小福哥儿的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小福哥儿

小福哥儿

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IP属地：北京

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1主题

0勋章

07-15

你不懂资本就不要乱说。

萝卜快跑和百度的“悖论”

06-18

$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 爱奇艺**

05-29

$爱奇艺(IQ)$ **股票

05-29

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 增股增了10倍，然后再合股，**

05-29

$京东(JD)$ 刘强东。现在是黔驴技穷。重资产太多。模式无法变更。人员太多。光薪酬就难受的要死。

05-25

$京东(JD)$ 狗东真是废了

05-15

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 换股东啦？

04-06

可能阿里已经走向衰败，怎么救也无济于事

04-02

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 老贾为什么还不放弃？

03-21

AI时代，这机会还不算好？

张勇加入晨壹基金，并购之路继续逍遥

03-19

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 阿里已经沦为垃圾股了

03-06

$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 这是个啥垃圾股

03-01

$达达集团(DADA)$ 达达可以埋伏了吗？

02-26

合完继续增发

法拉第未来计划以1比3反向拆分普通股

02-22

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 距离合股还剩一天

01-30

$京东(JD)$ 狗东废了，东子没有新招了

01-26

$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 视频网站在中国的创新能力太差

01-24

港股要么全红，要么全绿。完全是不健康的一种状态。

01-19

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ 裤衩子都干没了

01-18

$京东(JD)$ 刘强东夕阳喽

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tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p>提及萝卜快跑，我们就不得不提及AI，就不得不提及百度。</p><p>可以说，萝卜快跑是百度AI在真实商业场景当中落地的一个与人们的日常需求最密切相关的代表。</p><p>如果我们将滴滴的出现看成是改变了人们的出行方式的话，那么，萝卜快跑则是从更前端对人们的出行方式进行了一次更加彻底而深入的改造。</p><p>真正导致萝卜快跑可以对人们的出行方式进行一次更加彻底而深入的改变的，正是源自于百度在AI上的探索、布局和实践。</p><p>我们都知道，百度早已在AI上进行了很多的布局。</p><p>无论是百度早在AI并不被看好的时候，全面all in AI，抑或是百度率先推出“文心一言”的AI应用，乃至是现在百度将AI技术应用到出行的商业场景当中，无疑不再为我们展示着百度近些年以来在AI上的前瞻性布局以及商业落地上的探索与尝试。</p><p>然而，在百度全面拥抱AI的过程当中，我们同样看到了敢为天下先背后所遭遇到的非议。无论是李彦宏在演讲过程当中被泼水，还是李彦宏乘坐无人驾驶汽车上路被相关部门问询，乃至是李彦宏的“大模型闭源论”所导致的一系列的质疑，我们都可以看出，外界对于百度全面拥抱AI的路上始终都抱有一种审视的态度。</p><p>尽管百度在探索AI的道路上遭遇到了很多的非议和质疑，但是，我们却依然看到了李彦宏以及其所带领下的百度始终都坚定地走在了AI的道路上。</p><p>可以说，现在的百度，已经成为了人们在谈论AI的时候，始终都无法绕过的一个话题。</p><p>对于在移动互联网时代籍籍无名的百度来讲，能够借助AI打一个翻身仗，不得不说是一种胜利。</p><p>同以往百度在探索AI的道路上所遭遇到的质疑一样，当萝卜快跑开始落地，特别是开始真正给人们提供新的出行服务，它遭遇到了来自传统出行方式的提供者的抵制。</p><p>如果对萝卜快跑所遭遇到的质疑放置于百度大的AI发展时间线条里的话，它只不过是诸多“浪花”之中的一朵。</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p>人们对于萝卜快跑的质疑，更多地停留在百度的AI技术上。</p><p>我们在网上也看到了很多有关萝卜快跑调头，转弯以及让行上略显机械且笨拙的一面，但是，我们恰恰忽略的是，真正让人们对于萝卜快跑产生质疑关键点在于，它的AI应用所导致的打车费用的降低以及由此所带来的网约车出租车司机们的收益缩减上。</p><p>可以肯定的是，如果萝卜快跑逐渐铺开，特别是它带来的用工成本的减少，我们还将会看到更多类似抵制萝卜快跑的现象的出现。</p><p>这其实是任何一个新鲜事物出现之后，必然会经历的阶段。</p><p>对于任何一个新鲜事物来讲，它的出现必然会出现重新分割蛋糕的现象。</p><p>这样一种现象，我们在以往的互联网时代已经看到过太多太多。</p><p>对于萝卜快跑和百度来讲，它们真正需要去做的，并不仅仅只是一味地用AI技术去改造传统的出行供给的问题，而是需要找到一个技术与社会伦理的平衡点。</p><p>不可否认，百度借助AI技术推出萝卜快跑，的确可以在很大程度上减少乘客的出行成本，的确可以解决交通出行过程当中的诸多问题。</p><p>然而，萝卜快跑的推出，最为直接的一个结果，便是让网约车出租车司机面临着巨大的挑战。</p><p>这个时候，萝卜快跑需要做的，并不仅仅只是一味地去大规模落地的问题，而是更多地需要找到萝卜快跑与司机们之间的平衡点。</p><p><strong>当萝卜快跑扎到了这样一个平衡点，那么，AI技术就不再仅仅只是一个挤兑司机们的存在，而是变成了一个可以和司机相辅相成的存在。</strong></p><p>这就好比在互联网时代，我们出现了各式各样的移动互联网的工具，但是，真正去操控和使用这些工具的，却是一个又一个的人的问题。</p><p>因此，如果从这样一个问题来看，萝卜快跑的“悖论”，并不仅仅只是新的出行方式和旧的出行方式的选择的问题，而是技术的应用与社会伦理之间的平衡的问题。</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p>事实上，当AI行业的发展进入到深水区，特别是当AI的发展从实验室开始越来越多的现实是商业场景和生活场景之中，越来越多的问题和矛盾，开始被暴露出现。</p><p>无论是有关大模型的开源和闭源之争，还是自动驾驶的安全性与便利性之争，乃至是AI是主角还是配角之争，我们都可以看出，越来越多的问题和矛盾，开始在AI行业当中开始出现。</p><p>当这些矛盾和问题开始出现，我们需要更多地看到的是，<strong>AI的发展开始进行到一个全新的阶段。</strong></p><p>在这样一个阶段，真正主导行业发展的，不再仅仅只是资本，不再仅仅只是布局，不再仅仅只是技术，而是更多地寻求一种由AI所主导的新商业与业已形成的旧商业之间的平衡点的问题。</p><p>对于每一个AI的玩家们来讲，如果谁能够找到了这样一个平衡点，并且可以将这样一个平衡点可以在商业上得到复现，那么，谁就是这样一场全新战局的胜者。</p><p>对于百度来讲，它正在遭遇到的挑战，正在于此。</p><p>在我看来，这是直接关系到百度能够彻底确立自身在AI时代市场地位的关键之战，这是直接关系到它是否能够保留其在AI布局上的先发优势的关键之战。</p><p>试想一下，如果百度能够找到了AI技术与社会伦理的平衡点，特别是厘清了AI技术与人类社会之间的微妙关系，那么，它以往在AI上的布局，将不再仅仅只是一种布局，而是变成了一个真正可以在现实的商业上进行落地和复现的全新的存在。</p><p>借助这一点，百度无疑可以重拾以往的荣耀，它非但会成为AI时代的新巨头，同样将会成为全球范围内真正可以和头部科技玩家们齐头并进的存在。</p><p>或许正是因为如此，我们看到的是，当萝卜快跑因为受到司机们的抵制而登上热搜，而在资本市场上百度股价却一路走高，这样一种现实市场和资本市场完全不一样的景象的出现。</p><p>萝卜快跑的“悖论”，是百度在探索AI的道路上必然会经历的，特别是当百度开始将其多年以来在AI上沉淀不断地落地过程当中必然会经历的。</p><p>对于百度来讲，这是一次全新的大考。</p><p>如果百度能够解决这样一种“悖论”，特别是找到了AI出行与人工出行之间的“平衡点”，那么，萝卜快跑所遭遇到的非议，或许将会迎刃而解。</p><p>至此，百度在AI的道路上所遭遇到的新的障碍，同样将会被清除，百度在AI市场上的地位将再度被确立。</p><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p><strong>萝卜快跑，正在陷入到一场全新的“悖论”之中。</strong></p><p>这场“悖论”，其实是百度在执着于AI的道路上必然会经历的，它同样是AI的发展业已进入到深水区的一个较为直接的证明。</p><p>对于百度来讲，萝卜快跑的“悖论”，或许还会在更多的场景，更多的应用上出现。</p><p><strong>这其实是AI技术以及其导致的生产力与生产关系的重塑必然会产生的问题。</strong></p><p>如果百度能够找到的这样一个问题的答案，特别它能够真正建立一套AI机制之下的全新的治理体系，那么，百度或许将会借助AI重拾以往的荣耀。</p><p>不得不说，萝卜快跑让我们看到了百度在AI上的领先，但是，这样一种领先究竟可以持续多久，或许要看李彦宏以及他带领下的百度，究竟会做出多少的创新了。</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n萝卜快跑和百度的“悖论”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-15 12:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8bEVNX7m6KU><strong>孟栖笔谈</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“做无人车的初衷，不是为了抢出租车网约车司机的生意，而是为了更好的服务老百姓，提供一种新的出行方式。”百度副总裁王云鹏曾经如是说。然而，当萝卜快跑在武汉落地，特别是抢了司机们的饭碗时，这样一种美好的想象，似乎正在经历一次相当严峻的考验。此刻，萝卜快跑似乎正在陷入到一场“悖论”之中，究竟是老百姓新的出行方式重要，还是出租车网约车司机们的生计重要？如果这个问题无法得到一个完美的解释，那么，王云鹏口中的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8bEVNX7m6KU\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ca0c6f8e135b4fbc1c690b0a7636a28","relate_stocks":{"89888":"百度集团-SWR","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU2778985437.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0630378692.HKD":"HSBC GIF ASIA PACIFIC EX JAPAN EQ HD \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0762540952.USD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED SOLUTIONS ASIA 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8bEVNX7m6KU","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2451016665","content_text":"“做无人车的初衷，不是为了抢出租车网约车司机的生意，而是为了更好的服务老百姓，提供一种新的出行方式。”百度副总裁王云鹏曾经如是说。然而，当萝卜快跑在武汉落地，特别是抢了司机们的饭碗时，这样一种美好的想象，似乎正在经历一次相当严峻的考验。此刻，萝卜快跑似乎正在陷入到一场“悖论”之中，究竟是老百姓新的出行方式重要，还是出租车网约车司机们的生计重要？如果这个问题无法得到一个完美的解释，那么，王云鹏口中的“美好”，或许永远都找不到一个美好的注脚。事实上，萝卜快跑的根本问题，并不在于萝卜快跑本身，它更多地为我们折射出来的是一种新技术的横空出世对于原有的生产力和生产关系的打破的残酷现实。萝卜快跑遭遇到的困境，如同以往的蒸汽机，计算机一样，尽管道路略显曲折，但是前途依然是光明的。几乎可以肯定的是，当人们使用AI像人们以往使用蒸汽机、计算机一样稀松平常的时候，那么，当下萝卜快跑所遭遇到的“悖论”，或许仅仅只是一个笑话而已。01提及萝卜快跑，我们就不得不提及AI，就不得不提及百度。可以说，萝卜快跑是百度AI在真实商业场景当中落地的一个与人们的日常需求最密切相关的代表。如果我们将滴滴的出现看成是改变了人们的出行方式的话，那么，萝卜快跑则是从更前端对人们的出行方式进行了一次更加彻底而深入的改造。真正导致萝卜快跑可以对人们的出行方式进行一次更加彻底而深入的改变的，正是源自于百度在AI上的探索、布局和实践。我们都知道，百度早已在AI上进行了很多的布局。无论是百度早在AI并不被看好的时候，全面all in AI，抑或是百度率先推出“文心一言”的AI应用，乃至是现在百度将AI技术应用到出行的商业场景当中，无疑不再为我们展示着百度近些年以来在AI上的前瞻性布局以及商业落地上的探索与尝试。然而，在百度全面拥抱AI的过程当中，我们同样看到了敢为天下先背后所遭遇到的非议。