阿小白的个人主页 - 老虎社区

阿小白

阿小白

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IP属地：河南

171关注

2粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2021-03-21

老虎，加油

2021-03-14

是反弹还是跌……

2021-03-13

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@何安迪:冯小刚背后的资本大佬

2021-03-12

[开心] [开心] [开心]

新能源汽车股“涨不停”，小鹏汽车涨超10%

2021-03-09

$蔚来(NIO)$相信你很快涨起来，加油未来！

2021-03-08

[得意] [得意] [得意]

@易简财经:阿里内网的帖子火出圈：企业文化被员工吐槽名不副实

2021-03-04

$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来的未来路在何方[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2021-02-27

跌的不想看了

2021-02-26

$理想汽车(LI)$已割肉离场，再见再也不见[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血]

2021-02-25

$理想汽车(LI)$准备割肉🥩离场，坑爹货！以后不见！[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血]

2021-02-25

$理想汽车(LI)$今天晚上直接出了，磨的真是服了，跌跌不休，没耐心了，大坑货

2021-02-24

今晚还是继续如昨晚波涛汹涌还是开涨呀[看涨] [心碎] [心碎] [心碎] [心碎] [心碎]

2021-02-23

$理想汽车(LI)$后天财报出来，会有一波行情么！

2021-02-23

这回调还得继续[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

2021-02-22

今晚怎么样，希望牛🐮牛🐮牛🐮

2021-02-21

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$还会在回到毛票么！

2021-02-20

$理想汽车(LI)$$蔚来(NIO)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$我这还有救吗，无语了，跌跌不休[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血]

2021-02-13

$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来，加油！期待年底能到多少？大家都发表下意见！

2021-02-11

新春快乐，提前给大家拜年了[抱拳] [抱拳] [抱拳] [看涨] [看涨] [看涨] [看涨] [看涨] [看涨] [看涨]

2021-02-09

$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来，加油吧，过完年好好爆发吧[得意] [得意] [得意] [得意]

