石头烟斗的个人主页 - 老虎社区

石头烟斗

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IP属地：北京

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2021-02-19

卖给谁了

华泰瑞银以451万港元出售2000股百度股份

2021-02-19

都跌成这样了，能不能说点新鲜的？

从Q4财报分析成长空间，300美元的百度贵不贵?

2021-02-17

$百度(BIDU)$问个初级的问题，百度什么时候分红啊？

2021-01-16

$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$ 庄家不敢出货了，停在32

2021-01-16

$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$ 估计奔30去了

2021-01-15

$医渡科技(02158)$左手进右手

2021-01-08

$国药控股(01099)$这么低的市盈率，疫苗也上市了，为什么不涨反跌呢？

2021-01-07

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$这股票苦难的兄弟太多，太难搞了[捂脸] 庄家应该去搞【小白买买】社交电商，没这么大体量，一搞就翻倍[笑哭]

2021-01-07

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$大家伙看看图吧，庄家

2021-01-07

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$庄家是不早几天就进来了呢？不会今天刚进吧

2021-01-07

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$我怎么觉得该跑的已经跑了

2020-08-31

$和信贷(HX)$我试用过小白买买，能直接链接淘宝和京东，价格和淘宝一样，还有一点奖励，挺好。

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href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/hks/20210219/c627089665.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e69a813fc188c558d2666dadd29b6a","relate_stocks":{"08006":"华泰瑞银","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/hks/20210219/c627089665.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f0343184bd9b9c963ed02b302442e2b8","article_id":"2112681072","content_text":"华泰瑞银(08006)发布公告，于2021年2月19日，集团于公开市场以总代价约451万港元(不包括印花税及相出售合共2000股关开支)出售合共2000股Baidu,Inc.股份(BIDU.US)。\n关注同花顺财经（ths518），获取更多机会","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384493022,"gmtCreate":1613664182566,"gmtModify":1613664182566,"author":{"id":"3558442373121337","authorId":"3558442373121337","name":"石头烟斗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"都跌成这样了，能不能说点新鲜的？","listText":"都跌成这样了，能不能说点新鲜的？","text":"都跌成这样了，能不能说点新鲜的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384493022","repostId":"1167608539","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167608539","pubTimestamp":1613643428,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167608539?