飞飞xm的个人主页 - 老虎社区

飞飞xm

飞飞xm

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2021-08-12

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$目前持有4000股正股和20手8月20到期的call期权，请教问有没有比较懂的老师，看看如何操作合适，是把期权卖掉，还是说等到起以后怎么转化成正股，哪个更划算？

2021-01-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$请教下期权高手们，这个今天到期。是应该割肉卖掉，还是拿到收盘，还是把其他股卖掉钱腾出来，买入这个股票

2021-01-13

$理想汽车(LI)$蔚来1000多亿，小鹏400多亿，凭什么理想才300亿出头？这是什么逻辑？坚定持有，理想搞不过蔚来特斯拉，还搞不过小鹏吗？不服呀

2020-11-19

请教各位大神，这个期权是建议拿着等等还是要尽快割掉？

2020-11-14

$拼多多(PDD)$有没有对期权比较懂的高手，给个建议，这个该如何处理啊？

2020-11-09

$理想汽车(LI)$太弱啦，三剑客里面垫底了，加油啊

2020-09-20

大佬，有一些推荐的标的吗？

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>请教下期权高手们，这个今天到期。是应该割肉卖掉，还是拿到收盘，还是把其他股卖掉钱腾出来，买入这个股票","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>请教下期权高手们，这个今天到期。是应该割肉卖掉，还是拿到收盘，还是把其他股卖掉钱腾出来，买入这个股票","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$请教下期权高手们，这个今天到期。是应该割肉卖掉，还是拿到收盘，还是把其他股卖掉钱腾出来，买入这个股票","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33fd8c50a4c9cf35a7a48703fbd778bd","width":"1176","height":"202"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318030829","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3564541190297697","authorId":"3564541190297697","name":"诺维格","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9961245d4a2a382738a5d2dce4ba6a3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"880看样子是没人会行权的","text":"880看样子是没人会行权的","html":"880看样子是没人会行权的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335073380,"gmtCreate":1610497347240,"gmtModify":1703744761287,"author":{"id":"3558960546551387","authorId":"3558960546551387","name":"飞飞xm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7bef104b6610b07dc155222db56e2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>蔚来1000多亿，小鹏400多亿，凭什么理想才300亿出头？这是什么逻辑？坚定持有，理想搞不过蔚来特斯拉，还搞不过小鹏吗？不服呀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>蔚来1000多亿，小鹏400多亿，凭什么理想才300亿出头？这是什么逻辑？坚定持有，理想搞不过蔚来特斯拉，还搞不过小鹏吗？不服呀","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$蔚来1000多亿，小鹏400多亿，凭什么理想才300亿出头？这是什么逻辑？坚定持有，理想搞不过蔚来特斯拉，还搞不过小鹏吗？不服呀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335073380","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390121033,"gmtCreate":1605743415322,"gmtModify":1703839333926,"author":{"id":"3558960546551387","authorId":"3558960546551387","name":"飞飞xm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7bef104b6610b07dc155222db56e2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"请教各位大神，这个期权是建议拿着等等还是要尽快割掉？","listText":"请教各位大神，这个期权是建议拿着等等还是要尽快割掉？","text":"请教各位大神，这个期权是建议拿着等等还是要尽快割掉？