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yyykkk

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2022-01-14

机构用心险恶，12美元？卖废铜烂铁都不止这个价，希望市场狠狠打脸这些缺德的分析师

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-15

木头姐已经成了笑话，还通缩？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-14

木头姐的操作是最佳反向指标

传ARK基金减持辉瑞(PFE)及亚马逊(AMZN)等股

2021-12-10

贾骗子也要穷途末路了

8年未交付一辆车，法拉第未来是否还有未来？

2021-11-17

直接加个零卖给下家，这些股票真是吓死我了

千亿市值不是梦，Lucid上升潜力巨大

2021-09-27

坐看看空美光的被打脸

尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期

2021-09-13

有没有人像我这样，对这些内容完全看不懂，也不知道这些技术和发展到底是为了什么，对社会和进步是什么用的？

一文读懂NFT：全面解析NFT发展简史、价值及未来

2021-09-07

厌恶wood，天天鼓吹不靠谱泡沐

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-17

好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议，完全不符合常识

Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next

2021-07-19

匹夫无罪怀璧有罪，台积电就是美国砧板上的肉

美国工程师去了台积电总部！刘德音放出猛料，3nm还能保住吗？

2021-07-16

$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$ 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊

2021-07-14

$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想

2021-07-13

不知所云

As a Tech Investment, Palantir Puts the Soft in Software

2021-07-07

$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$ 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？