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-18 18:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从Q4财报分析成长空间，300美元的百度贵不贵?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167608539","media":"智通财经","summary":"这是百度的正常价值回归，还是科技股的整体情绪泡沫？","content":"<p>作者：杨世宏</p>\n<p>时隔两年八个月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>股价以326.5美元创历史新高，总市值跨过千亿美元大关。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/468d622673cda99368cac80384637667\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>详细来看，从2020年12月份开始，在不到三个月的时间内，百度股价从130.06美元涨至326.5美元，涨幅近150%。短期内股价的大幅上涨让投资者疑惑，这是百度的正常价值回归，还是科技股的整体情绪泡沫？是造车的短期利好拉动，还是百度真的找到了自己的增长曲线？</p>\n<p>AI赋能下的移动生态业务固守基本盘</p>\n<p>事实上，移动生态业务是使百度价值在二级市场中长期低估的关键原因，这不仅包括业务调整+广告行业低迷的双重利空影响，亦是市场对今日头条及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>发力搜索业务或会蚕食百度移动生态业务的担忧。</p>\n<p>但时间给出了答案，在展现出移动生态业务的稳健后，市场用股价创历史新高的方式完成了对百度错误认知的纠偏。</p>\n<p>移动生态业务作为百度的基本盘，表现依然坚挺且多元变现能力增强。得益于百家号、小程序、托管页三大支柱产品的发展，AI赋能下的移动生态业务在用户、商业化效率两大关键的指标上表现出了较强韧性。</p>\n<p>用户方面，2020年12月，百度App月活跃用户数达5.44亿，日登录用户占比超70%，同比提升18个百分点。商业化方面，百度2020年第四季度核心在线营销业务的收入为189亿元，与2019年同期持平。</p>\n<p>可见，即使市场竞争有所加剧，但AI赋能下的移动生态业务仍稳健发展，百度固守搜索基本盘无虞。后续，百度将拓宽平台场景，纵深发展，持续深耕直播、电商、健康等垂直领域，加深行业渗透力度。移动生态业务将继续以一个“现金奶牛”的定位持续哺育百度的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云、自动驾驶等新兴业务。</p>\n<p>智能云以差异化优势高速发展 构筑第二增长曲线</p>\n<p>若说移动互联网已步入产业后期，云服务却是国内未来十年的黄金赛道。据中商产业研究院数据显示，从2020年至2024年的5年间，国内云服务的市场规模将从1770亿元增至3756亿元，年复合增速超20%。</p>\n<p>不过，该市场中的玩家并不少，阿里、腾讯、华为等巨头均在云计算行业有所布局，百度如何在群雄割据的市场中分一杯羹仍是投资者关注的重点。</p>\n<p>在财报中，百度给出了答案。百度智能云增长进入快车道，2020年第三季度，百度AI云收入为人民币22亿元，同比增长41%;至第四季度时，百度智能云增速大幅提升至67%，其年化收入约130亿元。</p>\n<p>收入持续高增长的背后，得益于百度结合自身优势的差异化竞争。智通财经App了解到，百度智能云服务于to B(企业上云)、to C(个人云存储)和to G(如智能交通等)三个层面的目标用户，而差异化主要体现在由算法、算力、开放开源等构成的领先AI能力。</p>\n<p>作为百度AI多年技术积累和产业实践的集大成者，百度大脑核心技术持续保持领先，随着6.0版本的推出，“软硬一体AI大生产平台”的部署不断夯实。