猛猹猹的个人主页 - 老虎社区

猛猹猹

猛猹猹

愤怒且疯狂

IP属地：上海

68关注

4粉丝

6主题

0勋章

2021-03-26

$特斯拉(TSLA)$买个酒瓶子，加持信仰！

2021-02-08

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-26

$特斯拉(TSLA)$$Etsy, Inc.(ETSY)$我也喜欢ESTY，这就去买call！

2021-01-10

$特斯拉(TSLA)$Gary Black推特搬运

2021-01-07

$特斯拉(TSLA)$追随马斯克上火星！！！！

2021-01-06

这篇中肯

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-01-04

微信转账给我，想买啥跟我说

@酱香型科技:$苹果(AAPL)$国内如何卖美股求大佬解答

2020-12-28

这种没有因果逻辑关系的文章能不能过滤一下？

富国银行2021年市场预测：历史正在重演，特斯拉(TSLA.US)或成为21世纪的美国在线

2020-12-28

签了！恭喜多头们！

特朗普签署9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案

2020-12-27

写这个的分析师是弱智么？毫无逻辑，全凭臆测

股市面临“断水”？美联储明年会缩表吗

2020-12-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$每天一遍，加持信仰！

2020-12-22

收到！谢谢老板！特斯拉加油！

@Modi:$特斯拉(TSLA)$恭喜🎉@DING2020 @猛猹猹，12/21收盤價。共同平分虎幤900！敬請查收。

2020-12-09

$特斯拉(TSLA)$发射gg

2020-12-05

学费交足就可以克服了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-11-25

$特斯拉(TSLA)$坚定持有特斯拉，不碰国产三傻。

2020-10-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$隐含波动率下降这么多，还适合做备兑期权么？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"富国银行2021年市场预测：历史正在重演，特斯拉(TSLA.US)或成为21世纪的美国在线","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2094543910","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，富国银行证券的股票策略主管Chris Harvey在接受媒体采访时表示，特斯拉有可能成为21世纪的美国在线。Harvey警告说，特斯拉将来也可能会遭受类似的命运。上周，市场消息称苹果正寻求在2024年之前生产自动驾驶汽车，与特斯拉一较高下。同时，该公司一路飙升的股价是富国银行认为投资者最好避开该股的原因之一。此外，Chris Harvey还指出最有可能在2021年出现的十大情况：1.特斯拉有可能成为21世纪的美国在线。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>证券的股票策略主管Chris Harvey在接受媒体采访时表示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)有可能成为21世纪的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AOL\">美国在线</a>(AOL)。</p><p>Harvey称，“特斯拉(Tesla)与美国在线(AOL)类似，拥有改变游戏规则的技术，令人难以置信的业绩，在经历了惊人的上涨后，于12月下旬被纳入标准普尔500指数。这是一个具有开创性的事件。”</p><p>因未能跟上快速发展的技术步伐，美国在线眼看着自己的影响力分崩离析。Harvey警告说，特斯拉将来也可能会遭受类似的命运。上周，市场消息称<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL.US)正寻求在2024年之前生产自动驾驶汽车，与特斯拉一较高下。</p><p>同时，该公司一路飙升的股价是富国银行认为投资者最好避开该股的原因之一。</p><p>此外，Harvey表示，“1999年之后，许多科技和成长型公司(市值)损失了50%到100%。但21世纪，一切都会以更快的速度进行。如果此前跌入谷底要花12个月的时间，那么现在可能只需要6个月。”</p><p> 此外，Chris Harvey还指出最有可能在2021年出现的十大情况：</p><p>1.特斯拉有可能成为21世纪的美国在线。</p><p>2.走势难看的股票开始多了起来。</p><p>3.共和党保住了对参议院的控制权。</p><p>4.大型公司的表现低于大盘平均表示。</p><p>5.2021年不够好。</p><p>6.加密货币作为首选的投机工具正在复苏。</p><p>7.卫生事件带来的打击和封锁损害特朗普为了连任给股市带来的增长。</p><p>8.标普股票回购水平较2019年水平翻倍。</p><p>9.小盘股反弹。</p><p>10.波动衰减放缓。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>富国银行2021年市场预测：历史正在重演，特斯拉(TSLA.US)或成为21世纪的美国在线</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n富国银行2021年市场预测：历史正在重演，特斯拉(TSLA.US)或成为21世纪的美国在线\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-28 14:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/384637.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，富国银行证券的股票策略主管Chris Harvey在接受媒体采访时表示，特斯拉(TSLA.US)有可能成为21世纪的美国在线(AOL)。Harvey称，“特斯拉(Tesla)与美国在线(AOL)类似，拥有改变游戏规则的技术，令人难以置信的业绩，在经历了惊人的上涨后，于12月下旬被纳入标准普尔500指数。这是一个具有开创性的事件。”