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但在我看来，也怪不了别人。 华谊没有兄弟，华谊只爱钱。 这一切，不过是欲望的反噬罢了。 01 其实我挺见不得大佬总标榜自己“白手起家”的。因为做生意想要成功，就根本不可能忽略掉背景、资本、人脉的价值。 只不过有些人是后天自己找来的，有些人是出生就拥有了。王中军就是典型的后者，标准的京圈大院子弟。 但我觉得也大可不必批判。 投胎是技术活，放着现成的资源不用，那不是傻子吗？ 你看他，虽然初中都没毕业，但好在家里有钱啊！ 80年代末，就有钱送退伍回来的他出国留学。出了趟国摇身一变，他就从小学文凭，变成了美国纽约州立大学的传媒硕士了。 而他不仅带着学位回来了，还带回了“半工半读”赚来的10万美金创业基金。 咱也不知道干啥能在八十年代短短几年赚到10万美金，但反正人家的广告公司就这样办起来了。 而这家开在路边印刷小广告的“公司”也不知道有啥魅力，居然可以一连拿下中国银行、中石化等多家国企千万级别的大单，仅仅三年，就跻身“全国十大广告公司”之列。你看，没有人能随随便便成功，除非你有背景和人脉。京圈最不缺人脉。也最不缺抱团的“文艺骨干”。 想来华谊能成功，和两个人有着密切的关系。 那就是冯小刚和王京花。一个出作品，一个带明星。 其实最初王氏兄弟跨行入影视业时，是投了三个人的：姜文、陈凯歌、冯小刚。 可这三部电影，一部被禁了，一部扑了，只有冯小刚赚了。 你看，别跟资本谈什么情怀、理想、潜力。 资本","text":"有一句话叫：风水轮流转。 谁能想到当初的龙头影视公司，如今陷入卖画、卖房、借钱还债的地步了呢？ 前天，华谊兄弟董事长王中军在和俞敏洪的聊天节目中感叹： 在被银行逼债的时候，有种世态炎凉的感觉。 是挺世态炎凉的，大少爷一直都是银行的香饽饽、资本的宠儿。什么时候受过这种委屈？ 这都准备好安享晚年了，谁又能想到咋就快陷入晚节不保的境地了呢？ 有人说啊，华谊兄弟的“败局”都是从冯小刚《手机》事件开始的。 但在我看来，也怪不了别人。 华谊没有兄弟，华谊只爱钱。 这一切，不过是欲望的反噬罢了。 01 其实我挺见不得大佬总标榜自己“白手起家”的。因为做生意想要成功，就根本不可能忽略掉背景、资本、人脉的价值。 只不过有些人是后天自己找来的，有些人是出生就拥有了。王中军就是典型的后者，标准的京圈大院子弟。 但我觉得也大可不必批判。 投胎是技术活，放着现成的资源不用，那不是傻子吗？ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/385f33a3e8d44a2e85e62c9dd276d837\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新能源汽车股“涨不停”，小鹏汽车涨超10%</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/385f33a3e8d44a2e85e62c9dd276d837\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccf08a65163213fb22b4f94f7fb404e8","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168743377","content_text":"3月11日盘初，新能源汽车股再度爆发，小鹏汽车涨超10%，理想汽车涨超7%，蔚来涨超5%，特斯拉涨超3%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329765918,"gmtCreate":1615281735634,"gmtModify":1703486687608,"author":{"id":"3565844745819141","authorId":"3565844745819141","name":"阿小白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5577badc36c190df0d4b5eae08b8144a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565844745819141","authorIdStr":"3565844745819141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>相信你很快涨起来，加油未来！","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>垃圾中的铁公鸡，在这样下去理想也只配跟开心玩了","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$垃圾中的铁公鸡，在这样下去理想也只配跟开心玩了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394267974","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562159004774290","authorId":"3562159004774290","name":"邪恶镰刀","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0142ecc799e2ad77abe8ab459a7a63","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562159004774290","authorIdStr":"3562159004774290"},"content":"开心？