10000元。\n在代工方面，外媒称富士康仍将承担大部分业务，包括全部的iPhone 13 Pro Max、68%的iPhone 13和接近60%的iPhone 13 Pro。和硕则是组装全部的iPhone 13 mini，以及32%的iPhone 13。余下40%的iPhone 13 Pro，有消息称将交由立讯精密。\n为了保证产能能够顺利进行，据悉上述代工厂都在拼命提高奖金，除了郑州富士康外，和硕旗下的上海昌硕工厂近期也在其官网宣布提高员工推荐奖金，最高同样高达8500元人民币。\n根据目前了解，iPhone 13全部机型将全系采用A15处理器，刘海尺寸较上一代有所减少，Pro系列依然会独占LiDAR激光雷达，屏幕刷新率会提升至120Hz，采用三星的LTPO面板，增加电池容量以保证续航。\n另外，还有消息称本次发布会上，苹果还准备了新的惊喜，其就是AirPods 3，其订单被立讯精密和歌尔声学共同分享，由于越南疫情影响，第一批耳机主要在中国工厂组装完成。\n回到AirPods 3上，其外形与上一代截然不同，更多参考AirPods 2的设计，耳机柄会更短，功能方面包括对空间音频的支持等，价格维持在150美元以下。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153008890,"gmtCreate":1624983051910,"gmtModify":1631890099462,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>😂","listText":"<a 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21:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘：三大指数高开，新东方、好未来涨超11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182413920","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月10日，美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.50%，纳指涨0.16%，标普500指数涨0.34%。美国5月CPI同比增长5%，创2008年来最大增幅，表明通胀压力继续增大。上周初请失业救济人数降至37","content":"<p>6月10日，美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.50%，纳指涨0.16%，标普500指数涨0.34%。美国5月CPI同比增长5%，创2008年来最大增幅，表明通胀压力继续增大。上周初请失业救济人数降至37.6万。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/410500cd884d76d3827d2126b75f3f73\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>中概教育股普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨近10%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">维视图像</a>(MVIS.O)高开7%，该股将纳入罗素2000指数。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>绩后低开近6%，Q1净利润稍逊预期。</p>\n<p>Ocugen盘初大跌20%，公司宣布不再就Covaxin疫苗申请紧急使用授权（EUA），因美国食品药品监督管理局要求公司递交更多材料。</p>\n<p>RH涨超12%，公司一季度业绩大超市场预期，并提高了全年指引。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：三大指数高开，新东方、好未来涨超11%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：三大指数高开，新东方、好未来涨超11%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-10 21:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月10日，美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.50%，纳指涨0.16%，标普500指数涨0.34%。美国5月CPI同比增长5%，创2008年来最大增幅，表明通胀压力继续增大。上周初请失业救济人数降至37.6万。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/410500cd884d76d3827d2126b75f3f73\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>中概教育股普涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超11%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨近10%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">维视图像</a>(MVIS.O)高开7%，该股将纳入罗素2000指数。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>绩后低开近6%，Q1净利润稍逊预期。</p>\n<p>Ocugen盘初大跌20%，公司宣布不再就Covaxin疫苗申请紧急使用授权（EUA），因美国食品药品监督管理局要求公司递交更多材料。</p>\n<p>RH涨超12%，公司一季度业绩大超市场预期，并提高了全年指引。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","EDU":"新东方",".DJI":"道琼斯","09901":"新东方-S","TAL":"好未来",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182413920","content_text":"6月10日，美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.50%，纳指涨0.16%，标普500指数涨0.34%。美国5月CPI同比增长5%，创2008年来最大增幅，表明通胀压力继续增大。上周初请失业救济人数降至37.6万。\n\n中概教育股普涨，新东方、好未来涨超11%，高途涨近10%。\n维视图像(MVIS.O)高开7%，该股将纳入罗素2000指数。\n游戏驿站绩后低开近6%，Q1净利润稍逊预期。\nOcugen盘初大跌20%，公司宣布不再就Covaxin疫苗申请紧急使用授权（EUA），因美国食品药品监督管理局要求公司递交更多材料。\nRH涨超12%，公司一季度业绩大超市场预期，并提高了全年指引。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183704190,"gmtCreate":1623347793410,"gmtModify":1631890099473,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183704190","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180397839,"gmtCreate":1623180425521,"gmtModify":1631890099481,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"厉害👍","listText":"厉害👍","text":"厉害👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180397839","repostId":"2141665322","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2141665322","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623166521,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2141665322?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-08 23:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"掌门教育登陆纽交所，开盘涨超54%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2141665322","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月8日，掌门教育登陆纽交所，开盘涨超54%，报17.74美元。其IPO定价为11.5美元/ADS。