2021-07-06

典型双标文章

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-02

存储的需求怎么了能降低呢，远不止PC 场景啊

Micron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs

2021-06-04

此时不割韭菜更待何时？不同意增发天理不容

AMC to ask shareholders for right to issue 25 million more shares

2021-05-31

实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失

王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞

2021-05-30

比特币注定不会成为货币，因为作为法定货币是否有价值取决于一个国家主权和经济能力的背书，比特币只能作为投机资产在哪炒作，但不可能作为货币，完全不符合逻辑

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-28

整个行业已经崩溃了

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>(PFE)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>(FB)，增持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">UiPath</a>(PATH)、Robinhood(HOOD)、Nu Holdings(NU)。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51edcbed4cc4bf7f4b7ca9a4a8cb859d","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4007":"制药","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4544":"ARK ETF合集","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","ARKK":"ARK Innovation 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Holdings(NU)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605100876,"gmtCreate":1639124034011,"gmtModify":1639124034011,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"贾骗子也要穷途末路了","listText":"贾骗子也要穷途末路了","text":"贾骗子也要穷途末路了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605100876","repostId":"2190400476","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190400476","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639121440,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190400476?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"8年未交付一辆车，法拉第未来是否还有未来？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190400476","media":"老虎谈股权激励","summary":"FF累计亏损约28亿美元，但FF91量产计划不变。","content":"<p>作者：董雯</p>\n<p>2017年，贾跃亭一手创建的法拉第未来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>(以下简称FF) 首款量产车型FF91发布。2020年末，FF91称已获得超过 1.4 万辆订单。</p>\n<p>今年7月22日，FF在纳斯达克挂牌上市，贾跃亭迎来了高光时刻，并表示要在一年之内将首批FF91电动车保质保量地交付到消费者手中。</p>\n<p>那时大家对贾跃亭又多了一份期待，不过最近，贾总貌似又遇到了些麻烦事。</p>\n<p><b>累计亏损约28亿美元</b></p>\n<p>美国东部时间12月7日，FF召开电话会议，透露了最新的企业进展。FF预计Q3经营亏损将增至约1.43亿美元，净亏损则增至约2.8亿美元。对比下，2020年Q3的营业亏损和净亏损分别为约1800万美元和3300万美元。</p>\n<p>产品方面，FF全球 CEO 毕福康（Carsten Breitfeld）表示“（FF）第一辆车已经开始生产。”据其介绍称，目前，FF工厂已经完成了设备安装，也已经获得了试生产批准，汉福德工厂具备预生产资格。距离批量生产更近了一步。</p>\n<p>对于未来，毕福康称相信有足够的资金来完成 FF91，新车仍然计划在2022年7月推出。</p>\n<p>据老虎ESOP整理，自FF成立以来，预计累计亏损约28亿美元，公司预计未来或将继续亏损。另外，在不久前FF还传出了强制退市的传闻。</p>\n<p>11月26日，FF收到了一份来自美国证券交易委员会发出的退市警示函。随后FF发布澄清说明，由于公司未能及时提交季度收益报告，FF被要求在60天内提交截至2021年9月30日的季报，否则可能被要求退市。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/999526f711b101b335ce8ef827ea22b8\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"711\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>彼时，FF解释称之所以未按时提交财报，主要是受到了美国投资机构不准确披露指控的影响。</p>\n<p>2021年10月，美国投资机构J Capital Research发布了一份28页的关于FF的做空报告。</p>\n<p>在报告的开头，J Capital Research 直指FF一直被大家诟病的几个问题，“经过8年的经营，FF公司未能交付一辆汽车并再次表示‘明年交付’，此外公司违背了在美国及中国五个地方建厂的承诺，对于第六个工厂建设也一再推迟。”</p>\n<p>而对于做空机构的报告，贾跃亭认为其言论是“冷饭热炒，无稽之谈”。FF也表示，公司自上市之后在产品力提升、产品测试、供应链、生产制造、销售、业务拓展等领域已取得了重大进展，且有信心在2022年7月按时交付FF 91。</p>\n<p><b>亏损成造车常态</b></p>\n<p>自FF上市之日起，其股票价格表现并不优秀。截至12月8日，FF的股价已经从上市首日的收盘价每股13.98美元，总市值约45.11亿美元，跌至股价仅剩5.66美元，市值18.36亿美元。不到五个月的时间市值缩水近60%。</p>\n<p>据统计，FF至今尚未产生任何收入，2019年亏损1.42亿美元，2020年亏损1.47亿美元。</p>\n<p>不过话说回来，造车本就是门烧钱的生意，亏损可以说是造车新势力的常态。</p>\n<p>据老虎ESOP整理，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车2020年的净亏损达到了56亿元，同期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>的亏损也达到了27亿元。靠融资生存也是互联网造车的通行做法。</p>\n<p>根据今年年初企查查的一份《近十年新能源汽车投融资数据报告》显示，FF公司自成立以来共披露了8次融资事件，融资总金额达309.6亿元人民币。在国内新能源汽车品牌中居行业第二位，而排名第一的蔚来汽车，融资金额达327.8亿元人民币。</p>\n<p>据FF预估，未来还将需要约15亿美元的额外资金。预计2024年实现盈利和正现金流。</p>\n<p>不过量产确实是FF的一块心病。FF公司虽已成立数年，但其一直没有车型正式上市。相比之下，国内“造车新势力”的步伐就走得更快。</p>\n<p>今年11月，首次出现了4家国内造车新势力交付量突破1万辆的市场局面。小鹏、蔚来、理想、哪吒分别交付了15613辆、10878辆、13485辆、10013辆新能源汽车。</p>\n<p>面对着国内这些造车新势力持续走高的股价和稳定增长的交付量，FF耗时了八年仍然没有跨过量产的门槛，确实让人为FF汽车的未来捏了一把汗。</p>\n<p>当然FF也公布了自己的量产日期，早在今年3月份就提到将在完成SPAC借壳上市后约12个月交付FF91车辆。</p>\n<p>也就是说按照计划，顺利的话最晚在明年8月份贾跃亭就可以真正迎来FF新车的量产。</p>\n<p>所以，对于目前的FF和贾跃亭来说，明年8月份前法拉第未来顺利量产才是最大的目标，如果明年能顺利量产，一切质疑自然会不攻自破。</p>\n<p>不过目前新能源汽车行业已经进入到了一个群雄逐鹿的时代，一方面来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的打压；另一方面是国内造车新势力的崛起，国内传统车企不断推出高端新能源品牌，或将旗下新能源车品牌独立运营。再加上一众崭新“面孔”的纷纷涌入，使得新能源汽车市场的竞争已经异常激烈。</p>\n<p>如此看来，竞争激烈的市场状况下，如果FF91能够如期上市，也同样面临很大的压力。</p>\n<p><b>FF共发布五期股权激励计划</b></p>\n<p>尽管面临种种财务困顿，FF对于团队的股权激励仍然非常重视。在贾跃亭进行个人破产重组时，FF也表示未来仍将继续向员工提供基于股权的报酬激励。</p>\n<p>据老虎ESOP梳理，2015 年，FF实施了全员股权激励计划，许诺让股权激励真正覆盖全体员工。2018年重修计划，更名“2018 股权计划”，向员工、董事和顾问授予3亿A类普通股奖励。</p>\n<p>2019年5月2日，FF实施了短期激励计划，也叫做“STI方案”，向员工、董事和顾问授予最多1亿B类普通股的奖励。之后，为激励管理人员，贾跃亭参考<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、咨询行业的合伙制度，通过FF GP以及其他三家中间控股公司实施了FF Intelligent 合伙计划，合伙人以0.50 美元的单价，认购FF GP 的股权。</p>\n<p>2020年，为了激励和奖励重组债务人实现法拉第集团的战略目标，FF采用管理层激励股权计划，该计划命名“未来股权激励计划”。</p>\n<p>2021年，FF通过了“2021年股权激励计划”，该计划将保留4957.36万股股份用于股权激励。</p>\n<p><b>总 结</b></p>\n<p>目前FF91量产在即，毕竟造车不易，梦想可贵，还是多给贾总一些耐心。至于未来FF91有什么优势，能否在竞争如此激烈的新能源汽车市场生存下去，我们拭目以待吧。</p>\n<p>本文数据来源于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>、界面新闻、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经等。</p>\n<p>本文来自微信公众号“老虎ESOP股权激励”（ID:TigerESOP），作者：董雯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>经授权发布。</p>","source":"lsy1639123023242","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>8年未交付一辆车，法拉第未来是否还有未来？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n8年未交付一辆车，法拉第未来是否还有未来？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-10 15:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTEzNDE1NQ==&mid=2247497126&idx=1&sn=4d859b69d86e31bf5ff4bfc54572db78&chksm=9046bd02a73134140a1edb1143131c028f3cd98430074ca1d6e0f4de55e9d197158b3121a4d1&token=1147285743&lang=zh_CN#rd><strong>老虎谈股权激励</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：董雯\n2017年，贾跃亭一手创建的法拉第未来Faraday Future(以下简称FF) 首款量产车型FF91发布。2020年末，FF91称已获得超过 1.4 万辆订单。\n今年7月22日，FF在纳斯达克挂牌上市，贾跃亭迎来了高光时刻，并表示要在一年之内将首批FF91电动车保质保量地交付到消费者手中。\n那时大家对贾跃亭又多了一份期待，不过最近，贾总貌似又遇到了些麻烦事。\n累计亏损约28亿美元\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTEzNDE1NQ==&mid=2247497126&idx=1&sn=4d859b69d86e31bf5ff4bfc54572db78&chksm=9046bd02a73134140a1edb1143131c028f3cd98430074ca1d6e0f4de55e9d197158b3121a4d1&token=1147285743&lang=zh_CN#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ac86bdab506d9898920e00d5d818b2","relate_stocks":{"BK4109":"特种化学制品","FF":"FutureFuel Corporation"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTEzNDE1NQ==&mid=2247497126&idx=1&sn=4d859b69d86e31bf5ff4bfc54572db78&chksm=9046bd02a73134140a1edb1143131c028f3cd98430074ca1d6e0f4de55e9d197158b3121a4d1&token=1147285743&lang=zh_CN#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190400476","content_text":"作者：董雯\n2017年，贾跃亭一手创建的法拉第未来Faraday Future(以下简称FF) 首款量产车型FF91发布。2020年末，FF91称已获得超过 1.4 万辆订单。\n今年7月22日，FF在纳斯达克挂牌上市，贾跃亭迎来了高光时刻，并表示要在一年之内将首批FF91电动车保质保量地交付到消费者手中。\n那时大家对贾跃亭又多了一份期待，不过最近，贾总貌似又遇到了些麻烦事。\n累计亏损约28亿美元\n美国东部时间12月7日，FF召开电话会议，透露了最新的企业进展。FF预计Q3经营亏损将增至约1.43亿美元，净亏损则增至约2.8亿美元。对比下，2020年Q3的营业亏损和净亏损分别为约1800万美元和3300万美元。\n产品方面，FF全球 CEO 毕福康（Carsten Breitfeld）表示“（FF）第一辆车已经开始生产。”据其介绍称，目前，FF工厂已经完成了设备安装，也已经获得了试生产批准，汉福德工厂具备预生产资格。距离批量生产更近了一步。\n对于未来，毕福康称相信有足够的资金来完成 FF91，新车仍然计划在2022年7月推出。\n据老虎ESOP整理，自FF成立以来，预计累计亏损约28亿美元，公司预计未来或将继续亏损。另外，在不久前FF还传出了强制退市的传闻。\n11月26日，FF收到了一份来自美国证券交易委员会发出的退市警示函。随后FF发布澄清说明，由于公司未能及时提交季度收益报告，FF被要求在60天内提交截至2021年9月30日的季报，否则可能被要求退市。\n\n彼时，FF解释称之所以未按时提交财报，主要是受到了美国投资机构不准确披露指控的影响。\n2021年10月，美国投资机构J Capital Research发布了一份28页的关于FF的做空报告。\n在报告的开头，J Capital Research 直指FF一直被大家诟病的几个问题，“经过8年的经营，FF公司未能交付一辆汽车并再次表示‘明年交付’，此外公司违背了在美国及中国五个地方建厂的承诺，对于第六个工厂建设也一再推迟。”\n而对于做空机构的报告，贾跃亭认为其言论是“冷饭热炒，无稽之谈”。FF也表示，公司自上市之后在产品力提升、产品测试、供应链、生产制造、销售、业务拓展等领域已取得了重大进展，且有信心在2022年7月按时交付FF 91。\n亏损成造车常态\n自FF上市之日起，其股票价格表现并不优秀。截至12月8日，FF的股价已经从上市首日的收盘价每股13.98美元，总市值约45.11亿美元，跌至股价仅剩5.66美元，市值18.36亿美元。不到五个月的时间市值缩水近60%。\n据统计，FF至今尚未产生任何收入，2019年亏损1.42亿美元，2020年亏损1.47亿美元。\n不过话说回来，造车本就是门烧钱的生意，亏损可以说是造车新势力的常态。\n据老虎ESOP整理，蔚来汽车2020年的净亏损达到了56亿元，同期小鹏汽车的亏损也达到了27亿元。靠融资生存也是互联网造车的通行做法。\n根据今年年初企查查的一份《近十年新能源汽车投融资数据报告》显示，FF公司自成立以来共披露了8次融资事件，融资总金额达309.6亿元人民币。在国内新能源汽车品牌中居行业第二位，而排名第一的蔚来汽车，融资金额达327.8亿元人民币。\n据FF预估，未来还将需要约15亿美元的额外资金。预计2024年实现盈利和正现金流。\n不过量产确实是FF的一块心病。FF公司虽已成立数年，但其一直没有车型正式上市。相比之下，国内“造车新势力”的步伐就走得更快。\n今年11月，首次出现了4家国内造车新势力交付量突破1万辆的市场局面。小鹏、蔚来、理想、哪吒分别交付了15613辆、10878辆、13485辆、10013辆新能源汽车。\n面对着国内这些造车新势力持续走高的股价和稳定增长的交付量，FF耗时了八年仍然没有跨过量产的门槛，确实让人为FF汽车的未来捏了一把汗。\n当然FF也公布了自己的量产日期，早在今年3月份就提到将在完成SPAC借壳上市后约12个月交付FF91车辆。\n也就是说按照计划，顺利的话最晚在明年8月份贾跃亭就可以真正迎来FF新车的量产。\n所以，对于目前的FF和贾跃亭来说，明年8月份前法拉第未来顺利量产才是最大的目标，如果明年能顺利量产，一切质疑自然会不攻自破。\n不过目前新能源汽车行业已经进入到了一个群雄逐鹿的时代，一方面来自特斯拉的打压；另一方面是国内造车新势力的崛起，国内传统车企不断推出高端新能源品牌，或将旗下新能源车品牌独立运营。再加上一众崭新“面孔”的纷纷涌入，使得新能源汽车市场的竞争已经异常激烈。\n如此看来，竞争激烈的市场状况下，如果FF91能够如期上市，也同样面临很大的压力。\nFF共发布五期股权激励计划\n尽管面临种种财务困顿，FF对于团队的股权激励仍然非常重视。在贾跃亭进行个人破产重组时，FF也表示未来仍将继续向员工提供基于股权的报酬激励。\n据老虎ESOP梳理，2015 年，FF实施了全员股权激励计划，许诺让股权激励真正覆盖全体员工。2018年重修计划，更名“2018 股权计划”，向员工、董事和顾问授予3亿A类普通股奖励。\n2019年5月2日，FF实施了短期激励计划，也叫做“STI方案”，向员工、董事和顾问授予最多1亿B类普通股的奖励。之后，为激励管理人员，贾跃亭参考阿里巴巴、咨询行业的合伙制度，通过FF GP以及其他三家中间控股公司实施了FF Intelligent 合伙计划，合伙人以0.50 美元的单价，认购FF GP 的股权。\n2020年，为了激励和奖励重组债务人实现法拉第集团的战略目标，FF采用管理层激励股权计划，该计划命名“未来股权激励计划”。\n2021年，FF通过了“2021年股权激励计划”，该计划将保留4957.36万股股份用于股权激励。\n总 结\n目前FF91量产在即，毕竟造车不易，梦想可贵，还是多给贾总一些耐心。至于未来FF91有什么优势，能否在竞争如此激烈的新能源汽车市场生存下去，我们拭目以待吧。\n本文数据来源于金融界、界面新闻、新浪财经等。\n本文来自微信公众号“老虎ESOP股权激励”（ID:TigerESOP），作者：董雯，36氪经授权发布。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871429743,"gmtCreate":1637107136414,"gmtModify":1637107136414,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"直接加个零卖给下家，这些股票真是吓死我了","listText":"直接加个零卖给下家，这些股票真是吓死我了","text":"直接加个零卖给下家，这些股票真是吓死我了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871429743","repostId":"1125979652","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125979652","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1637058775,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125979652?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-16 18:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"千亿市值不是梦，Lucid上升潜力巨大","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125979652","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"一直被视为特斯拉最主要竞争对手之一的Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID)在美东时间11月15日（周一）美股盘后公布了三季度业绩报告。\n财报亮点颇多\n财报显示，第三季度营收为23.2万美元","content":"<p>一直被视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>最主要竞争对手之一的Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID)在美东时间11月15日（周一）美股盘后公布了三季度业绩报告。</p>\n<p><b>财报亮点颇多</b></p>\n<p>财报显示，第三季度营收为23.2万美元，低于市场普遍预期的125万美元，也低于去年同期的33.4万美元，同比下降31%;净亏损5.24亿美元，上年同期为1.61亿美元，同比扩大225%;摊薄后每股亏损0.43美元，上年同期为6.64美元。此外，该公司目前的现金余额为 48 亿美元。</p>\n<p>虽然财报并不亮眼，但是好消息是Lucid刚刚发布的电动汽车Air已经获得了超过1.7万份订单，预计订单金额超过13亿美元。值得一提的是上个月的订单量就超过 13,000 台，表明其订单增长迅速。该公司预计明年将生产2万辆汽车。</p>\n<p>巨额现金、订单增长和未来产量令人浮想联翩，财报公布后，在11月15日的尾盘交易中，Lucid股价上涨4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5a25063a413be165056ef7e7ea3dcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Lucid走势图，来源：Investing.com</p>\n<p><b>产品本身是关键</b></p>\n<p>抛开资本、运营、产能等问题，一个汽车公司最大核心是其所制造的汽车本身。特斯拉和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>等新能源车商之所以能有如此高的成就，离不开其过硬的产品实力。</p>\n<p>Lucid的核心竞争力在于一定程度上解决了“续航焦虑”，单次充电最远可行驶520英里（EPA认证续航里程，约837公里），是美国市场上销售的电动汽车中续航最长的车型，它原本对标的特斯拉超长续航车型Model S Plaid+生产早已取消。</p>\n<p>在最近的MotorTrend年度最佳汽车奖评中，Lucid Air击败一众对手，荣获“年度汽车”奖。Lucid Air在效率、价值、设计先进性、工程卓越性、安全性和预期功能的性能六项关键标准中表现出色，击败了包括奔驰EQS和保时捷Taycan等24名竞争对手。</p>\n<p>不过Lucid Air是一款新车，产品质量还需市场进一步检验。</p>\n<p>目前Lucid Air的售价为16.9万美元（约合104万人民币左右），即使未来较低配置的车型也要13.9万美元，这个价格比特斯拉最顶配的轿跑车型Model S Plaid的售价12.3740美元，还要贵上不少。</p>\n<p>消费者是否会为了购买一台新上市的电动车而付出如此高昂的价格呢？</p>\n<p><b>产能稳固提高</b></p>\n<p>Lucid位于亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德的先进制造工厂(AMP-1)已投入运营，年产量可达3.4万辆。预计到 2023年底，产能将达到每年9万辆。第二阶段的扩建预计将增加285万平方英尺的生产面积，并将进一步垂直整合生产流程。</p>\n<p>展望未来，Lucid 首席执行官Peter Rawlinson表示看到市场对Lucid Air的巨大需求，随着亚利桑那州工厂的生产规模扩大，预订量也在加快增长。公司仍有望在2022年实现生产2万辆汽车的目标。但是他也承认，全球供应链的持续中断可能会带来风险，该公司正在采取措施来降低这一风险。</p>\n<p>产能的提高对于车企来说至关重要，规模化意味着成本将会下降，也意味着更大的定价空间。就像特斯拉一样，在规模扩大之后，随着成本下降，特斯拉也在不断地下调其电动车的售价。</p>\n<p><b>升值潜力大</b></p>\n<p>Lucid目前市值约为726亿美元，比同为造车新势力的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车 (NYSE:NIO)406亿美元和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a> (NYSE:XPEV)303亿美元高很多，但是比第一梯队特斯拉 (NASDAQ:TSLA)1万亿美元和比亚迪 (SZ:002594)1360亿美元还是差上不少。</p>\n<p>不过值得一提的是，一辆车都还没有卖刚上市四天估值就已经达到1300亿美元，仅次于比亚迪的Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN)，已经成为全球市值第五的汽车制造商，要知道特斯拉当初上市市值也只有20亿美元。</p>\n<p>Rivian和Lucid一个主打电动SUV和皮卡，一个主打电动轿车，但是不论从哪个角度来看Lucid都不比Rivian要差，甚至很多方面都要强于Rivian。不能仅仅是因为其背靠<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和福特市值就可以比Lucid高出将近一倍。若以Rivian为标准的话，Lucid显然是被低估了，而且上升潜力也更大。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-16 18:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>一直被视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>最主要竞争对手之一的Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID)在美东时间11月15日（周一）美股盘后公布了三季度业绩报告。</p>\n<p><b>财报亮点颇多</b></p>\n<p>财报显示，第三季度营收为23.2万美元，低于市场普遍预期的125万美元，也低于去年同期的33.4万美元，同比下降31%;净亏损5.24亿美元，上年同期为1.61亿美元，同比扩大225%;摊薄后每股亏损0.43美元，上年同期为6.64美元。此外，该公司目前的现金余额为 48 亿美元。</p>\n<p>虽然财报并不亮眼，但是好消息是Lucid刚刚发布的电动汽车Air已经获得了超过1.7万份订单，预计订单金额超过13亿美元。值得一提的是上个月的订单量就超过 13,000 台，表明其订单增长迅速。该公司预计明年将生产2万辆汽车。</p>\n<p>巨额现金、订单增长和未来产量令人浮想联翩，财报公布后，在11月15日的尾盘交易中，Lucid股价上涨4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5a25063a413be165056ef7e7ea3dcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Lucid走势图，来源：Investing.com</p>\n<p><b>产品本身是关键</b></p>\n<p>抛开资本、运营、产能等问题，一个汽车公司最大核心是其所制造的汽车本身。特斯拉和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>等新能源车商之所以能有如此高的成就，离不开其过硬的产品实力。</p>\n<p>Lucid的核心竞争力在于一定程度上解决了“续航焦虑”，单次充电最远可行驶520英里（EPA认证续航里程，约837公里），是美国市场上销售的电动汽车中续航最长的车型，它原本对标的特斯拉超长续航车型Model S Plaid+生产早已取消。</p>\n<p>在最近的MotorTrend年度最佳汽车奖评中，Lucid Air击败一众对手，荣获“年度汽车”奖。Lucid Air在效率、价值、设计先进性、工程卓越性、安全性和预期功能的性能六项关键标准中表现出色，击败了包括奔驰EQS和保时捷Taycan等24名竞争对手。</p>\n<p>不过Lucid Air是一款新车，产品质量还需市场进一步检验。</p>\n<p>目前Lucid Air的售价为16.9万美元（约合104万人民币左右），即使未来较低配置的车型也要13.9万美元，这个价格比特斯拉最顶配的轿跑车型Model S Plaid的售价12.3740美元，还要贵上不少。</p>\n<p>消费者是否会为了购买一台新上市的电动车而付出如此高昂的价格呢？</p>\n<p><b>产能稳固提高</b></p>\n<p>Lucid位于亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德的先进制造工厂(AMP-1)已投入运营，年产量可达3.4万辆。预计到 2023年底，产能将达到每年9万辆。第二阶段的扩建预计将增加285万平方英尺的生产面积，并将进一步垂直整合生产流程。</p>\n<p>展望未来，Lucid 首席执行官Peter Rawlinson表示看到市场对Lucid Air的巨大需求，随着亚利桑那州工厂的生产规模扩大，预订量也在加快增长。公司仍有望在2022年实现生产2万辆汽车的目标。但是他也承认，全球供应链的持续中断可能会带来风险，该公司正在采取措施来降低这一风险。</p>\n<p>产能的提高对于车企来说至关重要，规模化意味着成本将会下降，也意味着更大的定价空间。就像特斯拉一样，在规模扩大之后，随着成本下降，特斯拉也在不断地下调其电动车的售价。</p>\n<p><b>升值潜力大</b></p>\n<p>Lucid目前市值约为726亿美元，比同为造车新势力的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车 (NYSE:NIO)406亿美元和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a> (NYSE:XPEV)303亿美元高很多，但是比第一梯队特斯拉 (NASDAQ:TSLA)1万亿美元和比亚迪 (SZ:002594)1360亿美元还是差上不少。</p>\n<p>不过值得一提的是，一辆车都还没有卖刚上市四天估值就已经达到1300亿美元，仅次于比亚迪的Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN)，已经成为全球市值第五的汽车制造商，要知道特斯拉当初上市市值也只有20亿美元。</p>\n<p>Rivian和Lucid一个主打电动SUV和皮卡，一个主打电动轿车，但是不论从哪个角度来看Lucid都不比Rivian要差，甚至很多方面都要强于Rivian。不能仅仅是因为其背靠<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和福特市值就可以比Lucid高出将近一倍。若以Rivian为标准的话，Lucid显然是被低估了，而且上升潜力也更大。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feab65090845d7956ac1858c7f62d5db","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125979652","content_text":"一直被视为特斯拉最主要竞争对手之一的Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID)在美东时间11月15日（周一）美股盘后公布了三季度业绩报告。\n财报亮点颇多\n财报显示，第三季度营收为23.2万美元，低于市场普遍预期的125万美元，也低于去年同期的33.4万美元，同比下降31%;净亏损5.24亿美元，上年同期为1.61亿美元，同比扩大225%;摊薄后每股亏损0.43美元，上年同期为6.64美元。此外，该公司目前的现金余额为 48 亿美元。\n虽然财报并不亮眼，但是好消息是Lucid刚刚发布的电动汽车Air已经获得了超过1.7万份订单，预计订单金额超过13亿美元。值得一提的是上个月的订单量就超过 13,000 台，表明其订单增长迅速。该公司预计明年将生产2万辆汽车。\n巨额现金、订单增长和未来产量令人浮想联翩，财报公布后，在11月15日的尾盘交易中，Lucid股价上涨4%。\nLucid走势图，来源：Investing.com\n产品本身是关键\n抛开资本、运营、产能等问题，一个汽车公司最大核心是其所制造的汽车本身。特斯拉和比亚迪等新能源车商之所以能有如此高的成就，离不开其过硬的产品实力。\nLucid的核心竞争力在于一定程度上解决了“续航焦虑”，单次充电最远可行驶520英里（EPA认证续航里程，约837公里），是美国市场上销售的电动汽车中续航最长的车型，它原本对标的特斯拉超长续航车型Model S Plaid+生产早已取消。\n在最近的MotorTrend年度最佳汽车奖评中，Lucid Air击败一众对手，荣获“年度汽车”奖。Lucid Air在效率、价值、设计先进性、工程卓越性、安全性和预期功能的性能六项关键标准中表现出色，击败了包括奔驰EQS和保时捷Taycan等24名竞争对手。\n不过Lucid Air是一款新车，产品质量还需市场进一步检验。\n目前Lucid Air的售价为16.9万美元（约合104万人民币左右），即使未来较低配置的车型也要13.9万美元，这个价格比特斯拉最顶配的轿跑车型Model S Plaid的售价12.3740美元，还要贵上不少。\n消费者是否会为了购买一台新上市的电动车而付出如此高昂的价格呢？\n产能稳固提高\nLucid位于亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德的先进制造工厂(AMP-1)已投入运营，年产量可达3.4万辆。预计到 2023年底，产能将达到每年9万辆。第二阶段的扩建预计将增加285万平方英尺的生产面积，并将进一步垂直整合生产流程。\n展望未来，Lucid 首席执行官Peter Rawlinson表示看到市场对Lucid Air的巨大需求，随着亚利桑那州工厂的生产规模扩大，预订量也在加快增长。公司仍有望在2022年实现生产2万辆汽车的目标。但是他也承认，全球供应链的持续中断可能会带来风险，该公司正在采取措施来降低这一风险。\n产能的提高对于车企来说至关重要，规模化意味着成本将会下降，也意味着更大的定价空间。就像特斯拉一样，在规模扩大之后，随着成本下降，特斯拉也在不断地下调其电动车的售价。\n升值潜力大\nLucid目前市值约为726亿美元，比同为造车新势力的蔚来汽车 (NYSE:NIO)406亿美元和小鹏汽车 (NYSE:XPEV)303亿美元高很多，但是比第一梯队特斯拉 (NASDAQ:TSLA)1万亿美元和比亚迪 (SZ:002594)1360亿美元还是差上不少。\n不过值得一提的是，一辆车都还没有卖刚上市四天估值就已经达到1300亿美元，仅次于比亚迪的Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN)，已经成为全球市值第五的汽车制造商，要知道特斯拉当初上市市值也只有20亿美元。\nRivian和Lucid一个主打电动SUV和皮卡，一个主打电动轿车，但是不论从哪个角度来看Lucid都不比Rivian要差，甚至很多方面都要强于Rivian。不能仅仅是因为其背靠亚马逊和福特市值就可以比Lucid高出将近一倍。若以Rivian为标准的话，Lucid显然是被低估了，而且上升潜力也更大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866999903,"gmtCreate":1632718286202,"gmtModify":1632718506955,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"坐看看空美光的被打脸","listText":"坐看看空美光的被打脸","text":"坐看看空美光的被打脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866999903","repostId":"2170645634","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170645634","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1632713105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170645634?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 11:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170645634","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　美光科技将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。　　该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。　　在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。　　Zacks予美光科技的评级为4（卖出），根据模型，美光本季度的收益可能不会超过预期。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>（MU.US）将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。 Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。</p>\n<p>该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893e998d1767599e575186603826c2d7\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>需要考虑的因素</p>\n<p>在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。</p>\n<p>疫情期间的远程工作和在线学习趋势也促进了对云存储的需求。 此外，封锁促进了全球在线和电子商务服务的使用，迫使数据中心运营商增加容量，以适应云服务的需求激增。 这些因素都可能提高美光在本季度的营收。</p>\n<p>预计第四季度的云计算、图形、个人电脑和笔记本电脑、5G和汽车市场的DRAM Bit出货量稳步上升。</p>\n<p>不过，利润率较低的 NAND产品的占比上升，加上内存价格较低且制造成本难以下降，预计将使利润率吃紧。</p>\n<p>此外，更高的预审费用和人工费用可能对美光公司第四季度的业绩产生负面影响。 在第二季度的财报电话会议上，该公司指出，由于预审费用和人工费用的增加，预计2021财年下半年的运营费用将增加。</p>\n<p>另外，由于恢复加薪，预计第四季度的运营费用将大幅增加。 这可能会损害季度利润率和盈利能力。</p>\n<p>Zacks予美光科技的评级为4（卖出），根据模型，美光本季度的收益可能不会超过预期。</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-27 11:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-27/doc-iktzscyx6559050.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美光科技（MU.US）将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。 Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。\n该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。\n\n需要考虑的因素\n在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-27/doc-iktzscyx6559050.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b81c0c0111c68e734ad1f1bf2673e76","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-27/doc-iktzscyx6559050.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170645634","content_text":"美光科技（MU.US）将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。 Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。\n该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。\n\n需要考虑的因素\n在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。\n疫情期间的远程工作和在线学习趋势也促进了对云存储的需求。 此外，封锁促进了全球在线和电子商务服务的使用，迫使数据中心运营商增加容量，以适应云服务的需求激增。 这些因素都可能提高美光在本季度的营收。\n预计第四季度的云计算、图形、个人电脑和笔记本电脑、5G和汽车市场的DRAM Bit出货量稳步上升。\n不过，利润率较低的 NAND产品的占比上升，加上内存价格较低且制造成本难以下降，预计将使利润率吃紧。\n此外，更高的预审费用和人工费用可能对美光公司第四季度的业绩产生负面影响。 在第二季度的财报电话会议上，该公司指出，由于预审费用和人工费用的增加，预计2021财年下半年的运营费用将增加。\n另外，由于恢复加薪，预计第四季度的运营费用将大幅增加。 这可能会损害季度利润率和盈利能力。\nZacks予美光科技的评级为4（卖出），根据模型，美光本季度的收益可能不会超过预期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888688797,"gmtCreate":1631493521719,"gmtModify":1631493521719,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有没有人像我这样，对这些内容完全看不懂，也不知道这些技术和发展到底是为了什么，对社会和进步是什么用的？","listText":"有没有人像我这样，对这些内容完全看不懂，也不知道这些技术和发展到底是为了什么，对社会和进步是什么用的？","text":"有没有人像我这样，对这些内容完全看不懂，也不知道这些技术和发展到底是为了什么，对社会和进步是什么用的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888688797","repostId":"1132461050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132461050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631433002,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132461050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-12 15:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"一文读懂NFT：全面解析NFT发展简史、价值及未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132461050","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"导语\n今年被称为 NFT 的“元年”，Uniswap一双袜子卖16万美元，推特创始人五个单词拍出250万美元，加密艺术家Beeple的数字作品“First 5000 Days”在佳士得单一拍品网上以6","content":"<p><b>导语</b></p>\n<p>今年被称为 NFT 的“元年”，Uniswap一双袜子卖16万美元，推特创始人五个单词拍出250万美元，加密艺术家Beeple的数字作品“First 5000 Days”在佳士得单一拍品网上以6900万美元价格成交；这一切都让人觉得不可思议。</p>\n<p>对于大部分普通投资者，或者行业外人士来说，NFT 的故事似乎稍显突兀，NFT 究竟是下一个“美丽新世界”还是泡沫？说实话，市场结果往往是后验的，在事后解释起来我们往往头头是道，却并不那么容易判定这一新兴市场的走向。不过可以断定的是，投入时间去了解 NFT 并不会带给我们多大的损失，而如果有幸在 NFT 成熟时，我们对此市场的运作熟捻于心，投入的时间自然容易获得更好的回报。况且单单 NFT 市场带来的有趣的玩意，也足够作为奖励了。</p>\n<p>如果你对 NFT 感兴趣，希望这篇文章里对 NFT 全面的解析可以帮到你。不过对于本文的长度，我提前道歉。本文旨在提供对非同质化代币的深入概述，主要包括NFT的发展历史、市场发展现状、应用层面、价值与未来等，并附上了若干 NFT 市场的查询工具。这些知识将帮助我们更好的理解、参与 NFT 这一新兴市场。我们希望无论你是一个 NFT 入门新手，或是 NFT 资深玩家，读完都能有所收获。</p>\n<p><b>NFT 是怎么诞生的？</b></p>\n<p>当我们理解一个新生事物，必须要首先了解其起源，通过对其源头以及演变过程作充分了解，才能深刻理解新生事物可能蕴含的未来价值基础。因此理解 NFT ，我们也从 NFT 是怎么诞生的说起。NFT 的概念是由加密猫CryptoKitties 的创始人兼 CTO Dieter Shirley 在 2017 年正式提出的。当年，随着 BTC 在短短的 2 个月内从 5000 美金上涨到20000 万美金，在这场声势浩大的加密牛市中，一款加密猫游戏迅速走红。2017 年夏天，ERC20 通证标准与基于 ERC20 的 1C0 尤为火爆，在加密猫推出后，很多用户问到 Dieter 加密猫和 ERC20 如何交互，而实际上加密猫和 ERC20 是无法实现兼容的，因为加密猫是基于另一个通证标准 ERC721的，是非同质化通证，而 ERC20 是同质化通证。为了更好的解释加密猫与 ERC20 的区别，Dieter 想出了一个固定而简单的回答，随后Dieter 就提出了 NFT 的概念，即非同质化通证的概念。于是，随着加密猫的火爆，NFT 的概念迅速走进了大众视野。由此，数字资产不再只是指代加密货币，而是由同质化的加密货币与非同质化的 NFT 代表的加密资产组合而成。虽然 NFT 的正式概念是在 2017 年由Dieter 提出的，但是基于 NFT 的类似概念和应用却是在更早之前就出现了，<b>了解 NFT 的历史演进将更有利于我们了解 NFT 的价值和应用。</b></p>\n<p><b>·1993 年：加密交易卡</b></p>\n<p>关于 NFT 的概念及其前身可追溯至1993 年的加密交易卡（ Crypto Trading Cards）。大致的情况就是，在 1993 年 Hal Finney （第一个收到中本聪比特币的资深密码学专家，比特币先驱）分享了一个有趣的概念，其大意是：</p>\n<p>“我对购买和销售数字现金的想法多了一些思考，我想到了一个展示它的方法。我们在买卖「加密交易卡」。密码学的爱好者会喜欢这些迷人的密码艺术的例子。请注意它完美的组合呈现形式是——单向函数和数字签名的混合，以及随机盲法。这是一件多么值得珍藏和展示给你的朋友和家人的完美作品。”</p>\n<p>这可能是我们可以查询到的最早关于 NFT 的阐述和想法，其逻辑虽然和我们小时候买干脆面凑一整套水浒传系列卡片一样；但是其表达的形式却是依托加密学和数学的呈现形式，然后随机排列组成一个系列的套卡，Hal将其定义为加密卡。</p>\n<p><b>·2012 年：ColoredCoin （彩色币）</b></p>\n<p>2012年第一个类似 NFT 的通证 Colored Coin（彩色币）诞生。彩色币由小面额的比特币组成，最小单位为一聪(比特币的最小单位)。它可代表多种资产并具有多样用途，包括财产、优惠券、发行公司股份等。虽然彩色币在设计上仍然存在着很多缺陷，但是彩色币展现出了现实资产上链的可塑性及发展潜力，这奠定了 NFT 的发展基础。</p>\n<p><b>·2014 年：Counterparty</b></p>\n<p>彩色币的诞生让很多人意识到了将资产发行到区块链上的巨大潜力。2014年，Robert Dermody，Adam Krellenstein 和 Evan Wagner 创立 Counterparty。这是一个点对点的金融平台，并于比特币区块链之上建立了分布式开源互联网协议。Counterparty 支持资产创建，拥有去中心化交易所、XCP 合约币及许多项目和资产，包括卡牌游戏和 Meme 交易。而真正推动 NFT 的出现的便是在 Counterparty 上创建的「Rare Pepes」——将热门 meme 悲伤蛙做成了NFT 的应用。meme 被翻译为模因，其实就是一种表情包、图片或者一句话、甚至一段视频、动图，可以简单的理解为我们熟知的「梗」。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e39eb2ffd5fea3e95896198eebc689c9\" tg-width=\"574\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>·2017年 6 月：CryptoPunks</b></p>\n<p>2017 年，正值以太坊生态开始发力之时，原本两个不在加密货币圈子的开发者机缘巧合之下带着一万多个像素头像来到了这个生态当中，并由此开发出了世界上第一个NFT项目——CryptoPunks。原本是做移动 App 开发的两人 John 和Matt，在 2017 年初制作了一个像素角色生成器，并创造了许多很酷的像素角色头像，当他们在想围绕着这些头像还能进一步做一点什么事的时候，他们关注到了区块链和当时正靠着 ERC20 通证标准逐渐火热的以太坊。于是他们便决定将这些像素头像放到区块链上，让这些本身也十分具有个性的像素头像通过区块链的特性可以得到验证，并让它们可以被他人拥有或者允许被他人转给其他人。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34f2105b9c5fbc57a08572605f055aeb\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>由于当时专门面向 NFT 领域的ERC721 或者 ERC1155通证协议还并未诞生，所以两人通过对 ERC20 的标准进行了适当的修改，最终将这些极具朋克精神的像素头像成功的搬到了以太坊上。</p>\n<p>由此，世界上真正意义上第一个 NFT 项目 CryptoPunks 诞生了。它开创性地将图像作为加密资产带入到了加密货币领域里，在当时各类 Token 满天飞的时候，作为一股清流给了众多从业者新的启发。</p>\n<p><b>·2017年 10 月：CryptoKitties</b></p>\n<p>随着创新项目 CryptoPunks 在以太坊上被炒得风生水起，这种非同质化的通证也带来了新的思潮。Dapper Labs团队受到 CryptoPunks 的启发，推出了专门面向构建非同质化通证的 ERC721 通证标准，并且随后基于 ERC721，Dapper Labs 团队推出了一款叫做 CryptoKitties 的加密猫游戏，让每一只数字猫都体现得独一无二，其价值不可复制「稀缺才能让价值最大化」。加密猫这样在价值塑造的呈现方式上面的创新，使得 CryptoKitties 迅速走红，并成为市场的主流，于是 NFT 开始大行其道。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d01d15105f46e79f240571522a211600\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>·2018-2019 回归建设</b></p>\n<p>2018年和2019年，NFT生态实现了大规模增长，此时这个空间里有100多个项目，而且还有更多的项目正在进行中。在 OpenSea 和 SuperRare 引领下，NFT 市场正在蓬勃发展。虽然与其他加密货币市场相比，当时的交易量还很小，但它们以快速的步伐增长，并取得了长足的进步。随着像 Metamask 一样的 Web3钱包不断改进，加入NFT生态变得更加容易。现在有一些网站，比如 nonfungible.com 和 nftcryptonews.com，它们深入探讨了 NFT 的市场指标、游戏指南，并提供有关该领域的标准信息。这张来自 The Block 的图片很好地说明了当前的 NFT 生态。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc713754471a3ec3b5279e3f03289f5a\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"305\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>·2020 年，爆发</b></p>\n<p>疫情之后，英美在内的各国政府选择了发放货币刺激经济的手段。短期之内，传统的投资方案失去了吸引力，更多人在风险投资上变得大胆，进而将目光投向看似蓝海的领域，FLOW 公链上线、NFT 与 DeFi 的结合实现了 Gamefi — NFT 迎来了它的春天。</p>\n<p>数字艺术家 Beeple 从 2007 年开始每天作图一张，最终把 5000 张图片拼接成一个 316 MB的 JPG 文件，并将其作为 NFT 出售。这个耗时 14 年创作的作品《Everydays: The First 5000 Days》，最终以 6934 万美元的价格在英国著名拍卖平台佳士得上卖出。</p>\n<p>Beeple 创纪录拍卖后，Zion Lateef Williamson、村上隆、Snoop Dogg、Eminem、Twitter CEO、Edward Joseph Snowden、Paris Hilton、姚明等各界明星、艺术家纷纷通过各种 NFT 平台发布了 NFT，再一次将 NFT 推向大众视野。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab4765f5a447b925db0bc367bb0be6a2\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>·2021年，GameFi</b></p>\n<p>年中，NFT 游戏 Axie Infinity 的销售暴涨，据 CryptoSlam 数据显示，截止8月7日，NFT 游戏项目 Axie Infinity 累计交易量突破 10 亿美元，在 NFT 市场中按成交量计算位列首位。Axie Infinity 的迅速上涨带动整个 NFT 市场板块的快速发展。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e303965c3f952ffcd3debcd0089b374f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>NFT市场发展现状</b></p>\n<p>从2021年2月开始， NFT开始爆炸式增长，每周交易量超过200万美元，截至到5月，在不到三个月的时间里，大型 NFT 项目的总市值增长高达2000%，热度甚至超过DeFi，从下面一组数据可见一斑：</p>\n<p><b>2.1 Google搜索量在2021年呈爆发式增长。