开心一夜暴涨几倍，理想会这样吗？","text":"开心？开心一夜暴涨几倍，理想会这样吗？","html":"开心？开心一夜暴涨几倍，理想会这样吗？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338519082,"gmtCreate":1609931624346,"gmtModify":1703741415337,"author":{"id":"3565844745819141","authorId":"3565844745819141","name":"阿小白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5577badc36c190df0d4b5eae08b8144a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565844745819141","authorIdStr":"3565844745819141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>这电动三宝股价也是没谁了30、40、50各露个头！就不能继续上攻缺个尾巴呀！[喷血]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>这电动三宝股价也是没谁了30、40、50各露个头！就不能继续上攻缺个尾巴呀！[喷血]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;[喷血]&nbsp;","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$蔚来(NIO)$这电动三宝股价也是没谁了30、40、50各露个头！就不能继续上攻缺个尾巴呀！[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338519082","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392959842,"gmtCreate":1607354127686,"gmtModify":1703847364795,"author":{"id":"3565844745819141","authorId":"3565844745819141","name":"阿小白","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5577badc36c190df0d4b5eae08b8144a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565844745819141","authorIdStr":"3565844745819141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"泡沫小鹏，不知道哪来的自信挑战特斯拉（虽然我也不喜欢特斯拉），你的技术是人家淘汰的，你的创新在哪儿！一次又一次给中国抹黑，又被打上抄袭的黑标签！耻辱","listText":"泡沫小鹏，不知道哪来的自信挑战特斯拉（虽然我也不喜欢特斯拉），你的技术是人家淘汰的，你的创新在哪儿！一次又一次给中国抹黑，又被打上抄袭的黑标签！耻辱","text":"泡沫小鹏，不知道哪来的自信挑战特斯拉（虽然我也不喜欢特斯拉），你的技术是人家淘汰的，你的创新在哪儿！一次又一次给中国抹黑，又被打上抄袭的黑标签！耻辱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392959842","repostId":"1120277957","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120277957","pubTimestamp":1607347760,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120277957?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-07 21:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"增发“吓跑”投资者，小鹏汽车股价泡沫几何？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120277957","media":"鞭牛士","summary":"12月7日美股盘前，小鹏汽车宣布拟增发4000万ADS，消息发布后，股价应声大跌，一度跌超10%，现涨幅收窄至7.88%。此前，新造车势力股价暴涨，在吸引投资者入场的同时，也让许多人生出警惕：这其中的","content":"<blockquote>12月7日美股盘前，小鹏汽车宣布拟增发4000万ADS，消息发布后，股价应声大跌，一度跌超10%，现涨幅收窄至7.88%。此前，新造车势力股价暴涨，在吸引投资者入场的同时，也让许多人生出警惕：这其中的泡沫会有多大？</blockquote><p>最近，小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏，成了网络上高调的红人。</p><p>在这段时间，他频繁对外发表自己的看法和观点：从“回怼”马斯克到公开评论阿里上汽合资造车和华为与长安的合作，甚至还跑到知乎上去亲自回复小鹏汽车因为名字“太土”而被吐槽的问题；12月1日，小鹏汽车更是高调宣布2020年11月交付总量为4224台，创下年度新高。</p><p>前两年灰头土脸、危机频出的造车新势力，终于迎来了自己扬眉吐气的时刻。