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ych_3610
07-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
crazy!
ych_3610
06-13
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这走势是有消息偷跑?明天投票成功?涨的有点离谱
ych_3610
05-15
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
百度官方宣布在跟特斯拉聊robot taxi 进入中国的合作.这个信号,不解释. 特斯拉有纯视觉算法跟数据,百度在国内有算力,也有数据. win win.
ych_3610
04-22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
对于特斯拉目前遇到的危机,跟早期量产地狱,以及sapceX早期连续发射失败危机相比,简直不值一提。看空or看多,无非是你是否买账老马的愿景或者说画的饼罢了。跌那么多无非短期看空比较强。继续等待好的买入时期。
ych_3610
03-26
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
十年磨一剑,老马这个信号很明确了。所有新车主试用一个月,硬性要求销售带客户体验。这信心不用解释了吧。🛫
ych_3610
2023-02-28
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
To the moon again.
ych_3610
2023-02-03
1
抱歉,原内容已删除
ych_3610
2021-08-19
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
to the moon!今天开始
ych_3610
2021-08-17
$腾讯音乐(TME)$
肯定有些吊机构在做空,tm能跌到这里,不讲逻辑完全跌的。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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这走势是有消息偷跑?明天投票成功?涨的有点离谱","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 这走势是有消息偷跑?明天投票成功?涨的有点离谱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316138386215120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"203105757513414","authorId":"203105757513414","name":"昵称567","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87061f98cee6875ec1599d4c24bee99f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"203105757513414","authorIdStr":"203105757513414"},"content":"感觉已经投完票了。。。","text":"感觉已经投完票了。。。","html":"感觉已经投完票了。。。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306103609249984,"gmtCreate":1715766983158,"gmtModify":1715767030921,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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现在多少"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288473267015952,"gmtCreate":1711460692566,"gmtModify":1711460694410,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 十年磨一剑,老马这个信号很明确了。所有新车主试用一个月,硬性要求销售带客户体验。这信心不用解释了吧。🛫","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 十年磨一剑,老马这个信号很明确了。所有新车主试用一个月,硬性要求销售带客户体验。这信心不用解释了吧。🛫","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 十年磨一剑,老马这个信号很明确了。所有新车主试用一个月,硬性要求销售带客户体验。这信心不用解释了吧。🛫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288473267015952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624549980,"gmtCreate":1677589205540,"gmtModify":1677589657419,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>To the moon again.