大巴特的个人主页 - 老虎社区

大巴特

大巴特

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IP属地：北京

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2主题

0勋章

10-23

$华润饮料(02460)$ 哎哟我去。暗盘晚上给成交了，交易的时候没成交，也撤不了单，晚上十点多成交，这是什么操作啊[开心] [开心] [开心]

10-22

$华润饮料(02460)$ 个把小时了，居然还不能恢复，不会这么菜吧

10-22

$华润饮料(02460)$ 什么时候能恢复啊？卡死了，成交也不成交，撤也撤不了[开心]

10-22

$华润饮料(02460)$ 这是个什么情况啊，交易行情价格远超我的挂单价格，并且时间有几分钟，成交也不成交，撤单也不能撤单！

10-21

$华润饮料(02460)$ 中了一手，完犊子了，看了你的文章，这不废了吗！

超购236倍！华润饮料晋级“冻资王”！上限定价有没有底气？

10-02

$云学堂(YXT)$ 是不是欺诈上市啊，发行价都11，跌到2.7难道股票只值这个价

09-11

这个时候推荐农业银行，这不怕人骂呐？

华安证券：给予农业银行买入评级

08-28

$云学堂(YXT)$ 我这股还有救吗？[笑哭]

08-19

$云学堂(YXT)$ 感觉美股这新股啊不能玩啊。成交都没有，上来就僵尸了

08-17

$云学堂(YXT)$ 这个签中的，一言难尽啊，醒来一看成这样了，[流泪]

08-16

Replying to @tonystark:没看业绩 [开心]//@tonystark:业务太拉夸了

@大巴特:$云学堂(YXT)$ 公布了，中了100股，[开心]

08-16

$云学堂(YXT)$ 公布了，中了100股，[开心]