</p><p>“特斯拉+中国制造”成为了未来的代名词。国内，以蔚来、理想、小鹏为代表的的造车新势力，股价都迎来了飙涨。自11月初至月底，小鹏汽车区间涨幅超过 260%，理想汽车涨幅超过 117%，蔚来汽车涨幅接近75%。</p><p>截至11月末，蔚来+理想+小鹏的总市值超过1500亿美元，比上汽、长城、吉利、广汽等一众国内传统车企合计市值还高。</p><p>狂奔的估值、“神话”般的未来想象，这或许是何小鹏敢于高调的资本。</p><p>但与之相对的，是特斯拉这条“鲶鱼”在中国的来势汹汹、传统车企和巨头公司的步步紧逼。据中汽协的数据显示，当前新能源汽车仅占中国乘用车市场5％左右的市场份额。</p><p>面对这一状况，很多人开始存疑和警惕：造车新势力是否正在存在估值泡沫？造车新势力们，究竟是“神话”还是被“神化”？这场狂欢到底还能持续多久？</p><p>经纬创投张颖甚至专门发布了题为《电动车暴涨之后，如何做估值的朋友》的文章，告诉大家需要对大环境保持警惕，因为“结束繁荣的，可能就是繁荣本身”。</p><p><b>01、浪尖上的小鹏</b></p><p>自成立以来，小鹏汽车和特斯拉的纠纷就没有停止过。这次，何小鹏的高调，最初也是因为特斯拉CEO马斯克，暗讽小鹏汽车“抄袭”特斯拉。</p><p>11月20日，何小鹏现身广州车展。当天，小鹏汽车发布了新一代自动驾驶体系，同时宣布将于2021年推出全球首款搭载激光雷达的量产智能汽车。</p><p>消息公布不久，引发了美国业内人士的讨论：他们有没有意识到他们无法复制特斯拉的方法？马斯克则直接评论称：“这只是小鹏的问题，其他公司是没有的”，并转发消息表示“他们有我们老的软件版本，但没有我们的神经网络算法”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e75cedd47d0af2fda30bd10a726f5f77\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"457\"></p><p>来源/twitter</p><p>随后，何小鹏在其个人微博疑似回怼马斯克。他表示， “造谣早就证明是无法打败任何竞争对手的。明年开始，在中国的自动驾驶你要有思想准备被我们打得找不着东，至于国际，我们会相遇的。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae0bdaa3ae942f4fcd77293b5558a8a7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"748\"></p><p>来源/微博</p><p>而在何小鹏炮轰完马斯克后，小鹏汽车再度迎来暴涨，三天涨幅超过70%，市值超过500亿美元。</p><p>事实上，这已经不是特斯拉第一次指责小鹏汽车抄袭了。小鹏汽车的前雇员曹光植，曾被特斯拉以窃取自动驾驶商业机密为由控告——曹光植从特斯拉离职前将AutoPilot的相关源代码副本上传至其iCloud账户，并且压缩和移动。</p><p>曹光植承认了特斯拉指控的大部分事实，但否认窃密。2020年4月，小鹏汽车对事件发声明称，至今没有任何证据显示，小鹏汽车有滥用商业机密或其他不当行为。目前该诉讼案件依然尚未有最终结果。</p><p>回怼了之后，何小鹏的怒气似乎依然没有发泄完毕。11月25日，何小鹏在知乎上回答了《为什么许多国外品牌以创始人名字命名我们觉得高大上，而中国品牌以创始人命名却难接受？》的问题，花了2000多字，解释了为什么要以“小鹏”作为公司的名字。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c7ac4587475a3e8931d7d89bfb33bb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"923\"></p><p>来源/知乎</p><p>11月28日，何小鹏又再度发了一个朋友圈，提了一个问题——两个强大的企业在一个稳定且有利润的市场跨界且深度战略合作是否会成功？他的自我回答是：在国内的科技行业好像没有成功的案例，主导权之争所带来的的体系文化路线执行差异完全无法避免。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e6c9fd7881bc9beb5ae2bf1a05def95\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"917\"></p><p>来源/网络</p><p>业内人士认为，何小鹏第一个言论直指11月26日阿里巴巴和上汽、浦东新区等宣布合资100亿造“智己汽车”，甚至还指向了华为、长安和宁德时代的合作。</p><p>何小鹏为何如此紧张？业内人士认为，一方面，因为阿里巴巴是小鹏汽车的二股东；另一方面，阿里+上汽、华为+长安的合作，势必对小鹏汽车等造车新势力造成打击。</p><p>从特斯拉到用户、从股东到竞争对手，何小鹏的矛头全方位对准了对小鹏汽车有质疑的人——曾经这么高调的何小鹏还是两年前，当时他炮轰整个行业，最著名的观点是：汽车运营的重要性大于制造，被行业集体Diss后，何小鹏选择“闭口不言”了一段时间。</p><p>在新造车势力估值暴涨的大环境下，何小鹏的高调“言论”会显得格外吸睛——让人不禁猜测：这是何小鹏在终于扬眉吐气之后的发泄之举吗？还是趁着风口浪尖的品牌动作？</p><p><b>02、小鹏优势几何？</b></p><p>但无论何小鹏是为了发泄还是品牌宣传，小鹏的估值暴涨是不争的事实。</p><p>11月份，蔚来汽车、理想汽车、小鹏汽车先后公布了其2020年第三季度的财报。财报显示，小鹏汽车Q3实现总营收19.9亿元，同比增长342.5%，环比增长236.9%；共交付8578辆汽车，其中P7销量占72.4%；毛利率为4.6%，这也是小鹏汽车首次毛利率转正。