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c99eac39d3d2443a2a851f616e31d564","width":"1176","height":"171"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390121033","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305828883,"gmtCreate":1604936460842,"gmtModify":1703835367477,"author":{"id":"3558960546551387","authorId":"3558960546551387","name":"飞飞xm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7bef104b6610b07dc155222db56e2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>太弱啦，三剑客里面垫底了，加油啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>太弱啦，三剑客里面垫底了，加油啊","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$太弱啦，三剑客里面垫底了，加油啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305828883","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975895041,"gmtCreate":1600611188783,"gmtModify":1703821914704,"author":{"id":"3558960546551387","authorId":"3558960546551387","name":"飞飞xm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7bef104b6610b07dc155222db56e2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大佬，有一些推荐的标的吗？","listText":"大佬，有一些推荐的标的吗？","text":"大佬，有一些推荐的标的吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975895041","repostId":"2068746477","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2068746477","pubTimestamp":1600584997,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2068746477?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-20 14:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"成本大降+密度暴增50%！特斯拉电池日提前看：真正的杀器","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2068746477","media":"雪球综合","summary":"原标题：成本大降+密度暴增50%！特斯拉电池日提前看：真正的杀器 来源：雪球综合转眼间来到九月，掐指一算特斯拉的电池日要来了。受疫情影响，今年特斯拉电池日从4月推到5月，又从5月推迟至7月，现在又称2","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：成本大降+密度暴增50%！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>电池日提前看：真正的杀器 来源：雪球综合</p><p>转眼间来到九月，掐指一算特斯拉的电池日要来了。受疫情影响，今年特斯拉电池日从4月推到5月，又从5月推迟至7月，现在又称2020年股东大会和电池日都将于9月22日举行，目前已经有股东晒出了特斯拉的邀请函。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/482/w752h530/20200920/d843-izmihnt5578984.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>接着马斯克上了实锤，发<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>表示9月22日的电池日上，会有令人兴奋的新东西。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/188/w752h236/20200920/7baa-izmihnt5578983.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>作为一个汽车编辑，除了职业所迫外，我关注特斯拉电池日的另一个原因是，我买了一堆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>、赣锋锂电之类的公司的股票。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/2/w500h302/20200920/7a17-izmihnt5579154.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>俗话说加州的特斯拉扇扇翅膀，国内的股市就一片风暴。2月底特斯拉发了个无钴电池的消息，搞得我股票第一天赚的昏天黑地，三天后赔的日月无光。</p><p>因此在电池日到来之前，我决定先复盘一下特斯拉近几个月的操作，猜猜电池日上到底会放什么大招，决定我是All in比亚迪或者宁德时代还是直接下车跑路。</p><p>对了，先跟大家说一句，股市有风险，投资需谨慎！</p><p>■ 百万英里电池疑云</p><p>据外媒Tesmanian8月22日的报道，本次“电池日”的核心议题是提高能量密度和降低成本，而Maxwell公司的干电极技术和百万英里计划则是此次活动的亮点。