今日，掌门教育宣布，其首次公开发行定价为每ADS 11.50美元，发行股数为362.3万股，总发行规","content":"<p>6月8日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">掌门教育</a>登陆纽交所，开盘涨超54%，报17.74美元。其IPO定价为11.5美元/ADS。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c5f75ebc879eb4bd89cb62ecda77fa\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>今日，掌门教育宣布，其首次公开发行定价为每ADS 11.50美元，发行股数为362.3万股，总发行规模为4170万美元，该股将于今日在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市。</p><p>该公司表示，已授予承销商超额配售权，可在最终招股说明书日期起30天内行使，以IPO价格额外购买总计543,450股ADS。如果承销商不行使超额配售权，每股ADS则代表9股公司A类普通股，此次发行预计将于2021年6月10日完成。</p><p>掌门教育是中国领先的在线教育公司，专注于为 K-12 学生提供个性化在线课程。其核心课程包括一对一和小班课后辅导服务，涵盖所有核心K-12学术科目。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，自2017年以来，按总账单计算，公司一直是中国最大的在线K-12一对一课外辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为31.9%。</p><p>据招股书显示，2019年、2020年与截至2021年3月31日的三个月，该公司净收入分别为26.687亿元、40.184亿元、13.457亿元；毛利分别为10.175亿元、18.145亿元、5.975亿元；净亏损分别为15.04亿元、10.123亿元、4.973亿元。</p><p>本次IPO承销商为摩根士丹利、瑞士信贷、花旗集团、中金公司、麦格理资本。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922abfea39c1a9982f5473eca933e3da\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>掌门教育登陆纽交所，开盘涨超54%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n掌门教育登陆纽交所，开盘涨超54%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-08 23:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月8日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZME\">掌门教育</a>登陆纽交所，开盘涨超54%，报17.74美元。其IPO定价为11.5美元/ADS。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c5f75ebc879eb4bd89cb62ecda77fa\" tg-width=\"844\" tg-height=\"625\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>今日，掌门教育宣布，其首次公开发行定价为每ADS 11.50美元，发行股数为362.3万股，总发行规模为4170万美元，该股将于今日在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市。</p><p>该公司表示，已授予承销商超额配售权，可在最终招股说明书日期起30天内行使，以IPO价格额外购买总计543,450股ADS。如果承销商不行使超额配售权，每股ADS则代表9股公司A类普通股，此次发行预计将于2021年6月10日完成。</p><p>掌门教育是中国领先的在线教育公司，专注于为 K-12 学生提供个性化在线课程。其核心课程包括一对一和小班课后辅导服务，涵盖所有核心K-12学术科目。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，自2017年以来，按总账单计算，公司一直是中国最大的在线K-12一对一课外辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为31.9%。</p><p>据招股书显示，2019年、2020年与截至2021年3月31日的三个月，该公司净收入分别为26.687亿元、40.184亿元、13.457亿元；毛利分别为10.175亿元、18.145亿元、5.975亿元；净亏损分别为15.04亿元、10.123亿元、4.973亿元。</p><p>本次IPO承销商为摩根士丹利、瑞士信贷、花旗集团、中金公司、麦格理资本。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/922abfea39c1a9982f5473eca933e3da\" tg-width=\"839\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b910689c97a01c60e631e53190e0e15","relate_stocks":{"ZME":"掌门教育"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2141665322","content_text":"6月8日，掌门教育登陆纽交所，开盘涨超54%，报17.74美元。其IPO定价为11.5美元/ADS。今日，掌门教育宣布，其首次公开发行定价为每ADS 11.50美元，发行股数为362.3万股，总发行规模为4170万美元，该股将于今日在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市。该公司表示，已授予承销商超额配售权，可在最终招股说明书日期起30天内行使，以IPO价格额外购买总计543,450股ADS。如果承销商不行使超额配售权，每股ADS则代表9股公司A类普通股，此次发行预计将于2021年6月10日完成。掌门教育是中国领先的在线教育公司，专注于为 K-12 学生提供个性化在线课程。其核心课程包括一对一和小班课后辅导服务，涵盖所有核心K-12学术科目。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，自2017年以来，按总账单计算，公司一直是中国最大的在线K-12一对一课外辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为31.9%。据招股书显示，2019年、2020年与截至2021年3月31日的三个月，该公司净收入分别为26.687亿元、40.184亿元、13.457亿元；毛利分别为10.175亿元、18.145亿元、5.975亿元；净亏损分别为15.04亿元、10.123亿元、4.973亿元。本次IPO承销商为摩根士丹利、瑞士信贷、花旗集团、中金公司、麦格理资本。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":112058833,"gmtCreate":1622828503022,"gmtModify":1631892418319,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112058833","repostId":"2140401208","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2140401208","pubTimestamp":1622818186,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140401208?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c9d3fb41f6db4ea86b5ca9c5a0b36c","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://tech.sina.cn/i/gn/2021-06-04/detail-ikqciyzi7768454.d.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140401208","content_text":"周五，中概股荔枝大涨6%，盘初一度涨超10%。公司与理想汽车达成车载音频方向合作，相关车载音频产品将在今年第三季度上线理想汽车车载系统。