Norika的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Norika

Norika

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IP属地：江苏

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5主题

0勋章

2021-09-04

$滴滴(DIDI)$[财迷] [财迷] [捂脸] [喷血]

2021-08-23

共同富裕具体政策没出，要谨慎，别死在里面

阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？

2021-08-19

$快手-W(01024)$快手发行价腰斩后再考虑了[捂脸] [喷血]

2021-08-09

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$阿里有没有携资本之名操纵微博，控制舆论？如果有，难道阿里买微博的初衷是这？$微博(WB)$这有点小可怕了[捂脸]

2021-08-09

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$真正做到了客户第一:送美女，员工第二:员工享受性福，股东第三:低价股票买不了吃亏，买不了上当🌚

2021-07-20

2021-06-28

$叮咚(DDL)$let me see

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[喷血]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb331934c04f75b21bdf222b179ab3fe","width":"828","height":"1792"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815597683","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":835128315,"gmtCreate":1629695739337,"gmtModify":1629695739337,"author":{"id":"3569095459886411","authorId":"3569095459886411","name":"Norika","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587c8450169db8e74f3d15d3416ea712","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569095459886411","authorIdStr":"3569095459886411"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"共同富裕具体政策没出，要谨慎，别死在里面","listText":"共同富裕具体政策没出，要谨慎，别死在里面","text":"共同富裕具体政策没出，要谨慎，别死在里面","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835128315","repostId":"2161474406","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161474406","pubTimestamp":1629684482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2161474406?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 10:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161474406","media":"证券市场红周刊","summary":"受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构","content":"<p>受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。</p>\n<p><b>二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、施罗德、摩根等机构增持</b></p>\n<p>截至美东时间8月19日收盘（下同），美股机构披露的持仓数据显示，二季度，机构对阿里的调仓整体偏“乐观”。</p>\n<p>如13F最新披露数据显示，截至二季度末，共有1757家机构持仓阿里，与第一季度1749家的持仓数量基本持平。进一步来看，在二季度1757家持仓阿里机构中，给予增持、持仓未变、新进的机构家数分别为703、245、248，合计为1196家，占二季度持仓阿里机构比例为68%。与之相对，减持、清仓的机构分别为561、240家。</p>\n<p>受股价重挫影响，二季度末，机构持仓阿里的总市值为1495亿美元，该持仓市值水平已经降至近五个季度最低水平。此外，机构的持仓占比也在不断下降，最新的持股比例为24.34%。</p>\n<p>纵向对比来看，截至2020-6-30，机构持仓阿里占比为44.11%，持仓市值为2552亿美元；截至2020-09-30，机构持仓阿里占比和市值分别为40.73%与3212亿美元；截至2020-12-31，持股占比和市值分别为36.19%与2283亿美元；截至2021-3-30则分别为32.55%与2000亿美元。</p>\n<p>图1 机构近五个季度持仓阿里</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164254152v1546m6vw5iwjn6\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>从增持名单来看，高盛（GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC）目前持仓阿里市值最高，达69亿美元，二季度，高盛增仓阿里23.86%，目前，为高盛二季度第五大重仓股。（注：高盛二季度总持仓市值为4463亿美元）</p>\n<p>值得一提的是，高盛对阿里的增持并非短期动作，而是“长情行为”。据Wind数据显示，曾在2014年3季度，高盛即建仓阿里，当时持仓仅23,032.2万美元，截至今年2季度末，已连续持仓达25个季度，且在其间不断增仓。