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792ecb00

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2022-03-13

好文

好文分享 | 如何找到适合自己的投资体系？

2022-03-13

不错

@老虎专刊:【老虎周刊】老虎社区一周十大精华文章

2021-09-10

$东方海外国际(00316)$这次配售股份多久才可以卖掉的？

2021-02-04

$星巴克(SBUX)$快手上市哔哩哔哩猛涨，那喜茶上市是不是星巴克要猛涨！所以小伙伴们懂我意思了吧！

2021-02-02

天下乌鸦一般黑，不过我喜欢乌鸦[开心] 看腾讯帮我赚多少钱

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-29

$美团-W(03690)$跌到一百吧，让我有机会抄底

2020-12-29

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$现在买入阿里巴巴的人，并不傻，你细品！

2020-12-29

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zH7zfITfHCAmOj9sdXCi-A

2020-11-27

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$又来做空，左一巴掌打的不够响，右一巴掌打响一点！

2020-11-26

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$当时听我的258附近就大胆买，现在不就爽了吗？

2020-11-17

$蛋壳公寓(DNK)$刺激啊

2020-11-12

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 拼多多都涨疯了，老马，你咋想的？

2020-11-11

没想到真能等到258的价格，感谢老马！

@792ecb00:$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 我能等到258的价格加仓吗？马总，如果不能你在发表一次演讲如何？

2020-11-11

$Teladoc Inc(TDOC)$女股神三支基金都加仓，还是连续加仓！看来稳了！

2020-11-07

$苹果(AAPL)$真香系列！

2020-11-06

$Slack Technologies(WORK)$女股神这次加仓有点重嘛？直接加仓81万多股！

2020-11-05

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 我能等到258的价格加仓吗？马总，如果不能你在发表一次演讲如何？

2020-11-05

$维珍银河(SPCE)$ARK已经提前建仓埋伏了！

2020-11-05

$亚马逊(AMZN)$跌破三千就果断加仓，听了我的不就赚回来了吗？[微笑]

2020-11-04

$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$ARW基金里分别在KF KK和KW三个基金里都加仓了一只PYPL这只股，目前仓位还没有fsly仓位多，可见这两只股都是她的长线股！关注我，看ARK主动性基金如何调仓换股！

