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Sugar Rush - Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$Citigroup(C)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$Citigroup(C)$[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3b45856b9f6777e73caec61091e092","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364005891","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365975587,"gmtCreate":1614694665249,"gmtModify":1703479969370,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$American Airlines(AAL)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$American 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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365972979","repostId":"1103406593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103406593","pubTimestamp":1614693752,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103406593?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-02 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sugar Rush - Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103406593","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash.\n","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash.</li>\n <li>The vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial inputs which are not indefinitely sustainable.</li>\n <li>There is a massive disconnect between the \"stock market\" and the \"real economy.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash. As every parent knows, giving a child too much \"sugar\" leads to a \"rush\" of energy. Then comes the crash, where you find them in some odd place taking a nap.</p>\n<p>The Coming Economic \"Rush\"</p>\n<p>Recently, JPMorgan joined the rest of the Wall Street banks in predicting a surge in economic activity for 2021 of 6.4%. Of course, the entire reasoning behind the rise in activity was due to \"stimulus.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"In a note to clients, JPM's chief economist Michael Feroli made the following forecast revisions:\n</blockquote>\n<p>The statement quickly lays out the premise of the \"rush and crash\" syndrome.</p>\n<p>The chart below shows annual real GDP growth rates from 2008 to the present. The surge in GDP in 2021 is a continuation of the \"sugar rush\" of monetary interventions. However, notice economic growth \"crashes\" back to annual norms in 2022.</p>\n<p>The dashed black line is the average annual growth of GDP from 2007 at just 1.7%. (Without the addition of JPMorgan's estimates, the actual growth rate through 2020 was only 1.3%).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9629eb53dc18f1655fe49df3259efb8e\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>For reference, a rate of growth below 2% isn't strong enough to absorb population growth.</p>\n<blockquote>\n (Note: Prior to 2000, an economic growth rate of 2% was considered \"pre-recessionary.\" In order to justify excess spending and Government interventions, 2% growth is now considered a \"success\" of policy.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>It's All Been Artificial</b></p>\n<p>Here is the more significant issue. The vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial inputs which are not indefinitely sustainable. From increasing federal expenditures:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2516f49b7c1565d8d1451ce1c82f702d\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>And a litany of \"bailouts,\" which are a function of increased debts and deficits and massive monetary interventions.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724349a20ecbb1ec296a5399d6d3472e\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>While the economy may have \"appeared\" to grow during this period, economic growth would have been \"negative\" without debt increases. The chart below shows what economic growth would be without the increases in Federal debt.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/254442d01aca7a78e94a8ad57f5a3c8c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Such is why, after more than a decade of monetary and fiscal interventions totaling more than$37 trillionand counting, the economy remains on \"life support.\"</p>\n<p>(It required roughly $12 in support to generate $1 of economic growth.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245086ab1ba07a40241fb1b03a647762\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"476\"></p>\n<p>While the claims of a robust economy rely heavily upon a surge in consumer spending, it is a mirage of the increase in \"social benefits.\"</p>\n<p><b>Real Incomes Not Improving</b></p>\n<p>A significant problem with a bulk of the analysis put out by mainstream economists, and the media is that it often fails to examine the underlying causes. An excellent example has been that consumer incomes are surging, which will support the economic \"sugar rush.\" A look at the chart below would undoubtedly suggest that to be true.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209cc9c414434eee3f179dfde40d0155\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"490\"></p>\n<p>However, the reality is much less optimistic when you strip out \"government transfer payments.\" While the economy has rebounded, real disposable incomes remain below previous highs. Notably, of the next $1.9 trillion in stimulus, only roughly $900 billion flows to households. Such won't boost incomes markedly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce655a76accf67d1d60c0b7f02242c1c\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"490\"></p>\n<p>The chart below shows the problem more clearly. As noted above, the \"real\" economic prosperity of household incomes has not improved markedly without government supports. Such is why, at roughly 2% economic growth, nearly 1-in-3 households are dependent on some form of government handout.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb264f1eabee006ba8d182a2162ad101\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"574\"></p>\n<p><b>A Surge In The \"Welfare Trap\"</b></p>\n<p>There is a massive disconnect between the \"stock market\" and the \"real economy.\" As we have discussed previously, the top10% of income earners own nearly 90%of the stock market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd9a5efcc6666d6d4fd8861a0ceea4a\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"517\"></p>\n<p>For the bottom 80%, which drives the bulk of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), they continue to struggle to make ends meet. Such is why the dependency on social welfare now comprises one-third of total incomes. Other statistics are just as daunting.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>38 million Americans on food stamps</p></li>\n <li><p>According to the Census Bureau, an estimated 50% of the 330 million Americans get at least one federal benefit.</p></li>\n <li><p>An estimated 63 million get Social Security; 59.9 million get Medicare; 75 million get Medicaid; 5 million get housing subsidies, and 4 million get Veterans' benefits.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Those numbers continue to rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e9a46308e827715af3777b1586ce189\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"491\"></p>\n<p>Without government largesse, many individuals would be living on the street. The chart above shows all the government \"welfare\" programs and current levels to date.</p>\n<p>The problem with \"stimulus programs\" is that you can see the immediate subsequent contraction once the benefit depletes. Since one-third of incomes dependent on government transfers, it is not surprising that the economy struggles as recycled tax dollars used for consumption purposes have virtually no impact on the overall economy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11738fa36d2bea285ea86c1eb6b8b7a\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"490\"></p>\n<p>In fact, in the ongoing saga of the American economy's demise, U.S. households are now getting more in cash handouts from the government than they are paying in taxes for the first time since the Great Depression.</p>\n<p>Such occurs when the current administration remains enthralled with finding some universe where socialistic programs lead to sustainable economic growth.</p>\n<p>It doesn't.</p>\n<p>The Coming \"Crash\"</p>\n<p>As the stimulus hits consumers, they spend it rather quickly, which leads to a \"sugar rush\" of economic activity. Such as:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p>Consumers use the funds to make either necessary or discretionary purchases creating demand.</p></li>\n <li><p>In anticipation of demand, companies boost \"inventories.\"</p></li>\n <li><p>The boost in \"inventory stocking\" boosts manufacturing metrics.</p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>We are seeing this currently as manufacturing and inventory metrics surge.</p>\n<p>As shown, the stimulus will lead to a short-term boost in PCE, which will correspond with increased economic growth. (PCE comprises nearly 70% of the calculation.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6516b0d8f4641bb54be6c447fd64a5af\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"479\"></p>\n<p>However, there is a \"dark side\" to stimulus-fueled activity.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p>Since companies know the stimulus is \"temporary,\" they don't make long-term hiring and capital expenditure plans.</p></li>\n <li><p>The increase in activity leads to an inflationary rise that companies have difficulty passing on to consumers, ultimately reducing profit margins.</p></li>\n <li><p>Again, since companies know the stimulus is temporary, they opt for \"efficiencies,\" such as outsourcing and automation, to lower labor and production costs.</p></li>\n <li><p>After the stimulus gets depleted, consumers struggle with higher costs which further deteriorates their standard of living.</p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>Unless the Government is committed to a continuous stimulus, once the \"sugar rush\" fades, the economy will \"crash\" back to its organic state.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0ad408722f4e7b0e53228cbd75e567\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"477\"></p>\n<p>The bottom line is that America can't grow its way back to prosperity on the back of social assistance. The average American is fighting to make ends meet as their living cost rises while wage growth remains stagnant.</p>\n<p><b>Deflation Set To Return</b></p>\n<p>That brings us to the hard truth.</p>\n<p>If we assume even the most optimistic economic outcome of the current stimulus bill, the reality is that economic growth will remain mired in its long-term downtrend.</p>\n<p>As the budget deficit grows over the next few years, interest payments alone will absorb a larger chunk of tax revenue. Such comes at a time when that same dollar of tax revenue only covers the entitlement spending of the 75 million baby boomers migrating into the social safety net.</p>\n<p>By the way, the only other time government income support exceeded taxes paid was during the \"Great Depression\" from 1931 to 1936.</p>\n<p>The debt problem remains a massive risk to monetary and fiscal policy. If rates rise, the negative impact on an indebted economy quickly depresses activity. More importantly, the decline in monetary velocity clearly shows that deflation is a persistent threat.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383872d3c785e619d2a2d346e89a0175\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"569\"></p>\n<p><b>No Real Options</b></p>\n<p>There are no real options unless the system is allowed to reset painfully.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, given we now have a decade of experience of watching monetary experiments only succeed in creating a massive \"wealth gap,\" maybe we should consider the alternative.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, the Federal Reserve, and the Administration, will have to face hard choices to extricate the economy from the current\"liquidity trap.\"However, history shows that political leadership never makes hard choices until those choices get forced upon them.</p>\n<p>Most telling is the current economists' inability, who maintain our monetary and fiscal policies, to realize the problem of trying to \"cure a debt problem with more debt.\"</p>\n<p>The Keynesian view that \"more money in people's pockets\" will drive up consumer spending, with a boost to GDP being the result, has been wrong. It hasn't happened in 40 years.