因未能跟上快速发展的技术步伐，美国在线眼看着自己...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/384637.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76b3cc53dd60ecb6eab407da188d689","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/384637.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2094543910","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，富国银行证券的股票策略主管Chris Harvey在接受媒体采访时表示，特斯拉(TSLA.US)有可能成为21世纪的美国在线(AOL)。Harvey称，“特斯拉(Tesla)与美国在线(AOL)类似，拥有改变游戏规则的技术，令人难以置信的业绩，在经历了惊人的上涨后，于12月下旬被纳入标准普尔500指数。这是一个具有开创性的事件。”因未能跟上快速发展的技术步伐，美国在线眼看着自己的影响力分崩离析。Harvey警告说，特斯拉将来也可能会遭受类似的命运。上周，市场消息称苹果(AAPL.US)正寻求在2024年之前生产自动驾驶汽车，与特斯拉一较高下。同时，该公司一路飙升的股价是富国银行认为投资者最好避开该股的原因之一。此外，Harvey表示，“1999年之后，许多科技和成长型公司(市值)损失了50%到100%。但21世纪，一切都会以更快的速度进行。如果此前跌入谷底要花12个月的时间，那么现在可能只需要6个月。” 此外，Chris Harvey还指出最有可能在2021年出现的十大情况：1.特斯拉有可能成为21世纪的美国在线。2.走势难看的股票开始多了起来。3.共和党保住了对参议院的控制权。4.大型公司的表现低于大盘平均表示。5.2021年不够好。6.加密货币作为首选的投机工具正在复苏。7.卫生事件带来的打击和封锁损害特朗普为了连任给股市带来的增长。8.标普股票回购水平较2019年水平翻倍。9.小盘股反弹。10.波动衰减放缓。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339749789,"gmtCreate":1609123814441,"gmtModify":1703737688215,"author":{"id":"3564430035906474","authorId":"3564430035906474","name":"猛猹猹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd81d38c12a40fb11a8f868c4c97776d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564430035906474","authorIdStr":"3564430035906474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"签了！恭喜多头们！","listText":"签了！恭喜多头们！","text":"签了！恭喜多头们！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339749789","repostId":"1143438072","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143438072","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1609117544,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143438072?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-28 09:05","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"特朗普签署9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143438072","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据Politico：特朗普已签署新冠疫情纾困法案，使其成为法律。美国白宫证实，特朗普签署了总规模为9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案。现货黄金短线走高逾8美元，现报1895.4美元/盎司，现货","content":"<p>据Politico：特朗普已签署新冠疫情纾困法案，使其成为法律。</p><p>美国白宫证实，特朗普签署了总规模为9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案。</p><p>现货黄金短线走高逾8美元，现报1895.4美元/盎司，现货白银短线走高逾0.5美元，现报26.63美元/盎司。</p><p>数百万美国人的失业救济金于周六到期，此前特朗普曾拒绝签署一项2.3万亿美元的大流行援助和支出计划，他坚称该计划在帮助普通人方面做得不够。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普签署9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普签署9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-28 09:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据Politico：特朗普已签署新冠疫情纾困法案，使其成为法律。</p><p>美国白宫证实，特朗普签署了总规模为9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案。</p><p>现货黄金短线走高逾8美元，现报1895.4美元/盎司，现货白银短线走高逾0.5美元，现报26.63美元/盎司。</p><p>数百万美国人的失业救济金于周六到期，此前特朗普曾拒绝签署一项2.3万亿美元的大流行援助和支出计划，他坚称该计划在帮助普通人方面做得不够。