无论是李彦宏在演讲过程当中被泼水，还是李彦宏乘坐无人驾驶汽车上路被相关部门问询，乃至是李彦宏的“大模型闭源论”所导致的一系列的质疑，我们都可以看出，外界对于百度全面拥抱AI的路上始终都抱有一种审视的态度。尽管百度在探索AI的道路上遭遇到了很多的非议和质疑，但是，我们却依然看到了李彦宏以及其所带领下的百度始终都坚定地走在了AI的道路上。可以说，现在的百度，已经成为了人们在谈论AI的时候，始终都无法绕过的一个话题。对于在移动互联网时代籍籍无名的百度来讲，能够借助AI打一个翻身仗，不得不说是一种胜利。同以往百度在探索AI的道路上所遭遇到的质疑一样，当萝卜快跑开始落地，特别是开始真正给人们提供新的出行服务，它遭遇到了来自传统出行方式的提供者的抵制。如果对萝卜快跑所遭遇到的质疑放置于百度大的AI发展时间线条里的话，它只不过是诸多“浪花”之中的一朵。02人们对于萝卜快跑的质疑，更多地停留在百度的AI技术上。我们在网上也看到了很多有关萝卜快跑调头，转弯以及让行上略显机械且笨拙的一面，但是，我们恰恰忽略的是，真正让人们对于萝卜快跑产生质疑关键点在于，它的AI应用所导致的打车费用的降低以及由此所带来的网约车出租车司机们的收益缩减上。可以肯定的是，如果萝卜快跑逐渐铺开，特别是它带来的用工成本的减少，我们还将会看到更多类似抵制萝卜快跑的现象的出现。这其实是任何一个新鲜事物出现之后，必然会经历的阶段。对于任何一个新鲜事物来讲，它的出现必然会出现重新分割蛋糕的现象。这样一种现象，我们在以往的互联网时代已经看到过太多太多。对于萝卜快跑和百度来讲，它们真正需要去做的，并不仅仅只是一味地用AI技术去改造传统的出行供给的问题，而是需要找到一个技术与社会伦理的平衡点。不可否认，百度借助AI技术推出萝卜快跑，的确可以在很大程度上减少乘客的出行成本，的确可以解决交通出行过程当中的诸多问题。然而，萝卜快跑的推出，最为直接的一个结果，便是让网约车出租车司机面临着巨大的挑战。这个时候，萝卜快跑需要做的，并不仅仅只是一味地去大规模落地的问题，而是更多地需要找到萝卜快跑与司机们之间的平衡点。当萝卜快跑扎到了这样一个平衡点，那么，AI技术就不再仅仅只是一个挤兑司机们的存在，而是变成了一个可以和司机相辅相成的存在。这就好比在互联网时代，我们出现了各式各样的移动互联网的工具，但是，真正去操控和使用这些工具的，却是一个又一个的人的问题。因此，如果从这样一个问题来看，萝卜快跑的“悖论”，并不仅仅只是新的出行方式和旧的出行方式的选择的问题，而是技术的应用与社会伦理之间的平衡的问题。03事实上，当AI行业的发展进入到深水区，特别是当AI的发展从实验室开始越来越多的现实是商业场景和生活场景之中，越来越多的问题和矛盾，开始被暴露出现。无论是有关大模型的开源和闭源之争，还是自动驾驶的安全性与便利性之争，乃至是AI是主角还是配角之争，我们都可以看出，越来越多的问题和矛盾，开始在AI行业当中开始出现。当这些矛盾和问题开始出现，我们需要更多地看到的是，AI的发展开始进行到一个全新的阶段。在这样一个阶段，真正主导行业发展的，不再仅仅只是资本，不再仅仅只是布局，不再仅仅只是技术，而是更多地寻求一种由AI所主导的新商业与业已形成的旧商业之间的平衡点的问题。对于每一个AI的玩家们来讲，如果谁能够找到了这样一个平衡点，并且可以将这样一个平衡点可以在商业上得到复现，那么，谁就是这样一场全新战局的胜者。对于百度来讲，它正在遭遇到的挑战，正在于此。在我看来，这是直接关系到百度能够彻底确立自身在AI时代市场地位的关键之战，这是直接关系到它是否能够保留其在AI布局上的先发优势的关键之战。试想一下，如果百度能够找到了AI技术与社会伦理的平衡点，特别是厘清了AI技术与人类社会之间的微妙关系，那么，它以往在AI上的布局，将不再仅仅只是一种布局，而是变成了一个真正可以在现实的商业上进行落地和复现的全新的存在。借助这一点，百度无疑可以重拾以往的荣耀，它非但会成为AI时代的新巨头，同样将会成为全球范围内真正可以和头部科技玩家们齐头并进的存在。或许正是因为如此，我们看到的是，当萝卜快跑因为受到司机们的抵制而登上热搜，而在资本市场上百度股价却一路走高，这样一种现实市场和资本市场完全不一样的景象的出现。萝卜快跑的“悖论”，是百度在探索AI的道路上必然会经历的，特别是当百度开始将其多年以来在AI上沉淀不断地落地过程当中必然会经历的。对于百度来讲，这是一次全新的大考。如果百度能够解决这样一种“悖论”，特别是找到了AI出行与人工出行之间的“平衡点”，那么，萝卜快跑所遭遇到的非议，或许将会迎刃而解。至此，百度在AI的道路上所遭遇到的新的障碍，同样将会被清除，百度在AI市场上的地位将再度被确立。结语萝卜快跑，正在陷入到一场全新的“悖论”之中。这场“悖论”，其实是百度在执着于AI的道路上必然会经历的，它同样是AI的发展业已进入到深水区的一个较为直接的证明。对于百度来讲，萝卜快跑的“悖论”，或许还会在更多的场景，更多的应用上出现。这其实是AI技术以及其导致的生产力与生产关系的重塑必然会产生的问题。如果百度能够找到的这样一个问题的答案，特别它能够真正建立一套AI机制之下的全新的治理体系，那么，百度或许将会借助AI重拾以往的荣耀。不得不说，萝卜快跑让我们看到了百度在AI上的领先，但是，这样一种领先究竟可以持续多久，或许要看李彦宏以及他带领下的百度，究竟会做出多少的创新了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":18,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318190455857320,"gmtCreate":1718721758909,"gmtModify":1718721760236,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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老贾为什么还不放弃？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290979674456312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4105019856248890","authorId":"4105019856248890","name":"NO1宇宙股神降龙23掌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598047e2d3320117ca3306e057f8f603","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"放弃，各路大股东，还不把他，万岁了？","text":"放弃，各路大股东，还不把他，万岁了？","html":"放弃，各路大股东，还不把他，万岁了？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":286718860435656,"gmtCreate":1711019761064,"gmtModify":1711019762771,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AI时代，这机会还不算好？","listText":"AI时代，这机会还不算好？","text":"AI时代，这机会还不算好？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/286718860435656","repostId":"1156030321","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156030321","pubTimestamp":1710991743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156030321?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-21 11:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"张勇加入晨壹基金，并购之路继续逍遥","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156030321","media":"暗涌Waves","summary":"「暗涌Waves」独家获悉，原$阿里巴巴$集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇（逍遥子），将加盟晨壹基金，和创始人刘晓丹一起，共同担任管理合伙人。意料之外在于，去年9月，当张勇卸任阿里的一系列管理职务后，人们猜测他会创办一家新基金。晨壹基金已完成多笔投资并购案例，最具代表性的包括：2020年3月，入局$华兰疫苗$，并在之后成功收获基金第一个IPO。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>「暗涌Waves」独家获悉，原<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇（逍遥子），将加盟晨壹基金，和创始人刘晓丹一起，共同担任管理合伙人。</p><p>这是一个意料之外、但又情理之中的消息。</p><p>意料之外在于，去年9月，当张勇卸任阿里的一系列管理职务后，人们猜测他会创办一家新基金。但客观来说，投资是一个讲究年份的行业，如今对创立一个新机构来说，或许不能算是最好的时机。</p><p>情理之中则在于，从许多方面来看，这几乎是一个可以把张勇的职业履历和投资完美结合的路径。</p><p>不同于传统意义上的财务投资基金，自2019年成立之初，晨壹就鲜明旗帜地定义了自己：一家并购基金。</p><p>作为这家机构的创始人，刘晓丹最为人所知的，也来自于她在华泰联合展开的大刀阔斧的改革，短短几年就将一个籍籍无名的地方券商，打造为国内的并购领导者。中国内资投行“三中一华”中的“华”，就是指刘晓丹领导下的华泰。她“并购女王”的名号也在此时立下。</p><p>投资的本质都是低买高卖。但不同的是，财务投资赚的是估值的价差，而并购赚的是更复杂、也更辛苦的钱。这是因为并购的难点不仅在于交易，而更在于故事的后半段：如何令一家公司变得更好，或者说，实现价值增值。这更接近于创始人、经营者的视角，而非投资人的。</p><p>这大概也是张勇和刘晓丹的互补意义。</p><p>毕业于上海财经大学的张勇在1995年至2005年间，先后任职于安达信、普华永道两大会计师事务所，而后加入盛大集团任财务总监，其后一路做到CFO：其间他完善了公司的财务与投资体系，延展了盛大的资本想象力。</p><p>有盛大当时的高管曾告诉「暗涌Waves」，当年公司接连的投资行为中，作为财务负责人的张勇深入参与了决策、尽调等工作。</p><p>2007年8月，张勇在盛大出完当季财报后，正式到陈天桥口中“规模较小的私人公司”阿里巴巴报到，出任淘宝网CFO。2015年5月，张勇接任阿里巴巴集团CEO，并在四年后的2019年9月成为阿里巴巴集团董事会主席，带领这一超大型组织经历了环境的剧烈变化和一系列挑战。</p><p>这些经历或许也是张勇选择晨壹的原因。</p><p>并购在中国，道阻且长。在过去二十年的国内资本市场，这是一个时常被提及、但又总是差一分火候的概念。究其根本，并购往往是更成熟的资本市场、乃至商业体系的标志和产物。</p><p>按照刘晓丹曾经的概括，美国之所以成为一个成熟的并购市场，源于其产业竞争、资本市场、公司治理这三要素都同时出现了。但在2023年3月的一次分享中，她说，第一次感觉到这三要素在中国同时闪现，“并购市场系统性的机会出现了。”</p><p>刘晓丹曾说过的一句话：“管理一定是难的，这也是并购基金创造价值的根本”。她和张勇的组合，或许将有助于推动更多的企业以及投资者重新思考并购的价值，激发并购市场的活力。</p><p>晨壹基金已完成多笔投资并购案例，最具代表性的包括：2020年3月，入局<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301207\">华兰疫苗</a>，并在之后成功收获基金第一个IPO。同年5月，向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>半导体注资1亿元战略投资。11月，晨壹向动力电池赛道龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03931\">中创新航</a>投资3.44亿，成功收获又一IPO。2021年晨壹携手团队，通过快速并购整合成立瑞辰宠物医院，22年分别获得爱尔医疗和KKR的投资加持。还有今年年初的消息是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300760\">迈瑞医疗</a>收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688617\">惠泰医疗</a>控股权，完成了科创板首单“A控A”并购，晨壹发挥了独特作用，这被视为中国并购大年启动的风向标。</p><p>伴随着过去十年创投行业的狼奔豕突，如今确实有大量的存量资产存在并购和优化重组的机会。</p><p>据「暗涌Waves」了解，几乎所有二级投行、一级市场FA，都已经将并购（MA）业务作为了2024年业务重点。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">同花顺</a>iFinD数据也显示，截至3月18日，年内A股市场共披露430单并购重组，其中63单已完成，367单正在进行。</p><p>放眼如今的资本市场，张勇似乎做了一个能够最大化优势的绝妙选择。</p><p>值得一提的是，许多接近张勇和刘晓丹的人，对他们二人的评价中都有共同的一点：“是真的低调”。身处一个热闹的行业，相似的精神气质，或许才是合作默契的基石。</p><p>祝福他，投资人张勇。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1703506385826","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>张勇加入晨壹基金，并购之路继续逍遥</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n张勇加入晨壹基金，并购之路继续逍遥\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-21 11:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9_dx7fMUH2G9c8JMnikRwA><strong>暗涌Waves</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>「暗涌Waves」独家获悉，原阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇（逍遥子），将加盟晨壹基金，和创始人刘晓丹一起，共同担任管理合伙人。