08-04

巴黎，看斜塔

07-26

‌$星竞威武(NIPG)$ ‌卖了的留个话啊，是不是没怎么赚钱，留言的心思都没有了‌[流泪] ‌

07-26

‌$星竞威武(NIPG)$ ‌完犊子呢‌[流泪] ‌‌[流泪] ‌‌[流泪] ‌小钱都搞不到

06-13

加入的早，

06-10

不负众望与众不同万众一心才华出众一举高中

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362834726674568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362768593854544,"gmtCreate":1729589080616,"gmtModify":1729589081721,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a> 个把小时了，居然还不能恢复，不会这么菜吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a> 个把小时了，居然还不能恢复，不会这么菜吧","text":"$华润饮料(02460)$ 个把小时了，居然还不能恢复，不会这么菜吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362768593854544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3439776090804782","authorId":"3439776090804782","name":"Super_dawen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3439776090804782","authorIdStr":"3439776090804782"},"content":"一个多小时了，看样子不用准备卖了，等明天开盘了","text":"一个多小时了，看样子不用准备卖了，等明天开盘了","html":"一个多小时了，看样子不用准备卖了，等明天开盘了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362761447297296,"gmtCreate":1729587297675,"gmtModify":1729587299169,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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什么时候能恢复啊？卡死了，成交也不成交，撤也撤不了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362761447297296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"37000856390400","authorId":"37000856390400","name":"小虎通知","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/40ff9573326cbdce8ed2a4976ed63455","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"37000856390400","authorIdStr":"37000856390400"},"content":"感谢您的反馈。目前下单系统已恢复正常。对于之前因系统卡顿未能成交的订单，请您先撤销，然后重新提交。此次卡顿是由于暗盘开盘时交易量激增所致。给您带来的不便，我们深表歉意。","text":"感谢您的反馈。目前下单系统已恢复正常。对于之前因系统卡顿未能成交的订单，请您先撤销，然后重新提交。此次卡顿是由于暗盘开盘时交易量激增所致。给您带来的不便，我们深表歉意。","html":"感谢您的反馈。目前下单系统已恢复正常。对于之前因系统卡顿未能成交的订单，请您先撤销，然后重新提交。此次卡顿是由于暗盘开盘时交易量激增所致。给您带来的不便，我们深表歉意。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362758010777664,"gmtCreate":1729586455152,"gmtModify":1729586463274,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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这是个什么情况啊，交易行情价格远超我的挂单价格，并且时间有几分钟，成交也不成交，撤单也不能撤单！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcad84fff5ca6f096318031871854f84","width":"1280","height":"1707"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73f40a3f94bd898e97d06daf81f46c84","width":"1280","height":"1707"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b917591f4a7f96dd626bec864b2843d4","width":"1280","height":"1707"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362758010777664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3533541703309929","authorId":"3533541703309929","name":"wxdats","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b06ec4d00bdbfefcb1bcfb1ac37bb444","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3533541703309929","authorIdStr":"3533541703309929"},"content":"也撤不掉，也买不进？啥情况","text":"也撤不掉，也买不进？啥情况","html":"也撤不掉，也买不进？啥情况"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362398338965568,"gmtCreate":1729505521697,"gmtModify":1729505680559,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a>中了一手， 完犊子了，看了你的文章，这不废了吗！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a>中了一手， 完犊子了，看了你的文章，这不废了吗！","text":"$华润饮料(02460)$ 中了一手， 完犊子了，看了你的文章，这不废了吗！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362398338965568","repostId":"2476323632","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2476323632","pubTimestamp":1729479048,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2476323632?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-21 10:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"超购236倍！华润饮料晋级“冻资王”！上限定价有没有底气？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2476323632","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"港股打新市场火爆，瓶装水“怡宝”生产商华润饮料受追捧，刷新今年“冻资”纪录。分产品来看，华润饮料以怡宝为核心品牌，进行包装饮用水产品的生产与销售。但实际观察来看，华润饮料旗下饮料产品在市场上的影响力相当有限，市场知名度也不显，表现在收入上，也没有取得很好成绩。鉴于此，亟需扩充品类的华润饮料也不得不选择赴港“补血”。不过，就目前来看，饮料水业务尚未起势，成为华润饮料成长的隐忧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d705fea881c5a524d0ba459248e15000\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p>港股打新市场火爆，瓶装水“怡宝”生产商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">华润饮料</a>(02460)受追捧，刷新今年“冻资”纪录。</p><p>截止周五(18日)中午认购结束，市传其公开发售部分已超购236倍，冻资金额逾1,323.9亿港元，超过本月初的上市的厨具品牌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02549\">卡罗特</a>(02549）的1010.5亿，成为今年新股“冻资王”。由于市场需求强劲，仅经香港本地券商辉立证券一家，累计申请认购总额近700亿元，约120倍。</p><p>华润饮料以每股招股价介乎13.5至14.5元，发行约3.47亿股，集资最多约50.43亿元，为今年第二大新股。