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae2ff4f0dbefc0001a653cf1719d84fa","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143438072","content_text":"据Politico：特朗普已签署新冠疫情纾困法案，使其成为法律。美国白宫证实，特朗普签署了总规模为9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案。现货黄金短线走高逾8美元，现报1895.4美元/盎司，现货白银短线走高逾0.5美元，现报26.63美元/盎司。数百万美国人的失业救济金于周六到期，此前特朗普曾拒绝签署一项2.3万亿美元的大流行援助和支出计划，他坚称该计划在帮助普通人方面做得不够。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339432463,"gmtCreate":1609006433152,"gmtModify":1703737479506,"author":{"id":"3564430035906474","authorId":"3564430035906474","name":"猛猹猹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd81d38c12a40fb11a8f868c4c97776d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564430035906474","authorIdStr":"3564430035906474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写这个的分析师是弱智么？毫无逻辑，全凭臆测","listText":"写这个的分析师是弱智么？毫无逻辑，全凭臆测","text":"写这个的分析师是弱智么？毫无逻辑，全凭臆测","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339432463","repostId":"1172427302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172427302","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608866731,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172427302?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-25 11:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"股市面临“断水”？美联储明年会缩表吗","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172427302","media":"申万宏源香港","summary":"美联储调整资产购买前瞻指引，可能是提前缩减购买规模的前兆。","content":"<p><b>宏观分析</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储调整资产购买前瞻指引，可能是提前缩减购买规模的前兆</b></p>\n<p>1.美联储公布12月议息会议声明，调整了资产购买计划的前瞻指引。资产购买的步伐与此前并无二致，但增加了未来资产购买计划发生变化的依据。</p>\n<p>2.我们认为此次调整表明美联储认为未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的，是对未来经济持相对乐观态度的表现。在11月议息会议纪要中，美联储表示准备调整资产购买的指引，有一些与会者考虑到未来经济前景的不确定性而对这一调整有所犹豫。但本次议息会议将这一设想迅速落地，表明本次会议上，更多的与会者认同未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的。</p>\n<p>3.本次会后同时公布的经济预测总结(SEP)也大幅上调了美国的经济展望，传递出美联储明显更为乐观的判断。本次SEP大幅上调20Q4实际GDP同比1.3个百分点至-2.4%，并分别小幅上调21Q4、22Q4实际GDP同比预测0.2个百分点至4.2%、3.2%。从经济指标预测分布来看，美联储内部对于今明两年经济指标的预测较9月时有明显的集中趋势，说明美联储认为中期经济运行的整体不确定性的确不如此前展望那么严峻。</p>\n<p>4.美联储此次声明对资产购买前瞻指引和SEP的调整可能是提前缩减资产购买规模的前兆。11月会议纪要中表示，市场参与者普遍预期2021年美联储将继续维持当前的资产购买节奏，2022年才开始逐渐缩减购买规模。但是美联储在11月纪要和此次声明中都强调资产购买前瞻指引是“基于产出的”，且“实质性进展”的模糊表述隐含的意义或许不是推迟缩减资产购买规模的时间，而恰恰是在经济展望变得乐观的情况下的提前开展。<b>我们预计，自2021年开始，由于对美国经济的展望较此前有较为明显的改善，从而美国财政赤字可能迎来比较明显的收缩，带动美联储扩表速度同步明显放慢，而自2022年开始，美联储有望开启新一轮但更为困难的缩表过程。</b></p>\n<p><b>美2021年美联储扩表速度与财政融资密切相关</b></p>\n<p>1.与08-09年美联储第一轮量化宽松相比，今年美联储扩表的一个主要特征是以购买国债为主，而非MBS。08-09年，由于危机肇始于金融体系内部，危机之初并不需要大量的财政刺激，所以政府发行债券较少，美联储购买的资产也以MBS和其他债券为主。2009年，美联储购买国债和MBS的规模分别为3006.7亿美元和9082.6亿美元，后者为前者的三倍。直到2010年底开始的第二轮量化宽松，美联储购买国债的比例才有所上升。但是今年由于美国财政支出大幅增加，国债发行量激增，美联储购买的资产也以国债为主，购买MBS的量并不多。从美联储持有资产的余额来看，今年7-11月，美联储购买国债月均818.4亿美元，和计划基本相符;但是MBS月均仅增加120.3亿美元，MBS的净增量其实是远低于400亿的资产购买计划的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dadc0566a73b252a432e415d07894ed0\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"442\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59abab8f7622b85aa5ba647afaa8df77\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>2.