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>To the moon again.","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ To the moon 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moon!今天开始","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831605917","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316138386215120,"gmtCreate":1718208626920,"gmtModify":1718208628605,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 这走势是有消息偷跑?明天投票成功?涨的有点离谱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 这走势是有消息偷跑?明天投票成功?涨的有点离谱","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 这走势是有消息偷跑?明天投票成功?涨的有点离谱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316138386215120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"203105757513414","authorId":"203105757513414","name":"昵称567","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87061f98cee6875ec1599d4c24bee99f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"203105757513414","authorIdStr":"203105757513414"},"content":"感觉已经投完票了。。。","text":"感觉已经投完票了。。。","html":"感觉已经投完票了。。。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":288473267015952,"gmtCreate":1711460692566,"gmtModify":1711460694410,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 十年磨一剑,老马这个信号很明确了。所有新车主试用一个月,硬性要求销售带客户体验。这信心不用解释了吧。🛫","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 十年磨一剑,老马这个信号很明确了。所有新车主试用一个月,硬性要求销售带客户体验。这信心不用解释了吧。🛫","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 十年磨一剑,老马这个信号很明确了。所有新车主试用一个月,硬性要求销售带客户体验。这信心不用解释了吧。🛫","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288473267015952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":298044219261216,"gmtCreate":1713793438131,"gmtModify":1713793724902,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 对于特斯拉目前遇到的危机,跟早期量产地狱,以及sapceX早期连续发射失败危机相比,简直不值一提。看空or看多,无非是你是否买账老马的愿景或者说画的饼罢了。跌那么多无非短期看空比较强。继续等待好的买入时期。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 对于特斯拉目前遇到的危机,跟早期量产地狱,以及sapceX早期连续发射失败危机相比,简直不值一提。看空or看多,无非是你是否买账老马的愿景或者说画的饼罢了。跌那么多无非短期看空比较强。继续等待好的买入时期。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 对于特斯拉目前遇到的危机,跟早期量产地狱,以及sapceX早期连续发射失败危机相比,简直不值一提。看空or看多,无非是你是否买账老马的愿景或者说画的饼罢了。跌那么多无非短期看空比较强。继续等待好的买入时期。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/298044219261216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3480411534151935","authorId":"3480411534151935","name":"Justup","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c483421d3379b27e1743c0590a8185","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3480411534151935","authorIdStr":"3480411534151935"},"content":"当时股价多少 现在多少","text":"当时股价多少 现在多少","html":"当时股价多少 现在多少"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624549980,"gmtCreate":1677589205540,"gmtModify":1677589657419,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>To the moon again.