这是一个意料之外、但又情理之中的消息。意料之外在于，去年9月，当张勇卸任阿里的一系列管理职务后，人们猜测他会创办一家新基金。但客观来说，投资是一个讲究年份的行业，如今对创立一个新机构来说，或许不能算是最好的时机。情理之中则在于，从许多方面来看，这几乎是一个可以把...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9_dx7fMUH2G9c8JMnikRwA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d6e637fd8e70c86043792cb111b3e1","relate_stocks":{"LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE00B543WZ88.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A 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ACC","BK1249":"综合零售"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9_dx7fMUH2G9c8JMnikRwA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156030321","content_text":"「暗涌Waves」独家获悉，原阿里巴巴集团董事会主席兼首席执行官张勇（逍遥子），将加盟晨壹基金，和创始人刘晓丹一起，共同担任管理合伙人。这是一个意料之外、但又情理之中的消息。意料之外在于，去年9月，当张勇卸任阿里的一系列管理职务后，人们猜测他会创办一家新基金。但客观来说，投资是一个讲究年份的行业，如今对创立一个新机构来说，或许不能算是最好的时机。情理之中则在于，从许多方面来看，这几乎是一个可以把张勇的职业履历和投资完美结合的路径。不同于传统意义上的财务投资基金，自2019年成立之初，晨壹就鲜明旗帜地定义了自己：一家并购基金。作为这家机构的创始人，刘晓丹最为人所知的，也来自于她在华泰联合展开的大刀阔斧的改革，短短几年就将一个籍籍无名的地方券商，打造为国内的并购领导者。中国内资投行“三中一华”中的“华”，就是指刘晓丹领导下的华泰。她“并购女王”的名号也在此时立下。投资的本质都是低买高卖。但不同的是，财务投资赚的是估值的价差，而并购赚的是更复杂、也更辛苦的钱。这是因为并购的难点不仅在于交易，而更在于故事的后半段：如何令一家公司变得更好，或者说，实现价值增值。这更接近于创始人、经营者的视角，而非投资人的。这大概也是张勇和刘晓丹的互补意义。毕业于上海财经大学的张勇在1995年至2005年间，先后任职于安达信、普华永道两大会计师事务所，而后加入盛大集团任财务总监，其后一路做到CFO：其间他完善了公司的财务与投资体系，延展了盛大的资本想象力。有盛大当时的高管曾告诉「暗涌Waves」，当年公司接连的投资行为中，作为财务负责人的张勇深入参与了决策、尽调等工作。2007年8月，张勇在盛大出完当季财报后，正式到陈天桥口中“规模较小的私人公司”阿里巴巴报到，出任淘宝网CFO。2015年5月，张勇接任阿里巴巴集团CEO，并在四年后的2019年9月成为阿里巴巴集团董事会主席，带领这一超大型组织经历了环境的剧烈变化和一系列挑战。这些经历或许也是张勇选择晨壹的原因。并购在中国，道阻且长。在过去二十年的国内资本市场，这是一个时常被提及、但又总是差一分火候的概念。究其根本，并购往往是更成熟的资本市场、乃至商业体系的标志和产物。按照刘晓丹曾经的概括，美国之所以成为一个成熟的并购市场，源于其产业竞争、资本市场、公司治理这三要素都同时出现了。但在2023年3月的一次分享中，她说，第一次感觉到这三要素在中国同时闪现，“并购市场系统性的机会出现了。”刘晓丹曾说过的一句话：“管理一定是难的，这也是并购基金创造价值的根本”。她和张勇的组合，或许将有助于推动更多的企业以及投资者重新思考并购的价值，激发并购市场的活力。晨壹基金已完成多笔投资并购案例，最具代表性的包括：2020年3月，入局华兰疫苗，并在之后成功收获基金第一个IPO。同年5月，向比亚迪半导体注资1亿元战略投资。11月，晨壹向动力电池赛道龙头中创新航投资3.44亿，成功收获又一IPO。2021年晨壹携手团队，通过快速并购整合成立瑞辰宠物医院，22年分别获得爱尔医疗和KKR的投资加持。还有今年年初的消息是，迈瑞医疗收购惠泰医疗控股权，完成了科创板首单“A控A”并购，晨壹发挥了独特作用，这被视为中国并购大年启动的风向标。伴随着过去十年创投行业的狼奔豕突，如今确实有大量的存量资产存在并购和优化重组的机会。据「暗涌Waves」了解，几乎所有二级投行、一级市场FA，都已经将并购（MA）业务作为了2024年业务重点。同花顺iFinD数据也显示，截至3月18日，年内A股市场共披露430单并购重组，其中63单已完成，367单正在进行。放眼如今的资本市场，张勇似乎做了一个能够最大化优势的绝妙选择。值得一提的是，许多接近张勇和刘晓丹的人，对他们二人的评价中都有共同的一点：“是真的低调”。身处一个热闹的行业，相似的精神气质，或许才是合作默契的基石。祝福他，投资人张勇。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":285977424974128,"gmtCreate":1710837153316,"gmtModify":1710837818331,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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19:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>法拉第未来打算对已发行股票和流通股进行反向拆分，比例为1比3，预计将于美国东部时间2月29日下午5点生效。该公司的普通股预计将于2024年3月1日开盘后以拆分调整后的方式开始交易。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf524f2e8f132fdb5214f863587763c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ac86bdab506d9898920e00d5d818b2","relate_stocks":{"FFIE":"Faraday 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justify;\">截至2023年7月31日，理想汽车在全国已有337家零售中心，覆盖128个城市；售后维修中心及授权钣喷中心323家，覆盖222个城市。</p><p>理想汽车美股盘前走高，现涨近2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b4ed7f27f2970cc2e72502a2890f57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"827\"/></p><p><br/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>理想汽车7月共计交付新车34134辆，同比增长227.5%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n理想汽车7月共计交付新车34134辆，同比增长227.5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-08-01 16:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>8月1日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>公布2023年7月交付数据。2023年7月，理想汽车共计交付新车34,134辆，同比增长227.5%，并已连续两个月交付量突破三万。至此，理想汽车2023年累计交付量已经达到173,251辆。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/064f046c8e2c31cfdedbfb4e92e20110\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2338\"/></p><p>“作为家庭首选的豪华汽车品牌，我们于7月完成了第40万辆用户交付，成为国内首家取得这一成绩的新势力车企。理想L系列三款车型自去年6月相继发布以来，累计交付已经超过20万辆，并在二季度连续3个月蝉联30万元以上SUV销量冠军，持续领跑中国豪华汽车品牌的市场表现。其中，家庭五座旗舰SUV——理想L7在上市5个月时间内，总交付量顺利突破5万辆；品牌旗下两款六座SUV产品，理想L8和理想L9的交付量从今年3月的1.2万辆提升到7月的2万辆，强大的产品力很好地应对了各种新产品的挑战，进一步转化成为销量红利。此外，我们将于本月内通过OTA方式向用户推送理想魔毯空气悬架™2.0，带来更好的操控和悬架体验。”理想汽车董事长兼CEO李想说。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至2023年7月31日，理想汽车在全国已有337家零售中心，覆盖128个城市；售后维修中心及授权钣喷中心323家，覆盖222个城市。</p><p>理想汽车美股盘前走高，现涨近2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b4ed7f27f2970cc2e72502a2890f57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"827\"/></p><p><br/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9abe0e9e278b48e36d3cb87745e11936","relate_stocks":{"BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1539":"汽车股","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4588":"碎股","BK4526":"热门中概股","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK1587":"次新股","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK1119":"汽车制造商","LI":"理想汽车","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4563":"昨日强势股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162065068","content_text":"8月1日，理想汽车公布2023年7月交付数据。2023年7月，理想汽车共计交付新车34,134辆，同比增长227.5%，并已连续两个月交付量突破三万。至此，理想汽车2023年累计交付量已经达到173,251辆。“作为家庭首选的豪华汽车品牌，我们于7月完成了第40万辆用户交付，成为国内首家取得这一成绩的新势力车企。理想L系列三款车型自去年6月相继发布以来，累计交付已经超过20万辆，并在二季度连续3个月蝉联30万元以上SUV销量冠军，持续领跑中国豪华汽车品牌的市场表现。其中，家庭五座旗舰SUV——理想L7在上市5个月时间内，总交付量顺利突破5万辆；品牌旗下两款六座SUV产品，理想L8和理想L9的交付量从今年3月的1.2万辆提升到7月的2万辆，强大的产品力很好地应对了各种新产品的挑战，进一步转化成为销量红利。此外，我们将于本月内通过OTA方式向用户推送理想魔毯空气悬架™2.0，带来更好的操控和悬架体验。”理想汽车董事长兼CEO李想说。截至2023年7月31日，理想汽车在全国已有337家零售中心，覆盖128个城市；售后维修中心及授权钣喷中心323家，覆盖222个城市。理想汽车美股盘前走高，现涨近2%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570785536335171","authorId":"3570785536335171","name":"理想中的生活","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65c479a9ad67b62f5e90c49862edbb4c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"网上骂的都是“兜比脸干净的穷逼山炮”","text":"网上骂的都是“兜比脸干净的穷逼山炮”","html":"网上骂的都是“兜比脸干净的穷逼山炮”"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":229797964050656,"gmtCreate":1697121608288,"gmtModify":1697121609446,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$&nbsp;</a>中国互联网没有空间了，都别买互联网了，看看别的科技股吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$&nbsp;</a>中国互联网没有空间了，都别买互联网了，看看别的科技股吧","text":"$京东(JD)$ 中国互联网没有空间了，都别买互联网了，看看别的科技股吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/229797964050656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":224871968137432,"gmtCreate":1695908385309,"gmtModify":1695908386234,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>都别买了，让他自己玩儿吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>都别买了，让他自己玩儿吧","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 都别买了，让他自己玩儿吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/224871968137432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3444732750101190","authorId":"3444732750101190","name":"行天下639800","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/7a9872d82227fdf805e09770cb2961a8","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"骗了别人一辈子，最后也得被别人骗吧？","text":"骗了别人一辈子，最后也得被别人骗吧？","html":"骗了别人一辈子，最后也得被别人骗吧？