</p>\n<p>而专利便是实力的最好体现。目前，在AI专利方面，百度连续三年在人工智能领域总申请量、授权量上蝉联第一。且据全球知名咨询机构IDC发布的《中国人工智能云服务市场研究报告(2020H1)》数据显示，在中国AI公有云服务市场，百度智能云市场份额排名第一位，这是百度智能云连续三次在AI Cloud市场中排名第一。</p>\n<p>市场份额名列前茅的背后，是百度凭借领先的AI技术实现了智能云的商业化提速。以8月份Apollo中标广州4.6亿元新基建项目为例，该项目或是2020年国内智能交通领域的最大订单。</p>\n<p>据悉，该项目将采用百度推出的被称为国内外第一个车路行融合的全栈式智能交通解决方案“ACE交通引擎”。目前，该解决方案已在北京、长沙、重庆、保定等近20座城市落地实践，有望成为中国特色智能交通建设的最优解。</p>\n<p>除智能交通外，百度表示将在智慧金融、智慧城市、智能制造、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600869\">智慧能源</a>等百度智能云擅长的重要赛道中加速扩张，以领先的AI能力深度挖掘云服务发展的行业红利。</p>\n<p>行业前沿业务加速落地 第三长期增长曲线可期</p>\n<p>在引领行业的前沿业务方面，Apollo、小度智能助手等AI新业务渐入佳境，展现出在行业中的领袖气质。</p>\n<p>财报显示，百度智能驾驶技术上取得了突破性进展，同时智能驾驶商业化路径愈加清晰。自2013年开始，百度便布局自动驾驶，并于2017年推出了全球首个自动驾驶开放平台Apollo。截至目前，Apollo已成为全球最大自动驾驶开放平台和生态，代表了中国最强的自动驾驶实力，其超过十项指标位列中国第一，技术实力领跑行业。，百度智能驾驶技术上取得了突破性进展。无人驾驶路测方面，继获得全国首个无人化(第一阶段)测试许可后，Apollo又斩获加州全无人驾驶测试许可，成为行业中唯一同时获得中美此类许可的中国公司。截至2020年12月，百度在中国累计获得测试许可已达199张。此外，据《北京市自动驾驶车辆道路测试报告(2020)》，百度取得测试车辆数、测试里程数双料三连冠。</p>\n<p>在知名研究机构Navigant Research发布的最新自动驾驶竞争力榜单中，2020年唯一上榜的中国玩家百度Apollo排名再次跃升，首次挺进Navigant Research报告国际自动驾驶“领导者”行列，体现了海外机构亦对百度的自动驾驶表现出高度认可。</p>\n<p>技术保持领先的同时，智能驾驶商业化路径愈加清晰。乘用车自动驾驶服务方面，Apollo自动驾驶开放平台发展势头正劲，目前已与10家中国及全球车企达成战略合作，通过高精地图、自主泊车等汽车智能化解决方案赋能合作伙伴。此外，ANP领航辅助驾驶解决方案也开始商业化落地。在自动驾驶乘车服务方面，截至2020年12月，Apollo Robotaxi及Robobus已接待乘客超21万。</p>\n<p>要知道，全球唯一一个在多城开展Robotaxi与Robobus出行运营服务的便是Apollo Go，且百度自动驾驶的核心能力在不断升级和更新，而每一次迭代都能使成本下降，目前已是第五代，若成本降低到一个阈值，便可触发Apollo Go在Robotaxi运营上的规模化，届时，百度自动驾驶的商业化将加速爆发。</p>\n<p>在自动驾驶之外，小度助手亦处于行业前沿。据市场研究机构Canalys 的数据显示，2020年上半年，小度智能音箱全品类出货量中国第一，也是自2019年至今累计出货量全国第一，领先优势明显。</p>\n<p>而小度科技完成独立融资绝对是百度智能语音发展进程中的标志性事件，融资完成后，小度科技投后估值已上升至约200亿元，提升了百度的总体估值。</p>\n<p>在2020年中，“破圈”成为了小度的关键词，且成效显著。12月，小度助手月语音交互总次数达62亿次，小度助手第一方硬件设备月语音交互次数达37亿次，比去年同期增长66%。语音助手作为人工智能时代的重要流量入口之一，百度凭借小度已占据有利位置。</p>\n<p>如何给百度估值?</p>\n<p>对于百度这样的平台型巨头而言，单一的估值方式难以刻画企业的真实价值，越来越多的机构和券商认可对百度采取分部估值法，即对各业务采用合理的估值方式，然后进行各分部业务估值的汇总后折价便是百度的真实价值。</p>\n<p>在移动核心广告业务中，由于行业进入成熟期，采用PE估值法较为合适，鉴于行业环境的压力，15倍PE相对合理。