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>To the moon again.","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ To the moon again.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624549980","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":323566043156696,"gmtCreate":1720017818747,"gmtModify":1720017819952,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> crazy!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> crazy!","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ crazy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323566043156696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":306103609249984,"gmtCreate":1715766983158,"gmtModify":1715767030921,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 百度官方宣布在跟特斯拉聊robot taxi 进入中国的合作.这个信号,不解释. 特斯拉有纯视觉算法跟数据,百度在国内有算力,也有数据. win win.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 百度官方宣布在跟特斯拉聊robot taxi 进入中国的合作.这个信号,不解释. 特斯拉有纯视觉算法跟数据,百度在国内有算力,也有数据. win win.","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 百度官方宣布在跟特斯拉聊robot taxi 进入中国的合作.这个信号,不解释. 特斯拉有纯视觉算法跟数据,百度在国内有算力,也有数据. win win.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306103609249984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622690154,"gmtCreate":1675417913478,"gmtModify":1675417966663,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622690154","repostId":"1123361742","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123361742","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675412455,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123361742?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-03 16:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉第四季度创佳绩,目前股价仍偏低?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123361742","media":"金十数据","summary":"特斯拉还在继续提高其 \"技术壁垒\",不断创新。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>是世界上最大的电动车制造商,而且拥有新兴的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>存储技术,未来可能发展<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>业务<b>。2022年第四季度,特斯拉业绩强劲,营收和盈利增长均超预期,但根据本文分析师的估值模型,特斯拉的股票价值被低估了。</b></p><p>全球最大的电动汽车制造商和科技巨头特斯拉最近公布了2022年第四季度财报,业绩喜人,尽管存在需求下滑的疑虑,但<b>净利润与营收皆超预期</b>。去年,特斯拉的股价从2021年11月的历史高点暴跌了72%,但自今年开始,其股价爆涨了48%。