</p><p>我们权当这个消息是准确的，先看看所谓的“百万英里”电池，这东西就是字面意思，电池的使用寿命有望达到100万英里（约161万公里），比现在的电池寿命（40万-80万）提升1-3倍。</p><p>关于这个百万英里电池，现在网上的言论是，这个电池是宁德时代和特斯拉合作的，宁德时代董事长曾毓群表示，他们公司已经准备好生产百万英里电池。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/347/w752h395/20200920/5b10-izmihnt5579155.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>这么看来利好宁德时代啊，我是不是可以准备重仓宁德时代了？</p><p>但我总觉得哪里不对，特斯拉的所作所为总有一种“废物才靠供应商，老子独自美丽”的气派，预热这么久的百万英里电池，到头来依靠宁德时代，反正我是不大相信。</p><p>并且在去年百万英里电池刚曝光时，所有消息表示，这个电池是杰夫·戴恩（Jeff Dahn）及其团队与特斯拉合作研发的，随后特斯拉还申请了一项电池专利。</p><p>该专利明确表示，这个百万英里电池是三元锂电池（NCM532），据外媒报道，这种电池不使用较小的NCM晶体作阴极，而是使用较大的单晶体。研究人员表示，阴极材料的裂纹会降低电池的寿命和性能，但这种“单晶”纳米结构在电池充电时不太可能产生裂纹。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/375/w752h423/20200920/9b72-izmihnt5579266.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>▲ 该专利插入的图片</p><p>而特斯拉在3月发过一个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>，表示当时闹得沸沸扬扬的无钴电池不一定是磷酸铁锂，而按照之前工信部申报信息，特斯拉和宁德时代合作的似乎是磷酸铁锂电池。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/399/w640h559/20200920/330d-izmihnt5579267.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>我寻思了一下，全网不可能只有我一个人觉得宁德时代的百万英里电池和特斯拉的百万英里电池不是一个东西吧？于是我搜了搜，终于看见外媒一个老哥的看法跟我相似，也算是找到支持者了。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/106/w752h154/20200920/38e1-izmihnt5579329.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>因此，我更倾向于，特斯拉选择短时间内与宁德时代合作，推出磷酸铁锂电池的Model 3降成本；而未来会逐渐转为自己的“百万英里电池”。就像他们最初用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的芯片，现在转为自研的FSD一样。</p><p>■ 宁德时代是干电极技术的备胎？</p><p>Maxwell的干电池也不是什么突然冒出来的消息，2019年特斯拉收购了这家公司，有消息称，这家公司有三项核心技术——超级电容、干电极涂层技术、预锂化。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/319/w640h479/20200920/5797-izmihnt5579327.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>特斯拉是看上了人家的干电极技术，干电极(DBE)涂层技术比起传统工艺，省了涂布、极片烘干环节，下图是二者的对比：</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/385/w752h433/20200920/b127-izmihnt5579408.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>▲ 图片来自雪球</p><p>技术细节就不多聊了，直接上结果，在能量密度方面，干电极电芯的能量密度能到300 瓦时/千克 ，500瓦时/千克好像也在安排；成本方面，干电极相比湿电极可以将成本降低20%，同时在干燥设备投入、厂房占地面积上也有优势。</p><p>说白了，要是某个电池技术特别受宠，那么降本和提高能量密度这两点，它要么占一个要么两个都占了。显然干电极技术两个都占，怪不得特斯拉相中了它，这么看起来宁德时代是备胎啊！</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/240/w750h290/20200920/99a9-izmihnt5579407.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>综合各路传闻以及理论分析，干电极技术大概率会在电池日上公布了，来啊兄弟们一起冲一波干电极概念股！</p><p>■ 干电极也是备胎？？？</p><p>就在大家押宝干电极时，特斯拉又发布了一张电池日海报。这个迷惑的背景显然不是干电极技术，莫非特斯拉的真爱又换人了？</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/130/w640h290/20200920/c354-izmihnt5579505.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>万能的外媒替我们找到了点蛛丝马迹，只见他们先是将海报去掉文字，然后一套PS调色伺候，再Google一下，发现这好像是是一种叫做硅纳米线的材料。</p><p>这时候另一家公司浮出水面——Amprius。他们的独门绝技是硅纳米线，能取代传统电池的负极材料石墨。这么看来Maxwell的干电极也是备胎啊？