</p><p>再来看看理想汽车和蔚来汽车。理想汽车2020年Q3实现总营收25.11亿元，同比增长28.9%；共交付8660辆汽车，较第二季度增长31.1%，创季度交付量新高；毛利率19.8%，较第二季度的13.3%提高6.5个百分点。</p><p>蔚来汽车Q3则实现总营收45.260亿元，同比增长146.4%；净亏损为10.47亿元，同比收窄58.5%；共交付12206辆汽车，其中包括8660辆ES6、3530辆ES8和16辆EC6；毛利率今年大幅提升，其中汽车销售毛利率14.5%，综合毛利率12.9%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983574cacb0c33a6f12b7780017f84e4\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"562\"></p><p>制图/鞭牛士BiaNews</p><p>从三家营收对比来看，蔚来汽车近三年来营业收入均排在首位，远高于理想汽车和小鹏汽车；理想汽车虽然是三家之中最晚实现交付的公司，但理想ONE自交付以来，连续三个季度实现正增长，今年表现出强劲的增长势头。</p><p>相比之下，小鹏汽车今年的表现则相对疲软。虽然小鹏汽车在2018年就实现了整车交付，但在2019年、2020年上半年的营收规模均远低于蔚来汽车，而且今年开始被后来者理想汽车赶超。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13eb6efbeeabf79299acc615487eef10\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"692\"></p><p>来源/中金研究</p><p>从今年4月份开始，小鹏汽车的销量开始出现下滑情况，从1008辆下降到了6月的821辆，整个上半年小鹏汽车销量4698辆，同比下滑51%，跌出造车新势力销量榜前三。7月开始回暖，但这更多要归功于小鹏P7的发布。</p><p>此外，研发投入，一直是造车新势力的发力重点。据统计，2018年，小鹏汽车的研发投入为10.5亿，占营业费用62%；2019年研发投入达到20.7亿，占营业费用的64%。2020年Q3，小鹏汽车研发支出为6.35亿元，同比增长46.1%。</p><p>而从2016年-2020年上半年，蔚来汽车在研发上的投入达到136亿元，平均每年研发投入约为30亿元，直到今年，在研发上的投入才慢慢有所减少；相较之下，理想汽车的研发投入相对较少，从2018年至2020年Q3，理想汽车总研发费用为26.86亿元。</p><p>而据比亚迪年报数据显示，公司2019年研发费用56.29亿元，同比增长12.83%；长城2019全年研发支出总额42.48亿元，吉利汽车集团2019年研发支出为30.67亿元。从研发费用上看，只有蔚来可以与他们一较高下。</p><p>对于造车新势力三兄弟来说，今年最大的利好消息，莫过于终于实现毛利率转正，不再“卖一辆亏一辆”了。但从长期来看，离公司真正实现全面盈利，仍然有较长的路走。</p><p>理想汽车今年Q1、Q2和Q3净亏损分别为7710万元、7520万元和1.07亿元，第三季度净亏损环比增长42.2%。但在非美国通用会计准则下，理想Q3净利润为1600万元，而第二季度净亏损为1.59亿元，意味着Q3实现扭亏为盈。</p><p>蔚来汽车今年上半年亏损率收窄为-56.3%，去年同期这一比例高达-188.2%，2019年全年亏损率则为-144.4%；小鹏汽车Q3净亏损为11.48亿元，与去年同期净亏损7.763亿元相比，有所扩大。财报显示，其亏损除用于运营、研发外，主要与上市后股权激励息息相关。</p><p>可以看到，从数据对比来看，在造车新势力的头部三家企业中，小鹏汽车的各项表现都并不处在优势。</p><p><b>03、泡沫还是未来？</b></p><p>一方面是数据的不尽人如意和市场竞争的进一步加大，另一方面是股价的连番暴涨。新造车势力在吸引投资者入场的同时，也让许多人生出警惕：这其中的泡沫会有多大？</p><p>对于小鹏汽车来说，面对特斯拉、传统车企、蓄势待发的新品牌等这些对手们，即便估值暴涨，其依然面临着较大的压力。</p><p>小鹏汽车的交付量开始增长，是自小鹏P7今年5月份开始交付之后，目前P7补贴后售价区间为23-35万，对标特斯拉的Model 3。但特斯拉Model 3已经降至27万，更不排除随着特斯拉的进一步国产化，这个价格可能会降至更低，到时候，小鹏P7的价格优势势必受到一定威胁。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4461333e9cb845b398ecb42553ec3c1\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"></p><p>小鹏汽车P7/图片源自官网</p><p>要知道，蔚来汽车依然在小心翼翼的避开特斯拉的竞争赛道。11月6日，李斌在蔚来100Kw·h电池包的发布会上表示，蔚来旗下车型平均单价在不断增涨，比特斯拉在中国的售价要贵15万元左右，“我们的用户和特斯拉已经不太一样了，在品牌价格区间上也有了很明显区分。”</p><p>有小鹏汽车车主向鞭牛士BiaNews表示：作为一名小鹏车主，他认为小鹏的优点是科技程度高，但从车的角度来讲，质量一般。在他看来，虽然没有小鹏汽车“偷窃”特斯拉代码的证据，但其实广大的小鹏车主心里都心知肚明：“很多人当初买小鹏就是奔着这个去的，在使用上和特斯拉有很大的相似度，但价格会更便宜。”</p><p>此外，小鹏汽车的劲敌——自主品牌的比亚迪汉售价区间为21.98-27.95万，与小鹏P7短兵相接。