民主党有财政平衡的传统，2021年财政赤字率预计维持高位但弱于2020年。美国候任总统拜登在竞选过程中也明确主张增加高收入群体、金融交易的相关税收。另外，美国提名财政部长耶伦在美联储主席任上对货币政策重回正常化的巨大努力可能再次在财政——货币政策同向传导链条上再度上演。预计2021年美国联邦财政赤字率会有较大幅度的收窄，初步预计降至8%-10%左右，所需财政融资将较今年大幅减少。<b>明年财政融资节奏预期的放缓，意味着国债等今年扩表的主要资产选项，在明年无法再支持如今年一样快的美联储扩表速度。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30dcc779d56048a4e47ef335fa96fe5\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"461\"></p>\n<p>3.美国卫生事件虽迎来第三轮高峰，但政府和居民对卫生事件反应均有所钝化；而欧元区对卫生事件爆发仍然相当重视，并采取较为严格的管控措施。在这种情况下，<b>欧元区四季度经济恢复面临着更大的不确定性。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e860f916a3c6691a3fc968b7a448965b\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"446\"></p>\n<p><b>总结与分析</b></p>\n<p><b>综上，我们认为，随着卫生事件逐步稳定，美国经济数据及预期将不断改善，美国财政支出规模有可能缩减，进而使得美联储继续大规模购买国债的行为受到限制。美联储可能在经济数据符合其预期的情况下，开启新一轮“相对意义”上的缩表。</b></p>","source":"lsy1608866559813","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股市面临“断水”？美联储明年会缩表吗</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股市面临“断水”？美联储明年会缩表吗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-25 11:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/383924.html><strong>申万宏源香港</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>宏观分析\n美联储调整资产购买前瞻指引，可能是提前缩减购买规模的前兆\n1.美联储公布12月议息会议声明，调整了资产购买计划的前瞻指引。资产购买的步伐与此前并无二致，但增加了未来资产购买计划发生变化的依据。\n2.我们认为此次调整表明美联储认为未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的，是对未来经济持相对乐观态度的表现。在11月议息会议纪要中，美联储表示准备调整资产购买的指引，有一些与会者考虑到未来经济前景的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/383924.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/383924.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172427302","content_text":"宏观分析\n美联储调整资产购买前瞻指引，可能是提前缩减购买规模的前兆\n1.美联储公布12月议息会议声明，调整了资产购买计划的前瞻指引。资产购买的步伐与此前并无二致，但增加了未来资产购买计划发生变化的依据。\n2.我们认为此次调整表明美联储认为未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的，是对未来经济持相对乐观态度的表现。在11月议息会议纪要中，美联储表示准备调整资产购买的指引，有一些与会者考虑到未来经济前景的不确定性而对这一调整有所犹豫。但本次议息会议将这一设想迅速落地，表明本次会议上，更多的与会者认同未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的。\n3.本次会后同时公布的经济预测总结(SEP)也大幅上调了美国的经济展望，传递出美联储明显更为乐观的判断。本次SEP大幅上调20Q4实际GDP同比1.3个百分点至-2.4%，并分别小幅上调21Q4、22Q4实际GDP同比预测0.2个百分点至4.2%、3.2%。从经济指标预测分布来看，美联储内部对于今明两年经济指标的预测较9月时有明显的集中趋势，说明美联储认为中期经济运行的整体不确定性的确不如此前展望那么严峻。\n4.美联储此次声明对资产购买前瞻指引和SEP的调整可能是提前缩减资产购买规模的前兆。11月会议纪要中表示，市场参与者普遍预期2021年美联储将继续维持当前的资产购买节奏，2022年才开始逐渐缩减购买规模。但是美联储在11月纪要和此次声明中都强调资产购买前瞻指引是“基于产出的”，且“实质性进展”的模糊表述隐含的意义或许不是推迟缩减资产购买规模的时间，而恰恰是在经济展望变得乐观的情况下的提前开展。我们预计，自2021年开始，由于对美国经济的展望较此前有较为明显的改善，从而美国财政赤字可能迎来比较明显的收缩，带动美联储扩表速度同步明显放慢，而自2022年开始，美联储有望开启新一轮但更为困难的缩表过程。\n美2021年美联储扩表速度与财政融资密切相关\n1.与08-09年美联储第一轮量化宽松相比，今年美联储扩表的一个主要特征是以购买国债为主，而非MBS。08-09年，由于危机肇始于金融体系内部，危机之初并不需要大量的财政刺激，所以政府发行债券较少，美联储购买的资产也以MBS和其他债券为主。2009年，美联储购买国债和MBS的规模分别为3006.7亿美元和9082.6亿美元，后者为前者的三倍。直到2010年底开始的第二轮量化宽松，美联储购买国债的比例才有所上升。但是今年由于美国财政支出大幅增加，国债发行量激增，美联储购买的资产也以国债为主，购买MBS的量并不多。从美联储持有资产的余额来看，今年7-11月，美联储购买国债月均818.4亿美元，和计划基本相符;但是MBS月均仅增加120.3亿美元，MBS的净增量其实是远低于400亿的资产购买计划的。\n\n\n2.民主党有财政平衡的传统，2021年财政赤字率预计维持高位但弱于2020年。