2021年，随着国内经济的大幅反弹，广告行业也将随之复苏，保守预计今年百度的核心广告收入较2019年将有5%的增长，参考该业务的历史利润，给予35%的利润率，则2021年核心广告业务的估值约3858亿元。</p>\n<p>而智能云目前处于成长阶段，收入高速增长，适用PS估值法。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00227\">第一上海</a>证券测算，百度2020年的云收入约在85亿元，若预计2021年该业务仍将以30%以上的增速保持高增长，参考云服务企业10倍PS打底的估值方式，百度智能云2021年的保守估值为1105亿人民币。</p>\n<p>而小度助手仍处于发展早期，融资估值法较为合适。2020年9月30日，在完成独立融资后，小度的估值已升至200亿元。</p>\n<p>Apollo亦处于发展早期，且并无独立融资，但有可对比估值标的，采用可比估值法也能刻画其价值。作为参照，通用旗下自动驾驶品牌Cruise的估值高达300亿美金，但其测试里程、测试牌照、测试车队规模均落后于Apollo，瑞穗已给Apollo 400亿美金的估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2748ec60d2a9ab54f59349606c26fb68\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"182\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>最后，直接计算百度持有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、携程相应市值以及在手现金，分别为110亿美元、27亿美元、250亿美元，则上述各分部合计市值为1582亿美元(汇率以1：6.5计算)。由于上述业务并非全部独立，对分部总市值打九折亦是合理，则对应的百度2021年的真实价值超1400亿美元。</p>\n<p>当然，这只是对百度短期内价值的估测，若以长远的产业发展眼光来看，随着智能驾驶、智能语音的加速落地，技术领先且优势明显的百度将逐渐过渡到估值重构的新阶段。</p>\n<p>对比更能看出想象空间。在消费电子领域，智能机是跨时代的产品，诞生出了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>这样两万亿美金市值的超级公司;而智能汽车亦是汽车行业的跨时代产品，且全球汽车行业的规模数倍于手机市场，诞生万亿美金级的智能汽车公司是必然事件。目前，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>距离这一目标仍有近30%的距离。那么在国内市场中，谁最有可能成为智能汽车的NO.1?</p>\n<p>虽然在国内智能汽车市场中，除了特斯拉、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、理想、小鹏等新兴互联网造车势力外，传统车企亦杀入智能汽车市场，华为欲从中分羹，可谓是群雄逐鹿。但从技术储备及业务布局来看，百度Apollo有望问鼎行业前列的实力，且在年初，百度宣布与吉利强强合作，组建智能汽车公司，这是百度向智能汽车商业化的挺进，有望为自身的中期成长打开空间。</p>\n<p>ARK牛市女皇Cathie Wood也表达了相似的观点，其在接受Yahoo财经采访时直言：“百度可能是电动车的下一个赢家”。她预计全球电动车市场规模到2025年将从220万台销量扩大到4000万台，美国的智能汽车市场将仍以特斯拉为主，而在中国市场中，其对百度有信心。</p>\n<p>当然，Cathie Wood也用真金白银表明了自己的言行一致，目前，百度是ARK基金前十大重仓股中唯一中概股，更是旗下ARKQ基金持仓排名第二位的重仓股，ARK总持仓百度金额超10亿美金。</p>\n<p>拉长视角，从产业发展角度看，站在技术制高点的百度，有望凭借领先优势拿下国内智能驾驶的行业红利，1000亿美金市值只是百度的新起点。</p>\n<p>而2020年第四季度时，百度再以超预期的业绩确认了业务拐点。据2月18日发布的2020年第四季度财报显示，在报告期内，百度实现营收303亿元，非GAAP下的净利润为69亿元，连续四个季度超预期。