</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/240/w750h290/20200920/7c8f-izmihnt5579504.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>其实硅做负极也不是新鲜玩意，硅的嵌锂容量是石墨的十几倍，但它在充放电过程中体积变化太大，导致硅电极的结构破坏，锂离子的脱嵌过程不能顺利进行，可以理解为能吃，但是消化不太好，肚子容易被撑爆。</p><p>Amprius的硅纳米线解决了这个问题，粗略的讲就是他们的硅是“线”，留出了足够的膨胀空间，因此不会把自己撑爆。据悉，这项技术能让电池能量密度提升50%。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/215/w640h375/20200920/d163-izmihnt5579568.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>随后我查了一下，这家公司居然在无锡，这要是将来能拿到特斯拉的单，物流费就能省下不少。</p><p>根据他们的官网显示，该公司的硅负极是世界上容量最髙的电池材料，这个“最高”用的都快违反广告法了，足见其自信。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/314/w752h362/20200920/77e9-izmihnt5579569.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>不过仔细想想，Maxwell主打的是正极技术，Amprius主打负极技术，说不定马斯克大手一挥，两个都要了。</p><p>这么看来，我觉得特斯拉电池日利好的其实是茅台。因为不管是特斯拉在国内选宁德时代还是Amprius，双方老板都要喝酒庆祝，茅台销量提升，四季度财报好看，股票会涨。因此我决定放弃电池股票，All in茅台。</p><p>■ 一切都是为了自己的电池</p><p>先不管特斯拉最终选择谁，特斯拉的最终目的都是自研自产电池，摆脱供应商的依赖。在自研电池上下了这么多苦工后，生产也得跟上。</p><p>年初，国外媒体Electrek报道，特斯拉内部出现了一个名为“Roadrunner”的秘密项目，准备大规模生产成本更低的电动汽车电池。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/112/w752h160/20200920/a8aa-izmihnt5579638.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>▲ 外媒拍摄的特斯拉Tera电池工厂</p><p>除此之外，特斯拉还收购了一家Hibar Systems公司，主营电池制造，手上有个大招叫“高速锂离子电池制造系统”。</p><p>■ 新电池是饼干盒？</p><p>9月17日，有外媒爆料特斯拉新电池的图片，从图上来看，它明显比之前的21700电池粗上几圈，因此带电量更大。据了解，它使用Roadrunner系统生产，有望将动力电池成本降至100美元/千瓦时（约合人民币677元/千瓦时）。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020920/310/w600h510/20200920/deba-izmihnt5579646.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>因此，目前特斯拉手上至少握着“提高能量密度”、“降成本”、“大规模量产”三门高射炮，要是几年内能量产装车，估计又够国内新能源厂商们喝一壶的了。</p><p>最后，因为特斯拉不按常理出牌惯了，我们也不做过多的猜测，一切疑问静待9月22日电池日上由马斯克亲自解答吧！说不定就会有什么“革了整个行业的命”的大招出现呢！</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>成本大降+密度暴增50%！特斯拉电池日提前看：真正的杀器</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n成本大降+密度暴增50%！特斯拉电池日提前看：真正的杀器\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-20 14:56 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-09-20/doc-iivhvpwy7789251.shtml><strong>雪球综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：成本大降+密度暴增50%！特斯拉电池日提前看：真正的杀器 来源：雪球综合转眼间来到九月，掐指一算特斯拉的电池日要来了。受疫情影响，今年特斯拉电池日从4月推到5月，又从5月推迟至7月，现在又称2020年股东大会和电池日都将于9月22日举行，目前已经有股东晒出了特斯拉的邀请函。接着马斯克上了实锤，发微博表示9月22日的电池日上，会有令人兴奋的新东西。作为一个汽车编辑，除了职业所迫外，我关注...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-09-20/doc-iivhvpwy7789251.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4a82a0b3d2d5a95ba411e9bab3f4d9","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-09-20/doc-iivhvpwy7789251.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2068746477","content_text":"原标题：成本大降+密度暴增50%！特斯拉电池日提前看：真正的杀器 来源：雪球综合转眼间来到九月，掐指一算特斯拉的电池日要来了。