美国候任总统拜登在竞选过程中也明确主张增加高收入群体、金融交易的相关税收。另外，美国提名财政部长耶伦在美联储主席任上对货币政策重回正常化的巨大努力可能再次在财政——货币政策同向传导链条上再度上演。预计2021年美国联邦财政赤字率会有较大幅度的收窄，初步预计降至8%-10%左右，所需财政融资将较今年大幅减少。明年财政融资节奏预期的放缓，意味着国债等今年扩表的主要资产选项，在明年无法再支持如今年一样快的美联储扩表速度。\n\n3.美国卫生事件虽迎来第三轮高峰，但政府和居民对卫生事件反应均有所钝化；而欧元区对卫生事件爆发仍然相当重视，并采取较为严格的管控措施。在这种情况下，欧元区四季度经济恢复面临着更大的不确定性。\n\n总结与分析\n综上，我们认为，随着卫生事件逐步稳定，美国经济数据及预期将不断改善，美国财政支出规模有可能缩减，进而使得美联储继续大规模购买国债的行为受到限制。美联储可能在经济数据符合其预期的情况下，开启新一轮“相对意义”上的缩表。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330227963,"gmtCreate":1608635101152,"gmtModify":1703735866572,"author":{"id":"3564430035906474","authorId":"3564430035906474","name":"猛猹猹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd81d38c12a40fb11a8f868c4c97776d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564430035906474","authorIdStr":"3564430035906474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>每天一遍，加持信仰！","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL.US)正寻求在2024年之前生产自动驾驶汽车，与特斯拉一较高下。</p><p>同时，该公司一路飙升的股价是富国银行认为投资者最好避开该股的原因之一。</p><p>此外，Harvey表示，“1999年之后，许多科技和成长型公司(市值)损失了50%到100%。但21世纪，一切都会以更快的速度进行。如果此前跌入谷底要花12个月的时间，那么现在可能只需要6个月。”</p><p> 此外，Chris Harvey还指出最有可能在2021年出现的十大情况：</p><p>1.特斯拉有可能成为21世纪的美国在线。</p><p>2.走势难看的股票开始多了起来。</p><p>3.共和党保住了对参议院的控制权。</p><p>4.大型公司的表现低于大盘平均表示。</p><p>5.2021年不够好。</p><p>6.加密货币作为首选的投机工具正在复苏。</p><p>7.卫生事件带来的打击和封锁损害特朗普为了连任给股市带来的增长。</p><p>8.标普股票回购水平较2019年水平翻倍。</p><p>9.小盘股反弹。</p><p>10.波动衰减放缓。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>富国银行2021年市场预测：历史正在重演，特斯拉(TSLA.US)或成为21世纪的美国在线</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n富国银行2021年市场预测：历史正在重演，特斯拉(TSLA.US)或成为21世纪的美国在线\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-28 14:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/384637.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，富国银行证券的股票策略主管Chris Harvey在接受媒体采访时表示，特斯拉(TSLA.US)有可能成为21世纪的美国在线(AOL)。Harvey称，“特斯拉(Tesla)与美国在线(AOL)类似，拥有改变游戏规则的技术，令人难以置信的业绩，在经历了惊人的上涨后，于12月下旬被纳入标准普尔500指数。这是一个具有开创性的事件。”因未能跟上快速发展的技术步伐，美国在线眼看着自己...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/384637.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76b3cc53dd60ecb6eab407da188d689","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/384637.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2094543910","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，富国银行证券的股票策略主管Chris Harvey在接受媒体采访时表示，特斯拉(TSLA.US)有可能成为21世纪的美国在线(AOL)。Harvey称，“特斯拉(Tesla)与美国在线(AOL)类似，拥有改变游戏规则的技术，令人难以置信的业绩，在经历了惊人的上涨后，于12月下旬被纳入标准普尔500指数。这是一个具有开创性的事件。”因未能跟上快速发展的技术步伐，美国在线眼看着自己的影响力分崩离析。Harvey警告说，特斯拉将来也可能会遭受类似的命运。上周，市场消息称苹果(AAPL.US)正寻求在2024年之前生产自动驾驶汽车，与特斯拉一较高下。同时，该公司一路飙升的股价是富国银行认为投资者最好避开该股的原因之一。此外，Harvey表示，“1999年之后，许多科技和成长型公司(市值)损失了50%到100%。但21世纪，一切都会以更快的速度进行。如果此前跌入谷底要花12个月的时间，那么现在可能只需要6个月。” 此外，Chris Harvey还指出最有可能在2021年出现的十大情况：1.特斯拉有可能成为21世纪的美国在线。2.走势难看的股票开始多了起来。3.共和党保住了对参议院的控制权。4.大型公司的表现低于大盘平均表示。5.2021年不够好。6.加密货币作为首选的投机工具正在复苏。7.卫生事件带来的打击和封锁损害特朗普为了连任给股市带来的增长。8.标普股票回购水平较2019年水平翻倍。9.小盘股反弹。10.波动衰减放缓。