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，百度回港二次上市已提上日程，其除了可从市场中募集资金加速自身发展以扩大优势外，还将凭借领先的技术成为港股市场中AI硬科技的优质稀缺标的。届时，百度将是港股被动指数基金以及AI产业投资资金难以忽略的存在，长期资金对于百度的配置将推升其股价表现。且在汽车发展电动化、智能化、联网化的不可逆大趋势，百度当前创历史新高的股价大概率只是未来3~5年股价走势的起点。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从Q4财报分析成长空间，300美元的百度贵不贵?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从Q4财报分析成长空间，300美元的百度贵不贵?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-18 18:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/412973.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：杨世宏\n时隔两年八个月，百度股价以326.5美元创历史新高，总市值跨过千亿美元大关。\n\n详细来看，从2020年12月份开始，在不到三个月的时间内，百度股价从130.06美元涨至326.5美元，涨幅近150%。短期内股价的大幅上涨让投资者疑惑，这是百度的正常价值回归，还是科技股的整体情绪泡沫？是造车的短期利好拉动，还是百度真的找到了自己的增长曲线？\nAI赋能下的移动生态业务固守基本盘\n事实上，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/412973.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/620fa6b7643be76ed489cf4a9bb97db7","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/412973.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1167608539","content_text":"作者：杨世宏\n时隔两年八个月，百度股价以326.5美元创历史新高，总市值跨过千亿美元大关。\n\n详细来看，从2020年12月份开始，在不到三个月的时间内，百度股价从130.06美元涨至326.5美元，涨幅近150%。短期内股价的大幅上涨让投资者疑惑，这是百度的正常价值回归，还是科技股的整体情绪泡沫？是造车的短期利好拉动，还是百度真的找到了自己的增长曲线？\nAI赋能下的移动生态业务固守基本盘\n事实上，移动生态业务是使百度价值在二级市场中长期低估的关键原因，这不仅包括业务调整+广告行业低迷的双重利空影响，亦是市场对今日头条及腾讯发力搜索业务或会蚕食百度移动生态业务的担忧。\n但时间给出了答案，在展现出移动生态业务的稳健后，市场用股价创历史新高的方式完成了对百度错误认知的纠偏。\n移动生态业务作为百度的基本盘，表现依然坚挺且多元变现能力增强。得益于百家号、小程序、托管页三大支柱产品的发展，AI赋能下的移动生态业务在用户、商业化效率两大关键的指标上表现出了较强韧性。\n用户方面，2020年12月，百度App月活跃用户数达5.44亿，日登录用户占比超70%，同比提升18个百分点。商业化方面，百度2020年第四季度核心在线营销业务的收入为189亿元，与2019年同期持平。\n可见，即使市场竞争有所加剧，但AI赋能下的移动生态业务仍稳健发展，百度固守搜索基本盘无虞。后续，百度将拓宽平台场景，纵深发展，持续深耕直播、电商、健康等垂直领域，加深行业渗透力度。移动生态业务将继续以一个“现金奶牛”的定位持续哺育百度的智能云、自动驾驶等新兴业务。\n智能云以差异化优势高速发展 构筑第二增长曲线\n若说移动互联网已步入产业后期，云服务却是国内未来十年的黄金赛道。据中商产业研究院数据显示，从2020年至2024年的5年间，国内云服务的市场规模将从1770亿元增至3756亿元，年复合增速超20%。\n不过，该市场中的玩家并不少，阿里、腾讯、华为等巨头均在云计算行业有所布局，百度如何在群雄割据的市场中分一杯羹仍是投资者关注的重点。\n在财报中，百度给出了答案。