</p>\n<p>As Dr. Woody Brock aptly argues:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"It is truly 'American Gridlock' as the real crisis lies between the choices of 'austerity' and continued government 'largesse.' One choice leads to long-term economic prosperity for all; the other doesn't.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>Take your pick.</p>\n<p>While we likely see a spark of inflation, it probably won't last long. Eventually, the grip of the debt-driven deflationary cycle will regain its burdensome hold.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sugar Rush - Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSugar Rush - Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-02 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410290-sugar-rush-why-the-economy-will-run-hot-then-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash.\nThe vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410290-sugar-rush-why-the-economy-will-run-hot-then-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410290-sugar-rush-why-the-economy-will-run-hot-then-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1103406593","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash.\nThe vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial inputs which are not indefinitely sustainable.\nThere is a massive disconnect between the \"stock market\" and the \"real economy.\"\n\nThe expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash. As every parent knows, giving a child too much \"sugar\" leads to a \"rush\" of energy. Then comes the crash, where you find them in some odd place taking a nap.\nThe Coming Economic \"Rush\"\nRecently, JPMorgan joined the rest of the Wall Street banks in predicting a surge in economic activity for 2021 of 6.4%. Of course, the entire reasoning behind the rise in activity was due to \"stimulus.\"\n\n \"In a note to clients, JPM's chief economist Michael Feroli made the following forecast revisions:\n\nThe statement quickly lays out the premise of the \"rush and crash\" syndrome.\nThe chart below shows annual real GDP growth rates from 2008 to the present. The surge in GDP in 2021 is a continuation of the \"sugar rush\" of monetary interventions. However, notice economic growth \"crashes\" back to annual norms in 2022.\nThe dashed black line is the average annual growth of GDP from 2007 at just 1.7%. (Without the addition of JPMorgan's estimates, the actual growth rate through 2020 was only 1.3%).\n\nFor reference, a rate of growth below 2% isn't strong enough to absorb population growth.\n\n (Note: Prior to 2000, an economic growth rate of 2% was considered \"pre-recessionary.\" In order to justify excess spending and Government interventions, 2% growth is now considered a \"success\" of policy.\"\n\nIt's All Been Artificial\nHere is the more significant issue. The vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial inputs which are not indefinitely sustainable. From increasing federal expenditures:\n\nAnd a litany of \"bailouts,\" which are a function of increased debts and deficits and massive monetary interventions.\n\nWhile the economy may have \"appeared\" to grow during this period, economic growth would have been \"negative\" without debt increases. The chart below shows what economic growth would be without the increases in Federal debt.\n\nSuch is why, after more than a decade of monetary and fiscal interventions totaling more than$37 trillionand counting, the economy remains on \"life support.\"\n(It required roughly $12 in support to generate $1 of economic growth.)\n\nWhile the claims of a robust economy rely heavily upon a surge in consumer spending, it is a mirage of the increase in \"social benefits.\"\nReal Incomes Not Improving\nA significant problem with a bulk of the analysis put out by mainstream economists, and the media is that it often fails to examine the underlying causes. An excellent example has been that consumer incomes are surging, which will support the economic \"sugar rush.\" A look at the chart below would undoubtedly suggest that to be true.\n\nHowever, the reality is much less optimistic when you strip out \"government transfer payments.\" While the economy has rebounded, real disposable incomes remain below previous highs. Notably, of the next $1.9 trillion in stimulus, only roughly $900 billion flows to households. Such won't boost incomes markedly.\n\nThe chart below shows the problem more clearly. As noted above, the \"real\" economic prosperity of household incomes has not improved markedly without government supports. Such is why, at roughly 2% economic growth, nearly 1-in-3 households are dependent on some form of government handout.\n\nA Surge In The \"Welfare Trap\"\nThere is a massive disconnect between the \"stock market\" and the \"real economy.\" As we have discussed previously, the top10% of income earners own nearly 90%of the stock market.\n\nFor the bottom 80%, which drives the bulk of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), they continue to struggle to make ends meet. Such is why the dependency on social welfare now comprises one-third of total incomes. Other statistics are just as daunting.\n\n38 million Americans on food stamps\nAccording to the Census Bureau, an estimated 50% of the 330 million Americans get at least one federal benefit.\nAn estimated 63 million get Social Security; 59.9 million get Medicare; 75 million get Medicaid; 5 million get housing subsidies, and 4 million get Veterans' benefits.\n\nThose numbers continue to rise.\n\nWithout government largesse, many individuals would be living on the street. The chart above shows all the government \"welfare\" programs and current levels to date.\nThe problem with \"stimulus programs\" is that you can see the immediate subsequent contraction once the benefit depletes. Since one-third of incomes dependent on government transfers, it is not surprising that the economy struggles as recycled tax dollars used for consumption purposes have virtually no impact on the overall economy.\n\nIn fact, in the ongoing saga of the American economy's demise, U.S. households are now getting more in cash handouts from the government than they are paying in taxes for the first time since the Great Depression.\nSuch occurs when the current administration remains enthralled with finding some universe where socialistic programs lead to sustainable economic growth.\nIt doesn't.\nThe Coming \"Crash\"\nAs the stimulus hits consumers, they spend it rather quickly, which leads to a \"sugar rush\" of economic activity. Such as:\n\nConsumers use the funds to make either necessary or discretionary purchases creating demand.\nIn anticipation of demand, companies boost \"inventories.\"\nThe boost in \"inventory stocking\" boosts manufacturing metrics.\n\nWe are seeing this currently as manufacturing and inventory metrics surge.\nAs shown, the stimulus will lead to a short-term boost in PCE, which will correspond with increased economic growth. (PCE comprises nearly 70% of the calculation.)\n\nHowever, there is a \"dark side\" to stimulus-fueled activity.\n\nSince companies know the stimulus is \"temporary,\" they don't make long-term hiring and capital expenditure plans.\nThe increase in activity leads to an inflationary rise that companies have difficulty passing on to consumers, ultimately reducing profit margins.\nAgain, since companies know the stimulus is temporary, they opt for \"efficiencies,\" such as outsourcing and automation, to lower labor and production costs.\nAfter the stimulus gets depleted, consumers struggle with higher costs which further deteriorates their standard of living.\n\nUnless the Government is committed to a continuous stimulus, once the \"sugar rush\" fades, the economy will \"crash\" back to its organic state.\n\nThe bottom line is that America can't grow its way back to prosperity on the back of social assistance. The average American is fighting to make ends meet as their living cost rises while wage growth remains stagnant.\nDeflation Set To Return\nThat brings us to the hard truth.\nIf we assume even the most optimistic economic outcome of the current stimulus bill, the reality is that economic growth will remain mired in its long-term downtrend.\nAs the budget deficit grows over the next few years, interest payments alone will absorb a larger chunk of tax revenue. Such comes at a time when that same dollar of tax revenue only covers the entitlement spending of the 75 million baby boomers migrating into the social safety net.\nBy the way, the only other time government income support exceeded taxes paid was during the \"Great Depression\" from 1931 to 1936.\nThe debt problem remains a massive risk to monetary and fiscal policy. If rates rise, the negative impact on an indebted economy quickly depresses activity. More importantly, the decline in monetary velocity clearly shows that deflation is a persistent threat.\n\nNo Real Options\nThere are no real options unless the system is allowed to reset painfully.\nUnfortunately, given we now have a decade of experience of watching monetary experiments only succeed in creating a massive \"wealth gap,\" maybe we should consider the alternative.\nUltimately, the Federal Reserve, and the Administration, will have to face hard choices to extricate the economy from the current\"liquidity trap.\"However, history shows that political leadership never makes hard choices until those choices get forced upon them.\nMost telling is the current economists' inability, who maintain our monetary and fiscal policies, to realize the problem of trying to \"cure a debt problem with more debt.\"\nThe Keynesian view that \"more money in people's pockets\" will drive up consumer spending, with a boost to GDP being the result, has been wrong. It hasn't happened in 40 years.\nAs Dr. Woody Brock aptly argues:\n\n \"It is truly 'American Gridlock' as the real crisis lies between the choices of 'austerity' and continued government 'largesse.' One choice leads to long-term economic prosperity for all; the other doesn't.\"\n\nTake your pick.\nWhile we likely see a spark of inflation, it probably won't last long. Eventually, the grip of the debt-driven deflationary cycle will regain its burdensome hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365976235,"gmtCreate":1614694529327,"gmtModify":1703479966119,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365976235","repostId":"1145359061","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145359061","pubTimestamp":1614694002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145359061?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-02 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Breakfast: A Greener World","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145359061","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Petaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first city in the U.S. to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. The legislation will also outlaw new pumps at existing stations and streamline the process for adding more EV infrastructure like electric charging bays and hydrogen fuel cell facilities. The new prohibition is part of Petaluma's plan to completely phase out carbon emissions by 2030, though other environmental groups  are ","content":"<p><b>A greener world</b></p>\n<p>Petaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first city in the U.S. to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. The legislation will also outlaw new pumps at existing stations and streamline the process for adding more EV infrastructure like electric charging bays and hydrogen fuel cell facilities. The new prohibition is part of Petaluma's plan to completely phase out carbon emissions by 2030, though other environmental groups (like CONGAS) are pushing for a ban on the entire Sonoma County, which includes Petaluma and eight other cities.</p>\n<p>\"The goal here is to move away from fossil fuels and to make it as easy as possible to do that,\" said D'Lynda Fischer, the city councilor who introduced the measure. \"Right now, we have existing fossil fuel stations, and what we want them to do is add [electric vehicle] chargers and create another source of fueling people can use.\"</p>\n<p><i>Bigger picture:</i>There are an estimated 450,000 brownfield sites in the U.S., or areas where expansion, redevelopment, or reuse may be complicated by the presence of a hazardous substance. According to the EPA, approximately <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-half of them are thought to be impacted by petroleum, much of it from leaking underground storage tanks at old gas stations. The sites \"blight the surrounding neighborhoods, threaten human health and the environment and can contaminate groundwater.