每手200股，入场费2,929.24元，预期下周三(23日)挂牌。瑞银、中银国际、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>及美银证券为联席保荐人。</p><p>IFR引述知情人士称，由于当下港股市场打新投资者对于定价并不敏感，发行人有望把价格定在招股价范围的最高位的14.5港元。</p><p>华润是9月25号过的聆讯，招股期本来定的10月初，最终延后了一周多，有未经证实的小道市场消息称，其中之一原因是定价没定好，询价时行情好，想募资80亿，结果众多机构不买账，最后定了50亿募资额。</p><p>从筹码上分析，公配超购230倍的这种大票，额度不大可能全部是散户打上来的，打新“老司机”猜测有机构因为国配拿不到货，选择从公配拿货。</p><p>从估值上来说，华润饮料如果按23年算是22PE，跟目前的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">农夫山泉</a>差不多；但基本面来看，与农夫山泉有差距，未来面临的挑战并不小：</p><p><strong>年营收135亿元 “怡宝”收入增速下降</strong></p><p>根据灼识咨询报告，华润饮料是中国最早专业化生产包装饮用水的企业之一。已成长为中国第二大包装饮用水企业以及中国最大的饮用纯净水企业(按2023年零售额计)。根据灼识咨询报告，公司的“怡宝”品牌饮用纯净水产品于2023年的零售额达到了人民币395亿元，是中国饮用纯净水市场的第一品牌。</p><p>凭借“怡宝”这个单一品牌，华润饮料以18.4%的市场份额位列中国包装饮用水市场第二名，仅次于农夫山泉，同时还成为我国最大的饮用纯净水企业，市场份额约占32.7%。</p><p>以“怡宝”品牌为中枢，通过不断丰富产品矩阵、拓展产品规格，目前华润饮料已经发展成为一个覆盖外出、居家、商务、 餐饮、运动等多种消费场景的龙头即饮软饮企业。</p><p>据招股书披露，目前华润饮料主要拥有怡宝、至本清润、蜜水系列、假日系列及佐味茶事等13个品牌的产品组合、共计56个SKU。于2023年，按零售额计，公司在中国即饮软饮企业中排名第五，市场份额约为4.7%。</p><p>业绩表现来看，2021年至2024年前4个月（以下简称：报告期内）华润饮料实现收入分别约为113.40亿元（单位：人民币，下同）、126.23亿元、135.15亿元、及41.50亿元；年内利润分别约为8.58亿元、9.89亿元、13.31亿元及4.47亿元。营收与净利润均呈现增长状态。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9659b0527a464129fa0ec28d1c9d27d5\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"478\"/></p><p>分产品来看，华润饮料以怡宝为核心品牌，进行包装饮用水产品的生产与销售。报告期内，怡宝包装饮用水产品产生的收入分别为107.97亿元、118.87亿元、124.05亿元及36.92亿元，占同期包装饮用水产品总收入的99.8%、99.8%、99.7%及99.2%。</p><p>根据智通财经APP了解，尽管已成为行业龙头，但华润饮料的压力仍存。</p><p>首先，是整个纯净水已经卷到天花板，市场难以讲好新故事。海通国际研报表示，纯净水为壁垒低，高度竞争的行业，同时单瓶利润薄、需要高周转，比拼企业的综合能力。包装水龙头经过多次变迁后，已进入中低速增长阶段，行业未来增长中数维持在3%-4%之间。这就注定了瓶装“水战”从来都是异常惨烈。招股书显示，怡宝近两年的收入增速呈现下降态势，2022年、2023年，其包装饮用水产品增速由10.06%降到了4.54%。</p><p>此外，怡宝的纯净水选择了“自有工厂+代加工”的模式，使得华润饮料的利润率与农夫山泉相比明显偏低。2021-2023年，华润饮料毛利率分别为43.8%、41.7%及44.7%。而农夫山泉都是自有工厂生产，毋须支付代工服务费，因此可以更好的控制利润率。农夫山泉公布的2023年业绩显示，其总营收和净利润分别为426.7亿元、120.8亿元。对比之下，营收是华润饮料的三倍之多，利润更是其九倍之多，毛利率也持续稳定在60%左右。</p><p><strong>除了“怡宝”，凭何增长？</strong></p><p>正如上文所言，包装饮用水行业仍处于增长状态，但竞争十分激烈。根据灼识咨询报告，按零售额计，2023年中国包装饮用水市场规模为人民币 2,150亿元，2018年至2023年的复合年增长率为7.1%，预计到2028年将达到人民币 3,143亿元，2023年至2028年的复合年增长率为7.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e54d081481d4209f442eb9ed50960b\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p>正如“水大鱼多”的发展规律一样，这条千亿级的赛道也充满了较大的竞争压力。</p><p>在风险提示中，华润饮料亦坦言表示：“公司身处中国的即饮软饮行业，现在并将持续保持高度竞争。公司面临 来自现有竞争对手及新行业进入者的激烈竞争。部分竞争对手已在多个品类建 立了市场地位，并拥有更多的财务、研发、营销及其他资源。公司亦与一些较小的品牌竞争，其可能更具创新性，能够更好地将新产品推向市场，并更有效、更迅速地进入和服务利基市场。”</p><p>不过，就目前来看，华润饮料的营收支柱仍是纯净水业务，饮料产品营收占比不到一成。</p><p>事实上，饮料市场竞争激烈，消费者口味挑剔，不仅有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>、康师傅及统一等老牌巨头，近年崛起的元气森林以及喜茶、霸王茶姬等网红即饮类品牌都在分流市场。虽然华润饮料援引灼识咨询报告，以2023年零售额计，其在中国菊花茶饮料市场排名第一，以及在风味水市场排名第二。但实际观察来看，华润饮料旗下饮料产品在市场上的影响力相当有限，市场知名度也不显，表现在收入上，也没有取得很好成绩。</p><p>多品类战略下，也就意味着公司将有大笔的现金流出——截至2024年4月30日止，华润饮料年末现金及现金等价物为21.90亿元，流动资产为56.50亿元，流动负债为53.08亿元，流动资产尚能覆盖流动负债，短期偿债压力正在显著增加。鉴于此，亟需扩充品类的华润饮料也不得不选择赴港“补血”。</p><p>更为重要的是，华润饮料此时谋划上市的真正意义和诉求，是期望资本对资源的整合和带动。比如对电商渠道的开拓和品类多元化的进一步发力。事实上，华润饮料的对标不仅有农夫山泉，靠酱油起家的海天、以冰箱起家的海尔，都是依靠单一产品打下知名度，上市后通过多元化的加速发展成长为消费巨头。华润饮料的野心，也正是如此。</p><p>综上，凭借“怡宝”品牌，华润饮料成长为国内包装饮用水市场龙头，营收与利润稳健增长。但随着纯净水市场增速放缓，公司仍需多品类夯实增长根基。不过，就目前来看，饮料水业务尚未起势，成为华润饮料成长的隐忧。</p></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n超购236倍！华润饮料晋级“冻资王”！上限定价有没有底气？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-21 10:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202410182025209f4d6f29&s=b><strong>智通财经APP</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>港股打新市场火爆，瓶装水“怡宝”生产商华润饮料(02460)受追捧，刷新今年“冻资”纪录。截止周五(18日)中午认购结束，市传其公开发售部分已超购236倍，冻资金额逾1,323.9亿港元，超过本月初的上市的厨具品牌卡罗特(02549）的1010.5亿，成为今年新股“冻资王”。由于市场需求强劲，仅经香港本地券商辉立证券一家，累计申请认购总额近700亿元，约120倍。华润饮料以每股招股价介乎13.5至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202410182025209f4d6f29&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d705fea881c5a524d0ba459248e15000","relate_stocks":{"02460":"华润饮料"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202410182025209f4d6f29&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2476323632","content_text":"港股打新市场火爆，瓶装水“怡宝”生产商华润饮料(02460)受追捧，刷新今年“冻资”纪录。截止周五(18日)中午认购结束，市传其公开发售部分已超购236倍，冻资金额逾1,323.9亿港元，超过本月初的上市的厨具品牌卡罗特(02549）的1010.5亿，成为今年新股“冻资王”。由于市场需求强劲，仅经香港本地券商辉立证券一家，累计申请认购总额近700亿元，约120倍。华润饮料以每股招股价介乎13.5至14.5元，发行约3.47亿股，集资最多约50.43亿元，为今年第二大新股。每手200股，入场费2,929.24元，预期下周三(23日)挂牌。瑞银、中银国际、中信证券及美银证券为联席保荐人。IFR引述知情人士称，由于当下港股市场打新投资者对于定价并不敏感，发行人有望把价格定在招股价范围的最高位的14.5港元。华润是9月25号过的聆讯，招股期本来定的10月初，最终延后了一周多，有未经证实的小道市场消息称，其中之一原因是定价没定好，询价时行情好，想募资80亿，结果众多机构不买账，最后定了50亿募资额。从筹码上分析，公配超购230倍的这种大票，额度不大可能全部是散户打上来的，打新“老司机”猜测有机构因为国配拿不到货，选择从公配拿货。