在比亚迪汉车型7月上市后，9月实现销量0.56万辆，环比增长 40%，Q3总销量为1.08万辆。</p><p>但不能否认的是，新能源汽车市场的狂欢依然在继续。截至11月27日美股收盘，蔚来汽车总市值突破728.4亿美元，约合人民币4788.4亿元，超越比亚迪成为中国市值最高的车企。</p><p>我们来看一下新能源汽车的估值逻辑。</p><p>如果从汽车企业的角度，资本市场原本不会给出这么高的价格。</p><p>有投资人向鞭牛士BiaNews表示，资本市场对新能源车企和燃油车企的估值标准不在同一个维度上，他们更多看重的是一家企业未来的潜力——新能源汽车代表着未来。当汽车被放上科技属性后，汽车的智能化，就意味着万物互联新空间的诞生。</p><p>政策的利好，也是推动新能源汽车市场飞速发展的一个重要方面。</p><p>10月20日，中国国务院办公厅印发了《新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021—2035年）》，其中提到，“新能源汽车已成为全球汽车产业转型发展的主要方向和促进世界经济持续增长的重要引擎”，其中还提到，到2025年，我国新能源汽车新车销售占比要达到车辆总销售的20%左右——我国新能源汽车当前销量只占整体汽车销量的4.3%，这距离目标还有非常大的成长空间。</p><p>欧洲各国则更是明确提出禁售燃油车的具体时间节点，其中挪威提出到2025年，新车销售要实现完全电动化，英国也提出到2030年电动乘用车销量占比要达到50%以上。</p><p>乘用车市场信息联席会也在近期表示，新势力车企的表现之强的确超出预期，可能是因为新能源汽车目前在美国市场是高价格，虽然体现了一定的泡沫成分，但这种泡沫是因为对未来有一个良好的预期，美国投资者认同这个线路和未来的趋势。</p><p>但在大环境和大政策的利好之下，并不是每一家企业都有足够的底气和实力笑到最后。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32c09c8f5757680929fc2c68344b19f8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\"></p><p>图源Pexels</p><p>首先，新造车势力们，会面临补贴在未来的退潮。</p><p>从2009年，中国政府开始为购买电动汽车的用户提供补贴，以促进新能源汽车行业的发展，但在过去几年补贴逐步减少，从鼓励产业发展转向鼓励汽车制造商自主竞争。但因为疫情，为了提振行业回复，原本计划在2020年取消新能源汽车的补贴，暂时被维持。</p><p>当前，新能源汽车购置补贴和免征购置税政策将会延续到2022年底。据媒体报道，管理部门当前正在讨论在2020年晚些时候将新能源汽车补贴削减 10%，并缩小有资格享受补贴的新能源汽车范围。</p><p>其次，是产品的持续和稳定。</p><p>据媒体报道，今年64岁的丰田章男在最近一次在线简报会上说：“在股价方面，我们正在亏损。但在产品方面，我们有完整的菜单供客户选择。”在特斯拉现在的市值已经超过了丰田和日本其他六大汽车制造商的总和之时，丰田章男认为：“他们并不是在做真正的东西，人们只是在买菜谱。我们有厨房和厨师，我们做真正的食物。”</p><p>汽车行业是所有行业中最为复杂的行业——没有之一。在利用新科技和新商业模式带来变革、引发资本狂欢的同时，如何打造出足够安全、可靠、接受度高的产品，才是重中之重。</p><p>另外，他们面临的问题还有：在特斯拉和传统车企进场后要如何应付？承诺的技术研发投入会不会带来成效？渠道和服务能否跟上用户扩张的步伐？</p><p>每一次，一个新的概念出现，都会吸引二级市场的眼球。但最终支撑一家公司能否走的更远的，不是泡沫之下的高估值，而是其所提供的真正价值和实力本身。（</p>","source":"bns","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>增发“吓跑”投资者，小鹏汽车股价泡沫几何？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n增发“吓跑”投资者，小鹏汽车股价泡沫几何？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-07 21:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zbfNnYu0m5zNY9Ul6ysaMA><strong>鞭牛士</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月7日美股盘前，小鹏汽车宣布拟增发4000万ADS，消息发布后，股价应声大跌，一度跌超10%，现涨幅收窄至7.88%。此前，新造车势力股价暴涨，在吸引投资者入场的同时，也让许多人生出警惕：这其中的泡沫会有多大？最近，小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏，成了网络上高调的红人。在这段时间，他频繁对外发表自己的看法和观点：从“回怼”马斯克到公开评论阿里上汽合资造车和华为与长安的合作，甚至还跑到知乎上去亲自回复...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zbfNnYu0m5zNY9Ul6ysaMA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4aa4c2246df411f68e16a21f6d365311","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zbfNnYu0m5zNY9Ul6ysaMA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120277957","content_text":"12月7日美股盘前，小鹏汽车宣布拟增发4000万ADS，消息发布后，股价应声大跌，一度跌超10%，现涨幅收窄至7.88%。