\"</p>\n<p><b>Outlook:</b>While the latest move is taking place at the grassroots level, there are other developments happening at the state level in California. Last year, the state banned the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035 and will require 75% of heavy trucks sold locally to be electric by that date. There are also plans to build an electric highway along the Pacific Coast. A host of policies are also being prepared at the federal level, like the Biden administration's $2T climate and infrastructure plan, which couldboost renewables and other sustainable stocks.(96 comments)</p>\n<p><b>Warming to plans on carbon pricing</b></p>\n<p>After hitting a pandemic low in April, global emissions rebounded strongly and were 2%, or 60M tons, higher in December 2020 than they were in the same month a year earlier, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency. This should serve a \"stark warning\" that not enough is being done to accelerate clean energy transitions worldwide, added Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. Major economies led the resurgence as a pick-up in economic activity pushed energy demand higher, while significant measures to boost clean energy were lacking.</p>\n<p>Quote:\"If governments don't move quickly with the right energy policies, this could put at risk the world’s historic opportunity to make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions,\" Birol continued. \"In March 2020, the IEA urged governments to put clean energy at the heart of their economic stimulus plans to ensure a sustainable recovery. But our numbers show we are returning to carbon-intensive business-as-usual.\"</p>\n<p>It's easier said than done. The latest report card from the United Nations showed that 75 signatories to the Paris climate accord - responsible for a third of global emissions - \"fell far short\" of what is needed to meet the deal's goals. If those targets were implemented, their combined emissions would fall just 0.5% by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels), which is far lower than the 45% fall in global emissions needed to limit warming to 1.5C. No new commitments have yet been put forward by China, India and the U.S., though the latter is expected to do so before the Biden administration hosts a climate summit on April 22.</p>\n<p><b>New economy?</b>The American Petroleum Institute, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the most powerful trade associations in Washington, is preparing toendorsesetting a price on carbon emissions in what would \"lead to the most economic paths to achieve the ambitions of the Paris Agreement.\" \"API supports economy-wide carbon pricing as the primary government climate policy instrument to reduce CO2 emissions while helping keep energy affordable, instead of mandates or prescriptive regulatory action,\" according to a draft statement. A decade ago, API was one of the strongest opponents to a Congressional plan on carbon pricing, though it is now the latest of several to support a \"market-based\" approach following an announcement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in January. (4 comments)</p>\n<p><b>Next moves?</b></p>\n<p>Volatility may be making a comeback on Wall Street as stock index futures fell back overnight,down about 0.5%, following one of the best days since June. On Monday, the S&amp;P 500climbed 2.4%, the DJIA tacked onanother 2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Compositejumped over 3%after shedding 4.9% last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, which is keeping investors on edge, also slipped to a session low of 1.41% before drifting toward the flatline.</p>\n<p>Cyclical sectors like energy and financials are also continuing to outperform the broader market due to optimism about vaccines and economic resurgence, though some are cautioning the rotation is overdone. \"The value side of the equation - the 'go outside' trade - has really moved way too far and way too fast for where we are at this stage of the reopening,\" said Amanda Agati, who oversees $170B in assets at PNC Financial. \"We've seen this massive sentiment shift, but at the end of the day, we really haven't seen the underlying fundamentals improve in a big way.\" She's putting her money in 2020's winners, like the stay-at-home trade, which includes Big Tech.</p>\n<p>Keep on it:\"Everyone's chasing their shadows and saying it's rates here, it's inflation there. But those just aren't real,\" added Mike Dowdall, a portfolio manager at BMO Global Asset Management. Monday was a \"kind of a reckoning with the reality that the Fed's not moving anytime soon. It's really hard to paint a negative picture of this market.\"</p>\n<p>Warning bells:SA contributor Mott Capital Management feels now is not the time tobuy the dip, nor should the recent rally last or be trusted. \"The rise in real yields has massively underperformed the rise in 10-year Treasury rates. That has resulted in breakeven inflation rates moving sharply higher, which has helped send the wrong message overall to the equity market. But as real yields begin to play catch-up to the nominal 10-year rate, it's likely to push those breakeven inflation rates lower, resulting in equity prices following lower, causing massive volatility.\"</p>\n<p><b>Signs of reopening</b></p>\n<p>All 270 Apple Stores (AAPL) in the United States arenow openfor the first time in nearly a year, though some still have restrictions, such as being appointment-only. Stores in Texas were the last to reopen following additional delays caused by an Arctic blast in February. That milestone, along with news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B) isstill bullishon its 5.4% stake in the iPhone maker, sent shares of Appleup more than 5%on Monday for their biggest gain in more than four months.</p>\n<p>Backdrop:On March 13, 2020, Apple closed all of its retail stores outside of China due to the spreading pandemic. Since then, Apple has opened and closed stores around the world based on local lockdown restrictions and spiking COVID-19 cases. The only Apple Stores that are still closed worldwide are about a dozen in Brazil and France (outlets in Mexico reopen today).</p>\n<p>The opening of Apple stores is more an indicator of improving retail health than a financial tailwind for the company. In fact, the retail store closures didn't even hurt Apple's sales, with iPhone revenues smashing analyst estimates last quarter, driven by iPhone 12 strength.</p>\n<p>Analyst notes:Last month, JPMorgan analyst William Yang said weak demand for Apple's iPhone 12 mini could lead to a Q2 production halt for the device. Noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is now out with anew notepredicting the iPhone 13 family will match 12 in the number of devices and sizes, which means a 13 mini will be on offer. He also said that all 2021 models will include a Lightning and a reduced notch area, while the higher-end 13 Pro and 13 Pro Max will have an upgraded ultra-wide camera andLiDAR. (32 comments)</p>\n<p><b>Vaccine passports</b></p>\n<p>On March 17, the European Commission is set toproposean EU-wide digital certificate that provides the proof of the status of COVID-19 vaccination, Reuters reports. With the \"digital green pass,\" the 27-member bloc also expects to cooperate with international organizations to ensure that the system also works outside the region. The move is aimed at promoting safer travel within the region as well as abroad for work or tourism, according to Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.</p>\n<p>Potential problems?Vaccine distrust is a persistent issue in Europe, with only 59% of people in Western Europe trusting the safety of vaccines compared to 79% worldwide, according to a Wellcome Global Monitor survey in 2018. Compound that with privacy issues, as well as security and patient rights. EU countries would also be free to set their own criteria for entry, but broadly open borders make that a difficult task.</p>\n<p>Both messenger RNA-based COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE,BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA) have received a regulatory nod in the EU along with the vector-based jab developed by AstraZeneca (AZN) in partnership with the University of Oxford. Meanwhile, a shot from Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ) - the latest to receive FDA approval - is likely to undergo European regulatory review early this month.</p>\n<p>Elsewhere in Europe:The U.K. has beendebatinga so-called COVID-19 vaccine passport, which would enable residents to get into bars and grocery stores in the future, according to Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. \"It's something that hasn’t been ruled out and it's under consideration, but of course you've got to make it workable,\" he toldLBC Radioin February. Other British officials have pushed back on the possibility. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the country is exploring vaccine certificates for international travel, but a so-called vaccine passport was not something that would be required to access local services. (78 comments)</p>\n<p>What else is happening...</p>\n<p>Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF)is the next automaker to gofully electricby 2030.</p>\n<p>Vote of confidence...United(NASDAQ:UAL)buys 25 new Boeing(NYSE:BA)737 MAX jets.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>(NASDAQ:EBAY)willdivestU.K. classifieds sites to complete Adevinta deal.</p>\n<p>Walmart(NYSE:WMT)poaches two Goldman(NYSE:GS)bankers tobuildits fintech venture.</p>\n<p>SEC says Exxon(NYSE:XOM), Citi(NYSE:C)must let investors vote onESG issues.</p>\n<p>Monday's Key Earnings</p>\n<p>NIO&nbsp;-4.2%&nbsp;A&nbsp;Hposting mixed Q4 results.</p>\n<p>Novavax )-4.3%despite plans for a vaccine as early as May.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video&nbsp;+9.7%on robust guidance, WFH tailwinds.</p>\n<p><b>Today's Markets</b></p>\n<p><b>In Asia,</b>Japan-0.9%. Hong Kong-1.2%. China-1.2%. India+0.9%.</p>\n<p><b>In Europe,</b>at midday, London+0.5%. Paris+0.4%. Frankfurt+0.3%.</p>\n<p><b>Futures at 6:20,</b>Dow-0.3%. S&amp;P-0.5%. Nasdaq-0.5%. Crude-0.1%to $60.58. Gold+0.2%at $1726.10. Bitcoin+2%to $48755.</p>\n<p><b>Ten-year Treasury Yield</b>flat at 1.44%</p>\n<p><b>Today's Economic Calendar</b></p>\n<p><b>Auto Sales</b></p>\n<p>8:55&nbsp;Redbook Chain Store Sales</p>\n<p>1:00 PM&nbsp;Fed's Brainard: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Outlook</p>\n<p>2:00 PM&nbsp;Fed's Daly Speech</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Breakfast: A Greener World</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Breakfast: A Greener World\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-02 22:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410639-wall-street-breakfast-greener-world><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A greener world\nPetaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first city in the U.S. to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410639-wall-street-breakfast-greener-world\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410639-wall-street-breakfast-greener-world","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1145359061","content_text":"A greener world\nPetaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first city in the U.S. to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. The legislation will also outlaw new pumps at existing stations and streamline the process for adding more EV infrastructure like electric charging bays and hydrogen fuel cell facilities. The new prohibition is part of Petaluma's plan to completely phase out carbon emissions by 2030, though other environmental groups (like CONGAS) are pushing for a ban on the entire Sonoma County, which includes Petaluma and eight other cities.\n\"The goal here is to move away from fossil fuels and to make it as easy as possible to do that,\" said D'Lynda Fischer, the city councilor who introduced the measure. \"Right now, we have existing fossil fuel stations, and what we want them to do is add [electric vehicle] chargers and create another source of fueling people can use.