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":118587903,"gmtCreate":1622739210702,"gmtModify":1631892418325,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"棒👍","listText":"棒👍","text":"棒👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118587903","repostId":"1195326007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":118582547,"gmtCreate":1622738986389,"gmtModify":1631892418327,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118582547","repostId":"1117245375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117245375","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622731377,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117245375?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-03 22:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股汽车股集体逆市上涨，特斯拉独自下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117245375","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，美股汽车股集体逆市上涨。Workhorse一度涨近60%，该股昨日涨19%；Lordstown涨约10%，通用汽车涨近6%，福特汽车涨幅扩大至5.8%，股价刷新2015年以来新高。丰田、本田涨超","content":"<p>周四，美股汽车股集体逆市上涨。Workhorse一度涨近60%，该股昨日涨19%；Lordstown涨约10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>涨幅扩大至5.8%，股价刷新2015年以来新高。丰田、本田涨超1%</p><p>中概股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨近2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>则跌超1%。 </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9cfc1ac0943e3e97625babdb34465\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股汽车股集体逆市上涨，特斯拉独自下跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股汽车股集体逆市上涨，特斯拉独自下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-03 22:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四，美股汽车股集体逆市上涨。Workhorse一度涨近60%，该股昨日涨19%；Lordstown涨约10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>涨幅扩大至5.8%，股价刷新2015年以来新高。丰田、本田涨超1%</p><p>中概股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨近2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>则跌超1%。 </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9cfc1ac0943e3e97625babdb34465\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{"WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117245375","content_text":"周四，美股汽车股集体逆市上涨。Workhorse一度涨近60%，该股昨日涨19%；Lordstown涨约10%，通用汽车涨近6%，福特汽车涨幅扩大至5.8%，股价刷新2015年以来新高。丰田、本田涨超1%中概股方面，小鹏汽车涨超4%，理想汽车涨超2%，蔚来涨近2%。特斯拉则跌超1%。 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22:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘：三大指数集体高开，哔哩哔哩涨逾10%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157739198","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月11日，美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.40%，纳指涨1.56%，标普500指数涨0.69%。哔哩哔哩涨逾10%，报道称B站已于今日下午通过了港交所聆讯，招股最快将于下周启动。百度涨逾3%，据悉百","content":"<p>3月11日，美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.40%，纳指涨1.56%，标普500指数涨0.69%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289b804901527b41b4ac036a655e46d6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨逾10%，报道称B站已于今日下午通过了港交所聆讯，招股最快将于下周启动。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨逾3%，据悉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>港股将于周五开始招股。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>开涨超5%，第四季度营收同比增长30%，超市场预期。</p><p>新能源汽车板块走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨超4%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨超3%。瑞穗证券分析师Vijay Rakesh发表研报表示，预计未来电动汽车将在全球迅速发展，特斯拉将成为未来十年乃至更长时间的行业领先者，首予特斯拉“买入”评级，目标价775美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>涨超6%。财报显示，该公司四季度营收1.625亿美元，市场预期1.424亿美元。调整后每股亏损3.15美元，市场预期每股亏损3.53美元。四季度调整后的未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的亏损为3.275亿美元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：三大指数集体高开，哔哩哔哩涨逾10%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：三大指数集体高开，哔哩哔哩涨逾10%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-11 22:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>3月11日，美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.40%，纳指涨1.56%，标普500指数涨0.69%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/289b804901527b41b4ac036a655e46d6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨逾10%，报道称B站已于今日下午通过了港交所聆讯，招股最快将于下周启动。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨逾3%，据悉<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>港股将于周五开始招股。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>开涨超5%，第四季度营收同比增长30%，超市场预期。</p><p>新能源汽车板块走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨超4%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨超3%。瑞穗证券分析师Vijay Rakesh发表研报表示，预计未来电动汽车将在全球迅速发展，特斯拉将成为未来十年乃至更长时间的行业领先者，首予特斯拉“买入”评级，目标价775美元。