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IP属地:浙江
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dm007
2022-08-22
$AMC院线(AMC)$
发生了啥事儿
dm007
2022-03-19
又一个马后炮
阿里巴巴的底已经被触及到了
dm007
2022-03-18
$YANG 20220414 26.0 PUT$
嗯
dm007
2022-03-16
$YANG 20220414 26.0 PUT$
回点血
dm007
2022-03-10
$美团-W(03690)$
完蛋
dm007
2022-03-09
$恒生指数(HSI)$
20000点见
dm007
2022-03-07
崩盘了
腾讯控股跌近4%,再度失守400港元关口
dm007
2022-03-06
$腾讯控股ADR(TCEHY)$
盘后什么情况?
dm007
2022-03-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
当
dm007
2022-02-23
$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$
财报会不会吃翔?
dm007
2022-02-21
$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$
变态的
dm007
2022-02-18
$美团-W(03690)$
牛逼 直接干撒下
dm007
2022-02-03
$Meta Platforms(FB)$
我去 财报一个比一个狠
dm007
2022-02-02
$PayPal(PYPL)$
过分了啊
dm007
2022-02-01
大盘上涨,跟个股消息没有一毛钱关系
中概股强势逆袭!拼多多京东阿里集体狂飙,发生了什么?
dm007
2022-01-30
买了call期权 希望能赚点
财报前瞻 | AMD营收将跃升,数据中心颇具看点
dm007
2022-01-27
$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$
太狠了
dm007
2022-01-27
这韭菜割的。。。
鲍威尔暗示3月可能加息,美股三大指数集体转跌
dm007
2022-01-18
拉倒吧
中金:港股转机渐现,2022年可能是均值回归的一年
dm007
2022-01-18
$腾讯控股(00700)$
你今天吃*了?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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08:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴的底已经被触及到了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2220740793","media":"菩老投资","summary":"3月15日是阿里巴巴上市以来最惨的一刻,当日阿里巴巴股价跌到了73.28美元,这是阿里巴巴上市以来的最低价了,阿里巴巴2014年上市发行价68美元/股,当日开盘价格92.7美元,而昨天阿里巴巴的股价已经触及到了阿里巴巴的发行价,等于触及了阿里巴巴的灵魂。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 3月15日是<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a></span><span></span>上市以来最惨的一刻,当日<span target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">阿里巴巴</span>股价跌到了73.28美元,这是<span target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">阿里巴巴</span>上市以来的最低价了,阿里巴巴2014年上市发行价68美元/股,当日开盘价格92.7美元,而昨天阿里巴巴的股价已经触及到了阿里巴巴的发行价,等于触及了阿里巴巴的灵魂。阿里巴巴上市后唯一一次跌破发行价是在2015年的熊市的时候,当年阿里巴巴股价最低跌到了57.2美元,当时如果认识到的话,那么阿里巴巴后来的暴牛就真的投资上非常舒服了。</p>\n<center><img src=\"https://dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/D24852043572738323673_w640h288.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 阿里巴巴从2014年上市到现在,经营<span>业绩</span>增长了14倍,经营<span>净利润</span>增长了3倍,但是股价却要跌回出发点了,对于一家巨无霸的互联网公司来说,一个护城河很宽的互联网电商来说,这个股价走势确实非常的伤,但是侧面也反映了,阿里巴巴的低估。</p>\n<p> 阿里巴巴的净利润提升非常快</p>\n<center><img src=\"https://dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/D25412542226531863436_w640h205.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 阿里巴巴净利润从2017年3月的436.75亿直接飙升到了2020年的1494.33亿,仅仅只用了3年的时间,所以你可以发现互联网不是不想赚钱,一旦想赚钱,赚钱的速度可以快到难以想象,这就是为何互联网公司一直受到投资青睐的根源,根源就是赚钱太容易,而且可以做到非常快速,毕竟是平台型经济,全国14亿人,只要没人多出100块,就是1400亿的净利润,而100块对于大多数人来说都是小钱,这就是阿里巴巴未来的投资潜力。</p>\n<p> 阿里巴巴12.8亿用户数,保证了未来的业绩</p>\n<p> 阿里巴巴生态体系的全球年度活跃消费者截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日止 12 个月期间达到约12.80 亿,较截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日止 12 个月增加约 4,300 万。其中 9.79 亿消费者来自中国市场,以及 3.01 亿消费者来自海外,单季净增加分别超过 2,600 万及 1,600 万。</p>\n<p> 12.8亿的阿里巴巴用户总体是一个非常可观的数字,因为12.8亿用户,只要每个用户给阿里巴巴贡献100元,那么阿里巴巴的利润就可以提升1280亿,这对于阿里巴巴来说真的是一个巨大的无形资产。</p>\n<center><img src=\"https://dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/D25066376689613038487_w640h334.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 可以发现阿里巴巴活跃用户数据达到了8亿,跟<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a></span><span></span>是有的拼的,巨量的活跃用户数,可以给电商带来巨量的潜在利润来源。</p>\n<p> 阿里巴巴虽然短期遭遇了困难,但是也跌出了价值</p>\n<center><img src=\"https://dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/D25062228554201734115_w640h299.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 阿里巴巴市净率已经从高峰的5.05降到了现在的1.39,目前市值已经跟净资产相差无几了,未来如果持续继续走跌的话,阿里巴巴很可能变成类似<span>银行</span><span></span>股一样的破净,这是一个完全无法想象的情况,对于一家超级大型的互联网公司,居然要破净,反正我是不相信,我现在只认阿里巴巴的投资价值了。</p>\n<p> 阿里巴巴的ROE提升了</p>\n<center><img src=\"https://dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/D25156711364345711852_w640h300.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 很多人一直关注阿里巴巴的PE下滑了,但是阿里巴巴2021年的PE实际是不准的,因为阿里巴巴被罚了180亿,这180亿的影响必然会带来市盈率的下滑,同时为了避锋芒,阿里巴巴也进行了大规模的计提,这种藏利润的情况下,阿里巴巴的市盈率已经不准了,所以需要去看其他的盈利指标,比如ROE。</p>\n<p> 根据测算2021年阿里的ROE将达到17.6%,ROE相对于2020年已经提升了,说明2021年阿里巴巴的经营情况实际是转好的。</p>\n<p> 阿里巴巴的底已经触及,低估也是明显</p>\n<p> 很多人怀疑芒格的能力,认为芒格已经老了,实际只是投资者自己的能力不行了,阿里巴巴目前的价值是显而易见的。</p><p>(文章来源:菩老投资)</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里巴巴的底已经被触及到了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-18 08:02 北京时间 <a href=http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203182314579317_0.html><strong>菩老投资</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月15日是阿里巴巴上市以来最惨的一刻,当日阿里巴巴股价跌到了73.28美元,这是阿里巴巴上市以来的最低价了,阿里巴巴2014年上市发行价68美元/股,当日开盘价格92.7美元,而昨天阿里巴巴的股价已经触及到了阿里巴巴的发行价,等于触及了阿里巴巴的灵魂。阿里巴巴上市后唯一一次跌破发行价是在2015年的熊市的时候,当年阿里巴巴股价最低跌到了57.2美元,当时如果认识到的话,那么阿里巴巴后来的暴牛就...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203182314579317_0.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com///dfscdn.dfcfw.com/download/D24991352156456913296_w210h154.jpg?op=imageView2&mode=2&width=256&height=256&quality=70&format=png","relate_stocks":{"BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4558":"双十一","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4502":"阿里概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"source_url":"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203182314579317_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2220740793","content_text":"3月15日是阿里巴巴上市以来最惨的一刻,当日阿里巴巴股价跌到了73.28美元,这是阿里巴巴上市以来的最低价了,阿里巴巴2014年上市发行价68美元/股,当日开盘价格92.7美元,而昨天阿里巴巴的股价已经触及到了阿里巴巴的发行价,等于触及了阿里巴巴的灵魂。阿里巴巴上市后唯一一次跌破发行价是在2015年的熊市的时候,当年阿里巴巴股价最低跌到了57.2美元,当时如果认识到的话,那么阿里巴巴后来的暴牛就真的投资上非常舒服了。\n 阿里巴巴从2014年上市到现在,经营业绩增长了14倍,经营净利润增长了3倍,但是股价却要跌回出发点了,对于一家巨无霸的互联网公司来说,一个护城河很宽的互联网电商来说,这个股价走势确实非常的伤,但是侧面也反映了,阿里巴巴的低估。\n 阿里巴巴的净利润提升非常快\n 阿里巴巴净利润从2017年3月的436.75亿直接飙升到了2020年的1494.33亿,仅仅只用了3年的时间,所以你可以发现互联网不是不想赚钱,一旦想赚钱,赚钱的速度可以快到难以想象,这就是为何互联网公司一直受到投资青睐的根源,根源就是赚钱太容易,而且可以做到非常快速,毕竟是平台型经济,全国14亿人,只要没人多出100块,就是1400亿的净利润,而100块对于大多数人来说都是小钱,这就是阿里巴巴未来的投资潜力。\n 阿里巴巴12.8亿用户数,保证了未来的业绩\n 阿里巴巴生态体系的全球年度活跃消费者截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日止 12 个月期间达到约12.80 亿,较截至 2021 年 9 月 30 日止 12 个月增加约 4,300 万。其中 9.79 亿消费者来自中国市场,以及 3.01 亿消费者来自海外,单季净增加分别超过 2,600 万及 1,600 万。