从估值上来说，华润饮料如果按23年算是22PE，跟目前的农夫山泉差不多；但基本面来看，与农夫山泉有差距，未来面临的挑战并不小：年营收135亿元 “怡宝”收入增速下降根据灼识咨询报告，华润饮料是中国最早专业化生产包装饮用水的企业之一。已成长为中国第二大包装饮用水企业以及中国最大的饮用纯净水企业(按2023年零售额计)。根据灼识咨询报告，公司的“怡宝”品牌饮用纯净水产品于2023年的零售额达到了人民币395亿元，是中国饮用纯净水市场的第一品牌。凭借“怡宝”这个单一品牌，华润饮料以18.4%的市场份额位列中国包装饮用水市场第二名，仅次于农夫山泉，同时还成为我国最大的饮用纯净水企业，市场份额约占32.7%。以“怡宝”品牌为中枢，通过不断丰富产品矩阵、拓展产品规格，目前华润饮料已经发展成为一个覆盖外出、居家、商务、 餐饮、运动等多种消费场景的龙头即饮软饮企业。据招股书披露，目前华润饮料主要拥有怡宝、至本清润、蜜水系列、假日系列及佐味茶事等13个品牌的产品组合、共计56个SKU。于2023年，按零售额计，公司在中国即饮软饮企业中排名第五，市场份额约为4.7%。业绩表现来看，2021年至2024年前4个月（以下简称：报告期内）华润饮料实现收入分别约为113.40亿元（单位：人民币，下同）、126.23亿元、135.15亿元、及41.50亿元；年内利润分别约为8.58亿元、9.89亿元、13.31亿元及4.47亿元。营收与净利润均呈现增长状态。分产品来看，华润饮料以怡宝为核心品牌，进行包装饮用水产品的生产与销售。报告期内，怡宝包装饮用水产品产生的收入分别为107.97亿元、118.87亿元、124.05亿元及36.92亿元，占同期包装饮用水产品总收入的99.8%、99.8%、99.7%及99.2%。根据智通财经APP了解，尽管已成为行业龙头，但华润饮料的压力仍存。首先，是整个纯净水已经卷到天花板，市场难以讲好新故事。海通国际研报表示，纯净水为壁垒低，高度竞争的行业，同时单瓶利润薄、需要高周转，比拼企业的综合能力。包装水龙头经过多次变迁后，已进入中低速增长阶段，行业未来增长中数维持在3%-4%之间。这就注定了瓶装“水战”从来都是异常惨烈。招股书显示，怡宝近两年的收入增速呈现下降态势，2022年、2023年，其包装饮用水产品增速由10.06%降到了4.54%。此外，怡宝的纯净水选择了“自有工厂+代加工”的模式，使得华润饮料的利润率与农夫山泉相比明显偏低。2021-2023年，华润饮料毛利率分别为43.8%、41.7%及44.7%。而农夫山泉都是自有工厂生产，毋须支付代工服务费，因此可以更好的控制利润率。农夫山泉公布的2023年业绩显示，其总营收和净利润分别为426.7亿元、120.8亿元。对比之下，营收是华润饮料的三倍之多，利润更是其九倍之多，毛利率也持续稳定在60%左右。除了“怡宝”，凭何增长？正如上文所言，包装饮用水行业仍处于增长状态，但竞争十分激烈。根据灼识咨询报告，按零售额计，2023年中国包装饮用水市场规模为人民币 2,150亿元，2018年至2023年的复合年增长率为7.1%，预计到2028年将达到人民币 3,143亿元，2023年至2028年的复合年增长率为7.9%。正如“水大鱼多”的发展规律一样，这条千亿级的赛道也充满了较大的竞争压力。在风险提示中，华润饮料亦坦言表示：“公司身处中国的即饮软饮行业，现在并将持续保持高度竞争。公司面临 来自现有竞争对手及新行业进入者的激烈竞争。部分竞争对手已在多个品类建 立了市场地位，并拥有更多的财务、研发、营销及其他资源。公司亦与一些较小的品牌竞争，其可能更具创新性，能够更好地将新产品推向市场，并更有效、更迅速地进入和服务利基市场。”不过，就目前来看，华润饮料的营收支柱仍是纯净水业务，饮料产品营收占比不到一成。事实上，饮料市场竞争激烈，消费者口味挑剔，不仅有可口可乐、康师傅及统一等老牌巨头，近年崛起的元气森林以及喜茶、霸王茶姬等网红即饮类品牌都在分流市场。虽然华润饮料援引灼识咨询报告，以2023年零售额计，其在中国菊花茶饮料市场排名第一，以及在风味水市场排名第二。但实际观察来看，华润饮料旗下饮料产品在市场上的影响力相当有限，市场知名度也不显，表现在收入上，也没有取得很好成绩。多品类战略下，也就意味着公司将有大笔的现金流出——截至2024年4月30日止，华润饮料年末现金及现金等价物为21.90亿元，流动资产为56.50亿元，流动负债为53.08亿元，流动资产尚能覆盖流动负债，短期偿债压力正在显著增加。鉴于此，亟需扩充品类的华润饮料也不得不选择赴港“补血”。更为重要的是，华润饮料此时谋划上市的真正意义和诉求，是期望资本对资源的整合和带动。比如对电商渠道的开拓和品类多元化的进一步发力。事实上，华润饮料的对标不仅有农夫山泉，靠酱油起家的海天、以冰箱起家的海尔，都是依靠单一产品打下知名度，上市后通过多元化的加速发展成长为消费巨头。华润饮料的野心，也正是如此。综上，凭借“怡宝”品牌，华润饮料成长为国内包装饮用水市场龙头，营收与利润稳健增长。但随着纯净水市场增速放缓，公司仍需多品类夯实增长根基。不过，就目前来看，饮料水业务尚未起势，成为华润饮料成长的隐忧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355494030098664,"gmtCreate":1727800001464,"gmtModify":1727800003098,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[流泪]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348240613683392,"gmtCreate":1726025713928,"gmtModify":1726027618080,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个时候推荐农业银行，这不怕人骂呐？","listText":"这个时候推荐农业银行，这不怕人骂呐？","text":"这个时候推荐农业银行，这不怕人骂呐？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348240613683392","repostId":"2466502174","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2466502174","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"证券之星始创于1996年，是国内领先的金融信息及综合服务平台。关注证券之星，即时获取有价值的财经资讯。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"证券之星","id":"1082532455","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f"},"pubTimestamp":1725942355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2466502174?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-10 12:25","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"华安证券：给予农业银行买入评级","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2466502174","media":"证券之星","summary":"华安证券股份有限公司郑小霞,刘锦慧近期对农业银行进行研究并发布了研究报告《三农好风凭借力，扎根县域入青云》，本报告对农业银行给出买入评级，当前股价为4.63元。截至2024年二季度末，农业银行资产规模达42万亿元，以一级资本计位列全球银行第三位，连续十年被纳入全球系统重要性银行名单。2024 年 9 月 9 日收盘价为 4.52 元， 对应 2024 年 0.61xPB，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。","content":"<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">华安证券</a>股份有限公司郑小霞,刘锦慧近期对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601288\">农业银行</a>进行研究并发布了研究报告《三农好风凭借力，扎根县域入青云》，本报告对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01288\">农业银行</a>给出买入评级，当前股价为4.63元。</p><p>　　农业银行(601288)　　主要观点：　　深耕三农的国有大行和全球系统重要性银行　　农业银行是新中国建立的第一家国家专业银行，由农业合作银行起家，在国有大行中突出深耕乡村振兴和服务实体经济特色。股权结构高度集中且稳定，国家持股比例高达82.2%。截至2024年二季度末，农业银行资产规模达42万亿元，以一级资本计位列全球银行第三位，连续十年被纳入全球系统重要性银行名单。　　农业银行中西部地区布局最为广泛，机构设置凸显三农特色　　农业银行网点数量在国有大行中居前，中西部地区网点领先同业。从地区分布看，农业银行网点布局更集中于中西部地区，中西部网点合计占比为52.47%居四大国有行之首。机构设置充分体现三农基因，运行机制独具特色。农业银行自2008年起全面推动全行三农金融事业部制改革，总分支行层面设置专门机构强化县域金融经营能力，形成一整套有别于城市业务的管理体系。　　县域经济基数低、增速高，深耕县域的银行有望受益于城乡融合加速发展　　城镇化率增速放缓、农村地区基础客群质量不断升级，为银行展业提供增量。2023年农村居民人均可支配收入、人均消费支出分别同比增长7.8%、9.3%，增速高于城镇居民人均可支配收入、人均消费支出同比增速。中西部部分省份焕发生机，涉农贷款投放保持高景气。“西部大开发”、“成渝经济圈”“中部崛起”等建设带动中西部地区部分省份经济基本面改善。产业发展迅速、地区吸引力增加，带动金融需求高景气。