</p>\n<p>图2 高盛持仓阿里巴巴</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164304962v1549gnmmmnlcik\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>另外，二季度对阿里进行增持且持仓市值居前的公司还包括SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP（施罗德投资管理集团）、MORGAN STANLEY（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>）、PRIMECAP管理公司等。</p>\n<p>表1 二季度主要增仓阿里机构（部分）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164305849v154jrxrz96v7ym\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"884\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>与之相对，二季度，共有561家机构对阿里进行了减仓。统计显示，减仓幅度＜20%的公司332家，减仓幅度在20%~50%的公司有136家。减仓幅度＞50%的机构有93家，其中有39家机构减仓超过80%，如BLACKROCK INC.（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>）减仓达88.28 %，持仓市值由今年一季度末的190.1亿美元降至22.3亿美元。此外，STATE STREET CORP（美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">道富银行</a>）减仓幅度同样高达86.23 %；</p>\n<p>表2 二季度主要减仓阿里机构（部分）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164312662v154fvtq2a3wmt8\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p><b>股价“腰斩”市值缩水超4000亿美元</b></p>\n<p>“监管”充分反映估值已具“吸引力</p>\n<p>截至美东时间8月19日收盘，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)当日重挫6.85%，刷新年内新低，今年以来，阿里累计跌幅已经达到了31%。而自去年10月27日高点至今，累计跌幅已近50%，几近“腰斩”。</p>\n<p>图3 阿里股价表现</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164323739v154cu4vh1o2d6g\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>伴随股价下跌，阿里市值大幅缩水。目前来看，阿里最新市值为约4364亿美元，相较于年初6243亿美元缩水1879亿美元，相较于去年10月27日高点8507亿美元市值缩水4143亿美元。</p>\n<p>图4 阿里市值变化（亿美元）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164325203v154avjz8v2h2jh\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>进一步来看，阿里估值水平也出现进一步下降。今年以来，阿里估值多保持在20倍~30倍之间，最新估值仅在20倍左右。</p>\n<p>图5 阿里估值水平变化</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164331028v15445zmhdffl5o\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p><b>阿里长线投资价值逐步凸显</b></p>\n<p><b>但不建议贸然“抄底”</b></p>\n<p>与二季度多数投资机构对阿里持有“积极态度”相通，券商也同样给予阿里“乐观预判”。</p>\n<p>如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>，据其8月上旬发布的研究报告指出，阿里巴巴发布FY2022Q1业绩，核心商业稳健增长，其认为，股价经过持续调整，已反映公司新业务投入对业绩增长影响的悲观预期，及监管风险带来的估值偏好下降。而伴随着阿里巴巴新业务的不断推进，公司的技术和服务能力呈现明显提升态势，公司依然具有较好的相对竞争优势，维持对公司中长期发展的乐观判断。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">招商证券</a>(香港) 认为，由于监管机构禁止通过价格倾销来促销，竞争环境变得更加公平，而阿里的优势如充足的现金储备，以及强大的供应链能力（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06808\">高鑫零售</a>在生鲜、快消品类的供给）则更能被凸显。此外，阿里承诺将着眼于长期价值，并将加大在供应链、履约能力和基础设施上的投入。</p>\n<p>有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。如雪球大V@陈达美股投资表示，阿里的估值创新低，“但不会贸然抄底...”。</p>\n<p>而从《红周刊》采访的多位投资人反馈来看，对于阿里的长期投资价值 ，“看多”的占绝大多数，但短期而言，风险偏好降低带来的波动或仍将持续。</p>\n<p>这也可能就会导致，虽然投资需要“做时间的朋友”是个人尽皆知的良言，但实操中真正能做到的可能仍是少数。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 10:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b><strong>证券市场红周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。\n二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里\n高盛、施罗德、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2161474406","content_text":"受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。