尽管出现了部分反弹,但估值模型表明,特斯拉的股票价值被低估了,毕竟特斯拉拥有许多竞争优势,例如,全自动驾驶技术和制造效率。本文将对特斯拉最近的财务状况进行分析,并深入研究采用的估值模型。</p><p><i>特斯拉股价</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f03914b83356ecd36b6aa5d79c8f381\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:YCharts)</p><p><b>财务业绩增长</b></p><p>特斯拉2022年第四季度财务业绩强劲,营收达243.2亿美元,高出分析师预期1721万美元,同比增长37.24%,表现良好,<b>虽然慢于前一季度55.49%的增长,但考虑到宏观经济环境,总体上仍然很稳健</b>。下图显示,汽车行业近一个季度的收入增长几乎持平(平均),以前只有约19%的增长。标准普尔500指数的平均营收增长约位15%,明显低于特斯拉。由于特斯拉是标准普尔500指数的大头,其他汽车股和标普也拉低了这个平均数。</p><p><i>特斯拉营收增长与汽车行业和标普500指数的营收增长比较</i></p><p>(来源:特斯拉2022第四季度财报)</p><p>将营收拆开来看,特斯拉监管信贷收入同比增长49%,达到4.67亿美元。美国政府的《通货膨胀削减法案》贡献了部分增长。该法案为使用美国制造电池的美国汽车提供了7500美元的电动车税收抵免计划,有助于提高特斯拉的性价比。应该注意的是,<b>并非所有的特斯拉汽车都有资格获得税收减免</b>。根据环保局的数据,Model Y被归类为 "小型SUV"。然而,美国国税局在对5座车型与7座车型的分类不同。因此,小型SUV或5座特斯拉的 "制造商建议零售价"[MSRP]价格上限为55,000美元,7座车型为80,000美元。撰写本文时,Model Y长续航版起价为52,990美元,特斯拉降价可能是为了不超过法案规定的55,000美元门槛而定的价,所以该车型是符合资格的。</p><p>然而,Model Y高性能版起价约为56,990美元,因此可能 "不符合条件"。激励计划非常复杂,并且不断更新,因州而异。要获取更多信息的话,最好查看一下特斯拉官方的州名单和要求,以及美国国税局的细节。优惠条件也将在3月份再次发生变化,所以请继续留意。无论如何,本文的投资论点并非以税收抵免的程度为基础,特斯拉对此的依赖性已经降低。</p><p><i>符合优惠条件的特斯拉车型</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/282df0aaee0b163d061beffa801963e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"118\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:特斯拉EPA)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5adc81c4d47ef078e93c2d463982d074\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:Verge税收优惠数据)</p><p>由于气候变化备受关注,英美等躲过政府已经计划分别在2030年和2035年之前禁止石化燃料汽车的生产,为特斯拉创造了很好的条件。传统车企目前需要斥巨资对工厂设备进行转型,以符合大规模生产电动汽车的要求。<b>特斯拉从成立之初就以垂直整合的方式专注于电动汽车制造,所以具有强大的先发者和技术优势。</b></p><p><i>特斯拉营收</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/562504d46abac07b3775c1aeded3fad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"106\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:特斯拉2022年第三季度财报)</p><p>就车辆交付情况而言,特斯拉2022年第四季度总交付量为405278台,同比增长31%,创季度新高。</p><p><i>车辆交付数(单位:百万台)</i></p><p>(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度财报)</p><p>车辆交付量增长主要由Model 3/Y驱动,交付数达388,131台,同比快速增长了31%。Model S/x也开始流行,交付量同比增长了46%,达到17147辆。</p><p><i>特斯拉车辆交付</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df849248bdcc8a3bc932511126063153\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度财报)</p><p><b>特斯拉本季度生产量也很可观,达到439,701台,同比增长44%</b>。马斯克以前说过,建造原型是 "相对容易的",扩大生产规模才是 "难点",所以说能实现目前的生产规模真是壮举。<b>规模化生产存在许多挑战,从部件采购到质量控制,还要考虑成本效率和劳动力等因素。</b>例如,一个零件的质量问题就会带来巨大的破坏和昂贵的产品召回。特斯拉在生产的 "爬坡 "阶段也遭遇过质量问题。特斯拉的生产也出现过问题,例如,受疫情影响,上海工厂出现了大规模生产延误。</p><p><b>特斯拉的"垂直整合 "模式对公司具有积极意义,有助于提高供应链的可靠性并节省成本。