\"\nBigger picture:There are an estimated 450,000 brownfield sites in the U.S., or areas where expansion, redevelopment, or reuse may be complicated by the presence of a hazardous substance. According to the EPA, approximately one-half of them are thought to be impacted by petroleum, much of it from leaking underground storage tanks at old gas stations. The sites \"blight the surrounding neighborhoods, threaten human health and the environment and can contaminate groundwater.\"\nOutlook:While the latest move is taking place at the grassroots level, there are other developments happening at the state level in California. Last year, the state banned the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035 and will require 75% of heavy trucks sold locally to be electric by that date. There are also plans to build an electric highway along the Pacific Coast. A host of policies are also being prepared at the federal level, like the Biden administration's $2T climate and infrastructure plan, which couldboost renewables and other sustainable stocks.(96 comments)\nWarming to plans on carbon pricing\nAfter hitting a pandemic low in April, global emissions rebounded strongly and were 2%, or 60M tons, higher in December 2020 than they were in the same month a year earlier, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency. This should serve a \"stark warning\" that not enough is being done to accelerate clean energy transitions worldwide, added Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. Major economies led the resurgence as a pick-up in economic activity pushed energy demand higher, while significant measures to boost clean energy were lacking.\nQuote:\"If governments don't move quickly with the right energy policies, this could put at risk the world’s historic opportunity to make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions,\" Birol continued. \"In March 2020, the IEA urged governments to put clean energy at the heart of their economic stimulus plans to ensure a sustainable recovery. But our numbers show we are returning to carbon-intensive business-as-usual.\"\nIt's easier said than done. The latest report card from the United Nations showed that 75 signatories to the Paris climate accord - responsible for a third of global emissions - \"fell far short\" of what is needed to meet the deal's goals. If those targets were implemented, their combined emissions would fall just 0.5% by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels), which is far lower than the 45% fall in global emissions needed to limit warming to 1.5C. No new commitments have yet been put forward by China, India and the U.S., though the latter is expected to do so before the Biden administration hosts a climate summit on April 22.\nNew economy?The American Petroleum Institute, one of the most powerful trade associations in Washington, is preparing toendorsesetting a price on carbon emissions in what would \"lead to the most economic paths to achieve the ambitions of the Paris Agreement.\" \"API supports economy-wide carbon pricing as the primary government climate policy instrument to reduce CO2 emissions while helping keep energy affordable, instead of mandates or prescriptive regulatory action,\" according to a draft statement. A decade ago, API was one of the strongest opponents to a Congressional plan on carbon pricing, though it is now the latest of several to support a \"market-based\" approach following an announcement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in January. (4 comments)\nNext moves?\nVolatility may be making a comeback on Wall Street as stock index futures fell back overnight,down about 0.5%, following one of the best days since June. On Monday, the S&P 500climbed 2.4%, the DJIA tacked onanother 2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Compositejumped over 3%after shedding 4.9% last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, which is keeping investors on edge, also slipped to a session low of 1.41% before drifting toward the flatline.\nCyclical sectors like energy and financials are also continuing to outperform the broader market due to optimism about vaccines and economic resurgence, though some are cautioning the rotation is overdone. \"The value side of the equation - the 'go outside' trade - has really moved way too far and way too fast for where we are at this stage of the reopening,\" said Amanda Agati, who oversees $170B in assets at PNC Financial. \"We've seen this massive sentiment shift, but at the end of the day, we really haven't seen the underlying fundamentals improve in a big way.\" She's putting her money in 2020's winners, like the stay-at-home trade, which includes Big Tech.\nKeep on it:\"Everyone's chasing their shadows and saying it's rates here, it's inflation there. But those just aren't real,\" added Mike Dowdall, a portfolio manager at BMO Global Asset Management. Monday was a \"kind of a reckoning with the reality that the Fed's not moving anytime soon. It's really hard to paint a negative picture of this market.\"\nWarning bells:SA contributor Mott Capital Management feels now is not the time tobuy the dip, nor should the recent rally last or be trusted. \"The rise in real yields has massively underperformed the rise in 10-year Treasury rates. That has resulted in breakeven inflation rates moving sharply higher, which has helped send the wrong message overall to the equity market. But as real yields begin to play catch-up to the nominal 10-year rate, it's likely to push those breakeven inflation rates lower, resulting in equity prices following lower, causing massive volatility.\"\nSigns of reopening\nAll 270 Apple Stores (AAPL) in the United States arenow openfor the first time in nearly a year, though some still have restrictions, such as being appointment-only. Stores in Texas were the last to reopen following additional delays caused by an Arctic blast in February. That milestone, along with news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B) isstill bullishon its 5.4% stake in the iPhone maker, sent shares of Appleup more than 5%on Monday for their biggest gain in more than four months.\nBackdrop:On March 13, 2020, Apple closed all of its retail stores outside of China due to the spreading pandemic. Since then, Apple has opened and closed stores around the world based on local lockdown restrictions and spiking COVID-19 cases. The only Apple Stores that are still closed worldwide are about a dozen in Brazil and France (outlets in Mexico reopen today).\nThe opening of Apple stores is more an indicator of improving retail health than a financial tailwind for the company. In fact, the retail store closures didn't even hurt Apple's sales, with iPhone revenues smashing analyst estimates last quarter, driven by iPhone 12 strength.\nAnalyst notes:Last month, JPMorgan analyst William Yang said weak demand for Apple's iPhone 12 mini could lead to a Q2 production halt for the device. Noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is now out with anew notepredicting the iPhone 13 family will match 12 in the number of devices and sizes, which means a 13 mini will be on offer. He also said that all 2021 models will include a Lightning and a reduced notch area, while the higher-end 13 Pro and 13 Pro Max will have an upgraded ultra-wide camera andLiDAR. (32 comments)\nVaccine passports\nOn March 17, the European Commission is set toproposean EU-wide digital certificate that provides the proof of the status of COVID-19 vaccination, Reuters reports. With the \"digital green pass,\" the 27-member bloc also expects to cooperate with international organizations to ensure that the system also works outside the region. The move is aimed at promoting safer travel within the region as well as abroad for work or tourism, according to Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.\nPotential problems?Vaccine distrust is a persistent issue in Europe, with only 59% of people in Western Europe trusting the safety of vaccines compared to 79% worldwide, according to a Wellcome Global Monitor survey in 2018. Compound that with privacy issues, as well as security and patient rights. EU countries would also be free to set their own criteria for entry, but broadly open borders make that a difficult task.\nBoth messenger RNA-based COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE,BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA) have received a regulatory nod in the EU along with the vector-based jab developed by AstraZeneca (AZN) in partnership with the University of Oxford. Meanwhile, a shot from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - the latest to receive FDA approval - is likely to undergo European regulatory review early this month.\nElsewhere in Europe:The U.K. has beendebatinga so-called COVID-19 vaccine passport, which would enable residents to get into bars and grocery stores in the future, according to Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. \"It's something that hasn’t been ruled out and it's under consideration, but of course you've got to make it workable,\" he toldLBC Radioin February. Other British officials have pushed back on the possibility. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the country is exploring vaccine certificates for international travel, but a so-called vaccine passport was not something that would be required to access local services. (78 comments)\nWhat else is happening...\nVolvo(OTCPK:VOLAF)is the next automaker to gofully electricby 2030.\nVote of confidence...United(NASDAQ:UAL)buys 25 new Boeing(NYSE:BA)737 MAX jets.\neBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)willdivestU.K. classifieds sites to complete Adevinta deal.\nWalmart(NYSE:WMT)poaches two Goldman(NYSE:GS)bankers tobuildits fintech venture.\nSEC says Exxon(NYSE:XOM), Citi(NYSE:C)must let investors vote onESG issues.\nMonday's Key Earnings\nNIO -4.2% A Hposting mixed Q4 results.\nNovavax )-4.3%despite plans for a vaccine as early as May.\nZoom Video +9.7%on robust guidance, WFH tailwinds.\nToday's Markets\nIn Asia,Japan-0.9%. Hong Kong-1.2%. China-1.2%. India+0.9%.\nIn Europe,at midday, London+0.5%. Paris+0.4%. Frankfurt+0.3%.\nFutures at 6:20,Dow-0.3%. S&P-0.5%. Nasdaq-0.5%. Crude-0.1%to $60.58. Gold+0.2%at $1726.10. Bitcoin+2%to $48755.\nTen-year Treasury Yieldflat at 1.44%\nToday's Economic Calendar\nAuto Sales\n8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales\n1:00 PM Fed's Brainard: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Outlook\n2:00 PM Fed's Daly Speech","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361341767,"gmtCreate":1614209689259,"gmtModify":1634550730758,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"羡慕羡慕","listText":"羡慕羡慕","text":"羡慕羡慕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361341767","repostId":"361351423","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":361351423,"gmtCreate":1614208970362,"gmtModify":1614227927347,"author":{"id":"3444504177139447","authorId":"3444504177139447","name":"投资小达人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cace575a7391eddd10a8a0c6537aadf4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>加油小米","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>加油小米","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$加油小米","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3eaa3087a4b7f4dda94c4083565fb9bd","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361351423","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384752845,"gmtCreate":1613693689087,"gmtModify":1634552639288,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>赚一点点🤏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>赚一点点🤏","text":"$SEA LTD(SE)$赚一点点🤏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b44b31fb2ee21769163367730c68772","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384752845","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385676869,"gmtCreate":1613550600351,"gmtModify":1634553204600,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>快快好起来","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>快快好起来","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$快快好起来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a27a128ad213062053dcd9fdaeb964","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385676869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":365976235,"gmtCreate":1614694529327,"gmtModify":1703479966119,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365976235","repostId":"1145359061","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145359061","pubTimestamp":1614694002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145359061?