\n二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里\n高盛、施罗德、摩根等机构增持\n截至美东时间8月19日收盘（下同），美股机构披露的持仓数据显示，二季度，机构对阿里的调仓整体偏“乐观”。\n如13F最新披露数据显示，截至二季度末，共有1757家机构持仓阿里，与第一季度1749家的持仓数量基本持平。进一步来看，在二季度1757家持仓阿里机构中，给予增持、持仓未变、新进的机构家数分别为703、245、248，合计为1196家，占二季度持仓阿里机构比例为68%。与之相对，减持、清仓的机构分别为561、240家。\n受股价重挫影响，二季度末，机构持仓阿里的总市值为1495亿美元，该持仓市值水平已经降至近五个季度最低水平。此外，机构的持仓占比也在不断下降，最新的持股比例为24.34%。\n纵向对比来看，截至2020-6-30，机构持仓阿里占比为44.11%，持仓市值为2552亿美元；截至2020-09-30，机构持仓阿里占比和市值分别为40.73%与3212亿美元；截至2020-12-31，持股占比和市值分别为36.19%与2283亿美元；截至2021-3-30则分别为32.55%与2000亿美元。\n图1 机构近五个季度持仓阿里\n\n数据来源：Wind\n从增持名单来看，高盛（GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC）目前持仓阿里市值最高，达69亿美元，二季度，高盛增仓阿里23.86%，目前，为高盛二季度第五大重仓股。（注：高盛二季度总持仓市值为4463亿美元）\n值得一提的是，高盛对阿里的增持并非短期动作，而是“长情行为”。据Wind数据显示，曾在2014年3季度，高盛即建仓阿里，当时持仓仅23,032.2万美元，截至今年2季度末，已连续持仓达25个季度，且在其间不断增仓。\n图2 高盛持仓阿里巴巴\n\n数据来源：Wind\n另外，二季度对阿里进行增持且持仓市值居前的公司还包括SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP（施罗德投资管理集团）、MORGAN STANLEY（摩根士丹利）、PRIMECAP管理公司等。\n表1 二季度主要增仓阿里机构（部分）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n与之相对，二季度，共有561家机构对阿里进行了减仓。统计显示，减仓幅度＜20%的公司332家，减仓幅度在20%~50%的公司有136家。减仓幅度＞50%的机构有93家，其中有39家机构减仓超过80%，如BLACKROCK INC.（贝莱德）减仓达88.28 %，持仓市值由今年一季度末的190.1亿美元降至22.3亿美元。此外，STATE STREET CORP（美国道富银行）减仓幅度同样高达86.23 %；\n表2 二季度主要减仓阿里机构（部分）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n股价“腰斩”市值缩水超4000亿美元\n“监管”充分反映估值已具“吸引力\n截至美东时间8月19日收盘，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)当日重挫6.85%，刷新年内新低，今年以来，阿里累计跌幅已经达到了31%。而自去年10月27日高点至今，累计跌幅已近50%，几近“腰斩”。\n图3 阿里股价表现\n\n数据来源：Wind\n伴随股价下跌，阿里市值大幅缩水。目前来看，阿里最新市值为约4364亿美元，相较于年初6243亿美元缩水1879亿美元，相较于去年10月27日高点8507亿美元市值缩水4143亿美元。\n图4 阿里市值变化（亿美元）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n进一步来看，阿里估值水平也出现进一步下降。今年以来，阿里估值多保持在20倍~30倍之间，最新估值仅在20倍左右。\n图5 阿里估值水平变化\n\n数据来源：Wind\n阿里长线投资价值逐步凸显\n但不建议贸然“抄底”\n与二季度多数投资机构对阿里持有“积极态度”相通，券商也同样给予阿里“乐观预判”。\n如中信证券，据其8月上旬发布的研究报告指出，阿里巴巴发布FY2022Q1业绩，核心商业稳健增长，其认为，股价经过持续调整，已反映公司新业务投入对业绩增长影响的悲观预期，及监管风险带来的估值偏好下降。而伴随着阿里巴巴新业务的不断推进，公司的技术和服务能力呈现明显提升态势，公司依然具有较好的相对竞争优势，维持对公司中长期发展的乐观判断。\n招商证券(香港) 认为，由于监管机构禁止通过价格倾销来促销，竞争环境变得更加公平，而阿里的优势如充足的现金储备，以及强大的供应链能力（如高鑫零售在生鲜、快消品类的供给）则更能被凸显。此外，阿里承诺将着眼于长期价值，并将加大在供应链、履约能力和基础设施上的投入。\n有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。如雪球大V@陈达美股投资表示，阿里的估值创新低，“但不会贸然抄底...”。\n而从《红周刊》采访的多位投资人反馈来看，对于阿里的长期投资价值 ，“看多”的占绝大多数，但短期而言，风险偏好降低带来的波动或仍将持续。\n这也可能就会导致，虽然投资需要“做时间的朋友”是个人尽皆知的良言，但实操中真正能做到的可能仍是少数。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838042273,"gmtCreate":1629361378592,"gmtModify":1629361378592,"author":{"id":"3569095459886411","authorId":"3569095459886411","name":"Norika","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587c8450169db8e74f3d15d3416ea712","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569095459886411","authorIdStr":"3569095459886411"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>快手发行价腰斩后再考虑了[捂脸]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">$叮咚(DDL)$</a>let me see","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">$叮咚(DDL)$</a>let me