\n 12.8亿的阿里巴巴用户总体是一个非常可观的数字,因为12.8亿用户,只要每个用户给阿里巴巴贡献100元,那么阿里巴巴的利润就可以提升1280亿,这对于阿里巴巴来说真的是一个巨大的无形资产。\n 可以发现阿里巴巴活跃用户数据达到了8亿,跟拼多多是有的拼的,巨量的活跃用户数,可以给电商带来巨量的潜在利润来源。\n 阿里巴巴虽然短期遭遇了困难,但是也跌出了价值\n 阿里巴巴市净率已经从高峰的5.05降到了现在的1.39,目前市值已经跟净资产相差无几了,未来如果持续继续走跌的话,阿里巴巴很可能变成类似银行股一样的破净,这是一个完全无法想象的情况,对于一家超级大型的互联网公司,居然要破净,反正我是不相信,我现在只认阿里巴巴的投资价值了。\n 阿里巴巴的ROE提升了\n 很多人一直关注阿里巴巴的PE下滑了,但是阿里巴巴2021年的PE实际是不准的,因为阿里巴巴被罚了180亿,这180亿的影响必然会带来市盈率的下滑,同时为了避锋芒,阿里巴巴也进行了大规模的计提,这种藏利润的情况下,阿里巴巴的市盈率已经不准了,所以需要去看其他的盈利指标,比如ROE。\n 根据测算2021年阿里的ROE将达到17.6%,ROE相对于2020年已经提升了,说明2021年阿里巴巴的经营情况实际是转好的。\n 阿里巴巴的底已经触及,低估也是明显\n 很多人怀疑芒格的能力,认为芒格已经老了,实际只是投资者自己的能力不行了,阿里巴巴目前的价值是显而易见的。(文章来源:菩老投资)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634465108,"gmtCreate":1647613629863,"gmtModify":1647613629863,"author":{"id":"3572227539531130","authorId":"3572227539531130","name":"dm007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3def946b322ec90acd3669c107e57f4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572227539531130","authorIdStr":"3572227539531130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/YANG 20220414 26.0 PUT\">$YANG 20220414 26.0 PUT$ </a>嗯","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/YANG 20220414 26.0 PUT\">$YANG 20220414 26.0 PUT$ 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09:45","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"腾讯控股跌近4%,再度失守400港元关口","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157318785","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月7日讯,腾讯控股跌近4%,再度失守400港元关口,创2020年5月以来新低。","content":"<p>3月7日讯,腾讯控股跌近4%,再度失守400港元关口,创2020年5月以来新低。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c516dc94a07636a7120928cccc7bc6d8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>腾讯控股跌近4%,再度失守400港元关口</title>\n<style 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c516dc94a07636a7120928cccc7bc6d8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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10:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中概股强势逆袭!拼多多京东阿里集体狂飙,发生了什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2208339905","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"电商三巨头纷纷走高,一夜市值大增2900亿。纳斯达克金龙中国指数涨超10%,中概ETF KWEB和CQQQ分别涨超9%和近6%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本月周一美股市场上,中概股上演了一场久违的大反弹,热门中概股普遍飙高,新能源汽车股全线上涨。</p><p>电商三巨头纷纷走高,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨12.8%领跑纳斯达克100成分股,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>收涨约8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>收涨9%,三巨头市值共飙升457亿美元,约合2900亿人民币。</p><p>据悉,在今年央视春晚直播期间,京东共发放总价值达15亿元的红包和实物,邀请<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>互动。官方数据显示,从央视虎年春晚开始至23点,全球华人参与京东App红包累计互动量达523亿次。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2376c33d3a2f5032453eb430a6c55fe0\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"821\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>新能源汽车股集体上涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车收涨逾17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超8%。</p><p>消息面上,近日蔚来汽车官方正式公布旗下第五款车型ET5首批生产线验证样已于1月23日在合肥工厂下线,按照此前计划,该车将于今年9月开启交付。</p><p>ET5是蔚来在NIO Day 2021上发布的第二款轿车,定位低于ET7,设计偏运动,整车购买75kWh电池车型补贴前售价32.8万元,100kWh电池车型补贴前售价38.6万元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d139d6be3cec5b26b467c32afe71e75f\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>其他中概股中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YSG\">逸仙电商</a>收涨逾24%领跑,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">达达集团</a>涨近19%,网易有道、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">趣头条</a>涨超17%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUCKIN\">瑞幸咖啡</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>涨超16%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>收涨超15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>涨超15%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>涨超14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>涨超13%,悦刻电子烟母公司雾芯科技、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">虎牙</a>涨超12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚买菜</a>、欢聚时代和涨超11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JZXN\">九紫新能</a>、陌陌、趣活、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QFIN\">360数科</a>涨超10%,百度涨超9%。</p><p>纳斯达克金龙中国指数涨超10%,中概ETF KWEB和CQQQ分别涨超9%和近6%。</p><p>隔夜中概股走势延续了港股科技股在牛年最后一个交易日的如虹涨势。1月31日,恒生指数收涨1.07%,恒生科技指数涨超2%。</p><p>2022年以来,在美联储加息、缩表预期愈演愈烈的背景下,金融资产大幅承压,科技股首当其冲。1月31日,多位美联储官员紧急“灭火”,缓解市场对美联储可能快速紧缩的担忧。</p><p>2024年有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的旧金山联储主席Mary Daly表示,<b>美联储(的货币政策行动)并不滞后于曲线,FOMC应当渐进地转变货币政策,“步伐要是渐近式的,不能具有破坏性。”</b></p><p><b>几天前刚刚放话称需要的话可以一次加息50基点的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一澄清说,“加息50个基点不是他在3月份的首选政策行动”。他补充称,“美联储的政策进程并不是一成不变的”,我们“应该进行几次利率调整,然后缩减资产负债表规模。”</b></p><p>隔夜美股科技股普遍走高,纳斯达克综合指数高开高走,收涨3.41%,刷新上周五所创的去年3月9日以来最大收盘涨幅,连续两个交易日涨超3%,报14239.88点,创1月19日以来新高。</p><p>Alpine Woods Capital Investors的基金经理Sarah Hunt表示,美联储的鹰派立场导致科技股下跌,这为投资者提供了逢低买入的机会。</p><p>在接受彭博采访时,Hunt表示,一些遭受打击的科技股有很多机会,“有些公司在很长一段时间内都发展得相当好。一些股票受到了冲击,我认为这些股票的价值还不错。”</p><p>本月初,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>策略师表示,中概互联网公司进入“希望”状态,建议买入中概互联网公司。</p><p>高盛策略师Kinger Lau表示,对于此前在监管整顿中受重创的互联网公司来说,其周期可能正从上一阶段过渡到“希望”阶段。</p><p><b>他预计监管方面将变得更加清晰且有所改善,对互联网行业是个好兆头。</b>他指出:</p><blockquote>中概股在去年大幅回调后将表现良好,建议可以买入。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中概股强势逆袭!拼多多京东阿里集体狂飙,发生了什么?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中概股强势逆袭!拼多多京东阿里集体狂飙,发生了什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-01 10:18 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651076><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本月周一美股市场上,中概股上演了一场久违的大反弹,热门中概股普遍飙高,新能源汽车股全线上涨。电商三巨头纷纷走高,拼多多涨12.8%领跑纳斯达克100成分股,京东收涨约8%,阿里巴巴收涨9%,三巨头市值共飙升457亿美元,约合2900亿人民币。据悉,在今年央视春晚直播期间,京东共发放总价值达15亿元的红包和实物,邀请全民互动。官方数据显示,从央视虎年春晚开始至23点,全球华人参与京东App红包累计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651076\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/468fad6959bf869d187e8f577559a4ab","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK1502":"双十一","BK1575":"同股不同权","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","JD":"京东","09618":"京东集团-SW","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","PDD":"拼多多","BK4558":"双十一","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","NIO":"蔚来","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3651076","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2208339905","content_text":"本月周一美股市场上,中概股上演了一场久违的大反弹,热门中概股普遍飙高,新能源汽车股全线上涨。