受疫情影响，今年特斯拉电池日从4月推到5月，又从5月推迟至7月，现在又称2020年股东大会和电池日都将于9月22日举行，目前已经有股东晒出了特斯拉的邀请函。接着马斯克上了实锤，发微博表示9月22日的电池日上，会有令人兴奋的新东西。作为一个汽车编辑，除了职业所迫外，我关注特斯拉电池日的另一个原因是，我买了一堆比亚迪、宁德时代、赣锋锂电之类的公司的股票。俗话说加州的特斯拉扇扇翅膀，国内的股市就一片风暴。2月底特斯拉发了个无钴电池的消息，搞得我股票第一天赚的昏天黑地，三天后赔的日月无光。因此在电池日到来之前，我决定先复盘一下特斯拉近几个月的操作，猜猜电池日上到底会放什么大招，决定我是All in比亚迪或者宁德时代还是直接下车跑路。对了，先跟大家说一句，股市有风险，投资需谨慎！■ 百万英里电池疑云据外媒Tesmanian8月22日的报道，本次“电池日”的核心议题是提高能量密度和降低成本，而Maxwell公司的干电极技术和百万英里计划则是此次活动的亮点。我们权当这个消息是准确的，先看看所谓的“百万英里”电池，这东西就是字面意思，电池的使用寿命有望达到100万英里（约161万公里），比现在的电池寿命（40万-80万）提升1-3倍。关于这个百万英里电池，现在网上的言论是，这个电池是宁德时代和特斯拉合作的，宁德时代董事长曾毓群表示，他们公司已经准备好生产百万英里电池。这么看来利好宁德时代啊，我是不是可以准备重仓宁德时代了？但我总觉得哪里不对，特斯拉的所作所为总有一种“废物才靠供应商，老子独自美丽”的气派，预热这么久的百万英里电池，到头来依靠宁德时代，反正我是不大相信。并且在去年百万英里电池刚曝光时，所有消息表示，这个电池是杰夫·戴恩（Jeff Dahn）及其团队与特斯拉合作研发的，随后特斯拉还申请了一项电池专利。该专利明确表示，这个百万英里电池是三元锂电池（NCM532），据外媒报道，这种电池不使用较小的NCM晶体作阴极，而是使用较大的单晶体。研究人员表示，阴极材料的裂纹会降低电池的寿命和性能，但这种“单晶”纳米结构在电池充电时不太可能产生裂纹。▲ 该专利插入的图片而特斯拉在3月发过一个抖音，表示当时闹得沸沸扬扬的无钴电池不一定是磷酸铁锂，而按照之前工信部申报信息，特斯拉和宁德时代合作的似乎是磷酸铁锂电池。我寻思了一下，全网不可能只有我一个人觉得宁德时代的百万英里电池和特斯拉的百万英里电池不是一个东西吧？于是我搜了搜，终于看见外媒一个老哥的看法跟我相似，也算是找到支持者了。因此，我更倾向于，特斯拉选择短时间内与宁德时代合作，推出磷酸铁锂电池的Model 3降成本；而未来会逐渐转为自己的“百万英里电池”。就像他们最初用英伟达的芯片，现在转为自研的FSD一样。■ 宁德时代是干电极技术的备胎？Maxwell的干电池也不是什么突然冒出来的消息，2019年特斯拉收购了这家公司，有消息称，这家公司有三项核心技术——超级电容、干电极涂层技术、预锂化。特斯拉是看上了人家的干电极技术，干电极(DBE)涂层技术比起传统工艺，省了涂布、极片烘干环节，下图是二者的对比：▲ 图片来自雪球技术细节就不多聊了，直接上结果，在能量密度方面，干电极电芯的能量密度能到300 瓦时/千克 ，500瓦时/千克好像也在安排；成本方面，干电极相比湿电极可以将成本降低20%，同时在干燥设备投入、厂房占地面积上也有优势。说白了，要是某个电池技术特别受宠，那么降本和提高能量密度这两点，它要么占一个要么两个都占了。显然干电极技术两个都占，怪不得特斯拉相中了它，这么看起来宁德时代是备胎啊！综合各路传闻以及理论分析，干电极技术大概率会在电池日上公布了，来啊兄弟们一起冲一波干电极概念股！■ 干电极也是备胎？？？就在大家押宝干电极时，特斯拉又发布了一张电池日海报。这个迷惑的背景显然不是干电极技术，莫非特斯拉的真爱又换人了？万能的外媒替我们找到了点蛛丝马迹，只见他们先是将海报去掉文字，然后一套PS调色伺候，再Google一下，发现这好像是是一种叫做硅纳米线的材料。这时候另一家公司浮出水面——Amprius。他们的独门绝技是硅纳米线，能取代传统电池的负极材料石墨。这么看来Maxwell的干电极也是备胎啊？其实硅做负极也不是新鲜玩意，硅的嵌锂容量是石墨的十几倍，但它在充放电过程中体积变化太大，导致硅电极的结构破坏，锂离子的脱嵌过程不能顺利进行，可以理解为能吃，但是消化不太好，肚子容易被撑爆。Amprius的硅纳米线解决了这个问题，粗略的讲就是他们的硅是“线”，留出了足够的膨胀空间，因此不会把自己撑爆。据悉，这项技术能让电池能量密度提升50%。随后我查了一下，这家公司居然在无锡，这要是将来能拿到特斯拉的单，物流费就能省下不少。根据他们的官网显示，该公司的硅负极是世界上容量最髙的电池材料，这个“最高”用的都快违反广告法了，足见其自信。不过仔细想想，Maxwell主打的是正极技术，Amprius主打负极技术，说不定马斯克大手一挥，两个都要了。这么看来，我觉得特斯拉电池日利好的其实是茅台。因为不管是特斯拉在国内选宁德时代还是Amprius，双方老板都要喝酒庆祝，茅台销量提升，四季度财报好看，股票会涨。因此我决定放弃电池股票，All in茅台。■ 一切都是为了自己的电池先不管特斯拉最终选择谁，特斯拉的最终目的都是自研自产电池，摆脱供应商的依赖。在自研电池上下了这么多苦工后，生产也得跟上。年初，国外媒体Electrek报道，特斯拉内部出现了一个名为“Roadrunner”的秘密项目，准备大规模生产成本更低的电动汽车电池。▲ 外媒拍摄的特斯拉Tera电池工厂除此之外，特斯拉还收购了一家Hibar Systems公司，主营电池制造，手上有个大招叫“高速锂离子电池制造系统”。■ 新电池是饼干盒？9月17日，有外媒爆料特斯拉新电池的图片，从图上来看，它明显比之前的21700电池粗上几圈，因此带电量更大。据了解，它使用Roadrunner系统生产，有望将动力电池成本降至100美元/千瓦时（约合人民币677元/千瓦时）。因此，目前特斯拉手上至少握着“提高能量密度”、“降成本”、“大规模量产”三门高射炮，要是几年内能量产装车，估计又够国内新能源厂商们喝一壶的了。最后，因为特斯拉不按常理出牌惯了，我们也不做过多的猜测，一切疑问静待9月22日电池日上由马斯克亲自解答吧！说不定就会有什么“革了整个行业的命”的大招出现呢！","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}