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>涨超6%。财报显示，该公司四季度营收1.625亿美元，市场预期1.424亿美元。调整后每股亏损3.15美元，市场预期每股亏损3.53美元。四季度调整后的未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销前的亏损为3.275亿美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157739198","content_text":"3月11日，美股三大指数集体高开，道指涨0.40%，纳指涨1.56%，标普500指数涨0.69%。哔哩哔哩涨逾10%，报道称B站已于今日下午通过了港交所聆讯，招股最快将于下周启动。百度涨逾3%，据悉百度港股将于周五开始招股。京东开涨超5%，第四季度营收同比增长30%，超市场预期。新能源汽车板块走强，蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超4%。特斯拉涨超3%。瑞穗证券分析师Vijay 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22:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股汽车股集体逆市上涨，特斯拉独自下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117245375","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四，美股汽车股集体逆市上涨。Workhorse一度涨近60%，该股昨日涨19%；Lordstown涨约10%，通用汽车涨近6%，福特汽车涨幅扩大至5.8%，股价刷新2015年以来新高。丰田、本田涨超","content":"<p>周四，美股汽车股集体逆市上涨。Workhorse一度涨近60%，该股昨日涨19%；Lordstown涨约10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>涨幅扩大至5.8%，股价刷新2015年以来新高。丰田、本田涨超1%</p><p>中概股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨近2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>则跌超1%。 </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9cfc1ac0943e3e97625babdb34465\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股汽车股集体逆市上涨，特斯拉独自下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-03 22:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周四，美股汽车股集体逆市上涨。Workhorse一度涨近60%，该股昨日涨19%；Lordstown涨约10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特汽车</a>涨幅扩大至5.8%，股价刷新2015年以来新高。丰田、本田涨超1%</p><p>中概股方面，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨近2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>则跌超1%。 </p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a9cfc1ac0943e3e97625babdb34465\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{"WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117245375","content_text":"周四，美股汽车股集体逆市上涨。Workhorse一度涨近60%，该股昨日涨19%；Lordstown涨约10%，通用汽车涨近6%，福特汽车涨幅扩大至5.8%，股价刷新2015年以来新高。丰田、本田涨超1%中概股方面，小鹏汽车涨超4%，理想汽车涨超2%，蔚来涨近2%。特斯拉则跌超1%。 ","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":105009555,"gmtCreate":1620257507177,"gmtModify":1631892418334,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569319906313275\">@安妮1022</a>:👍","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3569319906313275\">@安妮1022</a>:👍","text":"//@安妮1022:👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105009555","repostId":"2133541023","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360176768,"gmtCreate":1613877671954,"gmtModify":1631893834311,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"厉害👍","listText":"厉害👍","text":"厉害👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360176768","repostId":"1172846474","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172846474","pubTimestamp":1613872063,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172846474?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-21 09:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"手机巨头为何要造车？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172846474","media":"半导体风向标","summary":"在《特斯拉背后的三股力量》中，我们详细阐述了新能源车背后的规模效益、网络效应和摩尔定律，本篇基于基于科技全新世界观的三种视角，来解释以华为、苹果为主的手机巨头为何纷纷布局电车。\n我们先梳理出数字化世界","content":"<p>在《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>背后的三股力量》中，我们详细阐述了新能源车背后的<b>规模效益、网络效应和摩尔定律，</b>本篇基于基于科技全新世界观的三种视角，来解释以华为、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>为主的<b>手机巨头为何纷纷布局电车</b>。</p>\n<p>我们先梳理出数字化世界的三条赛道：<b>1、To C</b>的消费互联网，<b>格局已定</b>；<b>2、To B</b>的产业互联网，<b>格局已定</b>；<b>3、To T</b>的AIoT物联网，<b>刚刚开始</b>。</p>\n<p>我们发现除了<b>唤醒万物的IoT</b>物联网外，另外两条赛道巨头林立、格局已定，未来的突破点就是to T。</p>\n<p>面对锁死的前两条赛道，摆在手机互联网巨头面前只能基于to T的做两种努力：</p>\n<p>1、向下兼容，将所有<b>长尾家电</b>AIoT化，小米和苹果已经布局多年。</p>\n<p>2、向上突破，进入<b>单品市场空间最大</b>的汽车市场，数字化改造整个汽车行业，这是唯一的跨越成长之路。