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2023-07-31

熬出头了

快手：预计上半年净利润实现扭亏为盈

2023-03-22

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@美股解毒师:腾讯Q4前瞻：是时候该买点回来了？

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19:59</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月31日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>港交所公告，本公司董事会谨此知会本公司股东及有意投资者，基于董事会目前可得的财务资料，截至2023年6月30日止六个月，预期录得本集团净利润不低于人民币5.6亿元，较2022年同期本集团录得的净亏损约人民币94.3亿元，实现扭亏为盈。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a73e1187801e85c2b634d7bf9e5f6da\" tg-width=\"746\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 即将公布22Q4财报，此前市场预期马化腾所说的“降本增效”，会更大程度上地体现在22年下半年的财报上，Q4显然是一个重要节点。目前市场预期的Q4业绩营收1445亿元，同比基本持平；游戏收入418亿元，同比下降2.3%；社交网络（直播、视频等）292亿元，同比持平；在线广告221亿元，同比增长2.6%；金融和企业收入502亿元，同比增长4.8%；EBITDA 426.8亿元，同比增长16.7%调整后净利润308亿元，同比增长24%。基本上也能从市场一致预期中看出来对降本增效的预期。不过值得注意的是，过去5个季度腾讯的营收不及预期，最近两个季度的调整后净利润超过市场预期，换句话说，降本增效的实际效果可能还会超过市场预期。而现在市场上对腾讯业绩预期较高的，认为Q4的营收增长可能到2%Q4是疫情最后一个季度，线下活动受到一定的影响，支付端、企业端也有可能受到影响，不过相应地，可能利好线上娱乐。而游戏、社交娱乐在腾讯营收中的占比更高一些，因此投资者也可以适当考量这个因素，对腾讯业绩预期微微调高一些。我们认为，游戏方面，2022年前三个季度的表现来看，腾讯游戏表现出的韧性要略好于整体游戏大盘，其中海外游戏中的《Valorant》、《Apex 英雄》以及代理发行的《幻塔》更有不俗表现。而2023整个游戏行业呈现出温和复苏之势，更多的版号发放，包括腾讯这样的大厂。虽然这些未必能在2023年前两个季度就能展现，有望在2023年下半年迎来业绩拐点。内容方面，腾讯视频在Q4仍然可能受到广告低迷的影响，但是进入2023以后，随着《三体》等多部重要作品的上线，市场反馈较为乐观，也为后续的订阅及广告增长埋下伏笔。此外，视频号将成为生态内容的关键。2022年6月微信视频号月活规模突破8","listText":"3月22日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 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