</b>比如,特斯拉之前已经购买了锂开采区的土地权,锂是电池制造的关键。在制造方面,特斯拉开创了独特的技术,如 "Gigapress",最大限度地减少了离散部件的数量,节省了更多焊接环节。这类创新会持续下去,传统车企也可能在电动车制造领域设法追赶。最近,特斯拉宣布斥36亿美元巨资投资内华达工厂。</p><p><b>尽管特斯拉生产和交付量创下佳绩,但需求下降的迹象也很明显。</b>去年12月,特斯拉减少了超级工厂工人的班次,推迟了上海的人才招聘。此外,报告显示,<b>由于需求下滑,特斯拉在2023年1月降低了生产速度,此前,特斯拉已在中国降价。</b></p><p>下图显示,特斯拉的全年生产增长率目标为47.2%,略低于管理层50%的目标。然而,2022年的交付量同比增长40.3%,远低于管理层的目标。可见,需求有所下降。但本文分析师认为,这类<b>需求下降主要是由宏观经济环境和不确定性造成的</b>,所以对特斯拉来说也不是太坏。此外,预计电动车市场仍将以22.5%的复合年增长率快速增长,到2030年可创造出1.1万亿美元的价值。</p><p><i>特斯拉交付数量</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4df9e8a3d3198c5388621fd9361d12d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(注:基于特斯拉业绩公布前的初始交付数;来源:TroyTeslike)</p><p>特斯拉的其他业务部门方面,报告显示,其<b>部署的能源储存创新高</b>,增长152%,达到2462兆瓦时。2022年全年,特斯拉已经部署了超过6.5GWh的储能,2021年时只有4GWH。特斯拉部署的太阳能也同比增长了18%,达到100MW。<b>储能和太阳能屋顶目前并非特斯拉业务的大头,但总体潜在市场巨大。</b>拜登此前提出计划,到2050年,太阳能将占美国整体能源的45%,相比之下,2021年只有3%。太阳能和风能都是稍纵即逝的,所以需要进行存储,才能确保长期稳定的电力供应。据估计,到2030年,全球储能市场将增长15倍。</p><p><i>特斯拉储能量(单位:GWh)</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55231337d778905c2d4d99d21534759d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度财报)</p><p><b>自动驾驶</b></p><p>本文分析师估计,<b>特斯拉掌握自动驾驶技术的几率比全球其他公司要高。因为大量已经上路的特斯拉车辆一直在 "学习"。</b>例如,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的Waymo2020年这一年间就完成了1000万英里的驾驶,而前10年所完成的历程也是1000万英里。听着挺震撼人心的,但Waymo在2021年只有约700辆注册车辆在路上行驶,远远落后于特斯拉。但从特斯拉最新的全自动驾驶测试计划来看,到2022年第四季度末,该项目已经积累了9000多万英里,远超Waymo。<b>特斯拉的成功之处在于能与客户维持良好的关系。</b>特斯拉司机会们都很乐意参与测试,并自愿进行功能测试。然而,如果传统车企试图想采取这种做法就很容易陷入困难,官司不断。特斯拉的全自动驾驶测试版在北美面向约40万客户推出。</p><p><i>FSD Beta累计里程</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9a5f193db7339ebcd528096a2e90dc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度财报)</p><p><b>盈利能力与资产负债表</b></p><p>特斯拉报告每股收益为1.07美元,比分析师的预期高出0.02美元。特斯拉过去的争议焦点在于,它到底是一家 "汽车公司 "还是技术公司呢?参考一下事实,<b>特斯拉的大部分收入来自汽车销售,但其约17%的营业利润率却大大高于汽车行业8%的平均水平</b>,虽然现在部分利润由垂直整合和制造能力驱动。特斯拉拥有强大的 "技术基础",其自动驾驶技术是追加销售,也是要钱的。随着技术的改进,这一部分只会涨价,为特斯拉带来盈利机会。</p><p><i>营业利润</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5762e58f453a6f4c28ea1bdbc7fe1790\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度报告)</p><p>特斯拉报告显示,<b>每单位商品的销售成本同比增长,主要原因在于锂价格上涨以及奥斯汀和柏林工厂早期的效率不足。</b>车辆销售组合中,Model Y占成本大头,其制造成本比Model 3略高。总的来说,这些并非主要问题,随着生产规模的扩大,产能问题至少应该得到解决。</p><p>特斯拉坐拥221.85亿美元的现金和短期投资。此外,债务总额约为30亿美元,但<b>就盈利能力和良好的现金状况来看,债务风险属于可控范畴。</b></p><p><b>估值</b></p><p>为了对特斯拉进行估值,本文分析师将其最新的财务数据输入现金流折现估值模型中,预计 "明年"(即2023年)的营收增长率为25%,比之前超过37%的增长率慢。因此,考虑到需求下降和预料中的经济衰退,这一预测相当保守,下文 "风险 "部分会进一步探讨这一问题。