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对自身的定位要准确</p><p>做任何事情之前，我认为一定要先清楚自己的定位，明白自己的优势和劣势，尽量发挥自己的优势，回避自己的劣势。</p><p><b>杨绛先生说过这样一段话：无论人生上到哪一层台阶，阶下有人仰望你，阶上也有人在俯视你，你抬头自卑、低头自得，唯有平视才能看见真正的自己。</b></p><p>我们人类很容易被外界情绪感染，大多数时候也很容易高估自己，如果我们只是朝九晚五的工作，可能影响并不大，但在投资上如果不能正视自己，造成的结果就是，经常期望于赚自己能力以外的钱。</p><p>那我们有哪些优势和劣势呢？</p><p>大方向来说，对于我们个人投资者，优势是没有业绩压力，不用去和别人比赛，我们完全可以慢慢布局一些低估的企业，不用想着时时刻刻战胜别人，不用为了短期业绩不掉队，去干一些高风险的事，这其实可以大大降低我们的投资难度。</p><p>我们的劣势是获取信息的渠道较少，没有专业的团队，想去和机构拼消息的速度深度以及消息的反应能力，不是很容易，在自己劣势的区域战胜别人太难。</p><p><b>所以我的体系是不做短线，无论炒题材追热点是否可行，作为个人投资者我的精力是有限的，也没能力获得比别人更快更准确的信息。</b></p><p><b>我比较喜欢在别人唾弃的企业中找机会，因为不用和别人比拼业绩，有时间等市场认知转变，而不是为了年底排名去执着于寻找当前热点。</b></p><p><b>投资这件事别老执着于去找市场明天、下个周喜欢什么，时间越短越难预测，预测越多越易出错。</b></p><p>进一步，我对自己的定位，生活在一个小城市，学习普通，家境普通，见过的市面普通，努力和勤奋普通，活了几十年小范围内没有一件事能做到顶尖，基本可以认定我就是一个普通人。</p><p>作为一个普通人，在漫长的投资生涯中不犯错也是不可能的，所以我的体系出发点，就是自己一定会犯错。</p><p>那么怎么尽量减少犯错的影响呢？</p><p><b>首先就是适当分散，让自己不至于犯一次大错就彻底离场。</b></p><p><b>其次呢就是尽量买的便宜，留下足够宽的安全边际，任何一笔交易先去想最坏的结果，最坏的结果可以接受的情况下才考虑可能带来的收益。</b></p><p>当然追求买的足够便宜，一定会错过很多机会，但我认为这不重要，因为我们个人投资者的资金量，大多都是7~8位数，其实也并不需要那么多机会，每一两年能捡到一个极度低估的机会足以。</p><p>真正的成熟不是盲目的追求完美，而是直面自己的缺憾，每个人都有自己的缺点，在投资中扬长避短就好。</p><p>02 保持一个好心态</p><p>我们常听一句话「心态崩了」，一个人在心态失衡的时候是很难做出理性的决策的，一个不理性的决策，期望他能带来好结果，那也只能等待幸运女神眷顾了。</p><p>对于保持好心态，有以下几点：</p><p>01 别把投资当成一个比赛，无论什么体系，都不可能适合所有时期的市场，阶段性的慢很正常，自己快的时候不要得意忘形，别人快的时候不要轻易诋毁。</p><p>最近看到一些今年业绩不好的大V的发言，话里话外的意思，虽然今年自己慢但是走的是正道，那些今年赚钱多的人也迟早要亏回去。</p><p>其实完全没必要，这个世界上不仅仅有一种投资方法，我们可以不选择，但要允许别人选择，不该上升到道德绑架的层面。</p><p>02 我不会把所有资产集中在一个行业或一家企业，因为一旦所有资产押注在一个行业或一家企业，首先压力会很大，压力大的情况下决策失误的概率就会大大提高。</p><p>并且当大部分身家都压在一只股票上，名声、财富都和他捆绑到了一起，就很容易被蒙蔽双眼，容易屁股决定脑袋，听不得反对意见，忽略企业不好的消息。</p><p>甚至有时候即使看对了，也可能某一两年这家企业就是不受待见，这个时候是很难熬的，看着指数不停涨自己不赚钱，就很容易变成怨妇。</p><p>所以我的体系中一般都是3-5个主要持仓并且在不同行业。</p><p>03 我一般是左侧逐步建仓，价格到了我可以接受的范围我就会先买一些，如果股价继续下跌给了更高的概率和赔率，我会选择加大仓位。</p><p><b>为什么分批买，为的是让自己进退有据，涨了赚钱，跌了赚股票。当然这是在自己对企业商业模式判断准确的前提下。</b></p><p>如果想等到一个极端低的价格才开始买，有很大的可能错过，一旦一家企业你看好但没有买，他却上涨了10%，20%，这个时候就会非常影响心态，即使他依然便宜，也会不甘心，最终可能导致错过。</p><p>04对于一些短期涨幅过大的企业我会适当降低一些仓位，实际上当一家企业股价的涨幅远远超过业绩的涨幅时，这笔投资成功的概率和赔率就会下降，我认为适当降低一些仓位也是应该的。</p><p>总的来说为了能保持好心态，哪怕是降低一些收益都是值得的，因为人真的很难在心态失衡的情况下做出好的决策。</p><p>03 明白自己选择的概率</p><p>小概率的事可以靠运气对一次，对两次，但一件事情长期做，一定会面对大概率的结果。</p><p>这事只做一次，有可能出现小概率的结果，这事要做一生，不可能每次都是小概率的幸运发生在自己身上。</p><p>所以在股市我们一定要坚定的选择大概率成功的机会去投资。