</b></p>\n<p>根据Google Trends显示，关键词“NFT \"和 “Non-Fungible Token”全球的搜索量在2021年剧增，这也意味着NFT生态系统的关注度在不断攀升。这一部分转化成供需，继续扩宽NFT的规模。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d49ad21b3eb9019335dbf00ea53a9e51\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"324\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>2.2 2020年NFT交易人数及交易量同比增幅显著</b></p>\n<p>根据 NonFungible给出的多方宏观指标来分析近两年NFT市场走势，首先，“活跃钱包”定义 的是NFT智能合约的数量，在这里，同一个人可以同时拥有多个钱包；其次，“买家” 定义为在一年内至少购买过一次NFT的钱包数量，“卖家”定义为在一年内至少出售过 一次NFT的钱包数量；最后，“美金交易额”表示的是NFT的总交易量。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7deae68d8636561437e86a34023f5edc\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"171\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从市场供需格局上来看：</p>\n<p>2020年买家数量同比增长66.94%，卖家数量同比增长24.7%, 需求增速远大于供给增速，此供需格局有望吸引更多人进入市场，为NFT市场持续回暖注入强心剂。2020年活跃钱包数量较2019年增长97.09%，美金交易额涨幅则高达299%, 主要系更多的NFT项目进入市场，拉动交易量和交易金额双重增长；</p>\n<p>顺应此逻辑，若未来更多合适的新NFT项目进入市场，交易量/额也会相继增长，NFT市场繁荣态势也有望保持稳定或将进一步高企。总体来看，利好的市场供需格局叠加未来更多项目驻入市场带动资金的流入，NFT发展前景可期。</p>\n<p><b>2.3 总交易量和交易平台情况</b></p>\n<p>当前已逐步形成 NFT 的交易市场，而交易量主要集中在头部项目和头部平台，NBATopShot、CryptoPunks 等项目占据了绝大部分的 NFT 交易量，而 OpenSea 和 Nifty Gateway在各自的市场领域处于绝对领先。这种情况在数字艺术作品 NFT 中更为明显，头部艺术品和艺术家占据了绝大部分的成交额，更多的作品 NFT 则是低价售卖且无人问津。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4717adfcd834aaead8bd30e8559e35b1\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"228\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>NFT生态及版块分类</b></p>\n<p><b>3.1NFT生态分类</b></p>\n<p>从功能属性上，NFT 生态应用可分为四层：基础设施底层、项目创作层、交易流通层、衍生应用层。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c49c6b1b5d95aba681ced301c1b6729\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>目前 NFT 项目主要集中在数字收藏品、游戏资产和虚拟世界三个领域：</p>\n<p>数字收藏品往往是具有特定的文化印记和艺术美感的多媒体内容，如 NBA Top Shot 是 NBA 球星的短视频视频剪辑收藏品 NFT；游戏资产则更强调用途，如区块链卡牌游戏 Gods Unchained的卡牌 NFT 可以用到实际的对战中；</p>\n<p>虚拟世界一般拍卖其中的地块和特殊物品，如Decentraland 中的地块 NFT，用户拥有该 NFT 就可以建设改造相应的虚拟土地。除此之外，还有形形色色 NFT 项目，他们往往都具备稀缺性、属于某些文化圈子、或是有着相应的用途。</p>\n<p>在交易流通层：以 OpenSea 为首的综合性交易平台，为用户提供了稳定且方便的多品类，NFT 资产交易体验。OpenSea 支持交易多个项目平台的 NFT 资产交易，被称为“NFT 的亚马逊”，并且用户可在平台内上传数据内容免费铸造 NFT。</p>\n<p>而以 Nifty Gateway 为首的数字艺术交易平台，专注于服务艺术家与艺术品爱好者，业务重点在于通过NFT 与数字艺术的结合，解决传统数字艺术作品的缺少交易实体的痛点， 带来全新的数字艺术交易模式。</p>\n<p><b>3.2 板块细分</b></p>\n<p>从上述概念生态就可以看出，从涉及产品类别可以分为以下几个赛道：Game-NFT 、Art-NFT、FI-NFT、和IP-NFT，具体如下：</p>\n<p>NFT项目汇总项目类别项目艺术品OpenSea、Rarible、AsyIc Art、 Wrapped Cryptopunks 、 LinkArt、 Superare、 joy、Cryptograph、MakersPlace、KnownOrigin游戏Enjin、chiliz、Sorare、CryptoKitties、League of Kingdoms域名Ethereum Name service、Unstoppable Domanins保险Yinsure.finance虚拟世界Decentraland、The Sandbox、Somnium Space、Cryptovoxels、NeoWorld</p>\n<p><b>NFT的发展前景与展望</b></p>\n<p>Layer2：去中心化最核心的实施方式便是资产上链，资产储存在链上是实现去信任公平的前提，NFT同样如此。NFT的多样性将一系列复杂权益带到了加密世界中，例如知识产权、个人行为数据等等，这些资产需要在链上可见，可流转，可与区块链内部生态系统内的不同类型协议进行交互。</p>\n<p>Layer2的价值正是此处显现出来，首先，其费用更低效率更高，能够缓解NFT的复杂性带给公链性能的冲击和挑战；其次，虽然NFT功能的理想化实现对底层基础要求非常高，在更远的将来可能出现技术的突破也许会将NFT的应用场景带入新的高度，但在可见的未来，以太坊依然会是NFT的主要价值密集区，NFT生态也一定会与DeFi生态产生更多的交互，那么Layer2和侧链相对于其他独立公链就占据了得天独厚的优势。</p>\n<p>去中心化存储：目前NFT的存储还存在着不少问题，大多数NFT交易市场都尚未完全脱离中心化。虽然NFT本身存于链上，但由于链上无法存储大文件，与NFT对应的相关图片、视频等文件依然采取链下存储的方式，而只是将这些文件的Hash值数据存储在NFT代币元数据之中。这对于NFT持有者来说存在极大隐患，NFT的生杀大全其实并不掌握于持有者手中，这是相当荒谬的。所以去中心化存储变成了大势所趋，目前Arweave、IPFS等去中心化存储系统与NFT的联动愈发紧密，可以持续关注未来发展。</p>\n<p>除此之外，我们认为还有若干未来NFT可能具备潜力的发展方向：</p>\n<p>1、元宇宙+社会实验</p>\n<p>真正意义上的元宇宙何时才能落地应用还是未知数，但可以想象的一个非常有趣且可实施性较强的落地是——低成本社会实验。一些研究和实验在真实世界需要极高的世界、资本和社会成本，元宇宙为这类需求提供了非常好的替代选择，具体场景可以假设一方出于研究和学术需要出资设立虚拟实验项目，承接方负责按照实验需求的逻辑搭建特定虚拟世界并招募志愿者，志愿者进行虚拟实验并在成功完成后获得酬劳。一些人会将目前的区块链经济生态看做一场社会实验，但这个“实验”明显缺乏独立性且无法控制变量。元宇宙中的社会实验是与外界隔绝的、可回档、可重复的。</p>\n<p>2、预言机与聚合器</p>\n<p>目前NFT与DeFi、CeFi的交互形式非常有限，这就需要新的预言机和聚合协议将三者联动起来。目前NFT生态多链发展的趋势愈加明显，跨链桥的安全问题、效率问题和中心化问题都是困扰NFT生态间交互的障碍，为了提升效率和实效性，未来与NFT相关的预言机一定会大量出现。同样，NFT生态中，类似DeFi的1inch和yEarn等关乎用户交易费用和投资收益的聚合器也将大批出现。</p>\n<p>3、社交与展示</p>\n<p>NFT的持有者和价值信仰者需要一个“Show off”的舞台，这类社交聚集地对稳固NFT价值共识和吸引新鲜血液加入都非常有效。将NFT从重投机转向自我实现的有效方式便是为价值鼓吹者和价值信仰者提供表达和聆听的渠道。行业内的先行者和KOL需要一个属于NFT的“小红书”来向他人展示自己的爱好和格调。</p>\n<p><b>如何获得NFT?</b></p>\n<p>首先拆解 NFT，可以得到最主要的特征：</p>\n<p>· 依赖于区块链。NFT 一定是在区块链上发行的。</p>\n<p>· 需要使用某种协议，即便是自行创建的协议。</p>\n<p>· NFT 有可知的发行者，尽管有大量的诈骗者试图蒙骗，但通过地址可以比对</p>\n<p>· NFT 不一定具有稀缺性。NFT 的发行量理论上是可以无上限的，当然在当前的实践中，常常会设定数量上限。</p>\n<p>· NFT 可以如同质化代币一样，进行交易流转，除非发行合约增加了限制。</p>\n<p>因此，想要得到 NFT，可以有如下的方式：</p>\n<p>· 根据已有或自创的 NFT 协议，自己创造 NFT，下文我们会提到。</p>\n<p>· 参与 NFT 发行方进行的一级市场发行活动，用法币或者加密货币购买，得到 NFT。</p>\n<p>· 通过OpenSea、Rarible、AtomicMarket 等 NFT 二级交易市场，从其他 NFT 持有者手中购买 NFT。</p>\n<p>· 参与 NFT 发行方团队的社区营销活动，获得 NFT 空投。</p>\n<p>这四种方式，我们分别介绍一下。</p>\n<p><b>（1）自己创建 NFT</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/308a6f4af7f0d95993da3b280e1e641f\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>人人都可以创建 NFT，这带来了灵活性，当然也意味着，市场上 NFT 的质量良莠不齐，大量的 NFT 并不具有收藏或交易价值，这是参与 NFT 需要注意的。</p>\n<p>NFT 交易市场通常也提供了工具或教程，指引用户创建自己的 NFT，例如 Rarible（支持 ERC1155 协议）、OpenSea、MintBase 等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d37225c795c6ca05e8b07c3b4b2d14c8\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以最常见的 NFT 收藏类为例，可以将 NFT 的创建过程分为如下几个步骤：</p>\n<p>· 前期选型阶段，选择 NFT 所在的区块链、采用的协议和交易的市场，以及NFT 的主题、拟发行数量、面向人群和上线时候的玩法（众筹、免费发放、或者是作为挖矿奖励发放）。NFT 发行也是一次产品创造的过程。</p>\n<p>· 根据 NFT 主题和面向人群，设计好相应的图片、文案、甚至多媒体素材。对收藏类 NFT 而言，更要着重考虑的是不同类别系列、以及对应收藏品的稀缺程度的设计和进化的玩法（普通、稀缺、传奇、史诗等）。如果涉及到游戏内 NFT 资产，也需要考虑好 NFT 不同的种类，如何在游戏内应用。这一步最为繁琐。</p>\n<p>· 可以使用在线工具创建 NFT，提交图片、文案、稀缺度、自定义属性、价格等信息，然后点击提交之后，会将 NFT 合约部署至区块链上。</p>\n<p>· 查看和测试自己的 NFT 作品，是否可以交易、转账，部分网站采取审核制的话，还需要额外进行 NFT 提交操作。</p>\n<p>· 最后，可以在 NFT 交易平台中创建 NFT 商店，展示和出售自己创建的 NFT。</p>\n<p>根据不同 NFT 或者创建工具的不同，会多少有一些区别，不过大致的过程如上所示。正如前文所说，Rarible（支持 ERC1155 协议）、OpenSea、MintBase 等交易所，以及 WAX 区块链上的 AtomicHub 等交易平台也都有提供各自的创建工具，感兴趣的读者可以自行探索。</p>\n<p><b>（2）参与 NFT 的一级市场发行</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6803b55e877144604da28271f27056a5\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>许多 NFT 团队会采取限时限量的方式，进行 NFT 的首次发行，称之为 NFT 一级市场发行。</p>\n<p>NFT 打新通常接收法币或者加密货币作为支付方式，参与者可以得到对应的 NFT 或者一组 NFT，然后进行拆包，如同小时候玩的小浣熊收藏卡，撕开之后可以获得不同的卡，增加了玩盲盒的趣味。</p>\n<p>值得提醒的是，NFT 一级市场参与是高风险的活动。</p>\n<p>尽管许多 NFT 团队会采取限量限时的方式，鼓动用户参与其中，制造 FOMO，且一级市场的参与者希望可以买入后转手在二级市场卖出的方式来赚到差价。但是，NFT 本身设计机制不够有吸引力、发行方的影响力不大、受众有限，都会影响到二级市场的参与深度和未来预期，导致一级市场参与者所持有的 NFT 卖不出去，造成损失。</p>\n<p>如同任何新兴市场一样，NFT 也是充满了高风险的交易类别，各位读者需要自行分辨。</p>\n<p><b>（3）从 NFT 交易市场上获得 NFT</b></p>\n<p>第三种获得 NFT 的方式，是从 NFT 交易市场上购买。以太坊社区中常用的 NFT 交易市场为 Rarible、OpenSea、SuperRare、Collectables 等，WAX 区块链上常见的交易市场为 AtomicMarket、Myth.Market 等交易市场。</p>\n<p>如果你使用过任何一个电商网站，就能熟悉 NFT 如何交易，因为 NFT 交易市场上的操作，跟网上购物没什么大区别。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da31af2e388cac932214dc41ce84c8e5\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>首先，在市场上浏览选择喜欢的 NFT，然后点击查看细节详情，如果确认无误之后，可以点击购买。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464d20a9b11c9708a1f2029f8c40355a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这里需要再啰嗦一句，由于 NFT 人人都可以创建，且多数收藏类 NFT 仅提供了图片的方式，加上以太坊的地址容易混淆，所以参与 NFT 交易时候一定睁大眼睛仔细分辨。曾经有人做过实验，做了一款使用同样参数、同样图片的 NFT 上架到 NFT 交易平台，有多位用户中招。</p>\n<p>尽管 NFT 交易平台有可能会对此进行限制，但是还是要根据 NFT 项目团队官方公布的地址信息为准，避免买到了李鬼。</p>\n<p><b>（4）参与 NFT 社区空投</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94251a3b6537c861bb6f561623105cbd\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>尽管 NFT 空投可以看做是零撸，不过考虑到之后交易或者领取 NFT 所需要花费的手续费，若撸羊毛的手续费要超过 NFT 羊毛价值，就得不偿失了。</p>\n<p>通常这类消息会在 Twitter、Discord、Telegram 的群里发布，不过国内微信群也会有所涉及，如果你关注 NFT 空投信息的话，不妨多留意一下这些渠道。</p>\n<p><b>评估NFT的方法</b></p>\n<p><b>6.1 评估 NFT 有主观和客观两个维度</b></p>\n<p>有人可能认为他们在 2017 年免费声称的低特性 CryptoPunk 是无价的。然而，像 OpenSea 和 Rarible 这样的 NFT 市场上的收藏家经常交易这些基本的朋克，反过来，不断确保客观的底价自然发展。</p>\n<p>这种波动的价格下限可以客观地告诉我们，一组给定的 NFT 目前至少值这么多钱。</p>\n<p>例如，在撰写本文时，CryptoPunks 的价格下限约为 19 ETH，因此如果您以大约这个价格列出 CryptoPunk，它很有可能会迅速出售，因为许多买家会追踪最实惠的可能性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba2d5dadebd1c97d0f402c4ef155d72\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"210\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>来源：larvalabs.com/cryptopunks</p>\n<p>当谈到客观估值时，您还必须考虑适用的稀有特征（例如带有神秘零件的 Axies 在 Axie Infinity 中如何受到重视），以及主要销售价格是硬编码的项目。</p>\n<p>这里的例子包括类似 EulerBeats 的结合曲线，或者普通 Avastar 最初总是 0.07 ETH，Uncommon Avastar 最初总是 0.14 ETH，等等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/626ae2ad37be198977ec423d09da3c44\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>来源：avastars.io</p>\n<p>还有时间维度是审查的关键。</p>\n<p>换句话说，这个 NFT 在过去的价值是多少？今天它值多少钱，它在未来几年可能值多少钱？它的价值是如何随着时间的推移而迅速或突飞猛进地随着繁荣和萧条而变化的？深入研究这些问题是更好地处理任何 NFT 估值的好方法。</p>\n<p>最后，评估 NFT 有一个分析维度，它将主观性、客观性和时间结合在一起。我的意思是能够同时考虑这些其他维度，然后在滚动的基础上分析和估计 NFT 的保守、中立和激进的估值。这为您提供了一个框架来处理和理解所有“如果”的含义，例如，如果该资产的市场升温，或者降温，或者持平会怎样？</p>\n<p>假设您有一只 CrypoKitties 创始人猫（在创建的前 100 只 CryptoKitties 中），并且您想得出它在明年的表现如何。</p>\n<p>如果未来几个月 NFT 牛市持续，那么您的激进分析很可能是您的 Kitty 可以轻松获得数十个 ETH，而您的保守分析可能是，如果 NFT 熊市，您至少可以获取任何 Founder Cat 底价爆发了，你想卖掉。与此同时，您持有 Kitty 并在其众多可能性的关联中分析其估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becb82cd6a041f59a63fc5a22edf9fea\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>来源：cryptokitties.co/kitty/2</p>\n<p>然而，这只是人们如何理解 NFT 估值的鸟瞰图。</p>\n<p>准确评估 NFT 的最佳方法是根据 NFT 的基本客观要素权衡当前市场状况。它的组成部分是什么？它是如何建造的？它能做什么？</p>\n<p>让我们来看看这些元素中最重要的元素，即下面的增值因素。</p>\n<p><b>6.2 推动 NFT 价值的 7 个特征</b></p>\n<p><b>6.21 链上安全</b></p>\n<p>NFT 的全部意义在于它们是不可变且有保证的数字资产——只要它们的底层区块链基础设施保持不可变和有保证，就是这样！</p>\n<p>因此，以太坊是 NFT 网络的统治者，这在很大程度上要归功于它很容易成为当今运行的最安全的智能合约平台，并且在可预见的未来，这种主导地位有望继续。</p>\n<p>换句话说，随着时间的推移，NFT 被铸造的链有助于并确保其价值。这就是为什么在以太坊上铸造的 NFT 目前比在其他地方铸造的 NFT 更有价值的原因。他们只是更安全。</p>\n<p>链安全的关键问题：</p>\n<p>· 宿主链是否安全？</p>\n<p>· 是否足够去中心化？</p>\n<p><b>6.22 上链</b></p>\n<p>NFT 完全在链上铸造，如 Avastars、Aavegotchis 和 Art Blocks drop，仅依赖于各自的以太坊智能合约而存在。这意味着只要以太坊存在，它们就会存在，这可能需要很长时间。</p>\n<p>另一方面，一些 NFT 项目通过使其 NFT 依赖于外部的链外提供商（如 AWS）来选择简单性和灵活性。这引入了信任的维度，因此您必须希望该项目能够坚持下去并保持其服务器运行。</p>\n<p>否则，你可能会在几年内有效地拥有一个空白的 NFT。</p>\n<p>因此，NFT 越在链上，它的原始价值就越不言自明——它可以证明自己，并且可以随时证明自己。</p>\n<p>链上与链下的关键问题：</p>\n<p>· 这个 NFT 托管在哪里？</p>\n<p>· 这个 NFT 是否完全在链上（意味着它将永远持续到未来）？</p>\n<p><b>6.23 年龄</b></p>\n<p>NFT 也可以获得价值，具体取决于它们的铸造时间。例如，NFT 真正在 2020/2021 年开始升温，所以这个时代之前的 NFT 已经开始承担数字人工制品的地位，即文化变革中最早的物体。</p>\n<p>然而，关于 NFT 的事情还很早，我认为这个年龄因素还没有完全解决。最后，可能是在 2030 年之前铸造的任何 NFT 或具有特殊意义的任何东西。走着瞧。</p>\n<p>与此同时，最早的 NFT 项目已经获得了令人印象深刻的估值（例如 CryptoPunks）。许多收藏家都认为这些 NFT 来自 2017 年，这是媒体的史前时期。</p>\n<p>所以就像葡萄酒一样，永远记住年龄！关于年龄的关键问题：</p>\n<p>· NFT 是什么时候铸造的？</p>\n<p>· 这个 NFT 有什么历史意义吗？</p>\n<p><b>6.24 创作者和社区</b></p>\n<p>如果一个没有追随者也没有创建历史的人在 OpenSea 上投放 NFT 并且没有宣布它，它会出售吗？当然不是没有进一步的努力！</p>\n<p>这就是为什么由主要艺术家或创作者发布的 NFT 赋予它价值的原因。它充满了发行人数字指纹的魔力——就像亲笔签名一样。重要的是，让社区参与会创造需求。</p>\n<p>自然地，创作者越受欢迎，社区越大，NFT 的价值就越大——这种动态基本上适用于任何市场。</p>\n<p>关于创作者和社区的关键问题：</p>\n<p>· 创作者是否在 Twitter 和 Instagram 等社交网站上拥有追随者？</p>\n<p>· 他们经常和粉丝互动吗？</p>\n<p>· 您认为创作者将来可以发展自己的品牌吗？</p>\n<p><b>6.25 稀缺性</b></p>\n<p>在 NFT 生态系统中，我们已经看到创作者将 NFT 发布为 1 of 1s 或多版本，如 1 of 10s、1 of 50s、1 of 100s 等。</p>\n<p>显然，1 of 1 非常稀缺，因此它们在基础层面上比经过多个版本稀释的作品更有价值。然而，这并不意味着多版本没有价值——我们已经看到它们的价格也高达数千美元！</p>\n<p>SuperRare 等平台仅支持 1 个版本中的 1 个，因此如果您购买稀有的 1 个 NFT 之一，您将保证只有一件艺术家正品在流通！</p>\n<p>关于版本稀缺性的关键问题：</p>\n<p>· 铸造了多少件？</p>\n<p>· 艺术家会保持他们的社会契约而不是铸造更多这些吗？</p>\n<p><b>6.26 释放速度</b></p>\n<p>创作者是否在一年的时间内铸造了 1,000 1 of 1 NFT，还是仅铸造了 12 个？</p>\n<p>我的意思是，弄清楚给定类型的 NFT 的生产速度是理解其价值的关键。</p>\n<p>以 0.01 的价格提供无限次 NFT 铸造的项目通常不如从承诺只铸造 25 个 NFT 的艺术家那里购买 NFT 那样诱人。自然，每年只发布几件精选作品的杰出艺术家的售价往往高于每周发布多次作品的同类艺术家。</p>\n<p>然而，也有一些独特的场合，比如 Beeple 如何以近 7000 万美元的价格出售他的整个系列——5000 件，他每天创作 1 件，持续了 13 年多。然而，建立这个估值花了十多年的坚持不懈的努力！</p>\n<p>关于发布速度的关键问题：</p>\n<p>· 这位艺术家以什么速度创作新作品（每天、每周、每月、每年等）？</p>\n<p>· 他们铸造了多少件？</p>\n<p><b>6.27 丰富性（例如音频）</b></p>\n<p>我们开始看到越来越多的带有音频的视觉 NFT。这种动态为用户提供了比普通的旧 NFT 更丰富的艺术体验。谁不喜欢在他们的 NFT 进行奇怪的令人满意的循环时播放音乐？</p>\n<p>考虑到这一点，音频可以提升 NFT 在感官上的附加价值——特别是如果音频是与主要艺术家合作完成的。</p>\n<p>因此，期望通过 NFT 看到视音频融合成为更多的艺术规范。</p>\n<p>音频的关键问题：</p>\n<p>· NFT 有音频吗？</p>\n<p>· 谁为这件作品制作了音频？</p>\n<p><b>6.3 奖励：项目特定的稀有度</b></p>\n<p>一些 NFT 项目，如 CryptoPunks 和 Axie Infinity，它们的 NFT 以各种不同的特征为中心。对于 CryptoPunks 来说，与标准朋克相比，外星人和猿朋克是最有价值的。同样，Mystic Axies 是市场上最稀有（通常也是最有价值）的 Axies。</p>\n<p>其特征越罕见，NFT 就越有可能在 NFT 市场上获得可观的利润。</p>\n<p>因此，如果您看到大型 NFT 销售并且对此感到困惑，请深入了解潜在的特征——它们的稀有性可能会让您更好地了解销售发生的原因！</p>\n<p>所以，在评估 NFT 时，不一定有正确或错误的答案，尽管如果您尝试这样做，肯定会考虑很多动态。</p>\n<p>最好的办法是采取整体方法，在触发任何触发器之前了解项目的所有方面。</p>\n<p>例如，NFT 生态系统刚刚重新发现了在 CryptoPunks 之后发布的 MoonCats 项目——但它在 2017 年之后就消失了。现在数百人已经铸造了 MoonCats 并试图在 OpenSea 上对其进行估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd30ae28226de5474b38d48899806ad\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>事实上，我们都还在想办法如何准确地评估它们，当然还没有正确的答案。我们现在对它们的估值将与 1、3 或 10 年后不同。</p>\n<p>但是应用基本原理：这是在链上吗？这个名气大吗？艺术家有社区吗？是他们的独特之处吗？</p>\n<p>这些是您在购买 NFT 时需要问自己的基本问题。把你对 NFT 的所有了解都投入使用——这就是诀窍。</p>\n<p>你必须从多个角度解决 NFT 的估值问题。但如果可以的话，你就走在了曲线的前面。</p>\n<p><b>如何查询NFT信息？</b></p>\n<p>随着 NFT 走入主流，越来越多的艺术家、项目方都开始加入到 NFT 领域之中。自 2021 年开年以来，最大的 NFT 交易平台 OpenSea 的月度交易量呈爆发式增长，NFT 应用也从以太坊迁移至 BSC、Matic、Flow 等新兴公链，下面将罗列一些 NFT 相关数据网站，以此辅助大家研究 NFT 的市场变化，同时也能避开一些坑。</p>\n<p>NFT 应用列表</p>\n<p>mathdapp.store</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05c99d6f6175468e2498c9fe3a00dad\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DappRadder NFT 应用数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906d6bda310f73e38b79272175a1c64\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NFT 流行应用数据分析</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83f9f29a8fcfabb8359775c272111bf\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>流行 NFT 应用 拥有者数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87273be7d9cdd7b09f7455a367c65f0e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ETH 链上 NFT 数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af5351ff82e5d9478ab3887ac3dce513\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>BSC 链上 NFT 数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49bc85237b261e602118a51935be264f\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Heco 链上 NFT 数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78a109b9a82ea4d32493d5080014298\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NFT 数据排行榜</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35015f1f2c80f5837b7d8fa8f3633f4\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"179\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>分析、跟踪和发现 NFT</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f21ca6dc729aa41592c974ec91ecf8d\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NFT 艺术家作品排行榜</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe0c6e63e738d476b783209512014481\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NFT 资产存储评估</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b44be499352ab8d6fa17e44eda999a2\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Opensea NFT 统计数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee93c9eee6fc5a62fb56936e575b4081\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NiftyGateway NFT 成交数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4e94c2a648fe9fd786d950e67f6a9ed\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NFT 链上数据分析</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c4fd0615e01da6b6d2076b5a11fff8\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>加密艺术销售数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1530394ba69d6093dc622ffe4f3a611\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>ERC1155 数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a28ceec5f34fde7b55c305ac8477bc42\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>WAX NFT 数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/119bab36b14df90c33d321527bc5050d\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DappReview Enjin 应用数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578d52904867b8401ff86b0e6b8022d5\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NFT 代币数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d45333e59443b87f70533d8bf22433f\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Marketplace 子图数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb849881485982f3041af79e77f3623a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>CryptoKitties 子图数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c231707c6d4b7d7e10dab0587669d8\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>CryptoPunk 子图数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3139fde350a27101a7cbe1de2eecaf05\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>OKLink NFT 市场交易数据</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7592e642b046516a5ef589258a36d74\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>这是一篇「希望」全景式解析 NFT 的文章，但我们永远不可能在某一篇文章或报告中，做到真正深入了解 NFT。在这场瞬息万变的数字经济潜力验证的实验中，任何参照物都不再具有穿越时间的力量。但我们仍然可以通过一些系统、笨拙的梳理，去表达当下对 NFT 的理解。这是一个关于美丽新世界的提案，随着人类对数字资产所有权和产权的需求不断上升和发展，我们将亲身见证许多借由 NFT 发生的革命实验，Create it and Enjoy it.</p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一文读懂NFT：全面解析NFT发展简史、价值及未来</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一文读懂NFT：全面解析NFT发展简史、价值及未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-12 15:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xXzCRn4-Fbn8KtsTsFslfw><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>导语\n今年被称为 NFT 的“元年”，Uniswap一双袜子卖16万美元，推特创始人五个单词拍出250万美元，加密艺术家Beeple的数字作品“First 5000 Days”在佳士得单一拍品网上以6900万美元价格成交；这一切都让人觉得不可思议。\n对于大部分普通投资者，或者行业外人士来说，NFT 的故事似乎稍显突兀，NFT 究竟是下一个“美丽新世界”还是泡沫？说实话，市场结果往往是后验的，在事后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xXzCRn4-Fbn8KtsTsFslfw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/224b526b9aaf0e8ede8e85824ee07406","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xXzCRn4-Fbn8KtsTsFslfw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132461050","content_text":"导语\n今年被称为 NFT 的“元年”，Uniswap一双袜子卖16万美元，推特创始人五个单词拍出250万美元，加密艺术家Beeple的数字作品“First 5000 Days”在佳士得单一拍品网上以6900万美元价格成交；这一切都让人觉得不可思议。\n对于大部分普通投资者，或者行业外人士来说，NFT 的故事似乎稍显突兀，NFT 究竟是下一个“美丽新世界”还是泡沫？说实话，市场结果往往是后验的，在事后解释起来我们往往头头是道，却并不那么容易判定这一新兴市场的走向。不过可以断定的是，投入时间去了解 NFT 并不会带给我们多大的损失，而如果有幸在 NFT 成熟时，我们对此市场的运作熟捻于心，投入的时间自然容易获得更好的回报。况且单单 NFT 市场带来的有趣的玩意，也足够作为奖励了。\n如果你对 NFT 感兴趣，希望这篇文章里对 NFT 全面的解析可以帮到你。不过对于本文的长度，我提前道歉。本文旨在提供对非同质化代币的深入概述，主要包括NFT的发展历史、市场发展现状、应用层面、价值与未来等，并附上了若干 NFT 市场的查询工具。这些知识将帮助我们更好的理解、参与 NFT 这一新兴市场。我们希望无论你是一个 NFT 入门新手，或是 NFT 资深玩家，读完都能有所收获。\nNFT 是怎么诞生的？\n当我们理解一个新生事物，必须要首先了解其起源，通过对其源头以及演变过程作充分了解，才能深刻理解新生事物可能蕴含的未来价值基础。因此理解 NFT ，我们也从 NFT 是怎么诞生的说起。NFT 的概念是由加密猫CryptoKitties 的创始人兼 CTO Dieter Shirley 在 2017 年正式提出的。当年，随着 BTC 在短短的 2 个月内从 5000 美金上涨到20000 万美金，在这场声势浩大的加密牛市中，一款加密猫游戏迅速走红。2017 年夏天，ERC20 通证标准与基于 ERC20 的 1C0 尤为火爆，在加密猫推出后，很多用户问到 Dieter 加密猫和 ERC20 如何交互，而实际上加密猫和 ERC20 是无法实现兼容的，因为加密猫是基于另一个通证标准 ERC721的，是非同质化通证，而 ERC20 是同质化通证。为了更好的解释加密猫与 ERC20 的区别，Dieter 想出了一个固定而简单的回答，随后Dieter 就提出了 NFT 的概念，即非同质化通证的概念。于是，随着加密猫的火爆，NFT 的概念迅速走进了大众视野。由此，数字资产不再只是指代加密货币，而是由同质化的加密货币与非同质化的 NFT 代表的加密资产组合而成。虽然 NFT 的正式概念是在 2017 年由Dieter 提出的，但是基于 NFT 的类似概念和应用却是在更早之前就出现了，了解 NFT 的历史演进将更有利于我们了解 NFT 的价值和应用。\n·1993 年：加密交易卡\n关于 NFT 的概念及其前身可追溯至1993 年的加密交易卡（ Crypto Trading Cards）。大致的情况就是，在 1993 年 Hal Finney （第一个收到中本聪比特币的资深密码学专家，比特币先驱）分享了一个有趣的概念，其大意是：\n“我对购买和销售数字现金的想法多了一些思考，我想到了一个展示它的方法。我们在买卖「加密交易卡」。密码学的爱好者会喜欢这些迷人的密码艺术的例子。请注意它完美的组合呈现形式是——单向函数和数字签名的混合，以及随机盲法。这是一件多么值得珍藏和展示给你的朋友和家人的完美作品。”\n这可能是我们可以查询到的最早关于 NFT 的阐述和想法，其逻辑虽然和我们小时候买干脆面凑一整套水浒传系列卡片一样；但是其表达的形式却是依托加密学和数学的呈现形式，然后随机排列组成一个系列的套卡，Hal将其定义为加密卡。\n·2012 年：ColoredCoin （彩色币）\n2012年第一个类似 NFT 的通证 Colored Coin（彩色币）诞生。彩色币由小面额的比特币组成，最小单位为一聪(比特币的最小单位)。它可代表多种资产并具有多样用途，包括财产、优惠券、发行公司股份等。虽然彩色币在设计上仍然存在着很多缺陷，但是彩色币展现出了现实资产上链的可塑性及发展潜力，这奠定了 NFT 的发展基础。\n·2014 年：Counterparty\n彩色币的诞生让很多人意识到了将资产发行到区块链上的巨大潜力。2014年，Robert Dermody，Adam Krellenstein 和 Evan Wagner 创立 Counterparty。这是一个点对点的金融平台，并于比特币区块链之上建立了分布式开源互联网协议。Counterparty 支持资产创建，拥有去中心化交易所、XCP 合约币及许多项目和资产，包括卡牌游戏和 Meme 交易。而真正推动 NFT 的出现的便是在 Counterparty 上创建的「Rare Pepes」——将热门 meme 悲伤蛙做成了NFT 的应用。meme 被翻译为模因，其实就是一种表情包、图片或者一句话、甚至一段视频、动图，可以简单的理解为我们熟知的「梗」。\n\n·2017年 6 月：CryptoPunks\n2017 年，正值以太坊生态开始发力之时，原本两个不在加密货币圈子的开发者机缘巧合之下带着一万多个像素头像来到了这个生态当中，并由此开发出了世界上第一个NFT项目——CryptoPunks。原本是做移动 App 开发的两人 John 和Matt，在 2017 年初制作了一个像素角色生成器，并创造了许多很酷的像素角色头像，当他们在想围绕着这些头像还能进一步做一点什么事的时候，他们关注到了区块链和当时正靠着 ERC20 通证标准逐渐火热的以太坊。于是他们便决定将这些像素头像放到区块链上，让这些本身也十分具有个性的像素头像通过区块链的特性可以得到验证，并让它们可以被他人拥有或者允许被他人转给其他人。\n\n由于当时专门面向 NFT 领域的ERC721 或者 ERC1155通证协议还并未诞生，所以两人通过对 ERC20 的标准进行了适当的修改，最终将这些极具朋克精神的像素头像成功的搬到了以太坊上。\n由此，世界上真正意义上第一个 NFT 项目 CryptoPunks 诞生了。它开创性地将图像作为加密资产带入到了加密货币领域里，在当时各类 Token 满天飞的时候，作为一股清流给了众多从业者新的启发。\n·2017年 10 月：CryptoKitties\n随着创新项目 CryptoPunks 在以太坊上被炒得风生水起，这种非同质化的通证也带来了新的思潮。Dapper Labs团队受到 CryptoPunks 的启发，推出了专门面向构建非同质化通证的 ERC721 通证标准，并且随后基于 ERC721，Dapper Labs 团队推出了一款叫做 CryptoKitties 的加密猫游戏，让每一只数字猫都体现得独一无二，其价值不可复制「稀缺才能让价值最大化」。加密猫这样在价值塑造的呈现方式上面的创新，使得 CryptoKitties 迅速走红，并成为市场的主流，于是 NFT 开始大行其道。\n\n·2018-2019 回归建设\n2018年和2019年，NFT生态实现了大规模增长，此时这个空间里有100多个项目，而且还有更多的项目正在进行中。在 OpenSea 和 SuperRare 引领下，NFT 市场正在蓬勃发展。虽然与其他加密货币市场相比，当时的交易量还很小，但它们以快速的步伐增长，并取得了长足的进步。随着像 Metamask 一样的 Web3钱包不断改进，加入NFT生态变得更加容易。现在有一些网站，比如 nonfungible.com 和 nftcryptonews.com，它们深入探讨了 NFT 的市场指标、游戏指南，并提供有关该领域的标准信息。这张来自 The Block 的图片很好地说明了当前的 NFT 生态。\n\n·2020 年，爆发\n疫情之后，英美在内的各国政府选择了发放货币刺激经济的手段。短期之内，传统的投资方案失去了吸引力，更多人在风险投资上变得大胆，进而将目光投向看似蓝海的领域，FLOW 公链上线、NFT 与 DeFi 的结合实现了 Gamefi — NFT 迎来了它的春天。\n数字艺术家 Beeple 从 2007 年开始每天作图一张，最终把 5000 张图片拼接成一个 316 MB的 JPG 文件，并将其作为 NFT 出售。这个耗时 14 年创作的作品《Everydays: The First 5000 Days》，最终以 6934 万美元的价格在英国著名拍卖平台佳士得上卖出。\nBeeple 创纪录拍卖后，Zion Lateef Williamson、村上隆、Snoop Dogg、Eminem、Twitter CEO、Edward Joseph Snowden、Paris Hilton、姚明等各界明星、艺术家纷纷通过各种 NFT 平台发布了 NFT，再一次将 NFT 推向大众视野。\n\n·2021年，GameFi\n年中，NFT 游戏 Axie Infinity 的销售暴涨，据 CryptoSlam 数据显示，截止8月7日，NFT 游戏项目 Axie Infinity 累计交易量突破 10 亿美元，在 NFT 市场中按成交量计算位列首位。Axie Infinity 的迅速上涨带动整个 NFT 市场板块的快速发展。\n\nNFT市场发展现状\n从2021年2月开始， NFT开始爆炸式增长，每周交易量超过200万美元，截至到5月，在不到三个月的时间里，大型 NFT 项目的总市值增长高达2000%，热度甚至超过DeFi，从下面一组数据可见一斑：\n2.1 Google搜索量在2021年呈爆发式增长。\n根据Google Trends显示，关键词“NFT \"和 “Non-Fungible Token”全球的搜索量在2021年剧增，这也意味着NFT生态系统的关注度在不断攀升。这一部分转化成供需，继续扩宽NFT的规模。\n\n2.2 2020年NFT交易人数及交易量同比增幅显著\n根据 NonFungible给出的多方宏观指标来分析近两年NFT市场走势，首先，“活跃钱包”定义 的是NFT智能合约的数量，在这里，同一个人可以同时拥有多个钱包；其次，“买家” 定义为在一年内至少购买过一次NFT的钱包数量，“卖家”定义为在一年内至少出售过 一次NFT的钱包数量；最后，“美金交易额”表示的是NFT的总交易量。\n\n从市场供需格局上来看：\n2020年买家数量同比增长66.94%，卖家数量同比增长24.7%, 需求增速远大于供给增速，此供需格局有望吸引更多人进入市场，为NFT市场持续回暖注入强心剂。2020年活跃钱包数量较2019年增长97.09%，美金交易额涨幅则高达299%, 主要系更多的NFT项目进入市场，拉动交易量和交易金额双重增长；\n顺应此逻辑，若未来更多合适的新NFT项目进入市场，交易量/额也会相继增长，NFT市场繁荣态势也有望保持稳定或将进一步高企。总体来看，利好的市场供需格局叠加未来更多项目驻入市场带动资金的流入，NFT发展前景可期。\n2.3 总交易量和交易平台情况\n当前已逐步形成 NFT 的交易市场，而交易量主要集中在头部项目和头部平台，NBATopShot、CryptoPunks 等项目占据了绝大部分的 NFT 交易量，而 OpenSea 和 Nifty Gateway在各自的市场领域处于绝对领先。这种情况在数字艺术作品 NFT 中更为明显，头部艺术品和艺术家占据了绝大部分的成交额，更多的作品 NFT 则是低价售卖且无人问津。\n\nNFT生态及版块分类\n3.1NFT生态分类\n从功能属性上，NFT 生态应用可分为四层：基础设施底层、项目创作层、交易流通层、衍生应用层。\n\n目前 NFT 项目主要集中在数字收藏品、游戏资产和虚拟世界三个领域：\n数字收藏品往往是具有特定的文化印记和艺术美感的多媒体内容，如 NBA Top Shot 是 NBA 球星的短视频视频剪辑收藏品 NFT；游戏资产则更强调用途，如区块链卡牌游戏 Gods Unchained的卡牌 NFT 可以用到实际的对战中；\n虚拟世界一般拍卖其中的地块和特殊物品，如Decentraland 中的地块 NFT，用户拥有该 NFT 就可以建设改造相应的虚拟土地。除此之外，还有形形色色 NFT 项目，他们往往都具备稀缺性、属于某些文化圈子、或是有着相应的用途。\n在交易流通层：以 OpenSea 为首的综合性交易平台，为用户提供了稳定且方便的多品类，NFT 资产交易体验。OpenSea 支持交易多个项目平台的 NFT 资产交易，被称为“NFT 的亚马逊”，并且用户可在平台内上传数据内容免费铸造 NFT。\n而以 Nifty Gateway 为首的数字艺术交易平台，专注于服务艺术家与艺术品爱好者，业务重点在于通过NFT 与数字艺术的结合，解决传统数字艺术作品的缺少交易实体的痛点， 带来全新的数字艺术交易模式。\n3.2 板块细分\n从上述概念生态就可以看出，从涉及产品类别可以分为以下几个赛道：Game-NFT 、Art-NFT、FI-NFT、和IP-NFT，具体如下：\nNFT项目汇总项目类别项目艺术品OpenSea、Rarible、AsyIc Art、 Wrapped Cryptopunks 、 LinkArt、 Superare、 joy、Cryptograph、MakersPlace、KnownOrigin游戏Enjin、chiliz、Sorare、CryptoKitties、League of Kingdoms域名Ethereum Name service、Unstoppable Domanins保险Yinsure.finance虚拟世界Decentraland、The Sandbox、Somnium Space、Cryptovoxels、NeoWorld\nNFT的发展前景与展望\nLayer2：去中心化最核心的实施方式便是资产上链，资产储存在链上是实现去信任公平的前提，NFT同样如此。NFT的多样性将一系列复杂权益带到了加密世界中，例如知识产权、个人行为数据等等，这些资产需要在链上可见，可流转，可与区块链内部生态系统内的不同类型协议进行交互。\nLayer2的价值正是此处显现出来，首先，其费用更低效率更高，能够缓解NFT的复杂性带给公链性能的冲击和挑战；其次，虽然NFT功能的理想化实现对底层基础要求非常高，在更远的将来可能出现技术的突破也许会将NFT的应用场景带入新的高度，但在可见的未来，以太坊依然会是NFT的主要价值密集区，NFT生态也一定会与DeFi生态产生更多的交互，那么Layer2和侧链相对于其他独立公链就占据了得天独厚的优势。\n去中心化存储：目前NFT的存储还存在着不少问题，大多数NFT交易市场都尚未完全脱离中心化。虽然NFT本身存于链上，但由于链上无法存储大文件，与NFT对应的相关图片、视频等文件依然采取链下存储的方式，而只是将这些文件的Hash值数据存储在NFT代币元数据之中。这对于NFT持有者来说存在极大隐患，NFT的生杀大全其实并不掌握于持有者手中，这是相当荒谬的。所以去中心化存储变成了大势所趋，目前Arweave、IPFS等去中心化存储系统与NFT的联动愈发紧密，可以持续关注未来发展。\n除此之外，我们认为还有若干未来NFT可能具备潜力的发展方向：\n1、元宇宙+社会实验\n真正意义上的元宇宙何时才能落地应用还是未知数，但可以想象的一个非常有趣且可实施性较强的落地是——低成本社会实验。一些研究和实验在真实世界需要极高的世界、资本和社会成本，元宇宙为这类需求提供了非常好的替代选择，具体场景可以假设一方出于研究和学术需要出资设立虚拟实验项目，承接方负责按照实验需求的逻辑搭建特定虚拟世界并招募志愿者，志愿者进行虚拟实验并在成功完成后获得酬劳。一些人会将目前的区块链经济生态看做一场社会实验，但这个“实验”明显缺乏独立性且无法控制变量。元宇宙中的社会实验是与外界隔绝的、可回档、可重复的。\n2、预言机与聚合器\n目前NFT与DeFi、CeFi的交互形式非常有限，这就需要新的预言机和聚合协议将三者联动起来。目前NFT生态多链发展的趋势愈加明显，跨链桥的安全问题、效率问题和中心化问题都是困扰NFT生态间交互的障碍，为了提升效率和实效性，未来与NFT相关的预言机一定会大量出现。同样，NFT生态中，类似DeFi的1inch和yEarn等关乎用户交易费用和投资收益的聚合器也将大批出现。\n3、社交与展示\nNFT的持有者和价值信仰者需要一个“Show off”的舞台，这类社交聚集地对稳固NFT价值共识和吸引新鲜血液加入都非常有效。将NFT从重投机转向自我实现的有效方式便是为价值鼓吹者和价值信仰者提供表达和聆听的渠道。行业内的先行者和KOL需要一个属于NFT的“小红书”来向他人展示自己的爱好和格调。\n如何获得NFT?\n首先拆解 NFT，可以得到最主要的特征：\n· 依赖于区块链。NFT 一定是在区块链上发行的。\n· 需要使用某种协议，即便是自行创建的协议。\n· NFT 有可知的发行者，尽管有大量的诈骗者试图蒙骗，但通过地址可以比对\n· NFT 不一定具有稀缺性。NFT 的发行量理论上是可以无上限的，当然在当前的实践中，常常会设定数量上限。\n· NFT 可以如同质化代币一样，进行交易流转，除非发行合约增加了限制。\n因此，想要得到 NFT，可以有如下的方式：\n· 根据已有或自创的 NFT 协议，自己创造 NFT，下文我们会提到。\n· 参与 NFT 发行方进行的一级市场发行活动，用法币或者加密货币购买，得到 NFT。\n· 通过OpenSea、Rarible、AtomicMarket 等 NFT 二级交易市场，从其他 NFT 持有者手中购买 NFT。\n· 参与 NFT 发行方团队的社区营销活动，获得 NFT 空投。\n这四种方式，我们分别介绍一下。\n（1）自己创建 NFT\n\n人人都可以创建 NFT，这带来了灵活性，当然也意味着，市场上 NFT 的质量良莠不齐，大量的 NFT 并不具有收藏或交易价值，这是参与 NFT 需要注意的。\nNFT 交易市场通常也提供了工具或教程，指引用户创建自己的 NFT，例如 Rarible（支持 ERC1155 协议）、OpenSea、MintBase 等。\n\n以最常见的 NFT 收藏类为例，可以将 NFT 的创建过程分为如下几个步骤：\n· 前期选型阶段，选择 NFT 所在的区块链、采用的协议和交易的市场，以及NFT 的主题、拟发行数量、面向人群和上线时候的玩法（众筹、免费发放、或者是作为挖矿奖励发放）。NFT 发行也是一次产品创造的过程。\n· 根据 NFT 主题和面向人群，设计好相应的图片、文案、甚至多媒体素材。对收藏类 NFT 而言，更要着重考虑的是不同类别系列、以及对应收藏品的稀缺程度的设计和进化的玩法（普通、稀缺、传奇、史诗等）。如果涉及到游戏内 NFT 资产，也需要考虑好 NFT 不同的种类，如何在游戏内应用。这一步最为繁琐。\n· 可以使用在线工具创建 NFT，提交图片、文案、稀缺度、自定义属性、价格等信息，然后点击提交之后，会将 NFT 合约部署至区块链上。\n· 查看和测试自己的 NFT 作品，是否可以交易、转账，部分网站采取审核制的话，还需要额外进行 NFT 提交操作。\n· 最后，可以在 NFT 交易平台中创建 NFT 商店，展示和出售自己创建的 NFT。\n根据不同 NFT 或者创建工具的不同，会多少有一些区别，不过大致的过程如上所示。正如前文所说，Rarible（支持 ERC1155 协议）、OpenSea、MintBase 等交易所，以及 WAX 区块链上的 AtomicHub 等交易平台也都有提供各自的创建工具，感兴趣的读者可以自行探索。\n（2）参与 NFT 的一级市场发行\n\n许多 NFT 团队会采取限时限量的方式，进行 NFT 的首次发行，称之为 NFT 一级市场发行。\nNFT 打新通常接收法币或者加密货币作为支付方式，参与者可以得到对应的 NFT 或者一组 NFT，然后进行拆包，如同小时候玩的小浣熊收藏卡，撕开之后可以获得不同的卡，增加了玩盲盒的趣味。\n值得提醒的是，NFT 一级市场参与是高风险的活动。\n尽管许多 NFT 团队会采取限量限时的方式，鼓动用户参与其中，制造 FOMO，且一级市场的参与者希望可以买入后转手在二级市场卖出的方式来赚到差价。但是，NFT 本身设计机制不够有吸引力、发行方的影响力不大、受众有限，都会影响到二级市场的参与深度和未来预期，导致一级市场参与者所持有的 NFT 卖不出去，造成损失。\n如同任何新兴市场一样，NFT 也是充满了高风险的交易类别，各位读者需要自行分辨。\n（3）从 NFT 交易市场上获得 NFT\n第三种获得 NFT 的方式，是从 NFT 交易市场上购买。以太坊社区中常用的 NFT 交易市场为 Rarible、OpenSea、SuperRare、Collectables 等，WAX 区块链上常见的交易市场为 AtomicMarket、Myth.Market 等交易市场。\n如果你使用过任何一个电商网站，就能熟悉 NFT 如何交易，因为 NFT 交易市场上的操作，跟网上购物没什么大区别。\n\n首先，在市场上浏览选择喜欢的 NFT，然后点击查看细节详情，如果确认无误之后，可以点击购买。