电商三巨头纷纷走高,拼多多涨12.8%领跑纳斯达克100成分股,京东收涨约8%,阿里巴巴收涨9%,三巨头市值共飙升457亿美元,约合2900亿人民币。据悉,在今年央视春晚直播期间,京东共发放总价值达15亿元的红包和实物,邀请全民互动。官方数据显示,从央视虎年春晚开始至23点,全球华人参与京东App红包累计互动量达523亿次。新能源汽车股集体上涨,蔚来汽车收涨逾17%,小鹏汽车涨超9%,理想汽车涨超8%。消息面上,近日蔚来汽车官方正式公布旗下第五款车型ET5首批生产线验证样已于1月23日在合肥工厂下线,按照此前计划,该车将于今年9月开启交付。ET5是蔚来在NIO Day 2021上发布的第二款轿车,定位低于ET7,设计偏运动,整车购买75kWh电池车型补贴前售价32.8万元,100kWh电池车型补贴前售价38.6万元。其他中概股中,逸仙电商收涨逾24%领跑,达达集团涨近19%,网易有道、趣头条涨超17%,瑞幸咖啡、知乎、爱奇艺涨超16%,哔哩哔哩收涨超15%,贝壳涨超15%,金山云涨超14%,满帮和唯品会涨超13%,悦刻电子烟母公司雾芯科技、微博、虎牙涨超12%,叮咚买菜、欢聚时代和涨超11%,腾讯音乐、九紫新能、陌陌、趣活、360数科涨超10%,百度涨超9%。纳斯达克金龙中国指数涨超10%,中概ETF KWEB和CQQQ分别涨超9%和近6%。隔夜中概股走势延续了港股科技股在牛年最后一个交易日的如虹涨势。1月31日,恒生指数收涨1.07%,恒生科技指数涨超2%。2022年以来,在美联储加息、缩表预期愈演愈烈的背景下,金融资产大幅承压,科技股首当其冲。1月31日,多位美联储官员紧急“灭火”,缓解市场对美联储可能快速紧缩的担忧。2024年有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的旧金山联储主席Mary Daly表示,美联储(的货币政策行动)并不滞后于曲线,FOMC应当渐进地转变货币政策,“步伐要是渐近式的,不能具有破坏性。”几天前刚刚放话称需要的话可以一次加息50基点的亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克周一澄清说,“加息50个基点不是他在3月份的首选政策行动”。他补充称,“美联储的政策进程并不是一成不变的”,我们“应该进行几次利率调整,然后缩减资产负债表规模。”隔夜美股科技股普遍走高,纳斯达克综合指数高开高走,收涨3.41%,刷新上周五所创的去年3月9日以来最大收盘涨幅,连续两个交易日涨超3%,报14239.88点,创1月19日以来新高。Alpine Woods Capital Investors的基金经理Sarah Hunt表示,美联储的鹰派立场导致科技股下跌,这为投资者提供了逢低买入的机会。在接受彭博采访时,Hunt表示,一些遭受打击的科技股有很多机会,“有些公司在很长一段时间内都发展得相当好。一些股票受到了冲击,我认为这些股票的价值还不错。”本月初,高盛策略师表示,中概互联网公司进入“希望”状态,建议买入中概互联网公司。高盛策略师Kinger Lau表示,对于此前在监管整顿中受重创的互联网公司来说,其周期可能正从上一阶段过渡到“希望”阶段。他预计监管方面将变得更加清晰且有所改善,对互联网行业是个好兆头。他指出:中概股在去年大幅回调后将表现良好,建议可以买入。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633035541,"gmtCreate":1643545350107,"gmtModify":1643545350107,"author":{"id":"3572227539531130","authorId":"3572227539531130","name":"dm007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3def946b322ec90acd3669c107e57f4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572227539531130","authorIdStr":"3572227539531130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买了call期权 希望能赚点","listText":"买了call期权 希望能赚点","text":"买了call期权 希望能赚点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633035541","repostId":"1176211752","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176211752","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643270956,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176211752?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-27 16:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | AMD营收将跃升,数据中心颇具看点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176211752","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"芯片巨头Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)将于2月1日美股盘后公布2021财年第四季度业绩。预计四季度营收、毛利率将同比跃升;随着云服务三大巨头对AMD的EPYC服务器芯片采用率不","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>芯片巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">Advanced Micro Devices</a>(AMD)将于2月1日美股盘后公布2021财年第四季度业绩。预计四季度营收、毛利率将同比跃升;随着云服务三大巨头对AMD的EPYC服务器芯片采用率不断提高,四季度数据中心业务仍颇具看点;游戏机需求火热也有望助力半定制芯片收入持续增长。</p><p><b>三季度业绩回顾</b></p><p><b>1、 营收和EPS超预期, 非GAAP运营利润翻倍</b></p><p>AMD三季度营收43亿美元,高于公司官方指引的区间上限42亿美元,也高于分析师预期的41.2亿美元,同比增54%、环比增12%。调整后EPS为每股收益0.73美元,高于预期的0.67美元和二季度的0.63美元,同比增78%。</p><p>当季毛利率同比跃升超4个百分点至48%,比二季度也走高0.8个百分点,主要因霄龙(EPYC)、锐龙(Ryzen)和镭龙(Radeon)等个人电脑、数据中心和游戏机芯片的销售组合更丰富。</p><p>非GAAP项下的运营利润为11亿美元,较2020年同期翻倍,也高于二季度的9.24亿美元。非GAAP净利润8.93亿美元,同比增78%,环比增近15%。自由现金流环比降至7.64亿美元,二季度曾达到创纪录新高的8.88亿美元。当季还回购了7.5亿美元的股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fc43546cf784bfce77d0a09ac5c9e2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>2、数据中心销售额同比翻倍,第三代EPYC处理器出货量显著增长</b></p><p>分业务来看,容纳台式机和笔记本处理器的计算和图形事业部三季度收入24亿美元,同比增44%,环比增7%,受到锐龙、镭龙和AMD Instinct处理器销量增长的推动,客户端CPU和GPU平均销价(ASP)同比和环比均增长。</p><p>包括数据中心和视频游戏机芯片的企业、嵌入式和半定制部门收入19亿美元,同比增69%,环比增20%,继续由更高的EPYC处理器和半定制产品销售增长来推动。该部门的运营利润同比增284%至5.42亿美元,即是去年同期1.41亿美元近四倍。</p><p>AMD总裁兼首席执行官苏姿丰博士(Dr. Lisa Su)称:</p><blockquote>“随着数据中心销售额同比翻倍,第三代EPYC处理器出货量在三季度显著增长。我们的业务在2021年明显加速,增速超过了整体行业和市场水平。”</blockquote><p><b>四季度业绩有哪些看点?</b></p><p><b>1、公司预测四季度营收同比增长39%</b></p><p>AMD预计四季度的收入约为45亿美元,上下浮动1亿美元,同比增长约39%,环比增长约4%。预计同比增长将受到所有业务增长的推动,预计环比增长将受到更高的服务器和半定制收入的推动。</p><p>公司预计2021年第四季度的非GAAP毛利率约为49.5%。对于2021年全年,AMD预计收入将在所有业务增长的推动下同比增长约65%,高于之前的60%预测;预计2021年全年的非GAAP毛利率约为48%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8e5f5bd7c378f7d941f3eebec066224\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>2、数据中心业务颇具看点</b></p><p>数据中心是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>最为看重的业务,分析师担忧<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>推出更先进的产品会加剧竞争。根据passmark的数据,在服务器市场中,AMD四季度的市场份额由三季度的8.4%下降到了5.9%,截至2022年1月26日,AMD今年一季度市场的份额进一步下降至2.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2cfe7bf733d863e0bfd83d961237ad6\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>但AMD管理层信心满满。随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>这云服务三大巨头对AMD的EPYC服务器芯片采用率不断提高,AMD有望从市场领先者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>手中夺取市场份额,四季度AMD数据中心业务仍颇具看点。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta</a>数据中心将使用AMD生产的EPYC(霄龙)服务器芯片,与Meta的合作将进一步巩固其与英特尔和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的竞争优势。据悉微软也将在Azure云计算服务中使用EPYC Milan-X芯片。</p><p>AMD计划于2022年第一季度上市“EPYC Milan-X”处理器,该处理器采用3D V-Cache技术,在保留Zen 3架构的同时,通过增加缓存进一步提高处理器在密集型工作负载计算时的性能。</p><p>此外,AMD还计划在2022年底发布基于Zen 4c的128核EPYC Bergamo服务器。EPYC Genoa服务器和EPYC Bergamo服务器的内核数量将大大高于英特尔的Sapphire Rapids,并将基于台积电(TSM)的5纳米节点,而英特尔的产品目前还是10纳米。</p><p><b>3、游戏机需求火热助力半定制芯片收入持续增长</b></p><p>由于对微软Xbox和索尼Playstation 5游戏机需求量非常强劲,随着AMD进一步增加供应来满足需求,预计四季度的半定制芯片收入环比和同比将保持增长。</p><p>AMD还计划在2022年一季度收购全球最大可程式化逻辑元件厂<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">赛灵思</a>(Xilinx),通过收购 Xilinx,AMD希望将其业务拓展到可定制的芯片产品市场(FPGA)。其允许用户针对特定的用例,将原本依赖 CPU系统的工作,交给效率更高的 FPGA加速器来运行。</p><p>在 FPGA市场,Xilinx与 Intel算是两大主要参与者。通过收购 Xilinx,AMD有望在更多市场向 Intel发起有力的挑战。</p><p><b>分析师观点</b></p><p><b>Piper Sandler分析师Harsh Kumar将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>的评级从“增持”下调至“中性”。</b></p><p>该分析师对汽车行业芯片需求将变得更广泛的观点持谨慎态度,他认为,随着供应链在2022年下半年将逐步恢复正常,可能会“削弱”芯片订单量和供应商对芯片的定价能力。