</p><p>去追高70、80甚至上百PE，却没什么业绩增长的企业，去买那些你根本看不懂逻辑的股票，去追各种题材，可能这一次幸运，但是不可能一直幸运。</p><p><b>股市的残酷在于，幸运一次往往不够，幸运一生又不可能。</b></p><p>04 分清错过和做错</p><p>错过没什么可怕的，这个市场几十个行业，几千家企业，我们不可能做到每家都了如指掌，你觉得高估他又涨了，你觉得不是好的商业模式但他却越来越优秀，这都很正常。</p><p>这个市场有人赚趋势的钱有人赚价值的钱，你不可能全都赚了，即使赚价值的钱，也一定有我们看不懂的价值。</p><p>投资中错过了很多机会无非是少赚钱甚至不赚钱，但是反复做错就会迫使你离开这个市场。</p><p><b>错过不是你的错，做错才是你的错。</b></p><p>如前文所说，对于个人投资者一两年能找到一家好企业足以，我们并不需要那么多机会，更何况在我们能力圈以外的也谈不上是机会。</p><p>05 在自己的能力圈内投资</p><p>投资有点像考试，你要不断的决策不断的判断，只有你持续作对才能持续得分。</p><p>但投资也有和考试不一样的地方，黑白给他取名为「自助考试」，就像我们吃自助餐一样，你可以去选自己喜欢的题。只要你足够理性只选自己会做的题，就足够战胜市场。哪怕只是定投沪深300也可以获得不错的收益。</p><p>大多数人在股市失败都是因为贪婪，总想从自己的能力圈以外找机会。</p><p>芒格说：得到一件东西的最好方式，就是让自己配得上它。</p><p>06 可复制的才是有意义的</p><p>为什么要在自己的能力圈内投资，为什么要有自己的投资体系？</p><p>因为可复制的才是有意义的，股市的赔率实际上并没有我们想象的高，靠运气、打探消息，真的对了一次来个翻倍无非几十万变成100万。</p><p>如果方法不可复制，最终对对错错，这些钱还是要亏回去，流水不争先，争的是滔滔不绝，只有坚持在自己能力圈内投资，有稳定的投资体系，才能保证一个较高的胜率，慢慢累积复利。</p><p>07 避免毫无意义的尝试</p><p>打探消息，或者问别人能不能买，这样投资，对了下次很难复制，错了也没办法吸取教训。</p><p>投资这事的难点在于，经常得不到正确的反馈，有时候一个错误的决策赚钱了，有时候一个正确的决策短期反而带来了损失。</p><p>如果投资的决策不是出自个人的思考，就会被短期的答案蒙蔽双眼走向错误的路。</p><p>投资体系是不可能一下就建成的，别人口中的方法和经验，如果自己不实践很难知道是否适合。</p><p>投资前期犯错并不可怕，首先刚入市本金少，其次没人能进入一个新领域不犯错，我们不能因为怕犯错就放弃自己思考自己决策，只有自己努力去做，才能在正确中总结经验，在错误中吸取教训，体系才可能越来越完善。</p><p>08 不做不合理的事，但要学会接受不合理</p><p>市场总有不理性的时候，股市经常有这样一种情况，自己的持仓大涨甚至高估就觉得理所当然。</p><p>如果是自己持有的企业没涨，别的企业大涨后估值偏高就冷嘲热讽，其实这毫无意义。</p><p>正因为市场不是时刻理性的，理性的投资者才有捡便宜的机会，我们既然享受了市场不理性时捡便宜的机会，就要理解市场不理性带来的局部高估。</p><p>投资这事，不嫉妒别人，努力做好自己。</p><p>09 懂得逆向思维，不要期望从一致看好中寻找机会</p><p>一家企业人人都看好，意味着这个市场绝大多数的参与者都买入了这家企业，这个时候他的定价往往是超过价值的。</p><p>相反一家企业充满分歧，甚至被一直看空的时候，反而有可能成为我们的好机会，一家企业人人都觉得他是垃圾，市场也给了他是垃圾的定价，但你发现他其实还有可以利用的地方，这个时候去买，最差的结果无非是按垃圾的定价买了垃圾，不会亏大钱，相反如果你的看法是正确的，就可能成为一笔非常优秀的投资。</p><p>但从众是我们人类的天性，一家企业人人都说好我们也附和也兴奋，别人都说垃圾的企业我们就嗤之以鼻。</p><p>但实际上在一个70%的人都亏钱的地方，跟随大多数人做选择，自然也很容易获得和大多数人一样的结果。</p><p>所以对于投资格雷厄姆说过：第一正确思考，第二独立思考</p><p>巴菲特说过：别人恐惧我贪婪，别人贪婪我恐惧。</p><p>芒格说过：反过来想，总是反过来想。</p><p>10 任何交易之前，先考虑最差的情况</p><p>我们亏钱的主要原因，往往是只想到了好的结果，却没考虑对应的风险。</p><p>甚至很多时候我们盲目追高买入，只想小概率的好结果，不想大概率的坏结果，然而在这个市场只做大概率成功的事才是生存下来的奥秘。</p><p>投资中我们犯的第一次错可能是运气不好，可能因为意外，但当你一边谩骂止损，一边又盲目进行下一次交易，这已经不是意外，而是你的选择。</p><p>11 学会聆听不同的意见</p><p>面对一个投资机会时，相同的观点顶多是给我们打气助威，不同的观点才能给我们带来更多思考，帮我们找到这笔交易的漏洞。</p><p>如果一家被大众一致唾弃的企业，所有看空的观点你都能有理有据的反驳，这大概率是个好机会</p><p>12 学会承担责任</p><p>如果我们永远把交易错误的原因归咎于市场、公司、证监会，或者不该听某某人的意见，我们就永远都不可能成长。</p><p>大环境是赛道，个人体系是赛车，赛道每个人面对的都一样，一个赛车手想取得好成绩，改进赛车才是我们努力的方向，而不是要求主办方按自己的想法去建赛道。