</p><p><i>特斯拉估值</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ef8c296131d035fa35dd6f615fcceaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:本文分析师Deep Tech Insights)</p><p>为了提高估值模型的准确性,作者已经将研发费用资本化,提高了净利润。此外,<b>预计第2年至第5年的收入每年增长31%,因为电动车市场持续长期增长趋势有望继续。营业利润率预计将同比增长2%,同样相当保守,增长动力预计来自自动驾驶产品的追加销售和空中软件产品的改进。</b>特斯拉还在开发一个名为Optimus的仿真机器人,为其股票增加了吸引力。</p><p><i>特斯拉估值</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc4f8fed5034b6f59bd7d2d977661a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:本文作者Deep Tech Insights)</p><p>综上,<b>特斯拉的公允价值为251美元/股,撰写本文时,特斯拉的交易价格是166美元/股,也就是说,股价被低估了约44%。</b></p><p>本文分析师认为,受宏观经济和需求以及潜在竞争方面的不确定性(见风险部分)影响,<b>特斯拉目前的股价低于"公允价值"</b>。另外,<b>市场没有充分考虑到特斯拉股票在自动驾驶技术、机器人技术、制造创新和品牌方面的 "可选择性"。</b>本文预测相当保守,实际上只考虑到了核心汽车业务的增长。马斯克在推特方面的作为也可能对特斯拉的股票产生负面影响,因为大多数投资者希望马斯克给予特斯拉更多关注。</p><p>特斯拉以5.179倍的远期市净率进行交易,比五年平均水平低38%。特斯拉的市净率的确高于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和小鹏等中国电动车企,毕竟特斯拉规模更大,在全球的影响力也更大。特斯拉的估值也高于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>和福特等传统车企,不过特斯拉的利润率更高,增长速度也更快。</p><p><i>特斯拉与其他车企的市净率比较</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c46bbcf49ba0868402b101052c5cf7b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>风险经济衰退、竞争加剧</b></p><p>许多分析师预计2023年将出现经济衰退,本文分析师也预计,<b>包括特斯拉在内的所有车辆购买需求都会下降。</b>好消息是,<b>经济和汽车行业往往是周期性的,所以预计需求会反弹</b>。特斯拉还面临着来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>和小鹏等中国车企的激烈竞争,之前的文章已有提及。此外,福特F-150皮卡前几年一直是美国最畅销的汽车,福特正在推出电动版,可能会蚕食特斯拉的市场份额。</p><p><b>总结</b></p><p>尽管过去几年经济形势严峻,汽车巨头特斯拉仍再创佳绩。特斯拉还在继续提高其 "技术壁垒",不断创新。马斯克非常有才,能真正与公司融为一体。之前特斯拉股票遭大规模抛售,价值被低估,现在看来很<b>值得长期投资</b>。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉第四季度创佳绩,目前股价仍偏低?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉第四季度创佳绩,目前股价仍偏低?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-03 16:20 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/106135><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉是世界上最大的电动车制造商,而且拥有新兴的太阳能存储技术,未来可能发展机器人业务。2022年第四季度,特斯拉业绩强劲,营收和盈利增长均超预期,但根据本文分析师的估值模型,特斯拉的股票价值被低估了。全球最大的电动汽车制造商和科技巨头特斯拉最近公布了2022年第四季度财报,业绩喜人,尽管存在需求下滑的疑虑,但净利润与营收皆超预期。去年,特斯拉的股价从2021年11月的历史高点暴跌了72%,但自...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/106135\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340d3c04436bbba1df239d6d4a7e3fd2","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/106135","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123361742","content_text":"特斯拉是世界上最大的电动车制造商,而且拥有新兴的太阳能存储技术,未来可能发展机器人业务。2022年第四季度,特斯拉业绩强劲,营收和盈利增长均超预期,但根据本文分析师的估值模型,特斯拉的股票价值被低估了。全球最大的电动汽车制造商和科技巨头特斯拉最近公布了2022年第四季度财报,业绩喜人,尽管存在需求下滑的疑虑,但净利润与营收皆超预期。