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":213799381442720,"gmtCreate":1693215140921,"gmtModify":1693215141850,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a>这是被疯狂做空了呀，老贾，你该怎么办","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a>这是被疯狂做空了呀，老贾，你该怎么办","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 这是被疯狂做空了呀，老贾，你该怎么办","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/213799381442720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3448483394558554","authorId":"3448483394558554","name":"少林大方丈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24dbd9e509b96828b94a0fc71ae67bf","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"兄弟，做空的就是他本人啊","text":"兄弟，做空的就是他本人啊","html":"兄弟，做空的就是他本人啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":200014951256216,"gmtCreate":1689863864955,"gmtModify":1689864161350,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>先帝摁到200，然后上车","listText":"<a 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老贾加油","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193014491242616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":192574828519504,"gmtCreate":1688057363539,"gmtModify":1688057365592,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>这玩意，感觉又得变成一毛。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>这玩意，感觉又得变成一毛。","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 这玩意，感觉又得变成一毛。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192574828519504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3474371758107152","authorId":"3474371758107152","name":"Justin_08","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a21ccdf1037446d6da5ea5b9c038705","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"底线是一毛二！但是合股之后就没有底线了！","text":"底线是一毛二！但是合股之后就没有底线了！","html":"底线是一毛二！但是合股之后就没有底线了！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":651717374,"gmtCreate":1682083552698,"gmtModify":1682083553807,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>今晚继续跌","listText":"<a 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你先看看是先发生战争还是先AI工业革命吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653633438","repostId":"1182785054","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182785054","pubTimestamp":1680766226,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182785054?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-06 15:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AI Could Have a $7 Trillion Impact in 10 Years: Here Are 4 Top Stocks to Buy Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182785054","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These technology leaders could be some of the biggest winners from the rapid adoption of AI.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li><p>Goldman Sachs projects that AI will have a global economic impact of close to $7 trillion over the next 10 years.</p></li><li><p>Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia should profit tremendously from this AI boom.</p></li></ul><p>&#34;Significant disruption.&#34; That&#39;s the impact that <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> thinks artificial intelligence (AI) will have on the labor market over the next few years. The Wall Street firm projects that generative AI could enable 300 million jobs globally to be fully automated, with as many as two-thirds of U.S. jobs partially automated by AI.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">But Goldman Sachs also thinks this significant disruption will lead to significant productivity gains. It estimates that AI could drive a 7% increase in annual global gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 10 years. This translates to an economic impact of close to $7 trillion. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">As you might expect, the AI market presents huge opportunities for investors. Here are four top AI stocks to buy now (listed in alphabetical order).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4736b33a022ef36e3f681517b1a4c046\" alt=\"IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\" title=\"IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"376\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">1. Alphabet</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Don&#39;t think for a second that <strong>Alphabet</strong> will be a second-tier player in AI. The company has invested heavily in AI technology and could be a big winner on multiple fronts.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Alphabet already benefits from AI incorporated into its search algorithms. The better these algorithms are, the more advertising revenue the company could potentially make. Its Google Cloud unit will almost certainly pick up additional business as companies scramble to adopt AI. </p><p>Sure, self-driving cars might have been overhyped in the past. However, they&#39;re coming -- and Alphabet&#39;s Waymo subsidiary is one of the leaders in developing the AI technology required to make autonomous vehicles a reality.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Last, but not least, Alphabet is a pioneer in quantum computing. This technology holds the potential to kick AI into a higher gear with its powerful processing capabilities. I view Alphabet&#39;s quantum computing effort as perhaps the most overlooked reason to buy the stock.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">2. Amazon</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Speaking of overlooked, <strong>Amazon</strong>&#39;s AI initiatives come to mind. The company has also invested heavily in AI. </p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Like Alphabet, Amazon&#39;s current business incorporates AI in several ways. Examples include the company&#39;s e-commerce platform&#39;s recommendations and, of course, its Alexa virtual assistant.