see","text":"$叮咚(DDL)$let me see","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5408b6c149ab5bf183ae6323254a73","width":"1156","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150077156","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":898174815,"gmtCreate":1628481364937,"gmtModify":1628481364937,"author":{"id":"3569095459886411","authorId":"3569095459886411","name":"Norika","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587c8450169db8e74f3d15d3416ea712","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569095459886411","idStr":"3569095459886411"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>真正做到了客户第一:送美女，员工第二:员工享受性福，股东第三:低价股票买不了吃亏，买不了上当🌚","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>真正做到了客户第一:送美女，员工第二:员工享受性福，股东第三:低价股票买不了吃亏，买不了上当🌚","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$真正做到了客户第一:送美女，员工第二:员工享受性福，股东第三:低价股票买不了吃亏，买不了上当🌚","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898174815","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":835128315,"gmtCreate":1629695739337,"gmtModify":1629695739337,"author":{"id":"3569095459886411","authorId":"3569095459886411","name":"Norika","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587c8450169db8e74f3d15d3416ea712","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569095459886411","idStr":"3569095459886411"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"共同富裕具体政策没出，要谨慎，别死在里面","listText":"共同富裕具体政策没出，要谨慎，别死在里面","text":"共同富裕具体政策没出，要谨慎，别死在里面","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835128315","repostId":"2161474406","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2161474406","pubTimestamp":1629684482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2161474406?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 10:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161474406","media":"证券市场红周刊","summary":"受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构","content":"<p>受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。</p>\n<p><b>二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、施罗德、摩根等机构增持</b></p>\n<p>截至美东时间8月19日收盘（下同），美股机构披露的持仓数据显示，二季度，机构对阿里的调仓整体偏“乐观”。</p>\n<p>如13F最新披露数据显示，截至二季度末，共有1757家机构持仓阿里，与第一季度1749家的持仓数量基本持平。进一步来看，在二季度1757家持仓阿里机构中，给予增持、持仓未变、新进的机构家数分别为703、245、248，合计为1196家，占二季度持仓阿里机构比例为68%。与之相对，减持、清仓的机构分别为561、240家。</p>\n<p>受股价重挫影响，二季度末，机构持仓阿里的总市值为1495亿美元，该持仓市值水平已经降至近五个季度最低水平。此外，机构的持仓占比也在不断下降，最新的持股比例为24.34%。</p>\n<p>纵向对比来看，截至2020-6-30，机构持仓阿里占比为44.11%，持仓市值为2552亿美元；截至2020-09-30，机构持仓阿里占比和市值分别为40.73%与3212亿美元；截至2020-12-31，持股占比和市值分别为36.19%与2283亿美元；截至2021-3-30则分别为32.55%与2000亿美元。</p>\n<p>图1 机构近五个季度持仓阿里</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164254152v1546m6vw5iwjn6\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>从增持名单来看，高盛（GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC）目前持仓阿里市值最高，达69亿美元，二季度，高盛增仓阿里23.86%，目前，为高盛二季度第五大重仓股。（注：高盛二季度总持仓市值为4463亿美元）</p>\n<p>值得一提的是，高盛对阿里的增持并非短期动作，而是“长情行为”。据Wind数据显示，曾在2014年3季度，高盛即建仓阿里，当时持仓仅23,032.2万美元，截至今年2季度末，已连续持仓达25个季度，且在其间不断增仓。