</p><p>Kumar表示,一旦供需恢复平衡,芯片订单的增长速度可能会低于过去几年的速度。在综合考虑到2022年里个人电脑市场将放缓、收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">赛灵思</a>(XLNX.US)会对收益增长带来一定的阻力,以及围绕在高估值倍数与高增长科技股的不确定性后,他下调美国超微公司的评级,同时,他认为目前股价下行概率较上行大。</p><p><b>投行KeyBanc在最新研报中对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>业绩非常看好,其预估四季度营收将达到46.33亿美元,创造历史新高,同比增幅更是达到42%。</b>这一数字高于AMD自己预期的46亿美元,也高于华尔街预期的45.2亿美元。</p><p>虽然AMD在四季度并未上市换代新品,但既有的锐龙5000系列和EPYC表现依旧强劲,KeyBanc称AMD在服务器CPU市场的份额已经增加到11~12%,2022年内将达到20%。</p><p><b>彭博社一致预期</b></p><p>根据彭博社一致预期,AMD四季度营收预计为45.1亿美元,调整后净利润为9.22亿美元,调整后EPS为0.755美元。</p><p>在彭博社调查的46位分析师中,有26位给予“买入”评级,17位给予“持有”评级,3位给予“卖出”评级。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | AMD营收将跃升,数据中心颇具看点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | AMD营收将跃升,数据中心颇具看点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-27 16:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>芯片巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">Advanced Micro Devices</a>(AMD)将于2月1日美股盘后公布2021财年第四季度业绩。预计四季度营收、毛利率将同比跃升;随着云服务三大巨头对AMD的EPYC服务器芯片采用率不断提高,四季度数据中心业务仍颇具看点;游戏机需求火热也有望助力半定制芯片收入持续增长。</p><p><b>三季度业绩回顾</b></p><p><b>1、 营收和EPS超预期, 非GAAP运营利润翻倍</b></p><p>AMD三季度营收43亿美元,高于公司官方指引的区间上限42亿美元,也高于分析师预期的41.2亿美元,同比增54%、环比增12%。调整后EPS为每股收益0.73美元,高于预期的0.67美元和二季度的0.63美元,同比增78%。</p><p>当季毛利率同比跃升超4个百分点至48%,比二季度也走高0.8个百分点,主要因霄龙(EPYC)、锐龙(Ryzen)和镭龙(Radeon)等个人电脑、数据中心和游戏机芯片的销售组合更丰富。</p><p>非GAAP项下的运营利润为11亿美元,较2020年同期翻倍,也高于二季度的9.24亿美元。非GAAP净利润8.93亿美元,同比增78%,环比增近15%。自由现金流环比降至7.64亿美元,二季度曾达到创纪录新高的8.88亿美元。当季还回购了7.5亿美元的股票。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84fc43546cf784bfce77d0a09ac5c9e2\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>2、数据中心销售额同比翻倍,第三代EPYC处理器出货量显著增长</b></p><p>分业务来看,容纳台式机和笔记本处理器的计算和图形事业部三季度收入24亿美元,同比增44%,环比增7%,受到锐龙、镭龙和AMD Instinct处理器销量增长的推动,客户端CPU和GPU平均销价(ASP)同比和环比均增长。</p><p>包括数据中心和视频游戏机芯片的企业、嵌入式和半定制部门收入19亿美元,同比增69%,环比增20%,继续由更高的EPYC处理器和半定制产品销售增长来推动。该部门的运营利润同比增284%至5.42亿美元,即是去年同期1.41亿美元近四倍。</p><p>AMD总裁兼首席执行官苏姿丰博士(Dr. Lisa Su)称:</p><blockquote>“随着数据中心销售额同比翻倍,第三代EPYC处理器出货量在三季度显著增长。我们的业务在2021年明显加速,增速超过了整体行业和市场水平。”</blockquote><p><b>四季度业绩有哪些看点?</b></p><p><b>1、公司预测四季度营收同比增长39%</b></p><p>AMD预计四季度的收入约为45亿美元,上下浮动1亿美元,同比增长约39%,环比增长约4%。预计同比增长将受到所有业务增长的推动,预计环比增长将受到更高的服务器和半定制收入的推动。</p><p>公司预计2021年第四季度的非GAAP毛利率约为49.5%。对于2021年全年,AMD预计收入将在所有业务增长的推动下同比增长约65%,高于之前的60%预测;预计2021年全年的非GAAP毛利率约为48%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8e5f5bd7c378f7d941f3eebec066224\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>2、数据中心业务颇具看点</b></p><p>数据中心是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>最为看重的业务,分析师担忧<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>推出更先进的产品会加剧竞争。根据passmark的数据,在服务器市场中,AMD四季度的市场份额由三季度的8.4%下降到了5.9%,截至2022年1月26日,AMD今年一季度市场的份额进一步下降至2.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2cfe7bf733d863e0bfd83d961237ad6\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>但AMD管理层信心满满。随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>这云服务三大巨头对AMD的EPYC服务器芯片采用率不断提高,AMD有望从市场领先者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>手中夺取市场份额,四季度AMD数据中心业务仍颇具看点。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta</a>数据中心将使用AMD生产的EPYC(霄龙)服务器芯片,与Meta的合作将进一步巩固其与英特尔和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的竞争优势。据悉微软也将在Azure云计算服务中使用EPYC Milan-X芯片。</p><p>AMD计划于2022年第一季度上市“EPYC Milan-X”处理器,该处理器采用3D V-Cache技术,在保留Zen 3架构的同时,通过增加缓存进一步提高处理器在密集型工作负载计算时的性能。</p><p>此外,AMD还计划在2022年底发布基于Zen 4c的128核EPYC Bergamo服务器。EPYC Genoa服务器和EPYC Bergamo服务器的内核数量将大大高于英特尔的Sapphire Rapids,并将基于台积电(TSM)的5纳米节点,而英特尔的产品目前还是10纳米。</p><p><b>3、游戏机需求火热助力半定制芯片收入持续增长</b></p><p>由于对微软Xbox和索尼Playstation 5游戏机需求量非常强劲,随着AMD进一步增加供应来满足需求,预计四季度的半定制芯片收入环比和同比将保持增长。</p><p>AMD还计划在2022年一季度收购全球最大可程式化逻辑元件厂<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">赛灵思</a>(Xilinx),通过收购 Xilinx,AMD希望将其业务拓展到可定制的芯片产品市场(FPGA)。其允许用户针对特定的用例,将原本依赖 CPU系统的工作,交给效率更高的 FPGA加速器来运行。</p><p>在 FPGA市场,Xilinx与 Intel算是两大主要参与者。通过收购 Xilinx,AMD有望在更多市场向 Intel发起有力的挑战。</p><p><b>分析师观点</b></p><p><b>Piper Sandler分析师Harsh Kumar将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>的评级从“增持”下调至“中性”。</b></p><p>该分析师对汽车行业芯片需求将变得更广泛的观点持谨慎态度,他认为,随着供应链在2022年下半年将逐步恢复正常,可能会“削弱”芯片订单量和供应商对芯片的定价能力。</p><p>Kumar表示,一旦供需恢复平衡,芯片订单的增长速度可能会低于过去几年的速度。在综合考虑到2022年里个人电脑市场将放缓、收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">赛灵思</a>(XLNX.US)会对收益增长带来一定的阻力,以及围绕在高估值倍数与高增长科技股的不确定性后,他下调美国超微公司的评级,同时,他认为目前股价下行概率较上行大。</p><p><b>投行KeyBanc在最新研报中对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>业绩非常看好,其预估四季度营收将达到46.33亿美元,创造历史新高,同比增幅更是达到42%。</b>这一数字高于AMD自己预期的46亿美元,也高于华尔街预期的45.2亿美元。</p><p>虽然AMD在四季度并未上市换代新品,但既有的锐龙5000系列和EPYC表现依旧强劲,KeyBanc称AMD在服务器CPU市场的份额已经增加到11~12%,2022年内将达到20%。</p><p><b>彭博社一致预期</b></p><p>根据彭博社一致预期,AMD四季度营收预计为45.1亿美元,调整后净利润为9.22亿美元,调整后EPS为0.755美元。</p><p>在彭博社调查的46位分析师中,有26位给予“买入”评级,17位给予“持有”评级,3位给予“卖出”评级。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26aa6dd0cd13271f7f8a7d8f5f31c44","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176211752","content_text":"芯片巨头Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)将于2月1日美股盘后公布2021财年第四季度业绩。预计四季度营收、毛利率将同比跃升;随着云服务三大巨头对AMD的EPYC服务器芯片采用率不断提高,四季度数据中心业务仍颇具看点;游戏机需求火热也有望助力半定制芯片收入持续增长。三季度业绩回顾1、 营收和EPS超预期, 非GAAP运营利润翻倍AMD三季度营收43亿美元,高于公司官方指引的区间上限42亿美元,也高于分析师预期的41.2亿美元,同比增54%、环比增12%。调整后EPS为每股收益0.73美元,高于预期的0.67美元和二季度的0.63美元,同比增78%。当季毛利率同比跃升超4个百分点至48%,比二季度也走高0.8个百分点,主要因霄龙(EPYC)、锐龙(Ryzen)和镭龙(Radeon)等个人电脑、数据中心和游戏机芯片的销售组合更丰富。非GAAP项下的运营利润为11亿美元,较2020年同期翻倍,也高于二季度的9.24亿美元。非GAAP净利润8.93亿美元,同比增78%,环比增近15%。自由现金流环比降至7.64亿美元,二季度曾达到创纪录新高的8.88亿美元。当季还回购了7.5亿美元的股票。2、数据中心销售额同比翻倍,第三代EPYC处理器出货量显著增长分业务来看,容纳台式机和笔记本处理器的计算和图形事业部三季度收入24亿美元,同比增44%,环比增7%,受到锐龙、镭龙和AMD Instinct处理器销量增长的推动,客户端CPU和GPU平均销价(ASP)同比和环比均增长。包括数据中心和视频游戏机芯片的企业、嵌入式和半定制部门收入19亿美元,同比增69%,环比增20%,继续由更高的EPYC处理器和半定制产品销售增长来推动。该部门的运营利润同比增284%至5.42亿美元,即是去年同期1.41亿美元近四倍。AMD总裁兼首席执行官苏姿丰博士(Dr. Lisa Su)称:“随着数据中心销售额同比翻倍,第三代EPYC处理器出货量在三季度显著增长。我们的业务在2021年明显加速,增速超过了整体行业和市场水平。”四季度业绩有哪些看点?1、公司预测四季度营收同比增长39%AMD预计四季度的收入约为45亿美元,上下浮动1亿美元,同比增长约39%,环比增长约4%。预计同比增长将受到所有业务增长的推动,预计环比增长将受到更高的服务器和半定制收入的推动。公司预计2021年第四季度的非GAAP毛利率约为49.5%。对于2021年全年,AMD预计收入将在所有业务增长的推动下同比增长约65%,高于之前的60%预测;预计2021年全年的非GAAP毛利率约为48%。2、数据中心业务颇具看点数据中心是AMD最为看重的业务,分析师担忧英特尔推出更先进的产品会加剧竞争。根据passmark的数据,在服务器市场中,AMD四季度的市场份额由三季度的8.4%下降到了5.9%,截至2022年1月26日,AMD今年一季度市场的份额进一步下降至2.2%。但AMD管理层信心满满。