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339749789,"gmtCreate":1609123814441,"gmtModify":1703737688215,"author":{"id":"3564430035906474","authorId":"3564430035906474","name":"猛猹猹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd81d38c12a40fb11a8f868c4c97776d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564430035906474","authorIdStr":"3564430035906474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"签了！恭喜多头们！","listText":"签了！恭喜多头们！","text":"签了！恭喜多头们！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339749789","repostId":"1143438072","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143438072","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1609117544,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143438072?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-28 09:05","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"特朗普签署9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143438072","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据Politico：特朗普已签署新冠疫情纾困法案，使其成为法律。美国白宫证实，特朗普签署了总规模为9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案。现货黄金短线走高逾8美元，现报1895.4美元/盎司，现货","content":"<p>据Politico：特朗普已签署新冠疫情纾困法案，使其成为法律。</p><p>美国白宫证实，特朗普签署了总规模为9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案。</p><p>现货黄金短线走高逾8美元，现报1895.4美元/盎司，现货白银短线走高逾0.5美元，现报26.63美元/盎司。</p><p>数百万美国人的失业救济金于周六到期，此前特朗普曾拒绝签署一项2.3万亿美元的大流行援助和支出计划，他坚称该计划在帮助普通人方面做得不够。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普签署9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普签署9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-28 09:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据Politico：特朗普已签署新冠疫情纾困法案，使其成为法律。</p><p>美国白宫证实，特朗普签署了总规模为9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案。</p><p>现货黄金短线走高逾8美元，现报1895.4美元/盎司，现货白银短线走高逾0.5美元，现报26.63美元/盎司。</p><p>数百万美国人的失业救济金于周六到期，此前特朗普曾拒绝签署一项2.3万亿美元的大流行援助和支出计划，他坚称该计划在帮助普通人方面做得不够。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae2ff4f0dbefc0001a653cf1719d84fa","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143438072","content_text":"据Politico：特朗普已签署新冠疫情纾困法案，使其成为法律。美国白宫证实，特朗普签署了总规模为9000亿美元的新冠纾困法案和政府拨款法案。现货黄金短线走高逾8美元，现报1895.4美元/盎司，现货白银短线走高逾0.5美元，现报26.63美元/盎司。数百万美国人的失业救济金于周六到期，此前特朗普曾拒绝签署一项2.3万亿美元的大流行援助和支出计划，他坚称该计划在帮助普通人方面做得不够。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339432463,"gmtCreate":1609006433152,"gmtModify":1703737479506,"author":{"id":"3564430035906474","authorId":"3564430035906474","name":"猛猹猹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd81d38c12a40fb11a8f868c4c97776d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564430035906474","authorIdStr":"3564430035906474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写这个的分析师是弱智么？毫无逻辑，全凭臆测","listText":"写这个的分析师是弱智么？毫无逻辑，全凭臆测","text":"写这个的分析师是弱智么？毫无逻辑，全凭臆测","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339432463","repostId":"1172427302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172427302","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1608866731,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172427302?