</p><p>这个市场好或不好，是否有缺陷，都有人持续从这个市场赚钱，如果觉得这个市场完全就是个骗局或者无药可救，最好的选择是离开，而不是一边谩骂一边沉迷其中。</p><p>有一句话我觉得非常好：不妨先做出点成绩，然后再去强调你的感受，不然在别人眼中你就只会叽叽哇哇，怎么看都是矫情。</p><p>英国圣公会主教墓碑上的一段话：</p><blockquote>当我年轻自由的时候我的想象力没有受到任何局限，我梦想改变这个世界。</blockquote><blockquote>当我渐渐成熟明智的时候 我发现这个世界是不可能被改变的。</blockquote><blockquote>于是我将眼光放的短浅了一些 那就只改变我的国家吧 但是我的国家似乎也是我无法改变的。</blockquote><blockquote>当我到了迟暮之年 抱着一丝努力的希望，我决定只改变我的家庭，我亲近的人。</blockquote><blockquote>但是 他们根本不接受改变</blockquote><blockquote>现在 在我临终之际 我才忽然意识到</blockquote><blockquote>如果最初我只改变我自己，接着 我就可以依次改变我的家人</blockquote><blockquote>然后在他们的激励和鼓励下，我也许就能改变我的国家</blockquote><blockquote>在接下来，谁又知道呢？</blockquote><blockquote>也许我连整个世界都可以改变</blockquote><p>如果我们想要改变世界之前想到的是先改变自己，也许事情就没那么难了。</p><p>13 我们永远赚不到认知以外的钱</p><p>开始写分享以后收到最多的提问，就是：老师某某股票可以买吗？</p><p>实际上当你把决策交给别人的时候，这笔交易就很难成功了，再好的企业如果自己看不懂逻辑都没意义，涨了十倍的茅台中间也会有无数下跌的时候，大部分企业经营也不会永远一帆风顺，如果你不是真心认可，不可能面对长涨跌耐心持有很多年。</p><p>只是因为别人喜欢买入，最后的结果一定是涨一点担心回撤拿不住，跌了担心别人的意见不可靠很恐慌。</p><p>14 难走的路往往越走越好走，好走的路往往越走越艰难</p><p>付出和收获一定是成正比的，这个世界上没有既简单又能赚大钱的方法，即使有，因为过于简单，也会因为无数新进入的参与者把他的收益降低。</p><p>想在股市赚钱，必须付出对应的努力，如果这事简单到打听消息，随便看看K线，追追热点就能做到，不会有70%的人都亏钱。</p><p>别人选择了安逸，你选择了奋斗，你就必须要比别人更努力，你不能一边期望将来比选择安逸的人过的更好，现在又想和选择安逸的人一样舒服。</p><p>一旦选择了投资这条路，不断学习这件事是不可能逃避的。</p><p>美国心理学家威廉·詹姆士说：「播下一个行为，收获一种习惯；播下一种习惯，收获一种性格；播下一种性格，收获一种命运。</p><p>比如阅读，同样的时间拿来追剧一定更舒服，并且有时候即使看了一两天书也没啥大改变，最终就放弃了，但实际上好的习惯都是在将来能给我们带来收益，而坏习惯总是马上能让我们得到快乐。</p><p>好习惯的养成需要持之以恒的努力，虽然短期内效果并不是那么明显，但是只要你坚持下去，每天进步一点点，最终会超越自己，实现不可能。</p><p>坏的习惯每天让我们沉迷于当下的快乐，每次都想着明天开始，转眼一看一年就这么过去了。</p><p>15 这不是一条快的路</p><p></p><p>股市很难赚快钱，因为他的赔率不足够高，买彩票可以几千中500万，在股市不行。</p><p>在股市靠承担高风险换取高回报，不足以一次解决问题，保持长期对就必须要降低风险偏好，这就意味着不可能持续有很高的收益。</p><p>我们不能盲目的觉得前30~40年造成的生活现状，进入股市分分钟就解决了，这是一条必须脚踏实地一步步认真走好的路。</p><p>所以先走好脚下的每一步，不要为了100公里外的美景忘记脚下的风险。</p><p>很多人愿意用6年时间寻找直接上6年级的方法，却不愿意从一年级开始耐心学6年。</p><p>16 投资是为了生活更好，不是为了拿现在的生活搏一把</p><p>每当你想搏一搏单车变摩托的时候，请理性一些。</p><p>如果你拿了3万5万博也没意义，几年几百倍的收益有这样的传说，他为什么是传说，14亿人就出了一个，稀有到极致才叫传说。与其奢望自己是天选之子，不如稳定理财赚点零花钱。</p><p>如果你拿了几十万，几百万，你已经小有积蓄足够幸福了，想想现在的生活，有收入，有积蓄，切莫因为一时的贪婪毁了现在的美好。</p><p>有时候小人物，小欲望，小满足何尝不是大幸福呢。</p><p>写到这，基本上想说的都写得差不多了，总之如果是在认真做投资这件事，不骄不躁，认清自己，勇于承担责任，并逐步建立适合自己性格的体系，我认为是必须的。</p><p>如果只是想在股市随便玩玩，也没什么大不了，但是切莫因为贪婪毁掉现在的生活，人生的苦，往往源自盲目的执着，总想去得到自己能力以外的东西，人生的难，难在放下，一旦放下超出自己能力的欲望，生活就会变的容易。</p><p>人生如海，祝你有帆有岸。