随着亚马逊、微软和谷歌这云服务三大巨头对AMD的EPYC服务器芯片采用率不断提高,AMD有望从市场领先者英特尔手中夺取市场份额,四季度AMD数据中心业务仍颇具看点。Meta数据中心将使用AMD生产的EPYC(霄龙)服务器芯片,与Meta的合作将进一步巩固其与英特尔和英伟达的竞争优势。据悉微软也将在Azure云计算服务中使用EPYC Milan-X芯片。AMD计划于2022年第一季度上市“EPYC Milan-X”处理器,该处理器采用3D V-Cache技术,在保留Zen 3架构的同时,通过增加缓存进一步提高处理器在密集型工作负载计算时的性能。此外,AMD还计划在2022年底发布基于Zen 4c的128核EPYC Bergamo服务器。EPYC Genoa服务器和EPYC Bergamo服务器的内核数量将大大高于英特尔的Sapphire Rapids,并将基于台积电(TSM)的5纳米节点,而英特尔的产品目前还是10纳米。3、游戏机需求火热助力半定制芯片收入持续增长由于对微软Xbox和索尼Playstation 5游戏机需求量非常强劲,随着AMD进一步增加供应来满足需求,预计四季度的半定制芯片收入环比和同比将保持增长。AMD还计划在2022年一季度收购全球最大可程式化逻辑元件厂赛灵思(Xilinx),通过收购 Xilinx,AMD希望将其业务拓展到可定制的芯片产品市场(FPGA)。其允许用户针对特定的用例,将原本依赖 CPU系统的工作,交给效率更高的 FPGA加速器来运行。在 FPGA市场,Xilinx与 Intel算是两大主要参与者。通过收购 Xilinx,AMD有望在更多市场向 Intel发起有力的挑战。分析师观点Piper Sandler分析师Harsh Kumar将AMD的评级从“增持”下调至“中性”。该分析师对汽车行业芯片需求将变得更广泛的观点持谨慎态度,他认为,随着供应链在2022年下半年将逐步恢复正常,可能会“削弱”芯片订单量和供应商对芯片的定价能力。Kumar表示,一旦供需恢复平衡,芯片订单的增长速度可能会低于过去几年的速度。在综合考虑到2022年里个人电脑市场将放缓、收购赛灵思(XLNX.US)会对收益增长带来一定的阻力,以及围绕在高估值倍数与高增长科技股的不确定性后,他下调美国超微公司的评级,同时,他认为目前股价下行概率较上行大。投行KeyBanc在最新研报中对AMD业绩非常看好,其预估四季度营收将达到46.33亿美元,创造历史新高,同比增幅更是达到42%。这一数字高于AMD自己预期的46亿美元,也高于华尔街预期的45.2亿美元。虽然AMD在四季度并未上市换代新品,但既有的锐龙5000系列和EPYC表现依旧强劲,KeyBanc称AMD在服务器CPU市场的份额已经增加到11~12%,2022年内将达到20%。彭博社一致预期根据彭博社一致预期,AMD四季度营收预计为45.1亿美元,调整后净利润为9.22亿美元,调整后EPS为0.755美元。在彭博社调查的46位分析师中,有26位给予“买入”评级,17位给予“持有”评级,3位给予“卖出”评级。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639882918,"gmtCreate":1643248187071,"gmtModify":1643248187071,"author":{"id":"3572227539531130","authorId":"3572227539531130","name":"dm007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3def946b322ec90acd3669c107e57f4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572227539531130","authorIdStr":"3572227539531130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a>太狠了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a>太狠了","text":"$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$太狠了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639882918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639174998,"gmtCreate":1643227741427,"gmtModify":1643227741427,"author":{"id":"3572227539531130","authorId":"3572227539531130","name":"dm007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3def946b322ec90acd3669c107e57f4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572227539531130","authorIdStr":"3572227539531130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这韭菜割的。。。","listText":"这韭菜割的。。。","text":"这韭菜割的。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639174998","repostId":"1111200075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111200075","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1643225521,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111200075?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-27 03:32","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔暗示3月可能加息,美股三大指数集体转跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111200075","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间1月27日03:30,美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,随着通货膨胀加剧和劳动力市场强劲,我们将继续调整政策;奥密克戎毒株肯定会影响本季度的经济增长;奥密克戎毒株感染病例预计将迅速下降;如果","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>北京时间1月27日03:30,美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,随着通货膨胀加剧和劳动力市场强劲,我们将继续调整政策;奥密克戎毒株肯定会影响本季度的经济增长;奥密克戎毒株感染病例预计将迅速下降;如果这波疫情很快过去,经济影响也应该很快消散。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71183dbbf8443f4f474d58955312619f\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔暗示3月份可能加息,美股快速下挫,三大指数集体转跌。截至目前,道指跌0.65%,标普500指数跌0.45%,纳指跌0.29%。</p><p><b>即时市场评论:</b>美联储观察家:鲍威尔在发布会上的表述听起来对未来充满热情,不过措辞的技术方面的偏向鹰派。鲍威尔说认为资产负债表不能替代利率,意味着转向量化紧缩(QT)不会向2017年那样替代季度加息。</p><p>Spartan资本证券首席市场经济学家Cardillo:鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节制造了一些不确定性,我认为这是市场做出反应的原因。鲍威尔说通胀可能恶化,供应瓶颈可能更糟糕,这番表述应该是试图让市场为情况恶化做好准备,并试图平衡一些恐慌因素。但这番表述正在营造一种不确定的氛围,这对市场是不利的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d756866d3ed6bcc52797edcd912070ef\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>鲍威尔表示,劳动力市场取得了显著进展;劳动力市场的改善是普遍的;工资正在以多年来最快的速度增长;劳动参与率略有上升,但仍然低迷;当前的疫情可能会延长对劳动力的影响;通货膨胀仍然远远高于我们的长期目标。</p><p>瓶颈在于供应限制了产量;我们正在关注工资增长会影响到价格的风险;通货膨胀预计将在今年内下降;正仔细观察经济发展是否符合预期;长期扩张需要价格稳定;相信对就业最有利的就是推动扩张。</p><p>考虑到通货膨胀和就业,经济不再需要持续的高水平支持;经济前景仍然高度不确定,需要保持谦逊;准备好为实现目标做出适当的回应。</p><p>联邦基金利率是我们的主要政策手段;货币政策需要“灵活”;缩减资产负债表将发生在加息开始之后;缩表将以可预测的方式发生;还没有就缩减资产负债表的时机和速度做出决定;将准备调整缩表途径的一切细节;我们不可能满怀信心地预测政策的走向。</p><p>将需要应对交叉的、双边的风险;这些差异将对加息速度产生影响;我们将以数据和不断变化的前景为指导;除此之外,没有做出任何决定;现在的经济状况与2015年非常不同。</p><p>我们的两大任务都在呼吁我们放弃高度宽松的政策;随着更多人重返劳动力市场,最高就业水平可能会提高;我们正在考虑的政策路径将支持这一结果。</p><p>对美联储加息的支持非常广泛;不排除在每次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议上都加息;提高利率的空间很大;准备使用工具,以确保高价格不会站稳脚跟;财政对经济增长的推动力将大大降低,这也有助于抑制通货膨胀。</p><p>这次会议为(缩表)决策制定了指引;在接下来的会议中,我们将花时间讨论这个过程;下一次会议我们将讨论有关缩减资产负债表的更多细节;美联储仍在讨论如何缩小其资产负债表规模;当前的经济形势意味着我们可以比上次行动得更早,甚至更快;我们确实希望通过调整再投资来减少资产负债表。</p><p>我们对联邦基金利率如何影响金融状况有了更清晰的认识;我们最终关注的是实体经济;金融状况对美联储的两个目标的影响程度至关重要;对缩减资产负债表的规模、构成和速度无法透露太多;对市场来说,资产负债表是一个相对较新的东西。</p><p>我们打算在3月份的会议上提高利率;我们确实预期奥密克戎毒株疫情会有所消退,但认为这只是暂时的;我们确实预计今年供应链问题将会消退,但比预期的要慢;在不损害劳动力市场的情况下,有足够的空间提高利率;我们很清楚,目前的经济不同于上一次紧缩周期;增加、缩减资产负债表的过程很复杂。</p><p>是时候停止购买资产,然后在适当的时候缩减资产负债表了;还有大量的关于缩减资产负债表的工作要做;在我们开始加息之后,我们将转向资产负债表。</p><p>美联储将在第一次加息后至少召开一次会议来就资产负债表做决定;高通胀有可能会持续下去,尽管这不是我们的基本情况;我们必须能够解决所有可能的结果;我们需要的是另一个长期扩张;回归扩张将需要价格稳定;新冠肺炎还没有结束,可能会继续发展并损害经济增长;另一个风险是供应链出现进一步问题。</p><p>东欧局势也是一个风险;自去年12月会议以来,通货膨胀情况略有恶化;倾向于提高我的PCE通胀预测;如果通胀进一步恶化,政策将予以解决;需要转向“显著不那么宽松的政策”;最终会在供应方面得到缓解,尽管所需时间比预期的要长;我们的目标是把通货膨胀率降回2%;不知道货币政策何时会收紧。</p><p>尚未就加息幅度做出决定;我们完全理解这与美联储上次加息的情况不同;前景相当不确定,需要根据前景的不确定性做出调整。</p><p>我们认为有一大批人可以重返劳动力大军,但可能不会很快发生;不会说供应链问题会在年底前解决;半导体问题将持续至“2023年以后”;我们没有希望让通胀低于2%;劳动力市场将在一段时间内保持强劲;对劳动力市场的一个重大威胁是高通胀;高通胀还剥夺了大幅加薪的好处;我们的计划是实现我们的两个目标。</p><p>我们确实监测了收益率曲线的斜率;2年-10年期国债收益率的利差在趋势范围内;美国长期主权债务是重要的全球资产;今年将是我们稳步摆脱高度宽松政策的一年;美联储监控收益率曲线,但不控制它;(加息后)我们要做的最后一件事就是缩减资产负债表;不可能确切地说政策将如何发展;我们还会开几次会讨论缩减资产负债表的问题。</p><p>不认为资产价格本身对金融稳定构成重大威胁;金融稳定的脆弱性是可控的。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔暗示3月可能加息,美股三大指数集体转跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-27 03:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>北京时间1月27日03:30,美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,随着通货膨胀加剧和劳动力市场强劲,我们将继续调整政策;奥密克戎毒株肯定会影响本季度的经济增长;奥密克戎毒株感染病例预计将迅速下降;如果这波疫情很快过去,经济影响也应该很快消散。