</p><p>I suspect the biggest way that Amazon will win with the AI explosion, though, is with its Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS ranks as the top cloud provider based on market share. It&#39;s Amazon&#39;s fastest-growing and most profitable business. AWS teamed up with innovative AI company Hugging Face in February to make it easier for customers to create generative AI applications.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Amazon also has its foot in the door of the self-driving car market. The company acquired Zoox in 2020. Zoox hopes to enable autonomous ride-hailing services. Amazon could potentially use the technology for its own use in delivering products to homes as well.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">3. Microsoft</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>Microsoft</strong> has been a top player in AI for a long time. The company&#39;s partnership with and investment in OpenAI, though, has been a game changer. There are two main ways that Microsoft should benefit from its OpenAI integration.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">First, it&#39;s integrating OpenAI&#39;s ChatGPT throughout its Microsoft 365 product suite. Microsoft 365 competes neck and neck with Google&#39;s G Suite in the office productivity market. While Google plans to introduce its own rival generative AI technology, Microsoft has an opportunity to gain an early-mover advantage.</p><p>Second, Microsoft has its own cloud services unit called Azure. Like Google Cloud and AWS, Azure seeks to attract customers by making AI development as easy as possible. Microsoft hopes to leverage its ChatGPT integration with Azure to gain ground on AWS, the current market leader.</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">4. Nvidia</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft battle against each other in AI, <strong>Nvidia</strong> stands to win regardless of which tech giant comes out on top. The chipmaker has announced a string of deals with all three AI leaders in addition to a couple of other AI collaborations.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia and Amazon are working together to build a large-scale infrastructure on AWS for building AI apps. Google Cloud is using Nvidia&#39;s L4 Tensor Core graphics processing unit (GPU), which is ideal for building big generative AI models. Microsoft and Nvidia are teaming up to make Nvidia&#39;s supercomputing service DGX Cloud available on Azure.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Of course, lots of other tech companies are already using Nvidia&#39;s AI platform as well. Nvidia also has developed AI platforms for self-driving cars and other intelligence devices including drones and robots.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Nvidia&#39;s valuation is the richest of these four AI stocks. As such, it&#39;s likely to be the most volatile of the stocks. Over the long term, though, I expect that Nvidia will be among the biggest winners from the AI explosion.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI Could Have a $7 Trillion Impact in 10 Years: Here Are 4 Top Stocks to Buy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI Could Have a $7 Trillion Impact in 10 Years: Here Are 4 Top Stocks to Buy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-06 15:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/05/ai-7-trillion-impact-top-stocks-to-buy/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSGoldman Sachs projects that AI will have a global economic impact of close to $7 trillion over the next 10 years.Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia should profit tremendously from this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/05/ai-7-trillion-impact-top-stocks-to-buy/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A","MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/05/ai-7-trillion-impact-top-stocks-to-buy/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182785054","content_text":"KEY POINTSGoldman Sachs projects that AI will have a global economic impact of close to $7 trillion over the next 10 years.Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia should profit tremendously from this AI boom.\"Significant disruption.\" That's the impact that Goldman Sachs thinks artificial intelligence (AI) will have on the labor market over the next few years. The Wall Street firm projects that generative AI could enable 300 million jobs globally to be fully automated, with as many as two-thirds of U.S. jobs partially automated by AI.But Goldman Sachs also thinks this significant disruption will lead to significant productivity gains. It estimates that AI could drive a 7% increase in annual global gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 10 years. This translates to an economic impact of close to $7 trillion. As you might expect, the AI market presents huge opportunities for investors. Here are four top AI stocks to buy now (listed in alphabetical order).IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.1. AlphabetDon't think for a second that Alphabet will be a second-tier player in AI. The company has invested heavily in AI technology and could be a big winner on multiple fronts.Alphabet already benefits from AI incorporated into its search algorithms. The better these algorithms are, the more advertising revenue the company could potentially make. Its Google Cloud unit will almost certainly pick up additional business as companies scramble to adopt AI. Sure, self-driving cars might have been overhyped in the past. However, they're coming -- and Alphabet's Waymo subsidiary is one of the leaders in developing the AI technology required to make autonomous vehicles a reality.Last, but not least, Alphabet is a pioneer in quantum computing. This technology holds the potential to kick AI into a higher gear with its powerful processing capabilities. I view Alphabet's quantum computing effort as perhaps the most overlooked reason to buy the stock.2. AmazonSpeaking of overlooked, Amazon's AI initiatives come to mind. The company has also invested heavily in AI. Like Alphabet, Amazon's current business incorporates AI in several ways. Examples include the