</p>\n<p>图2 高盛持仓阿里巴巴</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164304962v1549gnmmmnlcik\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>另外，二季度对阿里进行增持且持仓市值居前的公司还包括SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP（施罗德投资管理集团）、MORGAN STANLEY（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>）、PRIMECAP管理公司等。</p>\n<p>表1 二季度主要增仓阿里机构（部分）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164305849v154jrxrz96v7ym\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"884\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>与之相对，二季度，共有561家机构对阿里进行了减仓。统计显示，减仓幅度＜20%的公司332家，减仓幅度在20%~50%的公司有136家。减仓幅度＞50%的机构有93家，其中有39家机构减仓超过80%，如BLACKROCK INC.（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>）减仓达88.28 %，持仓市值由今年一季度末的190.1亿美元降至22.3亿美元。此外，STATE STREET CORP（美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">道富银行</a>）减仓幅度同样高达86.23 %；</p>\n<p>表2 二季度主要减仓阿里机构（部分）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164312662v154fvtq2a3wmt8\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p><b>股价“腰斩”市值缩水超4000亿美元</b></p>\n<p>“监管”充分反映估值已具“吸引力</p>\n<p>截至美东时间8月19日收盘，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)当日重挫6.85%，刷新年内新低，今年以来，阿里累计跌幅已经达到了31%。而自去年10月27日高点至今，累计跌幅已近50%，几近“腰斩”。</p>\n<p>图3 阿里股价表现</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164323739v154cu4vh1o2d6g\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>伴随股价下跌，阿里市值大幅缩水。目前来看，阿里最新市值为约4364亿美元，相较于年初6243亿美元缩水1879亿美元，相较于去年10月27日高点8507亿美元市值缩水4143亿美元。</p>\n<p>图4 阿里市值变化（亿美元）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164325203v154avjz8v2h2jh\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>进一步来看，阿里估值水平也出现进一步下降。今年以来，阿里估值多保持在20倍~30倍之间，最新估值仅在20倍左右。</p>\n<p>图5 阿里估值水平变化</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164331028v15445zmhdffl5o\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p><b>阿里长线投资价值逐步凸显</b></p>\n<p><b>但不建议贸然“抄底”</b></p>\n<p>与二季度多数投资机构对阿里持有“积极态度”相通，券商也同样给予阿里“乐观预判”。</p>\n<p>如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>，据其8月上旬发布的研究报告指出，阿里巴巴发布FY2022Q1业绩，核心商业稳健增长，其认为，股价经过持续调整，已反映公司新业务投入对业绩增长影响的悲观预期，及监管风险带来的估值偏好下降。而伴随着阿里巴巴新业务的不断推进，公司的技术和服务能力呈现明显提升态势，公司依然具有较好的相对竞争优势，维持对公司中长期发展的乐观判断。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">招商证券</a>(香港) 认为，由于监管机构禁止通过价格倾销来促销，竞争环境变得更加公平，而阿里的优势如充足的现金储备，以及强大的供应链能力（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06808\">高鑫零售</a>在生鲜、快消品类的供给）则更能被凸显。此外，阿里承诺将着眼于长期价值，并将加大在供应链、履约能力和基础设施上的投入。</p>\n<p>有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。如雪球大V@陈达美股投资表示，阿里的估值创新低，“但不会贸然抄底...”。</p>\n<p>而从《红周刊》采访的多位投资人反馈来看，对于阿里的长期投资价值 ，“看多”的占绝大多数，但短期而言，风险偏好降低带来的波动或仍将持续。</p>\n<p>这也可能就会导致，虽然投资需要“做时间的朋友”是个人尽皆知的良言，但实操中真正能做到的可能仍是少数。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 10:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b><strong>证券市场红周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。\n二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里\n高盛、施罗德、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2161474406","content_text":"受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。