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7260a5d76c8d8272cd07dc8973b8506\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"627\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>1、To C的消费互联网：也就是对人的数字化（2C）</b></p>\n<p>to C的消费互联网其本质是基于人的数字化赋能，关注的是客户体验，这是产品经理的时代，按照网络效应的强度，经过20多年的演化竞争，社交、分发、电商、文娱四条C端主赛道，目前座次已定，FAAMG+BATJM不仅领跑而且封锁赛道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cec36c65e2196fa48094143545f85f81\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>五个子赛道，格局已定：</p>\n<p><b>人与人（社交SNS）</b>：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a> + <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a></p>\n<p><b>人与商品/服务（电商）</b>：阿里 + <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>+美团</p>\n<p><b>人与信息（搜索+信息流</b>）：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a> + 头条/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a></p>\n<p><b>人与娱乐内容</b>：抖音 + B站 + <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a> + 耐飞</p>\n<p><b>C端的底盘（操作系统）</b>：苹果 + <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a> + Google</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机，作为对“人”的数字化的物理接口，其主要价值量都被苹果、谷歌、微软占据了最核心且无法逾越的操作系统，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、华为、小米只是整个2C生态位次要的硬件环节。</p>\n<p>所以，纵观基于C端的个人数字化改造赛道，留下的空间已经不多了。所以对于C端的手机巨头来说，智能手机只能是战术过渡，这不是终局，是实现其最终战略目标的中转站。</p>\n<p><b>2、To B的产业互联网：也就是对企业的数字化改造（2B）</b></p>\n<p>to B的本质是什么？</p>\n<p>To B的产业互联网：其本质是基于企业（B）需求的数字化，解决的是效率提升，我们同样抽象出云、金融、物流、企业服务四条B端主赛道，在网络效应主导下格局已定，阿里、亚马逊、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>领跑全球，并且能够封锁赛道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f13b9f6d8759e309e7de4faf9e73b5b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>如上图所示，云计算的本质就是“商业操作系统”</p>\n<p>跟手机和PC操作系统一样，这是最无与伦比的商业模式，掌握操作系统才能冲刺万亿市值。虽然小米公司并未直接涉足云计算，但是与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>、和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688111\">金山办公</a>，分别扮演者重要角色。金山云和金山办公就是企业级的数字化改造，企业与组织的数字化。</p>\n<p>但B端的产业互联网巨头已经封锁赛道，格局已定，所以未来的机会只能是基于算法+算力赋能和唤醒万物的IoT物联网。</p>\n<p><b>3、对物的数字化：这是数字化的终极形态</b></p>\n<p>何为2T（to Things）？</p>\n<p>数字世界的三大生产关系，以人为基础的2C消费互联网，以企业为基础的2B产业互联网，2T就是以Things为落脚点的万物互联网。</p>\n<p>ToT的IoT物联网：2T代表着唤醒万物的全新生产关系，是互联网发展的终极形态，是一种赋能Things的极致数字化，我们按场景将其分为家、车、工业、城市4大主赛道，其中处于绝对支配地位的就是人居和人车场景。目前小米在家庭场景，人居场景的AIOT已经是全球第一，特斯拉则是人车场景的全球领跑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b411aa318ccfc2ddbde604fc7b830c3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"899\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在赛道拥挤的To C和To B市场，手机厂商们面对的是“内卷”的行业格局，而反观to T的数字化</p>\n<p>我们识别出至少两大新赛道：</p>\n<p>1、基于人居场景的家庭AIOT：将人居环境的所有传统家电数字化，实现泛互联和泛智能。</p>\n<p>2、基于车的无人驾驶：用算法+算力将电车唤醒，实现电动和无人驾驶。</p>\n<p>我们发现原有的手机巨头（苹果、华为）在手机见顶之后，都是布局了IoT智能硬件，但这些长尾的家电+可穿戴的智能化，永远不能支撑巨头们的增长体量，<b>未来唯一的大幅增长机会就是车。</b></p>\n<p>基于汽车<b>行业的电动化和智能</b>化浪潮，我们推荐整个电车半导体板块的持久性拉动，建议关注<b>电车半导体的10大环节</b>，建议关注：</p>\n<p>1、电车之脑（CPU、FPGA、ASIC）：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、华为、特斯拉、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a></p>\n<p>2、电车之心（MOSFET）：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688396\">华润微</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600745\">闻泰科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605358\">立昂微</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605111\">新洁能</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300373\">扬杰科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300623\">捷捷微电</a></p>\n<p>3、电车之心（IGBT）：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、中车时代、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603290\">斯达半导</a>、新洁能、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600460\">士兰微</a>、华润微</p>\n<p>4、电车之心（第三代半导体）：CREE、三安集成、山东天岳、天科合达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002371\">北方华创</a></p>\n<p>5、电车之耳（V2X射频模拟）：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300782\">卓胜微</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688536\">思瑞浦</a>、紫光展锐、圣邦、唯捷、好达</p>\n<p>6、电车之眼（CMOS摄像头）：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603501\">韦尔股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603005\">晶方科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002036\">联创电子</a>、舜宇光学、丘钛</p>\n<p>7、电车之忆（DRAM、NAND、NOR）：长江存储、合肥长鑫、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603986\">兆易创新</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300223\">北京君正</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688123\">聚辰股份</a></p>\n<p>8、电车之屏（LCD、OLED）：京东方、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000100\">TCL科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002387\">维信诺</a>、深天马、彩虹、精测、杉杉</p>\n<p>9、电车之灯（LED车灯）：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