此前，新造车势力股价暴涨，在吸引投资者入场的同时，也让许多人生出警惕：这其中的泡沫会有多大？最近，小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏，成了网络上高调的红人。在这段时间，他频繁对外发表自己的看法和观点：从“回怼”马斯克到公开评论阿里上汽合资造车和华为与长安的合作，甚至还跑到知乎上去亲自回复小鹏汽车因为名字“太土”而被吐槽的问题；12月1日，小鹏汽车更是高调宣布2020年11月交付总量为4224台，创下年度新高。前两年灰头土脸、危机频出的造车新势力，终于迎来了自己扬眉吐气的时刻。“特斯拉+中国制造”成为了未来的代名词。国内，以蔚来、理想、小鹏为代表的的造车新势力，股价都迎来了飙涨。自11月初至月底，小鹏汽车区间涨幅超过 260%，理想汽车涨幅超过 117%，蔚来汽车涨幅接近75%。截至11月末，蔚来+理想+小鹏的总市值超过1500亿美元，比上汽、长城、吉利、广汽等一众国内传统车企合计市值还高。狂奔的估值、“神话”般的未来想象，这或许是何小鹏敢于高调的资本。但与之相对的，是特斯拉这条“鲶鱼”在中国的来势汹汹、传统车企和巨头公司的步步紧逼。据中汽协的数据显示，当前新能源汽车仅占中国乘用车市场5％左右的市场份额。面对这一状况，很多人开始存疑和警惕：造车新势力是否正在存在估值泡沫？造车新势力们，究竟是“神话”还是被“神化”？这场狂欢到底还能持续多久？经纬创投张颖甚至专门发布了题为《电动车暴涨之后，如何做估值的朋友》的文章，告诉大家需要对大环境保持警惕，因为“结束繁荣的，可能就是繁荣本身”。01、浪尖上的小鹏自成立以来，小鹏汽车和特斯拉的纠纷就没有停止过。这次，何小鹏的高调，最初也是因为特斯拉CEO马斯克，暗讽小鹏汽车“抄袭”特斯拉。11月20日，何小鹏现身广州车展。当天，小鹏汽车发布了新一代自动驾驶体系，同时宣布将于2021年推出全球首款搭载激光雷达的量产智能汽车。消息公布不久，引发了美国业内人士的讨论：他们有没有意识到他们无法复制特斯拉的方法？马斯克则直接评论称：“这只是小鹏的问题，其他公司是没有的”，并转发消息表示“他们有我们老的软件版本，但没有我们的神经网络算法”。来源/twitter随后，何小鹏在其个人微博疑似回怼马斯克。他表示， “造谣早就证明是无法打败任何竞争对手的。明年开始，在中国的自动驾驶你要有思想准备被我们打得找不着东，至于国际，我们会相遇的。”来源/微博而在何小鹏炮轰完马斯克后，小鹏汽车再度迎来暴涨，三天涨幅超过70%，市值超过500亿美元。事实上，这已经不是特斯拉第一次指责小鹏汽车抄袭了。小鹏汽车的前雇员曹光植，曾被特斯拉以窃取自动驾驶商业机密为由控告——曹光植从特斯拉离职前将AutoPilot的相关源代码副本上传至其iCloud账户，并且压缩和移动。曹光植承认了特斯拉指控的大部分事实，但否认窃密。2020年4月，小鹏汽车对事件发声明称，至今没有任何证据显示，小鹏汽车有滥用商业机密或其他不当行为。目前该诉讼案件依然尚未有最终结果。回怼了之后，何小鹏的怒气似乎依然没有发泄完毕。11月25日，何小鹏在知乎上回答了《为什么许多国外品牌以创始人名字命名我们觉得高大上，而中国品牌以创始人命名却难接受？》的问题，花了2000多字，解释了为什么要以“小鹏”作为公司的名字。来源/知乎11月28日，何小鹏又再度发了一个朋友圈，提了一个问题——两个强大的企业在一个稳定且有利润的市场跨界且深度战略合作是否会成功？他的自我回答是：在国内的科技行业好像没有成功的案例，主导权之争所带来的的体系文化路线执行差异完全无法避免。来源/网络业内人士认为，何小鹏第一个言论直指11月26日阿里巴巴和上汽、浦东新区等宣布合资100亿造“智己汽车”，甚至还指向了华为、长安和宁德时代的合作。何小鹏为何如此紧张？业内人士认为，一方面，因为阿里巴巴是小鹏汽车的二股东；另一方面，阿里+上汽、华为+长安的合作，势必对小鹏汽车等造车新势力造成打击。从特斯拉到用户、从股东到竞争对手，何小鹏的矛头全方位对准了对小鹏汽车有质疑的人——曾经这么高调的何小鹏还是两年前，当时他炮轰整个行业，最著名的观点是：汽车运营的重要性大于制造，被行业集体Diss后，何小鹏选择“闭口不言”了一段时间。在新造车势力估值暴涨的大环境下，何小鹏的高调“言论”会显得格外吸睛——让人不禁猜测：这是何小鹏在终于扬眉吐气之后的发泄之举吗？还是趁着风口浪尖的品牌动作？02、小鹏优势几何？但无论何小鹏是为了发泄还是品牌宣传，小鹏的估值暴涨是不争的事实。11月份，蔚来汽车、理想汽车、小鹏汽车先后公布了其2020年第三季度的财报。财报显示，小鹏汽车Q3实现总营收19.9亿元，同比增长342.5%，环比增长236.9%；共交付8578辆汽车，其中P7销量占72.4%；毛利率为4.6%，这也是小鹏汽车首次毛利率转正。再来看看理想汽车和蔚来汽车。理想汽车2020年Q3实现总营收25.11亿元，同比增长28.9%；共交付8660辆汽车，较第二季度增长31.1%，创季度交付量新高；毛利率19.8%，较第二季度的13.3%提高6.5个百分点。蔚来汽车Q3则实现总营收45.260亿元，同比增长146.4%；净亏损为10.47亿元，同比收窄58.5%；共交付12206辆汽车，其中包括8660辆ES6、3530辆ES8和16辆EC6；毛利率今年大幅提升，其中汽车销售毛利率14.5%，综合毛利率12.9%。制图/鞭牛士BiaNews从三家营收对比来看，蔚来汽车近三年来营业收入均排在首位，远高于理想汽车和小鹏汽车；理想汽车虽然是三家之中最晚实现交付的公司，但理想ONE自交付以来，连续三个季度实现正增长，今年表现出强劲的增长势头。