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1641782613268","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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}\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n好文分享 | 如何找到适合自己的投资体系？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-12 08:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oH0YJFmpFs0nKqDSR_J_Ag><strong>终身黑白</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>巴菲特说过：投资并不需要顶级的智商，超凡的商业头脑，而需要一个稳妥的思考框架作为决策的基础，最重要的是有能力控制自己的情绪。所谓的思考框架和决策的基础，就是一个人的投资体系。体系没有好坏之分，大前提是要适合自己。对自身的定位要准确，明白自己的优势和劣势，尽量发挥自己的优势，回避自己的劣势。然后保持一个好心态，哪怕是降低一些收益都是值得的。性格合适并且有一个良好的心态外加学习一定的知识，我认为就足以...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oH0YJFmpFs0nKqDSR_J_Ag\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oH0YJFmpFs0nKqDSR_J_Ag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184494861","content_text":"巴菲特说过：投资并不需要顶级的智商，超凡的商业头脑，而需要一个稳妥的思考框架作为决策的基础，最重要的是有能力控制自己的情绪。所谓的思考框架和决策的基础，就是一个人的投资体系。体系没有好坏之分，大前提是要适合自己。对自身的定位要准确，明白自己的优势和劣势，尽量发挥自己的优势，回避自己的劣势。然后保持一个好心态，哪怕是降低一些收益都是值得的。性格合适并且有一个良好的心态外加学习一定的知识，我认为就足以获得一份不错的投资收益。但如果只是拥有知识，没有良好的心态和合适的性格其实是很难做好投资的。巴菲特说过：投资并不需要顶级的智商，超凡的商业头脑，而需要一个稳妥的思考框架作为决策的基础，最重要的是有能力控制自己的情绪。所谓的思考框架和决策的基础，就是一个人的投资体系。先说一下我对体系的看法，经常看到有人为了交易体系争的面红耳赤，首先我认为体系一定要结合自身的情况，适合自己才最重要，每个人的风险偏好、收益预期，性格都不一样，放弃自身情况，单纯去讨论哪种方法最好没有意义。这就好比职业运动员也会各有各的特点，1米6的球员和1米9的高中锋去争论头球是不是好的进攻方式没意义，因为他们的基础条件就不一样。所以体系我认为没有好坏之分，适合自己是前提。有三个关键词，能赚钱，足够稳，可复制，先做到这三点再去尝试优化自己的体系。01 对自身的定位要准确做任何事情之前，我认为一定要先清楚自己的定位，明白自己的优势和劣势，尽量发挥自己的优势，回避自己的劣势。杨绛先生说过这样一段话：无论人生上到哪一层台阶，阶下有人仰望你，阶上也有人在俯视你，你抬头自卑、低头自得，唯有平视才能看见真正的自己。我们人类很容易被外界情绪感染，大多数时候也很容易高估自己，如果我们只是朝九晚五的工作，可能影响并不大，但在投资上如果不能正视自己，造成的结果就是，经常期望于赚自己能力以外的钱。那我们有哪些优势和劣势呢？大方向来说，对于我们个人投资者，优势是没有业绩压力，不用去和别人比赛，我们完全可以慢慢布局一些低估的企业，不用想着时时刻刻战胜别人，不用为了短期业绩不掉队，去干一些高风险的事，这其实可以大大降低我们的投资难度。我们的劣势是获取信息的渠道较少，没有专业的团队，想去和机构拼消息的速度深度以及消息的反应能力，不是很容易，在自己劣势的区域战胜别人太难。所以我的体系是不做短线，无论炒题材追热点是否可行，作为个人投资者我的精力是有限的，也没能力获得比别人更快更准确的信息。我比较喜欢在别人唾弃的企业中找机会，因为不用和别人比拼业绩，有时间等市场认知转变，而不是为了年底排名去执着于寻找当前热点。投资这件事别老执着于去找市场明天、下个周喜欢什么，时间越短越难预测，预测越多越易出错。进一步，我对自己的定位，生活在一个小城市，学习普通，家境普通，见过的市面普通，努力和勤奋普通，活了几十年小范围内没有一件事能做到顶尖，基本可以认定我就是一个普通人。作为一个普通人，在漫长的投资生涯中不犯错也是不可能的，所以我的体系出发点，就是自己一定会犯错。那么怎么尽量减少犯错的影响呢？首先就是适当分散，让自己不至于犯一次大错就彻底离场。其次呢就是尽量买的便宜，留下足够宽的安全边际，任何一笔交易先去想最坏的结果，最坏的结果可以接受的情况下才考虑可能带来的收益。当然追求买的足够便宜，一定会错过很多机会，但我认为这不重要，因为我们个人投资者的资金量，大多都是7~8位数，其实也并不需要那么多机会，每一两年能捡到一个极度低估的机会足以。