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71183dbbf8443f4f474d58955312619f\" tg-width=\"1097\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔暗示3月份可能加息,美股快速下挫,三大指数集体转跌。截至目前,道指跌0.65%,标普500指数跌0.45%,纳指跌0.29%。</p><p><b>即时市场评论:</b>美联储观察家:鲍威尔在发布会上的表述听起来对未来充满热情,不过措辞的技术方面的偏向鹰派。鲍威尔说认为资产负债表不能替代利率,意味着转向量化紧缩(QT)不会向2017年那样替代季度加息。</p><p>Spartan资本证券首席市场经济学家Cardillo:鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节制造了一些不确定性,我认为这是市场做出反应的原因。鲍威尔说通胀可能恶化,供应瓶颈可能更糟糕,这番表述应该是试图让市场为情况恶化做好准备,并试图平衡一些恐慌因素。但这番表述正在营造一种不确定的氛围,这对市场是不利的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d756866d3ed6bcc52797edcd912070ef\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>鲍威尔表示,劳动力市场取得了显著进展;劳动力市场的改善是普遍的;工资正在以多年来最快的速度增长;劳动参与率略有上升,但仍然低迷;当前的疫情可能会延长对劳动力的影响;通货膨胀仍然远远高于我们的长期目标。</p><p>瓶颈在于供应限制了产量;我们正在关注工资增长会影响到价格的风险;通货膨胀预计将在今年内下降;正仔细观察经济发展是否符合预期;长期扩张需要价格稳定;相信对就业最有利的就是推动扩张。</p><p>考虑到通货膨胀和就业,经济不再需要持续的高水平支持;经济前景仍然高度不确定,需要保持谦逊;准备好为实现目标做出适当的回应。</p><p>联邦基金利率是我们的主要政策手段;货币政策需要“灵活”;缩减资产负债表将发生在加息开始之后;缩表将以可预测的方式发生;还没有就缩减资产负债表的时机和速度做出决定;将准备调整缩表途径的一切细节;我们不可能满怀信心地预测政策的走向。</p><p>将需要应对交叉的、双边的风险;这些差异将对加息速度产生影响;我们将以数据和不断变化的前景为指导;除此之外,没有做出任何决定;现在的经济状况与2015年非常不同。</p><p>我们的两大任务都在呼吁我们放弃高度宽松的政策;随着更多人重返劳动力市场,最高就业水平可能会提高;我们正在考虑的政策路径将支持这一结果。</p><p>对美联储加息的支持非常广泛;不排除在每次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议上都加息;提高利率的空间很大;准备使用工具,以确保高价格不会站稳脚跟;财政对经济增长的推动力将大大降低,这也有助于抑制通货膨胀。</p><p>这次会议为(缩表)决策制定了指引;在接下来的会议中,我们将花时间讨论这个过程;下一次会议我们将讨论有关缩减资产负债表的更多细节;美联储仍在讨论如何缩小其资产负债表规模;当前的经济形势意味着我们可以比上次行动得更早,甚至更快;我们确实希望通过调整再投资来减少资产负债表。</p><p>我们对联邦基金利率如何影响金融状况有了更清晰的认识;我们最终关注的是实体经济;金融状况对美联储的两个目标的影响程度至关重要;对缩减资产负债表的规模、构成和速度无法透露太多;对市场来说,资产负债表是一个相对较新的东西。</p><p>我们打算在3月份的会议上提高利率;我们确实预期奥密克戎毒株疫情会有所消退,但认为这只是暂时的;我们确实预计今年供应链问题将会消退,但比预期的要慢;在不损害劳动力市场的情况下,有足够的空间提高利率;我们很清楚,目前的经济不同于上一次紧缩周期;增加、缩减资产负债表的过程很复杂。</p><p>是时候停止购买资产,然后在适当的时候缩减资产负债表了;还有大量的关于缩减资产负债表的工作要做;在我们开始加息之后,我们将转向资产负债表。</p><p>美联储将在第一次加息后至少召开一次会议来就资产负债表做决定;高通胀有可能会持续下去,尽管这不是我们的基本情况;我们必须能够解决所有可能的结果;我们需要的是另一个长期扩张;回归扩张将需要价格稳定;新冠肺炎还没有结束,可能会继续发展并损害经济增长;另一个风险是供应链出现进一步问题。</p><p>东欧局势也是一个风险;自去年12月会议以来,通货膨胀情况略有恶化;倾向于提高我的PCE通胀预测;如果通胀进一步恶化,政策将予以解决;需要转向“显著不那么宽松的政策”;最终会在供应方面得到缓解,尽管所需时间比预期的要长;我们的目标是把通货膨胀率降回2%;不知道货币政策何时会收紧。</p><p>尚未就加息幅度做出决定;我们完全理解这与美联储上次加息的情况不同;前景相当不确定,需要根据前景的不确定性做出调整。</p><p>我们认为有一大批人可以重返劳动力大军,但可能不会很快发生;不会说供应链问题会在年底前解决;半导体问题将持续至“2023年以后”;我们没有希望让通胀低于2%;劳动力市场将在一段时间内保持强劲;对劳动力市场的一个重大威胁是高通胀;高通胀还剥夺了大幅加薪的好处;我们的计划是实现我们的两个目标。</p><p>我们确实监测了收益率曲线的斜率;2年-10年期国债收益率的利差在趋势范围内;美国长期主权债务是重要的全球资产;今年将是我们稳步摆脱高度宽松政策的一年;美联储监控收益率曲线,但不控制它;(加息后)我们要做的最后一件事就是缩减资产负债表;不可能确切地说政策将如何发展;我们还会开几次会讨论缩减资产负债表的问题。</p><p>不认为资产价格本身对金融稳定构成重大威胁;金融稳定的脆弱性是可控的。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111200075","content_text":"北京时间1月27日03:30,美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示,随着通货膨胀加剧和劳动力市场强劲,我们将继续调整政策;奥密克戎毒株肯定会影响本季度的经济增长;奥密克戎毒株感染病例预计将迅速下降;如果这波疫情很快过去,经济影响也应该很快消散。美联储主席鲍威尔暗示3月份可能加息,美股快速下挫,三大指数集体转跌。截至目前,道指跌0.65%,标普500指数跌0.45%,纳指跌0.29%。即时市场评论:美联储观察家:鲍威尔在发布会上的表述听起来对未来充满热情,不过措辞的技术方面的偏向鹰派。鲍威尔说认为资产负债表不能替代利率,意味着转向量化紧缩(QT)不会向2017年那样替代季度加息。Spartan资本证券首席市场经济学家Cardillo:鲍威尔在新闻发布会问答环节制造了一些不确定性,我认为这是市场做出反应的原因。鲍威尔说通胀可能恶化,供应瓶颈可能更糟糕,这番表述应该是试图让市场为情况恶化做好准备,并试图平衡一些恐慌因素。但这番表述正在营造一种不确定的氛围,这对市场是不利的。鲍威尔表示,劳动力市场取得了显著进展;劳动力市场的改善是普遍的;工资正在以多年来最快的速度增长;劳动参与率略有上升,但仍然低迷;当前的疫情可能会延长对劳动力的影响;通货膨胀仍然远远高于我们的长期目标。瓶颈在于供应限制了产量;我们正在关注工资增长会影响到价格的风险;通货膨胀预计将在今年内下降;正仔细观察经济发展是否符合预期;长期扩张需要价格稳定;相信对就业最有利的就是推动扩张。考虑到通货膨胀和就业,经济不再需要持续的高水平支持;经济前景仍然高度不确定,需要保持谦逊;准备好为实现目标做出适当的回应。联邦基金利率是我们的主要政策手段;货币政策需要“灵活”;缩减资产负债表将发生在加息开始之后;缩表将以可预测的方式发生;还没有就缩减资产负债表的时机和速度做出决定;将准备调整缩表途径的一切细节;我们不可能满怀信心地预测政策的走向。将需要应对交叉的、双边的风险;这些差异将对加息速度产生影响;我们将以数据和不断变化的前景为指导;除此之外,没有做出任何决定;现在的经济状况与2015年非常不同。我们的两大任务都在呼吁我们放弃高度宽松的政策;随着更多人重返劳动力市场,最高就业水平可能会提高;我们正在考虑的政策路径将支持这一结果。对美联储加息的支持非常广泛;不排除在每次美国联邦公开市场委员会会议上都加息;提高利率的空间很大;准备使用工具,以确保高价格不会站稳脚跟;财政对经济增长的推动力将大大降低,这也有助于抑制通货膨胀。这次会议为(缩表)决策制定了指引;在接下来的会议中,我们将花时间讨论这个过程;下一次会议我们将讨论有关缩减资产负债表的更多细节;美联储仍在讨论如何缩小其资产负债表规模;当前的经济形势意味着我们可以比上次行动得更早,甚至更快;我们确实希望通过调整再投资来减少资产负债表。我们对联邦基金利率如何影响金融状况有了更清晰的认识;我们最终关注的是实体经济;金融状况对美联储的两个目标的影响程度至关重要;对缩减资产负债表的规模、构成和速度无法透露太多;对市场来说,资产负债表是一个相对较新的东西。我们打算在3月份的会议上提高利率;我们确实预期奥密克戎毒株疫情会有所消退,但认为这只是暂时的;我们确实预计今年供应链问题将会消退,但比预期的要慢;在不损害劳动力市场的情况下,有足够的空间提高利率;我们很清楚,目前的经济不同于上一次紧缩周期;增加、缩减资产负债表的过程很复杂。是时候停止购买资产,然后在适当的时候缩减资产负债表了;还有大量的关于缩减资产负债表的工作要做;在我们开始加息之后,我们将转向资产负债表。美联储将在第一次加息后至少召开一次会议来就资产负债表做决定;高通胀有可能会持续下去,尽管这不是我们的基本情况;我们必须能够解决所有可能的结果;我们需要的是另一个长期扩张;回归扩张将需要价格稳定;新冠肺炎还没有结束,可能会继续发展并损害经济增长;另一个风险是供应链出现进一步问题。东欧局势也是一个风险;自去年12月会议以来,通货膨胀情况略有恶化;倾向于提高我的PCE通胀预测;如果通胀进一步恶化,政策将予以解决;需要转向“显著不那么宽松的政策”;最终会在供应方面得到缓解,尽管所需时间比预期的要长;我们的目标是把通货膨胀率降回2%;不知道货币政策何时会收紧。尚未就加息幅度做出决定;我们完全理解这与美联储上次加息的情况不同;前景相当不确定,需要根据前景的不确定性做出调整。我们认为有一大批人可以重返劳动力大军,但可能不会很快发生;不会说供应链问题会在年底前解决;半导体问题将持续至“2023年以后”;我们没有希望让通胀低于2%;劳动力市场将在一段时间内保持强劲;对劳动力市场的一个重大威胁是高通胀;高通胀还剥夺了大幅加薪的好处;我们的计划是实现我们的两个目标。我们确实监测了收益率曲线的斜率;2年-10年期国债收益率的利差在趋势范围内;美国长期主权债务是重要的全球资产;今年将是我们稳步摆脱高度宽松政策的一年;美联储监控收益率曲线,但不控制它;(加息后)我们要做的最后一件事就是缩减资产负债表;不可能确切地说政策将如何发展;我们还会开几次会讨论缩减资产负债表的问题。不认为资产价格本身对金融稳定构成重大威胁;金融稳定的脆弱性是可控的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697213388,"gmtCreate":1642484828145,"gmtModify":1642484828145,"author":{"id":"3572227539531130","authorId":"3572227539531130","name":"dm007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3def946b322ec90acd3669c107e57f4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572227539531130","authorIdStr":"3572227539531130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拉倒吧","listText":"拉倒吧","text":"拉倒吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697213388","repostId":"2203274016","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2203274016","pubTimestamp":1642389402,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2203274016?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-17 11:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中金:港股转机渐现,2022年可能是均值回归的一年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2203274016","media":"中金策略","summary":"【中金:港股转机渐现 2022年可能是均值回归的一年】近期H股明显跑赢其他市场的强劲表现印证了我们此前认为港股具有比较优势的判断。实际上,H股的这一估值比较优势也在通过港股通进一步吸引更多南向资金的流入。上周南向资金日均流入规模达到31亿港元,不仅延续了去年12月以来的强劲流入势头,更是超过此前一周日均流入总量15亿港元的两倍。近期我们不止一次指出,目前香港市场所面临的环境与2016年初和2019年初在各方面都有诸多类似之处,例如南向资金在政策转向宽松和市场估值处于低位的背景下开始流入,我们认为这一趋势在现阶段有望延续。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>摘要</b></p><p><b>近期H股明显跑赢其他市场的强劲表现印证了我们此前认为港股具有比较优势的判断。</b>实际上,H股的这一估值比较优势也在通过港股通进一步吸引更多南向资金的流入。