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-02 22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Breakfast: A Greener World","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145359061","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Petaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first city in the U.S. to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. The legislation will also outlaw new pumps at existing stations and streamline the process for adding more EV infrastructure like electric charging bays and hydrogen fuel cell facilities. The new prohibition is part of Petaluma's plan to completely phase out carbon emissions by 2030, though other environmental groups  are ","content":"<p><b>A greener world</b></p>\n<p>Petaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first city in the U.S. to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. The legislation will also outlaw new pumps at existing stations and streamline the process for adding more EV infrastructure like electric charging bays and hydrogen fuel cell facilities. The new prohibition is part of Petaluma's plan to completely phase out carbon emissions by 2030, though other environmental groups (like CONGAS) are pushing for a ban on the entire Sonoma County, which includes Petaluma and eight other cities.</p>\n<p>\"The goal here is to move away from fossil fuels and to make it as easy as possible to do that,\" said D'Lynda Fischer, the city councilor who introduced the measure. \"Right now, we have existing fossil fuel stations, and what we want them to do is add [electric vehicle] chargers and create another source of fueling people can use.\"</p>\n<p><i>Bigger picture:</i>There are an estimated 450,000 brownfield sites in the U.S., or areas where expansion, redevelopment, or reuse may be complicated by the presence of a hazardous substance. According to the EPA, approximately <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-half of them are thought to be impacted by petroleum, much of it from leaking underground storage tanks at old gas stations. The sites \"blight the surrounding neighborhoods, threaten human health and the environment and can contaminate groundwater.\"</p>\n<p><b>Outlook:</b>While the latest move is taking place at the grassroots level, there are other developments happening at the state level in California. Last year, the state banned the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035 and will require 75% of heavy trucks sold locally to be electric by that date. There are also plans to build an electric highway along the Pacific Coast. A host of policies are also being prepared at the federal level, like the Biden administration's $2T climate and infrastructure plan, which couldboost renewables and other sustainable stocks.(96 comments)</p>\n<p><b>Warming to plans on carbon pricing</b></p>\n<p>After hitting a pandemic low in April, global emissions rebounded strongly and were 2%, or 60M tons, higher in December 2020 than they were in the same month a year earlier, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency. This should serve a \"stark warning\" that not enough is being done to accelerate clean energy transitions worldwide, added Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. Major economies led the resurgence as a pick-up in economic activity pushed energy demand higher, while significant measures to boost clean energy were lacking.</p>\n<p>Quote:\"If governments don't move quickly with the right energy policies, this could put at risk the world’s historic opportunity to make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions,\" Birol continued. \"In March 2020, the IEA urged governments to put clean energy at the heart of their economic stimulus plans to ensure a sustainable recovery. But our numbers show we are returning to carbon-intensive business-as-usual.\"</p>\n<p>It's easier said than done. The latest report card from the United Nations showed that 75 signatories to the Paris climate accord - responsible for a third of global emissions - \"fell far short\" of what is needed to meet the deal's goals. If those targets were implemented, their combined emissions would fall just 0.5% by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels), which is far lower than the 45% fall in global emissions needed to limit warming to 1.5C. No new commitments have yet been put forward by China, India and the U.S., though the latter is expected to do so before the Biden administration hosts a climate summit on April 22.</p>\n<p><b>New economy?</b>The American Petroleum Institute, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the most powerful trade associations in Washington, is preparing toendorsesetting a price on carbon emissions in what would \"lead to the most economic paths to achieve the ambitions of the Paris Agreement.\" \"API supports economy-wide carbon pricing as the primary government climate policy instrument to reduce CO2 emissions while helping keep energy affordable, instead of mandates or prescriptive regulatory action,\" according to a draft statement. A decade ago, API was one of the strongest opponents to a Congressional plan on carbon pricing, though it is now the latest of several to support a \"market-based\" approach following an announcement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in January. (4 comments)</p>\n<p><b>Next moves?</b></p>\n<p>Volatility may be making a comeback on Wall Street as stock index futures fell back overnight,down about 0.5%, following one of the best days since June. On Monday, the S&amp;P 500climbed 2.4%, the DJIA tacked onanother 2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Compositejumped over 3%after shedding 4.9% last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, which is keeping investors on edge, also slipped to a session low of 1.41% before drifting toward the flatline.</p>\n<p>Cyclical sectors like energy and financials are also continuing to outperform the broader market due to optimism about vaccines and economic resurgence, though some are cautioning the rotation is overdone. \"The value side of the equation - the 'go outside' trade - has really moved way too far and way too fast for where we are at this stage of the reopening,\" said Amanda Agati, who oversees $170B in assets at PNC Financial. \"We've seen this massive sentiment shift, but at the end of the day, we really haven't seen the underlying fundamentals improve in a big way.\" She's putting her money in 2020's winners, like the stay-at-home trade, which includes Big Tech.</p>\n<p>Keep on it:\"Everyone's chasing their shadows and saying it's rates here, it's inflation there. But those just aren't real,\" added Mike Dowdall, a portfolio manager at BMO Global Asset Management. Monday was a \"kind of a reckoning with the reality that the Fed's not moving anytime soon. It's really hard to paint a negative picture of this market.\"</p>\n<p>Warning bells:SA contributor Mott Capital Management feels now is not the time tobuy the dip, nor should the recent rally last or be trusted. \"The rise in real yields has massively underperformed the rise in 10-year Treasury rates. That has resulted in breakeven inflation rates moving sharply higher, which has helped send the wrong message overall to the equity market. But as real yields begin to play catch-up to the nominal 10-year rate, it's likely to push those breakeven inflation rates lower, resulting in equity prices following lower, causing massive volatility.\"</p>\n<p><b>Signs of reopening</b></p>\n<p>All 270 Apple Stores (AAPL) in the United States arenow openfor the first time in nearly a year, though some still have restrictions, such as being appointment-only. Stores in Texas were the last to reopen following additional delays caused by an Arctic blast in February. That milestone, along with news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B) isstill bullishon its 5.4% stake in the iPhone maker, sent shares of Appleup more than 5%on Monday for their biggest gain in more than four months.</p>\n<p>Backdrop:On March 13, 2020, Apple closed all of its retail stores outside of China due to the spreading pandemic. Since then, Apple has opened and closed stores around the world based on local lockdown restrictions and spiking COVID-19 cases. The only Apple Stores that are still closed worldwide are about a dozen in Brazil and France (outlets in Mexico reopen today).</p>\n<p>The opening of Apple stores is more an indicator of improving retail health than a financial tailwind for the company. In fact, the retail store closures didn't even hurt Apple's sales, with iPhone revenues smashing analyst estimates last quarter, driven by iPhone 12 strength.</p>\n<p>Analyst notes:Last month, JPMorgan analyst William Yang said weak demand for Apple's iPhone 12 mini could lead to a Q2 production halt for the device. Noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is now out with anew notepredicting the iPhone 13 family will match 12 in the number of devices and sizes, which means a 13 mini will be on offer. He also said that all 2021 models will include a Lightning and a reduced notch area, while the higher-end 13 Pro and 13 Pro Max will have an upgraded ultra-wide camera andLiDAR. (32 comments)</p>\n<p><b>Vaccine passports</b></p>\n<p>On March 17, the European Commission is set toproposean EU-wide digital certificate that provides the proof of the status of COVID-19 vaccination, Reuters reports. With the \"digital green pass,\" the 27-member bloc also expects to cooperate with international organizations to ensure that the system also works outside the region. The move is aimed at promoting safer travel within the region as well as abroad for work or tourism, according to Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.</p>\n<p>Potential problems?Vaccine distrust is a persistent issue in Europe, with only 59% of people in Western Europe trusting the safety of vaccines compared to 79% worldwide, according to a Wellcome Global Monitor survey in 2018. Compound that with privacy issues, as well as security and patient rights. EU countries would also be free to set their own criteria for entry, but broadly open borders make that a difficult task.</p>\n<p>Both messenger RNA-based COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE,BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA) have received a regulatory nod in the EU along with the vector-based jab developed by AstraZeneca (AZN) in partnership with the University of Oxford. Meanwhile, a shot from Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ) - the latest to receive FDA approval - is likely to undergo European regulatory review early this month.</p>\n<p>Elsewhere in Europe:The U.K. has beendebatinga so-called COVID-19 vaccine passport, which would enable residents to get into bars and grocery stores in the future, according to Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. \"It's something that hasn’t been ruled out and it's under consideration, but of course you've got to make it workable,\" he toldLBC Radioin February. Other British officials have pushed back on the possibility. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the country is exploring vaccine certificates for international travel, but a so-called vaccine passport was not something that would be required to access local services. (78 comments)</p>\n<p>What else is happening...</p>\n<p>Volvo(OTCPK:VOLAF)is the next automaker to gofully electricby 2030.</p>\n<p>Vote of confidence...United(NASDAQ:UAL)buys 25 new Boeing(NYSE:BA)737 MAX jets.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a>(NASDAQ:EBAY)willdivestU.K. classifieds sites to complete Adevinta deal.</p>\n<p>Walmart(NYSE:WMT)poaches two Goldman(NYSE:GS)bankers tobuildits fintech venture.</p>\n<p>SEC says Exxon(NYSE:XOM), Citi(NYSE:C)must let investors vote onESG issues.</p>\n<p>Monday's Key Earnings</p>\n<p>NIO&nbsp;-4.2%&nbsp;A&nbsp;Hposting mixed Q4 results.</p>\n<p>Novavax )-4.3%despite plans for a vaccine as early as May.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video&nbsp;+9.7%on robust guidance, WFH tailwinds.</p>\n<p><b>Today's Markets</b></p>\n<p><b>In Asia,</b>Japan-0.9%. Hong Kong-1.2%. China-1.2%. India+0.9%.</p>\n<p><b>In Europe,</b>at midday, London+0.5%. Paris+0.4%. Frankfurt+0.3%.</p>\n<p><b>Futures at 6:20,</b>Dow-0.3%. S&amp;P-0.5%. Nasdaq-0.5%. Crude-0.1%to $60.58. Gold+0.2%at $1726.10. Bitcoin+2%to $48755.