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-25 11:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"股市面临“断水”？美联储明年会缩表吗","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172427302","media":"申万宏源香港","summary":"美联储调整资产购买前瞻指引，可能是提前缩减购买规模的前兆。","content":"<p><b>宏观分析</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储调整资产购买前瞻指引，可能是提前缩减购买规模的前兆</b></p>\n<p>1.美联储公布12月议息会议声明，调整了资产购买计划的前瞻指引。资产购买的步伐与此前并无二致，但增加了未来资产购买计划发生变化的依据。</p>\n<p>2.我们认为此次调整表明美联储认为未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的，是对未来经济持相对乐观态度的表现。在11月议息会议纪要中，美联储表示准备调整资产购买的指引，有一些与会者考虑到未来经济前景的不确定性而对这一调整有所犹豫。但本次议息会议将这一设想迅速落地，表明本次会议上，更多的与会者认同未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的。</p>\n<p>3.本次会后同时公布的经济预测总结(SEP)也大幅上调了美国的经济展望，传递出美联储明显更为乐观的判断。本次SEP大幅上调20Q4实际GDP同比1.3个百分点至-2.4%，并分别小幅上调21Q4、22Q4实际GDP同比预测0.2个百分点至4.2%、3.2%。从经济指标预测分布来看，美联储内部对于今明两年经济指标的预测较9月时有明显的集中趋势，说明美联储认为中期经济运行的整体不确定性的确不如此前展望那么严峻。</p>\n<p>4.美联储此次声明对资产购买前瞻指引和SEP的调整可能是提前缩减资产购买规模的前兆。11月会议纪要中表示，市场参与者普遍预期2021年美联储将继续维持当前的资产购买节奏，2022年才开始逐渐缩减购买规模。但是美联储在11月纪要和此次声明中都强调资产购买前瞻指引是“基于产出的”，且“实质性进展”的模糊表述隐含的意义或许不是推迟缩减资产购买规模的时间，而恰恰是在经济展望变得乐观的情况下的提前开展。<b>我们预计，自2021年开始，由于对美国经济的展望较此前有较为明显的改善，从而美国财政赤字可能迎来比较明显的收缩，带动美联储扩表速度同步明显放慢，而自2022年开始，美联储有望开启新一轮但更为困难的缩表过程。</b></p>\n<p><b>美2021年美联储扩表速度与财政融资密切相关</b></p>\n<p>1.与08-09年美联储第一轮量化宽松相比，今年美联储扩表的一个主要特征是以购买国债为主，而非MBS。08-09年，由于危机肇始于金融体系内部，危机之初并不需要大量的财政刺激，所以政府发行债券较少，美联储购买的资产也以MBS和其他债券为主。2009年，美联储购买国债和MBS的规模分别为3006.7亿美元和9082.6亿美元，后者为前者的三倍。直到2010年底开始的第二轮量化宽松，美联储购买国债的比例才有所上升。但是今年由于美国财政支出大幅增加，国债发行量激增，美联储购买的资产也以国债为主，购买MBS的量并不多。从美联储持有资产的余额来看，今年7-11月，美联储购买国债月均818.4亿美元，和计划基本相符;但是MBS月均仅增加120.3亿美元，MBS的净增量其实是远低于400亿的资产购买计划的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dadc0566a73b252a432e415d07894ed0\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"442\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59abab8f7622b85aa5ba647afaa8df77\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>2.民主党有财政平衡的传统，2021年财政赤字率预计维持高位但弱于2020年。美国候任总统拜登在竞选过程中也明确主张增加高收入群体、金融交易的相关税收。另外，美国提名财政部长耶伦在美联储主席任上对货币政策重回正常化的巨大努力可能再次在财政——货币政策同向传导链条上再度上演。预计2021年美国联邦财政赤字率会有较大幅度的收窄，初步预计降至8%-10%左右，所需财政融资将较今年大幅减少。<b>明年财政融资节奏预期的放缓，意味着国债等今年扩表的主要资产选项，在明年无法再支持如今年一样快的美联储扩表速度。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30dcc779d56048a4e47ef335fa96fe5\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"461\"></p>\n<p>3.美国卫生事件虽迎来第三轮高峰，但政府和居民对卫生事件反应均有所钝化；而欧元区对卫生事件爆发仍然相当重视，并采取较为严格的管控措施。在这种情况下，<b>欧元区四季度经济恢复面临着更大的不确定性。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e860f916a3c6691a3fc968b7a448965b\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"446\"></p>\n<p><b>总结与分析</b></p>\n<p><b>综上，我们认为，随着卫生事件逐步稳定，美国经济数据及预期将不断改善，美国财政支出规模有可能缩减，进而使得美联储继续大规模购买国债的行为受到限制。美联储可能在经济数据符合其预期的情况下，开启新一轮“相对意义”上的缩表。</b></p>","source":"lsy1608866559813","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股市面临“断水”？美联储明年会缩表吗</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股市面临“断水”？