去年,特斯拉的股价从2021年11月的历史高点暴跌了72%,但自今年开始,其股价爆涨了48%。尽管出现了部分反弹,但估值模型表明,特斯拉的股票价值被低估了,毕竟特斯拉拥有许多竞争优势,例如,全自动驾驶技术和制造效率。本文将对特斯拉最近的财务状况进行分析,并深入研究采用的估值模型。特斯拉股价(来源:YCharts)财务业绩增长特斯拉2022年第四季度财务业绩强劲,营收达243.2亿美元,高出分析师预期1721万美元,同比增长37.24%,表现良好,虽然慢于前一季度55.49%的增长,但考虑到宏观经济环境,总体上仍然很稳健。下图显示,汽车行业近一个季度的收入增长几乎持平(平均),以前只有约19%的增长。标准普尔500指数的平均营收增长约位15%,明显低于特斯拉。由于特斯拉是标准普尔500指数的大头,其他汽车股和标普也拉低了这个平均数。特斯拉营收增长与汽车行业和标普500指数的营收增长比较(来源:特斯拉2022第四季度财报)将营收拆开来看,特斯拉监管信贷收入同比增长49%,达到4.67亿美元。美国政府的《通货膨胀削减法案》贡献了部分增长。该法案为使用美国制造电池的美国汽车提供了7500美元的电动车税收抵免计划,有助于提高特斯拉的性价比。应该注意的是,并非所有的特斯拉汽车都有资格获得税收减免。根据环保局的数据,Model Y被归类为 \"小型SUV\"。然而,美国国税局在对5座车型与7座车型的分类不同。因此,小型SUV或5座特斯拉的 \"制造商建议零售价\"[MSRP]价格上限为55,000美元,7座车型为80,000美元。撰写本文时,Model Y长续航版起价为52,990美元,特斯拉降价可能是为了不超过法案规定的55,000美元门槛而定的价,所以该车型是符合资格的。然而,Model Y高性能版起价约为56,990美元,因此可能 \"不符合条件\"。激励计划非常复杂,并且不断更新,因州而异。要获取更多信息的话,最好查看一下特斯拉官方的州名单和要求,以及美国国税局的细节。优惠条件也将在3月份再次发生变化,所以请继续留意。无论如何,本文的投资论点并非以税收抵免的程度为基础,特斯拉对此的依赖性已经降低。符合优惠条件的特斯拉车型(来源:特斯拉EPA)(来源:Verge税收优惠数据)由于气候变化备受关注,英美等躲过政府已经计划分别在2030年和2035年之前禁止石化燃料汽车的生产,为特斯拉创造了很好的条件。传统车企目前需要斥巨资对工厂设备进行转型,以符合大规模生产电动汽车的要求。特斯拉从成立之初就以垂直整合的方式专注于电动汽车制造,所以具有强大的先发者和技术优势。特斯拉营收(来源:特斯拉2022年第三季度财报)就车辆交付情况而言,特斯拉2022年第四季度总交付量为405278台,同比增长31%,创季度新高。车辆交付数(单位:百万台)(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度财报)车辆交付量增长主要由Model 3/Y驱动,交付数达388,131台,同比快速增长了31%。Model S/x也开始流行,交付量同比增长了46%,达到17147辆。特斯拉车辆交付(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度财报)特斯拉本季度生产量也很可观,达到439,701台,同比增长44%。马斯克以前说过,建造原型是 \"相对容易的\",扩大生产规模才是 \"难点\",所以说能实现目前的生产规模真是壮举。规模化生产存在许多挑战,从部件采购到质量控制,还要考虑成本效率和劳动力等因素。例如,一个零件的质量问题就会带来巨大的破坏和昂贵的产品召回。特斯拉在生产的 \"爬坡 \"阶段也遭遇过质量问题。特斯拉的生产也出现过问题,例如,受疫情影响,上海工厂出现了大规模生产延误。特斯拉的\"垂直整合 \"模式对公司具有积极意义,有助于提高供应链的可靠性并节省成本。比如,特斯拉之前已经购买了锂开采区的土地权,锂是电池制造的关键。在制造方面,特斯拉开创了独特的技术,如 \"Gigapress\",最大限度地减少了离散部件的数量,节省了更多焊接环节。这类创新会持续下去,传统车企也可能在电动车制造领域设法追赶。最近,特斯拉宣布斥36亿美元巨资投资内华达工厂。尽管特斯拉生产和交付量创下佳绩,但需求下降的迹象也很明显。去年12月,特斯拉减少了超级工厂工人的班次,推迟了上海的人才招聘。此外,报告显示,由于需求下滑,特斯拉在2023年1月降低了生产速度,此前,特斯拉已在中国降价。下图显示,特斯拉的全年生产增长率目标为47.2%,略低于管理层50%的目标。然而,2022年的交付量同比增长40.3%,远低于管理层的目标。可见,需求有所下降。但本文分析师认为,这类需求下降主要是由宏观经济环境和不确定性造成的,所以对特斯拉来说也不是太坏。此外,预计电动车市场仍将以22.5%的复合年增长率快速增长,到2030年可创造出1.1万亿美元的价值。特斯拉交付数量(注:基于特斯拉业绩公布前的初始交付数;来源:TroyTeslike)特斯拉的其他业务部门方面,报告显示,其部署的能源储存创新高,增长152%,达到2462兆瓦时。2022年全年,特斯拉已经部署了超过6.5GWh的储能,2021年时只有4GWH。特斯拉部署的太阳能也同比增长了18%,达到100MW。储能和太阳能屋顶目前并非特斯拉业务的大头,但总体潜在市场巨大。拜登此前提出计划,到2050年,太阳能将占美国整体能源的45%,相比之下,2021年只有3%。太阳能和风能都是稍纵即逝的,所以需要进行存储,才能确保长期稳定的电力供应。据估计,到2030年,全球储能市场将增长15倍。特斯拉储能量(单位:GWh)(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度财报)自动驾驶本文分析师估计,特斯拉掌握自动驾驶技术的几率比全球其他公司要高。因为大量已经上路的特斯拉车辆一直在 \"学习\"。