</p>\n<p><b>Ten-year Treasury Yield</b>flat at 1.44%</p>\n<p><b>Today's Economic Calendar</b></p>\n<p><b>Auto Sales</b></p>\n<p>8:55&nbsp;Redbook Chain Store Sales</p>\n<p>1:00 PM&nbsp;Fed's Brainard: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Outlook</p>\n<p>2:00 PM&nbsp;Fed's Daly Speech</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Breakfast: A Greener World</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Breakfast: A Greener World\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-02 22:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410639-wall-street-breakfast-greener-world><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A greener world\nPetaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first city in the U.S. to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410639-wall-street-breakfast-greener-world\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410639-wall-street-breakfast-greener-world","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1145359061","content_text":"A greener world\nPetaluma, California - a city of 61,000 residents and 15 square miles in size - has become the first city in the U.S. to permanently halt the construction of new gas stations. The legislation will also outlaw new pumps at existing stations and streamline the process for adding more EV infrastructure like electric charging bays and hydrogen fuel cell facilities. The new prohibition is part of Petaluma's plan to completely phase out carbon emissions by 2030, though other environmental groups (like CONGAS) are pushing for a ban on the entire Sonoma County, which includes Petaluma and eight other cities.\n\"The goal here is to move away from fossil fuels and to make it as easy as possible to do that,\" said D'Lynda Fischer, the city councilor who introduced the measure. \"Right now, we have existing fossil fuel stations, and what we want them to do is add [electric vehicle] chargers and create another source of fueling people can use.\"\nBigger picture:There are an estimated 450,000 brownfield sites in the U.S., or areas where expansion, redevelopment, or reuse may be complicated by the presence of a hazardous substance. According to the EPA, approximately one-half of them are thought to be impacted by petroleum, much of it from leaking underground storage tanks at old gas stations. The sites \"blight the surrounding neighborhoods, threaten human health and the environment and can contaminate groundwater.\"\nOutlook:While the latest move is taking place at the grassroots level, there are other developments happening at the state level in California. Last year, the state banned the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035 and will require 75% of heavy trucks sold locally to be electric by that date. There are also plans to build an electric highway along the Pacific Coast. A host of policies are also being prepared at the federal level, like the Biden administration's $2T climate and infrastructure plan, which couldboost renewables and other sustainable stocks.(96 comments)\nWarming to plans on carbon pricing\nAfter hitting a pandemic low in April, global emissions rebounded strongly and were 2%, or 60M tons, higher in December 2020 than they were in the same month a year earlier, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency. This should serve a \"stark warning\" that not enough is being done to accelerate clean energy transitions worldwide, added Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. Major economies led the resurgence as a pick-up in economic activity pushed energy demand higher, while significant measures to boost clean energy were lacking.\nQuote:\"If governments don't move quickly with the right energy policies, this could put at risk the world’s historic opportunity to make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions,\" Birol continued. \"In March 2020, the IEA urged governments to put clean energy at the heart of their economic stimulus plans to ensure a sustainable recovery. But our numbers show we are returning to carbon-intensive business-as-usual.\"\nIt's easier said than done. The latest report card from the United Nations showed that 75 signatories to the Paris climate accord - responsible for a third of global emissions - \"fell far short\" of what is needed to meet the deal's goals. If those targets were implemented, their combined emissions would fall just 0.5% by 2030 (compared to 2010 levels), which is far lower than the 45% fall in global emissions needed to limit warming to 1.5C. No new commitments have yet been put forward by China, India and the U.S., though the latter is expected to do so before the Biden administration hosts a climate summit on April 22.\nNew economy?The American Petroleum Institute, one of the most powerful trade associations in Washington, is preparing toendorsesetting a price on carbon emissions in what would \"lead to the most economic paths to achieve the ambitions of the Paris Agreement.\" \"API supports economy-wide carbon pricing as the primary government climate policy instrument to reduce CO2 emissions while helping keep energy affordable, instead of mandates or prescriptive regulatory action,\" according to a draft statement. A decade ago, API was one of the strongest opponents to a Congressional plan on carbon pricing, though it is now the latest of several to support a \"market-based\" approach following an announcement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in January. (4 comments)\nNext moves?\nVolatility may be making a comeback on Wall Street as stock index futures fell back overnight,down about 0.5%, following one of the best days since June. On Monday, the S&P 500climbed 2.4%, the DJIA tacked onanother 2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Compositejumped over 3%after shedding 4.9% last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, which is keeping investors on edge, also slipped to a session low of 1.41% before drifting toward the flatline.\nCyclical sectors like energy and financials are also continuing to outperform the broader market due to optimism about vaccines and economic resurgence, though some are cautioning the rotation is overdone. \"The value side of the equation - the 'go outside' trade - has really moved way too far and way too fast for where we are at this stage of the reopening,\" said Amanda Agati, who oversees $170B in assets at PNC Financial. \"We've seen this massive sentiment shift, but at the end of the day, we really haven't seen the underlying fundamentals improve in a big way.\" She's putting her money in 2020's winners, like the stay-at-home trade, which includes Big Tech.\nKeep on it:\"Everyone's chasing their shadows and saying it's rates here, it's inflation there. But those just aren't real,\" added Mike Dowdall, a portfolio manager at BMO Global Asset Management. Monday was a \"kind of a reckoning with the reality that the Fed's not moving anytime soon. It's really hard to paint a negative picture of this market.\"\nWarning bells:SA contributor Mott Capital Management feels now is not the time tobuy the dip, nor should the recent rally last or be trusted. \"The rise in real yields has massively underperformed the rise in 10-year Treasury rates. That has resulted in breakeven inflation rates moving sharply higher, which has helped send the wrong message overall to the equity market. But as real yields begin to play catch-up to the nominal 10-year rate, it's likely to push those breakeven inflation rates lower, resulting in equity prices following lower, causing massive volatility.\"\nSigns of reopening\nAll 270 Apple Stores (AAPL) in the United States arenow openfor the first time in nearly a year, though some still have restrictions, such as being appointment-only. Stores in Texas were the last to reopen following additional delays caused by an Arctic blast in February. That milestone, along with news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B) isstill bullishon its 5.4% stake in the iPhone maker, sent shares of Appleup more than 5%on Monday for their biggest gain in more than four months.\nBackdrop:On March 13, 2020, Apple closed all of its retail stores outside of China due to the spreading pandemic. Since then, Apple has opened and closed stores around the world based on local lockdown restrictions and spiking COVID-19 cases. The only Apple Stores that are still closed worldwide are about a dozen in Brazil and France (outlets in Mexico reopen today).\nThe opening of Apple stores is more an indicator of improving retail health than a financial tailwind for the company. In fact, the retail store closures didn't even hurt Apple's sales, with iPhone revenues smashing analyst estimates last quarter, driven by iPhone 12 strength.\nAnalyst notes:Last month, JPMorgan analyst William Yang said weak demand for Apple's iPhone 12 mini could lead to a Q2 production halt for the device. Noted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is now out with anew notepredicting the iPhone 13 family will match 12 in the number of devices and sizes, which means a 13 mini will be on offer. He also said that all 2021 models will include a Lightning and a reduced notch area, while the higher-end 13 Pro and 13 Pro Max will have an upgraded ultra-wide camera andLiDAR. (32 comments)\nVaccine passports\nOn March 17, the European Commission is set toproposean EU-wide digital certificate that provides the proof of the status of COVID-19 vaccination, Reuters reports. With the \"digital green pass,\" the 27-member bloc also expects to cooperate with international organizations to ensure that the system also works outside the region. The move is aimed at promoting safer travel within the region as well as abroad for work or tourism, according to Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.\nPotential problems?Vaccine distrust is a persistent issue in Europe, with only 59% of people in Western Europe trusting the safety of vaccines compared to 79% worldwide, according to a Wellcome Global Monitor survey in 2018. Compound that with privacy issues, as well as security and patient rights. EU countries would also be free to set their own criteria for entry, but broadly open borders make that a difficult task.\nBoth messenger RNA-based COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE,BNTX) and Moderna (MRNA) have received a regulatory nod in the EU along with the vector-based jab developed by AstraZeneca (AZN) in partnership with the University of Oxford. Meanwhile, a shot from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - the latest to receive FDA approval - is likely to undergo European regulatory review early this month.\nElsewhere in Europe:The U.K. has beendebatinga so-called COVID-19 vaccine passport, which would enable residents to get into bars and grocery stores in the future, according to Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. \"It's something that hasn’t been ruled out and it's under consideration, but of course you've got to make it workable,\" he toldLBC Radioin February. Other British officials have pushed back on the possibility. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the country is exploring vaccine certificates for international travel, but a so-called vaccine passport was not something that would be required to access local services. (78 comments)\nWhat else is happening...\nVolvo(OTCPK:VOLAF)is the next automaker to gofully electricby 2030.\nVote of confidence...United(NASDAQ:UAL)buys 25 new Boeing(NYSE:BA)737 MAX jets.\neBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)willdivestU.K. classifieds sites to complete Adevinta deal.\nWalmart(NYSE:WMT)poaches two Goldman(NYSE:GS)bankers tobuildits fintech venture.\nSEC says Exxon(NYSE:XOM), Citi(NYSE:C)must let investors vote onESG issues.\nMonday's Key Earnings\nNIO -4.2% A Hposting mixed Q4 results.\nNovavax )-4.3%despite plans for a vaccine as early as May.\nZoom Video +9.7%on robust guidance, WFH tailwinds.\nToday's Markets\nIn Asia,Japan-0.9%. Hong Kong-1.2%. China-1.2%. India+0.9%.\nIn Europe,at midday, London+0.5%. Paris+0.4%. Frankfurt+0.3%.\nFutures at 6:20,Dow-0.3%. S&P-0.5%. Nasdaq-0.5%. Crude-0.1%to $60.58. Gold+0.2%at $1726.10. Bitcoin+2%to $48755.