中部地区的安徽省和西部地区的四川省2024年上半年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>贷款规模同比增速分别为12.59%、11.75%，较全国贷款规模增速分别高出4.28pcts、3.44pcts。2022年一季度末起，金融机构涉农贷款余额同比增速高于各项贷款同比增速并延续增速差，中西部地区网点占比更高的农业银行未来有望更加受益于城乡融合的机遇快速发展。　　相比国有大行同业，农业银行还具备量、价、风险三重竞争优势（1）量：规模扩张居于国有行之首，三农普惠、绿色金融、制造业是主要抓手。1Q24农业银行总资产、贷款、投资规模同比增速分别为14.5%、12.9%、28.1%，均居于六大国有行之首，规模扩张成效显著，高速扩表有效带动营业收入增长，对利润增长形成支撑。（2）价：农业银行负债结构以个人为主，具备低成本存款优势。从存款成本率看，2023年农业银行个人存款利率为1.68%，在国有行中相对较低，仅高于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601658\">邮储银行</a>。客群基础良好，活期存款来源广泛，2023年末个人活期存款占比全部存款达23.4%，在国有行中居首。农业银行个人存款利率低于对公存款利率，且个人存款占比较高，共同贡献低成本存款优势。（3）风险：资产质量稳中向好，县域金融不良率低于全行平均不良率。1H24农行不良率较1Q24下降1bp至1.32%，持平历史最低水平，资产质量保持稳健。 2020 年后，县域地区贷款不良率改善幅度好于全行各项贷款， 2023 年末县域贷款不良率仅 1.24%，低于全行贷款不良率 1.33%。 拨备安全垫不断夯实，风险抵补能力较强。 2024 年二季度末农业银行拨贷比为 4%，较 1Q24 下降 5bps，位列国有行第一；拨备覆盖率维持 303.94%水平，位列国有行第二， 风险抵补能力保持同业领先。　　投资建议　　城镇化进程放缓下，县域经济基数低、增速高，深耕县域的银行在客群、规模等方面有望受益于城乡融合加速发展。近三年来中部地区的安徽省和西部地区的四川省与全国平均贷款增速差逐渐扩大，产业发展迅速、地区吸引力增加， 带动金融需求高景气。农业银行深耕三农金融、中西部地区， 网点数量在国有四大行中居前，中西部地区网点占比领先同业，网均产能 5 年增长近一倍。 规模增长领先国有大行同业，负债端具备低成本优势， 资产质量指标稳中向好，不良率、关注率、逾期率均不断改善。县域贷款不良率改善幅度、绝对值均好于全行贷款不良率。 资负两端结构调优带动营收、利润稳健增长。 由此，我们预测公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别同比增长 1.4%/-0.98%/1.39%，归母净利润分别同比增长 1.53%/-2.62%/0.33%。 根据以上分析采用 DDM 绝对估值法， 农业银行隐含合理估值为 0.75xPB。2024 年 9 月 9 日收盘价为 4.52 元， 对应 2024 年 0.61xPB，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。　　风险提示　　利率风险：市场利率继续下行，优质客群竞争加剧，资产端收益率持续走低，息差收窄。　　经营风险：经济复苏不及预期，融资需求下降拖累信贷增速。信贷增速不及预期。　　市场风险：宏观经济大幅下行，小微、三农风险集中抬升，资产质量大幅恶化。</p><p>证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>肖斐斐研究员团队对该股研究较为深入，近三年预测准确度均值高达92.34%，其预测2024年度归属净利润为盈利2748.54亿，根据现价换算的预测PE为6.11。</p><p>最新盈利预测明细如下：</p><p><img src=\"http://static.stockstar.com/cmsrobo/stk_res_predict_sh601288_2024_2000-01-01_20_1725942351.png\"/></p><p>该股最近90天内共有10家机构给出评级，买入评级6家，增持评级4家；过去90天内机构目标均价为5.43。</p><p>以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由智能算法生成，不构成投资建议。</p></body></html>","source":"stockstar","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华安证券：给予农业银行买入评级</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华安证券：给予农业银行买入评级\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1082532455\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">证券之星 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-10 12:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600909\">华安证券</a>股份有限公司郑小霞,刘锦慧近期对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601288\">农业银行</a>进行研究并发布了研究报告《三农好风凭借力，扎根县域入青云》，本报告对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01288\">农业银行</a>给出买入评级，当前股价为4.63元。</p><p>　　农业银行(601288)　　主要观点：　　深耕三农的国有大行和全球系统重要性银行　　农业银行是新中国建立的第一家国家专业银行，由农业合作银行起家，在国有大行中突出深耕乡村振兴和服务实体经济特色。股权结构高度集中且稳定，国家持股比例高达82.2%。截至2024年二季度末，农业银行资产规模达42万亿元，以一级资本计位列全球银行第三位，连续十年被纳入全球系统重要性银行名单。　　农业银行中西部地区布局最为广泛，机构设置凸显三农特色　　农业银行网点数量在国有大行中居前，中西部地区网点领先同业。从地区分布看，农业银行网点布局更集中于中西部地区，中西部网点合计占比为52.47%居四大国有行之首。机构设置充分体现三农基因，运行机制独具特色。农业银行自2008年起全面推动全行三农金融事业部制改革，总分支行层面设置专门机构强化县域金融经营能力，形成一整套有别于城市业务的管理体系。　　县域经济基数低、增速高，深耕县域的银行有望受益于城乡融合加速发展　　城镇化率增速放缓、农村地区基础客群质量不断升级，为银行展业提供增量。2023年农村居民人均可支配收入、人均消费支出分别同比增长7.8%、9.3%，增速高于城镇居民人均可支配收入、人均消费支出同比增速。中西部部分省份焕发生机，涉农贷款投放保持高景气。“西部大开发”、“成渝经济圈”“中部崛起”等建设带动中西部地区部分省份经济基本面改善。产业发展迅速、地区吸引力增加，带动金融需求高景气。中部地区的安徽省和西部地区的四川省2024年上半年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>贷款规模同比增速分别为12.59%、11.75%，较全国贷款规模增速分别高出4.28pcts、3.44pcts。2022年一季度末起，金融机构涉农贷款余额同比增速高于各项贷款同比增速并延续增速差，中西部地区网点占比更高的农业银行未来有望更加受益于城乡融合的机遇快速发展。　　相比国有大行同业，农业银行还具备量、价、风险三重竞争优势（1）量：规模扩张居于国有行之首，三农普惠、绿色金融、制造业是主要抓手。1Q24农业银行总资产、贷款、投资规模同比增速分别为14.5%、12.9%、28.1%，均居于六大国有行之首，规模扩张成效显著，高速扩表有效带动营业收入增长，对利润增长形成支撑。（2）价：农业银行负债结构以个人为主，具备低成本存款优势。从存款成本率看，2023年农业银行个人存款利率为1.68%，在国有行中相对较低，仅高于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601658\">邮储银行</a>。客群基础良好，活期存款来源广泛，2023年末个人活期存款占比全部存款达23.4%，在国有行中居首。农业银行个人存款利率低于对公存款利率，且个人存款占比较高，共同贡献低成本存款优势。（3）风险：资产质量稳中向好，县域金融不良率低于全行平均不良率。1H24农行不良率较1Q24下降1bp至1.32%，持平历史最低水平，资产质量保持稳健。 2020 年后，县域地区贷款不良率改善幅度好于全行各项贷款， 2023 年末县域贷款不良率仅 1.24%，低于全行贷款不良率 1.33%。 拨备安全垫不断夯实，风险抵补能力较强。 2024 年二季度末农业银行拨贷比为 4%，较 1Q24 下降 5bps，位列国有行第一；拨备覆盖率维持 303.94%水平，位列国有行第二， 风险抵补能力保持同业领先。　　投资建议　　城镇化进程放缓下，县域经济基数低、增速高，深耕县域的银行在客群、规模等方面有望受益于城乡融合加速发展。近三年来中部地区的安徽省和西部地区的四川省与全国平均贷款增速差逐渐扩大，产业发展迅速、地区吸引力增加， 带动金融需求高景气。农业银行深耕三农金融、中西部地区， 网点数量在国有四大行中居前，中西部地区网点占比领先同业，网均产能 5 年增长近一倍。 规模增长领先国有大行同业，负债端具备低成本优势， 资产质量指标稳中向好，不良率、关注率、逾期率均不断改善。县域贷款不良率改善幅度、绝对值均好于全行贷款不良率。 资负两端结构调优带动营收、利润稳健增长。 由此，我们预测公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别同比增长 1.4%/-0.98%/1.39%，归母净利润分别同比增长 1.53%/-2.62%/0.33%。 根据以上分析采用 DDM 绝对估值法， 农业银行隐含合理估值为 0.75xPB。