真正的成熟不是盲目的追求完美，而是直面自己的缺憾，每个人都有自己的缺点，在投资中扬长避短就好。02 保持一个好心态我们常听一句话「心态崩了」，一个人在心态失衡的时候是很难做出理性的决策的，一个不理性的决策，期望他能带来好结果，那也只能等待幸运女神眷顾了。对于保持好心态，有以下几点：01 别把投资当成一个比赛，无论什么体系，都不可能适合所有时期的市场，阶段性的慢很正常，自己快的时候不要得意忘形，别人快的时候不要轻易诋毁。最近看到一些今年业绩不好的大V的发言，话里话外的意思，虽然今年自己慢但是走的是正道，那些今年赚钱多的人也迟早要亏回去。其实完全没必要，这个世界上不仅仅有一种投资方法，我们可以不选择，但要允许别人选择，不该上升到道德绑架的层面。02 我不会把所有资产集中在一个行业或一家企业，因为一旦所有资产押注在一个行业或一家企业，首先压力会很大，压力大的情况下决策失误的概率就会大大提高。并且当大部分身家都压在一只股票上，名声、财富都和他捆绑到了一起，就很容易被蒙蔽双眼，容易屁股决定脑袋，听不得反对意见，忽略企业不好的消息。甚至有时候即使看对了，也可能某一两年这家企业就是不受待见，这个时候是很难熬的，看着指数不停涨自己不赚钱，就很容易变成怨妇。所以我的体系中一般都是3-5个主要持仓并且在不同行业。03 我一般是左侧逐步建仓，价格到了我可以接受的范围我就会先买一些，如果股价继续下跌给了更高的概率和赔率，我会选择加大仓位。为什么分批买，为的是让自己进退有据，涨了赚钱，跌了赚股票。当然这是在自己对企业商业模式判断准确的前提下。如果想等到一个极端低的价格才开始买，有很大的可能错过，一旦一家企业你看好但没有买，他却上涨了10%，20%，这个时候就会非常影响心态，即使他依然便宜，也会不甘心，最终可能导致错过。04对于一些短期涨幅过大的企业我会适当降低一些仓位，实际上当一家企业股价的涨幅远远超过业绩的涨幅时，这笔投资成功的概率和赔率就会下降，我认为适当降低一些仓位也是应该的。总的来说为了能保持好心态，哪怕是降低一些收益都是值得的，因为人真的很难在心态失衡的情况下做出好的决策。03 明白自己选择的概率小概率的事可以靠运气对一次，对两次，但一件事情长期做，一定会面对大概率的结果。这事只做一次，有可能出现小概率的结果，这事要做一生，不可能每次都是小概率的幸运发生在自己身上。所以在股市我们一定要坚定的选择大概率成功的机会去投资。去追高70、80甚至上百PE，却没什么业绩增长的企业，去买那些你根本看不懂逻辑的股票，去追各种题材，可能这一次幸运，但是不可能一直幸运。股市的残酷在于，幸运一次往往不够，幸运一生又不可能。04 分清错过和做错错过没什么可怕的，这个市场几十个行业，几千家企业，我们不可能做到每家都了如指掌，你觉得高估他又涨了，你觉得不是好的商业模式但他却越来越优秀，这都很正常。这个市场有人赚趋势的钱有人赚价值的钱，你不可能全都赚了，即使赚价值的钱，也一定有我们看不懂的价值。投资中错过了很多机会无非是少赚钱甚至不赚钱，但是反复做错就会迫使你离开这个市场。错过不是你的错，做错才是你的错。如前文所说，对于个人投资者一两年能找到一家好企业足以，我们并不需要那么多机会，更何况在我们能力圈以外的也谈不上是机会。05 在自己的能力圈内投资投资有点像考试，你要不断的决策不断的判断，只有你持续作对才能持续得分。但投资也有和考试不一样的地方，黑白给他取名为「自助考试」，就像我们吃自助餐一样，你可以去选自己喜欢的题。只要你足够理性只选自己会做的题，就足够战胜市场。哪怕只是定投沪深300也可以获得不错的收益。大多数人在股市失败都是因为贪婪，总想从自己的能力圈以外找机会。芒格说：得到一件东西的最好方式，就是让自己配得上它。06 可复制的才是有意义的为什么要在自己的能力圈内投资，为什么要有自己的投资体系？因为可复制的才是有意义的，股市的赔率实际上并没有我们想象的高，靠运气、打探消息，真的对了一次来个翻倍无非几十万变成100万。如果方法不可复制，最终对对错错，这些钱还是要亏回去，流水不争先，争的是滔滔不绝，只有坚持在自己能力圈内投资，有稳定的投资体系，才能保证一个较高的胜率，慢慢累积复利。07 避免毫无意义的尝试打探消息，或者问别人能不能买，这样投资，对了下次很难复制，错了也没办法吸取教训。投资这事的难点在于，经常得不到正确的反馈，有时候一个错误的决策赚钱了，有时候一个正确的决策短期反而带来了损失。如果投资的决策不是出自个人的思考，就会被短期的答案蒙蔽双眼走向错误的路。投资体系是不可能一下就建成的，别人口中的方法和经验，如果自己不实践很难知道是否适合。投资前期犯错并不可怕，首先刚入市本金少，其次没人能进入一个新领域不犯错，我们不能因为怕犯错就放弃自己思考自己决策，只有自己努力去做，才能在正确中总结经验，在错误中吸取教训，体系才可能越来越完善。08 不做不合理的事，但要学会接受不合理市场总有不理性的时候，股市经常有这样一种情况，自己的持仓大涨甚至高估就觉得理所当然。如果是自己持有的企业没涨，别的企业大涨后估值偏高就冷嘲热讽，其实这毫无意义。正因为市场不是时刻理性的，理性的投资者才有捡便宜的机会，我们既然享受了市场不理性时捡便宜的机会，就要理解市场不理性带来的局部高估。投资这事，不嫉妒别人，努力做好自己。