company's e-commerce platform's recommendations and, of course, its Alexa virtual assistant.I suspect the biggest way that Amazon will win with the AI explosion, though, is with its Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS ranks as the top cloud provider based on market share. It's Amazon's fastest-growing and most profitable business. AWS teamed up with innovative AI company Hugging Face in February to make it easier for customers to create generative AI applications.Amazon also has its foot in the door of the self-driving car market. The company acquired Zoox in 2020. Zoox hopes to enable autonomous ride-hailing services. Amazon could potentially use the technology for its own use in delivering products to homes as well.3. MicrosoftMicrosoft has been a top player in AI for a long time. The company's partnership with and investment in OpenAI, though, has been a game changer. There are two main ways that Microsoft should benefit from its OpenAI integration.First, it's integrating OpenAI's ChatGPT throughout its Microsoft 365 product suite. Microsoft 365 competes neck and neck with Google's G Suite in the office productivity market. While Google plans to introduce its own rival generative AI technology, Microsoft has an opportunity to gain an early-mover advantage.Second, Microsoft has its own cloud services unit called Azure. Like Google Cloud and AWS, Azure seeks to attract customers by making AI development as easy as possible. Microsoft hopes to leverage its ChatGPT integration with Azure to gain ground on AWS, the current market leader.4. NvidiaWhile Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft battle against each other in AI, Nvidia stands to win regardless of which tech giant comes out on top. The chipmaker has announced a string of deals with all three AI leaders in addition to a couple of other AI collaborations.Nvidia and Amazon are working together to build a large-scale infrastructure on AWS for building AI apps. Google Cloud is using Nvidia's L4 Tensor Core graphics processing unit (GPU), which is ideal for building big generative AI models. Microsoft and Nvidia are teaming up to make Nvidia's supercomputing service DGX Cloud available on Azure.Of course, lots of other tech companies are already using Nvidia's AI platform as well. Nvidia also has developed AI platforms for self-driving cars and other intelligence devices including drones and robots.Nvidia's valuation is the richest of these four AI stocks. As such, it's likely to be the most volatile of the stocks. Over the long term, though, I expect that Nvidia will be among the biggest winners from the AI explosion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549590090834116","authorId":"3549590090834116","name":"价值投资长线必胜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b6c3eb03a2f56f98d31b64ada02a9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我觉得先发生的是你失业","text":"我觉得先发生的是你失业","html":"我觉得先发生的是你失业"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624846857,"gmtCreate":1677252602979,"gmtModify":1677252855776,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"啥也不是 吹牛逼呢","listText":"啥也不是 吹牛逼呢","text":"啥也不是 吹牛逼呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624846857","repostId":"1116864163","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116864163","pubTimestamp":1677238030,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116864163?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-24 19:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉投资者日前瞻：宏图第三篇章的关键是什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116864163","media":"金十数据","summary":"距离特斯拉投资者日还有不到一周的时间，投资者关注的是，有什么新变化能够让特斯拉股价保持涨势。我行期待特斯拉新技术的公布，用更低的价格普及电动汽车--这是宏图第三篇章的关键部分。“3月1日，地球全面实现","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>距离特斯拉投资者日还有不到一周的时间</b>，投资者关注的是，有什么新变化能够让特斯拉股价保持涨势。我行期待特斯拉新技术的公布，用更低的价格普及电动汽车--这是宏图第三篇章的关键部分。</p><blockquote>“3月1日，地球全面实现能源可持续发展的未来之路——宏图第三篇章即将发布，未来一片光明。”——埃隆·马斯克，2023年2月8日</blockquote><p>Highland项目...历史背景：我行曾写道，特斯拉最近的降价在汽车历史上几乎是前所未有的。历史上，在汽车量产的早期，福特推出了Model T。亨利·福特于1913年将移动装配线引入密歇根州海兰帕克的工厂，彻底颠覆了汽车制造业。随后，价格通缩改变了汽车行业的竞争格局，大部分业内参与者遭淘汰。1907年，美国有255家汽车制造商，1929年减少到了44家，通用汽车、福特和克莱斯勒占了80%的市场份额。</p><p>我行认为，投资界可能低估了目前大部分电动车和电池技术企业的淘汰情况。特斯拉3月1日的投资者日很可能对特斯拉竞争者的市场洞察（以及市场估值）比对特斯拉本身意义更大。 .</p><p><b>迈向大众市场：</b>马斯克一直强调，<b>特斯拉的目标是成为大众化车企，推出价格更低的电动车，为降低全球汽车客户群的碳足迹作出表率。</b>然而，要实现这一目标，特斯拉将要：<b>1）成功降低其产品的平均价格；2）（最好）削减成本，守住利润的行业领先地位。</b>特斯拉的目标是推出价位在25,000美元左右、富有竞争力的产品，因此该公司必须在降低目前每辆车的运营成本（22财年约为3.9万美元）上取得重大进展。<b>Model 3内部的重新设计（Highland计划）和随后经验的提升可能标志着特斯拉正朝着正确的方向迈进。</b></p><p>特斯拉有<b>两大战略重点：1）减少每单位的销货成本；和2）提高效率、扩大规模、增加供应链安全性。</b>以最简约的设计和制造工艺，实现每个车型/SKU和每个工厂的最高产量，这将是衡量工业化进步的方法之一，最终将对全球电动车行业标准起决定性作用。</p><p><b>Highland项目：</b>去年11月，路透社报道称，&#34;Highland计划 &#34;的目的是<b>对Model 3的部件和内部进行重大改造</b>。后来的特斯拉文件显示，从2022年6月中旬开始，特斯拉弗里蒙特工厂的装配线会进行重装，这在一定程度上道明了 &#34;Highland计划 &#34;的目标。车头和车尾被覆盖的Model 3的图片引发了关于外观是否也会改变的讨论。据报道，最近特斯拉上海工厂计划停产，为重新改造的Model 3进行升级，可能标志着改进措施的首次应用。有消息称，该项目旨在降低Model 3的内部复杂性，同时更新其中对客户重要的部分，包括显示屏。</p><p><b>为什么该计划很重要：</b>尽管自2017年推出以来，Model 3取得了成功，但最近，这款车在特斯拉三大市场中的份额减少得比其他产品快。随着电动汽车竞争的加剧，电动汽车价格通缩的早期迹象出现，<b>重新改装的Model 3可以激发买家的兴趣，同时节约成本。为了保持电动汽车领域的领先地位，特斯拉需要不断提生产效率。</b>特斯拉首席财务官在第四季度财报电话会议上回答了相关问题，当时他被问及特斯拉是否能够在降价的同时保持20%的利润率。我行认为，如果特斯拉要成功实现推出2.5万美元车型的目标，就要在以下方面有所改进：<b>1) 大尺寸铸件-Giga Press；2)2020年电池日期间提出的电池制造改进。</b></p><blockquote>“我认为，生产制造将是特斯拉的长期可持续优势……特斯拉的生产制造技术难以复制。所以，从长远来看，这非常重要。”——埃隆·马斯克，特斯拉2022年股东大会</blockquote><p><b>特斯拉一直处于汽车制造技术的最前沿。</b>根据我行与特斯拉的对话，自从2020年电池日宣布为Model Y推出Giga Press以来，到2021年，特斯拉的Giga Press数量增加到4 - 5台，但现在可能已经发生了改变。据我行所知，2020年电池日后的三年里，<b>特斯拉仍然是唯一一家为大型结构汽车框架件提供一体式铸造的西方原始设备制造商（OEM）。</b>相关效率（降低生产复杂性，缩短每辆车的生产时间）可能是特斯拉利润领先行业的重要因素。</p><p>目前的内燃机汽车大约有1万个零部件……能产出少于1000个零部件的汽车吗？底盘和动力系统只有不到100个零部件的汽车能生产出来吗？要在近十年内实现这些目标可能还不太现实，<b>但特斯拉正在快速减少汽车所需的零部件数量，提高汽车底盘关键结构部件的性能。</b>与特斯拉的4680电池组设计相结合时，汽车生产的可变成本有可能发生变化。<b>提高车辆的可购性对释放印度、除中国以外的亚洲地区和其他发展中地区等关键市场的潜力至关重要，这是全球电动汽车渗透率＞50%的先决条件。</b></p><p>我行预测，到2030年，全球特斯拉保有量将达到3370万辆…到2030年，特斯拉预计将交付720万辆汽车。其中，预计有260万辆是Model 3或未来的紧凑型汽车。作为比较，到2030年，预计福特（整体）将交付380万辆汽车，通用汽车（整体）将交付470万辆。规模经济本身只能带来这么多的增量。<b>特斯拉将依靠Giga Pressing等新技术的整合来提高其汽车增量，捍卫未来利润。</b></p><p>如果Highland确实是Model3更新项目，那么下一步自然很可能是将Giga Pressing纳入Model 3生产，因为：<b>1）Giga Press前后部铸造现在已经在Model Y中实现了，2）4680电池开始下线，为三件式滑板底盘逐渐提供空间，3）从建造低成本Model 3中获得的经验有助于25000美元车型的生产。</b>特斯拉2023年投资者日可能会提供重要信息，说明如何实现该目标。</p><p><b>Giga Press一体化铸造的优势</b></p><p><b>Giga Press技术具有多种优势。</b>尽管难以精确衡量一体化铸造省下的成本，但采用该技术能带来三大方面的改进。