2024 年 9 月 9 日收盘价为 4.52 元， 对应 2024 年 0.61xPB，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。　　风险提示　　利率风险：市场利率继续下行，优质客群竞争加剧，资产端收益率持续走低，息差收窄。　　经营风险：经济复苏不及预期，融资需求下降拖累信贷增速。信贷增速不及预期。　　市场风险：宏观经济大幅下行，小微、三农风险集中抬升，资产质量大幅恶化。</p><p>证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>肖斐斐研究员团队对该股研究较为深入，近三年预测准确度均值高达92.34%，其预测2024年度归属净利润为盈利2748.54亿，根据现价换算的预测PE为6.11。</p><p>最新盈利预测明细如下：</p><p><img src=\"http://static.stockstar.com/cmsrobo/stk_res_predict_sh601288_2024_2000-01-01_20_1725942351.png\"/></p><p>该股最近90天内共有10家机构给出评级，买入评级6家，增持评级4家；过去90天内机构目标均价为5.43。</p><p>以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由智能算法生成，不构成投资建议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"600909":"华安证券","601288":"农业银行","01288":"农业银行"},"source_url":"https://stock.stockstar.com/RB2024091000016412.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2466502174","content_text":"华安证券股份有限公司郑小霞,刘锦慧近期对农业银行进行研究并发布了研究报告《三农好风凭借力，扎根县域入青云》，本报告对农业银行给出买入评级，当前股价为4.63元。　　农业银行(601288)　　主要观点：　　深耕三农的国有大行和全球系统重要性银行　　农业银行是新中国建立的第一家国家专业银行，由农业合作银行起家，在国有大行中突出深耕乡村振兴和服务实体经济特色。股权结构高度集中且稳定，国家持股比例高达82.2%。截至2024年二季度末，农业银行资产规模达42万亿元，以一级资本计位列全球银行第三位，连续十年被纳入全球系统重要性银行名单。　　农业银行中西部地区布局最为广泛，机构设置凸显三农特色　　农业银行网点数量在国有大行中居前，中西部地区网点领先同业。从地区分布看，农业银行网点布局更集中于中西部地区，中西部网点合计占比为52.47%居四大国有行之首。机构设置充分体现三农基因，运行机制独具特色。农业银行自2008年起全面推动全行三农金融事业部制改革，总分支行层面设置专门机构强化县域金融经营能力，形成一整套有别于城市业务的管理体系。　　县域经济基数低、增速高，深耕县域的银行有望受益于城乡融合加速发展　　城镇化率增速放缓、农村地区基础客群质量不断升级，为银行展业提供增量。2023年农村居民人均可支配收入、人均消费支出分别同比增长7.8%、9.3%，增速高于城镇居民人均可支配收入、人均消费支出同比增速。中西部部分省份焕发生机，涉农贷款投放保持高景气。“西部大开发”、“成渝经济圈”“中部崛起”等建设带动中西部地区部分省份经济基本面改善。产业发展迅速、地区吸引力增加，带动金融需求高景气。中部地区的安徽省和西部地区的四川省2024年上半年金融机构贷款规模同比增速分别为12.59%、11.75%，较全国贷款规模增速分别高出4.28pcts、3.44pcts。2022年一季度末起，金融机构涉农贷款余额同比增速高于各项贷款同比增速并延续增速差，中西部地区网点占比更高的农业银行未来有望更加受益于城乡融合的机遇快速发展。　　相比国有大行同业，农业银行还具备量、价、风险三重竞争优势（1）量：规模扩张居于国有行之首，三农普惠、绿色金融、制造业是主要抓手。1Q24农业银行总资产、贷款、投资规模同比增速分别为14.5%、12.9%、28.1%，均居于六大国有行之首，规模扩张成效显著，高速扩表有效带动营业收入增长，对利润增长形成支撑。（2）价：农业银行负债结构以个人为主，具备低成本存款优势。从存款成本率看，2023年农业银行个人存款利率为1.68%，在国有行中相对较低，仅高于邮储银行。客群基础良好，活期存款来源广泛，2023年末个人活期存款占比全部存款达23.4%，在国有行中居首。农业银行个人存款利率低于对公存款利率，且个人存款占比较高，共同贡献低成本存款优势。（3）风险：资产质量稳中向好，县域金融不良率低于全行平均不良率。1H24农行不良率较1Q24下降1bp至1.32%，持平历史最低水平，资产质量保持稳健。 2020 年后，县域地区贷款不良率改善幅度好于全行各项贷款， 2023 年末县域贷款不良率仅 1.24%，低于全行贷款不良率 1.33%。 拨备安全垫不断夯实，风险抵补能力较强。 2024 年二季度末农业银行拨贷比为 4%，较 1Q24 下降 5bps，位列国有行第一；拨备覆盖率维持 303.94%水平，位列国有行第二， 风险抵补能力保持同业领先。　　投资建议　　城镇化进程放缓下，县域经济基数低、增速高，深耕县域的银行在客群、规模等方面有望受益于城乡融合加速发展。近三年来中部地区的安徽省和西部地区的四川省与全国平均贷款增速差逐渐扩大，产业发展迅速、地区吸引力增加， 带动金融需求高景气。农业银行深耕三农金融、中西部地区， 网点数量在国有四大行中居前，中西部地区网点占比领先同业，网均产能 5 年增长近一倍。 规模增长领先国有大行同业，负债端具备低成本优势， 资产质量指标稳中向好，不良率、关注率、逾期率均不断改善。县域贷款不良率改善幅度、绝对值均好于全行贷款不良率。 资负两端结构调优带动营收、利润稳健增长。 由此，我们预测公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别同比增长 1.4%/-0.98%/1.39%，归母净利润分别同比增长 1.53%/-2.62%/0.33%。 根据以上分析采用 DDM 绝对估值法， 农业银行隐含合理估值为 0.75xPB。2024 年 9 月 9 日收盘价为 4.52 元， 对应 2024 年 0.61xPB，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。　　风险提示　　利率风险：市场利率继续下行，优质客群竞争加剧，资产端收益率持续走低，息差收窄。　　经营风险：经济复苏不及预期，融资需求下降拖累信贷增速。信贷增速不及预期。　　市场风险：宏观经济大幅下行，小微、三农风险集中抬升，资产质量大幅恶化。证券之星数据中心根据近三年发布的研报数据计算，中信证券肖斐斐研究员团队对该股研究较为深入，近三年预测准确度均值高达92.34%，其预测2024年度归属净利润为盈利2748.54亿，根据现价换算的预测PE为6.11。最新盈利预测明细如下：该股最近90天内共有10家机构给出评级，买入评级6家，增持评级4家；过去90天内机构目标均价为5.43。以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由智能算法生成，不构成投资建议。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343334628897064,"gmtCreate":1724851112375,"gmtModify":1724851114689,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YXT\">$云学堂(YXT)$ </a> 我这股还有救吗？[笑哭]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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这个签中的，一言难尽啊，醒来一看成这样了，[流泪]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63b5384246001b41ed1ae89c041f52f9","width":"978","height":"1877"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339358611153240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3528806047540247","authorId":"3528806047540247","name":"parko522","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a854f45bbb08ca8279018f2abd565f6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3528806047540247","authorIdStr":"3528806047540247"},"content":"我割肉了，亏46刀","text":"我割肉了，亏46刀","html":"我割肉了，亏46刀"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339041133502560,"gmtCreate":1723814469251,"gmtModify":1723814474164,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying 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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362834726674568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362398338965568,"gmtCreate":1729505521697,"gmtModify":1729505680559,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a>中了一手， 完犊子了，看了你的文章，这不废了吗！