600703\">三安光电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002429\">兆驰股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300323\">华灿光电</a>、中微</p>\n<p>10、电车之杖（超声波/毫米波雷达）：禾赛科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600741\">华域汽车</a></p>\n<p>最后还有产业链的上游支撑：封测（长电、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000021\">深科技</a>、通富、华天）、设备（北方华创、屹唐、华峰、盛美、万业）、制造（华虹、中芯、闻泰）、IP（芯原）、材料（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002129\">中环股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688126\">沪硅产业</a>、立昂微）</p>","source":"半导体风向标","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>手机巨头为何要造车？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n手机巨头为何要造车？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-21 09:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cTTpgKrPhjJIi-1BhbHL1g><strong>半导体风向标</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在《特斯拉背后的三股力量》中，我们详细阐述了新能源车背后的规模效益、网络效应和摩尔定律，本篇基于基于科技全新世界观的三种视角，来解释以华为、苹果为主的手机巨头为何纷纷布局电车。\n我们先梳理出数字化世界的三条赛道：1、To C的消费互联网，格局已定；2、To B的产业互联网，格局已定；3、To T的AIoT物联网，刚刚开始。\n我们发现除了唤醒万物的IoT物联网外，另外两条赛道巨头林立、格局已定，未来...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cTTpgKrPhjJIi-1BhbHL1g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b080088ccd25b9d40f79c93bf464e7","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cTTpgKrPhjJIi-1BhbHL1g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172846474","content_text":"在《特斯拉背后的三股力量》中，我们详细阐述了新能源车背后的规模效益、网络效应和摩尔定律，本篇基于基于科技全新世界观的三种视角，来解释以华为、苹果为主的手机巨头为何纷纷布局电车。\n我们先梳理出数字化世界的三条赛道：1、To C的消费互联网，格局已定；2、To B的产业互联网，格局已定；3、To T的AIoT物联网，刚刚开始。\n我们发现除了唤醒万物的IoT物联网外，另外两条赛道巨头林立、格局已定，未来的突破点就是to T。\n面对锁死的前两条赛道，摆在手机互联网巨头面前只能基于to T的做两种努力：\n1、向下兼容，将所有长尾家电AIoT化，小米和苹果已经布局多年。\n2、向上突破，进入单品市场空间最大的汽车市场，数字化改造整个汽车行业，这是唯一的跨越成长之路。\n\n1、To C的消费互联网：也就是对人的数字化（2C）\nto C的消费互联网其本质是基于人的数字化赋能，关注的是客户体验，这是产品经理的时代，按照网络效应的强度，经过20多年的演化竞争，社交、分发、电商、文娱四条C端主赛道，目前座次已定，FAAMG+BATJM不仅领跑而且封锁赛道。\n\n五个子赛道，格局已定：\n人与人（社交SNS）：腾讯 + Facebook\n人与商品/服务（电商）：阿里 + 亚马逊+美团\n人与信息（搜索+信息流）：谷歌 + 头条/百度\n人与娱乐内容：抖音 + B站 + 爱奇艺 + 耐飞\nC端的底盘（操作系统）：苹果 + 微软 + Google\n智能手机，作为对“人”的数字化的物理接口，其主要价值量都被苹果、谷歌、微软占据了最核心且无法逾越的操作系统，三星、华为、小米只是整个2C生态位次要的硬件环节。\n所以，纵观基于C端的个人数字化改造赛道，留下的空间已经不多了。所以对于C端的手机巨头来说，智能手机只能是战术过渡，这不是终局，是实现其最终战略目标的中转站。\n2、To B的产业互联网：也就是对企业的数字化改造（2B）\nto B的本质是什么？\nTo B的产业互联网：其本质是基于企业（B）需求的数字化，解决的是效率提升，我们同样抽象出云、金融、物流、企业服务四条B端主赛道，在网络效应主导下格局已定，阿里、亚马逊、微软、Zoom、Salesforce领跑全球，并且能够封锁赛道。\n\n如上图所示，云计算的本质就是“商业操作系统”\n跟手机和PC操作系统一样，这是最无与伦比的商业模式，掌握操作系统才能冲刺万亿市值。虽然小米公司并未直接涉足云计算，但是与金山云、和金山办公，分别扮演者重要角色。金山云和金山办公就是企业级的数字化改造，企业与组织的数字化。\n但B端的产业互联网巨头已经封锁赛道，格局已定，所以未来的机会只能是基于算法+算力赋能和唤醒万物的IoT物联网。\n3、对物的数字化：这是数字化的终极形态\n何为2T（to Things）？\n数字世界的三大生产关系，以人为基础的2C消费互联网，以企业为基础的2B产业互联网，2T就是以Things为落脚点的万物互联网。\nToT的IoT物联网：2T代表着唤醒万物的全新生产关系，是互联网发展的终极形态，是一种赋能Things的极致数字化，我们按场景将其分为家、车、工业、城市4大主赛道，其中处于绝对支配地位的就是人居和人车场景。目前小米在家庭场景，人居场景的AIOT已经是全球第一，特斯拉则是人车场景的全球领跑。\n\n在赛道拥挤的To C和To B市场，手机厂商们面对的是“内卷”的行业格局，而反观to T的数字化\n我们识别出至少两大新赛道：\n1、基于人居场景的家庭AIOT：将人居环境的所有传统家电数字化，实现泛互联和泛智能。\n2、基于车的无人驾驶：用算法+算力将电车唤醒，实现电动和无人驾驶。\n我们发现原有的手机巨头（苹果、华为）在手机见顶之后，都是布局了IoT智能硬件，但这些长尾的家电+可穿戴的智能化，永远不能支撑巨头们的增长体量，未来唯一的大幅增长机会就是车。\n基于汽车行业的电动化和智能化浪潮，我们推荐整个电车半导体板块的持久性拉动，建议关注电车半导体的10大环节，建议关注：\n1、电车之脑（CPU、FPGA、ASIC）：台积电、华为、特斯拉、英伟达、高通\n2、电车之心（MOSFET）：华润微、闻泰科技、立昂微、新洁能、扬杰科技、捷捷微电\n3、电车之心（IGBT）：华虹半导体、比亚迪、中车时代、斯达半导、新洁能、士兰微、华润微\n4、电车之心（第三代半导体）：CREE、三安集成、山东天岳、天科合达、北方华创\n5、电车之耳（V2X射频模拟）：卓胜微、思瑞浦、紫光展锐、圣邦、唯捷、好达\n6、电车之眼（CMOS摄像头）：韦尔股份、晶方科技、联创电子、舜宇光学、丘钛\n7、电车之忆（DRAM、NAND、NOR）：长江存储、合肥长鑫、兆易创新、北京君正、聚辰股份\n8、电车之屏（LCD、OLED）：京东方、TCL科技、维信诺、深天马、彩虹、精测、杉杉\n9、电车之灯（LED车灯）：三安光电、兆驰股份、华灿光电、中微\n10、电车之杖（超声波/毫米波雷达）：禾赛科技、华域汽车\n最后还有产业链的上游支撑：封测（长电、深科技、通富、华天）、设备（北方华创、屹唐、华峰、盛美、万业）、制造（华虹、中芯、闻泰）、IP（芯原）、材料（中环股份、沪硅产业、立昂微）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":61,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183704190,"gmtCreate":1623347793410,"gmtModify":1631890099473,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183704190","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":118587903,"gmtCreate":1622739210702,"gmtModify":1631892418325,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"棒👍","listText":"棒👍","text":"棒👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118587903","repostId":"1195326007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328919314