\n\n这里需要再啰嗦一句，由于 NFT 人人都可以创建，且多数收藏类 NFT 仅提供了图片的方式，加上以太坊的地址容易混淆，所以参与 NFT 交易时候一定睁大眼睛仔细分辨。曾经有人做过实验，做了一款使用同样参数、同样图片的 NFT 上架到 NFT 交易平台，有多位用户中招。\n尽管 NFT 交易平台有可能会对此进行限制，但是还是要根据 NFT 项目团队官方公布的地址信息为准，避免买到了李鬼。\n（4）参与 NFT 社区空投\n\n尽管 NFT 空投可以看做是零撸，不过考虑到之后交易或者领取 NFT 所需要花费的手续费，若撸羊毛的手续费要超过 NFT 羊毛价值，就得不偿失了。\n通常这类消息会在 Twitter、Discord、Telegram 的群里发布，不过国内微信群也会有所涉及，如果你关注 NFT 空投信息的话，不妨多留意一下这些渠道。\n评估NFT的方法\n6.1 评估 NFT 有主观和客观两个维度\n有人可能认为他们在 2017 年免费声称的低特性 CryptoPunk 是无价的。然而，像 OpenSea 和 Rarible 这样的 NFT 市场上的收藏家经常交易这些基本的朋克，反过来，不断确保客观的底价自然发展。\n这种波动的价格下限可以客观地告诉我们，一组给定的 NFT 目前至少值这么多钱。\n例如，在撰写本文时，CryptoPunks 的价格下限约为 19 ETH，因此如果您以大约这个价格列出 CryptoPunk，它很有可能会迅速出售，因为许多买家会追踪最实惠的可能性。\n\n来源：larvalabs.com/cryptopunks\n当谈到客观估值时，您还必须考虑适用的稀有特征（例如带有神秘零件的 Axies 在 Axie Infinity 中如何受到重视），以及主要销售价格是硬编码的项目。\n这里的例子包括类似 EulerBeats 的结合曲线，或者普通 Avastar 最初总是 0.07 ETH，Uncommon Avastar 最初总是 0.14 ETH，等等。\n\n来源：avastars.io\n还有时间维度是审查的关键。\n换句话说，这个 NFT 在过去的价值是多少？今天它值多少钱，它在未来几年可能值多少钱？它的价值是如何随着时间的推移而迅速或突飞猛进地随着繁荣和萧条而变化的？深入研究这些问题是更好地处理任何 NFT 估值的好方法。\n最后，评估 NFT 有一个分析维度，它将主观性、客观性和时间结合在一起。我的意思是能够同时考虑这些其他维度，然后在滚动的基础上分析和估计 NFT 的保守、中立和激进的估值。这为您提供了一个框架来处理和理解所有“如果”的含义，例如，如果该资产的市场升温，或者降温，或者持平会怎样？\n假设您有一只 CrypoKitties 创始人猫（在创建的前 100 只 CryptoKitties 中），并且您想得出它在明年的表现如何。\n如果未来几个月 NFT 牛市持续，那么您的激进分析很可能是您的 Kitty 可以轻松获得数十个 ETH，而您的保守分析可能是，如果 NFT 熊市，您至少可以获取任何 Founder Cat 底价爆发了，你想卖掉。与此同时，您持有 Kitty 并在其众多可能性的关联中分析其估值。\n\n来源：cryptokitties.co/kitty/2\n然而，这只是人们如何理解 NFT 估值的鸟瞰图。\n准确评估 NFT 的最佳方法是根据 NFT 的基本客观要素权衡当前市场状况。它的组成部分是什么？它是如何建造的？它能做什么？\n让我们来看看这些元素中最重要的元素，即下面的增值因素。\n6.2 推动 NFT 价值的 7 个特征\n6.21 链上安全\nNFT 的全部意义在于它们是不可变且有保证的数字资产——只要它们的底层区块链基础设施保持不可变和有保证，就是这样！\n因此，以太坊是 NFT 网络的统治者，这在很大程度上要归功于它很容易成为当今运行的最安全的智能合约平台，并且在可预见的未来，这种主导地位有望继续。\n换句话说，随着时间的推移，NFT 被铸造的链有助于并确保其价值。这就是为什么在以太坊上铸造的 NFT 目前比在其他地方铸造的 NFT 更有价值的原因。他们只是更安全。\n链安全的关键问题：\n· 宿主链是否安全？\n· 是否足够去中心化？\n6.22 上链\nNFT 完全在链上铸造，如 Avastars、Aavegotchis 和 Art Blocks drop，仅依赖于各自的以太坊智能合约而存在。这意味着只要以太坊存在，它们就会存在，这可能需要很长时间。\n另一方面，一些 NFT 项目通过使其 NFT 依赖于外部的链外提供商（如 AWS）来选择简单性和灵活性。这引入了信任的维度，因此您必须希望该项目能够坚持下去并保持其服务器运行。\n否则，你可能会在几年内有效地拥有一个空白的 NFT。\n因此，NFT 越在链上，它的原始价值就越不言自明——它可以证明自己，并且可以随时证明自己。\n链上与链下的关键问题：\n· 这个 NFT 托管在哪里？\n· 这个 NFT 是否完全在链上（意味着它将永远持续到未来）？\n6.23 年龄\nNFT 也可以获得价值，具体取决于它们的铸造时间。例如，NFT 真正在 2020/2021 年开始升温，所以这个时代之前的 NFT 已经开始承担数字人工制品的地位，即文化变革中最早的物体。\n然而，关于 NFT 的事情还很早，我认为这个年龄因素还没有完全解决。最后，可能是在 2030 年之前铸造的任何 NFT 或具有特殊意义的任何东西。走着瞧。\n与此同时，最早的 NFT 项目已经获得了令人印象深刻的估值（例如 CryptoPunks）。许多收藏家都认为这些 NFT 来自 2017 年，这是媒体的史前时期。\n所以就像葡萄酒一样，永远记住年龄！关于年龄的关键问题：\n· NFT 是什么时候铸造的？\n· 这个 NFT 有什么历史意义吗？\n6.24 创作者和社区\n如果一个没有追随者也没有创建历史的人在 OpenSea 上投放 NFT 并且没有宣布它，它会出售吗？当然不是没有进一步的努力！\n这就是为什么由主要艺术家或创作者发布的 NFT 赋予它价值的原因。它充满了发行人数字指纹的魔力——就像亲笔签名一样。重要的是，让社区参与会创造需求。\n自然地，创作者越受欢迎，社区越大，NFT 的价值就越大——这种动态基本上适用于任何市场。\n关于创作者和社区的关键问题：\n· 创作者是否在 Twitter 和 Instagram 等社交网站上拥有追随者？\n· 他们经常和粉丝互动吗？\n· 您认为创作者将来可以发展自己的品牌吗？\n6.25 稀缺性\n在 NFT 生态系统中，我们已经看到创作者将 NFT 发布为 1 of 1s 或多版本，如 1 of 10s、1 of 50s、1 of 100s 等。\n显然，1 of 1 非常稀缺，因此它们在基础层面上比经过多个版本稀释的作品更有价值。然而，这并不意味着多版本没有价值——我们已经看到它们的价格也高达数千美元！\nSuperRare 等平台仅支持 1 个版本中的 1 个，因此如果您购买稀有的 1 个 NFT 之一，您将保证只有一件艺术家正品在流通！\n关于版本稀缺性的关键问题：\n· 铸造了多少件？\n· 艺术家会保持他们的社会契约而不是铸造更多这些吗？\n6.26 释放速度\n创作者是否在一年的时间内铸造了 1,000 1 of 1 NFT，还是仅铸造了 12 个？\n我的意思是，弄清楚给定类型的 NFT 的生产速度是理解其价值的关键。\n以 0.01 的价格提供无限次 NFT 铸造的项目通常不如从承诺只铸造 25 个 NFT 的艺术家那里购买 NFT 那样诱人。自然，每年只发布几件精选作品的杰出艺术家的售价往往高于每周发布多次作品的同类艺术家。\n然而，也有一些独特的场合，比如 Beeple 如何以近 7000 万美元的价格出售他的整个系列——5000 件，他每天创作 1 件，持续了 13 年多。然而，建立这个估值花了十多年的坚持不懈的努力！\n关于发布速度的关键问题：\n· 这位艺术家以什么速度创作新作品（每天、每周、每月、每年等）？\n· 他们铸造了多少件？\n6.27 丰富性（例如音频）\n我们开始看到越来越多的带有音频的视觉 NFT。这种动态为用户提供了比普通的旧 NFT 更丰富的艺术体验。谁不喜欢在他们的 NFT 进行奇怪的令人满意的循环时播放音乐？\n考虑到这一点，音频可以提升 NFT 在感官上的附加价值——特别是如果音频是与主要艺术家合作完成的。\n因此，期望通过 NFT 看到视音频融合成为更多的艺术规范。\n音频的关键问题：\n· NFT 有音频吗？\n· 谁为这件作品制作了音频？\n6.3 奖励：项目特定的稀有度\n一些 NFT 项目，如 CryptoPunks 和 Axie Infinity，它们的 NFT 以各种不同的特征为中心。对于 CryptoPunks 来说，与标准朋克相比，外星人和猿朋克是最有价值的。同样，Mystic Axies 是市场上最稀有（通常也是最有价值）的 Axies。\n其特征越罕见，NFT 就越有可能在 NFT 市场上获得可观的利润。\n因此，如果您看到大型 NFT 销售并且对此感到困惑，请深入了解潜在的特征——它们的稀有性可能会让您更好地了解销售发生的原因！\n所以，在评估 NFT 时，不一定有正确或错误的答案，尽管如果您尝试这样做，肯定会考虑很多动态。\n最好的办法是采取整体方法，在触发任何触发器之前了解项目的所有方面。\n例如，NFT 生态系统刚刚重新发现了在 CryptoPunks 之后发布的 MoonCats 项目——但它在 2017 年之后就消失了。现在数百人已经铸造了 MoonCats 并试图在 OpenSea 上对其进行估值。\n\n事实上，我们都还在想办法如何准确地评估它们，当然还没有正确的答案。我们现在对它们的估值将与 1、3 或 10 年后不同。\n但是应用基本原理：这是在链上吗？这个名气大吗？艺术家有社区吗？是他们的独特之处吗？\n这些是您在购买 NFT 时需要问自己的基本问题。把你对 NFT 的所有了解都投入使用——这就是诀窍。\n你必须从多个角度解决 NFT 的估值问题。但如果可以的话，你就走在了曲线的前面。\n如何查询NFT信息？\n随着 NFT 走入主流，越来越多的艺术家、项目方都开始加入到 NFT 领域之中。自 2021 年开年以来，最大的 NFT 交易平台 OpenSea 的月度交易量呈爆发式增长，NFT 应用也从以太坊迁移至 BSC、Matic、Flow 等新兴公链，下面将罗列一些 NFT 相关数据网站，以此辅助大家研究 NFT 的市场变化，同时也能避开一些坑。\nNFT 应用列表\nmathdapp.store\n\nDappRadder NFT 应用数据\n\nNFT 流行应用数据分析\n\n流行 NFT 应用 拥有者数据\n\nETH 链上 NFT 数据\n\nBSC 链上 NFT 数据\n\nHeco 链上 NFT 数据\n\nNFT 数据排行榜\n\n分析、跟踪和发现 NFT\n\nNFT 艺术家作品排行榜\n\nNFT 资产存储评估\n\nOpensea NFT 统计数据\n\nNiftyGateway NFT 成交数据\n\nNFT 链上数据分析\n\n加密艺术销售数据\n\nERC1155 数据\n\nWAX NFT 数据\n\nDappReview Enjin 应用数据\n\nNFT 代币数据\n\nMarketplace 子图数据\n\nCryptoKitties 子图数据\n\nCryptoPunk 子图数据\n\nOKLink NFT 市场交易数据\n\n结语\n这是一篇「希望」全景式解析 NFT 的文章，但我们永远不可能在某一篇文章或报告中，做到真正深入了解 NFT。在这场瞬息万变的数字经济潜力验证的实验中，任何参照物都不再具有穿越时间的力量。但我们仍然可以通过一些系统、笨拙的梳理，去表达当下对 NFT 的理解。这是一个关于美丽新世界的提案，随着人类对数字资产所有权和产权的需求不断上升和发展，我们将亲身见证许多借由 NFT 发生的革命实验，Create it and Enjoy it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817506645,"gmtCreate":1630973125687,"gmtModify":1630973125687,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"厌恶wood， 天天鼓吹不靠谱泡沐","listText":"厌恶wood， 天天鼓吹不靠谱泡沐","text":"厌恶wood， 天天鼓吹不靠谱泡沐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817506645","repostId":"1101678797","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839766262,"gmtCreate":1629182819256,"gmtModify":1629182819256,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","listText":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","text":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839766262","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>\n <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley noted that</p>\n<blockquote>\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart 1</p>\n<p>This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p>\n<p>The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p>\n<p><b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p>\n<p>The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p>\n<p>Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p>\n<p>Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 3</p>\n<p>Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p>\n<p><b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p>\n<p>Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p>\n<p>Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p>\n<p>Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p>\n<p><b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p>\n<p>Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p>\n<p>This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p>\n<p>TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p>\n<p>However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p>\n<p>Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p>\n<p>Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p>\n<p>Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 6</p>\n<p>Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 7</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>\n <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>\n <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 11:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":173636961,"gmtCreate":1626656728353,"gmtModify":1626656728353,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"匹夫无罪 怀璧有罪， 台积电就是美国砧板上的肉","listText":"匹夫无罪 怀璧有罪， 台积电就是美国砧板上的肉","text":"匹夫无罪 怀璧有罪， 台积电就是美国砧板上的肉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173636961","repostId":"2152283687","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2152283687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626631712,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2152283687?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 02:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国工程师去了台积电总部！刘德音放出猛料，3nm还能保住吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152283687","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"7月15日，台积电发布了第二季度财报，并就此召开了在线法说会。台积电有分析称，这是因为台积电的盈利能力下降了，所以投资者才会兴趣大减。会上，台积电董事长刘德音放出了两则猛料。其一是100多名美国工程师，带着家属去了台积电总部，将接受为期12到18个月的培训。这是台积电最先进的技术，到时候美国工程师可能又要去总部学习，叫投资者如何不担心？此前，南京28nm工厂扩产计划被叫停。","content":"<html><body><article><p>7月15日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>发布了第二季度财报，并就此召开了在线法说会。财报显示：台积电当季营收为3721.45亿元新台币（约861.91亿元），同比增长19.8%，超出市场预期；<span>净利润</span>为1343.59亿元新台币（约311.18亿元），同比增长11.2%，比预期利润少了1.31%。换成一般的公司，净利润略低于预期，而营收创纪录，仍属于重大利好。但台积电等来的却是，发布财报当天，市值蒸发355亿美元（约2300亿元）。</p><p>台积电</p><p>有分析称，这是因为台积电的盈利能力下降了，所以投资者才会兴趣大减。这种说法其实挺勉强的，毕竟该公司的毛利率仅仅下滑了0.5%，其中又包含了<span>汇率</span>不利和插单生产车用芯片的因素。尤其是后者，台积电总裁魏哲家称“上半年的车用MCU产量，比去年同期提升了30%”。<strong>这30%靠的是“super hot run”（超级急件），也就是放着高利润的消费电子芯片订单不生产，优先为车企服务。</strong></p><p>张忠谋</p><p>既然毛利率下滑，不代表台积电盈利能力下降，那么财报呈现的便只剩利好。如此一来，股票被抛售的根源，自然指向了在线法说会。会上，台积电董事长刘德音放出了两则猛料。<strong>其一是100多名美国工程师，带着家属去了台积电总部，将接受为期</strong><strong>12到18个月的</strong><strong>培训。</strong>而此前传出的消息是，创始人张忠谋吐槽美国员工上班不积极，台积电开出三倍薪资，调本土工程师去美国。</p><p>刘德音（图右）</p><p>在当时，人们想到的是刘德音在答应建厂时，说的那句“台积电会把核心技术留在老家”。可是现在，给人的感觉却是“教哪些东西，哪些东西保密，未必由台积电决定”。尤其5月17日，路透社爆料：<strong>台积电感受到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>跑到德州建3nm工厂的压力，正计划在亚利桑那州建设3nm乃至2nm的晶圆代工厂。</strong>这是台积电最先进的技术，到时候美国工程师可能又要去总部学习，叫投资者如何不担心？</p><p>三星</p><p>倘若台积电的坦诚，能够换来同等的诚意，这件事也算是塞翁失马。遗憾的是，建厂前许诺的蜜月期，大概率是一张口头支票。台积电出发前，得到的信息是“提振美国半导体”，即过去帮忙。结果6月8日，自己就被列入了对方的“安全威胁名单”。不仅如此，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>CEO帕特·基尔辛格还在7月7日，给出了一条这样的建议：<strong>540亿美元的</strong><strong>半导体扶持资金，应该用在税收总部、工厂、专利都在美国的公司。</strong></p><p>基尔辛格</p><p>当初富士康赴美建厂的时候，好歹获得了一句“世界第八大奇迹”的称赞。如果后续招人顺利的话，未必拿不到被许诺的补贴。相形之下，台积电的建厂体验，差的不是一点半点。<strong>要知道，</strong><strong>台积电</strong><strong>在</strong><strong>亚利桑那州</strong><strong>的工厂，</strong><strong>聘请</strong><strong>的</strong><strong>人力资源主管Benjamin Miller</strong><strong>（</strong><strong>本杰明·米勒</strong><strong>），在英特尔工作了25年时间。</strong>与其说这是挖人，不如说是合作。结果八字还没一撇，英特尔竟然直接摊牌：自己其实连补贴都不想给台积电。</p><p>英特尔</p><p>既然处境如此尴尬，台积电肯定也要另做打算，争取保证自己的灵活性。<strong>这就不得不提到，刘德音的第二则猛料“台积电的布局，有客户需求与生产成本等诸多考量，目前谈论‘是否会在日本大量制造’，仍然太早”。</strong>台积电追求自主的主要手段，就是在南京、日本和德国建厂。此前，南京28nm工厂扩产计划被叫停。现在刘德音又亲口确认，台积电正纠结产出的问题，不一定会在日本建厂。那么剩下的，就只有德国。</p><p>格罗方德</p><p>可是基尔辛格已经在早前表态，英特尔有去欧洲建厂的相关计划。再结合台积电保护自有技术过程中，所表现出来的被动，以及基尔辛格绝对算不上友好的态度，德国未必是一个好选择。就在7月16日，科创板日报还曝出“英特尔打算收购格罗方德”的消息。<strong>格罗方德是全球第四大晶圆代工厂，技术停留在10nm工艺以上，对英特尔的主要价值是客户。</strong>台积电答应建厂之前，英特尔也没说自己要代工。如今却加速回归，恐怕是来者不善，台积电还能去哪？（李双喜）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国工程师去了台积电总部！刘德音放出猛料，3nm还能保住吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 02:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107190221137c21eb53&s=b><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月15日，台积电发布了第二季度财报，并就此召开了在线法说会。财报显示：台积电当季营收为3721.45亿元新台币（约861.91亿元），同比增长19.8%，超出市场预期；净利润为1343.59亿元新台币（约311.18亿元），同比增长11.2%，比预期利润少了1.31%。换成一般的公司，净利润略低于预期，而营收创纪录，仍属于重大利好。但台积电等来的却是，发布财报当天，市值蒸发355亿美元（约...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107190221137c21eb53&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","TSM":"台积电","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107190221137c21eb53&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2152283687","content_text":"7月15日，台积电发布了第二季度财报，并就此召开了在线法说会。财报显示：台积电当季营收为3721.45亿元新台币（约861.91亿元），同比增长19.8%，超出市场预期；净利润为1343.59亿元新台币（约311.18亿元），同比增长11.2%，比预期利润少了1.31%。换成一般的公司，净利润略低于预期，而营收创纪录，仍属于重大利好。但台积电等来的却是，发布财报当天，市值蒸发355亿美元（约2300亿元）。台积电有分析称，这是因为台积电的盈利能力下降了，所以投资者才会兴趣大减。这种说法其实挺勉强的，毕竟该公司的毛利率仅仅下滑了0.5%，其中又包含了汇率不利和插单生产车用芯片的因素。尤其是后者，台积电总裁魏哲家称“上半年的车用MCU产量，比去年同期提升了30%”。这30%靠的是“super hot run”（超级急件），也就是放着高利润的消费电子芯片订单不生产，优先为车企服务。张忠谋既然毛利率下滑，不代表台积电盈利能力下降，那么财报呈现的便只剩利好。如此一来，股票被抛售的根源，自然指向了在线法说会。会上，台积电董事长刘德音放出了两则猛料。其一是100多名美国工程师，带着家属去了台积电总部，将接受为期12到18个月的培训。而此前传出的消息是，创始人张忠谋吐槽美国员工上班不积极，台积电开出三倍薪资，调本土工程师去美国。刘德音（图右）在当时，人们想到的是刘德音在答应建厂时，说的那句“台积电会把核心技术留在老家”。可是现在，给人的感觉却是“教哪些东西，哪些东西保密，未必由台积电决定”。尤其5月17日，路透社爆料：台积电感受到三星跑到德州建3nm工厂的压力，正计划在亚利桑那州建设3nm乃至2nm的晶圆代工厂。这是台积电最先进的技术，到时候美国工程师可能又要去总部学习，叫投资者如何不担心？三星倘若台积电的坦诚，能够换来同等的诚意，这件事也算是塞翁失马。遗憾的是，建厂前许诺的蜜月期，大概率是一张口头支票。台积电出发前，得到的信息是“提振美国半导体”，即过去帮忙。结果6月8日，自己就被列入了对方的“安全威胁名单”。不仅如此，英特尔CEO帕特·基尔辛格还在7月7日，给出了一条这样的建议：540亿美元的半导体扶持资金，应该用在税收总部、工厂、专利都在美国的公司。基尔辛格当初富士康赴美建厂的时候，好歹获得了一句“世界第八大奇迹”的称赞。如果后续招人顺利的话，未必拿不到被许诺的补贴。相形之下，台积电的建厂体验，差的不是一点半点。要知道，台积电在亚利桑那州的工厂，聘请的人力资源主管Benjamin Miller（本杰明·米勒），在英特尔工作了25年时间。与其说这是挖人，不如说是合作。结果八字还没一撇，英特尔竟然直接摊牌：自己其实连补贴都不想给台积电。英特尔既然处境如此尴尬，台积电肯定也要另做打算，争取保证自己的灵活性。这就不得不提到，刘德音的第二则猛料“台积电的布局，有客户需求与生产成本等诸多考量，目前谈论‘是否会在日本大量制造’，仍然太早”。台积电追求自主的主要手段，就是在南京、日本和德国建厂。此前，南京28nm工厂扩产计划被叫停。现在刘德音又亲口确认，台积电正纠结产出的问题，不一定会在日本建厂。那么剩下的，就只有德国。格罗方德可是基尔辛格已经在早前表态，英特尔有去欧洲建厂的相关计划。再结合台积电保护自有技术过程中，所表现出来的被动，以及基尔辛格绝对算不上友好的态度，德国未必是一个好选择。就在7月16日，科创板日报还曝出“英特尔打算收购格罗方德”的消息。格罗方德是全球第四大晶圆代工厂，技术停留在10nm工艺以上，对英特尔的主要价值是客户。台积电答应建厂之前，英特尔也没说自己要代工。如今却加速回归，恐怕是来者不善，台积电还能去哪？（李双喜）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170802548,"gmtCreate":1626417041784,"gmtModify":1626417041784,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊","text":"$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$ 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170802548","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":145459918,"gmtCreate":1626239801634,"gmtModify":1626239801634,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想","text":"$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145459918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":142282799,"gmtCreate":1626152964811,"gmtModify":1626152964811,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不知所云","listText":"不知所云","text":"不知所云","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142282799","repostId":"1126488208","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1126488208","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626141240,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126488208?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 09:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As a Tech Investment, Palantir Puts the Soft in Software","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126488208","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"While other digital companies are fulfilling their promise, PLTR stock hasn’t budged a hair in 2021.","content":"<blockquote>\n While other digital companies are fulfilling their promise, PLTR stock hasn’t budged a hair in 2021.\n</blockquote>\n<p>I’ve written about Denver-based software company Palantir Technologies (NYSE:<b>PLTR</b>) at least three times since arriving at<i>InvestorPlace</i>in my puke-green 1975 AMC Pacer. And my feelings about PLTR stock may be pretty similar to yours regarding my shag-carpeted lemon (lime?).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae3c334400df21791be5286e847ed42b\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Ascannio / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>All I’ve seen is underperformance, unrealized hype and whole lotta rollercoaster. And I don’t mean “Love Rollercoaster.” Gotta love that way-funky tune the Ohio Players released the same year my Pacer wobbled off the assembly line.</p>\n<p>Actually, I don’t own a Pacer. Nor do I see this investment setting any kind of steady pace.</p>\n<p>Since January, PLTR stock has gone up 50%, down 20%, up 23%, down 29% – and from Feb. 9 to date, down more than 35%. If you wanted to buy the dip in the first quarter, you’d have best brought a stopwatch and plenty of Maalox. But hey: At least things have been pretty Dullsville since March, with the stock as flat as a floppy disc.</p>\n<p>And yet, this tech investment that represents in EaaS (enigma as a service) has its share of steadfast fanboys,particularly on<i>Seeking Alpha</i>. “Palantir is in a unique position to be a leading beneficiary of the big data revolution in the years ahead,” writes Andres Cardenal.</p>\n<p>To be fair, he’s got a great track record. But the data he’s crunching here doesn’t include how many time hopeful shareholders have looked to this phenomena as Palantir’s boon … so far to no financial avail.</p>\n<p><b>PLTR Stock: The New Fool’s Gold</b></p>\n<p>To that end, Cardenal contends that “Data is the new gold” – acknowledging it’s a cliche, but insisting it’s true. Well, here’s my equally cliched rebuttal: PLTR stock is fool’s gold, the mother of all wait-and-see investments. Just because data, 5G technology or anything else with a byte in it is taking off doesn’t mean every company in the market stands to soar.</p>\n<p>Here I have two words for you: Diamond Rio. Introduced in 1988, this MP3 player beat the iPod to the market by three years. And if you have one lying around, it might fetch $5 as a paperweight at a garage sale. A Rio disappointment, so to speak.</p>\n<p>And so here’s the rub with Palantir. So far, it has failed to prove it has anything going on that puts it ahead of the pack or even in the middle of it. That leaves plenty of elbow room for much bigger competitors outflank it – which I definitely believe they will. Ask yourself: What’s so special about Palantir’s product line that no one else can replace, imitate or improve upon it?</p>\n<p><b>Demo Day Disappointment</b></p>\n<p>I also think back to the Jan. 26 Demo Day event that showed off its Foundry, Gotham and Apollo products. I assume the purpose was to fuel inject the company’s PR efforts and cheer eager investors. And so?</p>\n<p>While some investment mavens drooled themselves a full bucket, media coverage amounted to an empty cup. A Steve Jobs “just one more thing” rock show it definitely wasn’t.</p>\n<p>No headlines, maybe a handful of stifled yawns and – here comes more data – PLTR stock shed a quarter of its value in the following month. A Demo-ralizing Day for shareholders, I’d say.</p>\n<p><b>Not Quite a Contender</b></p>\n<p>Here I will say again what I’ve so often said before: I take no delight in getting such buzzkill forecasts right. If shareholders profit and observers like Cardenal nail it, I’ll gladly eat my hat, even if it’s an Honest Abe stovepipe special on steroids.</p>\n<p>But in my attempts to build a portfolio of adventurous growth properties, I simply don’t consider PLTR stock a contender. Nor should you. Aside from the nagging issue that Palantir has failed to turn a profit since going public last October, I know of no case to suggest this wannabe growth company has cornered the market on something, anything extraordinary.</p>\n<p>With a market cap of just $46 billion, Palantir would benefit greatly from a blockbuster that would buy it time to spread its wings, as is often the case with small pharmas.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir’s World Is Flat</b></p>\n<p>And so, I present a final set of digits that PLTR stock fans might want to take to the data-driven bank. So far in 2021, Palantir is unchanged. But the<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>is up 15%.</p>\n<p>That this company can’t ride the tide that’s lifting all boats, let alone kick some butt in a market brimming with rich tech investment opportunities, simply does not compute.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As a Tech Investment, Palantir Puts the Soft in Software</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs a Tech Investment, Palantir Puts the Soft in Software\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 09:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/07/pltr-stock-palantir-puts-the-soft-in-software/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While other digital companies are fulfilling their promise, PLTR stock hasn’t budged a hair in 2021.\n\nI’ve written about Denver-based software company Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) at least three ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/pltr-stock-palantir-puts-the-soft-in-software/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/07/pltr-stock-palantir-puts-the-soft-in-software/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126488208","content_text":"While other digital companies are fulfilling their promise, PLTR stock hasn’t budged a hair in 2021.\n\nI’ve written about Denver-based software company Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR) at least three times since arriving atInvestorPlacein my puke-green 1975 AMC Pacer. And my feelings about PLTR stock may be pretty similar to yours regarding my shag-carpeted lemon (lime?).\nSource: Ascannio / Shutterstock.com\nAll I’ve seen is underperformance, unrealized hype and whole lotta rollercoaster. And I don’t mean “Love Rollercoaster.” Gotta love that way-funky tune the Ohio Players released the same year my Pacer wobbled off the assembly line.\nActually, I don’t own a Pacer. Nor do I see this investment setting any kind of steady pace.\nSince January, PLTR stock has gone up 50%, down 20%, up 23%, down 29% – and from Feb. 9 to date, down more than 35%. If you wanted to buy the dip in the first quarter, you’d have best brought a stopwatch and plenty of Maalox. But hey: At least things have been pretty Dullsville since March, with the stock as flat as a floppy disc.\nAnd yet, this tech investment that represents in EaaS (enigma as a service) has its share of steadfast fanboys,particularly onSeeking Alpha. “Palantir is in a unique position to be a leading beneficiary of the big data revolution in the years ahead,” writes Andres Cardenal.\nTo be fair, he’s got a great track record. But the data he’s crunching here doesn’t include how many time hopeful shareholders have looked to this phenomena as Palantir’s boon … so far to no financial avail.\nPLTR Stock: The New Fool’s Gold\nTo that end, Cardenal contends that “Data is the new gold” – acknowledging it’s a cliche, but insisting it’s true. Well, here’s my equally cliched rebuttal: PLTR stock is fool’s gold, the mother of all wait-and-see investments. Just because data, 5G technology or anything else with a byte in it is taking off doesn’t mean every company in the market stands to soar.\nHere I have two words for you: Diamond Rio. Introduced in 1988, this MP3 player beat the iPod to the market by three years. And if you have one lying around, it might fetch $5 as a paperweight at a garage sale. A Rio disappointment, so to speak.\nAnd so here’s the rub with Palantir. So far, it has failed to prove it has anything going on that puts it ahead of the pack or even in the middle of it. That leaves plenty of elbow room for much bigger competitors outflank it – which I definitely believe they will. Ask yourself: What’s so special about Palantir’s product line that no one else can replace, imitate or improve upon it?\nDemo Day Disappointment\nI also think back to the Jan. 26 Demo Day event that showed off its Foundry, Gotham and Apollo products. I assume the purpose was to fuel inject the company’s PR efforts and cheer eager investors. And so?\nWhile some investment mavens drooled themselves a full bucket, media coverage amounted to an empty cup. A Steve Jobs “just one more thing” rock show it definitely wasn’t.\nNo headlines, maybe a handful of stifled yawns and – here comes more data – PLTR stock shed a quarter of its value in the following month. A Demo-ralizing Day for shareholders, I’d say.\nNot Quite a Contender\nHere I will say again what I’ve so often said before: I take no delight in getting such buzzkill forecasts right. If shareholders profit and observers like Cardenal nail it, I’ll gladly eat my hat, even if it’s an Honest Abe stovepipe special on steroids.\nBut in my attempts to build a portfolio of adventurous growth properties, I simply don’t consider PLTR stock a contender. Nor should you. Aside from the nagging issue that Palantir has failed to turn a profit since going public last October, I know of no case to suggest this wannabe growth company has cornered the market on something, anything extraordinary.\nWith a market cap of just $46 billion, Palantir would benefit greatly from a blockbuster that would buy it time to spread its wings, as is often the case with small pharmas.\nPalantir’s World Is Flat\nAnd so, I present a final set of digits that PLTR stock fans might want to take to the data-driven bank. So far in 2021, Palantir is unchanged. But theDow Jones Industrial Averageis up 15%.\nThat this company can’t ride the tide that’s lifting all boats, let alone kick some butt in a market brimming with rich tech investment opportunities, simply does not compute.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140050708,"gmtCreate":1625620686804,"gmtModify":1625620686804,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？","text":"$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$ 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140050708","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":154488868,"gmtCreate":1625538995354,"gmtModify":1625538995354,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"典型双标文章","listText":"典型双标文章","text":"典型双标文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154488868","repostId":"2149074334","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156880193,"gmtCreate":1625210385012,"gmtModify":1625210385012,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"存储的需求怎么了能降低呢，远不止PC 场景啊","listText":"存储的需求怎么了能降低呢，远不止PC 场景啊","text":"存储的需求怎么了能降低呢，远不止PC 场景啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156880193","repostId":"1174610224","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174610224","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625188786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174610224?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174610224","media":"thestreet","summary":"Micron Technology (MU) -Get Report and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia (NVDA) wa","content":"<p>Micron Technology&nbsp;(<b>MU</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;was bucking the trend.</p>\n<p>The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;(<b>SOXX</b>) &nbsp;was down 1.4% at closing. Micron,&nbsp;the biggest decliner in the benchmark chip index, fell 5.7% to $80.11.