09 懂得逆向思维，不要期望从一致看好中寻找机会一家企业人人都看好，意味着这个市场绝大多数的参与者都买入了这家企业，这个时候他的定价往往是超过价值的。相反一家企业充满分歧，甚至被一直看空的时候，反而有可能成为我们的好机会，一家企业人人都觉得他是垃圾，市场也给了他是垃圾的定价，但你发现他其实还有可以利用的地方，这个时候去买，最差的结果无非是按垃圾的定价买了垃圾，不会亏大钱，相反如果你的看法是正确的，就可能成为一笔非常优秀的投资。但从众是我们人类的天性，一家企业人人都说好我们也附和也兴奋，别人都说垃圾的企业我们就嗤之以鼻。但实际上在一个70%的人都亏钱的地方，跟随大多数人做选择，自然也很容易获得和大多数人一样的结果。所以对于投资格雷厄姆说过：第一正确思考，第二独立思考巴菲特说过：别人恐惧我贪婪，别人贪婪我恐惧。芒格说过：反过来想，总是反过来想。10 任何交易之前，先考虑最差的情况我们亏钱的主要原因，往往是只想到了好的结果，却没考虑对应的风险。甚至很多时候我们盲目追高买入，只想小概率的好结果，不想大概率的坏结果，然而在这个市场只做大概率成功的事才是生存下来的奥秘。投资中我们犯的第一次错可能是运气不好，可能因为意外，但当你一边谩骂止损，一边又盲目进行下一次交易，这已经不是意外，而是你的选择。11 学会聆听不同的意见面对一个投资机会时，相同的观点顶多是给我们打气助威，不同的观点才能给我们带来更多思考，帮我们找到这笔交易的漏洞。如果一家被大众一致唾弃的企业，所有看空的观点你都能有理有据的反驳，这大概率是个好机会12 学会承担责任如果我们永远把交易错误的原因归咎于市场、公司、证监会，或者不该听某某人的意见，我们就永远都不可能成长。大环境是赛道，个人体系是赛车，赛道每个人面对的都一样，一个赛车手想取得好成绩，改进赛车才是我们努力的方向，而不是要求主办方按自己的想法去建赛道。这个市场好或不好，是否有缺陷，都有人持续从这个市场赚钱，如果觉得这个市场完全就是个骗局或者无药可救，最好的选择是离开，而不是一边谩骂一边沉迷其中。有一句话我觉得非常好：不妨先做出点成绩，然后再去强调你的感受，不然在别人眼中你就只会叽叽哇哇，怎么看都是矫情。英国圣公会主教墓碑上的一段话：当我年轻自由的时候我的想象力没有受到任何局限，我梦想改变这个世界。当我渐渐成熟明智的时候 我发现这个世界是不可能被改变的。于是我将眼光放的短浅了一些 那就只改变我的国家吧 但是我的国家似乎也是我无法改变的。当我到了迟暮之年 抱着一丝努力的希望，我决定只改变我的家庭，我亲近的人。但是 他们根本不接受改变现在 在我临终之际 我才忽然意识到如果最初我只改变我自己，接着 我就可以依次改变我的家人然后在他们的激励和鼓励下，我也许就能改变我的国家在接下来，谁又知道呢？也许我连整个世界都可以改变如果我们想要改变世界之前想到的是先改变自己，也许事情就没那么难了。13 我们永远赚不到认知以外的钱开始写分享以后收到最多的提问，就是：老师某某股票可以买吗？实际上当你把决策交给别人的时候，这笔交易就很难成功了，再好的企业如果自己看不懂逻辑都没意义，涨了十倍的茅台中间也会有无数下跌的时候，大部分企业经营也不会永远一帆风顺，如果你不是真心认可，不可能面对长涨跌耐心持有很多年。只是因为别人喜欢买入，最后的结果一定是涨一点担心回撤拿不住，跌了担心别人的意见不可靠很恐慌。14 难走的路往往越走越好走，好走的路往往越走越艰难付出和收获一定是成正比的，这个世界上没有既简单又能赚大钱的方法，即使有，因为过于简单，也会因为无数新进入的参与者把他的收益降低。想在股市赚钱，必须付出对应的努力，如果这事简单到打听消息，随便看看K线，追追热点就能做到，不会有70%的人都亏钱。别人选择了安逸，你选择了奋斗，你就必须要比别人更努力，你不能一边期望将来比选择安逸的人过的更好，现在又想和选择安逸的人一样舒服。一旦选择了投资这条路，不断学习这件事是不可能逃避的。美国心理学家威廉·詹姆士说：「播下一个行为，收获一种习惯；播下一种习惯，收获一种性格；播下一种性格，收获一种命运。比如阅读，同样的时间拿来追剧一定更舒服，并且有时候即使看了一两天书也没啥大改变，最终就放弃了，但实际上好的习惯都是在将来能给我们带来收益，而坏习惯总是马上能让我们得到快乐。好习惯的养成需要持之以恒的努力，虽然短期内效果并不是那么明显，但是只要你坚持下去，每天进步一点点，最终会超越自己，实现不可能。坏的习惯每天让我们沉迷于当下的快乐，每次都想着明天开始，转眼一看一年就这么过去了。15 这不是一条快的路股市很难赚快钱，因为他的赔率不足够高，买彩票可以几千中500万，在股市不行。在股市靠承担高风险换取高回报，不足以一次解决问题，保持长期对就必须要降低风险偏好，这就意味着不可能持续有很高的收益。我们不能盲目的觉得前30~40年造成的生活现状，进入股市分分钟就解决了，这是一条必须脚踏实地一步步认真走好的路。所以先走好脚下的每一步，不要为了100公里外的美景忘记脚下的风险。很多人愿意用6年时间寻找直接上6年级的方法，却不愿意从一年级开始耐心学6年。16 投资是为了生活更好，不是为了拿现在的生活搏一把每当你想搏一搏单车变摩托的时候，请理性一些。如果你拿了3万5万博也没意义，几年几百倍的收益有这样的传说，他为什么是传说，14亿人就出了一个，稀有到极致才叫传说。与其奢望自己是天选之子，不如稳定理财赚点零花钱。