上周南向资金日均流入规模达到31亿港元,不仅延续了去年12月以来的强劲流入势头,更是超过此前一周日均流入总量15亿港元的两倍。<b>近期我们不止一次指出,目前香港市场所面临的环境与2016年初和2019年初在各方面都有诸多类似之处,</b>例如南向资金在政策转向宽松和市场估值处于低位的背景下开始流入,<b>我们认为这一趋势在现阶段有望延续。</b></p><p><b>上周市场情绪略有所修复。</b>国内方面,12月PPI与CPI同比涨幅回落。这其中,得益于国内保供稳价政策效果逐渐显现,12月PPI环比在18个月以来首次转负。向前看,物价压力缓解可能为国内稳增长政策腾挪出更多实施空间。上周公布的12月份贸易数据也持续表现稳健。美国方面,鲍威尔参议院提名确认听证会上发言也没有如部分投资者所担心的那样明显转鹰。周三亚洲市场普遍走高,特别是港股科技股,也表明了市场情绪的部分回暖。<b>然而不确定性和变数犹存。</b>12月金融信贷数据不及预期,近期多个省份和直辖市疫情反复可能也会为消费和服务回暖平添阻力。需求相对疲弱叠加近期部分地区疫情反复持续拖累消费,<b>都表明稳增长政策发力的必要性和紧迫性</b>。海外方面,美联储多名官员表示将采取行动抑制通胀,<b>即将召开的1月份FOMC会议尤为关键。</b></p><p>往前看,我们认为在外部和监管不确定性环境下香港市场已经承受了相当的悲观情绪。我们重申在2022年展望报告《均值回归》中所提出的观点:<b>考虑到有利的政策环境和较低的估值水平,2022年港股市场可能是均值回归的一年。</b></p><p><b>市场回顾:</b>尽管上周A股和海外市场表现不尽如人意,但海外中资股市场却表现强劲。整体来看,恒生科技指数涨幅最高,达到4.82%,其次为恒生国企指数,上涨3.93%,恒生指数和MSCI中国指数则分别上涨3.79%和2.75%。板块方面,医疗保健、传媒娱乐和交通运输板块领涨,涨幅分别为6.31%、5.71%和5.71%,而多元化金融和日常消费板块表现落后,分别下跌2.08%和1.44%。</p><p>图表:MSCI中国指数上周上涨2.7%,医疗保健和传媒娱乐板块领涨</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90948ee80ba097f4cce4df481098fa8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>资料来源:FactSet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>研究部</p><p>图表:海外中资股市场上周大幅走高</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f3d349107e8d22a91af6fffb5f4a09\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>资料来源:Bloomberg,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>研究部</p><p><b>市场展望:</b>上周海外中资股市场大涨,而且跑赢A股和美股市场。尽管内外部的不确定性和市场波动性持续存在,但<b>H股明显跑赢其他市场的强劲表现印证了我们此前认为港股具有比较优势的判断</b>。实际上,H股的这一估值比较优势也在通过港股通进一步吸引更多南向资金的流入。上周,南向资金日均流入规模达到31亿港元,不仅延续了去年12月以来的强劲流入势头,更是超过此前一周日均流入总量15亿港元的两倍。<b>近期我们不止一次指出,目前香港市场所面临的环境与2016年初和2019年初在各方面都有诸多类似之处</b>(例如市场经历大幅回调、估值处于历史低位、投资者情绪低迷且观望情绪浓重、一段时间内缺乏资金流入、但政策进入放松期等等)<b>,而南向资金此时开始流入也与当时相似。</b>虽然开年以来稳增长政策方面缺乏更多进展令一部分投资者感到失望,但我们认为已经较为宽松的流动性环境、叠加明显的估值优势足以在现阶段吸引更多内资资金流入,并进而推动H股市场出现估值修复。对比自身市盈率所处的历史分位数来看,恒生指数目前与沪深300指数相比存在18%的折价。</p><p><b>此外,上周市场情绪也部分有所修复。</b>国内方面,12月PPI与CPI同比涨幅回落。这其中,得益于国内保供稳价政策效果逐渐显现,12月PPI环比在18个月以来首次转负(-1.2%)。同时12月份CPI涨幅1.5%,放缓程度也超出预期。向前看,物价压力缓解可能为国内稳增长政策腾挪出更多实施空间。上周公布的12月份贸易数据也持续表现稳健。强劲的出口推动12月中国贸易顺差攀升至历史新高945亿美元,人民币对美元汇率上周再度突破6.35,不排除也是得益于此。美国方面,市场较为关注美联储主席鲍威尔上周二在参议院提名确认听证会上发言。虽然鲍威尔承认通胀大幅攀升已经是美国货币政策短期内的重点,但基调却没有如部分投资者所担心的那样明显转鹰。总体而言,鲍威尔的发言向市场传递美联储政策立场可能不会出现明显转向的信号。鲍威尔发言后,周三亚洲市场普遍走高,特别是港股科技股,也表明了市场情绪的部分回暖。</p><p><b>然而,部分不确定性和变数犹存。</b>12月份金融信贷数据不及预期,表明贷款需求依然较为低迷。具体来看,新增中长期人民币贷款同比下降超过3000亿元;在地产行业信心趋弱背景下,抵押贷款增速也出现放缓。此外,12月新增社融增速也低于预期。好的一面是,政府债券发行规模攀升,表明财政刺激正在逐渐发力。此外,近期多个省份和直辖市疫情反复可能也会为消费和服务回暖平添阻力。<b>因此,需求相对疲弱叠加近期部分地区疫情反复持续拖累消费,都表明稳增长政策发力的必要性和紧迫性</b>。海外方面,市场对美联储主席鲍威尔上周二的讲话做出了积极的回应,但12月份美国CPI同比上涨7.0%创出40年历史新高。为应对美国国内持续的高通胀,美联储可能加速其紧缩政策。被提名为美联储副主席的Lael Brainard上周表示将采用强有力的政策工具抑制通胀攀升,表明美联储内部在抑制物价方面立场逐渐强硬。<b>往前看,即将召开的1月份FOMC会议(1月27日凌晨)尤为关键,值得投资者密切关注。</b></p><p>往前看,我们认为在外部和监管不确定性环境下香港市场已经承受了相当的悲观情绪。我们重申在2022年展望报告《均值回归》中所提出的观点:<b>考虑到有利的政策环境和较低的估值水平,2022年港股市场可能是均值回归的一年。</b>当然,市场出现明显转机可能还需要盈利回升和监管政策明确等利好因素的支撑,但是市场逐步在向积极的方向发展。例如,美国工商界人士赴华“快捷通道”已经启动,南向资金和海外资金持续流入港股市场。短期来看,我们认为春节前市场成交持续清淡,目前脆弱的情绪修复可能还需要一定时间,但随着短期不确定性逐步消退和稳增长政策在今年年初进一步推动经济增长,我们认为海外中资股市场有望逐步反弹,进而吸引更多资金流入。</p><p>具体来看,支撑我们观点的主要逻辑和上周需要关注的因素主要包括:</p><p><b>1) 宏观数据:受食品价格影响12月CPI涨幅放缓,PPI环比转负。</b>具体来看,12月份中国官方CPI同比涨幅降至1.5%,与11月份2.3%的涨幅相比出现放缓。CPI放缓表明需求持续低迷,尤其是在近期多个城市爆发本地疫情的背景下。12月份PPI同比涨幅也从11月份的12.9%进一步放缓至10.3%。PPI月度环比出现18个月以来首次下滑。往前看,未来几个月国内疫情复发可能继续抑制需求,不排除对物价带来下行压力。</p><p>图表:12月份中国PPI与CPI同比涨幅出现放缓</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4db795533183830c441cfab7a085507a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>资料来源:万得资讯,中金公司研究部</p><p><b>12月份信贷数据低于预期。</b>具体来看,12月份新增社融达到2.37万亿元,同比多增6500亿元,但仍然低于2.43万亿元的市场一致预期。12月份社融同比增速10.3%,与11月份的10.1%相比出现小幅加快。与此同时,12月份政府债净融资1.17万亿元,同比增加4600亿元,但低于11月份的1.3万亿元。贷款需求仍然较为低迷,12月份新增信贷1.1万亿元,明显低于1.2万亿元的市场一致预期。另外,12月份广义M2同比增速从11月份的8.5%攀升至9.0%。整体来看,持续低迷的信贷需求意味着需要更多稳增长政策出台的支持。</p><p>图表:12月份信贷需求持续低迷</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4062c686091338752115e9dc78cc77a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>资料来源:万得资讯,中金公司研究部</p><p><b>虽然2021年全年中国贸易整体表现强劲,但12月份进出口增速边际放缓。</b>具体来看,12月份中国出口同比增长20.9%,与11月份22%的增速相比出现放缓,但好于20%的市场一致预期。12月份中国进口同比增长19.5%,与11月份31.7%的增速相比也出现放缓。由于全球疫情仍然较为严重而且外部环境不确定性上升,12月份进口同比增速明显低于27.8%的市场预期。虽然12月份贸易数据表明整体经济出现放缓迹象,但2021年全年中国贸易仍然表现强劲,出口与2020年相比增长29.9%,进口增速达到30.1%</p><p><b>2) 中国公布《“十四五”数字经济发展规划》。</b>上周三,国务院发布数字经济领域第一个国家层面发展规划--《“十四五”数字经济发展规划》(简称《规划》),希望2025年前提升中国在数字经济领域中的全球竞争力。《规划》提出到2025年中国将数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP的比重从2020年的7.8%提升至10%以上。《规划》指出,数字经济发展速度之快、辐射范围之广、影响程度之深前所未有,正推动生产方式、生活方式和治理方式深刻变革,成为重组全球要素资源、重塑全球经济结构、改变全球竞争格局的关键力量,中国将抓住机会更好地促进公平与效率的统一,从而推动高质量发展。与此同时,《求是》发表习近平总书记文章《不断做强做优做大我国数字经济》,文章指出,发展数字经济意义重大,是把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革新机遇的战略选择。</p><p><b>3) 美联储官员表示将采取行动抑制通胀。</b>费城联邦储备银行行长Patrick Harker上周四在接受《金融时报》采访时表示他预计美联储今年开年会加息三到四次。与此同时,美联储理事Lael Brainard上周四表示,美联储在预计三月份结束资产购买后即可能开始加息。此前一周公布的2021年12月FOMC会议纪要也显示美联储官员对美国通胀局势愈发担忧。12月份美国CPI同比大幅增长7%,创出1982年以来的新高。</p><p><b>4) 流动性:海外资金和南向资金流入势头持续强劲。</b>上周五个交易日中南向资金均持续流入港股市场,在开年后的第二周共计153亿港元的南向资金流入港股市场,与此前一周的60亿港元相比流入步伐有所加快。与此同时,上周海外中资股市场资金也同样加速流入,流入规模21亿美元(此前一周流入12亿美元)。其中,海外被动型和主动型基金上周双双流入海外中资股市场。</p><p>图表:上周南向资金和海外资金流入步伐加快</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc83e6e8008ddd308eafa04d1629041c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"664\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>资料来源:万得资讯,EPFR, 中金公司研究部</p><p>图表:进入2022年海外中资股市场资金流入势头依然强劲</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9edc37610c45928a4a43b105ef5eff67\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>资料来源:万得资讯,EPFR, 中金公司研究部</p><p><b>投资建议:</b>如上所述,<b>我们认为当前较低的估值水平和宽松的流动性会为H股市场带来更多机会</b>。板块方面,我们建议短期关注“稳增长”受益板块,如部分金融、地产板块与相关产业链以及受益于上游价格回落和政策支持力度加大的中下游消费板块。与此同时,优质成长标的在中期也值得投资者关注。从现金流角度,我们建议选择估值相对合理的“经营性现金流”(成长股)和部分类固收的固定现金流(高股息)行业配置方向,如互联网、汽车、媒体娱乐、通讯设备、部分金融、公用事业和部分地产等板块。综合来看,我们建议超配传媒与互联网、汽车、部分电商、消费者服务、食品饮料与餐饮、生物科技和中资银行;低配上游煤炭、原材料和部分交通运输等。长期而言,我们仍然建议关注产业升级、消费升级以及国货消费品牌崛起等主题性机会。</p><p><b>重点关注事件:</b>1)中国经济增长与政策变化;2)美国上市中概股方面监管政策变化;3)疫情变化;4)中美关系。</p></body></html>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金:港股转机渐现,2022年可能是均值回归的一年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-17 11:16 北京时间 <a href=http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202201162249293458_0.html><strong>中金策略</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要近期H股明显跑赢其他市场的强劲表现印证了我们此前认为港股具有比较优势的判断。