例如,谷歌的Waymo2020年这一年间就完成了1000万英里的驾驶,而前10年所完成的历程也是1000万英里。听着挺震撼人心的,但Waymo在2021年只有约700辆注册车辆在路上行驶,远远落后于特斯拉。但从特斯拉最新的全自动驾驶测试计划来看,到2022年第四季度末,该项目已经积累了9000多万英里,远超Waymo。特斯拉的成功之处在于能与客户维持良好的关系。特斯拉司机会们都很乐意参与测试,并自愿进行功能测试。然而,如果传统车企试图想采取这种做法就很容易陷入困难,官司不断。特斯拉的全自动驾驶测试版在北美面向约40万客户推出。FSD Beta累计里程(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度财报)盈利能力与资产负债表特斯拉报告每股收益为1.07美元,比分析师的预期高出0.02美元。特斯拉过去的争议焦点在于,它到底是一家 \"汽车公司 \"还是技术公司呢?参考一下事实,特斯拉的大部分收入来自汽车销售,但其约17%的营业利润率却大大高于汽车行业8%的平均水平,虽然现在部分利润由垂直整合和制造能力驱动。特斯拉拥有强大的 \"技术基础\",其自动驾驶技术是追加销售,也是要钱的。随着技术的改进,这一部分只会涨价,为特斯拉带来盈利机会。营业利润(来源:特斯拉2022年第四季度报告)特斯拉报告显示,每单位商品的销售成本同比增长,主要原因在于锂价格上涨以及奥斯汀和柏林工厂早期的效率不足。车辆销售组合中,Model Y占成本大头,其制造成本比Model 3略高。总的来说,这些并非主要问题,随着生产规模的扩大,产能问题至少应该得到解决。特斯拉坐拥221.85亿美元的现金和短期投资。此外,债务总额约为30亿美元,但就盈利能力和良好的现金状况来看,债务风险属于可控范畴。估值为了对特斯拉进行估值,本文分析师将其最新的财务数据输入现金流折现估值模型中,预计 \"明年\"(即2023年)的营收增长率为25%,比之前超过37%的增长率慢。因此,考虑到需求下降和预料中的经济衰退,这一预测相当保守,下文 \"风险 \"部分会进一步探讨这一问题。特斯拉估值(来源:本文分析师Deep Tech Insights)为了提高估值模型的准确性,作者已经将研发费用资本化,提高了净利润。此外,预计第2年至第5年的收入每年增长31%,因为电动车市场持续长期增长趋势有望继续。营业利润率预计将同比增长2%,同样相当保守,增长动力预计来自自动驾驶产品的追加销售和空中软件产品的改进。特斯拉还在开发一个名为Optimus的仿真机器人,为其股票增加了吸引力。特斯拉估值(来源:本文作者Deep Tech Insights)综上,特斯拉的公允价值为251美元/股,撰写本文时,特斯拉的交易价格是166美元/股,也就是说,股价被低估了约44%。本文分析师认为,受宏观经济和需求以及潜在竞争方面的不确定性(见风险部分)影响,特斯拉目前的股价低于\"公允价值\"。另外,市场没有充分考虑到特斯拉股票在自动驾驶技术、机器人技术、制造创新和品牌方面的 \"可选择性\"。本文预测相当保守,实际上只考虑到了核心汽车业务的增长。马斯克在推特方面的作为也可能对特斯拉的股票产生负面影响,因为大多数投资者希望马斯克给予特斯拉更多关注。特斯拉以5.179倍的远期市净率进行交易,比五年平均水平低38%。特斯拉的市净率的确高于蔚来和小鹏等中国电动车企,毕竟特斯拉规模更大,在全球的影响力也更大。特斯拉的估值也高于通用汽车和福特等传统车企,不过特斯拉的利润率更高,增长速度也更快。特斯拉与其他车企的市净率比较风险经济衰退、竞争加剧许多分析师预计2023年将出现经济衰退,本文分析师也预计,包括特斯拉在内的所有车辆购买需求都会下降。好消息是,经济和汽车行业往往是周期性的,所以预计需求会反弹。特斯拉还面临着来自蔚来、比亚迪和小鹏等中国车企的激烈竞争,之前的文章已有提及。此外,福特F-150皮卡前几年一直是美国最畅销的汽车,福特正在推出电动版,可能会蚕食特斯拉的市场份额。总结尽管过去几年经济形势严峻,汽车巨头特斯拉仍再创佳绩。特斯拉还在继续提高其 \"技术壁垒\",不断创新。马斯克非常有才,能真正与公司融为一体。之前特斯拉股票遭大规模抛售,价值被低估,现在看来很值得长期投资。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833187797,"gmtCreate":1629210748019,"gmtModify":1629251279976,"author":{"id":"3568971086778703","authorId":"3568971086778703","name":"ych_3610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b47a32a2fed285997025f71b0f2b2217","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568971086778703","authorIdStr":"3568971086778703"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>肯定有些吊机构在做空,tm能跌到这里,不讲逻辑完全跌的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>肯定有些吊机构在做空,tm能跌到这里,不讲逻辑完全跌的。","text":"$腾讯音乐(TME)$肯定有些吊机构在做空,tm能跌到这里,不讲逻辑完全跌的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833187797","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}