,"gmtCreate":1615478583538,"gmtModify":1703489779930,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"收到了👌","listText":"收到了👌","text":"收到了👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328919314","repostId":"1136225097","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328904072,"gmtCreate":1615477374896,"gmtModify":1703489748463,"author":{"id":"3572270355848461","authorId":"3572270355848461","name":"Chowws","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d82981bc22efc904e32b4eaf83288c2","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加油吧！","listText":"加油吧！","text":"加油吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328904072","repostId":"1150912365","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150912365","pubTimestamp":1615473673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150912365?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-11 22:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国1.9万亿美元刺激法案通过，是福是祸？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150912365","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁","content":"<p><i>正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁荣的里根比肩而立，成为一位美国经济英雄。反方则认为，现在，全球范围内从汽油价格到住宅价格都在大涨，而那些投机性资产价格更是高到让人瞠目结舌，投资者越来越谈通货膨胀而色变，在这种情况下，如果美国政府向已经转暖的经济倾泻更多燃料，火上浇油，就可能导致通货膨胀急剧抬头，酿成大祸。</i></p>\n<p>当地时间周三，美国国会正式批准了向已然处在增长当中的美国经济注入1.9万亿美元资金的法案，堪称是前所未有的举措。这一法案至此只剩下了最后一步程序——送交拜登总统签署，而在此之前，国会去年在疫情期间已经通过了总计近4万亿美元的刺激计划。</p>\n<p>不过，白宫显然并不满足于此，他们还希望能够在今年年内抛出更多万亿级别的刺激，比如对全美基础设施进行全面大升级。</p>\n<p>这样的现实之下，经济学家、预算专家，以及经济政策制定者们当中，已经掀起了一场覆盖全美的大辩论。</p>\n<p>正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁荣的里根比肩而立，成为一位美国经济英雄。</p>\n<p>反方则认为，现在，全球范围内从汽油价格到住宅价格都在大涨，而那些投机性资产价格更是高到让人瞠目结舌，投资者越来越谈通货膨胀而色变，在这种情况下，如果美国政府向已经转暖的经济倾泻更多燃料，火上浇油，就可能导致通货膨胀急剧抬头，酿成大祸。</p>\n<p>无论怎样，当拜登按照预定日程于本周五签署新法案，他的早期经济政策日程都将迎来一个标志性的时刻。只不过，这个国家现在正在开始以一种全新的路径来管理经济，而这未必一定就会有一个美妙的结果。</p>\n<p>“如果一切运转良好，拜登就将成为大家心目当中的英雄，而他确实也配得上这样的光荣。”锡拉丘兹大学经济学家、税务政策中心（Tax Policy Center）创始人之一伯曼（Len Burman）分析道，“这是美国历史上第一次在危机当中提供力度足够的刺激，但是风险在于，这力度也可能会被证明是过大了。通货膨胀的威胁是实实在在的。如果最终的结果不如人意，至少我们会得到一些教训，知道这样规模的实验会造成怎样的后果。”</p>\n<p>伴随新冠病毒疫苗加速铺开，各州陆续解除和放宽封锁措施，这份即将贯彻实施的“美国救援计划”（ American Rescue Plan）问世的时候，美国经济其实已经显现出了不少复苏的苗头。</p>\n<p>2月间，美国经济创造出了37.9万就业机会，让观察家们大喜过望，而且预计未来一段时间当中，伴随酒吧和餐厅重新开始营业，美国人逐渐恢复旅行，还将有大量更多的岗位被创造出来。</p>\n<p>现在，企业界都在准备迎接经济在今年晚些时候逐渐回归常态的脚步，首席执行官信心指数冲上了十七年的新高。小企业信心数字虽然保持着相对谨慎的态势，但是上扬的势头也是实实在在的。在整个疫情封锁期间，全球主要经济体的消费者们已经积蓄了近3万亿美元的新增现金，这就意味着一旦生活逐渐恢复正常，从旅行到汽车再到各种新商品，所有领域的需求都将大幅度抬头。</p>\n<p>当然，这样的局面之下，各种通货膨胀走高的迹象也开始在美国多处出现，比如汽油价格正在飞涨，而且预计还将继续涨下去。无论是新车还是二手车，价格都大幅度上涨，原本就已经炙手可热的住宅市场就更不必说。在这样的情况下，政策制定者们不能不开始警惕起来，甚至感到担心。</p>\n<p>当然，最有代表性的当然还是高企的股票价格，以及比特币等投机资产的价格。在利率处于历史性低点，联储和国会还在持续注入现金的情况之下，这些涨势大概率都将延续下去。</p>\n<p>股市本周继续奔腾前进，欣快症的气息越发浓烈。比如游戏驿站这种散户疯狂集中地，还有特斯拉这种散户情绪标志性股票，价格都在大涨。</p>\n<p>在未来一段时间里，成百上千万美国人都将从刺激计划当中获得不菲的现金——联邦失业救济补贴，儿童免税扣除额度提升，更慷慨的医保补贴，以及针对小企业，尤其是有色人种和女性企业主的小企业的定向援救措施等。</p>\n<p>进步主义者对上述所有这一切拍手叫好，认为这是重大的进步，不但会在短期内促进经济增长，更有助于矫正疫情期间越发严重的贫富不均局面。</p>\n<p>许多经济学家还指出，其实还有许多美国人依然需要更多的帮助。目前，全美就业机会数量较之疫情爆发前依然有着大约1100万的差距。虽然官方失业率数字是6.2%，但是如果将那些疫情期间退出劳动力市场的人口——大部分都是女性——纳入计算，则这一数字就将接近10%。</p>\n<p>虽然共和党方面几乎是众口一词地批评这一纾困计划规模过大，颇有浪费的嫌疑，但是多数经济学家们的口径却要柔和得多。</p>\n<p>他们指出，虽然救援计划力度过大的可能性确实是存在的，也完全可能导致价格迅速上涨，并迫使联储提早加息，使科技股票、散户热门股票和虚拟货币等资产价格遭到冲击，但是，如果这些泡沫能够缓缓将空气放出，而不是一起破灭，其实也未必不是一件好事。</p>\n<p>穆迪分析首席经济学家詹迪（Mark Zandi）就认为：“其实我们别无选择，唯有提供这种力度的支持，而且我们过去长达二十年的时间里，通货膨胀一直都低于正常水平。通货膨胀适度抬升并非坏事，现在还远没有到其为其感到担心的地步。至于利率，现在无论如何都是过低的。投资者对于更高的利率和通货膨胀率并非毫无准备。”</p>\n<p>“市场泡沫气息浓厚。”詹迪补充道，“提早释放出一些空气，其实总好过让这些泡沫日益膨胀。”</p>\n<p>詹迪所言，其实就代表了对即将迎来现金大水漫灌的美国经济前景的最乐观预期：市场温和调整，利率略有提高，而失业率将大幅度降低，贫富不均局面将得到重大改善。事实上，这也正是拜登的理想蓝图。</p>\n<p>不过，也有不少经济学家并没有这么乐观，他们担心的是已经非常可观的消费者储蓄，一旦疫情结束，生活和经济正常化，这些资金全部释放出来，就将使得总需求大幅度提升，而总供给根本无法与其匹配。在这种情况下，各种商品和服务价格就将全面飙涨，迫使联储提早加息，而且是连续加息。</p>\n<p>大力度的连续加息，将使得消费者面临的借贷成本急剧窜升，而因为通货膨胀的关系，他们的购买力同时还在迅速缩水。更不必说，高利率环境当中，美国业已膨胀到惊人地步的国债，其偿付成本也将大幅度升高，拜登希望后续推出的基础设施升级刺激计划的命运就将因此被打上巨大的问号，毕竟现在，共和党人就已经表示了强烈抵制的态度。</p>\n<p>“我们的债务规模显然已经达到了不可持续的水平，而且我们也知道，利率终归不可能永远保持这样的低水平。”伯曼分析道，“如果市场最终意识到，美国已经不再是过去那种安全的避风港，利率就可能迅速窜升。这当然还不是迫在眉睫的问题，但是投资者对此必须提前有所准备，归根结底，这风险是实实在在的。”</p>\n<p>其实，早在新刺激法案闯关前，经济学家们就已经预计美国经济2021年将实现强势增长了。现在，大家的普遍看法是，在新法案的进一步刺激下，美国经济今年的增长速度有望达到7%左右，这是一个20世纪80年代以来就从来不曾出现过的数字。</p>\n<p>如此可观的经济增长确实可以帮助许多人摆脱贫困，让工资在不导致通货膨胀抬头的情况下获得增长，并让拜登因此获得经济英雄的地位。