相比之下，小鹏汽车今年的表现则相对疲软。虽然小鹏汽车在2018年就实现了整车交付，但在2019年、2020年上半年的营收规模均远低于蔚来汽车，而且今年开始被后来者理想汽车赶超。来源/中金研究从今年4月份开始，小鹏汽车的销量开始出现下滑情况，从1008辆下降到了6月的821辆，整个上半年小鹏汽车销量4698辆，同比下滑51%，跌出造车新势力销量榜前三。7月开始回暖，但这更多要归功于小鹏P7的发布。此外，研发投入，一直是造车新势力的发力重点。据统计，2018年，小鹏汽车的研发投入为10.5亿，占营业费用62%；2019年研发投入达到20.7亿，占营业费用的64%。2020年Q3，小鹏汽车研发支出为6.35亿元，同比增长46.1%。而从2016年-2020年上半年，蔚来汽车在研发上的投入达到136亿元，平均每年研发投入约为30亿元，直到今年，在研发上的投入才慢慢有所减少；相较之下，理想汽车的研发投入相对较少，从2018年至2020年Q3，理想汽车总研发费用为26.86亿元。而据比亚迪年报数据显示，公司2019年研发费用56.29亿元，同比增长12.83%；长城2019全年研发支出总额42.48亿元，吉利汽车集团2019年研发支出为30.67亿元。从研发费用上看，只有蔚来可以与他们一较高下。对于造车新势力三兄弟来说，今年最大的利好消息，莫过于终于实现毛利率转正，不再“卖一辆亏一辆”了。但从长期来看，离公司真正实现全面盈利，仍然有较长的路走。理想汽车今年Q1、Q2和Q3净亏损分别为7710万元、7520万元和1.07亿元，第三季度净亏损环比增长42.2%。但在非美国通用会计准则下，理想Q3净利润为1600万元，而第二季度净亏损为1.59亿元，意味着Q3实现扭亏为盈。蔚来汽车今年上半年亏损率收窄为-56.3%，去年同期这一比例高达-188.2%，2019年全年亏损率则为-144.4%；小鹏汽车Q3净亏损为11.48亿元，与去年同期净亏损7.763亿元相比，有所扩大。财报显示，其亏损除用于运营、研发外，主要与上市后股权激励息息相关。可以看到，从数据对比来看，在造车新势力的头部三家企业中，小鹏汽车的各项表现都并不处在优势。03、泡沫还是未来？一方面是数据的不尽人如意和市场竞争的进一步加大，另一方面是股价的连番暴涨。新造车势力在吸引投资者入场的同时，也让许多人生出警惕：这其中的泡沫会有多大？对于小鹏汽车来说，面对特斯拉、传统车企、蓄势待发的新品牌等这些对手们，即便估值暴涨，其依然面临着较大的压力。小鹏汽车的交付量开始增长，是自小鹏P7今年5月份开始交付之后，目前P7补贴后售价区间为23-35万，对标特斯拉的Model 3。但特斯拉Model 3已经降至27万，更不排除随着特斯拉的进一步国产化，这个价格可能会降至更低，到时候，小鹏P7的价格优势势必受到一定威胁。小鹏汽车P7/图片源自官网要知道，蔚来汽车依然在小心翼翼的避开特斯拉的竞争赛道。11月6日，李斌在蔚来100Kw·h电池包的发布会上表示，蔚来旗下车型平均单价在不断增涨，比特斯拉在中国的售价要贵15万元左右，“我们的用户和特斯拉已经不太一样了，在品牌价格区间上也有了很明显区分。”有小鹏汽车车主向鞭牛士BiaNews表示：作为一名小鹏车主，他认为小鹏的优点是科技程度高，但从车的角度来讲，质量一般。在他看来，虽然没有小鹏汽车“偷窃”特斯拉代码的证据，但其实广大的小鹏车主心里都心知肚明：“很多人当初买小鹏就是奔着这个去的，在使用上和特斯拉有很大的相似度，但价格会更便宜。”此外，小鹏汽车的劲敌——自主品牌的比亚迪汉售价区间为21.98-27.95万，与小鹏P7短兵相接。在比亚迪汉车型7月上市后，9月实现销量0.56万辆，环比增长 40%，Q3总销量为1.08万辆。但不能否认的是，新能源汽车市场的狂欢依然在继续。截至11月27日美股收盘，蔚来汽车总市值突破728.4亿美元，约合人民币4788.4亿元，超越比亚迪成为中国市值最高的车企。我们来看一下新能源汽车的估值逻辑。如果从汽车企业的角度，资本市场原本不会给出这么高的价格。有投资人向鞭牛士BiaNews表示，资本市场对新能源车企和燃油车企的估值标准不在同一个维度上，他们更多看重的是一家企业未来的潜力——新能源汽车代表着未来。当汽车被放上科技属性后，汽车的智能化，就意味着万物互联新空间的诞生。政策的利好，也是推动新能源汽车市场飞速发展的一个重要方面。10月20日，中国国务院办公厅印发了《新能源汽车产业发展规划（2021—2035年）》，其中提到，“新能源汽车已成为全球汽车产业转型发展的主要方向和促进世界经济持续增长的重要引擎”，其中还提到，到2025年，我国新能源汽车新车销售占比要达到车辆总销售的20%左右——我国新能源汽车当前销量只占整体汽车销量的4.3%，这距离目标还有非常大的成长空间。欧洲各国则更是明确提出禁售燃油车的具体时间节点，其中挪威提出到2025年，新车销售要实现完全电动化，英国也提出到2030年电动乘用车销量占比要达到50%以上。乘用车市场信息联席会也在近期表示，新势力车企的表现之强的确超出预期，可能是因为新能源汽车目前在美国市场是高价格，虽然体现了一定的泡沫成分，但这种泡沫是因为对未来有一个良好的预期，美国投资者认同这个线路和未来的趋势。但在大环境和大政策的利好之下，并不是每一家企业都有足够的底气和实力笑到最后。图源Pexels首先，新造车势力们，会面临补贴在未来的退潮。从2009年，中国政府开始为购买电动汽车的用户提供补贴，以促进新能源汽车行业的发展，但在过去几年补贴逐步减少，从鼓励产业发展转向鼓励汽车制造商自主竞争。但因为疫情，为了提振行业回复，原本计划在2020年取消新能源汽车的补贴，暂时被维持。当前，新能源汽车购置补贴和免征购置税政策将会延续到2022年底。据媒体报道，管理部门当前正在讨论在2020年晚些时候将新能源汽车补贴削减 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