\nTen-year Treasury Yieldflat at 1.44%\nToday's Economic Calendar\nAuto Sales\n8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales\n1:00 PM Fed's Brainard: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Outlook\n2:00 PM Fed's Daly Speech","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385676869,"gmtCreate":1613550600351,"gmtModify":1634553204600,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>快快好起来","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>快快好起来","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$快快好起来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a27a128ad213062053dcd9fdaeb964","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385676869","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326441064,"gmtCreate":1615702340258,"gmtModify":1703492244977,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$American Airlines(AAL)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$American Airlines(AAL)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$American Airlines(AAL)$[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/620ec3e29c1c012796c2cd23a15eda4a","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326441064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384752845,"gmtCreate":1613693689087,"gmtModify":1634552639288,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>赚一点点🤏","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>赚一点点🤏","text":"$SEA LTD(SE)$赚一点点🤏","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b44b31fb2ee21769163367730c68772","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384752845","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364005891,"gmtCreate":1614783562413,"gmtModify":1703481110431,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$Citigroup(C)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$Citigroup(C)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$Citigroup(C)$[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b3b45856b9f6777e73caec61091e092","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364005891","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365972979,"gmtCreate":1614694548191,"gmtModify":1703479966633,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365972979","repostId":"1103406593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103406593","pubTimestamp":1614693752,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103406593?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-02 22:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sugar Rush - Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103406593","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash.\n","content":"<p>Summary</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash.</li>\n <li>The vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial inputs which are not indefinitely sustainable.</li>\n <li>There is a massive disconnect between the \"stock market\" and the \"real economy.\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash. As every parent knows, giving a child too much \"sugar\" leads to a \"rush\" of energy. Then comes the crash, where you find them in some odd place taking a nap.</p>\n<p>The Coming Economic \"Rush\"</p>\n<p>Recently, JPMorgan joined the rest of the Wall Street banks in predicting a surge in economic activity for 2021 of 6.4%. Of course, the entire reasoning behind the rise in activity was due to \"stimulus.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"In a note to clients, JPM's chief economist Michael Feroli made the following forecast revisions:\n</blockquote>\n<p>The statement quickly lays out the premise of the \"rush and crash\" syndrome.</p>\n<p>The chart below shows annual real GDP growth rates from 2008 to the present. The surge in GDP in 2021 is a continuation of the \"sugar rush\" of monetary interventions. However, notice economic growth \"crashes\" back to annual norms in 2022.</p>\n<p>The dashed black line is the average annual growth of GDP from 2007 at just 1.7%. (Without the addition of JPMorgan's estimates, the actual growth rate through 2020 was only 1.3%).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9629eb53dc18f1655fe49df3259efb8e\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>For reference, a rate of growth below 2% isn't strong enough to absorb population growth.</p>\n<blockquote>\n (Note: Prior to 2000, an economic growth rate of 2% was considered \"pre-recessionary.\" In order to justify excess spending and Government interventions, 2% growth is now considered a \"success\" of policy.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>It's All Been Artificial</b></p>\n<p>Here is the more significant issue. The vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial inputs which are not indefinitely sustainable. From increasing federal expenditures:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2516f49b7c1565d8d1451ce1c82f702d\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>And a litany of \"bailouts,\" which are a function of increased debts and deficits and massive monetary interventions.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724349a20ecbb1ec296a5399d6d3472e\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>While the economy may have \"appeared\" to grow during this period, economic growth would have been \"negative\" without debt increases. The chart below shows what economic growth would be without the increases in Federal debt.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/254442d01aca7a78e94a8ad57f5a3c8c\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Such is why, after more than a decade of monetary and fiscal interventions totaling more than$37 trillionand counting, the economy remains on \"life support.\"</p>\n<p>(It required roughly $12 in support to generate $1 of economic growth.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245086ab1ba07a40241fb1b03a647762\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"476\"></p>\n<p>While the claims of a robust economy rely heavily upon a surge in consumer spending, it is a mirage of the increase in \"social benefits.\"</p>\n<p><b>Real Incomes Not Improving</b></p>\n<p>A significant problem with a bulk of the analysis put out by mainstream economists, and the media is that it often fails to examine the underlying causes. An excellent example has been that consumer incomes are surging, which will support the economic \"sugar rush.\" A look at the chart below would undoubtedly suggest that to be true.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/209cc9c414434eee3f179dfde40d0155\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"490\"></p>\n<p>However, the reality is much less optimistic when you strip out \"government transfer payments.\" While the economy has rebounded, real disposable incomes remain below previous highs. Notably, of the next $1.9 trillion in stimulus, only roughly $900 billion flows to households. Such won't boost incomes markedly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce655a76accf67d1d60c0b7f02242c1c\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"490\"></p>\n<p>The chart below shows the problem more clearly. As noted above, the \"real\" economic prosperity of household incomes has not improved markedly without government supports. Such is why, at roughly 2% economic growth, nearly 1-in-3 households are dependent on some form of government handout.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb264f1eabee006ba8d182a2162ad101\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"574\"></p>\n<p><b>A Surge In The \"Welfare Trap\"</b></p>\n<p>There is a massive disconnect between the \"stock market\" and the \"real economy.\" As we have discussed previously, the top10% of income earners own nearly 90%of the stock market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cd9a5efcc6666d6d4fd8861a0ceea4a\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"517\"></p>\n<p>For the bottom 80%, which drives the bulk of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), they continue to struggle to make ends meet. Such is why the dependency on social welfare now comprises one-third of total incomes. Other statistics are just as daunting.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>38 million Americans on food stamps</p></li>\n <li><p>According to the Census Bureau, an estimated 50% of the 330 million Americans get at least one federal benefit.</p></li>\n <li><p>An estimated 63 million get Social Security; 59.9 million get Medicare; 75 million get Medicaid; 5 million get housing subsidies, and 4 million get Veterans' benefits.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Those numbers continue to rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e9a46308e827715af3777b1586ce189\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"491\"></p>\n<p>Without government largesse, many individuals would be living on the street. The chart above shows all the government \"welfare\" programs and current levels to date.</p>\n<p>The problem with \"stimulus programs\" is that you can see the immediate subsequent contraction once the benefit depletes. Since one-third of incomes dependent on government transfers, it is not surprising that the economy struggles as recycled tax dollars used for consumption purposes have virtually no impact on the overall economy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11738fa36d2bea285ea86c1eb6b8b7a\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"490\"></p>\n<p>In fact, in the ongoing saga of the American economy's demise, U.S. households are now getting more in cash handouts from the government than they are paying in taxes for the first time since the Great Depression.</p>\n<p>Such occurs when the current administration remains enthralled with finding some universe where socialistic programs lead to sustainable economic growth.</p>\n<p>It doesn't.</p>\n<p>The Coming \"Crash\"</p>\n<p>As the stimulus hits consumers, they spend it rather quickly, which leads to a \"sugar rush\" of economic activity. Such as:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p>Consumers use the funds to make either necessary or discretionary purchases creating demand.</p></li>\n <li><p>In anticipation of demand, companies boost \"inventories.\"</p></li>\n <li><p>The boost in \"inventory stocking\" boosts manufacturing metrics.</p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>We are seeing this currently as manufacturing and inventory metrics surge.</p>\n<p>As shown, the stimulus will lead to a short-term boost in PCE, which will correspond with increased economic growth. (PCE comprises nearly 70% of the calculation.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6516b0d8f4641bb54be6c447fd64a5af\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"479\"></p>\n<p>However, there is a \"dark side\" to stimulus-fueled activity.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p>Since companies know the stimulus is \"temporary,\" they don't make long-term hiring and capital expenditure plans.</p></li>\n <li><p>The increase in activity leads to an inflationary rise that companies have difficulty passing on to consumers, ultimately reducing profit margins.</p></li>\n <li><p>Again, since companies know the stimulus is temporary, they opt for \"efficiencies,\" such as outsourcing and automation, to lower labor and production costs.</p></li>\n <li><p>After the stimulus gets depleted, consumers struggle with higher costs which further deteriorates their standard of living.</p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>Unless the Government is committed to a continuous stimulus, once the \"sugar rush\" fades, the economy will \"crash\" back to its organic state.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0ad408722f4e7b0e53228cbd75e567\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"477\"></p>\n<p>The bottom line is that America can't grow its way back to prosperity on the back of social assistance. The average American is fighting to make ends meet as their living cost rises while wage growth remains stagnant.</p>\n<p><b>Deflation Set To Return</b></p>\n<p>That brings us to the hard truth.</p>\n<p>If we assume even the most optimistic economic outcome of the current stimulus bill, the reality is that economic growth will remain mired in its long-term downtrend.</p>\n<p>As the budget deficit grows over the next few years, interest payments alone will absorb a larger chunk of tax revenue. Such comes at a time when that same dollar of tax revenue only covers the entitlement spending of the 75 million baby boomers migrating into the social safety net.</p>\n<p>By the way, the only other time government income support exceeded taxes paid was during the \"Great Depression\" from 1931 to 1936.</p>\n<p>The debt problem remains a massive risk to monetary and fiscal policy. If rates rise, the negative impact on an indebted economy quickly depresses activity. More importantly, the decline in monetary velocity clearly shows that deflation is a persistent threat.