\n二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里\n高盛、施罗德、摩根等机构增持\n截至美东时间8月19日收盘（下同），美股机构披露的持仓数据显示，二季度，机构对阿里的调仓整体偏“乐观”。\n如13F最新披露数据显示，截至二季度末，共有1757家机构持仓阿里，与第一季度1749家的持仓数量基本持平。进一步来看，在二季度1757家持仓阿里机构中，给予增持、持仓未变、新进的机构家数分别为703、245、248，合计为1196家，占二季度持仓阿里机构比例为68%。与之相对，减持、清仓的机构分别为561、240家。\n受股价重挫影响，二季度末，机构持仓阿里的总市值为1495亿美元，该持仓市值水平已经降至近五个季度最低水平。此外，机构的持仓占比也在不断下降，最新的持股比例为24.34%。\n纵向对比来看，截至2020-6-30，机构持仓阿里占比为44.11%，持仓市值为2552亿美元；截至2020-09-30，机构持仓阿里占比和市值分别为40.73%与3212亿美元；截至2020-12-31，持股占比和市值分别为36.19%与2283亿美元；截至2021-3-30则分别为32.55%与2000亿美元。\n图1 机构近五个季度持仓阿里\n\n数据来源：Wind\n从增持名单来看，高盛（GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC）目前持仓阿里市值最高，达69亿美元，二季度，高盛增仓阿里23.86%，目前，为高盛二季度第五大重仓股。（注：高盛二季度总持仓市值为4463亿美元）\n值得一提的是，高盛对阿里的增持并非短期动作，而是“长情行为”。据Wind数据显示，曾在2014年3季度，高盛即建仓阿里，当时持仓仅23,032.2万美元，截至今年2季度末，已连续持仓达25个季度，且在其间不断增仓。\n图2 高盛持仓阿里巴巴\n\n数据来源：Wind\n另外，二季度对阿里进行增持且持仓市值居前的公司还包括SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP（施罗德投资管理集团）、MORGAN STANLEY（摩根士丹利）、PRIMECAP管理公司等。\n表1 二季度主要增仓阿里机构（部分）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n与之相对，二季度，共有561家机构对阿里进行了减仓。统计显示，减仓幅度＜20%的公司332家，减仓幅度在20%~50%的公司有136家。减仓幅度＞50%的机构有93家，其中有39家机构减仓超过80%，如BLACKROCK INC.（贝莱德）减仓达88.28 %，持仓市值由今年一季度末的190.1亿美元降至22.3亿美元。此外，STATE STREET CORP（美国道富银行）减仓幅度同样高达86.23 %；\n表2 二季度主要减仓阿里机构（部分）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n股价“腰斩”市值缩水超4000亿美元\n“监管”充分反映估值已具“吸引力\n截至美东时间8月19日收盘，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)当日重挫6.85%，刷新年内新低，今年以来，阿里累计跌幅已经达到了31%。而自去年10月27日高点至今，累计跌幅已近50%，几近“腰斩”。\n图3 阿里股价表现\n\n数据来源：Wind\n伴随股价下跌，阿里市值大幅缩水。目前来看，阿里最新市值为约4364亿美元，相较于年初6243亿美元缩水1879亿美元，相较于去年10月27日高点8507亿美元市值缩水4143亿美元。\n图4 阿里市值变化（亿美元）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n进一步来看，阿里估值水平也出现进一步下降。今年以来，阿里估值多保持在20倍~30倍之间，最新估值仅在20倍左右。\n图5 阿里估值水平变化\n\n数据来源：Wind\n阿里长线投资价值逐步凸显\n但不建议贸然“抄底”\n与二季度多数投资机构对阿里持有“积极态度”相通，券商也同样给予阿里“乐观预判”。\n如中信证券，据其8月上旬发布的研究报告指出，阿里巴巴发布FY2022Q1业绩，核心商业稳健增长，其认为，股价经过持续调整，已反映公司新业务投入对业绩增长影响的悲观预期，及监管风险带来的估值偏好下降。而伴随着阿里巴巴新业务的不断推进，公司的技术和服务能力呈现明显提升态势，公司依然具有较好的相对竞争优势，维持对公司中长期发展的乐观判断。\n招商证券(香港) 认为，由于监管机构禁止通过价格倾销来促销，竞争环境变得更加公平，而阿里的优势如充足的现金储备，以及强大的供应链能力（如高鑫零售在生鲜、快消品类的供给）则更能被凸显。此外，阿里承诺将着眼于长期价值，并将加大在供应链、履约能力和基础设施上的投入。\n有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。如雪球大V@陈达美股投资表示，阿里的估值创新低，“但不会贸然抄底...”。\n而从《红周刊》采访的多位投资人反馈来看，对于阿里的长期投资价值 ，“看多”的占绝大多数，但短期而言，风险偏好降低带来的波动或仍将持续。\n这也可能就会导致，虽然投资需要“做时间的朋友”是个人尽皆知的良言，但实操中真正能做到的可能仍是少数。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838042273,"gmtCreate":1629361378592,"gmtModify":1629361378592,"author":{"id":"3569095459886411","authorId":"3569095459886411","name":"Norika","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/587c8450169db8e74f3d15d3416ea712","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3569095459886411","idStr":"3569095459886411"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a>快手发行价腰斩后再考虑了[捂脸]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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