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">$华润饮料(02460)$ </a>中了一手， 完犊子了，看了你的文章，这不废了吗！","text":"$华润饮料(02460)$ 中了一手， 完犊子了，看了你的文章，这不废了吗！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362398338965568","repostId":"2476323632","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2476323632","pubTimestamp":1729479048,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2476323632?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-21 10:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"超购236倍！华润饮料晋级“冻资王”！上限定价有没有底气？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2476323632","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"港股打新市场火爆，瓶装水“怡宝”生产商华润饮料受追捧，刷新今年“冻资”纪录。分产品来看，华润饮料以怡宝为核心品牌，进行包装饮用水产品的生产与销售。但实际观察来看，华润饮料旗下饮料产品在市场上的影响力相当有限，市场知名度也不显，表现在收入上，也没有取得很好成绩。鉴于此，亟需扩充品类的华润饮料也不得不选择赴港“补血”。不过，就目前来看，饮料水业务尚未起势，成为华润饮料成长的隐忧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d705fea881c5a524d0ba459248e15000\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"275\"/></p><p>港股打新市场火爆，瓶装水“怡宝”生产商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02460\">华润饮料</a>(02460)受追捧，刷新今年“冻资”纪录。</p><p>截止周五(18日)中午认购结束，市传其公开发售部分已超购236倍，冻资金额逾1,323.9亿港元，超过本月初的上市的厨具品牌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02549\">卡罗特</a>(02549）的1010.5亿，成为今年新股“冻资王”。由于市场需求强劲，仅经香港本地券商辉立证券一家，累计申请认购总额近700亿元，约120倍。</p><p>华润饮料以每股招股价介乎13.5至14.5元，发行约3.47亿股，集资最多约50.43亿元，为今年第二大新股。每手200股，入场费2,929.24元，预期下周三(23日)挂牌。瑞银、中银国际、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>及美银证券为联席保荐人。</p><p>IFR引述知情人士称，由于当下港股市场打新投资者对于定价并不敏感，发行人有望把价格定在招股价范围的最高位的14.5港元。</p><p>华润是9月25号过的聆讯，招股期本来定的10月初，最终延后了一周多，有未经证实的小道市场消息称，其中之一原因是定价没定好，询价时行情好，想募资80亿，结果众多机构不买账，最后定了50亿募资额。</p><p>从筹码上分析，公配超购230倍的这种大票，额度不大可能全部是散户打上来的，打新“老司机”猜测有机构因为国配拿不到货，选择从公配拿货。</p><p>从估值上来说，华润饮料如果按23年算是22PE，跟目前的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">农夫山泉</a>差不多；但基本面来看，与农夫山泉有差距，未来面临的挑战并不小：</p><p><strong>年营收135亿元 “怡宝”收入增速下降</strong></p><p>根据灼识咨询报告，华润饮料是中国最早专业化生产包装饮用水的企业之一。已成长为中国第二大包装饮用水企业以及中国最大的饮用纯净水企业(按2023年零售额计)。根据灼识咨询报告，公司的“怡宝”品牌饮用纯净水产品于2023年的零售额达到了人民币395亿元，是中国饮用纯净水市场的第一品牌。</p><p>凭借“怡宝”这个单一品牌，华润饮料以18.4%的市场份额位列中国包装饮用水市场第二名，仅次于农夫山泉，同时还成为我国最大的饮用纯净水企业，市场份额约占32.7%。</p><p>以“怡宝”品牌为中枢，通过不断丰富产品矩阵、拓展产品规格，目前华润饮料已经发展成为一个覆盖外出、居家、商务、 餐饮、运动等多种消费场景的龙头即饮软饮企业。</p><p>据招股书披露，目前华润饮料主要拥有怡宝、至本清润、蜜水系列、假日系列及佐味茶事等13个品牌的产品组合、共计56个SKU。于2023年，按零售额计，公司在中国即饮软饮企业中排名第五，市场份额约为4.7%。</p><p>业绩表现来看，2021年至2024年前4个月（以下简称：报告期内）华润饮料实现收入分别约为113.40亿元（单位：人民币，下同）、126.23亿元、135.15亿元、及41.50亿元；年内利润分别约为8.58亿元、9.89亿元、13.31亿元及4.47亿元。营收与净利润均呈现增长状态。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9659b0527a464129fa0ec28d1c9d27d5\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"478\"/></p><p>分产品来看，华润饮料以怡宝为核心品牌，进行包装饮用水产品的生产与销售。报告期内，怡宝包装饮用水产品产生的收入分别为107.97亿元、118.87亿元、124.05亿元及36.92亿元，占同期包装饮用水产品总收入的99.8%、99.8%、99.7%及99.2%。</p><p>根据智通财经APP了解，尽管已成为行业龙头，但华润饮料的压力仍存。</p><p>首先，是整个纯净水已经卷到天花板，市场难以讲好新故事。海通国际研报表示，纯净水为壁垒低，高度竞争的行业，同时单瓶利润薄、需要高周转，比拼企业的综合能力。包装水龙头经过多次变迁后，已进入中低速增长阶段，行业未来增长中数维持在3%-4%之间。这就注定了瓶装“水战”从来都是异常惨烈。招股书显示，怡宝近两年的收入增速呈现下降态势，2022年、2023年，其包装饮用水产品增速由10.06%降到了4.54%。</p><p>此外，怡宝的纯净水选择了“自有工厂+代加工”的模式，使得华润饮料的利润率与农夫山泉相比明显偏低。2021-2023年，华润饮料毛利率分别为43.8%、41.7%及44.7%。而农夫山泉都是自有工厂生产，毋须支付代工服务费，因此可以更好的控制利润率。农夫山泉公布的2023年业绩显示，其总营收和净利润分别为426.7亿元、120.8亿元。对比之下，营收是华润饮料的三倍之多，利润更是其九倍之多，毛利率也持续稳定在60%左右。</p><p><strong>除了“怡宝”，凭何增长？</strong></p><p>正如上文所言，包装饮用水行业仍处于增长状态，但竞争十分激烈。根据灼识咨询报告，按零售额计，2023年中国包装饮用水市场规模为人民币 2,150亿元，2018年至2023年的复合年增长率为7.1%，预计到2028年将达到人民币 3,143亿元，2023年至2028年的复合年增长率为7.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e54d081481d4209f442eb9ed50960b\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p>正如“水大鱼多”的发展规律一样，这条千亿级的赛道也充满了较大的竞争压力。</p><p>在风险提示中，华润饮料亦坦言表示：“公司身处中国的即饮软饮行业，现在并将持续保持高度竞争。公司面临 来自现有竞争对手及新行业进入者的激烈竞争。部分竞争对手已在多个品类建 立了市场地位，并拥有更多的财务、研发、营销及其他资源。公司亦与一些较小的品牌竞争，其可能更具创新性，能够更好地将新产品推向市场，并更有效、更迅速地进入和服务利基市场。”</p><p>不过，就目前来看，华润饮料的营收支柱仍是纯净水业务，饮料产品营收占比不到一成。</p><p>事实上，饮料市场竞争激烈，消费者口味挑剔，不仅有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>、康师傅及统一等老牌巨头，近年崛起的元气森林以及喜茶、霸王茶姬等网红即饮类品牌都在分流市场。虽然华润饮料援引灼识咨询报告，以2023年零售额计，其在中国菊花茶饮料市场排名第一，以及在风味水市场排名第二。但实际观察来看，华润饮料旗下饮料产品在市场上的影响力相当有限，市场知名度也不显，表现在收入上，也没有取得很好成绩。</p><p>多品类战略下，也就意味着公司将有大笔的现金流出——截至2024年4月30日止，华润饮料年末现金及现金等价物为21.90亿元，流动资产为56.50亿元，流动负债为53.08亿元，流动资产尚能覆盖流动负债，短期偿债压力正在显著增加。鉴于此，亟需扩充品类的华润饮料也不得不选择赴港“补血”。</p><p>更为重要的是，华润饮料此时谋划上市的真正意义和诉求，是期望资本对资源的整合和带动。比如对电商渠道的开拓和品类多元化的进一步发力。事实上，华润饮料的对标不仅有农夫山泉，靠酱油起家的海天、以冰箱起家的海尔，都是依靠单一产品打下知名度，上市后通过多元化的加速发展成长为消费巨头。华润饮料的野心，也正是如此。