</p>\n<p>Other semiconductor industry companies losing ground Thursday included Applied Materials&nbsp;(<b>AMAT</b>), down 3.1%; Lam Research&nbsp;(<b>LRCX</b>) -Get Report, off 2.7%, and Texas Instruments&nbsp;(<b>TXN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;was off nearly 1%.</p>\n<p>Video Preview: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech - VanEckWatch this exclusive conversation, The Evolution of Blockchain: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech. A free webinar with premiere experts, sponsored by VanEck.Volume 90%</p>\n<p>Shares of Nvidia, however, were up 1.1%, afterBMO Capital Marketsanalyst Ambrish Srivastava raised his price target on the chip titan to $1,000 from $75 and affirmed an outperform rating.</p>\n<p>The target on the Santa Clara, Calif., company is the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.</p>\n<p>Micron Technology shares fell even after the&nbsp;company reportedfiscal-third-quarternet income per share more than doubled on 36% higher revenue.</p>\n<p>For the quarter ended June 3, Micron earned $1.74 billion, or $1.52 a share, compared with $803 million, or 71 cents, in the year-earlier quarter. The latest adjusted earnings were $1.88 a share.&nbsp;Revenue reached $7.42 billion from $5.44 billion.</p>\n<p>Several analysts raised their price targets for Micron, but UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the firm's price target to $110 from $120, while keeping a buy rating, according to the Fly.</p>\n<p>He noted that the company's cycle commentary should address investors' concerns regarding sustainability, but the management's outlook on cost and capital expenditures \"take a bite\" out of 2022 free cash flows.</p>\n<p>TheStreet FounderJim Cramer said\"there's a lot of people saying 'PCs peaked,' and that's bad for Micron.\"</p>\n<p>Cramer added that CEO Sanjay Mehrotra \"did not say what I wanted to hear, which is, 'look&nbsp;everything is on allocation.'\"</p>\n<p>\"And because he didn’t do that,\" Cramer said, \"people are saying 'you know what, it’s time to focus on other semis, and go up the food chain, not down.' And that would be Nvidia.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-sinks-most-chip-stocks-but-nvidia-climbs?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO><strong>thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Micron Technology (MU) -Get Report and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia (NVDA) was bucking the trend.\nThe iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)  was down 1.4% at closing. Micron, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-sinks-most-chip-stocks-but-nvidia-climbs?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","LRCX":"拉姆研究","NVDA":"英伟达","TXN":"德州仪器","AMAT":"应用材料"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-sinks-most-chip-stocks-but-nvidia-climbs?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174610224","content_text":"Micron Technology (MU) -Get Report and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia (NVDA) was bucking the trend.\nThe iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)  was down 1.4% at closing. Micron, the biggest decliner in the benchmark chip index, fell 5.7% to $80.11.\nOther semiconductor industry companies losing ground Thursday included Applied Materials (AMAT), down 3.1%; Lam Research (LRCX) -Get Report, off 2.7%, and Texas Instruments (TXN) -Get Report was off nearly 1%.\nVideo Preview: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech - VanEckWatch this exclusive conversation, The Evolution of Blockchain: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech. A free webinar with premiere experts, sponsored by VanEck.Volume 90%\nShares of Nvidia, however, were up 1.1%, afterBMO Capital Marketsanalyst Ambrish Srivastava raised his price target on the chip titan to $1,000 from $75 and affirmed an outperform rating.\nThe target on the Santa Clara, Calif., company is the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.\nMicron Technology shares fell even after the company reportedfiscal-third-quarternet income per share more than doubled on 36% higher revenue.\nFor the quarter ended June 3, Micron earned $1.74 billion, or $1.52 a share, compared with $803 million, or 71 cents, in the year-earlier quarter. The latest adjusted earnings were $1.88 a share. Revenue reached $7.42 billion from $5.44 billion.\nSeveral analysts raised their price targets for Micron, but UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the firm's price target to $110 from $120, while keeping a buy rating, according to the Fly.\nHe noted that the company's cycle commentary should address investors' concerns regarding sustainability, but the management's outlook on cost and capital expenditures \"take a bite\" out of 2022 free cash flows.\nTheStreet FounderJim Cramer said\"there's a lot of people saying 'PCs peaked,' and that's bad for Micron.\"\nCramer added that CEO Sanjay Mehrotra \"did not say what I wanted to hear, which is, 'look everything is on allocation.'\"\n\"And because he didn’t do that,\" Cramer said, \"people are saying 'you know what, it’s time to focus on other semis, and go up the food chain, not down.' And that would be Nvidia.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116051951,"gmtCreate":1622767200073,"gmtModify":1622767200073,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"此时不割韭菜更待何时？不同意增发天理不容","listText":"此时不割韭菜更待何时？不同意增发天理不容","text":"此时不割韭菜更待何时？不同意增发天理不容","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116051951","repostId":"2140732964","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2140732964","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1622756700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140732964?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 05:45","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"AMC to ask shareholders for right to issue 25 million more shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140732964","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"MW AMC to ask shareholders for right to issue 25 million more shares\n\n\n  AMC Entertainment Holdings ","content":"<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW AMC to ask shareholders for right to issue 25 million more shares\n</p>\n<p>\n  AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a> revealed Thursday afternoon that it will ask shareholders for the authority to issue up to 25 million shares, after selling stock into a dramatic upswell of its share price in recent days. \"To successfully navigate the road ahead, we seek to assemble all of the financial tools that might help us,\" AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron said in a statement. \"An important tool for any company is having shares available to issue if, and only if, the right value creation opportunity arises.\" AMC previously planned to ask shareholders for approval to issue up to 500 million fresh shares, roughly as many as are currently in circulation, but canceled those plans after an uproar from investors . AMC plans to hold its annual shareholders meeting on July 29, when the vote would be held. AMC shares fell 17.9% in Thursday's regular session, and were down roughly 5% in after-hours trading, when the latest update was announced. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Jeremy C. Owens; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 03, 2021 17:45 ET (21:45 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC to ask shareholders for right to issue 25 million more shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC to ask shareholders for right to issue 25 million more shares\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-04 05:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\nMW AMC to ask shareholders for right to issue 25 million more shares\n</p>\n<p>\n  AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$(AMC)$</a> revealed Thursday afternoon that it will ask shareholders for the authority to issue up to 25 million shares, after selling stock into a dramatic upswell of its share price in recent days. \"To successfully navigate the road ahead, we seek to assemble all of the financial tools that might help us,\" AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron said in a statement. \"An important tool for any company is having shares available to issue if, and only if, the right value creation opportunity arises.\" AMC previously planned to ask shareholders for approval to issue up to 500 million fresh shares, roughly as many as are currently in circulation, but canceled those plans after an uproar from investors . AMC plans to hold its annual shareholders meeting on July 29, when the vote would be held. AMC shares fell 17.9% in Thursday's regular session, and were down roughly 5% in after-hours trading, when the latest update was announced. \n</p>\n<p>\n  -Jeremy C. Owens; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n</p>\n<pre>\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/END\">$(END)$</a> Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  June 03, 2021 17:45 ET (21:45 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140732964","content_text":"MW AMC to ask shareholders for right to issue 25 million more shares\n\n\n  AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. $(AMC)$ revealed Thursday afternoon that it will ask shareholders for the authority to issue up to 25 million shares, after selling stock into a dramatic upswell of its share price in recent days. \"To successfully navigate the road ahead, we seek to assemble all of the financial tools that might help us,\" AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron said in a statement. \"An important tool for any company is having shares available to issue if, and only if, the right value creation opportunity arises.\" AMC previously planned to ask shareholders for approval to issue up to 500 million fresh shares, roughly as many as are currently in circulation, but canceled those plans after an uproar from investors . AMC plans to hold its annual shareholders meeting on July 29, when the vote would be held. AMC shares fell 17.9% in Thursday's regular session, and were down roughly 5% in after-hours trading, when the latest update was announced. \n\n\n  -Jeremy C. Owens; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com \n\n\n \n\n\n$(END)$ Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  June 03, 2021 17:45 ET (21:45 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2021 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110924791,"gmtCreate":1622422675613,"gmtModify":1622422675613,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失","listText":"实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失","text":"实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110924791","repostId":"1181277246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181277246","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注消费领域的财经新媒体","home_visible":1,"media_name":"斑马消费","id":"1062589793","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a44abb8f6e4a7f9ab19581f07af619"},"pubTimestamp":1622419072,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181277246?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-31 07:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181277246","media":"斑马消费","summary":"2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。\n实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的理想汽车美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。\n只要","content":"<p>2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。</p>\n<p>只要2020年中爆发的社区团购烧钱大战，不以巨头们找到稳定增长与合理盈利的平衡而结束，这一波亏损便会持续下去。</p>\n<p>而且，在王兴“边界论”的指挥下，美团正在不断将新业务纳入到拼杀版图中来，比如最近开始崭露头角的团好货。<b>扩张无止境，战火永不停。</b></p>\n<p>持续的亏损、对手的围堵，都没能让王兴的战鼓歇下来，反垄断能让它停下指挥棒吗？</p>\n<p><b>一季度亏损48.46亿元</b></p>\n<p>5月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>披露2021年Q1业绩公告，公司收入370.16亿元，同比增长120.94%，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>即便剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，更能反映公司主营业务盈利情况的经调整亏损额，当期也达到38.92亿元。</p>\n<p><b>今年一季度，美团的营业收入增长率超过120%，创下公司上市以来单季度收入增长的最高纪录</b>，主要原因为公司三大业务均实现收入翻倍增长。其中增速最高的新业务及其他板块（主要为社区团购），收入同比增长了135.45%。</p>\n<p>但是，亏损也是来自这个板块。今年1-3月，公司餐饮外卖和到店、酒店及旅游，分别实现经营利润11.16亿元和27.48亿元，但扛不住新业务亏掉80.44亿元，导致公司整体净利润为负。</p>\n<p><b>对于仍处于成长期的美团来说，亏损一直是常态。</b></p>\n<p>2015年-2018年，公司净利润分别为-105.19亿元、-57.95亿元、-189.88亿元、-1154.93亿元。同样剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，公司经调整净利润分别为-59.14亿元、-53.53亿元、-28.53亿元、-85.17亿元。</p>\n<p>上市后的第一年，美团终于盈利了一回。2019年，公司净利润14.60亿元，经调整净利润22.70亿元。然而，这十几亿业绩，剔除投资收益等项目，相对于公司近千亿收入，只能是聊胜于无。</p>\n<p>2020年，公司进军社区团购，推出美团优选，行业陷入熟悉的烧钱大战之中。</p>\n<p>不过，美团最终却奇迹般地实现了盈利。去年，公司收入、净利润分别为1147.95亿元、47.08亿元。</p>\n<p>斑马消费梳理后发现，这主要是由于<b>公司金融投资的公允价值变动收益50亿元，以及其他收益净额32亿元。</b></p>\n<p>原来，美团投资的新能源汽车理想汽车，2020年7月美股上市，随后几个月股价飙升，最高价较发行价上涨了接近300%，该公司市值一度飙升至接近400亿美元左右。美团所持股份的价值也水涨船高。若剔除这些影响因素，公司仍然是巨亏的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35379da5b734064bbfc80ae81d50d115\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>王兴的无限战争</b></p>\n<p>美团王兴与字节跳动张一鸣均来自福建龙岩，2007年王兴创立饭否，张一鸣是其技术合伙人。两家公司的发展思路，也如出一辙。</p>\n<p>字节跳动依靠今日头条，陆续孵化出抖音、西瓜视频、悟空问答、懂车帝等产品；美团以起家的团购业务为核心，陆续拓展至外卖、酒店、出行、社区团购。现在独立成长的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01896\">猫眼娱乐</a>，就是从美团的电影票频道中孵化出来的。</p>\n<p>其中尤其以美团的裂变更为彻底，如今外卖、酒店这两大业务，都盖过了到店业务的风头。</p>\n<p>王兴像一位运筹帷幄的古代大将军，打下一座又一座城池，将之连成一片扩充势力范围后，再向更多更大的城池进攻。</p>\n<p>一方面，美团以现有的业务服务，来稳定现有客户群；另一方面，以用户规模为基础，开辟新业务，获取新用户，相辅相成。</p>\n<p>不过，整体而言，<b>美团的用户和商户增长速度，增长恐难以持续。</b></p>\n<p>2018年-2020年，美团交易用户数目增长率分别为29.3%、12.5%、13.3%，活跃商家数目增长率分别为32.1%、7.1%、10.1%。</p>\n<p>截止2021年3月31日的12个月，公司交易用户数目达到5.69亿，同比增长26.9%，活跃商家数目710万，同比增长16.9%。</p>\n<p>注意，2020年以来的新增用户，绝大部分来自社区团购、闪购、单车等新业务，仅有少量由外卖等传统业务贡献。当然最重要的是，<b>拉新的前提是烧钱</b>，新业务去年亏损108.55亿元，今年仅一季度就亏掉了80.44亿元。</p>\n<p>越是在用户增长见顶、拉新成本上升的时候，越需要加快新业务的裂变速度。</p>\n<p>除了我们熟知的上述业务，美团正在积极布局电商，团好货已经占据了美团APP的核心分区之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>和阿里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>苏宁，慌不慌？</p>\n<p>为了增加用户时长，美团有没有可能学支付宝和携程，布局内容？坐拥如此大的流量，大多为高频使用，美团有没有可能像B站和快手那样，上几个赚钱最快的游戏产品？</p>\n<p><b>美团真的没有边界吗？</b></p>\n<p>作为企业家中的思想家和战略家，王兴在江湖中流传最广的便是“边界论”。</p>\n<p>“万物其实是没有简单边界的，所以我不认为要给自己设限。<b>只要核心是清晰的——我们到底服务什么人？给他们提供什么服务？我们就会不断尝试各种业务。”</b></p>\n<p>理论上来说，只要坐拥海量用户，就可以不断地进行业务的多元化。比如说我们现在看到的，滴滴的社区团购、网易的养殖……都搞得有声有色。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/128c68d7e383dee6f01c979244187ee8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，美团真的可以无限扩张下去吗？</p>\n<p>当一家公司的业务足够庞杂，风险的积累往往超出想象。就以美团旗下的300万骑手而言，人们现在更关注骑手这个职业的收入与风险暴涨，系统与骑手的匹配，这都会无形中加大公司的投入。</p>\n<p>企业的战略平衡，最终落点都是资金。在一二级市场持续的输血下，即便连续多年巨额亏损，截止2021年3月底公司现金及现金等价物以及短期理财投资分别为178亿元和353亿元。</p>\n<p>面对社区团购、电商这一场又一场恶战，美团觉得这些钱可能还不够，4月底发公告准备通过发行可换股债券和新股，募资100亿美元。</p>\n<p>王兴不希望美团有边界，但是，<b>竞争对手们想用业务围堵的方式，把美团困在边界内。</b></p>\n<p>做生意，要把朋友搞得多多的，把敌人搞得少少的。</p>\n<p>而美团正相反。进军酒店，把几乎一统OTA天下的携程，重新拉回战场；推出美团打车，收购摩拜，挤压的是滴滴的市场；就连共享充电宝这个并不大的市场，三电一兽短兵相接，因为美团进入，预期格局大不一样……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196695de414cfc7dd66ff169a221180b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>拼多多、滴滴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等巨头相继加入社区团购大战，学美团不断拓展边界、通过线下业务转化线上流量之外，一个不得不提的出发点，就是围堵美团——因为社区团购与美团的既有业务和战略布局最贴近。</p>\n<p>好一招围魏救赵，亦或是围点打援。</p>\n<p>此前京东前高管评论京东分拆上市时说，“拆了省的以后被反垄断”。在本地生活领域业务几乎无所不包的美团，当下正面临这样的烦恼。</p>\n<p>4月26日，市场监管总局发布通知，依法对美团涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。</p>\n<p>短期来看，会罚多少钱？中长期来看，<b>是否会对美团的业务布局产生影响？王兴会不会就此重新梳理一下他的“边界论”？</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1062589793\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a44abb8f6e4a7f9ab19581f07af619);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">斑马消费 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-31 07:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。</p>\n<p>只要2020年中爆发的社区团购烧钱大战，不以巨头们找到稳定增长与合理盈利的平衡而结束，这一波亏损便会持续下去。</p>\n<p>而且，在王兴“边界论”的指挥下，美团正在不断将新业务纳入到拼杀版图中来，比如最近开始崭露头角的团好货。<b>扩张无止境，战火永不停。</b></p>\n<p>持续的亏损、对手的围堵，都没能让王兴的战鼓歇下来，反垄断能让它停下指挥棒吗？</p>\n<p><b>一季度亏损48.46亿元</b></p>\n<p>5月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>披露2021年Q1业绩公告，公司收入370.16亿元，同比增长120.94%，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>即便剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，更能反映公司主营业务盈利情况的经调整亏损额，当期也达到38.92亿元。</p>\n<p><b>今年一季度，美团的营业收入增长率超过120%，创下公司上市以来单季度收入增长的最高纪录</b>，主要原因为公司三大业务均实现收入翻倍增长。其中增速最高的新业务及其他板块（主要为社区团购），收入同比增长了135.45%。</p>\n<p>但是，亏损也是来自这个板块。今年1-3月，公司餐饮外卖和到店、酒店及旅游，分别实现经营利润11.16亿元和27.48亿元，但扛不住新业务亏掉80.44亿元，导致公司整体净利润为负。</p>\n<p><b>对于仍处于成长期的美团来说，亏损一直是常态。</b></p>\n<p>2015年-2018年，公司净利润分别为-105.19亿元、-57.95亿元、-189.88亿元、-1154.93亿元。同样剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，公司经调整净利润分别为-59.14亿元、-53.53亿元、-28.53亿元、-85.17亿元。</p>\n<p>上市后的第一年，美团终于盈利了一回。2019年，公司净利润14.60亿元，经调整净利润22.70亿元。然而，这十几亿业绩，剔除投资收益等项目，相对于公司近千亿收入，只能是聊胜于无。</p>\n<p>2020年，公司进军社区团购，推出美团优选，行业陷入熟悉的烧钱大战之中。</p>\n<p>不过，美团最终却奇迹般地实现了盈利。去年，公司收入、净利润分别为1147.95亿元、47.08亿元。</p>\n<p>斑马消费梳理后发现，这主要是由于<b>公司金融投资的公允价值变动收益50亿元，以及其他收益净额32亿元。</b></p>\n<p>原来，美团投资的新能源汽车理想汽车，2020年7月美股上市，随后几个月股价飙升，最高价较发行价上涨了接近300%，该公司市值一度飙升至接近400亿美元左右。美团所持股份的价值也水涨船高。若剔除这些影响因素，公司仍然是巨亏的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35379da5b734064bbfc80ae81d50d115\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>王兴的无限战争</b></p>\n<p>美团王兴与字节跳动张一鸣均来自福建龙岩，2007年王兴创立饭否，张一鸣是其技术合伙人。两家公司的发展思路，也如出一辙。</p>\n<p>字节跳动依靠今日头条，陆续孵化出抖音、西瓜视频、悟空问答、懂车帝等产品；美团以起家的团购业务为核心，陆续拓展至外卖、酒店、出行、社区团购。现在独立成长的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01896\">猫眼娱乐</a>，就是从美团的电影票频道中孵化出来的。</p>\n<p>其中尤其以美团的裂变更为彻底，如今外卖、酒店这两大业务，都盖过了到店业务的风头。</p>\n<p>王兴像一位运筹帷幄的古代大将军，打下一座又一座城池，将之连成一片扩充势力范围后，再向更多更大的城池进攻。</p>\n<p>一方面，美团以现有的业务服务，来稳定现有客户群；另一方面，以用户规模为基础，开辟新业务，获取新用户，相辅相成。</p>\n<p>不过，整体而言，<b>美团的用户和商户增长速度，增长恐难以持续。</b></p>\n<p>2018年-2020年，美团交易用户数目增长率分别为29.3%、12.5%、13.3%，活跃商家数目增长率分别为32.1%、7.1%、10.1%。</p>\n<p>截止2021年3月31日的12个月，公司交易用户数目达到5.69亿，同比增长26.9%，活跃商家数目710万，同比增长16.9%。</p>\n<p>注意，2020年以来的新增用户，绝大部分来自社区团购、闪购、单车等新业务，仅有少量由外卖等传统业务贡献。当然最重要的是，<b>拉新的前提是烧钱</b>，新业务去年亏损108.55亿元，今年仅一季度就亏掉了80.44亿元。</p>\n<p>越是在用户增长见顶、拉新成本上升的时候，越需要加快新业务的裂变速度。</p>\n<p>除了我们熟知的上述业务，美团正在积极布局电商，团好货已经占据了美团APP的核心分区之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>和阿里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>苏宁，慌不慌？</p>\n<p>为了增加用户时长，美团有没有可能学支付宝和携程，布局内容？坐拥如此大的流量，大多为高频使用，美团有没有可能像B站和快手那样，上几个赚钱最快的游戏产品？</p>\n<p><b>美团真的没有边界吗？</b></p>\n<p>作为企业家中的思想家和战略家，王兴在江湖中流传最广的便是“边界论”。</p>\n<p>“万物其实是没有简单边界的，所以我不认为要给自己设限。<b>只要核心是清晰的——我们到底服务什么人？给他们提供什么服务？我们就会不断尝试各种业务。”</b></p>\n<p>理论上来说，只要坐拥海量用户，就可以不断地进行业务的多元化。比如说我们现在看到的，滴滴的社区团购、网易的养殖……都搞得有声有色。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/128c68d7e383dee6f01c979244187ee8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，美团真的可以无限扩张下去吗？</p>\n<p>当一家公司的业务足够庞杂，风险的积累往往超出想象。就以美团旗下的300万骑手而言，人们现在更关注骑手这个职业的收入与风险暴涨，系统与骑手的匹配，这都会无形中加大公司的投入。</p>\n<p>企业的战略平衡，最终落点都是资金。在一二级市场持续的输血下，即便连续多年巨额亏损，截止2021年3月底公司现金及现金等价物以及短期理财投资分别为178亿元和353亿元。</p>\n<p>面对社区团购、电商这一场又一场恶战，美团觉得这些钱可能还不够，4月底发公告准备通过发行可换股债券和新股，募资100亿美元。</p>\n<p>王兴不希望美团有边界，但是，<b>竞争对手们想用业务围堵的方式，把美团困在边界内。</b></p>\n<p>做生意，要把朋友搞得多多的，把敌人搞得少少的。</p>\n<p>而美团正相反。进军酒店，把几乎一统OTA天下的携程，重新拉回战场；推出美团打车，收购摩拜，挤压的是滴滴的市场；就连共享充电宝这个并不大的市场，三电一兽短兵相接，因为美团进入，预期格局大不一样……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196695de414cfc7dd66ff169a221180b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>拼多多、滴滴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等巨头相继加入社区团购大战，学美团不断拓展边界、通过线下业务转化线上流量之外，一个不得不提的出发点，就是围堵美团——因为社区团购与美团的既有业务和战略布局最贴近。</p>\n<p>好一招围魏救赵，亦或是围点打援。</p>\n<p>此前京东前高管评论京东分拆上市时说，“拆了省的以后被反垄断”。在本地生活领域业务几乎无所不包的美团，当下正面临这样的烦恼。</p>\n<p>4月26日，市场监管总局发布通知，依法对美团涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。</p>\n<p>短期来看，会罚多少钱？中长期来看，<b>是否会对美团的业务布局产生影响？王兴会不会就此重新梳理一下他的“边界论”？</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03690":"美团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181277246","content_text":"2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。\n实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的理想汽车美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。\n只要2020年中爆发的社区团购烧钱大战，不以巨头们找到稳定增长与合理盈利的平衡而结束，这一波亏损便会持续下去。\n而且，在王兴“边界论”的指挥下，美团正在不断将新业务纳入到拼杀版图中来，比如最近开始崭露头角的团好货。扩张无止境，战火永不停。\n持续的亏损、对手的围堵，都没能让王兴的战鼓歇下来，反垄断能让它停下指挥棒吗？\n一季度亏损48.46亿元\n5月28日，美团-W披露2021年Q1业绩公告，公司收入370.16亿元，同比增长120.94%，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。\n即便剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，更能反映公司主营业务盈利情况的经调整亏损额，当期也达到38.92亿元。\n今年一季度，美团的营业收入增长率超过120%，创下公司上市以来单季度收入增长的最高纪录，主要原因为公司三大业务均实现收入翻倍增长。其中增速最高的新业务及其他板块（主要为社区团购），收入同比增长了135.45%。\n但是，亏损也是来自这个板块。今年1-3月，公司餐饮外卖和到店、酒店及旅游，分别实现经营利润11.16亿元和27.48亿元，但扛不住新业务亏掉80.44亿元，导致公司整体净利润为负。\n对于仍处于成长期的美团来说，亏损一直是常态。\n2015年-2018年，公司净利润分别为-105.19亿元、-57.95亿元、-189.88亿元、-1154.93亿元。同样剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，公司经调整净利润分别为-59.14亿元、-53.53亿元、-28.53亿元、-85.17亿元。\n上市后的第一年，美团终于盈利了一回。2019年，公司净利润14.60亿元，经调整净利润22.70亿元。然而，这十几亿业绩，剔除投资收益等项目，相对于公司近千亿收入，只能是聊胜于无。\n2020年，公司进军社区团购，推出美团优选，行业陷入熟悉的烧钱大战之中。\n不过，美团最终却奇迹般地实现了盈利。去年，公司收入、净利润分别为1147.95亿元、47.08亿元。\n斑马消费梳理后发现，这主要是由于公司金融投资的公允价值变动收益50亿元，以及其他收益净额32亿元。\n原来，美团投资的新能源汽车理想汽车，2020年7月美股上市，随后几个月股价飙升，最高价较发行价上涨了接近300%，该公司市值一度飙升至接近400亿美元左右。美团所持股份的价值也水涨船高。若剔除这些影响因素，公司仍然是巨亏的。\n\n王兴的无限战争\n美团王兴与字节跳动张一鸣均来自福建龙岩，2007年王兴创立饭否，张一鸣是其技术合伙人。两家公司的发展思路，也如出一辙。\n字节跳动依靠今日头条，陆续孵化出抖音、西瓜视频、悟空问答、懂车帝等产品；美团以起家的团购业务为核心，陆续拓展至外卖、酒店、出行、社区团购。现在独立成长的猫眼娱乐，就是从美团的电影票频道中孵化出来的。\n其中尤其以美团的裂变更为彻底，如今外卖、酒店这两大业务，都盖过了到店业务的风头。\n王兴像一位运筹帷幄的古代大将军，打下一座又一座城池，将之连成一片扩充势力范围后，再向更多更大的城池进攻。\n一方面，美团以现有的业务服务，来稳定现有客户群；另一方面，以用户规模为基础，开辟新业务，获取新用户，相辅相成。\n不过，整体而言，美团的用户和商户增长速度，增长恐难以持续。\n2018年-2020年，美团交易用户数目增长率分别为29.3%、12.5%、13.3%，活跃商家数目增长率分别为32.1%、7.1%、10.1%。\n截止2021年3月31日的12个月，公司交易用户数目达到5.69亿，同比增长26.9%，活跃商家数目710万，同比增长16.9%。\n注意，2020年以来的新增用户，绝大部分来自社区团购、闪购、单车等新业务，仅有少量由外卖等传统业务贡献。当然最重要的是，拉新的前提是烧钱，新业务去年亏损108.55亿元，今年仅一季度就亏掉了80.44亿元。\n越是在用户增长见顶、拉新成本上升的时候，越需要加快新业务的裂变速度。\n除了我们熟知的上述业务，美团正在积极布局电商，团好货已经占据了美团APP的核心分区之一，拼多多和阿里京东苏宁，慌不慌？\n为了增加用户时长，美团有没有可能学支付宝和携程，布局内容？坐拥如此大的流量，大多为高频使用，美团有没有可能像B站和快手那样，上几个赚钱最快的游戏产品？\n美团真的没有边界吗？\n作为企业家中的思想家和战略家，王兴在江湖中流传最广的便是“边界论”。\n“万物其实是没有简单边界的，所以我不认为要给自己设限。只要核心是清晰的——我们到底服务什么人？给他们提供什么服务？我们就会不断尝试各种业务。”\n理论上来说，只要坐拥海量用户，就可以不断地进行业务的多元化。比如说我们现在看到的，滴滴的社区团购、网易的养殖……都搞得有声有色。\n\n但是，美团真的可以无限扩张下去吗？\n当一家公司的业务足够庞杂，风险的积累往往超出想象。就以美团旗下的300万骑手而言，人们现在更关注骑手这个职业的收入与风险暴涨，系统与骑手的匹配，这都会无形中加大公司的投入。\n企业的战略平衡，最终落点都是资金。在一二级市场持续的输血下，即便连续多年巨额亏损，截止2021年3月底公司现金及现金等价物以及短期理财投资分别为178亿元和353亿元。\n面对社区团购、电商这一场又一场恶战，美团觉得这些钱可能还不够，4月底发公告准备通过发行可换股债券和新股，募资100亿美元。\n王兴不希望美团有边界，但是，竞争对手们想用业务围堵的方式，把美团困在边界内。\n做生意，要把朋友搞得多多的，把敌人搞得少少的。\n而美团正相反。进军酒店，把几乎一统OTA天下的携程，重新拉回战场；推出美团打车，收购摩拜，挤压的是滴滴的市场；就连共享充电宝这个并不大的市场，三电一兽短兵相接，因为美团进入，预期格局大不一样……\n\n拼多多、滴滴、阿里巴巴等巨头相继加入社区团购大战，学美团不断拓展边界、通过线下业务转化线上流量之外，一个不得不提的出发点，就是围堵美团——因为社区团购与美团的既有业务和战略布局最贴近。\n好一招围魏救赵，亦或是围点打援。\n此前京东前高管评论京东分拆上市时说，“拆了省的以后被反垄断”。在本地生活领域业务几乎无所不包的美团，当下正面临这样的烦恼。\n4月26日，市场监管总局发布通知，依法对美团涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。\n短期来看，会罚多少钱？中长期来看，是否会对美团的业务布局产生影响？王兴会不会就此重新梳理一下他的“边界论”？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":137528147,"gmtCreate":1622365584289,"gmtModify":1622365584289,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"比特币注定不会成为货币，因为作为法定货币是否有价值取决于一个国家主权和经济能力的背书，比特币只能作为投机资产在哪炒作，但不可能作为货币，完全不符合逻辑","listText":"比特币注定不会成为货币，因为作为法定货币是否有价值取决于一个国家主权和经济能力的背书，比特币只能作为投机资产在哪炒作，但不可能作为货币，完全不符合逻辑","text":"比特币注定不会成为货币，因为作为法定货币是否有价值取决于一个国家主权和经济能力的背书，比特币只能作为投机资产在哪炒作，但不可能作为货币，完全不符合逻辑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137528147","repostId":"1196267503","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135793571,"gmtCreate":1622181905493,"gmtModify":1622181905493,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"整个行业已经崩溃了","listText":"整个行业已经崩溃了","text":"整个行业已经崩溃了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"re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因为我可以看到未来"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":139461085,"gmtCreate":1621650673247,"gmtModify":1621650673247,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以毫不客气的说，小米无论做什么都像模仿华为产品的拙劣的山寨地摊货，永远在模仿，从来没被认可和赢得名声","listText":"可以毫不客气的说，小米无论做什么都像模仿华为产品的拙劣的山寨地摊货，永远在模仿，从来没被认可和赢得名声","text":"可以毫不客气的说，小米无论做什么都像模仿华为产品的拙劣的山寨地摊货，永远在模仿，从来没被认可和赢得名声","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139461085","repostId":"1140971700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494280676693116","authorId":"3494280676693116","name":"啊油欧剋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/818d7be7a665018c6a05744a3eb8ef89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494280676693116","authorIdStr":"3494280676693116"},"content":"小米做智能家居说人家杂货铺，华为也跟着，有脸说小米","text":"小米做智能家居说人家杂货铺，华为也跟着，有脸说小米","html":"小米做智能家居说人家杂货铺，华为也跟着，有脸说小米"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320633248,"gmtCreate":1615089805884,"gmtModify":1703484649624,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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我周五收盘时买入了40手的看涨期权，感觉基本调整到位，下周应该会有一波上涨行情，拭目以待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320633248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576903129122961","authorId":"3576903129122961","name":"人来人往1977","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d54cec49f1e685203503377551826a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576903129122961","authorIdStr":"3576903129122961"},"content":"40手？目标股价多少？","text":"40手？目标股价多少？","html":"40手？目标股价多少？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":145459918,"gmtCreate":1626239801634,"gmtModify":1626239801634,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想","text":"$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145459918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":139998538,"gmtCreate":1621581870524,"gmtModify":1621581870524,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"煞有介事，装腔作势","listText":"煞有介事，装腔作势","text":"煞有介事，装腔作势","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/139998538","repostId":"1143921562","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143921562","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621580902,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143921562?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 15:08","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Musk Tells Ark That Audits Could Solve Bitcoin’s Energy Concerns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143921562","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Thursday that audits of renewable energy used by large Bitcoin miners could","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;CEO Elon Musk said Thursday that audits of renewable energy used by large Bitcoin miners could help assuage concerns about the cryptocurrency’s environmental impact.