特斯拉称，柏林工厂每10小时就可以生产一辆Model Y。相比之下，大众前CEO赫伯特-迪斯（Herbert Diess）称，大众茨维考工厂每30个小时才能生产一辆车，目标是减少到20个小时，但仍然要比柏林超级工厂多出一倍时间。</p><p>1）<b>减少零件和质量。</b>一体式铸造抛弃需要机器人或人工焊接的传统部件，降低了焊接过程的整体成本。此外，特斯拉估计，一体式铸造加上结构性电池组可以节省约10%的质量，并将续航能力提高14%。</p><p>2）<b>减少制造面积和对机器人焊接的依赖。</b>特斯拉报告称，与传统生产线相比，Giga Press节省了35%的制造空间。此外，焊接过程要使用1000个机器人手臂，现在每个前后件的焊接能减少300个机器人。目前，生产Model Y的机器人数仅为生产Model 3的30%。</p><p>3）<b>提高生产力，缩短生产时间。</b>我行中国汽车团队称，非承载式车身铸造所需的生产时间更短。据Giga Press称，6000T的非承载式车身铸造机只需80-90秒就能完成一个零件的制造，而传统工艺焊则需要1-2个小时的焊接时间。假设每天运作16小时，一台6000T的一体式铸造机每天可生产640-720个零件。传统焊接方面，比亚迪称，一条有300个机械臂的典型生产线每小时可生产约70辆汽车，即每天可生产840辆车。相比之下，<b>两套单体铸造机的生产力将超过300个焊接机械臂的生产力。</b></p><p>4）<b>可持续的、有竞争力的优势。</b>马斯克曾多次表示，制造将是特斯拉关键、长期可持续的优势。特斯拉认为，打造产品制造系统远比产品生产本身复杂。</p><p>为什么其他车企不用巨型铸件呢？我行与一家全球主要OEM的高级车身工程师讨论了特斯拉Giga Press的相关话题，以及其他/传统车企短期内还不会朝这个方向发展的原因。以下是谈话得出的重要结论：</p><p><b>巨型铸件难以整合到现有的车身车间。</b>巨型铸件会淘汰目前传统OEM车身车间的许多先进设备、焊接/铆接/粘接和机器人技术。</p><p><b>车身形态的灵活性。</b>传统OEM为众多品牌打造不同的车身形状和配置，每个铭牌的生产成本较低，需要在传统的冲压操作中更换模具。他们认为，Giga Press是为单一车身样式/平台配置的量产而设计的。 .</p><p><b>重复使用性、文化以及其他因素。</b>传统OEM正试图 &#34;转换 &#34;现有的内燃机车产能以适应电动车生产。他们希望尽可能保留并重复使用现有的资本设备和工具。如果要转变为Giga Press，整个车身车间有可能就要进行大改造或者重建了。</p><p><b>结构电池：让汽车成为电池本身</b></p><p><b>结构电池组和内华达超级工厂的扩建是特斯拉三件式“滑板”底盘拼图中的第三个组成部分。</b>最近宣布提高内华达超级工厂电池产能后，<b>特斯拉正投入巨大努力以提高电池产能。</b></p><p>每GWh的（隐含）投资都在缩小特斯拉与2020年电池日目标的差距，该目标希望，每GWh的资本支出成本能减少69%。我行估计，Semi 工厂的生产成本约为5-6亿美元，这意味着100GWh电池工厂的生产成本约为30亿美元，换算以下可知，每10 GWh的成本大约为3亿美元，将意味着<b>内华达超级工厂的电池产量扩张约为竞争对手的三分之一。</b>2020年，我行韩国化学品和电池分析师Young Suk Shin估计，对于大多数亚洲电池制造商而言，10 GWh电池容量的价格约为6亿美元；将该数据与特斯拉69%的成本削减目标结合，意味着1.74亿美元/10 GWh。内华达超级工厂的成本为为3亿美元/10 GWh，已经比2020年广泛接受的行业投资/GWh成本减少了50%。</p><p>特斯拉可能将为电池成本设定更低的新行业价格。我行中国汽车/电池分析师Jack Lu认为，8000万美元/GWh的资本支出是电池的标准，不包括阴极。阴极的资本支出约为5-8毫米/千瓦时（LFP阴极用量为1.6公斤/千瓦时，NCM为2.7公斤）。Young Suk Shin指出，韩国电池制造商对非美国的扩张报价为50-60mm/GWh，对美国的扩张报价为+90-120mn/GWh，不包括阴极。对于韩国阴极（所有NCM），企业对非美国扩张的指引价为800-900万美元/GWh，对美国扩张的指引价则高出30-40%。特斯拉的电池资本支出为3000万/GWh，比中国和韩国的同行低60-70%。</p><p>在与客户的交谈中，我行认为<b>特斯拉的制造能力可能被低估了。</b>综合4680电池的产能增加以及Giga Press前后部铸造来看，我行认为特斯拉的制造是进一步提高电动汽车相较于内燃机汽车的竞争力关键。无论动力传动系统如何，如果特斯拉要成为全球领先的OEM，质量提高和成本削减至关重要。</p><p><b>生产力分析</b></p><p>虽然基数很低，但<b>特斯拉分摊到每个员工的车辆交付量显著增长。</b>为了更好第评估传统车企和电动车车企的生产力，我行对欧盟、美国和亚洲的主要西方OEM收入和每单位产品交付量进行了比较。过去几年里，比较组中的大多数OEM每员工的交付量已经减少，疫情带来的供应链挑战和其他经济因素是导致该现象的部分原因。</p><p>我行估计，与美国平均水平相比，<b>特斯拉制造方面的持续创新将大大减少每辆汽车交付所需的人员数量。</b>我行认为，Giga Press的扩张和特斯拉制造的持续改进推动了效率的提高。因此，我行预计特斯拉2026年的汽车成本费用（不包括ZEV积分）占汽车收入的77%，相比之下，通用汽车为81%，福特为91%。我行注意到，特斯拉每名员工每年交付的汽车数量仍未超过通用汽车和福特。</p><p>特斯拉强大制造能力让其在电动汽车行业遥遥领先。尽管电动汽车OEM在目标市场、平均ASP和制造方法上的差异很大，但根据我行目前每单位COGS预测，<b>电动汽车初创企业即使在2026年也无法赶上特斯拉目前的水平。</b></p><p><b>特斯拉对制造业的关注：近期时间线</b></p><p>2020年第一季度，马斯克在谈到中国超级工厂的制造时说：“我们为Model Y推出了一种革命性的两件式后车身下部铸件，但今年晚些时候我们将<b>生产一件式铸件</b>，也就是说，<b>基本上车身后面的三分之一是作为整体进行铸造的，以前从未有过尺寸和复杂性如此之大的铸件。</b>没有任何东西能与Model Y的两件式铸造相媲美。所以，我们真的在挑战汽车结构工程和制造的极限。我对此非常兴奋，因为这样我们就能<b>减轻铸件的重量，提高NVH。</b>可以说是让各个方面都得到提升。”</p><p>2020年第二季度，马斯克在谈制造系统时说：&#34;设计新的生产系统让我很激动、很有成就感。我认为，由于某种原因，我在美国不太讨喜，这种情况持续了有一阵子了。人们可能觉得制造方面没什么亮点，但实际上，<b>制造业的创新机会远远多于产品本身的创新机会。</b>&#34;</p><p>2020年第三季度，马斯克谈建厂时说：“我们在柏林、德克萨斯州和奥斯汀建工厂。我们在这方面取得了不错的进展。我要强调的一点是，对于柏林和奥斯汀，我们确实希望从明年开始，这些工厂就能交付汽车。但是对新建的工厂而言，特别是新技术工厂，初期生产进展会很慢，然后产能会逐渐变大。一般来说，制造遵循s曲线。我认为有时候，如果人们没有花足够的时间在制造上，他们就会觉得只要工厂落成了，就能马上投产，让它满负荷运转。但通常需要12到18个月才能满负荷运转。时间非常短，尤其是对新技术来说。所以，我认为，这甚至可能需要12到24个月。”</p><p>2020年第四季度，马斯克谈制造业竞争优势时说：”与其他汽车公司或任何公司相比，<b>特斯拉绝对是垂直整合的</b>。我们拥有大量自主研发的内部制造技术。我们确实是在自制设备。如果我们要生产某种产品，那么我们就会设计某样设备或即期来进行生产。这样一来，<b>别人就很难抄特斯拉的作业。</b>当然，我们并不是说坚决反对别人抄我们，但这很有难度，因为他们做不了目录工程。不是拿着供应商目录就能造出和我们一模一样的机器。”</p><p>2021年第一季度，柯霍恩谈主营业务成本优化：&#34;显然，制造一辆像Model S这样的汽车相当复杂，需要用到各种移动部件。<b>优化成本可以从Model 3和Model Y入手。</b>但我们在Model Y、奥斯汀和柏林超级工厂方面已经取得进步，我们已经减少了多达60%的车身数量，这部分是有成本的。因此，<b>我们将继续在这些方面进行成本优化，实现规模经济，产量方面，我们正在考虑用4家工厂制造同一款车。</b>因此，车辆生产这两方面将有助于成本优化，动力系统也会不断加入成本优化的队伍当中。&#34;</p><p>2021年第二季度，马斯克谈特斯拉的制造规模：&#34;应对大型制造规模扩张的所有制约因素相当困难。特斯拉目前是这样的。<b>我们对大型制造的规模扩展可能是有史以来最快的。</b>也许当年福特的Model T可以与之相比。&#34;</p><p>2021年第三季度，马斯克谈奥斯汀和柏林超级工厂的区别：&#34;不过，总的来说，<b>我们试图对制造系统进行系统性推进，制定某种合乎逻辑的方式，在某些情况下，两个工厂的改进决策可能有所不同。</b>适用于奥斯汀的，可能就不适用于柏林。但它们都是系统推进的一部分，就像制造设备的机器。”</p><p>2021年第四季度，马斯克谈扩大新产能：&#34;在德克萨斯州，<b>我们正在建造拥有结构电池组和4680电池的Model Y</b>，我们将在车辆最终获批后开始交付，这应该花不了多长时间。我们将继续通过最大限度地提高每个工厂的产量和成立新工厂来扩大产能。虽然我们还没有准备好在这次电话会议上宣布任何新的工厂选址，但我们将在2022年之前找到新选址，估计今年年底就会公布。&#34;</p><p>2022年第一季度，马斯克谈前后部的铸件以及结构电池组：&#34;相对于标准的汽车制造方式，<b>结构电池和前后铸件能将车身车间的规模缩小60%以上。</b>&#34;</p><p>2022年第二季度，马斯克谈铸造工艺：&#34;后部铸件已经比以前好得多了，过去，要将120个不同的部件焊接在一起，或用不同的合金粘合在一起，然后必须在所有不同的部件之间涂抹密封剂来防止进水和噪音。所以，我们目前的铸造环节已经比这好得多了。但还是有很多机会来减少铸件质量，并扩展铸件空间，容纳更多部件，以及让车辆的其他部分也适应这种变化。&#34;</p><p>2022年第三季度，巴戈里诺谈关于提升4680电池产量：&#34;但我们在许多方面取得了很大的进展，降低了技术风险。<b>交付周期已显著缩短，产量已大幅提高。</b>从弗里蒙特工厂到德克萨斯州工厂，我们已经做了大量简化工作，在提高4680电池生产速度方面是有帮助的。当然，这只是德州工厂众多生产线之一，不是每个工厂都如此。简约性和规模倍增。所以，我们对电池产能的走向感到兴奋。&#34;</p><p>2022年第四季度，马斯克谈3月1日投资者日：&#34;总之，我们的观点是，继续制造和销售更多的汽车。<b>我们有信心，能继续推动销量增长，同时保持行业最佳的运营利润。</b>正如我们之前多次提到的，我们希望成为最好的电动车制造商。真的，制造技术将是我们最关键的长期优势。我们将在3月1日的投资者日上详谈我们未来的投资计划。&#34;</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉投资者日前瞻：宏图第三篇章的关键是什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-24 19:27 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107316><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>距离特斯拉投资者日还有不到一周的时间，投资者关注的是，有什么新变化能够让特斯拉股价保持涨势。我行期待特斯拉新技术的公布，用更低的价格普及电动汽车--这是宏图第三篇章的关键部分。“3月1日，地球全面实现能源可持续发展的未来之路——宏图第三篇章即将发布，未来一片光明。”——埃隆·马斯克，2023年2月8日Highland项目...历史背景：我行曾写道，特斯拉最近的降价在汽车历史上几乎是前所未有的。历史...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107316\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/107316","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116864163","content_text":"距离特斯拉投资者日还有不到一周的时间，投资者关注的是，有什么新变化能够让特斯拉股价保持涨势。我行期待特斯拉新技术的公布，用更低的价格普及电动汽车--这是宏图第三篇章的关键部分。“3月1日，地球全面实现能源可持续发展的未来之路——宏图第三篇章即将发布，未来一片光明。”——埃隆·马斯克，2023年2月8日Highland项目...历史背景：我行曾写道，特斯拉最近的降价在汽车历史上几乎是前所未有的。历史上，在汽车量产的早期，福特推出了Model T。亨利·福特于1913年将移动装配线引入密歇根州海兰帕克的工厂，彻底颠覆了汽车制造业。随后，价格通缩改变了汽车行业的竞争格局，大部分业内参与者遭淘汰。1907年，美国有255家汽车制造商，1929年减少到了44家，通用汽车、福特和克莱斯勒占了80%的市场份额。我行认为，投资界可能低估了目前大部分电动车和电池技术企业的淘汰情况。特斯拉3月1日的投资者日很可能对特斯拉竞争者的市场洞察（以及市场估值）比对特斯拉本身意义更大。 .迈向大众市场：马斯克一直强调，特斯拉的目标是成为大众化车企，推出价格更低的电动车，为降低全球汽车客户群的碳足迹作出表率。然而，要实现这一目标，特斯拉将要：1）成功降低其产品的平均价格；2）（最好）削减成本，守住利润的行业领先地位。特斯拉的目标是推出价位在25,000美元左右、富有竞争力的产品，因此该公司必须在降低目前每辆车的运营成本（22财年约为3.9万美元）上取得重大进展。Model 3内部的重新设计（Highland计划）和随后经验的提升可能标志着特斯拉正朝着正确的方向迈进。特斯拉有两大战略重点：1）减少每单位的销货成本；和2）提高效率、扩大规模、增加供应链安全性。以最简约的设计和制造工艺，实现每个车型/SKU和每个工厂的最高产量，这将是衡量工业化进步的方法之一，最终将对全球电动车行业标准起决定性作用。Highland项目：去年11月，路透社报道称，\"Highland计划 \"的目的是对Model 3的部件和内部进行重大改造。后来的特斯拉文件显示，从2022年6月中旬开始，特斯拉弗里蒙特工厂的装配线会进行重装，这在一定程度上道明了 \"Highland计划 \"的目标。