百度智能云增长进入快车道，2020年第三季度，百度AI云收入为人民币22亿元，同比增长41%;至第四季度时，百度智能云增速大幅提升至67%，其年化收入约130亿元。\n收入持续高增长的背后，得益于百度结合自身优势的差异化竞争。智通财经App了解到，百度智能云服务于to B(企业上云)、to C(个人云存储)和to G(如智能交通等)三个层面的目标用户，而差异化主要体现在由算法、算力、开放开源等构成的领先AI能力。\n作为百度AI多年技术积累和产业实践的集大成者，百度大脑核心技术持续保持领先，随着6.0版本的推出，“软硬一体AI大生产平台”的部署不断夯实。\n而专利便是实力的最好体现。目前，在AI专利方面，百度连续三年在人工智能领域总申请量、授权量上蝉联第一。且据全球知名咨询机构IDC发布的《中国人工智能云服务市场研究报告(2020H1)》数据显示，在中国AI公有云服务市场，百度智能云市场份额排名第一位，这是百度智能云连续三次在AI Cloud市场中排名第一。\n市场份额名列前茅的背后，是百度凭借领先的AI技术实现了智能云的商业化提速。以8月份Apollo中标广州4.6亿元新基建项目为例，该项目或是2020年国内智能交通领域的最大订单。\n据悉，该项目将采用百度推出的被称为国内外第一个车路行融合的全栈式智能交通解决方案“ACE交通引擎”。目前，该解决方案已在北京、长沙、重庆、保定等近20座城市落地实践，有望成为中国特色智能交通建设的最优解。\n除智能交通外，百度表示将在智慧金融、智慧城市、智能制造、智慧能源等百度智能云擅长的重要赛道中加速扩张，以领先的AI能力深度挖掘云服务发展的行业红利。\n行业前沿业务加速落地 第三长期增长曲线可期\n在引领行业的前沿业务方面，Apollo、小度智能助手等AI新业务渐入佳境，展现出在行业中的领袖气质。\n财报显示，百度智能驾驶技术上取得了突破性进展，同时智能驾驶商业化路径愈加清晰。自2013年开始，百度便布局自动驾驶，并于2017年推出了全球首个自动驾驶开放平台Apollo。截至目前，Apollo已成为全球最大自动驾驶开放平台和生态，代表了中国最强的自动驾驶实力，其超过十项指标位列中国第一，技术实力领跑行业。，百度智能驾驶技术上取得了突破性进展。无人驾驶路测方面，继获得全国首个无人化(第一阶段)测试许可后，Apollo又斩获加州全无人驾驶测试许可，成为行业中唯一同时获得中美此类许可的中国公司。截至2020年12月，百度在中国累计获得测试许可已达199张。此外，据《北京市自动驾驶车辆道路测试报告(2020)》，百度取得测试车辆数、测试里程数双料三连冠。\n在知名研究机构Navigant Research发布的最新自动驾驶竞争力榜单中，2020年唯一上榜的中国玩家百度Apollo排名再次跃升，首次挺进Navigant Research报告国际自动驾驶“领导者”行列，体现了海外机构亦对百度的自动驾驶表现出高度认可。\n技术保持领先的同时，智能驾驶商业化路径愈加清晰。乘用车自动驾驶服务方面，Apollo自动驾驶开放平台发展势头正劲，目前已与10家中国及全球车企达成战略合作，通过高精地图、自主泊车等汽车智能化解决方案赋能合作伙伴。此外，ANP领航辅助驾驶解决方案也开始商业化落地。在自动驾驶乘车服务方面，截至2020年12月，Apollo Robotaxi及Robobus已接待乘客超21万。\n要知道，全球唯一一个在多城开展Robotaxi与Robobus出行运营服务的便是Apollo Go，且百度自动驾驶的核心能力在不断升级和更新，而每一次迭代都能使成本下降，目前已是第五代，若成本降低到一个阈值，便可触发Apollo Go在Robotaxi运营上的规模化，届时，百度自动驾驶的商业化将加速爆发。\n在自动驾驶之外，小度助手亦处于行业前沿。据市场研究机构Canalys 的数据显示，2020年上半年，小度智能音箱全品类出货量中国第一，也是自2019年至今累计出货量全国第一，领先优势明显。\n而小度科技完成独立融资绝对是百度智能语音发展进程中的标志性事件，融资完成后，小度科技投后估值已上升至约200亿元，提升了百度的总体估值。\n在2020年中，“破圈”成为了小度的关键词，且成效显著。12月，小度助手月语音交互总次数达62亿次，小度助手第一方硬件设备月语音交互次数达37亿次，比去年同期增长66%。语音助手作为人工智能时代的重要流量入口之一，百度凭借小度已占据有利位置。\n如何给百度估值?\n对于百度这样的平台型巨头而言，单一的估值方式难以刻画企业的真实价值，越来越多的机构和券商认可对百度采取分部估值法，即对各业务采用合理的估值方式，然后进行各分部业务估值的汇总后折价便是百度的真实价值。