美联储明年会缩表吗\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-25 11:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/383924.html><strong>申万宏源香港</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>宏观分析\n美联储调整资产购买前瞻指引，可能是提前缩减购买规模的前兆\n1.美联储公布12月议息会议声明，调整了资产购买计划的前瞻指引。资产购买的步伐与此前并无二致，但增加了未来资产购买计划发生变化的依据。\n2.我们认为此次调整表明美联储认为未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的，是对未来经济持相对乐观态度的表现。在11月议息会议纪要中，美联储表示准备调整资产购买的指引，有一些与会者考虑到未来经济前景的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/383924.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/383924.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172427302","content_text":"宏观分析\n美联储调整资产购买前瞻指引，可能是提前缩减购买规模的前兆\n1.美联储公布12月议息会议声明，调整了资产购买计划的前瞻指引。资产购买的步伐与此前并无二致，但增加了未来资产购买计划发生变化的依据。\n2.我们认为此次调整表明美联储认为未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的，是对未来经济持相对乐观态度的表现。在11月议息会议纪要中，美联储表示准备调整资产购买的指引，有一些与会者考虑到未来经济前景的不确定性而对这一调整有所犹豫。但本次议息会议将这一设想迅速落地，表明本次会议上，更多的与会者认同未来经济恢复的不确定性是有所缓和的。\n3.本次会后同时公布的经济预测总结(SEP)也大幅上调了美国的经济展望，传递出美联储明显更为乐观的判断。本次SEP大幅上调20Q4实际GDP同比1.3个百分点至-2.4%，并分别小幅上调21Q4、22Q4实际GDP同比预测0.2个百分点至4.2%、3.2%。从经济指标预测分布来看，美联储内部对于今明两年经济指标的预测较9月时有明显的集中趋势，说明美联储认为中期经济运行的整体不确定性的确不如此前展望那么严峻。\n4.美联储此次声明对资产购买前瞻指引和SEP的调整可能是提前缩减资产购买规模的前兆。11月会议纪要中表示，市场参与者普遍预期2021年美联储将继续维持当前的资产购买节奏，2022年才开始逐渐缩减购买规模。但是美联储在11月纪要和此次声明中都强调资产购买前瞻指引是“基于产出的”，且“实质性进展”的模糊表述隐含的意义或许不是推迟缩减资产购买规模的时间，而恰恰是在经济展望变得乐观的情况下的提前开展。我们预计，自2021年开始，由于对美国经济的展望较此前有较为明显的改善，从而美国财政赤字可能迎来比较明显的收缩，带动美联储扩表速度同步明显放慢，而自2022年开始，美联储有望开启新一轮但更为困难的缩表过程。\n美2021年美联储扩表速度与财政融资密切相关\n1.与08-09年美联储第一轮量化宽松相比，今年美联储扩表的一个主要特征是以购买国债为主，而非MBS。08-09年，由于危机肇始于金融体系内部，危机之初并不需要大量的财政刺激，所以政府发行债券较少，美联储购买的资产也以MBS和其他债券为主。2009年，美联储购买国债和MBS的规模分别为3006.7亿美元和9082.6亿美元，后者为前者的三倍。直到2010年底开始的第二轮量化宽松，美联储购买国债的比例才有所上升。但是今年由于美国财政支出大幅增加，国债发行量激增，美联储购买的资产也以国债为主，购买MBS的量并不多。从美联储持有资产的余额来看，今年7-11月，美联储购买国债月均818.4亿美元，和计划基本相符;但是MBS月均仅增加120.3亿美元，MBS的净增量其实是远低于400亿的资产购买计划的。\n\n\n2.民主党有财政平衡的传统，2021年财政赤字率预计维持高位但弱于2020年。美国候任总统拜登在竞选过程中也明确主张增加高收入群体、金融交易的相关税收。另外，美国提名财政部长耶伦在美联储主席任上对货币政策重回正常化的巨大努力可能再次在财政——货币政策同向传导链条上再度上演。预计2021年美国联邦财政赤字率会有较大幅度的收窄，初步预计降至8%-10%左右，所需财政融资将较今年大幅减少。明年财政融资节奏预期的放缓，意味着国债等今年扩表的主要资产选项，在明年无法再支持如今年一样快的美联储扩表速度。\n\n3.美国卫生事件虽迎来第三轮高峰，但政府和居民对卫生事件反应均有所钝化；而欧元区对卫生事件爆发仍然相当重视，并采取较为严格的管控措施。在这种情况下，欧元区四季度经济恢复面临着更大的不确定性。\n\n总结与分析\n综上，我们认为，随着卫生事件逐步稳定，美国经济数据及预期将不断改善，美国财政支出规模有可能缩减，进而使得美联储继续大规模购买国债的行为受到限制。美联储可能在经济数据符合其预期的情况下，开启新一轮“相对意义”上的缩表。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396259653,"gmtCreate":1607134296172,"gmtModify":1703846670294,"author":{"id":"3564430035906474","authorId":"3564430035906474","name":"猛猹猹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd81d38c12a40fb11a8f868c4c97776d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3564430035906474","authorIdStr":"3564430035906474"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"学费交足就可以克服了","listText":"学费交足就可以克服了","text":"学费交足就可以克服了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396259653","repostId":"396203826","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}