车头和车尾被覆盖的Model 3的图片引发了关于外观是否也会改变的讨论。据报道，最近特斯拉上海工厂计划停产，为重新改造的Model 3进行升级，可能标志着改进措施的首次应用。有消息称，该项目旨在降低Model 3的内部复杂性，同时更新其中对客户重要的部分，包括显示屏。为什么该计划很重要：尽管自2017年推出以来，Model 3取得了成功，但最近，这款车在特斯拉三大市场中的份额减少得比其他产品快。随着电动汽车竞争的加剧，电动汽车价格通缩的早期迹象出现，重新改装的Model 3可以激发买家的兴趣，同时节约成本。为了保持电动汽车领域的领先地位，特斯拉需要不断提生产效率。特斯拉首席财务官在第四季度财报电话会议上回答了相关问题，当时他被问及特斯拉是否能够在降价的同时保持20%的利润率。我行认为，如果特斯拉要成功实现推出2.5万美元车型的目标，就要在以下方面有所改进：1) 大尺寸铸件-Giga Press；2)2020年电池日期间提出的电池制造改进。“我认为，生产制造将是特斯拉的长期可持续优势……特斯拉的生产制造技术难以复制。所以，从长远来看，这非常重要。”——埃隆·马斯克，特斯拉2022年股东大会特斯拉一直处于汽车制造技术的最前沿。根据我行与特斯拉的对话，自从2020年电池日宣布为Model Y推出Giga Press以来，到2021年，特斯拉的Giga Press数量增加到4 - 5台，但现在可能已经发生了改变。据我行所知，2020年电池日后的三年里，特斯拉仍然是唯一一家为大型结构汽车框架件提供一体式铸造的西方原始设备制造商（OEM）。相关效率（降低生产复杂性，缩短每辆车的生产时间）可能是特斯拉利润领先行业的重要因素。目前的内燃机汽车大约有1万个零部件……能产出少于1000个零部件的汽车吗？底盘和动力系统只有不到100个零部件的汽车能生产出来吗？要在近十年内实现这些目标可能还不太现实，但特斯拉正在快速减少汽车所需的零部件数量，提高汽车底盘关键结构部件的性能。与特斯拉的4680电池组设计相结合时，汽车生产的可变成本有可能发生变化。提高车辆的可购性对释放印度、除中国以外的亚洲地区和其他发展中地区等关键市场的潜力至关重要，这是全球电动汽车渗透率＞50%的先决条件。我行预测，到2030年，全球特斯拉保有量将达到3370万辆…到2030年，特斯拉预计将交付720万辆汽车。其中，预计有260万辆是Model 3或未来的紧凑型汽车。作为比较，到2030年，预计福特（整体）将交付380万辆汽车，通用汽车（整体）将交付470万辆。规模经济本身只能带来这么多的增量。特斯拉将依靠Giga Pressing等新技术的整合来提高其汽车增量，捍卫未来利润。如果Highland确实是Model3更新项目，那么下一步自然很可能是将Giga Pressing纳入Model 3生产，因为：1）Giga Press前后部铸造现在已经在Model Y中实现了，2）4680电池开始下线，为三件式滑板底盘逐渐提供空间，3）从建造低成本Model 3中获得的经验有助于25000美元车型的生产。特斯拉2023年投资者日可能会提供重要信息，说明如何实现该目标。Giga Press一体化铸造的优势Giga Press技术具有多种优势。尽管难以精确衡量一体化铸造省下的成本，但采用该技术能带来三大方面的改进。特斯拉称，柏林工厂每10小时就可以生产一辆Model Y。相比之下，大众前CEO赫伯特-迪斯（Herbert Diess）称，大众茨维考工厂每30个小时才能生产一辆车，目标是减少到20个小时，但仍然要比柏林超级工厂多出一倍时间。1）减少零件和质量。一体式铸造抛弃需要机器人或人工焊接的传统部件，降低了焊接过程的整体成本。此外，特斯拉估计，一体式铸造加上结构性电池组可以节省约10%的质量，并将续航能力提高14%。2）减少制造面积和对机器人焊接的依赖。特斯拉报告称，与传统生产线相比，Giga Press节省了35%的制造空间。此外，焊接过程要使用1000个机器人手臂，现在每个前后件的焊接能减少300个机器人。目前，生产Model Y的机器人数仅为生产Model 3的30%。3）提高生产力，缩短生产时间。我行中国汽车团队称，非承载式车身铸造所需的生产时间更短。据Giga Press称，6000T的非承载式车身铸造机只需80-90秒就能完成一个零件的制造，而传统工艺焊则需要1-2个小时的焊接时间。假设每天运作16小时，一台6000T的一体式铸造机每天可生产640-720个零件。传统焊接方面，比亚迪称，一条有300个机械臂的典型生产线每小时可生产约70辆汽车，即每天可生产840辆车。相比之下，两套单体铸造机的生产力将超过300个焊接机械臂的生产力。4）可持续的、有竞争力的优势。马斯克曾多次表示，制造将是特斯拉关键、长期可持续的优势。特斯拉认为，打造产品制造系统远比产品生产本身复杂。为什么其他车企不用巨型铸件呢？我行与一家全球主要OEM的高级车身工程师讨论了特斯拉Giga Press的相关话题，以及其他/传统车企短期内还不会朝这个方向发展的原因。以下是谈话得出的重要结论：巨型铸件难以整合到现有的车身车间。巨型铸件会淘汰目前传统OEM车身车间的许多先进设备、焊接/铆接/粘接和机器人技术。车身形态的灵活性。传统OEM为众多品牌打造不同的车身形状和配置，每个铭牌的生产成本较低，需要在传统的冲压操作中更换模具。他们认为，Giga Press是为单一车身样式/平台配置的量产而设计的。 .重复使用性、文化以及其他因素。传统OEM正试图 \"转换 \"现有的内燃机车产能以适应电动车生产。他们希望尽可能保留并重复使用现有的资本设备和工具。如果要转变为Giga Press，整个车身车间有可能就要进行大改造或者重建了。结构电池：让汽车成为电池本身结构电池组和内华达超级工厂的扩建是特斯拉三件式“滑板”底盘拼图中的第三个组成部分。最近宣布提高内华达超级工厂电池产能后，特斯拉正投入巨大努力以提高电池产能。每GWh的（隐含）投资都在缩小特斯拉与2020年电池日目标的差距，该目标希望，每GWh的资本支出成本能减少69%。我行估计，Semi 工厂的生产成本约为5-6亿美元，这意味着100GWh电池工厂的生产成本约为30亿美元，换算以下可知，每10 GWh的成本大约为3亿美元，将意味着内华达超级工厂的电池产量扩张约为竞争对手的三分之一。2020年，我行韩国化学品和电池分析师Young Suk Shin估计，对于大多数亚洲电池制造商而言，10 GWh电池容量的价格约为6亿美元；将该数据与特斯拉69%的成本削减目标结合，意味着1.74亿美元/10 GWh。内华达超级工厂的成本为为3亿美元/10 GWh，已经比2020年广泛接受的行业投资/GWh成本减少了50%。特斯拉可能将为电池成本设定更低的新行业价格。我行中国汽车/电池分析师Jack Lu认为，8000万美元/GWh的资本支出是电池的标准，不包括阴极。阴极的资本支出约为5-8毫米/千瓦时（LFP阴极用量为1.6公斤/千瓦时，NCM为2.7公斤）。Young Suk Shin指出，韩国电池制造商对非美国的扩张报价为50-60mm/GWh，对美国的扩张报价为+90-120mn/GWh，不包括阴极。对于韩国阴极（所有NCM），企业对非美国扩张的指引价为800-900万美元/GWh，对美国扩张的指引价则高出30-40%。特斯拉的电池资本支出为3000万/GWh，比中国和韩国的同行低60-70%。在与客户的交谈中，我行认为特斯拉的制造能力可能被低估了。综合4680电池的产能增加以及Giga Press前后部铸造来看，我行认为特斯拉的制造是进一步提高电动汽车相较于内燃机汽车的竞争力关键。无论动力传动系统如何，如果特斯拉要成为全球领先的OEM，质量提高和成本削减至关重要。生产力分析虽然基数很低，但特斯拉分摊到每个员工的车辆交付量显著增长。为了更好第评估传统车企和电动车车企的生产力，我行对欧盟、美国和亚洲的主要西方OEM收入和每单位产品交付量进行了比较。过去几年里，比较组中的大多数OEM每员工的交付量已经减少，疫情带来的供应链挑战和其他经济因素是导致该现象的部分原因。我行估计，与美国平均水平相比，特斯拉制造方面的持续创新将大大减少每辆汽车交付所需的人员数量。我行认为，Giga Press的扩张和特斯拉制造的持续改进推动了效率的提高。因此，我行预计特斯拉2026年的汽车成本费用（不包括ZEV积分）占汽车收入的77%，相比之下，通用汽车为81%，福特为91%。我行注意到，特斯拉每名员工每年交付的汽车数量仍未超过通用汽车和福特。特斯拉强大制造能力让其在电动汽车行业遥遥领先。尽管电动汽车OEM在目标市场、平均ASP和制造方法上的差异很大，但根据我行目前每单位COGS预测，电动汽车初创企业即使在2026年也无法赶上特斯拉目前的水平。特斯拉对制造业的关注：近期时间线2020年第一季度，马斯克在谈到中国超级工厂的制造时说：“我们为Model Y推出了一种革命性的两件式后车身下部铸件，但今年晚些时候我们将生产一件式铸件，也就是说，基本上车身后面的三分之一是作为整体进行铸造的，以前从未有过尺寸和复杂性如此之大的铸件。没有任何东西能与Model Y的两件式铸造相媲美。所以，我们真的在挑战汽车结构工程和制造的极限。我对此非常兴奋，因为这样我们就能减轻铸件的重量，提高NVH。可以说是让各个方面都得到提升。”2020年第二季度，马斯克在谈制造系统时说：\"设计新的生产系统让我很激动、很有成就感。我认为，由于某种原因，我在美国不太讨喜，这种情况持续了有一阵子了。人们可能觉得制造方面没什么亮点，但实际上，制造业的创新机会远远多于产品本身的创新机会。\"2020年第三季度，马斯克谈建厂时说：“我们在柏林、德克萨斯州和奥斯汀建工厂。我们在这方面取得了不错的进展。我要强调的一点是，对于柏林和奥斯汀，我们确实希望从明年开始，这些工厂就能交付汽车。但是对新建的工厂而言，特别是新技术工厂，初期生产进展会很慢，然后产能会逐渐变大。一般来说，制造遵循s曲线。我认为有时候，如果人们没有花足够的时间在制造上，他们就会觉得只要工厂落成了，就能马上投产，让它满负荷运转。但通常需要12到18个月才能满负荷运转。时间非常短，尤其是对新技术来说。所以，我认为，这甚至可能需要12到24个月。”2020年第四季度，马斯克谈制造业竞争优势时说：”与其他汽车公司或任何公司相比，特斯拉绝对是垂直整合的。我们拥有大量自主研发的内部制造技术。我们确实是在自制设备。如果我们要生产某种产品，那么我们就会设计某样设备或即期来进行生产。这样一来，别人就很难抄特斯拉的作业。当然，我们并不是说坚决反对别人抄我们，但这很有难度，因为他们做不了目录工程。不是拿着供应商目录就能造出和我们一模一样的机器。”2021年第一季度，柯霍恩谈主营业务成本优化：\"显然，制造一辆像Model S这样的汽车相当复杂，需要用到各种移动部件。优化成本可以从Model 3和Model Y入手。但我们在Model Y、奥斯汀和柏林超级工厂方面已经取得进步，我们已经减少了多达60%的车身数量，这部分是有成本的。因此，我们将继续在这些方面进行成本优化，实现规模经济，产量方面，我们正在考虑用4家工厂制造同一款车。因此，车辆生产这两方面将有助于成本优化，动力系统也会不断加入成本优化的队伍当中。\"2021年第二季度，马斯克谈特斯拉的制造规模：\"应对大型制造规模扩张的所有制约因素相当困难。特斯拉目前是这样的。我们对大型制造的规模扩展可能是有史以来最快的。也许当年福特的Model T可以与之相比。\"2021年第三季度，马斯克谈奥斯汀和柏林超级工厂的区别：\"不过，总的来说，我们试图对制造系统进行系统性推进，制定某种合乎逻辑的方式，在某些情况下，两个工厂的改进决策可能有所不同。适用于奥斯汀的，可能就不适用于柏林。但它们都是系统推进的一部分，就像制造设备的机器。”2021年第四季度，马斯克谈扩大新产能：\"在德克萨斯州，我们正在建造拥有结构电池组和4680电池的Model Y，我们将在车辆最终获批后开始交付，这应该花不了多长时间。我们将继续通过最大限度地提高每个工厂的产量和成立新工厂来扩大产能。虽然我们还没有准备好在这次电话会议上宣布任何新的工厂选址，但我们将在2022年之前找到新选址，估计今年年底就会公布。\"2022年第一季度，马斯克谈前后部的铸件以及结构电池组：\"相对于标准的汽车制造方式，结构电池和前后铸件能将车身车间的规模缩小60%以上。\"2022年第二季度，马斯克谈铸造工艺：\"后部铸件已经比以前好得多了，过去，要将120个不同的部件焊接在一起，或用不同的合金粘合在一起，然后必须在所有不同的部件之间涂抹密封剂来防止进水和噪音。所以，我们目前的铸造环节已经比这好得多了。但还是有很多机会来减少铸件质量，并扩展铸件空间，容纳更多部件，以及让车辆的其他部分也适应这种变化。\"2022年第三季度，巴戈里诺谈关于提升4680电池产量：\"但我们在许多方面取得了很大的进展，降低了技术风险。交付周期已显著缩短，产量已大幅提高。从弗里蒙特工厂到德克萨斯州工厂，我们已经做了大量简化工作，在提高4680电池生产速度方面是有帮助的。当然，这只是德州工厂众多生产线之一，不是每个工厂都如此。简约性和规模倍增。所以，我们对电池产能的走向感到兴奋。\"2022年第四季度，马斯克谈3月1日投资者日：\"总之，我们的观点是，继续制造和销售更多的汽车。我们有信心，能继续推动销量增长，同时保持行业最佳的运营利润。正如我们之前多次提到的，我们希望成为最好的电动车制造商。真的，制造技术将是我们最关键的长期优势。我们将在3月1日的投资者日上详谈我们未来的投资计划。\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117081887906090","authorId":"4117081887906090","name":"且听以往","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da862d41684c601f60f8b0f368042da","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你有依据证明啥啊","text":"你有依据证明啥啊","html":"你有依据证明啥啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":653309504,"gmtCreate":1680527796408,"gmtModify":1680527797129,"author":{"id":"3571209630068066","authorId":"3571209630068066","name":"小福哥儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef9be0add6c14d1316034a0077e646c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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