然而，另外一种截然相反的结果出现的可能性一样不容忽视——通货膨胀急剧窜升，吞噬消费者的购买力，并迫使联储采取破坏性极大的紧急加息动作。</p>\n<p>“显而易见的是，政策制定者们，尤其是他们当中的左翼，已经彻底忘记了通货膨胀的破坏力能够有多可怕。”瑞穗证券首席美国经济学家雷契特（Steven Ricchiuto）表示，好在至少现在，他还不必对这一点过多担心。</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国1.9万亿美元刺激法案通过，是福是祸？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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class=\"title\">\n美国1.9万亿美元刺激法案通过，是福是祸？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-11 22:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jmcdhioDCRCM3mU8pjgQcQ><strong>腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁荣的里根比肩而立，成为一位美国经济英雄。反方则认为，现在，全球范围内从汽油价格到住宅价格都在大涨，而那些投机性资产价格更是高到让人瞠目结舌，投资者越来越谈通货膨胀而色变，在这种情况下，如果美国政府向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jmcdhioDCRCM3mU8pjgQcQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844c8f1c14dd94e2ef7036ff97d43537","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jmcdhioDCRCM3mU8pjgQcQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150912365","content_text":"正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁荣的里根比肩而立，成为一位美国经济英雄。反方则认为，现在，全球范围内从汽油价格到住宅价格都在大涨，而那些投机性资产价格更是高到让人瞠目结舌，投资者越来越谈通货膨胀而色变，在这种情况下，如果美国政府向已经转暖的经济倾泻更多燃料，火上浇油，就可能导致通货膨胀急剧抬头，酿成大祸。\n当地时间周三，美国国会正式批准了向已然处在增长当中的美国经济注入1.9万亿美元资金的法案，堪称是前所未有的举措。这一法案至此只剩下了最后一步程序——送交拜登总统签署，而在此之前，国会去年在疫情期间已经通过了总计近4万亿美元的刺激计划。\n不过，白宫显然并不满足于此，他们还希望能够在今年年内抛出更多万亿级别的刺激，比如对全美基础设施进行全面大升级。\n这样的现实之下，经济学家、预算专家，以及经济政策制定者们当中，已经掀起了一场覆盖全美的大辩论。\n正方认为，法案通过标志着所谓“美国黎明”时刻的来到，已经准备好迎来繁荣时期的美国经济将获得“涡轮增压”，贫富不均问题将得到重大改善，最终拜登也将因此与终结了大萧条的罗斯福，以及开启20世纪80年代大繁荣的里根比肩而立，成为一位美国经济英雄。\n反方则认为，现在，全球范围内从汽油价格到住宅价格都在大涨，而那些投机性资产价格更是高到让人瞠目结舌，投资者越来越谈通货膨胀而色变，在这种情况下，如果美国政府向已经转暖的经济倾泻更多燃料，火上浇油，就可能导致通货膨胀急剧抬头，酿成大祸。\n无论怎样，当拜登按照预定日程于本周五签署新法案，他的早期经济政策日程都将迎来一个标志性的时刻。只不过，这个国家现在正在开始以一种全新的路径来管理经济，而这未必一定就会有一个美妙的结果。\n“如果一切运转良好，拜登就将成为大家心目当中的英雄，而他确实也配得上这样的光荣。”锡拉丘兹大学经济学家、税务政策中心（Tax Policy Center）创始人之一伯曼（Len Burman）分析道，“这是美国历史上第一次在危机当中提供力度足够的刺激，但是风险在于，这力度也可能会被证明是过大了。通货膨胀的威胁是实实在在的。如果最终的结果不如人意，至少我们会得到一些教训，知道这样规模的实验会造成怎样的后果。”\n伴随新冠病毒疫苗加速铺开，各州陆续解除和放宽封锁措施，这份即将贯彻实施的“美国救援计划”（ American Rescue Plan）问世的时候，美国经济其实已经显现出了不少复苏的苗头。\n2月间，美国经济创造出了37.9万就业机会，让观察家们大喜过望，而且预计未来一段时间当中，伴随酒吧和餐厅重新开始营业，美国人逐渐恢复旅行，还将有大量更多的岗位被创造出来。\n现在，企业界都在准备迎接经济在今年晚些时候逐渐回归常态的脚步，首席执行官信心指数冲上了十七年的新高。小企业信心数字虽然保持着相对谨慎的态势，但是上扬的势头也是实实在在的。在整个疫情封锁期间，全球主要经济体的消费者们已经积蓄了近3万亿美元的新增现金，这就意味着一旦生活逐渐恢复正常，从旅行到汽车再到各种新商品，所有领域的需求都将大幅度抬头。\n当然，这样的局面之下，各种通货膨胀走高的迹象也开始在美国多处出现，比如汽油价格正在飞涨，而且预计还将继续涨下去。无论是新车还是二手车，价格都大幅度上涨，原本就已经炙手可热的住宅市场就更不必说。在这样的情况下，政策制定者们不能不开始警惕起来，甚至感到担心。\n当然，最有代表性的当然还是高企的股票价格，以及比特币等投机资产的价格。在利率处于历史性低点，联储和国会还在持续注入现金的情况之下，这些涨势大概率都将延续下去。\n股市本周继续奔腾前进，欣快症的气息越发浓烈。比如游戏驿站这种散户疯狂集中地，还有特斯拉这种散户情绪标志性股票，价格都在大涨。\n在未来一段时间里，成百上千万美国人都将从刺激计划当中获得不菲的现金——联邦失业救济补贴，儿童免税扣除额度提升，更慷慨的医保补贴，以及针对小企业，尤其是有色人种和女性企业主的小企业的定向援救措施等。\n进步主义者对上述所有这一切拍手叫好，认为这是重大的进步，不但会在短期内促进经济增长，更有助于矫正疫情期间越发严重的贫富不均局面。\n许多经济学家还指出，其实还有许多美国人依然需要更多的帮助。目前，全美就业机会数量较之疫情爆发前依然有着大约1100万的差距。虽然官方失业率数字是6.2%，但是如果将那些疫情期间退出劳动力市场的人口——大部分都是女性——纳入计算，则这一数字就将接近10%。\n虽然共和党方面几乎是众口一词地批评这一纾困计划规模过大，颇有浪费的嫌疑，但是多数经济学家们的口径却要柔和得多。\n他们指出，虽然救援计划力度过大的可能性确实是存在的，也完全可能导致价格迅速上涨，并迫使联储提早加息，使科技股票、散户热门股票和虚拟货币等资产价格遭到冲击，但是，如果这些泡沫能够缓缓将空气放出，而不是一起破灭，其实也未必不是一件好事。\n穆迪分析首席经济学家詹迪（Mark Zandi）就认为：“其实我们别无选择，唯有提供这种力度的支持，而且我们过去长达二十年的时间里，通货膨胀一直都低于正常水平。通货膨胀适度抬升并非坏事，现在还远没有到其为其感到担心的地步。至于利率，现在无论如何都是过低的。投资者对于更高的利率和通货膨胀率并非毫无准备。”\n“市场泡沫气息浓厚。”詹迪补充道，“提早释放出一些空气，其实总好过让这些泡沫日益膨胀。”\n詹迪所言，其实就代表了对即将迎来现金大水漫灌的美国经济前景的最乐观预期：市场温和调整，利率略有提高，而失业率将大幅度降低，贫富不均局面将得到重大改善。事实上，这也正是拜登的理想蓝图。\n不过，也有不少经济学家并没有这么乐观，他们担心的是已经非常可观的消费者储蓄，一旦疫情结束，生活和经济正常化，这些资金全部释放出来，就将使得总需求大幅度提升，而总供给根本无法与其匹配。在这种情况下，各种商品和服务价格就将全面飙涨，迫使联储提早加息，而且是连续加息。\n大力度的连续加息，将使得消费者面临的借贷成本急剧窜升，而因为通货膨胀的关系，他们的购买力同时还在迅速缩水。更不必说，高利率环境当中，美国业已膨胀到惊人地步的国债，其偿付成本也将大幅度升高，拜登希望后续推出的基础设施升级刺激计划的命运就将因此被打上巨大的问号，毕竟现在，共和党人就已经表示了强烈抵制的态度。\n“我们的债务规模显然已经达到了不可持续的水平，而且我们也知道，利率终归不可能永远保持这样的低水平。”伯曼分析道，“如果市场最终意识到，美国已经不再是过去那种安全的避风港，利率就可能迅速窜升。这当然还不是迫在眉睫的问题，但是投资者对此必须提前有所准备，归根结底，这风险是实实在在的。”\n其实，早在新刺激法案闯关前，经济学家们就已经预计美国经济2021年将实现强势增长了。现在，大家的普遍看法是，在新法案的进一步刺激下，美国经济今年的增长速度有望达到7%左右，这是一个20世纪80年代以来就从来不曾出现过的数字。\n如此可观的经济增长确实可以帮助许多人摆脱贫困，让工资在不导致通货膨胀抬头的情况下获得增长，并让拜登因此获得经济英雄的地位。然而，另外一种截然相反的结果出现的可能性一样不容忽视——通货膨胀急剧窜升，吞噬消费者的购买力，并迫使联储采取破坏性极大的紧急加息动作。\n“显而易见的是，政策制定者们，尤其是他们当中的左翼，已经彻底忘记了通货膨胀的破坏力能够有多可怕。”瑞穗证券首席美国经济学家雷契特（Steven Ricchiuto）表示，好在至少现在，他还不必对这一点过多担心。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}