</p><p>综上，凭借“怡宝”品牌，华润饮料成长为国内包装饮用水市场龙头，营收与利润稳健增长。但随着纯净水市场增速放缓，公司仍需多品类夯实增长根基。不过，就目前来看，饮料水业务尚未起势，成为华润饮料成长的隐忧。</p></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n超购236倍！华润饮料晋级“冻资王”！上限定价有没有底气？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-21 10:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202410182025209f4d6f29&s=b><strong>智通财经APP</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>港股打新市场火爆，瓶装水“怡宝”生产商华润饮料(02460)受追捧，刷新今年“冻资”纪录。截止周五(18日)中午认购结束，市传其公开发售部分已超购236倍，冻资金额逾1,323.9亿港元，超过本月初的上市的厨具品牌卡罗特(02549）的1010.5亿，成为今年新股“冻资王”。由于市场需求强劲，仅经香港本地券商辉立证券一家，累计申请认购总额近700亿元，约120倍。华润饮料以每股招股价介乎13.5至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202410182025209f4d6f29&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d705fea881c5a524d0ba459248e15000","relate_stocks":{"02460":"华润饮料"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202410182025209f4d6f29&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2476323632","content_text":"港股打新市场火爆，瓶装水“怡宝”生产商华润饮料(02460)受追捧，刷新今年“冻资”纪录。截止周五(18日)中午认购结束，市传其公开发售部分已超购236倍，冻资金额逾1,323.9亿港元，超过本月初的上市的厨具品牌卡罗特(02549）的1010.5亿，成为今年新股“冻资王”。由于市场需求强劲，仅经香港本地券商辉立证券一家，累计申请认购总额近700亿元，约120倍。华润饮料以每股招股价介乎13.5至14.5元，发行约3.47亿股，集资最多约50.43亿元，为今年第二大新股。每手200股，入场费2,929.24元，预期下周三(23日)挂牌。瑞银、中银国际、中信证券及美银证券为联席保荐人。IFR引述知情人士称，由于当下港股市场打新投资者对于定价并不敏感，发行人有望把价格定在招股价范围的最高位的14.5港元。华润是9月25号过的聆讯，招股期本来定的10月初，最终延后了一周多，有未经证实的小道市场消息称，其中之一原因是定价没定好，询价时行情好，想募资80亿，结果众多机构不买账，最后定了50亿募资额。从筹码上分析，公配超购230倍的这种大票，额度不大可能全部是散户打上来的，打新“老司机”猜测有机构因为国配拿不到货，选择从公配拿货。从估值上来说，华润饮料如果按23年算是22PE，跟目前的农夫山泉差不多；但基本面来看，与农夫山泉有差距，未来面临的挑战并不小：年营收135亿元 “怡宝”收入增速下降根据灼识咨询报告，华润饮料是中国最早专业化生产包装饮用水的企业之一。已成长为中国第二大包装饮用水企业以及中国最大的饮用纯净水企业(按2023年零售额计)。根据灼识咨询报告，公司的“怡宝”品牌饮用纯净水产品于2023年的零售额达到了人民币395亿元，是中国饮用纯净水市场的第一品牌。凭借“怡宝”这个单一品牌，华润饮料以18.4%的市场份额位列中国包装饮用水市场第二名，仅次于农夫山泉，同时还成为我国最大的饮用纯净水企业，市场份额约占32.7%。以“怡宝”品牌为中枢，通过不断丰富产品矩阵、拓展产品规格，目前华润饮料已经发展成为一个覆盖外出、居家、商务、 餐饮、运动等多种消费场景的龙头即饮软饮企业。据招股书披露，目前华润饮料主要拥有怡宝、至本清润、蜜水系列、假日系列及佐味茶事等13个品牌的产品组合、共计56个SKU。于2023年，按零售额计，公司在中国即饮软饮企业中排名第五，市场份额约为4.7%。业绩表现来看，2021年至2024年前4个月（以下简称：报告期内）华润饮料实现收入分别约为113.40亿元（单位：人民币，下同）、126.23亿元、135.15亿元、及41.50亿元；年内利润分别约为8.58亿元、9.89亿元、13.31亿元及4.47亿元。营收与净利润均呈现增长状态。分产品来看，华润饮料以怡宝为核心品牌，进行包装饮用水产品的生产与销售。报告期内，怡宝包装饮用水产品产生的收入分别为107.97亿元、118.87亿元、124.05亿元及36.92亿元，占同期包装饮用水产品总收入的99.8%、99.8%、99.7%及99.2%。根据智通财经APP了解，尽管已成为行业龙头，但华润饮料的压力仍存。首先，是整个纯净水已经卷到天花板，市场难以讲好新故事。海通国际研报表示，纯净水为壁垒低，高度竞争的行业，同时单瓶利润薄、需要高周转，比拼企业的综合能力。包装水龙头经过多次变迁后，已进入中低速增长阶段，行业未来增长中数维持在3%-4%之间。这就注定了瓶装“水战”从来都是异常惨烈。招股书显示，怡宝近两年的收入增速呈现下降态势，2022年、2023年，其包装饮用水产品增速由10.06%降到了4.54%。此外，怡宝的纯净水选择了“自有工厂+代加工”的模式，使得华润饮料的利润率与农夫山泉相比明显偏低。2021-2023年，华润饮料毛利率分别为43.8%、41.7%及44.7%。而农夫山泉都是自有工厂生产，毋须支付代工服务费，因此可以更好的控制利润率。农夫山泉公布的2023年业绩显示，其总营收和净利润分别为426.7亿元、120.8亿元。对比之下，营收是华润饮料的三倍之多，利润更是其九倍之多，毛利率也持续稳定在60%左右。除了“怡宝”，凭何增长？正如上文所言，包装饮用水行业仍处于增长状态，但竞争十分激烈。根据灼识咨询报告，按零售额计，2023年中国包装饮用水市场规模为人民币 2,150亿元，2018年至2023年的复合年增长率为7.1%，预计到2028年将达到人民币 3,143亿元，2023年至2028年的复合年增长率为7.9%。正如“水大鱼多”的发展规律一样，这条千亿级的赛道也充满了较大的竞争压力。在风险提示中，华润饮料亦坦言表示：“公司身处中国的即饮软饮行业，现在并将持续保持高度竞争。公司面临 来自现有竞争对手及新行业进入者的激烈竞争。部分竞争对手已在多个品类建 立了市场地位，并拥有更多的财务、研发、营销及其他资源。公司亦与一些较小的品牌竞争，其可能更具创新性，能够更好地将新产品推向市场，并更有效、更迅速地进入和服务利基市场。”不过，就目前来看，华润饮料的营收支柱仍是纯净水业务，饮料产品营收占比不到一成。事实上，饮料市场竞争激烈，消费者口味挑剔，不仅有可口可乐、康师傅及统一等老牌巨头，近年崛起的元气森林以及喜茶、霸王茶姬等网红即饮类品牌都在分流市场。虽然华润饮料援引灼识咨询报告，以2023年零售额计，其在中国菊花茶饮料市场排名第一，以及在风味水市场排名第二。但实际观察来看，华润饮料旗下饮料产品在市场上的影响力相当有限，市场知名度也不显，表现在收入上，也没有取得很好成绩。多品类战略下，也就意味着公司将有大笔的现金流出——截至2024年4月30日止，华润饮料年末现金及现金等价物为21.90亿元，流动资产为56.50亿元，流动负债为53.08亿元，流动资产尚能覆盖流动负债，短期偿债压力正在显著增加。鉴于此，亟需扩充品类的华润饮料也不得不选择赴港“补血”。更为重要的是，华润饮料此时谋划上市的真正意义和诉求，是期望资本对资源的整合和带动。比如对电商渠道的开拓和品类多元化的进一步发力。事实上，华润饮料的对标不仅有农夫山泉，靠酱油起家的海天、以冰箱起家的海尔，都是依靠单一产品打下知名度，上市后通过多元化的加速发展成长为消费巨头。华润饮料的野心，也正是如此。综上，凭借“怡宝”品牌，华润饮料成长为国内包装饮用水市场龙头，营收与利润稳健增长。但随着纯净水市场增速放缓，公司仍需多品类夯实增长根基。不过，就目前来看，饮料水业务尚未起势，成为华润饮料成长的隐忧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348240613683392,"gmtCreate":1726025713928,"gmtModify":1726027618080,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个时候推荐农业银行，这不怕人骂呐？","listText":"这个时候推荐农业银行，这不怕人骂呐？","text":"这个时候推荐农业银行，这不怕人骂呐？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348240613683392","repostId":"2466502174","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343334628897064,"gmtCreate":1724851112375,"gmtModify":1724851114689,"author":{"id":"3569674505068253","authorId":"3569674505068253","name":"大巴特","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba616b7e514c63b828bfbdd3de8a8971","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569674505068253","authorIdStr":"3569674505068253"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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