</p>\n<p>“Recent extreme energy usage growth could not possibly have been done so fast with renewables,” Musk said in response to a tweet from&nbsp;Ark Investment&nbsp;director of research Brett Winton about the potential that Bitcoin mining has to foster the wider use of solar and battery systems on the power grid. “This question is easily resolved if the top 10 hashing orgs just post audited numbers of renewable energyvsnot.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b271f24107084803b8c4b07deb47f6\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p>Musk,responding to another Twitter user&nbsp;who asked about ideal energy usage in crypto mining, implied that even his favored Dogecoin still had some room for improvement and said he favored a ratio of 0.1kWh, “calculated as total energy used by system divided by max transaction rate.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/609369d003181ae90e03500b74dfd4c2\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"724\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk Tells Ark That Audits Could Solve Bitcoin’s Energy Concerns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk Tells Ark That Audits Could Solve Bitcoin’s Energy Concerns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 15:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-20/musk-tells-ark-that-audits-could-solve-bitcoin-s-energy-concerns><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Thursday that audits of renewable energy used by large Bitcoin miners could help assuage concerns about the cryptocurrency’s environmental impact.\n“Recent extreme energy usage...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-20/musk-tells-ark-that-audits-could-solve-bitcoin-s-energy-concerns\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","PYPL":"PayPal","SQ":"Block","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-20/musk-tells-ark-that-audits-could-solve-bitcoin-s-energy-concerns","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143921562","content_text":"Tesla CEO Elon Musk said Thursday that audits of renewable energy used by large Bitcoin miners could help assuage concerns about the cryptocurrency’s environmental impact.\n“Recent extreme energy usage growth could not possibly have been done so fast with renewables,” Musk said in response to a tweet from Ark Investment director of research Brett Winton about the potential that Bitcoin mining has to foster the wider use of solar and battery systems on the power grid. “This question is easily resolved if the top 10 hashing orgs just post audited numbers of renewable energyvsnot.”\n\nMusk,responding to another Twitter user who asked about ideal energy usage in crypto mining, implied that even his favored Dogecoin still had some room for improvement and said he favored a ratio of 0.1kWh, “calculated as total energy used by system divided by max transaction rate.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135793571,"gmtCreate":1622181905493,"gmtModify":1622181905493,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"整个行业已经崩溃了","listText":"整个行业已经崩溃了","text":"整个行业已经崩溃了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135793571","repostId":"1116530512","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":379066142,"gmtCreate":1618639528586,"gmtModify":1618639528586,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ark 在制造大量的泡沫，尤其是非常不喜欢她对加密货币无时无刻的鼓吹","listText":"ark 在制造大量的泡沫，尤其是非常不喜欢她对加密货币无时无刻的鼓吹","text":"ark 在制造大量的泡沫，尤其是非常不喜欢她对加密货币无时无刻的鼓吹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379066142","repostId":"2128985135","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2128985135","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1618620886,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2128985135?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-17 08:54","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"ARK buys another $64 mln in Coinbase shares, sells $99.5 mln of Tesla shares","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128985135","media":"Reuters","summary":"April 16 (Reuters) - Cathie Wood’s ARK funds bought more shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc    on Friday while selling shares of electric carmaker Tesla , according to the firm's da","content":"<html><body><p>April 16 (Reuters) - Cathie Wood’s ARK funds bought more shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc    on Friday while selling shares of electric carmaker Tesla</p><p> , according to the firm's daily trade summary.</p><p>   ARK on Friday bought 187,078 shares of Coinbase, which debuted on the Nasdaq earlier this week, in a purchase worth nearly $64 million at the day’s closing price of $342.</p><p>   It sold 134,541 shares of Tesla, valued at $99.5 million at Friday's close. Tesla is still by far the firm's biggest position by value on its major funds.</p><p>   The funds added to were the flagship ARK Innovation fund</p><p> , the Next Generation Internet ETF    and the Fintech Innovation ETF   .</p><p>   The Coinbase purchases add to the 341,186 shares purchased on Thursday and 749,205 purchased on Wednesday.</p><p>   ARK sold the Tesla shares from its flagship fund and its Next Generation Internet ETF.</p><p>   The bet on Coinbase gives ARK more indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies on top of its big bets on the likes of Tesla, which recently invested in bitcoin and said it would accept the cryptocurrency as payment for its cars.</p><p>   Celebrity fund manager Wood gained prominence last year among retail investors and managed to attract a steady pile of cash into her red-hot funds.</p><p> (Reporting by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Leslie Adler)</p><p>((Ira.Iosebashvili@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARK buys another $64 mln in Coinbase shares, sells $99.5 mln of Tesla shares</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nARK buys another $64 mln in Coinbase shares, sells $99.5 mln of Tesla shares\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-04-17 08:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>April 16 (Reuters) - Cathie Wood’s ARK funds bought more shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc    on Friday while selling shares of electric carmaker Tesla</p><p> , according to the firm's daily trade summary.</p><p>   ARK on Friday bought 187,078 shares of Coinbase, which debuted on the Nasdaq earlier this week, in a purchase worth nearly $64 million at the day’s closing price of $342.</p><p>   It sold 134,541 shares of Tesla, valued at $99.5 million at Friday's close. Tesla is still by far the firm's biggest position by value on its major funds.</p><p>   The funds added to were the flagship ARK Innovation fund</p><p> , the Next Generation Internet ETF    and the Fintech Innovation ETF   .</p><p>   The Coinbase purchases add to the 341,186 shares purchased on Thursday and 749,205 purchased on Wednesday.</p><p>   ARK sold the Tesla shares from its flagship fund and its Next Generation Internet ETF.</p><p>   The bet on Coinbase gives ARK more indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies on top of its big bets on the likes of Tesla, which recently invested in bitcoin and said it would accept the cryptocurrency as payment for its cars.</p><p>   Celebrity fund manager Wood gained prominence last year among retail investors and managed to attract a steady pile of cash into her red-hot funds.</p><p> (Reporting by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Leslie Adler)</p><p>((Ira.Iosebashvili@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2128985135","content_text":"April 16 (Reuters) - Cathie Wood’s ARK funds bought more shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc    on Friday while selling shares of electric carmaker Tesla , according to the firm's daily trade summary.   ARK on Friday bought 187,078 shares of Coinbase, which debuted on the Nasdaq earlier this week, in a purchase worth nearly $64 million at the day’s closing price of $342.   It sold 134,541 shares of Tesla, valued at $99.5 million at Friday's close. Tesla is still by far the firm's biggest position by value on its major funds.   The funds added to were the flagship ARK Innovation fund , the Next Generation Internet ETF    and the Fintech Innovation ETF   .   The Coinbase purchases add to the 341,186 shares purchased on Thursday and 749,205 purchased on Wednesday.   ARK sold the Tesla shares from its flagship fund and its Next Generation Internet ETF.   The bet on Coinbase gives ARK more indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies on top of its big bets on the likes of Tesla, which recently invested in bitcoin and said it would accept the cryptocurrency as payment for its cars.   Celebrity fund manager Wood gained prominence last year among retail investors and managed to attract a steady pile of cash into her red-hot funds. (Reporting by Ira Iosebashvili; Editing by Leslie Adler)((Ira.Iosebashvili@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839766262,"gmtCreate":1629182819256,"gmtModify":1629182819256,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","listText":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","text":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839766262","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>\n <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley noted that</p>\n<blockquote>\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Chart 1</p>\n<p>This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p>\n<p>The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p>\n<p><b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p>\n<p>The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p>\n<p>Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p>\n<p>Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 3</p>\n<p>Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p>\n<p><b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p>\n<p>Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p>\n<p>Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p>\n<p>Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p>\n<p><b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p>\n<p>Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p>\n<p>This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p>\n<p>TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p>\n<p>However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p>\n<blockquote>\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n</blockquote>\n<p>About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p>\n<p>Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p>\n<p>Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p>\n<p>Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 6</p>\n<p>Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Chart 7</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>\n <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>\n <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>\n <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 11:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170802548,"gmtCreate":1626417041784,"gmtModify":1626417041784,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊","text":"$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$ 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170802548","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135790027,"gmtCreate":1622181660769,"gmtModify":1622181660769,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个股票多于15块都是严重高估，根本不值","listText":"这个股票多于15块都是严重高估，根本不值","text":"这个股票多于15块都是严重高估，根本不值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135790027","repostId":"1157072297","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157072297","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622179098,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157072297?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-28 13:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Much Is Palantir Worth?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157072297","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryPLTR has a wide moat Gotham business, and its Foundry business has massive growth potential.T","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>PLTR has a wide moat Gotham business, and its Foundry business has massive growth potential.</li><li>The company continues to forego GAAP profitability today in order to invest aggressively for the long term.</li><li>What are PLTR shares worth today? We detail our full valuation model.</li></ul><p>Oneof our fewand our highest conviction tech investments, Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)has a wide moat Gotham (government) business and its Foundry (commercial) business has massive growth potential. Despite posting fat adjusted gross margins, the company continues to forego GAAP profitability today in order to invest aggressively for the long term.</p><p>What are PLTR shares worth today? In the following sections, we will attempt to give an estimate.</p><p><b>1. Qualitative Analysis</b></p><p>For a more thorough appraisal of the qualitative aspects of PLTR, please check out ourfull investment thesis. That said, in order to provide the proper context for our quantitative assumptions and analysis we will briefly outline our qualitative appraisal of the company here:</p><ul><li><i>Strong Government-Backed Moat</i></li></ul><p>PLTR's high-quality data analytics and artificial intelligence Gotham platform combine with its decades of successful partnership with US and US-aligned government agencies to give it a very strong competitive standing for winning additional government projects. As Big Data and A.I. grow in importance for national security in the years to come, we expect PLTR's share of the pie of government spending to only increase.</p><p>In fact, itsQ1 resultsshowed exactly that with total government revenue surging by 76% year-over-year and US government business growing by an even faster 83%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76849a1437b60ad615d46d63da06e109\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>source</i></p><p>The contracts it is winning include a 5-year contract worth up to $90 million to help protect and manage the U.S. nuclear stockpile, powering all 11 DoD combatant commands for major exercises, servicing other major defense contractors, and - most recently -expanding its Space Force partnership.</p><p>This robust growth should continue for the foreseeable future as their total government revenue is less than 10 basis points of total US defense spending and senior US government personnel remain thrilled with their product. As Space Force Colonel Krolikowski stated in the wake of the expanded Space Force partnership:</p><blockquote><i>I’m excited about this partnership and the work we are doing to provide better data-driven decision making to our leadership. Palantir’s technology and framework has truly accelerated our ability to remove data stovepipes throughout the community and create actionable knowledge</i></blockquote><ul><li><i>Accelerating Foundry Growth</i></li></ul><p>PLTR's other major platform - Foundry - is seeing accelerating growth in its pursuit of commercial contracts and it is investing aggressively in ensuring that momentum continues. In fact, PLTR expects that their Foundry business may one day become their largest source of revenue.</p><p>In Q1, US commercial revenue grew by 72% and overall revenue grew by 49% year-over-year fueled by 11 new commercial customers coming on board and 29% growth in revenue per customer. Q2 should see similarly strong growth, with management forecasting 43% year-over-year growth with 30%+ annual growth expected through 2025 as management is pursuing multiple strategic growth initiatives:</p><p>(1) Afree Foundry trialfor select companies to assist them with re-opening after COVID-19 and hopefully win their long-term business.</p><p>(2) Investing heavily in growing and enhancing their sales team by adding nearly 50 sales personnel in Q1 with the expectation of growing by over 100 by year-end.</p><p>(3) Buying equity in some of its smaller clients that it believes will be long-term winners while also creating a symbiotic relationship with them.</p><p>(4)Exploringways to play a role with Bitcoin and the broader emergence of cryptocurrency.</p><p>(5) Adapting their product and marketing to attract a wider range of businesses, thereby boosting their qualified pipeline by 2.5 times in the U.S. and U.K.</p><ul><li><i>Solid Balance Sheet</i></li></ul><p>With billions of dollars in cash on the balance sheet, minimal debt, and adjusted free cash flow positive, PLTR is well-capitalized and sufficiently liquid to continue investing aggressively in its growth initiatives.</p><ul><li><i>Strong Brain Trust</i></li></ul><p>Operating in a space where technical and innovative capabilities are the name of the game, PLTR is well-positioned to win given its ability to attract and retain the best and brightest minds in the industry.</p><p><b>2. Quantitative Analysis</b></p><p>Now that we have established that PLTR is a high-quality company in virtually every respect with strong growth momentum and a lengthy runway, let's dig into numbers to see if we can get a sense of how much it is actually worth.</p><p>The company is currently valued at an enterprise value of $38.4 billion as its market cap of $40.3 billion includes a substantial net cash position. The company is expected to generate ~$1.5 billion in revenue in 2021 and just over $1.9 billion in 2022. Meanwhile, its EBITDA is expected to come in at $363.2 million in 2021 and $508.3 million in 2022. By 2025, PLTR has an announced goal of achieving $4 billion in revenues.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5ac0eb66cdb91fcbb57a41107924119\" tg-width=\"448\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>source</i></p><p>They view their total addressable market as currently being ~$119 billion and we expect this to grow rapidly as the quantity and role of data and A.I. are increasing quickly and PLTR continues to invest in developing new capabilities which should expand its sphere of addressable operations over time.</p><p>Their government and commercial addressable markets are both roughly equivalent, and the U.S. government total addressable market is a whopping $26 billion currently. Given that we believe their US government business is by far their strongest, this is an important number for us to latch onto in our projections.</p><p>We believe that the US will continue to place an ever-increasing amount of trust in PLTR as it desperately strives to defeat China in the A.I. race over the next several decades. Seeing that PLTR has already won some extremely important contracts with the US government, we expect them to be the odds-on favorites to win a large portion of the US total addressable market in the years to come.</p><p>While we are optimistic that they will capture at least 25% of their current total addressable market from the U.S. government by the end of the decade and will see solid growth in their other business opportunities, they do face some stiff competition in the commercial space from companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and foreign governments - even if US-aligned - may be somewhat cautious of linking their critical government agencies to a US company.</p><p>As a result, we see them capturing a more conservative 5% of current total addressable market in each of these categories over the next decade (which is quite conservative given that these total addressable markets will likely grow significantly during that span). In fact, the global big data market isexpected to growat a CAGR of 22.4% through 2030, with the North American big data market expected to grow at a 15.6% CAGR and Europe's big data market expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.1%, so they would only need to capture only a few percentage points of the total addressable market at that point to reach $10+ billion in revenue.</p><p>Using these assumptions means that we expect their revenue to grow from ~$1.5 billion at year-end 2021 to ~$11 billion by the end of 2030. While this might sound ludicrous, we see little reason to expect their growth rate to slow after this year as they are making aggressive investments in their business and are only now starting to really ramp up their sales team while also partnering with vaunted sales teams at companies like IBM (IBM) and with Amazon's (AMZN) Web Services business to facilitate growth. To reach $11 billion by the end of 2030, they would only need to grow at an annualized 25% rate, which we believe is very doable given their aforementioned strengths and initiatives, particularly in the US government business, along with the fact that they are likely to not pay out any dividends or buy back shares over that period and instead continue investing aggressively in their business.</p><p>Now that we have arrived at a revenue number, let's look at the profitability potential.</p><p>PLTR demonstrated during Q1 that its operating profitability is improving rapidly. During Q1, they generated earnings-per-share of $0.04 as the adjusted gross margin expanded by 800 basis points year-over-year to 83% and the contribution margin soared by 1900 basis points to 60%.</p><p>As a result, adjusted operating income improved $133 million year-over-year, coming in at $117 million in Q1 2021 (adjusted operating margin of 34%). Adjusted free cash flow was $151 million in Q1, good for a 44% adjusted free cash flow margin.</p><p>While these numbers look fantastic as a 34% adjusted operating margin would imply ~$3.75 billion in operating income by 2030 which, given that they will likely still be growing by 20%+ annually at that point under our assumptions, would likely warrant a multiple of ~50x (depending on interest rates and overall macroeconomic conditions). As a result, the company would conservatively be worth ~$190 billion by 2030, making it a near 5x over the next 9 years (which would represent a ~20% CAGR to 2030). Under this assumption, PLTR should be worth an enterprise value of ~$85 billion today (which would represent a 9%-10% CAGR to 2030), which would put the shares at a fair value of between $45 and $50 today.</p><p>However, this model overlooks one major negative factor that makes the adjusted free cash flow numbers misleading: stock-based compensation. While we do not take issue with this management practice given that it is being used to attract and retain the best talent in the industry without draining the company's cash pile that it needs to invest aggressively to win long-term in the space, it is still important to account for its impact when modeling the company's valuation.</p><p>In Q1 2021, stock-based compensation and employer payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation totaled a whopping ~$230 million. While this figure will likely grow to some degree as the company continues to grow and add payroll, it will ultimately decline as a percentage of the total revenues as the company continues to grow. Stock-based compensation currently accounts for ~2.3% of the company's total equity valuation and we expect this to decline over time as the company will likely grow faster than its payroll.</p><p>Therefore, through 2030, we conservatively estimate average annual dilution of ~1.5% from stock-based compensation and estimate it will be at $2 billion annually by 2030. This would leave GAAP operating income at just $1.75 billion in 2030, and, at a 50x multiple would imply the company would be worth just $87.5 billion at that point, making it a mere 2.3x from its present value. Adding in the dilutive impact of 1.5% annualized stock-based compensation and the estimated per-share value in 2030 would be $44, making it a double over a 9-year period (i.e., just a mediocre ~8% CAGR).</p><p>As a result, it is reasonable to conclude that shares are currently fairly valued. However, at the same time, it is important to realize that there are two factors that will significantly impact this assessment:</p><p><i>(1) Operating Margin:</i>The company has significant momentum in improving its operating margins. As they continue to scale rapidly, there is a strong likelihood that operating margins will improve further. Of course, competition will also increase, so there will be pressure on gross margins. Ultimately, we expect them to reach an adjusted operating margin of 40% as rapid scaling should more than offset competitive pressures, especially in their government business, which should enjoy fatter margins than their narrower moat commercial business. This 600 basis point improvement alone would raise their estimated 2030 valuation by a whopping 37% and push their expected shareholder CAGR firmly into the double digits.</p><p><i>(2) Growth Rates:</i>We used somewhat conservative growth rate assumptions in our model as we do not want to bank on their commercial business becoming a powerhouse given that competition is likely to be stiff.</p><p>That said, all of that stock-based compensation is going towards attracting and retaining some of the brightest data analytics, machine learning, and software engineering minds, which should not be underestimated. As a result, we would not be shocked at all to see them gain better headway in the commercial market than our initial model assumes and therefore significantly outperform their 2025 and our 2030 revenue estimates.