\n在移动核心广告业务中，由于行业进入成熟期，采用PE估值法较为合适，鉴于行业环境的压力，15倍PE相对合理。2021年，随着国内经济的大幅反弹，广告行业也将随之复苏，保守预计今年百度的核心广告收入较2019年将有5%的增长，参考该业务的历史利润，给予35%的利润率，则2021年核心广告业务的估值约3858亿元。\n而智能云目前处于成长阶段，收入高速增长，适用PS估值法。据第一上海证券测算，百度2020年的云收入约在85亿元，若预计2021年该业务仍将以30%以上的增速保持高增长，参考云服务企业10倍PS打底的估值方式，百度智能云2021年的保守估值为1105亿人民币。\n而小度助手仍处于发展早期，融资估值法较为合适。2020年9月30日，在完成独立融资后，小度的估值已升至200亿元。\nApollo亦处于发展早期，且并无独立融资，但有可对比估值标的，采用可比估值法也能刻画其价值。作为参照，通用旗下自动驾驶品牌Cruise的估值高达300亿美金，但其测试里程、测试牌照、测试车队规模均落后于Apollo，瑞穗已给Apollo 400亿美金的估值。\n\n最后，直接计算百度持有的爱奇艺、携程相应市值以及在手现金，分别为110亿美元、27亿美元、250亿美元，则上述各分部合计市值为1582亿美元(汇率以1：6.5计算)。由于上述业务并非全部独立，对分部总市值打九折亦是合理，则对应的百度2021年的真实价值超1400亿美元。\n当然，这只是对百度短期内价值的估测，若以长远的产业发展眼光来看，随着智能驾驶、智能语音的加速落地，技术领先且优势明显的百度将逐渐过渡到估值重构的新阶段。\n对比更能看出想象空间。在消费电子领域，智能机是跨时代的产品，诞生出了苹果这样两万亿美金市值的超级公司;而智能汽车亦是汽车行业的跨时代产品，且全球汽车行业的规模数倍于手机市场，诞生万亿美金级的智能汽车公司是必然事件。目前，特斯拉距离这一目标仍有近30%的距离。那么在国内市场中，谁最有可能成为智能汽车的NO.1?\n虽然在国内智能汽车市场中，除了特斯拉、蔚来、理想、小鹏等新兴互联网造车势力外，传统车企亦杀入智能汽车市场，华为欲从中分羹，可谓是群雄逐鹿。但从技术储备及业务布局来看，百度Apollo有望问鼎行业前列的实力，且在年初，百度宣布与吉利强强合作，组建智能汽车公司，这是百度向智能汽车商业化的挺进，有望为自身的中期成长打开空间。\nARK牛市女皇Cathie Wood也表达了相似的观点，其在接受Yahoo财经采访时直言：“百度可能是电动车的下一个赢家”。她预计全球电动车市场规模到2025年将从220万台销量扩大到4000万台，美国的智能汽车市场将仍以特斯拉为主，而在中国市场中，其对百度有信心。\n当然，Cathie Wood也用真金白银表明了自己的言行一致，目前，百度是ARK基金前十大重仓股中唯一中概股，更是旗下ARKQ基金持仓排名第二位的重仓股，ARK总持仓百度金额超10亿美金。\n拉长视角，从产业发展角度看，站在技术制高点的百度，有望凭借领先优势拿下国内智能驾驶的行业红利，1000亿美金市值只是百度的新起点。\n而2020年第四季度时，百度再以超预期的业绩确认了业务拐点。据2月18日发布的2020年第四季度财报显示，在报告期内，百度实现营收303亿元，非GAAP下的净利润为69亿元，连续四个季度超预期。\n值得注意的是，百度回港二次上市已提上日程，其除了可从市场中募集资金加速自身发展以扩大优势外，还将凭借领先的技术成为港股市场中AI硬科技的优质稀缺标的。届时，百度将是港股被动指数基金以及AI产业投资资金难以忽略的存在，长期资金对于百度的配置将推升其股价表现。且在汽车发展电动化、智能化、联网化的不可逆大趋势，百度当前创历史新高的股价大概率只是未来3~5年股价走势的起点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385995195,"gmtCreate":1613491967817,"gmtModify":1613491967817,"author":{"id":"3558442373121337","authorId":"3558442373121337","name":"石头烟斗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>问个初级的问题，百度什么时候分红啊？","listText":"<a 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