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/383872d3c785e619d2a2d346e89a0175\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"569\"></p>\n<p><b>No Real Options</b></p>\n<p>There are no real options unless the system is allowed to reset painfully.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, given we now have a decade of experience of watching monetary experiments only succeed in creating a massive \"wealth gap,\" maybe we should consider the alternative.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, the Federal Reserve, and the Administration, will have to face hard choices to extricate the economy from the current\"liquidity trap.\"However, history shows that political leadership never makes hard choices until those choices get forced upon them.</p>\n<p>Most telling is the current economists' inability, who maintain our monetary and fiscal policies, to realize the problem of trying to \"cure a debt problem with more debt.\"</p>\n<p>The Keynesian view that \"more money in people's pockets\" will drive up consumer spending, with a boost to GDP being the result, has been wrong. It hasn't happened in 40 years.</p>\n<p>As Dr. Woody Brock aptly argues:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"It is truly 'American Gridlock' as the real crisis lies between the choices of 'austerity' and continued government 'largesse.' One choice leads to long-term economic prosperity for all; the other doesn't.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>Take your pick.</p>\n<p>While we likely see a spark of inflation, it probably won't last long. Eventually, the grip of the debt-driven deflationary cycle will regain its burdensome hold.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sugar Rush - Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSugar Rush - Why The Economy Will Run Hot, Then Crash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-02 22:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410290-sugar-rush-why-the-economy-will-run-hot-then-crash><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash.\nThe vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410290-sugar-rush-why-the-economy-will-run-hot-then-crash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4410290-sugar-rush-why-the-economy-will-run-hot-then-crash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1103406593","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash.\nThe vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial inputs which are not indefinitely sustainable.\nThere is a massive disconnect between the \"stock market\" and the \"real economy.\"\n\nThe expected \"sugar rush\" from more stimulus is why the economy will \"run hot\" then crash. As every parent knows, giving a child too much \"sugar\" leads to a \"rush\" of energy. Then comes the crash, where you find them in some odd place taking a nap.\nThe Coming Economic \"Rush\"\nRecently, JPMorgan joined the rest of the Wall Street banks in predicting a surge in economic activity for 2021 of 6.4%. Of course, the entire reasoning behind the rise in activity was due to \"stimulus.\"\n\n \"In a note to clients, JPM's chief economist Michael Feroli made the following forecast revisions:\n\nThe statement quickly lays out the premise of the \"rush and crash\" syndrome.\nThe chart below shows annual real GDP growth rates from 2008 to the present. The surge in GDP in 2021 is a continuation of the \"sugar rush\" of monetary interventions. However, notice economic growth \"crashes\" back to annual norms in 2022.\nThe dashed black line is the average annual growth of GDP from 2007 at just 1.7%. (Without the addition of JPMorgan's estimates, the actual growth rate through 2020 was only 1.3%).\n\nFor reference, a rate of growth below 2% isn't strong enough to absorb population growth.\n\n (Note: Prior to 2000, an economic growth rate of 2% was considered \"pre-recessionary.\" In order to justify excess spending and Government interventions, 2% growth is now considered a \"success\" of policy.\"\n\nIt's All Been Artificial\nHere is the more significant issue. The vast majority of the growth in the U.S. over the last decade was due to a variety of artificial inputs which are not indefinitely sustainable. From increasing federal expenditures:\n\nAnd a litany of \"bailouts,\" which are a function of increased debts and deficits and massive monetary interventions.\n\nWhile the economy may have \"appeared\" to grow during this period, economic growth would have been \"negative\" without debt increases. The chart below shows what economic growth would be without the increases in Federal debt.\n\nSuch is why, after more than a decade of monetary and fiscal interventions totaling more than$37 trillionand counting, the economy remains on \"life support.\"\n(It required roughly $12 in support to generate $1 of economic growth.)\n\nWhile the claims of a robust economy rely heavily upon a surge in consumer spending, it is a mirage of the increase in \"social benefits.\"\nReal Incomes Not Improving\nA significant problem with a bulk of the analysis put out by mainstream economists, and the media is that it often fails to examine the underlying causes. An excellent example has been that consumer incomes are surging, which will support the economic \"sugar rush.\" A look at the chart below would undoubtedly suggest that to be true.\n\nHowever, the reality is much less optimistic when you strip out \"government transfer payments.\" While the economy has rebounded, real disposable incomes remain below previous highs. Notably, of the next $1.9 trillion in stimulus, only roughly $900 billion flows to households. Such won't boost incomes markedly.\n\nThe chart below shows the problem more clearly. As noted above, the \"real\" economic prosperity of household incomes has not improved markedly without government supports. Such is why, at roughly 2% economic growth, nearly 1-in-3 households are dependent on some form of government handout.\n\nA Surge In The \"Welfare Trap\"\nThere is a massive disconnect between the \"stock market\" and the \"real economy.\" As we have discussed previously, the top10% of income earners own nearly 90%of the stock market.\n\nFor the bottom 80%, which drives the bulk of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), they continue to struggle to make ends meet. Such is why the dependency on social welfare now comprises one-third of total incomes. Other statistics are just as daunting.\n\n38 million Americans on food stamps\nAccording to the Census Bureau, an estimated 50% of the 330 million Americans get at least one federal benefit.\nAn estimated 63 million get Social Security; 59.9 million get Medicare; 75 million get Medicaid; 5 million get housing subsidies, and 4 million get Veterans' benefits.\n\nThose numbers continue to rise.\n\nWithout government largesse, many individuals would be living on the street. The chart above shows all the government \"welfare\" programs and current levels to date.\nThe problem with \"stimulus programs\" is that you can see the immediate subsequent contraction once the benefit depletes. Since one-third of incomes dependent on government transfers, it is not surprising that the economy struggles as recycled tax dollars used for consumption purposes have virtually no impact on the overall economy.\n\nIn fact, in the ongoing saga of the American economy's demise, U.S. households are now getting more in cash handouts from the government than they are paying in taxes for the first time since the Great Depression.\nSuch occurs when the current administration remains enthralled with finding some universe where socialistic programs lead to sustainable economic growth.\nIt doesn't.\nThe Coming \"Crash\"\nAs the stimulus hits consumers, they spend it rather quickly, which leads to a \"sugar rush\" of economic activity. Such as:\n\nConsumers use the funds to make either necessary or discretionary purchases creating demand.\nIn anticipation of demand, companies boost \"inventories.\"\nThe boost in \"inventory stocking\" boosts manufacturing metrics.\n\nWe are seeing this currently as manufacturing and inventory metrics surge.\nAs shown, the stimulus will lead to a short-term boost in PCE, which will correspond with increased economic growth. (PCE comprises nearly 70% of the calculation.)\n\nHowever, there is a \"dark side\" to stimulus-fueled activity.\n\nSince companies know the stimulus is \"temporary,\" they don't make long-term hiring and capital expenditure plans.\nThe increase in activity leads to an inflationary rise that companies have difficulty passing on to consumers, ultimately reducing profit margins.\nAgain, since companies know the stimulus is temporary, they opt for \"efficiencies,\" such as outsourcing and automation, to lower labor and production costs.\nAfter the stimulus gets depleted, consumers struggle with higher costs which further deteriorates their standard of living.\n\nUnless the Government is committed to a continuous stimulus, once the \"sugar rush\" fades, the economy will \"crash\" back to its organic state.\n\nThe bottom line is that America can't grow its way back to prosperity on the back of social assistance. The average American is fighting to make ends meet as their living cost rises while wage growth remains stagnant.\nDeflation Set To Return\nThat brings us to the hard truth.\nIf we assume even the most optimistic economic outcome of the current stimulus bill, the reality is that economic growth will remain mired in its long-term downtrend.\nAs the budget deficit grows over the next few years, interest payments alone will absorb a larger chunk of tax revenue. Such comes at a time when that same dollar of tax revenue only covers the entitlement spending of the 75 million baby boomers migrating into the social safety net.\nBy the way, the only other time government income support exceeded taxes paid was during the \"Great Depression\" from 1931 to 1936.\nThe debt problem remains a massive risk to monetary and fiscal policy. If rates rise, the negative impact on an indebted economy quickly depresses activity. More importantly, the decline in monetary velocity clearly shows that deflation is a persistent threat.\n\nNo Real Options\nThere are no real options unless the system is allowed to reset painfully.\nUnfortunately, given we now have a decade of experience of watching monetary experiments only succeed in creating a massive \"wealth gap,\" maybe we should consider the alternative.\nUltimately, the Federal Reserve, and the Administration, will have to face hard choices to extricate the economy from the current\"liquidity trap.\"However, history shows that political leadership never makes hard choices until those choices get forced upon them.\nMost telling is the current economists' inability, who maintain our monetary and fiscal policies, to realize the problem of trying to \"cure a debt problem with more debt.\"\nThe Keynesian view that \"more money in people's pockets\" will drive up consumer spending, with a boost to GDP being the result, has been wrong. It hasn't happened in 40 years.\nAs Dr. Woody Brock aptly argues:\n\n \"It is truly 'American Gridlock' as the real crisis lies between the choices of 'austerity' and continued government 'largesse.' One choice leads to long-term economic prosperity for all; the other doesn't.\"\n\nTake your pick.\nWhile we likely see a spark of inflation, it probably won't last long. Eventually, the grip of the debt-driven deflationary cycle will regain its burdensome hold.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324296133,"gmtCreate":1615993059722,"gmtModify":1703496134212,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">$U.S. Steel(X)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/X\">$U.S. Steel(X)$</a>[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$U.S. Steel(X)$[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f2a99a04e6b930e83da8a461de7931","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324296133","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365975587,"gmtCreate":1614694665249,"gmtModify":1703479969370,"author":{"id":"3563330650500467","authorId":"3563330650500467","name":"tuxtong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$American Airlines(AAL)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$American Airlines(AAL)$</a>[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$American Airlines(AAL)$[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f58d01ef1f79b2f23968464c2873a383","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365975587","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}