</p><p>While it is true that it is easier to sustain a high growth rate at their current (relatively) small size and that the bigger you scale the harder it is to sustain that growth rate, we also know that they are only know really trying to scale their sales team, they are reinvesting aggressively into their business, and the role of data, machine learning, and software is likely to explode exponentially in the coming decade, providing a massive tailwind to their growth.</p><p>While we assume a 25% annualized growth rate through 2030 from the present, if they can simply increase that to 30%, their revenue will be closer to $16 billion, which in turn would likely lead to even higher operating margins and immensely higher operating income, making their stock-based compensation even a smaller portion of the pie and their upside potential immensely higher than it is perceived to be today.</p><p>Of course, the downside risk is that their Foundry platform will fail to make any significant headway in the private sector, leading to dramatically declining growth rates and them having to continue leaning heavily on their government business. Such a scenario would lead to mediocre total returns as their revenue would likely only end up in the $8 billion range and - though their stock-based compensation would obviously be lower as well - their operating income would probably wind up being ~$1.5 billion, making the company worth only $75 billion, or presenting a mere mid-single digit CAGR through 2030 which would make it a rather unappealing comparative investment.</p><p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p>PLTR is a great company and is very likely to remain a mission-critical component of US government technical infrastructure for the foreseeable future. That alone gives the business significant stability concerning its future and will likely lead to strong growth.</p><p>However, stock-based compensation and lingering uncertainty about the long-term competitive strength of its Foundry platform are the main overhangs weighing on the stock right now. While we believe that the former overhang is a major key to positively resolving the latter uncertainty, only time will tell.</p><p>Based on our assumptions of 25%+ annualized revenue growth through 2030, 40% adjusted operating margins in 2030, and $2 billion in 2030 stock-based compensation, we expect the company to be worth at least 3x what it is today and generate ~12%-13% annualized returns over that period, making it a buy today and a strong buy at $20 or less.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Much Is Palantir Worth?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Much Is Palantir Worth?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 13:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4431750-how-much-is-palantir-worth><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPLTR has a wide moat Gotham business, and its Foundry business has massive growth potential.The company continues to forego GAAP profitability today in order to invest aggressively for the long...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4431750-how-much-is-palantir-worth\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4431750-how-much-is-palantir-worth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1157072297","content_text":"SummaryPLTR has a wide moat Gotham business, and its Foundry business has massive growth potential.The company continues to forego GAAP profitability today in order to invest aggressively for the long term.What are PLTR shares worth today? We detail our full valuation model.Oneof our fewand our highest conviction tech investments, Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)has a wide moat Gotham (government) business and its Foundry (commercial) business has massive growth potential. Despite posting fat adjusted gross margins, the company continues to forego GAAP profitability today in order to invest aggressively for the long term.What are PLTR shares worth today? In the following sections, we will attempt to give an estimate.1. Qualitative AnalysisFor a more thorough appraisal of the qualitative aspects of PLTR, please check out ourfull investment thesis. That said, in order to provide the proper context for our quantitative assumptions and analysis we will briefly outline our qualitative appraisal of the company here:Strong Government-Backed MoatPLTR's high-quality data analytics and artificial intelligence Gotham platform combine with its decades of successful partnership with US and US-aligned government agencies to give it a very strong competitive standing for winning additional government projects. As Big Data and A.I. grow in importance for national security in the years to come, we expect PLTR's share of the pie of government spending to only increase.In fact, itsQ1 resultsshowed exactly that with total government revenue surging by 76% year-over-year and US government business growing by an even faster 83%.sourceThe contracts it is winning include a 5-year contract worth up to $90 million to help protect and manage the U.S. nuclear stockpile, powering all 11 DoD combatant commands for major exercises, servicing other major defense contractors, and - most recently -expanding its Space Force partnership.This robust growth should continue for the foreseeable future as their total government revenue is less than 10 basis points of total US defense spending and senior US government personnel remain thrilled with their product. As Space Force Colonel Krolikowski stated in the wake of the expanded Space Force partnership:I’m excited about this partnership and the work we are doing to provide better data-driven decision making to our leadership. Palantir’s technology and framework has truly accelerated our ability to remove data stovepipes throughout the community and create actionable knowledgeAccelerating Foundry GrowthPLTR's other major platform - Foundry - is seeing accelerating growth in its pursuit of commercial contracts and it is investing aggressively in ensuring that momentum continues. In fact, PLTR expects that their Foundry business may one day become their largest source of revenue.In Q1, US commercial revenue grew by 72% and overall revenue grew by 49% year-over-year fueled by 11 new commercial customers coming on board and 29% growth in revenue per customer. Q2 should see similarly strong growth, with management forecasting 43% year-over-year growth with 30%+ annual growth expected through 2025 as management is pursuing multiple strategic growth initiatives:(1) Afree Foundry trialfor select companies to assist them with re-opening after COVID-19 and hopefully win their long-term business.(2) Investing heavily in growing and enhancing their sales team by adding nearly 50 sales personnel in Q1 with the expectation of growing by over 100 by year-end.(3) Buying equity in some of its smaller clients that it believes will be long-term winners while also creating a symbiotic relationship with them.(4)Exploringways to play a role with Bitcoin and the broader emergence of cryptocurrency.(5) Adapting their product and marketing to attract a wider range of businesses, thereby boosting their qualified pipeline by 2.5 times in the U.S. and U.K.Solid Balance SheetWith billions of dollars in cash on the balance sheet, minimal debt, and adjusted free cash flow positive, PLTR is well-capitalized and sufficiently liquid to continue investing aggressively in its growth initiatives.Strong Brain TrustOperating in a space where technical and innovative capabilities are the name of the game, PLTR is well-positioned to win given its ability to attract and retain the best and brightest minds in the industry.2. Quantitative AnalysisNow that we have established that PLTR is a high-quality company in virtually every respect with strong growth momentum and a lengthy runway, let's dig into numbers to see if we can get a sense of how much it is actually worth.The company is currently valued at an enterprise value of $38.4 billion as its market cap of $40.3 billion includes a substantial net cash position. The company is expected to generate ~$1.5 billion in revenue in 2021 and just over $1.9 billion in 2022. Meanwhile, its EBITDA is expected to come in at $363.2 million in 2021 and $508.3 million in 2022. By 2025, PLTR has an announced goal of achieving $4 billion in revenues.sourceThey view their total addressable market as currently being ~$119 billion and we expect this to grow rapidly as the quantity and role of data and A.I. are increasing quickly and PLTR continues to invest in developing new capabilities which should expand its sphere of addressable operations over time.Their government and commercial addressable markets are both roughly equivalent, and the U.S. government total addressable market is a whopping $26 billion currently. Given that we believe their US government business is by far their strongest, this is an important number for us to latch onto in our projections.We believe that the US will continue to place an ever-increasing amount of trust in PLTR as it desperately strives to defeat China in the A.I. race over the next several decades. Seeing that PLTR has already won some extremely important contracts with the US government, we expect them to be the odds-on favorites to win a large portion of the US total addressable market in the years to come.While we are optimistic that they will capture at least 25% of their current total addressable market from the U.S. government by the end of the decade and will see solid growth in their other business opportunities, they do face some stiff competition in the commercial space from companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and foreign governments - even if US-aligned - may be somewhat cautious of linking their critical government agencies to a US company.As a result, we see them capturing a more conservative 5% of current total addressable market in each of these categories over the next decade (which is quite conservative given that these total addressable markets will likely grow significantly during that span). In fact, the global big data market isexpected to growat a CAGR of 22.4% through 2030, with the North American big data market expected to grow at a 15.6% CAGR and Europe's big data market expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.1%, so they would only need to capture only a few percentage points of the total addressable market at that point to reach $10+ billion in revenue.Using these assumptions means that we expect their revenue to grow from ~$1.5 billion at year-end 2021 to ~$11 billion by the end of 2030. While this might sound ludicrous, we see little reason to expect their growth rate to slow after this year as they are making aggressive investments in their business and are only now starting to really ramp up their sales team while also partnering with vaunted sales teams at companies like IBM (IBM) and with Amazon's (AMZN) Web Services business to facilitate growth. To reach $11 billion by the end of 2030, they would only need to grow at an annualized 25% rate, which we believe is very doable given their aforementioned strengths and initiatives, particularly in the US government business, along with the fact that they are likely to not pay out any dividends or buy back shares over that period and instead continue investing aggressively in their business.Now that we have arrived at a revenue number, let's look at the profitability potential.PLTR demonstrated during Q1 that its operating profitability is improving rapidly. During Q1, they generated earnings-per-share of $0.04 as the adjusted gross margin expanded by 800 basis points year-over-year to 83% and the contribution margin soared by 1900 basis points to 60%.As a result, adjusted operating income improved $133 million year-over-year, coming in at $117 million in Q1 2021 (adjusted operating margin of 34%). Adjusted free cash flow was $151 million in Q1, good for a 44% adjusted free cash flow margin.While these numbers look fantastic as a 34% adjusted operating margin would imply ~$3.75 billion in operating income by 2030 which, given that they will likely still be growing by 20%+ annually at that point under our assumptions, would likely warrant a multiple of ~50x (depending on interest rates and overall macroeconomic conditions). As a result, the company would conservatively be worth ~$190 billion by 2030, making it a near 5x over the next 9 years (which would represent a ~20% CAGR to 2030). Under this assumption, PLTR should be worth an enterprise value of ~$85 billion today (which would represent a 9%-10% CAGR to 2030), which would put the shares at a fair value of between $45 and $50 today.However, this model overlooks one major negative factor that makes the adjusted free cash flow numbers misleading: stock-based compensation. While we do not take issue with this management practice given that it is being used to attract and retain the best talent in the industry without draining the company's cash pile that it needs to invest aggressively to win long-term in the space, it is still important to account for its impact when modeling the company's valuation.In Q1 2021, stock-based compensation and employer payroll taxes related to stock-based compensation totaled a whopping ~$230 million. While this figure will likely grow to some degree as the company continues to grow and add payroll, it will ultimately decline as a percentage of the total revenues as the company continues to grow. Stock-based compensation currently accounts for ~2.3% of the company's total equity valuation and we expect this to decline over time as the company will likely grow faster than its payroll.Therefore, through 2030, we conservatively estimate average annual dilution of ~1.5% from stock-based compensation and estimate it will be at $2 billion annually by 2030. This would leave GAAP operating income at just $1.75 billion in 2030, and, at a 50x multiple would imply the company would be worth just $87.5 billion at that point, making it a mere 2.3x from its present value. Adding in the dilutive impact of 1.5% annualized stock-based compensation and the estimated per-share value in 2030 would be $44, making it a double over a 9-year period (i.e., just a mediocre ~8% CAGR).As a result, it is reasonable to conclude that shares are currently fairly valued. However, at the same time, it is important to realize that there are two factors that will significantly impact this assessment:(1) Operating Margin:The company has significant momentum in improving its operating margins. As they continue to scale rapidly, there is a strong likelihood that operating margins will improve further. Of course, competition will also increase, so there will be pressure on gross margins. Ultimately, we expect them to reach an adjusted operating margin of 40% as rapid scaling should more than offset competitive pressures, especially in their government business, which should enjoy fatter margins than their narrower moat commercial business. This 600 basis point improvement alone would raise their estimated 2030 valuation by a whopping 37% and push their expected shareholder CAGR firmly into the double digits.(2) Growth Rates:We used somewhat conservative growth rate assumptions in our model as we do not want to bank on their commercial business becoming a powerhouse given that competition is likely to be stiff.That said, all of that stock-based compensation is going towards attracting and retaining some of the brightest data analytics, machine learning, and software engineering minds, which should not be underestimated. As a result, we would not be shocked at all to see them gain better headway in the commercial market than our initial model assumes and therefore significantly outperform their 2025 and our 2030 revenue estimates.While it is true that it is easier to sustain a high growth rate at their current (relatively) small size and that the bigger you scale the harder it is to sustain that growth rate, we also know that they are only know really trying to scale their sales team, they are reinvesting aggressively into their business, and the role of data, machine learning, and software is likely to explode exponentially in the coming decade, providing a massive tailwind to their growth.While we assume a 25% annualized growth rate through 2030 from the present, if they can simply increase that to 30%, their revenue will be closer to $16 billion, which in turn would likely lead to even higher operating margins and immensely higher operating income, making their stock-based compensation even a smaller portion of the pie and their upside potential immensely higher than it is perceived to be today.Of course, the downside risk is that their Foundry platform will fail to make any significant headway in the private sector, leading to dramatically declining growth rates and them having to continue leaning heavily on their government business. Such a scenario would lead to mediocre total returns as their revenue would likely only end up in the $8 billion range and - though their stock-based compensation would obviously be lower as well - their operating income would probably wind up being ~$1.5 billion, making the company worth only $75 billion, or presenting a mere mid-single digit CAGR through 2030 which would make it a rather unappealing comparative investment.Investor TakeawayPLTR is a great company and is very likely to remain a mission-critical component of US government technical infrastructure for the foreseeable future. That alone gives the business significant stability concerning its future and will likely lead to strong growth.However, stock-based compensation and lingering uncertainty about the long-term competitive strength of its Foundry platform are the main overhangs weighing on the stock right now. While we believe that the former overhang is a major key to positively resolving the latter uncertainty, only time will tell.Based on our assumptions of 25%+ annualized revenue growth through 2030, 40% adjusted operating margins in 2030, and $2 billion in 2030 stock-based compensation, we expect the company to be worth at least 3x what it is today and generate ~12%-13% annualized returns over that period, making it a buy today and a strong buy at $20 or less.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110924791,"gmtCreate":1622422675613,"gmtModify":1622422675613,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失","listText":"实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失","text":"实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110924791","repostId":"1181277246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181277246","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注消费领域的财经新媒体","home_visible":1,"media_name":"斑马消费","id":"1062589793","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a44abb8f6e4a7f9ab19581f07af619"},"pubTimestamp":1622419072,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181277246?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-31 07:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181277246","media":"斑马消费","summary":"2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。\n实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的理想汽车美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。\n只要","content":"<p>2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。</p>\n<p>只要2020年中爆发的社区团购烧钱大战，不以巨头们找到稳定增长与合理盈利的平衡而结束，这一波亏损便会持续下去。</p>\n<p>而且，在王兴“边界论”的指挥下，美团正在不断将新业务纳入到拼杀版图中来，比如最近开始崭露头角的团好货。<b>扩张无止境，战火永不停。</b></p>\n<p>持续的亏损、对手的围堵，都没能让王兴的战鼓歇下来，反垄断能让它停下指挥棒吗？</p>\n<p><b>一季度亏损48.46亿元</b></p>\n<p>5月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>披露2021年Q1业绩公告，公司收入370.16亿元，同比增长120.94%，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>即便剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，更能反映公司主营业务盈利情况的经调整亏损额，当期也达到38.92亿元。</p>\n<p><b>今年一季度，美团的营业收入增长率超过120%，创下公司上市以来单季度收入增长的最高纪录</b>，主要原因为公司三大业务均实现收入翻倍增长。其中增速最高的新业务及其他板块（主要为社区团购），收入同比增长了135.45%。</p>\n<p>但是，亏损也是来自这个板块。今年1-3月，公司餐饮外卖和到店、酒店及旅游，分别实现经营利润11.16亿元和27.48亿元，但扛不住新业务亏掉80.44亿元，导致公司整体净利润为负。</p>\n<p><b>对于仍处于成长期的美团来说，亏损一直是常态。</b></p>\n<p>2015年-2018年，公司净利润分别为-105.19亿元、-57.95亿元、-189.88亿元、-1154.93亿元。同样剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，公司经调整净利润分别为-59.14亿元、-53.53亿元、-28.53亿元、-85.17亿元。</p>\n<p>上市后的第一年，美团终于盈利了一回。2019年，公司净利润14.60亿元，经调整净利润22.70亿元。然而，这十几亿业绩，剔除投资收益等项目，相对于公司近千亿收入，只能是聊胜于无。</p>\n<p>2020年，公司进军社区团购，推出美团优选，行业陷入熟悉的烧钱大战之中。</p>\n<p>不过，美团最终却奇迹般地实现了盈利。去年，公司收入、净利润分别为1147.95亿元、47.08亿元。</p>\n<p>斑马消费梳理后发现，这主要是由于<b>公司金融投资的公允价值变动收益50亿元，以及其他收益净额32亿元。</b></p>\n<p>原来，美团投资的新能源汽车理想汽车，2020年7月美股上市，随后几个月股价飙升，最高价较发行价上涨了接近300%，该公司市值一度飙升至接近400亿美元左右。美团所持股份的价值也水涨船高。若剔除这些影响因素，公司仍然是巨亏的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35379da5b734064bbfc80ae81d50d115\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>王兴的无限战争</b></p>\n<p>美团王兴与字节跳动张一鸣均来自福建龙岩，2007年王兴创立饭否，张一鸣是其技术合伙人。两家公司的发展思路，也如出一辙。</p>\n<p>字节跳动依靠今日头条，陆续孵化出抖音、西瓜视频、悟空问答、懂车帝等产品；美团以起家的团购业务为核心，陆续拓展至外卖、酒店、出行、社区团购。现在独立成长的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01896\">猫眼娱乐</a>，就是从美团的电影票频道中孵化出来的。</p>\n<p>其中尤其以美团的裂变更为彻底，如今外卖、酒店这两大业务，都盖过了到店业务的风头。</p>\n<p>王兴像一位运筹帷幄的古代大将军，打下一座又一座城池，将之连成一片扩充势力范围后，再向更多更大的城池进攻。</p>\n<p>一方面，美团以现有的业务服务，来稳定现有客户群；另一方面，以用户规模为基础，开辟新业务，获取新用户，相辅相成。</p>\n<p>不过，整体而言，<b>美团的用户和商户增长速度，增长恐难以持续。</b></p>\n<p>2018年-2020年，美团交易用户数目增长率分别为29.3%、12.5%、13.3%，活跃商家数目增长率分别为32.1%、7.1%、10.1%。</p>\n<p>截止2021年3月31日的12个月，公司交易用户数目达到5.69亿，同比增长26.9%，活跃商家数目710万，同比增长16.9%。</p>\n<p>注意，2020年以来的新增用户，绝大部分来自社区团购、闪购、单车等新业务，仅有少量由外卖等传统业务贡献。当然最重要的是，<b>拉新的前提是烧钱</b>，新业务去年亏损108.55亿元，今年仅一季度就亏掉了80.44亿元。</p>\n<p>越是在用户增长见顶、拉新成本上升的时候，越需要加快新业务的裂变速度。</p>\n<p>除了我们熟知的上述业务，美团正在积极布局电商，团好货已经占据了美团APP的核心分区之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>和阿里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>苏宁，慌不慌？</p>\n<p>为了增加用户时长，美团有没有可能学支付宝和携程，布局内容？坐拥如此大的流量，大多为高频使用，美团有没有可能像B站和快手那样，上几个赚钱最快的游戏产品？</p>\n<p><b>美团真的没有边界吗？</b></p>\n<p>作为企业家中的思想家和战略家，王兴在江湖中流传最广的便是“边界论”。</p>\n<p>“万物其实是没有简单边界的，所以我不认为要给自己设限。<b>只要核心是清晰的——我们到底服务什么人？给他们提供什么服务？我们就会不断尝试各种业务。”</b></p>\n<p>理论上来说，只要坐拥海量用户，就可以不断地进行业务的多元化。比如说我们现在看到的，滴滴的社区团购、网易的养殖……都搞得有声有色。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/128c68d7e383dee6f01c979244187ee8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，美团真的可以无限扩张下去吗？</p>\n<p>当一家公司的业务足够庞杂，风险的积累往往超出想象。就以美团旗下的300万骑手而言，人们现在更关注骑手这个职业的收入与风险暴涨，系统与骑手的匹配，这都会无形中加大公司的投入。</p>\n<p>企业的战略平衡，最终落点都是资金。在一二级市场持续的输血下，即便连续多年巨额亏损，截止2021年3月底公司现金及现金等价物以及短期理财投资分别为178亿元和353亿元。</p>\n<p>面对社区团购、电商这一场又一场恶战，美团觉得这些钱可能还不够，4月底发公告准备通过发行可换股债券和新股，募资100亿美元。</p>\n<p>王兴不希望美团有边界，但是，<b>竞争对手们想用业务围堵的方式，把美团困在边界内。</b></p>\n<p>做生意，要把朋友搞得多多的，把敌人搞得少少的。</p>\n<p>而美团正相反。进军酒店，把几乎一统OTA天下的携程，重新拉回战场；推出美团打车，收购摩拜，挤压的是滴滴的市场；就连共享充电宝这个并不大的市场，三电一兽短兵相接，因为美团进入，预期格局大不一样……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196695de414cfc7dd66ff169a221180b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>拼多多、滴滴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等巨头相继加入社区团购大战，学美团不断拓展边界、通过线下业务转化线上流量之外，一个不得不提的出发点，就是围堵美团——因为社区团购与美团的既有业务和战略布局最贴近。</p>\n<p>好一招围魏救赵，亦或是围点打援。</p>\n<p>此前京东前高管评论京东分拆上市时说，“拆了省的以后被反垄断”。在本地生活领域业务几乎无所不包的美团，当下正面临这样的烦恼。</p>\n<p>4月26日，市场监管总局发布通知，依法对美团涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。</p>\n<p>短期来看，会罚多少钱？中长期来看，<b>是否会对美团的业务布局产生影响？王兴会不会就此重新梳理一下他的“边界论”？</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1062589793\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a44abb8f6e4a7f9ab19581f07af619);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">斑马消费 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-31 07:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。</p>\n<p>只要2020年中爆发的社区团购烧钱大战，不以巨头们找到稳定增长与合理盈利的平衡而结束，这一波亏损便会持续下去。</p>\n<p>而且，在王兴“边界论”的指挥下，美团正在不断将新业务纳入到拼杀版图中来，比如最近开始崭露头角的团好货。<b>扩张无止境，战火永不停。</b></p>\n<p>持续的亏损、对手的围堵，都没能让王兴的战鼓歇下来，反垄断能让它停下指挥棒吗？</p>\n<p><b>一季度亏损48.46亿元</b></p>\n<p>5月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>披露2021年Q1业绩公告，公司收入370.16亿元，同比增长120.94%，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>即便剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，更能反映公司主营业务盈利情况的经调整亏损额，当期也达到38.92亿元。</p>\n<p><b>今年一季度，美团的营业收入增长率超过120%，创下公司上市以来单季度收入增长的最高纪录</b>，主要原因为公司三大业务均实现收入翻倍增长。其中增速最高的新业务及其他板块（主要为社区团购），收入同比增长了135.45%。</p>\n<p>但是，亏损也是来自这个板块。今年1-3月，公司餐饮外卖和到店、酒店及旅游，分别实现经营利润11.16亿元和27.48亿元，但扛不住新业务亏掉80.44亿元，导致公司整体净利润为负。</p>\n<p><b>对于仍处于成长期的美团来说，亏损一直是常态。</b></p>\n<p>2015年-2018年，公司净利润分别为-105.19亿元、-57.95亿元、-189.88亿元、-1154.93亿元。同样剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，公司经调整净利润分别为-59.14亿元、-53.53亿元、-28.53亿元、-85.17亿元。</p>\n<p>上市后的第一年，美团终于盈利了一回。2019年，公司净利润14.60亿元，经调整净利润22.70亿元。然而，这十几亿业绩，剔除投资收益等项目，相对于公司近千亿收入，只能是聊胜于无。</p>\n<p>2020年，公司进军社区团购，推出美团优选，行业陷入熟悉的烧钱大战之中。</p>\n<p>不过，美团最终却奇迹般地实现了盈利。去年，公司收入、净利润分别为1147.95亿元、47.08亿元。</p>\n<p>斑马消费梳理后发现，这主要是由于<b>公司金融投资的公允价值变动收益50亿元，以及其他收益净额32亿元。</b></p>\n<p>原来，美团投资的新能源汽车理想汽车，2020年7月美股上市，随后几个月股价飙升，最高价较发行价上涨了接近300%，该公司市值一度飙升至接近400亿美元左右。美团所持股份的价值也水涨船高。若剔除这些影响因素，公司仍然是巨亏的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35379da5b734064bbfc80ae81d50d115\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>王兴的无限战争</b></p>\n<p>美团王兴与字节跳动张一鸣均来自福建龙岩，2007年王兴创立饭否，张一鸣是其技术合伙人。两家公司的发展思路，也如出一辙。</p>\n<p>字节跳动依靠今日头条，陆续孵化出抖音、西瓜视频、悟空问答、懂车帝等产品；美团以起家的团购业务为核心，陆续拓展至外卖、酒店、出行、社区团购。现在独立成长的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01896\">猫眼娱乐</a>，就是从美团的电影票频道中孵化出来的。</p>\n<p>其中尤其以美团的裂变更为彻底，如今外卖、酒店这两大业务，都盖过了到店业务的风头。</p>\n<p>王兴像一位运筹帷幄的古代大将军，打下一座又一座城池，将之连成一片扩充势力范围后，再向更多更大的城池进攻。</p>\n<p>一方面，美团以现有的业务服务，来稳定现有客户群；另一方面，以用户规模为基础，开辟新业务，获取新用户，相辅相成。</p>\n<p>不过，整体而言，<b>美团的用户和商户增长速度，增长恐难以持续。</b></p>\n<p>2018年-2020年，美团交易用户数目增长率分别为29.3%、12.5%、13.3%，活跃商家数目增长率分别为32.1%、7.1%、10.1%。</p>\n<p>截止2021年3月31日的12个月，公司交易用户数目达到5.69亿，同比增长26.9%，活跃商家数目710万，同比增长16.9%。</p>\n<p>注意，2020年以来的新增用户，绝大部分来自社区团购、闪购、单车等新业务，仅有少量由外卖等传统业务贡献。当然最重要的是，<b>拉新的前提是烧钱</b>，新业务去年亏损108.55亿元，今年仅一季度就亏掉了80.44亿元。</p>\n<p>越是在用户增长见顶、拉新成本上升的时候，越需要加快新业务的裂变速度。</p>\n<p>除了我们熟知的上述业务，美团正在积极布局电商，团好货已经占据了美团APP的核心分区之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>和阿里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>苏宁，慌不慌？</p>\n<p>为了增加用户时长，美团有没有可能学支付宝和携程，布局内容？坐拥如此大的流量，大多为高频使用，美团有没有可能像B站和快手那样，上几个赚钱最快的游戏产品？</p>\n<p><b>美团真的没有边界吗？</b></p>\n<p>作为企业家中的思想家和战略家，王兴在江湖中流传最广的便是“边界论”。</p>\n<p>“万物其实是没有简单边界的，所以我不认为要给自己设限。<b>只要核心是清晰的——我们到底服务什么人？给他们提供什么服务？我们就会不断尝试各种业务。”</b></p>\n<p>理论上来说，只要坐拥海量用户，就可以不断地进行业务的多元化。比如说我们现在看到的，滴滴的社区团购、网易的养殖……都搞得有声有色。