实际上,H股的这一估值比较优势也在通过港股通进一步吸引更多南向资金的流入。上周南向资金日均流入规模达到31亿港元,不仅延续了去年12月以来的强劲流入势头,更是超过此前一周日均流入总量15亿港元的两倍。近期我们不止一次指出,目前香港市场所面临的环境与2016年初和2019年初在各方面都有诸多类似之处,例如南向资金在政策...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202201162249293458_0.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK1128":"电影和娱乐","01981":"华夏控股",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","HSI":"恒生指数","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202201162249293458_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2203274016","content_text":"摘要近期H股明显跑赢其他市场的强劲表现印证了我们此前认为港股具有比较优势的判断。实际上,H股的这一估值比较优势也在通过港股通进一步吸引更多南向资金的流入。上周南向资金日均流入规模达到31亿港元,不仅延续了去年12月以来的强劲流入势头,更是超过此前一周日均流入总量15亿港元的两倍。近期我们不止一次指出,目前香港市场所面临的环境与2016年初和2019年初在各方面都有诸多类似之处,例如南向资金在政策转向宽松和市场估值处于低位的背景下开始流入,我们认为这一趋势在现阶段有望延续。上周市场情绪略有所修复。国内方面,12月PPI与CPI同比涨幅回落。这其中,得益于国内保供稳价政策效果逐渐显现,12月PPI环比在18个月以来首次转负。向前看,物价压力缓解可能为国内稳增长政策腾挪出更多实施空间。上周公布的12月份贸易数据也持续表现稳健。美国方面,鲍威尔参议院提名确认听证会上发言也没有如部分投资者所担心的那样明显转鹰。周三亚洲市场普遍走高,特别是港股科技股,也表明了市场情绪的部分回暖。然而不确定性和变数犹存。12月金融信贷数据不及预期,近期多个省份和直辖市疫情反复可能也会为消费和服务回暖平添阻力。需求相对疲弱叠加近期部分地区疫情反复持续拖累消费,都表明稳增长政策发力的必要性和紧迫性。海外方面,美联储多名官员表示将采取行动抑制通胀,即将召开的1月份FOMC会议尤为关键。往前看,我们认为在外部和监管不确定性环境下香港市场已经承受了相当的悲观情绪。我们重申在2022年展望报告《均值回归》中所提出的观点:考虑到有利的政策环境和较低的估值水平,2022年港股市场可能是均值回归的一年。市场回顾:尽管上周A股和海外市场表现不尽如人意,但海外中资股市场却表现强劲。整体来看,恒生科技指数涨幅最高,达到4.82%,其次为恒生国企指数,上涨3.93%,恒生指数和MSCI中国指数则分别上涨3.79%和2.75%。板块方面,医疗保健、传媒娱乐和交通运输板块领涨,涨幅分别为6.31%、5.71%和5.71%,而多元化金融和日常消费板块表现落后,分别下跌2.08%和1.44%。图表:MSCI中国指数上周上涨2.7%,医疗保健和传媒娱乐板块领涨资料来源:FactSet,中金公司研究部图表:海外中资股市场上周大幅走高资料来源:Bloomberg,中金公司研究部市场展望:上周海外中资股市场大涨,而且跑赢A股和美股市场。尽管内外部的不确定性和市场波动性持续存在,但H股明显跑赢其他市场的强劲表现印证了我们此前认为港股具有比较优势的判断。实际上,H股的这一估值比较优势也在通过港股通进一步吸引更多南向资金的流入。上周,南向资金日均流入规模达到31亿港元,不仅延续了去年12月以来的强劲流入势头,更是超过此前一周日均流入总量15亿港元的两倍。近期我们不止一次指出,目前香港市场所面临的环境与2016年初和2019年初在各方面都有诸多类似之处(例如市场经历大幅回调、估值处于历史低位、投资者情绪低迷且观望情绪浓重、一段时间内缺乏资金流入、但政策进入放松期等等),而南向资金此时开始流入也与当时相似。虽然开年以来稳增长政策方面缺乏更多进展令一部分投资者感到失望,但我们认为已经较为宽松的流动性环境、叠加明显的估值优势足以在现阶段吸引更多内资资金流入,并进而推动H股市场出现估值修复。对比自身市盈率所处的历史分位数来看,恒生指数目前与沪深300指数相比存在18%的折价。此外,上周市场情绪也部分有所修复。国内方面,12月PPI与CPI同比涨幅回落。这其中,得益于国内保供稳价政策效果逐渐显现,12月PPI环比在18个月以来首次转负(-1.2%)。同时12月份CPI涨幅1.5%,放缓程度也超出预期。向前看,物价压力缓解可能为国内稳增长政策腾挪出更多实施空间。上周公布的12月份贸易数据也持续表现稳健。强劲的出口推动12月中国贸易顺差攀升至历史新高945亿美元,人民币对美元汇率上周再度突破6.35,不排除也是得益于此。美国方面,市场较为关注美联储主席鲍威尔上周二在参议院提名确认听证会上发言。虽然鲍威尔承认通胀大幅攀升已经是美国货币政策短期内的重点,但基调却没有如部分投资者所担心的那样明显转鹰。总体而言,鲍威尔的发言向市场传递美联储政策立场可能不会出现明显转向的信号。鲍威尔发言后,周三亚洲市场普遍走高,特别是港股科技股,也表明了市场情绪的部分回暖。然而,部分不确定性和变数犹存。12月份金融信贷数据不及预期,表明贷款需求依然较为低迷。具体来看,新增中长期人民币贷款同比下降超过3000亿元;在地产行业信心趋弱背景下,抵押贷款增速也出现放缓。此外,12月新增社融增速也低于预期。好的一面是,政府债券发行规模攀升,表明财政刺激正在逐渐发力。此外,近期多个省份和直辖市疫情反复可能也会为消费和服务回暖平添阻力。因此,需求相对疲弱叠加近期部分地区疫情反复持续拖累消费,都表明稳增长政策发力的必要性和紧迫性。海外方面,市场对美联储主席鲍威尔上周二的讲话做出了积极的回应,但12月份美国CPI同比上涨7.0%创出40年历史新高。为应对美国国内持续的高通胀,美联储可能加速其紧缩政策。被提名为美联储副主席的Lael Brainard上周表示将采用强有力的政策工具抑制通胀攀升,表明美联储内部在抑制物价方面立场逐渐强硬。往前看,即将召开的1月份FOMC会议(1月27日凌晨)尤为关键,值得投资者密切关注。往前看,我们认为在外部和监管不确定性环境下香港市场已经承受了相当的悲观情绪。我们重申在2022年展望报告《均值回归》中所提出的观点:考虑到有利的政策环境和较低的估值水平,2022年港股市场可能是均值回归的一年。当然,市场出现明显转机可能还需要盈利回升和监管政策明确等利好因素的支撑,但是市场逐步在向积极的方向发展。例如,美国工商界人士赴华“快捷通道”已经启动,南向资金和海外资金持续流入港股市场。短期来看,我们认为春节前市场成交持续清淡,目前脆弱的情绪修复可能还需要一定时间,但随着短期不确定性逐步消退和稳增长政策在今年年初进一步推动经济增长,我们认为海外中资股市场有望逐步反弹,进而吸引更多资金流入。具体来看,支撑我们观点的主要逻辑和上周需要关注的因素主要包括:1) 宏观数据:受食品价格影响12月CPI涨幅放缓,PPI环比转负。具体来看,12月份中国官方CPI同比涨幅降至1.5%,与11月份2.3%的涨幅相比出现放缓。CPI放缓表明需求持续低迷,尤其是在近期多个城市爆发本地疫情的背景下。12月份PPI同比涨幅也从11月份的12.9%进一步放缓至10.3%。PPI月度环比出现18个月以来首次下滑。往前看,未来几个月国内疫情复发可能继续抑制需求,不排除对物价带来下行压力。图表:12月份中国PPI与CPI同比涨幅出现放缓资料来源:万得资讯,中金公司研究部12月份信贷数据低于预期。具体来看,12月份新增社融达到2.37万亿元,同比多增6500亿元,但仍然低于2.43万亿元的市场一致预期。12月份社融同比增速10.3%,与11月份的10.1%相比出现小幅加快。与此同时,12月份政府债净融资1.17万亿元,同比增加4600亿元,但低于11月份的1.3万亿元。贷款需求仍然较为低迷,12月份新增信贷1.1万亿元,明显低于1.2万亿元的市场一致预期。另外,12月份广义M2同比增速从11月份的8.5%攀升至9.0%。整体来看,持续低迷的信贷需求意味着需要更多稳增长政策出台的支持。图表:12月份信贷需求持续低迷资料来源:万得资讯,中金公司研究部虽然2021年全年中国贸易整体表现强劲,但12月份进出口增速边际放缓。具体来看,12月份中国出口同比增长20.9%,与11月份22%的增速相比出现放缓,但好于20%的市场一致预期。12月份中国进口同比增长19.5%,与11月份31.7%的增速相比也出现放缓。由于全球疫情仍然较为严重而且外部环境不确定性上升,12月份进口同比增速明显低于27.8%的市场预期。虽然12月份贸易数据表明整体经济出现放缓迹象,但2021年全年中国贸易仍然表现强劲,出口与2020年相比增长29.9%,进口增速达到30.1%2) 中国公布《“十四五”数字经济发展规划》。上周三,国务院发布数字经济领域第一个国家层面发展规划--《“十四五”数字经济发展规划》(简称《规划》),希望2025年前提升中国在数字经济领域中的全球竞争力。《规划》提出到2025年中国将数字经济核心产业增加值占GDP的比重从2020年的7.8%提升至10%以上。《规划》指出,数字经济发展速度之快、辐射范围之广、影响程度之深前所未有,正推动生产方式、生活方式和治理方式深刻变革,成为重组全球要素资源、重塑全球经济结构、改变全球竞争格局的关键力量,中国将抓住机会更好地促进公平与效率的统一,从而推动高质量发展。与此同时,《求是》发表习近平总书记文章《不断做强做优做大我国数字经济》,文章指出,发展数字经济意义重大,是把握新一轮科技革命和产业变革新机遇的战略选择。3) 美联储官员表示将采取行动抑制通胀。费城联邦储备银行行长Patrick Harker上周四在接受《金融时报》采访时表示他预计美联储今年开年会加息三到四次。与此同时,美联储理事Lael Brainard上周四表示,美联储在预计三月份结束资产购买后即可能开始加息。此前一周公布的2021年12月FOMC会议纪要也显示美联储官员对美国通胀局势愈发担忧。12月份美国CPI同比大幅增长7%,创出1982年以来的新高。4) 流动性:海外资金和南向资金流入势头持续强劲。上周五个交易日中南向资金均持续流入港股市场,在开年后的第二周共计153亿港元的南向资金流入港股市场,与此前一周的60亿港元相比流入步伐有所加快。与此同时,上周海外中资股市场资金也同样加速流入,流入规模21亿美元(此前一周流入12亿美元)。其中,海外被动型和主动型基金上周双双流入海外中资股市场。图表:上周南向资金和海外资金流入步伐加快资料来源:万得资讯,EPFR, 中金公司研究部图表:进入2022年海外中资股市场资金流入势头依然强劲资料来源:万得资讯,EPFR, 中金公司研究部投资建议:如上所述,我们认为当前较低的估值水平和宽松的流动性会为H股市场带来更多机会。板块方面,我们建议短期关注“稳增长”受益板块,如部分金融、地产板块与相关产业链以及受益于上游价格回落和政策支持力度加大的中下游消费板块。与此同时,优质成长标的在中期也值得投资者关注。从现金流角度,我们建议选择估值相对合理的“经营性现金流”(成长股)和部分类固收的固定现金流(高股息)行业配置方向,如互联网、汽车、媒体娱乐、通讯设备、部分金融、公用事业和部分地产等板块。综合来看,我们建议超配传媒与互联网、汽车、部分电商、消费者服务、食品饮料与餐饮、生物科技和中资银行;低配上游煤炭、原材料和部分交通运输等。长期而言,我们仍然建议关注产业升级、消费升级以及国货消费品牌崛起等主题性机会。重点关注事件:1)中国经济增长与政策变化;2)美国上市中概股方面监管政策变化;3)疫情变化;4)中美关系。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697232975,"gmtCreate":1642483049532,"gmtModify":1642483049532,"author":{"id":"3572227539531130","authorId":"3572227539531130","name":"dm007","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3def946b322ec90acd3669c107e57f4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572227539531130","authorIdStr":"3572227539531130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>你今天吃*了?","listText":"<a 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21:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>4月19日盘初,特斯拉跌超4%,在今天举行的上海车展期间,特斯拉展台出现疑似维权车主,身着白色T恤,上面写着:刹车失灵,引来大批人群围观拍照。关于该事件的视频和图片也迅速在网络上传播。</p>\n<p>新华社今日发文《“车顶维权”成热点,是谁让谁不“体面”?》。文章表示,作为汽车行业的“明星”品牌,特斯拉对质量的自我要求、对用户的承诺需要与市场期待相匹配,这才能获得更多消费者的信任和青睐。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d704e516a3c3eda8e3b1dc14b8c22b80\" tg-width=\"840\" 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