如果你拿了几十万，几百万，你已经小有积蓄足够幸福了，想想现在的生活，有收入，有积蓄，切莫因为一时的贪婪毁了现在的美好。有时候小人物，小欲望，小满足何尝不是大幸福呢。写到这，基本上想说的都写得差不多了，总之如果是在认真做投资这件事，不骄不躁，认清自己，勇于承担责任，并逐步建立适合自己性格的体系，我认为是必须的。如果只是想在股市随便玩玩，也没什么大不了，但是切莫因为贪婪毁掉现在的生活，人生的苦，往往源自盲目的执着，总想去得到自己能力以外的东西，人生的难，难在放下，一旦放下超出自己能力的欲望，生活就会变的容易。人生如海，祝你有帆有岸。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635545002,"gmtCreate":1647146408329,"gmtModify":1647146408329,"author":{"id":"3565861871740192","authorId":"3565861871740192","name":"792ecb00","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565861871740192","authorIdStr":"3565861871740192"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不错","listText":"不错","text":"不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635545002","repostId":"635567581","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":635567581,"gmtCreate":1647098031257,"gmtModify":1647135933605,"author":{"id":"35433028694349","authorId":"35433028694349","name":"老虎专刊","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/e0b93d50cf0df54ce7b1b746f78db36c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"35433028694349","authorIdStr":"35433028694349"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎周刊】老虎社区一周十大精华文章","htmlText":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 就，一起发现宝藏虎友，一起投资一起成长。谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/635334910\" target=\"_blank\">当下美股竟有个稳赚的机会！</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> 我不是标题党，几乎真的是百分之百挣钱。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/635097665\" target=\"_blank\">中概连续暴跌，你可能需要它：期权组合保证金减免来了</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667584262733\">@期权小助手</a> 包括Covered call在内的多种期权组合保证金减免正式、全面上线了！ 全球的老虎入金用户，只要是保证金账户，开通期权交易权限的，都可以享受到。 这些组合有什么用处呢？接下来就给大家简要介绍一下这些组合的原理和保证金减免的规则。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/635984315\" target=\"_blank\">俄乌战争，一个俄罗斯供应商的经历告诉你它对普通人来说意味着什么？</a> 发布者：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667638457531\">@互联网怪盗团</a> 自战争爆发我就开始日夜关注四个和国际贸易直接相关的重要消息。一个是俄罗斯被踢出SWIFT,一个是卢布汇率，还有国际","listText":"嗨，虎友们好~这里是老虎社区每周更新的栏目“老虎周刊”。 “老虎周刊”精选老虎社区虎友们一周精华写作，希望对您的投资有所助力。 就，一起发现宝藏虎友，一起投资一起成长。谢虎友们支持，祝您投资顺利！ 下面进入一周榜单： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/635334910\" target=\"_blank\">当下美股竟有个稳赚的机会！</a> 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