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/128c68d7e383dee6f01c979244187ee8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，美团真的可以无限扩张下去吗？</p>\n<p>当一家公司的业务足够庞杂，风险的积累往往超出想象。就以美团旗下的300万骑手而言，人们现在更关注骑手这个职业的收入与风险暴涨，系统与骑手的匹配，这都会无形中加大公司的投入。</p>\n<p>企业的战略平衡，最终落点都是资金。在一二级市场持续的输血下，即便连续多年巨额亏损，截止2021年3月底公司现金及现金等价物以及短期理财投资分别为178亿元和353亿元。</p>\n<p>面对社区团购、电商这一场又一场恶战，美团觉得这些钱可能还不够，4月底发公告准备通过发行可换股债券和新股，募资100亿美元。</p>\n<p>王兴不希望美团有边界，但是，<b>竞争对手们想用业务围堵的方式，把美团困在边界内。</b></p>\n<p>做生意，要把朋友搞得多多的，把敌人搞得少少的。</p>\n<p>而美团正相反。进军酒店，把几乎一统OTA天下的携程，重新拉回战场；推出美团打车，收购摩拜，挤压的是滴滴的市场；就连共享充电宝这个并不大的市场，三电一兽短兵相接，因为美团进入，预期格局大不一样……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196695de414cfc7dd66ff169a221180b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>拼多多、滴滴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等巨头相继加入社区团购大战，学美团不断拓展边界、通过线下业务转化线上流量之外，一个不得不提的出发点，就是围堵美团——因为社区团购与美团的既有业务和战略布局最贴近。</p>\n<p>好一招围魏救赵，亦或是围点打援。</p>\n<p>此前京东前高管评论京东分拆上市时说，“拆了省的以后被反垄断”。在本地生活领域业务几乎无所不包的美团，当下正面临这样的烦恼。</p>\n<p>4月26日，市场监管总局发布通知，依法对美团涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。</p>\n<p>短期来看，会罚多少钱？中长期来看，<b>是否会对美团的业务布局产生影响？王兴会不会就此重新梳理一下他的“边界论”？</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","03690":"美团-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181277246","content_text":"2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。\n实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的理想汽车美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。\n只要2020年中爆发的社区团购烧钱大战，不以巨头们找到稳定增长与合理盈利的平衡而结束，这一波亏损便会持续下去。\n而且，在王兴“边界论”的指挥下，美团正在不断将新业务纳入到拼杀版图中来，比如最近开始崭露头角的团好货。扩张无止境，战火永不停。\n持续的亏损、对手的围堵，都没能让王兴的战鼓歇下来，反垄断能让它停下指挥棒吗？\n一季度亏损48.46亿元\n5月28日，美团-W披露2021年Q1业绩公告，公司收入370.16亿元，同比增长120.94%，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。\n即便剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，更能反映公司主营业务盈利情况的经调整亏损额，当期也达到38.92亿元。\n今年一季度，美团的营业收入增长率超过120%，创下公司上市以来单季度收入增长的最高纪录，主要原因为公司三大业务均实现收入翻倍增长。其中增速最高的新业务及其他板块（主要为社区团购），收入同比增长了135.45%。\n但是，亏损也是来自这个板块。今年1-3月，公司餐饮外卖和到店、酒店及旅游，分别实现经营利润11.16亿元和27.48亿元，但扛不住新业务亏掉80.44亿元，导致公司整体净利润为负。\n对于仍处于成长期的美团来说，亏损一直是常态。\n2015年-2018年，公司净利润分别为-105.19亿元、-57.95亿元、-189.88亿元、-1154.93亿元。同样剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，公司经调整净利润分别为-59.14亿元、-53.53亿元、-28.53亿元、-85.17亿元。\n上市后的第一年，美团终于盈利了一回。2019年，公司净利润14.60亿元，经调整净利润22.70亿元。然而，这十几亿业绩，剔除投资收益等项目，相对于公司近千亿收入，只能是聊胜于无。\n2020年，公司进军社区团购，推出美团优选，行业陷入熟悉的烧钱大战之中。\n不过，美团最终却奇迹般地实现了盈利。去年，公司收入、净利润分别为1147.95亿元、47.08亿元。\n斑马消费梳理后发现，这主要是由于公司金融投资的公允价值变动收益50亿元，以及其他收益净额32亿元。\n原来，美团投资的新能源汽车理想汽车，2020年7月美股上市，随后几个月股价飙升，最高价较发行价上涨了接近300%，该公司市值一度飙升至接近400亿美元左右。美团所持股份的价值也水涨船高。若剔除这些影响因素，公司仍然是巨亏的。\n\n王兴的无限战争\n美团王兴与字节跳动张一鸣均来自福建龙岩，2007年王兴创立饭否，张一鸣是其技术合伙人。两家公司的发展思路，也如出一辙。\n字节跳动依靠今日头条，陆续孵化出抖音、西瓜视频、悟空问答、懂车帝等产品；美团以起家的团购业务为核心，陆续拓展至外卖、酒店、出行、社区团购。现在独立成长的猫眼娱乐，就是从美团的电影票频道中孵化出来的。\n其中尤其以美团的裂变更为彻底，如今外卖、酒店这两大业务，都盖过了到店业务的风头。\n王兴像一位运筹帷幄的古代大将军，打下一座又一座城池，将之连成一片扩充势力范围后，再向更多更大的城池进攻。\n一方面，美团以现有的业务服务，来稳定现有客户群；另一方面，以用户规模为基础，开辟新业务，获取新用户，相辅相成。\n不过，整体而言，美团的用户和商户增长速度，增长恐难以持续。\n2018年-2020年，美团交易用户数目增长率分别为29.3%、12.5%、13.3%，活跃商家数目增长率分别为32.1%、7.1%、10.1%。\n截止2021年3月31日的12个月，公司交易用户数目达到5.69亿，同比增长26.9%，活跃商家数目710万，同比增长16.9%。\n注意，2020年以来的新增用户，绝大部分来自社区团购、闪购、单车等新业务，仅有少量由外卖等传统业务贡献。当然最重要的是，拉新的前提是烧钱，新业务去年亏损108.55亿元，今年仅一季度就亏掉了80.44亿元。\n越是在用户增长见顶、拉新成本上升的时候，越需要加快新业务的裂变速度。\n除了我们熟知的上述业务，美团正在积极布局电商，团好货已经占据了美团APP的核心分区之一，拼多多和阿里京东苏宁，慌不慌？\n为了增加用户时长，美团有没有可能学支付宝和携程，布局内容？坐拥如此大的流量，大多为高频使用，美团有没有可能像B站和快手那样，上几个赚钱最快的游戏产品？\n美团真的没有边界吗？\n作为企业家中的思想家和战略家，王兴在江湖中流传最广的便是“边界论”。\n“万物其实是没有简单边界的，所以我不认为要给自己设限。只要核心是清晰的——我们到底服务什么人？给他们提供什么服务？我们就会不断尝试各种业务。”\n理论上来说，只要坐拥海量用户，就可以不断地进行业务的多元化。比如说我们现在看到的，滴滴的社区团购、网易的养殖……都搞得有声有色。\n\n但是，美团真的可以无限扩张下去吗？\n当一家公司的业务足够庞杂，风险的积累往往超出想象。就以美团旗下的300万骑手而言，人们现在更关注骑手这个职业的收入与风险暴涨，系统与骑手的匹配，这都会无形中加大公司的投入。\n企业的战略平衡，最终落点都是资金。在一二级市场持续的输血下，即便连续多年巨额亏损，截止2021年3月底公司现金及现金等价物以及短期理财投资分别为178亿元和353亿元。\n面对社区团购、电商这一场又一场恶战，美团觉得这些钱可能还不够，4月底发公告准备通过发行可换股债券和新股，募资100亿美元。\n王兴不希望美团有边界，但是，竞争对手们想用业务围堵的方式，把美团困在边界内。\n做生意，要把朋友搞得多多的，把敌人搞得少少的。\n而美团正相反。进军酒店，把几乎一统OTA天下的携程，重新拉回战场；推出美团打车，收购摩拜，挤压的是滴滴的市场；就连共享充电宝这个并不大的市场，三电一兽短兵相接，因为美团进入，预期格局大不一样……\n\n拼多多、滴滴、阿里巴巴等巨头相继加入社区团购大战，学美团不断拓展边界、通过线下业务转化线上流量之外，一个不得不提的出发点，就是围堵美团——因为社区团购与美团的既有业务和战略布局最贴近。\n好一招围魏救赵，亦或是围点打援。\n此前京东前高管评论京东分拆上市时说，“拆了省的以后被反垄断”。在本地生活领域业务几乎无所不包的美团，当下正面临这样的烦恼。\n4月26日，市场监管总局发布通知，依法对美团涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。\n短期来看，会罚多少钱？中长期来看，是否会对美团的业务布局产生影响？王兴会不会就此重新梳理一下他的“边界论”？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390414056,"gmtCreate":1605836827075,"gmtModify":1703839995389,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TT\">$Trane Technologies PLC(TT)$</a> 昨天收盘前进了1000股TT， 看看未来一周走势如何","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TT\">$Trane Technologies PLC(TT)$</a> 昨天收盘前进了1000股TT， 看看未来一周走势如何","text":"$Trane Technologies PLC(TT)$ 昨天收盘前进了1000股TT， 看看未来一周走势如何","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390414056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1760,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866999903,"gmtCreate":1632718286202,"gmtModify":1632718506955,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"坐看看空美光的被打脸","listText":"坐看看空美光的被打脸","text":"坐看看空美光的被打脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866999903","repostId":"2170645634","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170645634","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1632713105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170645634?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 11:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170645634","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　美光科技将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。　　该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。　　在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。　　Zacks予美光科技的评级为4（卖出），根据模型，美光本季度的收益可能不会超过预期。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>（MU.US）将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。 Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。</p>\n<p>该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893e998d1767599e575186603826c2d7\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>需要考虑的因素</p>\n<p>在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。</p>\n<p>疫情期间的远程工作和在线学习趋势也促进了对云存储的需求。 此外，封锁促进了全球在线和电子商务服务的使用，迫使数据中心运营商增加容量，以适应云服务的需求激增。 这些因素都可能提高美光在本季度的营收。</p>\n<p>预计第四季度的云计算、图形、个人电脑和笔记本电脑、5G和汽车市场的DRAM Bit出货量稳步上升。</p>\n<p>不过，利润率较低的 NAND产品的占比上升，加上内存价格较低且制造成本难以下降，预计将使利润率吃紧。</p>\n<p>此外，更高的预审费用和人工费用可能对美光公司第四季度的业绩产生负面影响。 在第二季度的财报电话会议上，该公司指出，由于预审费用和人工费用的增加，预计2021财年下半年的运营费用将增加。</p>\n<p>另外，由于恢复加薪，预计第四季度的运营费用将大幅增加。 这可能会损害季度利润率和盈利能力。</p>\n<p>Zacks予美光科技的评级为4（卖出），根据模型，美光本季度的收益可能不会超过预期。</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-27 11:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-27/doc-iktzscyx6559050.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美光科技（MU.US）将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。 Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。\n该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。\n\n需要考虑的因素\n在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-27/doc-iktzscyx6559050.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b81c0c0111c68e734ad1f1bf2673e76","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-27/doc-iktzscyx6559050.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170645634","content_text":"美光科技（MU.US）将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。 Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。\n该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。\n\n需要考虑的因素\n在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。\n疫情期间的远程工作和在线学习趋势也促进了对云存储的需求。 此外，封锁促进了全球在线和电子商务服务的使用，迫使数据中心运营商增加容量，以适应云服务的需求激增。 这些因素都可能提高美光在本季度的营收。\n预计第四季度的云计算、图形、个人电脑和笔记本电脑、5G和汽车市场的DRAM Bit出货量稳步上升。\n不过，利润率较低的 NAND产品的占比上升，加上内存价格较低且制造成本难以下降，预计将使利润率吃紧。\n此外，更高的预审费用和人工费用可能对美光公司第四季度的业绩产生负面影响。 在第二季度的财报电话会议上，该公司指出，由于预审费用和人工费用的增加，预计2021财年下半年的运营费用将增加。\n另外，由于恢复加薪，预计第四季度的运营费用将大幅增加。 这可能会损害季度利润率和盈利能力。\nZacks予美光科技的评级为4（卖出），根据模型，美光本季度的收益可能不会超过预期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140050708,"gmtCreate":1625620686804,"gmtModify":1625620686804,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？","text":"$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$ 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140050708","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":131071561,"gmtCreate":1621818968853,"gmtModify":1621818968853,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"木头姐感觉为了她的etf 已经开始胡言乱语，出卖灵魂了","listText":"木头姐感觉为了她的etf 已经开始胡言乱语，出卖灵魂了","text":"木头姐感觉为了她的etf 已经开始胡言乱语，出卖灵魂了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131071561","repostId":"1119299095","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119299095","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1621814108,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119299095?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-24 07:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood says deflation will boost growth stocks next, buys more Coinbase","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119299095","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"ARK Investment Management chief Cathie Wood says in ablogthat deflation should be high up on the lis","content":"<p>ARK Investment Management chief Cathie Wood says in ablogthat deflation should be high up on the list ofeconomic recovery concerns, rather than inflation, with a change of much-weaker-than-expected nominal GDP growth.</p>\n<p>That, in turn, should set the stage for the next leg up in innovation stocks that have underperformed this year as cash rotated to value, Wood argues.</p>\n<p>Year to date, the flagship ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK)&nbsp;is&nbsp;down 14.4%, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKW)is&nbsp;off 10.8%, the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)is&nbsp;down 4%&nbsp;and the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF(BATS:ARKG)has&nbsp;lost 16%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235b2c6bd56cbcbe94edc6cee0afa5b8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"></p>\n<p>\"Understandably, given the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in the global economy, most economists and strategists are weighing the odds of inflation, but we are focused on the risks of deflation, some but not all of which would be bad news,\" Wood writes.</p>\n<p>The bad deflation would come from \"short-term oriented, risk-averse shareholders,\" singed by the Financial Crisis and tech and telecom bubbles, that force companies to concentrate too much on buybacks, dividends and boosting earnings at the expense of innovation, she says.</p>\n<p>\"If we are correct in our assessment that the risk to the outlook is deflation, not inflation, then nominal GDP growth is likely to be much lower than expected, suggesting that scarce double-digit growth opportunities will be rewarded accordingly,\" Wood concludes. \"Growth stocks in general and innovation-driven stocks in particular should the prime beneficiaries.\"</p>\n<p><b>Latest trades.</b>ARK continues to load up on Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN), which fell more than 13% this past week amid the crypto selloff.</p>\n<p>It bought 223,181 shares for ARKK and ARKW, adding to the more than$1B in shares it already owns.</p>\n<p>Wood said this past week Bitcoin (BTC-USD) can still go to $500K andalso gave her take on why Elon Musk made an about-face in accepting Bitcoin to buy Teslas.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ebb081d502bbd920bfcb9a8fc34f304\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"855\"></p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood says deflation will boost growth stocks next, buys more Coinbase</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood says deflation will boost growth stocks next, buys more Coinbase\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-24 07:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3699291-inflation-cathie-wood-makes-the-case-for-deflation-boosting-growth-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ARK Investment Management chief Cathie Wood says in ablogthat deflation should be high up on the list ofeconomic recovery concerns, rather than inflation, with a change of much-weaker-than-expected ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3699291-inflation-cathie-wood-makes-the-case-for-deflation-boosting-growth-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3699291-inflation-cathie-wood-makes-the-case-for-deflation-boosting-growth-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1119299095","content_text":"ARK Investment Management chief Cathie Wood says in ablogthat deflation should be high up on the list ofeconomic recovery concerns, rather than inflation, with a change of much-weaker-than-expected nominal GDP growth.\nThat, in turn, should set the stage for the next leg up in innovation stocks that have underperformed this year as cash rotated to value, Wood argues.\nYear to date, the flagship ARK Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKK) is down 14.4%, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKW)is off 10.8%, the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF(NYSEARCA:ARKF)is down 4% and the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF(BATS:ARKG)has lost 16%.\n\n\"Understandably, given the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus in the global economy, most economists and strategists are weighing the odds of inflation, but we are focused on the risks of deflation, some but not all of which would be bad news,\" Wood writes.\nThe bad deflation would come from \"short-term oriented, risk-averse shareholders,\" singed by the Financial Crisis and tech and telecom bubbles, that force companies to concentrate too much on buybacks, dividends and boosting earnings at the expense of innovation, she says.\n\"If we are correct in our assessment that the risk to the outlook is deflation, not inflation, then nominal GDP growth is likely to be much lower than expected, suggesting that scarce double-digit growth opportunities will be rewarded accordingly,\" Wood concludes. \"Growth stocks in general and innovation-driven stocks in particular should the prime beneficiaries.\"\nLatest trades.ARK continues to load up on Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN), which fell more than 13% this past week amid the crypto selloff.\nIt bought 223,181 shares for ARKK and ARKW, adding to the more than$1B in shares it already owns.\nWood said this past week Bitcoin (BTC-USD) can still go to $500K andalso gave her take on why Elon Musk made an about-face in accepting Bitcoin to buy Teslas.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694747183,"gmtCreate":1642141110744,"gmtModify":1642141810534,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"机构用心险恶，12美元？ 卖废铜烂铁都不止这个价，希望市场狠狠打脸这些缺德的分析师","listText":"机构用心险恶，12美元？ 卖废铜烂铁都不止这个价，希望市场狠狠打脸这些缺德的分析师","text":"机构用心险恶，12美元？ 卖废铜烂铁都不止这个价，希望市场狠狠打脸这些缺德的分析师","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694747183","repostId":"2203979449","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607690055,"gmtCreate":1639530169644,"gmtModify":1639530169644,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"木头姐已经成了笑话，还通缩？","listText":"木头姐已经成了笑话，还通缩？","text":"木头姐已经成了笑话，还通缩？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607690055","repostId":"2191957382","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607030202,"gmtCreate":1639454002762,"gmtModify":1639454002762,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"木头姐的操作 是最佳反向指标","listText":"木头姐的操作 是最佳反向指标","text":"木头姐的操作 是最佳反向指标","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607030202","repostId":"2191788938","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2191788938","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"凤凰网港股","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网港股","id":"1039806269","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6fb647077f1ce46dc341fc35c26e817"},"pubTimestamp":1639451412,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2191788938?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"传ARK基金减持辉瑞(PFE)及亚马逊(AMZN)等股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2191788938","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"凤凰网港股|据悉，“木头姐”凯西·伍德旗下ARK基金减持辉瑞(PFE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Meta Platforms(FB)，增持UiPath(PATH)、Robinhood(HOOD)、Nu Holdings(NU)。","content":"<html><body><p>凤凰网港股|据悉，“木头姐”凯西·伍德旗下ARK基金减持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>(PFE)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>(FB)，增持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">UiPath</a>(PATH)、Robinhood(HOOD)、Nu Holdings(NU)。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>传ARK基金减持辉瑞(PFE)及亚马逊(AMZN)等股</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n传ARK基金减持辉瑞(PFE)及亚马逊(AMZN)等股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1039806269\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6fb647077f1ce46dc341fc35c26e817);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-14 11:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>凤凰网港股|据悉，“木头姐”凯西·伍德旗下ARK基金减持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>(PFE)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>(FB)，增持<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PATH\">UiPath</a>(PATH)、Robinhood(HOOD)、Nu Holdings(NU)。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51edcbed4cc4bf7f4b7ca9a4a8cb859d","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4007":"制药","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4544":"ARK ETF合集","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","PFE":"辉瑞","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"http://hknews.szfuit.com/newRssInfo/feed?original_id=ec736e00794bd6669a8bd7fee4956b01","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2191788938","content_text":"凤凰网港股|据悉，“木头姐”凯西·伍德旗下ARK基金减持辉瑞(PFE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Meta Platforms(FB)，增持UiPath(PATH)、Robinhood(HOOD)、Nu Holdings(NU)。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605100876,"gmtCreate":1639124034011,"gmtModify":1639124034011,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"贾骗子也要穷途末路了","listText":"贾骗子也要穷途末路了","text":"贾骗子也要穷途末路了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605100876","repostId":"2190400476","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190400476","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639121440,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190400476?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"8年未交付一辆车，法拉第未来是否还有未来？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190400476","media":"老虎谈股权激励","summary":"FF累计亏损约28亿美元，但FF91量产计划不变。","content":"<p>作者：董雯</p>\n<p>2017年，贾跃亭一手创建的法拉第未来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future</a>(以下简称FF) 首款量产车型FF91发布。2020年末，FF91称已获得超过 1.4 万辆订单。</p>\n<p>今年7月22日，FF在纳斯达克挂牌上市，贾跃亭迎来了高光时刻，并表示要在一年之内将首批FF91电动车保质保量地交付到消费者手中。</p>\n<p>那时大家对贾跃亭又多了一份期待，不过最近，贾总貌似又遇到了些麻烦事。</p>\n<p><b>累计亏损约28亿美元</b></p>\n<p>美国东部时间12月7日，FF召开电话会议，透露了最新的企业进展。FF预计Q3经营亏损将增至约1.43亿美元，净亏损则增至约2.8亿美元。对比下，2020年Q3的营业亏损和净亏损分别为约1800万美元和3300万美元。</p>\n<p>产品方面，FF全球 CEO 毕福康（Carsten Breitfeld）表示“（FF）第一辆车已经开始生产。”据其介绍称，目前，FF工厂已经完成了设备安装，也已经获得了试生产批准，汉福德工厂具备预生产资格。距离批量生产更近了一步。</p>\n<p>对于未来，毕福康称相信有足够的资金来完成 FF91，新车仍然计划在2022年7月推出。</p>\n<p>据老虎ESOP整理，自FF成立以来，预计累计亏损约28亿美元，公司预计未来或将继续亏损。另外，在不久前FF还传出了强制退市的传闻。</p>\n<p>11月26日，FF收到了一份来自美国证券交易委员会发出的退市警示函。随后FF发布澄清说明，由于公司未能及时提交季度收益报告，FF被要求在60天内提交截至2021年9月30日的季报，否则可能被要求退市。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/999526f711b101b335ce8ef827ea22b8\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"711\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>彼时，FF解释称之所以未按时提交财报，主要是受到了美国投资机构不准确披露指控的影响。</p>\n<p>2021年10月，美国投资机构J Capital Research发布了一份28页的关于FF的做空报告。</p>\n<p>在报告的开头，J Capital Research 直指FF一直被大家诟病的几个问题，“经过8年的经营，FF公司未能交付一辆汽车并再次表示‘明年交付’，此外公司违背了在美国及中国五个地方建厂的承诺，对于第六个工厂建设也一再推迟。”</p>\n<p>而对于做空机构的报告，贾跃亭认为其言论是“冷饭热炒，无稽之谈”。FF也表示，公司自上市之后在产品力提升、产品测试、供应链、生产制造、销售、业务拓展等领域已取得了重大进展，且有信心在2022年7月按时交付FF 91。</p>\n<p><b>亏损成造车常态</b></p>\n<p>自FF上市之日起，其股票价格表现并不优秀。截至12月8日，FF的股价已经从上市首日的收盘价每股13.98美元，总市值约45.11亿美元，跌至股价仅剩5.66美元，市值18.36亿美元。不到五个月的时间市值缩水近60%。</p>\n<p>据统计，FF至今尚未产生任何收入，2019年亏损1.42亿美元，2020年亏损1.47亿美元。</p>\n<p>不过话说回来，造车本就是门烧钱的生意，亏损可以说是造车新势力的常态。</p>\n<p>据老虎ESOP整理，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车2020年的净亏损达到了56亿元，同期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>的亏损也达到了27亿元。靠融资生存也是互联网造车的通行做法。</p>\n<p>根据今年年初企查查的一份《近十年新能源汽车投融资数据报告》显示，FF公司自成立以来共披露了8次融资事件，融资总金额达309.6亿元人民币。在国内新能源汽车品牌中居行业第二位，而排名第一的蔚来汽车，融资金额达327.8亿元人民币。</p>\n<p>据FF预估，未来还将需要约15亿美元的额外资金。预计2024年实现盈利和正现金流。</p>\n<p>不过量产确实是FF的一块心病。FF公司虽已成立数年，但其一直没有车型正式上市。相比之下，国内“造车新势力”的步伐就走得更快。</p>\n<p>今年11月，首次出现了4家国内造车新势力交付量突破1万辆的市场局面。小鹏、蔚来、理想、哪吒分别交付了15613辆、10878辆、13485辆、10013辆新能源汽车。</p>\n<p>面对着国内这些造车新势力持续走高的股价和稳定增长的交付量，FF耗时了八年仍然没有跨过量产的门槛，确实让人为FF汽车的未来捏了一把汗。</p>\n<p>当然FF也公布了自己的量产日期，早在今年3月份就提到将在完成SPAC借壳上市后约12个月交付FF91车辆。</p>\n<p>也就是说按照计划，顺利的话最晚在明年8月份贾跃亭就可以真正迎来FF新车的量产。</p>\n<p>所以，对于目前的FF和贾跃亭来说，明年8月份前法拉第未来顺利量产才是最大的目标，如果明年能顺利量产，一切质疑自然会不攻自破。</p>\n<p>不过目前新能源汽车行业已经进入到了一个群雄逐鹿的时代，一方面来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的打压；另一方面是国内造车新势力的崛起，国内传统车企不断推出高端新能源品牌，或将旗下新能源车品牌独立运营。再加上一众崭新“面孔”的纷纷涌入，使得新能源汽车市场的竞争已经异常激烈。</p>\n<p>如此看来，竞争激烈的市场状况下，如果FF91能够如期上市，也同样面临很大的压力。</p>\n<p><b>FF共发布五期股权激励计划</b></p>\n<p>尽管面临种种财务困顿，FF对于团队的股权激励仍然非常重视。在贾跃亭进行个人破产重组时，FF也表示未来仍将继续向员工提供基于股权的报酬激励。</p>\n<p>据老虎ESOP梳理，2015 年，FF实施了全员股权激励计划，许诺让股权激励真正覆盖全体员工。2018年重修计划，更名“2018 股权计划”，向员工、董事和顾问授予3亿A类普通股奖励。</p>\n<p>2019年5月2日，FF实施了短期激励计划，也叫做“STI方案”，向员工、董事和顾问授予最多1亿B类普通股的奖励。之后，为激励管理人员，贾跃亭参考<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、咨询行业的合伙制度，通过FF GP以及其他三家中间控股公司实施了FF Intelligent 合伙计划，合伙人以0.50 美元的单价，认购FF GP 的股权。</p>\n<p>2020年，为了激励和奖励重组债务人实现法拉第集团的战略目标，FF采用管理层激励股权计划，该计划命名“未来股权激励计划”。</p>\n<p>2021年，FF通过了“2021年股权激励计划”，该计划将保留4957.36万股股份用于股权激励。</p>\n<p><b>总 结</b></p>\n<p>目前FF91量产在即，毕竟造车不易，梦想可贵，还是多给贾总一些耐心。至于未来FF91有什么优势，能否在竞争如此激烈的新能源汽车市场生存下去，我们拭目以待吧。</p>\n<p>本文数据来源于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>、界面新闻、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经等。</p>\n<p>本文来自微信公众号“老虎ESOP股权激励”（ID:TigerESOP），作者：董雯，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>经授权发布。</p>","source":"lsy1639123023242","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>8年未交付一辆车，法拉第未来是否还有未来？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n8年未交付一辆车，法拉第未来是否还有未来？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-10 15:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTEzNDE1NQ==&mid=2247497126&idx=1&sn=4d859b69d86e31bf5ff4bfc54572db78&chksm=9046bd02a73134140a1edb1143131c028f3cd98430074ca1d6e0f4de55e9d197158b3121a4d1&token=1147285743&lang=zh_CN#rd><strong>老虎谈股权激励</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：董雯\n2017年，贾跃亭一手创建的法拉第未来Faraday Future(以下简称FF) 首款量产车型FF91发布。2020年末，FF91称已获得超过 1.4 万辆订单。\n今年7月22日，FF在纳斯达克挂牌上市，贾跃亭迎来了高光时刻，并表示要在一年之内将首批FF91电动车保质保量地交付到消费者手中。\n那时大家对贾跃亭又多了一份期待，不过最近，贾总貌似又遇到了些麻烦事。\n累计亏损约28亿美元\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTEzNDE1NQ==&mid=2247497126&idx=1&sn=4d859b69d86e31bf5ff4bfc54572db78&chksm=9046bd02a73134140a1edb1143131c028f3cd98430074ca1d6e0f4de55e9d197158b3121a4d1&token=1147285743&lang=zh_CN#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ac86bdab506d9898920e00d5d818b2","relate_stocks":{"BK4109":"特种化学制品","FF":"FutureFuel Corporation"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA5NTEzNDE1NQ==&mid=2247497126&idx=1&sn=4d859b69d86e31bf5ff4bfc54572db78&chksm=9046bd02a73134140a1edb1143131c028f3cd98430074ca1d6e0f4de55e9d197158b3121a4d1&token=1147285743&lang=zh_CN#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190400476","content_text":"作者：董雯\n2017年，贾跃亭一手创建的法拉第未来Faraday Future(以下简称FF) 首款量产车型FF91发布。2020年末，FF91称已获得超过 1.4 万辆订单。\n今年7月22日，FF在纳斯达克挂牌上市，贾跃亭迎来了高光时刻，并表示要在一年之内将首批FF91电动车保质保量地交付到消费者手中。\n那时大家对贾跃亭又多了一份期待，不过最近，贾总貌似又遇到了些麻烦事。\n累计亏损约28亿美元\n美国东部时间12月7日，FF召开电话会议，透露了最新的企业进展。FF预计Q3经营亏损将增至约1.43亿美元，净亏损则增至约2.8亿美元。对比下，2020年Q3的营业亏损和净亏损分别为约1800万美元和3300万美元。\n产品方面，FF全球 CEO 毕福康（Carsten Breitfeld）表示“（FF）第一辆车已经开始生产。”据其介绍称，目前，FF工厂已经完成了设备安装，也已经获得了试生产批准，汉福德工厂具备预生产资格。距离批量生产更近了一步。\n对于未来，毕福康称相信有足够的资金来完成 FF91，新车仍然计划在2022年7月推出。\n据老虎ESOP整理，自FF成立以来，预计累计亏损约28亿美元，公司预计未来或将继续亏损。另外，在不久前FF还传出了强制退市的传闻。\n11月26日，FF收到了一份来自美国证券交易委员会发出的退市警示函。随后FF发布澄清说明，由于公司未能及时提交季度收益报告，FF被要求在60天内提交截至2021年9月30日的季报，否则可能被要求退市。\n\n彼时，FF解释称之所以未按时提交财报，主要是受到了美国投资机构不准确披露指控的影响。\n2021年10月，美国投资机构J Capital Research发布了一份28页的关于FF的做空报告。\n在报告的开头，J Capital Research 直指FF一直被大家诟病的几个问题，“经过8年的经营，FF公司未能交付一辆汽车并再次表示‘明年交付’，此外公司违背了在美国及中国五个地方建厂的承诺，对于第六个工厂建设也一再推迟。”\n而对于做空机构的报告，贾跃亭认为其言论是“冷饭热炒，无稽之谈”。FF也表示，公司自上市之后在产品力提升、产品测试、供应链、生产制造、销售、业务拓展等领域已取得了重大进展，且有信心在2022年7月按时交付FF 91。\n亏损成造车常态\n自FF上市之日起，其股票价格表现并不优秀。截至12月8日，FF的股价已经从上市首日的收盘价每股13.98美元，总市值约45.11亿美元，跌至股价仅剩5.66美元，市值18.36亿美元。不到五个月的时间市值缩水近60%。\n据统计，FF至今尚未产生任何收入，2019年亏损1.42亿美元，2020年亏损1.47亿美元。\n不过话说回来，造车本就是门烧钱的生意，亏损可以说是造车新势力的常态。\n据老虎ESOP整理，蔚来汽车2020年的净亏损达到了56亿元，同期小鹏汽车的亏损也达到了27亿元。靠融资生存也是互联网造车的通行做法。\n根据今年年初企查查的一份《近十年新能源汽车投融资数据报告》显示，FF公司自成立以来共披露了8次融资事件，融资总金额达309.6亿元人民币。在国内新能源汽车品牌中居行业第二位，而排名第一的蔚来汽车，融资金额达327.8亿元人民币。\n据FF预估，未来还将需要约15亿美元的额外资金。预计2024年实现盈利和正现金流。\n不过量产确实是FF的一块心病。FF公司虽已成立数年，但其一直没有车型正式上市。相比之下，国内“造车新势力”的步伐就走得更快。\n今年11月，首次出现了4家国内造车新势力交付量突破1万辆的市场局面。小鹏、蔚来、理想、哪吒分别交付了15613辆、10878辆、13485辆、10013辆新能源汽车。\n面对着国内这些造车新势力持续走高的股价和稳定增长的交付量，FF耗时了八年仍然没有跨过量产的门槛，确实让人为FF汽车的未来捏了一把汗。\n当然FF也公布了自己的量产日期，早在今年3月份就提到将在完成SPAC借壳上市后约12个月交付FF91车辆。\n也就是说按照计划，顺利的话最晚在明年8月份贾跃亭就可以真正迎来FF新车的量产。\n所以，对于目前的FF和贾跃亭来说，明年8月份前法拉第未来顺利量产才是最大的目标，如果明年能顺利量产，一切质疑自然会不攻自破。\n不过目前新能源汽车行业已经进入到了一个群雄逐鹿的时代，一方面来自特斯拉的打压；另一方面是国内造车新势力的崛起，国内传统车企不断推出高端新能源品牌，或将旗下新能源车品牌独立运营。再加上一众崭新“面孔”的纷纷涌入，使得新能源汽车市场的竞争已经异常激烈。\n如此看来，竞争激烈的市场状况下，如果FF91能够如期上市，也同样面临很大的压力。\nFF共发布五期股权激励计划\n尽管面临种种财务困顿，FF对于团队的股权激励仍然非常重视。在贾跃亭进行个人破产重组时，FF也表示未来仍将继续向员工提供基于股权的报酬激励。\n据老虎ESOP梳理，2015 年，FF实施了全员股权激励计划，许诺让股权激励真正覆盖全体员工。2018年重修计划，更名“2018 股权计划”，向员工、董事和顾问授予3亿A类普通股奖励。\n2019年5月2日，FF实施了短期激励计划，也叫做“STI方案”，向员工、董事和顾问授予最多1亿B类普通股的奖励。之后，为激励管理人员，贾跃亭参考阿里巴巴、咨询行业的合伙制度，通过FF GP以及其他三家中间控股公司实施了FF Intelligent 合伙计划，合伙人以0.50 美元的单价，认购FF GP 的股权。\n2020年，为了激励和奖励重组债务人实现法拉第集团的战略目标，FF采用管理层激励股权计划，该计划命名“未来股权激励计划”。\n2021年，FF通过了“2021年股权激励计划”，该计划将保留4957.36万股股份用于股权激励。\n总 结\n目前FF91量产在即，毕竟造车不易，梦想可贵，还是多给贾总一些耐心。至于未来FF91有什么优势，能否在竞争如此激烈的新能源汽车市场生存下去，我们拭目以待吧。\n本文数据来源于金融界、界面新闻、新浪财经等。\n本文来自微信公众号“老虎ESOP股权激励”（ID:TigerESOP），作者：董雯，36氪经授权发布。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}